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Centfx

The Japanese Yen is still weak as Powell, the Fed, states that 50 basis point cuts are not a new pace.

On Thursday, the US dollar (USD) continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen (JPY), despite a reduction in its intraday losses. The risk-sensitive Japanese yen (JPY) kept losing value on Wednesday in spite of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive 50 basis point (bps) interest rate reduction. With the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decision due this Friday, traders are now concentrating on it. It is anticipated that rates would remain steady while providing space for future rate hikes. Furthermore, careful attention will be paid to Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, as the inflation report has the potential to shed light on the BoJ's future interest rate trajectory. Fed policymakers revised their quarterly economic projections, raising the median estimate of unemployment from 4.0% in June to 4.4% by the end of 2024. Additionally, they increased the 2.8% to 2.9% long-term forecast for the federal funds rate.

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The price of gold is still below its peak, and traders are not showing much commitment ahead of the Fed.

The price of gold (XAU/USD) fails to benefit from a slight recovery during the Asian session and makes a new low for the day in the final hour, hovering around $2,568–2,567, though any significant correction decline still looks unlikely. The likelihood of an enormous interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday is now priced in by the markets, which puts bulls of the US dollar (USD) on the defensive and should help the non-yielding yellow metal. Furthermore, the gold price may continue to receive some support from enduring geopolitical issues resulting from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the political unrest in the US ahead of the November election. Dealers may We would prefer to hold off on making plans for the next leg of the XAU/USD directional move until after the conclusion of the much-anticipated two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the new economic projections. 

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Centfx

Because of the possibility of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed, USD/CHF drops to about 0.8450.

The USD/CHF pair resumes its recent upward trend, closing at 0.8450 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), which meets later in the North American session in September, is expected to announce a significant rate drop of 50 basis points. This has led to challenges for the US Dollar (USD). According to the CME Tool, markets are pricing in a 33.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate decrease, but the chance of a 50 basis point cut has increased to 67.0%, from 62.0% just the day before. US retail sales surpassed estimates of a 0.2% decrease on Tuesday, rising by 0.1% MoM in August after a revised 1.1% growth in July, exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% decrease and demonstrating strong consumer spending. The Retail Sales Control Group, on the other hand, increased by 0.3%, marginally less than the 0.4% increase that occurred the previous month.

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Centfx

GBP/USD stabilizes at 1.3200, with short-term support coming from US retail sales.

Tuesday's Asian session sees the GBP/USD pair moving in a narrow trading range slightly over the 1.3200 mark, consolidating the previous day's strong advance up to more than a one-week high. In anticipation of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting beginning on Tuesday and the Bank of England (BoE) policy report on Thursday, investors choose to stay away from the markets. With indications of lessening inflationary pressures, the markets are already pricing in more than a 60% likelihood of an enormous 50 basis point interest rate decrease when the Federal Reserve (Fed) makes its announcement on Wednesday. As a result, US Treasury bond rates remain low at one.or two-year lows and is unable to help the US Dollar (USD) make a significant comeback from the YTD low, which is perceived as providing support for the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, projections that the BoE's rate-cutting cycle will likely be slower than that of the US support the value of the British Pound (GBP). Despite this, investors are still placing bets on additional rate cuts from the BoE, particularly in light of data that was disclosed last week that indicated a slowdown in UK wage growth and a flat GDP print in July for the second consecutive month. This could limit the upside by discouraging traders from making aggressively bullish wagers on the GBP/USD pair. 

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Centfx

The US dollar maintains its strength while the Japanese yen consolidates amid higher Treasury yields.

Because of the hawkish feeling surrounding the Bank of Japan's interest rate forecast, the Japanese yen (JPY) is holding steady against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Expecting the BoJ to maintain its current policy stance while leaving the door open to rate hikes in October and December, traders will be watching the announcement on Friday. On Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that sharp swings in foreign exchange (FX) are not good. Suzuki stressed that authorities will keep a careful eye on how foreign exchange movements impact the Japanese economy and the standard of living. Reuters reports that the administration would keep evaluating the effects of a rising Japanese yen and adjust its policies accordingly. The US Dollar continues to under pressure as anticipations rise. that on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might decide to implement a large rate drop of 50 basis points. Markets are pricing in a 38.0% possibility of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve interest rate decrease at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut has increased to 62.0%, up from 50.0% just one day earlier.

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Centfx

EUR/USD rises as the US PPI remains sluggish. Debate on the amount of the Fed rate cut

A weak US dollar causes the EUR/USD exchange rate to increase. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures how much the US dollar is worth in relation to six major currencies, continues to decline, closing in on 101.00. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, according to market speculation, which is exerting significant selling pressure on the greenback. The likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%–5.00% in September has dramatically jumped from 14% to 43%, per the CME FedWatch tool, following the release of the US PPI data. According to Thursday's PPI statistics, producer inflation increased in August year over year at a slower rate than anticipated. The headline rate of inflation increased by 1.7%, which was lower than the 1.8% forecast and downgraded from 2.1% in July. Core producer inflation, which does not include volatile food and energy prices, increased consistently by 2.4% during the same time, less than the 2.5% predicted.

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Centfx

USD/CAD Price Forecast: For supporters of the US dollar, 1.3600 is still a major barrier.

During the North American session on Friday, the USD/CAD pair trades in a narrow range below the round-level resistance of 1.3600. With investors' attention focused on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, the Loonie asset is struggling to find direction.

At its meeting on Wednesday, the Fed is almost certain to begin lowering interest rates due to concerns about the state of the labor market and growing confidence that inflationary pressures will sustainably return to the bank's target of 2%.Regarding the extent of the anticipated interest rate cut by the Fed, traders are still divided. The likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%–5.00% in September has grown, according to the CME FedWatch tool drop to 45% from 28% the previous day.

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Centfx

Australian dollar falls even as the US dollar weakens.

In the session, the AUD/USD dropped by 0.20% to 0.6710. Following remarks from a "Fed whisperer" indicating a greater likelihood of a 50 basis point rate decrease at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming meeting, the Australian dollar fell while the US dollar strengthened. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), on the other hand, continues to be hawkish, which supports the Australian dollar. Because of high inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is remaining cautious, which casts doubt on the direction of the Australian economy. Due to this, financial markets now only predict a small 0.25% interest rate decrease in 2024, which is a departure from earlier projections of a larger relaxation. This cautious approach demonstrates the RBA's commitment to price control and its worries about inflation pressures while weighing the requirement for economic expansion.

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Centfx

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: The technical picture points to more short-term losses as bears drive the pair lower. It has dropped more than 1% to 86.60, signaling a new day of losses. Over the previous week, the pair has been in a downtrend, ending four of the last six sessions with a lower close. The NZD/JPY pair has a poor technical view overall, and it is expected to continue declining in the foreseeable future. Right now, the RSI is getting close to 30, which is the oversold region. Additionally, the RSI's slope is descending, indicating a rise in selling pressure. Additionally, the histogram is rising and the MACD is negative, suggesting that selling pressure is intensifying. But the oversold signs could suggest that the pair is about to for the most recent downward swings to be stabilized by an upward correction.

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Centfx

 Sugar price attempts positively

The price of sugar moved higher yesterday, approaching and testing the important resistance of 19.23$. It was observed that stochastic clearly loses its positive momentum, signaling that the market is ready to resume the anticipated bearish trend for the coming time, with 18.43$ as the next target.

The EMA50's negative pressure encourages the continuation of the recommended bearish wave and serves as a reminder to maintain below 19.23$ in order to sustain the anticipated decline.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between the 18.40$ support and the 19.23$ resistance.

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Centfx

.When US CPI and UK statistics are released, the GBP/USD pair appears to be limited in its upside potential.

During Wednesday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair gathers momentum once more and surges to a new daily high, getting closer to the 1.3100 round-figure milestone in the final hour. However, spot prices are still below the overnight swing high, so before making any significant moves to position oneself for a recovery from a three-week low, which was struck yesterday in the 1.3050–1.3045 zone, prudence is advised. Amidst expectations for an impending commencement of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy-easing cycle in September, the US Dollar (USD) stalls the upward trend it had been showing for the previous three days and retreats from the area of the monthly peak. Consequently, this is considered a crucial element providing some backing for the GBP/USD exchange rate. However, a generally down tone in the equities markets may help curb losses for the US dollar and stabilize the currency pair amidst speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may hike interest rates further this year.

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Centfx

Silver Price Forecast: Just below the mid-$28.00s, XAG/USD remains stable at the weekly high.

For the third day in a row, silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a slight positive bias on Wednesday; nevertheless, there isn't much bullish confidence. The metal is presently trading around the $28.45 range, which is slightly below the weekly high that was reached during the Asian session.

Technically speaking, the white metal is positioned above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the August–September decline and is attempting to maintain its momentum above the 4-hour chart's 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Oscillators on the aforementioned chart have recently begun to show signs of life, although they have not yet verified a bullish bias on the daily chart. Therefore, it is more likely that the XAG/USD will run into strong resistance close to the $28.95–$29.00 confluence. consisting of the 4-hour chart's 100-period SMA and the 50% Fibo level.

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Centfx

The EURUSD price closes lower than it started. Today's forecast is for 10-09-2024.

The daily candlestick below the 1.1040$ level was completed by the EURUSD price, indicating that the correcting bearish trend is still dominant. This clears the path for the pair of goals we have set, which are 1.0990$ and 1.0940$. As a result, the bearish trend will continue for the foreseeable future, bolstered by the EMA50's negative pressure. It should be noted, however, that should the price fail to stabilize below 1.1040$, attempts at a recovery will be made, with intraday gains initially targeted at the 1.1100$ level. Today's trade is likely to be in the area of 1.0955$ support to 1.1100$ resistance.

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Centfx

NZD/USD is stuck close to a multi-week low, around the mid-0.6100s, ahead of trade data from China.

For the third straight day on Tuesday, there is some selling pressure on the NZD/USD pair. It is currently trading slightly above a three-week low that was struck the day before, around the 0.6140-0.6135 range. After the release of the mixed US jobs report on Friday, traders have begun reducing their bets on a greater, 50 basis point (bps) interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. This is considered to be weighing on the NZD/USD pair and pushing the USD Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, closer to the monthly peak that was reached last week. Nevertheless, wagers on the impending beginning of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, along with a positive risk tone, which might strengthen the currency pair and cap the USD.

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Centfx

.In the middle of the 1.3500s, USD/CAD trades slightly lower due to rising oil prices.

During the Asian session on Monday, the USD/CAD pair trades with a slight negative bias around the mid-1.3500s, unable to gain on Friday's significant intraday surge of over 100 pip. A minor increase in the price of crude oil is the driving force behind the downturn, but a number of other variables should prevent worse losses. With a possible hurricane predicted to hit the northwest US Gulf Coast, which supplies 60% of the country's refining capacity, crude oil prices have moved away from their lowest point since June 2023. Thus, it is believed that this supports the Loonie, which is correlated with commodities, and puts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, worse Canadian jobs report sparked expectations of more Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate reductions and ought to limit gains for the national currency.

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Centfx

Due to risk aversion, the USD/INR extends losses, but the downside appears limited.

On Monday, the Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground versus the US Dollar (USD) for the second straight session. However, a wider sell-off in Asian shares and currencies, propelled by growing concerns about a possible slowdown in the US economy, may lead to an increase in the USD/INR pair in the near future. It's possible that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened many times last week to strengthen the Indian Rupee. It is likely that traders are keeping an eye out for any potential actions by the RBI to keep the INR from dropping below 84.00. Furthermore, considering that India is the third-largest importer and consumer of oil in the world, rising oil prices may put pressure on the INR.

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Centfx

The GBPUSD forecast update

      The GBPUSD price is currently under negative pressure and may test the bullish channel's support line on the chart. The EMA50 crosses this support to reinforce the bullish trend and support the continuation of today's predicted bullish trend, which aims to reach levels of 1.3200$ and 1.3265$ as the next major stations.

If the bullish trend doesn't break and hold below 1.3124$, it will generally continue to be valid and active for today.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between the 1.3265$ resistance and the 1.3100$ support.