#forecasting accuracy

[404-found]

Prophecy, Crystal Ball or Clever Spin?

One of the biggest skeptic barbs is this, “Prophecies were written after the fact, so it’s all clever hindsight.” Seriously? Tell that to the dusty scrolls and fulfilled forecasts that nail history before it happens. “Surely the Lord GOD does nothing without revealing His secret to His servants the prophets.”— Amos 3:7 Let’s test the accuracy. Micah’s Bethlehem Bullseye.Written…

[asestimationsconsultants]

Uncovering Hidden Costs with a Construction Cost Estimating Service

Construction projects often face unexpected expenses that can disrupt budgets and timelines. These hidden costs may arise from overlooked details, unforeseen site conditions, or changes in project scope. Identifying and accounting for such costs early is crucial for effective financial management. A construction cost estimating service plays an essential role in uncovering hidden costs, enabling project teams to create realistic budgets and avoid costly surprises.

Common Sources of Hidden Costs

Hidden costs in construction can originate from various areas, including:

Site conditions that differ from initial surveys

Design changes or scope creep during construction

Delays caused by weather, permitting, or labor shortages

Price fluctuations in materials or labor

Unexpected regulatory compliance requirements

Coordination and communication breakdowns among contractors

These factors can inflate project costs if not anticipated and managed properly.

Challenges in Detecting Hidden Costs

Incomplete Initial Data

Insufficient site investigations or surveys lead to surprises

Lack of detailed design documentation

Inadequate Risk Assessment

Failure to identify project-specific risks early on

Underestimating the likelihood or impact of certain events

Poor Change Management

Untracked scope changes causing budget increases

Ineffective communication among stakeholders

Market Volatility

Sudden price increases for materials or labor

Supply chain disruptions affecting availability and cost

How a Construction Cost Estimating Service Helps

Cost estimators use comprehensive techniques to identify potential hidden costs, such as:

Thorough site and design reviews to detect overlooked factors

Risk analysis incorporating probability and impact assessments

Detailed allowance and contingency budgeting

Market research to anticipate price trends and supply risks

Structured change management and cost tracking processes

Techniques to Reveal Hidden Costs

Value Engineering: Examining design alternatives to reduce costs without compromising quality.

Scenario Modeling: Testing “what-if” situations to evaluate cost impacts of delays or design changes.

Historical Data Analysis: Using past project data to identify common hidden cost drivers.

Supplier and Subcontractor Input: Engaging experts to uncover overlooked expenses.

Benefits of Addressing Hidden Costs Early

More accurate and reliable budgets

Increased ability to secure financing with confidence

Reduced risk of project delays and disputes

Improved stakeholder trust through transparency

Better decision-making under changing conditions

Conclusion

Hidden costs are an inevitable challenge in construction, but they don’t have to derail projects. A construction cost estimating service provides the expertise and processes needed to uncover and quantify these costs early. This proactive approach helps project teams manage financial risks, maintain control over budgets, and achieve successful outcomes.

[littlebellesmama]

What Is a Bad Debt Reserve and Why It Matters for Businesses

In the world of business, not every sale turns into cash. As much as we’d like to believe that every customer will pay on time, or at all, reality often proves otherwise. This is where the concept of the bad debt reserve comes into play. It’s a critical accounting practice that many companies use, but it often flies under the radar until it’s too late. If you run a business or are getting into…

[aconsultancyblogs]

Growth-Focused Businesses Turn to F&A Outsourcing for FP&A Efficiency

The complexity of today’s business environment has made finance and accounting outsourcing a critical enabler of modern budgeting and forecasting practices. Companies rely on outsourcing to bring accuracy, speed, and strategic focus to financial operations.

Specialized budgeting services offered by outsourcing providers help businesses establish realistic and data-driven budgets. These services leverage historical data, market trends, and business objectives to ensure aligned planning.

Forecasting has also been revolutionized by outsourcing. Improved forecasting accuracy means businesses can anticipate market shifts, prepare for uncertainties, and make proactive decisions.

FP&A automation is another key benefit. Outsourced teams often use cutting-edge financial software to automate data collection, reporting, and analysis, saving time and reducing manual errors.

Strengthening financial control is essential for long-term success. Outsourced FP&A teams bring governance and structure, ensuring that budgeting and forecasting processes are compliant and strategically aligned.

By adopting finance and accounting outsourcing, companies can modernize their budgeting and forecasting processes, improving efficiency and achieving stronger financial outcomes.

[cloud9technologies2]

Benefits of Implementing ERP Software for Engineering Firms

The engineering industry is one of the biggest industries in the world, and it plays an important role in growing the economy as well. The engineering sector is growing day by day and is highly competitive. Hence, efficiency, accuracy, and streamlined operations are crucial for success in this sector. Businesses face several challenges in this sector, like the complexities of a project, resource management, and deadline restrictions. ERP software for engineering firms is the best way to overcome all of these challenges as it integrates and automates business processes.

Here is the list of top benefits of utilizing ERP systems for the engineering industry:

1. Project Management:

The projects in engineering sectors have a detailed documentation process, different teams, and complicated workflows. ERP system for engineering firms help in various ways, like centralizing project data, enabling limitless collaboration, and getting real-time updates. Because of this software, every team member has all the updates, which in turn reduces miscommunication and delays in the project.

2. Resource Management:

For all engineering projects, it is essential to allocate all resources carefully, like equipment, materials, and labor. With the utilization of ERP software, the monitoring of resources can be performed easily. It helps in checking resource availability, optimizing usage, and forecasting requirements. This ultimately results in improving cost efficiency.

3. Quality Management:

Ensures engineering projects meet industry standards and regulations.

Quality Control: Offers tools for monitoring and managing the quality of materials, processes, and completed projects.

4. Data Management:

Using ERP software, engineering firms can make sure that they can get a unified database to eliminate data silos and ensure consistency through all departments. A centralized data management system is beneficial for decision-making as well it provides critical information when required.

5. Time and Budget Management:

When the whole system gets automated with ERP software, it reduces time and cost on repetitive tasks like data entry, procurement, and inventory management. The utilization of ERP systems in engineering firms helps in reducing manual errors and improving productivity. Hence, the firms can focus on other important things like innovation and project execution.

6. Client Relationship Management:

Most ERP systems include customer relationship management tools that are very helpful in managing client interactions. This tool allows the firm to track communication history, project milestones, and client preferences. Because of this feature, firms can improve customer satisfaction and build long-term relationships.

7. Scalability and Flexibility

ERP solutions may scale with the company as it grows, allowing for more projects, clients, and resources. Customization: ERP solutions can typically be tailored to an engineering firm’s specific demands and operations.

8. Financial Management

Accounting combines financial accounting with project management to provide a complete picture of the company’s financial health. Reporting: Creates detailed financial reports, such as profit and loss statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements.

How PMTRACK ERP Helps:

Managing development processes, monitoring complex projects, and ensuring seamless collaboration across divisions are becoming increasingly important for company success. Engineering organizations in Pune, India, and around the world have distinct issues in successfully managing their operations.

Implementing a bespoke Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solution provides transformative benefits by streamlining processes, improving project management, and ultimately generating profitability.

For businesses considering ERP adoption, selecting the correct ERP software vendor is critical. PMTRACK ERP, a reputable ERP solution provider in Pune, India, specializes in engineering ERP systems tailored to the demands of engineering and manufacturing companies.

ERP software is used to connect project management with financial accounting, inventory control, and procurement procedures. This integration gives project managers real-time information about project costs, resource availability, and schedules, resulting in better-informed decisions and more effective project execution.

Engineering firms that use an ERP system can improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, improve project delivery, and ultimately boost client satisfaction and profitability.

Summary:

ERP software provides several advantages to engineering firms in Pune, India, ranging from better project management and financial control to higher client satisfaction and scalability. Engineering organizations can employ a comprehensive ERP solution to improve operations, decrease inefficiencies, and drive long-term growth.

PMTRACK ERP, one of the leading ERP solution providers in Pune, India, provides comprehensive, industry-specific ERP solutions that are suitable for engineering organizations’ unique requirements. Firms that collaborate with an experienced engineering ERP software company in India receive a trusted partner in negotiating the complexity of their business, setting them up for success in an increasingly competitive landscape.

[ibntechnologies]

Forecasting cash flow is the act of predicting the inflow and outflow of money of a business over a specified time period. By anticipating future cash positions, avoiding crippling cash shortages, and maximizing returns on any cash surpluses they may have, companies benefit from an accurate cash flow forecast.

[rlewisphilly]

You see this weather forecast?

National Weather Person’s Day (2/5) A day to salute the people we sometimes love, many times curse. By the way, success rate data shows their 7-day forecast is accurate about 80% of the time; 10 days or longer is about a 50-50 chance. (yes really) So cut your fav forecaster a break today.These folks take their job very cirrusly. ;0)

[vibeswithdivs]

you don’t mess around - OP81

If you had to describe your job in three words, they’d be: pressure, precision, and absolutely no room for mistakes.

You managed the money that kept McLaren running. Not in the sense of counting coins in a dusty room — no, you lived in digital dashboards and currency exposure spreadsheets. On any given day, you could tell someone how much was in the Swiss account, how the yen was affecting the Singapore deal, and whether a facility payment was going to clear before a supplier had a panic attack.

The job was about timing. Liquidity. Predicting the unpredictable and safeguarding the team’s future — all while juggling numbers with razor-sharp accuracy.

Which is why when a race car driver wandered into your high-stakes, number-heavy corner of the building on a calm Wednesday morning, you stared at him like he’d stepped into a Bond film by mistake.

He paused just inside the glass doors — tall, hoodie-clad, faintly windblown from the chilly British air outside — and looked around with a furrowed brow.

Definitely lost.

Your colleagues peeked over their screens, some wide-eyed, others frozen mid-email. In this room, the loudest thing was usually someone’s keyboard when they were panicking before a deadline.

You were about to go back to calculating rolling cash positions when he spotted you.

He smiled.

It wasn’t a polite PR-smile. It was curious. Warm. Maybe a little amused.

“This definitely isn’t Aerodynamics,” he said, glancing around.

You took your hand off your mouse and leaned back slightly in your chair. “Unless they’ve suddenly decided to start hedging foreign currency risk, no — you’re a few wrong turns deep.”

He took a cautious step in. “It’s… quiet in here.”

You tilted your head. “Not when the dollar drops half a percent during a five-million-pound contract negotiation.”

He grinned at that. “Sounds intense.”

You offered a thin smile. “That’s one word for it.”

There was a beat. Then he added, “I’m supposed to be meeting Zak, but I think I took a wrong left somewhere between partnerships and… whatever room had seventeen monitors and no windows.”

You stood, brushing off your skirt. “You’re about four corridors off course and six floors deep into stress.”

He looked around. “Well, if I’m going to get lost, at least I ended up somewhere interesting.”

You blinked at him. “You’re the first person to say that about this room. Ever.”

He gave a half-grin, toeing one foot on the floor like he was trying to kill time. “So what do you actually do in here?”

You pointed to your screen, where a live dashboard showed inflows, outflows, and forecasts across multiple international entities. “See that? That’s how much is available in five different currencies to fund race weekend logistics without breaking any laws or overdraft limits.”

Oscar leaned slightly forward, genuinely intrigued. “And you just… know how to do that?”

“I know how to make sure no one gets a call from legal,” you said, turning your gaze back to him. “Including you.”

He laughed, a genuine, caught-off-guard sound. “Wow. You guys are the quiet enforcers.”

“Quiet, precise, and very well-documented,” you replied smoothly. “We don’t leave fingerprints — just audit trails.”

That earned a low whistle. “You don’t mess around.”

“No, but people sometimes think we do — right up until they want to order a new hospitality suite and we say, ‘not unless you want to explain that to Finance.’”

He looked impressed. “Duly noted.”

Another colleague passed behind you, giving Oscar a side-eye like he was a Martian. You cleared your throat and took a step forward, suddenly feeling aware of just how much of the room was pretending not to eavesdrop.

“You’re Oscar,” you said, a little more grounded now.

“And you are…?”

“Y/N,” you replied. “I work in… let’s call it future-proofing.”

That made him pause. “I like that.”

“It sounds less terrifying than ‘I manage the operational cash forecasts for a multimillion-pound motorsport empire,’” you added with a wink.

He smirked. “A motorsport empire, huh?”

“You guys play chess with tires. I play chess with the economy.”

He laughed again, and the sound of it — relaxed, amused, intrigued — felt like a weird sort of reward after a morning spent reviewing intercompany transfers.

“You actually like this stuff?” he asked, pointing at your screen.

You tilted your head. “You like driving into a corner at 200kph hoping your grip calculations are right?”

“…Fair.”

At that moment, a harried admin appeared behind him. “Oscar! There you are — Zak’s been waiting—”

Oscar turned slightly but didn’t move. “Got a little sidetracked.”

The admin blinked at you, surprised. You offered a tight-lipped smile and a “don’t you dare start” eyebrow raise before turning back to him.

“Back to the track?” you asked lightly.

“Back to pretending I know what my engineer is talking about.”

You smiled, unexpectedly. “Fake it till you podium.”

He chuckled. “Hey, Y/N?”

You raised a brow.

“I’m glad I got lost,” he said. “Most detours don’t come with financial sass and a global cash position overview.”

“Flirting with the girl who can freeze team spending is bold,” you replied, smirking.

He shrugged, taking a few steps toward the door. “I’ve raced in Monaco. I like high-risk strategies.”

Before leaving, he turned back over his shoulder, grin softening into something more sincere. “I’ll come back. But next time, I’ll bring coffee. You seem like you don’t take sugar, but I’ll gamble.”

You blinked, not used to someone reading you that quickly.

“…Black. No sugar,” you said after a beat.

He pointed, victorious. “Knew it.”

And with that, he slipped out of the room — leaving behind a trail of confusion, amusement, and a string of open-mouthed stares from your colleagues.

You sat down, turned back to your screen, and tried — very unsuccessfully — to remember what currency hedge you were working on.

But all your brain could supply was: He got your coffee order right.

And maybe… just maybe… some risks were worth taking.

[pineconepie]

hihi! could you write vincent and reader shenanigans for christmas or the holidays in general?

This is probably the most wholesome thing I've written XD

"Dad, it's snowing!" You shake Vincent awake, jumping up and down on the bed excitedly. You had woken up to see the world covered in white, ice sticking to the windows, flakes fluttering down to the ground. "Wake uuuuup."

The man groans softly, reaching over to you and pulling you into bed with him, chuckling under his breath when you whine. "Mmm, shhh... sleepy time, munchkin." His voice comes out hoarse and scratchy from sleep.

"But Dad—" you begin to say, but stop short when he rolls on top of you. You gasp, struggling to push him off of you, laughing despite your best efforts. "Daaaaaaad. You're heavy!"

"Maybe you're just weak," he teases, yawning. His eyes slowly open as he shifts so that he isn't crushing you anymore, holding you against his chest tightly instead. "Alright, alright... I'm getting up..." He kisses your forehead and ruffles your hair before sliding out of the bed. Vincent stretches for a second, groaning as his bones crack, then looks out the window, watching the snow falling silently. "Huh... so it is. Guess the forecast was right."

"Can I go outside and play in it?" you ask, tilting your head up at him. "Please?"

"Nuh-uh. It's too early, (Y/n)," he replies. "Let me wake up a little more first before you start running around like crazy." He shakes his head fondly as he slips on a robe. "I guess a cozy breakfast is in order."

"Can I eat breakfast after I play in the snow?" you beg. "I promise I'll come back when you say."

Vincent gives you a stern look. "You need energy to run around in the snow," he explains patiently, yet firmly. "No playing without eating something beforehand."

He lumbers to the kitchen, still tired, and with you trailing behind. Once inside, you climb up onto one of the stools lining the counter, watching him work around the kitchen. Vincent puts two slices of bread in the toaster, setting them to toast, grabbing various ingredients out of the fridge.

The man glances at you when he realizes you're staring at him intently. He grins. "Whatcha thinking about, kiddo?"

"How I'm going to win a snowball fight against you," you answer without missing a beat.

Vincent chuckles. "I've got an impressive amount of upper body strength and accuracy, sweetheart. If you really want to win, you need a strategy—which for the record, I'm an expert at strategy, too. You are... what do the kids like to say now? Cooked?" He grabs a bottle of orange juice and pours it into a cup, pushing it towards you.

"Everyone has a weakness," you respond. "I'll find yours."

He smirks. "Good luck."

Breakfast is eaten quietly. You eat all your food (otherwise Vincent gives you his Disapproving Dad Face) before gulping down your juice, waiting impatiently for Vincent to finish as well. Once he does, you rush off to get ready—shoes, scarf, hat, gloves, jacket—all so you could go play in the snow outside. Vincent follows suit, taking his time to slip on boots and a large coat.

The two of you walk into the elevator and descend down the building together, walking side by side out into the courtyard area of the complex. Already you see a few others having snowball fights, making snowmen and such. You smile brightly and drag Vincent further into the snow, marveling at everything.

Before you know it, you're kneeling down and building your own little fort for defense purposes. You look up, to see him simply watching. "Aren't you gonna start with yours?"

"Who says I need a fort, silly? You forget who I am." Vincent grins mischievously, already getting getting his snowballs prepared.

You're already aiming, throwing the first hit to his shoulder. He laughs, and suddenly the battle ensues.

Both of you are cackling like mad men while the cold hits your skin and the wind picks up speed around you both. As the sun rises higher into the sky above your heads, the air becomes colder yet still somehow refreshing and crisp; perfect weather to enjoy this particular activity.

Even though Vincent is winning, you can tell he's going easy on you. You're sure if he was using all of his strength, you'd probably be dead. But he never throws harder than he needs to, or faster than necessary either; rather opting to maintain a consistent pace throughout the whole ordeal. Every once in a while he'll stop just long enough to allow you a brief reprieve before restarting again.

Through it, you think back to his weaknesses. He doesn't have any that you know of.

Except...

You hide behind your wall of defense and stash a ton of snowballs together, prepped for attack.

"Dad!" you cry out dramatically.

You don't need to say anything else for Vincent to run straight to you, out of his defense and forgetting about his snowballs. Immediately he wraps his arms around you, lifting you into his chest, looking into your eyes. "Baby, what's wrong?!" He hugs you tightly. "What happened? Are you hurt?"

Your heart twists from guilt, but you decide to go for it. The element of surprise would be ruined otherwise.

"My hand..." you whine. Just when he looks at your hand, you grab the snowballs and chuck them at him, cackling like a true cartoon villain.

"I won, I won!"

Vincent is surprised at first, blinking from how his face is now wet and full of snow. Then he laughs with you, ruffling your hair. "You little brat!" You raise another snowball threateningly, to which he laughs again, holding up his arms in a gesture of peace. "Okay! Okay, you win! You found my weakness! But for the record, I think that's what some would consider cheating."

"I didn't claim I was hurt or in trouble or whatever," you reason. "All I said was 'Dad.'" To make up for it, you brush some snow from his shoulders with your gloved hands.

He pretends to be offended. "Sneaky. Were you always evil, or did my own influence corrupt you?"

"I guess I learned from the best," you chuckle. Your hands instinctively grip his sleeves tighter. "Since I won, you owe me something! I don't know what yet, but I'll think about it!"

"I've created a monster," Vincent sighs dramatically. "Come on, you can think about what you want when we warm up inside. Its starting to get pretty chilly out here."

"It is," you agree, shivering. Despite wearing layers, the chill still reaches you, even seeping through your socks.

When you get inside and change out of your cold, wet clothes, Vincent starts the fireplace in the living room, grabbing hot chocolate packets from the cupboard. He uses the kettle on the stove to boil water and carefully makes two cups - one for him, and one for you, filled to the brim with marshmallows and whip cream. Then he plops down beside you, browsing through all the movies to fit the theme for the holidays.

"What's your favorite festive movie from all of these?" he asks, scrolling through the options.

"It's hard to choose," you answer. "What about yours?"

"Die Hard, of course."

"That's not—"

"Don't ruin my joy and whimsy," Vincent playfully scolds. "Not like I'd let you watch it anyway. Rated R films would destroy your precious mind."

You roll your eyes. "Am I not sitting in the same room with a guy that kills people for a living?"

"What did I just say about my joy and whimsy?" He snickers at your expression. "Anyway, a more age-appropriate answer would be The Muppet Christmas Carol. That was probably my favorite as a kid."

"Woah, didn't know movies existed in the prehistoric ages."

"Just for that remark, I'm picking what we watch."

[going-to-ikea-for-the-fries]

Ghostbuster. || kidnapper!Simon "Ghost" Riley

[ FIC MASTERLIST ] || [ CHAPTER 2 -> ]

Rating: M + Dark Fic + DDNE Words: 4.2k~ Pairing: Serial Killer!Reader x Serial Kidnapper!Ghost CW: DEAD DOVE DO NOT EAT, dark fic, serial killing, serial kidnapping, torture, body disposal, death, murder (purposeful), murder (accidental), mentions of rape? (neither Simon nor reader rapes anyone!!!!!), blood, knife/weapons, gross abandoned buildings, police verbage. tags: dark fic, serial killer AU, no smut (for now), OOC Simon, you/your pronouns, afab!reader, reader & simon terrorizing the city of Manchester, Manchester geography/accuracy?. a/n: fully inspired by the post below, by @moongreenlight ; also fully a gift for @superhero-landing

"This marks the 7th body found in the Greater Manchester area in the last 6 months."

It's dark outside. Eerily so. Probably because, although the moon is high in the sky, full and bright, plenty of clouds hide it from view. The weather forecast speaks of heavy rains for the next few weeks, but you got lucky... It's not currently raining. It leaves the night feeling weirdly still and quiet, the roads long empty after people retreated into their homes after work.

But not you. Never you.

You turn your head to peer at the old box TV in the room over your shoulder, your eyes narrowed in on the screen where the news anchor talks about the police investigation at hand.

"The victim, a 24-year-old university student, residing in Wythenshawe, had been reported missing last month, on the 18th, after having not come home after a nightout with friends."

The old shop is dark too, barely illuminated by a camping lantern you've brought inside when you first broke in. The air is stale, almost unbreathable from all the dust; the floor, and counters caked in a layer of dried particles, courtesy of the decades' long abandonment the shop has suffered, as well as the ceiling panels having come loose, knocking down concrete dust all over the shop.

Shaking your head, you carefully click your tongue in displeasure, while you clean the tool in your hand with a rag, keeping your eyes and ears still honed into the broadcast. "Poor thing." You comment to yourself.

Your head slumps forward to reach your arm, and you rub the underside of your nose with the back of your hand and forearm, sniffling a bit to clean some of the snot dribbling down your nostrils due to the overly dusty air.

"The Great Manchester Police HQ has issued a warning on the brutality of the recent string of murders and their commitment to find the people responsible. The Police Chief urges that anyone who might have any information to please come forth."

Sighing, you turn your head away again, as the news anchor drones on about the funeral for the young girl who was just found. You step away toward the array of tools displayed, for your convenience, on one of the old counters, laid neatly across a black tool roll bag and carefully set the knife atop it.

The shop smells. It's not entirely unpleasant, but you've gotten used to it either way. You're pretty sure if you weren't, it'd smell horrendous, like it did in the beginning. Stale, dusty air, old blood caked into the gashes and knife cuts on the wooden countertops, tools that were abandoned and grew colonies of bacteria after enough time went past, old vent systems that haven't been cleaned, meat display cases that didn't get disinfected before the butcher shop went out of business.

Tossing the rag aside, atop the butcher's block countertop, you run a finger over the wristband of your black cooking gloves, the latex feeling sticky and damp due to the fresh blood caked onto it. Turning on your heel, you return to the center of the room and look down at the body slumped on the chair before you.

"That guy is a fucking sicko, isn't he?" You complain and crouch before the man tied to the chair, raising his bruised and bloodied face by gripping him around the chin.

The man before you looks like the rest of them, balding and with a 5-o'clock shadow of a beard. He was greying as well, as most of them tend to be. Old, perverted bastards... He's slowly paling before your eyes, the blood slipping down his abdomen, soaking through his clothes and flowing onto the drain below his rickety chair.

"You know, you've gotta be a particularly... Nasty bastard to kill women that young... To bathe and redress them post-mortem..." You trail off. The man before you doesn't reply. He looks groggy and languid, blinking irregularly, and his chest heaving. Barely aware of anything as his life, much like his blood, drains from him.

It's almost poetic to watch his blood stain the white tile of the backroom of the shop, the walls lined with racks and hooks meant to, in the past, hang carcasses from... Almost like this old cooler room is finally fulfilling its role again, to cool and drain a dead body of its blood, all of it flowing down the incline toward the drain...

"I believe I saw in a few Criminal Minds episodes that those types that... clean them afterward feel 'regret' for what they did." You shake your head and kiss your teeth in annoyance.

"They feel regret after it's done, but not while they do it. 'es it mean they gain a conscience after the fact?" You ask him. "Monsters, the lot of them..." You chide and scoff, letting go of the man's face.

Then, you smirk as you notice his breathing get shallower, his head going a bit more limp, hanging low, his chin pressing over to his chest. Leaning forward, you bring your mouth close to his ear, your lips almost grazing his ear. "Don't worry, I won't clean you up once I'm done."

-

Sitting in your dark bedroom, you lounge back lazily on your desk chair, chewing some bubblegum and tapping away at your mouse before scrolling down a forum page.

The room, much like the rest of your flat is dark, only illuminated by the bright blue-toned light emanating from your computer screen, even in dark mode.

The best part of the internet age is the fact people share, comment and gossip about everything. It makes your research so much easier. Though, you suppose it's human nature... to be curious and gossipy. Social creatures and such.

Clicking on one of the posts on the subreddit r/ManchesterCrime, you skim through the post, where the OP is mentioning how they live nearby to the location where the new body was dumped: the southside of Manley Park.

Grabbing your pink fuzzy-top pen and a couple of highlighter markers, you get up from your desk chair and lean over your desk to the corkboard hanging behind it.

You take your writing materials to the printed map of the Greater Manchester area which you had pinned to the cork slab, tracing the information you have so far:

Resident of Wythenshawe.

Captured somewhere between The Three Pigeons and home.

Dumped in Manley Park.

You set down your pens and grab some pink wool string and a couple more pins, using them to rig up a new line to connect the dots over the map.

Taking a step back, you look up at the map and sighed, shaking your head, feeling anger flowing through your veins.

You have been trying to figure out the killer's area of operation for months... Trying to triangulate it, find a pattern...

But nothing.

No convergence point for the lines; no silly little connect-the-dots shape being formed; no secret message being shared... Or maybe there is and you just suck at reading it.

So far, all you have is 7 pieces of string of different colors... 7 victims. All over Manchester, with no overlay.

Just... 7 young girls taken for weeks at a time, killed and then dumped like rubbish.

Has he been taking them to different secondary locations all over the city before slaughtering them?

Has he been driving about, passing by schools and homes and banks and shops, on his way to the dump sites... with a body in his car?

Allegedly, they were all bathed and redressed, with no signs of sexual trauma or abuse, other than a stark loss of weight and some rope burn around the wrists and ankles...

But who really knows?

You are no PI or constable, just a sleuth. Whatever information you have, you got from the internet and from the news... You have no way to be sure of anything.

It angers you to imagine what he had been doing to those poor girls while keeping them to himself.

The poor, terrified girls... someone's sister, someone's daughter, someone's girlfriend, someone's friend... And he had been plucking them from their mundane, safe lives and murdering them?

Throwing yourself back down onto your chair, you stack your fingers together, elbows on the armrests, and swiveled side to side as you looked at the corkboard map.

You hate men like this.

Predators.

Taking and hurting and killing with no issue or hesitation... Sure, psychologists might allege that he feels regret and expresses it by caring for them after death... But you disagree with that interpretation.

You've never met a man who regrets hurting a woman.

-

It's almost funny how easy it was to play with a man's emotions.

They see a pretty face marred by running mascara and red, swollen tear-filled eyes, holding a thumb out for a ride on the side of the road, and they always stop.

From then on, you can just spin whatever sob story about needing a ride...

Men love to play the hero... and oh, how idiotic they are.

They always let you in, and within an hour you have a new warm body to tie up and toy with.

In a way, you are actually surprised by how long you've been able to get away with this for.

You're secretly thankful your murders have not been given any attention so far.

You suppose that's one thing you could thank that... killer for.

You hate how the internet had given him a name already:

The Ghost

because someone allegedly witnessed him dumping a body in Heaton Park, and then vanished into the shadows of the night like a spectre.

Don't they know what happens when they give these types killers nicknames?

How that embiggens and emboldens them?

Have they never watched a true crime show? Or even a fictional one?

But... regardless... as long as young women are being slaughtered by a maniacal monster of a man, and, therefore, kept in the eyes of the world... No one is going to notice the missing middle-aged men you'd been consistently murdering for the better part of 3 years.

Yet another way where men have the upper hand over women. Lady killers just don't get taken as seriously.

You think of that as you watch the body disappear under the water, the cinder blocks you had tied to his feet dragging him under.

You wait a few minutes after his bald head vanishes from view, making sure it doesn't re-emerge, your hands tucked into the pockets of your parka, dead leaves crushed under your hiking boots.

-

Another body; the 8th one.

This one got dumped much quicker.

A 26-year-old till clerk at a Tesco had been reported missing only 36 hours before her body got found.

The news spoke about the incident and the GMPHQ deemed it a separate occurrence. An accident. The girl had been a Type 1 diabetic and seemed to have had a fatal sugar crash.

But you know it has to have been 'The Ghost'.

You don't know why. But you can just tell.

And, for the first time, as you draw up the line over the map, to signal where she got picked up and where she got dumped... there's an overlay.

The pick-up site, somewhere between her job, and her home... and the dumpsite.. Alexandra Park, near Oldham. Both those locations were mere minutes away from where the second victim had been picked up months ago.

Has he gotten sloppy?

Has her sudden death thrown a wrench in his plans and caused him to panic and pick somewhere nearby?

Your eyebrows twitch and a smirk takes over your lips as you finally find something you can exploit.

"Got you, you fuckin' knob'ead." You say and can't help the proud chuckle that escapes your mouth.

-

Simon's pissed off.

He feels like shit after having gotten that girl killed on his watch.

Not that he hadn't gotten the other ones killed either, but this one had truly been an accident.

Between the stress and the fear, her blood sugar had dropped and Simon hadn't noticed before he left the house to pop to the shops and get them both some food.

And by the time he got back and made her dinner, she was just... gone.

It startled him.

Startled him more than when the other ones died.

While looking in her purse for a justification as to why she passed... like any medication he failed to give her, he found the insulin pen and the sugar monitor.

So now, here he is. Back on the street. Back on the prowl. With 8 accidental kills under his belt and a desperate need to fix his streak.

He drives aimlessly. It's a Saturday night and Simon was sure he was going to find some young, vulnerable girl wandering about and stumbling over her own feet, too drunk or high to even walk in a straight line without stumbling or having to lean on street lamps and walls for support.

He hates seeing girls in that state. Young, vulnerable, alone... Left to be preyed upon by some creep in the shadows... Their support systems having failed them...

What kind of friend leaves a drunk girl to find her way home alone when she can barely stand?

What kind of manager lets an employee walk home after dark?

What kind of parent, or sibling, lets a girl walk home from the bus terminal during a storm?

And then they wonder why girls get raped or murdered senselessly by dirty bastards in back alleys.

That only happens because no one protects these vulnerable girls.

They protect them as children, but not as adults? What kind of world does such a thing?

Probably the same world that misinterprets his actions as senseless killing.

He's not a killer.

He's... just very bad at taking care of the girls he... 'helps'...

He never means to hurt them. He's no monster. He just wants to protect them.

-

For once it's actually raining. Heavily so. The water has soaked through the slinky mini skirt and spaghetti strap top you're wearing, your heels are open-toed and slippery, and each step you take feels like you're about to fall face-first into the mud.

You've had your arm out-stretched and your thumb up for the better part of an hour, trying to flag down any car driving past, only to get no luck.

You're at your wits' end, and so so close to calling it a night and trying to stop baiting a driver into taking you in. It's that bad tonight. You can't seem to reel anything in.

The cold wind nips at the exposed skin on your arms and legs, and you know well you'll spend the next week in bed with the nastiest cold of your life.

A car zooms past you as you walk and show your thumb, only to groan and protest when it doesn't stop...

But it does slow down to a stop not far ahead of you, having turned on its blinkers after spotting your outstretched arm and thumb up.

Rushing over to it, you stumble a few times and trip and slip with your heels on the wet tar of the road, before you come up to the passenger side door.

Look in the window, you find a young-ish looking bloke behind the wheel, looking at you with concerned eyes and knitted brows. He leans over and pops the door open for you.

"Get in, get in!" He tells you urgently when he notices you shivering like a wet dog in the rain.

Climbing inside the car carefully, you close the door behind you, hearing how the rain and wind turn muffled once you do.

It's surprisingly clean inside, the air freshener hanging from the rearview mirror smelling of pine. It's also warm, so warm, the heater running at max temp and making the car so much more cosy.

"Oh my God, thank you so much for stopping!" You whine, forcing yourself to sniffle and hiccup as tears pour down your face. They're fake ones, warranted by you watching a handful of soldier-coming-home videos on youtube and using some menthol-infused stick in your undereye.

"You alright, sweet'eart?" The man asks as he looks at you with worried eyes. "Are you all alone out here?" He asks and glances out of the window.

He's younger than most of the men you usually bait out, but he'll do. He's also... more handsome than most of them too. Long, prominent nose, a long jaw and chin, pouty pink lips, and the biggest brown eyes, not to mention a crew cut worth of blonde hair.

"Yeah..." You sniffle. "My boyfriend he... we were coming back from a birthday party and we... he... we were arguing and he tossed me out of the car and... and...!" You explain. The practiced lie slips through your teeth quickly. It's been used on about 7 of the 20 or so men you've wiped off the map, and you say it as if you truly believe it, which helps sell it.

You also stumble over your words, as if you're starting to choke up, to make sure you sound even more distraught. Men love when you're hyperventilating.

"Alright, it's alright-!" He tries to reassure you and sets a hand on your shoulder. "God, you're freezing. How long have you been out there?" He asks you, concerned.

"I- I don't know! An hour?" You answer with a whine, your lip quivering as more sobs rack your body.

Your eyes are sharp, though. You're noting his every movement. How he quickly pulls away from the backrest of his seat and shrugs off his coat and wraps it around your bare shoulders. "Here. It's alright. You're alright."

You continue softly sniffling, tucking your legs to the side toward the door, while hiding your face in your hand.

"Where can I take you?" The blond man asks gently as he glances at you and slowly leans closer, resting an arm on the steering wheel, the other on the centre console.

"I don't... I don't know..." You whine and sniffle. "I can't... I can't go home... I can't face him right now..." You trail off. "I can't believe he'd toss me out of the car like that...!"

"Well, I'm sorry to say, love, but he sounds like a right knob'ead." He says and carefully pats you on the shoulder. "How about I take you to the bus terminal? Or the station?"

"I don't know...!" You whimper. "He took my things with him... I can't even buy a ticket home to my mum..." You hiccup and try to clean the tears off the corner of your eyes.

He's handsome, he speaks calmly, hasn't tried to touch you longer than simply patting you for reassurance, and even gave you his jacket... You almost feel bad about doing this to him. Almost.

"Tell you wha'." The bloke says as he leans a bit closer, tilting his head to look at you in the eye. "I'll take you to the bus terminal and give you a couple more pounds so you can call your family or a friend to come get you, yeah?"

Sniffling, you shake your head. "No... you're already... doing so much! I can't... I can't even pay you back!" You add.

You really should earn an Oscar for this performance. The damsel in distress who's actually such a good girl that she doesn't want to impose on this man's money or take too much of his help.

"Don't worry about any of that." He tells you and waves his hand to dismiss the point, before leaning over and fixing the direction of the air vents on the dash, making sure they point at you to keep you warm. "You don't have to pay me back, alright?"

Nodding a bit, you try to stop crying and rub your eyes with your hands, causing an even bigger mess within your make-up, your fingers now also stained with mascara.

"Here. It's alright. No need to cry anymore." The driver says affectionately as he offers you a tissue from a pack, before he shifts in his seat and starts driving forward.

-

Simon watches you out of the corner of his eye as he drives. Poor little thing, all alone, abandoned by her boyfriend, left on the side of the road...

It's like the universe had handed you to him on a silver platter. He couldn't not take you in! And, this time, he's not going to let anything happen to you.

He's not risking it.

And so of course he's going to soothe you, to calm you down, you, the poor little thing, that got left on a side road by your awful boyfriend, like a stray cat no one wants to feed...

That's the thought in his head as he drives down the wet roads, the windshield wipers working overtime to beat the pouring rain that decided to attack the city of Manchester even more aggressively than usual.

Simon glances at you out of the corner of his eye every few minutes, making sure to drive carefully and steadily, and trying to spot the look in your face as he does.

You still seem stressed, frazzled, worried. The tears haven't stopped despite your breathing having settled...

He wonders if you've had anything to drink. You're definitely not drunk, but the amount of tears... maybe tipsy?

Maybe you won't even need to be threatened. You'll just... let him take you into his house, gently guide you into the bathroom and let you wash off the mud and rain...

He'll give you clothes, and food, and let you watch tv with him... And he'll keep you warm and safe, like everyone in your life has failed to, that got you to the moment you were now in...

Alone.

Afraid.

Abandoned.

He wants to tell you not to worry, that he's here now... But he holds his tongue. You'll hear it later.

-

"You should've kept going forward instead of turning right..." You say aloud, forcing your voice to still sound soft and meek, as you look out of the window.

You've been driving for a while. You've kept your head low, enjoying the warmth coming from the A/C, which helps with the genuine cold wetness of the rain that settled on your skin and bones.

You're not stupid. You know the way to the bus terminal and to all the train stations in the area...

He's not taking you to either. In fact, you're pretty sure you've taken 3 rights in the last 5 minutes, and are, in short, going back the way you came.

"Sorry. It's easy to get turned around with this rain, I'll go back to the main road." He replies. His tone apologetic, and his brow scrunched in concern... But his eyes... his eyes are hard.

It sends a tingle down your spine. For once, you actually baited out a man that has nasty intentions with you.

Had he not tried to do that, you would've considered letting him live... But no, of course, he's actually a creep...

What a shame... He's actually kind of cute. In a blue collar sort of way.

It gives you some weird sense of satisfaction, the realization in the back of your mind that you might have succeeded... that you might have bated him out... The Ghost.

Your hand carefully slips into the left side of the waistband of your slinky skirt, the side closest to the door, so he can't see, your fingers already wrapping around the handle of your pistol.

Your eyes remain on the street, the road, keeping an eye out as he returns to the main road and goes back over the area he has just driven past. A closed down shop, the post office...

And you wait.

You wait patiently for the next time he tries to turn right and put you back on course toward the area you had triangulated for The Ghost to live in or work out of...

And he does. He does just that.

Within a minute, he turns right again...

And you don't hesitate.

Your fingers tighten around the pistol handle and you rip it off the confines of your skirt, your arm hurling itself toward him, steadily pressing the barrel to his temple...

Only for you to notice his arm moving sharply at the same time and, you're suddenly staring down the barrel of a gun as well.

His eyes are wide, his brown irises nearly invisible from how wide his pupils are blown and he stops the car suddenly with a hard brake that jostles you both forward.

Looking each other in the eye, over the top of both your pistols, you can't help but feel a rush of adrenaline through your veins.

The look of surprise, confusion and pure dread painted in his features, the way his brows knit together and furrow in displeasure, his lips already twisted into a scowl...

It's a sickly sweet pleasure, to spot the way that, just like the other ones, he's scared of your pistol... It's likely his first time... But an unfamiliar warmth forms in your tummy as you stare down his pistol too... It's also your first time...

"Well, well, well... Would you look at that?" You quip as a smirk takes over your lips. "Looks like I've busted myself a Ghost."

You don't miss the way his brows go from concerned and fearful to dropping low onto his eyelids, and his jaw clenches in disgust.

Got him.

[dmitry-x]

A webcomic about Earth without gravity

Skydown is a visual journey through both the ugly and the beauty of a weightless world — where you have a chance to be one of the last people standing.

Our differences from other comics are as follows: 

☑️ Every character is a real person 🏃‍♂️‍➡️  Animated scenes 🔊  Sound accompaniment 🌟  First 100 fans get Issue #1 for free 👆  Have your say on the plot

Stay Tuned

Explore a world where gravity doesn’t stay put anymore.

Several years ago, Earth’s gravity began to come and go, changing mankind forever. Whole cities floated. Millions vanished without a trace. Riots and religious hysteria swept across entire continents. But the survivors adapted. They found ways to stay grounded—and learned to predict “gravity jumps” with the accuracy of a weather forecast.

The problem? Something’s changed. The jumps are becoming unpredictable again…

[zzencat]

Things To Expect + Advice In August 2024 - PAC

Hey, Teddy! What’s the forecast for August 2024? Where’s the energy headed? What should I expect? Any advice? What should I do?

Deck: deviant moon tarot

TO ENHANCE ACCURACY BEFORE CHOOSING: Clear your mind. Time is now patient and still. Close your eyes, inhale deeply, fill your chest up to the fullest, feel the soft air brush up against the ridges of your nose. Breathe out.

Breathe and choose. From left to right.

———————

Pile 1. Fight or flight?

• there might be a clash of ideas or communication issues. maybe a sucky group project. maybe some sucky friend group issues. maybe family is being a bit of a pain. whatever the drama is, you’re trying to keep out of it. in fact, you’ll be trying to avoid any drama.

• ^^it might bother you in the background, and if you have a leveled head, i suggest you speak up more this month. Stick up for yourselves or other people! This pile feels very introverted to me and keeping peace and harmony is very important for you. But keep in mind that sometimes, doing nothing is more harmful. Use your better judgment for these situations.

• if you have questionable people around you, people who do things you’re not proud of, or are in a bad situation, you’re being called to leave this group behind, find better scenery and connections.

• on the bright side, look forward to making a new friend or new friends this month!! I’m also hearing “stop being a wallflower”

• find those who share similar interests to you. Join online communities, get involved, find clubs, share your findings with others.

• have strength and be courageous! you might think you have no say or no right to speak up, but you do. this is going to unlock a side of you that you didn’t even know you had. You have a voice!!!Please use it!! Good luck pile 1!

——————————

Pile 2. Ehh…meh…feeling like a potato 🥔

• not much tbh. you might be at a standstill in life from trying to figure out what the next thing you want is, making yourself relatively comfortable first. so this month, there’s going to be extra effort going into self-care!!

• ^^ dance or sing when no one’s around!! Get moving!!

• be careful of any scams btw!! you should keep an eye on your belongings or money this month.

• you have dreams, but feel that it might not be the right timing. You could be in a stump. A lot of stagnancy and waiting for something to happen.

• ^^ this might be bothering you a lot, like feeling like you could be doing something better with your life (or with your time or skills). you might think in the back of your mind that life “oh, well. My life is just rotting away, but I’ll just deal with it” *shrugs* — Suggestion: Find a hobby or passion. Find your purpose in life again. Remember: only YOU can give your life meaning. No one else.

• not a lot of traveling. a lot of staying at home and figuring out life and what happens next. you might find your job to be extremely boring and draining, that you could use a break. Be careful not to get too careless or sloppy at work.

• there’s also a sense of laziness or not feeling motivated. An obvious lack of drive. You might make decisions without thinking too much or caring.

• (not my place to armchair-diagnose, but if you struggle with depressive symptoms and you’re not able to get professional help, sharing your thoughts/ideas with friends/family/even fuckin reddit, or writing them out in a journal would benefit you immensely. Just tell somebody. You just need any outlet to let out pent up creativity. Doesn’t even have to be creative—you could scribble something. As long as you’re not directing this self-loathing and pitying energy inwards.)

• a lot of stagnancy in this pile so this is a wake up call for change. Get active, get out there, and do something you actually like!!!! Don’t waste more time. Good luck to you pile 2 👍

——————————

Pile 3. Stop for no one.

• some people here will be going through a break up, but you’ll feel better after it happens. you’re going to leave a very significant thing behind you and move on with confidence. either some of you already saw it or you realized in hindsight that it hand to be done in order for you to move forward

• ^^ this is not exclusively romantic!! some will be cutting ties with friends or even family, but once it happens, you will finally be aligned with your emotions and what your higher self has been craving deep down inside

• it will be a little shitty, but I see some of you smiling!! Trust the process! You’re leaving behind things, people, and qualities that have held you down for so long

• a lot of you guys are taking a risk here, sending someone something, flirting, being honest, but you’re finally going in the direction you want. you’re tired of waiting. lots of doubts, but you’ll make your move and decide to see this to the end.

• you are going to face a lot of realizations (positive and negative) when it comes to other people in August (work, friends, school, potential love partners)

• it’s really up to you this month. stagnancy will lead you nowhere, whereas action will bring you great abundance

• ^^ some of you will receive awards or recognition for your efforts. others will be rewarded great wealth.

• a lot of business moves are prominent in this pile!!! investors, potential business partners and expansion! Be cautious and consider all your moves, but go for it pile 3!

• some of you will lead or have a chance to teach people while in a higher position (ex: a mentor, coach, etc.)

————————-

Teddy note: Hey guys!! I hope you enjoy this pac! I’m starting a self-improvement series (sorta?) and I will be doing these monthly! Rmr to take what resonates and leave what doesn’t. Thank you again 😎👍👍

[asestimationsconsultants]

Investor Confidence Starts with a Construction Cost Estimating Service

Securing investor confidence is one of the most critical factors for the success of any construction project. Investors want assurance that their capital will be managed prudently and that the project will be completed on time and within budget. One of the foundational pillars of building this confidence is having a reliable, accurate, and transparent construction cost estimating service. Accurate cost estimates provide the financial clarity and risk management that investors demand before committing their funds.

Why Investor Confidence Matters in Construction Projects

Construction projects typically involve large sums of money, long timelines, and multiple stakeholders. The complexity and risks inherent in construction can deter investors if not managed properly. Key investor concerns include:

Budget overruns and hidden costs

Project delays and their financial impact

Regulatory and compliance risks

Market and economic fluctuations affecting costs

Lack of transparency in project financials

To mitigate these concerns, investors rely heavily on well-prepared cost estimates that provide a clear picture of expected expenditures and potential risks.

Role of a Construction Cost Estimating Service in Building Investor Trust

A professional cost estimating service acts as an independent, objective advisor that adds credibility to the project’s financial planning. It supports investor confidence by:

Providing Accurate and Detailed Budgets

Breaks down costs into clear categories (materials, labor, equipment, contingency)

Uses current market data and historical project benchmarks

Reflects realistic assumptions about schedule and scope

Highlighting Risks and Contingencies

Identifies potential cost overruns and their causes

Allocates appropriate contingency funds

Enables investors to understand where risks lie and how they are managed

Supporting Transparent Communication

Offers standardized reporting formats for easy understanding

Facilitates ongoing updates as project conditions change

Builds trust through consistent, verifiable data

How Accurate Estimating Influences Investment Decisions

Risk Reduction: When investors see thorough cost estimates that incorporate realistic contingencies, their perceived risk decreases, making them more willing to invest.

Budget Alignment: Clear, detailed budgets help investors ensure the project aligns with their financial targets and return expectations.

Financing Facilitation: Accurate estimates support loan applications and funding approvals by demonstrating financial planning rigor.

Strategic Decision-Making: Investors can evaluate different project scenarios and make informed choices about scope, materials, or timelines based on cost impact.

Key Elements Investors Look for in Construction Cost Estimates

Completeness: Does the estimate cover all aspects, from preliminary design to closeout?

Transparency: Are assumptions, contingencies, and allowances clearly documented?

Current Market Rates: Are labor and material costs based on up-to-date pricing?

Flexibility: Does the estimate allow for scope changes or unforeseen conditions?

Consistency: Is the estimate aligned with project milestones and schedule?

Common Investor Concerns Addressed by Estimating Services

Overruns due to underestimated labor or materials

Price volatility in supply chains

Impact of regulatory changes

Delays from permitting or inspections

Cost escalation from design changes

Construction cost estimating services analyze these factors and incorporate them into estimates to help investors anticipate and plan for such challenges.

Building Long-Term Investor Relationships Through Estimating Transparency

Beyond initial funding, ongoing investor confidence depends on transparent, regular cost reporting. Estimating services often support:

Monthly or quarterly cost updates

Change order impact analysis

Forecasting final project costs based on progress

This continuous insight helps maintain trust and keeps investors engaged throughout the project lifecycle.

Conclusion

Investor confidence is not given lightly—it must be earned through meticulous financial planning and transparency. A construction cost estimating service is a cornerstone in this process, providing the detailed, realistic, and clear cost information that investors need to commit capital and support project success. By partnering with professional estimators, project teams can unlock funding, reduce risk, and build lasting investor trust.

[farlane]

Woody the Woodchuck waves goodbye to winter

Woody the Woodchuck by Howell Nature Center The Howell Nature Center shares: Groundhog Day 2025 is a wrap! Woody has predicted EARLY SPRING! 🌷🪻☀️ Thank you to everyone who came out to help us celebrate with Michigan’s official woodchuck. This was Woody’s 27th prediction, and her accuracy rate is about 65%! So keep your Punxsutawney Phil forecast of 6 more weeks of winter, I’m going with…

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Ilana Berger at MMFA:

As President Donald Trump’s administration orders mass layoffs and cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, local meteorologists and influencer storm chasers — including some weather experts who previously claimed to avoid politics or expressed right-leaning views — are speaking out in support of federal employees and the essential information provided by the agency. 

Trump’s funding cuts and layoffs will hobble NOAA and the National Weather Service, potentially restricting access to a vital public good that costs taxpayers very little

NOAA and its subsidiaries, including the National Weather Service, employ thousands of scientists, engineers, and other experts to conduct vital research that is shared with the public. NOAA’s products and services range “from daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings, and climate monitoring to fisheries management, coastal restoration and supporting marine commerce.” The NWS estimates that the critical information it provides costs just $4 per U.S. resident per year. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, accessed 3/14/25; The New York Times, 2/8/25]  

Project 2025 — the right-wing plan for a second Trump administration organized by The Heritage Foundation with over 100 conservative partner organizations — called for NOAA to be “broken up and downsized” and urged the National Weather Service to “fully commercialize its forecasting operations.” Weather experts across the country have expressed alarm at Project 2025’s plans to dismantle NOAA under the new administration. Project 2025 architect Russell Vought, who now heads Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, has promised, “We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected.” [Media Matters, 5/31/24, 9/27/24, 2/28/25; ProPublica, 10/28/24]  

Starting on February 27, the Trump administration has laid off more than 800 NOAA employees, plus another 500 who resigned if the agency promised to pay them through September. According to The New York Times, “The two rounds of departures together represent about 10 percent of NOAA’s roughly 13,000 employees.” On March 12, NOAA announced in an email to its staffers that the agency would be laying off another 1,029 employees, or roughly 10% of the agency’s remaining workforce. [The New York Times, 2/27/25, 2/28/25]  

The Associated Press: “After this upcoming round of cuts, NOAA will have eliminated about one out of four jobs since President Donald Trump took office in January.” “This is not government efficiency,” said former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “It is the first steps toward eradication. There is no way to make these kinds of cuts without removing or strongly compromising mission capabilities.” [The Associated Press, 3/12/25]  

The NWS’ National Hurricane Center has made great strides in tracking dangerous storms, but Trump’s layoffs are threatening that progress. A February preview of a report from the National Hurricane Center concluded that for the first time, the center managed to “explicitly forecast a system that was not yet a tropical cyclone (pre-Helene potential tropical cyclone) to become a 100-kt (115 mph) major hurricane within 72 hours.” However, experts fear that funding cuts and layoffs at NOAA’s Office of Aircraft Operations will impact the ability of the agency’s specialized “Hurricane Hunters” to collect data used for tracking and predicting destructive storms. [National Hurricane Center, 2/24/25; Yale Climate Connections, 3/6/25]

Meteorologists and storm chasers of all political persuasions issue dire warnings that the Project 2025/DOGE-inspired cuts to the NOAA and the NWS threaten public safety and forecast accuracy.

[rjzimmerman]

Where local forecast offices no longer monitor weather around-the-clock. (Washington Post)

Excerpt from this story from the Washington Post:

For at least half a century, the National Weather Service has been an around-the-clock operation. But after the U.S. DOGE Service led efforts to shrink the federal government, that is no longer possible in some parts of the country.

Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

In four of the agency’s 122 weather forecasting offices around the country, there aren’t enough meteorologists to staff an overnight shift, according to the National Weather Service Employees Organization, a union representing agency workers. And at least several more forecast offices are expected to stop staffing an overnight shift as early as Sunday.

Each of the offices has local knowledge about weather hazards and geographic features that helps improve the accuracy of weather forecasts and warnings and inform local officials’ decisions to close schools for wintry weather or evacuate residents ahead of hurricanes. Without a meteorologist working overnight, those offices’ duties to monitor conditions and issue forecasts and warnings will temporarily pass to neighboring offices each night, said Tom Fahy, the union’s legislative director.

At an agency whose staff have a strong commitment to their lifesaving work, he said, the circumstances have stretched employees’ resilience “to the breaking point” and “hobbled the agency’s esprit de corps.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the Weather Service, “remains adequately staffed to ensure that critical research continues and that actionable data continues to be released to the public as regularly scheduled,” spokeswoman Kim Doster said in an email. “NOAA anticipates no loss of critical information to the American people.”

The agency is meanwhile seeking to transfer employees to the most critically understaffed offices to fill gaps. Doster said it is also seeking hiring authority — NOAA and the Weather Service remain subject to a hiring freeze imposed in January — while also pursuing “a reevaluation of resource allocation and priorities across all line offices within the bureau.”