#prediction and inference

[mummer]

would you mind sharing some of your twow predictions/hopes? i'm trying to cope with a lack of twow 🤒

oh man where would i even begin. im gonna do straight up hard predictions and not allow myself to be very self indulgent here is what i think will happen unironically

melisandre does not intentionally resurrect jon bc that makes no sense for her character. i dont think she'll be the one to do it at all but if she does it will be an accident and also a brain shattering experience for her

jon is considered king beyond the wall (not king in the north.... yet) but you already knew that

jon spends more time beyond the wall actually. i am keeping this concept vague

night lamp is definitely real and stannis takes winterfell at some point but he wont survive the book

sam's oldtown chapters become unexpected fandom sleeper faves like theon's in dance

the rosby heir is olyvar frey

dany does not come to westeros before her final chapter and never even encounters jon. slave revolt in volantis yayyyyyy!!!!!

there is still no R+L=J reveal

loras ends up fine but drastically scarred

elia sand and aegon have a forbidden romance

pyp and grenn die offpage (i predict this so that i can be pleasantly surprised when they show up)

danny flint is revealed to be coldhands shut up actually

gerris drinkwater is surprisingly important to the plot

brienne and jaime both survive the encounter with LSH and survive the whole book i saw this in my mind

barristan either dies really early on or he eventually defects to join aegon because he thinks he's the more rightful heir. the ol treason for blood

the faceless men turn out to just be another branch of the iron bank who are doing assassinations for money more than obscure religious/political reasons. this blackpills arya enough for her to return home

sansa encounters jeyne again and this is what provokes her to move against littlefinger

theon...... joins the night's watch..... question mark

there's a gay sex scene but no one likes it

[imagoofball]

Wilson introduces fantasy football to House who's like "that's stupid" and then continues to write out his predictions all over the hospital to prove to people he was right for every draft, play, trade, etc. Wilson has only been right the two times House was wrong.

[kaminokilljoy]

lestat did all that horrible shit and beat up Louis really bad but when all of this chaos ended in their adoptive daughter centuries dying, i think it genuinely fucked with him because that's the last thing she saw. I think that's the beginning of his "redemption" later when Armand and Louis tells him they'll be together forever he simply shrugs it off but SEVENTY SEVEN FUCKING YEARS LATER by which point Louis thinks Armand will be his lifelong partner, the man who will never betray him and truly loves him despite his (Armand) inherently monstrous nature, through this mere mortal Daniel Molloy it is revealed who ACTUALLY wrore tje notesbto the" play" where Louis, Claudia, madeleine are put on trial and suddenly it all makes sense why Armand erased t he aftermath of the first interview with Daniel from louis mind (which was brought back with sound engineering) he was SCARED. He knew his act wouldn't hold up forever. Amd while Louis realizes all of this he also realized Armand wasn't the one who saved him in the theater (mind control to get the audience, who thinks this a play, to say banishment instead of death) but in fact it was Lestat because I guess Claudia's death just fucked with him that bad. She wasn't just his adoptive daughter, he was her MAKER, the closest thing a vampire can feel to having a father or a mother. The show leads you on for two fucking seasons to believe these things about these characters, believe that loumand still have a chance and then it all just comes crashing down and you're left with nothing but the fractured, broken, utterly dissolved sense of morality you started with. Lestat de Lioncourt, adulterer, sadist, and liar, monster and dramatic through decades and centuries blaming it all on his inherent vampiristic traits, brought to tears, TEARS because of him being the last thing Claudia fucking sees before she dies. He could always run and hide, run away to Antoinette, hide behind the excuse that he was just made this way but he could not run away from Claudias power. I realize how idiotic and cringe this sounds but please let me have my moment

[oceanamethyst]

Would you guys believe me if I said that there's going to be a song in season 2 called, "My Way" starring Alastor, Lucifer, and Charlie?

Would you guys believe me if I said there's going to be a song in season 2 called, "The One and Lonely" starring Valentino, Angel Dust, and Cherri Bomb?

No? Okay.

[bogglebabbles]

Compelled to play a video game solely because I keep seeing art of the protagonist and my little 'oh god this looks like a guy i could be obsessed with' senses start tingling every time.

[galaxgay]

I get that its the whole narrative and its probably the most... important thing about Aziraphale's character and story, but the fact that Aziraphale never says what he actually thinks and feels at any point in time is so mind numbingly frustrating.

[starlit-eudemonia]

Thinking abt Kuras having anti-glasses that dull the senses. Cuz he’s too keen.

[rabbitmotifs]

remember longcat jane? i remember longcat

[zmpl]

post: el problema es el capitalismo

half of the people in the notes, predictably: good word!😱 it appears that, despite not being fluent in spanish, i have this strange intuition🧠 that “problema” means “problem” and “capitalismo” means “capitalism!”☝️ from there, i think🤔 i can put these words together to infer that this post says “the problem is capitalism!” 🤯🤯🤯 truly, this post transcends language!🙌

[frank-olivier]

The Predictive Self: Insights from Active Inference and the Free Energy Principle

The concepts of Active Inference and the Free Energy Principle have emerged as pivotal frameworks in understanding the intricacies of agency, whether in biological systems or artificial intelligence. These theories, rooted in the intersection of neuroscience, philosophy, and AI, offer a profound lens through which to examine the fundamental nature of interaction between agents and their environments.

At its core, Active Inference posits that agents engage with their environment in a manner that minimizes surprise, thereby reducing entropy. This process is underpinned by the Free Energy Principle, which suggests that agents strive to optimize the fit between their internal models of the world and the external reality. This optimization is achieved by minimizing the free energy, a proxy for the difference between the agent's predictions and the actual sensory input. The Free Energy Principle thus provides a unifying framework for understanding perception, action, and learning across various scales and systems.

The discussion around Active Inference inevitably touches upon the concepts of agency and free will. By positioning agents as entities that resist entropy, the theory subtly aligns with compatibilist views, where free will is seen as compatible with determinism. This perspective challenges traditional dichotomies, encouraging a more nuanced understanding of agency that transcends the biological-artificial divide. Furthermore, the emphasis on minimizing surprise underscores the predictive nature of the mind, echoing theories that suggest our understanding of the world is fundamentally confabulatory and based on predictive models.

The distinction between observational systems, like ChatGPT, and truly interactive, adaptive systems based on Active Inference, raises crucial questions about machine understanding and human uniqueness. If human beliefs, motives, and desires are, to some extent, confabulatory, what does this imply for our understanding of consciousness and the development of artificial intelligence? The ethical implications are profound, highlighting the need for careful consideration in the creation of autonomous, adaptive AI systems that may increasingly mirror human-like agency.

The interdisciplinary nature of Active Inference suggests a wide array of applications. Clinically, it may inform new approaches to understanding and treating neurological or psychiatric conditions by focusing on the internal models and predictive processes underlying patient experiences. In the realm of AI and robotics, embracing Active Inference could lead to the development of more interactive, adaptive systems that learn and evolve in a more human-like manner.

Thomas Parr: Active Inference (Machine Learning Street Talk, May 2024)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

[luv-again]

what astounds me is the fact that I've added a bunch of stuff into my projects this year, only for them to be supported by canon AFTER I made it up. the stuff I've seen of sxsg is literally supporting a bunch of shit I wrote PRIOR to the game coming out ???

[muirneach]

andrey wont start for a little while while they get the court ready but i’ll predict it now, he’s gonna freak out in this. the guy he’s playing is a clay court specialist and iirc was the first person to force five sets this tourney

[edujournalblogs]

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[kiwiqueen13]

Some MORE frames from the animation I’m cooking up, this is a sequence of events where the boys are having a bit of a ‘disagreement’… about WHAT exactly, I’ll let you infer lol

From what I can predict, the animation will take four more weeks to make, plus another week or two to get the sound design and voice acting added. I promise it’ll be worth the wait :D

[official-linguistics-post]

on reconstruction and historical linguistics

to follow up on today's reblog, i want to comment briefly on the apparent misapprehension that linguistic reconstruction is just guesswork with a fancy name, because that's not accurate!

reconstruction is based on specific, well-attested constraints of linguistic development. we know from centuries of investigation that languages tend to change in predictable ways. we also have a decent understanding of the complexities introduced by phenomena like language contact, which can result in borrowing on multiple structural levels. our methods are well established and borne out by evidence.

comparative reconstruction involves applying these known constraints ("rules") in reverse on a collected body of words in related descendant languages. when possible, we also incorporate historical written evidence, which often provides midpoint references for changes in progress. it is always recognized by historical linguists that reconstruction can be imperfect; we cannot know what information has been lost.

the results of reconstruction can be mixed, but i'll let campbell (2013:144) explain:

How Realistic are Reconstructed Proto-languages? The success of any given reconstruction depends on the material at hand to work with and the ability of the comparative linguist to figure out what happened in the history of the languages being compared. In cases where the daughter languages preserve clear evidence of what the parent language had, a reconstruction can be very successful, matching closely the actual spoken ancestral language from which the compared daughters descend. However, there are many cases in which all the daughters lose or merge formerly contrasting sounds or eliminate earlier alternations through analogy, or lose morphological categories due to changes of various sorts. We cannot recover things about the proto-language via the comparative method if the daughters simply do not preserve evidence of them. In cases where the evidence is severely limited or unclear, we often make mistakes. We make the best inferences we can based on the evidence available and on everything we know about the nature of human languages and linguistic change. We do the best we can with what we have to work with. Often the results are very good; sometimes they are less complete. In general, the longer in the past the proto-language split up, the more linguistic changes will have accumulated and the more difficult it becomes to reconstruct with full success. (emphasis mine)

or, to quote labov's (1982:20) pithier if less optimistic approach:

Historical linguistics may be characterized as the art of making the best use of bad data, in the sense that the fragments of the literary record that remain are the results of historical accidents beyond the control of the investigator.

in sum, historical linguists are very realistic about what we can achieve, but the confidence we do have is genuinely well earned, because linguistics is a scientific field and we treat our investigations with rigor.

---

Campbell, Lyle. 2013. Historical Linguistics: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Labov, William. 1982. "Building on Empirical Foundations." In Perspectives on Historical Linguistics. Winifred P. Lehmann and Yakov Malkiel, eds. Pp. 17-92. Amsterdam: John Benjamins.

[icearts]

Nobody is talking about how Angeal and Sephiroth are exact opposites in EC and it's making me unwell so I'm gonna dump it.

Have some pictures of their 2D renders for fun

Prepare yourself, this rant is a little long (but don't worry there's visual aids)

There's more obvious tells out there, like their body language and overall postures, Angeal is generally more open and Sephiroth is generally more guarded.

However, notably, this carries into how they hold their weapons throughout all of their appearances, even in Crisis Core

Fair warning, my source is multiple Google articles so prepare for some inaccuracy and uncertainty. Feel free to correct me.

Sephiroth carries his sword in an ox guard, which has the purpose of intimidating your opponent while also having the sword protect your vital organs.

Angeal's sword is held in a plow guard, which operates a bit like a fool's guard (I actually thought it was one at first), making yourself look more open to attacks to Provoke an enemy into coming in. Unlike the fools guard, the plow guard gives you a quicker maneuverability to strike first once the opponent comes in.

This is really important for their fighting styles, as Sephiroth is quick and deadly, meanwhile Angeal (i think the game refers to his character type as a Provoke Tank) always stands somewhat in front of Seohiroth and tries to draw in hits, acting as a shield. They have the sword and shield dynamic

BUT ITS ALSO RELEVANT TO THEIR PERSONALITIES you see Sephiroth acts cold and bitter, trying to keep people at arm's length, especially raw after EC Part 1 where he and his past friends had a Not Great Time (I won't give the recap sorry it'll take too long and I'm laser focused rn). Anyways, Sephiroth, much like his stance, tries to intimidate people into staying back. He will not let himself look vulnerable to attacks.

Meanwhile, Angeal is more open and friendly, taking Sephiroth's briskness and impoliteness in stride. He's open and welcoming even when Sephiroth's defense is his offense.

They're also both well trained with swords, so they can probably infer a lot about each other's personalities through how they hold their blade. Angeal seeing Sephiroth as someone who is guarded and closed off, avoiding getting hurt by being the first to lash out. Sephiroth views Angeal as being too open and vulnerable, and may even have a presumption that, like his fool's guard, Angeal is baiting Sephiroth into getting close enough that he can attack him the second he's open. It's good shit.

Next up: the weird purple-vignetted dreams they get in EC

So there's some spooky shenanigans going on in this story. I have my own predictions as to what's going on, but for future's sake, at the time of writing this is am only 2 chapters in. I'll try to be more direct to context and then provide my future game predictions at the end. Cool? Cool.

So we know based on canon that Sephiroth's dream isn't a memory, or an event or anything like that. So by process of elimination, Angeal's is the same way. Plus

Little confirmation here that Angeal always felt unable to care for his parents, which hurts me so bad btw. Anyways, analysis time.

Sephiroth fantasizes about being cared for and reassured. He wants to know what it's like for someone to love him unconditionally, he cannot even imagine the possibility. This dream shows him exactly that, his mother making him food and telling him she's always been there for him and they've always has this. In the dream, he believes it although is confused by conflicting memories. She's momentarily able to convince him that he is cared for and loved by her. In reality, he's never met his mother (her name isn't Jenova either, but that's a story for another day).

Angeal fantasizes about being to care for others. He wants to help his village, create a strong community, care for his parents and make it so they do not have to work so hard. He wants everyone to feel safe, secure, and rested and he is willing to carry all of the work on his shoulders to the best of his ability. His dream shows him doing exactly that, which based on the falsehood of Sephiroth's dream, means it's a false memory and he never was able to care for his parents for whatever reason. Really hopeful the game will tell us soon. Maybe he did try but it wasn't enough. Maybe he was weak because they didn't have enough food. Who knows.

Also, for context, Tetsuya Nomura (FF7 director) did confirm that Angeal's father has a chronic illness and died shortly after Angeal joined SOLDIER, after having worked himself to death. So Angeal dreaming of these memories of helping his dad to support his grateful but guilty mother is likely very much influenced by a sense of grief or guilt.

Then in the next chapter, these dreams happen again.

The Banorans obviously either did not make this promise or did not act on it, seeing the state Angeal's family is in in Crisis Core, his dad having worked himself to death when he was a young recruit and his mother being in a very grief-stricken and detached state.

So this plays into how they view the world. Sephiroth longs for someone to protect him from the world he's observed to be cruel and cold. He mentions this in dialogue talking about how they world views anything different as a monster. Even SOLDIERs to which Angeal promises himself that he'll help Sephiroth see that people are not all like that.

Sephiroth is jaded and distant to protect himself, as he thinks the world will turn on him in a moment's notice. Angeal, however, holds an optimistic worldview. He believes people want to help each other and everyone wants to help each other to the best of their ability.

So they're very much opposites, but they're also exactly what each other needs. Angeal needs to feel needed and helpful, protecting people who trust and depend on him. He is friends with every SOLDIER, able to recognize them at a first glance (ironically he does not do this for Alissa but I may wait to share my theories about her). Sephiroth is guarded but secretly longs to be cared for. See where I'm going with this?

So based on how these dreams are going, they're definitely being influenced by some kind of force or another. Personally I think it's Jenova itself, as Jenova has the power to do this and to transform things into projections of loved ones in order to garner their trust (much like Kadaj does in The Kids are Alright). My prediction for where the climax of this story is gonna go is that Angeal is going to have to protect Sephiroth from these visions, and Sephiroth learns that unconditional love can come from friendship and camaraderie, not just maternity. It's gonna be great. I have entire scenes mapped out in my head about this.

They're a sword and shield, Sephiroth being quick to strike and Angeal always being there to defend. It's one of my favorite dynamics ever. Their appearances also contrast, most notably in their hair color.

They both have a resigned acceptance about the implausibility of their fantasies. Sephiroth does not have a mother to care for him, and Angeal cannot save everyone. The foil of their dynamic is so magnetic it hurts. I will scream if I see Angeal make pumpkin soup for Sephiroth in the future.

My rants getting distracted so I'll cut it off here. Merry Crisis