2020iagcroptour

[2020iagcroptour]

Final Thoughts –

This year’s takeaways from the tour are:

1) a lack of moisture was prevalent for almost the entire trip leading us to believe that we could be leaving potential corn and soybean production out in the field. The ‘big’ crops we were talking about at the beginning of August have indeed been pulled back. While crop maturity is what we would call generally ahead of normal, there is still time to help final corn filling and beans can do very well with better finishing weather in the first half of September.

2) The damage in Iowa is extensive. Downed fields in the hardest hit areas are total write offs. Without the results of the September survey from the USDA that will feature a new harvested acre number for Iowa, estimating the damage is an exercise in futility. In the coming weeks, we will start hearing how the insurance adjusters will handle this and I expect a wide variety of policies.

3) There is an even bigger number of acres in Iowa that have been ‘wind kissed’. The bulk of these fields should be harvestable (albeit probably a nightmare for the guy running the combine) and likely with some sort of production haircut…mostly 5%-10%.

4) The soybean crop is in fairly good shape including the fields that were affected by the derecho in Iowa. On average, pods were about half filled and the yield will depend on finishing weather in early September.

Obviously, as data folks we look at our sample size with disdain so how can we use the data we collected to our advantage? We looked at our previous samples against the USDA August and Final estimates and found an interesting pattern. Our samples do tend to show the direction of the change to the final yields. As for a final yield estimates, we have crunched our figures and have come up with the following:

Iowa – As I have noted below (read Day 2), I have very little confidence in a yield guess for Iowa. Our average Iowa corn field was estimated at 203 bushels per acre (bpa) which is down from last year’s sample and gives no significant direction from the USDA Aug figure. We are going to take about 10% off to account for wind damage to fields plus ongoing dry concerns (especially for some western parts of the state) and come in at 185 bpa. Keep in mind that fields that are total devastation will not be counted as harvested acres and will not factor into yield.

Illinois – Our average field in Illinois was 225 bpa which far outpaces the USDA Aug estimate of 207 bpa. With this in mind, we are going to leave the USDA estimate for Illinois at 207 bpa. This is a combination of an even better than expected crop but some taken off for the dry August and slight wind damage near The River.

Indiana – Our figures were relatively unchanged from the USDA, so we are going to leave the USDA estimate of 195 bpa alone.

Minnesota – Conditions in Minnesota continue to improve and even some of the moisture stressed areas have solid potential. It even rained there over the weekend which is exactly what it needs today. 200 bpa

 Plugging these figures into our yield calculator (you can find it on the app store here, iphone or ipad only), our final estimate comes in at 179 bpa. There is also the unharvested acreage in Iowa that has to be accounted for. We suspect as much as 900k to 1.5 million acres are not going to be harvested which equates to another 180 to 280 million bushels of loss. Best guess is about 200 million bushels. Combined with the loss in yield in Iowa, we suspect the total production loss from the storm could be close to 400 to 450 million bushels which is higher than we suspected before the trip. Taking this all into account, we are looking at a 2.5 billion bushel carry out today vs a 2.8 billion bushel figure in August from the USDA.

As for soybeans, we cannot stress how critical the weather in early September will be for this bean crop. If it rains across the heart of the Corn Belt, a national yield of 52+ bpa is possible. If not, a yield closer to 50 bpa or maybe even under would be more appropriate.

[2020iagcroptour]

Day 4 Wrap Up

With well over 2,000 miles under our belts over the course of 96 hours, we wrapped the 2020 IAG Crop Tour late Thursday night. Tomorrow, we will crunch all the data and put together a synopsis. Until then, we will just cover what we saw today.

Starting in Waterloo, Iowa we headed south and straight out of the gate we ran into another swath of wiped out corn fields. I have never seen such widespread devastation of not just corn fields, but grain bins, homes, cars, and trees. The scope of that damage is still difficult to grasp. Just driving the region, you can smell the downed corn (just so you know, it smells like fermenting silage). We do know that there is a incredible quantity of corn that is now maturing either on or close to the ground that we have no idea how to handle. Many of these decisions will be made with the help of insurance adjusters and we just don’t know what these policies will be yet. We were able to at least partially prove our theory that bean fields in the affected area could have survived without much yield loss.

Along the i-80 corridor and over the Great Mississippi, there was still wind damaged corn fields but we suspect the vast majority of these acres will be harvestable with perhaps some minor losses. Moving back into Illinois and the Eastern Corn Belt, we were back to seeing solid corn and decent to above average bean samples.

That’s all for tonight. Much to process and I look forward to putting it all together. This is the IAG 2020 Crop Tour, signing off. Until next year!

[2020iagcroptour]

Fulton, MI

Our Fulton, MI stop found us running out of daylight, standing.in a bean field next to a field of corn with every fifth row missing.... not knowing what that was all about, we decided to examine the soybeans. Although there was limited light, we could tell the 15" row planted field was at 140k and 42" tall. The two plants selected had 44 and 66 pods and 16 and 24 nodes respectively. Pods were very full with a few leaves beginning to turn. At this population, pod count and maturity our estimate is 60 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

LaPorte, IN

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

Our Laporte, IN soybean field was in 15" rows and plante at 100K population, produced a mini Christmas tree Kaiden with pods, a whopping 128 pods on48 nodes. We estimated that a third of the pods may be aborted as this late in the season with no bean present. Our second sample was an average plant with 38 pods and 17 nodes. These beans were planted later than anything we have seen this trip. They have a long way to go, a lot of pods to fill and it is late August. Estimated yield - 50 bpa

[2020iagcroptour]

LaPorte, IN

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

After spending too much time going taround the windy city and after running into our first rain cloud our stop in LaPorte, IN proved to be impressive. Ears at eye level and stalks reaching for the sky. We expect the farmer seeded 35K, populations in our sample wer 31,33, and 34K, which suggests the farmer is pushing populations for this region on non-irrigated ground. Looking at the ears and the aggressive tip back suggests the populations might be too high for this field and conditions. Kernels are in early dent, evidence of moisture stress with noticeable aborted kerels beyond tip back. Overall, a better than average crop for the region. Estimated yield using 85K - 205 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Dekalb, IL

[2020iagcroptour]

Dekalb, IL

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

Our Dekalb, IL bean field should be turned in the next couple of weeks. Heavily podded at 64 and 65 pods apiece, estimated population of 125K with an initial drop of 140K. Pods are mostly filled although another rain would definitely help, but soon. Estimated yield - 70 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Dekalb, IL

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

Our traditional visit in Dekalb, IL may have helped verify some of our theories we have had on this trip. The field we checked this year had a bit of a stand issue with populations from 28-33K. This variance, talking to the farm manager, could likely be due to cold weather after planting. This may have also effected ear size, although this also could be due to the hybrid chosen. Kernels were dented and very close to black layer with half of the ears shanked over. Our yield estimate - 205 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Lyndon, IL

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

Our Lyndon, IL soybeans in this field are in 30" rows, 39" tall and at 175K population. With above average pod set of 40-56 and nodes of 17 and 25 respectively. This field is starting to turn and in those areas pods are shuttting down and turning brown. This is row specific, due to a variety change or planting date. Some areas in the field are showing signs of moisture stress, turning lighter green. All things considered, this is a very nice Illinios bean field. Our estimate - 65+ bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Lyndon, IL

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

Our sample corn field in Lyndon, IL had evidence of wind damage from our initial drone footaage. We entered the field and verified ur findings but again, we considered the field to be nearly100% harvestable. Ears had an average of less than 16 around but 40 long, with a poulation of 32K. The kernels were fully dented, just beginning to black layer with good depth. Good stands with very few skips and good kernel depth lead us to a higher end of the range for yield. Our estimate - 230 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

West Branch, IA

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields

Diectly across from our sampled corn field, we find a soybean field, yet again, not affected by the wind. Soil conditions were on the dry side and they could use a little more moisture. The pods were 3/4 full and the plants had a slightly above average pod set at 50, with even population of 200K in 30" rows. These factors are the reason our estimate is 75 bpa, our largest estimate yet.

[2020iagcroptour]

West Branch, IA

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields

East of Iowa City our sample field in West Branch continued to deal with issues from high winds. Unlike the waistland south of Waterloo, the bulk of the field is still harvestable. Initial populations of 32-33K, harvestable ears counts ranged from 17-27K per acre. Excellent ear size and density lend to this fields initial potential. Taking into consideration the wind damage loss, this 250+ bpa field, in our sample area, will produce 180 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Belle Plain,

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields

We spent part of our morning driving though south from Waterloo to I-80. For a 20-25 mile stretch, we drove through the Eastern swath of wind damaged fields in Iowa. We got the impression that there is more damage to structures in Eastern Iowa. For the bulk of the 25 mile stretch, most of those fields would be considered total loses. We took the opportunity to stopped at conjoining corn and soybean fields to test our theory that the soybean fields came though mostly unharmed. Drone footage proved the total devastation in the corn field but the relative good health of the soybean field. In the beans, we noted some slight damage to the upper most leaves but will not have an effect on yield.

[2020iagcroptour]

Traer, IA

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

In Traer, IA, our soybean field was in 30" rows, 32" tall with a pod /node average just less that 3. At 120K population the stand was even and even though the soil moisture was not the greatest, all pods are mostly filled. All in all, a nice looking Iowa soybean field. Yield estimate - 60 bpa

Keep in mind this soybean field is directly next to the corn field we sampled, which had sustained some win damage.

[2020iagcroptour]

Traer, IA

#croptour #cornyields #soybeanyields.

When the sun came up over Traer, IA we found a corn field with a little bit of wind damage. After further examination we believe that 100% can be harvested even though upward of 25% was sitting at an angle of 65-70 degrees. Strongest populations yet with an average population of 34K. Ear sizes were all over the board a beeing 14-20 around by 27-35 long. Ear weight lighter was than what we have seen, so we have decided to use 90K/bushel for kernel count. Our estimate - 205 bpa.

[2020iagcroptour]

Day 3 Wrap Up

We started our morning in Boone, IA waiting for the sun to rise over our first crop stop. Our route took us first as far west as Sac City, IA where we continued to try and comprehend what the windstorm on Aug 10 did to the corn crop. We did note some bean damage but only in fields affected by both wind and hail. We then turned north, through Spencer, IA and into Minnesota. Reached our most northwestern point of the trip in the early afternoon. The rest of the day we spent heading east through Minnesota and back into northeastern Iowa. Another 450 miles and 7 crop stops…

When asked what we saw today the most common denominator was a lack of moisture causing a haircut to yields. This was especially true in western Iowa. It was less of a problem as we traveled across Minnesota and we suspect crops even further north faired even better. We are still yet to use any of our creative solutions to managing mud. We have started having a conversation about test weight concerns with this year’s finishing weather. Especially because of the advanced state of the corn crop.

Tomorrow, we will start again crossing what we suspect is another heavily wind damage region as we travel from Waterloo to Davenport in Iowa. After that, we are interested in seeing northern Illinois which has been drier of late than the central areas we have already sampled.

We wish those along the Louisiana and Texas coast safe harbor. Until tomorrow, this is the IAG Crop Tour signing off!

[2020iagcroptour]

Blue Earth, MN