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This Week: North Korea Backchannels & the Texas Senate Race

Hey, Friends!

The News: A Haiku Unusual spring For Republicans balloon on the deficit

Happy Friday! Big announcements this week concerning North Korea. Trump’s nominee and current CIA Director Mike Pompeo had met with Kim Jong-Un earlier this month. North Korea also agreed to denuclearized, but have we seen this before? I’ll also me breaking down the Senate race in Texas between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke.

As always, our purpose is to take the news and break it down to a simple piece that our friends can understand. Please keep spreading the word to those who would find this helpful here.

North Korea's Easter Secret

There was breaking news Thursday that few had suspected and many did not see coming. Turns out North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un met with current CIA Director and nominee for Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo.

Quick Snapshot:

The two met secretly over the Easter weekend.

South Korea’s President Moon has been making a large diplomatic push following the Winter Olympics.

Speculation is that North and South are looking for a formal treaty ending the Korean War (1950-1953) that up until today has only been declared an armistice.

Trump and Kim Jong-Un plan to meet sometime in early June.

The meeting marks the highest level of talks since Secretary of State Madeleine Albright visited the country in 2000. Recent developments should give us glimmers of hope. There is hope that the hermit kingdom may follow a diplomatic route to dismantling its nuclear arsenal. Hope that rhetoric may die down and cooler heads prevail as Donald Trump plans to meet Kim Jong-Un face-to-face. Hope that though most senior contacts have not worked out the details prior to the June meeting, something beneficial can be achieved. North Korea promised denuclearization before. It was a time back when the Clinton and Bush administrations in the early 2000s had given sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling it's nuclear program. However, that failed as the North aggressively built up it's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities.   It is our hope that American and North Korean officials are busy working away at more than just a “meet and greet” of the two leaders. If substantial gains can be made at peace such as a reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula and there are no requirements American forces vacating South Korea - progress can be achieved.

Texas has a Senate Race

A recent Quinnipiac poll shows that Texas has a true senate race on its hands. Republican Ted Cruz polls at 47% whereas Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke’s claims 44%. That’s within the 3% margin of error on their poll - essentially a toss up. How did this happen?

Quick Snapshot:

Cruz is fighting a headwind of voters considering voting against himbased on opposition to President Trump rather than for him. The split 27% against Trump and voting for Cruz vs. the inverse 26%

Cruz has been hard on DREAMers including deportation and building Trump’s infamous “wall.”

In 2016 Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and seemed to focus more on running for President than paying attention to what O’Rourke details as “kitchen-table issues.”

Texas seems ripe for Democrats in 2018 - something unimaginable only a few months back. However, I urge cautious optimism when examining this race. First, polling this far out from an election doesn’t do much good. Polls always tighten as November rolls around. Second, there is a lot that can happen both in Texas and nationwide that could pivot the race in either direction. Third, Donald Trump.  Never underestimate what he might do between known and election day 2018 that can have a major impact on Cruz’s success or failure.

What to watch for:

Confirmation hearings for Mike Pompeo. Though he’s been criticized for a lack of diplomacy expect the North Korean issue to be a game changer.

Cuban leadership has its first transfer of power in the post-Castro world. Miguel Diaz-Canel succeed Raul Castro as President on Thursday.

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This Week: Syria Chemical Strikes and Trade Wars

Hey, Friends!

The News: A Haiku Syria chaos Legal issues for Trump Trade war escalates

Good Wednesday Morning. It's been a tumultuous week both at home and abroad, so there's no shortage of news to sum up for you. Let's just dive right in. As always, our purpose is to take the news and break it down to a simple, albeit sometimes funny, piece that our friends can understand. Please keep spreading the word to those who would find this helpful here.

Syrian Chemical Strikes The Syrian regime has once again allegedly used a chemical strike against it's citizens, killing an estimated 40 civilians on Saturday. Besides the horrific nature of this, it's caused some tension between Russia and the U.S.--the former of which does not want the latter of which to retaliate. Cohen's Office Raided by FBI Michael Cohen, the infamous personal attorney for President Trump, had his office raided by the FBI Tuesday, during which numerous documents pertaining to Stormy Daniels were seized. Trump is understandably unhappy, but this marks an interesting new phase in investigations pertaining to not only the 2016 election, but a much broader scope of potential crimes and misdemeanors. Trade War Escalates Notice how the stock markets have been a little wacky the past few days? A lot of it has to do with the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Don't expect there to be any resolution soon, but also do not call this a trade war just yet. You'll know when it's a trade war. P.S. Asian markets were mixed and Europe is down as of now--by the time you read this, Dow Jones futures will be posted and will give an indication of whether this will be a fun stock day or a not so fun stock day.

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This Week: Israeli Deportations and Roger Stone's Mishaps

Hey, Friends!

The News: A Haiku Doctor King passed away Fifty years ago Imagine the world with him

Good Tuesday Morning. We’ve been teased with some warmer weather but if you are in the New York City area hang on - we might have some snow headed our way. This week I’ll be exploring Israel’s recent deportation u-turn and checking in with Trump confidant Roger Stone and his alleged connection to wikileaks. As always, our purpose is to take the news and break it down to a simple, albeit sometimes funny, piece that our friends can understand. Please keep spreading the word to those who would find this helpful here.

Israel's Deportation U-Turn Benjamin Netanyahu suspended a plan to give temporary status to thousandsof African migrants currently in Israel in exchange for similar numbers in western countries. It is estimated that 42,000 have entered Israel via Egypt fleeing violence in the Horn of Africa. A majority of them are from Eritrea. In 2015 Eritrea was accused of crimes against humanity by the United Nationsdue to it’s one-party rule and wide scale abuse committed since independence in 1993. Benjamin Netanyahu apparently is reconsidering the deal after Rwanda pulled out of the agreement. Rwanda had apparently blocked deporations set to begin this past weekend. Factionalism quickly broke out within Israel. Older generations, notably Holocaust survivors are making the case that Israel has a moral responsibility to help these individuals. Others, mainly those in the ruling government, proposed giving lump-sum cash payments and free tickets out of Israel as a solution.   The western world seems to running away from humanist values. Either they have become to hard to implement beyond rhetoric or governing officials seem to choose between expediency and helping their fellow man. Regardless of country of origin or position, it is our job as each other’s caretaker to help one another. Who knows - maybe it could be us in need of a stranger’s help. Stone. Roger Stone. He’s suave, brilliant, and outright...bizarre? Though he may wish to be the leading man like James Bond, always one step ahead of his captor’s clutches, Roger Stone is again in hot water. This time the person on his trail is Robert Mueller. The claim? That Stone might have been acting as a go-between for the Trump campaign and Wikileaks. In August 2016, Stone claimed to have met with Julian Assange. He’s now taking back that claim and putting distance between himself and an organization that released Russian-hacked DNC emails during the 2016 election. Stone always claimed he had no knowledge of the impending leaks. However, back in October of 2016, 1 day before 60,000 emails belonging to Clinton started their infamous drip-drip, Stone tweeted that Clinton would be finished, adding in “#Wikileaks.” Stone even went on record saying he had spoken with Guccifer 2.0 who helped release some of the hacked Clinton emails. Stone had always claimed Guccifer was a vigilante acting for the sake of transparency. It was recently revealed that Guccifer 2.0 forgot to turn on his VPN, using the IP address registered to Russian GRU offices in Moscow. GRU is the Russian Foreign Military Intelligence Agency - tasked with with discharging upheaval via social media in the 2016 American election. While Robert Mueller’s team needs space to do their work - independent of outsider political interference - the circle seems to be tightening around former Trump campaign staff.  Looks like GRU isn’t just one of the characters from Despicable Me, it’s also a Russian agent watching over your social media account - I said Dart Gun not Fart Gun!

What to watch for...

California v DOJ. Look for cases ranging from EPA fuel standards for cars and trucks and federal land transfers.

Russia is asking for a White House meeting between Putin and Trump. This comes after Trump laid on congratulatory praise for Putin’s sham re-election at the end of March.

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This Week: Facebook Flounders, Kim goes to Beijing, U.S. Strikes Libya

Hey, Homies!

The News: A Haiku Facebook feels the heat Bye bye Russian diplomats Hello warm weather?

Good Wednesday Morning! It's the first week in a while we don't have a Nor'easter coming up, so I'm happy. Hope everyone else's week is going well. Today's breakdown is going to be nice and short.

Trump is "Russian" Diplomats Out Ignore my awful pun. There has been widespread response to the allegations that the Kremlin poisoned a former spy on UK soil and the U.S. has joined in solidarity, dismissing 60 Russians and their families today as Canada, the E.U., and others do the same.

Where in the World is Kim? There is speculation that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is visiting Beijing, which would mark the first time he has left the hermit kingdom since he gained power years ago. What the meeting is about has yet to be determined.

U.S. Strikes Libya The U.S. ordered airstrikes on Qaeda targets in southeast Libya, ushering in a new era of a somewhat forgotten war in a country that has been a hotbed for extremism since well before the death of former leader Gadaffi.

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This Week: U.S./North Korea Showdown, PA Heads to the Polls, Italian Elections

Hey, Homies!

The News: A Haiku Stormy Daniels Sues Italy may dump E.U. Nor'easter again?!

Good Tuesday Morning! My sincerest apologies for the lack of a newsletter last week--between the nasty weather and work the Weekly Breakdown team was a bit overloaded. I take responsibility, and can assure you the three of us will continue to do our best to get these out either Tuesday or Wednesday each week. It would be an understatement to say that the past several weeks in the White House have been tumultuous. It almost appears as if our Commander in Chief wants the "reality show" vibe he once commanded during the Apprentice. But there's plenty else going on the world as well, so let's dive right in.

President Trump and Kim Jong-Un: Match Made in Heaven? In a stunning turn of events, it was announced this week that Kim Jong-Un, leader of North Korea, had extended an invitation to meet with President Trump. Should the meeting happen (it has been tentatively scheduled for May) it would mark the first time a U.S. President sat down with a leader of North Korea. There are some questionable problems with this: despite his assertions, Trump has not proven himself to be a good negotiator. He is overly susceptible to flattery and lacks the pragmatism and clearheaded judgment of his predecessors. Things have gotten murky already as well, with Sarah Huckabee Sanders saying that North Korea must meet a series of preconditions for a meeting to happen--after Trump had said yes. We'll see how this plays out.

PA CD-18: Time to Vote! In yet another important special election, Pennsylvania voters in the 18th Congressional District will vote today in what seems to be a surprisingly close race. The democratic candidate, conservative 33-year-old Conor Lamb, is polling pretty close to republican Rick Saccone--and this is a district that Trump won by nearly 20 points in the 2016 election. Should Lamb eke out a win, it will be yet another indication that there is enough democratic momentum these days to worry the GOP for the upcoming midterm elections.

Italy's Future with the Far-Right Italy voted Sunday in parliamentary elections that propelled a stunning amount of euroskeptics (more than 50 percent) into office--an indication that the antiestablishment, right-wing movement continues to spread across Europe. The infamous Five Star Movement, founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo, won especially big in a nod to populism. The European Union is likely beginning to develop contingency plans should Italy exit the E.U. or - due to it's struggling economy - end up in a crisis not unlike the one Greece is still mired in.

What to watch...

Results of the Pennsylvania CD-18 election--polls close at 8 PM.

The Senate is expected to vote on measures that would roll back Dodd-Frank regulations on financial institutions (SMH)

One fun thing: March Madness is here and the tournament starts Thursday! Email us who you've got in the Final Four. You can create a bracket on ESPN here.

If you care about this and other issues we discuss in the Weekly Breakdown, we ask you to call your representatives to ask them what they are doing to protect our friends and neighbors. This is an admittedly progressive call tool you can use, and this is an apolitical one.

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This Week: Gun Polling, and Xi Jinping Takes China

Hey, Homies!

The News: A Haiku Did you ever wonder Why Ivanka has no shame Nepotism, period.

Good Tuesday Morning! As we are rounding out an extraordinary February, there are so many things we’d like to catch you up on. This week, I’ll be covering how the gun debate and polling has changed post-Parkland and Chinese President Xi Jinping is playing for keeps. If you like what Vicky, Colin, and myself say, please get your friends and family to sign up here.

Guns, Schools, and More Guns

The Valentine’s Day shooting left a huge hole in all our hearts. While we won’t rehash the experience and break it down, we encourage you to check out the Broward County’s Sun Sentinel’s coverage, a local paper in the affected area, to give you an accurate timeline. When polled back in October 2017, just after the Las Vegas shooting, 64% of Americans favored stricter gun laws. That number has now grown, with 70% of americans favoring universal background checks. That is the highest level of support and largest move since the Brady Bill was signed in 1993. That bill was passed in reaction to the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan, in which White House Press Secretary, Bill Brady was wounded. The tactic of the NRA seems to be getting folks talking about arming teachers in schools as a potential solution. This is a distraction from what the debate should be about, which is the prevalence of guns in the United States. We have about 330 million guns in this country, or basically one for every person. The solutions we should be thinking about are simple. Restricting access to guns has worked in every other industrialized country in the world. You get a license to drive a car; you should need a license to own and use a gun. Universal background checks and a minimum waiting period can also help law enforcement spot troubled individuals who would plan to use guns against fellow citizens. Finally, we should bring back the assault weapons ban. The ban ran from 1994-2004 and has been allowed to expire. There is no need for weapons of war to be allowed for hunting and recreational purposes. Kudos to Diane Feinstein who submitted a revised bill in November 2017.

Long Live Xi

Much like the Republican party and its embracing of Donald Trump, China has gone full-dictator.  It was announced on Monday afternoon that the Chinese Communist Party will be seeking the termination of term-limits on its presidency. Quick check: this has been the norm in China ever since Deng Xiaoping retired in 1989. Each successive presidency sought to establish balance in order to follow China’s soaring economic rise. Now that rise has been completed. For the past decade China has been pushing ahead with huge strategic initiatives in Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America. All of this has coincided with America’s decade of decadence. Shoddy stock market bubbles, two land wars in Asia, almost 0 interest in reforming our decrepit infrastructure -- the dichotomies could not be clearer. China may seem on top of the world, but there are a few downsides they should consider when taking up this new breed of authoritarianism. Dictatorships breed sycophants, rubber stamping all the ideas coming from President Xi. That leaves little room for debate, which means it will be easier for China to stumble into bad, singular positions. For all the successes Xi will be looking to achieve and take ownership for, he will also have to contend with all the pitfalls. The toxic environment, shoddy industrial regulation at the cost of hyper expansion, heavy borrowing for the housing sector, and a quickly aging demographic with no social safety net. There are many changes we should embrace as a nation. We have many shortcomings and areas to improve. Our congress seems apathetic and dysfunctional. Yet, at the end of the day, we have the power to remove all of that with the right to vote. It’s our blessing as Americans. Not exercising this right misplaces our power as citizens. If citizens are not the ones to right the wrongs, President Xi surely won’t.

What to watch...

The NRA and politicians' backlash to corporate America cutting ties.

DACA after the Supreme Court refuses to take the case.

Americans re-evaluating Monica Lewinsky in the age of the #MeToo movement.

If you care about this and other issues we discuss in the Weekly Breakdown, we ask you to call your representatives to ask them what they are doing to protect our friends and neighbors. This is an admittedly progressive call tool you can use, and this is an apolitical one.

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This Week: Florida Shooting, Wife Beating, and...the Olympics?

Hey, Homies!

The News: A Haiku Guns don't kill people Angry, expelled students do Let's all buy more guns

Happy Thursday, and a belated Happy Valentine's Day. I'll rant a bunch in the main text and instead just stay positive up here in the intro: the stock market correction has (for now) subsided, Homeland is back on TV (I love Homeland) and...that's about it. If you think your friends would enjoy the cynicism this newsletter employs, have them sign up here.

Tragedy in Florida

Yesterday brought yet another example of why the astonishing lack of gun control remains so astonishing. A 19-year-old in Florida who had been expelled from his school returned with an assault weapon and managed to kill 17 people, with more than another dozen remaining in the hospital. To say this is shocking would be a lie. The NRA and the lawmakers they donate to have made clear their position: guns are not the problem. That will remain the message again and again. It doesn't make what happened yesterday any easier--certainly not for those who lost loved ones. For a country that takes terrorism so seriously in other forms, it will never not be disturbing how little is done to curb gun violence.

Olympics!

On to some better news: the Olympics are up and running, and the U.S. has done well so far, taking several gold medals among a total of 8. Personally, I'm obsessed with curling, but the real star so far has been Chloe Kim, arguably the best female snowboarder in the world at just 17. You rock, Chloe!

The White House Has a DV Problem

Two WH staffers - including Rob Porter, a senior staffer - have now resigned amid domestic violence accusations. What's worse than domestic violence? John Kelly, the Chief of Staff, allegedly knew about it and did nothing for months. As a reminder, President Trump has been accused by more than a dozen women of sexual misconduct and has simply called them all liars. What's the saying? Oh, yeah: you are the company that you keep.

What to watch...

The Olympics! We need some joy in our lives these days.

If you care about this and other issues we discuss in the Weekly Breakdown, we ask you to call your representatives to ask them what they are doing to protect our friends and neighbors. This is an admittedly progressive call tool you can use, and this is an apolitical one.

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This Week: Corrections and Nuclear Warfare?

Hey, Homies!

The News: A Haiku Justice retreats And only Twitter remains Please God help us all.

Good Morning! Hopefully any emotions swirling around the Super Bowl have subsided. You have to admit, regardless if your preferred team won or lost, it was a pretty satisfying game with some decent commercials of Tide trolling the audience. This week I’ll be reminding the president that the stock market is not the economy, updating you on the nuclear modernization laid out in the State of the Union, and Space X’s Falcon Heavy Launch and its significance in space flight. Keep on keeping on and tell your friends about the Breakdown and sign up here.

About that Correction

For a president who loves economic numbers -- when it’s under his watch -- Monday was not the best of days. For the past year the president crossed the country making speech after speech touting his economic agenda. He capped this performance with his pièce de resistance, signing legislation in December that provided major tax cuts for large corporations and businesses. The flip side is that this same law gave nearly nothing to those in our society facing the blight of poverty and destitution. Oh and if you did get something and you’re in the middle class, expect to start paying more in the next 6 years.

Well, reap what you sow. Not only was there a 2.5% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week, of 666 points, but Monday saw another major sell off. Marking the largest point drop in the Market’s history, the DJIA declined 1,175 points, equivalent to 4.6%. Now, the fundamentals point to a fairly robust economy. Unemployment is at a record low and non-farm payroll jobs increased to 200,000 for January. There is solid strength and reason to act bullish on the economy. Donald Trump wishes to take credit for this. However, there are leading indicators that Trump’s claims fall short. Trends over the past 88 months of record job growth started under Barack Obama in 2009. While there is something to be said for the massive partisan swing in the perception of the economy following Trump’s election, it takes time for each successive president’s policies to have an affect. If anything, heavy future borrowing like the Trump tax cuts could overheat the economy, resulting in a raising of interests rates. Raise the rates, and it costs people more to pay back their student loans, mortgage their house, buy a car, etc. So while Donald may be galavanting around the country praising his stewardship skills while picking a fight with virtually everyone, the impact of his agenda will slowly start to permeate, and boy, will that impact be with us for a while.

Call of Duty: Nuclear Warfare?

The Trump administration released a Nuclear Posture Review last Friday. The report, the first since 2010, seems par for the course with this administration that loves undoing things simply because, well, Obama. The report is downright reckless. It calls for the use of "low-yield" nuclear warheads for submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The goal here that they would be “...able to penetrate adversary defenses." This strategy assumes that there is a tolerance level for a limited nuclear strike, be it on a battlefield or specific target. Can we just absorb that fact? A limited nuclear strike, say, on a military target in Iran, that may or may not be far enough away from civilians, is an acceptable policy to pursue? Sure, you’ll hit the damn thing, but what about the precedent this sets. Yes, this administration seems to love breaking that word, precedent, but doing that has catastrophic consequences downstream. Nuclear fallout, radiation poisoning, PR, violation of nuclear arms agreements such as the INF, the list goes on.

The forceful change has a lot to do with what is going on abroad. Russia and China are engaging in massive military modernization methods. Simply check out a recent reportfrom the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace that details Russian modernization methods taking place. You can also examine the RAND corporation’s assessment of Chinese and American capabilities here. Sure, it’s a changing, dynamic, and frightful world out there, but let’s add some perspective. Russia has rarely operated out of its “near-abroad” aka the former Soviet satellite states and neighbors. Yes, Syria, Georgia, and Ukraine are all examples of pushing this envelope. However, I would argue that these engagements reflect less of a strategy than that of a more tactical opportunity conditioned by other factors.

Finally, understand that the United States has 6,800 nuclear weapons. Russia has 7,000. Most nuclear accords were between these two countries. In the last 30 years we’ve added 3 nuclear weapon proliferators to this list (India, Pakistan, and North Korea) which was at a faster pace than the previous 50. If anything, that’s a sign that technology is speeding up nuclear adoption, not slowing it down - shouldn’t that be the priority?

Elon Musk - Starlord

If you missed the launch at 3:45pm EST yesterday, then you missed a little bit of history. Space X’s Falcon Heavy had a successful launch. The Falcon Heavy is currently the largest operational rocket in the world. Only dwarfed in historical terms by the Apollo Saturn V rocket which last flew in 1973. But what about this launch was so great besides size? It marked the first time that a private company, not a government agency, successfully launched a rocket this large into near Earth orbit. The payload consisted of Musk’s personal Tesla Roadster which is currently blaring “Space Oddity” by David Bowie in an endless loop - though no one will hear it. The car will be most likely be parked in a Hohmann transfer orbit (aka an orbit between Mars and the Sun) and will remain there for thousands of years, untouched. Most importantly both first-stage rocket boosters successfully landed back on Earth. Retrieving these rockets helps bring down the cost of each successive launch, which is part of Space X’s M.O. What’s next? The company plans to send two tourists around the Moon by the end of this year.

What to watch...

Reports have been coming out that Donald Trump wants a military style parade akin to France’s Bastille Day celebrations.

The Winter Olympics kick off Friday in Pyeongchang, Korea. They will also be one of the coldest on record.

Gerrymandering has been given a swift kick in Pennsylvania. However, politicians have been threatening to impeach the Supreme Court judges in retaliation. Hello 2018.

If you care about this and other issues we discuss in the Weekly Breakdown, we ask you to call your representatives to ask them what they are doing to protect our friends and neighbors. This is an admittedly progressive call tool you can use, and this is an apolitical one.

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This Week: Immigration Nation

Happy Thursday, Homies!

The News: A Haiku What government shut

down? Was that a week ago?

Immigrants got screwed.

My sincere apologies for the lack of a Breakdown last week. The combination of a government shutdown, the Vikings loss, and a couple curveballs hindered my ability to give you all a quality update. With that said, we had a crazy two weeks in the news and because of that I’m going to focus on one cross-cutting issue in particular: immigration policy. Without even getting into the SOTU (we'll save that beaut for next week), it has been a wild and at times extremely disheartening few months in immigration policy. From the government shutdown, to the widening ICE deportation nets, to the unsure Temporary Protected Status of hundreds of thousands of vulnerable US residents, to family reunification, immigration policy is being significantly reshaped by the executive branch. Behind the racist “shithole” comments, the current administration has also made restricting immigration and arresting and deporting immigrants a central feature of its executive policy, as evidenced by the typical anti-immigrant rhetoric at the SOTU.

But before we delve into immigration, remember to share this newsletter with your friends if you find the perspectives it offers interesting, and let us know if you have any thoughts or feedback! As a special preview, next week we will be sharing a reader response to our last Weekly Breakdown deep dive on opioid policy.

The Immigration Shutdown... That Wasn't

While we were away, just one week ago the government reopened after much to-do about nothing, apparently. In mid-January, Congressional Democrats appeared poised to reject a temporary spending bill that lacked an agreement for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients, as well as other key compromises. After a short-term spending bill passed in the House largely along party lines, Senate Democrats refused to give the majority Republicans the 60 votes they needed to pass a bill. The government shutdown on Friday, January 19, or at least parts of it started to. Then, just three days (and one work day) later, the Senate passed a short-term spending bill through February 8 that reopened the government in return for 6 years of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and (ostensibly) movement on a deal on DACA (promised by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) by February 8 (or else?). That's only a week away at this point. Note that the current spending agreement does not include a deal for the Dreamers (DACA recipients). Many decried the Democrats' move as terrible politics, and when it comes to immigration, it seems to indicate that Senate Democrats are not willing to stand their ground on increasingly hardline conservative policies. Yet in this never-ending political merry-go-round of legislative politics, one week from now another spending bill and possible Senate fights will be in the works, with no deal on DACA or myriad other immigration issues in sight.

The Deal with DACA (That Also Wasn't)

How did we get here? If you remember September 2017 (I know, it was forever ago), the Trump administration, although under no deadline or legislative pressure to do so, announced that it would be rescinding protections for DACA recipients and ending the program. DACA protects around 800,000 people from deportation who emigrated to the US as children, allowing them to work and attend school as long as they paid a fee, renewed their status every two years, and maintained a clean criminal record. Even according to the conservative CATO Institute, rescinding the program would cost the US economy around $280 billion. (Chump change, when you’re tossing $1.5 trillion tax cuts around.) Expanding the program could cover up to 1.8 million people who - for various reasons - didn't apply the first time or weren't eligible.

Instead of proposing a new policy, the administration punted DACA to Congress, stating that it was the Legislature’s responsibility to make immigration policy, and gave Congress a 6-month deadline to act (AKA March 2018). After many, many episodes of back and forth between an erratic White House and both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, on January 9, the President held a televised meeting in which he seemed amenable to an immigration deal favored by Democrats that included a path to citizenship for the Dreamers. Then, as a bipartisan group of Congresspersons presented the President with a deal, he made his infamous (and deeply racist, offensive, and incorrect) “shithole” comments. The deal he rejected provided a path to legalization for the Dreamers, funding for border security, an end to the visa lottery system, and an extension of previously rescinded Temporary Protected Status for Haitians displaced by the 2011 earthquake.

At this point, you might be saying to yourself: Wait… so there was a bipartisan deal on immigration… surely an historic legislative accomplishment… and he just… said “shithole” countries?

Yes. One very important point to note, however, is that the President specifically referenced the Haitians protected under the TPS system (really, really sorry Haiti and all Haitians; I cannot stress enough how much we disagree with these comments). TPS is a small part of our immigration system that essentially grants temporary asylum to those displaced by natural disasters or conflicts. This administration may have flip-flopped on DACA, but its extreme stance on TPS has been clear for many months now, as it has systematically dismantled the program’s protections with executive power.

TPS – like the refugee resettlement program – represents the low-hanging fruit of a restrictive immigration policy. The executive branch has total latitude in its enforcement and existence (unless Congress passes legislation to protect recipients), and the administration has been systematically rescinding TPS from large groups of people in the last year. In September, DHS ended TPS status for people from Sudan; in November, TPS was rescinded from Nicaraguans (1998 hurricane) and Haitians (2010 earthquake); this month, 260,000 Salvadorans lost their status (1998 hurricane). The home countries of these people are themselves advocating for the program to be reinstated and extended, and the NAACP has sued the administration over the policy, arguing that they are still not safe to return to places that continue to be devastated by disasters both natural and manmade.

As I write this newsletter, nearly 450,000 people have TPS in the United States, and two-thirds of them are in imminent danger of losing their protections after living in this country for years. Syrians with TPS (about 7,000 people who were largely in the US when the civil war began) just received an 18-month extension of their status, but additional Syrians will not be able to apply for protections after March 31. Regardless of the word “temporary” in TPS, countries can take decades to recover from the devastation of disasters and war. The moniker “temporary” represents wishful thinking, and none of these places are by any means safe or secure for TPS recipients, just because some artificial deadline for “temporary” has passed.

No Deal is a Good Deal (If You're Stephen Miller)

The specific attack on TPS is one part of a wider assault on legal immigration channels, in addition to the attack on DACA, which represents a step towards legalization. Refugee resettlement numbers have dwindled to record lows. Millions of immigrants in this country are living every day with the reality of an ICE crackdown that no longer heeds clean criminal records and contributions to American society. Beneath the failure to get a deal for the Dreamers, Congress is also failing to actively protect any of the vulnerable people who are under attack by the immigration policies of this administration. That goes for both Democrats and Republicans. Regardless of the political wisdom of their actions in the (barely there) shutdown, both parties bear responsibility for the protection of these US residents as well as their US citizen communities.

If you care about this and other issues we discuss in the Weekly Breakdown, we ask you to call your representatives to ask them what they are doing to protect our friends and neighbors. This is an admittedly progressive call tool you can use, and this is an apolitical one.

One Last Thing...

Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe announced he is stepping down after both private and public criticism by Trump. Yes, Trump even asked McCabe who he voted for in the 2016 election.

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This Week: North vs. South and DHS Cruelty to Latin Americans

Happy Wednesday, Homies!

The News: A Haiku

Sometimes we wonder

Where are the racists are

Turns out they are in congress

Happy 2018! As we kick off a new year we hope that whatever your resolutions might be start with compassion and care for your fellow humans. If we learned anything from last weekend’s Golden Globes ceremony it’s that we need to start treating and trusting each other more. Whether that’s respect, dignity, taking the time to listen, or honoring promises to act well towards our fellow man, we need to remember that in this new year we could all use some kindness. Spread the word on

our newsletter

and let us know your thoughts!

All the best,

Vicky, Craig, and Colin.

That North/South Divide

It started with Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Day address. The North Korean leader offered his usual bombastic flair aimed at the United States. Citing that “...the entire area of the U.S. mainland is within [North Korea’s] nuclear strike range.” Seemingly nothing has changed on the Korean peninsula except the dates on the calendar. However, in a surprising overture, Kim Jong Un called for direct talks with South Korea. Why the sudden change? For one, sanctions have been ratcheted up on the hermit kingdom in response to increased missile testing, increased accuracy and missile payload, and nuclear weapons tests. Deterrence does not seem to be winning out here. Additionally, North Korea’s reliance on China as a major export keeps the economy bumping along socialist style. Another reason for the overture? Driving a well placed wedge between the United States and South Korea. President Moon Jae-In, who was campaigned last year calling for a change in the South’s policy towards the North, welcomed the news. While the response in the United States was more muted, even considering a "bloody-nose" attack to humiliate the North. Regardless, North and South Korean officials met along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) to discuss a broad range of issues. Most pressing was North Korea’s delegation to the winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. The talks marked the first official discussions since 2015, yet signaled a departure of unity with the United States who has been pursuing a tougher line to reign in missile testing. Despite the rhetoric spinning out of control on Twitter, each other’s respective governments seemed to tacitly agree that things were getting a little out of hand. The gesture of goodwill was accompanied by the agreement by the United States and the Republic of Korea to hold off on any military drills until after the winter olympics. The drills have often been a thorn in North Korea’s side - always viewing the drill as a dry-run of invasion. Though the talks signal progress there is no guarantee that anything will come of them. It’s of our opinion that it’s better to talk to your enemy - in any capacity - than make judgements in a vacuum. 200,000 Injustices and Counting The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced 200,000 people who sought refuge from El Salvador are losing their protected status and being forced to leave the country in the next 18 months. The cruel order, given late Monday afternoon, continues to mark the shift of remaking American immigration inhumane, unjust, and the antithesis of our founding beliefs. So how did they end up in the United States in first place? Turns out that after twin devastating earthquakes hit the country in 2001, the United States granted the victims Temporary Protective Status (TPS) to flee the wreckage. However, over time, no final decision was made and these people established themselves by starting families, securing jobs, and paying taxes. The U.S. was a very different country back in January and February 2001. George W. Bush had just been inaugurated and the U.S was engaged in a more humanitarian and just policy towards the disadvantaged and helpless. However, it’s important to remember that traditionally the United States has underperformed in accepting refugees when compared to other countries size and populations. The U.S. Government’s decision of reversal only added to the threat of 800,000 DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) recipients facing deportation. That fact, combined with 50,000 Haitians losing their protected status after earthquakes and cholera ravaged their country in 2010, makes the public relations creulty that much worse.   Make no mistake these policies mark a steady reversal against humanitarian policies traditionally found in the United States. While the reversals may sting with a sense of cruelty and vigor, the United States will ultimately be the one to feel the pain. Not immediately, not in the near-term, but further down the road as these senseless acts take their toll on American soft power in Latin America and around the world. And while the DHS says it’s up to Congress to give these individuals an alternative path and decide their fate, we’ve sadly seen how low recalcitrant Republicans are willing to go. What to watch:

Falling further from grace was 2001 Derelict Campaign star, Steve Bannon, after he was fired from Breitbart news and had public disagreements with the President. This comes a week after the Washington blame game from Michael Wolff's Fire and Fury. The book published on January 5th, provided damning evidence of a White House unhinged.  

Fusion GPS - the firm behind the Trump Dossier, had it's congressional testimony published by Senator Diane Fienstein.

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This Week: Taxes, Foreign Policy Confusion, Chilean Election

Happy Wednesday, Homies!

The News: A Haiku

Tax breaks for Christmas

But only for rich people

Like our president

All I asked for this Christmas was a Trump indictment and Santa has yet to deliver--although Mueller continues to work his way through this investigation so deftly that my guess is my present just hasn't arrived yet.

I hope everyone is having a good winter and holiday season so far. We'll be off next week, and I hope you are too--I think it's safe to say we all need a break these days.

Please share this newsletter if you like our breakdowns, and let us know what we could do better!

P.S. Shout out to my mom, whose birthday is today! Love you mom. - Colin

Tax Bill Scam

Finally fulfilling Rep. Paul Ryan's boyhood dream of giving tax breaks to the wealthy at the expense of low- and middle-income Americans, Congress is slated to pass its tax bill today and have it on Trump's desk before the holidays. After the House passed the bill yesterday afternoon, it was discovered that several provisions in the bill broke Senate rules--so the bill the Senate passed late last night is a revised version and will go back to the House this morning for what should be guaranteed passage. The bill has a 26% approval rating--no easy feat. For perspective, the Affordable Care Act polled around 40% when it passed in 2011 (and has an average approval rating today of 51%) and that still cost multiple democratic Congress members their seats in the following elections. The bill will have serious repercussions, most of which fall on the working class: the repeal of the individual mandate may cause as many as 13 million Americans to exit the health insurance marketplace and become uninsured, while gutting Obamacare marketplaces for everyone else; within a decade, taxes will actually increase for families and individuals making less than $75,000; and the deficit will increase by $1.5 trillion. At least President Trump gets to save as much as $11 million a year thanks to the new bill. Conservatism's Moment in Latin America The Chilean election on Sunday night was the latest indication that South America is increasingly shifting to the political right. Billionaire Sebastian Piñera won 54% of the vote to secure the presidency, running on a conservative platform and replacing a more socialist predecessor. Chile joins Brazil and Argentina, which have both in recent months seen elections favor more rightist candidates. Trump's Foreign Policy Paradox On Monday, Trump released his National Security Strategy (NSS), a document that presidents use to outline their foreign policy agenda and help shape the way America interacts with - and protects itself from - the rest of the world. The problem with Trump's NSS is that it completely contradicts what is being implemented in terms of strategy. The document paints China and Russia as threats to America, yet Trump has done little to deal with China (he exited the TPP, which was the best possible tool for curbing Chinese influence in Asia) and clearly has strong ties to Russia. And the document touts diplomacy while Trump is gutting the State Department. And, just for fun: Trump's NSS opens with the sentence, "The American people elected me to make America great again." Obama's last NSS (2015)? "Today, the United States is stronger and better positioned to seize the opportunities of a still new century and safeguard our interests against the risks of an insecure world."  

What to watch:

Congress needs to reach a deal on spending by Friday or else there will be a government shutdown.

Tax bill heads to the House today, the Senate tomorrow.

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This Week: Nullifying Mueller, Alabama Votes, and Susan Collins?

Happy Tuesday, Homies!

The News: A Haiku

Fox News gets louder

when Mueller gets closer

the dumpster fire rages

Continuing the haiku theme Vicky brought you last week, here's my own representation of the news of the week and we have lots to unpack. A full assault by conservative media outlets against the integrity of Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Today’s special election in Alabama between alleged-child molester, Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones. Finally, Susan Collins, the U.S. Senator from Maine who may be wavering on her support of the Republican Tax plan.

Please share this newsletter if you like our breakdowns, and let us know what we could do better!

Special Counsel Scrutiny

We’ve seen Robert Mueller act swiftly and decisively in tackling the Russian interference in the 2016 election. He is a disciplined patriot who is following where the evidence leads. Yet, if you listen to conservative media outlines, you would think something else entirely. This past weekend, Fox News’ Gregg Jarret wrote a piece detailing the partisan plot of Bob Mueller and his witch hunt. In it, Jarret lashes out at the credibility of the investigation, citing democratic donations from people around the Special Counsel, his bias for ‘abusive tactics’, and the recent firing of an FBI agent over anti-Trump texts. It’s worth a read simply because it shows how facts in America have been completely destroyed when self-serving, (and dangerous) narratives can be created out of any opinion. Don’t forget Jeanine Pirro's insane rant about “cleansing” the FBI. This is the stuff of tin-pot dictators. The numbers show this too. Only 56% of Americans believe Bob Mueller will conduct the investigation fairly. That number increases when polled with Democrats and decreasing among Republicans. Even when news breaks from the latest indictments, Fox News doesn’t even bother to cover the issue; leaving viewers uninformed of what is happening. Fox, partially led by de-facto leader Sean Hannity, is doing a full court press on Mueller’s credibility. The reason? Solidifying and preserving Trump’s base as a method of insulating the 45th President. If Trump is properly insulated from any potential crimes Mueller digs up, it’s up to the Republicans in the House to decide on impeachment. And if there’s no pressure from their constituents since they have been spoon-fed an alternate reality, then, voila - Mr. Trump gets to keep his job. My guess is that the louder the calls get on Fox for removing Mueller, the closer Mueller is to closing in on the President. Let’s see what Mueller might bring us for Christmas. I'll Have Allegations for $200 please, Trebek Today is a big day for Alabamians. They will decide who will succeed Jeff Sessions’s old Senate seat. There are two current contenders, Democrat Doug Jones, who successfully prosecuted members of the KKK back in the 1970s, or Republican Roy Moore - former judge battling allegations of child molestation. On Sunday, Richard Shelby, the state’s senior senator, explained that he would not be voting for Roy Moore, opting to write-in a candidate of his choosing. The senator went further, claiming “I think the women are believable. I have no reason not to believe them. I didn’t vote for Roy Moore. I wouldn’t vote for Roy Moore. I think the Republican party can do better.” This might be too little, too late. Moore currently holds a lead in the polls, though FiveThirtyEight notes Jones is within the margin of error and stands a decent chance. Results will be coming in tonight as soon as polls close at 8pm EST. I’m pessimistic on this one.  You would hope that in this day and age, an alleged child molester would pay the political price. However, it seems that Alabamians cannot stomach sending a Democrat to represent them. It shows the deep hatred for the Democratic brand in 2017. While I would be happy to be proved wrong on this call, I wish that the seriousness of the allegations would affect the certainty of the outcome that much more.

The Susan Collins Game Changer?

"I would consider changing my vote..." Those words, spoken from Maine’s senior senator, highlighted the peril the Trump tax plan could face. Susan Collins, a Republican, wants to see how the tax plan will turn out once reconciled in conference committee.  Why would the senator consider changing her vote? Well, a few weeks ago when the Republicans rammed through unpopular, unwanted, and unneeded legislation for tax “reform,” she apparently got a verbal deal with majority leader Mitch McConnell. That deal? “...That the Senate would pass two bipartisan pieces of health-care legislation, the Alexander-Murray and Nelson-Collins bills, which would stabilize insurance markets.”

Even if given that concession, Speaker Paul Ryan shows no interest in pursuing any reform related to saving the Affordable Care Act. So ends another sad story of integrity that could have been there, but was sadly missed. Count Collins in the yes column for her vote since the probability of this happening is quite low. If you’re looking for another tale of horse-trading during the GOP rush of legislation, check out Jeff Flake. He traded his vote away for a measly promise of a meeting with leadership on DACA, or Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.

Jerusalem

Incompetency wins again. Here’s a quick rundown on what the president did and why it’s poorly thought out.

Jerusalem is supposed to be the capital of both Israel and Palestine. Or in legalese, corpus separatum. The city would be recognized as international territory and administered by the United Nations. Please note it says this on Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ website.

Trump gave it away for nothing. Well, not nothing, it might win with voters in Alabama and his religious base, but really!? Get something out of the Israelis on settlement building to sweeten the deal. A great deal maker, the Donald is not.

Discord among our allies - make America great? How about make America small. Small and alone on the world stage where no one else seems to even understand what or why the United States is pursuing policies that only sow discord and hate.

My advice? The next president, if they have any sense in them, should recognize Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state. Effectively nullifying Trump’s recognition. Sure, it forces the U.S. to accept Palestine, but what else can we do now that we’ve angered most of the world? It could even jump start a new peace process to resolve the issue once and for all.

What to watch:

More accusers coming out in full force against the President now that the #metoo campaign has really taken off. Expect their voices to add to the cacophony of deceit and lies surrounding his administration.  

More information coming out from the bombing at New York’s Port Authority. Granted we are happy the suspect was caught and no one was seriously injured. But the real inconvenience to New Yorkers were the subway delays. Shows how resilient NYC is when facing cowardly acts.

Finally, a Happy Hanukkah to everyone celebrating tonight!

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This Week: Tax Grabs, Creepwatch 2017, Flynn, Egypt, and Jerusalem (phew)

Happy Wednesday, Homies!

The News: A Haiku

Apparently we

are okay with pedophiles

and tax scams and lies.

This week, the news got so crazy that I wrote a haiku poem about it in our Weekly Breakdown group chat. We decided it should be the lead. After a post-Thanksgiving hiatus, the rate of bombshell news stories breaking only seems to have increased. Do these people not know that it is supposed to be the holiday season? From taxes, to the Alabama Senate race, to a massive terrorist attack in Egypt, and everything in between (Russia, as usual), we’ve got you covered in this edition of the Weekly Breakdown. Strap into your seatbelts, because this one’s a doozy.

Please share this newsletter if you like our breakdowns, and let us know what we could do better!

Tax Bill Passes Senate

This week, in a frenzied process that took place in the middle of the night and included hand-scrawled notes in the margins, the Senate passed its version of tax reform. The vote came when the viability of the bill – one of the least popular pieces of legislation since attempts at ACA repeal – had been in question in previous weeks. Holdout Republicans ended up almost all voting for the bill, with the exception of Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) who voted against the bill over its effects on the deficit. The Senate bill differs from the House bill in important but not insurmountable ways: the Senate imposes a time limit on individual provisions (but not corporate ones); eliminates the ACA insurance mandate; and preserves or extends some popular deductions like the mortgage interest deduction, among other differences.

Because of the slapdash process by which the Senate bill was passed, Senators had not read the full bill at the time it was voted on. Initial analysis of the Senate bill projects that it will balloon the deficit by approximately $500 billion, half of the House bill’s projected $1 trillion deficit increase but still enough to put paid to any notion that Senate and House Republicans are deficit hawks. The passage of conflicting versions of the bill in the House and Senate mean that the bill will proceed to a conference to create a single bill, which then needs to be passed by both chambers again and signed by the President. With their first major legislative accomplishment in view, it is looking increasingly likely that Congressional Republicans will vote on a compromise bill by the end of the month, if the government doesn’t shut down that is. This is far from a done deal, and you should get on the phone to let your representatives know your thoughts on the tax bills and how it will affect you.

Creepwatch: Conyers, Franken, Lauer, and Moore In the awful men segment of our breakdown, the list of accused predators and fallen power brokers grows daily. Matt Lauer, NBC news host of 20 years, was fired for sexual harassing a coworker, who reported the complaint to HR recently. The “Today” host has since been accused of sexual harassment and assault by other colleagues, and in an extremely creepy move reportedly had a button installed under his desk that allowed him to lock his office door. Congressman John Conyers (D-Michigan) resigned on Tuesday following multiple allegations of sexual harassment and (eventual) calls from House Democratic leadership to step down. Senator Al Franken (D-Minnesota) has remained in his post pending an ethics investigation into mounting claims of harassment and assault against him, despite calls from many corners on him to step down as well. Meanwhile, in the media world, Matt Lauer was fired as a cohost on NBC’s most lucrative show, “Today,” less than 24 hours after a colleague contacted HR with a complaint of sexual harassment stemming from 2014. Since then, five more women have come forward with complaints, including one of sexual assault: “He allegedly gifted them sex toys with explicit notes, sent them lecherous text messages, scrutinized their looks, and compared their presumed performance in bed to their performance at work. He summoned one woman to his office and whipped his dick out, then berated her when she refused him. He allegedly locked the door behind another, bent her over a chair and had sex with her until she passed out.” – Lizzie Crocker, Daily Beast Lauer’s ouster comes on the tails of that of Charlie Rose, who also was fired from his television hosting positions following allegations of harassment and assault. Finally, in Alabama’s closely watched Senate race (and after this one you can go scream into a pillow), President Trump became the first sitting US President to endorse an accused pedophile for Congress, officially throwing his weight behind Roy Moore, the Republican candidate. Nine women thus far have accused Moore of sexual misconduct, including harassment, attempted assault, and sexual assault of a minor. Despite these serious allegations and mounting evidence against Moore, as well as earlier withdrawal of RNC support and a call from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to step aside in the race, yesterday Moore received not only the White House’s endorsement, but also the re-engagement of the RNC in the Moore campaign. This is not entirely surprising from a party that eventually embraced and now is led by an admitted sexual predator who has been accused of harassment and assault by twenty (that would be 20) women. Trump’s endorsement certainly isn’t surprising, but it does make the race to elect Doug Jones over Roy Moore even more urgent for anyone who thinks a sexual predator who assaulted children has no place in the US Senate, regardless of party. As such, Weekly Breakdown co-founder and lead contributor Colin Wolfgang is matching any donations made to Doug Jones through the election next week (12/12). Email your donation receipts to him at cwolfgang89@gmail.com.

What to Watch: Because of the Thanksgiving break and the usual flood of news that continues to pour in even when we tune out, there’s plenty of recent developments to keep an eye on this week. First off, a main story in its own right…

…Michael Flynn: Last Friday, former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn pled guilty to lying to the FBI. It was a much lesser charge than he might have faced, but Flynn is now fully cooperating with Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation. Cue “lock him up” jokes and a healthy dose of schadenfreude. Many analysts have speculated that if Flynn – who was under investigation for much more serious crimes like an international kidnapping plot – received such a cushy deal, it must be in return for some real dark dirt on the Trump family and administration. Stay tuned, folks.

Egypt: More than 305 people were killed and 128 injured in Egypt on November 24 when militants attacked a Sufi mosque in the Sinai in the largest terrorist attack in Egypt’s modern history. While Coptic Christian churches are frequent targets of extremist attacks, the attack on a Sufi mosque is a departure for extremist groups, despite the fact that many designate the Sufi branch of Islam as heretical. ISIS has yet to claim responsibility, but eyewitnesses report that the attackers carried the group’s signature black flag during the attack.

Jerusalem and a Muslim Ban: Trump’s White House continued to wreak havoc on Middle Eastern politics, in a region where there are plenty of other tectonic shifts underway without US-led controversies. Tuesday Trump called Middle Eastern leaders to give them a friendly heads up that he plans to move the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing it as the capital of Israel. Their response: Um, could you not? The move is guaranteed to create unrest and stoke anti-American feelings in much of the Middle East, and would break with every other country on earth (and the International Court of Justice), all of which do not recognize the Israeli occupation of Jerusalem as legal. At the same time, the infamous “Muslim Ban” (3.0?) has been reinstated by the US Supreme Court, allowing the order to take full effect even while the rule is being appealed in the justice system.

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This Week: Germany Elections, Doug Jones, and #MeToo

Happy Tuesday, Homies! Hope everyone is cruising through their short week (if you're not already off) and looking forward to a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. Despite the apocalyptic state of affairs these days, there's plenty to be thankful for:

Based on preliminary data, the overall crime rate in America will continue to decrease this year, marking 25 years of steady declines

There is a serious chance that Congress tilts away from the alt-right in the midterm elections (thanks Roy Moore)

School lunch programs are growing, and "lunch shaming" is decreasing

There's more to list, but we have a newsletter to read. Just make sure to reflect on what you're thankful for.

Germany's Political Crisis

Germany was plunged into chaos after political negotiations collapsed over the weekend. Chancellor Merkel is trying to cobble together a majority coalition to lead, but the free-market FDP pulled out of talks, leaving Merkel scrambling to limit the damage. Without a majority coalition, Merkel may call for another election, putting her political future in doubt. Doug Jones for Senate You've heard of Roy Moore, the alleged pedophile and angry Alabaman running for senate. But have you heard of Doug Jones? He's the democrat running against Moore--and he has gained serious ground in the past week, posing the question: can a democrat really win a senate seat in deep red Alabama? Jones is a solid prospect, and not because he's a democrat (or because he's not a pedophile): he's smart, and he's solid on the issues. He's logical when it comes to gun policy (yes I'm citing Breitbart), he's focused on correcting the issues with the Affordable Care Act, and most important, he's a sensible guy focused on actually "draining the swamp" in our capital. To learn more about Jones, visit his website. The election is December 12th, and he can use all the support he has during this last slog--toss him $20 if you have it and you won't be disappointed. Zimbabwe to Mugabe: You're Fired!

Zimbabwe has had a hell of a week. 93-year old President Mugabe was ousted by his military with the backing of parliament earlier this week. Bizarrely, things have stayed pretty calm--most citizens are pleased and riots are nonexistent. Mugabe has refused to step down, though. After setting a deadline for noon, Monday to resign and receive immunity, Mugabe instead called for a cabinet meeting Tuesday, leaving the country unsure of how to proceed or when there will be an end to the standoff in sight.

AT&T/Time Warner Merger in Jeopardy

The DOJ announced late Monday that they were filing a complaint effectively halting the $85 billion AT&T/Time Warner merger that has been pending for months. The upcoming court case will be one of the most important to antitrust law in decades, and the showdown will likely influence as precedent for decades to come. Shockingly, President Trump has been outspoken about blocking the merger and it is broadly rumored that Trump really just wants to force Time Warner to spin off CNN. In similar yet opposite news, the FCC cleared the way for Sinclair Broadcasting - the largest in the country - to acquire Tribune and create a mega-broadcasting pro-Trump network that reaches at least 2 in every 5 American TVs.

#MeToo Continues

Senator Al Franken was accused by a second woman of groping her, Jeffrey Tambor left Amazon's Transparent after allegations, NYT White House reporter Glenn Thrush was suspended after a report from Vox, and the list goes on and on... What to Watch:

More sexual allegations are sure to come--and news outlets are pouring resources into reporting them.

More tax debate (one thing to be thankful for: that I spared you from my diatribe on how awful this bill is).

Thanksgiving!

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This Week: TPP, Mean Girls, Tensions in Lebanon, and Putin

Happy Tuesday, Homies! President Trump is wrapping up his nearly two-week visit to Asia. There’s plenty to unpack in what was and wasn’t said during the trip and on the sidelines. For one, it’s important enough to discuss that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is alive and kicking, Trump goes full-on “Mean Girl” for Kim Jong Un, Saudi Arabia might be inflaming tensions in the Middle East, and Putin continues to reign as the smartest man in the room. Got a friend who could benefit from this info? Share and promote this newsletter with your friends!  As always, Vicky, Colin, and I welcome any feedback you might have.

TPP Zombies Back to Life

Sticking to campaign pledges, Donald Trump promptly withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership back in January. Since then, U.S. allies in Asia have been left reeling from a massive blow to free-trade and a rules-based order led by the United States. The trade bloc would have enforced 21st century rules of the road on developing countries and help cement human rights, labor rules, and encouragement from the United States throughout the region.

Since Donald Trump killed the notion of the United States leading this agreement, Asia has been looking for the collective next step. Many wondered if this was the chance for China to lead with its own initiatives and dominate the region. However, Sunday night offered a glimmer of hope as trade representatives from 11 Pacific Rim countries,  “...have reached an agreement on a number of fundamental parts” for resurrecting TPP without U.S. participation.

The new potential agreement has many details that have to be reworked and revised now that the U.S. is no longer participating. However, the ‘Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership’ as it is now being called, has received endorsement from all participating countries on key principles such as, “unfair trade practices” and “market distorting subsidies.” Count this as a potential win for traditional business ethics and values once championed by the U.S. Hopefully the day will come when the United States returns to defending admirable goals such as these throughout the world. Stop Trying to Make "Fetch" Happen

Seems to be another weird day where Regina George, also known as the President of the United States, can’t just let it go. Kim Jong Un described the President as someone who is “begging for nuclear war” and a “destroyer.” These comments would normally not be taken lightly, but of course, that was when we used to live in reality and facts mattered.

Instead, the President responded with a sarcastically worded tweet, citing he would never call the North Korean leader “fat and short.” It seems that the most basic principles of leadership cannot be expected from Donald Trump. Instead, he is a person whose impulsivity and vanity cloud any kind of objective he attempts to grasp - leaving the American people exhausted and befuddled.

Can I Get a Lebanese PM in Here or What?

It’s been a long known secret that Iran and Saudi Arabia hate each other. I mean, truly and genuinely, loathe the other in a simmering cold-war style conflict between the Shia and Sunni domains. Add to the mix little Lebanon. The country is viewed with suspicions in Riyadh as a pivotal piece in the Shia crescent (an area of the Middle East under perceived Shia influence from Iran, northern Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon).  

Well, the Lebanese Prime Minister went to visit the Kingdom on Friday, November 3rd and was immediately detained, denied access to his personal phone, and forced to resign his Ministership live on Saudi TV. Speculation points to Hariri not taking a more confrontational approach to Hezbollah, long a parasite to Lebanese politics.

Beyond the speculation that Saudi Arabia is holding Hariri against his will, Lebanese politics is at a crucial moment. The country finds itself dealing with a coalition government that is highly influenced by Hezbollah, and any chance at striking agreements in Beirut are threatened until the Prime Minister returns.

Saudi-skeptics see the Kingdom as trying to knock out Iran’s 'pawns' in the region. Whether by playing in the internal politics of a vulnerable country, or encouraging Iran or Hezbollah to make itself the aggressor as an excuse for action, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Salman is certainly upping the ante when it comes to Middle East politics this November. As we detailed last week, the arrest of several crown princes has been viewed as a powerful concentration of control with Salman’s meteoric rise. The rest of us are left to wonder where his brinkmanship will take the region next.

Putin on a Show

Donald Trump got to meet Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vietnam this past weekend. When asked about the interference in the 2016 American election, Putin denied any involvement. “He said he didn't meddle, he said he didn't meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times.” Trump believes Putin is genuine on this.

Let’s be smart here. All 17 of America’s spy agencies agree that hackers with the full backing and support of the Russian Government (at Vladimir Putin’s direction) interfered in the American election in favor of one candidate. The fact that a sitting President of the United States would not believe his own intelligence agencies and instead takes the word for a KGB-trained autocrat is absurd. Trump expects us to forget, because forgetting is the first step in apathy. Apathy leads to distrust and hatred for the other, which lets this man continue being President. Do not for a second forget what the Russians did in 2016, what they are continuing to do, and what they will do to our elections in the years to come. What to Watch:

On Thursday, Tesla will unveil it’s electric semi-truck. It’s a huge chance to change the way food, goods, and services move around the United States and the world, so this is BIG news.

Continuing allegations against the embattled Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore. More Republican Senators are un-endorsing him, and some polls show his Democratic challenger, Doug Jones, ahead. If the Democrats don’t put money on this horse, it’s their golden opportunity to lose.

Developing overnight was Jeff Session's placating Donald Trump to keep his job. Sessions, on thin ice since recusing himself from the Russia investigation, is apparently looking into appointing special counsel on the Clinton Foundation and the Obama-era Uranium One deal. Commence eye-roll since this is what happens when you get a conspiracy theorist-in-chief.

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This Week: Elections, Terrorism, Saudi Arabia

Happy Thursday, Homies! This special post-election edition of TWB is coming to you on the tail-end of an especially tragic, drama-filled week of news in the US and abroad. To help break it down, we’ve divided the stories into US elections, domestic politics, deadly attacks (sadly), and foreign policy news. There’s a lot to digest, and that’s why we’re here. We would love it if you share this newsletter with your networks, and let us know what we could be doing better to break down the news.

Dems win big in US Elections The big news is coming out of statewide and local elections across multiple states. The gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia in particular were real nail-biters for Democrats, who have struggled to find election wins since being swept out of federal offices in 2016. In Virginia, the race turned extremely nasty (and racist) in the final weeks, with Republican candidate Ed Gillespie airing ads implying that his opponent’s support of (non-existent in Virginia) sanctuary cities was directly aiding the violent gang MS-13. On the other side, Democrat Ralph Northam’s supporters aired ads depicting a Confederate flag-waving pickup truck with a Gillespie bumper sticker chasing down minority children. The Virginia race was seen by many as a litmus test of multiple political strategies, and at time of writing it looks like the Northam campaign’s tactics paid off - or President Trump and his party are just that unpopular with voters. In New Jersey, Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno was soundly beaten by Democrat Phil Murphy, largely due to the unpopularity of her current boss Governor Chris Christie. Tragedies in New York, Texas: Terrorism versus Gun Violence This week, dual attacks in opposite corners of the country laid America’s debates over terrorism versus gun violence in stark relief. On Tuesday in New York City, an attacker used a rented truck to murder 8 people on a bike path in lower Manhattan. It has since emerged that the attacker is originally from Uzbekistan, but has lived in the US on a so-called “diversity visa” since 2010. He was taken alive by police after being shot, and is now in the hospital recovering following surgery. He also allegedly left a handwritten note in the vehicle claiming allegiance to ISIS, but the terrorist group has yet to claim responsibility for the attack, a strange move from a group that is usually quick to claim seemingly unrelated attacks as their own. The eight victims who were killed included five Argentine nationals and a Belgian woman, as well as two others who have yet to be identified. The tactics of the attack mirror those used in Nice, London, Berlin, Stockholm, and Barcelona, among other cities, where vehicles have gained popularity among terrorists in recent years, particularly among ISIS sympathizers (possibly at the behest of ISIS’s online magazines and guides). Then on Sunday, another attacker opened fire on a church service in Sutherland Springs, Texas, killing 26 people and injuring dozens more, more than half of whom were children. As details emerged about the attacker’s life and motivations, it quickly became apparent that his background was “riddled with warning signs”: an escape from a mental health facility in 2012, domestic abuse, a rape investigation, discharge and court martial (as well as detention) by the military, among other disturbing details. The Air Force had failed to report his domestic violence conviction to the FBI, meaning that he was able to legally purchase the firearms he used to commit the attack despite the fact that he should have been barred from doing so. The two attacks in just one week - and politicians’ reactions to them - have highlighted the stark differences between the ways Americans talk about what they perceive as terrorism, versus the ways we talk about “lone wolf” shooters. President Trump unwittingly provided perfect examples of these differences in his “public statements” (yeah, Tweets) about the attacks: while he immediately labeled the New York attack terrorism, called for the attacker to be taken to Guantanamo and given the death penalty, and demanded the end to the Diversity Visa program as a result, his response to the Texas massacre was to offer the traditional “thoughts and prayers” to the victim, blame mental health, and go on to declare that without access to guns, “hundreds more” would be dead. Politics, Politics, Politics

Republican Tax Plan Unveiled: Meanwhile, in Swamplandia, the House and Senate GOP revealed their tax plans this week, and the result is great news for corporations and wealthy Americans, and pretty terrible for everyone else. The House plan reduces the number of tax brackets and raises the minimum threshold for the top rate, and cuts or eliminates altogether key deductions and tax credits, including (but not limited to) the state and local tax deduction, the mortgage and student loan interest deductions, and adoption and elderly/disabled tax credits. Oh, and it leaves $1.5 trillion in tax cuts unpaid for, and is projected to balloon the deficit. The Senate’s plan, on the other hand, delays many of the key provisions of the House plan until 2019, likely to avoid backlash in the 2018 mid-term elections. The Senate plan also fully eliminates the state and local tax deductions. Many of the policies are seen as widely unpopular, but lawmakers are under serious pressure from wealthy donors to push through the plans regardless.

Saudi Prince goes Frey

In the Middle East this week, major waves emanating from Saudi Arabia threw many other countries into chaos. First, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who took power in 2016, made an unexpected trip to Riyadh where he even more surprisingly announced his resignation, causing his shaky coalition government to dissolve. Now, he’s disappeared from public view, and since his move shocked even his closest advisors, many in Lebanon have no idea what to think. On the tails of the surprise announcement, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman went full Walder Frey on some of his relatives, imprisoning at least 11 other princes and rounding up more than 500 others in an apparent move to consolidate power. Then, another prince was killed in an alleged helicopter crash near the Yemeni border, and a missile allegedly fired from Yemen was intercepted before it reached Riyadh. The Saudi government accused Iran of both meddling in Lebanon and supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen who allegedly fired the missile, and said the acts “may be and act of war,” leaving the door open for Riyadh to start an all-out conflict with its long-time rival.

What to Watch:

Mueller Investigation: Last week, Carter Page testified to the House Judiciary Committee about his contacts with Russia during the Trump campaign, on which he served as a foreign policy advisor. He stated that he spoke to several key figures, including current US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, explicitly about the contacts. This could put Sessions in hot water when he testifies before the Committee next week, since he has denied all knowledge of any campaign contacts with the Russians.

Trump goes to Asia: While all this mishegas goes down at home and abroad, the Trump team is currently on a ten-day trip to Asia, meeting with some of the US’s crucial allies like Japan and South Korea and in particular focusing on North Korea, as well as some not-so-friendly foreign powers...

Trump-Putin Meeting: Against the advice of some of his advisors, Trump is due to meet with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of an economic summit in Vietnam this week. Probably not the best optics given the ongoing, possibly impeachment-causing investigation into his campaigns alleged collusion with the Russian government.

Immigration Crackdown: Finally, would it even be a week in the Trump presidency if he wasn’t doing something awful on immigration? This week, the administration “strongly hinted” that it will end Temporary Protected Status for more than 57,000 Hondurans who have been living in the US since a hurricane devastated their country in 1988. The administration also ended the program for El Salvador starting in 2019.

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This Week: #MuellerMonday, Spain Fractured, More North Korea

Happy Tuesday, Homies!

Stranger Things, am I right?! I'm not just talking about the Netflix show (which I'm already almost finished with, by the way)--the current state of our political and geopolitical climate seems to grow increasingly stranger by the week. We may not be dealing with demogorgons (yet), but the lingering sense of dread that hovers over the series' second season is arguably outmatched by that of the White House. Abroad, things don't seem much better. Enjoy this breakdown of what's going on in the world these days. And if you want to talk Stranger Things 2--I'm at cwolfgang89@gmail.com.

Chaos in Catalonia Boy have things escalated in the Catalan region of northeast Spain, home to Barcelona and long a yearner of independence. The region's parliament voted in favor of independence on Friday after holding a referendum that showed overwhelming popularity for the move. Spain's central government in Madrid countered Saturday and voted in favor of evoking Article 155 of the constitution--which grants overwhelming authority to dissolve Catalonia's government and use force to take over the region. Catalan President Puigdemont has vowed to peacefully protest. Not everyone in Catalonia is happy, though--more than 300,000 held anti-independence rallies in the region on Sunday. Escalation on the Korean Peninsula: Part 18,769 Okay--that number is an exaggeration. But what would the Weekly Breakdown be without some news on North Korea? Defense Secretary Mattis visited the de-militarized zone Saturday and warned of the increasing threat North Korea poses to the region and the world, while promising swift and "overwhelming" retaliation should the Hermit Kingdom provoke the U.S. or its allies. This most recent dose of escalation has rattled the region: both South Koreans and Japanese are becoming more comfortable with - and even supportive of - their governments increasing their military capabilities. First Round of Mueller Indictments In news closer to home, Paul Manafort and his former business associate Rick Gates surrendered to the FBI Monday morning after receiving indictments stemming from Special Investigator Robert Mueller's investigation into the 2016 election and Trump-Russia ties. Manafort, who at one point ran Trump's campaign, has been charged with laundering $18 million in order to evade taxes. The two have 12 counts pending against them--most importantly, Conspiracy Against the United States, which carries a 5 year prison sentence. More importantly, however, was the unsealed bombshell that George Papadopoulos, a foreign advisor to the Trump campaign, pled guilty on October 5th to lying to the FBI about his ties to Russians. Papadopoulos admitted to meeting with Russians linked to the Russian government who promised "dirt" on Hillary Clinton, and relayed that information to the Trump campaign. Most importantly, he has been cooperating with the FBI since his arrest on July 27th--something that could be potentially very worrisome for Trump and other campaign officials. This Week

Spain developments: does Madrid begin jailing Catalan leaders and seizing the region through force?

Trump leaves for Asia on Friday, for what will be the most important foreign trip of his presidency. Expect China and North Korea to dominate discussions throughout the 5 country, 12 day tour.

According to the White House, a Fed Chair is likely to be nominated sometime this week.

House Republicans release their tax bill Wednesday. Should be a real gem.