#2013 beta vox

[staticradioismyfavhateship]

Silly suggestion: 2013 beta!vox still has Christian Borle's voice, but sounds like this:

[greedkinggreaser]

I wanted to draw Cockroach Vox again... he's so cute! Anyway, this is him meeting Canon Valentino.

[1962dude420-blog]

Today we remember the passing of Ray Manzarek who Died: May 20, 2013 in Rosenheim, Germany

Raymond Daniel Manzarek Jr. was an American musician, singer, producer, film director, and author, best known as a member of The Doors from 1965 to 1973, which he co-founded with singer and lyricist Jim Morrison.

Manzarek was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1993 as a member of the Doors. He was a co-founding member of Nite City from 1977 to 1978, and of Manzarek–Krieger from 2001 until his death in 2013. USA Today defined him as "one of the best keyboardists ever".

Raymond Daniel Manczarek Jr. was born and raised on the South Side of Chicago, Illinois. He was born to Helena (1918–2012) and Raymond Manczarek Sr. (1914–1987), and was of Polish descent.

In 1956, he matriculated at DePaul University, where he played piano in his fraternity's jazz band (the Beta Pi Mu Combo), participated in intramural football, served as treasurer of the Speech Club, and organized a charity concert with Sonny Rollins and Dave Brubeck. He graduated from the University's College of Commerce with a degree in economics in 1960.

In the fall of 1961, Manzarek briefly enrolled at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law. Unable to acclimatize to the curriculum, he transferred to the Department of Motion Pictures, Television and Radio as a graduate student before dropping out altogether after breaking up with a girlfriend. Although he attempted to enlist in the Army Signal Corps as a camera operator, he was instead assigned to the highly selective Army Security Agency as a prospective intelligence analyst.

Following his return to the U.S., he re-enrolled in UCLA's graduate film program in 1962, where he received a M.F.A. in cinematography in 1965. During this period, he met future wife Dorothy Fujikawa and undergraduate film student Jim Morrison. At the time, Manzarek was in a band called Rick & the Ravens with his brothers Rick and Jim. Forty days after finishing film school, thinking they had gone their separate ways, Manzarek and Morrison met by chance on Venice Beach in California. Morrison said he had written some songs, and Manzarek expressed an interest in hearing them, whereupon Morrison sang rough versions of "Moonlight Drive", "My Eyes Have Seen You" and "Summer's Almost Gone". During this period, Manzarek met teenage guitarist Robby Krieger and drummer John Densmore at a Transcendental Meditation lecture and recruited them for the incipient band. Densmore said, "There wouldn't be any Doors without Maharishi."

In January 1966, the Doors became the house band at the London Fog on the Sunset Strip. According to Manzarek, "Nobody ever came in the place ... an occasional sailor or two on leave, a few drunks. All in all it was a very depressing experience, but it gave us time to really get the music together." When the Doors were fired from the London Fog, they were hired to be the house band at the Whisky a Go Go. The Doors' first recording contract was with Columbia Records. After a few months of inactivity, they learned they were on Columbia's drop list. At that point, they asked to be released from their contract. Following a few months of live gigs, Jac Holzman "rediscovered" the Doors and signed them to Elektra Records.

The Doors lacked a bass guitarist (except during recording sessions), so for live performances Manzarek played the bass parts on a Fender Rhodes piano keyboard bass. His signature sound was that of the Vox Continental combo organ, an instrument used by many other psychedelic rock bands of the era. He also used a Gibson G-101 Kalamazoo combo organ (which looks like a Farfisa) for the band's later albums.

During the Morrison era, Manzarek was the group's regular backing vocalist. He occasionally sang lead, as exemplified by covers of Muddy Waters's "Close to You" (released on 1970s Absolutely Live) and "You Need Meat (Don't Go No Further)" (recorded during the L.A. Woman sessions and initially released as the B-side of "Love Her Madly"). He went on to share lead vocals with Krieger on the albums (Other Voices and Full Circle) released after Morrison's death.

Manzarek married fellow UCLA alumna Dorothy Aiko Fujikawa in Los Angeles on December 21, 1967, with Jim Morrison and his longtime companion, Pamela Courson, as witnesses. Manzarek and Fujikawa remained married until his death. They had a son, Pablo born on August 31, 1973, and three grandchildren. In the early 1970s, the Manzareks divided their time between an apartment in West Hollywood, California, and a small penthouse on New York City's Upper West Side. They subsequently resided in Beverly Hills, California (including ten years in a house on Rodeo Drive) for several decades. For the last decade of his life, Manzarek and his wife lived in a refurbished farmhouse near Vichy Springs, California in the Napa Valley.

In March 2013, Manzarek was diagnosed with a rare cancer called cholangiocarcinoma (bile duct cancer) and traveled to Germany for special treatment. During that time he reconciled with Densmore, and he spoke to Krieger before his death. He also performed a private concert for his doctors and nurses. Manzarek was "feeling better" until it took a turn for the worse according to his manager. On May 20, 2013, Manzarek died at a hospital in Rosenheim, Germany, at the age of 74. His body was cremated. Krieger said upon hearing the news of his death, "I was deeply saddened to hear about the passing of my friend and bandmate Ray Manzarek today. I'm just glad to have been able to have played Doors songs with him for the last decade. Ray was a huge part of my life and I will always miss him." Densmore said, "There was no keyboard player on the planet more appropriate to support Jim Morrison's words. Ray, I felt totally in sync with you musically. It was like we were of one mind, holding down the foundation for Robby and Jim to float on top of. I will miss my musical brother."

Greg Harris, president and CEO of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, said in reaction to Manzarek's death that "The world of rock 'n' roll lost one of its greats with the passing of Ray Manzarek." Harris also said that "he was instrumental in shaping one of the most influential, controversial and revolutionary groups of the '60s. Such memorable tracks as 'Light My Fire', 'People Are Strange' and 'Hello, I Love You' – to name but a few – owe much to Manzarek's innovative playing."

On February 12, 2016, at the Fonda Theatre in Hollywood, Densmore and Krieger reunited for the first time in 15 years to perform in tribute to Manzarek and benefit Stand Up to Cancer. That day would have been Manzarek's 77th birthday. The night featured Exene Cervenka and John Doe of the band X, Rami Jaffee of the Foo Fighters, Stone Temple Pilots' Robert DeLeo, Jane's Addiction's Stephen Perkins, Emily Armstrong of Dead Sara and Andrew Watt, among others.

In April 2018, the film Break On Thru: A Celebration of Ray Manzarek and the Doors premiered at the 2018 Asbury Park Music & Film Festival. The film highlights the 2016 concert in honor of what would have been Manzarek's 77th birthday, and new footage and interviews. The film won the APMFF Best Film Feature Award at the festival.

[theconservativebrief]

The recent suicides of celebrities Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade have prompted many of us to look more closely at what may drive people to depression or to end their own lives.

One risk factor has gotten little attention in this discussion: the medications people take.

More than a third of American adults are using medications that have the potential to increase their risk of depression, a study published this week in JAMA finds, and nearly a quarter use medications that have suicidal symptoms as side effects.

The 203 drugs the researchers identified aren’t obscure; they include some of the most commonly prescribed medications around — like birth control, beta-blockers for high blood pressure, and proton pump inhibitors for acid reflux. (You can see the full list at the end of this article.)

Strikingly, the researchers from the University of Illinois and Columbia University discovered, people using these drugs had an elevated risk of depression compared to the general population. And the more medications with depression as a side effect people took, the more their risk of the disease increased.

Javier Zarracina/Vox

“It’s remarkable to know just how common it is that people might be at higher risk because of medicines they take,” said University of Pennsylvania psychiatry professor Michael Thase, who was not involved in the study. “Thinking about these [potential side effects] should be [doctors‘] second or third step before they prescribe antidepressants. Sometimes de-prescribing [other drugs] is what’s needed.”

Since depression affects more than one in 20 adults in the US every year, and suicide rates have been steadily climbing here for years, these new findings are an important reminder that the drugs a person takes for one health condition may be making them sick in other ways.

Every medication comes with many possible side effects, and most of those side effects are rare. (Just think about the warnings highlighted on the drug commercials on TV.) If a side effect is listed on a package insert, it generally means at least 1 to 2 percent of people will experience it, said lead study author Dima Mazen Qato, a pharmacist and assistant professor of pharmacy at the University of Illinois Chicago.

To figure out how common depression and suicide-related symptoms (including suicide, or suicidal thoughts and behaviors) side effects were among the drugs Americans take, the researchers turned to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a government-run study that’s been tracking health trends in a representative sample of Americans since the 1970s.

They combed through the drug-use data on more than 26,000 people who participated in the study between 2005 and 2014 and found that Americans reported using 203 medications with depression and suicidal symptoms listed among their side effects. As of 2013 to 2014, 38 percent of adults reported taking drugs with depression as a potential side effect within the past 30 days, while 23 percent were using drugs that carried the risk of suicidal symptoms.

After the researchers figured out that these drugs were common, they wanted to see if there was any relationship between the people taking the drugs and an elevated risk of depression. To find this out, they turned to the NHANES survey again, which also tracks mental health. They discovered that the more drugs people reported taking, the higher their risk of depression and suicide.

To get a sense for how much of a risk of depression and suicide taking these drugs were associated with, let’s walk through the numbers.

In the total study population of more than 23,000 people (excluding the people on antidepressants) 6 percent reported depression. Among the users of just one of the drugs that have depression as an adverse effect, the prevalence increased to 7 percent. Among people taking two or more of the potentially depression-inducing drugs, the prevalence shot up to 10 percent. And among people taking three or more of the drugs, the prevalence was 15 percent. (Again, for all these figures, the researchers excluded antidepressant users since they’d inflate the results.)

They found similar associations in non-antidepressant users who were taking medications with suicide symptoms. In the total study population, who weren‘t using medications with suicidal symptoms, five percent of participants reported suicidal symptoms. Among adults on one of these medications, the prevalence rose to 8 percent and among adults using three or more, the prevalence jumped to 18 percent.

“One can say you’d expect that finding because people who have more medical problems are more likely to take more medications and are more likely to be depressed,” said study co-author Mark Olfson, a professor of epidemiology and psychiatry at the Columbia University Medical Center.

But when the researchers looked at drugs that weren’t associated with depressive side effects, they found no dose-response like the one they discovered in people taking one or more drugs with depressive or suicidal side effects. In other words, simply taking more medications, when the medications don‘t have depression or suicide listed as a side effect, was not associated with an increased risk.

“It didn’t surprise me that there are a large numbers of drugs [with these side effects] and that these drugs are commonly prescribed,” said Olfson. “But what surprised me is that you can see this connection [to depression] in the general population, how strong it was, and that it builds up with each additional medication a person uses.”

Penn’s Thase called the findings “very suggestive” and ”strong circumstantial evidence” that taking one or more medications with depression as a potential side effect may increase a person’s risk of depression. While these medications work through different mechanisms, he said, it’s possible that when they‘re combined, those risks increase.

While the researchers did their best to statistically control for factors that may confound their results, like sex, age, race, and employment status, there were some things the paper can’t tell us.

Because this is an observational study and not an experimental study, the researchers stopped short of saying the medications caused the depression. To find that out, they’d need to do a follow-up study where they track people who start taking these medications over time and see if their risk of depression increases.

What’s more, there are many factors that can increase a person’s risk of depression and suicide, including one’s personal and family medical history and major life upheavals, and the researchers couldn‘t account for those. The sample in the study was also too small to drill down into the individual medications and their depression patterns.

But for now, the study is a powerful reminder that people know that certain medications carry the risk of depression and suicidal thinking, and that they should talk to their doctors about that when starting on a new drug.

“When you have a patient,“ said Penn‘s Thase, “and their story doesn’t fit the usual pattern — there are no setbacks in the person‘s life, no broken heart, no job difficulty, [doctors] should think of other possible masquerading causes — and the chance that medication could be the cause.”

For patients concerned about the side effects of their medications, this database from the National Institutes of Health lets you search for the side effects for most drugs and drug classes. We’ve also created a table of the 203 drugs the researchers found that had depression or suicidal symptoms as side effects:

Name Type Risk

Name Type Risk

Abacavir/Lamivudine Other Depressive Symptoms Acebutolol Other Depressive Symptoms Acetaminophen/Hydrocodone Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Acetaminophen/Tramadol Analgesic Suicidal Symptoms Acitretin Other Depressive Symptoms Amantadine Other Suicidal Symptoms Amitriptyline Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Amitriptyline/Chlordiazepoxide Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Amitriptyline/Perphenazine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Amphetamine/Detroamphetamine Other Depressive Symptoms Anastrozole Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Aripiprazole Other Suicidal Symptoms Armodafinil Other Suicidal Symptoms Asenapine Other Suicidal Symptoms Atenolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Atenolol/Chlorthalidone Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Atomoxetine Other Suicidal Symptoms Atropine/Diphenoxylate Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Baclofen Other Depressive Symptoms Bendroflumethiazide/Nadolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Benzphetamine Other Depressive Symptoms Betamethasone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Betaxolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Bicalutamide Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Brimonidine Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Brimonidine/Timolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Bupropion Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Butabarbital Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Cabergoline Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Carbamazepine Clonazepam Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Carbidopa/Entacapone/Levodopa Other Suicidal Symptoms Carbidopa/Levodopa Other Suicidal Symptoms Cetirizine6 Respiratory Agent Depressive Symptoms Chlordiazepoxide Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Cimetidine Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Cinacalcet Other Depressive Symptoms Ciprofloxacin Other Suicidal Symptoms Citalopram Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Clomipramine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Clonazepam Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Clonidine Other Depressive Symptoms Clorazepate Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Conjugated Estrogens Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Conjugated Estrogens/Medroxyprogesterone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Cortisone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Cyclobenzaprine Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Cyclosporine Other Depressive Symptoms Dantrolene Other Depressive Symptoms Dapsone Other Suicidal Symptoms Desipramine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Desogestrel/Ethinyl Estradiol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Desvenlafaxine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Dexamethasone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Dexlansoprazole Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Dexmethylphenidate Other Depressive Symptoms Diazepam Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Diazepam Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Dienogest/Estradiol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Donepezil Other Depressive Symptoms Dorzolamide/Timolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Doxepin Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Doxepin Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Dronabinol Other Depressive Symptoms Drospirenone/Ethinyl Estradiol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Drospirenone/Ethinyl Estradiol/Levomefolate Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Duloxetine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Efavirenz Other Suicidal Symptoms Efavirenz/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Other Suicidal Symptoms Emtricitabine Other Depressive Symptoms Enalapril Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Erlotinib Other Depressive Symptoms Escitalopram Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Esomeprazole Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Esterified Estrogens Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Esterified Estrogens/Methyltestosterone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Estradiol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Estradiol/Norethindrone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Estropipate Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Eszopiclone Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Ethynodiol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Etonogestrel Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Levonorgestrel Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Norethindrone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Norgestimate Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethinyl Estradiol/Norgestrel Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ethosuximide Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Etonogestrel Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Exemestane Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Famotidine Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Fentanyl Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Flecainide Other Depressive Symptoms Fluoxetine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Fluoxetine/Olanzapine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Fluphenazine7 Other Depressive Symptoms Flurazepam Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Fluvoxamine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Gabapentin Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Galantamine Other Depressive Symptoms Goserelin Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Haloperidol Other Depressive Symptoms Hydrochlorothiazide/Metoprolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Hydrocodone Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Hydropmorphone Analgesic Suicidal Symptoms Hydroxyprogesterone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Ibuprofen Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Iloperidone Other Suicidal Symptoms Imipramine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Indomethacin Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Interferon Beta-1a Other Suicidal Symptoms Interferon Beta-1b Other Suicidal Symptoms Isotretinoin Other Suicidal Symptoms Lamotrigine Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Levetiracetam Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Lorazepam Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Lurasidone Other Suicidal Symptoms Maraviroc Other Depressive Symptoms Medroxyprogesterone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Mefloquine Other Suicidal Symptoms Megestrol Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Memantine Other Suicidal Symptoms Methsuximide Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Methyldopa Other Depressive Symptoms Methylphenidate Other Suicidal Symptoms Methylprednisolone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Metoclopramide Gastrointestinal Agent Suicidal Symptoms Metolazone Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Metolazone Other Depressive Symptoms Metoprolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Metronidazole Other Depressive Symptoms Milnacipran Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Mirtazapine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Modafinil Other Suicidal Symptoms Morphine Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Moxifloxacin Other Suicidal Symptoms Nabumetone Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Naltrexone Other Suicidal Symptoms Natalizumab Other Suicidal Symptoms Nefazodone Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Nisoldipine Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Norethindrone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Nortriptyline Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Ofloxacin Other Suicidal Symptoms Olanzapine Other Suicidal Symptoms Omeprazole Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Oxcarbazepine Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Oxybutynin8 Other Depressive Symptoms Oxycodone Analgesics Depressive Symptoms Paroxetine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Peginterferon Alfa-2a Other Suicidal Symptoms Pentobarbital Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Phenelzine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Phentermine9 Other Depressive Symptoms Phenytoin Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Pimozide Other Depressive Symptoms Prazosin Other Depressive Symptoms Prednisolone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Prednisone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Pregabalin Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Propafenone Other Depressive Symptoms Propranolol Other Depressive Symptoms Protriptyline Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Quetiapine Other Suicidal Symptoms Quinapril Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Raltegravir Other Suicidal Symptoms Ramelteon Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Ranitidine Gastrointestinal Agents Depressive Symptoms Rasagiline Other Depressive Symptoms Ribavirin Respiratory Agent Suicidal Symptoms Risperidone4 Other Suicidal Symptoms Rivastigmine5 Other Suicidal Symptoms Roflumilast Respiratory Agent Suicidal Symptoms Rotigotine Other Depressive Symptoms Selegiline Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Sertraline Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Sibutramine Other Suicidal Symptoms Sorafenib Other Depressive Symptoms Tamoxifen Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Tapentadol Analgesic Suicidal Symptoms Telmisartan Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Testosterone Hormone Modifiers Depressive Symptoms Tetrabenazine Other Suicidal Symptoms Timolol Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Tizanidine Other Depressive Symptoms Topiramate Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Tramadol Analgesic Suicidal Symptoms Trandolapril Antihypertensives Depressive Symptoms Trazodone Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Triamcinolone Corticosteroids Depressive Symptoms Triazolam Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Valproic Acid Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms Varenicline Other Suicidal Symptoms Venlafaxine Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Vilazodone Antidepressant Suicidal Symptoms Zafirlukast3 Respiratory Agent Suicidal Symptoms Zaleplon Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Zolpidem Anxiolytic Suicidal Symptoms Zonisamide Anticonvulsant Suicidal Symptoms

Original Source -> Depression and suicide risk are side effects of more than 200 common drugs

via The Conservative Brief

[bigdatanewsmagazine]

Doppelganger Discovery: How Baseball Sabermetrics Inspires Predictive Analytics – The Predictive Analytics Times

By Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

This author will present at Predictive Analytics World, Oct 29 – Nov 2 in New York. This article is excerpted from his book, Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are. The book delivers a fresh overview of big data with an emphasis on the intriguing insights revealed by Google search trends. The book also draws a new perspective on the power and peril of deployed machine learning (calling it “doppelganger discovery”). Click here for information about Seth’s upcoming PAW New York presentation.

Here’s how Bill Simmons, a sportswriter and passionate Boston Red Sox fan, described what was happening in the early months of the 2009 season: “It’s clear that David Ortiz no longer excels at baseball. . . . Beefy sluggers are like porn stars, wrestlers, NBA centers and trophy wives: When it goes, it goes.” Great sports fans trust their eyes, and Simmons’s eyes told him Ortiz was finished. In fact, Simmons predicted he would be benched or released shortly.

Was Ortiz really finished? If you’re the Boston general manager, in 2009, do you cut him? More generally, how can we predict how a baseball player will perform in the future? Even more generally, how can we use Big Data to predict what people will do in the future?

A theory that will get you far in data science is this: Look at what sabermetricians (those who have used data to study baseball) have done and expect it to spread out to other areas of data science. Baseball was among the first fields with comprehensive datasets on just about everything, and an army of smart people willing to devote their lives to making sense of that data. Now, just about every field is there or getting there. Baseball comes first; every other field follows. Sabermetrics eats the world.

The simplest way to predict a baseball player’s future is to assume he will continue performing as he currently is. If a player has struggled for the past 1.5 years, you might guess that he will struggle for the next 1.5 years.

By this methodology, Boston should have cut David Ortiz.

However, there might be more relevant information. In the 1980s, Bill James, who most consider the founder of sabermetrics, emphasized the importance of age. Baseball players, James found, peaked early—at around the age of twenty-seven. Teams tended to ignore just how much players decline as they age. They overpaid for aging players.

By this more advanced methodology, Boston should definitely have cut David Ortiz.

But this age adjustment might miss something. Not all players follow the same path through life. Some players might peak at twenty-three, others at thirty-two. Short players may age differently from tall players, fat players from skinny players. Baseball statisticians found that there were types of players, each following a different aging path. This story was even worse for Ortiz; “beefy sluggers” indeed do, on average, peak early and collapse shortly past thirty.

If Boston considered his recent past, his age, and his size, they should, without a doubt, have cut David Ortiz.

Then, in 2003, statistician Nate Silver introduced a new model, which he called PECOTA, to predict player performance. It proved to be the best—and, also, the coolest. Silver searched for players’ doppelgangers. Here’s how it works. Build a database of every Major League Baseball player ever, more than 18,000 men. And include everything you know about those players: Their height, age, and position; their home runs, batting average, walks, and strikeouts for each year of their careers. Now, find the twenty ballplayers who look most similar to Ortiz right up until that point in his career—those who played like he did when he was 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, and 33. In other words, find his doppelgangers. Then see how Ortiz’s doppelgangers’ careers progressed.

A doppelganger search is another example of zooming in. It zooms in on the small subset of people most similar to a given person. And, as with all zooming in, it gets better the more data you have. It turns out, Ortiz’s doppelgangers gave a very different prediction for Ortiz’s future. Ortiz’s doppelgangers included Jorge Posada and Jim Thome. These players started their careers a bit slow; had amazing bursts in their late twenties, with world-class power; and then struggled in their early thirties.

Silver then predicted how Ortiz would do based on how these doppelgangers ended up doing. And here’s what he found: They regained their power. For trophy wives, Simmons may be right; when it goes, it goes. But for Ortiz’s doppelgangers, when it went, it came back.

The doppelganger search, the best methodology ever used to predict baseball player performance, said Boston should be patient with Ortiz. And Boston indeed was patient with their aging slugger. In 2010, Ortiz’s average rose to .270. He hit 32 home runs and made the All-Star team. This began a string of four consecutive All-Star games for Ortiz. In 2013, batting in his traditional third spot in the lineup, at the age of thirty-seven, Ortiz batted .688 as Boston defeated St. Louis, 4 games to 2, in the World Series. Ortiz was voted World Series MVP.

As soon as I finished reading Nate Silver’s approach to predicting the trajectory of ballplayers, I immediately began thinking about whether I might have a doppelganger, too.

Doppelganger searches are promising in many fields, not just athletics. Could I find the person who shares the most interests with me? Maybe if I found the person most similar to me, we could hang out. Maybe he would know some restaurants we would like. Maybe he could introduce me to things I had no idea I might have an affinity for.

A doppelganger search zooms in on individuals and even on the traits of individuals. And, as with all zooming in, it gets sharper the more data you have. Suppose I searched for my doppelganger in a dataset of ten or so people. I might find someone who shared my interest in books. Suppose I searched for my doppelganger in a dataset of a thousand or so people. I might find someone who had a thing for popular physics books. But suppose I searched for my doppelganger in a dataset of hundreds of millions of people. Then I might be able to find someone who was really, truly similar to me. One day, I went doppelganger hunting on social media. Using the entire corpus of Twitter profiles, I looked for the people on the planet who have the most common interests with me.

You can certainly tell a lot about my interests from whom I follow on my Twitter account. Overall, I follow some 250 people, showing my passions for sports, politics, comedy, science, and morose Jewish folksingers.

So is there anybody out there in the universe who follows all 250 of these accounts, my Twitter twin? Of course not. Doppelgangers aren’t identical to us, only similar. Nor is there anybody who follows 200 of the accounts I follow. Or even 150.

However, I did eventually find an account that followed an amazing 100 of the accounts I follow: Country Music Radio Today. Huh? It turns out, Country Music Radio Today was a bot (it no longer exists) that followed 750,000 Twitter profiles in the hope that they would follow back.

I have an ex-girlfriend who I suspect would get a kick out of this result. She once told me I was more like a robot than a human being.

All joking aside, my initial finding that my doppelganger was a bot that followed 750,000 random accounts does make an important point about doppelganger searches. For a doppelganger search to be truly accurate, you don’t want to find someone who merely likes the same things you like. You also want to find someone who dislikes the things you dislike.

My interests are apparent not just from the accounts I follow but from those I choose not to follow. I am interested in sports, politics, comedy, and science but not food, fashion, or theater. I follow shows that I like. Bernie Sanders but not Elizabeth Warren, Sarah Silverman but not Amy Schumer, the New Yorker but not the Atlantic, my friends Noah Popp, Emily Sands, and Josh Gottlieb but not my friend Sam Asher. (Sorry, Sam. But your Twitter feed is a snooze.)

Of all 200 million people on Twitter, who has the most similar profile to me? It turns out my doppelganger is Vox writer Dylan Matthews. This was kind of a letdown, for the purposes of improving my media consumption, as I already follow Matthews on Twitter and Facebook and compulsively read his Vox posts. So learning he was my doppelganger hasn’t really changed my life. But it’s still pretty cool to know the person most similar to you in the world, especially if it’s someone you admire. And when I finish this book and stop being a hermit, maybe Matthews and I can hang out and discuss the writings of James Surowiecki.

About the Author:

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a New York Times op-ed contributor, a visiting lecturer at The Wharton School, and a former Google data scientist. He received a BA in philosophy from Stanford, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa, and a PhD in economics from Harvard. His research—which uses new, big data sources to uncover hidden behaviors and attitudes—has appeared in the Journal of Public Economics and other prestigious publications. He lives in New York City.

This article is excerpted from the book “Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are.” Copyright ©2017 by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. Reprinted by permission of Dey Street Books, an imprint of HarperCollins Publishers.

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The post Doppelganger Discovery: How Baseball Sabermetrics Inspires Predictive Analytics – The Predictive Analytics Times appeared first on Big Data News Magazine.

from Doppelganger Discovery: How Baseball Sabermetrics Inspires Predictive Analytics – The Predictive Analytics Times

[staticradioismyfavhateship]

Vox Evolution

Beta design (2013 on left; 2017 on right)

Concept design

Pilot design

Final design