big12pickparty

[big12pickparty]

Week 8 Big 12 Picks: It’s AG-STRAVAGANZA week!

Photo cred: Pistols Firing.

Glad to be writing about football again. The Big 10 is back this weekend, as is the Mountain West. The Big 12 has five games on its slate. It’s almost like we have a normal weekend of football in front of us!

A few interesting matchups outside the Big 12: Nebraska at No. 5 Ohio State, No. 23 NC State at No. 14 North Carolina are both in the morning slot. No. 18 Michigan at No. 21 Minnesota, No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 16 SMU are the best non-Big 12 games in the evening, though if you haven’t seen Zach Wilson play yet, staying up for No. 12 BYU vs. Texas State might be worth your while. Wilson is a compelling watch even with the inferior competition.

I’m also curious, in the extremely unlikely event that Nebraska opens its season by beating Ohio State--the Buckeyes are 26-point favorites--how high the Huskers climb. The hype would be unbearable. NU hasn’t beaten Ohio State since first joining the Big 10 in 2011, losing five straight since.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)

Overall: 12-10 (.545)

Kansas 0, No. 20 Kansas State 45. K-State recently lost Skylar Thompson for the year to injury, which severely dampens the Wildcats’ hopes of challenging for the conference crown. KU, on the other hand, lost Pooka Williams, which severely dampens their hopes of scoring points in this game or any other.

Oklahoma 34, TCU 30. OU is about as likely to lose this game - it would be their third in a row - as a pig would be to voluntarily attend a barbecue. The Frogs are just 1-8 against the Sooners since joining the Big 12. That lone victory came in 2014--not, as I recall, Bob Stoops’s best year. Nevertheless, OU is only a 6.5-point favorite, and I don’t think the Sooners cover here.

No. 17 Iowa State 21, No. 6 Oklahoma State 31. I saw someone on Twitter suggest that these two schools need their own trophy for this game. I think it was an ISU fan. I like the idea, but what would the trophy be, and what would the game be called? I think the trophy should be a tractor. (Call the game the AG-STRAVAGANZA!) Mike Gundy played it coy with the media this week, saying that both Shane Illingworth and Spencer Sanders could both see meaningful playing time this week. A good move on his part. They’re such different quarterbacks. Despite the win over OU, I’m not entirely sold on Iowa State. Brock Purdy has played a lot of hero-ball, at least when I’ve been watching, and that will not fly with this OSU secondary. Vegas is expressing very little confidence in the Pokes this weekend (-3), and I can see why. OSU has lost quite a few of these type games over the past four years. Plus, this series has developed the feel of an actual rivalry game in that time: since 2015 not a single game between these two has been decided by more than a touchdown. ISU only won one of those games, however. The Pokes own a 32-19-3 edge all-time. I see them making this the first non-one-score affair between these two Land Grant schools in awhile. Also, don’t miss this opportunity to look back on Tylan Wallace on the same play destroying not one, not two, not three, but four (four!) different Iowa State defenders last year. May all four of them rest in peace.

Baylor 38, Texas 37. I don’t like picking Baylor. Picking Baylor to win makes me grind my teeth. Makes me want to throw up on the nearest Southern Baptist I can find. Worse, picking these particular Baptists to score an upset makes me want to roll around on the ground and eat grass Nebuchadnezzar-style. But I’ll take Baylor in the upset this week. I guess I’ll book a trip to the dentist. In any case, I think Tom Herman is either oblivious or he just says things that make him sound that way when he’s nervous. Earlier this week he said that “I think the general pulse of the team is that we're in as good a place as we've ever been right now as a team”. When you consider he said this less than a week after losing to OU. When you consider his team is 2-2, and should be 1-3. All I can say is that these are the words of a man who is either scared, or an idiot, or both. Anyway: Baylor and UT have met every year since 1923, and a total of 109 times. Texas owns a 78-27-4 advantage. The Horns lost 24-10 last year in Waco. This is the kind of game that, if Texas loses it, may very well get Herman a pink slip. Baylor hasn’t played since the third of this month. I haven’t researched it much, but here’s my position on the Eyes of Texas. If the band that has to play the fucking song doesn’t want to play it, because they think it’s racist, and if the players who play for the team that the fans cheer for don’t want to hear it, because they, the players, think it’s racist, then why on earth would you play the fucking song?

West Virginia 26, Texas Tech 21. Tech showed no signs of life in their recent 31-15 loss to Iowa State. WVU has a pretty good defense. Should be good enough in Lubbock, too, I think.

...

PS: I spent most of the past week working on finishing a long piece about Belmont University’s ties to private prisons and the most successful human trafficker in American history. It went live yesterday, and if you want to read it, you can here. 

[big12pickparty]

Week 7 Big 12 Picks: Kick Baylor out of the conference week

Is this the worst slate of games (slate of game?) in Big 12 history?

Also, for some reason we have only one Big 12 game this weekend. Actually, the reason is Baylor, who had to postponed their tilt against OSU. 

Sorry these picks are so late. This has been quite a week.

Last week: 2-1 (.666)

Overall: 11-10 (.523)

Kansas 21, West Virginia 38. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say this is the word slate in Big 12 history. If you consider the Big 8 the true parent of our present shambles of a conference, I’d go ahead and say it’s worse than anything the Big 8 ever put on the table. This is the only game. Literally the only fucking game. Kansas vs. West-Motherfucking-Virginia. Two teams that have absolutely zero geographic resonance, no history, and neither of which are a contender for literally anything in terms of the conference title. WVU is 8-1 against the Jayhawks since the Mountaineers joined the conference. The teams played one other time, in 1941, a game the ‘Eers won 21-0.

[big12pickparty]

Week 6 Big 12 Picks: Red River Sadvalry Edition

The last time OU-Texas was played on a weekend after both teams lost? Probably the last time the game took place at a completely empty Texas State Fairgrounds. 

Last week: 2-3 (.400)

Overall: 9-9 (.500)

No. 22 Texas 52, Oklahoma 55. While Sam Ehlinger is starting this game for a record fifth straight season as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback--and could be back for a sixth--Oklahoma has won four of the past five Red River Showdowns, the lone exception coming in 2018. The real stat here for me is that no matter what happens, in Big 12 play, either OU ends up 0-3 or Texas ends up 1-2. Predicting OU losing a third straight conference game would be a little like predicting the moon would explode, which is really the only reason I’m going with the Sooners here. According to Berry Tramel, the Sooners have only entered this game with two losses three times in the past 22 years. The previous times were 2005 and 2016. OU lost in ‘05 and won in 2016. Baker Mayfield quarterbacked that 2016 team. The QB in ‘05 was a fellow named Rhett Bomar. I’ll take the Sooners in a big, stupid, wonderful game this year.

Texas Tech 27, No. 24 Iowa State 21. Sure, watching ISU beat the Sooners in Ames for the first time in sixty-odd years last week was extraordinarily delightful, but I’m not ready to buy stock just yet. The most interesting thing to me in that game was that through three quarters, it didn’t feel like the Cyclones were playing particularly well. Even though ISU survived, Brock Purdy was extremely careless with the football. I guess the thing is that if it feels like Iowa State should never beat OU--and it does--if they do manage to do so, it feels like they should only be able to do it through a particularly heroic effort. That wasn’t the story for Purdy last Saturday.

Kansas State 27, TCU 24. I expect a hard-fought game from these two teams. I have a bit more faith in the Wildcats, so I’m going with them, even with TCU coming off its second straight victory over the Horns. These two teams are 4-4 against each other since the Toads joined the Big 12.

[big12pickparty]

Week 5 Big 12 Picks: Wasn’t Last Week Fun?

Photo cred: CBS Sports

I went 2-3 last week, and had a terrific time. Sometimes the straight-up record doesn’t show how good the picks were (just as the straight-up picks, even if I go undefeated, don’t always reflect well on what I actually predicted would happen). I had OU fending off K-State in a much closer than expected battle, and Tech upsetting Texas, which damn nearly (should’ve) happened.

Also: I’m working on some new stuff for this blog. Possible new name, new platform next week. Tumblr is a deadzone. The main thing that will be different is a way to subscribe to the blog through email.

I’m making these late-night picks from a Best Western in Tulsa.

Last week: 2-3 (.400)

Overall: 7-6 (.538)

TCU 31, No. 9 Texas 34. I expect another close one from the Longhorns. They were very fortunate to beat the tortilla-twirlers last week. I expect Gary Patterson’s squad to respond well to their defeat against the Clones.

Baylor 28, West Virginia 24. Frankly, I have no idea what to say here. Baylor is favored by 1.5. That’s all I got.

No. 17 Oklahoma State 42, Kansas 10. I read somewhere recently (Pistols Firing?) that, other than their in-state rivals down I-35, the Pokes have played KU more than any other conference opponent. KU won six straight from 1990 to the end of the Big 8 in 1996. The Pokes are 15-1 since. I think we’ll see more offense from the Pokes here than any other game so far this season, though I think more will come in the second half than the first.

Texas Tech 32, Kansas State 35. The line favors the Wildcats by 2.5 here, which I assume is just credit for the fact that they beat OU last week. Generally one gives the home-team a 3-point advantage, which means this game is a true toss-up. I believe in Klieman.

No. 18 Oklahoma 52, Iowa State 27. I kind of feel bad for the Cyclones here, although I think they have a chance. OU teams, for most of the past twenty years,have beaten the piss out of anyone they’ve played after a loss. I’d love to see an ISU uprising here, but find it pretty unlikely.

[big12pickparty]

Week 4 Big 12 Picks: Baylor Plays a Tackle Football Game! The Attack of the Hornéd Frogs!

 hope you guys like the really long title of this week’s post. It’s a really long title. I’ve decided that just calling things “Week X Big 12 Picks” really kind of blows. It’s too bland. Maybe next week we’ll call the post “Week 5 Tackle Football Explosion Torrential Downpour Non-Covid-Related Football Pickeroos” or something like that.

Anyway. There’s actually a pretty good slate of games tomorrow. The SEC’s finally getting in on the action, and it’s Friday in Nashville, America, and I’m sure that the whole state of Tennessee is totally butt-puckering to watch their No. 16-ranked Volunteers drop a big ole dooky against the ‘Cocks tomorrow night in the lower, smaller, and dumber of the Carolinas.

This is my first season watching football in SEC country, but I remember being in Nashville last Thanksgiving when the once-mighty Vols dropped their night game against Vandy. It was pretty sweet looking at all those long faces. Did you folks know that Sewanee used to be part of the SEC?

On to the pickerooskis!

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)

Overall: 5-3 (.625)

Kansas State 28, No. 3 Oklahoma 38. One of the most pleasant moments of the 2019 season was certainly watching OU get shithoused in Manhattan. The 48-41 final score in no way displayed how brutal it was. (One never expects the Goonsquad to lose to K-State, but it happens with a frequency that folks in Stillwater can only dream about! The purple Kansans are 3-5 against OU over the last eight years.) I think the Sooners at -28 may be a tad optimistic. Then again, I’m always cheerfully optimistic about the Manhattanites against OU.

Iowa State 20, TCU 17. I predicted this score before looking up the line, which is ISU -3. So far, this season has been a tale of teams that have played a game being definitively better than ones that haven’t. I’m looking for that to hold true in ISU-TCU.

No. 8 Texas 35, Texas Tech 38. Texas is a 17.5-point favorite, but why not a little craziness in Lubbock? It’s a crazy year. Tech has beaten the Horns twice since 2015, though both of the Tortilla Coalition’s victories happened in Austin.

West Virginia 17, No. 15 Oklahoma State 24. With OSU’s paltry showing on offense--offensive!--last week against Tulsa, it’s hard to know what to expect here. We still haven’t gotten any official word on who will start at quarterback. Also, OSU’s offensive line was terrible against TU, giving up six sacks, while WVU boasts a pretty stout defensive interior. Could be a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, if OSU starts Illingworth, who looked like The Next Big Thing last week when he came on in the fourth quarter, I think the Pokes will handle the Mountaineers.

Kansas 24, Baylor 21. Just being consistent here (KU has, if you could call it that, actually played a game). Also I’m sad Baylor wasn’t canceled for the second consecutive week. Cancel Culture is totally cool when it comes to the Baylor Baptists.

[big12pickparty]

Week 3 Big 12 Picks, Plus Playoff Quagmires

Photo cred: Tulsa World

Welp, folks, the season is barely underway and the Big 12 - or at least several teams expected to fill out the middle of the conference (looking at you, K-State and Iowa State) - looked like dogshit, smelled like dogshit, and even played like dogshit last weekend, losing to titanic foes like Arkansas State and the mighty Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana (formerly Louisiana-Monroe). Phew. That was a long sentence. Iowa State looked the worst of the bunch, but I might be letting Texas Tech off the hook too easy. The Red Raiders only barely sneaked by Houston Baptist, 35-33. Sheesh. Also, Kansas. Kansas. Kansas. Say it with me, say it slowly: Kansassssssss.

This week we’ve only got one game. Oklahoma State, which moved up to No. 11 in the most recent AP poll, on account of non-playing teams being removed from the poll. Of course, the Big 10 just voted to play an eight game slate--resuming operations on October 23. The Pac-12 might be next. How all this shakes out is anybody’s guess.

And how, at season’s end, is the playoff committee going to evaluate teams? How do you evaluate teams that play totally different amounts of games? Consider this scenario: 

Clemson loses a game to someone terribly mediocre - or shits and giggles let’s say it’s Duke - but wins the ACC. 

Alabama goes 9-2. Their only losses are to Auburn in the regular season, and Georgia in in the SEC championship.

Georgia goes 9-1, but beats Bama in the SEC championship. Their losses are to Florida and Missouri. They also happened to have one of their toughest regular season tilts, against Georgia, canceled. So they’ve played one fewer game than the Big 12 teams.

Oklahoma goes 10-1, undefeated in the regular season, but with a loss to OSU in the title game.

Oklahoma State goes 9-2, pounding OU in the Big 12 title game. But they’ve lost two games in the regular season, both close ones to OU and Texas.

Here’s where it gets really tricky: Ohio State goes 8-1, winning the Big 10 title game. Their only loss is to their chief rival, Michigan (6-2), and that game was not close. They’ve also played two fewer games.

Also, let’s imagine that the Pac 12 votes to have an abbreviated season, with teams only playing only divisional opponents. Both Oregon and USC go undefeated, but the championship game is canceled on account of coronavirus concerns. Oregon in particular is especially dominant, without a single one of their games being close.

How on earth would the committee untangle such a nightmare? I feel totally sure they’d do a great job, don’t you?

***

Last week: 4-3 (.570)

Overall: 4-3

No. 11 Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 21. To put it mildly, this has been a nightmarish off-season for Mike Gundy. He’s under more pressure, and more scrutiny, than at any point in his entire career. I’m of two minds about how this could go for OSU this season: either they win the conference, or they sputter to another 7-3 type season. If the latter happens, Mike Gundy is finished. He has all the tools this year, more returning firepower than any year since 2011. On paper, OSU has the best talent in the conference on offense, and arguably the best defense. But I can see them sputtering out of the gate. Hope they don’t.

[big12pickparty]

Week 1? Week 2? Big 12 Picks

I’m waaaaay late folks, getting picks in to start this season, in-part because I’ve just been afraid that the season would never start, and have to say I’m still not a firm believer we’re gonna make it all the way through . . . but damn is it good to have football back.

Is this week one? Week two? I think this is week two.

I’m writing this around noon, and you’re seeing some struggling, some rustiness from teams we thought would dominate.

My final standings prediction:

1. Oklahoma 2. Oklahoma State 3. Texas 4. K-State 5. Iowa State 6. TCU 7. Baylor 8. Tech 9. WVU 10. Kansas

I don’t feel terribly confident here. OU’s breaking in a new quarterback and replacing a ton. OSU has the best offensive talent, maybe defensive talent in the league. At this point I don’t have confidence in Gundy to get it done. If Lincoln Riley were head coach in Stilly instead of Norman, OSU would be the no-brainer pick. But he ain’t.

Week One? Two? Picks:

Louisiana 10, No. 23 Iowa State 35. As I write this ISU is having trouble with the Ragin’ Cajuns going into the half and looking pretty rusty.

Eastern Kentucky 17, West Virginia 44. WVU should work EKU over.

Arkansas State 6, K-State 45. At the time of writing K-State is actually struggling a bit with Arky State, with the score 21-14 at close to half, so this pick reflects what I thought would happen. Arky State already played a game, so they might just be a bit readier.

Missouri State 20, No. 5 Oklahoma 56. How irritated are you, if you’re an OU fan, that this is on Pay-Per-View? Getting a first glimpse of Spencer Rattler was one of the only things I was actually interested in from this weak-ass slate of games.

UTEP 24, No. 14 Texas 42. No surprise here, except Texas always seems to come up with a surprise to start the year over the past few years? So maybe close at half?

Houston Baptist 10, Texas Tech 56. I didn’t know Houston Baptist had a football team.

Coastal Carolina 14, Kansas 17. Why on earth is this game being played at 9pm central time? Why? Why? Why?

SMU/TCU postponed, not made-up yet.

Baylor/La Tech postponed, not made-up yet.

No. 15 Oklahoma State/Tulsa postponed, will be made-up next week.

[big12pickparty]

Week 14 Big 12 Picks: Bedlam Edition

It’s Bedlam, y’all. This picture is from the 1985 game, known as the Ice Bowl. OU blanked the Pokes 12-0 that year. I did not yet exist. My Grandpa, Jim Knapp, had led Smithville High School to its first ever state title earlier that year. Until I went to college in Seattle in 2008, I watched Bedlam every year with him, and every chance I got--which was just 2001 and 2002--I rubbed as much salt in the wound as I could. This year I get to watch Bedlam with my dad for the first time (if I’m not mistaken) since the 2012 game, when I’d returned to Oklahoma to do my master’s degree at OSU. Grandpa was present for that game, too. That one was an all-timer. I think he was pleased.The Sooners won it 51-48 in OT.

My Grandpa loved the Sooners so much he painted his house a Sooner-shade of crimson. When my dad went to play baseball for Gary Ward, my grandpa painted the support poles holding up his balcony OSU orange.

This year’s game will be just the second Bedlam since he died. If the Pokes manage to win this one, I’m gonna do my best to send a message to him in the beyond: HEY GRANDPA. LOOK. LOOK REAL CLOSE.

I don’t think he’d mind.

Last week: 4-1 (.800)

Overall: 47-25 (.652)

FRIDAY:

Texas Tech 28, Texas 27. It feels like Bevo’s been butchered and deposited in the old freezer already, doesn’t it? I thought Texas would have more than a fighting chance against Baylor--even erroneously picked them to upset the Bears--but Texas looked dead on arrival for most of the afternoon. Tech, on the other hand, couldn’t quite get the better of K-State, falling 30-27, courtesy of a 100-yard kick return by KSU’s Joshua Youngblood. Though 4-7, and losers of 5 of their 6 games, Texas Tech hasn’t lost by than 10, and their average margin of loss has been a mere 4.2 points. So this is a team playing tough, but not quite getting there. Margins have been thin in this series, too, of late, as the last four games have been decided by 8 points or less, with Tech winning the last two in Austin.

West Virginia 13, TCU 17. TCU was one horrendous spot short of getting the ball back with about a minute to play in their 24-28 loss to OU last week. It really was one of the worst spots I’ve ever seen in a football game.

SATURDAY

No. 23 Iowa State 27, Kansas State 30. The 102nd game in a series played every year since 1917 finds these two teams perfectly matched. I expect nothing less than a hard fought battle decided in the final minutes. Despite the Wildcats having won 24 of the past 29 Farmageddons, including 10 of the past 11, Iowa State owns a narrow edge at 50-48-4.

No. 9 Baylor 38, Kansas 6. The only sure bet I’ve got this week. Baylor hasn’t lost to Kansas since a fellow named Todd Reesing was under center in Lawrence. Probably won’t this week, either, even though the Jayhawks gave ISU a run for their money in Ames.

BEDLAM. Last year, when folks thought the Sooners were gonna beat the Cowboys by something like a million points, I waited until Friday of Bedlam week and snagged myself a nosebleed ticket at Gaylord Memorial. I’d never watched a game at the so-called Palace on the Prairie. Even if I’ve always felt as if it were the locus of all my lifelong football-related misery, I’d always wanted to take in a Bedlam there, got my chance, wore orange, loaded a little whiskey into a coke bottle, and headed for Norman. It was a fantastic time. Didn’t hurt that the Pokes scared the shit out of the homecrowd. By the end of the night, when Corndog’s 2-pt. conversion pass fell to the turf, I didn’t mind. I’d had such a good time I could barely believe myself. Maybe it’s just that I’m such a deeply contrary person that it was simply fun watching all these people whose colors I hate enter into such a heightened state of anxiety that many of them seemed almost ready to shit themselves. Maybe it was that gorgeous and crisp November light that fell into the stadium just before kickoff and into the first quarter. Or the sunset I watched from the upper deck. I don’t know. It was a thrilling night, even I did get so cold by the end that my teeth were almost chattering and the Pokes lost and it took me over an hour just to pull out of the parking lot I’d used (my opinion of the Norman traffic police is far lower than that of my opinion of their football team, I’ll say that much).

Thus far, my record picking OU’s games this year is 10-1 (I missed the K-State game like everybody else). Picking OSU, I’m 7-4. That mid-point of the Pokes season was pretty tough to get a bead on. But all the evidence is on the table now. OU’s defense has come on strong over the past six quarters of play. OSU’s has turned into one of the conference’s best in the past four games. The main factor here, to me, will be turnovers. The Pokes have produced 10 over their 4-game win streak, with 9 interceptions. Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, has either thrown interceptions or put the ball on the ground 6 times in his last 3 outings. He’s a damn good player, but has looked increasingly sloppy with the ball. That ain’t gonna work against an OSU defense that has been increasingly adept at takeaways, with a safety in Kolby Harvell-Peel that has spent the entire last half of the season playing like an All-American. OSU, on the other hand, is working with one mostly unknown entity in Dru Brown, and one very widely known one in Chuba Hubbard, who only needs 168 rushing yards to break 2,000 on the year.

Turnovers will be the difference, I think. OU has been playing with fire, so much so that these Sooners have reminded me--more than any other squad--of OSU’s so-called ‘Cardiac Cowboy’ teams from 2015-2017. All those Mason Rudolph-led squads that won close game after close game but could never get over the hump in Bedlam. OSU, on the other hand, looks to me like a team playing with a kind of quiet and muscular resolve that is honestly not a very familiar look for the Cowboys. After the last four games, it seems real enough.

Plus, the Pokes are due. I mean, the Pokes have been pretty much due for the entire past century in this game, maybe ever since that first icy debacle at Island Park in Guthrie on 6 November 1904. But I think things are aligned for this Bedlam well as they’ve been for the Pokes in the past five or six years: the Cowboys defense is formidable, they have a legit Heisman contender in Chuba Hubbard, and though hugely talented and well-coached, the Sooners look iffier top-to-bottom than they have since 2014. I think Hurts gets the Sooners out front early, but finally turns it over once-too-many times, Dru Brown is proficient, Hubbard gets his yards, and a final OU drive stalls on the OSU 35 near the west end-zone. No turkey legs are tossed by the homecrowd.

Maybe it’s just a fantasy. A bit like sending a message to the beyond. But these things always are.

No. 7 Oklahoma 24, No. 21 Oklahoma State 30.

GO POKES.

[big12pickparty]

Week 13 Big 12 Picks: Gut check edition

There’s not much I can say about the Sooners massive come from behind victory against Baylor that you haven’t already read, but I will say that the entire second half had a weirdly inexorable quality that, as a lifelong fan of the team that has come up short against OU more than any other (that would be OSU), was painfully familiar.

I managed to go 3-2 last week, and my two losses were decided by a combined total of 6 points. It’s been a tough year to pick this league. This is pretty much my last chance to get my season total up towards a respectable .700 mark, which is still well under what I was aiming for. Just about anybody can get half the games right, and most folks who watch much football at all can get over half, so my goal’s always been to get 75%. Not gonna hit that this year.

Last week: 3-2 (.600)

Overall: 43-23 (.651)

No. 21 Oklahoma State 35, West Virginia 20. The Pokes didn’t have any of the problems I feared last week against KU, and were still pitching a shutout 31-0 with eight minutes to play in the fourth quarter. OSU has won the last four between these two. Chuba Hubbard’s sitting at 1,726 yards with two games to go. Can he make it to 2,000 in the regular season?

Kansas 14, Iowa State 28. Man, it felt good watching Iowa State kick that field goal to beat Texas last week, didn’t it? Kansas has only beaten Iowa State once since 2010. Of course, how many teams has KU beaten more than once since 2010, Mark Mangino’s last year?

Texas 31, Baylor 28. I just have a feeling about this one. Both teams lost in heart-breaking fashion, but Baylor’s was easily far, far worse, blowing a 28-3 lead over the Sooners. In this, the 108th meeting between these two teams, I get the feeling that Baylor has a much higher propensity for coming out flat, now that their Playoff shot is blown.

Kansas State 27, Texas Tech 20. Chris Klieman’s team lost its second in a row last week to lowly WVU. That can’t have felt good. Tech dropped its sixth, to TCU. K-State is 7-1 against the Red Raiders since 2011.

TCU 27, No. 9 Oklahoma 42. I will be pulling hard for the Frogs in this one, as a TCU victory, combined with OSU winning in Morgantown, gives the Pokes a longshot chance at playing in the title game . . . but I really don’t see it happening here. TCU hasn’t managed to beat OU since a wildly entertaining game 37-33 game in Fort Worth. Who knows, though: OU very well might be a bit flat following their emotional win last week in Waco.

[big12pickparty]

Week 12 Big 12 Picks: Battle on the Brazos Edition

Let’s be real here, Sooner fans. How would you feel if @Big12refs hadn’t fucked Iowa State over for the umpteenth time and called pass interference on that final play last week, and the Cyclones converted on their second try, and instead of a 42-41 victory, OU had lost to Iowa State and K-State in consecutive home tilts and was sitting at 8-2 right now?

I’ll wait.

Alex Grinch’s defense, arguably the toast of the conference in the first half of the season, hasn’t snagged a turnover since the 28th of September. The much-maligned defense up I-35 (you’ve gotta take Highway 51 to get there) has nabbed eight in the past three games.

Chuba Hubbard has 1604 yards through 9 games. His nearest competitor, nationally, is Boston College’s AJ Dillon, with 1451. The kicker is that BC has played 10 games, whereas Oklahoma State’s still at 9.

Hubbard’s nearest competition in the Big 12, Jalen Hurts, trails by a meager 734 yards.

That Hubbard isn’t the Heisman front-runner is a goddamn shame.

Last week: 2-2 (.500)

Overall: 40-21 (.655)

Rankings reflect the Almighty Playoff Committee. We’ve got a full slate this week. Home teams (OSU, ISU, and KSU) are favored in three of the five.

Kansas 31, No. 22 Oklahoma State 40. I’m a lot more nervous about this game than I want to be. The Pokes are 17.5-point favorites, but I’m taking KU against the spread.

TCU 21, Texas Tech 24. TCU’s last three losses have all been by a touchdown or less. Tech’s last three have been by less than five points apiece. Tech owns a 32-26-3 all-time edge, and is 4-3 against the Frogs since they joined the Big 12.

No. 19 Texas 31, Iowa State 34. Bevo is one of the last remaining trophies Matt Campbell has yet to tack against the wall of his office in Jack Trice Stadium. This week’s the week.

West Virginia 7, No. 24 Kansas State 45. I don’t do locks, but if I did them, this would be it.

No. 10 Oklahoma 37, No. 13 Baylor 35. This is the 29th meeting between these teams. The Sooners have won 25 of the past 28, with losses in 2011, 2013, and 2014, all against Art Briles. (Fuck Art Briles.) Despite the Bears perfect 9-0 record, OU is a 10-point favorite heading into Waco. One assumes Vegas feels, like many folks nationally--and as the Committee’s No. 13 record implies--that that Matt Rhule squad is a paper tiger. Or a paper bear. Whatever. I think that Baylor actually has, defensively, what it takes to turn Jalen Hurts over more than once. Hurts has been extremely sloppy with the ball of late. Iowa State only manged one pick last week but should’ve ended up with four. I have a feeling we’re looking at an OU blowout or a tight Baylor victory here. Honestly, what makes it really difficult is that both these teams look extremely vulnerable, and I hate both of them. I hate OU like I hate someone I know well, too well, and even, against my better instincts, slightly love. Baylor I hate like the worst person I know. So who to pick, really? On the one hand, after extremely close calls against Iowa State, Tech, WVU, and TCU, it seems like Baylor’s luck has to run out sometime soon. On the other, OU looked like it spent a good portion of its own luck last week against the Cyclones.

[big12pickparty]

Week 11 Big 12 Picks: Revivalry Edition

We finally got our first set of official Playoff committee rankings this week, and the Big 12 came out pretty well. K-State clocked in at 16, four spots higher than their slot in the AP, and Oklahoma State checked in at no. 23, whereas the Pokes weren’t higher than 30th in either of the other polls.

Last week: 3-0 (1.000)

Overall: 38-19 (.666)

No. 12 Baylor 28, TCU 31. The Baptists are only two-point favorites, which tells me there’s not a lot of confidence in the Matt Rhule’s squad maintaining their perfect record. Makes sense when you consider that they nearly lost to Tech and then only managed a 17-14 victory against lowly West Virginia. Meanwhile TCU could not get over the hump against the OSU defense last week. Gary Patterson owns an 8-3 record over Baylor, and I’m going with his Frogs in the upset this, the 114th edition of the Revivalry.

Texas Tech 30, West Virginia 27. Tech may have lost three straight since beating Oklahoma State back on October 5th, but only by an average of less than a touchdown. WVU gave Baylor a solid effort last week. Tough call here.

No. 16 Kansas State 35, Texas 28. The Longhorns are seven point favorites against K-State, which basically just tells me that a lot of UT fans enjoy throwing their money into the wind. Or maybe the bettors are seeing something I’m not. K-State feels like it’s hitting its stride, eviscerating KU last week after upsetting OU.

Iowa State 38, No. 9 Oklahoma 42. I have a feeling that Brock Purdy and Charlie Kolar ares going to give the Sooners a lot more trouble than they were hoping for, though I don’t make a repeat of their last trip to Norman, and head home as victors. Of course, that was iowa State’s first victory against OU since 1990, and only their second since 1961.

[big12pickparty]

Week 10 Big 12 Picks: Scary Edition

All four favorites lost in the league last week, which gave me a cool record of 1-3, my soul victory being my upset pick of Kansas actually winning a conference game, which tells you how nuts the week was.

As I write this, Baylor is up 7-0 over WVU at halftime. I had planned to pick the Baptists to the tune of 38-27 before tuning into the game, thinking they would not pound the Mountaineers, but might have a bit tougher time than expected, especially looking ahead to TCU next week.

If you missed his absolutely stunning TD catch against ISU, click here. It’s worth the watch.

Also: in a scary turn of events for Pokes fans and basically anyone who likes entertaining football anywhere, I’m seeing rumors that OSU’s Tylan Wallace tore his ACL in practice, and underwent an MRI today. Scott Wright of the Oklahoman reports that Wallace’s diagnosis is still pending, though a source told him that Wallace “landed awkwardly in a non-contact play and was pulled out of practice. He later experienced swelling in the knee.“ Per Wright, Wallace may need another MRI Friday.

Last week: 1-3 (.250)

Overall: 35-19 (.648)

THURSDAY

West Virginia 27, No. 12 Baylor 38. See above.

SATURDAY

No. 22 Kansas State 42, Kansas 39. KU came close in the Sunflower Showdown but has lost the last ten in this series, and is only 6-23 in this series since 1990. K-State recorded what was arguably the most impressive upset of the year--certainly the biggest in the Big 12--last week against Oklahoma. I certainly enjoyed it.

TCU 24, Oklahoma State 27. This, the 30th meeting between the Pokes and Frogs, is a very tough game to call, especially with Tylan Wallace’s status in question. It’s probably a safe bet that he won’t play. Though OSU has plenty of playmakers at wide receiver, nobody on the team compares to No. 2, and will make it much easier for Gary Patterson’s team to key in on Chuba Hubbard. I would be a lot more nervous if the Frogs hadn’t beaten Texas last week: it’s always much better to play a well-coached team like Patterson’s after a win than a loss. Of course, the Pokes are coming off a big victory, too. Even without Tylan Wallace, I’m going with OSU at home, on the back of a step-up performance from Dillon Stoner.

Photo cred: Ian Maule

[big12pickparty]

Week 9 Big 12 Picks

This picture is basically OSU football right now.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the 2014 season this week, when OSU lost five games in a row. One thing that felt different about that season was that it felt like an aberration. Like, the Pokes were gonna be good again, they just really, really weren’t that year, and they struggled along and even though it sucked I never doubted that OSU would be right back where they had been before.

This feels different. More on that next week (probably).

Last week: 2-3 (.400)

Overall: 34-16 (.680)

No. 5 Oklahoma 52, Kansas State 17. Although K-State beat OU in Norman on consecutive trips in 2012 and 2014, the Wildcats haven’t nabbed a home win against the Sooners since 1996. I don’t expect them to this year, either.

No. 15 Texas 31, TCU 21. Man, it was disappointing not to be able to watch the Longhorns drop one to Kansas last week, but how rich would it have been if UT had fallen to the Jayhawks on their own network? Texas’ showing last-second victory certainly dimmed national expectations--this TCU team has only scored more than 24 points once this season, and they’re somehow only -.5 point dogs this weekend against the Horns. 

Oklahoma State 24, No. 23 Iowa State 35. Can OSU win this game? Of course they can win this game. But like a lot of Pokes fans, my faith both in Mike Gundy and the direction of the program died last week when Baylor came to town. Plus, Gundy says he hasn’t even considered a change at QB. I’m sure Gundy cares about winning games. I’m not sure he has the fire to put the work and creativity it takes to actually do it anymore.

Texas Tech 34, Kansas 35. Les Miles is gonna get somebody before it’s all over, and I think Tech is a great candidate for such a poaching.

Photo cred: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

[big12pickparty]

Week 8 Big 12 Picks: Tarp-Time

Pictured: Baylor’s old tarp. Link to Baylor’s new tarp below.

My evil plan has been initiated: now that OU has beaten Texas, I’m sticking to my prediction that the Sooners will fall to the Cowboys in Bedlam. For now, though, the Sooners have to be feeling good about themselves after their Big Lengthy-Horned Beef Barbecue last weekend at the fair. 

Not a great week of games nationally: aside from Oregon vs. Washington, Arizona State vs. Utah, and Michigan vs. Penn State--which I bet will be about as exciting as as a trip to the tag agency--there’s not much.

Last week: 3-0 (1.000)

Overall: 32-13 (.711)

West Virginia 10, No. 5 Oklahoma 56. If you’re reading this blog you likely already know what OU did last weekend, the biggest story being the performance of Alex Grinch’s defense. Nine sacks. Fifteen tackles for loss. Holding the Horns to just over 300 yards. The rest of the league, I suppose, might be cheered by the fact that UT kept them under 40 points for the first time all season, but the reality is that these Sooners keep getting scarier by the week. They head to Morgantown as 33.5-point favorites. For West Virginia’s part, backup Jack Allen performed admirably after Austin Kendall left the game in WVU’s 38-14 loss to the Cyclones, but the game quickly got out of hand in the second half and West Virginia was never in it. As I write this, I don’t know if Kendall (who is an OU transfer) will play this Saturday, but I can’t see as how it will matter, particularly in Norman. The Mountaineers have not beaten the Sooners a single time since joining the Big 12, falling to a miserable tune of 0-7.

Iowa State 28, Texas Tech 30. I, for one, as an OSU fan, was cheered to see how tough Tech was on defense last week at Baylor. It appears there’s some real improvement underway in Lubbock, even if it’s going to be awhile before it comes to fruition. Vegas has ISU at -7, but I'm taking the Red Raiders at the Jones.

TCU 19, Kansas State 17. These two teams are still almost complete mysteries to me. K-State has been both pretty good (at Mississippi State) and really bad (at OSU). TCU has been okay (at Purdue) and also really, really bad (at Ames). The only difference is K-State’s been blown out twice in a row while TCU has only been blown out once in a row. Something tells me to go with TCU, so I’m going to do that. Another thing tells me that this game will produce a safety. I like safeties. Who doesn’t? They’re like finding a $20 in your winter coat the first time you put them on. Unless it’s your team that commits it. In that case a safety is kind of like stepping in dogshit on your way to work.

No. 18 Baylor 34, Oklahoma State 38. Baylor may be 6-0, but they were lucky to emerge with a double-overtime home win against Tech--a game which, were it not for a bad call on a muffed snap that Tech recovered, that the Bears should have lost. Despite OSU owning a 20-17 all-time record against the Divine Tarpists, the Pokes have dropped four of their last five in this series, including a baffling game last season that saw OSU piss away a late lead, displaying a pronounced lack of urgency. I see a hard-fought battle here, but think the Cowboys jump on the Bears early and often, ultimately pulling away with a homecoming victory. Also, though it’s slightly more subtle than the one at Baylor’s old stadium, did you know that McClane also has a tarp?

Kansas 20, No. 15 Texas 42. Welp, Texas finds itself in familiar territory this week. Two losses. Playoff hopes dashed by the midway point in the season. There’s still a path to the Big 12 title game, but that, too, will be a challenge: trips to Fort Worth, Waco, and Ames remain. The Horns should be grateful to be playing at home this weekend, even if the opponent is lowly Kansas.

[big12pickparty]

Week 7 Picks: Red River Edition

Obviously OSU sucked real, real bad last week. Fortunately this post is not about OSU. All that matters is OU taking on their ‘real’ rivals on the other side of the river.

Last week: 2-3 (.400)

Overall: 29-13 (.690)

No. 6 Oklahoma 45, No. 11 Texas 38. Since the Mack Brown-era ended in 2013, OU and Texas’ yearly tilt has been decided by a mere 6.1 points, with OU holding a 4-2 edge. Last year’s game felt fairly close but actually featured the largest margin, OU taking the game 39-27. The Sooners are heading into this game averaging a staggering 643 yards of total offense. That is fucking nuts. Thing is: OU has not been tested all season. Their opening 18-point win over Houston was the closest they’ve come to an actual game. Texas, on the other hand, has tangled with LSU, OSU, and faced a feisty group of Mountaineers last week. Does that mean I think the Horns have a chance? Of course they do. That’s what this game is all about. But I think OU carries the day at the Texas State Fair.

Texas Tech 27, No. 22 Baylor 35. I don’t want to talk about Texas Tech, because Texas Tech made me sick last week against the Pokes. Obviously, after getting erased by OU the week before, Matt Wells’s defense listened. But can they carry that forward against a Matt Rhule-led team that just clocked K-State 31-12? I might feel differently in Lubbock, but they’re playing this game in the hell-hole that is Waco, Texas, so I’ll go with the Bible Thumpers in this one.

Iowa State 30, West Virginia 27. Iowa State thumped TCU last week to the tune of 49-24. They led 21-3 at half. I don’t care how far down Gary Patterson’s team is, for Iowa State to do that to TCU is impressive. Meanwhile, despite falling to Texas 42-31 at home last week, WVU seems to be improving. My gut is telling me to pick the Eers in this, but my head is telling me not to. Recently I’ve been trying to use my head. We’ll see how that goes.

BONUS prediction: if OU beats Texas, they will lose on November 30 in Stillwater. Lose to UT and Bedlam goes the way it always does.

[big12pickparty]

Week 6 Big 12 Picks

Can anybody stop OU? They looked like they were practicing in the first half against Tech. I had that exact thought during the first quarter, and then Urban Meyer said practically the same thing during the halftime show.

Also, Chuba Hubbard: the Canadian is insane. with 296 yards against K-State. He leads the entire country with 938 yards after a mere five games. Being that we can reasonably expect the Pokes to play in at least 8 more--I’d say a bowl is a lock at this point--how does he not get 2,000 on the season? That assumes he stays healthy. But man, oh, man, does he look the part of a Heisman contender so far (this piece by the Tulsa World’s Bill Haisten is worth a look). Even Kirk Herbstreit, who generally doesn’t see beyond the Ohio States, Oklahomas, Bamas, and Georgias of the world, named him the nation’s best player through five weeks.

Last question: anybody else notice how scoring seems to be down, conference-wide this year? I know this is partly due to having a lot of youth across the league, but I feel like number of games ending in 45-42 shoot-outs has been solidly replaced with affairs in the low-to-mid thirties. Would be interesting to see how many points had been scored conference-wide last year going into Week 6 vs. this year.

I’m in the awkward position of predicting that the road team will win four of this week’s five games.

Last week: 4-0 (1.000)

Overall: 27-10 (.729)

No. 6 Oklahoma 45, Kansas 27. OU looks absolutely unbeatable so far. And I don’t mean by their conference brethren, I mean by anybody in the whole damn country. That said: I do not envy the Sooners this week. Texas looms large on October 12, and to have to try to show up in Lawrence the week before--eh, that’s a recipe for sloppiness. I think OU will be fine, but not cover. I should also take this annual opportunity to remind everyone that Kansas beat Oklahoma the first eight times they played. Of course that was over a century ago, but hey! We take what we can get, don’t we. I realize I haven’t been writing as much about OU’s games this year: they seem so otherworldly they almost aren’t interesting (which is generally how I feel about, say, Alabama or Clemson).

No. 21 Oklahoma State 48, Texas Tech 23. I already talked about Hubbard so we’ll leave him alone for now. Probably the saddest thing about the travesty that was OSU’s 2018 football season, to me, was the Cowboys having their nine-game winning streak against Tech snapped. That really hurt. A win for the Pokes this week would even up the all-time series between these two: currently Tech owns a 22-21-3 edge. Interestingly, the Pokes are in their second of five games in a row against teams they lost to last year. (Up next is an off week, followed by Baylor, Iowa State and TCU.) It’s impossible to tell how a freshman QB is going to play on the road, but I honestly expect the Cowboys not to have much trouble against backup QB Jett Duffey and the Red Raiders.

TCU 24, Iowa State 21. I don’t want to pick this game, I don’t want to pick this game, I don’t want to pick this game. Both these teams have burned me repeatedly this year. One is way worse than everyone thought they would be. The other is still an unknown entity. It’s only slightly obvious that the former is Iowa State while the latter is TCU.

No. 11 Texas 30, West Virginia 20. As with OU, next week in Dallas looms large, but I’m willing to bet the Longhorns are gonna bring a pretty fucking big grudge to bear against WVU. No, Will Grier’s not gonna be there to score the game-winning 2-pt. conversion and flip the Horns-down, but the way that whole thing went down last year in Austin has to still be rubbing UT the wrong way.

Baylor 24, Kansas State 31. Baylor emerged victorious last week not looking as good as they could have against ISU. K-State got dominated in every phase of the game against Oklahoma State. Makes this a tough pick: I just don’t think K-State is as bad as they looked last week. They got manhandled; they’re gonna be better against Baylor, especially back in Manhattan.

[big12pickparty]

Week 5 Big 12 Picks

Another brutal set of picks last week, thanks to the Pokes’ inability to score in the red zone, TCU breaking the yolk in the Iron Skillet, and Kansas doing the thing Kansas does best (aside from Bill Self making calls to a certain Adidas representative--good luck with that, Jayhawks).

This week we’ve got one relative certainty (OU-Tech), one likelihood that feels less likely than usual (Kansas-TCU), one classic Big 8-era tossup between two teams hovering along the fringe of the Top 25 (OSU-KSU) and another game whose outcome seemed more certain before the season started (ISU-Baylor).

Last week: 2-3 (.400)

Overall: 23-10 (.696)

Texas Tech 24, No. 5 Oklahoma 45. OU and Tech have played a lot of close ones in the past decade, but Tech has only won this game once since the days of Mike Leach, and that was all the way back in 2011. Recent affairs in Norman have not been close. I think Tech shows some fight after getting manhandled by Arizona, but this ultimately shouldn’t be close.

Kansas 24, TCU 31. For some reason entirely unclear to me, these two schools played every year from 1944-64. TCU owns a 7-1 edge against KU since joining the Big 12, but was embarrassed by the Jayhawks last year in Lawrence. I have no real idea about how to pick this game: TCU seems god-awful to me. Kansas has been god-awful forever but seems slightly better. The game’s in Fort Worth, which should be an encouragement, except for the fact that the Frogs dropped their last outing at Amon Carter. In games like this you go with tradition, which TCU has in their favor. The trouble is that it feels like that’s all they have going for them at this point.

Iowa State 30, Baylor 34. Now we get into the really difficult section of this week’s picks. Baylor hasn’t played anyone (and still managed to have a harrowing 21-13 run-in with Rice last week). Despite ISU’s 72-20 showing against UL-Monroe, I’m still feeling skeptical about the Clones.

No. 24 Kansas State 37, Oklahoma State 38. Honestly, disappointed as I was in the result, I felt incredibly encouraged by OSU’s performance in Austin. The future is bright for the Pokes. Do I wish Mike Gundy would lay off the run game and air it out more? Of course I do. Do I wish there were more creativity around the goal line? You bet. But as more level-headed commentators have pointed out, at this moment in Sanders’s career as a redshirt freshman QB, the playbook probably has to be relatively simple. Sure, Gundy is sometimes frustratingly conservative, but who do you think called the fake fieldgoal? Did it work, was it well-timed or even partially well-executed? Obviously not! But it definitely wasn’t the the work of a stolidly conservative in-game philosophy. The most exhausting thing to me about reading fan-blogs is the inability for most folks to see the difference between a call they like that works and a call they like that doesn’t work (which is usually attributed to poor play-calling). ANYWAY. I’m both excited for and dreading this game. This is exactly the kind of game last year’s team struggled getting ready for. This year’s team, I think, will, though the jury’s still out. Lose this game and it feels like these are the same up-and-down Pokes from 2018. Win it and you start to feel like we’re back in the neighborhood of most of Gundy’s teams from the past decade, with all the options on the table. Beat K-State and there’s not a game you shouldn’t win between here and Bedlam, and I don’t know who wouldn’t feel fantastic about a season in which the Pokes walk into that game with a 10-1 record . . . . There’s a lot of history between OSU and K-State, and I think more of a rivalry than I think gets talked about. In any other conference this is probably a game that gets played for a trophy. OSU holds the overall advantage 39-26. Gundy himself is 6-5 against K-State, but the last two games in this series have not been even slightly enjoyable for the Pokes. Adding to the dread-factor is that K-State has the Big 12′s best non-conference win of the season (Miss State). The Wildcats are a load.