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PREMIER LEAGUE BOXING DAY TIPS

Burnley 10/3

It’s pretty hard to tip Burnley on form – they’re in the bottom three after losing five of their last six. However, I’m hoping they’re close to a change of luck after losing in injury time against Spurs, and the score line flattered Arsenal on Saturday as Burnley were well on top for the last twenty minutes before Arsenal pinched their third on the break. It’s also worth chancing a home win considering the run Everton are on - winless in five and they were fortunate not to concede double figures against Spurs. The 10/3 will be even more tempting if Zouma somehow manages to retain his place. 

Watford 14/5 DNB

Chelsea shouldn’t be odds on to win at Vicarage Road given their recent run. Despite an impressive win against Man City, they have lost three of their last six and Maurizio Sarri continues to voice his concerns. After a run of three consecutive defeats, Watford have taken seven points from their last three games, which would have been nine had they held on at Everton. The Hornets have given most of the big teams a tough game at home, beating Spurs and losing by the odd goal against the Manchester clubs.

An alternative bet is Gerard Deulofeu to continue his good form (7/2 to score anytime) by finding the net for the third game running.

Brighton 11/4 DNB

Brighton may have lost their last three, but they are overpriced to beat Arsenal who are leaking goals. The Seagulls are tough to beat at the AMEX and they have only lost to Chelsea and Spurs by the odd goal there this season. Arsenal are down to the bare bones in defence and have conceded at least twice in three of their last four away games. 

In terms of cards, Sokratis is a walking booking (three in his last six) so I was surprised to see he’s as big as 3/1 to add to that tally. 

Other bets

Matt Ritchie has been carded five times this season and is as big as 9/2 to be booked at Anfield.

Spurs are in fantastic form and should gain another comfortable win as Bournemouth have a poor record against the top six. Son and Alli to both score is 5/1 (bet365) 

Either player to score with Steve Cook to be carded is 8/1 and 9/1 respectively (bet365)  

Finally, I quite like Sky Bet’s price boost of Son, Rashford and Sigurdsson all to score at 16/1. 

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Request A Bets and Player of the Year

I couldn’t see a 250/1 shot that jumped off the page like last season, but a few of these should give you a good run for your money. All with SkyBet 

Arsenal to score 80+, Everton to score 55+, Fulham and Burnley 40+ points 90/1

Man City to win the league, Man Utd to not make top 4, Fulham top half, Cardiff relegated  66/1

Fulham top half finish and Southampton to be relegated 40/1

Fulham and Wolves to stay up, Derby and Nottingham Forest to finish in the top 6 10/1

Arsenal to score 70+, Palace and Wolves to score 45+, Southampton bottom half 8/1

PFA Player and Young Player of the Year

As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I fancy Aubameyang to score plenty of goals and have been looking to back him somehow. If he scores 25+ or even manages to win the Golden Boot, Arsenal may also sneak top four. That would make him a strong contender and I’ve taken 20/1 with Skybet.

I also managed to get 20/1 on Naby Keita (now 12s). The all round midfielder will make a huge difference to Liverpool this season and has already received rave reviews in pre-season. The only issue may be his tendency for a red card.

Ryan Sessegnon stock rose again last season and now is the chance to really see how good he is. It’s a big step up but Fulham are expected to have a decent season and with Sessegnon one of their main attacking threats (16 goals last season) 16/1 is worth a chance.

The other eye catcher in the market is Trent-Alexander Arnold who stepped in to cover for Nathaniel Clyne last season and ended up playing in a Champions League final and the World Cup. It’s not fashionable to give these awards to defenders, but if Liverpool push for the title and Alexander Arnold continues to progress, 33/1 could end up looking too big.

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Premier League Relegation Tips

Stoke were a 6/1 winner last season. Who is this year’s value for the drop?

As was the case time last year half the league are 7/1 or less to go down and it’s a case of identifying the most likely contenders.

The obvious place to start is with the promoted teams. Neil Warnock worked his promotion magic again with Cardiff, but he’s out of his depth at this level and their squad doesn’t look good enough which is why they’re 8/13.  

Big spending Wolves comfortably won the Championship last season and they are targeting Champions League football in the next few years. They already look to be better than at least five or six teams and have brought in further additions.

Fulham are back in the top division after a four year absence. They play good football, have some exciting young players, including Ryan Sessegnon, and have spent a staggering £100m on improving their squad. I’m not sure why they’re as short as 7/4 as they should comfortably avoid a relegation battle and be pushing for a mid-table finish.

One team who were fortunate to stay up are Huddersfield. They were in big trouble with three games to go but managed to find two crucial points at Chelsea and City. David Wagner deserves huge credit for keeping them up, but they only won three games after Christmas which is why the bookies have them as second favourites. They have a tough start with their first two games against Chelsea and City and defeats in those games could set the tone for a long season. They also play Spurs and Liverpool by mid October. 

Sean Dyche led Burnley to a brilliant seventh place last season and Europa League football. The extra games and travelling will be a challenge, but they are now a solid, consistent team and shouldn’t be anywhere near the bottom three come May.

Brighton are fourth favourites, but they stayed up fairly comfortably last season. They have brought in a dozen players, with record signing Alireza Jahanbakhsh (below) one in particular to keep an eye on. An improvement on last season’s 15th place finish is a realistic target. 

Two teams who could be in trouble are Watford and Newcastle. Whoever their manager, in the last two seasons the Hornets have collapsed after Christmas but due to the failures of others have just about stayed afloat. They finished 14th last season, eight points clear of Swansea, but conceded more goals than every team below them bar Stoke. Scoring more than all of those teams led them to safety, but if the goals dry up it’ll be a lot closer this time.

All is not well on Tyneside as Rafa Benitez has again bemoaned another transfer window where he hasn’t been able to bring in who he would have liked, although seven players have still come in. I suppose it doesn’t help when your owner’s attention is more on House of Fraser. Newcastle finished tenth last season, twelve points clear of Swansea. However, they lost 18 times, only one less than Stoke and West Brom. If they’re struggling come January and Benitez is again restricted in the transfer market, it could be a slippery slope. 

This could well be Rafa Benitez’s feelings towards Mike Ashley come May 

West Ham were in danger for a fair chunk of last season, but they avoided relegation fairly comfortably in the end. The atmosphere in east London now seems far more relaxed due to the appointment of a title winning manager and the under fire owners splashing the cash on a mixture of Premier League experience and European talent. They should now be pushing for a top half finish rather than looking over their shoulder.

Crystal Palace may well have been my value tip had Wilfred Zaha departed, but he hasn’t and they’ve brought in Max Meyer and Jordan Ayew to strengthen their squad. They should be ok, but are a team worth keeping an eye on for a cover bet during the season.

Bournemouth are vulnerable as they concede too many, but they don’t have any problems at the other end and I think there’ll be at least three worse teams than them come the end of the season. 

Mark Hughes nearly took two teams down last season. He could well finish the job this time

One of the reasons I tipped Stoke this time last year was because of not rating Mark Hughes and that’s still the case. He was in charge for two thirds of the season and left Paul Lambert, although not the greatest choice of replacement, with too much to do. There was an improvement in Southampton after he took over but it ultimately came down to a win at Swansea, who seemed to have accepted their fate, to keep them up. I see the Saints struggles at home and in front of goal continuing and Hughes may well find himself out of work at around the same time of the season. 

Top tip: Cardiff / Huddersfield / Watford  22/1 (SkyBet)

Value: Newcastle 5/1  Southampton 7/1 

Others: Cardiff / Huddersfield / Newcastle 40/1 (Bet365)

Cardiff / Newcastle / Watford  50/1  (Bet365)

Cardiff / Huddersfield / Southampton 50/1 (SkyBet) 

Cardiff / Watford / Southampton 100/1 (SkyBet)

Newcastle / Huddersfield / Watford 100/1 (SkyBet) 

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PREMIER LEAGUE TOP SCORER TIPS

THREE OVERPRICED PROVEN PREMIER LEAGUE PERFORMERS AND A GENUINE OUTSIDER

This is a pressure tipping market after finding 66/1 Mo Salah last season. The Egyptian King was seen as value to push for a place, but he exceeded all expectations in claiming the Golden Boot with 32 goals and with the chances he missed he could have easily scored another 10-15. 

This time around he’s second favourite behind Harry Kane and is obviously far too short to be tipped here. I think Patrick Aubameyang will have strong season and I was hoping for a double figure odds, but the bookies see it the same way and he’s been backed in from 7s. However, I have found some value in backing the Arsenal striker in another market. Sergio Aguero was as big as 10/1 before the Community Shield, which I wish I’d snapped up and his brace has unsurprisingly seen him cut to as short as 6s.

So where does the value lie? I immediately thought of Salah’s team mate Roberto Firmino and am gutted to have missed the 50/1 with a few firms a couple of weeks ago. The Brazilian is now half that price, but I still think that’s decent value for a player who should improve again and plays every week in a free scoring team. Firmino wasn’t given enough game time for Brazil in the World Cup as they stuck with Jesus who had a poor tournament. When he was given a chance he made an impact and while not basing this tip purely on that, should Firmino be double the odds as Jesus? No, and I’ll take the 25/1 that a fresh Firmino can find an extra 5-10 goals (15 last season) to really contend this time.

Jamie Vardy (40/1) is worth a mention after placing last season with 20 goals, but he has lost his main supply line in Mahrez and despite Leicester bringing in some reinforcements, I think that will lead to a drop off this season. 

Sterling can improve on last season’s tally of 18 

Another who immediately jumped off the page at big odds was Raheem Sterling. He enjoyed his most prolific season with 18 goals, as City walked the league, which saw him finish fifth in the scoring charts. It could/should have been so many more as Sterling missed a host of chances, such as the first half at the Etihad against United. However, as long as he’s ready to go again after a disappointing personal World Cup, and being one of Guardiola’s favourite players in a team which should win the league again, the 66/1 is worth a chance.

Another who is overpriced is Eden Hazard, who is as short as 25s. The Belgian was excellent as Belgium reached the semi-finals and it is slightly surprising that Real Madrid didn’t push harder for him, although there is still time. Hazard hasn’t pushed for a move which is a big positive and presuming he stays, new manager Maurizio Sarri will surely look to build the team around him. The ex-Napoli coach is known for his attacking style and with Morata and Giroud seemingly not the answer to Chelsea’s prolific striker problem, Hazard could find himself the focal point. If that’s the case, Hazard will significantly improve on his 12 goals from last season. 

Last season was a quiet one for Hazard but it can be different this time 

For my real long shot I’ve gone for Aleksander Mitrovic . The Serbian was a revelation at Craven Cottage after joining on loan in January, scoring 12 in just 17 starts and a huge reason why Fulham went a 23 game unbeaten run which led to promotion via the playoffs. Fulham have paid £22m to make it a permanent move and have made spent big money on other signings to show they’re not purely aiming for 17th place.

A striker at a huge price who is worth a look is Chris Wood of Burnley who is 250/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power. The Kiwi striker struggled with injury last season but still scored 10 times in 24 appearances, which is a good ratio. For Wood to have any sort of chance he’ll need to stay fit and Burnley will need to score significantly more than their 36 goals last season. However, I’m happy with those already tipped. Let’s hope one of them is this season’s Salah

Selections: (All e/w 4 places)

Roberto Firmino 25/1 (General)

Eden Hazard 50/1 (Bet365)

Raheem Sterling 66/1 (Bet365)

Aleksander Mitrovic 100/1 (Bet365 & SkyBet)

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Premier League Outright Tips

With the Manchester forecast tipped last season, we again have the task of finding some value in the outright market which this time has Manchester City as odds on favourites to retain their crown. 

I’ll keep it brief with the main pros and cons from the big six. Sorry Leicester, West Ham and Everton fans, but it’s not going to happen. 

Manchester City 

Unsurprisingly the champions are 4/6 to retain their crown. They won the title with 100 points, 19 clear of United, scored 106 goals, won 32 games and lost just twice. They have added Riyad Mahrez to their string of attacking talent and the Algerian should thrive paying with the likes of Aguero, Jesus, the Silvas, Sterling and De Bruyne.

It’s difficult to find negatives. They are still vulnerable at the back despite only conceding 27 last season, but if anyone is to seriously challenge them more teams will need to take Liverpool’s approach, who beat City three times last season. However, I think that’s unlikely and City will probably win the title again, albeit with a reduced margin. 

Liverpool

On paper they should be City’s main challengers. The team spirit, atmosphere and optimism around the club is as positive as it’s been in a very long time. Liverpool have had an excellent summer in the transfer market, spending wisely and early. Klopp now has the squad he wants after significantly strengthening his midfield with Keita and Fabinho, with Shaqiri as strong back up to his front three. However, his most crucial signing could be £66m Alison, the modern day keeper who Klopp will be praying solves Liverpool’s long standing issues between the sticks. Even Daniel Sturridge is looking sharp and fit with six goals in pre-season, although there is obviously a huge risk he’ll come on for the last five minutes against West Ham and pull a hamstring.

Will Alison be the answer to Liverpool’s goalkeeping problem? 

Despite their excellent season, Liverpool still finished a distant 26 points behind City. They could have a bit been closer, but results tailed off as they focussed on the Champions League. It could be argued that they still need another centre back nearer to Van Dijk’s level and losing Oxlade-Chamberlain for the season is a huge blow. He was outstanding last season and is arguably what was missing from England’s midfield in Russia. Hopefully Lallana can put his injury problems behind him to make up for the Ox’s absence. As always, another concern is Liverpool’s ability to turn draws into wins and beat the smaller teams. Last season they dropped points against all of the relegated teams, as well as the likes of Burnley and Watford. Whatever happens, it won’t be boring.

Manchester United          

Despite much criticism for their style of play last season and Mourinho’s trademark moaning, United still finished second by four points. The positives are that they still have an array of attacking options in Lukaku, Sanchez, Martial, Rashford, Mata and Lingard, but the question remains will they be let off the leash? United scored the fewest goals of last season’s top four and Sanchez has often looked lost and isolated since joining in January. The enigma that is Paul Pogba again gave hints of what he is capable of at the World Cup, but he still has plenty to prove in the Premier League and things haven’t been helped 

Fred is the only major signing at Old Trafford - if you don’t count Lee Grant 

by his agent rumoured to be pushing for a move to Barcelona. United’s only major signing has been Fred, but he is more of a typical Mourinho physical midfielder signing rather than the missing link attackingly. Perhaps the hope is that he will allow Pogba to play further forward.

The atmosphere around the club pre-season has clearly not been good. Erratic performances and results, combined with a lack of transfer activity has prompted outbursts by Mourinho, who has also harshly criticised the club’s young players. It’s typical Mourinho theatre, but the main concern is that this will be his trademark third season syndrome - he is second favourite behind Claude Puel to be first manager to leave. He wants to challenge City, but doesn’t appear to have the squad to do it. If he lasts the season then I think he’ll find a way for United to finish top four as there are also question marks over Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal. However, it’s a big if. 

Tottenham

Mauricio Pochettino has an excellent first choice eleven and some decent back up options. They have held on to all their key players and have the excitement of moving to their new stadium. Wembley wasn’t a problem for them last season and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be a smooth transition to the new White Hart Lane. Despite his customary slow start, Harry Kane scored 30 goals last season and won the Golden Boot at the World Cup and he’s backed up by Eriksen, Alli, Son, Lamela and Moura. 

Son and Alli will need to back up Kane if Spurs are to make the top four 

However, it seems strange that they have failed to add to their squad and push on, the first time this has happened at any Premier League club in a transfer window since 2003. Perhaps this is due to the new stadium, or Levy’s usual last minute tactics failed to produce anything this time. They didn’t really go for Jack Grealish or fancy splashing the cash on a Zaha. Much will depend on how long it takes the likes of Kane and Alli to get going again and if they can avoid major injuries. 

Chelsea

A summer which started with the long anticipated departure of Conte and little action in the transfer market has ended with the appointment of Maurizio Sarri and £120m spent on a new goalkeeper and creative midfielder. Despite much uncertainty to begin with, Chelsea have comfortably held on to the likes of Kante, Hazard and Willian. They have added Jorginho and now have the bonus of a fit and almost forgotten man Ross Barkley.  

Chelsea had the task of finding somewhere for chain smoking Sarri to light up during matches at Stamford Bridge 

They threatened to pip Liverpool to fourth towards the end of last season, but losing 10 games and only scoring 62 goals ultimately cost them. It will be interesting to see the system Sarri starts with as David Luiz seems to be back in favour, but is out of his depth playing in a back four. I’m not sure we’ll see much improvement from Morata and Giroud isn’t prolific enough so much will depend on Hazard. Michy Batshuyai is back after a prolific loan spell at Dortmund, so will be hoping for a fresh start under a new manager. The five point gap to the top four can be overcome and they will be targeting Man United in particular. 

Arsenal

The end of an era finally came as Arsene Wenger departed after 22 years. Mikel Arteta looked set to replace him until Unai Emery emerged from the shadows. He looks to be a solid choice after dominating the Europa League with Sevilla and winning domestic trophies with PSG, although he failed to crack their ultimate target of the Champions League. 

Unai Emery has the task of trying to get Arsenal back into the top four 

Arsenal have not spent massively, but seem to be happy with the additions they have made with what are modest fees in today’s market. They have a new goalkeeper, defensive reinforcements and a much needed genuine holding midfielder. In Aubameyang and Lacazette they have two excellent strikers who they will hope can form a potent partnership. As mentioned elsewhere, I particularly fancy the former to go well. See the ‘Specials’ post for more. 

With a new manager after two decades, it is difficult to predict what Arsenal will produce this season. Emery needs to make Arsenal harder to beat, especially away from home. However, they need to make up a 12 point deficit on the top four and will again have the annoying Thursday/Sunday fixture list to contend with.  There should be improvement, but I’m not sure there will be enough for a Champions League place.

Tips:

Putting all my eggs in one basket with City to retain their title, Liverpool to come second and Mourinho to implode and depart at some point, I’ll go with the following:

Top 3 Correct Order:

Man City / Liverpool / Tottenham 16/1 (Bet365)

Man City / Liverpool / Chelsea 16/1 (Bet365)

Top 4 Correct Order

Man City / Liverpool / Chelsea / Tottenham 33/1 (SkyBet)

Man City / Liverpool / Tottenham / Chelsea 40/1 (SkyBet)

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Premier League Final Day Tips

Huddersfield’s celebrations can continue with a win over Arsenal 

Huddersfield 19/4

Mission accomplished for Huddersfield after two unexpected draws at Man City and Chelsea secured a second season in the Premier League. As long as they’ve got enough energy in the tank after those efforts they’re a big price to end Arsenal Wenger’s reign with a defeat. Arsenal have lost all of their seven away league games this year, so it’s hard to work out why they’re 4/7. West Brom 5/2 DNB The Baggies did the business last week and are good value to finish on a high at Selhurst Park, although they face a tough task against Palace who are ending the season strongly and have the chance to secure a top half finish. West Ham and Everton to Draw 5/2 This has all the makings of a very low key game. The Hammers have drawn two of their last three at home, while Everton have drawn three of their last five. Other bets: Stoke 16/5 Patrick Van Aanholt anytime Scorer 13/2 Kane to score 2 or more 9/5

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Premier League Tips 5/6th May

Zaha and Sakho can help seal Stoke’s fate on Saturday 

Crystal Palace 9/5

Stoke need 6 points from their last two games to have any chance of staying up, but Palace can condemn them to Championship football next season. With Stoke’s need to attack, the game could play into the hands of Zaha and Townsend. Palace have no problems scoring goals and have kept clean sheets in their last two games.

Everton 19/10

A first league win in nearly 3 months has suddenly given Southampton a real chance of staying up. However, I’m not sure how that warrants them to be favourites to beat Everton. The Toffees have won 10 home games this season and despite all of the complaints about Allardyce, they’ve won four of their last seven, including four clean sheets. The only doubt is that Southampton have more motivation to win this game, but the prices still look wrong. 

West Brom Double Chance 9/5

Another fantastic win last week took Darren Moore’s points tally to 8 points from 4 games. Considering they’ve beaten Man Utd and drawn against Liverpool, they must be worth a chance to take something from their home game with Spurs.

BTTS ACCA

Yes in all games on Saturday and Sunday, covering that with No in the Stoke, Man City and Arsenal matches for 8 lines.

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Premier League Tips 28th April

Newcastle to Win & BTTS 10/3

I’m not a big fan of this type of bet, however it looks the obvious choice when Newcastle have the opportunity to officially relegate West Brom on Saturday.

Newcastle have won their last four at home, while West Brom are probably regretting not giving Darren Moore the job instead of Pardew after winning at Old Trafford and coming back from two down against Liverpool.

Ayoze Perez is in good from with three goals in his last four, and there’s some 13/5 available for him to continue that good run by scoring anytime.

Bournemouth DNB 5/2

This is more about not fancying Southampton, who are as short as 4/6 despite not winning at St Mary’s since the end of November. They have shown signs of life recently with unfortunate 3-2 losses to Chelsea and Arsenal, and a decent point at Leicester. A win here would give them a chance of a great escape with games against Everton and Swansea to come.

The reason for the skinny odds on the Saints, not just because this is a must win, is that Bournemouth are safe for another season and have nothing to play for except local pride. However, the pressure is firmly on Southampton and it’s hard to ignore that home record.

Swansea 4/1 DNB 

The Swans are unbeaten in their last five at home and although Chelsea have won their last two away (one after being 2-0 down at Southampton), I’m not convinced by them and it’s worth taking a chance on Swansea to get something which will more or less secure their safety. 

And a bonus bet. . . 

There’s also a bet worth having in the Championship. Hull were part of an amazing 5-5 draw with Bristol City last week and there have been four or more goals in four of their last five games. They face Cardiff who must win after Fulham beat Sunderland tonight. Over 4.5 goals is 4/1.

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Premier League Tips 14-15th April

Kenedy, on loan from Chelsea, can help Newcastle beat Arsenal

Newcastle 23/10

The Toon have pulled clear of relegation after three wins on the bounce. They have also won their last at St James’, including a victory over Man Utd.  Arsenal have started their usual end of season flourish, but that has been mainly down to some kind home fixtures and they have lost their last four away in the league.  With the top four long gone, Arsene Wenger’s focus is on the Europa League and he may well rotate for this game, which makes a Newcastle win even more appealing.

Swansea to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1  21/10

Swansea’s recent home form (won their last four) has given them a chance of staying up and they couldn’t ask for much better opponents than Everton on Saturday. Two of those four were 1-0 wins for The Swans. The Toffees have nothing to play for and prior to their win at Stoke had lost their five consecutive away games, conceding at least twice on four occasions. Bearing all that in mind, the best way to back Swansea could be on the correct score group betting.

Southampton DNB 9/4

There was a hint of hope for The Saints as they put in their best performance for a long time in a 3-2 defeat at The Emirates last weekend. Chelsea’s top four hopes are all but over after their draw at home to West Ham, where they were fortunate to hang on for a point. They’ve lost their last three away games and five of their last eight overall. I’m not saying Southampton will definitely win, but at least you’ll get your money back if they don’t lose.

Anytime Scorers

Roberto Pereyra 7/2

The Watford midfielder has scored in his last two and has a great chance to make that three against Huddersfield.

Christian Eriksen 3/1

Spurs will fancy their chances after City’s three defeats in a week. At 13/8 they’re a bit short to tip outright, but I want to back them in some way. Christian Eriksen is in fantastic form and has scored twice in his last two, although it’s still three in my book. With City looking tired in the second half of their last two games, the midfielder should get a some good sights of goal. 

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Premier League tips 10-12th March

Chris Wood can lead Burnley to a win at the London Stadium 

Burnley 13/5 to beat West Ham 

Sean Dyche’s team finally ended their winless run last weekend, although that actually included a number of credible draws and tight losses. Chris Wood was the match winner from the bench last week and he should start on Saturday. West Ham have been strong at home recently, losing just one of their last eight. However, they are back under relegation pressure after some heavy defeats in three of their last four, and will have to put out a makeshift defence.

The Hammers have scored in each of those recent defeats, so the 15/2 on Burnley to win and BTTS is an even better value alternative.

Crystal Palace 5/2 Double Chance against Chelsea

Admittedly, this is a more tentative selection. Palace are back in the bottom three but are due some luck after last minute defeats to Spurs and Manchester United, and they might just get some at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have a strong home record, but fired blanks in their recent draw against Leicester, which followed on from a thrashing by Bournemouth. They have lost four of their last five and were heavily criticised for their feeble tactics and performance at Man City last week. Palace have scored in six consecutive away games, and if they can make that seven they will fancy their chances of getting a result.

Anytime Scorers

Ki Sung-Yeung 10/1 - Has two in his last three and is as short as 4s

Mahrez 10/3 - Back in the Leicester team and on form. Should get plenty of opportunities against West Brom. 

Bernando Silva 21/10  - Has scored in his last two and is making the most of his opportunity with Sterling injured. 

BTTS ACCA 

There’s potential for goals galore in the Premier League this weekend and I’m going for BTTS in seven of the ten games, with the exceptions being Man Utd v Liverpool, Newcastle v Southampton and Stoke v Man City. This pays 615/1 with Bet365, although I’ll be covering the bet with ‘Yes’ in those three games for eight lines/bets in total.

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Premier League Tips 30th December

Chelsea to win & BTTS 15/8

The Blues have won their last six home games and should comfortably make it seven against Stoke. The Potters have lost six on the road, including thrashings at Spurs and Man City. However, despite their struggles they have scored in eight of their ten away games, including those at Wembley and The Etihad. With the possibility of Chelsea rotating ahead of their game at Arsenal, I’ll take a chance on them finding the net again in another defeat. 

Man Utd to win & BTTS 11/5

United are definitely going through a sticky spell and needed an injury time equaliser against Burnley, cue a Mourinho moan about a lack of money. They are also leaking goals, conceding twice in four of their last five league games, as well as when losing at Bristol City in the cup. However, one of the teams they would want to play right now is Southampton, who slipped further into a relegation fight after shipping five at Spurs. Similarly to Stoke, the Saints have been doing ok in front of goal, scoring in seven of their last eight and carry enough of a threat to breach United’s leaky defence. 

Burnley 13/5

A simple case of the bookies pricing this game up the wrong way round. Huddersfield are as short as 13/10 with Burnley, who are ten points ahead of their opponents and have conceded 15 fewer, as big as 13/5. As long as they’re not too disheartened by conceding late at Old Trafford, they are good value for a fifth win on the road. 

Abdoulaye Doucoure 4/1 anytime scorer 

The midfielder is Watford's top scorer with six goals and has scored in two of his last four home games, as well as providing the shot that went in via Kasper Schmeichel on Tuesday. He can add to that against Swansea who are rock bottom, were dreadful against Liverpool and made the strange appointment of Carlos Carvahal this week - better than Tony Pulis I suppose. 

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Premier League Tips 26-28th December

Hopefully a few of these can bring some extra Christmas pocket money and help reimburse that over priced present you felt obliged to buy.

Leicester 15/8

Can’t figure out why Watford are favourites for this. The Hornets have started their annual second half of the season slump early with 5 defeats from their last 6, and 8 from their last 11. The Foxes were fortunate to snatch a last minute draw against Man Utd, but they’ve won their last two away games and have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away from the King Power. They should be able to manage that again against the league’s third leakiest defence and claim another victory.

Everton 9/4

Many Evertonians were understandably sceptical about appointing Allardyce, but he has completely turned their season around - unbeaten in 5, battling draws against Liverpool and Chelsea and 3 clean sheets. Contrast that to the Baggies and Pardew, who are winless in 5, with 2 points and 2 goals. The Toffees look decent value to continue those sequences at The Hawthorns.

Palace 5/2 DNB

There’s no way Arsenal should be odds on for this. Aside from thrashing Everton in Koeman’s last game, they’ve won once away from home (a dubious last minute penalty at Burnley) and have scored just 4 in 8 games. Palace will be disappointed with letting their lead slip at Swansea, but that draw stretched their unbeaten run to 8 games. They have also scored twice in their last six games at Selhurst and will fancy doing the same against Arsenal’s vulnerable defence. Of those 6 games, 3 have ended in 2-1 victories and the others in 2-2 draws, which are both priced at a tempting 14/1.

BTTS & Over 2.5 goals acca 23/1 - All the B’s!

Bournemouth v West Ham - The Cherries are on a shocking run and find themselves in the bottom 3 so must get a result from this game, while The Hammers have scored 5 in their last 2 which were against other strugglers.

Bristol City v Reading - this has occurred in City’s last 4 home games and 3 of Reading’s last 4 away.

Blackburn v Rochdale - has come in on 5 of Blackburn’s last 8 and in 4 of Rochdale’s last 5 away.

Bradford v Peterborough - has been the case in 5 of Bradford’s last 6 and 4 of Posh’s last 6.

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Premier League Tips - 25/26th November

Bournemouth 9/5 to beat Swansea

The Cherries are in great form, with three wins from their last four. All of those victories saw them keep clean sheets and include wins on the road at Newcastle and Stoke.

Swansea are on a shocking run. They’ve lost five of their six home games and six of their last seven.

Watford 5/2 to beat Newcastle

The Hornets got back to winning ways last week and have scored twice in each of their six away games and if they can do the same at St James’ Park they should have enough to beat Newcastle. The Geordies have lost their last three and failed to score in two of those.

Everton 4/1 to beat Southampton

This is more about opposing the stuttering Saints (again) than having confidence in the toiling Toffees. Southampton failed to manage a single shot on target at Anfield last week and mustered a miserly four in three games before that. That should give a struggling Everton defence confidence and at least they’re scoring some goals, finding the net at least twice in three of their last four.

Burnley 5/1 or 7/2 DNB against Arsenal

A huge price on Burnley at home this season has been over due. No way should they be 5/1 to beat Arsenal who have lost four of their six away games. Sean Dyche’s team are unbeaten in five at Turf Moor and have kept five clean sheets in their last seven.

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Premier League tips 28-30th October

Brighton are in good form and can edge out Southampton 

It was a case of hitting the post and the crossbar last time, as Newcastle twice let their lead slip at Southampton. That game was also the last leg of the goals acca, but an unexpected goal fest put paid to that. Brighton were also seconds away from beating Everton but conceded a last minute penalty. To rub salt in to the wound, Okazaki didn’t play for Leicester in what turned out to be Shakespeare’s last game in charge, but scored the winner in their next game at Swansea. Hoping form a bit more luck this week. 

West Ham 12/5 to beat Palace

Although West Ham have shown in the last week that they’re completely unpredictable, any team who are outsiders to beat Palace have to be backed. The Hammers pulled off a 150/1 comeback against Spurs in the week, which may well have saved Bilic’s job. They have to build on that momentum against rock bottom Palace, who since pulling off a surprise win over Chelsea have lost to Newcastle and were thrashed by Bristol City in the cup. West Ham also have Andy Carroll back after his one game ban. 

Brighton 23/10 to beat Southampton

I’m sticking with Brighton as they’re again decent value to beat a team they look evenly matched with. They’ve taken seven points (should have been nine!) from their last three games at the AMEX and were also impressive in brushing aside West Ham. The Saints continue to be unconvincing and they could have easily only taken only a point from their home games with Newcastle and West Brom, but managed to sneak away with four. In what looks sure to be a tight game, I think the Seagulls will pinch it.

Burnley 19/10 to beat Newcastle

So far Sean Dyche’s side have reversed their form from last season, as they have won just one of their four home games, and that was a fortunate victory against Palace. However, the loss at Man City last week was their first defeat in seven and they were in that game until 73 minutes. Newcastle have got off to a great start and have lost just one of their last seven, but I don’t think they should be favourites for this. As long as Burnley can put aside the speculation about their manager they can come away with the win. 

Spurs would have definitely been tipped, but the news that Harry Kane is out of their trip to Old Trafford has put me off, and unsurprisingly their odds have drifted slightly. However, in their current form and with United struggling in the last couple of weeks, I still think they’ll get a result. 

Anytime Scorer:

Abdoulaye Doucoure 10/3

The Frenchman has been a sensation so far for the Hornets and has three in his last six. He’s a good price to find the net again against Stoke, who are in the bottom three after a run of four defeats in five and are leaking goals. 

Goals Acca: 13/2

Watford v Stoke BTTS

Leicester v Everton BTTS

Brighton v Southampton Under 2.5 goals

Burnley v Newcastle Under 2.5 goals 

For an ambitious 20/1 fivefold you can throw in Under 2.5 goals in the Arsenal v Swansea game, which is a generous looking 15/8. The Swans have been dreadful at home but their four away games have seen just three goals scored and they can frustrate the Gunners. 

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Premier League Tips 14-16th October

After a month off due to an early season holiday, as well as another dour International break, I’m looking forward to actually seeing some football this weekend and hopefully make some profit.  

Joselu and Newcastle could be celebrating at St Mary’s this weekend 

Newcastle 23/10 DNB against Southampton 

Southampton’s struggles from last season at St Mary’s have continued as they’ve failed to score in three of their four home games so far. Newcastle have only scored once in three away games so, but this is set up for them to produce a similar performance and result to their 1-0 win at Swansea. 

I had a dabble on Southampton to be relegated at 28/1 before their loss to Man United two game weeks ago and you can still get 25/1 with Skybet and Paddy Power.

Brighton 9/4 to beat Everton 

The Seagulls have won their last two at home and will fancy their chances of making it three against Everton. The Toffees have lost four of their last five in the league and failed to score in each of those defeats, which admittedly included Chelsea, Tottenham and Man Utd. They’ve also had disappointing results in the Europa League, with a 3-0 loss away to Atalanta and a home draw against Apollon Limassol.

Okazaki 2/1 to score anytime

Jamie Vardy leads the Leicester goal scoring charts, however the Japanese striker has found the net three times so far, including two at the King Power. He can add to that against a surprisingly leaky West Brom defence who have conceded seven in their last four. 

Under 2.5 goals Acca 11/2 Bet365

On paper it doesn’t look like being a goals fest this weekend, so I’m going against my usual instinct to back goals with four games that should be tight and low scoring.

Burnley v West Ham  - Burnley have only scored once in three games at Turf Moor, while the Hammers have tightened up at the back with three clean sheets in their last four.

Swansea v Huddersfield - The Swans have lost three from three at the Liberty so far, scoring only once. After winning their first two, Huddersfield have blanked in four of their last five.

Brighton v Everton  - Five of Brighton’s seven games have seen this bet land and Everton’s recent troubles in front of goal have been highlighted above.

Southampton v Newcastle - Also see above.

A slightly more ambitious accumulator on the above games would be Both Teams NOT To Score at just under 9/1. 

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Football League Tips 9th September

Cardiff 13/5 (Bet365 & Betfair) to beat Fulham

Not sure how any team who are top of the league and have started the season with five straight wins can be as big as 13/5 it make it six. Fulham got their first win of the season against Ipswich last time out, but have struggled at home with just one goal in two games so far. In their last away game Neil Warnock’s side beat a strong Wolves team who are expected to strongly challenge for promotion. Their run will come to an end at some point but at the prices they are clear value. 

Ipswich 16/5 (Bet365)

Ipswich let me down last time when their 100% start was ended by losing to Fulham. However, they have won both of their away games, although QPR have done the same at home so it should be a tight game. However, I don’t think a team who have won four of their first five should be as big as 16/5.

Stevenage 9/5 (General) to beat Lincoln

Stevenage sit second in League Two with three wins and a draw from their opening five games and have scored three goals in both of their home fixtures. Lincoln are in mid table after a steady start, but have only picked up a point from their two away games and don’t deserve to be favourites for this. 

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Premier League Tips 9-11th September

Liverpool 3/1 (General) to beat Man City

Liverpool’s excellent recent form against the top six continued against Arsenal and I’m surprised that they’re not around the 9/4 mark for this one. Their front three have clicked straight into gear with seven goals between them in the league and will fancy their chances of adding to that against a City defence who are still getting to know each other. They will be hoping to replicate the opening half an hour of their 4-1 victory two seasons ago, albeit this time Salah will be starting instead of Coutinho, who Klopp has not even included in the squad. City have stuttered so far and if it wasn’t for Sterling’s late goals against Everton and Bournemouth, they would have four points instead of seven.

There should obviously be goals and I also like Skybet’s enhanced price of 7/1 for Aguero and Firmino to both score. Aguero has scored in his last three home games against the Reds, and although Mane and Salah are getting most of the headlines, Firmino has been brilliant so far and already has three to his name. 

Bournemouth 6/1 DNB or 12/5 Double Chance (Betfair) against Arsenal

I’m not sure how anyone could back Arsenal at 4/11 to win any game at the moment. After scraping past Leicester and losing at Stoke, they were fortunate to escape from Anfield with only a four goal hiding. Bournemouth showed good discipline and organisation to restrict City to a handful of chances and as long as they’re not too disheartened from losing that game in the 97th minute they will fancy their chances of getting a result at The Emirates. The longer they can frustrate Arsenal the better and with the home side’s makeshift defence the Cherries are bound to get some chances to pile on the misery to Wenger and light the fuse for Arsenal Fan TV.

West Brom 2/1 (General) to beat Brighton

Brighton were much better going forward against Watford and only a post denied them their first three points. However, the fact is they still haven’t scored and if you’re struggling to find the net then West Brom are one of the last teams you’d want to play. The Baggies are also boosted by the return of Jonny Evans, plus new signings Gibbs and Krychowiak. They would have secured a third consecutive 1-0 win against Stoke but for a mix up between Foster and Hegazi, but I fancy them to make up for that at the AMEX. 

There could be more of this to come for Joe Hart and West Ham on Monday 

Huddersfield 7/2 (bet365) to beat West Ham

Arguably the price of this round of fixtures. West Ham, bottom of the league and 10 goals conceded in three games, are odds on to beat Huddersfield who are undefeated and yet to concede. Despite that, the Hammers will be expected to win their first home game purely because it’s against one of the promoted sides. However, after their poor start and with Bilic already under pressure, Huddersfield are a huge banana skin. The Terriers can continue to be difficult to break down and as they showed at Palace, are more than capable of hitting vulnerable defences on the break.