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Disventure Camp All Stars Power Ranking (Round 7)

Alright, time for another power ranking... in space? Looks like it's going to be all stars for our All Stars. There, now if they don't make that joke in the episode, I've made it for them.

In case you haven't seen my previous power rankings ( 5 | 6 ), the Power Ranking Format is essentially a way of ranking how well each player is doing in the game. So, in essence, this is a long form way of predicting who I think will be eliminated from the competition in the next episode. There will be spoilers for last week's episode (obviously) and its power ranking, so make sure to read that first if you don't want to be spoiled on how I ranked our last boot. If you want more clarification on the rules, that first post will help you out as well. Furthermore, I'm going to be spoiling the preview for next episode, so if you want to go in TOTALLY blind, save this for later. Let's go!

Recap - Fiore's Elimination

Current Point Total: 18 acquired/29 possible

So. That was sad.

And I mean that purely from a point of my personal enjoyment, not a critique of the writing. I feel like I've seen some people claim that Fiore's elimination was a bad move writing-wise, and while I respect their opinion, I can't say I entirely agree. I still think that believing Fiore could be this season's winner wasn't a completely ridiculous idea-- the main reason why I thought that could be the case is because she was framed as sympathetic as compared to Hunter, as opposed to in S1 where she was a full villain. I still think that Ashley's attitude regarding Fiore is... a bit misguided, given that the only "revenge" she has to get on Fiore is for Fiore outsmarting her in the game of smarts.

However, in retrospect, even if Fiore reunited with Alec, I'm not really sure what she would be doing for the rest of the season that wouldn't just be a total retread of her prior content. If Fiore and Alec quickly regrouped and became allies again, then they would play the rest of the contestants in the exact same way they did in S1. If they didn't regroup, or even did on only tentative terms, then they wouldn't have the numbers, and Fiore likely would have been eliminated shortly anyways. Knowing what I know now, Fiore seems like one of those characters who has the edit to be the winner, but not the actual social standings to make it that far. I will still absolutely miss my favorite character, but she already got her chance to shine in S1, and I can always rewatch that if I want to see her dominate again.

As for my predictions... well, I'm really talented at putting the boot in 9th place, huh? I mean, it gets closer and closer to accurate every time, so I can't really complain. What's interesting to me is that what I did correctly totally flipped between Connor and Fiore. For Connor, I was correct in assessing that Yellow had bad vibes, but did a terrible job determining who on Yellow would get axed. For Fiore, I was totally wrong in predicting a Cyan tribal, but at least I managed to determine which member of Magenta would go home if they did face elimination. Hopefully next time, I'll be able to synthesize the good points as opposed to tripping into both of my pitfalls. Although, I'm a little worried...

Trailer Analysis

... Because, what the hell is this preview? Don't get me wrong: the episode looks really fun, and I'm super excited for it! But, in terms of content, I'm having a hard time discerning anything of note. Let's see what we can get out of this trailer.

So, obvious starting point; this episode is space themed. I'm guessing that the teams all have to race to these escape pods, completing challenges along the way. The outfits look great, and I'm very impressed by the number of outfits per character they're introducing this season. Keeping their 2D riggers in business, I suppose...? The outfits seem to be at least somewhat inspired by Star Trek, although, I think there's actually a bigger inspiration behind this episode that I haven't personally seen anyone else mention yet...

This episode seems to be really inspired by Among Us??? I only played the game, like, once, so I could be totally off. But, there appear to be many, many challenges that mirror Among Us' minigames. Here's Ally swiping a card...

Here's a door quite similar to the doors in... at least some maps? (Tom is holding a tablet, which we also see Ally and Jake fighting over, that may report each team's tasks).

There are multiple scenes depicting what appear to be a power outage, which is something that happens periodically in the game. Jake is fixing it, just like a crewmate would(?).

I think that you usually fix wires instead of cutting them in Among Us, but the similarity still stands. This is the Among Us episode. If the eliminated character gets fucking ejected I swear to god--

This arcade setting intrigues me because, as far as I know, arcades are common to neither Among Us or Star Trek. That could mean that this arcade was placed here for a highly specific Disventure Camp reason. Is it here to distract Ally? Can players flunk the challenge to find an advantage within the machines? Or are there just particular tasks/games that they wanted to throw in this episode that needed to be at an arcade?

The fact that we see Derek but NOT Trevor in this trailer intrigues me. It's quite possible that Trevor was fully left behind on Earth, and Krystal only recruited Derek for this space mission. Talk about being worlds apart.

Aiden and Jake will have a chat, albeit possibly only briefly. Were they separated from their teams by something? It looks like Jake might be trying to make amends (given that, if Tom "has a boyfriend," Tom definitely isn't into Aiden either), but Aiden is still hesitant to believe in/work with him. Notably, this is during the power outage.

Tom reads from a piece of paper in the arcade, which could fit with the idea that there's some special game/challenge that can only be completed in the arcade. I don't even want to know what Ellie would do with a totem at this point (/pos).

Like I alluded to earlier, Ally and Jake are definitely fighting in this episode. I'll talk more about my theories on that in both of their sections (and probably Ashley's as well).

These two continue to be iconic. I'm SO here for it, honestly.

"I knew it... I knew it! We're all gonna die...!"

Back to Among Us for a moment, one major aspect of that game is the Imposter; the traitor hidden amongst the cast trying to kill them all. Aiden's quote here could easily be in regards to a role like that existing within DC. Then again, I really have no idea how they would implement that. Would the Imposter be one of the contestants, and, if so, does that person get any additional advantages or protections in tribal? If that is the case, then I guess I'd predict that Grett or Ellie might be the Imposter, just because we didn't see a whole lot of them in the trailer. Or, could the Imposter be someone more like Trevor or Nina? That would make more sense from a fairness angle, but neither of them could really pretend to be a contestant and get away with it, as far as I'm aware.

Another really interesting thing about this preview is that, as far as I can tell, every single scene comes from the challenge. If the losing team does stick around on the ship to eject someone, then it's possible that some scenes are sneakily from after the challenge has ended. Still, there's not a single shot of camp. I wouldn't be surprised if the episode cold opens on the challenge, with the campers "waking up" on the spaceship and having no idea how they got there. At the very least, the challenge is going to take up a HUGE chunk of the episode.

The fact that we can't really tell what's part of the challenge and what's not makes it really hard to tell which team would wind up losing, and, to an extent, which relationships are going to receive particular focus. Even though I was wrong last time, I at least thought I had a leading theory on which team could lose the ball challenge. This trailer gives me no inclinations as to whether Cyan, Magenta, or Yellow is headed to tribal. Therefore, a lot of my analysis will likely be based off of who I think is most likely to make it to the merge, with that based on what story lines they have to expand upon in a merged setting. We have to be merging pretty soon, right...?

This will be a challenge. I'll try my best!

Power Ranking

#1: Ashley

In my mind, Ashley is 100% safe in this upcoming episode. I’ve already said that I think Ashley will make the merge this time, and I still believe that’s true. For Ashley to even be viable for elimination, Magenta would have to cut themselves down to TWO PEOPLE, which seems pretty unlikely on the writers' end. And, even if they did, with the way that the preview shows Jake and Ally, I find it really difficult to believe that the two of them would suddenly work together to eliminate the person that both of them feel closer to. More likely, in a Magenta tribal, it would come down to who Ashley feels more comfortable moving forward with… and Ashley obviously feels comfortable working with herself. No riding off into the sunset yet.

#2: Alec

Pretty much everything I said last week about Alec still holds true this week, because the Yellow tribe’s dynamics didn’t change much between this week and the last. If anything, Alec’s situation possibly got getter, because 1) he proved that he’s useful in challenges, and 2) he grew closer to Riya, to the point that she’s more of a genuine ally than just “not already in a pair.” I guess those strengths could also be reasons to target him, but now that Riya probably prefers Alec to Grett and Yul, the trio turning on him feels even more unrealistic.

#3: Tom

Tom really just keeps ping-ponging across my list, doesn’t he? Well, this time his move is motivated by the spicy content revealed in last week’s episode. Tom has a boyfriend! … Or, more likely, he doesn’t. In either case, wouldn’t it would be sort of weird to have him sent home without ANY further development on that plot line?

Okay, fine, that’s not entirely fair. Tom explaining why he ignored Jake throughout this game so far could theoretically be his swan song before clearing the stage for Jake and Aiden to have beef without him. However, I’m, like, 99% sure that Tom made up that boyfriend on the spot, and if THAT’S the case, it would be weird for him to go home without ever facing the consequences of his actions, whether or not Jake is there with him.

Tom also lost the whole “regretful, I’m going to ask to be sent home because I feel so badly about how I treated Jake these past few years” angle that I thought he might’ve had last episode. That puts Tom back in a safer spot for as long as he has Aiden as a shield. I don’t think he’s going home anymore, so he’s here.

#4: Tess

There’s still a possibility that Tess could get caught in the “indecision results in elimination” sinkhole, but now that Tess knows that Ellie is part of the villains alliance (and didn’t tell her), I have a hard time believing that the choice would be so impossible for her. The thing that was swaying her towards Ellie's side was not wanting to ruin her outside-of-game friendship with Ellie, so if she believes that Ellie is backtracking on that already, she'd be less likely to remain loyal.

Furthermore, her little moment with Ally last episode could be considered enough content for a justified elimination, but... was it, really? They talked for, like, thirty seconds, and not even about themselves. Now that Hunter has been eliminated, All Stars is wide open with opportunities for Tess and Ally to bond without their relationship hinging around Hunter. Their one conversation so far has still mostly been about Hunter, so eliminating Tess here would sadly close that door. Losing Ally would obviously close that door too, but... uh...

#5: Ally

Here’s my declaration that, in case of a Magenta tribal, I think that Ashley would very likely flip on Jake to work with Ally.

The preview seems to foreshadow Jake acting pretty childishly next episode. He’s bickering with Ally, presumably still over who is Ashley’s closest comrade. (If the episode starts with everyone waking up in space, I wonder if Ashley and Jake won’t get to have their conversation before the challenge begins.) Given all of the allusions to Among Us, I would really suspect that Ally is going to be an MVP of this particular challenge. Therefore, if the team loses, it would be a direct result of Jake’s insecurities dragging their team down. That kind of behavior, in my opinion, could sway Ashley’s mind.

Ally’s elimination here continues to feel pretty random to me. I know I was wrong when I claimed that Connor wouldn’t go home from the Yellow team because his elimination would be too clear cut… but Ally still feels the same way to me now! It's hard to get around that assumption! Aaaaaaaa!

#6: Grett

Placing Grett ANYWHERE feels bad to me, because, in my opinion, there are mildly compelling reasons for her character to stay or go.

First, my reasons why I think Grett could be eliminated. Mostly, there's just a part of me that feels like she's the most expendable member of the Yellow Team left. Alec, Riya, and Yul still seem like they all have Big Villain Things left to do, and as the least villainous of the quartet, there might not be room for Grett moving forward. As I said before, I can better imagine Yul's character without Grett than Grett's character without Yul.

There are also some other oddities I've been noticing as I've retreaded s1 via Silly Billy's interviews. Grett and Gabby's relationship was, like, really important to S1, and it left off on kind of a bad note. Presumably, if the two of them were ever put onto the same (merged) tribe again, they'd have some sort of notable reaction to each other. But, to my memory, Grett and Gabby haven't interacted this season at all. Are they just saving any turbulence the two of them might have for once they actually hit the same beach? Or does the fact that no Gabby/Grett plotline has been set up imply that they never will have any notable content together?

On the other hand, there are my reasons why I think Grett would stay. Although I do think that a Grett-less Yul still makes more sense, I do think that the particular situation that Grett is in right now could lead to a more interesting predicament for her. After axing Connor, the Yellow Team is comprised only of villains. That means, if they have to vote someone out, the villains' alliance will have to cannibalize one of their own. If Grett does turn the tide of the vote against Yul, she would be in a really interesting position with the rest of the villains. She's kind of turned against them by voting out her own boyfriend, but it would only be with their consent that he was taken down in the first place. In a merge scenario, does she explore alliances with potentially hostile outsiders, or does she stick with the treacherous villain's alliance?

The bigger thing is that I just don't really think that there are the numbers for a Grett elimination right now. Yul had way more of a chance of throwing votes on Grett when 1) Connor could be down to vote for anyone who wasn't him, and 2) he could appeal to any desire Alec and/or Riya had to save Connor to sway their votes. Now... why the hell would Alec and Riya decide that they want to work with Yul over Grett? Other than "entertainment," anyways. Now that the target on S1 girls' backs has shrunk a little, I feel better about Grett's longevity. But, I still don't feel confident either way, so she winds up in the top half... barely.

#7: Riya

Riya, too, could go both ways. Her newfound friendship/alliance with Alec implies some further content for her. However, Riya did get a lot of time to "shine" (subject to viewer opinion) in S2, so her run could be coming to a close soon. Her selfish attitude certainly hasn't changed, so if something happened to make Alec grow sick of her, the other three could unite against her.

Something that I think gives Riya the edge over Grett, at least, is that she does have a relationship with someone on another tribe that could be expanded upon later: Aiden. In the first episode of All Stars, Aiden and Riya fight, and she shoves him off the plane. That easily could just be for laughs, or to show off a rivalry that's too potent to sweep under the rug, but it could also be setup for the pair clashing once again in All Stars.

But, in the end, I think a Yellow vote would come down to the Alec/Riya and Yul/Grett pairs clashing, with Riya and Yul on the chopping block for elimination due to being the looser cannons. So, between Riya and Grett, I put Riya lower.

#8: Yul

As you can see, I had a really hard time distinguishing between Riya and Yul. Grett, too— all of them have somewhat compelling reasons for being kicked out, but nothing so concrete that it makes me say, “now THAT’S the next boot.” I just have to hope that Yellow isn’t going to tribal next, which… I think will be the case? Maybe? Who knows.

While I do think that Yul will be a major villain of the season, there’s still a decent change that that role will be reserved for solely Alec, Ellie, or both of them. The rule of threes could come back to bite Yul if, now that he’s used the earpiece twice, the third time leads to his elimination. And, he is really unliked, so I would understand why the other villains would choose to eliminate him.

One interesting possibility I thought of would be if Alec and Riya and Grett and Yul refuse to turn on each other, resulting in a tie vote. Yul was involved in a tie vote in S2, where he beat Maggy in rock paper scissors to stay in the game. It would be kind of poetic if Yul was thrown into a tiebreaker again, and lost this time. That’s why I put him below Riya. But, on the whole, I don’t THINK Yul is going home. Probably…? This power ranking is a mess.

#9: Jake

My lowest non-Cyan entry. I suppose that, despite all the fussing, I’m still thinking that their large group must be the next to cut a number. But we’re not here to talk about Cyan, we’re here to talk about Magenta! And Jake, who could be doing something… troublesome in the next episode.

Despite the leaps and bounds he’s been making in the communication department (which I’m honestly so proud of him for), Jake’s biggest flaw still is and will be his jealousy and insecurity. It’s what put him in hot water with Aiden, it’s quite possibly what drew Tom away from him in the first place, and it’s what’s causing him now to want to fight with Ally for Ashley’s affections. If, as I said before, his flaws are directly causing the team to lose, he might get cut.

Granted, it would be a little weird to cut Jake before he learns that Tom was lying (assuming Tom was). However, that COULD still be resolved at a later point with Jake either on the sidelines, fighting to get back into the competition, or in the fabled Loser's Motel episode (assuming Tom has been eliminated by that point as well). Because Aiden also heard Tom's lies, Tom can still suffer the consequences of his actions with Jake gone.

Despite all this, I think the season would be better with Jake's continued involvement in it, so I hope he doesn't go out next episode. The curse of the #9 slot is... just a superstition, right...?

#10: Ellie

Is this just because I’m salty that I put her in last twice and she still hasn’t gone home yet? Well, maybe a little bit. But also, the fact that she HASN’T been eliminated, and has continued to do more villainous things (especially towards Jake) each episode, has started to sway me to believe that she might be in it for a longer haul. Would they really need this much build up to justify Ellie as a pre-merge boot?

Because, like, they’re putting SO MUCH FOCUS into her being a villain. Her negative arc could get cut off now, but it would mean that all of that time spent showing her tormenting Jake specifically would have no bearings on her elimination, because Jake can't be involved in her vote right now.

I still think that Ellie will be eliminated on the sooner end, but I now kind of think that she might be the first boot after the merge. Then, everyone that Ellie has wronged (who is still in the competition) can band together to send her packing. That would also be even juicier on Gabby's end (assuming she is still in the competition), because it would hammer in that everyone is against her.

For Ellie to be eliminated as the merge boot, she has to survive this episode, which is why I moved her up a little from the bottom. However, I can still obviously see why Ellie could be eliminated now, so she doesn't stray too far from the bottom.

#11: Aiden

Surprised to see Aiden this low? Me too, kind of. The reason he's this low has to do with a specific scenario that I think could happen next episode, so bear with me as I get a bit more conspiratorial than usual in these power rankings.

So, the challenge is probably Among Us tasks, right? But, we saw the paper that Tom read in the arcade, which might be an advantage. So, something that I believe might happen next episode is that Ellie and Gabby will abandon their team to go advantage hunting in the arcade, and their lack of participation will cause the Cyan Team to lose. With Ellie clearly playing for herself, both in the villain's alliance and in the arcade, she's the obvious target. However, if Ellie manages to find an immunity totem, she could save herself. And, if she did, who would go home other than her biggest target, Aiden?

I really love Aiden as a comedic force in this season-- the way that he's just chilling and having fun despite all the drama always makes me laugh-- but he doesn't have a whole lot to do other than be an obstacle between Jake and Tom. I'm worried that the conversation with Jake as shown in the trailer could be a bad sign for him. Unlike Jake and Ally, Jake and Aiden weren't shown to be super hostile with one another, which means Aiden might hearing Jake out here. If he did, I could see Aiden feeling sympathy for Jake after hearing more of his side of the story, and some of the worse things that Tom has done. That could close their chapter of hostility while leaving Tom and Jake to now sort things out on their own.

Another thing that's made me feel more iffy about Aiden's chances was learning that the reason why James may have been eliminated early (and maybe not done Patreon reads) was just because his voice actor was super busy. If that's the case, then I'd really doubt that James would be coming back as a returning competitor, which would mean Aiden doesn't have that "shield" anymore. Furthermore, I hadn't really thought about what would happen after James and Aiden were back in the game together. Assuming they don't both make the final 3 again, one or both of them would need to be eliminated at some point. But, like, how? When? I think (and hope) that Odd Nation Cartoons wants to keep the Jaiden relationship sacred, which means that the two of them would kinda just be enjoying the competition together. That's really sweet, but it's 1) an in-universe threat to the other players, and 2) not that juicy for out-of-universe viewers. Honestly, I wouldn't be too surprised if they both got canned in a double elimination not long after James returned. But, is that really what they would want from their returning player?

I dunno, I'm probably thinking about this too hard in both directions. Aiden could still have a bright future ahead of him even if James doesn't return, and he could also be eliminated without all that totem nonsense if Tess simply chose to side with Gabby and Ellie. I think there's a definite possibility for a surprise Aiden boot, though, so he's a lowly sacrificial lamb. Even he thinks he's going to die, soooo...

#12: Gabby

I... really don't have a justification for this one in terms of game mechanics. It just feels like the right vibes to me? Gabby is the player that I can most easily see a merge without, so now she's at the bottom.

Like I said back at Grett, the fact that Grett and Gabby's relationship hasn't really been expanded upon could be bad for both of them. I'm once again back to thinking that the slight erasure of Gabby's more negative traits could be to make her a more well-liked unfortunate exit. I'd prefer it if the writers took her in more of the woman scorned direction, but, is that really going to happen...?

Returning to the totem scenario, I do think that has a chance to take out Gabby as well. If Gabby and Ellie made it really obvious that they found some sort of advantage (by being absent from completing tasks), Aiden, Tom, and Tess could secretly switch their vote to Gabby and make Ellie burn her idol on herself in a tribal where she gets to votes. It's the potential for that poetic cinema-- Gabby played her idol on Ellie to save her in S1, but Ellie doesn't play her idol on Gabby to save her in S2-- that makes me really like this possibility, unlikely as it may be. Similarly, I like how it eliminates Gabby, who thus far appears to be a less important character this season than Ellie, while still having the other three Team members intend to target the logical biggest threat. They just can't do it directly, in this scenario.

But, still, I don't like putting Gabby in last place just because of one kind of cool scenario I thought of, hinging on a totem that may or may not be in play. The thing is, I just have a hard time thinking that we're about to lose anyone at this point. Everyone feels so important!

And, honestly, this preview confused me so much that I could really see anyone Tess downward going home and not be too surprised about it. That's scary when it comes to making this ranking. I might take a point hit this week, but... maybe I also nailed it! I'm very excited to see where this episode takes us. Thanks for reading!

[accirax]

[accirax]

Elliot Cuevas Theory

Mostly an analysis of the Yoidore-Shirazu MV. I know I'm pretty late, but oh well.

Section 1: Who is Elliot Cuevas?

Elliot "Ellie" Cuevas is Charles' dead older brother who was mentioned in Charles' motive secret. His name was first mentioned in the Chapter 2 Part 1 QnA. The description of the Yoidore-Shirazu MV confirms that the character depicted is Elliot.

Although Elliot is dead, Charles did not know that he even had an older brother. This raises several questions; for example: Why didn't the Cuevas parents ever tell Charles about his dead brother?

Section 2: The Cuevas Parents + Charles

Charles’ parents clearly aren’t the best. They never taught Charles how to do laundry or cook.

Note his wording: "my parents didn't find it necessary." This implies that they had the time on their hands to teach Charles, but they simply didn't want to. Although this could be interpreted as overprotectiveness, I think it’s them being overbearing. 

Why?

Charles' personality is a pretty big clue to how his parents acted. Charles clearly has a low self esteem:

He very directly states, "Not stupid in the way I know you think I am." Charles is 100% sure that Whit thinks he's stupid.

Additionally, Charles says that he's "an object of mockery," which suggests that he's used to being looked down upon.

I think that this low self esteem comes from how his parents treated him; they forced Charles to devote all of his free time into studying and never allowed him to learn how to take care of himself. They probably never allowed Charles to choose his own path in life; instead, they imposed their own expectations onto him, shaping him to be an ideal, successful child.

Think of, like, stereotypical straight-A parents, who would punish Charles for getting a B+ on a test. This of course would lead to Charles feeling inferior and believing that he has to be perfect.

And this actually reflects how Charles acts in the prologue/chapter 1 daily life. He mocks Xander and Teruko for their talents, saying that they're undeserving of the "Ultimate" title because their talents aren't actual talents. He only respects those who have worked hard for their titles, because he himself had to work hard to be acknowledged by those around him (his parents).

So how does this relate to Elliot?

Section 3: About Elliot

I think Elliot was treated in the same way, being forced into a future his parents wanted, but he was unable to meet their expectations, and he was outcast from the family.

Elliot doesn’t have a good relationship with the rest of the family. For one, Charles didn’t even know about Elliot until it was revealed in his secret. His parents refused to tell him about his dead brother. Although this could be another case of the Cuevas parents being protective of Charles; for example, Elliot could have died protecting Charles and his parents didn’t want Charles to feel guilty. 

But the Cuevas parents didn’t lie to Charles about how his brother died. They lied to him about even having a brother in the first place.

Charles' parents have been lying to him for his entire life about Elliot.

A family that cared for Elliot wouldn’t lie about his existence. 

Therefore, I think that Elliot was cast out from his family—whether that be legally disowned or him simply running away from home—and was seen as a disappointment by his parents, who then refused to bring him up ever again.

"All of this bickering" could refer to the relationship between Elliot and his parents. It's probably not Charles, as Charles was a child at the time, and seems to have a positive memory of Elliot as Charles unconsciously styles his hair to look like his older brother.

Elliot was most likely pushed to become a chemist or something similar by his parents, but he was unable to handle the stress and responsibility. He dropped out/stopped studying, ruining the future his parents wanted for him. His parents kicked him out, and turned to Charles instead, pushing him even harder to the point of not teaching him basic life skills, to try and turn him into what Elliot failed to be.

Elliot is left with no home to turn to, and no future to look forward to.

But surprisingly, Elliot likes the freedom he's been given. He turns to smoking and drinking alcohol as a way to cope.

Saying that getting drunk isn't "half bad" and claiming that he's "living"; Elliot seems to be enjoying a life where he isn't being constantly pressured by his parents, even though he's (most likely) developed an addiction to alcohol and smoking. Which is why he

But obviously, things don't go to well... after all, from the main story, we know that Elliot is already dead.

Nice use of dramatic irony. Elliot continues to live a life of smoking and drinking, unaware that he's going to die.

Section 4: Elliot's Death

This section is basically all theorizing, as there's no super concrete evidence on how Elliot died. However, there is a pretty popular theory that I agree with:

Elliot died protecting Charles from a dog attack.

There's actually quite a bit of evidence for this one.

Firstly, Charles' fear of blood is heavily speculated to be from childhood trauma. Seeing Elliot die horribly as a child could be a possible cause.

Secondly, Charles hates dogs and has a dog bite scar on his arm, but thinks that it's a birthmark. This could be another case of his parents lying to him about how he got that scar, because it involves Elliot.

Additionally, Elliot and Charles seem to have a good relationship despite Elliot leaving the family. Aside from Charles' hairstyle, in the FTEs, Charles wants to make pancakes, which are Elliot's favorite food.

In the MV, this scene in particular also stands out to me:

I think "your" refers to Charles. Elliot is looking down, and he almost seems regretful. He probably regrets leaving Charles behind. Therefore, it makes sense that Elliot would protect Charles, despite the bad relationship with his parents.

Anyways, yeah, that's probably it for my analysis. I could write a better conclusion, but this isn't an essay or anything like that...

If I got anything wrong, feel free to correct me, or feel free to add onto this post! :)

[accirax]

well, this looks up my particular alley of clownery. too much analysis under the cut~

alright, so, the simple answer (in my opinion) is Haruka. he's weak, he's isolated, and his less than stellar mental state means that he probably wouldn't have the drive to turn the tables on his would-be attacker.

but, that's the problem, right? whether you think it's Haruka because he's unstable or Amane because she's a child or Kotoko because she'd make herself too big of a target, there's always the possibility that the person who should be the victim would actually be the blackened instead. unless turning the tables against their attacker would be basically impossible. who is their attacker, again?

i know you were probably trying to ask this question in a vacuum, but try as you may, the first victim is impossible to divorce from the first killer. because, you only become a victim if either you're trying to kill somebody or somebody is trying to kill you, y'know? so, i think the most prudent thing to do in this situation is to figure out who each prisoner would try to kill, see how it turns out, and then run some percentages. got it? let's go.

we know from Haruka's case that, when he kills, it's mainly been for attention. unfortunately, that doesn't give us any great leads on potential targets. Haruka has killed lots of bugs and small animals, which makes me tend to think that he would be looking for anyone who he thinks could be potentially weaker than him. maybe it's just the prevailing theory that his victim was likely a young girl, but i think Haruka might target Amane. even a child like himself should be able to take out another child, right...?

well, i definitely think there's a chance that he could, so i'm not going to say that Haruka successfully killing Amane is impossible. however, i do think that him becoming the first killer would be pretty unlikely, given that i can't think of any particuarly strong motivations for him. (i'm not counting motives that the mascot could hand out because that would be taking this thought exercise a little too far, even for me.) getting back to his mom, i guess...?

while Yuno's victim is most likely her own child, her choice of profession still shows off her killer instinct when it comes to social skills and manipulation. therefore, if Yuno were to be the first killer, i think she would choose a victim who she could easily manipulate into a winning situation, such as going somewhere at night with no witnesses. i think Mahiru is a likely candidate for this role.

i fully believe that Yuno could overpower Mahiru, though it could go the other way as well. i do not fully believe that Yuno would be the first killer. if Haruka had no reason, Yuno has, like, negative reason. she literally doesn't care. i'm not saying she'd enjoy the killing game, but i doubt she'd dislike it enough to put in the effort to get out.

Fuuta is a gamer, which makes me think he'd be thinking ahead to how the class trial would pan out (assuming he knows enough detail beforehand). in that case, i'm sure he'd love to take out Kotoko as probably the biggest intelligence threat, but i don't know if Fuuta would have the confidence to believe he'd win that fight. i also think he'd lean away from targeting any of the younger girls due to his guilt over killing that middle school girl. where does that leave us? Mahiru? Shidou, maybe? he's an intelligent doctor, and while he's a little physically intimidating, his willingness to die would leave him vulnerable (and maybe a little more guilt-free).

Fuuta would probably win the fight if Shidou didn't care, but if fight of flight kicked in, maybe Shidou would wind up defending himself. i definitely could see Fuuta's paranoia and rash behavior leading to him killing first. the question is just whether he'd be up for killing someone again after how he felt last time.

Muu is... tricky. she killed Rei on accident because the two of them were fighting. do i have to figure out how to recreate that situation? nah, danganronpa is different. if Muu were trying to be the blackened, i feel like her murder method of choice would be, like, manipulating somebody clueless into a trap, to get less evidence-creating blood onto her hands. if that were the case, then i could see her targeting Haruka, Mahiru, or Mikoto as a dolt contingent. i picked Mikoto specficially because i think that Haruka or Mahiru would have a greater chance of flipping out and doing something weird... or at least, that's what Muu would expect.

if Muu's trap is set up in a way where Mikoto is killed instantly, she could definitely gain the upper hand. however, in the wrong situation, she could also wind up accidentally setting John off on herself, which is a fight she'd definitely lose. i can't really make exact predictions without figuring out what Muu's murder plan would be, though. i don't really think she'd be the first killer, although doing it when she still has the reputation of being an innocent shy girl would probably be a good course of action if she did want to kill someday.

Shidou is a subtle, patient killer (i think) who definitely strikes me as the type to use poison as opposed to something more direct, like a gun or a knife. if that is the case, then all he needs is to find someone who consistently eats or drinks something that he could slip the poison into. i see no better candidate than Kazui for that role. Kazui has the additional benefits of being someone that people probably wouldn't expect for Shidou to kill, as well as potentially sending the other participants off down a rabbit hole of "who's strong enough to take out Kazui?"

if it is a poison kill, then i don't think Kazui really stands a chance. the best he could probably do is take Shidou down with him by killing Shidou before he dies. however, if we're basing Shidou's character off of his trial 1 self, then Shidou is coming in here with a death wish. what reason does he have to kill if he has no one to go home to outside?

As Mahiru's victim appears to be her so-called boyfriend, we can be fairly certain that her murder was, in one way or another, an accident. if Mahiru were killing on purpose, who would she go for? it would probably be whoever is convenient, AKA weak and/or alone. for the reasons i detailed at the top, Haruka seems like a likely candidate for his. he doesn't even seem like he cares that much about love.......

Mahiru could probably kill Haruka, although both of them are pretty weak. if Mahiru's boyfriend were still alive, then i could definitely see her becoming the first killer. however, i'm operating under the assumption that all of the prisoners are coming into the killing game having already committed their Milgram murder, meaning that bf is six feet under. if that's the case, i don't know if she would want to get back out to like... find love somewhere else, or something...? why was Mahiru so chipper in Trial 1 if her boyfriend just died, anyways?

Kazui obviously has the physical advantage over pretty much anyone, but he doesn't necessarily want to flex that so obviously. Kazui's Milgram murder circumstances are so specific that they're essentially impossible to replicate within the killing game with this cast. if he were going to kill someone... i feel like he would want to make it as quick and painless as possible? he could go for Shidou in that case, if Shidou were straight up asking for it.

if you couldn't tell, i'm struggling with Kazui because i really don't understand what his motive for murder would even be. it currently seems like him killing his wife was a mistake. he's protected Fuuta already, and gone on the record claiming to want to protect even more. like... he'd definitely kill Shidou under the circumstances that Shidou agreed to it, but, does that even mean anything if Kazui just wouldn't do it???

i mean. Amane would kill Shidou. you know. it's the doctor thing.

whether or not Amane can kill Shidou is a subject that's up for major debate, and for good reason. i'm of the belief that it's possible, although Shidou obviously has the chance to turn the tables as well. i could see Amane attempting to become the first killer if she believed that her and her religious agenda(?) needed to get back out into the "real world." i hope i'm not messing up her character by saying that.

Mikoto kills as a stress response, with two options of how it could go down. if Mikoto decided to kill on his own, he'd probably just go after the easiest target (Haruka). however, i have a hard time believing that John would let things get to that point. if Mikoto were truly so frazzled that he started to consider murder, something would have to cause it. my bet would be that Kotoko was getting on his case. John wants Kotoko dead, right?

canon would lead us to believe that John can beat Kotoko, though they're pretty evenly matched. if Mikoto already came into the killing game after being stressed enough to kill someone before, i don't think it'd be super hard to get him to do it again. he could definitely be the first killer. although, the serial killer split personality is usually saved for chapter 2 or 3! ha ha. ha... ha. (/neg at canon dr)

Kotoko is out to punish the wicked, meaning the person she could most quickly and certainly determine the crime of upon entering the killing game. notably, everyone is still involved with a murder, but Kotoko doesn't necessarily know that upfront. unless they're just going around and saying it... like Shidou might be.

Kotoko could absolutely kick Shidou's ass; i don't think he'd stand any chance of beating her. Kotoko is also quite likely to be the first killer, as she doesn't hesitate to eliminate evil whenever she sees it. a danganronpa murder even has the added benefit of taking out all of those other monsters when she wins. go "justice"!

okay, math time. the basic entry will have three names representing the potential case. the names included show who i think would be most likely to win a confrontation, should it occur. so, A - A - A would mean that i think character A would always die, A - A - B would mean i think character A is likely to die, A - B - B means i think character B is likely to die (default answer; i give the killer advantage for being prepared), and B - B - B means i think character B would always die. if i think someone is more likely to become the first killer, they'll have five entries instead of three with similar rules.

here's what i got:

Haruka - Amane - Amane

Yuno - Mahiru - Mahiru

Fuuta - Fuuta - Shidou - Shidou - Shidou

Muu - Muu - Mikoto

Kazui - Kazui - Kazui

Mahiru - Haruka - Haruka

Shidou - Shidou - Shidou

Amane - Amane - Shidou - Shidou - Shidou

Mikoto - Mikoto - Kotoko - Kotoko - Kotoko

Shidou - Shidou - Shidou - Shidou - Shidou

Results:

Yuno: 2.6%

Fuuta, Muu: 5.3%

Haruka, Mahiru, Kazui, Mikoto, Kotoko: 7.9%

Amane: 10.5%

Shidou: 36.8%

And that is why, mathematically, i actually think that Shidou would be the most likely first victim. kinda inevitable when you come into the game literally asking to be killed. and you're also a doctor who could provide critical autopsy evidence. yeah, that dude doesn't stand a chance.

Here's the context for what I'm about to ask So in a Danganronpa setting, between the ten Milgram prisoners

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redraw

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ripping apart

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Wolf food

(First post to show to the drdt community wooo! hope i dont regret this)

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I really loved magenta's performance 😗💖

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initial thoughts on DCAS episode 7

very notable that this was within the context of being about "love" specifically. (at least) one-sided trevek canon? (i'm not even a huge trevek shipper i just think this whole plotline is funny)

okay, so Yul's foot injury IS real. or at least, he's using it as an excuse to complain. still, the fact that it was brought up again an episode later makes me think that it's going to have SOME relevance to the plot.

any time that Yul has to parrot something in Emily's "you go girlfriend ;D" manner of speaking i cackle. he didn't choose the home decor saying any time is wine time lifestyle, the home decor saying any time is wine time lifestyle chose him.

Grett i am... genuinely confused. how can you possibly think that Yul is actually in love with you? did you really receive THAT little love in your home life? you have no ability to distinguish catty and fake praise for your accomplishments from real ones because your family gave you THAT little recognition? man. now i made myself sad :( ily Grett

okay, confirming that 1) it was Tom's trap, 2) they are willing to eat squirrels, 3) Tom is serving as the provider for the Cyan tribe. all things to take into account for any upcoming Cyan eliminations.

why

and how does said boyfriend feel about you kissing another man on television, Tom? this is a stupid lie.

again, why? it's probably already apparent from my earlier comments, but i changed my mind; i'm fully with Jake in this argument now. sure, Jake is really insecure and overly emotional, but what the HELL is Tom doing? making up a boyfriend is a really shitty thing to do, whether Tom had a legit reason for not calling Jake these past two years or if he didn't contact Jake due to his own mixed feelings/indifference. in either case, he should have told Jake the truth. at least when Jake was acting immature in S1, he was 24. Tom is a nearly 30 year old man. ACT LIKE IT.

Fiore slay

this is a really interesting response due to how vague it is, including in the vocal performance. was he taken off guard by his boss being nice to him? does he believe that she's telling the truth? does he feel bad for Trevor, or will he come to believe that he IS way better than Trevor? i'm glad that they're continuing on with the concept of the hosts having a plotline, because imo that was one of the highlights of S2, but they aren't doing it in a way that eats up as much of the screentime as it did in S2.

if Will was out of the picture i would be shipping these two so hard. who am I kidding, i kind of still am anyways.

Ally's other gf is here :,) glad that they got to reconnect (and neither of them were eliminated for it)

Fiore slay

the confirmation that Aiden thinks that the idea of him having any attraction to Tom is laughable and disgusting is HILARIOUS to me. bro really said, "why the hell would i be into YOU when i have JAMES lmao" straight to Tom's face. tbf, James and Tom are like... opposites in terms of personality and appearance (beyond being generally handsome and athletic young men).

"silly me, i keep forgetting that not everyone met their super cool and attractive boyfriend on reality TV. my bad!" (/pos)

(i tried to type "hubby" instead of boyfriend but i spared you all. it was too cringe even as the one subjecting others to the cringe.)

okay this was very fitting for her. iconic.

honestly, Alec and Riya's villainous alliance/friendship is really fun. leave it to Alec to always find himself in the least likely but most entertaining duos. Riya really benefits from being paired with a legitimate strategist, and someone who won't just let her totally get away with stuff.

we had to get in one last Fiore taking unnecessary damage for the road :,(

feeling like Jaiden is going to be winning the starting couples' survival roulette. and Wishley, to the extent they count.

now i'm no physicist, but how did this work? shouldn't the ball be a fast and heavy enough object at this point that it would jump over the log, not ricochet off of it? i suppose if the ball is made of something more like wicker than yarn, it could be a bit more likely to do that. but then why is it going to the side? it hit the log straight on!

... are you not allowed to help him anymore? what?

ellie is going full villain mode fr. if her and gabby's relationship gets messed up, that would definitely be karma. but, i suppose she survives this episode...

this is funny because nobody strikes me as the pizza and soda loving type. Alec, Grett, Yul, and Riya all seem like people who would want to eat something that's both fancier and healthier.

communication W (for both of them)

Fiore is such a best girl that she's not even a salty juror. she's not mad at them for so long that she can't use her final moments to throw a wrench in the works for everyone else. the grind never sleeps, clowns <3

and she even conquered her greatest nemesis, the bus, this time. fly high, queen. i'll miss you.

well, as a Fiore stan, this episode was a bit sad for me. but, i do totally understand why Magenta would both vote for Fiore and lose the challenge. (damn you, Ellie...) Fiore already did super well in both S1 and the original Adventure Camp, so i understand why they wouldn't have her go super far again in this season, especially when everyone knows she's such a threat.

i just hope that we can still get a little more closure for her and Alec than we got already in this season. all it has to be is, like, him being sad at her elimination for reasons other than pure strategy and maybe a nice conversation at the finale. it doesn't have to be Alec finally adopting her... even if i did want that to happen... i'd just prefer to know that they leave things on good terms.

anyways, another really solid episode! i look forward to the next one. thanks for reading!

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Hehehe…. White day purples

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going off-script

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Disventure Camp All Stars Power Ranking (Round 6)

And, we're back! I'm so glad that the leaking issue didn't wind up making the team have to delay their episode releases, both for their sake and ours. I've been highly anticipating this teaser release, and look forward to cracking into the next round of Power Rankings.

In case you didn't see my last power ranking for Episode 5, the Power Ranking Format is essentially a way of ranking how well each player is doing in the game. So, in essence, this is a long form way of predicting who I think will be eliminated from the competition in the next episode. There will be spoilers for last week's episode (obviously) and its power ranking, so make sure to read that first if you don't want to be spoiled on how I ranked our last boot. If you want more clarification on the rules, that first post will help you out as well. Furthermore, I'm going to be spoiling the preview for next episode, so if you want to go in TOTALLY blind, save this for later. Let's go!

Recap - Connor's Elimination

Current Point Total: 9 acquired/14 possible

'Cause now we have lore! >:D

Well, turns out that my assessment that the Season 2 cast was safe turned out to not be true. At least Connor was my second lowest positioned of the S2 characters, and my bad vibes about the Yellow Tribe were on point... Yeah, that's some copium right there. Seems this whole predicting business might be harder than I thought. Genuinely, though, I'm glad that Connor was at least in the better half of the contestants ranked (barely).

While I'm a little disappointed that Connor didn't make it farther this time around-- I think his placement was nearly identical to how he did in S2-- he wasn't particularly one of my favorite characters, so the loss didn't hurt me that deeply. Instead, he was an understandable sacrifice in terms of making the villains out to be more of a threat, much like what I theorized for Grett. Lesson learned that sometimes the most obvious boot from a tribe simply will be the boot.

Trailer Analysis

Looking back on the last power ranking, I feel like I could have done a lot better if I'd been paying more attention to what we were shown in the preview beyond the song snippet. So, combined with the fact that I'm just really excited to figure out what's going on next episode, I decided that this time around I'd take a closer look. I've never been a fan of analyzing a trailer so closely that you basically spoil the entire story before it happens, but, I don't think that'll happen here...? Depending on how accurate I am, maybe this section will suddenly disappear next time. Who knows.

So, a compilation of relevant things that I think will happen next episode:

Connor and Trevor will have a conversation. While I doubt that this will have anything to do with the elimination order, it is interesting. I'm guessing that Connor will give Trevor some sort of advice regarding his feelings for Derek? Or, even if it can't be counted as advice (given the L he took with Riya), Connor could at least relate. I don't think this is foretelling that Connor will reenter the competition now, though.

Somebody set up a trap to catch a squirrel. My guess is Tom, as a continuation to the drama between Gabby and the others over killing and eating animals. (Aiden confirms in Episode 5 that catching the chicken was "Tom's trap.") However, it could also be something related to Jensen and/or Trevor and Derek, if they started trying to kill the forest animals again.

Yul will take more orders from Emily to make Grett happy. This means that this is an ongoing plotline.

Tess and Ally will reunite at some point. Interesting.

Tom and Jake are definitely going to fight. Given that Tom looks surprised in one screenshot and regretful in the other, I think he's going to realize how much his relationship with Aiden has been hurting Jake.

The challenge will be contestants pushing balls of yarn(?) down towards other teams' arches, trying to score a goal, while other members of the teams try to block them. All teams appear to have arches and people pushing balls. This is definitely another challenge taken from Survivor, I think possibly Gabon...? I'm pretty sure that, in real life, they had to stop doing this challenge because it injured people too much, but that's the beauty of animation!

At least Yul and Aiden will be knocked down, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. Does that mean they gave it their all to stop a ball, or that the ball trampled their attempts to stop it...? Focusing on the second screenshot, though, the Cyan team is stopping yellow and magenta balls at the same time. Assuming the contestants have any say in where they aim, I wonder if the Yellow (Grett) and Magenta (Ashley, possibly Fiore?) teams will align to target Cyan because they have five members. That could be an in-universe reason to keep the teams even with a Cyan elimination, despite Cyan being pretty physically fit.

"Sure, princess. Whatever floats your boat~!"

Given Fiore's placement in both of these screenshots, it seems like one image must happen right before the other, so Fiore is probably addressing Jake. She sounds really confident and mocking... for some reason? Not saying that's out of character for Fiore, but did something happen to make that confidence warranted as opposed to her anger at being on the bottom? Here are my two guesses: 1) Fiore, Ashley, and Ally have made a girls' alliance, so Fiore is dismissive towards Jake because she knows he's on the bottom. 2) More likely, this might have something to do with Tom and Jake's fight. Jake ran in to urgently tell Fiore something, which could be about a development in Tom and Jake's relationship. Fiore doesn't care, so she gets sassy. I'm honestly kind of confused by this, but we'll see what happens.

Those are all of the scenes from the trailer that I thought were important/I was actually able to get something of value out of. Onto the main event: the actual Power Ranking!

Power Ranking

#1: Jake

Other than... being a S1 character, I guess? There really isn't anything that makes me think that Jake would be headed home this week. He's entrenched in drama, he seems to have the numbers on his tribe, and I don't even think that Magenta is going to tribal. To me, it's so clear cut that I don't have much to say. If he does go home, I'll be very surprised.

#2: Alec

Woah, check out that jump! From 12th to 2nd. Adventure Camp Dan wishes he could've had that when moving to Disventure Camp.

Now that Alec has survived one Yellow vote-- which turned out to be Connor-- I think he's pretty safe. The idea of Riya, Yul, and Grett suddenly now turning around and all working together to eliminate their leader feels laughable, given how dysfunctional the three of them are. Like, could Alec really lose that much social capital in the span of one episode, in a challenge he'll presumably be good at...? I'm kind of anticipating a merge at 12 (Episode 7), so I'm hoping this would confirm that Alec makes the merge.

#3: Ashley

Speaking of making the merge, I honestly think that Ashley will be there. After exploring some more of DC's behind the scenes content (the charity livestream they held 4 months ago and Silly Billy's S1 cast interviews), I've come to learn that the DC cast really likes Ashley... for some reason.

Look, it's not like I hate the gal! I just don't see her as the standout, heroic and hilarious character that a bunch of the voice actors seem to. Because I held this opinion, I was unaware of the possibility that Ashley was brought back because she was some huge fan favorite that everyone wanted to see done to justice. If that's the case, I have a hard time seeing the DC writers eliminating her as a premerger again.

I don't think Magenta is going to tribal, and I think that Fiore or Ally would be more natural boots than Ashley would be anyways. Congrats on ranking this high even though you're currently being hunted for sport, S1 girl. I still don't think you're going to win overall, but you'll probably make it through the day.

#4: Yul

Another big jump! Yul's new position is aided by two major factors. The first is that he's one of only two S2 boys left in the game, after James, Hunter, and Connor were eliminated (side note: I did NOT notice that the game only started with three boys from S1. I wonder what level of safety that grants them. Why did they bring back every S1 girl except Lill. That's so many.)

The second is that the plotline between him and Emily is clearly continuing to have relevance. Perhaps I'm relying too much on the rule of threes, but it would be strange, in my opinion, to have Yul lean on Emily for assistance more than once, but still only twice. Perhaps Emily's character was largely designed to assist a major Yul plotline, after all.

He also doesn't seem to have suffered too greatly from that stage light falling on his foot last episode, which bodes well for his odds. Unfortunately, it seems like the viewing public is going to be subjected to Yul for a little while longer (/lh).

#5: Aiden

Woohoo, the other surviving S2 boy. I honestly wanted to put him higher, but the fact that I'm really feeling like Cyan is headed for tribal couldn't let me justify higher than 5th place.

And, there are genuine reasons why I think he could go home now. If that conversation between Tom and Jake ends in them reconciling, the writers might not want Aiden around anymore to continue being a barrier between them. (And, now that the music episode has passed, they don't need to keep him around for his pipes, either ;).) It's been long enough now since Lake's elimination that I don't think Aiden's elimination would feel super weird. He's had a bit of a chance to play for himself, so if his fate now becomes to hang out in a cool hotel with his boyfriend and bestie for a couple of weeks, it wouldn't seem so bad.

...But I still think Aiden isn't going home, dammit! Knowing DC, I doubt Tom and Jake would make up so early unless one of them was going home, not Aiden. They love the drama. Tom and Jake's relationship is more likely to get worse before it gets better. Not to mention, I still find the "James returns" theory very compelling. Although the Cyan girls have plenty of reasons to eliminate Aiden, I still don't really think they would.

#6: Ally

Is it just me, or would Ally's elimination feel... really random right now? Like, how would it happen, and what narrative point would it serve? The show has very deliberately shown Ally bonding with each and every member of her team. She's had multiple one-on-one conversations with Ashley cementing their friendship, she grew closer to Jake by relating to him through song, and was always the one to defend Fiore from Hunter's attacks. All three of them have reasons to like her and want to work with her, so why would they let her go?

However, Ally doesn't cement a higher placement because I do think there are ways that they could swing her elimination. It's possible that the writers only established relationships between Ashley, Jake, and Ally so that there'll be high stakes and tension between which teammate Ashley and Jake will pair with if Magenta does go to another vote. For Ally to go home, they would have to choose to side with Fiore, but that's not totally unreasonable given how they voted last time.

The fact that Ally and Tess seem to reunite in this episode is also troubling. We have the dangling plot thread from last episode that Ally is worried that she and Hunter won't be able to spend that much time apart (which she believes is good for them) before they have to reexamine their relationship. If that fear turns out to be true, I could see that giving Ally an opportunity to quickly get some advice and closure from Tess would allow her to head to the Losers' Motel with a plan of how to handle Hunter in the future.

I still don't think that Ally or Magenta has anything to fear with tribal, though.

#7: Tess

A definite downgrade from last week, but still not that terrible. A lot of Tess' new placement is that, as I keep reiterating, I think Cyan is very likely to go to tribal, so it's hard to justify putting anyone on Cyan too high.

Having the opportunity to reconnect with Ally is also potentially bad for Tess, although probably less problematic for Tess than for Ally. If the writers were like, "well, Tess got one conversation with Hunter and one with Ally, now she's out!", that would be kind of silly, imo. But, still, that chat will eliminate the sort of "immunity" from getting booted that I gave Tess previously.

It's also not like there's no reason for the Cyans to take out Tess here. The swing vote is usually a fairly protected position, as both alliances should be looking to her for aid. But, if neither side finds her trustworthy enough, they could unite to take her out. I can definitely see a potential character arc of Tess' indecision taking her out from the game. If she can truly never make up her mind about whether to trust Ellie or not, everyone could unite to take out their unreliable teammate and save their own asses.

However, from a narrative perspective, this would further postpone the conflict between Ellie and Aiden, which could be kind of anticlimactic. It would also throw away Tess' character over a trait that wasn't even particularly pronounced in her original appearance. Then again, we saw what the writers did to Hunter, so we can't be too sure that Tess isn't headed in a similar direction.

#8: Grett

Much like Alec, I'm a bit less worried about Grett in this episode after we had the Yellow elimination last episode. She's also picking up points from (presumably) being involved in the ongoing Yul and Emily plotline, which could give her some plot armor moving forward.

If Yellow is headed to a vote, I don't really see why Alec and Riya would choose to eliminate Grett over Yul. Riya really dislikes Yul, he's still possibly injured, and Alec has a history of working with Grett, even if it ended on kind of bad terms.

Why put her so far below Yul, then? Well, first of all, Grett is a meta-threatened S1 girl, while Yul is a meta-protected S2 boy. Secondly, I do still think that Yul will probably be the cause of Grett's elimination at some point down the line, even if it's not this episode. Perhaps I should make an overall theory post talking about some of my thoughts on potential endings someday. And, third, I actually did think of one reason why Alec and Riya would choose to keep Yul over Grett... kind of. If Emily wanted to keep Yul in the show for whatever reasons, she could use the earpiece to instruct Yul on clever, strategic things to say that could also convince Alec and Riya that he turned over a new leaf. Basically, it's possible that Emily could girlboss her way into keeping Yul in the game, rather than Yul staying in due to his own merits.

There are other S1 girls (and others) that I believe to be in a spicier position now than Grett, though, so she lands at #8.

#9: Fiore

With Fiore, we enter the realm of players that I seriously believe could be in danger of elimination this episode. Yes, despite my claims that I think Fiore could be the winner, I do think that, if Magenta goes to tribal this episode, Fiore would be the boot. I just don't think Magenta really is going to tribal; ha ha!

It's really that whole, "whatever you say, princess~" that has me worried for Fiore. I'm concerned that, after getting a taste of power with the Hunter boot going her way, Fiore has become overconfident in thinking that Ally is definitely the next boot and that she will make the merge, whenever it is. (Basically, Fiore would think that Ally's presence gives her enough of a buffer that she thinks the merge is essentially secured.) If she goes back to demeaning Jake and Ashley, they could easily choose to turn on her and protect their newfound friendships with Ally instead. Fiore's status as a S1 girl isn't helping that read.

Again, I feel like all of the current Magenta team members are probably going to make the merge at this point, so Fiore should be safe. However, as (in my opinion) the most likely Magenta boot, Fiore winds up at #9 in case of emergency.

#10: Gabby

Thinking back on it, other than being a S1 girl, my reasoning behind Gabby's elimination wasn't that strong.

Or, maybe it was, before Ellie absorbed even more of the villainous energy last episode with her comments about torturing Jake. With comments like that, it becomes even harder to believe that Tom and Aiden would choose to target Gabby instead of Ellie. The farther Gabby makes it into All Stars, the less of an excuse there is for her to be eliminated with very little focus beforehand.

Still, I think Cyan is in trouble, blah blah blah. If some sort of twist does occur that gives Ellie individual immunity amidst her team-- and I don't think that would be a totem, as Ellie using a totem on herself and inadvertently sending Gabby home would basically require her to make her totem publicly known before the vote-- then they could target Gabby instead.

It is harder to predict DC than Survivor because DC has more of a penchant for pulling random shit out of nowhere, like that vote in S1 where Gabby just straight up obliterated Ashley. I wonder if that relationship will reemerge later in All Stars... Gabby would probably need to be around for it to happen, so, clearly, she should stay in.

#11: Tom

When I was drafting out my initial thoughts for this list, I originally put Tom really high. Like, top 3 high. But, the more I thought about it, the more I started to feel like Tom could be on the chopping block this episode.

For starters, the love triangle. I said last episode that, because Tom is the central leg between Jake and Aiden, he wouldn't be at risk of elimination. Well... I take those words back, sort of.

Let's look at it this way: if you eliminated any one of Jake, Aiden, or Tom, what would happen? If you eliminate Jake, Aiden and Tom are left. That's pretty boring, because then they could just be friends without any particularly strong (or at least personally motivated) opposition. If you eliminate Aiden, Jake and Tom are left. That's definitely better, because Jake and Tom could simply continue the will-they-won't-they plotline on their own, but you'd still lose Aiden as an obstacle without Jake having any hand in it.

If you eliminate Tom, Jake and Aiden are left. In my opinion, this is by far the spiciest option. Jake would probably be super mad at Aiden for not doing enough to protect Tom from getting voted out, leading to Aiden being justifiably angry that Jake has been so aggressive towards him despite Aiden not wanting Tom to go home, either. I think that having Tom's two "love interests" left to fight each other without him actually being there is the most interesting way in which one corner of the triangle could be eliminated.

But that's all about why Tom "should" be eliminated; what about why he would get eliminated? There are a couple of possibilities here, too. First of all, that argument between Jake and Tom in the preview, which ended with Tom pretty clearly being remorseful about what he did. If Tom gets super demoralized about screwing things up with Jake, it could cause him to be seen as a liability. Or, in an extreme case, Tom could feel so guilty about his and Aiden's kiss that he would ask the girls to target him instead of Aiden.

Alternatively (or even additionally), we also saw that squirrel trap in the trailer, which I said could be hinting at further conflict between Tom and Gabby over the team's diet. If Gabby got really fed up with Tom's carnivore side, she could ask Ellie if they could target Tom instead of Aiden, which Ellie might agree to.

Despite all this, I can also totally understand why the writers would want to keep Tom around. After his kiss with Aiden, his visibility and importance seem higher than ever. If James does return to the competition later, having him chat with Tom would be... interesting, even given James not caring that his boyfriend was stage-kissing another man. And, Tom potentially has a winner plot set up, given that the writers found it important enough to tell us what Tom would do with the prize. With Cyan likely going to tribal, however, the possibility of a surprise Tom boot felt more viable than ever. I'm not putting him in last place, but if Tom does wind up going home, I'm gonna feel pretty smart.

#12: Riya

Much like Fiore, Riya is here as my safety net for who I think would go home if Yellow does wind up going to tribal instead of Cyan. However, I feel like a third Yellow tribal is, on the whole, more likely than a third Magenta tribal, so Riya gets kicked all the way down here.

Without Connor as a shield, Riya is in a much worse position. Yul already dislikes Riya in general, but that only increased after she caused the light to fall on him, and would only increase more if he ever learns that Riya was the one to fire that stray vote at him. Grett would probably work with Yul, which is already 50% of the votes against her.

Alec is definitely Riya's best lifeline, and it could work out in her favor. After all, if Alec continues working with Grett and Yul, if they go to tribal again, the couple would most likely vote him out. However, I think it's really a question of how much longer Alec thinks he has before the merge.

Here's my logic: if Alec thinks there's still a long time until the merge, then, yes, it would be better to work with Riya to have a chance to eliminate Grett or Yul. That's because, the more team challenges there are, the greater opportunity Yellow has to lose again, and the greater possibility that Grett and Yul vote him out.

However, if Alec thinks that the merge is soon, it's better to vote out Riya. If Alec and Riya managed to eliminate, let's say, Yul, then Alec is essentially losing two members of his villains alliance-- one due to Yul's elimination, and one due to Grett presumably withdrawing. Alec has already burned her once before.

That would cause the villains alliance to go into the merge with a maximum of only four members: Alec, Riya, Fiore, and Ellie. The other teams have already been primed to believe that the villains are a huge threat, and with such small numbers, they would be very easily eradicated. Even beyond others, Fiore and Ellie might also be mad at Alec for him dragging them onto his sinking ship of a plan, and try to desert as well. My point is, sticking with Riya could go really badly for Alec.

So, combining that doomsday scenario with me at least thinking that the merge probably will be soon, and the fact that Alec choosing to side with Riya would only put them at a 50:50, NOT a majority, and I can totally see why Alec would choose to vote for Riya.

And, that's not even taking into account Riya's poor behavior! The Yellow Team did lose the singing challenge due to Riya's influence, and they suffered during the diving challenge due to her fear of the depths, too. She's a challenge liability. She was also shown hogging the shower, and is now sunbathing during camp life, proving that she's not a team player. She has way too much confidence in her "power position," as she put it last episode, for where her game actually is. If it's not Cyan that goes to tribal, I can totally see the threads coming together to lead to a Riya elimination.

#13: Ellie

It's just simple math for me at this point. I think that Cyan is almost certainly going to tribal next episode + I think Ellie is by far the most likely boot for Cyan's next tribal = I think Ellie is really, really likely to be the next boot. She's even a S1 girl.

My argument is pretty much the exact same things I said last episode, except now they're even worse. The screenshots from the challenge now make me think that Cyan will go to tribal next episode, as opposed to my confusion about why Cyan would lose a music challenge. We also saw that Ellie has begun to prioritize suffering over strategy, which both increases the odds that people like Tess would want to take her out and decreases the odds that she'd be able to pull off an intellectual move to save herself.

I'll honestly be pretty surprised if Ellie doesn't go home next episode... but, hey, I was surprised by Connor's boot last episode, too! If Ellie does manage to survive another episode, I wonder if I'll have to start reconsidering putting her so close to the bottom. Part of it would depend on how she survives, of course.

The only way to know for sure is to actually watch the episode myself, so, see y'all on Thursday! Thanks for reading!

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Flower boys! (...who both know approximately absolutely nothing about flowers)

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lower one’s eyes