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895 ⚡️

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Welcome party!

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15 y'all

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Georgetown University x Maradona ⚽

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A trip for the ages 🔪

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Excellent provocation from Matt Kaufman!

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Published in the print edition of The New Yorker -- February 3, 2025, issue, with the headline “High Art.”

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2025 Predictions: Disruption, M&A, and Cultural Shifts

1. NVIDIA’s Stock Faces a Correction

After years of market dominance driven by AI and compute demand, investor expectations will become unsustainable. A modest setback—whether technical, regulatory, or competitive—will trigger a wave of profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing among institutional investors, ending the year with NVIDIA’s stock below its January 2025 price.

2. OpenAI Launches a Consumer Suite to Rival Google

OpenAI will aggressively debut “Omail,” “Omaps,” and other consumer products, subsidizing adoption with cash incentives (e.g., $50/year for Omail users). The goal: capture original user-generated data to train models while undercutting Google’s monetization playbook. Gen Z, indifferent to legacy tech brands, will flock to OpenAI’s clean, ad-light alternatives.

3. Rivian Gains Momentum as Tesla’s Talent Exodus Begins

Despite fading EV subsidies, Rivian becomes a credible challenger as Tesla grapples with defections. Senior Tesla executives—disillusioned with Elon Musk’s polarizing brand—will migrate to Rivian, accelerating its R&D and operational maturity. By late 2025, Rivian’s roadmap hints at long-term disruption, though Tesla’s scale remains unmatched.

4. Ethereum and Vitalik Surge to New Heights

Ethereum solidifies its role as crypto’s foundational layer, driven by institutional DeFi adoption and regulatory clarity. Vitalik Buterin transcends “crypto-founder” status, becoming a global thought leader on digital governance and AI ethics. His influence cements ETH’s position as the “defacto choice” of decentralized ecosystems.

5. Amazon Acquires Anthropic in a $30B AI Play

Amazon, needing cutting-edge AI to compete with Microsoft/OpenAI and Google, buys Anthropic but preserves its independence (a la Zappos). Anthropic’s “long-term governance” model becomes a differentiator, enabling multi-decade AI safety research while feeding Amazon’s commercial ambitions.

6. Netflix Buys Scopely to Dominate Interactive Entertainment

With streaming growth plateauing, Netflix doubles down on gaming. The $10B Scopely acquisition adds hit mobile titles (Star Trek Fleet Command, Marvel Strike Force) to its portfolio, creating a subscription gaming bundle that meshes with its IP-driven content engine.

7. Amazon + Equinox + Whole Foods = Wellness Ecosystems

Amazon merges Equinox’s luxury fitness brand with Whole Foods’ footprint, launching “Whole Life” hubs: members work out, sauna, grab chef-prepared meals at the hot bar, and shop for groceries—all under one subscription.

8. Professional Sports Become the Ultimate Cultural Currency

Athletes supplant Hollywood stars as cultural icons, with leagues monetizing 24/7 fandom via microtransactions (NFT highlights, AI-personalized broadcasts). Even as streaming fragments TV rights, live sports’ monopoly on real-time attention fuels record valuations.

9. Bryan Johnson’s Blueprint Goes Mainstream

Dismissed as a biohacking meme in 2023, Blueprint pivots from $1,000/month “vampire face cream” to a science-backed longevity brand. Partnering with retail giants, it dominates the $50B supplement market and other longevity products (hair loss, ED, etc).

10. Jayden Daniels Redefines QB Training with Neurotech

The Commanders’ rookie stuns the NFL with pre-snap precision honed via AR/VR simulations that accelerate cognitive processing. His startup JaydenVision, licenses the tech to the league—making “brain reps” as routine as weightlifting by 2026.

*BONUS*

11. YouTube Spins Out, Dwarfing Google’s Valuation

Alphabet spins off YouTube into a standalone public company. Unleashed from Google’s baggage, YouTube capitalizes on its creator economy, shoppable videos, and AI-driven content tools. Its market cap surpasses $1.5T—eclipsing Google’s core search business.

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“Benchmark quickly catapulted into the industry’s top tier by investing in eBay in 1997. Mr. Dunlevie persuaded Pierre Omidyar, eBay’s founder, to take Benchmark’s $6.7 million investment at a valuation of $20 million, even though it was lower than a competing bid. Within two years, that bet was worth more than $4 billion.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/13/technology/andreessen-horowitz-benchmark-venture-capital.html