#Box and Cox

[knockout1207]

【UTR≡CHT】BOX&COX(Cox比例ハザード)

Box and Coxの話。

過去の記事はこちら⬇️

もし、『Box and Cox』のCOXが同じ場所に同時に居合わせることのない二人ではなく、ハザード比(死亡確率の比)だったら。

比例ハザードモデル

⬇️こちらにCox比例ハザードモデルが記載されています。

“生存時間分析のためのノンパラメトリックな手法の1つで、比例ハザードモデルとも言う。

生存時間データのほかに年齢や性別などの共変量を用いることで、共変量が生存時間に与える影響を調べることができる。はベースラインハザード関数を、は各説明変数を、は各パラメーターの推定値を表す。

カテゴリー間におけるハザード比は共変量にのみ依存しており、時間には依存しない。これを比例ハザード性といい、Cox比例ハザードモデルではこの比例ハザード性が成立することを仮定している。”

名前の由来となったCoxさんはこの方⬇️

2022年1月18日(享年97歳)までご存命だったようです。

長生きですね。

“サー・デビッド・ロックスビー・コックスFRS FBA FRSE FRSC(1924年7月15日-2022年1月18日)は、イギリスの統計学者、教育者でした。統計分野への彼の幅広い貢献には、ロジスティック回帰、比例ハザードモデル、および彼にちなんで名付けられたポイントプロセスであるコックスプロセスの導入が含まれていました。

コックスは、統計学で著名な多くの著名な研究者を監督し、協力し、奨励した。彼はジョージ・ボックスと協力して、ボックス・コックスの変換などの変換を研究し、彼らはボックスとコックスとしてクレジットされることを特に喜んでいました。”

茶番(コミック)の方のBox and Coxは1874年に発表されているので、ディビット・コックス卿の方が後に生まれてますね。

コミック、読んでいらしたのでしょうか？

で、このBox and CoxのBOXがシュレディンガーの箱を指していて、CoxがCox比例ハザード比による箱の中に入っている猫の生存時間を指し示しているのなら、

現在歌唱を担当されている俯瞰音子(猫)さんは、生存時間(契約)が尽きると

俯瞰音子(男)として別の方に変わってしまうのかもしれません。

声変わり的な？

だから『ぼくたちのおはなし』の最後に声が分裂したのかもしれませんね。

え？

まさか本当に現実のねこを使って『シュレディンガーの箱』の実験をして生存時間分析してるとか言わないですよね？

『言わないよねェッ』　カッ

そんなことしてたら私「でかつよ」のハチワレになってしまう。

[gummytea]

it was all you ♡( ◡‿◡ )

[fyeahjessecox]

[jt1674]

[gordonstanheight]

🚨BREAKING: Jake Paul has challenged Logan Roy (age 84) to a boxing match after beating Mike Tyson (age 58)

[farfromstrange]

I just watched Charlie’s Actors on Actors with Joe, and I can’t get over how fucking precious it was. I love this man so much. Somebody fucking sedate me oh my god.

[yarrystyleeza]

𝐘𝐮𝐧𝐚'𝐬 𝟐𝟐𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐢𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐒𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫!

Well, as the title suggests, I am turning 22 on January 30th (yes I can't believe it either), and it's a very very special number to me, I was obsessed with it since I was a kid—because of Taylor Swift's 22 of course (you have no idea how happy my inner child is now!).

However, I thought I should celebrate this very important event with you by hosting my second sleepover! (honestly I was planning to make this a double sleepover if I hit 300 followers before my birthday, but since I didn't, I really had to host a sleepover)

As usual, my sleepover will host games, questions, asks, and definitely, requests!!! <3

The sleepover will be a week long, from January 30th till February 6th, where you can submit asks and requests!

Note on prohibited things that I won't be doing or answering:

No nsfw/dirty asks, writing requests or questions, it's uncomfortable for me sometimes, and this is an all-ages-friendly celebration. No further elaboration, please respect this. <3

𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬:

Here's a list of the games we can play:

Kiss/Marry/Kill: you give me three characters and I will sort each one in one of these categories! (make it hard for me)

Would you rather: you give me two things/characters and I get to choose one that suits me better! (for example: night owl or early bird?)

Make an assumption: you literally make an assumption about me and I either prove it or deny it!

Never have I ever: you ask me about things I did or didn't do!

Exchanged Ships: basically, you give me a character that you find as my significant other, and I will give you a character in exchange and why I think it's the perfect character for you!

Random Q&A: you can ask me about anything, whether it's my favorite food or even what fabrics do I prefer to wear, ask whatever you want!

Girly Talks: just talk to me about any girly topic you want and we'll establish a good conversation! Let's talk about books or authors, favorite poetry pieces, maybe movies we loved in our childhood, or even your favorite outfits back when you were a 10 year old! Literally anything!

Rate My Music Taste: give me a song/artist and I will rate it from 1 (absolute flop) to 10 (total banger)! — (this is absolutely done just for fun).

I Wanna Write You A Song: start with a phrase and we will make a totally original song together in the reblogs!

Doodles: give me something simple to draw!

𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬:

As for writing requests, I will be taking fluff/angst/violence (blood and gore—due to the nature of the characters I write for) x female!reader requests only. But of course you can request the prompt you desire. <3

As for the characters, here's a list of the fictional men that I would be writing for:

Matt Murdock/Daredevil

Foggy Nelson

Tristan Thorn

Michael Kinsella

Henry (from Eat Locals)

Daryl Dixon

(might consider writing for other Charlie Cox/Norman Reedus characters. example: Ian Hamilton, Owen Sleater, Scud, Murphy MacManus, etc.)

You can ask for prompt included in this list or ones you come up with yourself:

intimate moments / gestures that make me feel love / romantic rainy day prompts / gentle things that make me fall harder in love / fluffy comforting/sick dialogue prompts / lighthearted first kiss prompts / sparring prompts / forced proximity prompts / date prompts masterpost /

Note that I will be tagging the fic requests with #yuna's 22 birthday sleepover so they're easy to find, but they will be sorted in my main masterlist as regular requests! <3

tagging my moots to spread the word sorry for being a little too annoying hehe (and I tried to tag as much as possible but my memory is messing around with me I'm sorry if I forgot anyone): @v4leoftears @remonemo @fizanotfeeza @bunmurdock @bellaxgiornata @kal-0n @1988-fiend @mattmurdocks6thscaleapartment @floral-charlie-cat @farfromstrange @babygirlmurdock @mattmurdocksscars @itwasthereaminuteago @c-mrdck @xxeycisxx @loveroftoomanyfandoms @mindidjarin @little-miss-dilf-lover @shiorimakibawrites @tongueofcat @marytheweefrenchie @chvoswxtch @devilsmurdock @galaxies-and-moons-and-cox @acharliecoxedfan @folkloreandfall @murdocklorian @munsonownsmyass @abbyhaslongshorts @murc0ck @lazyxsquirrel @theradioactivespidergwen @xxdrixx @saintmurd0ck @softasawhisper @she-likesorchids @peterman-spideyparker @mattmurdocksstarlight @amberlynnmurdock @courtforshort15 @saltedlays @importantnightwerewolf @lene-loki

That's basically everything I have for my birthday sleepover, feel free to submit requests and games! Thank you for coming to my sleepover tonight! <3

[1988-fiend]

OMG HE IS HERE!!

ACTION FIGURE SPOILERS!!!

HE IS SO GORGEOUS!!!

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Matt Davies :: @MatttDavies

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

September 11, 2024

Heather Cox Richardson

Sep 12, 2024

Today’s fallout from last night’s presidential debate between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee former president Donald Trump has shown Harris solidifying her dominant position. Trump increasingly looks as if the anger he has been displaying is a way to hide the fear that he is losing control. 

After debates, surrogates for a nominee talk to journalists in what’s known as a “spin room,” where they try to spin the event in favor of their candidate. John Bowden of The Independent described his time in last night’s spin room as “the strangest moments of my political career.” As usual, Republican surrogates immediately attacked the moderators for fact-checking the debate.

But it was clear, Bowden wrote, that the campaign officials were panicking. Even Fox News Channel reporters said that Trump had performed badly, and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called the debate a “disaster.” But MAGA Republicans, whom Trump has elevated far beyond any position they could achieve without him, were lashing out on his behalf. 

Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance attacked the moderators and doubled down on the lie that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating their neighbors’ pets, despite statements from Springfield police and the town manager that there is no evidence for such a statement. Anti-immigrant Trump advisor Stephen Miller melted down when Hispanic reporter José María Del Pino asked him where he got his figures saying that crime in Venezuela had dropped dramatically. 

The Trump campaign had told reporters that Vance would be the top surrogate for the evening, but after the debate, Trump himself appeared in the spin room to override his surrogates’ attempts to blame his performance on the moderators and instead assure reporters that he had won the debate. It is highly unusual for a candidate to go to the spin room in person, and his appearance demonstrated that Trump was aware that he was in trouble. Reporters seemed to agree: “If you won tonight, why are you here?” one can be heard saying to him. “Why not let the performance speak for itself?”

“Trump has come in the spin room and he is desperately trying to get the attention that I think he needs as oxygen at this point,” an MSNBC reporter told MSNBC host Rachel Maddow. “Is he literally standing there like he’s his own surrogate trying to get people to talk to him about his own performance?” Maddow asked. “Wow. That’s something. That is not a sign of strength or confidence in your own performance when you’re trying to extend past the final bell….” 

Answering questions did not appear to help him. When asked once again to answer whether he would veto a national abortion bill, he answered: “It was a perfect answer on abortion, and I’ve done a great job on that, and I’ve brought our country together.” And then he walked out.

All day today, he posted and reposted statements that he had won the debate—including a message of support from former Tenet Media commentator Benny Johnson, whose paycheck was paid by Russia—but it was hard to miss that Trump’s performance was historically bad. Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark, who studies focus groups, said that “[a]cross the board,’ a “focus group of swing voters from swing states” thought Harris won the debate. Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz went on record saying that Trump’s debate performance would cost him the presidential race. The Harris campaign’s ongoing trolling of Trump was perhaps even harsher: it posted the entire hour and forty minute debate as a campaign ad.

Meanwhile, by 2:00 this afternoon, Taylor Swift’s endorsement had prompted 337,826 people to start the process of registering to vote. 

All day today, reporters fact checked Trump’s statements, proving them lies. But lies have never damaged him; they reinforce his dominance by forcing subordinates to agree that the person in charge gets to determine what reality is. Victims must surrender either their integrity or their ownership of their own perceptions; in either case, once they have agreed to a deliberate lie, it becomes harder to challenge later ones since that means acknowledging the other times they caved.

That’s why the lie about the size of the crowd at Trump’s inauguration is so important: it is the foundational lie on which all the others stand. Harris, who spent her legal career dealing with criminals and abusers who depend on this technique, knew exactly how to undermine it. She made fun of it, making his “obsession with crowd sizes” a national joke. The jokes set him off not only because he cannot bear to be laughed at, but also because challenging that lie challenges all the others. 

Following Harris’s lead, posters on social media turned to memes today, setting Trump’s assertion that “they’re eating the cats,” to Vince Guaraldi’s theme “Linus and Lucy” from the Peanuts movies, for example, and designing the same statement as a Dr. Seuss book, as well as posting pictures of live pets wrapped in bread and rolls. 

Observers correctly noted that the racist trope of immigrants eating pets dehumanizes marginalized people who are already vulnerable, putting them in danger. While posters and media have repeatedly pointed out that the Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are there legally and have revitalized the city, making fun of those sharing such a stupid lie has a different kind of potential to defang it.  

And, aside from Trump’s evident worry, there are signs that Trump is vulnerable. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had scheduled a vote today on the continuing resolution to fund the government before the government will have to shut down on October 1. That measure included the voter suppression measure Trump demanded yesterday in all caps. Today, Johnson pulled the vote. 

Republicans are also breaking with Trump over the idea of an interest rate cut. Trump does not want the Fed to lower the cost of borrowing money before the election despite the softening job market—cheaper money should bolster the economy and provide more jobs—and has vowed that if he is reelected, he will take control of the Fed, which is now an independent institution. But Republicans are backing away from his demands. Representative Dan Meuser, a Trump supporter from the swing state of Pennsylvania, told Jasper Goodman and Eleanor Mueller of Politico that he supports a cut. “You’ve got to put the greater good ahead of looking political,” he said. 

Today the share price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the owner of the Truth Social platform, fell to new lows. The stock fell more than 10% today, ending the day at $16.68 from a high over $60 a share in April. In May, Trump’s stock was valued at more than $6 billion, although the company is losing money and has very few users. The drop over the last several months has wiped away more than $4 billion of that value. Trump needs money for his legal bills and settlements, as well as his businesses, and can begin to cash out on his stock soon, but selling much of it was always going to be a problem because if he dumped it, the bottom would fall out. Now selling is a problem because its value is dropping. 

In the face of concern that Trump and Vance have been suggesting they would challenge the results of the 2024 election, the Department of Homeland Security took steps to protect the January 6, 2025, session of Congress that will count the electoral votes that will decide the presidency. They have put January 6, 2025, on the same security level as the Super Bowl or a major event like the U.N. General Assembly. 

Finally, today is the 23rd anniversary of 9/11, the day terrorists from the al-Qaeda network used four civilian airplanes as weapons against the United States, and Trump used its commemoration to demonstrate another dominance trait: that he will behave however he wishes. Trump attended a remembrance with right-wing extremist Laura Loomer, who has shared not only the false pet-eating conspiracy theory, but also the false theory that “9/11 was an Inside Job!” Recently, she posted an appalling attack on Vice President Harris. Today she posted that she joined Trump because “I believe in unconditional loyalty to those who are deserving. And there is nobody more deserving of our loyalty and unwavering support than Donald Trump."

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris each issued statements about the anniversary. Biden vowed that the nation will never forget the attack, those lost, their families, and “the heroic citizens and survivors who rushed to help their fellow Americans. And never forget that when faced with evil—and an enemy that sought to tear us apart—we endured.”

Harris echoed Biden. She also emphasized the national unity the crisis created as people came together to deny the terrorists the achievement of their goal “to attack and destroy our way of life—our democracy, our freedoms, and everything we hold dear as Americans.” She thanked the military personnel who served in Afghanistan and elsewhere to root out terrorism, and urged Americans to “reflect on what binds us together as one: the greatest privilege on Earth, the pride and privilege of being an American.” 

All three were at a commemoration of 9/11 today. Trump and Harris shook hands, and he tried the dominance trick of using the handshake to pull Harris toward him, which she firmly resisted. His social media website confirmed that the world of professional wrestling is very much on Trump’s mind as he apparently tried to reassure himself he, and not Kamala Harris, is the dominant political figure in the country. He clearly doesn’t want to agree to another debate and is trying to spin his reluctance as a show of power. 

“In the World of Boxing or U[ltimate] F[ighting] C[hampionship] when a Fighter gets beaten or knocked out, they get up and scream, ‘I DEMAND A REMATCH, I DEMAND A REMATCH!’” he wrote. “Well, it’s no different with a Debate. She was beaten badly last night. Every Poll has us WINNING, in one case, 92–8, so why would I do a Rematch?”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[purplelinks]

12/28/2024: 2

[knockout1207]

泣き虫シュレディンガー(紫の幻覚)

初見。

ユトレヒトさんの作品4作目「泣き虫シュレディンガー」

シリーズで初めてイントロが入っていました。

最初に入ってる音は、猫に付いてた鈴の音かな？🐈

予想では、ホロスコープの4ハウス、或いは蟹座が司る「家庭」や、支配星である「月」が司る「母性」や「防御」、「7歳までの子供時代」について作品にされるのかと思っていました。

これは解釈次第ですね。

蟹座の対応部位は胸部(胃、肝臓、胆のう含む)で、ストレスを感じると弱る部分です。

(※心臓は獅子座の領域なので、次の作品で心臓にダメージを負うかもしれません)

また蟹座の180度向かいの星座は、山羊座なので骨���皮膚に影響を受けます。

走っている時に平衡感覚に乏しく転びそうになってるのは、骨があまり丈夫ではないのでしょう。

右足の学生靴の方で踏み込んだ時にバランスを崩しているので、右足の膝関節はあまり良い状態ではないのかもしれません。

(学生の運動不足を揶揄？)

映像の方は、灰色の子の『妄想』か『過去世の記憶』か不明瞭ですが、Box and Coxっぽい手法は取られていました。

でも電車に乗っていたので、話が脱線している可能性もあるかもしれません。

現在「犬と屑」という地方局のドラマOPに、この楽曲が使われているらしく、犬飼というキャラクターが線路で亡くなってるらしいので、本筋以外の読み方をすると「スパイ或いは警察は無理矢理殺された」と読めそうです。

(※相手に「強制する」という意味の英語表現は「force one to do something」の以外にも「railroad(鉄道)」という使い方もあるそうです)

🐕以外にも🌸とか🦅とか🦆とか出てくるそうなので、スパイや警察、公安の協力者やらアメリカの諜報機関やら陰陽師やら、色々匂わせる隠語表現が出てきているので暗号的な何かなのでしょう。

まあ、偶然ですね。

・・・・・・・。

話が脱線したので戻ります。

最初の花園のカット。

水瓶座30度のサビアンシンボル「アーダスの咲く野原」を連想させるカットで、一瞬「最終回なのかな？」と思いました。

とても美しい花園なので天国の比喩かとも思ったのですが

♪軽いめまいで踏みはずす

の部分で、とんでもなく邪惡な花畑を見せつけられて戦慄。

私がもしも、このような邪惡な花畑を現実世界で見つけたら、例え『愛とかいう化け物』と形容されようとも、ジブリのナウシカに出てきた巨神兵になって、花を全部を焼き尽くし薙ぎ払いたい気分です。

医療用に管理栽培されていない花は、根絶やしにしなければいけません。

現在のオランダでも多分こんな花畑は許されないですよ。

日本だけではないですが、薬物汚染は深刻ですよね……。

脳が依存してしまうので抜け出せない。

映画の「レクイエム・フォー・ドリーム」を見たことがあるのですが、誰も幸せになれないので絶対に手を出してはいけません。

一瞬得られる脳の多幸感の為に、人生を棒に振るようなことはして欲しくないです。

芥子の樹液から取れるアヘンが原因で戦争が起きたこともあります。

灰色の子がアヘン中毒と言っている訳ではないです。

でも髪の長い緑の目をした人物は、顔が見えなくなる時、$の文字が最初に出ていたので、もしかしたら戦費として芥子を栽培していた時代なのかなと思いました。

ホロスコープ的には、個を司る火地風水の星座領域(牡羊座、牡牛座、双子座、蟹座)は終了したと思うので、「1期」が終わったという感じでしょうか？

考察はまた気が向いた時にします。

[assortedantics]

EVERYBODY WATCH IT. NOW. INSTANTLY. I LIKE IT A LOT.

[fyeahjessecox]

[jt1674]

[sincericida]

I want Charlie Cox’s milkers in my face

Yes, me too 👀🫦

[marlocandeea]

Jennie Sherman-Cox