team-mew-s-a

[team-mew-s-a]

Expansion Draft Step 3: Mock Draft

So here’s how I think it would go (or how it would go if I were in charge of every single team in the league).

Bay selects Sam Hiatt from the Reign

Reign protects Elyse Bennett

Utah selects Sarah Griffith from Chicago

Chicago protects Jenna Bike

Bay selects Ryanne Brown from the Reign

Reign is out of the draft

Utah selects Amanda Kowalski from Chicago

Chicago is out of the draft

Bay selects Kyra Carusa from Wave

Wave protects Sofia Jakobssen

Utah selects Thembi Kgatlana from Louisville

Louisville protects Paige Monaghan

Bay selects Tyler Lussi from North Carolina

North Carolina protects Tess Boade

Utah selects Julia Lester from Louisville

Louisville is out of the draft

Bay selects Rachel Hill from Wave

Wave is out of the draft

Bay selects Katelyn Rowland from North Carolina

Draft is over

I feel pretty comfortable with the first two selections (although Griffith and Bike could be swapped), but then Bay’s second selection is where it really could go anywhere - I think there’s a ton of good forwards available to them from teams that Utah doesn’t get to pick from, so they would probably go for an outside back or maybe a goalkeeper in this round, but that could be Ryanne Brown or Jill Aguilera, or even Laurel Ivory or Maia Pérez.  If they were to take Aguilera instead, I would say that Utah probably takes Shae Homes as their second choice and then things generally stay the same from there, and if Bay were to take a goalkeeper from Reign instead of an outside back, they would probably then take Haley Hopkins or maybe Brianna Pinto as their second choice from North Carolina.

Two things worth noting:  first, pretty much across the board, if a player that I expect to be the extra protected player doesn’t get that designation, I think they will be taken as the second drafted player.  Second, I think the decision not to protect Thembi Kgatlana initially is baffling, unless a) she wanted to leave, or b) the approach was simply to determine protected/unprotected based on how many regular season minutes each player played in 2023 to reduce locker room tensions.

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Expansion Draft Step 2:  Team Needs and Best Fits

The second step of my predicted expansion draft is to identify what positions the expansion teams need the most development in, and to identify who the best players available to them are at those positions.

Utah

Utah are pretty much covered at goalkeeper and outside back, and they have some depth in midfield and at center forward (if not necessarily strength or experience).  Their highest needs are a second center back and some wingers, and after that, midfielders.

Center backs:

Sam Hiatt (Reign)

Julia Lester (Louisville)

Shae Holmes (Reign)

Amanda Kowalski (Chicago)

Wingers:

Thembi Kgatlana (Louisville)

Paige Monaghan (Louisville) 

Sarah Griffith (Chicago)

Jenna Bike (Chicago)

Bay

Bay don’t have a goalkeeper yet, and only one forward (a winger), so I would say that a forwards (especially a center forward) are probably their top priority, but they might be more likely to look for a goalkeeper through a trade or from outside the league.  I think they have their basic midfield set up already, but they do need at least one more defender - and if the rumor that Ellie Jean is going to be traded on to Louisville is true, then two, one at center back and one at outside back.

Center forwards:

Elyse Bennett (Reign)

Kyra Carusa (Wave)

Tess Boade (North Carolina)

Haley Hopkins (North Carolina)

Wingers:

Rachel Hill (Wave)

Tyler Lussi (North Carolina)

Sofia Jakobssen (Wave)

Sarah Griffith (Chicago)

Jenna Bike (Chicago)

Center backs:

Sam Hiatt (Reign)

Shae Holmes (Reign)

Amanda Kowalski (Chicago)

Outside backs:

Ryanne Brown (Reign)

Shae Holmes (Reign)

Jill Aguilera (Chicago)

Amanda Kowalski (Chicago)

Goalkeepers:

Katelyn Rowland (North Carolina)

Shae Yanez (Wave)

Laurel Ivory (Reign)

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Expansion Draft Step 1:  Best Available Players

Ok, I’ve tried to run through a predicted expansion draft and I keep second guessing myself, so I’m going to break it down step-by-step.  First of all, for teams that are not fully protected, here are who I think their four most valuable unprotected players are, regardless of expansion team needs:

Reign*:

Sam Hiatt (defender - center back)

Elyse Bennett (forward - center forward)

Shae Holmes (defender - center back/left back)

Ryanne Brown (defender - left back)

*I don’t think it would be controversial to say that Lauren Barnes and Jess Fishlock were better players than these four this season, but the context - that they are both basically Reign lifers and any expansion team selecting them would be tanking any goodwill towards themselves throughout the league/fan base, as well as inviting potential early retirement announcements - makes them, on the whole, less selectable.

Chicago:

Sarah Griffith (forward - winger)

Jenna Bike (forward - winger)

Jill Aguilera (defender - outside back)

Amanda Kowalski (defender - center back/outside back)

Louisville:

Thembi Kgatlana (forward - winger)

Paige Monaghan (forward - winger)

Uchenna Kanu (forward - center forward)

Julia Lester (defender - center back/outside back)

North Carolina:

Tyler Lussi (forward - winger)

Tess Boade (forward - center forward)

Brianna Pinto (midfielder - defensive or attacking midfielder)

Katelyn Rowland (goalkeeper)

Wave:

Rachel Hill (forward - winger)

Kyra Carusa (forward - center forward)

Sofia Jakobssen (forward - winger)

Sierra Enge (midfielder - defensive midfielder)

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Expansion Draft: Protected List Predictions

I haven't seen any protected lists published yet, so below I've listed out who I think each team will/should protect. Other than the +1, they aren't in any particular order. We'll see how close I come soon!

Angel City:

Claire Emslie

Ali Riley

MA Vignola

Alyssa Thompson

Syd Leroux

Angelina Anderson

Amandine Henry

Jun Endo

Giselle Thompson

(+1) Scarlet Camberos

Chicago Red Stars:

Alyssa Naeher

Tatumn Milazzo

Arin Wright

Julia Bianchi

Penelope Hocking

Ava Cook

Jenna Bike

Ally Schlegel

Cari Roccaro

(+1) Jill Aguilera

Houston Dash:

Jane Campbell

Sophie Schmidt

Natalie Jacobs

Katie Lind

Diana Ordoñez

Michelle Alozie

Sarah Puntigam

Nichelle Prince

Andressa Alves

(+1) Joelle Anderson (rights)

Kansas City Current

Gabrielle Robinson

Michelle Cooper

Debinha

Lo'eau LaBonta

Haillie Mace

Elizabeth Ball

Vanessa DiBernardo

Kristen Hamilton

Morgan Gautrat

(+1) Cece Kizer

NJ/NY Gotham FC:

Lynn Williams

Yazmeen Ryan

Jenna Nighswonger

Kristie Mewis

Midge Purce

Kelley O'Hara

Maitana López

Katie Stengel

Esther González

(+1) Nealy Martin

North Carolina Courage:

Kaleigh Kurtz

Ryan Williams

Narumi Miura

Casey Murphy

Denise O'Sullivan

Kerolin

Malia Berkely

Tyler Lussi

Rikako Kobayashi

(+1) Brianna Pinto

OL Reign:

Lauren Barnes

Alana Cook

Sofia Huerta

Jordyn Huitema

Bethany Balcer

Jess Fishlock

Veronica Latsko

Quinn

Claudia Dickey

(+1) Sam Hiatt

Portland Thorns:

Sam Coffey

Bella Bixby

Morgan Weaver

Kelli Hubly

Emily Menges

Hina Sugita

Sophia Smith

Olivia Moultrie

Janine Beckie

(+1) Rocky Rodriguez

Racing Louisville:

Abby Erceg

Katie Lund

Lauren Milliet

Carson Pickett

Savannah DeMelo

Ary Borges

Jaelin Howell

Elli Pikkujämsä

Thembi Kgatlana

(+1) Paige Monaghan

San Diego Wave:

Danny Colaprico

Naomi Girma

Kailen Sheridan

Alex Morgan

Jaedyn Shaw

Rachel Hill

Sofia Jakobssen

Taylor Kornieck

Abby Dahlkemper

(+1) Kristen McNabb

Washington Spirit:

Sam Staab

Gabby Carle

Ashley Hatch

Tara McKeown

Aubrey Kingsbury

Andi Sullivan

Trinity Rodman

Ashley Sanchez

Ouleymata Sarr

(+1) Paige Metayer

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Intro

Hi all! I've just started this blog to put my thoughts on woso (primarily the NWSL) out into the world somewhere. I'm going to start with some thoughts/expectations/predictions related to the NWSL expansion draft, not totally sure where I'm going to go from there.