therealnickschultz

[therealnickschultz]

Greetings everyone. We gather once again for the Run for the Roses, the 144th Kentucky Derby, run at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs for a $2,000,000 purse. The best 2 minutes of sports, the pinnacle of the horse racing season, the time when non-horsepalyers give a shit. Whatever your reason for reading this, Welcome. I have no idea at this point how long I've been writing this letter, but I don't want to disappoint and not send it. I have watched one KYD prep race this year. Of course it was the G1 Arkansas Derby. Other years I've been more prepared, but it is what it is. Enough with the excuses and on with the picks. I'm doing this a little bit differently this year. I'll group the horses instead of writing commentary on each one. So join me now as we walk down the paddock No need to talk about these as they are not in contention, I'm not even naming them: 1, 2, 8, 13, 15, 20, 21 Superfecta: If you are going as deep as the Super, I would keep these horses on bottom in 4th: 3, 9, 12, 19 Trifecta: These are the ones I'd put in a Trifecta (in no order), so I'll explain.... #4 Flameway - He's done well recently, given the field he could jump up and grab 3rd. #17 Solomini - This son of Curlin has had decent Beyers (BSF) and prepped in Arkansas, so I'm biased. Exacta: These horses I'd put in the 2nd spot of an exotic ticket. #6 Good Magic - G1 Blue Grass winner has had some solid runs. I don't think he'll finish first, but could totally take 2nd. #7 Justify - Yeah, yeah, yeah, He's the favorite. But I believe in trends and history. I'll say it now "No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won without running as a 2YO". Take your favorite and 135 years of history and keep him off the top of your ticket. #10 My Boy Jack - Super heavy Closer. If speed prevails throughout the race, this guy could come up and take the place. I don't think he'll win, but I think he'll make the board. #16 Magnum Moon - Ah, yes. The G1 Arkansas Derby winner coming into this race Undefeated. I would generally take this as a winner in this race, but, ugh, Apollo. Not raced at 2YO. Until that is broke, I'll stand by 135 years of fact. #18 Vino Roso - JR Valeazquez had a few picks here in this race, and he chose this colt. That means something. This Jock/Trainer combo hit in 2017. The pilot knows, and he's chosen this one. THE CONTENDERS Every year I give a few Contenders that I think can do it. Very seldom is this a "I pick this horse cold" type of race. Look at the odds, the field, the options, the exotics, the best way to cash a ticket. You can pick all the longshots in the world, but will they cash? These are the ones I think will cash your ticket, if put on top. If you've been paying attention, there are 3 left. #5 Audible - Perfect improvement for a 3YO. BSF keep increasing. He's at the top of his form. Downside? JRV jumped on another after getting him here. #11 Bolt d'Oro - I was a huge fan of his Sire. Nailed the Jim Dandy, Travers that year and the Oaklawn the next. This colt has some top BSF and won the last 2 outings (after DQ). He has a lot of class and the pedigree to back it up. And he's still at the top of his game. Solid. #14 Mendelssorhn - Could you pick a better spot than the 14 hole? Now I speak a lot about trends and history, and no horse has ever gone from the Desert to the Derby. But his win at Meydan in Dubai was impressive. 18+ lengths! At the distance! Hard not to like this one. And the Queen's trainer is looking to bring him in. I think you know where I'm going with this one. I'm really stuck between #5 and #14. They will both be in the top of my tickets, but if I had to pick one .... #14 Mendelssohn There you have it. I used to give out the "$100 bet" but my means have surpassed that and I can't remember the last time I wagered less than $100 on this race. So I won't bother you with that. These are my picks. #14 to win, with the others as well. For those betting early, I'd suggest a OAKS-DERBY double ticket of: 7, 10,11, 14 over 5, 11, 14. With some extra on 10-14. As always, this is for entertainment purposes only. I hope you enjoy this note and perhaps prosper from it. I wish you all the best of luck, and as always .... SEE YOU IN THE WINNERS CIRCLE! Big Nick

[therealnickschultz]

The 143rd Kentucky Derby

It’s time for the 143rd running of the $2,000,000 G1 Kentucky Derby!  This race is shaping up to be one of the most contended renewals in a long time.  There’s a handful in here that have a legitimate chance wearing roses on the first Saturday of May.  There’s a few longer odds I like this year, and of course still some favorites.  This is going to be a tough race, which will also make it lucrative.  With these tremendous picks, your payouts could be huuuge.

The Pretenders - The only positive coming from this group is their owners will get to say they had a Derby horse.

#1 - Lookin At Lee - Hasn’t won since August, only here by virtue of a couple place and shows. He won’t show much today.

#4 - Untrapped - Only win was his maiden race, on this course, nothing on his resume impresses me.

#6 - State of Honor - Only 1 win out of 10 starts.  Doesn’t seem to honorable to me.

#12 - Sonneteer - Has never won a race. Nuff said.

#20 - Patch - Only won his maiden, here because of his 2nd place finish.

#21AE - Royal Mo - Will probably get scratched, if not he fits in here.

#22AE - Master Plan - Will probably get scratched, if not he fits in here.

The Superfectas - This group has a chance of hitting the bottom of your Superfecta ticket.

#3 - Fast and Accurate - Won his last three in a row, but only got in by winning the G3 Spiral.  His connections were confident enough in him to supplement their failure to register him as a Triple Crown nominee, by paying the $200k fee now.  Sad!  I will accurately place him out of contention.

#11 - Battle of Midway - Hasn’t won anything spectacular, but did place in SA. Not much to like here.

#16 - Tapwrit - Decent Beyer pop in the G2 Tampa Derby.  Not much else here to look at.

The Trifectas - These guys could easily catch 3rd for the Trifecta bettors.

#8 - Hence - Great hard fought win in the G3 Sunland, but nothing other than that to impress. Hence I’ll leave him in the this spot.

#9 - Irap - This son of a two time Classic winner squeaked out a win in the G2 Blue Grass to get here.  Oddly, that was his first and only win.  Not sure he can repeat that performance today.

#19 - Practical Joke - Another $1M earner by virtue of a pair of G1 wins as a 2YO.  Hasn’t yet won as a 3YO which will leave him here.

The Exactas - This group could hit the board in 2nd

#2 - Thunder Snow - Strong contender winning three Graded Stakes in a row between Dubai and France. But no horse has yet to go from the Desert to the Derby.  One of the few millionaires in the field.  He can definitely handle the distance and will make a strong argument for place.

#7 - Girvin - The top points getter this year by sweeping Fair Grounds G2 prep races. His regular jock ditched him for another in this field.  Only loss came on the grass. Hard to keep the points leader out of contention, but he’s never run very far from Bourbon St.   

#10 - Gunnevera - An early favorite but faltered in a couple of Florida preps. Could definitely sneak into second.  An interesting note, since breaking his maiden, he’s won every other race. He lost his last, so…

#13 - J Boys Echo - One of the few in this field to break the 100 Beyer mark, which is enough for me to keep in the possible second spot.

#15 - McCraken - Was lining up perfectly for this race until he didn’t fire in the G2 Blue Grass. Unbeaten prior to that with a steadily increasing Beyer fig.  Horse for the course going 3 for 3 on this track.    

The Contenders - The winner will come from this batch.

#5 - Always Dreaming - 3 for 3 this year after stretching out and a dominate win in the G1 Florida Derby. Johnny V could notch another Derby win with this one if he can repeat last performance. He’s definitely improved under Pletcher and worth keeping an eye on.  

#14 - Classic Empire - Top of the class.  Last year’s undisputed 2YO champion and Eclipse Award winner is also the top earner in this race.  He’s broken the 100 Beyer mark, and won a tough G1 Arkansas Derby to solidify his spot here.  Winner of 2 races on this course, including a graded stakes.  The favorite for a reason.  Some health issues earlier this year sidelined him, so that remains a concern.

#17 - Irish War Cry - Throw out his 2nd back and this would be the field favorite. This NJ bred son of Curlin is the only one with 2 100+ Beyer ratings.  Downside is no G2 Wood winner has even hit the Derby’s Trifecta since 2003.  With this speed I’ll keep him in high on the list.

#18 - Gormley - Can’t discount the G1 Santa Anita Derby winner as 4 of the last 5 KY Derby winners were California based.  With 3 Graded Stakes wins under his saddle, makes him look attractive.  The slow speed at SA leaves some questions.

Yeah, ok, so that’s a lot of horses at the top of the pack.  That’s how tough this race is this year.  It’s all going to come down to how you bet it.  Which can and will get complicated.  I know everyone can only pick one Derby winner, so this year I pick #17 Irish War Cry. I like the two speed figures over 100, I like that he’s got the highest last speed figure, and the pair of graded stakes. All this for a little longer odds.  

I’ve given a few winners here over the years, and I’m sure some of you are thinking “I’m really tired of winning”.  If that’s the case, this may be the year for you.  This is a tough race.  Spread your bets out, go deep on a few tickets, and pick a few long shots.  Here’s hoping you can cash a few.

See you in the Winner’s Circle,

Big Nick

[therealnickschultz]

The 142nd Kentucky Derby

Welcome to Big Nick’s Kentucky Derby Picks for the 142nd run for the roses, the G1 KENTUCKY DERBY ($2,000,000 for 3YO) .  First of all,  it will be hard, if not impossible, to beat last year’s 3 year old campaign.  I was there when American Pharoah won the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn punching his ticket to Kentucky, and I was there when he won the Triple Crown in the G1 Belmont Stakes in New York.  Both times with my favorite trackside companion, my father. That day finally surpassed my previous moment of sports glory of watching the Boston Red Sox break the curse, when I was at Busch Stadium on October 27, 2004.  Yes, the Triple Crown topped it.   Will we see another one before 30+ years?  Was the new(ish) scoring system to thank?  Will I ever top that outfit I wore to Belmont last year?  Only time will answer these questions.  But we’ve got another full field, and another horse I’ve been following throughout the prep races, and I’ve got two extra tickets to the Belmont Stakes if you’re in the area in 5 weeks.  

May may be the best time to be in NYC, but the first weekend is the time for Kentucky.  I love this sport and I love this race, so weep no more my lady, let’s get to pickin.

Pretenders

#1 Trojan Nation - Has never won a race. Don’t expect that to change today.  First of two Maidens, which is a first.

#4 Mo Tom -  Has a graded stakes win under his saddle, but not much else.

#6 My Man Sam - Only here by placing second, once.  

#7 Oscar Nominated  - He wasn’t even Triple Crown nominated, why bother.  The Spiral is the least impressive final prep race.

#12 Tom’s Ready - Ready for what, I’m not sure, but it’s not the Winners Circle today.

#18 Majesto - Don’t see it happening.

#21 Loban - No wins, ain’t happening. How did a Maiden get here again??? (probably won’t start)

#22 Cherry Wine - Didn’t even qualify for the pre-Derby list, so my thought here is …(probably won’t start)

Superfectas

#8 Lani - In here by virtue of the G2 UAE Derby win which is the only non-North American qualifier for this race.  No horse has ever gone from the desert to win the derby and I don’t think this is the one to break this streak.

#10 Whitmore - This was my pick in the G2 Rebel, but he didn’t win. He’s had enough hits on the board to qualify here, but probably won’t make news.

#16 Shagaf - Undefeated going into the G1 Wood and lost, hasn’t posted any decent numbers.  Can’t see him finishing any higher than this.

#17 Mor Spirit - Nothing impressive lately, but could end up in this spot given a couple strong places.  Plus no horse has ever won from this post.

Trifectas

#2 Suddenbreakingnews - Impressive G3 Southwest win, but it wasn’t able to catch Creator in the G1 Arkansas. The extra distance could help this closer, but it’s hard for me to cheer for a gelding in this race. I’m not trying to be Funny (Cide).  

#3 Creator - Generally I like to tout the G1 Arkansas Derby winner, but I don’t think this year’s OP champ has what it takes to win the roses.  Solid closer who likes to place more than win could catch Show here.

#19 Brody’s Cause - Formidable closer and double G1 winner, but coming from so far back may not suit him in a full field of 20 from 19.

#20 Danzing Candy - He was looking good until he didn’t show up for the G1 SA Derby.  He has hit the triple digit Beyer mark and could repeat to that level again.

Exactas

#5 Gun Runner - A couple of G2 wins under his belt, but hasn’t broken 100 Beyer and hasn’t competed with G1 company.  But somehow has the highest KYD point total. That earns some respect.

#9 Destin - Not many from Tampa end up as contenders here but posted some decent numbers in the tracks top two 3YO events.  Stepped up big from low FG Beyers, and he beat the G1 Wood and G1 Blue Grass winners.  

#15 Outwork - This lightly raced Pletcher colt barely took the G1 Wood on a cold wet day.  His biggest factor in this race will be his early speed.   He could help set/pressure the pace.

Contenders

#11 Exaggerator - This son of Curlin is a solid contender with a dominant win in the G1 SA Derby posting the highest Beyer in this field of 103, which should never be overlooked (as I did with War Emblem in 2002).  My only concern is his best performances appear be in the mud. If it’s a wet track on the first Saturday in May, he could take it.

#13 Nyquist - This was my pick for the BC Juvi and paid 5/1 while undefeated going into that race.  I’ve been following him since. Impressive G1 Florida Derby win over previously undefeated (and favorite) Mohaymen.  A total of four G1 wins under his saddle has him well prepared to win the roses.

#14 Mohaymen - This was an early favorite before laying an egg in the G1 Florida Derby and messing up my trifecta ticket. I’m not going to kick him off the top of my ticket because of one bad race. A string of impressive G2 wins keeps him in the top spot on my ticket.

I know people will lament about me picking another favorite. But I’m going with NYQUIST.  Nyquist has served me well and you don’t change horses mid stream.  How do you bet against a horse that doesn’t know how to lose?  The drop in Beyer concerns me, but he still won that race.  Where’s the flaw?  As much as I like a longshot, I like cashing tickets more. If he gets a good run here, we could set ourselves up for another Triple. If he doesn’t, it could be one of the longshots.  Which one is tough. This is a field of 20!  The largest of any North American race.  Anything can, and does, happen.  

Speaking of Longshots, if you have to go for one, take Destin.  A mentor of mine with decent horse sense turned me on to him a few days ago.  After a closer look, he’s been posting solid speed figures and has beaten G1 winners in this race.  If you can’t bet the chalk, take this guy.

And here’s what a Triple Crown looked like from my seat.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPLVf9Z-ceg

If I were a betting man, and had $100 in my pocket, this is what I would do.

$20 Win on #13 Nyquist  =$20

$2 Exacta 13 over 5, 9, 11, 14, 15  =$10

$2 Exacta Box 9,11,13,14  =$24

$1 Trifecta Box 5, 9, 11, 13, 14, 15 =$30

$5 Win, Place, Show #9  =$15

$1 tip for guy taking your bets

See you in the Winner’s Circle, Big Nick

[therealnickschultz]

The 141st Kentucky Derby

Come one, come all, and Live from New York, it's Big Nick's Kentucky Derby Picks!  This is the 141st Run for the Roses!  The most exciting 2 minutes of sports. An 8 hour wagering marathon if you start with the first race.  And a day you can hear "Hey, quit stomping on the floor and screaming at the TV" in my house.  

As I always say, this is for entertainment purposes only, no wagering, please. (notice the punctuation).  I offer these picks up for your amusement, and perhaps as financial advice.  In a field of 20, it's not easy to pick the winner.  This note has given you the winner in 2004 Smarty Jones, 2007 Street Sense, 2010 Super Saver, 2013 Orb, and 2014 California Chrome.  (At least in the wagers, even if it may not have been MY favorite) I was (properly) raised with a bit of horses sense, so I offer you my picks.  I think this is another good year where I'll be in the stands at The Belmont on June 6th, staring down the chance of a Triple Crown rounding the turn for home.   The Pretenders Throwing these out.  Not even commenting on them, it's just not worth it.  These horses will not win, and the only other thing I am certain of is that thanks to the Orioles on Wednesday, the Mets won't have the lowest attended game this year. #5 Danzig Moon, #11 Stanford (scratched), #13 Itsaknockout, #14 Keen Ice, #21 Frammento, #22 Tale of Verve (AE)

The Superfecta's I can see one of these coming in fourth, maybe. If you're crazy enough to bet a Superfecta, keep these longshots on bottom.

#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho - Only reason I'm leaving him in here is because he won a G3 race and SS thinks he's lucky. #4 Tencendur - Only keeping him in here because he popped a 100 Beyer placing in the G1 Wood, and always need some longshots on bottom. #9 Bolo - Other than being named after a tie you might see in Texas, this colt showed speed improvement when stepping up to the G company, but hasn't been able to win (or place). #16 War Story - He's placed in G2, won at Churchill, and taking off the blinkers.  Not really sure why I haven't dropped him all together. #17 Mr. Z - This show horse from the G1 Arkansas nailed my Trifecta that day.  Plus he's suspect of chewing off the tail of my eventual favorite. (really, look it up). The Trifecta's I believe these horses have a chance of coming in third, thus keep them in the 3 (&4) hole on any Tri's (& Super's). #6 Mubtaahij - Yeah, trying saying that three times in a row.  Winner of the ($2,000,000) G2 UAE Derby who, on New Year's Eve, as a 2YO, beat a field of older horses.  Most 2YO's don't do that.  He doesn't get top contention as a horse has never gone from the Desert to the Derby for a win, but he's solid in here.  (author's note: I may move him up a level before post time, but since press time is earlier, I'm leaving him here for now) #7 El Kabeir - Three G wins under his belt, and one of them here at Chruchill, but has never popped a 100 Beyer. #12 International Star - Four G wins, including the last 3 in a row down in Nawlins keeps him in here.  No G1's keeps him from the next level. #15 Frosted - A nice win in the G1 Wood, breaking a 100 Beyer are the only reasons he's in this spot. #19 Upstart - Two G2 wins and a pair of impressive Beyer's.  He's lost to others here, and the one's he's beaten I've already passed on. The Exacta's These chosen few have a solid chance of getting 2nd place prize money on Saturday, which ain't shabby. #2 Carpe Diem - 3 for 4 in G company, pulling away in his last two.  Only place was the G1 BC Juvi.  Would consider higher if he'd popped a 100 Beyer.  I may have to put him on top if I need a closer as he may "Seize the Day". #3 Materiality - Solid showing in his G1 debut.  Highest last Beyer at 110.  Great improvement and 3 for 3.  But ... "No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the KY Derby without racing as a 2YO".  Until that 133 year record is broken, I won't bet against it. #10 Firing Line - G3 win and broke 100 Beyer, and his only two places in G races has been to a favorite here, and on those he hung in by a head.  That keeps him a head above the rest, but still out of top contention.   #20 Far Right - For my Fox News loving friends, this one's for you! The one I singled in 2nd for my Trifecta win at the G1 Arkansas.  Just watch how he circled that field to come up second.  This winner of the G3 Southwest could have gained even more ground with the extra furlong he'll have in Kentucky.  If it's a closer's day at CD, I'll have him on top in a few tickets. The Contenders One of these horses will be smelling roses on Saturday.   #8 Dortmund - Undefeated. Two G1 wins. Three races over 100 Beyer's.  Steady improvement since December.  There's a lot to like about this horse.  He doesn't know how to lose.  He has a lot of hot speed on the front, he's beaten others in this race, and he's won on this course.  Except for the fact that I don't normally like left coast horses, this one is a threat. #18 American Pharoah -  4 for 4 in Graded company, 3 for 3 in G1's, including the great $1,000,000 G1 Arkansas Derby, which I was fortunate enough to see live this year.  Perfect improvement in speed figures.  Winning by more and more in his last few races.  I saw this guy cross the finish line in Hot Springs and knew we had a Triple Crown contender.  I could go on, but we're getting close to post time. Bring the naysayers.  Longtime readers of this note know I favor G1 Arkansas Derby winners, and I don't deny it.  It's my home track.  It's where I grew up on Saturday's in the spring, where I cut my teeth in this craft, and where I learned to wager before I learned to drive. BUT ... this is the real deal. I will have several tickets on this race.  But my main tickets will be in the order above. If I had to pick one?  #18 American Pharoah, easily.  I fear Dortmund.  I also fear the speed on the this field.  If speed dies, and closers start coming in, I'll have to bump up one of the closers.

PHOTO FINISH!! It's always a great day when you can spend it with your father at the track.  Here's me and mine at the Oaklawn finish line where we saw American Pharoah win the G1 Arkansas Derby three weeks ago. I wish everyone the best of luck this Saturday.   See you in the Winner's Circle, Big Nick