Tumgik
#this is the highest following count i have ever earned ;; none of my old accounts earned this much followers :']]
sweeeet-n-stuff · 1 year
Text
WAIT WAIT WAITTT
THANK YOU GUYS SO MUCH FOR 300+ FOLLOWERS TF ?!?! HOW DID THIS HAPPEN ;; I'M HAVEN'T EVEN POSTED ART FOR MONTHS NOW ??? THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU EVERYONE I LOVE Y'ALL SO MUCH 😭💕💕💕
Tumblr media
21 notes · View notes
smokeybrand · 3 years
Text
Sabotage
I was today years old when i found out that, back before the Seventies, every high school taught a skilled craft. Like, you could learn to be an electrician, plumber, mason, or some thing along those lines, in public school, and come out with four years worth of experience in that craft. Trade school wasn't a separate thing and all high schools were basically Job Corp minus the sleepover. You'd be able to graduate high school and walk into an industry with immediate need, making good to great money, and you could still go to college afterward for a degree in a non-skilled area for cheap. Take being a Lawyer versus and Electrician. One would think that career in law would be the more lucrative of the the two options, but you'd be wrong. The pay be tween the to careers is pretty comparable, especially when you take into account the level of experience necessary to advance to the highest positions in wither industry; Senior Partner and Master Electrician. The journey of the lawyer is as follows; Four years of college, three years of Law School, however long it takes to pass the bar which could take YEARS, finding an actual position in a saturated market, five to seven years of grunt work and doing the “pick me” dance until you make Junior Partner, then and another ten to fifteen to make Senior. That is two decades of work to reach the top of your industry, not counting however many times it took to pass the Bar. Now, let's look at the Electrician. In order to be a Master Electrician, you need eight years or sixteen thousand hours of experience in your field, half of which must be earned as a licensed Journeyman. How does one become a licensed Journeyman? You will need to complete at least seven hundred and twenty hours of electrician instruction from an approved trade school/apprenticeship program that combines hands-on training with classroom instruction. Basically, you go to Trade School for two years and you're good. Technically, less, because all the caps I've seen are for, at most, fourteen months. And that sh*t counts toward your Master status. Its wild because, starting pay for Journeyman Electrician is between sixty-five and seventy-eight grand while the Lawyer starts between sixty and one hundred and seventy grand. But you have take into account all the variables.
It's going to take you at least seven years to even get your foot into the door of a law firm and that's if you pass the Bar on your very first attempt. Guess who is a year out from sitting at the top of his industry while you literally just begin your journey? That Electrician! You see, while you were paying hundreds of thousands of dollars chasing that Lawyership, mans was in the trenches, earning them hours, building his rep, developing relationships with clients and owners. By the time you're starting your lawyer gig, he's already capping out his career. You're going to be making that median eighty grand, while mans is going to be starting at ninety-four because he earned that Master status and is staring his Senior journey; A rate that will only increase exponentially because he's got that actual experience. How much loot do you think he can earn in the next fifteen years while you scrape and scramble for Partner? And that's just his personal wage. He can take that skill anywhere in the country, without having to pass a different bar for each State. More than that, he can open his own business, sign a dumb seductive contract wit the government or state,even  freelance all he wants, and still have a safety net if none of that works out, because his industry is in stupid high demand. There is a literal shortage of electricians and skilled labor in general. There is a saturation of Lawyers. Supply and Demand dictates an electrician will never make entry level wage while a lawyer will ALWAYS make those starting duckets. All of this is taking into account that said electrician went to Trade School before his apprenticeship. Now imagine if dude got those Journeyman hours in high school because it was already a part of the curriculum. Way back when, you effectively got a trade school education, as a fifth period elective course. In today's loot standard, that means you'd walk the stage to get a diploma, with the experience to saunter right into an electrician job starting at seventy grand. At seventeen or eighteen years old. Bro, what the f*ck? Why the f*ck did we stop doing that??
That was a rhetorical question. Of course I know why we stopped. Too much power. Imagine having a highly sought skill, within an industry that is always in demand? How does a Capitalist take advantage of your labor if you, yourself, refuse to sell your life away to a capitalist industry? I know why we stopped teaching that sh*t. I know exactly what happened. Neoliberalism happened. Reaganomics happened. Union busting happened. Schools were defunded. Banks were deregulated. The great wealth heist began. Because working with your hands, earning a honest wage compensatory to your labor, won't earn those Billionaires a red cent. Being a fresh eighteen, with no debts, and earning the same wage, if not more, as a random twenty-five year old saddled with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of college debt, allots you a freedom these motherf*ckers at the top don't want you to have. In order for this unfettered capitalism bullsh*t to work, the worker needs to be dependent and disillusioned. They need to be desperate. They need to keep you in despair, soiling in abject fear of destitute, so they can squeeze your life away an hourly wage at a time. Walking out of high school with Journeyman levels of experience made you impervious to that bullsh*t. It removed yo from this sh*tty system and put the power to decide for yourself, back into your hands. That's why this sh*t went away right around the time sh*t got unfettered. That's why these motherf*ckers push college on you so hard and belittle trade school. They need you to play your part as cog to keep this machine well oiled because, at twenty-six, you'd be able to set your own price and wouldn't be beholden to anyone. That cat looking to be a lawyer, though He still got a decade of toil before anyone even looks his way.
Bro, the more I learn about what the US looked like when my parents were kids, the more hot I get. I literally just want the same opportunities they had. Nothing more, nothing less. Motherf*ckers were all hippies and counterculture and free love, but the second they got their hands on the wheel, they steered us into a f*cking wall and then changed the goddamn rules so no one could have it as good as they did, ever again.
0 notes
brendonuriesource · 7 years
Text
Death of a Bachelor, Birth of a Billboard-Topping Broadway Badass
Brendon Urie got pretty sick a few months ago. Three days before the Panic! at the Disco frontman’s Death of a Bachelor tour was set to hit Oracle Arena, he lost his voice and his temperature soared to 103 degrees. But he was slated to perform for 11,000 fans at Oregon’s Moda Center that evening.
“Still gonna have fun on stage tonight,” he tweeted before the show. “Fuck a cancellation. Let’s do this, Portland.” The next day, he informed his followers that he’d received a steroid shot in the ass so as not to miss his sold-out Vegas hometown show. Then it was off to the Bay Area.
If there were any Oakland concertgoers unaware of Urie’s social media play-by-plays (unlikely), they would’ve had a tough time deducing that the Panic! frontman felt like anything less than a rock star. He belted out over 20 songs during the March 25 show, including covers of Queen’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” and Billy Joel’s “Movin’ Out.” He took over the drums to bang out a Bruno Mars/Rihanna medley, killing back-to-back renditions of “24K Magic” and “Bitch Better Have My Money.” He nailed his signature backflip during the band’s 2013 song, “Miss Jackson.” Then he packed up, hit the road, and completed 15 more stops around the country (including one in Duluth, GA on his 30th birthday). And then, one month later, he made his Broadway debut.
This is how Brendon Urie gets shit done. And this unrelenting energy and passion have made him one of pop-rock’s biggest success stories. Panic! at the Disco currently counts over 3 million and 2.29 million followers on Instagram and Twitter, respectively, and Urie’s amassed nearly identical numbers across his personal accounts. Panic!’s 2005 debut album, A Fever You Can’t Sweat Out, produced the instantly recognizable, irresistibly catchy earworm, “I Write Sins Not Tragedies,” which became a top 10 hit, peaking at No. 7 on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart. Not bad for a group of recent high school grads who got their start as a Blink-182 cover band. A year earlier, Urie, along with pals Ryan Ross, Spencer Smith, and Brent Wilson formed Panic! and sent a few of their demos to Fall Out Boy’s Pete Wentz via LiveJournal. Within months, he’d signed them as the inaugural band under his Fueled by Ramen record label imprint, Decaydance.
Phoenix, AZ resident Sarah Fingold discovered the group early on. “I was a Fall Out Boy fan, and they did a tour in 2005 and Panic! opened for them,” she recalls. “It was one of their first tours and no one knew who they were. I just remember them being all flamboyant with their outfits and what I remembered as the ‘Shotgun Wedding’ song [officially known as “Time to Dance” from Fever].”
Fingold has attended 15 Panic! shows over the past 12 years and has, along with other early adopters, stuck by the group through a tumultuous decade. In 2006, Jon Walker replaced Wilson on bass. But two years later, Walker and guitarist Ross both left the band following the release of their sophomore album, Pretty. Odd. Urie and drummer Smith then recruited bassist Dallon Weekes while recording their third album, 2011’s Vices & Virtues, and the trio went on to create 2013’s Too Weird to Live, Too Rare to Die! But in 2015, Smith bowed out of the band and Weekes later downgraded his role from permanent to touring member.
And then there was one.
At that point, Urie had a choice. He could have retired from the music game altogether, content with the band’s solid decade together. Or he could’ve put the Panic! brand to bed and reinvented himself as a solo artist. But instead, he soldiered on alone under the Panic! moniker, writing and producing new tracks from his Los Angeles home studio. And while he recruited Weekes, guitarist Kenneth Harris, and drummer Dan Pawlovich for live performances, Urie himself recorded every instrument on the new material, aside from the horns (he’s mastered guitar, bass, keyboard, percussion, and synthesizer), and he even provided his own background vocals (courtesy of a four-octave range). In January 2016, he unveiled the band’s fifth studio release, Death of a Bachelor. As a one-man act, Urie earned Panic! its first No. 1 album and a Grammy nomination.
“Brendon Urie is an anomaly,” says producer and collaborator Rob Mathes. “He’s a young man who is an incredible drummer and singer with extraordinary range, but also a truly great bass player and a guitarist who can shred along with the best of them. Not only that, but he can do backflips and cartwheels on stage and perform seven shows a week with his voice remaining as powerful as ever.”
According to Mathes, Urie’s musical talent is just the tip of the iceberg, and this absurd amalgamation of attributes makes him an industry exception.
“Add to this no ego whatsoever — none,” he says. “It doesn’t really make sense. He was raised by Mormon parents, and though he has drifted from that tradition, I believe his kindness, politeness, and complete lack of pretension probably comes from that religious upbringing. He never thinks he is the most important person in the room. He’s one of my favorite people.”
Los Angeles-based host and long-time KROQ radio DJ Ted Stryker has supported Urie since his early days. “I’ve been listening to Panic! and interviewing Brendon since close to the beginning — he was never off my radar,” he says. “The dude is a superstar. His stage presence, energy, vibe, work ethic, attitude, style, writing — he does not want to fail.”
And he hasn’t, despite the fact that Panic! could have easily succumbed to the fate of other pop rock acts of the MySpace era, written off as a one-hit wonder. Considering the young group’s quick and sudden rise to fame and the members’ gradual departures, it would have been understandable if Urie had felt entitled to coast on his early success until fans lost interest. But the musician has pulled off a rare feat, artistically experimenting and evolving enough to continuously attract new fans, but never veering so off course as to alienate his original supporters.
“Amazingly, the band has amassed a massive cult following, and in essence, are actually bigger now than ever before in their career,” says Live 105 music director Aaron Axelsen. “They sold out a show at the Oracle in Oakland back in March and continue to generate insane sales and streaming numbers here in the Bay Area.”
“You have this [older demographic] of generation-MySpace who nostalgically love Panic! and have been there since day one in 2004, fused with a new wave of younger millennial fans, basically creating an ideal band for soccer moms and their daughters,” Axelsen adds.
That universal appeal hasn’t just kept Panic! afloat: it’s catapulted them toward greater and greater success, even as the band members themselves have dwindled down to just one. That may be why Urie, while lacking the name recognition of an Ed Sheeran or a John Mayer, beat out both artists by having the highest-grossing tour of 2017 thus far.
It’s the combination of unconditional old-school fan loyalty and newbie devotion that’s kept Panic! thriving. “When the new songs came along, the younger audience took ownership of them,” Stryker says, noting that Blink-182 and Weezer have experienced similar sustained success thanks to the support of a millennial audience.
Case in point: 15-year-old Panic! fan Eva Goldthwaite from Boston. She became a dedicated fan a few years ago after discovering Urie’s outspoken support of the LGBTQ+ community in his lyrics and press interviews. “I’ve grown up in a pretty accepting environment,” she says. “I never realized the true, horrible things that were happening in the world.”
After launching the Instagram fan account @brendon.urie (which now counts 31.5K followers), Goldthwaite was shocked to read comments describing followers’ experiences with homophobia and prejudice. Moved to take action, she and a friend decided to pay tribute to Urie’s message of acceptance by distributing paper hearts in all the colors of the rainbow through the crowd at the band’s July 1, 2016 show in Mansfield, MA. Printed on the cutouts were instructions for attendees to shine their cell phone flashlights through the hearts to create a stadium-wide wave of rainbow colors. Audience members were instructed to start the spectacle once the band launched into the equality anthem, “Girls/Girls/Boys,” which includes the refrain “love is not a choice.”
Urie and his team were blown away by the grassroots effort, sharing their appreciation on social media. Fans in other cities took notice, like 20-year-old New Yorker Raquel DiGiacomo, who co-manages the Twitter and Instagram accounts, @PanicUpdating (16K fans and 17.8K followers, respectively). As Urie prepared to kick off the Death of a Bachelor tour, she and a team of fellow fans spearheaded a national effort to replicate the rainbow.
“We spent hours getting people’s information for each stop on the tour, writing our their handles, Tweeting templates of the hearts, telling people where to buy paper,” she says. “It got so big, the people in Houston managed to turn the entire arena into the pride flag.”
The nightly tradition became a testament to the loyalty of Urie’s fans, and he acknowledged the spectacle in a speech at each tour stop.
“The last tour we just finished was the most inspiring I’ve ever been a part of,” he recently wrote in a letter to Billboard commemorating Pride month. “Thank you to all of you for being who you are. You’re beautiful and I love you.”
Fans love Urie right back — so much that they’re willing to traverse the country to see him fulfill his lifelong dream of starring on Broadway. On May 26, Urie kicked off a 10-week run as Charlie Price in Cyndi Lauper’s Tony Award-winning musical, Kinky Boots. It’s a definite departure from his comfort zone, but the production is, in many ways, a perfect fit for Urie. Lauper’s rock-tinged numbers are reminiscent of Panic!’s theatrical influences, and one eerily prophetic lyric from Death of a Bachelor’s “Don’t Threaten Me With a Good Time” kind of says it all: “I lost a bet to a guy in a chiffon skirt/ But I make these high heels work.”
If the numbers are any indication, he definitely does. In the first week (during which he only performed four of eight shows), Urie boosted Kinky Boots ticket sales by 40 percent (or $315,000) and raised attendance by 22 percent compared to the previous week. His seamless transition from rockstar to thespian has wowed critics and colleagues alike.
“Brendon has been like a sponge soaking up everything-Broadway and putting it into his work,” says Urie’s Kinky Boots co-star, Taylor Louderman. “For someone with such a huge following, you might expect an equally huge ego, but this guy is as sweet as they come.”
Mathes says the new endeavor is an ideal outlet for Urie’s talent and enthusiasm. “He has never had more fun in his life than in Kinky Boots,” Mathes says. “He’s over the moon for it and has never been happier. We know he’s at home making blistering modern rock music, but he sure is loving Broadway.”
Urie’s temporary departure from Panic! hasn’t deterred fans. Goldthwaite’s mom will drive her six hours to see Kinky Boots in July and Fingold will make the trek from Phoenix that same month. DiGiacomo has seen the show twice already and plans to see it two more times before Urie’s final performance on August 6.
Each night Urie has appeared in the show, the stage door has been swarmed post-performance, with fans of all ages pouring onto the West 45th Street sidewalk and coming uncomfortably close to oncoming traffic. And each night, Urie has shown up for fans, smiling for countless selfies, signing an astronomical amount of Playbills, and expressing sincere gratitude for their support.
The fan devotion isn’t simply idol admiration; supporters say the musician’s unwavering commitment to his craft, his community, and the causes close to his heart have motivated their own personal growth.
“Brendon has really inspired me to be a better person,” Goldthwaite says, noting that many of her 31,000 Instagram followers are in search of solace or support. “I do mini-projects where I’ll have people compliment the person above them in the comments, which spreads a little bit of positivity to a lot of people,” she says. “Brendon’s positivity inspired me to become a better person and be there for his fans, just like he is.”
Source: sfweekly
23 notes · View notes
samuelfields · 5 years
Text
Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire
When I first started writing about achieving  financial independence early in 2009, I never thought the FIRE movement would reach such a huge level of interest a decade later. After all, only misfits decide to aggressively forgo material pleasures, save 50% or more of their incomes, and retire from well-paying jobs in their 30s.
Back in 2009, the “lifestyle design” movement was all the rage because people were getting blown out of their jobs left and right. Some people went back to graduate school to save face. Others decided to start lifestyle businesses after getting laid off. I figured there was a good chance my head would also roll, which is one reason why I started Financial Samurai that summer.
Thanks to a raging bull market that ensued, life turned out fine and the FIRE movement picked up steam. Today, we are at peak FIRE, perhaps similar to peak crypto reached in December 2017. Unfortunately, when you’re at the peak, there’s usually nowhere to go but down.
Growing Angst Against Financial Independence
You know we’re at peak fire because the mass media has latched onto FIRE like a rabid dog which hasn’t eaten in weeks. Not a day goes by where there isn’t a new story about someone leaving a job early and how they did it.
As an investor, we know that by the time big media gets hold, it’s often too late to invest. Rather, it’s likely a more opportune time to sell. Just think about Uber and Lyft finally filing to IPO in 2019. After all the easy money has been made as private companies, they’re hoping to finally cash out to public investors.
My job as an investor and as a personal finance writer is to do my best to forecast the future. Writing about what may happen is infinitely more interesting (and risky) than writing about the past. Forecasting the future challenges your mind and could make you a rich hero or a broke fool with egg on your face.
But as with everything in life, no risk, no reward. Today, my crystal ball is saying the FIRE movement is in for a rude awakening.
On the one hand, there is growing disdain against the FIRE movement from the majority of Americans who will never reach financial independence. With the median household income going nowhere over the past 10 years, it’s been hard for middle-class Americans to get ahead. Further, the average American has a pitiful amount saved in their retirement accounts.
When you’ve been spinning your wheels for so long, all this brouhaha about people retiring early to live fabulous lives in their mom’s basement while posting fake Instagram pictures about their amazing lives starts to get mighty annoying after a while. Annoyance turns into rage and a new movement is born.
On the other side are FIRE practitioners who are finding out that not all is sunshine and rainbows once they’ve quit a stable job with wonderful benefits. With a slowdown in the economy on the horizon, things are not looking good.
The DIRE Movement Is Created
The Fed is on a mission to suffocate the economy with more rate hikes. The current administration wants to further escalate trade wars because of alpha male ego, no matter how adversely it affects the stock market. Meanwhile, the housing market has gone past its peak and will likely continue to be in the doldrums for the next several years.
When a downturn hits, if it hasn’t already, it’s an inevitability that FIRE followers will be forced to go back to work and earn their retirements the old-fashioned way. Some might even say FIRE during a recession stands for Foolish Idealist Returns to Employer.
However, as long as we keep the FIRE acronym alive, we give hope to its original meaning. But when all is lost, false hope only gets people into further trouble. Therefore, let’s eliminate FIRE entirely from our psyche so that we can finally make a change!
Let me introduce the newest retirement movement to the world: DIRE. As a realist who sees the future, it is all but a certainty the DIRE movement will supplant the FIRE movement as the retirement path of choice. Let’s find out why.
D Is For Delay
For most people, delaying retirement due to the rapid rise in costs for housing, healthcare, and education is the only way to survive.
Given the median household income has stayed stagnant at around $61,000 for the past decade while the median house price in America has risen from $177,000 to $222,000 during the same period (26% increase), housing has become less affordable. In some cities, real estate prices have appreciated so quickly that most residents have no hope of ever owning.
Median household income has gone nowhere in 20 years
Healthcare costs are out of control, especially if you plan to carry the entire monthly premium burden yourself. The average total healthcare cost is now almost $20,000 a year, subsidized mostly by the employer. Once you’re out of a job, the entire $20,000 cost falls upon you unless you have a low enough income to qualify for subsidies. For my family of three, I pay $1,760 a month, or $21,120 a year for a platinum plan. None of us are overweight or have any serious chronic illnesses either.
Education costs, specifically college tuition has grown unbearable with annual tuition increases averaging 5% – 7%, regardless of a recession or not. That’s a doubling of tuition every 10 – 15 years. Good luck retiring early if you’ve got to pay $50,000 – $100,000 a year for four or five years for even just a single child.
For parents with kids, retiring early will be all but a pipe dream. There will always be at least one parent working full-time to earn a steady income and have subsidized health care. The non-working parent can shout they are FIRE as loud as they want, but nobody will buy it. Being a stay at home dad or mom is nothing to be ashamed about, yet for the man especially, he can’t seem to accept his new reality of living off his wife’s income.
I Is For Inherit
With no hope of retiring early, many Americans are counting on an inheritance as their retirement strategy. With 25 as the median age when parents had kids in 1970 and the median life expectancy currently hovering around 80, the average American will likely have to wait until around 65 to inherit anything.
Today, the average age when women start to have children is 28. Therefore, future generations will likely have to wait even longer to inherit anything, all else being equal.
Not all is bad news on the inheritance front, however. With the average net worth in America rising to almost $700,000, parents are doing more than ever before to help their adult children thrive in adulthood. After all, Baby Boomers have benefitted the most from the longest bull market in history.
Every single one of my immediate neighbors in San Francisco has parents who either bought them their house or are letting them live in one of their multiple properties rent free. When I first moved into my house in 2014, I met my neighbor’s son who at the time was a 24-year-old senior at UC Davis. When he graduated in 2015, he returned home and still hasn’t left!
Can you imagine relying on an inheritance as a retirement strategy? You might never be able to start a family, create your own sense of independence, and make your great contribution to society. Clearly, one side effect of DIRE is a surge in depression.
R is for Retire
Forget about retiring in your 30s, 40s, 50s, or even 60s. With DIRE, we’re talking nowadays about the majority retiring in our 70s or older baby! We’re living longer. This means we’ve got to work longer to support ourselves. Once upon a time, people would retire at age 65 and die within five years. We are returning to the phenomena of that bygone era.
The earliest one can collect Social Security will rise from 62 to at least 65 if the government wants to make the program whole. After all, the government runs a massive budget deficit each year. With little-to-no social safety, achieving a comfortable retirement life will all depend on you.
With the trend towards retiring in our 70s or older, retirement life won’t be as fun. It’ll be much harder to play leisurely sports like golf or tennis when your back is always in pain. There’ll be no way to ever climb the stairs of Santorini when your knees don’t have cartilage. Donkey ride it is!
The only thing left you can do in this new world of retirement is watch tons of TV and surf the internet. At least with the popularity of food delivery apps, you will no longer have to go out of the house to eat a nice rubber chicken dinner. Staying glued to a lounge chair is what the new retirement reality will be like.
E is for Expire
Here is where the DIRE movement will be at its saddest. After a long life of working because you had to, not because you wanted to, reluctant DIRE followers will look back on their lives with regret. They will curse the day they ever heard about FIRE because otherwise they would never have taken the leap of faith at the top of the market and fallen splat on their faces.
Instead of being the hare, they would have won the race as the tortoise – steadily saving and investing their income during their highest income earning years with much less stress and worry. They wouldn’t have had to embarrassingly gone back to work with their tails between their legs and watched old colleagues now become their bosses. They wouldn’t have needed to go through multiple mental breakdowns and countless nights of self-doubt because they couldn’t replace their day job income with freelance income or entrepreneurial income to take care of their families.
Contrast reluctant DIRE followers with DIRE enthusiasts. DIRE enthusiasts see the FIRE movement is in trouble and decide to stay the course. Instead of retiring in their 30s or 40s, they decide to maximize their highest income earning years and retire with multi-millions in their 50s. Given everyone is living longer, retiring in your 50s is like retiring in your 40s of yesteryear. Of course, they also don’t just stay miserable at their jobs. DIRE enthusiasts proactively search for better opportunities in order to keep on working.
A DIRE enthusiast doesn’t scoff at families who believe they need $5 million in an after-tax portfolio to retire early. DIRE enthusiasts realize that runaway inflation, globalization, and structurally lower investment returns in the future will wreak havoc on living the early retirement dream. Therefore, instead of getting into a rage about why the world’s round peg doesn’t fit into their square hole, they simply adapt and work longer.
The DIRE Movement’s Future
Unless you’re willing to work more than 40 hours a week, build some side hustle income, generate some stable passive income, save aggressively, and continuously make shrewd investments for the long term, you have no chance of FIRE. And if you don’t do all these things and still decide to retire early, you will likely be screwed and join the reluctant DIRE camp.
Yes, some of you will decide to live like paupers and either delay or not have kids to keep expenses to a minimum to hold onto your FIRE dreams. However, for the majority who want to live more conventional lifestyles, it’s more important than ever to follow some key financial principles to increase your chances for financial independence.
If you are wise, you will embrace the realities of DIRE as the world heads south. Giving priority to caring for your family and delaying a super early retirement is the responsible thing to do. Don’t let FIRE FOMO foster irrational decision making.
Yes, if the economy gets really bad, there will be more face-saving by folks who say they are FIRE instead of admitting they got laid off and are drowning in a sea of despair. Just recognize not all is what it seems. If your passive income cannot comfortably cover your best life’s living expenses, you are not FIRE and only fooling yourself.
It’s time for the DIRE movement to rise up! I’m personally looking to head back to work, but I’m afraid after almost seven years of unemployment, nobody will hire my dire self.
Related: The Negatives Of Early Retirement Nobody Likes Talking About
Readers, are you ready to embrace the DIRE movement? Do you believe we are at peak FIRE? Do you believe DIRE will overtake FIRE as rational people adopt a more middle ground approach to early retirement, especially in a weakening economic environment?
https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DIRE-Movement.m4a
The post Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from Finance https://www.financialsamurai.com/dire-movement-delay-inherit-retire-expire/ via http://www.rssmix.com/
0 notes
mcjoelcain · 5 years
Text
Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire
When I first started writing about achieving  financial independence early in 2009, I never thought the FIRE movement would reach such a huge level of interest a decade later. After all, only misfits decide to aggressively forgo material pleasures, save 50% or more of their incomes, and retire from well-paying jobs in their 30s.
Back in 2009, the “lifestyle design” movement was all the rage because people were getting blown out of their jobs left and right. Some people went back to graduate school to save face. Others decided to start lifestyle businesses after getting laid off. I figured there was a good chance my head would also roll, which is one reason why I started Financial Samurai that summer.
Thanks to a raging bull market that ensued, life turned out fine and the FIRE movement picked up steam. Today, we are at peak FIRE, perhaps similar to peak crypto reached in December 2017. Unfortunately, when you’re at the peak, there’s usually nowhere to go but down.
Growing Angst Against Financial Independence
You know we’re at peak fire because the mass media has latched onto FIRE like a rabid dog which hasn’t eaten in weeks. Not a day goes by where there isn’t a new story about someone leaving a job early and how they did it.
As an investor, we know that by the time big media gets hold, it’s often too late to invest. Rather, it’s likely a more opportune time to sell. Just think about Uber and Lyft finally filing to IPO in 2019. After all the easy money has been made as private companies, they’re hoping to finally cash out to public investors.
My job as an investor and as a personal finance writer is to do my best to forecast the future. Writing about what may happen is infinitely more interesting (and risky) than writing about the past. Forecasting the future challenges your mind and could make you a rich hero or a broke fool with egg on your face.
But as with everything in life, no risk, no reward. Today, my crystal ball is saying the FIRE movement is in for a rude awakening.
On the one hand, there is growing disdain against the FIRE movement from the majority of Americans who will never reach financial independence. With the median household income going nowhere over the past 10 years, it’s been hard for middle-class Americans to get ahead. Further, the average American has a pitiful amount saved in their retirement accounts.
When you’ve been spinning your wheels for so long, all this brouhaha about people retiring early to live fabulous lives in their mom’s basement while posting fake Instagram pictures about their amazing lives starts to get mighty annoying after a while. Annoyance turns into rage and a new movement is born.
On the other side are FIRE practitioners who are finding out that not all is sunshine and rainbows once they’ve quit a stable job with wonderful benefits. With a slowdown in the economy on the horizon, things are not looking good.
The DIRE Movement Is Created
The Fed is on a mission to suffocate the economy with more rate hikes. The current administration wants to further escalate trade wars because of alpha male ego, no matter how adversely it affects the stock market. Meanwhile, the housing market has gone past its peak and will likely continue to be in the doldrums for the next several years.
When a downturn hits, if it hasn’t already, it’s an inevitability that FIRE followers will be forced to go back to work and earn their retirements the old-fashioned way. Some might even say FIRE during a recession stands for Foolish Idealist Returns to Employer.
However, as long as we keep the FIRE acronym alive, we give hope to its original meaning. But when all is lost, false hope only gets people into further trouble. Therefore, let’s eliminate FIRE entirely from our psyche so that we can finally make a change!
Let me introduce the newest retirement movement to the world: DIRE. As a realist who sees the future, it is all but a certainty the DIRE movement will supplant the FIRE movement as the retirement path of choice. Let’s find out why.
D Is For Delay
For most people, delaying retirement due to the rapid rise in costs for housing, healthcare, and education is the only way to survive.
Given the median household income has stayed stagnant at around $61,000 for the past decade while the median house price in America has risen from $177,000 to $222,000 during the same period (26% increase), housing has become less affordable. In some cities, real estate prices have appreciated so quickly that most residents have no hope of ever owning.
Median household income has gone nowhere in 20 years
Healthcare costs are out of control, especially if you plan to carry the entire monthly premium burden yourself. The average total healthcare cost is now almost $20,000 a year, subsidized mostly by the employer. Once you’re out of a job, the entire $20,000 cost falls upon you unless you have a low enough income to qualify for subsidies. For my family of three, I pay $1,760 a month, or $21,120 a year for a platinum plan. None of us are overweight or have any serious chronic illnesses either.
Education costs, specifically college tuition has grown unbearable with annual tuition increases averaging 5% – 7%, regardless of a recession or not. That’s a doubling of tuition every 10 – 15 years. Good luck retiring early if you’ve got to pay $50,000 – $100,000 a year for four or five years for even just a single child.
For parents with kids, retiring early will be all but a pipe dream. There will always be at least one parent working full-time to earn a steady income and have subsidized health care. The non-working parent can shout they are FIRE as loud as they want, but nobody will buy it. Being a stay at home dad or mom is nothing to be ashamed about, yet for the man especially, he can’t seem to accept his new reality of living off his wife’s income.
I Is For Inherit
With no hope of retiring early, many Americans are counting on an inheritance as their retirement strategy. With 25 as the median age when parents had kids in 1970 and the median life expectancy currently hovering around 80, the average American will likely have to wait until around 65 to inherit anything.
Today, the average age when women start to have children is 28. Therefore, future generations will likely have to wait even longer to inherit anything, all else being equal.
Not all is bad news on the inheritance front, however. With the average net worth in America rising to almost $700,000, parents are doing more than ever before to help their adult children thrive in adulthood. After all, Baby Boomers have benefitted the most from the longest bull market in history.
Every single one of my immediate neighbors in San Francisco has parents who either bought them their house or are letting them live in one of their multiple properties rent free. When I first moved into my house in 2014, I met my neighbor’s son who at the time was a 24-year-old senior at UC Davis. When he graduated in 2015, he returned home and still hasn’t left!
Can you imagine relying on an inheritance as a retirement strategy? You might never be able to start a family, create your own sense of independence, and make your great contribution to society. Clearly, one side effect of DIRE is a surge in depression.
R is for Retire
Forget about retiring in your 30s, 40s, 50s, or even 60s. With DIRE, we’re talking nowadays about the majority retiring in our 70s or older baby! We’re living longer. This means we’ve got to work longer to support ourselves. Once upon a time, people would retire at age 65 and die within five years. We are returning to the phenomena of that bygone era.
The earliest one can collect Social Security will rise from 62 to at least 65 if the government wants to make the program whole. After all, the government runs a massive budget deficit each year. With little-to-no social safety, achieving a comfortable retirement life will all depend on you.
With the trend towards retiring in our 70s or older, retirement life won’t be as fun. It’ll be much harder to play leisurely sports like golf or tennis when your back is always in pain. There’ll be no way to ever climb the stairs of Santorini when your knees don’t have cartilage. Donkey ride it is!
The only thing left you can do in this new world of retirement is watch tons of TV and surf the internet. At least with the popularity of food delivery apps, you will no longer have to go out of the house to eat a nice rubber chicken dinner. Staying glued to a lounge chair is what the new retirement reality will be like.
E is for Expire
Here is where the DIRE movement will be at its saddest. After a long life of working because you had to, not because you wanted to, reluctant DIRE followers will look back on their lives with regret. They will curse the day they ever heard about FIRE because otherwise they would never have taken the leap of faith at the top of the market and fallen splat on their faces.
Instead of being the hare, they would have won the race as the tortoise – steadily saving and investing their income during their highest income earning years with much less stress and worry. They wouldn’t have had to embarrassingly gone back to work with their tails between their legs and watched old colleagues now become their bosses. They wouldn’t have needed to go through multiple mental breakdowns and countless nights of self-doubt because they couldn’t replace their day job income with freelance income or entrepreneurial income to take care of their families.
Contrast reluctant DIRE followers with DIRE enthusiasts. DIRE enthusiasts see the FIRE movement is in trouble and decide to stay the course. Instead of retiring in their 30s or 40s, they decide to maximize their highest income earning years and retire with multi-millions in their 50s. Given everyone is living longer, retiring in your 50s is like retiring in your 40s of yesteryear. Of course, they also don’t just stay miserable at their jobs. DIRE enthusiasts proactively search for better opportunities in order to keep on working.
A DIRE enthusiast doesn’t scoff at families who believe they need $5 million in an after-tax portfolio to retire early. DIRE enthusiasts realize that runaway inflation, globalization, and structurally lower investment returns in the future will wreak havoc on living the early retirement dream. Therefore, instead of getting into a rage about why the world’s round peg doesn’t fit into their square hole, they simply adapt and work longer.
The DIRE Movement’s Future
Unless you’re willing to work more than 40 hours a week, build some side hustle income, generate some stable passive income, save aggressively, and continuously make shrewd investments for the long term, you have no chance of FIRE. And if you don’t do all these things and still decide to retire early, you will likely be screwed and join the reluctant DIRE camp.
Yes, some of you will decide to live like paupers and either delay or not have kids to keep expenses to a minimum to hold onto your FIRE dreams. However, for the majority who want to live more conventional lifestyles, it’s more important than ever to follow some key financial principles to increase your chances for financial independence.
If you are wise, you will embrace the realities of DIRE as the world heads south. Giving priority to caring for your family and delaying a super early retirement is the responsible thing to do. Don’t let FIRE FOMO foster irrational decision making.
Yes, if the economy gets really bad, there will be more face-saving by folks who say they are FIRE instead of admitting they got laid off and are drowning in a sea of despair. Just recognize not all is what it seems. If your passive income cannot comfortably cover your best life’s living expenses, you are not FIRE and only fooling yourself.
It’s time for the DIRE movement to rise up! I’m personally looking to head back to work, but I’m afraid after almost seven years of unemployment, nobody will hire my dire self.
Related: The Negatives Of Early Retirement Nobody Likes Talking About
Readers, are you ready to embrace the DIRE movement? Do you believe we are at peak FIRE? Do you believe DIRE will overtake FIRE as rational people adopt a more middle ground approach to early retirement, especially in a weakening economic environment?
https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DIRE-Movement.m4a
The post Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from Money https://www.financialsamurai.com/dire-movement-delay-inherit-retire-expire/ via http://www.rssmix.com/
0 notes
ronaldmrashid · 5 years
Text
Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire
When I first started writing about achieving  financial independence early in 2009, I never thought the FIRE movement would reach such a huge level of interest a decade later. After all, only misfits decide to aggressively forgo material pleasures, save 50% or more of their incomes, and retire from well-paying jobs in their 30s.
Back in 2009, the “lifestyle design” movement was all the rage because people were getting blown out of their jobs left and right. Some people went back to graduate school to save face. Others decided to start lifestyle businesses after getting laid off. I figured there was a good chance my head would also roll, which is one reason why I started Financial Samurai that summer.
Thanks to a raging bull market that ensued, life turned out fine and the FIRE movement picked up steam. Today, we are at peak FIRE, perhaps similar to peak crypto reached in December 2017. Unfortunately, when you’re at the peak, there’s usually nowhere to go but down.
Growing Angst Against Financial Independence
You know we’re at peak fire because the mass media has latched onto FIRE like a rabid dog which hasn’t eaten in weeks. Not a day goes by where there isn’t a new story about someone leaving a job early and how they did it.
As an investor, we know that by the time big media gets hold, it’s often too late to invest. Rather, it’s likely a more opportune time to sell. Just think about Uber and Lyft finally filing to IPO in 2019. After all the easy money has been made as private companies, they’re hoping to finally cash out to public investors.
My job as an investor and as a personal finance writer is to do my best to forecast the future. Writing about what may happen is infinitely more interesting (and risky) than writing about the past. Forecasting the future challenges your mind and could make you a rich hero or a broke fool with egg on your face.
But as with everything in life, no risk, no reward. Today, my crystal ball is saying the FIRE movement is in for a rude awakening.
On the one hand, there is growing disdain against the FIRE movement from the majority of Americans who will never reach financial independence. With the median household income going nowhere over the past 10 years, it’s been hard for middle-class Americans to get ahead. Further, the average American has a pitiful amount saved in their retirement accounts.
When you’ve been spinning your wheels for so long, all this brouhaha about people retiring early to live fabulous lives in their mom’s basement while posting fake Instagram pictures about their amazing lives starts to get mighty annoying after a while. Annoyance turns into rage and a new movement is born.
On the other side are FIRE practitioners who are finding out that not all is sunshine and rainbows once they’ve quit a stable job with wonderful benefits. With a slowdown in the economy on the horizon, things are not looking good.
The DIRE Movement Is Created
The Fed is on a mission to suffocate the economy with more rate hikes. The current administration wants to further escalate trade wars because of alpha male ego, no matter how adversely it affects the stock market. Meanwhile, the housing market has gone past its peak and will likely continue to be in the doldrums for the next several years.
When a downturn hits, if it hasn’t already, it’s an inevitability that FIRE followers will be forced to go back to work and earn their retirements the old-fashioned way. Some might even say FIRE during a recession stands for Foolish Idealist Returns to Employer.
However, as long as we keep the FIRE acronym alive, we give hope to its original meaning. But when all is lost, false hope only gets people into further trouble. Therefore, let’s eliminate FIRE entirely from our psyche so that we can finally make a change!
Let me introduce the newest retirement movement to the world: DIRE. As a realist who sees the future, it is all but a certainty the DIRE movement will supplant the FIRE movement as the retirement path of choice. Let’s find out why.
D Is For Delay
For most people, delaying retirement due to the rapid rise in costs for housing, healthcare, and education is the only way to survive.
Given the median household income has stayed stagnant at around $61,000 for the past decade while the median house price in America has risen from $177,000 to $222,000 during the same period (26% increase), housing has become less affordable. In some cities, real estate prices have appreciated so quickly that most residents have no hope of ever owning.
Median household income has gone nowhere in 20 years
Healthcare costs are out of control, especially if you plan to carry the entire monthly premium burden yourself. The average total healthcare cost is now almost $20,000 a year, subsidized mostly by the employer. Once you’re out of a job, the entire $20,000 cost falls upon you unless you have a low enough income to qualify for subsidies. For my family of three, I pay $1,760 a month, or $21,120 a year for a platinum plan. None of us are overweight or have any serious chronic illnesses either.
Education costs, specifically college tuition has grown unbearable with annual tuition increases averaging 5% – 7%, regardless of a recession or not. That’s a doubling of tuition every 10 – 15 years. Good luck retiring early if you’ve got to pay $50,000 – $100,000 a year for four or five years for even just a single child.
For parents with kids, retiring early will be all but a pipe dream. There will always be at least one parent working full-time to earn a steady income and have subsidized health care. The non-working parent can shout they are FIRE as loud as they want, but nobody will buy it. Being a stay at home dad or mom is nothing to be ashamed about, yet for the man especially, he can’t seem to accept his new reality of living off his wife’s income.
I Is For Inherit
With no hope of retiring early, many Americans are counting on an inheritance as their retirement strategy. With 25 as the median age when parents had kids in 1970 and the median life expectancy currently hovering around 80, the average American will likely have to wait until around 65 to inherit anything.
Today, the average age when women start to have children is 28. Therefore, future generations will likely have to wait even longer to inherit anything, all else being equal.
Not all is bad news on the inheritance front, however. With the average net worth in America rising to almost $700,000, parents are doing more than ever before to help their adult children thrive in adulthood. After all, Baby Boomers have benefitted the most from the longest bull market in history.
Every single one of my immediate neighbors in San Francisco has parents who either bought them their house or are letting them live in one of their multiple properties rent free. When I first moved into my house in 2014, I met my neighbor’s son who at the time was a 24-year-old senior at UC Davis. When he graduated in 2015, he returned home and still hasn’t left!
Can you imagine relying on an inheritance as a retirement strategy? You might never be able to start a family, create your own sense of independence, and make your great contribution to society. Clearly, one side effect of DIRE is a surge in depression.
R is for Retire
Forget about retiring in your 30s, 40s, 50s, or even 60s. With DIRE, we’re talking nowadays about the majority retiring in our 70s or older baby! We’re living longer. This means we’ve got to work longer to support ourselves. Once upon a time, people would retire at age 65 and die within five years. We are returning to the phenomena of that bygone era.
The earliest one can collect Social Security will rise from 62 to at least 65 if the government wants to make the program whole. After all, the government runs a massive budget deficit each year. With little-to-no social safety, achieving a comfortable retirement life will all depend on you.
With the trend towards retiring in our 70s or older, retirement life won’t be as fun. It’ll be much harder to play leisurely sports like golf or tennis when your back is always in pain. There’ll be no way to ever climb the stairs of Santorini when your knees don’t have cartilage. Donkey ride it is!
The only thing left you can do in this new world of retirement is watch tons of TV and surf the internet. At least with the popularity of food delivery apps, you will no longer have to go out of the house to eat a nice rubber chicken dinner. Staying glued to a lounge chair is what the new retirement reality will be like.
E is for Expire
Here is where the DIRE movement will be at its saddest. After a long life of working because you had to, not because you wanted to, reluctant DIRE followers will look back on their lives with regret. They will curse the day they ever heard about FIRE because otherwise they would never have taken the leap of faith at the top of the market and fallen splat on their faces.
Instead of being the hare, they would have won the race as the tortoise – steadily saving and investing their income during their highest income earning years with much less stress and worry. They wouldn’t have had to embarrassingly gone back to work with their tails between their legs and watched old colleagues now become their bosses. They wouldn’t have needed to go through multiple mental breakdowns and countless nights of self-doubt because they couldn’t replace their day job income with freelance income or entrepreneurial income to take care of their families.
Contrast reluctant DIRE followers with DIRE enthusiasts. DIRE enthusiasts see the FIRE movement is in trouble and decide to stay the course. Instead of retiring in their 30s or 40s, they decide to maximize their highest income earning years and retire with multi-millions in their 50s. Given everyone is living longer, retiring in your 50s is like retiring in your 40s of yesteryear. Of course, they also don’t just stay miserable at their jobs. DIRE enthusiasts proactively search for better opportunities in order to keep on working.
A DIRE enthusiast doesn’t scoff at families who believe they need $5 million in an after-tax portfolio to retire early. DIRE enthusiasts realize that runaway inflation, globalization, and structurally lower investment returns in the future will wreak havoc on living the early retirement dream. Therefore, instead of getting into a rage about why the world’s round peg doesn’t fit into their square hole, they simply adapt and work longer.
The DIRE Movement’s Future
Unless you’re willing to work more than 40 hours a week, build some side hustle income, generate some stable passive income, save aggressively, and continuously make shrewd investments for the long term, you have no chance of FIRE. And if you don’t do all these things and still decide to retire early, you will likely be screwed and join the reluctant DIRE camp.
Yes, some of you will decide to live like paupers and either delay or not have kids to keep expenses to a minimum to hold onto your FIRE dreams. However, for the majority who want to live more conventional lifestyles, it’s more important than ever to follow some key financial principles to increase your chances for financial independence.
If you are wise, you will embrace the realities of DIRE as the world heads south. Giving priority to caring for your family and delaying a super early retirement is the responsible thing to do. Don’t let FIRE FOMO foster irrational decision making.
Yes, if the economy gets really bad, there will be more face-saving by folks who say they are FIRE instead of admitting they got laid off and are drowning in a sea of despair. Just recognize not all is what it seems. If your passive income cannot comfortably cover your best life’s living expenses, you are not FIRE and only fooling yourself.
It’s time for the DIRE movement to rise up! I’m personally looking to head back to work, but I’m afraid after almost seven years of unemployment, nobody will hire my dire self.
Related: The Negatives Of Early Retirement Nobody Likes Talking About
Readers, are you ready to embrace the DIRE movement? Do you believe we are at peak FIRE? Do you believe DIRE will overtake FIRE as rational people adopt a more middle ground approach to early retirement, especially in a weakening economic environment?
https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/DIRE-Movement.m4a
The post Move Over FIRE, Welcome DIRE: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from https://www.financialsamurai.com/dire-movement-delay-inherit-retire-expire/
0 notes