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thearcanapositivity · 6 years

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The Arcana Fan Survey Results

Intro

Here it finally is! The results of The Arcana Fan Survey!

A few notes. We got 454 responses in the end. Though not everyone responded to every question, so for those questions I’ve listed the number of responses separately.

Also keep in mind that I posted the survey on my blog and it was reblogged to other blogs, but that obviously means that it is going to be mainly (or maybe even exclusively) people on tumblr who take the survey.

I’m just saying all that so you understand that this survey is never going to be 100% representative of the fandom(’s opinions on The Arcana).

I’ve just collected the data, gone through all the extra notes left by people and compiled those as well. For open-ended questions I’ve only listed the most common responses, because I can’t list 100+ responses for every question.

Because this got incredibly long I’ve just listed the contents, and all the results are behind the read more. That way, if you’re not interested in all the results, you can just look up where the results you want to see are and scroll down to those.

On a final note, there were a few responses that seemed to think I was one of the devs or in contact with them? I hope I made it clear enough this was just for the fans by the fans, and no, I can’t tell the devs anything for you. There were also a few really nasty responses directed at the devs, and I am going to completely ignore them.

I’m not saying people don’t have valid issues, I’m just saying I’m not part of the team, I can’t address them. BUT if you feel I’ve left out something vital you mentioned, feel free to send me an ask, or reblog this and add it on :)

(As this survey covers Book I-X there will be spoilers for those books throughout.)

Contents:

General

How did you get into the game?

Do you play the game yourself or do you follow it through lets-plays?

How long have you been playing or following The Arcana?

How high would you rate the game so far?

Would you recommend the game to other people? And why (not)?

The Routes

Which route is your favourite so far?

Has the previous answer changed since you started the game, and if it has, what changed your mind?

What is the route you think is the best route (so not the one you like the best, the one you think works best)?

Why do you think that route works best? Is it the writing, is it well paced, does it have the best scenes? Is the romance done well?

If the route you thought was the best one, is not your own personal favourite, why do you think you enjoy your favourite route over the one you think works best?

For each character, choose which Book you enjoyed the most.

Was there a book for any of the characters that disappointed you? If so, which one, which character, and why?

Do you feel the routes are equal to each other - in content and quality?

What was your favourite scene in all the books and routes?

We know there are three possible new routes, which one are you most looking forward to?

What makes you look forward to it?

Story Content outside of the Routes

Have you unlocked all the extra scenes and did you think they added to the experience?

Did the prologue (Books I-V) convince you who to romance, and if so who and why?

Did the prologue do a good job of introducing all the characters and teasing the romances?

Which romance do you think the prologue teased best?

Do you think the updates to the prologue enhanced your experience of the game?

Do you think the prologue did a good job of getting you interested in the story of the game (separately from the romances)?

Do you think the prologue did a good job of introducing the Apprentice and getting you invested in them?

Asra’s Route

Did you play Asra's route?

How would you rate Asra's route so far?

What drew you to Asra? And what kept you playing?

What is your favourite thing about Asra's route?

If there was one thing you could change about Asra's route, what would it be?

Julian’s Route

Did you play Julian's route?

How would you rate Julian's route so far?

What drew you to Julian? And what kept you playing?

What is your favourite thing about Julian's route?

If there was one thing you could change about Julian's route, what would it be?

Nadia’s Route

Did you play Nadia's route?

How would you rate Nadia's route so far?

What drew you to Nadia? And what kept you playing?

What is your favourite thing about Nadia's route?

If there was one thing you could change about Nadia's route, what would it be?

The Main Characters

What do you think about the Apprentice?

What do you think about the Apprentice's backstory?

Who is your favourite main character? (Regardless of how you feel about their romances.)

Has this changed since starting the game?

Is there a character you feel gets preferential treatment by the game? Either by how often they show up in other routes, or how high the quality of their own route and scenes, or memories is?

How do you think the game does when it comes to Asra's character development? Is his character consistent? Do his actions make sense to you? Has his character changed from the start of the game and did that change make sense to you?

How do you think the game does when it comes to Julian's character development? Is his character consistent? Do his actions make sense to you? Has his character changed from the start of the game and did that change make sense to you?

How do you think the game does when it comes to Nadia's character development? Is his character consistent? Do his actions make sense to you? Has his character changed from the start of the game and did that change make sense to you?

Side Characters

Who is your favourite side character?

What appealed to you about your favourite side character?

Do you think the side characters add to or distract from the main storylines?

Game Mechanics

What would you change about the gameplay? (You can choose multiple answers.)

What do you think about the optional paid scenes? (You can choose multiple answers.)

What do you think about the Wheel of Fortune?

What do you think about the way the game updates? (You can choose multiple answers.)

Any final remarks about something this survey doesn’t cover?

General

Tumblr (42.1%)

Recommended by friends (17%)

Recommended by the Google Play Store (12,8%)

Kickstarter (4.8%)

Other: a lot of found it on the app store, a few found the game via ads.

Now obviously this is a survey that got posted on tumblr and no other site, so that means it’s only logical that most of the people who found it, found it via this site.

I play it myself (78.6%)

I only follow it through lets-plays (0.2%)

I play it myself but also watch lets-plays (20.5%)

I started playing but stopped once the coin costs for romantic scenes got too much (0.2%)

I play it but only watch lets-plays of the premium scenes (0.3%)

I have bought all of Ilya’s books, but watch the others on youtube (0.2%)

Since it was released (22.2%)

For a few months (69.2%)

Since the last update (8.6%)

I think the results might be a *little* skewed, because a. people who are in the fandom for this game will of course like it a lot b. this survey was posted on a blog with only The Arcana content, so the people following it (and finding the survey) will likely also love the game a lot.

Would you recommend the game to other people? And why (not)?

(126 responses)

Basically everyone said some variation of ‘yes’ or ‘YES’ :) The main reasons they gave for recommending it were: the art, the diversity of the characters, the ability to choose your pronouns, the ability to date who you want regardless of your gender.

There were only three people who said no, their reasons were that the updates take too long, and that the paid option are too expensive.

The Routes

Asra (37.4%)

Julian (50.2%)

Nadia (12.3%)

Has your previous answer changed since the start of the game?

(226 responses)

Mostly no, but of the ones who said yes most started with Asra as a favourite route, and then went to Julian. I think a reason for that could be that a lot of people said that they think the prologue teases Asra’s romance best, so maybe that steered them to Asra in the first place.

The reasons they changed from Asra to Julian were that Asra is too secretive, and that Julian’s route has more drama in it.

Asra (49.8%)

Julian (28.2%)

Nadia (22%)

Now this is kind of a surprising answer isn’t it? Because it’s almost the reverse of the previous one, meaning as many people who prefer Julian’s route, also think Asra’s route works the best.

The results for Nadia are closer together, but there are still more people who think Nadia’s route works the best, than people who favourite her route.

Why do you think that route works best? Is it the writing, is it well paced, does it have the best scenes? Is the romance done well?

(102 responses)

The reasons given for Julian’s route were how it’s very consistently paced, the story is easy to follow and that it is a wild ride.

The reasons given for Asra’s route were that his route has the best connection to the main plot, has the most magic, and the most information about MC’s backstory. People also said he had the most consistent characterisation.

The reasons given for Nadia’s route were the leisurely pace of the romance, and the softness of her scenes.

If the route you thought was the best one, is not your own personal favourite, why do you think you enjoy your favourite route over the one you think works best?

(96 responses)

The most common reasons were the fact that their favourite route also had their favourite character, that julian needs love, that Asra is too secretive, that Julian is hilarious, Asra’s history with MC and Nadia’s slow romance.

I’d say the dance with Asra was a smashing hit ;) I’m also not surprised that Julian is the only one were Book X wasn’t the outright favourite ;)

I think Nadia’s results are a bit skewed because the least amount of people played her whole route, so that means a lot of people probably enjoy her in the prologue the most because that’s the only time they’ve really spent with her character.

Was there a book for any of the characters that disappointed you? If so, which one, which character, and why?

(211 responses)

Mostly no. But out of the ones who said yes, Julian was the only one who got more than a single response. A lot of them hated Book X, they thought it was aggravating, that Julian was hypocritical, they felt the ending was confusing/ didn’t make sense, that it was too much. Other issues were that they felt Book X and Book IX for Julian felt as mainly filler and that Julian was treated as a joke.

Yes (31.3%)

No (13.4%)

Can’t say yet, waiting to see how the routes play out (48.2%)

Other: not played all of them, Nadia’s content is locked away behind paywalls, Julian’s route is inconsistent in quality.

What was your favourite scene in all the books and routes?

(101 responses)

For Nadia it was the cake scene, and dancing in Book X.

For Julian it was the scene at the cottage with Portia and Pepi, the secret garden scene, and the community theatre scene.

For Asra it was the dance in Book X (so surprising, I know), and the cave scene.

Muriel (28.2%)

Portia (34.1%)

Lucio (37.7%)

What makes you look forward to it?

(107 responses)

For Portia it was how sweet, relatable, cute, and fun she is.

For Muriel it was his big boi status, the fact that he’ll be hard to get, and how mysterious he is.

For Lucio it was how fascinating and brass he is, his furry status, and a curiosity about how the romance will work.

Story Content outside of the Routes

No I haven’t unlocked them (36.1%)

I unlocked them but I don’t think they add to the experience (2%)

I unlocked them and I think they absolutely add to the experience (47.1%)

I unlocked them, but I could take them or leave them (9.7%)

I don’t really care about the scenes, but I like having something to save trinkets for (4%)

I don’t care whether I unlock them or not (1.1%)

Did the prologue (Books I-V) convince you who to romance, and if so who and why?

(121 responses)

About half the answers were yes, most saying it convinced them to romance Asra, because of his relationship to the Apprentice. A few others said Julian, because of his personality and the mystery around his guilt.

Yes (57%)

No, I felt the prologue spent more time on some than others (17%)

Yes, but it didn’t change my mind on who to romance (16.7%)

Other: more so after the update, Julian is too hidden away, Nadia's romance felt neglected.

All of them equally (28.6%)

I didn’t feel it teased any of the romances (8.4%)

Asra (32.8%)

Julian (15.2%)

Nadia (15%)

Yes (39.9%)

No (3.1%)

Maybe (20.3%)

Yes, but only the added paid option (8.1%)

Yes, but they also changed things I wish they hadn’t (8.8%)

Other: haven’t played/ noticed the updates, never played before the updates.

Yes (89.6%)

No (0.2%)

Somewhat (9.3%)

With what little I can remember, yes. I stayed this long after all didn’t I? (0.2%)

Y E S (0.3%)

Absolutely (0.2%)

I guess? (0.2%)

Yes (66.5%)

No (2.4%)

Somewhat (28.9%)

Other: need more options to choose the MC’s reactions, the MC is too much of a blank slate to be invested.

Asra’s Route

Yes, all of it (70.9%)

No, none of it (5.1%)

Some of it, but I didn’t finish it (22%)

Other: yes but skipped all paid options.

What drew you to Asra? And what kept you playing?

(Only 101 responses.)

The reason were, MC and Asra’s past, his love for the Apprentice, how mysterious he is, and his magic.

And a lot of people said they only play it for the info on the story, or as a pass time waiting for other books.

What is your favourite thing about Asra's route?

(Only 110 responses.)

Faust, the mystery, magic, the past with MC, and the Lisa Frank aesthetic.

If there was one thing you could change about Asra's route, what would it be?

(Only 121 responses.)

Most said nothing, but the changes suggested were: take out the flashbacks to his fling with Julian, and have less secrecy.

Julian’s Route

Yes, all of it (76.9%)

No, none of it (3.1%)

Some of it, but I didn’t finish it (17.2%)

Other: not the paid options.

What drew you to Julian? And what kept you playing?

(Only 100 responses.)

His warm personality, the fact that he’s a dork, how affectionate he is, the mystery of guilt, and his look.

What is your favourite thing about Julian's route?

(Only 114 responses.)

The Character development, the drama, the humour, Julian’s personality, and his relationship with Portia.

If there was one thing you could change about Julian's route, what would it be?

(Only 118 responses.)

People wanted more peaceful moments, to have him be less self-destructive, and more reveals about the past.

Nadia’s Route

Yes, all of it (55.3%)

No, none of it (16.5%)

Some of it, but I didn’t finish it (24.7%)

Other: not the paid options.

What drew you to Nadia? And what kept you playing?

(102 responses.)

How graceful, intimidating, and powerful she is. Her design. And for the info on the story.

Also, we’re all gay for Nadia.

Not kidding, so many responses were just that ;)

What is your favourite thing about Nadia’s route?

(112 responses)

Seeing the real Nadia under her veneer, and getting information about the murder, meeting her sisters, and the pampering.

If there was one thing you could change about Nadia’s route, what would it be?

(121 responses)

About half the responses were yes. Most people felt the paid option feel too necessary (and that all the romantic moments are paid options), or wanted more options to show the MCs feelings/capabilities to Nadia.

The Main Characters

They’re too much of a blank slate (15%)

Their personality is too set in stone (5.9%)

There is not enough variation in the dialogue options (41.2%)

I don’t really care, I create my own canon (21.6%)

I like the way the game represents them (13.4%)

Other: needs more choices you can make to define them.

I like that it’s kept vague, but I hope they’ll reveal more about it (65.6%) (combines the final category as well it’s the same category but a correction led to google counting it as two separate things)

I like that it’s kept vague, and I hope it stays that way (5.7%)

I don’t care, I’ve thought of my own backstory (5.3%)

I think the memory loss is a bit contrived (4.8%)

I like the memory loss, it adds intrigue (11.7%)

Other: please reveal more about their backstory, give players the choice to choose their backstory.

Asra (36.8%)

Julian (46%)

Nadia (17.2%)

Yes (30%)

No (63.9%)

Other: it fluctuates.

Yes, Asra (27.3%)

Yes, Julian (9.9%)

Yes Nadia (4.4%)

No, no one (51.1%)

Other: Julian and Asra, don’t know.

(117 responses)

So many people said they feel Asra’s manipulative and they outright distrust him, from saying he is keeping secrets to him ‘looking shady’.

But most people think he’s interesting and like the way he’s handled. And think he is consistent and that his actions make sense.

(102 responses)

People like his development and think he’s really grown, but they want less of his masochist side (because they feel it doesn’t make sense with how it’s portrayed).

A couple of people are still confused about Book X and feel it didn’t make sense.

How do you think the game does when it comes to Nadia's character development? Is her character consistent? Do her actions make sense to you? Has her character changed from the start of the game and did that change make sense to you?

(108 responses)

Most people think she’s consistent, and think it makes sense how she goes from reserved to open in her own route. Some feel she could stand to grow some more.

Side Characters

Portia (31.3%)

Muriel (8.6%)

Lucio (15.4%)

Mazelinka (4.8%)

Faust (25.3%)

Pepi (2.6%)

Chandra (0.4%)

Vlastomil (0.7%)

Nahara (3.1%)

Other: can’t choose, Volta.

What appealed to you about your favourite side character?

(108 responses)

Portia: cute, friendly, her relationships with the others.

Lucio: mysterious, trash, his connection to the main story.

Mazelinka: grandma.

Pets: because pets.

Add (40.5%)

Distract (0%)

Add, and I wish we had more interaction with them (57%)

Distract, I prefer to spend that time with the main characters (0.2%)

Other: sometimes adds to the story, sometimes distract from the story.

Gameplay

Add the ability to rewind (66.3%)

Add the ability to fast forward (26.4%)

Add an autoplay option (13.9%)

Add the ability to quit out of a chapter without forcing you to finish it to start a new chapter of that route (30.2%)

Add more limited time responses (26.4%)

Add more chances to choose the Apprentice’s reaction (84.1%)

Add some minor voice acting (39.6%)

They were always fine (16.1%)

They are fine now (16.3%)

They’re should be more of them (9.5%)

They’re should be less of them (13.4%)

They’re still too expensive (68.3%)

They still feel too vital to the story to be considered optional (58.4%)

They should only be used for romantic scenes (21.8%)

It’s fine (24%)

I love it (19.6%)

I hate it (1.1%)

I like the idea but it needs some work (49.1%)

Other: more coin options, make the coin options more likely to drop.

The wait between chapters is too long (23.3%)

The wait between chapters is fine (47.6%)

I wish they had a set day (a set day each month for instance when they updated (57%)

I don’t mind not knowing when the next update is (30.8%)

The infrequent updates make me lose interest in the game (7.5%)

I’ve uninstalled the game between updates because I wasn’t sure it would update (5.1%)

Any final remarks about something this survey doesn't cover?

(98 responses)

There were a lot of long responses to this (and to the people who apologized for that: I don’t mind, I loved reading them), and a lot of varied ones. Some were directed at the devs, so I can’t address those, but a few things that came up again and again were: People want more witchcraft in the routes, people want more responses from the MC to major plot points (like Julian’s eye reveal for instance), they want more options in the dialogue responses, and a lot of people still said they feel the game is too expensive.

There were also quite a few people who wanted the game to be completely free. Some didn’t want any paid options, some wanted to be able to gather enough coins in a month to pay for all the books, some wanted the wheel to just have coin options and bigger ones.

Some wanted some way to create a custom MC sprite in game (like a CC).

There were also a couple of people who asked for a NB LI, which makes me think they don’t realise Asra is NB.

So that was the survey! If you spot anything I’ve missed or just want to ask me something feel free to message me ;)

And of course feel free to reblog it with any extra information you want to add.

#the arcana #the arcana game #asra #nadia #julian #the arcana survey

179 notes · View notes

ohholyfanfics · 7 years

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Cup of Coffee 0.4|N.Horan

Summary: Jade wonders if Niall is rethink being with, and the girls join a rooftop cinema club.

Last Part:0.3

.Smiling at the sight of him waiting for her, he placed a soft kiss on his lips before sitting down across for him. Niall and Jade had made it a thing, were at least three times a week they would meet up for coffee before being thrown into a over demanding day at the office. Today Jade looked too good in Niall’s opinion and he’d let her know that the moment she had sat down making her cheeks flush. He chuckled softly before they both were engrossed in a conversation about their night and morning. Jade's was much more interesting as she had told him about an app, Libby had recently been testing for the social media aspect of Glamour.

“We still on for dinner?” She asked as he held the door open for her. Luckily for her, her office building was only two buildings away while Niall had a ways walk, not that he minded. She watched as his face fell.

“Rain check?” He asked as she smiled and nodded her head. She wasn’t expecting him to drop everything for her, and she was okay with it. Jade knew Niall was running an empire and he needed to be there to make sure everything when smooth sailing. “I’m sorry..” He sighed pulling her to him as she waved it off.

“It’s fine Ni, you have an empire to run.” She responded as she wrapped her arms around her neck pulling his face closer to her. His cologne filled her sense making slightly dizzy. “Besides, i get you all to myself tomorrow night..” She hummed before pressing her lips on his.

Relaxing into her embrace, he pulled her closer wanting to savor the feeling of her lips on hers. Pulling away he rested his forehead on hers with a soft smile. “I promise I’ll make it up to you..” He state as she rolled her eyes pulling away.

“Don’t worry about Ni, now go run that business..” She winked as she stepped away from him and towards her office. Looking back she smiled as he was still standing there, navy suite, gray tie and all. It made her beam with happiness knowing she was the one he’d be thinking about all day.

Walking into the building she was greeted by Libby and Danielle hanging out in the coffee shop in the lobby. Walking over to them, Libby sent her a wink commenting about how Jade was glowing and how there absolutely no way the hot CEO wasn’t giving her some type of action.

“Of course she's getting something Libs..” Danielle teased Jade as her cheeks flushed red as she thought back to her and Niall’s steamy night two days ago. Sure, they had yet to actually be fully intimate but had gone down was more then enough to have her mind raving about what was to come. She wasn’t about to admit that to the girls though.

“Anyways enough about Miss.CEO here.” Libby stated as the elevator door opened and they arrived on their floor. Greeting Monica, they walked farther into the office and towards the social media department. “I have signed us all up for a club..”

“A club?” Jade asked as Libby nodded her head spinning her chair.

“A rooftop cinema..” She stated as Cathy came out of the conference room. Jade gave her a smile before rushing off towards the room where the editors and writers were gathering for the daily follow up.

“Fill me in at lunch?” She asked as the girls gave he a thumbs up as she walked inside the room taken a seat besides Alex who flashed her a smile.

The meeting was quick assignments where giving and switched around. Jade was glad she was giving the weekly update online. It was a simple but yet popular segment online, Cathy had emailed her the subjects to talk about and the ones to stray from. Jade had been planning to write it sometime between Wednesday and Thursday night. Libby had informed her on the club she had signed them up for as they walked into the kitchen.

“It’ll be fun.” Jade agreed with a smile as she looked up. Her gaze catching the man before her, who sent her a wink making her cheeks flush in embarrassment. It wasn’t that Dave wasn’t an attractive male, cause my God was he a site for sore eyes. It was the fact that she was seeing someone unofficially but still she was seeing someone she very much liked.

So far the day has been brutal for Jade. She had managed to spill coffee all over herself forcing her to barrow something from the fashion department, and to top things off Niall called canceling on the rest of the weeks plans. Jade knew she couldn’t let this bother her, they weren’t even official yet and he did have a business to run. She knew things like this would happen but for it to happen so soon when she was really looking forward to seeing him hurt more than anything else. Sighing as she mixed herself up a drink, she picked up last months segment as she skimmed through.

“Alright there?”

Jumping slightly she turned around coming face to face with Dave again. Smiling, she nodded her head setting her glass down.

“Rough day…” She chuckled as he nodded his head. Dave wasn’t a stranger to the editors and writers. They have seen him multiple times when the big monthly issue meetings are held, but this was Jane’s first time actually having a conversation with him.

“Understandable.” He stated as he made himself a cup of coffee. “Congrats by the new on the new position, you deserve it Jade.” He smiled as her cheeks flushed.

“Thanks Dave, that means a lot to me..” She sighed leaning her bodying on the island between them as he chuckled. He’d read many of her articles before and to say he was blown away was a understatement. The amount of talent and potential the young woman had was out of this world.

“Just recognizing amazing work.”

Looking up at the blue skies above, she let out a sigh as Niall continued to explain his reasoning for cancelling their plans for the second time that week. She understood he carried the world on his shoulders and didn’t always expect him to see her every waken moment of the day, but cancelling like this was starting to do a number in head, and had rethinking her choices for perhaps the fifth time since they started seeing each other. Danielle insists its the lack of communication, while Libby believes its the lack of a title the two have.

“Niall-”

“I’m sorry darlin’..” He breathed out as she smiled softly knowing he was most likely tugging on the roots of his hair as he tried to come up with a solution. “It’s not okay babe, I should be able to make time for you..” He sighed as he looked down at his schedule trying to see what he can move around to make time for her, he needed to make time if he wanted this work.

“Hey it’s fine babe..” She breathed as she walked into the coffee shop. “You’re busy and I understand that. Plus this week I’m kinda swamped don’t feel bad.” She stated as she took her order sitting down at a table near the window.

“Do you need anything?’ He asked as she smiled and looked up meeting Dave’s soft smile. She nodded his head as he made a jester at the chair across from her.

“No, I’m fine I promise..”

“You sure..”

“Positive..”

“I’ll see you soon?” He breathed out as the guilt started to eat him alive as he started to think of all that he could possibly do to see her at least once before the weekend.

“Of course.”

Hanging her phone up she looked at Dave who gave her a soft smile. As much as she hated to admit it, Dave was a excellent contender in helping her forget the fact that Niall wasn’t able to see her. Dave had somehow found himself int he group of friends, and felt nothing short of welcome by the group, he even joined them for after work drinks yesterday.

“How’s the article coming along?” He asked as she groaned throwing her head back in frustration. He chuckled as she gave him a glare letting him know just how stressful it was. “Hey, be thankful it wasn’t the monthly quiz.” He pointed out as she nodded her head.

“Thank God..” She winked as they both let out a laugh as Libby and Alex danced into the cafe and sat besides the two. It wasn’t long before the four were walking out of the cafe towards the offices but not before setting plans in stone for a low key dinner at a restaurant following their day.

Sighing, Jade looked back at the empty word document before her, as she heard the from door slam shut knowing Libby is most likely home from work. Looking up she was greeted by her four best friends. A soft smile made it’s way onto her face as she saw the bags of take out.

“Take out and shitty alcohol?” Libby asked with a smile as jade laughed and nodded her head making room for everyone.It wasn’t long before they were all a mess of tangled limbs, as a shitty movie was playing on the screen as together the five of them managed ti collect enough ideas, rather how stupid or observed they sounded, Jade was able to complete her article and sent it in.

“So what are we doing Friday again?” David asked as he watched Alex and Jade play a heated gave of connect four on their group chat.

“Roof top cinema club..” Jade stated as Libby nodded her head with excitement flowing through her body as she went on to explain what would be going down.

“And we are going because?” Alex stated taken a break from his game as Jade took her turn.

“Jade here needs a little break, between work and Niall she needs as much of her free time taken up as possible!” Danielle stated as she refilled her cup.

“Niall?” David asked confused not knowing just who they were talking about.

“Yeah, Horan you know him?” Alex asked as he took a turn and groaning as Jade let out a loud cheer.

“As in CEO Niall Horan?”

“Hmmm…”

“How do you know him?” He asked Jade as her cheeks turned an unhealthy shade of scarlet, causing the group as well as Dave to let out a chorus of laughs.

“They’re dating!”

“YOU’RE DATING NIALL HORAN?!”

19 notes · View notes

shrinkratsupreme · 5 years

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day 11

i can really feel that ive lost now? its starting to look like it too i think. like around my back and ribs feels a lot smaller. i wish id taken measurements!! my bra is riding up at the back too, ive had to move it down onto the tightest hook. so its definately smaller there :’) if im lucky i might meet my first goal tomorrow! if not it should be the next day. XCITE

also just worked out......if i kept up the 0.2-0.3/day rate it would only take me to spet 25th-october29th to reach my ugw. dayumn. obviously it wont work out quite that fast as i need to add another 250cal/day when i reach bmi25. but then thats only the equivalent of half a pound less a day, so like. theres probably not much in it? hmm. looks like my goal of being 60kg by november might have been too generous LMAO ill change it to october and we’ll see how it goes! if i dont get there by then that’s fine, you can never tell how your body is going to react long term after all. but if i can get to 60 by the time i go see hozier i would definately be happy. and if im less than that, even better.

thoughts about quitting are pretty much gone atm too. they might come back, but thats okay. i know i have the willpower to not succumb to them. ive really surprised myself there - i think deep down i felt like i couldnt do it, but it was a bit of an act of desperation. i just need to learn to keep that willpower up long term, but slimming world should have me covered there.

ez just came in and was like “youre going to put all that weight back on and be fatter once you start eating” lol ok..........did i ask??? its bugging me though because i am scared of that happening. but as long as i make long term changes on top of the vlcd i dont see ive got anything to fear. this is just the starting point. BUT i am grateful to an extent because i researched it and if i start doing some weight training it will prevent my metabolism from getting too out of whack so in lieu of weights ive ordered some resistance bands and found a full body workout sheet. the extra demand on the muscles will make sure my body burns more fat rather than muscle tissue and building more muscle will boost my metabolism. win win! and i feel better about ez too so ive turned a negative into a positive. not bad (:

and you know what fuck it, i might given intermittent fasting a try when ive refed. it would make life easier to eat 2 meals a day or miss a day or two a week! and im used to being a bit hungry now. looking into it it looks like a pretty good way forward. cutting my calorie allowance in half rather than in thirds would be easier too.

one thing i dont think ive spoken about is the deep sense of peace i feel since eating this way. its very strange. i wonder if it has any correlation with the use of fasting etc in religious practices? there are times where it seems almost like a religious experience. i could honestly cry from the deep rooted sense of joy/peace. the only thing i can think of that it compares to is when i was on quetiapine, or after doing yoga for the first time in a long time, but it lasts for hours, sometimes days. it really wasnt a side effect i was expecting but i love it.

AND LIKE THIS POST ISNT LONG ENOUGH BUT not timing my meal times is working out a lot better, im not obsessing about when the alarms next gonna go off. im also trying out having the cereal in the evening rather than the morning since im always hungrier at night. not eaten it yet but ill update how i feel about it tomorrow

0 notes

tkmedia · 3 years

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Rio medallist O'Connor announces retirement

Olympic swimmer Siobhan-Marie O'Connor announces retirement from elite sport due to health complications caused by ulcerative colitis; Former Sky Scholar, who won silver in the 200m individual medley at the Rio Games in 2016, was unable to compete for a spot at Tokyo 2020

By Sarah Dawkins, Sky Sports News Last Updated: 16/06/21 9:22am

Siobhan-Marie O'Connor won silver in the 200m individual medley at the Rio Games in 2016 Swimmer Siobhan-Marie O’Connor has announced her retirement from elite sport to focus on her health, after being unable to compete for a spot at the Tokyo Olympics this summer. O'Connor was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis in 2012 and says a recent flare-up of the condition left her with no choice but to call time on her international career of more than 10 years."It's been a really difficult decision and it took me a while to come to terms with it," said the former Sky Sports Scholar. "After Rio, I had my heart set on trying to qualify for Tokyo. In swimming and especially for me, it's all about the Olympics, that's the pinnacle of our sport and that was my goal for the last four years so it was difficult to come to terms with this."Ulcerative colitis is an inflammatory bowel disease which affects the lining of the large intestine and can cause a weakened immune system, weight loss and extreme fatigue.The 25-year-old, who won silver in the 200m individual medley at the Rio Games in 2016, has been hospitalised twice in the last four years due to the chronic illness and prevented her from training for a sustained period since the beginning of the year."Swimming is a completely unforgiving sport, it's so gruelling and the time spent out of the water meant I wasn't fit for trials and I wasn't even fit enough to try and qualify for the team," she said."Even when I was fit and healthy, I wasn't able to train in the way that my team-mates were. I was always struggling with just staying in the pool, staying fit, getting that consistency. I struggled to put three good weeks together without getting ill and run down."

O'Connor made her international debut at the 2011 World Championships at the age of 15 and has gone on to win 24 major honours, including nine Commonwealth medals and the Olympic silver medal in 2016, which saw her become one of only three women to ever to swim 2:06 in the 200m individual medley race."I feel so proud to have achieved what I have despite the condition. I've had this love-hate relationship with my body for years and I'm really glad that I persevered.""I don't want to let the slightly premature end to my career potentially taint what's been the best experience of my life. I've absolutely loved being a swimmer and the sport is so special to me and I'm really grateful for everything I achieved in my career. There comes a time when you have to put your health and your mind and everything first and I'm at that point now."She tells Sky Sports News her story:"Swimming was my first love, it gave me confidence in myself. I loved being in the water and competing with my friends. 17 years later, the fundamental joy and love that I have always had for the sport, even on my worst days, remains the same.

Siobhan-Marie O'Connor started swimming at a young age "Looking at the old photographs, I think that if I could have told my eight-year-old self that one day you will win an Olympic Silver medal, set a World Record, become a double Commonwealth Champion, World Champion and European Champion, I think that she would have never believed that to be true."Swimming will be incredibly hard to say goodbye to. Although the timing of my retirement is not what I had in mind, I feel so happy to have had the opportunity to do the sport that I love as my job for the last 10 years. I have achieved everything that I ever set out to achieve."There are few people more special to me than my coach Dave McNulty. He took me under his wing as a shy, nervous, 14-year-old junior swimmer and coached me to an Olympic podium. He not only trained me to be the best athlete that I could be, but he believed in me so much that I couldn't not believe in myself too."Shortly after I joined Dave's program, I qualified to compete in a home Olympic Games at London 2012. This was a dream come true and undoubtedly one of the best two weeks of my life.

Siobhan-Marie O'Connor and coach Dave McNulty "This was not just because of how special the games in London were, but because one month afterwards I was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis - a life-long chronic condition. I had been battling severe, debilitating symptoms of the disease without any treatment for it, but somehow I had managed to make the Olympic team. It showed me that even when my condition was at its worst, it didn't have to stop me from achieving my goals."My decision to step away from the sport has been the hardest decision I have ever had to make. I know I will miss the racing and the thrill of competition, but I am really excited about the next chapter of my life."For me, the performance of my life was when I swam 2:06 at the Rio 2016 Games. I was 0.3s behind gold. It was the third-fastest time in history and under the Olympic record."That swim wasn't just two minutes and six seconds of my life, it was swimming 60 kilometres a week for six years. It was 30 hours a week of pushing my body to its absolute limits - sometimes sleeping for 19 hours in one go just to recover. It was every single race I had swum since I was nine years old. "It was an accumulation of every time I became unwell where I had to be resilient and never, ever give up on myself. It was all the times I have ever doubted whether I was capable but instead listened to the voice that said 'you can do this'.""That two minutes and six seconds went by in a flash, but what remains is many years of the most wonderful memories that I will cherish forever."

Win £200,000 with Super 6! The Super 6 jackpot has rolled over. Could you land the £200,000 on Friday? Play for free, entries by 2pm. Read the full article

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waqasblog2 · 5 years

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Do Links Still Matter for SEO in 2017? | Stone Temple

In today’s post, I’ll show you data from three different dates over the past year that illustrate why links remain a powerful ranking factor. I’ll also discuss in detail why Google still uses them, and why they are likely to remain a powerful ranking factor for some time to come.

In July of 2016, we published our first study on Links as a Ranking Factor. Today’s post updates that data with a fresh analysis of links as a ranking factor, to see if there is any indication of a decline in their importance. In fact, we have analyzed the power of links as a ranking factor on three different dates, as follows:

The Results

Let’s dig right in and look at the results across all three data sets that we pulled:

Note that the same 6,000 queries were used in all three data sets, and we see that the value stays steady and strong throughout the time period. Some movement back and forth is natural. We used 6,000 queries because that is what we did with the original study on this topic. With the Study Two and Study Three data sets, we also pulled data samples for 16,000 queries. Here are the correlation scores for those two data sets of 16K queries:

Once again, both data sets show strong results. Note: See the methodology section below for an explanation of what a “Quadratic Mean Spearman Correlation Score” value actually means.

In the first study, we also took a view in which we aggregated the normalized link counts (see the methodology section below for an explanation of what that is) by ranking position. The purpose of this approach was to help adjust for the fact that the relevancy and quality of the content are such significant ranking factors, and to help us further evaluate how links might matter. Here is what we saw:

In this data, there is some apparent erosion, but the story is quite different if you look at the results for the two 16K query sets:

For this data set, we see a lift between Study Two and Study Three, which is in contrast to the 6K data set. As a result, my belief is that this is simply normal movement of the rankings from a variety of factors.

Why Aren’t the Non-Aggregated Correlation Values Higher?

There are two major reasons, as follows:

1. Relevance and Content Quality are Big Factors: In its simplest form, if a web page is not relevant to a query, it shouldn’t rank. That is, of course, obvious, but the discussion is much more nuanced than that. To illustrate, let’s say we’ve got 10 pieces of content that are relevant enough to be considered for ranking for a query. Let’s further say that they have “relevance scores” (RS) like this:

This looks like it could be a pretty good ranking algo on the surface. We’re ranking the most relevant content on top. You’ll notice too that I set my relevance scores in a really narrow range, and that makes sense. If you’re not relevant, you shouldn’t rank.

The problem is that it’s pretty easy to make pieces of content look highly relevant just by stuffing the right words in it, and the most relevant content may in fact be giving very poor information to users. So let’s add a new score called quality score (QS) (not the Adwords version of this term, but an actual organic evaluation of a page’s quality instead), and let’s see how that impacts our algorithm:

This appears to be an improvement, and it probably is. The problem here is that, as with measuring relevance, measuring quality is a difficult thing to do. So let’s add one more element to the mix, that of a Link Score (LS), and leverage that to let the “marketplace at large” give us an indication on what content is the best on this topic. Here is what that looks like:

You see how the rankings shifted around between the three scenarios? Pretty substantially. In this mock-up of the Google algorithm, it’s pretty clear that links are VERY important. Want to know the Spearman score for links as a ranking factor in the third scenario shown? It’s 0.28.

While this is a major simplification of the Google algorithm, but even based on this, you can see why very high Spearman scores are hard to achieve.

2. Other Algorithms Come Into Play: Examples of the type of algorithms I’m talking about include:

These might impact 15 percent of our results. Let’s imagine that it changes only one of them, and one high scoring result is replaced with a single item (result number 3).

In our example, I’ve replaced the third result with something that came in from another algorithm, such as Query Deserves Diversity. Know what this does to the Spearman score for links as a ranking factor for this result? It drops to 0.03. Ouch!

Hopefully, this will give you some intuition as to why a score in the 0.3 range is an indication that links are a very material factor in ranking.

Google’s Progress in Fighting Link Spam

Those who say that links are on the decline as a ranking factor often point to the efforts by spammers to use illegitimate practices to acquire links and earn rankings that their sites don’t deserve. This certainly was a huge problem for Google in the 2002 to 2013 time range. However, the tide in this battle started to turn in 2012.

What happened first during that year was that a wave of manual penalties started to get assessed by Google. By themselves, these already sent a shockwave through the SEO industry. The next major step was the release of the first version of Penguin on April 24, 2012. This was a huge step forward for Google.

As the next few years unfolded, Google invested heavily in a mix of approaches to use new versions of Penguin and manual penalties to refine their approach to dealing with people that use illegitimate approaches to obtaining links. This culminated with the release of Penguin 4.0 on September 23, 2016.

With the release of Penguin 4.0, Google’s confidence in their approach to links had become so high that the Penguin algorithm was no longer punishing sites for obtaining bad links. As of Penguin 4.0, the algorithm simply identifies those links and ignores them (causes them to have no ranking value).

This shift from penalizing sites with bad links to simply discounting those links reflects Google’s confidence that Penguin is finding a very large percentage of the bad links that it’s designed to find.

Of course, they still use manual penalties to address types of illegitimate link-building practices that people use that Penguin is not targeted at addressing.

How much progress has Google actually made? I still remember the Black Hat / White Hat panel I sat on in December of 2008 at SES Chicago. With me were Dave Naylor, Todd Friesen and Doug Heil. A couple of the panel members argued that buying links at the beginning of campaigning for a website was a requirement, and it was irresponsible for an SEO pro to not do so.

How a decade changes things! It has been many years since any SEO in any venue has argued that buying links represents a smart practice. In fact, you can’t find anyone making public recommendations about methods for obtaining links that violate Google’s Webmaster guidelines. The entire industry for doing those type of things has been driven underground.

Driven underground is not the same as “gone,” but it does show that Google’s ability to find and detect problems has become quite effective.

One last point, and it’s an important one. Ask yourself, why does Google have the Penguin algorithm, and why do they assess manual link penalties?” The answer is simple: Because links ARE a major ranking factor, and schemes to obtain links that don’t fit their guidelines are things that they want to proactively address.

Why Are Links a Valuable Signal?

Why is Google still using links? Why don’t they simply switch to user engagement signals and social media signals? I won’t develop the entire reason why these signals are problematic here, but will share one point about each:

But now, let’s get to the core of the issue: Why are links such a great signal? It comes down to three major points:

Think about that last one for a few seconds more. A (non-advertisement) link on your site is an indication by you (as the publisher of the page with the links) that you think the link has enough value to your visitors, and will do enough to enhance your relationship with those visitors, that you’re willing to have people leave your site.

That’s what makes links an incredibly valuable signal.

Basic Methodology

After consulting with a couple of experts on the best approach (Paul Berger and Per Enge), I performed a calculation of the Spearman Correlation on the results for all the queries in our study, and then took the Quadratic Mean of those scores. The reason for doing this is that it leverages the square of the correlation variables (where the correlation value is R, the quadratic mean uses R squared).

It’s actually the R squared value that has some meaning in statistics. For example, if R is 0.8, then R squared is 0.64, and you can say about that 64 percent of the variability in Y is explained by X. As Paul Berger explained it to me, there is no meaningful sentence involving the correlation variable R, but R squared gives you something meaningful to say about the correlated relationship.

Here is a visual on how this calculation process works:

In addition to the different calculation approach, I also used a mix of different query types. We tested commercial head terms, commercial long tail terms and also informational queries. In fact, two-thirds of our queries were informational in nature.

Additional Approaches

I think that both the Mean of the Individual Correlations and Quadratic Mean approaches are valid, but one of the limits with these approaches is that other factors can dominate the ranking algorithm, and make it hard to see the strength of the signal.

For that reason, I chose to take some other approaches to the analysis as well. The first of these was to measure the links in a more aggregated manner. To do this, we normalized the quantity of links for each result. What I mean by this is that we took the link counts for each ranking position for a given query, and then divided it by the largest number of links for that given query.

As a result, the largest link score for each query would have a weight of “1”. The reason for doing this is to prevent a few queries that have some results with huge numbers of links from having excessive influence on the resulting calculations.

Then we took the total of the links for all the search results by each ranking position. The equations for this look more like this:

The value of this is that it smooths out the impact of the negative correlations in a different way. Think of it as smoothing out the impact of other ranking factors, as illustrated above (relevance score, content score, and the impact of other algos). This is the calculation that is shown in the “Aggregate Link Correlation by Ranking Position” data above.

I also looked at this one more way. In this view, I continued to use the normalized totals of the links, but grouped them in ranking groups of 10. I.e., I summed the normalized link totals for the top 10, did the same for ranking positions 11 to 20, 21 to 30, and so forth. I then calculated the correlations to see how they looked in terms of what it would take to rank in each 10 position block.

Those calculations looked more like this:

This gives us a bit more granular approach than simply aggregating all the ranking positions into the SERP positions, but still smooths out some of the limitations of the Mean of Individual Correlations method. That is what is shown in the “Aggregate Link Correlation in Blocks of 10” data above.

Cementing the Point with Case Studies

We do a lot of high-end content marketing campaigns with our clients, many of which are Fortune 500 companies. Here is a sampling of the results across many of our clients:

The sample results shown here have been repeated hundreds of times by us. However, we don’t find that links can rescue poor quality content, or cause low relevance content to rank. Also, all of our efforts focus on getting recognition from, or content published on, very high authority sites.

Doing this well requires a focus on how you implement your marketing and PR to get in front of the audiences that matter to your business the most. This will naturally drive high value links back to your site, and help you earn rankings that you deserve.

This content was originally published here.

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aaronsniderus · 6 years

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Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update

I came down with some kind of bug over the weekend. While I’m working from home and pushing through, I feel a bit ill, much like stock traders might be when looking at last week’s performance.

The weekend wasn’t all bad though as both my favorite football teams won. It was a similar situation for the economy. Despite stock market performance, there were other indicators of good things happening. Let’s get into it.

Headline News

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

In October, homeowners overvalued their homes by just 0.28%, an improvement from September’s 0.29% difference of opinion with appraisers.

Regionally, the West was closest to actual appraised value, estimating on the high side by just 0.13%. In the South and Northeast, the gaps were 0.26% and 0.36%, respectively. The Midwest wasn’t far behind, off by 0.39%.

At the major metropolitan level, Boston’s market for residential housing is hottest right now with appraisals coming in 2.93% higher than homeowner estimates. The Windy City is on the opposite side of the ledger with homeowner’s overestimating value by 2.12%. In Miami, appraisers and homeowners are experiencing a rare instance of complete harmonious agreement as they both valued homes at a median of exactly $355,000 in October.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

Home values were down 0.55% in October, according to appraisal data obtained by Quicken Loans. However, the rate of home value growth still significantly outperforms inflation. Values are up 4.49% annually.

Regional data points were a mixed bag. The West really dragged things down for the month of October as values fell 1.28%. However, the West has been the hottest housing region for quite some time and is up 6.04% on the year. Northeastern home values were down 0.48% on the month and have only gone up 2.59% on the year. Meanwhile, the Midwest was up 0.06% on the month and has seen values increase 4.32% since last year. Finally, the South had the biggest monthly gains of any housing region for the month, up 0.32% in October and 3.97% annually.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications were down 3.2% overall last week as applications to purchase fell 2.3% and refinance applications were down 4.3%

The average rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage was up two basis points to 5.17% in this survey. Despite this, the percentage of people looking to refinance increased in comparison to the overall market, rising 0.3% for the week. Still, refinance applications only account for 39.4% of overall market activity.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Prices for consumers were up 0.3% in the month of October for a 2.5% annual increase. When food and energy were taken out, the monthly and yearly increases were 0.2% and 2.1% in core categories.

Energy prices were up 2.4% in October. Analysts expect a lower number in November because gasoline prices have recently gone down. Meanwhile, food prices were down 0.1%.

Housing costs are increasing on a very moderate basis according to this report. Rent went up 0.2% for the month and owners’ equivalent rent, a measure of how much a homeowner thinks they could get if they were renting out their home, was up 0.3%.

The cost of medical care only increased 0.2% as both the cost of doctor and hospital services remained flat in October. Other categories of interest include apparel, which was up 0.1%. Prices of used vehicles were up 2.6% after having fallen 3% in September. However, the cost of new vehicles fell 0.2%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were up 2,000 to 216,000 last week. The four-week average of initial claims was up 1,500 at 215,250.

Unfortunately, continuing claims increased by 46,000 last week to come in at 1.676 million, pulling the four-week average it up 9,000 to 1.644 million.

Retail Sales

Retail sales were up 0.8% in October, exceeding all expectations. However, a control group which excludes a few items for which sales are more volatile was only up 0.3% on the month.

Looking at a few other top-line categories, cars had a strong month, up 1.1%. Even when these were excluded, retail sales were still up 0.7% for the month. Meanwhile, gasoline sales were up 3.5%. This last number is expected to drop somewhat in October due to recent decreases in the price of barrels of oil. When gas is further taken out, the monthly inflation gain is 0.3%.

Restaurant sales were down 0.2% and furniture sales fell 0.3%. This would point to decreasing consumer optimism, but there were also some key categories that saw gains.

Sales of general merchandise were up 0.5%. Included in that was a 0.5% gain for department store sales. Meanwhile, non-store retailers – made up mostly of e-commerce sites – saw their sales rise 0.4% in October.

Industrial Production

Production saw only paltry gains in October, rising 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.

The impact of Hurricane Michael meant that there was a 0.5% decrease in utility production because of power outages affecting customers in parts of six states. Mining production, which has been a consistent gainer, was also down 0.3%, for its second straight month of declines. Year-on-year growth in this sector is still at 13.1%, however.

The good news is that manufacturing was up 0.3% despite factory capacity utilization falling 0.1% to 78.4% in October. Manufacturing is up 2.7% for the year. Business equipment production was up 0.8% and construction supplies were up 0.6%.

In less pleasing news, high-tech production was flat and motor vehicle production fell 2.8%.

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac reported that lower oil prices and flow wage growth are helping to ease inflationary pressures which meant that mortgage rates didn’t rise much if at all last week.

Take advantage of this lull in the market to lock your rate now before they start to rise again.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in interest was 4.94%, flat for the week. This is up from 3.95% a year ago.

Looking at shorter terms, the rate on the average 15-year fixed mortgage was up three basis points to 4.36% with 0.4 points. Last year at the same time, the rate was 3.31%.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points was unchanged on the week, coming in at 4.14%. A year ago, the rate was 3.21%.

Stock Market

Tech stocks took a special pounding Friday. There wasn’t any one culprit. Facebook’s handling of Russian election interference was under renewed scrutiny. Meanwhile, analysts are worried that iPhone sales might slow down for Apple. Finally, computer chip maker Nvidia reported losses that sent waves through the entire sector.

Losses last week weren’t limited to the tech sector though. In general, today might not be the best day to look at your 401(k). I was doing fairly well in our Fantasy Stock League, but my portfolio was tech heavy, so I hesitate to look. I can’t win of course, but it’s been fun to check out how I would do. It’s not too late to get in and compete for prizes. The contest runs through the end of the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually up 123.95 points Friday to close at 25,413.22. This wasn’t enough to prevent weekly losses of 2.22%. The S&P 500 closed at 2,736.27. This was up 6.07 points on the day, but down 1.61% for the week. Finally, on the Nasdaq, which is predominantly tech stocks, there were weekly losses of 2.15% after the index fell 11.16 points on the day to finish at 7,247.87.

The Week Ahead

Monday, November 19

Housing Market Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey where respondents from the organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes, including present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes.

Tuesday, November 20

Housing Starts (8:30 a.m. ET) – A housing start is registered when the construction of a new residential building begins. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.

Wednesday, November 21

MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

Existing Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) – Existing Home Sales tallies the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops that were sold during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Thursday, November 22

It’s Thanksgiving in the U.S. Enjoy your family and the food coma!

Every year, it seems like there are a bunch of reports released in the week before the Thanksgiving holiday so no one has to think in the week after the feast. We’ll have it all covered for you in next Monday’s Market Update!

If this article has put you in a doze before the big meal, I completely understand. We have plenty of home, money and lifestyle content to share with you if you subscribe to the Zing Blog below. This week, let’s take a look at some of our top tips to host Friendsgiving gatherings. Have a great week!

The post Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/tech-stocks-lead-losses-market-update

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aaltjebarisca · 6 years

Text

Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update

I came down with some kind of bug over the weekend. While I’m working from home and pushing through, I feel a bit ill, much like stock traders might be when looking at last week’s performance.

Headline News

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

In October, homeowners overvalued their homes by just 0.28%, an improvement from September’s 0.29% difference of opinion with appraisers.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications were down 3.2% overall last week as applications to purchase fell 2.3% and refinance applications were down 4.3%

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Prices for consumers were up 0.3% in the month of October for a 2.5% annual increase. When food and energy were taken out, the monthly and yearly increases were 0.2% and 2.1% in core categories.

Energy prices were up 2.4% in October. Analysts expect a lower number in November because gasoline prices have recently gone down. Meanwhile, food prices were down 0.1%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were up 2,000 to 216,000 last week. The four-week average of initial claims was up 1,500 at 215,250.

Unfortunately, continuing claims increased by 46,000 last week to come in at 1.676 million, pulling the four-week average it up 9,000 to 1.644 million.

Retail Sales

Retail sales were up 0.8% in October, exceeding all expectations. However, a control group which excludes a few items for which sales are more volatile was only up 0.3% on the month.

Restaurant sales were down 0.2% and furniture sales fell 0.3%. This would point to decreasing consumer optimism, but there were also some key categories that saw gains.

Industrial Production

Production saw only paltry gains in October, rising 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.

In less pleasing news, high-tech production was flat and motor vehicle production fell 2.8%.

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac reported that lower oil prices and flow wage growth are helping to ease inflationary pressures which meant that mortgage rates didn’t rise much if at all last week.

Take advantage of this lull in the market to lock your rate now before they start to rise again.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in interest was 4.94%, flat for the week. This is up from 3.95% a year ago.

Looking at shorter terms, the rate on the average 15-year fixed mortgage was up three basis points to 4.36% with 0.4 points. Last year at the same time, the rate was 3.31%.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points was unchanged on the week, coming in at 4.14%. A year ago, the rate was 3.21%.

Stock Market

The Week Ahead

Monday, November 19

Tuesday, November 20

Wednesday, November 21

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Thursday, November 22

It’s Thanksgiving in the U.S. Enjoy your family and the food coma!

The post Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/tech-stocks-lead-losses-market-update

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mikebrackett · 6 years

Text

Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update

I came down with some kind of bug over the weekend. While I’m working from home and pushing through, I feel a bit ill, much like stock traders might be when looking at last week’s performance.

Headline News

Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

In October, homeowners overvalued their homes by just 0.28%, an improvement from September’s 0.29% difference of opinion with appraisers.

Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI)

MBA Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications were down 3.2% overall last week as applications to purchase fell 2.3% and refinance applications were down 4.3%

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Prices for consumers were up 0.3% in the month of October for a 2.5% annual increase. When food and energy were taken out, the monthly and yearly increases were 0.2% and 2.1% in core categories.

Energy prices were up 2.4% in October. Analysts expect a lower number in November because gasoline prices have recently gone down. Meanwhile, food prices were down 0.1%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were up 2,000 to 216,000 last week. The four-week average of initial claims was up 1,500 at 215,250.

Unfortunately, continuing claims increased by 46,000 last week to come in at 1.676 million, pulling the four-week average it up 9,000 to 1.644 million.

Retail Sales

Retail sales were up 0.8% in October, exceeding all expectations. However, a control group which excludes a few items for which sales are more volatile was only up 0.3% on the month.

Restaurant sales were down 0.2% and furniture sales fell 0.3%. This would point to decreasing consumer optimism, but there were also some key categories that saw gains.

Industrial Production

Production saw only paltry gains in October, rising 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase.

In less pleasing news, high-tech production was flat and motor vehicle production fell 2.8%.

Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac reported that lower oil prices and flow wage growth are helping to ease inflationary pressures which meant that mortgage rates didn’t rise much if at all last week.

Take advantage of this lull in the market to lock your rate now before they start to rise again.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with 0.5 points paid in interest was 4.94%, flat for the week. This is up from 3.95% a year ago.

Looking at shorter terms, the rate on the average 15-year fixed mortgage was up three basis points to 4.36% with 0.4 points. Last year at the same time, the rate was 3.31%.

Finally, the average rate for a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.3 points was unchanged on the week, coming in at 4.14%. A year ago, the rate was 3.21%.

Stock Market

The Week Ahead

Monday, November 19

Tuesday, November 20

Wednesday, November 21

Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET) – These are based on new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory goods.

Thursday, November 22

It’s Thanksgiving in the U.S. Enjoy your family and the food coma!

The post Tech Stocks Lead Losses – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/tech-stocks-lead-losses-market-update

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twilightfaze · 7 years

Text

Status Update: August 19

Hi Pangaeans Been 12 shapes and sizes of busy. Not literally, of course, but I'll fill you in. Let's get to Pangaea, shall we? I've been back to gathering resources, but all I could find was some useful music and stuff for the flashbacks in Ace's story. I still have a LOT I need to buy and find before I can get anywhere with version 0.4's battle update. As a reminder to those who don't know, I'm not looking to overhaul the battle system completely. The stock battle system that exists in 0.3 and before is, to put nicely, absolute garbage. Not knocking RPG Maker MV's stock, don't get me wrong. It's good for basic RPG battles. But for what I need? This doesn't even cover the skeletal framework. The core system relies on environment for Zero, Cici, and Boulder; especially Zero. As I wrote before, Zero's powers in battle will solely be affected by the area: If he's underground, it's rock-based. If it's in the tundra, it's ice-based. Of course, it won't JUST be rock or ice, but other elements too. How much elemental exposure will also affect what skills are locked or unlocked with him too. Can't make it too easy, can I? Otherwise, why have team members? Boulder and Cici will also be affected and the other party members are specialized in fields of combat, but those guys are still undergoing development. It won't be reflected in 0.4 since it's so advanced, but I'll try to put a taste. Ok, so now to the real life stuff, for those interested. My therapist is on vacation so I haven't gone to see him for a bit yet. Still planning on getting help. I'm also back in school and that's eating up a lot of my time. A family member joined me at my job so now I'm helping them out as well as doing my own job. Been hectic, to say the least. I'm also headed overseas to France in the coming months for a family visit. Maybe I'll dust off my Pokemon Go app and catch a Mr. Mime while I'm there. I like game and all, but it lost it's luster when Niantic kept screwing up their launches. Role models in why I take my time with things and rush nothing. Nobody likes to wait, sure, but it beats something half-assed when pushing out a deadline on yourself. Most players appreciate when delays are made by developers when they admit something janky happened and they're trying to fix it. Disappointment happens, sure, but you very rarely lose a fanbase (and if you do, they were never fans in the first place, let's be real). Ok enough of that. As you can see, I just recently opened a Tumblr and Instagram account, but Instagram is empty until I get done with 0.4. I have almost no screenshots to show for it, but I wanted to get something out there. But the real focus is Tumblr. Reason I opened it was because I figured some readers and visitors who may have wanted to voice their opinion wanted to stay anonymous. No e-mail, username or anything like that. Tumblr lets your ideas be heard or voice whatever, staying behind the veil of anonymity. Naturally if it's just trash talk and insults, those are deleted, but for now, I'm giving the benefit of the doubt. If you have something to say, click here and let your voice be heard! I'm always listening. Ok enough preaching and yapping. I need to buckle down and get to work! Thanks to everyone who's given advice and shown support!

#WeeklyPost 1stWorldProblems GameDevelopment #TwilightFaze TheLegendOfPangaea IndieGame

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junker-town · 7 years

Text

What’s next for Army football after its best season in 20 years?

Army won its first bowl since 2010, beat Navy for the first time since 2001, and won eight games for the first time since 1996 last year.

This preview originally published May 5 and has since been updated.

“Sir, sir, I’m sorry. I’m sorry sir, but you need to see this. I think God wants you to see what’s happening right now.”

Senior defensive back Matthew Kaufman had leaned over the bench and put his hands on Col. Pawlikoski’s shoulders.

“We get this and it’s over! We win! Come see this!” Kaufman said.

Kaufman helped the Colonel over the bench and into a crowd of Army players to see something new: Quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw pushed a pile two yards on 3rd and 1. No fumbles. No curses. They sang second.

This wasn’t supposed to happen anymore. Sure, Army was going to eventually beat Navy again — but 7-5? This is just an aberration, right? This isn’t possible anymore. Army winning football games. Right?

— Inside Army's top secret, years-long plan to finally ‘Beat Navy’

Army was close. It was becoming slightly easier to see that. The Black Knights weren’t good in 2015, but they were competitive enough to lose seven games by one possession. Granted, a lot of those losses came to bad teams — 37-35 to Fordham, 17-14 to Wake Forest, 38-31 to Rice, 34-31 to Tulane — but some didn’t. They lost by just six points to Penn State and by four points to Navy.

(Plus, well, the average Army schedule features plenty of bad opponents. Beat them, and you’re getting somewhere.)

Army was slowly beginning to figure out the underdog playbook. The cadets slowed the game down to a crawl (110th in Adj. Pace in 2015), worked the ball semi-efficiently on the ground (65th in rushing success rate), moved the chains in short yardage (40th in power success rate), hit the occasional play-action bomb (third in passing IsoPPP), and basically attempted a nice, rousing game of Keep Away each Saturday. It’s the service academy way. Approaching the game in this manner has won Navy a lot of games, and while Air Force plays much more aggressively on defense, the recipe is relatively similar there, too.

What Army lacked in 2015 was any semblance of defensive effectiveness. The Knights weren’t awful against the run, but they were truly dreadful against the pass. And while slowing the tempo down cuts down on the number of overall possessions — therefore giving opponents fewer opportunities to pull away — you still have to make some stops eventually. Army couldn’t.

In 2016, Army could. Jeff Monken’s squad improved from 120th to 66th in Def. S&P+, and a couple of extra stops per game made all the difference. The Black Knights beat Rice by 17 this time around, beat Wake Forest by eight, and, of course, beat Navy by four. They upset Temple in the season opener and pummeled lesser FCS teams (Lafayette and Morgan State) and UTEP as well.

Sure, there were missteps — a late-game collapse against Buffalo, a 17-point loss to North Texas, a 38-point loss to Notre Dame — but Army found itself with just enough experience and confidence to follow the underdog playbook till the end and in the process put together quite the “first since” list.

First bowl bid (and bowl win) since 2010.

First win over Navy since 2001.

First eight-win season since 1996.

Army finally began clearing some hurdles again in 2016, but now comes the hardest part: continuing to do so. After 1996’s brilliant 10-win campaign, the Black Knights went 4-7. After going 7-6 and winning the Armed Forces Bowl in 2010, they went 3-9. And after last beating Navy in 2001, they proceeded to go 3-33 over the next three seasons.

The hangover effect is real. And it could technically happen again. But Army has the experience to perhaps avoid it this time around. The 2016 squad wasn’t some senior-laden outfit putting together a grand finale. The quarterback was a junior, the fullbacks sophomores, the leading slotback a freshman. The defense was mostly sophomores and juniors. the offensive line mostly juniors.

A year after a massive breakthrough, Army ranks in the top 40 in returning production. The Black Knights are favored (per S&P+ projections, which are generally unfriendly to service academies because of their focus on recruiting rankings and returning production) in six more games this fall and are minor underdogs in two more.

The script Monken has put together isn’t particularly unique, but it doesn’t need to be. After winning six games in his first two years in charge at West Point, he won eight last year. And now there are another couple of “first sinces” within reach: first back-to-back bowl campaigns since 1984-85 and first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 1996.

2016 in review

2016 Army statistical profile.

The 2015 season was wrecked from the beginning; Army was basically four plays from a 5-0 start but made none of them and went 1-4. With bowl hopes already almost off the table, the Black Knights cratered briefly before rebounding to lose more close games down the stretch.

In 2016 came the direct opposite: Army burst out of the gates, upsetting Temple and beating Rice and UTEP with ease. The Knights then proceeded to nearly screw everything up.

First 3 games (3-0): Avg. percentile performance: 60% (73% offense, 72% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 6.0, Opp 5.4 (plus-0.6) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-35.2 PPG

Next 7 games (2-5): Avg. percentile performance: 26% (31% offense, 47% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 5.5, Opp 5.2 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-2.9 PPG

Last 3 games (3-0): Avg. percentile performance: 53% (60% offense, 67% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 6.6, Opp 4.5 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-15.0 PPG

There were actually two statistical giveaways for Army games in 2016:

8 Army wins: Turnover margin: plus-7 | Plays per game: Army 73.5, Opp 53.9 (plus-19.6)

5 Army losses: Turnover margin: minus-10 | Plays per game: Army 65.0, Opp 62.6 (plus-2.4)

When the game of Keep Away worked, Army won. When it didn’t, Army didn’t. Because of the nature of the option, Army committed a lot of fumbles in 2016, but the Black Knights still cut that number down a bit — from a nation’s worst 3.2 per game in 2015 to a merely bad 2.4 — and that made a difference. Meanwhile, the defense doubled its takeaways from 11 to 22. That made an even bigger difference.

The recipe will be the same this fall. And with quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw and his top seven running backs returning, the mistakes will probably be cut down even further.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Running an option offense allows you to be good without having the pieces to be good at everything. Army’s version was typical, maximizing efficiency (18th in success rate) and drive finishing (30th in points per scoring opportunity) while creating minimal big plays (124th in IsoPPP) and fumbling a lot (113th in expected turnover margin).

It was a worthwhile trade. Army avoided negative plays, again converted in short yardage, and wouldn’t let opponents have the ball.

Success at fullback was huge. 220-pound Andy Davidson and 225-pound Darnell Woolfolk, both sophomores at the time, combined to carry 23 times per game, average 5.2 yards per carry, and score 21 touchdowns. The key to the triple option is forcing opponents to mind the between-the-tackles option. If you are good enough at that, it makes it a million times easier to get a step on defenders on the outside.

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Davidson (40) & Bryce Holland (65)

With fullback success, Bradshaw was able to rush for at least five yards on 44 percent of his carries, and the slotbacks were able to hit the edge. In 14.6 carries per game, six slots averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Kell Walker and Jordan Asberry led the way with a combined 799 rushing yards on just 115 carries.

Davidson and Woolfolk are back. Five of the six slotbacks are back [update: make that four, as 326-yard rusher Tyler Campbell left for Elon]. Bradshaw is back, as is more-than-capable backup Chris Carter. Three-star sophomore Kjetil Cline could get involved this year.

Because of a combination of injury and general shuffling, Army couldn’t settle on a line in 2016; 10 different linemen started at least one game. That the Knights still managed to thrive in short yardage and keep opponents out of the backfield (fifth in stuff rate) was a major feat. And now eight of those 10 players return. Four have started at least 14 games in their respective careers.

Okay, so nearly every single component of an improved run game is back. What does that actually mean? Where is there still need for improvement?

The major need comes when Army falls behind schedule. Whereas Navy ranked 10th in both standard downs and passing downs success rate, Army ranked 17th and 58th. The Black Knights were a woeful 119th in Passing Downs S&P+, and while you might expect that of a triple option offense, Navy’s continues to work in those situations.

For this type of offense, passing downs success doesn’t just come from passing, but it definitely starts there. If opponents don’t have any reason to fear the aerial attack, they can just continue defending the option appropriately.

On third-and-4 or more, Bradshaw completed just 12 of 30 passes for 177 yards and two interceptions. He was able to do the “play-action bomb” thing well, completing 15 first-down passes for 363 yards and four scores, but the final step in the senior’s development will be figuring out how to convert one more third-and-long per game. Just imagine how well Keep Away will go if Army can do that.

That could be tricky without Army’s one big-play wideout. Edgar Poe gained 336 yards in his 16 receptions and was far more explosive than fellow wide receivers Jeff Ejekam (nine catches for 100 yards) or Christian Poe (10 for 133) [Update: Christian is also gone]. Be it Ejekam, sophomore Glen Coates, senior Jermaine Adams, or anyone else, Army receivers still need to get open deep occasionally.

Defense

If you can attack the line of scrimmage against the run and prevent big pass plays, you’re getting somewhere. Army was far from elite defensively, but the Black Knights had a set of awesome linebackers, and while there were some injuries, especially in the secondary, they were infrequent enough that Army got away with a pretty small rotation.

Only three defensive linemen, six linebackers, and six defensive backs made more than 6.5 tackles last season. That 10 of these 15 players return is encouraging. That two of the four shop-wrecking linebackers don’t is a concern. Jeremy Timpf and Andrew King combined for 24 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks and were by far the cadets’ leading tacklers overall. They leave a lot of production to replace.

The return of Alex Aukerman and Kenneth Brinson will obviously help. They combined for 22.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks themselves, and backup Will linebacker James Nachtigal added five and 3.5, respectively. Brinson and Nachtigal were both three-star recruits, as was sophomore Ryan Parker. Sophomores Jake Ellington and Joe Ryan were high-twos. Army has recruited better at linebacker than at any other position, so maybe that upside will pay off.

Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Aukerman

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Rhyan England

If it does, the defense should fall into place. Seniors John Voit and Andrew McLean lead the way up front, and senior safety Rhyan England is a stalwart play-maker in the back. Army was drastically young at cornerback last season, but there appears to be some potential — Elijah Riley and Jaylon McClinton combined for 10 passes defensed and a pair of TFLs as freshmen, and Marcus Hyatt was a major role player as a sophomore.

Army was better against the run (48th in Rushing S&P+) than the pass (84th in Passing S&P+) last season, and it’s possible that gap shifts a bit with an experience secondary and potential, though not guaranteed, regression at linebacker. This level of returning production should result in a similar product to last year’s, but depth is still an unknown.

When you play so few guys, it’s hard to know what’s backing them up in case of injury. If pressed into action, perhaps former high-two- and three-star recruits will thrive. But we won’t know until it happens.

(It’s always strange to randomly insert real life into a football preview, but it’s impossible not to mention Brandon Jackson somewhere in this piece. The sophomore died in a single-car crash two games into the season, and the Black Knights rallied around his memory and his family. I can’t imagine the emotional toll that took on this team.)

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Jackson’s mother with Army players after the Navy game.

Special Teams

That Army was able to flip its close-game fortunes was impressive considering the Black Knights’ special teams unit was actively working against them. Blake Wilson and Mitchell Howard combined to make only six of 12 field goals and boot touchbacks on only 21 percent of kickoffs. J.D. Mote and Nick Schrage combined to average just 35.9 yards per punt. Elijah St. Hilaire and Tyler Campbell averaged just 17.7 yards per kick return. Malik McGue showed efficiency potential in punt returns but fumbled five times.

Army ranked a well-earned 128th out of 128 in Special Teams S&P+. The Black Knights proved that you can still win games with awful special teams, but that’s not something you have to prove. Some contributors return, so maybe there’s some consistency to be found. But maybe not — this unit was awful in a way that went far beyond inexperience. Wanted: some new legs.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep Fordham NR 14.1 79% 9-Sep Buffalo 128 12.6 77% 16-Sep at Ohio State 2 -38.5 1% 23-Sep at Tulane 94 -4.4 40% 30-Sep UTEP 126 9.3 70% 7-Oct at Rice 120 1.8 54% 14-Oct Eastern Michigan 96 1.2 53% 21-Oct Temple 67 -9.3 30% 4-Nov at Air Force 116 0.2 50% 11-Nov Duke 65 -9.9 28% 18-Nov at North Texas 106 -1.4 47% 9-Dec vs. Navy 71 -8.9 30%

Projected S&P+ Rk 102 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 118 / 75 Projected wins 5.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -16.0 (125) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 103 / 118 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -3 / -5.5 2016 TO Luck/Game +1.0 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 70% (66%, 74%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 8.2 (-0.2)

Army is finding its niche with Monken in charge. The Black Knights broke through in 2016 with a lineup far from senior-heavy, and they did so with clear, obvious areas for future improvement — passing downs offense, pass defense, special teams, etc. Recruiting has improved a bit, returning production is high, and the cadets appear well suited to further mastery of the underdog script.

The schedule is still pretty light, but it appears to get at least a little bit more difficult this fall. Last year the Black Knights played two FCS opponents and three teams among FBS’ bottom 10 in S&P+. The bottom feeders are there, but there’s only one FCS foe, and four opponents are projected 71st or better.

This could be a situation a lot like last year’s, where the Knights were .500 late and needed late triumphs to become bowl eligible. Or they could engineer a strong start instead. It all depends on the relative tossups — they have five games with win probability between 40 and 54 percent. With overachievement or strong close-game execution, a 6-1 start is possible. That’ll take the suspense right out of the equation.

Regardless, it’s great to have Army back. College football is more fun with three different service academy teams serving as a pain in the butt and proving that you can win games with two-star recruits and a disciplined system.

Monken brought the Black Knights back to the party; now we get to find out if they can stay there this time. Signs point to yes.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

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waqasblog2 · 5 years

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Do Links Still Matter for SEO in 2017?

By Eric Enge

May 2016

August 2016

May 2017

The Results

Let’s dig right in and look at the results across all three data sets that we pulled:

Once again, both data sets show strong results. Note: See the methodology section below for an explanation of what a “Quadratic Mean Spearman Correlation Score” value actually means.

In this data, there is some apparent erosion, but the story is quite different if you look at the results for the two 16K query sets:

Why Aren’t the Non-Aggregated Correlation Values Higher?

There are two major reasons, as follows:

While this is a major simplification of the Google algorithm, but even based on this, you can see why very high Spearman scores are hard to achieve.

2. Other Algorithms Come Into Play: Examples of the type of algorithms I’m talking about include:

Local search results

Image results

Video results

Query Deserves Diversity results

These might impact 15 percent of our results. Let’s imagine that it changes only one of them, and one high scoring result is replaced with a single item (result number 3).

Hopefully, this will give you some intuition as to why a score in the 0.3 range is an indication that links are a very material factor in ranking.

Google’s Progress in Fighting Link Spam

Of course, they still use manual penalties to address types of illegitimate link-building practices that people use that Penguin is not targeted at addressing.

Driven underground is not the same as “gone,” but it does show that Google’s ability to find and detect problems has become quite effective.

Why Are Links a Valuable Signal?

User Engagement Signals: Google probably finds some way to use these signals in one scenario or another, but there are limitations to what they can do. Here is what the head of their machine learning team, Jeff Dean, said about them: “An example of a messier reinforcement learning problem is perhaps trying to use it in what search results should I show. There’s a much broader set of search results I can show in response to different queries, and the reward signal is a little noisy. If a user looks at a search result and likes it or doesn’t like it, that’s not that obvious.”

But now, let’s get to the core of the issue: Why are links such a great signal? It comes down to three major points:

Implementing links requires a material investment to be made by you. You must own a website and you must take the time to implement the link on a web page. This may not be a huge investment, but it’s significantly more effort than it is to implement a link in a social media post.

When you implement a link, you are making a public endorsement identifying your brand with the web page that you’re linking to. In addition, it’s static. It sits there in an enduring manner. In contrast, with a link in a social media post, it’s gone from people’s feeds quickly, sometimes only in minutes.

Now, here is the big one: When you implement a link on a page on your site, people might click on it and leave your site.

That’s what makes links an incredibly valuable signal.

Basic Methodology

Here is a visual on how this calculation process works:

Additional Approaches

Then we took the total of the links for all the search results by each ranking position. The equations for this look more like this:

Those calculations looked more like this:

Cementing the Point with Case Studies

We do a lot of high-end content marketing campaigns with our clients, many of which are Fortune 500 companies. Here is a sampling of the results across many of our clients:

This content was originally published here.

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mikebrackett · 6 years

Text

Stocks Stop Skid – Market Update

As much as it pains me to say this as a fan of the maize and blue, congratulations to the Villanova Wildcats on winning the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. It’s been one heck of a ride. One thing’s for sure – no matter what team you’ve been pulling for, the tournament always delivers its share of surprises, highs and lows.

Economic indicators have been up and down in their own way lately. Let’s jump into what happened this week.

Headline News

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI

Home prices were up 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the month of January. Prices were up 0.3% overall on the month and have risen 6.4% on the year.

There’s a bit of a bubble watch going on out West. Prices in Seattle are up 12.9% on the year. In Las Vegas, prices have gone up 11.1% annually, and San Francisco is up 10.2%. Other Western cities showing price growth include Los Angeles, Denver, San Diego and Portland, each over 7% growth.

The cities with the weakest annual growth include Chicago and Washington, D.C. – each at 2.4%.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence readings fell 2.3 points to 127.7 in March, but the reading was still very strong.

Digging into the specifics, only 14.9% of Americans say jobs are hard to get, which is very favorable for employment. The weakness comes in stock market ratings. Only 35.4% of those surveyed see a yearly gain in the market, which is down from 40.1% in February and 51.0% in January. Only 5.5% of people expect to buy a house in the near future. It’s down a couple of percentage points from where it’s been in recent months.

Finally, inflation expectations sit at only 4.6% after being higher in the past couple of readings.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Despite the average rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage rising one basis point to 4.69% in this report, applications were up 4.8% overall last week. Purchase applications were up 3.0%, and refinance applications rose 7.0%.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The economy grew at a rate of 2.9% in the final reading for the fourth quarter of 2017. This beat the expectations for a 2.7% growth increase. A big part of this was a 0.2% upward revision in consumer spending. Now, total growth in this area sits at 4.0% for the quarter, as there was an equal uptick in the revision for consumer spending.

Nondurable goods spending is up 0.5% to 4.8%, which makes up for a 0.1% drop in spending on durable goods. Still, spending on durable goods was pretty strong because of hurricane-related replacement.

Nonresidential fixed investment was up 0.2% in revisions to 6.8% overall in the quarter. Meanwhile, residential investment was down 0.2% but is still up 12.8% overall.

The drop in inventories was just 0.5 point, which is less than it has been. We imported more than we exported, which subtracted 1.2% from overall GDP. Government purchases were up 3.0%, which was a positive for overall growth in the quarter.

An indication of where inflation stands, prices were up 2.3% on the quarter, according to this metric.

International Trade in Goods

The nation’s goods deficit increased by $100 million in February to $75.4 billion. However, what really stings was a $900 million upward revision to last month’s deficit.

Imports were up 1.4% on the month as imports of food rose quite a bit as did capital goods and industrial supply imports. There was also a noticeable increase in vehicle imports while imports of consumer goods had only a small uptick.

Exports were up 2.2%. There were big gains in automobiles, a sector that usually doesn’t see a lot of international orders. Capital goods, on the other hand, are an export strength, and this report is no different. Consumer goods, usually weak, were again down in February after rising in January.

Pending Home Sales Index

Pending home sales were up 3.1% to an index level of 107.5 in February. Because this measures the number of homes with a purchase agreement in place, it’s a good sign for future existing home sales. The only bad thing was that January numbers were revised lower so that it showed a 5.0% decline for that month.

In terms of regional data, the Northeast was up 10.3% on the month. In the South, these were up 3.0%. The Midwest and West were trailers, up 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

Jobless Claims

Initial claims last week came in at 215,000, down 12,000 from the week prior. The four-week moving average was down 500 to 224,500.

It is noted that these numbers aren’t reflecting accurate levels for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands because the procedures for filing unemployment claims there are still being affected by the hurricane aftermath.

On the continuing claims side, these were up 35,000 to 1.871 million last week. Despite this, the four-week moving average was down 12,750 to about 1.862 million.

Personal Income and Outlays

Personal incomes were up 0.4% in February. Americans are saving more though, as spending only rose 0.2%. The spending increase was just enough to keep up with the price rise in core categories as well as overall on the month.

This is known to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation. Prices have risen 1.6% in core categories and 1.8% overall on the year, just below the Fed’s 2% targets.

Wages and salaries were up 0.5% in this report. While spending was only up 0.2% overall, it did increase 0.3% when breaking out services. Americans are now saving 3.4% of their income, up 0.2% since January.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment was down slightly in the final reading of March, falling 0.6 points to 101.4. However, this final reading was a 14-year high.

The current conditions component of the reading was up 6.3 points to 121.2. Lower income responders to the survey are feeling very good about where things are at. This accounts for much of the monthly gain.

Meanwhile, expectations were down 1.2 points on the month to come in at 88.8 there’s less confidence in the economy among those with higher incomes as the report notes they’re concerned about the Fed raising interest rates.

Inflation expectations over the next year are up just 0.1% to 2.8%. Consumers expect longer-term inflation over the next five years to be 2.5%, unchanged from the last reading.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates didn’t change much, but the changes that were made were at least in the right direction. This might be the time to jump on the opportunity if you see a rate you like while in the market for a mortgage.

The average rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage was down one basis point to 4.44%, with 0.5 points in fees. At the same time a year ago, the average rate was 4.14%.

Looking at shorter terms, with 0.5 points, the average rate on a 15-year-fixed mortgage was 3.90%, down a single basis point on the week. Last year, the average rate was 3.39%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.4 points fell two basis points to 3.66%. At this time in 2017, the average rate was 3.18%.

Stock Market

The stock market finally stemmed the tide of losses after a couple of weeks that were fairly brutal in which the indexes edged toward correction territory, helped by an uptick in the stocks of several technology companies.

Facebook, Google parent Alphabet, Netflix and Apple were all higher to end the shortened trading week, but the biggest moves were made by Microsoft. The company’s stock was up 2.1% following Thursday’s announcement of a major reorganization within the company.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 254.69 points to close at 24,103.11 points. This was a weekly increase of 2.42%. The S&P 500 finished at 2,640.87, up 35.87 points on the day and 2.03% on the week. Finally, the Nasdaq was up 1.01% on the week to close at 7,063.45, rising 114.22 points on the day.

The Week Ahead

Monday, April 2

ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 a.m.) – This index measures the general direction of manufacturing within the U.S. The qualitative survey of purchasing managers looks at production, new orders, order backlogs, inventories and supplier deliveries, among other factors.

Wednesday, April 4

Thursday, April 5

International Trade (8:30 a.m. ET) – International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It’s available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than 100 principal Standard International Trade Classification system commodity groupings.

Friday, April 6

Employment Situation (8:30 a.m. ET) – The employment situation report measures unemployment in the labor force as well as the sentiments of workers about the job market.

While this week is lacking in volume of economic data, it makes up for it in terms of importance. Today we get a manufacturing report, and Friday brings the always important employment report. We’ll have it all covered for you next week.

Maybe the Easter bunny left too much sugar around my house this weekend, but I’m having a little trouble waking up today, and it’s Tuesday. Writing about a bunch of economic data and mortgage rates doesn’t help that problem. If you’re like me, we’ve got plenty of other home, money and lifestyle content you might like to check out – just subscribe to the Zing Blog below.

If you feel like embracing the laziness a little bit yourself this morning, you might decide the Japanese decor principle of wabi-sabi is right for you. It says there’s a certain homely feeling to life’s imperfections. Try telling your spouse that next time you don’t make the bed. I’m all for avoiding chores. Have a great week!

The post Stocks Stop Skid – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/stocks-stop-skid-market-update

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aaronsniderus · 6 years

Text

Stocks Stop Skid – Market Update

Economic indicators have been up and down in their own way lately. Let’s jump into what happened this week.

Headline News

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI

Home prices were up 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the month of January. Prices were up 0.3% overall on the month and have risen 6.4% on the year.

The cities with the weakest annual growth include Chicago and Washington, D.C. – each at 2.4%.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence readings fell 2.3 points to 127.7 in March, but the reading was still very strong.

Finally, inflation expectations sit at only 4.6% after being higher in the past couple of readings.

MBA Mortgage Applications

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Nondurable goods spending is up 0.5% to 4.8%, which makes up for a 0.1% drop in spending on durable goods. Still, spending on durable goods was pretty strong because of hurricane-related replacement.

Nonresidential fixed investment was up 0.2% in revisions to 6.8% overall in the quarter. Meanwhile, residential investment was down 0.2% but is still up 12.8% overall.

An indication of where inflation stands, prices were up 2.3% on the quarter, according to this metric.

International Trade in Goods

The nation’s goods deficit increased by $100 million in February to $75.4 billion. However, what really stings was a $900 million upward revision to last month’s deficit.

Pending Home Sales Index

In terms of regional data, the Northeast was up 10.3% on the month. In the South, these were up 3.0%. The Midwest and West were trailers, up 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.

Jobless Claims

Initial claims last week came in at 215,000, down 12,000 from the week prior. The four-week moving average was down 500 to 224,500.

On the continuing claims side, these were up 35,000 to 1.871 million last week. Despite this, the four-week moving average was down 12,750 to about 1.862 million.

Personal Income and Outlays

This is known to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation. Prices have risen 1.6% in core categories and 1.8% overall on the year, just below the Fed’s 2% targets.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment was down slightly in the final reading of March, falling 0.6 points to 101.4. However, this final reading was a 14-year high.

Inflation expectations over the next year are up just 0.1% to 2.8%. Consumers expect longer-term inflation over the next five years to be 2.5%, unchanged from the last reading.

Mortgage Rates

The average rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage was down one basis point to 4.44%, with 0.5 points in fees. At the same time a year ago, the average rate was 4.14%.

Looking at shorter terms, with 0.5 points, the average rate on a 15-year-fixed mortgage was 3.90%, down a single basis point on the week. Last year, the average rate was 3.39%.

Finally, the average rate on a 5-year treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with 0.4 points fell two basis points to 3.66%. At this time in 2017, the average rate was 3.18%.

Stock Market

The Week Ahead

Monday, April 2

Wednesday, April 4

Thursday, April 5

Friday, April 6

Employment Situation (8:30 a.m. ET) – The employment situation report measures unemployment in the labor force as well as the sentiments of workers about the job market.

The post Stocks Stop Skid – Market Update appeared first on ZING Blog by Quicken Loans.

from Updates About Loans https://www.quickenloans.com/blog/stocks-stop-skid-market-update

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