#Industrial estimating and forecasting

[asestimationsconsultants]

Key Cost Factors in Industrial Estimating Service

An Industrial Estimating Service plays a critical role in budgeting and financial planning for large-scale industrial projects. From raw material procurement to labor costs and risk contingencies, various factors contribute to the overall cost estimation. Understanding these key cost factors helps businesses create more accurate budgets, minimize financial risks, and ensure project feasibility.

1. Material Costs

Materials make up a significant portion of industrial project expenses. The cost of raw materials such as steel, concrete, glass, piping, and specialized equipment fluctuates due to factors like supply chain disruptions, inflation, and demand trends. An industrial estimating service evaluates:

Current Market Prices – Keeping track of price variations to ensure accurate budgeting.

Bulk Purchasing Discounts – Identifying cost-saving opportunities through bulk orders.

Alternative Material Options – Recommending cost-effective alternatives without compromising quality.

2. Labor Costs

The workforce required for industrial projects varies based on project complexity and duration. Labor costs include:

Hourly Wages and Salaries – Skilled labor, project managers, and specialized workers contribute to overall costs.

Overtime and Shift Work – If a project requires 24/7 operation or overtime work, costs increase significantly.

Union Regulations – In some regions, labor unions set minimum wages and benefits that must be factored into estimates.

3. Equipment and Machinery Costs

Industrial projects require heavy machinery, such as cranes, excavators, and conveyor systems. Cost factors include:

Equipment Purchase vs. Rental – Estimators determine whether it’s more cost-effective to buy or lease machinery.

Maintenance and Repairs – Regular maintenance costs must be considered to avoid unexpected breakdowns.

Fuel and Energy Consumption – Industrial machinery often requires high energy input, increasing operational costs.

4. Site Preparation and Land Development

The condition of the construction site influences the overall project cost. Some common cost factors in site preparation include:

Excavation and Land Clearing – Removing existing structures, debris, or vegetation to prepare the site.

Soil Testing and Foundation Work – Ensuring the ground is stable and suitable for construction.

Drainage and Environmental Compliance – Meeting environmental regulations and setting up proper drainage systems.

5. Permit and Regulatory Costs

Industrial projects must comply with various government regulations, permits, and safety standards. These costs include:

Building Permits – Fees for obtaining construction approvals from local authorities.

Environmental Compliance – Costs for assessments related to pollution control, waste management, and sustainability.

Safety and Occupational Health – Ensuring compliance with worker safety regulations and hazard control measures.

6. Project Management and Administrative Costs

A well-managed industrial project requires experienced project managers, engineers, and administrative staff. These costs include:

Project Coordination – Salaries of engineers, supervisors, and management personnel.

Legal and Accounting Services – Expenses for handling contracts, financial planning, and audits.

Software and Technology – Investing in project management and estimating software for accurate budgeting.

7. Contingency and Risk Management

Unforeseen expenses can disrupt industrial projects, so a contingency budget is essential. Cost estimators include:

Risk Allowance – A percentage of the total budget allocated for unexpected changes.

Market Fluctuations – Protection against sudden price increases in materials or labor.

Delays and Penalties – Financial preparation for project delays and potential contractual penalties.

8. Logistics and Transportation

Transporting materials, machinery, and labor to the project site contributes to overall costs. Estimators analyze:

Freight and Shipping Fees – Costs of importing or transporting heavy materials.

Storage and Warehousing – Expenses related to storing materials before use.

On-Site Transportation – Fuel and maintenance costs for vehicles used within the project site.

Conclusion

A reliable Industrial Estimating Service considers all these key cost factors to develop a precise project budget. By evaluating materials, labor, equipment, permits, and unforeseen risks, industrial estimators help companies optimize spending and avoid financial setbacks. With technological advancements improving cost estimation accuracy, businesses can achieve better financial control and efficiency in industrial projects.

[forecaststats]

Market Outlook - Forecast Stats

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[txttletale]

genuinely curious but I don't know how to phrase this in a way that sounds less accusatory so please know I'm asking in good faith and am just bad at words

what are your thoughts on the environmental impact of generative ai? do you think the cost for all the cooling system is worth the tasks generative ai performs? I've been wrangling this because while I feel like I can justify it as smaller scales, that would mean it isn't a publicly available tool which I also feel uncomfortable with

the environmental impacts of genAI are almost always one of three things, both by their detractors and their boosters:

vastly overstated

stated correctly, but with a deceptive lack of context (ie, giving numbers in watt-hours, or amount of water 'used' for cooling, without necessary context like what comparable services use or what actually happens to that water)

assumed to be on track to grow constantly as genAI sees universal adoption across every industry

like, when water is used to cool a datacenter, that datacenter isn't just "a big building running chatgpt" -- datacenters are the backbone of the modern internet. now, i mean, all that said, the basic question here: no, i don't think it's a good tradeoff to be burning fossil fuels to power the magic 8ball. but asking that question in a vacuum (imo) elides a lot of the realities of power consumption in the global north by exceptionalizing genAI as opposed to, for example, video streaming, or online games. or, for that matter, for any number of other things.

so to me a lot of this stuff seems like very selective outrage in most cases, people working backwards from all the twitter artists on their dashboard hating midjourney to find an ethical reason why it is irredeemably evil.

& in the best, good-faith cases, it's taking at face value the claims of genAI companies and datacenter owners that the power usage will continue spiralling as the technology is integrated into every aspect of our lives. but to be blunt, i think it's a little naive to take these estimates seriously: these companies rely on their stock prices remaining high and attractive to investors, so they have enormous financial incentives not only to lie but to make financial decisions as if the universal adoption boom is just around the corner at all times. but there's no actual business plan! these companies are burning gigantic piles of money every day, because this is a bubble

so tldr: i don't think most things fossil fuels are burned for are 'worth it', but the response to that is a comprehensive climate politics and not an individualistic 'carbon footprint' approach, certainly not one that chooses chatgpt as its battleground. genAI uses a lot of power but at a rate currently comparable to other massively popular digital leisure products like fortnite or netflix -- forecasts of it massively increasing by several orders of magnitude are in my opinion unfounded and can mostly be traced back to people who have a direct financial stake in this being the case because their business model is an obvious boondoggle otherwise.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Tim Eagan, Cagle Cartoons

* * * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

March 10, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson

Mar 11, 2025

Last week’s dramatically dropping stock market prompted Fox News Channel personality Maria Bartiromo to ask Trump in an interview that aired yesterday if he was expecting a recession. Trump answered: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”

Yesterday evening, on Air Force One, a reporter asked President Donald Trump if he is worried about a recession. “Who knows?” the president answered. “All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch. We’re going to have jobs. We’re going to have open factories. It’s going to be great.”

Today the stock market plunged.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 prominent companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges fell by 890 points, more than 2%. The S&P 500, which tracks the stocks of 500 of the largest companies listed in the U.S., fell by 2.7%. The Nasdaq Composite, which tracks tech stocks, fell by 4%. Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla closed down more than 15%, dropping more than 45% this year. Tonight, as the Asian markets opened on the other side of the world, the slide continued.

According to MarketWatch, this is the worst start to a presidential term since 2009, when the country was in the subprime mortgage crisis. Trump did not inherit an economy mired in crisis, of course; he inherited what was, at the time, the strongest economy in the world. That booming economy is no more: Goldman is now predicting higher inflation and slower growth than it had previously forecast, while its forecast for Europe is now stronger than it had been.

Trump has always been a dodgy salesman more than anything, telling supporters what they want to hear. He insisted that the strong economy under former president Joe Biden was, in fact, a disaster that only he could fix. In October, Trump told attendees at a rally: “We will begin a new era of soaring incomes. Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

That sales pitch got Trump away from the criminal cases against him and back into the White House. Now, though, he needs to make the sales pitch fit into a reality that it doesn’t match. Trump is “steering the country toward a downturn with his tariffs and cuts to spending and the federal workforce—for no logical reason,” Washington Post economic reporter Heather Long wrote on March 6. “Trump’s whipsaw actions have put businesses and consumers on edge,” she noted. If they stop spending at the same time that the government slashes jobs and spending, a downward spiral could lead to a recession. “Trump is inciting an economic storm,” Long wrote. “The big question is why he’s doing this.”

One answer might be that Trump’s top priority is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, at the same time that he has also promised to cut the deficit. Those two things are utterly at odds: the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending the tax cuts will cost the country more than $4 trillion over the next ten years.

Tariffs appear to have been Trump’s workaround for that incompatibility. He claimed that tariffs would shift the burden of funding the U.S. government to foreign countries. When economists reiterated that tariffs are paid by U.S. consumers and would drive up prices and slow growth, he insisted they were wrong. Increasingly, tariffs seem to have become for him not just the solution to his economic dilemma, but also a symbol of American strength.

“[T]ariffs are not just about protecting American jobs,” Trump told Congress last week. “They are about protecting the soul of our country. Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it is happening and it will happen rather quickly. There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”

After watching Trump talk to Fox News Channel host Bret Baier in mid-February, Will Saletan of The Bulwark noted that Trump seemed truly to believe that tariffs would bring in “tremendous amounts of money.” For that, as well as his apparent conviction that Palestinians should evacuate Gaza so the U.S. could “take over” and develop the real estate there, and that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, and so on, Saletan concluded “Donald Trump is Delusional.”

Another reason for Trump’s dogged determination to impose tariffs despite the pain they are inflicting on Americans might lie in James Fallows’s observation in Breaking the News after the president’s speech to Congress that Trump’s mental acuity is slipping. Fallows noted that Trump’s vocabulary has shrunk markedly since his first term and he appears to be falling back on “more primitive and predictable” phrases. Tonight the president appeared to be moving back in time, as well, advertising the availability of the first season of “the Emmy nominated ORIGINAL APPRENTICE STARRING PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP.”

The White House said today in a statement: “Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs. President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

As the administration’s economic policies are rocking the economy, the administration’s arrest and detention of Mahmoud Khalil, a 30-year-old Syrian-born Palestinian activist who figured prominently in the Gaza Solidarity Encampment at Columbia University last April, seems designed to rock society. According to Democracy Now, Khalil is an Algerian citizen, but he holds a U.S. green card and is married to a U.S. citizen who is 8 months pregnant.

Shortly after he took office, Trump issued an executive order saying he would revoke the student visas of anyone he claimed sympathized with Hamas. On Saturday, agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested Khalil. Khalil’s lawyer said that ICE agents claimed they were acting on the orders of the State Department to revoke Khalil’s student visa, apparently unaware that Khalil, who graduated from Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs in December 2024, is a lawful permanent resident of the United States. When his wife showed officers documents proving that status, the lawyer said, an officer said they were revoking his green card instead. He is apparently being held in Louisiana.

The revocation of a green card is very rare. The Associated Press noted that the Department of Homeland Security can begin the process of deportation for lawful permanent residents who are connected to alleged criminal activity. But Khalil hasn’t been charged with a crime. Nik Popli of Time magazine notes that a green card holder can be deported for supporting terrorist groups, but in that case the government must have material evidence. A Homeland Security spokesperson did not offer any such evidence, saying simply that Khalil’s arrest was “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism” and that Khalil “led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization.”

That is, the Trump administration has arrested and detained a legal resident for expressing an opinion that Trump officials don’t like, likely using Khalil to launch this extraordinary attack on the First Amendment because they don’t expect Americans to care deeply about his fate. Once the principle is established that the government can arrest and jail protesters, though, officials will use it to silence opposition broadly. “This is the first arrest of many to come,” Trump posted just after noon. “We know there are more students at Columbia who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump Administration will not tolerate it.”

Representative Greg Casar (D-TX) posted: “This is illegal, and it endangers the rights of all Americans. In this country, people must be free to express their views—left or right, popular or unpopular—without being detained or punished by the government.” On this basic principle, Americans across the political spectrum appear to agree. Right-wing pundit Ann Coulter was one of those who stepped back from the idea of arrests and deportations of those expressing opinions. “There’s almost no one I don’t want to deport,” she posted, “but, unless they’ve committed a crime, isn’t this a violation of the first amendment?”

Today, U.S. District Judge Jesse M. Furman ordered that Khalil “shall not be removed from the United States unless and until the Court orders otherwise,” and ordered a hearing on Wednesday.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[misfitwashere]

March 10, 2025 

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

MAR 11

Last week’s dramatically dropping stock market prompted Fox News Channel personality Maria Bartiromo to ask Trump in an interview that aired yesterday if he was expecting a recession. Trump answered: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”

Yesterday evening, on Air Force One, a reporter asked President Donald Trump if he is worried about a recession. “Who knows?” the president answered. “All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch. We’re going to have jobs. We’re going to have open factories. It’s going to be great.”

Today the stock market plunged.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 prominent companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges fell by 890 points, more than 2%. The S&P 500, which tracks the stocks of 500 of the largest companies listed in the U.S., fell by 2.7%. The Nasdaq Composite, which tracks tech stocks, fell by 4%. Shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla closed down more than 15%, dropping more than 45% this year. Tonight, as the Asian markets opened on the other side of the world, the slide continued.

According to MarketWatch, this is the worst start to a presidential term since 2009, when the country was in the subprime mortgage crisis. Trump did not inherit an economy mired in crisis, of course; he inherited what was, at the time, the strongest economy in the world. That booming economy is no more: Goldman is now predicting higher inflation and slower growth than it had previously forecast, while its forecast for Europe is now stronger than it had been.

Trump has always been a dodgy salesman more than anything, telling supporters what they want to hear. He insisted that the strong economy under former president Joe Biden was, in fact, a disaster that only he could fix. In October, Trump told attendees at a rally: “We will begin a new era of soaring incomes. Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

That sales pitch got Trump away from the criminal cases against him and back into the White House. Now, though, he needs to make the sales pitch fit into a reality that it doesn’t match. Trump is “steering the country toward a downturn with his tariffs and cuts to spending and the federal workforce—for no logical reason,” Washington Post economic reporter Heather Long wrote on March 6. “Trump’s whipsaw actions have put businesses and consumers on edge,” she noted. If they stop spending at the same time that the government slashes jobs and spending, a downward spiral could lead to a recession. “Trump is inciting an economic storm,” Long wrote. “The big question is why he’s doing this.”

One answer might be that Trump’s top priority is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, at the same time that he has also promised to cut the deficit. Those two things are utterly at odds: the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending the tax cuts will cost the country more than $4 trillion over the next ten years.

Tariffs appear to have been Trump’s workaround for that incompatibility. He claimed that tariffs would shift the burden of funding the U.S. government to foreign countries. When economists reiterated that tariffs are paid by U.S. consumers and would drive up prices and slow growth, he insisted they were wrong. Increasingly, tariffs seem to have become for him not just the solution to his economic dilemma, but also a symbol of American strength.

“[T]ariffs are not just about protecting American jobs,” Trump told Congress last week. “They are about protecting the soul of our country. Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it is happening and it will happen rather quickly. There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”

After watching Trump talk to Fox News Channel host Bret Baier in mid-February, Will Saletan of The Bulwark noted that Trump seemed truly to believe that tariffs would bring in “tremendous amounts of money.” For that, as well as his apparent conviction that Palestinians should evacuate Gaza so the U.S. could “take over” and develop the real estate there, and that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, and so on, Saletan concluded “Donald Trump is Delusional.”

Another reason for Trump’s dogged determination to impose tariffs despite the pain they are inflicting on Americans might lie in James Fallows’s observation in Breaking the News after the president’s speech to Congress that Trump’s mental acuity is slipping. Fallows noted that Trump’s vocabulary has shrunk markedly since his first term and he appears to be falling back on “more primitive and predictable” phrases. Tonight the president appeared to be moving back in time, as well, advertising the availability of the first season of “the Emmy nominated ORIGINAL APPRENTICE STARRING PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP.”

The White House said today in a statement: “Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs. President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

As the administration’s economic policies are rocking the economy, the administration’s arrest and detention of Mahmoud Khalil, a 30-year-old Syrian-born Palestinian activist who figured prominently in the Gaza Solidarity Encampment at Columbia University last April, seems designed to rock society. According to Democracy Now, Khalil is an Algerian citizen, but he holds a U.S. green card and is married to a U.S. citizen who is 8 months pregnant.

Shortly after he took office, Trump issued an executive order saying he would revoke the student visas of anyone he claimed sympathized with Hamas. On Saturday, agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested Khalil. Khalil’s lawyer said that ICE agents claimed they were acting on the orders of the State Department to revoke Khalil’s student visa, apparently unaware that Khalil, who graduated from Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs in December 2024, is a lawful permanent resident of the United States. When his wife showed officers documents proving that status, the lawyer said, an officer said they were revoking his green card instead. He is apparently being held in Louisiana.

The revocation of a green card is very rare. The Associated Press noted that the Department of Homeland Security can begin the process of deportation for lawful permanent residents who are connected to alleged criminal activity. But Khalil hasn’t been charged with a crime. Nik Popli of Time magazine notes that a green card holder can be deported for supporting terrorist groups, but in that case the government must have material evidence. A Homeland Security spokesperson did not offer any such evidence, saying simply that Khalil’s arrest was “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism” and that Khalil “led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization.”

That is, the Trump administration has arrested and detained a legal resident for expressing an opinion that Trump officials don’t like, likely using Khalil to launch this extraordinary attack on the First Amendment because they don’t expect Americans to care deeply about his fate. Once the principle is established that the government can arrest and jail protesters, though, officials will use it to silence opposition broadly. “This is the first arrest of many to come,” Trump posted just after noon. “We know there are more students at Columbia who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump Administration will not tolerate it.”

Representative Greg Casar (D-TX) posted: “This is illegal, and it endangers the rights of all Americans. In this country, people must be free to express their views—left or right, popular or unpopular—without being detained or punished by the government.” On this basic principle, Americans across the political spectrum appear to agree. Right-wing pundit Ann Coulter was one of those who stepped back from the idea of arrests and deportations of those expressing opinions. “There’s almost no one I don’t want to deport,” she posted, “but, unless they’ve committed a crime, isn’t this a violation of the first amendment?”

Today, U.S. District Judge Jesse M. Furman ordered that Khalil “shall not be removed from the United States unless and until the Court orders otherwise,” and ordered a hearing on Wednesday.

—

[h50europe]

9-1-1 - Black Hawk Down

(Helicopter crash, Angst)

It was supposed to be a routine flight. Tommy climbed into the cockpit of the UH-60M Black Hawk and immediately felt like he had never left. He put on his helmet, grabbed the checklist and started to run it. Tommy remembered his tours in Afghanistan and Iraq and how this beast had become one of his closest comrades. Beast, he chuckled. That was Evan's nickname for him. He owned it to their first night together, where Tommy surprised Evan with his stamina and some other tricks that had left the younger man craving for more and sending him into the stratosphere as he came hard while a multiple orgasm ripped through him.

Tommy bit his lower lip as his blood rushed south, reminding himself that he had a job to do and needed to focus. He flipped switches, checked the tanks, and meticulously followed the entire list. When he was done, he placed it in the co-pilot's seat and hit the start button. The twin General Electric T700-GE-701 turboshaft engines, each rated at 1,560 shaft horsepower, roared to life. The sound of the mighty blades was like music to Tommy's ears. He wished Evan could be with him, but he got a call about an hour ago and was ordered to the station. A fire at an industrial plant was threatening to get out of control. Dispatch had ordered all available engines to the scene. Tommy's only mission today was to fly the Black Hawk to Renegade airfield near Vegas. It should be a smooth flight. The weather forecast promised clear blue skies. A little turbulence was expected, but nothing troubling.

Tommy felt the familiar vibrations caused by the whirling rotor blades. Flying a Black Hawk was so different from the helicopters they used at LAFD Air Operations. Tommy radioed the tower and asked for a VFR departure: "Echo Lima Foxtrot, VFR departure east at or below 1,500 feet."

The tower replied: "Echo Lima Foxtrot, stay east of runway 10/28 at all times, east departure approved. You are cleared for takeoff from taxiway Bravo."

There was a static crackle, then a familiar voice came on and said, "Ground Control to Major Tom, have a save flight."

Tommy cackled, "I have no idea how you did that, Hen, but you rock."

"Copy that," she replied with a big smile on her face.

Hen was sitting in the tower next to one of the controllers. She had been training some of the employees in first aid today and had heard about Tommy and his Vegas trip. Grinning, she leaned back and watched him take off and then transition.

The estimated flight time was about 1.5 hours. Tommy felt relaxed and looked forward to the upcoming flight. He knew that flying over the desert could be challenging due to the absence of reference points and the constantly shifting sand caused by the wind. However, he was prepared to rely on his instruments to navigate through these conditions.

As the routine flight progressed, the atmosphere changed when the Black Hawk's responder signal was abruptly lost, and the helicopter vanished from the radar. Strangely, there was no distress call from Tommy. Meanwhile, Hen was packing her bags when she suddenly became aware of the chaos unfolding in the tower.

[mariacallous]

On March 9, 1933, five days after the first Presidential Inauguration of Franklin D. Roosevelt, a special session of Congress, which Roosevelt had called to deal with an unprecedented economic crisis, convened on Capitol Hill. Roughly a third of Americans were jobless; hungry people were filling up soup kitchens across the country; and banks were collapsing as worried depositors rushed to withdraw their funds. On the first day that Congress met, it passed an Emergency Banking Act, which restored public trust in the banks by authorizing federal examiners to review their books and pronounce them sound, and also by paving the way for a federal guarantee on bank deposits. During the ensuing weeks, Congress established the Civilian Conservation Corps and the Federal Emergency Relief Administration to put some of the unemployed to work. In addition to this, it created the Tennessee Valley Authority to bring electrical power and jobs to one of the poorest regions of the United States. On June 16th, the ninety-ninth day of the congressional session and the hundred and fourth day of Roosevelt’s tenure, he signed into law the National Industrial Recovery Act, which guaranteed collective-bargaining rights to workers and launched a Public Works Administration to build large infrastructure projects.

The following month, in a radio address to the nation, Roosevelt referred to the “hundred days which had been devoted to the starting of the wheels of the New Deal.” From then on, Roosevelt’s “hundred days” has been viewed as a template for forceful Presidential action, and a standard by which to judge subsequent Presidents. When Donald Trump’s hundred days comes to an end, this Wednesday, he will have outmatched Roosevelt in one area: he has signed a hundred and thirty executive orders to F.D.R.’s ninety-nine. And yet Trump doesn’t have a single piece of major legislation to his name, and his economic policies, compared with Roosevelt’s, are having the opposite effect.

F.D.R.’s whirlwind of actions didn’t bring the Great Depression to an immediate end, but, in an economy that was in a state of collapse, they restored hope and confidence. Trump, by setting off a chaotic trade war that has spooked American households and businesses alike, has single-handedly stunned an economy that, when he took over, was characterized by strong growth, a healthy rate of business investment, and a soaring stock market. Last Friday, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers reported that consumer confidence has sunk to its second-lowest level ever: only the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a lower reading. As the Commerce Department prepares to release its initial estimate of G.D.P. growth for the first quarter of 2025, economic forecasters are expecting an anemic rate of just 0.3 per cent, down from 2.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year, when Joe Biden was still in the White House.

Part of this weakness can be attributed to American consumers and firms rushing to buy imported goods, which aren’t factored into the G.D.P., before Trump’s tariffs go into full effect. But there are other signs of instability, too, including gyrations in the financial markets. Last week, stocks rallied after Trump said he may reduce the level of tariffs on China and backed off his threat to fire Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve. But, since Trump took office, the Dow has dropped by about eight per cent, the bond market has experienced atypical price fluctuations, and the value of the dollar has fallen sharply—an unusual combination of market movements that some people on Wall Street have dubbed the “Sell America” trade. In a little more than three months, investors have gone from salivating over the prospects of a Trump Administration to issuing a vote of no confidence in it.

Despite all the drama, over-all consumer spending, which includes purchases of imported goods, hasn’t cratered. “We don’t see any change at this point,” Michael Miebach, the C.E.O. of Mastercard, said at a conference last week. In certain parts of the economy, though, cracks are appearing, particularly in areas where spending is discretionary. Announcing Delta Air Lines’ latest quarterly financial results, the company’s leader, Ed Bastian, said that “growth has largely stalled.” Scott Boatwright, the boss of Chipotle, said the fast-casual restaurant chain has seen “a slowdown in consumer spending,” which he attributed to people “saving money because of concerns around the economy.”

Many of these concerns revolve around Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policy. Currently, it consists of a ten-per-cent levy on goods from nearly all foreign countries, along with considerably higher “reciprocal” tariffs that have been suspended for ninety days; duties of twenty-five per cent on steel, aluminum, cars, and some car parts; tariffs at the same level on some goods imported from Canada and Mexico; and tariffs of a hundred and forty-five per cent on products from China. One way to make sense of the impact of all these figures is to gauge the extra cost that American consumers are paying for imported goods: according to the Budget Lab at Yale, the over-all average effective tariff rate is now twenty-eight per cent, the highest it has been since 1901.

Big businesses are still trying to figure out how to navigate the higher costs of importing finished goods and components, and whether they can mitigate things by switching suppliers. Last week, Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Kleenex tissues, Huggies diapers, and Scott toilet-paper rolls, said the tariffs will add three hundred million dollars to its gross costs. Danaher, which makes medical and industrial devices, said the toll on its operations could be as much as three hundred and fifty million dollars. Small businesses, which, according to some studies, generate close to half of all economic activity in the U.S., don’t issue public reports, but countless restaurant owners, retailers, and car dealers are going through the same sorts of calculations. Meanwhile, the rest of us are starting to face higher prices for goods made abroad. Some sellers on Amazon have already raised their prices to reflect the new tariffs. So have the Chinese fast-fashion companies Shein and Temu, whose products are particularly popular with Gen Z-ers.

Practically everywhere, confusion reigns—and no wonder. “The degree of chaos and uncertainty that has been unleashed upon the U.S. economy, and the world economy, is unprecedented,” Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and former senior official at the International Monetary Fund, told me. “There have been other Administrations that have come to office and had to deal with instability early on. But the fact that this Administration comes in and its own policies are what stoked instability is quite remarkable.”

Trump’s trade war now encompasses the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China, and the European Union—and dozens of other countries. Prasad spent part of last week in Washington at the annual meeting of the I.M.F. and World Bank, two multilateral pillars of the pre-Trump global economic order, where he spoke with a number of economists and officials from overseas. “To some degree, all the officials I talked to were saying the same thing: ‘We can’t believe that the U.S. has come to this pass,’ ” he told me. “And then they were all trying to figure out how to adapt to this new reality. The sense is that the world has changed fundamentally in ways that cannot be easily put back together again.”

Despite the relative calm that settled over the financial markets last week, there is still a great deal of nervousness about what lies ahead, along with widespread skepticism about the Administration. “This is the first time in my career that people have asked genuine questions about the basic competency of U.S. policymakers,” Dario Perkins, a managing director at TS Lombard, a London-based economics consultancy, said to me. “We have had policy mistakes before—the Fed not raising interest rates in time or ignoring subprime—but to many investors this has seemed like complete recklessness and complete disregard for the effect it has on the economy and financial markets.”

As part of his job, Perkins, who once worked at the British Treasury, engages with institutional investors who have long preferred to park a good deal of the money they manage in the United States. In the first weeks of Trump’s return, he recalled, some of them were willing to take seriously the idea that Trump and the White House might be engaged in 4-D chess—that there might be some hidden grand strategy behind the tariff announcements and reversals. But this attitude largely disappeared on April 2nd, Perkins noted, after Trump stood in the White House Rose Garden and held up a big board showing the so-called reciprocal tariffs that he was imposing on more than a hundred countries, including poverty-stricken nations such as Lesotho, in Africa, and an uninhabited pair of islands near Antarctica. “It wasn’t just the numbers in the table,” Perkins said, recalling the event. “It was the basic lack of understanding of international trade that underpinned it. And it was the whole image. You’ve got him holding up the table like some sort of game-show host. That was the moment—the realization.”

Since then, the news out of the White House has hardly been reassuring. According to the Wall Street Journal, Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, were only able to persuade Trump to suspend the reciprocal tariffs by cornering him when Peter Navarro, Trump’s hawkish trade counsellor, was in a different meeting. It seems like Bessent and Lutnick had to stage another intervention to persuade the President that firing Powell would backfire. All things considered, the economic policymaking of Trump’s team looks less like rational deliberation and more like firefighting while knowing that the fire chief is the primary arsonist.

From a strictly financial perspective, perhaps the most surprising and disturbing development has been the behavior of the bond market and the dollar. Normally, when there is some sort of economic crisis and the stock market slumps, investors buy U.S. Treasury bonds, which have long been regarded as safe bets in times of trouble. To buy Treasuries, overseas investors need dollars, which drives up the value of U.S. currency. But, in the period before Trump suspended his reciprocal tariffs, and again before he backpedalled on his attacks on Powell, stocks, bonds, and the currency fell in unison—a phenomenon more commonly associated with developing countries experiencing capital flight.

The bond market is complex, and some financial commentators have attributed the recent volatility to homegrown problems, including oversupply because of the ongoing need to issue large quantities of new bonds to finance the budget deficit. But there may be other factors in play, too, including a worldwide decline in confidence in the United States and its government. “The principle that, whenever there is trouble, people run back to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries—that was a presupposition in the markets,” Prasad said. “But now it has become clear that the elements of the institutional framework that underpinned this trust—the rule of law, the independence of the central bank, the checks and balances—each of these is being shredded by Trump. That has caused the entire world to reassess its view about the safety of U.S. Treasuries.”

For a country with more than thirty trillion dollars in outstanding government debt, about eight trillion of which is owned by foreigners, the spectre of a weakened Treasury bond market is alarming. A lasting shift away from American financial assets would force the U.S. government to offer higher yields on its debt, increasing its interest payments, which already exceed the Pentagon budget. In a more extreme scenario, falling demand for Treasuries could be associated with a big slide in the value of the dollar and the threat of a major financial crisis. This was roughly what happened in Britain in 2022 when the new government of Liz Truss announced a mini-budget that financial markets, and the Bank of England, regarded as grossly irresponsible. A few weeks later, Truss was gone.

The United States is a much bigger, stronger country than Britain, and Trump is in a more secure position than Truss was. Regardless of how recklessly he behaves, there are no obvious, reliable alternatives to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. “Some institutional investors are putting money in gold, bitcoin, and other currencies,” Prasad noted. “Some central banks are doing the same. But can you really take a couple of hundred billion dollars and put it in other pots? There really isn’t much of a place for it to go. So, is all this going to produce a fundamental shift away from the dollar? It is premature to make a strong case for that.”

Perkins agreed with this analysis. He also said a better analogy than the Truss implosion is Britain’s decision, in 2016, to leave the European Union. “I’m not sure that what the Trump Administration is doing will cause a big recession or a big financial crisis—in the same way that Brexit didn’t,” he said. “But over time you just see the things they are doing damaging the economy.” Citing studies of populist governments in Turkey, Hungary, and other places, he went on, “That’s the way with populism. It typically ends up in this slow-burn destruction, and then it feeds on itself. They make the underlying problem worse, which leads to more populism. They undermine institutions. Eventually, it becomes all about the self-survival of the populist regime rather than the economy.” Is that the fate awaiting us here in the United States? We’ve got another three and a half years to find out. That may be the most alarming thing of all.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Brazilian Floods Are Inflicting Billions in Economic Devastation

The floods and severe rainfall that ravaged Southern Brazil are hurting the nation’s powerhouse agricultural sector, with industries from auto manufacturing to banking and insurance also bracing for disruption.

Heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, left entire cities under water and shut down its main airport indefinitely. More than 400 municipalities and 1.5 million people have been affected, according to the latest government data. About 164,000 residents have been displaced and 100 died as a result of the downpour, which started April 28.

Initial estimates from Enki Research suggest an economic impact of at least $2.5 billion in the state. That preliminary number, based on research models and satellite data, is expected to grow as water levels are still high and more storms are expected for the region in coming days.

“That is physical damage to infrastructure and agriculture, along with business revenue losses not recovered within six months,” said Enki’s Chuck Watson. “More rain is forecast over the next week so unfortunately it will probably get worse.”

Continue reading.

[beardedmrbean]

California could be heading toward a severe energy and economic crisis, with gas prices potentially surging 75 percent to $8.43 per gallon by 2026, according to a new warning from the state's Republican Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones.

Why It Matters

Retail prices for regular grade gasoline in California are already consistently higher than in any other state in the continental United States, often exceeding the national average by more than a dollar per gallon.

Therefore, a dramatic surge in gas prices could deepen California's cost-of-living crisis, strain working families, and reverberate through the broader economy.

What To Know

Jones' warning comes after two major refineries, Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia, announced they will close by the end of 2026. The closures will reduce the number of gasoline producers in the state from nine to seven.

In a letter sent to Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom on Tuesday, Jones called for immediate action to prevent the closure of the two refineries, which produce roughly 20 percent of California's gasoline supply.

The closures—Phillips 66 in Los Angeles by the end of 2025 and Valero in Benicia by April 2026—are forecasted to trigger a sharp spike in fuel prices, based on analysis by University of Southern California Professor Michael Mische. His projections indicate gas could hit $6.43 per gallon after the first closure and soar to $8.43 once both refineries are offline, with even higher prices possible under volatile market conditions.

"If the Governor doesn't act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods," said Jones. "We're talking about gas prices over $8.43 per gallon by the end of next year."

In response, Newsom's spokesperson, Daniel Villaseñor, told Newsweek the governor recently directed the state to intensify collaboration with refiners to maintain a stable and affordable gasoline supply.

"Governor Newsom will keep fighting to protect Californians from price spikes at the pump," Villaseñor said.

Experts generally agree that California gas prices are likely to rise if both the Phillips 66 and Valero refineries cease gasoline production, but the scale of the increase depends on broader supply conditions.

Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy estimates that prices could rise modestly—by 5 to 10 cents per gallon—if disruptions are limited, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. However, in the event of supply shocks like refinery fires or shipping delays, prices could spike between 50 cents and $1.50 per gallon.

California has already seen its gasoline prices rise. Last month, California's average price per gallon of gasoline was $4.85, which was about $1.69 higher than the national average. Per-gallon prices spiked above $6 twice in the last two years, spurring statewide panic and new legislation.

Meanwhile, Jones argues that the closures would not only hit consumers but also pose a major threat to jobs and local economies. The two refineries directly employ 1,300 workers and support nearly 3,000 additional jobs statewide through economic ripple effects, according to industry multipliers cited by Jones.

He added that the shutdowns would destabilize the state's fuel supply, increase reliance on out-of-state and foreign oil, and compromise national energy security.

As a result, he called on the governor to collaborate with California's fuel producers to explore emergency solutions, such as investment tax credits and regulatory relief, to avoid the shutdowns and maintain energy stability.

Newsom has come under fire from critics for the past for what they see as creating conditions that make refinery operations financially unviable in California due to high taxes and fees on oil and gas companies in the state, environmental requirements, special fuel requirements, and isolated petroleum markets.

"Let's be clear: Newsom owns this gas crisis," Jones said in his letter. "His policies have made it nearly impossible for California refineries to stay open."

The letter also criticizes recent legislation such as SBX1-2, ABX2-1, and modifications to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which Jones says have imposed excessive financial and regulatory burdens on gasoline producers.

Jones, a longtime critic of the Newsom administration's energy policies, previously raised similar concerns in a 2024 San Diego Union-Tribune op-ed, warning that the governor's approach would lead to a "self-inflicted gas price crisis."

But Newsom, once one of the oil industry's most vocal critics, has signaled a more cooperative approach in recent months as California faces the looming closure of major refineries and the threat of soaring gas prices.

In a recent letter to California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda, Newsom urged closer collaboration with refiners to maintain a reliable supply of gasoline and other transportation fuels during the state's transition to clean energy. He asked the commission to ensure that fuel producers "continue to see the value in serving the California market" and called for recommendations by July 1 on changes needed to secure supply over the next two decades.

This tone marks a noticeable shift from Newsom's previous confrontational stance. During past fuel price spikes in 2022 and 2023, the governor accused oil companies of "lying and gouging Californians to line their own pockets."

At his urging, California passed Senate Bill X1-2, creating the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight and granting the state power to penalize oil companies for excessive profit margins—the first law of its kind in the nation.

Newsom also championed laws requiring refineries to maintain minimum gasoline inventories, with daily fines of up to $1 million for noncompliance. At bill signings, he often stood behind podiums emblazoned with "Holding Big Oil Accountable."

Yet the political and economic landscape has changed. With the closure of two of California's major gasoline refineries, the state, which produces over 90 percent of its own gasoline, may soon need to increase fuel imports, raising the risk of supply disruptions due to geographic and logistical challenges.

Newsom acknowledged these risks, writing that "it is imperative that we continue to ensure a safe, affordable and reliable supply of transportation fuels over the next two decades," even as California moves toward its 2035 goal of banning new gas-powered vehicle sales.

But some Republicans say the governor's shift amounts to a quiet retreat.

"Looks like it took several refinery closures and some of the highest gas prices in the nation for him to realize the damage he's done," said GOP state Assemblymember James Gallagher.

What People Are Saying

Villaseñor, told Newsweek: "Just last month, the Governor directed the state to redouble efforts to work with refiners to ensure a safe, affordable and reliable supply of gasoline. We thank Senate Republicans for highlighting the Administration's work on this critical issue. Governor Newsom will keep fighting to protect Californians from price spikes at the pump."

Jones said: "If the Governor doesn't act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods. We're talking about gas prices over $8.43 per gallon by the end of next year.

"Let's be clear: Newsom owns this gas crisis. His policies have made it nearly impossible for California refineries to stay open. As Newsom eyes the White House, America should be watching closely: the crisis he created here could be the next national nightmare.

"We're not just losing gas. We're losing jobs, losing local economies, losing our grip on affordable living in California, and losing a critical layer of our national security."

De Haan, head of petroleum analysis with GasBuddy, told the San Francisco Chronicle: "It's going to mean more expensive gasoline for motorists, it's going to mean more expensive jet fuel for airlines, it's going to be more expensive for farmers and truckers."

What Happens Next

The Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles will close in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the Valero refinery in Benicia will close in 2026.

[thoughtlessarse]

Economic models have systematically underestimated how global heating will affect people’s wealth, according to a new study that finds 4C warming will make the average person 40% poorer – an almost four-fold increase on some estimates. The study by Australian scientists suggests average per person GDP across the globe will be reduced by 16% even if warming is kept to 2C above pre-industrial levels. This is a much greater reduction than previous estimates, which found the reduction would be 1.4%. Scientists now estimate global temperatures will rise by 2.1C even if countries hit short-term and long-term climate targets. Criticisms have mounted in recent years that a set of economic tools known as integrated assessment models (IAM) – used to guide how much governments should invest in cutting greenhouse gas emissions – have failed to capture major risks from climate change, particularly extreme weather events. The new study, in the journal Environmental Research Letters, took one of the most popular economic models and enhanced it with climate change forecasts to capture the impacts of extreme weather events across global supply chains. Dr Timothy Neal, of the University of New South Wales’s Institute for climate risk and response and the lead author of the study, said the new research had looked at the likely impact of global heating of 4C – seen by many climate experts as catastrophic for the planet – finding it would make the average person 40% poorer. This compared with about 11% poorer when using the models without enhancements.

continue reading

[asestimationsconsultants]

The Estimating Service Advantage | Why AS Estimation & Consultants Stand Out

In today’s fast-paced construction environment, precision and reliability are essential—especially when it comes to cost estimation. That’s where AS Estimation & Consultants excels. With a deep understanding of diverse construction sectors, from residential to industrial projects, the company has built a reputation for delivering dependable estimating service that clients can trust.

What sets AS Estimation & Consultants apart is their meticulous attention to detail, combined with advanced estimating software and real-world industry experience. They don’t just crunch numbers—they understand how each element of a project affects the final cost. This results in estimates that are not only accurate but also practical and aligned with project goals.

Moreover, AS Estimation & Consultants tailors their estimating service to each client’s needs. Whether you’re a builder bidding on a contract or a homeowner planning a renovation, they provide clear, itemized reports that support informed decision-making and better budget control.

If you’re looking for more than just numbers—if you want clarity, confidence, and a competitive edge—AS Estimation & Consultants is the partner you need. Their estimating service doesn’t just support your project; it strengthens your success from day one.

AS Estimation and Consultants

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[forecaststats]

Unlock Future Success with Industry Projections | Forecast Stats

With Forecast Stats, you can navigate the business landscape with precision and foresight to make informed decisions. We provide reliable forecasts to help you stay on top of the game and succeed.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from Inside Climate News:

Sunday marked the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, a six-month stretch in which warm ocean waters and moist atmospheric conditions create the ideal foundation for tropical cyclones to form. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts “above-average” activity, including six to 10 hurricanes. 

Each year, these climate-supercharged cyclones make headlines for causing mass levels of destruction, taking countless lives and costing billions of dollars. But it’s not just “the big ones” that are worsening as global temperatures warm. Research shows that more day-to-day weather events like thunderstorms, wildfires, droughts and hail are becoming more severe and, in some cases, more frequent.

In the insurance industry, these small- to mid-sized weather events are known as “secondary perils,” which are typically more localized and harder to predict than larger events. In recent years, these secondary perils have become a primary concern, a paradigm shift that could have broad implications for insurers and consumers alike. 

A Cumulative Problem: The threat of large natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes—primary perils—have long kept insurers awake at night. The market was fundamentally built around ensuring that insurance companies have enough capital to pay claims following a catastrophic event. That capital largely comes from the premiums that consumers pay and reinsurance plans (because even insurance companies need insurance). 

With primary perils in mind, insurance companies have developed complex risk models and cost analyses to help forecast losses they may face in one of these major events. Smaller weather events such as rainfall and hail storms also factor into companies’ equations, but have received less attention from governments, researchers and the insurance industry, according to reinsurance firm Swiss Re. 

That’s changing. Insurance and reinsurance firms have documented increasing losses coming from secondary peril events such as wildfires, thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes and moderate flooding. A recent report from financial analytics company S&P Global found that secondary perils now account for a larger share of global insured catastrophe losses than traditional peak events such as tropical cyclones and earthquakes. These findings echo reports from the world’s largest reinsurers, which have sounded the alarm about secondary perils in the face of climate change. 

“It’s the more common kind of weather patterns that we’ve had, the things we know—heavy rainstorms and things like that, but they’re becoming more severe and they’re changing,” Andrew Hoffman, a professor of sustainable enterprise at the University of Michigan, told me. He explained that insurance and reinsurance companies are now trying to figure out how to adjust premium rates or change coverage to account for this shift. 

That can mean higher prices even in areas that may not seem as risky, which I wrote about in April. For example, the U.S. Midwest is highly vulnerable to hailstorms, and research shows that hail may be getting larger and more damaging with climate change. According to reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, convective storms, including hail, cost insurers $58 billion last year—more than Hurricanes Helene and Milton combined, estimates suggest. 

“The insurance landscape is changing as the weather landscape changes,” Hoffman said. 

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Dusty Days Are Here Again for El Paso

Spring and early summer are generally dusty in the Borderplex region of the Chihuahuan Desert—a transnational area that spans parts of southern New Mexico, West Texas, and the Mexican state of Chihuahua. With the region gripped by exceptional drought, this has been especially true in 2025.

The latest in a string of storms lofted particles from dried lakes and other parched sources in northern Chihuahua and New Mexico and sent them streaming toward El Paso, Juárez, and Las Cruces. The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image on April 27, 2025. The event followed a large dust storm that hit the region a week earlier, as well as other major dust storms in early and mid-March.

Research indicates that March, April, and May are typically the most active months for airborne dust in El Paso. But the dust season so far this year has been “truly exceptional—one for the record books,” said Thomas Gill, an environmental scientist at the University of Texas at El Paso. For decades, Gill has used satellite observations and models to track dust activity around the planet and in the Borderplex region.

He said this latest event is the tenth “full-fledged dust storm” of the year in El Paso, meaning it was dusty enough to restrict visibility to less than half a mile. For comparison, the average is 1.8 storms per year. “You would have to go back to 1936—during the Dust Bowl—to find a year with more,” Gill said. During the Dust Bowl years of 1935 and 1936, El Paso had 13 and 11 dust storms, respectively.

Unusual drought and windy conditions are fueling the surge in dust. “We’re in the worst drought we’ve seen in at least a decade, and this March was the windiest we’ve seen in more than 50 years,” Gill added.

Research shows dust storms can pose considerable hazards. In a 2023 analysis, Gill and several colleagues pointed out that the dangers of dust are often underappreciated. They contribute to deadly traffic accidents and elevate the risk of cardiorespiratory problems that lead to emergency room visits.

Dust may also help spread a fungal infection called Valley Fever, though the precise role of dust storms remains a topic of ongoing research and debate. In another analysis, Gill and colleagues estimated that dust storms cause more than $150 billion in economic damage each year, with farmers, the health care sector, the renewable energy industry, and households bearing large costs.

Several tools powered by NASA data and satellites are available to meteorologists, scientists, and others tracking dust storms. The Worldview browser hosts timely data and imagery from several satellites, and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has tools for real-time weather analysis and reanalysis.

Gill collaborates frequently with a NASA-sponsored health and air quality team led by George Mason University’s Daniel Tong. That team is working to develop better ways of forecasting and analyzing how dust storms can affect air quality. Researchers with NASA’s SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition) project have also developed a new technique that uses machine learning to improve the tracking of dust plumes at night.

“It should be interesting to see how far the dust from this event travels,” noted Santiago Gasso, a University of Maryland atmospheric scientist based at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “Some of it could be headed to the Great Lakes, New England, and maybe even to Greenland, as happened after one of the storms in March.”

Up to this point in the 2025 season, the Borderplex region has seen 28 days with dust. Over the past quarter century, the average for an entire year is 22 days. “We still have several more weeks of the dust season to go,” added Gill, noting that forecasters are warning of more dust as early as this weekend.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Wanmei Liang, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Tariffs

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

April 2, 2025 (Wednesday)

Heather Cox Richardson

Apr 03, 2025

Just five months ago, on October 19, 2024, The Economist ran a special report on America’s economy. That economy was, the magazine said, “the envy of the world.” Today, stock market futures plummeted after President Donald J. Trump announced that he will impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, with higher rates on about 60 countries he claims engage in unfair trade practices, including China, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea, as well as the European Union.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost more than 1,000 points upon the news, falling by 2.5%; the S&P 500 dropped 3.6%.

Trump’s erratic approach to the economy had already rattled markets, which dropped significantly in the first quarter of this year, and consumer confidence, which recently hit a twelve-year low. Trump waited until the stock market had closed today before he announced the new tariffs. Then, in a speech in the White House Rose Garden, he said: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. But it is not going to happen anymore.” Instead, he said, tariffs would create “the golden age of America.”

“Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much,” former treasury secretary Lawrence Summers posted. “The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now [close] to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.” “The Trump Tariff Tax is the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history,” posted former vice president Mike Pence.

Trump claims he is imposing “reciprocal tariffs” and says they are about half of what other countries levy on U.S. goods. In fact, the numbers he is using for his claim that other countries are imposing high tariffs on U.S. goods are bonkers. Economist Paul Krugman points out that the European Union places tariffs of less than 3% on average on U.S. goods, while Trump maintained its tariffs are 39%.

Krugman said he had no idea where that number had come from, but financial journalist James Surowiecki figured out that the White House “just took our trade deficit with [each] country and divided it by the country’s exports to us.” He called it “extraordinary nonsense.” Washington Post economic writer Catherine Rampell posted that she was reluctant to amplify Surowiecki’s theory that the tariff rates were based on such a “dumb calculation,” but then the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative confirmed it.

Certain observers in business had apparently persuaded themselves that Trump didn’t really intend to raise tariffs very much and that his many vows to do so were simply rhetoric, since economists agree that tariffs are a tax on consumers and will raise inflation and slow down growth. Today’s tariffs are higher than expected, and business leaders are alarmed.

JPMorgan tonight said that they “view the full implementation of these policies as a substantial macro economic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts” and that “these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and global economy into recession this year.”

Economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations agreed. He told David J. Lynch and Jeff Stein of the Washington Post: “In the short run, the effect is probably a recession. It’s going to raise the price of so many goods that can’t be made in the United States…. In the long run, it’s a vision of the U.S. that is very isolated from the world.”

But not from every other country. While Trump imposed tariffs on Australia’s remote Heard and McDonald Islands, which are uninhabited except by wildlife like seals and penguins, it did not put tariffs on Russia. A different financial shift lifted sanctions against senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, to permit him to travel to Washington, D.C., today to meet with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff for what Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler, and Alayna Treene of CNN refer to as “talks on strengthening relations between the two countries as they seek to end the war in Ukraine.”

Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) noted tonight that the tariffs make no economic sense because “[t]hey aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.” Murphy suggests they are a way to make private industry dependent on the president the same way he has tried to make law firms and universities dependent on him. Industries and companies “will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.”

Murphy warns that “[t]he tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship…[s]o that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.”

There is also Trump’s apparent fascination with President William McKinley, who held office from 1897 to 1901, at a time when high tariffs concentrated wealth in the hands of industrialists while workers and farmers, as well as their families, faced injury, hunger, and homelessness from dangerous working conditions, low wages and commodity prices, and seasonal factory closings.

Trump has frequently claimed those years were the nation’s wealthiest, and today he helped to explain his focus on that era when he referred to the 1913 Revenue Act, a law that has angered the right wing for decades. That act began the process of replacing the high tariffs of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries with an income tax, thus shifting the burden of funding the treasury from ordinary Americans through tariffs to wealthier Americans through the income tax. At least some of Trump’s tariff plans seem tied to his enthusiasm for tax cuts on wealthy individuals and corporations.

But in trying to reestablish the financial patterns of the late nineteenth century—patterns that led to profound economic instability in the U.S., including economic crashes—Trump is undermining the system of global trade that has fostered international cooperation since World War II. CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar told CNN’s John Vause: “This is Trump saying…I am going to overturn globalization as we’ve known it.” She added: “I’m hoping it doesn’t push the U.S. and the world into recession.”

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo makes the important point that “Presidents have no inherent power over tariffs whatsoever.” The Constitution gives to Congress, not the president, the power to impose tariffs. But the International Emergency Economic Powers Act allows the president to impose tariffs if he declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, which Trump did today, declaring a “national emergency to increase our competitive edge, protect our sovereignty, and strengthen our national and economic security.”

That same law allows Congress to end such a declaration of emergency, but so far, Republicans have declined to do so. Today the Senate rebuked Trump by passing a resolution to block his tariffs on Canadian products, with four Republicans—Susan Collins (ME), Mitch McConnell (KY), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Rand Paul (KY)—joining Democrats to pass the resolution. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is unlikely to take the measure up.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[dypatilnavimumbai]

Why Actuarial Science Is One of the Most In-Demand Careers in Finance

In today’s world of financial uncertainty, rising risks, and complex markets, businesses are constantly searching for professionals who can help them manage risk, forecast outcomes, and make informed decisions. This is where actuaries come in. Actuarial Science is one of the fastest-growing and most respected careers in finance.

If you enjoy mathematics, statistics, and analytical problem-solving, and are considering a career in finance, then a B.Sc in Actuarial Science might be the perfect path for you. Here's why this field is gaining so much popularity and why students are actively looking for the best B.Sc Actuarial Science colleges in India.

What is Actuarial Science?

Actuarial Science is a discipline that applies mathematics, probability, statistics, and financial theory to study uncertain future events, particularly in the areas of insurance, pensions, finance, and investments.

Actuaries use data to estimate the financial impact of risk and help organisations plan for the future. They assess everything from life insurance premiums to investment strategies and corporate risk management.

Why demand for actuaries is rising

Increasing need for risk management

In today's financial environment, companies face risks from market changes, natural disasters, economic shifts, and even pandemics. Actuaries help businesses prepare for such risks by offering data-driven strategies.

Growing insurance and finance sectors

With the rise of health insurance, life insurance, and pension plans in India, there is a growing demand for professionals who can manage large data sets and calculate risk accurately. Actuarial Science plays a key role in these areas.

A global shortage of professionals

Actuaries are in short supply not just in India but around the world. This makes qualified professionals highly sought after in countries like the United States, the UK, Canada, and Australia.

Benefits of choosing actuarial science as a career

High earning potential: Actuaries are among the best-paid professionals in finance. Salaries rise significantly with experience and certifications.

Job security: The field is highly specialised, making actuaries valuable to companies.

Diverse industry options: You can work in insurance, banking, consulting, government, healthcare, and investment firms.

Global recognition: Actuarial qualifications are accepted worldwide, offering great international mobility.

Challenging and rewarding work: Every day brings new problems to solve, making the work intellectually stimulating and meaningful.

Skills you will develop during your degree

A B.Sc in Actuarial Science equips students with both technical and practical skills, including:

Mathematical modelling and statistical analysis

Risk assessment and financial planning

Business forecasting and trend analysis

Use of software tools such as Excel, R, and Python

Understanding of insurance products and investment strategies

These skills prepare students for actuarial exams and roles in the real world.

Importance of choosing the right college

To succeed in this career, it is important to study at one of the leading B.Sc Actuarial Science colleges in India. A good college will offer:

Strong academic curriculum aligned with actuarial bodies like IAI or IFoA

Faculty with real-world experience

Support for actuarial exam preparation

Internship and placement opportunities

Access to actuarial software and data analytics tools

Choosing the right institution ensures that students receive the guidance and exposure needed to launch a successful career.

Why DY Patil University is a smart choice

If you are planning to pursue a B.Sc in Actuarial Science, DY Patil University, Navi Mumbai, offers a well-structured program that prepares students for the actuarial profession with a balance of academic learning and practical experience.

Highlights include:

Faculty with industry and academic expertise

Training for actuarial certification exams

Guest lectures by finance and insurance professionals

Internship support and placement guidance

Access to the latest financial and statistical tools

DY Patil University provides students with the environment and support needed to build a strong career in one of the most respected and rewarding fields in finance.

Final thoughts

Actuarial Science is not just about numbers. It is about making decisions that shape the future of businesses, families, and economies. As industries grow more data-driven and risk-aware, the need for skilled actuaries continues to rise.

If you are looking for a career that is analytical, impactful, and globally relevant, then studying at one of the top B.Sc Actuarial Science colleges in India like DY Patil University, Navi Mumbai, could be your perfect first step.