#understanding risk

[pandemic-info]

We often hear the risk of death or disability associated with COVID described as being “low” or “high.” Confusingly, different people can respond to the same number with very different qualifiers. Just how risky is COVID compared to other risks in our lives? We dig into that in this article.

...

Statistically, you can expect to run with the bulls 18 times before your cumulative risk of injury exceeds 50%. Beyond that point, the odds begin to stack against you. It takes 77 excursions before you can be 95% confident that you will get injured.

For such a seemingly dangerous sport, those numbers aren’t that bad. The per-infection chance of developing symptomatic Long COVID is 14.6% according to Statistics Canada. With these numbers, you can get infected with SARS-Cov-2 4 times before your risk of Long COVID approaches a 50/50 chance. After 19 infections, your cumulative risk approaches near certainty at 95%.

We would rather run with the bulls.

[michaelgabrill]

Understanding Risk Artificial Intelligence and Improving Software Quality

The software discipline has broad involvement across each of the NASA Mission Directorates. Some recent discipline focus and development areas are highlighted below, along with a look at the Software Technical Discipline Team’s (TDT) approach to evolving discipline best practices toward the future. Understanding Automation Risk Software creates automation. Reliance on that automation is increasing […] from NASA https://ift.tt/lVUL2ed

[kokodrawings]

It's ok, Minato asked for permission first

[unpeeled-human]

"why do you smoke??? just take edibles lol" so im sorry if you've never experienced or heard of this phenomenon but edibles dont work for everybody. from 10mg to 100mg to 200mg, i have never, ever gotten high off of something i've eaten. it isn't a matter of tolerance, i get high from any other method of intake, except eaten edibles. some sources say this has to do with your body weight, but seeing as i've been under 180 for all of my life, i can assume that's less of an issue. another huge factor is just how your body metabolizes drugs. the short of it is, your body's genetics may affect the way your digestive system produces enzymes, which will affect how quickly THC is metabolized into 11-Hydroxy-THC. if your body doesn't properly convert THC into 11-Hydroxy-THC, you will experience less or even no effects from edible cannabis.

[aingeal98]

More Jason and Cass thoughts (sorry but also not sorry) but if I was magically given full control over DC and could write what I'd want obviously I'd make Cass Batman but I've been thinking of what sort of reaction and role Jason would have in response. I think I'd write his version of "Congrats on the new job!" as a test, involving the Joker and civilians and gangs and Red Hood and a ton of explosives. Bruce failed me, and now he's given up. You're his successor, let's see how you handle this dilemma that freaked him out so badly he threw a batarang into my throat rather than let me avenge my own death in front of him.

So obviously Cass will overcome the traps and the puzzles. That's the fun part to show how competent both of them are and sprinkle in little character moments as we go. But then we reach the emotional crux of the matter, probably laid out as some sort of saw trap because it's Jason. Here I am, a victim of murder. You say nobody dies tonight but I did, and I want the man who did it dead. Not only did Batman fail to avenge me but he failed to stop the Joker from going on to create even more victims. What right do you have to stop me from getting justice for myself? What right does this man have to life after what he's taken from me and from countless others? I'm not trying to kill a random stranger, I'm specifically demanding justice for my own death that I never got while I was gone.

There are two ways this could go. The straightforward route if I knew my time on this run was limited would probably be a pyrrhic victory like the ones Cass's og series was so fond of. Just like Bruce in utrh, she acts on instinct and saves the Joker (and Jason this time) . A win technically, but she fails the test. Jason is once again vindicated but with nothing to show for it. The story ends with Cass sending the Joker back to jail and going back to the batcave, where the old Robin costume looms judgementally, highlighting her failure. It would be the most fitting end given their character molds, all tragedy and conviction and unstoppable force meets immovable object etc.

However... I think the option I prefer would be a little different. Cass levelling with Jason, a killer talking to a murder victim. She has no right to stop Jason from getting justice, she has no love for the Joker but she knows any death she allows to happen like this would devastate her, just like that death row inmate long ago she tried to break out but ended up letting go once the family of the victim talked to her and demanded justice. I think... In this specific situation, she'd just be honest. Morally she has no right sure. Personally she just really really doesn't want anyone to die. Give her one chance, please. Let her try it her way. Not demanding, not lecturing or insisting, just... Please. Don't do this. Let me try another way.

And then what? Jason asks.

In the end a deal is struck. Cass will take the Joker and lock him up, ensuring he never harms anyone again while also trying to rehabilitate him. But the second she fails and he gets free, Jason kills him and she won't stand in his way. It's the kind of deal that leaves both of them mildly disgusted and dissatisfied with themselves, neither of them naturally creatures of compromise when it comes to this specific topic. But Cass is willing to do anything to avoid death and Jason did not expect the new Bat to be so... Flexible? Kind of? Of course maybe she won't actually hold up her end of the deal and when the Joker gets loose she'll try and stop Jason from killing him and he'll get his miserable vindication, but right now this is something strange and new and he's mildly confused and curious about where it will go. He doesn't believe in her ability to contain the Joker forever but he's willing to let her try because her reaction to that future failure interests him. She's given him a sword of damocles to hang above her head and he didn't ask for it or expect it. It's the type of power he never thought the Bat would just... Hand to him.

The conflict ends with neither of them fully winning or losing. They both don't really know what to feel about this.

The thing is, the second Cass let's Jason kill the Joker she's hanging up the mantle. She's staking the Bat on this, because it's always go big or go home with her when it comes to saving others, even someone like the Joker. In this magical universe where I have unlimited power, Cass would lock the Joker in a secret bunker and have Leslie Thompkins talk to him daily, mostly because I think her pacifism speeches and debates in the comics would make a fun contrast to the Joker's evil sadism. (But what about his rights? Doesn't he deserve a trial and to be held in a regular prison? I'm going to be honest I think Cass would be very comfortable bending the rules on this specific situation. Morally questionable but I'd have fun with it. She's going to let Leslie treat Joker like her personal pet project to save his soul because yes she wants him to change but also she's got a city to save every night so go crazy Leslie, have fun.)

And the Batman series would continue with Cass as the lead, new challenges and new antagonists and every twenty issues or so for the first hundred we'll cut back to the Joker briefly if his chats with Leslie can help highlight some thematic element of the current arc. But bit by bit he'd slowly fade away onto oblivion, maybe getting referenced every hundred issues or so until eventually no one remembers or cares about him because there's so much else going on. Meanwhile Jason's got a good thing going as Red Hood, primarily based in Park Row and a tentative ally on the occasion when their vigilante work aligns. Unlike Joker he's a much more frequent character in the comics, and after say 10 years (this is my magical fantasy universe Cass's batman run is going to last for a very long time alright) when people think of DC characters they think of Red Hood long before they think of the Joker.

Is any of this realistic? Right now of course not. It's why I'd go with the pyrrhic victory if I actually got the chance, because it would be the best way to tell the story in the larger context of the Bat narrative. But it's my fantasy DC editor and writer daydream and I'm going to dream big. They're never going to be normal happy siblings, their personal demons will never fully let them be free and the looming possibility of losing everything they currently have narrative wise if Bruce comes back as Batman will always be there. But it's maybe the closest to peace they'll ever get. Unsatisfying and tame compromise that probably violates several laws and ethical codes but whatever. Cass has never read the Geneva convention and Jason's not going to shed tears over the Joker. Let him die relevancy wise if not physically.

[lgbtlunaverse]

So I've said multipe times now (here and here) that thinking nmj is just so blinded by privilege he doesn't undertand that acting out of line gets people killed is, in my opinion, a misunderstanding of his character that ignores the part where he's, you know, actively dying the whole time and thinks that's a good thing. But that doesn't mean I don't think privilege plays no role at all in how he views the world.

Specifically, his view that death (at least premature or violent death) means something.

Death isn't always a tragedy to NMJ, but it is always meaningful. If you kill an evil dangerous person for your righteous cause, that death had meaning. There was evil in the world and now there is less of it. Similarly, if you die in the pursuit of your righteous cause, that death has meaning, because the sheer dedication you gave to it that you were willing to die for it will further that cause, and your bretheren will be invigorated by your sacrifice to fight even harder.

If a death isn't meaningful, that's an injustice and it is up to the living to give it meaning. That's what cuts so deep about his father's murder. There were no consequences, no changes, no meaning. Wen Ruohan was just going to get away with it! He fights and wins an entire war to make it mean something, to make it so that the unjust murder of Nie Mingjue's father is part of Wen Ruohan's downfall.

But this is a view he can only hold because he's the kind of person who's death will be meaningful. Most ordinary people's deaths are meaningless. Not ontologically, not inherently, but they are made meaningless because no one cares. For death to be meaningful you either have to be so powerful that anything you risk your life for will be impacted in some way. (Like, say, if you sacrifice a long life for immense martial power in a faustian bargain with a blade) Or if people with that kind of power care enough about you to do so for you. For most people, this isn't true. A starving street kid has no power to change the unfair world that put them there, even if they risk their life trying, and no one will do it for them once they die.

Nie Mingjue knows this in abstract, and of course rightfully believes it's wrong. But all that does is make it yet another righteous cause people should be willing to die for. Everyone's deaths should mean something, we'll make it so or die trying!

This is what the conflict between nieyao is about at its core. Because Jin Guangyao, fundamentally, cannot conceive of his own death as meaningful. Nie Mingjue grew up around powerful men who could change the world but refuse to do so because god forbid they risk a single hair on their perfect heads. Meng Yao, on the other hand, grew up in an environment where no one of importance would blink twice if you died. He was surrounded by meaningless death. Indeed his entire early life is defined by that lack of care.

Meng Shi dies and no one cares. Meng Yao gets thrown off a flight off stairs and no one cares. He has to be the one to do the caring, and once he's gone no one else will do it for him.

So he has to live.

Jin Guangyao eventually gets far enough that he actually does aquire the power to change some things... as long as he's alive. If he changes too much, holds on too tightly to his ideals, he'll die and it'll all be for nothing. He can't sacrifice himself for his goals because doing so would immediately render those goals unobtainable. No one will care about what he tried to do. He won't be a heroic sacrifice, he'll just be trash that finally cleaned itself up.

And well... Nie Mingjue dies, and someone makes it mean something. Makes it mean so much that the entire story of mdzs would not exist without it. Jin Guangyao dies and it doesn't mean anything. Most people are glad to be rid of him, and the few that are not don't do anything to change that.

[trashyshrew]

would love to see beyond birthday napping or relaxing or something! i don’t think i’ve seen your take on him before

thanks! hope the above is acceptable!

[knockknockitsnickels]

I think this is one of my favorite lines from the Wraith route because of (imo) how much the meaning changes depending on if you got there via Spectre or Nightmare. For Spectre, it honestly strikes me as a genuine question. Why are you doing this to her? If you're on the Spectre route, you presumably already know the Narrator can't really be trusted, since you had to reject his reward to get here. What are you hoping to gain from continuing to hurt her? For Nightmare, it honestly just makes me sad. As the Shifting Mound describes her, "She desires only companionship, but the only thing she knows is how to hurt." This line feels like a plea from someone who genuinely doesn't understand why you keep rejecting her. She wants to be with you, but she just can't understand how to do that in a way which doesn't hurt you.

[sad-scarred-sassy]

Try not to stare challenge: level impossible

Lucien being his usual providing self and chopping some wood for them, while Elain is very busy trying not to lose it.

[loveridden1999]

repeat after me: ai p*rn/nudes of anyone is disgusting, gross and vile and illegal thing to do. this shouldn't happen in the first place. it does not matter if you hate the person or how privileged or popular they are, this shouldn't happen to anyone.

[elodieunderglass]

[helianthus21]

jokes about his torture kink aside, Daniel was a victim of these vampires for 6 nights in '73 and he would've, y'know, preferred not to have to go thru that, BUT there was something that distinguished him from those other 128 victims, and it's the same thing that made 70yo wiser, informed-about-vampires Daniel walk into that penthouse even after Louis had already torn his throat open once before. he wants The Story and he wants to get out alive to tell it, and his hunger for the story may even be a little bit bigger than his will to survive. if you told 20yo Daniel what would happen if he went home with that handsome stranger he met at Polynesian Mary's and gave him the choice to walk away, I 100% believe he would choose to go with Louis again. bc he's just Like That.

[ghostboidanny]

In a dpxdc demon twins AU, I think Damian would be Pissed that Danny's ghost name is Phantom = Fenton, when he could have gone with Ghoul = al Ghul

Danny Ghoul is so much better and cooler than Phantom! Absolutely no other reason for his anger!

[edorazzi]

I almost forgot it was Sunday, eek! 😱

Page 20 of my Miraculous Mentor AU comic A Matter of Trust! In which Adrien comes to terms with the past Ladybug and Chat Noir despising each other, but has questions about Felix's strange loyalty to the Miraculous! 👀💍

Index | Start | Prev | Next

Weekly updates each Sunday! You can also read ahead early on Patreon, and/or buy me a Ko-fi if you'd like to support my work! 💖

[chronicowboy]

Eddie isn't entirely sure how he ends up on Tommy's doorstep. One minute, he's stuffed into the corner of his couch, staring at the two empty cushions beside him, trying to will joy out of thin air. The next, he's grabbing his keys and knocking on a familiar door. But it's not too familiar a door. It's not the right door, he thinks. It should be Buck's door. But this feels safer somehow.

Buck's door is joy. Buck's door opens into a room filled with sunlight. Buck's door is a portal to all the good things Eddie has never found himself worthy of. He's still learning to trust the good things, joy. And whilst he trusts Buck implicitly, intimately, instinctually. He still doesn't quite trust himself.

Tommy's door is... Well, Tommy's door often opens on casual camaraderie. Tommy's door mainly leads to the sparring mat in the garage. Tommy's door is just a door. Eddie doesn't know if he's there to see it open or seal it shut.

It's been a week since. Since Eddie had danced around in his house in a pair of tighty whiteys he'd forgotten he'd owned. Since an intoxicatingly simple joy had buzzed through his veins and filled him with a glowing pink light that had almost burst out of him when he'd looked through the peephole. Since Buck had offered him a beer and stuffed himself into the corner of the couch to drink in stony silence between sniffles. Since Eddie had resisted the urge to make himself small and had instead spread his legs, so he could feel the warmth of Buck's knee burning into his bare thigh. Since both of them getting drunk enough on beers and each other that they'd danced around Eddie's house until they collapsed on the living room floor. Since they'd laid there on the carpet, staring up at the ceiling, and Buck had finally mumbled his way through a recital of his breakup.

It's been a week of Eddie biting down on his reflexive guilt at seeking out joy whilst Buck wallows in despair. Of Eddie plastering himself to Buck in every spare moment because, even when he's down in the dumps, he gives off joy like a spaceheater throws out heat. Of Eddie allowing himself to bask in it without the whispering warning voices in his mind for the first time ever. Of Eddie allowing himself the simple pleasure of Buck without fear of ruining him.

Eddie startles a little when the door opens, but it's alright because Tommy startles too. His whole face stretches in shock then scrunches up with a wry little laugh and a shake of his head.

"Guess I probably should have expected this, huh?" he says.

And Eddie thinks that's odd. Hadn't expected it himself. Doesn't know why he's here. Doesn't know what he's going to say. But he opens his mouth anyway, lets whatever is in his throat claw its way out, and what he says is,

"Buck is worth the risk."

Tommy blinks. Eddie blinks back.

Something pools in his chest. Something warm. Something hot. It's the warmth of Buck's knee against his thigh and the heat of boiling anger. It's scorching. Eddie can't tell which one burns worse.

"Okay," Tommy replies evenly.

"Buck said that you said you couldn't move in with him because he'd break your heart."

"I did."

"He's worth that risk," Eddie repeats. Doesn't know how else to say it. "Don't you get it? He-he's so smart and passionate and kind and full of love. His head gets a little messy sometimes, but he's still so so full of love. Why can't you see that? He's beautiful inside and out. And he's worth the risk. You can't not take the risk with Buck. He's worth a hundred broken hearts, don't you get that?"

Eddie's chest heaves. A thousand more words crowd his mouth, but he can't wrap his lips around any of them. His brain is flying a mile a minute, everything slipping through his fingers just when he thinks he's grabbed a hold of it. And Tommy is just staring at him in that slightly disconcertingly blank way he stares.

"Eddie, I think maybe you should try giving that speech to a mirror." His voice is still even, but there's an edge to these words that makes something in Eddie sing, makes him want to press against it until it draws blood.

"What?"

"I think you think Buck's worth a hundred broken hearts because you and him have been breaking each other's over and over for the past six years."

Eddie flinches.

"What? I would never—"

"Just because you didn't mean to doesn't mean you didn't." Tommy sighs and drags a hand down his face. All the defensiveness melts out of his posture as he leans against the doorframe. "Okay, let's talk about me, yeah? You wanna know why I didn't take the risk with Buck?"

It's a rhetorical question. Still, Eddie says, "yes."

"Because." He shrugs. "Six days, six weeks, six months, six years. He'd never mean to, but. He was always going to break my heart, Eddie. And he was always going to break it for you."

There had been this moment when he'd first sat down in the confessional between the click of the door closing and Father Brian's greeting where the whole world had seemed to fall silent. It was a crushing thing. In that moment, twenty-three years of sins had fallen upon him like a helicopter. It was as if the booth itself was trying to swallow him whole. Now, Eddie feels it again. Feels it so vividly he almost thinks he's back in that stifling little wooden box. Feels it like a whole new confession, unforgivable and yet inevitable.

"And you were always going to let him, right?" Tommy doesn't even leave room for an answer. Just nods to himself. "You can be angry with me if you want. I hurt him, I know that. But I took the risk when I started this. The writing was on the wall from the beginning. I knew I was living on borrowed time, but... Well, I don't have to explain to you why he was worth it, do I?"

"W-what do you—"

"God, Diaz," he groans, and presses his forehead against the edge of the door. "He was never trying to get my attention. Jesus. He spent that whole game pulling your pigtails."

"No, he was jealous of—"

"Of me because I had your attention." Tommy shakes his head. "I'm not doing this. I can't. Please leave."

And well, Eddie's never needed all that much of a nudge when it comes to running away. He's halfway to his truck when Tommy's voice stops him in his tracks.

"Hey, Eddie?"

"Yeah?" He turns, watches something complicated break across Tommy's face.

"He's worth the risk."

The door closes. Another opens.

[notannascribbles]

I will like actually never get over the choice to have marinette break adrien's rings in werepapas. without trying any other options. without any hesitation except for a slight look of concern on her face. and seeing her visually express concern/relief communicates to us that she knew there was a risk of her hurting/killing adrien there. and she just. did it anyway? without even trying to help millie break the akumatization herself? makes it hard for me to even like. understand marinette's characterization at all. she's committed to doing All This out of love for adrien but is also willing to quickly gamble his life in a situation with no other clear path forward? this decision, from the girl whose defining character traits are love, creativity, intelligence, and determination? she couldn't think of a way to navigate that situation that didn't involve risking her boyfriend's existence? most baffling writing choice of all time. borderline character assassination. to me.