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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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How To Double Your Money after The Crypto Crash

Every major crypto is down between 30 and 50 in the last 30 days and it feels like there’s no end in sight. Sentiment is decreasing and i can feel the negativity creeping up again now.

This is going to be a fairly atypical video, because it’s urgent, typically a video of mine, takes one to four weeks to produce, but given that the market is crashing right now and i’ve received hundreds of messages about this, i wanted to put out something quickly because Of this, let’s quickly look at why the markets are down whether you should actually be worried for the long term and some actions that you can take today to increase your profits.

I want to start by saying: although crypto is down, we need to look at other asset classes. First, zooming out will help us set the stage for what’s going on in the world and zooming out.

We can see everything is down right now. The nasdaq is down significantly anything high growth. Anything tech is not doing well, even what’s generally considered the safe bet in investing the s. P 500 is down 10 percent in the last month. That’S a massive amount.

This is largely the result of uncertainty. Investors are waiting for earnings calls to come out this week and some policy decisions from the federal reserve that may tighten up monetary policy just a little bit. Basically, investors are concerned that the federal open market committee, the group that decides interest rates, are going to bump up rates quickly in order to fight against inflation. If rates do jump up significantly, this has the simple downside that will be more expensive to borrow money. This matters in stocks, especially high growth stocks, because they borrow money in order to grow at a rapid pace, so it makes sense that growth will slow if borrowing costs of money increase.

Now it’s unlikely that the fomc will decide to all of a sudden hike rates dramatically, as they know, this would cause absolute chaos in the market. Instead, it’s much more likely that they set a target date in which rates will slowly begin increasing. Now, how does this relate to crypto? Well, in times of fear, investors, especially big institutional investors, will move money to safer asset classes in anticipation of further drops in the market. This means, as that rebalancing occurs.

More money is pulled out of crypto and out of speculative assets and even non-speculative stocks and moved into more safe assets. One way to track if money is being moved to safer assets is by looking at the 10-year treasury yield. The yield of this government-backed bond will typically decrease in times of uncertainty, and if we look at the charts, the 10-year note has actually decreased 8.5 percent since last week. Again this is big money making moves in anticipation of monetary policy changes.

Then what we see is the fear from one market creep into other markets, which is what we’re seeing in crypto. People tend to assume that, if it’s time to be scared in one asset class, well, we better be fearful in this other asset class as well, and the funny thing is that this kind of ends up being a self-fulfilling prophecy: people pull money out, markets, dip fear Increases more money gets pulled out markets dip even further. It’S this vicious downward spiral. Then we have the added impact of russia. The central bank of russia recently came out with a report.

Titled cryptocurrencies trends risks measures in this report. Cryptocurrencies are compared to ponzi schemes and there’s a call for this outright ban throughout russia by the bank of russia, and this caused a little bit of an uproar throughout the world of crypto and hurt markets as investors, who were already on the edge of their seats. You know worried about crypto. They received this confirmation that you know this may be a good time to go ahead and exit the market for a little. While, however, it turned out that the opinions of the report were not a consensus.

The ban is not universally accepted. In russia, others have said that a ban of this magnitude would be virtually impossible, which i have to agree with you. I mean someone could just use a vpn in russia and still use crypto if they wanted to if it didn’t get banned. To me, this is something to keep an eye on, but it doesn’t feel like something that should keep you out of the markets entirely. Of course, none of this is financial advice in crypto, another way to judge fear in the market.

Besides the obvious of just looking at price charts and seeing bloody red price decreases, you can gain some insights by looking at the market caps of stable coins. This is because, in times of uncertainty, people will move some of their crypto positions to assets pegged to the dollar stable coins. In fact, this is a money-making strategy that i’m going to talk about in just a minute, but if we look at the market caps of ust usdt mim usdc, we can see that they have all had dramatic increases in market cap in the last month. So this leads us to the question: is this the end? Is this the long dark cold bear market that we’ve been worried about in order to better understand, i think we should look at adoption instead of prices, pretend that coin market cap doesn’t exist and ask the question: is blockchain technology actually being used more today than six Months ago, more today than a year ago, is it trending upwards?

This is important because in the long run, the value of crypto projects will be determined by the value that they provide. Is this technology actually being used? Where are the trends headed? So, let’s start off with nfts trading volume for nfts hit 10.6 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2021.

Up 704 from the previous quarter, facebook and instagram are finishing a feature that will allow users to display nfts on their social media profiles. Coinbase will soon accept credit card payments for nfts. This means you don’t have to deal with crypto in order to buy an nft. Some say this is a double edged store. They don’t really like it, but others think this is awesome news for the average investor the average person to get into nfts now play to earn games.

In axi infinity alone, there was 5.5 billion dollars locked in virtual assets. In november, in a single game, crypto games are gaining traction, they’re, getting more fun, they’re, getting more users and they’re even gaining popularity on twitch, and this is despite the fact that crypto gaming has only an 18 billion dollar industry market cap. That’S 1. 6.

The size of d5 and more than 100 times smaller than the regular video game industry. Now what about d5? According to d5 lama, the current total value locked in defy exceeds billion dollars. Now d5 2 0 was a fantastic innovation, however, it just simply was not user friendly enough for the average investor. Now, with defy 3.

things like defy as a service or just more usability in the space means, projects can appeal to your regular investor, who doesn’t have the time to learn the ins and outs of yield farming or just anything having to do with d5. Increasing the usability means an increased scope of people who can use these products, thus increasing the market cap for defy and crypto as a whole, then more broadly, we’re seeing more and more institutional investors embracing cryptocurrencies we’re seeing large corporations adding crypto to their balance sheets and Countries beginning to accept bitcoin as legal tender. This has largely all happened in the last year, so it’s safe to say that the industry is moving in the direction of adoption, despite prices declining in recent months. I think we would be having a completely different conversation if we couldn’t see those darn price charts. Now this isn’t me saying that you should dump your entire life savings into crypto or that it’s some kind of risk-free bet.

That’S not what i’m saying at all. I’M just saying actual use metrics seem to be increasing and that’s what will matter in the long term now from here. Let’S talk about how you can actually make huge profits during the bear market. There’S two strategies that i’d like to discuss here that i personally use and have seen a lot of success with the first is simply buying the dip. Now this is a bit obvious, but you need to be a little bit more tactful than just hucking your money into projects, and you know crossing your fingers that the market turns now in times like the current market.

Buying, the dip can feel like you’re straight up. Throwing cash into a bonfire i’ve been buying, and it feels like that, and this is a bonfire that is slowly consuming your home, but the reality is, if you believe, blockchain technology is here to stay. If it’s here for the long term, then there’s no reason, you should believe that prices won’t eventually go up in the long run. Now i have no idea where prices are going to be in the next month, but i do know that buying bitcoin today at 35 000 is actually less risky than buying it at 60, 000 in november. That is, if you think, crypto has long term staying potential.

My strategy is to buy the dip and not focus on the ultra speculative small cap cryptos for now, instead i’ll focus on the largest cryptos, the largest layer ones that i believe have the most staying potential. The simple reason for this is diversification buying a layer. One is like buying a farm with 50 cows. Instead of buying a single cow, a single cow can die, or maybe it gets mastitis. I used to work on a farm.

If you can’t tell, but the point is chances are, if you own the farm you’re not going to lose all 50 cows, if a layer one has 50 projects built on it, then you’re going to be okay. If one of those projects goes under and when money begins flowing back into the crypto space, you will be the first one to see gains money flowing to the space typically seems to go in this order. Bitcoin first see some gains, then ethereum, then other large layer. One blockchains and then smaller cap projects with potential, and then you see the speculative. You know crazy type projects gaining steam.

It seems to go in that order most times in terms of how much i’m buying i’ve already purchased quite a bit. But i always leave money on the sidelines, ready to seize any massive dip opportunity. So let’s say i had one thousand dollars to buy the dip. I may use 300 today and then buy 100 every five or so days until that money runs out. Unless i see a big dip in the market, even further, in which i may double the buy, that day to 200 dollar cost averaging, will help flatten out the volatility if you’d gone all in on the first dip in november, you wouldn’t be so happy right now.

Now the good part is, you can still make money with the money that you have on the sidelines. This is good either to put that cash reserve to work or, if you’re thinking you know, buying the dip. That’S too risky for me right now. I simply lend out my stable coins, always with this. You can earn some nice passive income and you don’t have to worry about any 30 corrections in price because it’s pegged to the dollar.

Now i do most of my lending on kucoin and i’m most familiar with how they do things, so this might vary a little bit depending on the site that you use, but on kucoin they add a layer of safety by offering an insurance fund. So let’s say you make 100 in profit by lending out usdt five dollars of that would go to kucoin for running the platform. Ten dollars would go to an insurance fund. This fund ensures that you get paid back if, for whatever reason, the borrower can’t pay you back now, i’ve looked through thousands of transactions on my kucoin app and haven’t ever seen. The insurance fund actually used, but it’s a nice peace of mind to have in case that buyer can, for whatever reason, can’t pay me back.

I’Ve been using kucoin for about eight months now, and i’ve personally made over 24 000 in profit just through lending i’ll, have them linked in the description. If you want to use that link, you’ll save some money on trading fees. Now you can also go the defi lending route and lend out something like ust for a pretty darn good interest rate. However, it’s important to remember that this won’t be held on an exchange, so if you want to quickly transfer it and buy the dip, there’s going to be a few extra steps in doing so. All in all, we need to remember that this is an entirely new market.

It’S easy to forget that the price we pay for massive gains is massive downside risk and we’re going to see this, and this is going to happen again in the future. This is why any purchase i make is made with the intention to hold long term, because i can’t guess where the market is going to head next week or next month. No one can, but i can look at sentiment. I can do my best to understand how the technology will be adopted, and i can invest based on five and ten year potential now, if tracking, all of this is too overwhelming for you, that is totally fine, you’re, not alone, you don’t need to over complicate things. Your investment strategy could be as simple as buying 50 a week in bitcoin and never looking at the news.

There’S literally nothing wrong with that or if you’d like even more up-to-date insights, you can join something like my patreon investment community. There we have a team of researchers and investors who do the work for you to find opportunities and to monitor the market. This includes updates on anything that i personally buy or sell. As soon as i do, it, that’ll be available linked in the description for as little as 10 a month. It really is an awesome deal and there’s a reason that we have more than 11 000 satisfied members now from here.

If you’re interested in lending, i would recommend checking out this video on screen that goes more in depth on how exactly it works, and i would like to thank you so much for watching and i hope you have a profitable day.

via How To Double Your Money after The Crypto Crash

#bitcoin news #ethereum news #xrp news #cardano news #crypto news #best cryptocurrency to buy #best crypt

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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IS THIS THE END FO CRYPTO…?

Welcome back to cryptozoros, i am George we’re all George. Is it time? Is it time to discuss whether or not this is the end for bitcoin and crypto? So many have exited the market completely in the and today it’s just absolute apocalypse when you look at what’s happening with stocks with the equity market and for all coins, so does that mean we need to have a serious conversation whether or not we are going to Go into a long, prolonged bare market for bitcoin and crypto. Well, I’m going to address that very question today.

So let’s get started smash it a like subscribe to the channel two streams, almost every day: 11 30 and 8 30 p.m. Central standard time make sure you follow me on twitter facebook instagram and hit that notification bell and check out all the latest news. Article guys at cryptothrust.com welcome.

Welcome! Welcome guys a lot a lot, a lot of fear out there right now, but guess what guess? What bitcoin is crawling up? It is above 35, 000, now much better than this morning, when it flash crashed down to about 32 900. In fact, there was a scam wick right here that you can see.

I call it scam wick, because uh there was a sudden push up to about 38 000. Then it dipped down and then it continued to go down further. However, we’re starting to see some traction for bitcoin and all coins are still still not doing too good hasn’t flipped up or anything, but is it the end for bitcoin and crypto? Well, let’s take a look let’s before i get to answer that question. Let’s take a look what’s happening today: okay, today, it’s just a very, very, very bad day.

In fact, the dew was at negative 1 000, which we haven’t seen in a while, but what’s even worse, is nasdaq and negative 4 over 500 wiped out. That is normally something that you don’t see across the board on is such a big index like nasdaq, unless you have days like this, where there’s true panic from wall street really really really panicking about. What’S going to happen tomorrow and just take a look netflix down almost 10 percent, they are down close to 40 percent within a matter of days 40. That’S even worse than some of all coins out there, even tesla, which is going to report on wednesday down 8. Well, what about crypto companies like microstrategy, now down nine percent?

On top of all the downs that they’ve experienced recently coinbase down 11 and even riot, a mining company is down. Eight percent today is a total slaughterhouse. Okay, when it comes to stocks and crypto, the only thing you could do is laugh about it, because it’s a slaughterhouse, okay, there’s no other way to put it and, of course, uh. You know this is all anticipation of this. The fed meeting that’s go happen tomorrow and wednesday.

Many are still anticipating that chairman powell will be very hawkish very hawkish and talk about four rate hikes and the first one will start in march: go start buying less bonds, start selling off the balance sheet and basically liquidity into the market. It’S going to stop flowing and it’s all doom and gloom from there right. This is why wall street is panicking right now, in fact, you know i usually show you guys, like oversoul levels, rs high levels and stuff like that. Someone posted this. This is not a bitcoin; this is a nasdaq.

Nasdaq is so oversold right now it’s at the same point as 2009, so it’s been how many years 13 years nasdaq has not been this oversold since 2009, when we had that last recession. That shows you how much fear there is right now in the market – okay, 12 years, so think about that so yeah, there’s a lot of fear out there and what’s also contributing to this fear, is this and not a whole lot of people’s talking about it? Is that yeah russia has just deployed like a hundred thousand troops to the border us sent a ton of uh lethal aid? That’S what i was. I was told lethal aid.

I don’t know when we decided to call weapons lethal aid to ukraine, but this is also starting to escalate. Whether or not a peaceful resolution will be found or if there’s war coming right. So this is also coming, and this is not good. So you add, what’s going on with this, with the foc fomc meeting, let’s go start tomorrow, you know what it’s looking pretty darn bad right. This is why everyone is panicking why the markets are selling off and why so many people have exited the market.

However, does that mean the end is near today’s one of those days? It’S weird because you know a lot of crypto people tend to make fun of themselves, make fun of uh the new positions that they have right. For example, even president buchelli uh tweeted this that he is now working at mcdonald’s uh, michael saylor of course, said that he’s working at uh thai unis, which is a hibachi place right. Even plan b of all people plan b rather than post a stock to flow model, he posted this and we can’t argue with that. Right now can’t argue with that at all.

But uh does this mean that it’s all over for bitcoin and crypto right when everyone has lost it when everyone is so fearful and down? Does that mean it’s time to get out, get out of the market, cut your losses and forget about attaining life-changing wealth through crypto, because it was just a fantasy all along. Does it mean it’s time it’s time? Well, my answer is no. No, it’s not, and i have reasons to share why but one of the things i’ve been driving home for the last few days is when everyone is anticipating the worst news and everyone is bearish and everyone thinks it is over.

That’S when you want to get in. That’S when the real investors come in and pounce on the terrific and awesome sales that is going on and partly the reason why i think bitcoin is starting to come up, because we know bitcoin has been very, very, very oversold in fact this morning dropping to 9, Which some speculated needed to happen because we had an unfilled uh futures, uh gap and and people are still talking about that, but we filled that and since then, despite the overall market, getting worse, bitcoin is actually starting to come up. Can we see 36 000 by the end of this stream? Maybe maybe maybe some investors out there realize? Well, we should not be like wall street because they’re just being reactive, they don’t really believe in the first place.

Maybe wall street is completely out of crypto and bitcoin already and if that’s the case what’s left is the true holders, the holders that are holding on no matter what, and maybe we could start forming a base from here, okay, so uh. So that’s my opinion. Okay, when everyone literally everyone on planet earth, is fearful about what’s gon na be announced the next few days uh, you know what i think it’s a pretty good could be pretty good buying opportunity, and i have some some reasons for that number one is you know? I talked about liquidations a lot in the past right, a lot of people getting liquidated, getting wrecked a lot of people getting margin called under loans right. That’S one thing: i’ve always said: don’t invest more than what you can afford to lose.

Don’T take a loan against your bitcoin, i’m hearing that a lot of people that have taken their loans with their bitcoin or ethereum um on lending platforms like celsius, they’re, all getting margin called and some can’t pay it back so they’re being sold. So that’s also adding to it, but of course, we’ve seen many people get liquidated as well, because they’re just taking a risk right well uh, it seems like it seems like that’s starting to die down, because even on a day like today, when we had a pretty Big dip, you know the the leveraged longs started coming down nowhere as bad as the last last week. You could see that this morning about 150 to about 200 million overall, but you could definitely see that this is not nearly as bad as before. Right so again, the the leverage traders, greedy traders gone they’ve been wrecked right, the ones that may be liquidated or margin called through their loans. Well, maybe they’re starting to dissipate too um, and it does look like wall street has just gotten out right.

Besides the true holders like microstrategy and even you can include tesla in there and square and the miners and uh some of the bigger funds out there like grayscale and stuff. Those guys are not going to sell ever, but all the other ones. They seem to have sold off, they seem to have disappeared right, so these are good good signs, they’re good signs that we are forming that bottom, that we are building that base so that we can continue forward. Okay, so there’s a couple things i want to show you guys number one is. If you look at tvl today, tvl of all the d5 projects which did take a big dump, because when the underlying tokens that this is representing, is going down and have taken a dump, then of course tvl goes down right.

Seeing how much all coins have sold off recently, it makes sense, but you can see 24 hour change. 24 hour change actually went up four percent, which means that there’s more people right now taking advantage of d5, and this is what i’ve been suggesting too right. If you’re going to be a long-term holder, why would you not pour more into d5 products where you’re making interest you’re making rewards right? It just makes sense, and it does seem like people are taking advantage, they’re learning from that. That is why you have the tvl.

Actually going up five percent or close to five percent for today, something else i i just got to point out, not that i think it’s it’s. It’S go carry the market, but if you look at the nft market that ft market is up 18 today. So, despite the fact, you do think that hey everyone is being conservative right now and everyone’s leaving the market. Well, the nft market is still ongoing and blowing up so total volume about 17 billion, 16.5 billion, but 24 hour change up 18.

So these are encouraging. Metrics people that are staking and earning rewards, meaning that they are in for the long haul, they’re not exiting the market, and you stab people that are speculating on nfts, because there’s still a lot of nfcs coming out. A lot of hyped up. Brands that are coming in right there’s a lot of stuff going on, so these two are important metrics. Also, if you’re just looking from a technical perspective, this is one from tech dev, which shows that bitcoin is is oversold at the same point.

This is not a weekly scale. The the rsi is getting the same point same point as when bitcoin touched 3 800 back in 2020, not 30 000 from last year. We’Re at the same point as when big one was down to 3 800 and also the same point close to it when bitcoin fell down to 3 000 back in 2019 right. So this does show you from a technical standpoint that bitcoin is extremely extremely oversold. Even the person that invented bollard, your bands is coming out and tweeting how we should start thinking about a bottom in crypto bitcoin has been on a if you look at it.

Bowler demand. I don’t have an example today, but it is on the very low side outside the range of boulder bands. So even the guy who invented bulger bands thinks that hey. We should start thinking about a bottom and, what’s funny, is he hashtag litecoin in here, and people are asking if litecoin is still relevant today, so i’m glad to see that i’m not the only one that feels the same way about litecoin, but just to show you That there are some people that are thinking about it. Thinking about how there’s so much fear and panic going on.

Maybe is start to think about where that bottom is starting to take advantage of our situation rather than think about selling out now, which many people have done so right. Even some of the big influencers have done so recently, because they’re so fearful, they’re thinking that the market could continue to go down and get worse and worse and worse, which it can’t right but think about it, we’re all off more than 50 already for bitcoin right. The downside is more limited than the upside right now, although some haters will say no, the downside is to zero. No bitcoin is not going to zero right, so panic selling now trying to cut your losses now. Just is not a smart thing if you held on all this time, continue to hold right, continue to hold, have that patience and think about taking advantage.

If you can, because that is what the smart investors do, they take advantage when others are fearful like right. Now, all right now, besides this other things that support this case well, a liquid supply for bitcoin continues to go up. This is the ultimate measure of whether or not bitcoin is being deposited into exchanges and being liquidated, and the answer is no. No, it’s not. So all this price action that’s happening right now is basically within the bitcoins on the exchanges.

This is not bitcoin being deposited by the miners not being deposited by michael saylor or any other large whale. All that’s happening right now is happening within exchanges. The liquid supply, which measures bitcoin off the exchanges, continue to rise it doesn’t it didn’t get affected at all? It didn’t go down nearly at all versus the price action, so this is also very, very, very encouraging, and i did talk about this already um. Oh no.

This one is talking about yeah filling that gap, but what’s interesting out of here is the number of bitcoins that has not been moved for at least 12 months hit. Sixty percent so again adds to that liquid supply adds to the fact that holders will continue to hold no matter what and what we’re waiting for is wall street right now that have gotten in in 2021 that are panic, selling and retail investors that simply don’t have The patience to hold we’re waiting for them to get out, but i honestly feel we’re close we’re we’re very close to that point, because the holders continue to believe continue to dca continue to buy and continue to hold all so, there’s no reason why that that we Have any fear that the remaining 60 right is going to drop, because basically, these are the holders, long time holders and miners and the people that truly believe in bitcoin long haul? Okay, so there you go um i’ll, tell you that that’s pretty much it right! Now. What we’re seeing is bitcoin having a pretty good run up above 35 000, which is interesting.

The big question mark, i think a lot of you guys are asking about, is whether or not this will stay. Whether or not this is just another fake out to make you think that we are heading up, but it’s go reverse down. That could be a possibility. Just look at this big scam wick this morning right when bitcoin rallied 37 000 could have been a short squeeze right to liquidate the shorts uh, because that wouldn’t look with a lot of shorts also. But we are basically right back to the point, at least for bitcoin at the same point as we were last night, we didn’t go any lower.

Now the all coins did sell off tremendously, okay because of fear, because of a lot of fear. So if you’re, looking at 24 hours on cmc, you cannotice, that bitcoin is actually it might even flip it to the green. But today, if you’re thinking about dca man, there are a lot of bargains right now, if you’re looking at all coins, because even ethereum went down four percent finance coin, five percent solana down a staggering 10 today, luna barely moved right. I told you guys, i think tara is going to flip solana. It might happen today there’s only a 700 million separating the two, but uh solana might be pushed out to number nine pretty soon if they continue this horrendous sell-off and that’s due to a couple reasons: the continues continuous network outages and the number of vcs holding.

I think that’s crucial the number of vc’s holding they might be just like getting out right now. Right could be why they have been so weak but tara because of terra usd man that is really really carrying them right now, but you have other ones that sold off quite a bit too like avalanche. So so, but still i think, they’re terrific play uh polygon went off big today, down 10, really, no reason for that other than fear, cosmos, look at cosmos, cosmos says screw it we’re not going down. Cosmos is actually up four percent today, that’s fantastic, and that’s really amazing, if you think about the number of the the the fear level today right. So that’s actually really really amazing, but then you also have others like algorand.

I think it’s a good, buy uh chain link, also biggest oracle out. There today is bargains bargains, bargain bargain hunting, day or dca day right v chain uh over 10. Today, uh even uh, you know hedera um, there’s several others in here right today is a good good dca day, if i say so myself, but it’s very very encouraging that bitcoin look at it, i said: can we see 36 000 by the end of this stream? Maybe we are definitely seeing some momentum here if you’re looking at the volume one that wondering whether or not this is legit well, the volume is actually picking up versus you know yesterday, so we’re seeing some good volume into bitcoin right now. Can we actually see green for bitcoin today with the market not doing so well?

Well, that would be pretty encouraging right. This is what we want to see. This is what we want to see in a good way where bitcoin is decoupling from nasdaq, which we know right now, very, very coupled mostly because of wall street, because they’re equating they bought in bitcoin in 2021, and possibly several all coins in 2021 and they’re selling Off because they’re selling off their tech stock and they’re kind of equating the two being the same. But we know they’re not the same, especially when we’re talking about bitcoin. But it’s very encouraging that we’re seeing bitcoin coming up and all coins starting to come up.

A little bit yet the overall market is still being down very, very encouraging. Like i said what everyone is a hundred percent fearful, you know that’s when you may want to go against the hurt right, the herd, mentality, uh. You know what this is. Why i say: do the opposite? Do the opposite, don’t be fearful and don’t follow her all right, um yeah!

I think that’s it uh. That’S it! Don’T the only two other things before q a is. I didn’t want to announce my partner, i trust capital. So if you are thinking about dca, i trust capital allows you to buy crypto utilizing your retirement funds in 401k, and i know many of you guys have taken advantage.

So you don’t have to worry about tax. You don’t have to worry about taxes of capital gains right, so they just added avalanche today. So that’s a pretty big one, but they already have many others. Basically, every single one anything you could think of: bitcoin ethereum, polygon, cardano, solana, avalanche now and even some meme coins. So they did add that and then one other thing i want to show you guys – and this is from my new partner and it’s very important because right now i’ve been talking about dca right and some of you guys may not understand what dca means or how To do it, but basically you’re just setting yourself for schedule right, you’re, setting yourself on a schedule to either buy the dip based on some criteria like a percentage or you’re, going by some time frame, weekly monthly bi-weekly, whatever you may be right.

So that is something i will show you guys with vault, which is one of my new partners. They give you terrific rates just by leaving your crypto in their wallet, so they are one of the latest lending plays out there. However, they also allow you to buy and what they have is called aip, which is basically dcang, and what i like about this is how simple it is. It’S really simple, so you could see you could buy the dip right here. You could set by the dip and what percentage you want if the price goes down by 10, you want to buy the dip okay, if you don’t want to buy the dip, and you want to follow by a daily schedule, weekly schedule, monthly schedule right and you Could set one month three months, six months whatever it may be, you could do so as well right, so that is dca scheduling based on either a time scale or by some kind of criteria like five percent.

Ten percent two percent is way too aggressive, but like ten percent, that’s a pretty good one, but many people wait even longer fifteen twenty percent, whatever right, but just want to show you what you guys, what it’s all about and vault can help you with that and Not only that you can also get some terrific rates with bdc and stable coins, especially with stable coins and many others like ethereum and even xrp, and bad and stellar, and many other cryptos that you guys are familiar with all right. That’S pretty much it! You know what oh we’re almost back to 36 000

This is looking real. This is looking pretty real all right. Let’S do some q a bdc pump faking more than bun rothberger.

Maybe, but let’s, let’s keep an eye. Let’S keep an eye on the volume right here, because volume you could see is starting to pick up right. You can see when we’ve done from 36 over here 36 5 down you look at the volume look at how low the volume is compared to now, so the volume is definitely picking up. It’S picking them in a big way in a good way too so and if you’re looking at like whether or not bitcoin is oversold right now, you can see on the one hour time frame, macd below just flipped to the green uh rsi touched the bottom. When we hit about 33 000 this today, it’s starting to come back up right and if you’re, looking at four hour well, four hour, macd flipped to the green, also hit that bottom this morning and stochastic rsi, which was actually coming down, is starting to come back Up and if you look at the daily man daily shows, we are extremely oversold: macd has not flipped yet, but our size at 25 and stochastic is about to flip up.

So i mean from a technical standpoint. Bitcoin is extremely oversold. We know that we already knew that right, but uh what’s going on right now is maybe people are starting to recognize that bitcoin is too oversold and we need to get in and we need to go against the herd, mentality or maybe they’re, realizing that there is No better buy to hedge against inflation than bitcoin or there’s a third theory i saw someone say in the chat, maybe because ukraine and ukraine, citizens are starting to buy bitcoin to get their wealth out, get their money out of ukraine. If this escalates, which is an interesting theory, i saw someone mention it. That could also be the case too.

So that’s actually pretty interesting, but we’ll see we’ll see where this goes. While i do q a um all right scrolling up here, real raid bosses. This is one of your best streams ever i appreciate that i do put a lot of thought and heart into these streams. You know – sometimes i i you know it really gets to me, but um, but you know i continue forward because i i want you guys to not do irrational things that make the same mistakes that i made over the last few years. I’Ve made so many of them, so many of them, tomorrow’s fed meeting, won’t affect prices much tomorrow.

Won’T it’s wednesday wednesday is when powell actually comes out and announces what they decided. So we have to wait until wednesday to see alexander said. I will wait until the powell meeting then proceeded by it’s illogical do so because the selloff currently might be far far from the bottom now. No, i don’t agree with that. I, if you’re trying to trade if you’re trying to be a trader, that’s what you would do, traders look for confirmations they get in and out of the market right and some, i would say many that come into the market.

Think they’re traders! That’S why robin hood is so so uh. You know so widely used by the millennials right, why it got popular, because everyone thinks they could time the market. Everyone thinks that that they could get in on the bottom and get out on the top and most people that try to be traders get wrecked and they lose money because you just don’t know you got to think about it. Everyone knows that the meeting is coming out on wednesday right, so everyone already knows that look at this we’re at 36.

2. Now everyone knows the meeting meetings go come out tomorrow, two days and everyone right now is anticipating that it’s gon na be super super hawkish, which means it’s gon na, be super super bearish for the market. But that’s what everyone thinks, and is everyone really right? All the time, in most cases, no the herd mentality is usually wrong. Right, that’s where the smart investor will say.

Well, maybe they are wrong. So i’m going to hedge against what everyone else is saying: i’m going to dca, i’m going to buy a little bit doesn’t mean that you buy all in right. You buy a little bit in case. Everyone else is wrong and i become right and i profit from that right, but nevertheless, again going back to this trader mentality, don’t try to trade, be an investor be in it for the long haul, because that’s what you need to be. You need to be investor.

Basically, to make money, and – and i don’t – i could argue – that with crypto with stocks with anything, you want to be investor, not a trader. And yes, you could argue some traders successful, but i would argue the most successful people when it comes to investing, is all from from holding and buying and buying low and holding and being an investor, not a trader, all right, uh, let’s see here leo okay, i Appreciate that um rude tv says you’re the best crypto therapist. I appreciate that, what’s your uh mark outlast as you’re the best. What’S your opinion on woo network and wu token, i’ve never been big into the the project, but i heard they they got bought out or they have some big partnership with some other firm um. I forgot who, but it’s just a project.

I never got really involved with, so i can’t really answer that. I i just remember very early on. I hated their. I hated their marketing slogan on their um web page, but they’re they’re, a terminal that helps people to trade and i think they’re really involved with uh algorithmic trading and um and um. What do you call it?

I forgot but yeah it’s for traders um. I think you were wrong about d5 chain the other day. It’S not based on ease it’s a separate blockchain based on opt or optimize for d5. Well, then, what chain is it based on? Is it a zone chain um i’ve heard some people talk about d5 chain.

Sorry, i just didn’t: uh didn’t uh didn’t get a chance to to uh to properly look at it. Uh your event, uh joseph says your video on luna earning help me earn a lot. Am i luna onenote? You can use spectrum protocol to auto compound your anker, ust liquidity pool, interesting see. The thing is, i don’t, like anker hasn’t been doing that.

Well, so, in terms of using liquidity pools, i would not use anchor slash ust. I would much rather use luna ust or some kind of pair against ust or some other pair with luna, not anchor selfies anchor itself has not been doing that well, but what is doing well right now is bitcoin. Volume is still holding it’s very encouraging. Let’S see, let’s see where this goes. If, if somehow right, you could see local local top recently has been about 36 five, which we’re not too far from off.

So you can see right here and then we had over here. 36. 5. 36. 6.

If we could actually smash through that get above 37 and actually hold it and utilize it as a support again like before, that would be fantastic. If we could see that happen, that would be fantastic. I don’t think that’s going to happen during the stream, but we will see we’ll see jelly bean. I appreciate that um phantom is pumping well phantom. I i mean i just did a video on phantom yesterday and phantom’s tvl is like blowing up like crazy.

So, where is phantom right now? Phantom is at number 28 they’re in the green. It’S very encouraging that today i mean look at cosmos. I don’t know what’s going on with cosmos right now, but cosmos is defying all all the fun right now up. Nine percent today they’re actually getting pretty close their all-time high.

So remember for months, i’ve been telling you guys to hold cosmos, it’s undervalued right and it’s defying all odds right now and and having a huge day on a day like today. Imagine when we actually do have green days uh, it’s looking very promising right and tara is still holding strong, barely down today, right um, this flip with with solana. I think that could happen like either today or tomorrow. Um. I think that’s that’s for sure.

Gon na happen, uh all right. Let’S see here, uh alameda research equals market maker, equal market manipulation. I don’t know if they’re a market maker, they’re, more investor they’re, they they’ve invested in every single nft project, metaverse project, so they’re definitely investor they get in very early. They invest seed round strategic rounds of basically every single nft project that has any kind of promise so they’re. The reason why they’ve they’ve gotten that huge evaluation recently is because all their investments into the smaller projects, so i don’t consider them a market maker.

I concerned i’m, you know just like a vc of crypto um. Theoretically franco asks. Can i exchange to list bitcoin, so all coins be bought only with stable coins. Of course, of course, that’s theoretically possible. Will they ever do that?

That would be really stupid of them, because there’s still so many people that trade with bitcoin there’s still so many trading pairs with bitcoin. So can they do so? Yes, it’ll be stupid if they did um what if wall street keeps tanking well you’re talking about what? If nasdaq keeps tanking right, what, if the entire market keeps tanking well, it could but their grasp over not grass, but their their control over bitcoin goes as far as the number they hold right and if they’re already dumping, bitcoin, they’re, already selling off bitcoin and and They’Re trying to prepare for the worst right then at some point you think that well, their control is going to lessened or loosened, because they’ve already sold out right, they can play, they can still buy bitcoin, futures and stuff, but futures have an indirect correlation with bitcoin. I mean future is based on cash and there’s no etf in the u.

, so they could be buying the etf from canada. Maybe panic selling that, but if they buy into a great scale, bitcoin trust share. It just cause grayscale to buy more bitcoin that never gets released back into the market, so uh to answer your question. Eventually we’re gon na see if wall street continues his path of just selling off talk. I i believe we’re gon na see that that inflection point where basically there’s no more to be sold by them and that’s when we can truly recover.

You know it’s a different thing, and i’ve made mention of this. 2021 is different for bitcoin, because, honestly, it was led by institutional investors and wall street. We never had that before we had very. We had four year cycles where it was driven by retail, maybe some manipulation by the whales, but it was primarily driven by retail right now. What we’re seeing is driven by institutions of wall street right, but during this time many many many people have um really come to basically just trading bitcoin as a store of value instead of a tradable asset.

Many are just viewing as as a as asset you just hold right, which is why the liquid supply is high, why the number of holders is high and many that want to trade or make money have moved to the l1 and d5 and nfts right. So i i think from that perspective, it’s also retail. I guess retail consumption of bitcoin has changed in 2021, 2022 versus all previous cycles before all right, let’s see here, my chat is like my chat. Is all screwy guys. So if i miss some of your super chats, i apologize it’s like it’s like getting frozen and stuff, and i have to like refresh uh when you found out.

Salah’S was mania held by vcs. It changed my mind towards that. Unfortunately, uh thanks for sharing that with us yeah. You know, unfortunately, it’s one of those things when it was pumpy. You could argue that the vcs involved they helped it.

They helped it pump. Not only did they not sell, but they probably bought a lot while it was going up right and one of the reasons why i i got involved with solana and bought it. Myself is because i found out how well-backed it was by sam bankman freida of ftx. He really really really really loves solana. He put a lot of money in his lana and solana based project, but recently he’s been diversifying he’s been putting more money into phantom and some of the other projects like alameda, research and stuff like that right.

So but now yeah to answer your question now: it’s kind of reversed some of the vcs got like fearful and i’m pretty sure, they’re they’re selling um tesla 888 885 now tesla well, it seems like the market is starting to come up a little bit. Well: negative: 790: negative 405

Yeah, it started coming a little bit, but i mean if you’re a stock investor too. You know not just crypto. If you’re a stock investor today is pretty pretty horrific day, but also you know good time to dca in into stocks. I mean especially some of these.

Some of these uh sold off crypto stocks right, like microstrategy microstrategy. I mean they’re they’re in a weird spot, because even when bitcoin was really pumping and overall market was doing good, you know it seemed like wall street did not like microstrategy. They kind of just like kept it, you know at a ceiling and they would not let it go, but others started to do well, like coinbase started, doing really well ride and the the the mining company started doing well and they’re they’re, just showing weakness now, but Uh they have some tremendous movement in 2021, so it’ll be interesting to see if they continue to get plummeted by wall street, or they will also find that base just like bitcoin and continue further. I think i think it’s the latter. I think this ladder icp all-time low, is the worst speculator.

I know i think, there’s much better projects to speculate on than icp uh. If we’re looking at like what what’s like the most oversold today, let’s just take a look, since we have time what what’s the most oversold project today that i still believe in i still like uh solada is one of them, but i did warn you guys yesterday And we’ll keep closer eye on them, not only because they’re vc involvement, but the endless network outages and it caused a lot of people to get liquidated with their d5 um with certain d5 projects and that offered leveraging and collateral so um. So, even though i support them, i’m gon na go a little bit less aggressive with them with solana, but i will keep a closer eye on them, but others uh, you know cardano dropped below a dollar. I thought that was a pretty good pickup even at 105. I think it’s pretty good avalanche, i think, is a great pickup.

I you guys know me. I skipped over tara, but i really really really like tara. I really like tara cosmos. I’Ve been telling you guys about how undervalued it is so it’s today. Unfortunately, it’s not red, but if it was deep in the red i would definitely say: go go cosmos as well, but you know some of the other ones like chain link is always a staple and then phantom.

I really like phantom. Their tv has blown up like crazy recently, so unfortunately they’re not in the red, but still, i think, a good pick up for last seven days, they’re still down 25 percent uh. You look at some of the other ones yeah. Well, it looks like uh matter versus got destroyed today. Right, i think metaverses will come back, better versus will come back uh.

The hype is not over, nfts are not over, so i think decentralized, sandbox, they’re gon na come back v chain still have big hope for them for 2022 because of d5 uh, pretty good dca you can see sandboxes down. Elrond is another promising one elrond tezos harmony, especially harmony harmony, sold off like crazy, recently, 43 last seven days, jewel also sold off crazily from d5 kingdoms. I think they’re really good pickups right now, because we know harmony is doing the same thing. The other l1s are doing they’re growing and defy kingdoms, which is the most popular decks and game on harmony. I think they’re gon na continue forward they’re gon na open up on avalanche soon.

So i think their prime prime pickup right now as a dca candidate and there’s many others in here. Uh quite surprised that neo neo is holding is up here, but you know some uh, some other ones like engine because their new infinity chain kucoin, because their exchange, i think they are terrific, buys um yeah. There’S a lot of hype about oasis recently. I think, because they’re partnering up with uh facebook with the metaverse, i think that has driven them up quite a bit, but yeah they’ve been sold off a lot like. Are we for decentralized storage play pretty good pickup kadena up below five dollars?

I think they’re gon na be terrific. I think they’re gon na have a very bright future, so i think they’re, a good pickup and then uh rounding out the list – that’s about it, but these are just ones off of my top. My head, real, quick there’s. So many other ones right now, so many other ones right now, where’s bitcoin bitcoin is still holding 35.8 um.

Let’S see here dan i already mentioned about ukraine and russia. Uh i’ll have to agree with david saying: lakers are trash right now i not something that i look forward to in terms of watching their games. It just seems like they have no clue. What’S going on, frank vogel will be gone. They’Re gon na need to bring someone else in to take control.

Uh randy says god margin called and lost more than i wanted to say. I’M i’m i’m sorry to hear that this is the reason why, when you know earlier in 2021, when everything was looking cheery, you had you know michael saylor come out and say: hey, you know what everyone should just take a loan against their bitcoin rather than sell It take a loan and utilize that right he was directing that more toward the miners, and many miners have adopted it right and uh and if you could afford to do so, then great, but unfortunately we get. We go through volatility uh. You know volatile times right and bitcoin has fallen below. Fifty percent ethereum definitely has fallen below fifty 50 and when you get margin called you got to put in more, if you don’t, they just go liquidate your position right and many people recently have been liquidated not from leverage but from taking a loan against their their.

You know crypto and i’ve always advised against it. I’Ve always said: don’t do it, because there is a risk. There is a risk. So i even heard like rob from digital asset news, that he got margin called two, but i saw his latest video where he said he put it more collateral right. So it seems like he’s.

Okay, but many others have experienced that pain as well. So that’s not helping the overall market right now either uh. Do i like gala, i do like gala. I think ola is good. It’S good good good hold all right anything else.

Young millionaire says i took a loan against my bitcoin to 62 000

Well, you still got a few thousand to go. Hopefully we don’t go below 30 000, but uh. It does show you right. Um, you just got ta, be you got ta, be careful. You got ta, be careful with your money.

So if you’re gon na get in the game right, don’t invest more than what you can afford to lose, be an investor be in the long haul. Dca in two things, don’t go all in into things right and just don’t don’t don’t risk you know. Buying crypto is already risky enough. Don’T risk don’t increase the risk even more by playing with leverage or by borrowing against your bitcoin, because if you do that, you’re basically saying you can’t afford it, so don’t do it right, don’t play with leverage or borrowing, because unless you’re a miner, that’s different uh. If you need to pay for operations, it’s different, but here’s an interesting thought.

Those miners that also borrowed against their bitcoin to buy their mining machines. Wonder if they’re having the same issue right now too zack i just answered about kadena. No, i don’t think they’re dead and and to be honest, asking a question like that serves no purpose. It’S like asking is bitcoin dead. Do you really think i’m gon na say is bitcoin dead?

Is kadena dead? No, it’s not so uh! Yes, thanos is right. Uh, can you talk about cbdc’s and how this will affect bitcoin in the future? No, it doesn’t affect bitcoin at all.

Zero cbdc’s is just replacing the dollar to be digital dollar. Nothing changes, it will still be inflated, it’ll still be controlled by central bank. So it does not change things, it will affect crypto. That’S in the payment system. You know payment space, but bitcoin is a store value.

In my opinion, many bitcoin maxis will still say: bitcoin should be a payment system, something that you use lies like say, lightning, network and use it day-to-day. You know – and you could definitely use that like that, but with something like bitcoin, which has volatility and you’re rewarded for holding it, because it just keeps going up, it keeps appreciating it. It is a store value to me. So cbdc’s, in my opinion, does not affect bitcoin at all. It’S not a bitcoin killer, zero chance, all right i’ll.

Let you guys go uh. I’M gon na grab some lunch and you guys should too, but it’s very good. It’S very good to pick one. It’S actually coming up and maybe in the green suit right and we do have good volume, so it does show that there is some legs behind this rally and not just a fake out where we could go down. I mean it could, of course excuse me.

It still could, but this is concurrently encouraging. But overall, my point of this video is: is this the end for bitcoin and crypto when everyone is predicting doom and gloom when the equities market is selling off like there’s no tomorrow and other people, prominent people that have said i’ve sold out, i’m done we’re gon Na go down much further right when everyone is looking super bearish. That’S when i say you go against the herd. Okay, you don’t follow what everyone else is doing. If everyone else is jumping off a bridge does not mean that you should follow with them right, maybe take a parachute before you jump off and uh.

So that’s why i would argue that hey. Maybe this is a good time to be dca, buy a little buy. The dip right take advantage of the bargains that are out there. You never know you never know things could go down, but that’s when you dc a little more right. That’S where you just got to make sure that you have.

First of all, you don’t panic. Second of all, you stay patient third you’re, treating bitcoin and crypto as investment and fourth right, if you have the ability dca what others are fearful. That’S my strategy. That’S my game plan and i’m going to stick to that. So you decide what you want to do.

Thanks for tuning in smash a like subscribe to the channel, i will see you guys tonight. 8 30 p.m. Central standard time, all right take care, guys, bye! You

via IS THIS THE END FO CRYPTO…?

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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Crypto.com Hacked – BTC CRASH & MORE!!

Welcome to the coin bureau weekly crypto review here: are this week’s top headlines in the crypto news nfts, please, the ufc launches an nft marketplace, bud light to tease its nft during the super bowl and twitter introduces nft profile pictures. What’S next for this crypto niche el salvador in the spotlight, president najib buchelli changes his profile pic while buying the dip and meets with the turkish president to discuss important matters. Is turkey about to do a 180 on btc bullish signs for bitcoin fidelity releases, a crypto report, bitcoin’s hash rate hits another all-time high: intel teases a next generation bitcoin mining machine and american banks inch towards crypto trading. When could we see a crypto market reversal, big crypto bucks, crypto projects raise hundreds of millions while vcs and crypto companies put down billions. Where is all this money going money gone from crypto.

om? One of the biggest companies in the industry gets hit with a hack and confirms that 400 users were affected. Everything you need to know. Crypto ad bans, the united kingdom, spain and singapore move to make crypto ads illegal, despite increasing adoption. Why are they doing this washington woes and warnings, fiat currency versus cbdc politicians versus proof of work and people versus politicians?

A short summary of everything that happened and how it could affect crypto and a closer look at what comes next in this week’s crypto market forecast, all this and more in just a moment good morning afternoon or evening. Thank you for tuning in my name is guy, and what you’re about to see is ducational content, not financial advice? You can find any topics you’re looking for using the time stamps in the video timeline and now for today’s top stories.

The ufc finally launched its highly anticipated nft marketplace called ufc strike, something that had been announced almost two years ago, ufc strike nfts will be issued on the flow blockchain, the same one used for the nba’s top shot nft marketplace. If you watched my recent video about the top nft issuers, you’ll know that the flow blockchain was built by dapper labs, the company behind cryptokitties, in addition to the ufc and the nba, the flow blockchain will soon support the nfl’s own upcoming nft marketplace dubbed all day.

An exact launch date for the nfl’s all-day nft marketplace has yet to be announced, but it is expected to be released before the end of the current nfl season now, given that each nfl season ends with the super bowl, it’s reasonable to assume that this is when The nfl’s nft marketplace will be released, it looks like bud light will be revealing its own nft during the super bowl, as per an agreement made between the beer company and the nouns foundation, who gifted bud light, one of their famous nfts in exchange for exposure during.

The event bud light is also expected to sell limited edition beers, which will only be available to noun holders, though it’s not currently clear whether this exclusive beverage will be sold at the super bowl. What is clear, though, is that bud light has already begun delivering on its promises by changing its profile picture on twitter to noun number 179. Oddly enough bud, lite has apparently not taken advantage of twitter’s recently introduced nft profile picture feature which is currently limited to twitter. Blue users on ios this might have something to do with the fact that twitter’s nft profile pictures connect to a person’s crypto wallet to prove ownership, something which simultaneously reveals that person’s crypto holdings in said wallet. It might also have to do with the fact that twitter’s new feature doesn’t filter for verified nft collections, meaning anyone can copy and paste and mint a fake board ape and have it as their twitter profile picture.

Another prolific personality who changed their profile picture over the weekend, was salvadoran president najeeb bukheli, who added a hat and name tag with the mcdonald’s logo to his existing photo. Now this is a reference to the popular meme which pokes fun at the idea that crypto investors will have to resort to working a minimum wage job when the crypto market crashes. This context makes najib’s profile picture change a bit concerning, given that he’s the leader of a country and because najib bought the dip shortly before changing his profile. Pick el salvador’s latest purchase of btc brings the country’s total to 1801 btc and marks the lowest entry price. Since it made btc legal tender last september, the salvadoran government’s chivo bitcoin wallet also recently surpassed four million users, accounting for about two-thirds of the country’s total population.

El salvador’s bitcoin adoption has left many wondering which country will be next to adopt btc as legal tender, and there are many contenders if you watched last week’s crypto review you’ll know that the island nation of tonga seems to be next in line, given the economic similarities. It has with el salvador, namely a largely unbanked population, that’s heavily reliant on remittances. One of the last countries that comes to mind in this respect is turkey, which made crypto payments illegal last year and appears to be on the cusp of a full-scale crypto crackdown. This is because the value of the turkish lira has been crumbling due to poor central bank monetary policy, and millions of turks have been turning to cryptocurrencies to protect their purchasing power. It should come as no surprise, then that president buchelli’s announcement that he would be meeting with turkish president, tayyip erdogan took many by surprise.

Although many media outlets report that no crypto related discussions took place, many find it hard to believe that it didn’t come up. Given the peculiar circumstances, both countries find themselves in, even if bitcoin was discussed, though it’s unlikely that it will become legal tender in turkey, given the country’s size and economic profile. Unfortunately, it seems that nobody noticed another bullish headline around that time, which is that bulgaria is exploring crypto payments now, if you’re wondering which countries could be next to adopt btc as legal tender, be sure to check out my video about that. Using the link in the description once you’re done watching this video anyways, if you needed any more confirmation that crypto is more than a meme look no further than the recent crypto report put out by fidelity. The second largest asset manager in the world, fidelity’s report can be summarized in a single sentence quote.

There is very high stakes, game theory at play here, whereby, if bitcoin adoption increases the countries that secure some bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers. Well, it’s evident that bitcoin adoption is increasing, so, according to fidelity, this means countries should buy btc and as the demand for btc increases, so too does the incentive to mine bitcoin, which is why the hash rate of its network continues to hit all-time highs, regardless of The price, as some of you will know, bitcoin’s hashrate, tends to be correlated with the price of btc and though there have been some divergences in that regard as of late, it may only be a matter of time before the two come back in line. In the meantime, tech companies around the world continue to develop crypto tech such as intel, which is expected to announce a next generation bitcoin mining machine. In february the so-called bonanza mine reduces the energy required to mine one btc by 15, something which could have a profound effect on the energy use of the crypto mining industry. If it’s widely adopted.

What’S more, is that intel filed the patent for its next generation? Crypto mining machine way back in 2018, which just goes to show what a long-term vision it has when it comes to crypto. Now this is all pretty damn bullish, but it pales in comparison to an even more bullish announcement that was apparently missed by the crypto media. This is that around 300 u.s banks will be introducing crypto trading to their clients in the coming weeks, something that is the product of a partnership between them and nydig, which was penned last june.

Now accessibility is arguably the most important factor when it comes to the crypto market, and this upcoming integration will make crypto as accessible as possible to millions of us investors. This means that it could be the catalyst for a crypto market reversal and it’s not the only upcoming crypto milestone either more about the others in the description anyhow, it’s not just banks that are betting big on crypto these days, there’s been no shortage of active investment From vcs and companies from inside and outside of the industry, and this investment has only continued to accelerate regardless of current market conditions. For starters, there’s crypto.com, which announced that it would be increasing its existing 200 million d5 nft and crypto gaming fund to 500 million and then there’s animoka brands, which announced a 360 million dollar, raise last tuesday, bringing the nft and crypto gaming companies valuation to over 5 Billion this is 40 million less than privacy, preserving secret networks, 400 million ecosystem fund, which was announced last wednesday and consists of money pooled by various crypto vcs andreas and horowitz one such crypto vc firm also revealed on thursday that it’s building a 4.5 billion crypto fund, Which will focus on web 3?

And then, on friday crypto indexing protocol, the graph announced a 50 million raise funded by various fintech vcs. This brings the grand total to over 6 billion and that’s just counting the headlines that caught my eye. I know there are many hundreds of millions that i missed or didn’t even make the news now make no mistake. These massive raises confirm that crypto is not a phase most. If not, all of these big investors are in it for the long haul and they’re placing some seriously big bets on crypto projects if you’re curious about which cryptocurrencies have raised the most money post, ico i’ll leave a video about that.

In the description, though, i will note that many of those projects have raised millions more since that video went out hard to keep up with a runaway train, but back to crypto.com. On the same day, the company announced it would be increasing its crypto funding. It also announced on twitter that some users were reporting quote suspicious activity and that crypto.com had paused withdrawals from its app out of caution.

For those who don’t know, the crypto.com app is custodial, meaning any crypto you have on. There is being held in one big wallet that is not owned by you. By contrast, the crypto.com wallet is non-custodial, meaning any crypto you have on.

There is owned by you, the custodial nature of the crypto Com app makes it not much different from a cryptocurrency exchange. This makes it a very lucrative target for hackers, hence why crypto.com purchased a 750 million dollar insurance policy last september. Hopefully, this insurance policy came in handy because it looks like a hacker was able to bypass two-factor authentication for around 500 crypto.com users and withdraw their btc and eth.

The total amount stolen is estimated to be around 33 million dollars worth crypto.com’s response to the incident came almost four days later and it included the announcement of the company’s account protection program which will reimburse up to 250 000 of any crypto stolen from a user by An unauthorized third party, the program, will go into effect on february the first now, while this is certainly reassuring, it seems that many crypto.com users are still having issues regaining access to their accounts and not just the ones who are affected by the hack. Many have also pointed out that crypto Com has spared next to no expense when it comes to marketing, which begs the question of why the security of its platform is subpar. In any case, this isn’t is only one on a long list of crypto hacks that can be easily avoided by using a non-custodial wallet and, if you’re wondering which ones are about that, i have a video for you in the description.

Speaking of marketing, it looks like the global war on crypto ads has officially begun. The first shot was fired by the united kingdom a few months ago and though it started as a bam on mean coin ads. It’S close to evolving to a blanket ban on crypto ads of all kinds. According to coindesk, the financial conduct authority or fca will limit crypto ads to so-called sophisticated investors, aka high net worth individuals in the country starting later this year. This slippery slope is why similar headlines in spain and singapore give me the chills to be fair.

All spanish regulators want for now is for crypto influencers to disclose whether they’ve been paid to promote the crypto projects. They’Re talking about and give unbiased analyses of coins and tokens now, not only is this a reasonable regulation, but it’s also one that the coin bureau abides by, including our spanish language channel. We are not paid to promote crypto projects and we do our best to give unbiased analyses of coins and tokens. As for all spanish influencers, who are shamelessly shilling, a hefty fine is in their future. Meanwhile, singapore seems to be a few steps ahead of the uk.

This is because it has not only banned crypto ads, but crypto atms as well. Regulators claim that the mere presence of crypto atms is a form of advertising, something which caught many atm operators off guard. This aggressive stance suggests there’s more to singapore’s crypto ad crackdown than consumer protection, and you could argue that it has its origins in singapore’s own central bank, digital currency. Singapore is currently developing its cbdc, and other countries in the region have explicitly stated that they are using cbdc’s to combat cryptocurrency. This is why the federal reserve’s recent digital dollar white paper could foreshadow some very bad news for the crypto market in the united states.

I’Ll be covering the digital dollar white paper later this week. So all i’ll say here is that the federal reserve itself seems to be torn on whether or not to issue a cbdc. This is simply because cbdc’s give way too much power to the people in power and even if the intentions of the people in power today are good and just there’s no guarantee that this will be the case when the next person comes around. Even so, u.s politicians continue to push for a digital dollar and it may also be the primary driver behind the concerns they claim to have around bitcoin mining.

This was discussed at length in a hearing last week, which i’ll also be doing a video on. So all i’ll say here is that there are very few us politicians who are legitimately concerned about bitcoin mining. In fact, many of them have bought the idea that bitcoin mining can be used to subsidize renewable energy, something that i talked about in another video that you can find in the description. Moreover, by this point in time, bashing bitcoin would make a politician very unpopular with the people and that’s something that they seem to be hyper aware of as well. Another thing that the people don’t like is all the insider trading going on in the white house, which is why a bipartisan bill looking to block politicians from doing just that might actually pass.

Funnily enough, the politician who is in favor of banning other politicians from trading stocks is expected to retire at the end of the year. If you want to know more about just how bad insider trading is in the halls of power check out the video in the description, turning to the charts, we can of course see that it’s been an abnormally bloody week for the crypto market. Btc is barely holding on at 35k and it’s honestly looking pretty bad on the daily chart. The weekly chart tells a different story, however, as you can see, we’ve wicked out of the lower end of the bollinger bands in the past and the rsi is extremely oversold. What this means is that the weekend might have been the perfect, buy the dip opportunity and we could start to see a reversal in the coming weeks.

This ultimately depends on what happens this week and that is almost anyone’s guess. The thing i’ll personally be paying attention to is the federal reserve’s meeting and press conference which are scheduled for tuesday and wednesday. Let’S hope papa powell says something that will make the markets pump and you can find out what he’s been saying lately using the link in the description. This week’s winners are well. There are no winners this week unless you count stable coins, which seem to be up a whopping, 0.

percent, that’s more than the interest you earn at a bank these days. In all seriousness, there are two things i want to point out when it comes to last week’s crypto market activity. The first is how well decentralized stable coins like ust, held up under pressure, ust, barely budged off its peg, and its market cap actually rose by a few hundred million in response to all the demand. This translated to a weekend pump for luna what’s interesting, is that the cryptocurrencies that felt the brunt of last week’s crash were ethereum competitors such as near protocol, phantom avalanche and harmony. Now the answer to this mystery seems to lie in bitcoin’s dominance which rose substantially while ethereum dominance and altcoin dominance fell.

Basically, people who were still in the green on altcoins rotated what remained of their gains into btc. But it looks like this trend was short-lived, as we’ve already seen signs of a rebound among alts and a corresponding decline in dominance. I will never forget what one of my favorite crypto youtubers said, and that’s that the crypto market will be extremely volatile as we approach the top. If you’ve invested too much or worse borrowed to invest, you will quote puke your position, as perhaps some of you have already done. If that’s the case, don’t sweat it we’re still early, and i think it’s too soon to say that the bull market is over more about that in a video later this week, and that’s all for today’s coin bureau weekly crypto review, if you enjoyed it folks, you Know what to do hit that, like button subscribe button and bell icon too, if you want more of me head on over to twitter, tiktok and instagram to get a sneak peek behind the scenes.

If you join my telegram channel you’ll get the daily crypto updates. You crave and signing up for my weekly newsletter is a great way to get the tools, tips and tricks you need to get paid and of course, you can support the channel by heading over to the coin, bureau, merch store and picking up a shirt or hoodie Or both links to all these resources are in the description. Thank you. So much for watching and i’ll see you all. In next week’s episode you

via Crypto.com Hacked – BTC CRASH & MORE!!

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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DON’T MIIS – Ethereum: ETH Potential in 2022!!!

What’s up with Ethereum, will it go back above its all-time high and beyond, or is this the most we’ve seen for this bull run? When is eth 2.0 going to be completed anyway, and what impact could this have on price? Am i still bullish in my video today I’m going to attempt to answer all of these questions. I’ll also give you some of my own thoughts on where eth could be headed.

So don’t go anywhere. Sorry, folks, I really must remember to switch this off, I’m so sorry, hello, guy, meow mukka is cousin, Barry from barking how’s. It going sunshine, barry, hello, nice to hear from you, yeah I’ll, get right to it. Guy me old, china you’re a busy man. I’M a busy man things to see people to do.

You know how it is uh. Okay, so i met some geezer down the battle cruiser last night. What said you were in the old financial advice game been watching your channel any so i thought to myself. Yes, please I’ll have some of that, so i picked up the old dog and bone, and here we are what you got for me. Ah, sorry, barry the the chap you talked to must have got the wrong end of the stick.

You see this channel is just for education and entertainment, I’m afraid I’m not qualified to give financial advice, I’m just a chap on youtube who uh, who loves crypto? That is too bad mile muka too bad. Well, let’s get a couple of points in one of these days and have a proper now love to stay in chat, but you know it is of course yeah well good to chat, barry catch up soon, right, oh totally, dozie prep! Ah, yes, please love! I’ve got a mouth drier than gandy’s flip-flop over here.

Ah cousin berry there’s a reason we haven’t stayed in touch anyhow. I should add that, as well as not being a financial advisor, i also hold eth as part of my personal portfolio. Just so, as you know, also, if you want to see more from the coin bureau and maybe meet some other gruesome members of my extended family, then subscribe down there and give the old bell a ding. Dong too then youtube lets. You know when i release another video time stamps in the video timeline.

If that’s your thing, but if you watch till the end, then this video does better and i feel happier. Okay, that’s the waffle out of the way, let’s crack on. Arguably, the most consequential upgrade to ethereum since its birth is the move to ethereum 2.0. This is due to come to a head this year, as we move on to the next stage of the upgrade the proof of stake merge.

Now. I think we need a quick update on what exactly is being upgraded with eth 2.0, so that we’re all on the same page, it’s also important to clear up any misconceptions that are out there about eth 2.0, so the eth 2 0 upgrade officially got underway in december of 2020, when the developers launched what is called the beacon chain. This was a separate ethereum network that would function as the eventual proof-of-stake blockchain it stores and manages the registry of validators and coordinates the shard chains.

The next stage of the eth 2.0 roadmap is the proof-of-stake merge. Now this was originally planned for last year, but was pushed back to this year. Quite simply, the merge is when the current ethereum proof of work chain will merge with the beacon chain. This will mark the end of the proof-of-work consensus mechanism, and miners will no longer be crunching crazy numbers.

Instead, you’ll have network validators who will stake eth in order to propagate blocks. There are, of course, many benefits that will come from this. One of these is the fact that maintaining the ethereum network will be more environmentally friendly. The energy used in order to maintain a proof-of-work blockchain is one of the biggest sticking points for those cryptocurrencies that use them. For example, according to statista, the energy needed to push through one ethereum transaction is 238 kilowatt hours.

The energy required to process 100 000 visa transactions is only 148 kilowatt hours, so the move to proof of stake will make ethereum a lot more green. Now. This has important implications which i’ll cover in due course but and here’s the most important point. The proof of stake. Merge won’t immediately lead to a massive increase in scaling.

That’S because it’s all still one blockchain that will have to process transactions in a sequential manner. The massive scaling component of eth 2.0 comes with the launch of sharding. Yes, that’s sharding with a d just before you guys jump on those comments. Now, for those who don’t know, sharding is the concept of breaking up the ethereum blockchain into a number of different?

Well, shards: it’s a concept: that’s been used in database scaling for a number of years and is now being implemented in blockchain technology as it relates to ethereum. These separate shards will be their own independent blockchains called shard chains. 64 shard chains will spread the ethereum network load and allow different transactions to be propagated. Concurrently. Quite simply, it’s parallel computing.

Now there isn’t time to go into the exact mechanics of sharding here, but i’ll leave links to some resources in the description to give you a bit more info. But the point is that the crazy scalability improvements that you’re hoping for are only likely to come after. We transition to sharding, okay, so that’s a short overview of eth 2.0. But how far are we along well when it comes to progress?

Things are moving steadily, albeit slowly. Firstly, in regards to the beacon chain that has been live for over a year now and the amount of eath staked in it continues to climb there’s currently over nine million eath locked up here on the first birthday of the beacon chain. Last year, vitalik released an updated roadmap for ethe 2.0. It’S really interesting and i’ll leave a link to it below.

Basically, it shows what we can expect to be built on eth 2 0 post the merge we have the surge, verge purge and splurge seems the v-dog is as much of a poet as yours. Truly now, a few days after this tweet, he also released a blog post that took us through his vision of the ethereum 2.0 endgame. He spoke of developing trustlessness and censorship resistance to levels, according with his accepted standards, that post is also linked to below by the way anyway. This should give you a comprehensive picture of what we can expect on the ethereum network in the coming years.

The merge is just the first step towards that dream of a decentralized computer which we all hope ethereum can one day become, but baby steps. The merge comes first about two weeks after vitalik released this. The ethereum devs launched the kinsugi test net. This was a quote longer living test net that would allow developers to experiment with ethereum in the exact manner that the network would operate after the changeover. These devs could, for example, test certain defy apps and tools and the eth developers encourage them to give it a fair crack of the whip.

If you are a developer, i’ll leave a link to it in the description, so you can give it a spin yourself and fun fact: kinsugi is the japanese art of putting broken pottery pieces back together with gold, and i couldn’t think of more apt metaphor: anywho. There was a lot of testing of kintsugi over the holidays and on the first dev call earlier this january senior eth 2.0 researcher tim baiko gave an update. There were a few minor issues here and there and work began to fix them according to tim’s tweet thread. There are a few more updates that need to be worked on before the merge they’re, also going to launch one more merge test net, which quote may be the last one prior to the existing going through the merge okay.

So that’s from one of the senior devs on ease 2.0. However, there were many in the community who were slightly disheartened by comments that vitalik made in a recent episode of the bankless podcast. This was to discuss that roadmap that i mentioned earlier in it. The hosts asked him to rate the progress that ethereum had made so far in the past six years towards the end game that he envisions.

He said that it was 50 there. Now many on crypto twitter appear to have been thrown off by that statement, as it would of course imply that it would take another six years to realize vitalik’s full vision. However, i think that the fudd was misguided. That’S because the statement was in relation to the entire road map of his, the merge was only the first step, one which will hopefully be taken soon. Moreover, he claimed in that same podcast episode that once the sharding was implemented, then they would be 80 there on chinese social media, for example, there were some rumors circulating that eth 2.

would be delayed another year. This was based on some story on wechat. Now, when asked about this in a popular ethereum, wechat group vitalik said in chinese that he didn’t say that and for those of you who didn’t know yes, vitalik speaks chinese having taught himself a few years back, because that’s what geniuses do right, i’ll upload this interview, He did in chinese from about three years ago, if you want to hear him in action, okay, so this then begs the very important question when merge. Well, i happen to think that it’s likely going to be in q2 of this year and if that does indeed come to pass, what exactly could this mean for the price of eth well, putting aside sentiment and speculation for the moment, it’s important to look at the Economics of the merge and what it does to eath demand and supply that old chestnut. Firstly, there’s the question of what it will do to all that: eth, that’s been locked up once the merge has happened.

Could all those who’ve had their east locked up for years? Finally, be able to withdraw and hence sell it. Well, not quite that’s because there will be a limit on the exit rate of the validators. This will be done in order to make sure that there’s not too much of a rapid change in the validator set. So what this means is that you only have a max of four validators, unlocking their eth every epoch, which is every 6 4 minutes now i won’t go into all the calculations here and i’ll link to this handy, reddit post.

That does it for us, but basically based on these exit rates and a few assumptions around the amount they are unstaking. This will mean about 28 800, each hitting the market per day now, assuming a trading volume of 10 million each per day and a circulating supply of 116 million slightly more now. That would imply the following: only 0.29 percent of current trading volume hitting market less than 0.02 percent of circulating supply hitting the market.

Now that doesn’t sound like a market-crashing amount of eth that will be unlocked. Moreover, this makes the assumption that all validators will want to exit. There could be an equally strong number of institutions, whales, miners and other market participants who were eager to stake, but only once the merge went through, they may want to join the validated queue. So it’s entirely possible that the amount of heath being locked to stake could exceed the amount that is being withdrawn beyond this, though, there’s also some research that has looked at the economics of it post-merge. Here we have a recent report from coinbase institutional.

It basically takes a look at what eth2 could mean for both ethereum and other layer ones in the ecosystem. Now the main section i want to focus on here is the one that talks about the merge monetary policy. What it says is that the merge could lead to efficiency gains as more eth will end up being staked than is being created. Moreover, it makes the point that miners are, of course, forced sellers they have to sell in order to meet expenses to pay for the mining, rigs and electricity. However, running a validator is much much cheaper and replacing miners with fewer validators could reduce that eth issuance by up to 90 percent.

The report claims it also estimates that this will lead to a fall of between 30 and 50 percent in the amount of eth. That’S being sent to the exchanges now, of course, the less east hitting exchanges, the less cell pressure to impact on the price. Now this is pretty bullish for me, but of course it doesn’t change the fact that the merge won’t drastically improve user experience. This is something that the researchers also point out, however, in the interim and beyond one of the best solutions for user adoption of ethereum is, of course, those layer. 2 protocols, the ethereum layer, 2 world, is moving, so damn fast that it’s sometimes hard to keep track.

Optimism, arbitrary polygon, starkware loopering, to name but a few all of these solutions using roll-up technology such as zk, roll-ups or optimistic roll-ups. Now there isn’t time to go into the nitty-gritty of the tech here, but feel free to watch my video on ethereum scaling. I also show you there how to use those layer 2 solutions, so it’s definitely worth coming back to later i’ll leave a link in the description for you. The point is that there is an insane amount of adoption in the layer 2 space. Nearly all dapps are now deploying layer, 2 solutions and the tvl total value locked in these protocols is reaching record-breaking levels.

For example, according to the website, l2 beat the tvl in all of layer. 2 is now standing at 6.36 billion dollars. This is up from a little over 100 million dollars only a year ago. Some of these layer, 2 solutions provide a user experience in terms of fees and speeds that is even challenging the status of large, centralized exchanges.

For example, last year at the peak of dex trading, the volume traded on dydx’s layer 2 protocol exceeded that of coinbase. For a day, it’s crazy right now. According to that aforementioned coinbase institutional report, these layer, twos, could be the deciding factor of whether any eth killers will be killed. First. Moreover, there’s a common misconception that these layer twos could become obsolete when the eth 2.

upgrade is complete. On the contrary, sharding of the main ethereum chain will compound their scalability. It will allow the roll-up solutions to take full advantage of more ethereum block space. To quote the researchers quote, this would be crucial for allowing the network to potentially scale to billions of users in the long run, processing tens of thousands of transactions. Quite simply, these layer, two solutions are core to ethereum’s future.

Take it from tim, okay. This is all great, but why should this impact the price of eth? Well, let’s not forget that, in order to enter many of these roll-up solutions, you have to lock up eth. This is eth, that’s been taken off the market and will only ever come back once users exit from the bridging smart contract, the larger that tvl, the less ether, could be hitting the exchanges beyond this, though, the more daps and users on layer, 2 platforms right now, The more that are likely to eventually use the eth main chain when that full scaling capability is released. It’S a lot easier to port over a dap that was built on arbitrarum to ethereum, for example, than it is to move one over from solana or avalanche.

The point is infrastructure built on eth layer. Twos is positive for ethereum in the words of starkware ceo uri kolodny quote today, ethereum could be viewed as manhattan in the middle of the 17th century. Farms and manufacturers are all producing there. What we are doing is we are the skyscraper technology that uses the same footprint and now serves many many more people. We think this can be built to any height, that’s needed!

Imagine if you had bought a plot of manhattan land in the 17th century. So now that you’ve had your hit of hopium, i want to quickly shift gears to another, potentially strong catalyst, driving investment into eth post, merge and that’s esg. For those who don’t know, esg stands for environmental, social and governance. It’S the new vogue in institutional, investing where large money managers only invest in those companies, assets or ventures that are seen as forwarding these goals gone are the days when capitalists main goal was roi. Now it’s all about changing the world.

Am i right jokes aside, esg investing is a powerful force driven by some of the largest money managers on wall street folks like larry fink, the ceo of blackrock, the largest fund of them all esg. Investing is a massive threat to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, that rely on so-called environmentally harmful proof-of-work mining. Now i talked about this in much greater detail in my video on the esg threat to crypto, and you can watch that by hitting that link in the top right now, irrespective of whether you think this environment fudd is justified, you cannot deny that it’s the prevailing Narrative from mainstream news articles to political talking points and more, in fact, the fud was so strong that tesla stopped accepting bitcoin payments last year on account of it. Now this is not going to go away anytime soon, and this means that there will be a natural cap on the amount of institutional capital which will flow into proof-of-work cryptocurrencies. However, it’s a completely different kettle of fish when it comes to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies.

That’S because the energy costs of running a validator are negligible. In fact, it’s almost irrelevant because all you’re using is a standard server, a server, that’s already optimized for energy use sitting in a data center and, unlike with proof-of-work mining, you don’t need to use exponentially more energy in order to maintain that hash rate over time. Once ethereum transitions to proof of stake on the merge, it will be seen as a way more environmentally friendly option. One. That’S a lot more palatable for institutional investors who are dying to jump into crypto, but are worried about the shade they’ll get if they invested.

In proof of work coins now, may i remind you that blackrock has over 9 4 trillion dollars under management and nearly all of those asset managers that make up the top aum have their own esg mandates and funds, or how about the fact that so many companies on the s p 500 now have to factor esg into their corporate strategies. If they are going to consider using decentralized tech in their operations or payments, they will no doubt turn to those cleaner options and post merge. Eth 2.0 is the clean green money, making machine dominating the web3 scene and speaking of which you have to check out my video on web3, which i’ll leave in the description for you. It’S well worth it anywho.

I know this bullish. Ethe 2.0 talk sounds all good, but we are still not there, and prices are currently pretty lackluster, so what’s happening right now. Is there reason to be bullish at the moment? Well, let’s examine what’s happening on chain ahead of that merge.

There are a number of things you can glean from on-chain statistics. One of the most important of these is what other holders are doing and what they’re holding starting off with perhaps one of my favorites, and that is the balance of eth in exchange wallets. The headline says it all and it basically shows the total amount of eth that is now sitting on these exchanges. As you can see, this is near all-time lows. This is bullish because it shows that those who are currently selling their eth make up an increasingly smaller proportion of the general market.

The current price of eth is the value that is determined by a small subset of all eth-hoddlers. This is further confirmed by the low amount of exchange deposits taking place. People are not sending their eth2 exchanges and hence they are not planning to sell okay, so that’s exchange wallets, but what are the whales doing? Well, according to some data from sentiment, the top 10 non-exchange addresses now hold over 25 million eth. You can even see the inverse relationship we have here with the top exchange balances.

It’S pretty stark, so it’s quite clear that the big boys are stacking eth. But what about other market participants how about miners? Surely they also have a unique perspective on where they think eath is going well? According to that coinbase institutional report that i talked about earlier, they are stacking as well. Ever since eip1559 went live, the net eth flows into minor wallets have mostly been positive.

If you look at the eight months that preceded that flows were broadly flat, i.e inflows met outflows. Perhaps it could be a situation where these miners are waiting until the merge in order to switch off their machines and move over as a validator. It will allow them to continue their operations securing the network, albeit without those costly mining rigs. If miners do start to move over, then these could be the flows that counteract any of those validators who are looking to withdraw their stake.

Teeth less eath on the market of course means less eath available for sale. So, based on these on-chain statistics, i can’t help but feel that those in the know know oh and by the way. If you want to know all about on-chain analysis, then i’m sure there are videos out there that can help you with that. That’S it for most of my analysis folks. However, i do want to share a few of my personal thoughts.

Firstly, i will say that i am currently disappointed in the performance of eth so far this year, then again, it’s not an eth only issue. The entire crypto market has been dragged through the mud together with the rest of the financial markets, thanks jerome, but it’s important to be able to separate out fundamental value from price. Yes, eth 2.0 has been a whipping boy for some time. People are growing impatient as to the progress.

This is understandable, but it’s equally important to appreciate just how much work is being done behind the scenes. Headlines and click bait don’t reflect the code commits, moreover, in the interim there’s a plethora of layer, 2 scaling solutions that are building a great deal of value on the ethereum network, value for their own blockchains and value for the base chain. Value. That’S likely to exponentially multiply when sharding is complete investors, whales and miners are stacking and once eth transitions to a much cleaner, proof-of-stake consensus. This could provide the impetus for an ocean of capital to flood in now.

Having said all of this, it’s as important as ever to highlight that there are risks. The merge is the biggest upgrade that ethereum has been through. Yes, it’s been rigorously tested, but when you have an upgrade that impacts 374 billion dollars of value, the stakes are incredibly high. Moreover, there are no guarantees that the merge goes through before this market cycle comes to an end. Eth 2 0 delays are commonplace and jerome is lifting those interest rates.

The taper tantrum is underway and, of course, we cannot be oblivious to the threat of other incredibly strong layer, 1 blockchains avalanche solana, phantom terra and cardano all are competing for a price of that eath pie. I hold some of those as well as a hedge for my eighth position, but of course there’s a reason why that eighth position is the largest in my portfolio, and there is a reason i bought eth in the dip a few weeks ago. It’S my judgment call based on all the information i’ve just presented. Now you have to make that judgment call for yourself. That’S it for the video chaps and chappets i’m keen to have some of your feedback, though, when do you think the merge is likely to happen?

Do you have any thoughts on my analysis, fire those comments down below also while you’re down there? I have something extra special for you. What chart it’s me again, goldie, don’t laugh, go on, don’t he giving it all the blah blah blah right any road. If you want to see more of good old guy, then never butchers at his dedicated socials page down there yeah it’s got his telegram insider channel where he gives it large, with daily market analysis twitter with all the latest. You know twitter stuff, instagram for photos and that and tick tock with behind the scenes malarkey and that macy bird four.

Finally there’s his weekly newsletter, what’s full of crypto tips and you can have a gander at his personal portfolio there as well. Now i told him to jump on in a floaty baby new coin, but did he listen? Of course he didn’t silly sausage and if you want to grab yourself some coin bureau, clobber then jog on to the coin bureau, merch store and pick yourself up a dicky dirt, a kuala lumpar or a jade goodie. It’S up to you like and subscribe too or i’ll, send the boys around right. Let’S see a lot tata,

Source Link: DON’T MIIS – Ethereum: ETH Potential in 2022!!!

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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NO WAY IS THIS BITCOIN!!

Today, for the bitcoin price – and yes, the last days were absolutely crazy for bitcoin. In fact, i am here right now in some random thai street, but this doesn’t hold me back of making these videos especially right now, when there’s something unfolding in the charts, which is giving us a very clear direction as to where’s the bitcoin price going to go Here in the immediate short time, i want to talk about that, and this video is very important for you to understand. What’s going on right now, because we had this very crazy dumpy throughout the last few days, and of course people are asking me Chris is it over already? Are we going to bounce? Is the bear market starting?

Are we going to look out for much lower price targets? Well, i am telling you I did not predict that we are going to break the 40 000 us dollar levels. However, I did one thing almost two months ago. Let me show you, let me show you. I made a video about it, but let me show you this tweet here.

You can see it here. On the 11th of December 2021, i was actually posting bitcoin concerning similarities. I was showing the price right now at 48 400 us dollars, and i was showing you this textbook pattern was telling you bitcoin is between phase 27 and 28 and that potentially we are looking out here for a very bearish scenario for a worst-case scenario where bitcoin Is going here on the 28th to a very specific price target? This is a price target. I do want to elaborate on in this video.

Let me quickly go back here so make sure you are watching this video until the very end. And yes, i’m not saying i predicted this. What i’m saying, though, is i told you so what i’m saying, though, is i gave you two scenarios and i told you: when a happens, we do a. When b happens, we do b b, unfortunately happened, we went lower and now the question is: what is the price target? Let’s talk about that?

Let’s go straight into the charts and what you can see. Bitcoin broke, not only sorry for the background noises. Of course, if i’m making a video here directly from the streets in Thailand, we have to expect some background noises coming in and we can see here on the daily canvas for bitcoin actually bitcoin broke. This pattern to the downside. Bitcoin also broke the horizontal support towards the downside and well now i can already tell you one thing, and this is where it gets interesting number one: the measured move price target of this breakdown.

Let me quickly zoom in here this is not new. This is something i talked about already in the last two videos right is approximately among the i drew it sloppy here. 30, 000 us dollars to 31 000 us dollar areas for bitcoin, but this is the thing this is where we are getting some interesting conference and with all the concerning similarities. What i was posting like more than a month ago, like one and a half month ago, approximately at 48 400 us dollars, i was predicting. I was telling you guys.

If this is the case, we are between phase 26 27 in this bounce and the last big dump is actually imminent. According in accordance to that pattern – and here you can see, phase 28 should bring us all the way back to 10 to the previous low of the previous dump after the three pump peaks before the domed house in this specific chart pattern. So now let’s go back into the charts and like let’s actually see what would that price target be. Let me actually put a horizontal line to that. If this would be the case, then you can see.

We have perfect confluence coming in here once again, at approximately 30 000 us dollars, uh approximately actually, the um, the average buying price from the one and only michael sailor who was buying billions of us dollars worth of bitcoin, whose average purchasing price is right. Now, at 30 000 us dollars. This is not necessarily what i’m looking out for, but this is my new worst case scenario. Yes, i was thinking 40 000. We are going to hold, but i was also telling you the moment we are breaking it.

The moment we are having at least two consecutive weekly closes below the ema ribbon. This is when i’m gon na flip bearish. Well, as you can see, it unfortunately unfolded. We unfortunately went lower here and now you know my worst case scenario for vikka. I would like to know what you think about that, of course uh.

Let me quickly show you. This was the video here just a little bit more than a month ago, 110 000. Views on that one. Thank you so much for that. Of course, you will find a link down below if you want to trade, it be careful, be an experienced trader.

10 000 u.s dollar bonus for free here in the pin comment, if you click the buy button, click register deposit takes a minute. You have 4 100 u.s dollars in free bonuses on this account. Let me quickly show you here and guys, like the video, if you want more of these videos here on the sidelines, this looks crazy man.

I really want to spread some hope. Hopefully, thanks for changing for the better again um – it’s not a ghost town anymore, here, really amazing to see that i’m very happy because um some things which were happening. The last two two years were hitting some people in thailand very hard and it’s nice to see that tourism is working out again here, um yeah, you know guys. I went to thailand and i was currently for a few days now, i’m finally free anyways guys. Thank you so much for watching.

We are going to see each other very soon at the next one encrypted, as always guys, as always bye-bye

Source Link: NO WAY IS THIS BITCOIN!!

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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$100 MILLION – MY LOSSES IN CRYPTO!!!!!

Hello guys and welcome to the moon, my name is carl and I’m going to bring you this cryptocurrency video. We are going to take a look at the bitcoin price right now. Everyone wants to know where we are headed. So, let’s just take a look at the obvious: first, we have a falling wedge just like we had a falling wedge right. There we broke down below this green box.

We also had this head and shoulders that i talked about um a couple of weeks ago. Let me show you real quick, so we have like this right. Let me make that line another color. Let’s make it a yellow like that, and that’s what we can see, I’m just going to turn off the sound of my beautiful phone. So the question is, of course, are we going to continue to go down here um?

I am going to show you the target out of the head and shoulders just because I’m a technical analyst, it would make sense if I did some technical analysis on this target. So basically, this head and shoulders has a target of approximately 20 000. Now everyone will be wondering: are we going to go all the way down to 20 000

First of all, we have to understand that it is possible. Of course, anything is possible. Is it probable?

In my opinion, i don’t think it’s very probable. What’s more probable is that we may actually come down to retest 30 000. Maybe we get a small bounce before here, we’re gonna go up to 38k and then we go down, but eventually, i think maybe we’re going down to 30k retesting that – and hopefully we get a big bounce after that. This is definitely a possible scenario. Let’S bring out the daily ema ribbon, uh like this, and then we can see that bitcoin is clearly below the ribbon.

Of course, as you can see, and as long as we blow the ribbon, we have big resistance above us, let’s go to the weekly and i’m gon na have to tell you guys that the weekly is looking not so good anymore. We have been looking at the weekly saying that we’re above here we’re above the support but yeah right now we’re below support. We got a confirmed candid candle, close below the weekly ema ribbon and right now we have a huge red candle. We have 24 hours right now. Tomorrow is monday.

We have 24 hours for bitcoin to pump back 20 above 41k. If we see that miracle happen, then we’re all fine, but actually i would say that the likelihood of that happening is not very high at all and if you look at the the the the sheer amount of drop we’ve seen here here, i have to tell you Guys that, obviously i’m in the same boat, like all of you, i also lost a bunch of money here on paper. Obviously, it’s not realized losses because i don’t sell my bitcoin ethereum or cast or whatever i don’t sell down here. That’S for sure – and i mean if you feel bad for for losing – i don’t know 20 30k here in the past 24 hours i’ll tell you that it’s possible that i lost something like i don’t know – 100 million here so um. I would say this guys: it’s not a loss unless you realize the loss.

Am i gon na sell here and realize a hundred million dollar loss? No, i am holding my bitcoin, i’m holding my ethereum, i’m holding basically all of my crypto uh, the only big purchase. I did here was uh my bugatti remember right here at oh wait. This is bitcoin uh, let’s go here. This is ethereum because i bought my my car with ethereum and ethereum was approximately four thousand dollars and then with the ethereum price tanked.

So that’s the only theorem i used for any kind of purchase, but but yeah, that’s that’s! That’S that i’ve. Definitely i’m down a a significant amount of money, but all of us are. We are all in the same boat when it comes to to these swings. Remember also back here, a huge correction.

I lost a bunch of money there as well, but i didn’t sell and we went all the way up here – we’re down right now as well. I’M not selling we’re gon na go back up very very soon. I think so makes no sense for me to start selling here, but many people are asking why we’re correcting. Yesterday i talked about russia and sec, but also of course, if you look at the equity markets, you will see that basically, the whole stock market crashed and i think, bitcoin crashed because of the stock market. It seems like that’s probably the most likely um scenario and just look at jeff bezos.

He probably lost billions yesterday, so my 100 million losses, nothing compared to jeff, bezos and elon musk, and all these people like, if just one percent, dropping their stock and they make or they lose billions. I think so is this a bear market now? Well, actually, yes, on the weekly and daily, we now have a bear market technically, in my opinion, um. So what am i going to do? Well, i have made over 350 investments in different crypto startups recently and obviously in a bear market.

My investments are not going to perform very well, but if we see a bull market in the next six months, then they’re gon na perform very well. I am still going to keep investing in crypto because, like i said before, this is a long-term thing. It’S not like, i don’t have a one month or six month mindset. I have a four year five year mindset in even 20 years, look at amazon, google, microsoft. It doesn’t matter what you make in the next one year over the next 20 30 years.

People made crazy money by investing in in those internet companies, so yeah, i’m not worried at all when it comes to that make sure to go down below this video and click my buy bit link if you want to get a 4 000 sign up bonus. Just click the link sign up takes 20 seconds, and then you can start trading, and this is only for experienced traders, and you also have my buy bits tutorial right there. If you want to learn even more about the buy bit exchange and don’t forget to subscribe guys and leave a thumbs up down below, thank you for watching. May the gains be with you by the dip hold for the long term and make sure to click. This video right there right now and i will see you guys over there – bye

Source Link: $100 MILLION – MY LOSSES IN CRYPTO!!!!!

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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Bitcoin CRASH (Top 3 Ways To Survive Crypto BEAR Market in 2022)

Welcome to bit boy crypto, my name is ben. My mission is to empower you to find financial freedom through crypto assets. If that sounds good hit that subscribe button guys, it is rough out there first uh one of these videos i made here in a few days and the market is rough. There’s really no, if ands or buts, about that at this point, it’s time to have some realistic, honest conversations about where we are. You know it was very interesting.

I was uh watching a or I was checking out twitter the other day, and i i saw where uh lark, davis, krypto lark, as we all know him. From a long time ago, uh made a tweet about bitcoin going to 100 000 in 2022, and you would have thought that he said everyone’s mother is going to hell. Like the comments on that, tweet were insane everybody saying that you know he was basically an idiot and how dumb that is guys. It’S definitely possible, but it’s very improbable. I think that’s where we have to understand where we’re at right now.

It is still possible that we are not going to go through a multi-year bear market. It is still possible that uh we will get a rebound at some point and head back in the in the direction that we want to go by the end of this year. But i i have to be honest with you at this point i would say all that is highly improbable, that didn’t really do a lot to fix that glare. Did it uh it’s highly improbable at this point, guys um, look. We told people for years and years and years that we were going to see the top of the market at the end of September last year in 2021 i said bitcoin would top out sometime at the end of September, beginning of October and then the alt coins.

You know would basically top out the bull run will be over sometime between Halloween and uh thanksgiving. We got sidetracked looking for specific numbers waiting for a hundred thousand dollars a lot of influence on. You know what we thought was gonna happen in the market, but in reality we just would have stuck to our gut and what we said over a long period of time. We we might have nailed it. You know that, that’s the honest truth, we we might have nailed the timing for when crypto topped out – and i think a lot of us just were very surprised that when we finally got that momentum back that it didn’t, you know we didn’t have that momentum enough To carry us at least up to you, know, 80 to 100 000.

It was surprising, but that’s the thing about this market. It surprises you when everybody thinks it’s going one way it goes the other way, and you know if you’re looking for some hopium that maybe we’re going to get another rally by the end of this year and we’re not heading into the multi-year bear market. I mean, I think that is that that’s your go-to here, because everyone now believes that we’re not getting to a hundred thousand. Everyone believes that we are headed to a long bear market and that we saw the top. So you know, maybe we won’t see that, but let’s be realistic about where we’re at guys, where we’re at right now is once we go down to 29 000, if we go below 29 000, we are now in a long-term downtrend.

Is at this point on the weekly we are still technically on an uptrend for the last several years, the same thing on the monthly still on an uptrend right now it doesn’t look good, but until we make new lows you know you can’t really say that we’re On a downtrend, so that’s really. The key number to watch is 29 000, and i think that you know, like i said before, we just have to be realistic. If you’re asking me what my opinion is right now on what i believe is going to occur most likely, i think we are going to go into a multi-year bear market. I mean, i think, that’s where we’re at right now. I think we topped out.

We didn’t get to the numbers, we all believed we would get to, but remember this 70 of people, 70 of people who are in crypto, came in the year 2021.

If you came in during the year of 2021, if you did not take profits along the way you are back to even or you are actually in fact down at this point, i’m sure a lot of people can relate to that. That’S why you’re going to see a lot of anger and that’s what you see in bear markets. You see anger, you see hatred you see jealousy, you see, regret you. You see a lot of those things um.

You know that you know really define the bear market and the psychology that is technical analysis, and it is you know, a market in general and we’re going to continue to see that. So you know there are three ways that you can still crush it in a bear market. There are three ways that you can survive. I guess survives a better word, you’re, probably not going to crush it. People don’t really become millionaires during the bear market.

They make. The moves that eventually propel them to being millionaires in a bear market, but for all those people that came in during that time and now you’re back to even or whatever it’s okay like this is we were all there. I i was there actually twice right, but now because i was patient, that’s the first thing you have to do to survive a bear market. You have to be patient. You have to understand that this is not a quick process.

I say it all the time. It’S very easy to make money in crypto. It is very hard to make money in crypto day to day, because this is a long game and the excitement and the thrill of the price is going up when people come into the market. They’Re super excited and then when the prices are going down, they can’t really handle it because they were really prepared, even though we said it, you got to be here for four years. We said it over and over and over again they still wanted the quick hit in the bear market.

Your chances for the quick hit are virtually gone and it is time for you to be patient, buckle in and get ready, because this is a long game. Now. It’S still a much less long game than you know becoming rich through other types of investments or other markets, but it is still a long game. You have to be patient number two. You have to be realistic.

I i think that is something that people really struggle with in a bear market. Is you will constantly hear stories of bitcoin going to 100 000 bitcoin going to 200 000 bitcoin, you know or ethereum is, is gon na have a massive comeback and it’s gon na have a massive rally. You’Re gon na hear this stuff over and over and over again, because you know people want you to still pay attention and to keep up with crypto uh. We saw it all. Through 2018 people were talking about a 200 300 000 bitcoin.

All the way until bitcoin was at three thousand dollars there were people telling you. The bitcoin was going down three thousand dollars and you wouldn’t listen whatever the lowest price point you hear people talking about uh for bitcoin be realistic, there’s a chance. It can go down there, there’s a chance. Bitcoin can go to nine thousand dollars. There’S a chance.

The bitcoin can go down to fifteen thousand dollars. I i don’t i personally my number i i would say probably seventeen to twenty thousand dollars is where i would guess we would probably bottom out at. I just think, there’s too much buying pressure for it to go lower than that um. So i would be looking for 17 to 20, which would be like a 70 down draw from the top, i believe, 70 to 80 percent, that that seems to line up with with history compared to um. You know the diminished return that we got during this bull market and things like that.

So i think you have to be realistic wherever you think crypto can go, uh think lower. It can probably go lower than that. So you have to take an honest account of where we’re at in the market at all times and understand that it could go lower every time, bitcoin pumps that doesn’t mean the market’s about to turn around you have to keep that in mind. Is it possible? Yes, is it likely?

No at this point, the answer is no uh. The third thing that you can do to survive a bear market and the number one thing that is going to set you apart is pay attention and accumulate, pay attention and accumulate. That doesn’t mean that right now is the best price point to start buying in at. If you want a dollar cost average into different things, like certainly dollar cost average. From this point uh you know because there is a chance – maybe you know maybe, as long as we don’t go below 29k, we can see a revival of the bitcoin price.

You know maybe right now: dollar cost averaging makes sense, but you’re going to see stuff in much better buys. When you see the price of certain all coins down 70 man. It certainly is a tasty opportunity, but remember most coins in 2018 went down 97 97. So when you look at 70 versus 97 percent, suddenly that 70 percent doesn’t look is good. You have to pay attention.

You have to know when you know things bottom out and you have to keep watching crypto videos. I mean this is something that separated people that made it and that stayed in the space from people that did not is people that left they stopped paying attention they stopped accumulating. We told people to accumulate cardano at five cents forever. We told people to accumulate uh aetherium at a hundred two hundred dollars forever, and some people listen and those people are are well off. The people who are not angry today are the people that were buying in since 2020 and before because it doesn’t matter where bitcoin goes you’re still massively in profit, um still massively in profit.

If you bought bitcoin uh during 2020,

And if you bought cardano in 2019, you could care less. If it goes back under a dollar means nothing to you. You’Ve made so much money, it’s insane, so you have to pay attention. You have to pick those coins. Do you think you’re winners, though projects like sandbox crypto.

om, um projects that were really moving towards the end of this market that you missed out on? You now have an opportunity to go back in and accumulate these at really low prices. What are good price points for these to start accumulating out in a bear market that that’s anybody’s guess it once again is dependent on where bitcoin goes, but guys we’re gon na have a lot of these talks. You know over the next few weeks, uh about you really need to make a decision like you need to make a decision. Are you in this or the quick hit, because if so you’re going to lose, you might as well go now don’t waste your time anymore, or are you willing to do whatever it takes to change your life, whatever it takes to find financial freedom?

Because let me tell you, i went through years of pain building this channel with no one watching knowing caring about crypto everyone telling me. I was crazy. Everyone telling me, i missed it. Everyone telling me! I was wrong years of that and i can tell you they were all worth it, but in the moment it does not feel good.

All right guys. That is all i got for today, be blessed, be boy out.

via Bitcoin CRASH (Top 3 Ways To Survive Crypto BEAR Market in 2022)

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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My $20,000,000 Market Bet.

This is a video you’re going to want to watch in its entirety, or else you’ll end up like the Karen whiners, who misrepresent my actions or what i believe is going on in the market. Now you have to know these two things, though, in order to keep going. The two things you have to know is that you’re always going to get radical transparency from me on this channel. As to what i believe is going on in the market, I will tell you everything about what i believe is going on in the market. If I’m shorting the market, i will tell you that i can’t make a video every time i fart and buy or trade a stock.

I do that in the stocks and psychology of money course down below and links. You know that, but otherwise my overall moves in the market. You know everything that i’m doing you know when i open a short. You know when i close a short: you know what i’m making a bet on the market or i’m not making a bet on the market and number two. If i say i’m going to do something, i’m going to do it so, for example, if i say i’m going to huddle amc for a year, i am going to do that, i’m not going to just say it and then a month later change my sentiment and Sell it and just not tell you about it, never bring it up again.

That happens. That’s not me, though, now something that i do may not align with your strategy. It may not align with your hopes and desires, but ultimately hope is not a strategy. The truth, a plan and conviction, is what creates the strategy and that’s what you’re going to get in this video now, let’s get into this video with starts with a quick message from stream yard and the importance of history folks, this video is brought to you by Streamyard, if you want professional, live streaming software, it’s so easy to get on your browser, whether it’s on your phone or on a computer. All you have to do is go to medkevin.

om stream yard and you can sign up for stream yard sign up for what is a phenomenal way of handling meetings, throwing comments up on screen and getting live broadcasts synced and multi-broadcast across facebook, youtube, twitter and other platforms Check them out in the link down below alright folks, let’s get started the onsen, the onset rather of world war, one sparked a boom for farming. Now, why are we talking about world war? One because we’re going to find similarities? Commodity prices, skyrocketed the price of wheat, hogs milk and corn doubled more than doubled, leading to rampant agricultural inflation thanks to substantial shortages, expecting the boom to continue. Farmers took on massive amounts of debt to expand their operations, the average price of land.

Thanks to all this new debt doubled in america, so massive inflation led to a massive real estate boom commodity prices, more than doubling, which ultimately led to a massive production boom and the short term was great. High prices. High profits, however, just like all pain comes to an end. Euphoria also comes to an end. We ended up over producing leading to an oversupply of agricultural resources.

Guess what happened next, since farmers were now under heavy debt burdens for expanding their businesses at the top of the business cycle, they had to drop their prices to stay competitive, to sell any of their products and ultimately to service their debts. As a result, agricultural prices plummeted and within 10 years, 60 out of every 1 000 farmers went bankrupt. That was just the start of the pain, though, because that’s only six percent, but the climax came with the great depression and it took another 10 years for the agricultural economy to fully recover from its pain. The great depression is often marked by black tuesday, which was october 29 1929. But what we generally don’t talk about is what led up to black tuesday the stock market experienced something that it hadn’t been used to.

It was speculation by hobbyists on stocks trading stocks became a hobby. Individuals began buying stocks solely in anticipation that price would go up. These were individuals who didn’t know anything about fundamental analysis or understanding. The true present value of a business fundamentals went out the winding, which i hate to say, sounds really familiar, but what’s worse, number two people took on massive margin debt, even though only three percent of individuals invested in stocks in 1929, one-third of all wealth in america Was concentrated in the top one-half of one percent, and a lot of this was propped up by debt financed with cheap rates and a blowing up stock market. But when stocks began losing value in 1929, especially around the time of black tuesday and fundamentals.

Finally, returned to the question, potentially even less so because people are now fearful of the markets. What came next a true trickle down economics? Consumers became fearful and stopped spending. They started hoarding cash businesses became fearful. They stopped hiring, stopped, investing and stopped spending as much.

Of course, things don’t go to zero. Capex plummeted, this, along with high debt and an overproduction of supply in many industries, even beyond agriculture, led to a massive nasty crash that took america five years to recover from it wasn’t by the dip and were good in five weeks. It wasn’t by the dip and were good in five months. It was five years see this sort of insane. Speculation has happened as well in 2000, with the internet bubble, somebody who bought in 2000 needed to wait about 14 years just to break even on prices.

They paid that means they had to ride through the 2008 recession, just to end up getting to the other side of the 2008 recession to break even on a purchase they made in 2, 000.

That’S 14 years of a zero percent return on average. Unfortunately, i can’t help but find some massive similarities to these prior markets. To today we have massive chip and shipping induced inflation, accelerated by complications arising out of societies dealing with covet in a different way or different ways. Look at china versus the united states, misinformation around masks and preventing covet, but also complete distrust in the fact that vaccines could be something that could help us and so far, they’re not doing a good job.

While some agricultural commodities are spiking now, commodities related to chips and metals and shipping have skyrocketed and businesses are expanding, their productive capacities with more and more cheap money, but that cheap money is coming to an end right now. What we’re seeing is prices and wage prices increasing and becoming so common in companies like chipotle, where they openly brag in their earnings, call about how they can charge customers more money, despite their input costs not actually rising, and then other companies who do have input costs Rising or bragging about how much as a percentage they can pass along to the consumers. This is called pricing power phenomenon that occurs when individuals have higher bank balances and the psychological mindset that prices and price increases are the norm. This is inflation, see inflation, isn’t just prices going up, it isn’t just the expansion of the money supply. It’S the psychological belief that it is okay to pay more money and, as we do, prices or companies take advantage of us as a result of these pricing powers.

The federal reserve now describes uh quote excessive valuations in the housing market and stock market, and that’s led by the fact that sellers are essentially the price makers. Companies uh, whether they’re sellers or companies are able to set prices and people are paying them. Now. The federal reserve is starting to try to rein in the madness by first increasing rates when the federal funds rate increases. It can have the effect of raising other interest rates, whether that’s margin, interest rates or just straight-up lending rates.

When rates rise, borrowers tend to reduce the amount of borrowing they do. This makes sense. Consumers borrow less money because it’s more expensive to borrow margin, debt or take out personal loans or home equity lines of credit interest rates go up when rates go up. Businesses suffer from the same aspect, but businesses also have the second factor that if consumers are borrowing less, then demand might decline. So businesses especially tend to borrow less money when rates rise.

This has the effect again of consumers reducing demand as financing costs increase, but businesses reduce investment as demand declines. This is kind of like and it’s much more complicated than this, but if you think of an analogy, it’s kind of like the federal reserve taking the foot off of the gas on a car, that’s driving way too fast on the highway 100 miles an hour or 120 miles an hour, let’s just say, and then slightly tapping on the brakes to get the car back to 80 miles an hour. The car is still going fast, we’re not in this slow down phase where we’re on the highway in stop and go traffic. That would be very bad if we slowed down that much, but we’re trying to get from 100 to 120 on this nitrous that somebody poured in the gas tank back down to a normal speed for the highways between 65 and 80.

See we were just driving too fast.

Unfortunately, driving a car is relatively easy. Driving a global economy is next to impossible, and that’s what the supposed a political body, which means not political body of the federal reserve, is tasked with they pretty much lead the global economy. Even though they’re just supposed to lead the american economy, since we are the largest economy by twofold, twice the economy, economic size and right of china, we lead the global economy, so we’re told to expect prices to fall when production meets demand, which is a known risk That, if demand plummets too rapidly, then we could end up in a deflationary spiral and ultimately a recession right. Of course, if we don’t tap the brakes, that is, the fed doesn’t tap the brakes. We might end up losing control and ending up in a hyper inflationary crash, and so this is where the federal reserve is really tasked with dealing with two extremes, i think the easiest way to picture this is a large balance, beam about eight feet tall and all Of us in america are standing under this balance.

Beam on top of the balance. Beam is a massive sheet of plywood and there are two weights on either side. And if this balance beam breaks and this plywood comes down, we’re all getting hurt or crushed in the markets and see the federal reserve is, is the one standing in the middle trying to balance uh this balancing beam on on a little pyramid and on each side Of the plywood is one the risk of a deflationary spiral slowing the market down too much to where we end up with a deflationary spiral. We’Re spending slow so much that we end up in a recession, because what is a recession? It’S two quarters of a gdp decline in a row: okay.

Well, if consumers stop spending so much that gdp turns negative, even slightly negative for two quarters you’re in a recession you’re at a technical recession, the same would be true on the opposite end. If we don’t control, prices and prices continue to explode the way they have been, and we end up with hyperinflation that leads the federal reserve to have to raise rates so substantially that then we crush demand through high interest rates, where borrowing becomes almost impossible, because rates Are so high demand gets crushed and we go into recession right. Both of these options are bad. I like to call them the two extremes, and so what we’re really all hoping for right now is we’re all standing under this balancing beam. Looking at jerome powell and the finesseness of the federal reserve to keep this balancing beam in order, unfortunately, market psychology has changed and we’ve lost some respect for jerome powell’s ability to keep this balancing beam afloat, see after joe biden’s meetings with jerome powell, whether it was For jerome powell, keeping his jobs or not his job or not, jerome powell changed his mindset after his meetings with drum powell and became much more hawkish on controlling the economy, hawkishness that could potentially benefit joe biden.

Blaming politics, though here doesn’t really matter. It doesn’t really matter what changed in jerome paul’s world. What matters most is that markets have, to some degree lost faith in jerome powell’s ability to protect us, and this could be because of his u-turn on transitory. It could be because of a sudden u-turn. After meeting with joe biden, which implies that there’s more politics here at play than uh the reality of wanting to provide factual information, but again it doesn’t really matter what matters most.

It doesn’t matter why people have lost faith. What matters is that people have lost some degree of faith, and this loss of faith has led to the rampant, fear-building speculation that will likely dampen any semblance of good news that this market expects and has been the reason every day it seems like on certain stocks. We’Re hitting all-time new lows and we’re at least 52-week new lows, and it feels like any rally that we have is really convictionless. Let me give you an example: jerome powell has made it clear that he does not expect to raise rates until the taper is complete. However, now because market participants uh do not believe jerome powell as much, they are speculating that jerome powell is going to rug, pull us on january 25th, which is just in a few days with a surprise rate hike.

Previously. The first rate hike from the federal reserve was expected on march 16th, which speaking of march 16th jerome powell and the federal reserve and their summary of economic projections project a 25 basis. Point increase. That’S a quarter of one percent, unfortunately, now again because market participants don’t really believe the fed they’re speculating that the fed may raise rates by 50 basis, points which is twice as much on march 16th, again doubting the federal reserve, which frankly is understandable but hey things – Are different now, right i mean we’ve started to get some positive catalysts right i mean like services and manufacturing pmi showed some hope on inflation, that we should be optimistic on inflation, inflecting down right and i mean j-power – wouldn’t want to crash the market right. That may be true, but folks, one of the most important things to consider is the psychology in investing – and this is what i talk about in my course on stocks on the psychology of money, where i walk you through tactics for different markets.

I don’t stick my head in the sand and maintain the same tactic over and over when markets change. I provide you rationale for that change and i provide actions that could help protect our portfolios in those times no guarantees, of course, but here’s the thing stock valuations are built on three things and we’re going to talk about is this time really different stock valuations are Built on three things: number one is fundamentals. Number two is technical trends and number three is momentum. You can kind of layer these together and layer. Three momentum can vary substantially based on individual sentiments and individuals, fears.

So, for example, if the valuation of a stock is the sum of these three different levels and then, when you add up this sort of piece of paper here, you get the valuation of stock uh and let’s say the valuation is right here: it’s x at the Top, which means we’ve gone through the fundamental layer, the technical layer and the momentum layer, then what happens when momentum potentially turns negative and we potentially see stocks trading below their fundamental, fair value? Well, those are really good by the dip opportunities right. But the point is that momentum alone could end up dragging all of these substantially negative and momentum is driven by fear people’s belief in the market. Okay. Well, let’s now compare to a time when we had a shift of psychology similar to what we’re seeing right now, now we’re seeing a shift in psychology in how much we believe the federal reserve.

Well, in 1987, we also had a shift in psychology folks trusted the fed less and, as a result, became fearful in fact consider this in a well popularized on youtube 1987 news report. The news anchor says: quote: investors previously saw the economy with a glass half full. Now they see it with a glass half empty. The same is happening in 2022.

Seventy percent of individuals are unhappy with the state of our economy and believe that inflation is out of control and likely to stay out of control for some time.

In addition, in that same 1987 report, we were told that there were quote renewed fears of inflation with a decline in the dollar. We also had rising interest rates and a huge budget and foreign trade deficits to deal with, and we were then described as a nation quote, living beyond its means. Well, folks, what do we have today so far in 2022, the dollar is declined. We have massive inflation. We have fears that inflation is going to continue.

We have fears that interest rates are going to go up and we have substantial trade deficits, especially with china, and it’s fears that drive the market not generally actual catalysts. Now actual catalysts can put fears to rest. Consider in the 2020 election, the stock market sold off substantially prior to the election, because there was fear that the transition of power would be a disaster in america. It wasn’t until a few days after the election that the market rallied and took off and we also got approval on vaccines. But the market started recovering before vaccine approval came and that’s because the fear catalyst of the election went away.

But for the two three weeks before the actual election day, we had a lot of pain in the stock market. The 1987 news report showed us the same kind of psychology at play. We saw this happen in 2018 as well. In 2018, the housing market fell 12. In one month in may, to june, when interest rates jumped one percent in four weeks well, in the last four weeks, housing interest rates for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage are up 0 6, 60 of the way to one percent folks, history does not necessarily repeat itself, but it can often rhyme and the biggest issue we have now is sentiment.

Trending down, you could be the best fundamental analysis in the world, but if you’re buying zoom when you’re, not realizing that the market has changed its sentiment away from zoom, i don’t care how good of a company zoom is markets go down and take zoom down with It substantially so, where do we stand today? Well, drone pal’s meeting on the 25th of january three days before my birthday is when the federal reserve is expected to by some raise hikes. And if the federal reserve does raise hikes on the 25th, it will come as a shock and a u-turn to what the federal reserve said. I would expect indices to follow 4-5, but i don’t actually believe the federal reserve is going to rug pull us. This means the next catalyst will be q4 earnings, massive tech companies reporting and here’s what happens with earnings.

Everyone is excited about amazing q4 earnings, but i think individuals and investors and institutions are forgetting to some degree that nobody cares about q4 earnings. They could be great. You know what everybody really cares about: guidance, q, one guidance, that’s what stocks trade off what’s happening right now: apple tomtom, google mobility data down substantially because of omicron business is closing because they don’t have enough staff. Adele canceling, her concert four hours before it’s supposed. To begin because she can’t get enough employees to actually show up for work because of omicron is everybody’s calling out sick.

Do we actually think that q1 forecasts are going to be good in the midst of of omicron? I hope so i really hope so, but here’s the reality if forecasts are bad stocks will fall if earnings beat and forecasts are good despite omicron guess what signal that sends to the person holding up the board the federal reserve, what signal does it send to the Fed well, if earnings beat heavily and forecast beat heavily during omicron, it gives the fed more reason to raise rates, and that is going to increase fears not for jan 25th, but for march 16th. So in other words, good news is bad news. Bad news is bad news: if earnings miss the stock market, punishes companies just look at peloton or netflix. Even though peloton had some potential misinformation, we don’t really have to go deep on peloton right now.

It’S not q4 earnings that matter, it’s the q1 forecast and it even if they’re positive. It’S just going to increase fears about what the federal reserve is going to do to react. The federal reserve watches earnings, they watch what ceos say, because it is the best measure we have of what’s happening in the economy is what people are actually doing with their money. Now banks have recognized that consumer saving rates are back to pre-pandemic levels. It’S not ideal.

People, saving less money means that potentially they have less discretionary money to spend. Banks also do not expect consumer bank accounts to increase in size this year. Now, even though existing bank account sizes are larger than what they were in 2019 again, banks are not expecting those consumer accounts to increase, and the savings rate is down to what it used to be not anymore. The large savings rate that we had during the year of 2020

This all together leads to a decline in spending power. I expect that some of this will potentially be evidenced in q1 forecasts, but don’t just take the this opinion, for it take a look at how home loans, searches for home loans have behaved in the past five years.

They hit the lowest bottom in q4 that they had in the past five years, but it’s not just home loans. It was also auto loans. Take a look at auto loans. Now we know there are less auto loans available and and seasonally. There could be an issue here, but the housing market, while it feels like they’re short inventory, we’re actually still selling more homes.

It’S just homes are coming in the market and selling very quickly. So to see this, this double correlation here between lows that we haven’t seen. Seasonally over the last five years, something to pay attention to who knows again. Hopefully we get really positive q1 expectations for tech companies and other companies, but anyway margin debt in our country hit a high of 935 billion dollars in october. Remember we talked about in 1929 massive debts.

Fortunately, margin debt has fallen margin. Debt has fallen two percent in november and about one percent in december, but if we compare margin debt to january of 2020 right before the pandemic, we’re actually 66 more in margin now than we were. Then that means in just 23 months margin debt exploded, 349 billion dollars. Almost all of that was added since the summer of 2020.

And now, since many stocks are revisiting where they were selling in the summer of 2020, individuals who borrowed to invest in stocks at those levels could potentially start seeing their principal get eradicated and when people’s principle starts getting eradicated, people really start getting nervous.

Remember principle is what you contributed to the market, your gains, getting better eradicated or less painful than seeing your actual hard-earned money get eradicated. The same is true of cryptocurrencies. Most people began purchasing cryptocurrencies at the beginning of 2021.. Well, if we fall below those prices, we could see the same sort of fear now.

This means all of this together. The eyes and attention on jerome powell on january 25th and march 16th are gon na, be huge, so where’s, some good news, because so far this is all painful i mean so far. It sounds like the manifestation of our future is either more stock market declines or convictionless rallies that ultimately end up selling off, which is kind of what’s been happening. Institutions seem to be selling off stocks at the last two to four hours of the trading day. Every single day, potentially taking advantage of by the dipping retail investors and offloading their bags onto them.

But what do we think in terms of positive catalyst? There has to be some positive news right yeah. I personally think the earliest positive catalyst that we could get would be cpi data cpi data comes out on february 10th for january and on march 10th for february now. This is not a guarantee, but if we finally see an inflection point down in cpi it could cool the federal reserve and since everybody’s got their eyes on the federal reserve, maybe markets could finally start rotating to the upside. So february, 10th and march 10th are going to be important days now.

I don’t know that uh february 10th will be early enough for us to see any kind of inflection. So it’s more likely going to be march 10th that we see an inflection point down inflation, though that might not even happen the next catalyst after that uh. You know if the fed does try to assuage markets and settle markets down, because cpi is going down and they end up being less aggressive. The next catalyst after that would be the market seeing rate increases and then realizing that okay rate increases are not that bad. But what i i want you to consider is what history told us about when markets reacted in the micro in the short term to actions from the federal reserve.

Consider this – and this is why those fed dates are so important. On december 19th 2018 the market fell substantially when the federal reserve raised rates two and a half percent, or two two and a half percent, but the market bottomed two days later, so the fed raised rates and the market hit bottom two days later, and the rally Of 2019 began, this could have been because the federal reserve reduced their outlook for more rate hikes. At the end of 2018, the fed reduced their expectations for rate hikes to two hikes from three hikes for 2019 and the market traded that positively within two days. S, p and nasdaq had sold off 20 and the bottom of the market came when the biggest fear date, which in my opinion, is now either march 25th or sorry january, 25th or march 16th came and went consider march of 2020

The market bottomed on march 23rd, which was literally the day the federal reserve, announced unlimited bond buying, basically unlimited quantities of of lending and spending programs to make sure that businesses and companies would stay afloat. The market rotated up on these views.

It did stumble for about 10 days after this we hit a second bottom on april 3rd. It was higher than march 23rd, but the market really started taking off, so it took about 10 days of shock and the market took off when the federal reserve acted. The irony here is, these programs were barely used. They were a mere indication that the federal reserve was willing to stop at nothing to bail out the market. It was unlimited bailout money now get this.

In october of 2008, tarp was passed a 700 billion bailout program, but the market kept falling. It kept falling until q1 of 2009

What happened in q1 of 2009, in fact, specifically in february of 2009? Ah, the fed announced liquidity in february of 2009, with the following quote. The fed is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the term asset-backed securities loan facility, aka telf and the expansion could increase. The size of talf as much as one trillion dollars and could broaden eligible collateral to encompass other types of entities.

How crazy is that congress announces a massive bailout in october of 2008, but the market keeps dropping it’s when the fed finally comes out with a larger bailout in february of the market bottoms. These were the bernanke days, but folks nothing has changed. The fed suite talking us with money or lowering aggressiveness to move this market is what moves the market still. Don’T believe me how about this? When did the s p?

500. Bottom after the 2000.com crash, it was q2 of 2003. guess what else happened, then the fed? Finally, got rates down to one percent: they made their final decrease of rates to one percent in q1, uh in q2 of 2003.

and because the economy was still sluggish, personal spending was down in the fourth quarter. From the federal reserve’s january. Meeting of 2003 trade deficit was widening, blah blah blah the federal reserve, reduced rates became less aggressive and what happened the market rotated up so the reality here is folks, no matter what happens in our market over the next 60 days, everybody is looking at the fed. Everybody is looking at what the fed is doing with this big bouncing beam as such, i’m making an extended outsized bet that january 25th and march 16th are going to be critical catalyst days for our market and we’re going to hit peak fear before those dates. It’S possible that we’re hitting peak fear now, but i don’t believe that we’re necessarily hitting peak fear now, because everybody’s going to be paying attention to march 16th january 25th is kind of expected to be a nothing burger.

But who knows? Maybe powell will give us some indications for march 16th, which is why january 25th is so important now. I also believe that markets are relatively quick to respond to bad news from the fed and slow to respond, sometimes taking two to ten days to respond to good news from the fed. Well, in my opinion, we have three courses forward and we’ll talk about my bad. I believe we are teetering between two dangerous paths of recession and one neutral path.

I really do believe that that neutral path path has has a likelihood of happening that we’re not necessarily going to go into that uh hyper inflationary style recession or that deflationary style recession. This this kind of just like a quick little sketch picture of what i’m talking about. I wrote myself kind of a little bit there that i’m hoping we’re going to have the chill normalized, fed and disinflation disinflation means inflation going down, not necessarily going negative right. Disinflation is is what we’re looking for we’re hoping for that inflection point down right, and so, in my opinion, i think there are three paths for individuals: portfolios number one for most passive investors into index funds. In my opinion, the best answer here is probably and not financial advice for any of this, obviously but huddle and just buy the dip dollar cost average.

Your income cut spending, increase your contribution to the market, again dollar cost average and now could potentially be a time to do that. A second path could be selling uh to uh, go to cash as a hedge, so there’s path, two a sell and go to cash as a hedge path. Two b could be huddle, but by weekly puts as a way to hedge path. Two is all about hedging. Over path, two c, you could sell just enough to eliminate your margin and then path.

Three is do nothing, so you have these three overall paths, one just dca keep buying the dab path. Two is hedge and path. Three is do nothing path. Two is more of a traitor, mentality right and, quite frankly, sometimes doing nothing is best, which is path. Three, sometimes continuing to dollar cost average is also bad best.

It’S the passive way to invest the easiest thing to do. I think it’s the wisest thing to do now in this pa case, though i personally have chosen to trade uh these market catalysts. Now i could be entirely wrong. I hope i am, i hope, we’re at peak fear and we’ve hit the bottom of the market and uh. You know we rally like crazy.

I i don’t really think markets can rally on anything other than january 25th and march 16th, going substantially better than we believe. As i’ve described how the market tends to historically react now, i’ve sold 99.15 of my stocks and my entire crypto portfolio of the cash that i have right now. I am 5 56 short, the market so of the cash i have i’m 5.5 percent short at the market, with a put option on the market uh, and it’s a short-term one.

So i want to be completely transparent. This means i have no margin. I have nearly 20 million dollars in cash and about 1 million in a short position. Now i expect to trade back entirely into the market within 60 days. This is extremely risky and has exposed me to substantial capital gains, but after buying each dip of march of 2020, i’ve been extremely consistent, extremely consistent, i mean i, you know people people like to say: oh kevin hasn’t been consistent.

That’S not actually true. If we go back to march of 2020 kevin’s been on this path, buy the dip buy the day, buy the dip always buy the dip right now. Kevin is changing directions. So it’s fair to say yeah. That is a change of direction, and this change of direction came suddenly uh.

It actually came thursday night after i uh throughout the night did a substantial amount of of additional research on top of all of the years of research. I already have into this economy and when i combined new information with all of my old experiences and all of my old research understanding this market on a day-to-day basis, i am worried that we’re really just at the lifeboat stage of the titanic. So it’s kind of like the titanic hit the iceberg. Maybe we hit the iceberg in december, it’s like ah crap the fed’s actually going to respond to inflation, but we’re now just getting on the lifeboats, we’re not at the sinking phase yet and we’re certainly not at the rescue phase. Yet that’s just my belief and so i’m making an outsized bet on this.

I believe this creates an opportunity for me to lower my risk and exposure to the market and to time a better result. Now this could be very stupid because again we know that time in the market beats timing, the market. We know that it’s much safer to dca, but when you’re exposed 100 to higher valuation tech companies, you might consider taking a more protective approach, especially if you’re also exposed to margin, and especially, if you have other cash needs coming up. But the most important bottom line out of all of this is, i expect more fear to get priced into this market between january 25th and march 16th, and so i plan to re-enter the market. Very suddenly, i’m going to very suddenly buy right back in with a balance of short-term call options and share purchases, all of which will be available to members of the stocks and psychology money course.

So i will be spending money on put contracts over the next few weeks and i will be spending money buying back into this market over the next 60 days. I’M taking the entire portfolio and i’m trading it, which is extremely risky, and i don’t advise anybody to do it. But if you want to know every single fart that i make with that 20 million dollars use that link down below and join the stocks. And psychology of money course so that you could see how and why i’m reallocating and that way i can really use my portfolio to leverage what i believe will happen in the market. However, it’s really important to follow the checklist and understand what the market needs to rise number one.

The fed fear needs to end. I don’t believe this is likely until march 16th. Cpi data needs to indicate an inflection down. We have not seen this yet. This is unlikely until march 10th number.

Three strong earnings are unlikely to convince institutions to go long, because institutions represent client money and, as long as clients are fearful about the federal reserve and uncertain about the federal reserve markets, hate uncertainty. I don’t believe that institutions can buy the dip until the fear catalysts go away, otherwise they’ll likely lose substantial clients and hedge funds do not want to lose clients. If you had a bunch of clients and 100 million dollars under management. Do you want to invest when your clients are saying hey if you’re not protecting us right now, we’re out and we’re taking our money out? It’S important to consider that that’s why we’re seeing shorts so high?

That’S why we’re seeing so much selling so again, markets and institutions need to feel like the fed’s fund rate. Increasing uh well, first of all, fear reduces at the fed, but then also the markets need to realize that the fed funds rate increasing is actually not that big of a deal. It’S usually the fear that leads up to it. That’S the bigger deal. So once these things clear, then i believe we have the conditions for a proper economic recovery, not a fake out convictionless rally, because, sadly right now, markets regularly sell off in the second half of the day, implying institutional outflows and trades or traders taking advantage of the Buy the dip crowd now to be extremely clear.

This is a massive trade and highly risky. This is not financial advice. I will be back in the market very soon, but i’m waiting for the proper catalyst to return and, if you’re not actively engaged with the market. On a regular basis, like i am literally all day every day, eight hours a day, passive, investing is probably best if you’re more of an active trader buckle up. Ultimately, though, the choice is yours, thanks, so much for watching check out the programs on building your wealth link down below with a massive coupon expiration on january 28th, especially since our path course comes out at the end of this month.

That’S super exciting and check out stream yard via the link down below thanks so much bye.

via My $20,000,000 Market Bet.

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

Text

MICHAEL SAYLOR ON THE BITCOIN CRASH

Today, for the bitcoin price, with no one else, but the one and only michael saylor. Finally, after 12 months talking on our channel, we have him back and we have juicy juicy and interesting things to discuss, not only in regards to price targets well, but also in regards to institutions some potential insider information why he is buying bitcoin at every single dip And much much more if you thought the last interview we made, which is the second most watched, mica sailor, video on the whole internet was worth watching. I can tell you the information in this video are definitely worth watching so watch this video until the very end smash up the like button. I leave michael sailor’s twitter profile down below if you’re, not following that one. What are you doing with your life and with that being said, i wanted to come to the by far most important question of today michael sailor.

How are you doing today? My man awesome happy to be here thanks for having me i’m happy to have you as well. I get nostalgic feelings. We talked like 12 months ago um before elon musk officially announced that he bought bitcoin. I still think, and probably you’re not gonna deny or approve.

I still think you did a very big part of actually getting him and tesla into bitcoin. You had a very big part, in my opinion, from the run of bitcoin from 30 000 to 60. 000 of many institutions getting in. We are very grateful for that, as we need this, of course, for mainstream adoption and for also bitcoin being recognized as legitimate store of value. So now, 12 months later, let’s reevaluate a little bit, and i wanted to ask you um.

Well, back in the days it was elon musk, i’m pretty sure it was you getting him into it. Who knows? Did you talk ever since then to other people of interest, maybe other important people who are now likely to get into bitcoin who at least got interested in it? Yeah it’s been a pretty communicative year. I mean i spent a lot of time talking with people that are interested in bitcoin.

I think it’s been a great 12 months. There’S been an extraordinary increase in interest amongst family offices, a lot of a lot of high net worth individuals that didn’t really know much about bitcoin it it all of a sudden, came onto their radar in 2021. A lot of private companies, i know a lot of uh, you know a lot of friends of mine and i make a lot of new friends now to run private companies and they’re all wondering what should they do with their treasury. I um i’ve been reached out to by a lot of public companies and and uh public investors as well. So i spent a lot of time talking with executives of large uh enterprises from all over the world.

I mean now you can zoom anywhere, so anybody in the world interested in bitcoin that wants to understand how to put it on a balance sheet. Oftentimes will want to talk with me um. I have a lot of uh a lot of engagement with public investors uh and uh. Sometimes it’s you know it’s just uh meetings to explain what we’re doing and why we do it. But you know: if you go on our website, you see we actually did a micro strategy, investors day and um.

Half of the discussion is our bitcoin strategy. We have lots and lots of people that show up and when we’re doing that, but also we post all those things online and – and they get many many many views, so i think uh. I think our job job is never done. If you think about it. Bitcoin really was uh was not on anybody’s radar; it was on one percent of the markets radar before march of 2020 and then by the end of 2020, it was like one and a half or two percent of people’s radar in 2021, it uh started moving on The radar of a lot more companies and and uh, like you know, you may have noticed uh goldman sachs, all of a sudden, is uh starting to decline.

Morgan and the coin city group is starting to cover bitcoin a lot more. A lot more uh information coming from the bulge bracket firms and uh, partly that’s because there are so many companies coming public that have a bitcoin interest. You know i think uh microstrategy was a on-ramp for a lot of public investors to get into bitcoin right. Our market cap was a bit more than a billion dollars before we got into bitcoin and none of our investors had any bitcoin exposure. You know our enterprise value increased to eight eight to ten billion dollars and, of course, that’s ten billion dollars worth of of institutional investors.

Holding bitcoin backed bonds converts our junk our junk bonds. Our senior secured debt is backed by bitcoin. Our converts are backed by bitcoin. We did 1.7 billion worth of converts all backed by bitcoin in hawaii or, let’s say, get back by bitcoin, but their bitcoin exposed people invested in them for the bitcoin upside and then all the common equity and so uh that’s uh.

It’S definitely a reason to talk to a lot of people, but microstrategy is just one company and i think, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, we’ll probably have two student bitcoin miners that are public, and so, if you, if you’re looking at at, maybe One of the most important trends of the past year and a half it’s the parade of bitcoin miners that are coming public and uh in the transition of uh small bitcoin miners that were trading on secondary stock markets like they were trading on the german exchanges or Or the the scandinavian exchanges or the london exchange and they’ve all and the canadian exchange and they’ve all been transitioning to the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. And so, as you see, that trend of companies coming public companies switching their registration to the north american capital markets in the u.s capital markets that causes uh all of the large banks to wake up and all the large investors to wake up. And that, of course, brings them the coverage and when everybody’s doing that you know the question is: how should i think about this as a public company and so microstrategy, you know coming out early and making such a big commitment is, you know, has, has been able Uh to get a platform to communicate and i think that’s been instrumental yeah yeah. I i absolutely agree – and i personally i find it crazy, but in a good way, crazy.

This steve jobs, crazy that, like microstrategy at every single dip, sometimes like some purchases, were even much higher than now, but every single time, michael just tried, the price dips. Microstrategy comes out with an announcement, sometimes a little bit delayed that you bought even more. I think you have more than 100 in because you are also buying on debt now, of course, which um for the specific purpose of bitcoin. It really makes sense so now. My question is that almost on a weekly or bi-weekly basis, these announcements are coming out.

Is this ever going to stop, or are you going to accumulate bitcoin until you are owning them all? Um, of course that’s not possible, but please, let me know if there’s any end in sight or do you want a dollar cost average forever. As long as you are getting loans, as long as you are able to buy more and more, you know um our our initial purchase of bitcoin, i would character defensive when we bought the first 250 million, and then we did a dutch auction uh to see what Our investors would think, and the investors were pretty supportive and we ended up with another 175 million dollars and that became kind of opportunistic. We thought well, the investors are supportive, so we’ll do it then um we got toward the end of the year and and our stock price started moving up and it it moved to like a 10-year high and we had the ability to go back and raise uh Convertible debt – and we, you know, we started trying to raise 400 million dollars, but we upsized the deal the 650 million dollars and it was extraordinarily successful. We we raised 650 million dollars at a 75 basis, point rate and that and and bitcoin was like trading toward an all-time high there, like 18 or 19 000 a coin and people thought we were crazy, but you know our view was this is the future.

So we bought that bitcoin and now also, i think, opportunistic. I would characterize that when we got into february we um, we really reviewed our business strategy and we flipped from defensive to opportunistic and we realized this is now strategic right. This is a this. Is the strategy of the business we’re going to acquire digital property and bitcoin is the world’s greatest digital property like a property development company like if i moved to dubai, and i decided just to buy all the land in dubai or all the land i could buy? Or buy up all of manhattan um.

So if you look at our 10k right or our annual report, an annual report, a publicly traded company, it has to state what is its business strategy and then what are the risks associated with it? That’S part of the public company filing, so what you’ll see is in 2021. The big change for us is our business strategy, went from a single strategy to create and sell enterprise, business intelligence software worldwide to two strategies right and one was the enterprise software strategy, and the second was a bitcoin strategy, and the strategy is is very clearly enumerated. Our strategy is to acquire and to hold bitcoin. So the short answer, your question is: we’re going to keep buying bitcoin, forever, um and uh, and the reason why is because the amount of bitcoin coming on the market is exponentially falling and we know it’s asymptotically capped at 21 million.

We. We also know that the uh, the stock to flow rate has falling acid, is rising asymptotically or it’s it’s rising rapidly to infinity um, and it’s about to go negative right. The uh. You know it used to be the bitcoin miners when they were private, they were cash businesses and so, if you’re, a private operator operating, maybe in china, you’re you’re mining, bitcoin and you’re selling bitcoin to get hard cash. But then, when the markets developed, the public markets for bitcoin and the public markets for bitcoin mining stocks developed these businesses became well capitalized.

So if you look at uh, if you look at what’s happened the past 12 months, most of the of the bitcoin mining, has shifted from china to the north. America and these companies come public, so marathon and riot and hut 8, and you know, and argo and soon core scientifical be public via spec, um and uh. Just just this last week, uh bit farms announced they bought 1 000 bitcoin with cash, that’s 42 million dollars or worth of bitcoin okay they’re they’re. It’S a company buying bitcoin as fast as it is mining. Bitcoin marathon uh bought a bunch of bitcoin earlier in 2021, and and one thing that happened is all these publicly traded.

Bitcoin miners stopped selling their bitcoin right now now that, because, if you’re, a bitcoin miner you’re being valued based upon your ability, bitcoin right. So if you’re, a public company investor, if you were buying a bitcoin miner and you thought bitcoin – was going to go to zero, would you buy the miner? No? No! So all the public investors are long bitcoin.

They expect bitcoin to go up right. So what would you rather have a bitcoin miner that mines a lot of bitcoin or a little bitcoin? Well, a lot. Would you rather have a bitcoin miner that mines the bitcoin and sells it or the bitcoin miner that mines the bitcoin and keeps it you want to keep it and bitcoin? I would keep it, but it’s always important for me to decide whether to mine or not what is the what’s the cost of producing and how much bitcoin would i get in t0, putting the money instead of in mining equipment into bitcoin directly as its long-term, rising In value, energy cost might be increasing, so it’s it’s always a rough calculation right yeah.

So imagine. Bitcoin miners start to actually raise billions and billions of dollars in capital as credit and debt and debt offerings and equity. Now they can either buy the bitcoin mining rigs or they can buy the bitcoin. Well, one thing that they’re: they can’t really spend all that money on bitcoin mining rigs, there’s a limit to how much capacity they can buy and when they can bring it online. I think we’re getting sold out.

It seems to me, like those mining rigs, the lead times are becoming a year or year and a half so as as they get better capitalized that excess capital uh converts into not selling bitcoin and then, when they get even better cap by success, capital becomes. I’M not sell bitcoin, but i’m also going to accumulate bitcoin. Okay. So now the stock to flow starts to switch from a stock to flow of 50 to a stock, to flow of 100 to a stock to flow of 200. And then, if at some point, the stock to flow goes to infinity.

And then the stock to flow goes because the miners don’t necessarily dump any bitcoin on the market, to sell they’re, actually mining it to keep as an investment and then they’re buying access bitcoin, because it’s creative to their to their balance sheet is secretive to their to Their uh stock, it’s so this is a a pretty powerful trend. In fact, i think i think we saw riot raise 600 million dollars of equity in the fourth quarter and we saw marathon do a 650 million dollar convertible debt deal in the fourth quarter, and we know that uh other companies. You know that i one in particular. I think raised another 400 million, so three companies raised one and a half billion dollars. Just three companies.

If you look across the 24, publicly traded ones, it’s a lot more. But if you look across the 24, publicly traded ones and the big 25 private ones, you can see that billions and billions of dollars of capital via private equity, debt, public equity and uh credit lines are flowing to the miners and all the miners have naturally long Investors that are long bitcoin, so what you? What you have there, is this very unique situation. Maybe in the history of the world, we’ve never had a circumstance where the producers of the product we’re producing a scarcity like gold miners are producing a commodity. Silver is a commodity, copper is a commodity.

You know. Glass and steel are commodities right, there’s, there’s an unlimited amount, so the the natural reaction or the natural, rational behavior of all those companies is to produce as much as possible and sell it as fast as they can, but with bitcoin, because we’re right now to bitcoin The rational behavior is to produce as much as possible, but to sell as little as you can and if you sell it fast, your equity is worth less and if you produce it and hold it, your equity is worth more. So if your equity is worth more, you can raise more capital, and if you raise more capital, you can buy more rather than sell more, and so what happens is the well-capitalized miners also um? They are also the least likely to sell. So if you’re not well capitalized, what are you going to do you either have to go public or you’re, going to sell your company to a public miner, and, and did you notice that marathon just bought a huge amount of uh mining rigs from bitmain, like a Billion dollars worth or something a lot dude check out the press release it’s like a massive amount.

I think they’ve uh announced that they’re headed toward 23 tera 23 exahash by the middle of 2023. Okay. So what does that mean they’re from because well because marathon’s the high bidder like? If, if someone offered you a billion dollar order right and no one else did would you take? The money depends on what i could do.

Who’S who’s got more money, who’s got, the who’s got the money to out-bid marathon in the bitcoin mining business. Nobody, nobody see yeah. So what happens? Is the public companies get the largest market cap and then they buy up all the mining rigs? Now, if you’re a miner in asia, you can’t buy any money.

So what happens to the hash power? The hash power moves to north america. So if the hash power is moving in north america, what are the investors and bitcoin miners move to north america? So who wins north american miners? What do they do?

Well, the mining rigs and block everybody else out of the market? Okay, fine! Then? What do they do? They buy up all the miners in the rest of the world, then what happens?

Well, the public investors stock, they’re gon na see all the bitcoin rewards right then, what happens they raise more money? What happens they? They can’t buy any more mining rigs, so what they do is they stop? Selling bitcoin they’ve already seen that right. If you look at the top 20 bitcoin miners, you see that they’re they’re huddling their bitcoin.

So then what happens after they stop selling their bitcoin price of bitcoin starts to go up that happens. Well then, you start buying the bitcoin, so i mean imagine if a gold miner said oh yeah, we just uh raised a billion dollars and we bought goal with it. Well, they’re not going to do that, because gold’s not scarce, just see gold’s, not sk. For two reasons: it’s not scarce at the metallic level, but it’s also not scarce at the derivative level. Right you can.

You can just print too many gold derivatives, so bitcoin’s a much better idea, and i think i think the thing that’s underestimated. It’S underappreciated and there is like a a one to three year. Delay is the the impact of all the publicly traded companies that are mining. Bitcoin right, if you look at them right, i think uh bitcoin mining revenue is like at the current price, it’d be like 14 billion a year, maybe okay! So what hap?

If the publicly uh the publicly traded bitcoin miners are able to raise 14 billion dollars in capital in the year 2022, The price increases significantly, it’s not just like, because a billion dollar in buy volume of course increases the market cap by way more than a billion, so 14 billion would be significant for the price. Very, very significant. You have two dynamics right. I mean first of all of the 14 billion the gross margin on that 70. 75 percent yeah.

So if they mine 14 billion they’ve got a 10 billion dollar profit. Well, what are you going to do with it you’re going to invest that in bitcoin, because you’re long bitcoin, so you’ve got 10 billion dollars that might flow his profit that gets reinvested and then, if you raise another 10 billion right, you’ve got what do you? What can you invest that in well, you know you’re going to lock up the mining rigs and then you’re going to buy so we’re talking about um we’re talking about a very material impact on the supply of bitcoin flowing in the market, and i think the logical Conclusion is sometime in the next 12 to 36 months. The miners are a net buyer of bitcoin they’re, not really sell bitcoin and uh, and that’s a it’s a positive feedback loop right, because the miner that uh accumulates the most bitcoin generates the highest market cap and has the most power to accumulate more bitcoin. So the game theory says that if you’re the minor number two, don’t you want to copy that and mine are number three and when you get to minor number 27, if you can’t copy that you’re gon na sell out to minor number two you see, and so The industry will uh consolidate, come public, go west, strengthen and um, and the capital flows that are interesting here are um, not just the trading and the spot market of bitcoin or trading in the derivatives of bitcoin.

I mean it used to be, it was spot bitcoin. Then it was derivatives of bitcoin. Now it’s uh regulated derivatives exchange like the cme but check out the side, markets check out the market in trading and um marathon and riot and beto and mstr. And if you look at the amounts like uh like we can we can do it even right now, like uh just for kicks. If i go uh here to my screen, like even in the first hour, can i share the screen?

Uh. No i’ll, just tell you. Okay, in the first hour um it’s uh, it’s like 90 million dollars of uh marathon stock has been traded in one hour, um, 60, 60, 70 million dollars. No, no! It’S about 35 million dollars of riot stock has been traded in one hour.

The beat the beto etf has about 50 million dollars traded in one hour. Microstrategy is a 50 million is traded in one hour. So you see where i’m getting at that. There are very large markets that are uh, that are derivatives of bitcoin that are getting trading and that’s and that’s capital market support for that, and, ultimately those markets, um they’re, supporting bitcoin itself. You see when you get to the point where you have 30 40 50 companies that are trading with billion dollar, multi-billion dollar market caps, then, and all those are maturing and stabilizing the industry, and this is a dynamic that really is a big advantage to um to Bitcoin versus any other commodities, business or any other store of value, and it’s also it’s also state it’s a differentiator of bitcoin versus other cryptos right you in order to take a company public, you kind of need a proof-of-work mining network.

You need a company in texas that does stuff right. You, you can’t very easily take public a staking network because uh stakes are probably securities and and it’s a much more complicated thing. It starts to look like a mutual fund, whereas miners are operating companies and operating companies. Uh can get capitalized in the private market and the public market, and so you think of them as the bridge between uh traditional mainstream capital and uh crypto economy and uh. It’S it’s important to stabilize uh bitcoin with all these bitcoin derivatives, but it’s also important to stabilize it politically, because you know the governor of texas now has a bunch of companies in texas that are paying taxes in texas, they’re, employing people in texas that are buying Energy in texas that are good corporate citizens in texas.

That’S an industry just like it makes an industry in el salvador industry in canada and industry and in new york and uh, and the creation of these industries. They they recruit, support and and and uh people. Uh people are much. You know how they support the soccer team from their home town because it’s in their home stadium they play in my home stadium, i’m very loyal. People are loyal to the home team and so bitcoin miners, they’re kind of the home team and uh and that they will recruit the mayors, the governors they recruit, the investment banks.

Right i mean when uh, when marathon sells a 650 million dollar convertible deal. The investment bank sold it and got and got paid to do, and then there are investors on the other side that bought it. So what we’re doing is we’re sharing the good fortune spreading the wealth around and it’s decentralizing the network more right and all of those are good things, and every single company is working very aggressively all the time to decentralize the network right. Fine. I i want to find uh new political jurisdictions i want to.

I want to recruit energy companies, nuclear power companies, the urcot grid. You know geothermal companies, i want to recruit in countries. I want to recruit new institutional investors. I want to recruit new investment bankers and, of course, when you’ve done all that, then the media wants to cover it right, because cnbc now has 20 or 30 publicly traded, tickers and you’ve heard that phrase interested i’m not interested. In this thing, the word interest, classically understood, means i have a financial interest in this story.

So when the wall street journal writes a story about a ticker, you know r, i o t or m a r a if the ticker is there. That means that there’s a built-in audience that will want to read that story. They are interested. They don’t write stories about private companies very often, because if i write a story about a private company, who’s got an interest in it. Nobody can can you buy it?

No, can you sell it? No can you trade that, can you can you trade the options on it? No, if i can’t bet on it, i’m not so caring about it right. I mean, i think, that’s why i have a youtube channel about bitcoin yeah, because it’s changing all the time right, like uh, for example, uh. Even if you hate like write a story about like such and such you know such and such bitcoin miner is really poorly run and stupid.

Well, i can go and short the stock. I can bet against it right this quarter. Oh, i read that tom brady’s arm is sore this week. I can bet on the game, and so it becomes newsworthy and uh, and if you want to capture the interest of bloomberg and cnbc right and wall street journal, right and and every other financial writer, you have to give them something interesting. And that means public tickers.

Right, that’s why you know best things matter, because we still have a world where you know 99 of the money is in the traditional economy, and that means 99 percent of the political support 99 of the media. Interest 99 of the of the financial banking systems, and so the crossover, the crossover is, the etfs. The crossover is companies like microstrategy. The crossover is the bitcoin miners right. That crossover creates a bridge between the old and the new and uh and it and it provides a smooth, uh graceful transition.

I mean, if i know graceful is not a word we use. We describe crypto very often right. It’S not nothing graceful about it sometimes, but it would be. It would be much worse right and even harder if you didn’t have those public companies that are are intermingling their balance sheets with uh, bitcoin and and by inference the crypto economy yeah. I i definitely agree and um i see also microstrategy being something like a link between the traditional world and bitcoin people have to understand.

Bitcoin is the only asset i can think of like. I would even leave out time as as an asset if you wanted to which is absolutely scarce right. I think you mentioned it one time. Well, let’s say there is a billion dollar investment going into gold, uh mining. Then, of course more gold is mine.

Maybe it’s gon na be made more efficiently, maybe in the future we can mine it on asteroids. You don’t really know. What’S the maximum supply, if you put more money into gold mining, more gold is being mined effectively right. But if you put more money into bitcoin mining, the network gets more secure and now think about. We have a few.

You mentioned a few names, a few very, very big companies already involved in bitcoin. Let it be mining, let it be investing, but in the end of the day we have like seven, eight thousand billion dollar institutions or billion dollar nc entities or pers uh people worth at least a billion dollars like of them, maybe two percent or so on exposed. So we potentially have still 98 of them who have to be exposed and we have 40 million millionaires. We have basically 98.2 of the world’s population not involved in bitcoin and where we usually have demand and supply when the demand goes up.

Well, people produce more. So you have demand supply and the price regulating the whole mechanism. In this case we have demand a fixed supply and the price. Well, when the, when the demand increases the supply can’t increase, the price is the only regulating mechanism, and i really hope that the people understand that especially – and that’s where my next question comes into place, uh in times like this, where people are questioning well, are we Going into a bear market, the bitcoin price is basically going sideways for a year wow i mean we are like for 12 years, just going up with a few breaks. So now that is my next question actually and number one.

Do you think we are in a bear market right now and number two something i was interested in? There are a few different theories. You probably know the four year cycle, theory and there’s also another theory about lengthening cycles, and even though you are of course, a long-term investor price will be to a certain degree in the short and midterm also interesting to you. So i really would like to know um. Do you think we are in a bear market right now?

Do you actually think this is just the beginning of a much bigger run towards the upside in the mid run, let’s say, and what do you think about the four year cycle theory and the lengthening cycles? Well, um, i think we’re in a consolidating plateau and uh. It’S a it’s uh. I think it’s a pretty good plateau because there’s all these there are all these conventional mainstream investors and uh they’ve been watching bitcoin and when bitcoin was going up too fast when running parabolic, they’re afraid to uh to buy in, but right now sitting in a plateau Where they, you know, they’re a lot more likely to buy it by the way. If the return looks back and the return was 5x.

The nasdaq we’ve got some really great news. This week, uh mueller came out and he announced that half of his personal net worth half of his personal portfolio was invested in bitcoin and he you know he said the other half was like an amazon he’s held amazon for 25 years or whatever, and you know Amazon is famously volatile, it went through lots and lots of 80 downs and a 90 draw down and he’s just been sitting forever he’s like a classic hodler and amazon’s big tech. In essence, what he said was i own digital gold and i own a big tech retailer and i’m and that’s half and half now he had a year ago. He said i have some, but he never said 50 percent now you’ve got all the other mainstream investors that have some gold exposure. You know the paul tudor jones and the stanley druckenmillers and the ray dalios and the you know, fill in the blank and they’re all starting to wake up to this, and when they see bill miller, who’s uh, you know, runs multiple billions of dollars and is a Billionaire in his own right, saying saying: this is the only thing i can find that can go up by a factor of 10 to 50 That um, that also is a, is a store of value asset right.

Then then they start to pay attention now, if bitcoin was trading at an all-time high and it was like on fire they’d be afraid. But you kind of like the idea that bitcoin is 40 off the all-time high and it’s catching its breath and you think maybe there’s an entry point and in fact i’ve seen lots of high net worth individuals and family offices that they’re just now starting to do An allocation to bitcoin like maybe we should allocate five percent or we should alloc two and a half percent. You know and uh you know february they would have been or march or april or may they’d be afraid and and now it you know, they’re through a lot of the risk. You know the china crack down, de-risked the situation, the um, the consolidations diversity and uh. The situation, every single, publicly traded miner, every every miner that comes public.

Do you risk the situation? Uh, all the political uh, the regulatory clarity is de-risking the situation, and so i i don’t think we’re in a bear market. I think i think bitcoin is it’s moving. Um through this phase, uh, where it you know, it moved from 4, 000 to 40 000 with volatility, and it’s going to move from 4 000 to 500 000. I mean the next plateau.

Is the gold plateau right to? Basically, digital gold replaces gold and flips gold and that’s like a five thousand five hundred thousand dollar number, i think and then um and then then, after that, it’s really just a property index or a monetary index, which should be 10x that so you know what i See is uh is a move from where we are to 500 000 over three four five years and then over the following three to five years. You know it could take, could take 10 years, but but a move in the next. The next epic, from the 500 000 to 5 million dollar range, because ultimately people say what is what is bitcoin well bitcoin is the apex proper, the human race? It’S the only property, you can truly own.

So the question is: who wants it? Well, everybody in the world with weaker property. So what is weaker property? Well? How about like a second house in africa like how about land in the middle of of of africa or asia or or south america?

How about a building and fill in the blank? Would you rather own a building and in venezuela or argentina how about a ranch in colombia like everywhere in the world where you have excess money and you want to invest in property? The problem with investing in a currency derivative is the currencies, are collapsing right and they’re they’re collapsing at 10 15 a year in the western world, but they’re collapsing at 40, 50 60 a year in the developing world, so so bonds, they’re weak property, uh real estate Is weak property because you’ve got a politician that can to you know they’re going to tax it and they can take it away from you and you can’t move it if you need to leave and you can only rent it to people in the country so and Then equities are weak property because uh, because the ceo controls that equity they control it’s a security and if you own securities, the bank, the bank controls it. Let’S say you own a security. You live in zimbabwe while the government of zimbabwe can take it away from you.

Try buying it at jp morgan, they can take it away from you. The ceo can print more equity and they can take it away from you. A random government. You know in australia can put a fine on google and they can take it away from you. A union can unionize right.

So, if you’re holding, if you’re holding securities you’ve got lots of risk. If you’re holding real estate, you’ve got lots of risk if you’re holding gold well, the bankers can print more gold paper and the gold miners can mine more gold and try to move through an airport with 10 million dollars of gold or try to move through an Airport, with 10 000 of gold trying to move to an airport with a thousand dollars a gold, i tried to move to an airport with a uh, a pen knife that amazon told me and it was labeled as tsa friendly. I couldn’t get a knife: that’s like a quarter inch or half inch blade through a metal detector in an airport, so your property is all weak all of it, and so how much is weak hundreds of trillions of dollars of weak property. So, ultimately, i think that there are eight billion people on the planet or there shortly will be eight billion people on the planet and they’re all going to want uh some amount of digital property, instead of like that second airbnb, or that investment property or that equity. I even finally you know i even did a little survey on twitter where, where um cash out, but you um they, let you decide whether or not you wanted to give someone the gift of a stock or the gift of bitcoin or the gift of cash.

For christmas and uh, i actually put in a survey, i said: what do you want to give away uh? You know cash stock, you know equity or bitcoin. It’S like you know: 93 bitcoin 7 stock, like that is to say everybody intuitively understands that equity or securities are risky and that and that bitcoin is property, and so it’s like a 20 to one 10 10 to one or 20 preference, if they, if they need To own something – and so i think, michael, your audience is over proportionally smart also, you have a big bitcoin audience, but i agree that this will be representative, probably for the population in a few years. Otherwise i wouldn’t be sitting here um. I i think it’s impressive results for sure yeah yeah, like you’re right uh, you have to be educated among the educated.

There is an overwhelming preference for property, and i mean it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that if i offered you a million dollars of prop of real estate property in africa or a million dollars worth of stocks of african companies or a million dollars Worth of gold in africa or a million dollars worth of bitcoin in africa, which of those four would an educated person choose, i would take bitcoin because it leaves me all the options to reinvest hold, sell, move everything. So that means that you know you and i we have our work cut out first for the next decade, because this is going to be a decade of education right i mean because a lot of people don’t understand digital property yet and they don’t understand, but but And that’s the only reason they don’t want it. If you were to go to you know most people in the world and you say you know, go to lebanon or go to turkey and you say well uh, you know the turkish lira is crashing. The lebanese pound is crashing. What do you want?

Well, there’s a small group of people who say i’m going to stick with the local currency, because i’m a patriot and because my political leader told me to invest everything in that there’s a large group of people. That say, i think i want to switch that to digital dollars like like. They know they want dollars. They know they want a dollar rather than you know, local lebanese pound. I there’s a larger group, i mean.

Maybe 20 percent of patriots, 50 60 70 are going to take the currency and then the last 10 20 30 they’re going to take the bitcoin because they know the pro that bitcoin is even stronger than the currency. But that’s the dynamic that’s spreading right now, except every single day. People are getting smarter information is spreading right. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, and so when you, when you look at you know what is my thesis for bitcoin over the long term, my thesis is technology, will advance everybody’s smartphones are going to get more powerful, wouldn’t get to a world where, Eventually, you know google and facebook and apple they’re, going to also support this digital property and digital currency. That’S billions of people, twitter is going to spread, youtube is going to spread, knowledge is going to spread and, i suppose, even 20 years from now there will probably be some kind of ignorant.

You know patriots that are ideologues. That’Ll say i reject all new things and i’m going to just do whatever i’m told, but it’s going to get to be an increasingly small portion of the population and and by the way they’re not going to they’re, not they’re, going to lose their money right, like The point is they’re going to lose their money, the money is going to move to the wise, and so this the smarter part of the population is going to get richer. The wealth is going to transfer and that’s going to create a a strong dynamic. So you know the bitcoin path is clear: we’re not the the concept of bear market only makes sense if you have a short enough time horizon like if you’re a trader and your time horizon is 12 weeks. You can have a bear market but uh.

If you have a 10-year time horizon, then you really have to ask yourself what is the technology trend and what is the cultural trend and uh, and the technology trend is clear: we’re moving toward everybody on earth having a digital wallet that they can move digital assets Around that’s clear and cultural trend is people are globalizing so again like if you, if you’re sitting in the middle of the serengeti and someone offers you the chance to buy a million dollars worth of ranch land in a country where you don’t trust the government, like It used to be, you didn’t, have a choice. 20 years ago you had to take the local currency and you had to own the local land, but 20 years from now, you can use a foreign currency. Like i mean, the truth is just about, everybody would switch to the dollar tomorrow if they could, and they would swap no one’s going to use the peso the bolivar, the niara, the pound, whatever they would all switch tomorrow. If they had technology that was safe, if they could figure out how to do it, so we’re globalizing we’re using like language like english, like we’re globalizing our language, we’re globalizing, our currency, we’re globalizing our property. It’S moving on digital rails, uh that that creates an advantage for the early adopters there’s going to be volatility, but you know like if you bought amazon stock 10 years ago.

You know you could have bought it for 250. A share people just said: you’re stupid. You know, and if you were holding amazon stock 20 years ago, it traded down 90 percent right. Well, the you know the world’s second richest or richest man was stupid enough not to sell when it traded down 90 percent right, that’s the key. I mean when facebook came public, the stock traded down 60 or something you know it crashed and mark zuckerberg did himself, and so i mean the real secret to success.

Is you figure out the technology trend over a decade over between 10 and 30 years, and then you just either make that asset or hold that asset? And you don’t really obsess over short-term cycles, because you outsmart yourself right you’re, like you’ll, be that guy that you know you’ll be convinced, we’re in a bear cycle, you’ll sell and then all of a sudden, some piece of news will come out. The price will double and you’ll never get back in and it will you know it’s like it’ll it’ll run away from you, so i i don’t think anybody’s smart enough to time the market yeah. I i really agree. Actually, usually what i do in life is.

I try to learn as much from mistakes from other people, so i asked a few ogs in the space when i joined later on within the last few years. What was your biggest mistake? What was your biggest regret, or what would you do differently and every single one of them said buying high selling low other way around buying altcoins investing here investing they are going back to us dollar. Eventually, everyone who is in this space for at least five years would have done the best by just buying and holding and just doing nothing, and i really hope that most of the people watching this year are going to understand that uh. If you don’t want to believe me, just ask anyone who is in this space for more than five years, and he will probably agree with that um.

I just wanted to put a few things to set here together, because i want to make sure that people are taking this away. First of all, we mentioned the price target of gold, which would, if you put it over into the market cap of gold over which is, like i don’t know, 9 trillion or something over to bitcoin or 10 trillion. And then we would have a price of 50 or 500 000 us dollars per bitcoin if it would be on par with gold. So you said this should happen within the next three to six years. So let’s say best case three years, then another three to six years to ten times that right, if we are going from the store value um into other regions, so you would say your best case scenario for a five million dollar.

Bitcoin would be best case scenario. Speculative of course, uh would be 2028. Is that correct yeah? I don’t think i don’t that’s the best cage, but i don’t think it’ll go that fast, but i think over a decade it’s reasonable yeah, like you, you said like six to ten years, right of course and um once again. What is ten years, if you can hundred times your money, uh people really forget about that, and in the end of the day, do you really want to make every day 10 20 hours research?

What outcome to invest in? Do you really want to buy high sell or when you can have almost certainty, 400x right? That is something that people have to ask themselves. So thank you very much for this outlook. That was uh, definitely a very, very interesting one um that is actually already it for today.

I would love to get maybe back to another interview, not in the next, not after 12 months, maybe in the next few months again. I hope i get a little bit more of your time. Of course, whatever you want to share here towards the end, i would love to to have some last words for you to the audience you know um. If i look at the course of my life and look at investment wisdom, i’m i’m reminded of a few things. One warren buffett said: if you wouldn’t hold that thing for 10 years, you shouldn’t hold it for 10 minutes.

So if you start with this, just warren buffett idea find high quality property high quality assets that you believe in and if you’re not sure for 10 years. Instead of investing in it, you probably should invest in learning more about it right study, something long enough right, but google, facebook, apple, amazon, microsoft, bitcoin study, something long enough that you believe in it and uh and then, when you buy it, buy it with a 10-year Idea and to be thinking, i’m gon na just hold this investment. I’M gon na hold this asset for a decade by the same is true with the house. If i bought a house, i wouldn’t buy a house that i expected to sell in three years or two years. If you don’t think you can live the rest of your life in that house, good rent, i mean when, when you buy a property, if you buy a truck, if you buy a piece of art, you know buy something that you love.

You know uh that you’re going to be committed to for a long period of time, because that’s a higher test and i think when people buy stuff and they’re like well, i know it’s got bugs and i know there are problems, but i’m not going to keep It that long right, what you’ve done, is you’ve lowered your standards when you buy your dream home and you say i’m going to retire here and live here. The rest of my life. You don’t live in fear that you have to find some other sucker to sell it to you know, because you don’t have to sell it because you bought it because you’re committed to it you’re married to it. So i think that i think that uh, that buffett sets a good example there. He bought coca-cola stock 50 years ago or something he still holds – coca-cola stuff and um.

I mean, i think, uh when you raise the bar to that standard. It makes things a lot easier it. What it says is you’re going to be you’re, going to you’re going to make a decision they’re going to make an allocation, and then you’re not going to stress out every day every minute. Every week, every month staring at the price like if, if you went every dinner party, if you went out and you got drunk and then you met everybody and you said hey, i want to show you my house. How much will you give me for it?

Now people get, you know you paid whatever 500 000 euros for it and someone’s like i’ll, give you 400 000 euros, you’d be so depressed. How much would you give me for it i’ll give you 600 thousand you’re ecstatic, and then you know two in the morning and you’re really drunk how much and then you find someone who’s even drunker than you. How much will you give me for it? 300. 000.

Now you’re really now i’m gon na slit my wrist, it’s because you’re continually over indulging in this exercise. If you just said this is my beautiful house, i love it. I’M gon na live in the rest of my life. You know, then, then it’s a totally different situation. If i look at all the mistakes that that i made, the mistakes are are generally just about.

Every investment i ever made was a good one, because i only bought good things. All my mistakes are. I wish i bought more, and my second mistake is: i’m i’m sad that i ever sold it for any reason. You’Re not doing this mistake anymore, you’re buying so many babies right now, michael to figure it out. Once you figure out what you love, then you buy it and then your question really is well.

If i’m gon na sell it what’s better than what i’m than what i’m already holding and that’s what i would ask anybody, that’s selling bitcoin right now! That’S what i was asking when it was 10 000, a coin. I said: who are these people selling this to me like? What could they possibly be buying with the money i’m giving them that’s better than what i’m buying from them, and the same is true. You’Ve got to network bitcoin, it’s pretty obvious that the world appreciates it.

It’S common property, it’s acknowledged by everybody in the world, is a as a dominant digital network. We know there’s more inflation coming, we know the technology’s advancing. We know that people like being able to put things on their smartphones yep. So if you believe in technology, if you believe you know, if you believe in the future of assets, like the only reason you would ever sell a high quality piece of property – is to buy something higher quality right. You know everyone that’s successful in life.

They don’t get successful by trading rapidly. In and out i mean bill gates, steve ballmer, elon, musk, mark zuckerberg, jeff, bezos they’re, not trading in and out of their property right, they’re buying property, they’re holding it for 30 years right, and so i think that uh just figure out what you love. If you’re not sure what you love do more research, when you, when you’ve done the research, the you know, warren buffett said one other thing he said the ideal holding company is the the ideal. Holding period is forever right. That’S the way you should think if you’re, if you’re a wise investor, buy something that you can give to your children’s children yeah and if you think that way, there’s a higher hurdle right look, maybe maybe you want to speculate, and maybe you want to gamble, or Maybe you want to invest, okay well, so take a portion of your assets that you invest for the long term and you allocate that to the highest quality property you can find, which i think is bitcoin, but you can decide and the other portion is investment risk And you’re going to actually that facebook might be peloton this quarter, but that you’re taking a risk and then maybe some is venture capital.

You invest in private companies, that’s a much, that’s a 10x bigger risk and then maybe some is speculation and you gamble with that and that’s a hundred x greater risk as long as there’s those four buckets the irrational. Then okay do that but be rational about it and uh. You know. If you really want to be successful, they’re really successful investors, they picked something they committed to it and they stayed with it and they’re unshakeable in their conviction, because the world will generate 10 000 anxiety-inducing headlines over the course of the next 10 years and every one Of them will be calculated to get your attention by creating maximum anxiety and there’s only one mistake you can make, which is to sell. That’S the one mistake and then everybody in the universe is going to try to get you to sell, because if they don’t create anxiety, right, inflammation or enragement is engagement right.

If they don’t create the anxiety, you won’t read the story, it’s click bait. You know. Sometimes people post stories about me on youtube and they say michael saylor, said: he’ll sell his bitcoin when this happens and i go whoa and then i want to click on it. I’M like wait a minute. I am michael saylor and i know i’m not selling my bitcoin.

They still got me to click on it. It’S that good, the in the media is, is engaged in. Getting you to react and there’s only one mistake when you’ve made the right decision when you when you your life, is set, you’ve got the perfect house and the perfect family and the perfect assets and the perfect property. The only mistake is get panicked out of your position, so don’t panic, yeah, there’s, there’s even a website, counting all the panic headlines about bitcoin that bitcoin is dead. It happened over and over again.

They said it in 2012, 13. 14. 15. It’S like happening over and over again um. I think you bought a lot of very important and valuable life.

Lessons to the table. Everyone. You can educate yourself for free andreas antonopoulos, videos free on the internet, a lot of nice uh interviews with michael sailor. You can just check on chain since 11 years address is increasing entities increasing um, i mean it. It’S it’s insane.

The hash rate increasing like without any breaks like all the on-chain data, is all pointing towards the same direction. The price is down 40 from the all-time high. Perfect fundamentals are higher right now the price is down. If you go to a shop, you want to buy a pair of shoes, it’s expensive! You go back the next day, it’s at a 40 discount.

The shoe is the exact same. Are you going to say? Oh i’m not gon na buy it it’s 40 cheaper. It doesn’t make any sense. Guys, honestly, like just make your own research, invest at your own risk once you did that and you like bitcoin, buy bitcoin hold it.

Don’T do anything else so with that being said, thank you very much for that. I just had one question in my: in the back of my mind, i forgot to ask you um. I probably i think i know the answer already, but for all the people watching right now. I know there are a lot of ethereum uh fanatics out there. I myself having 15 in ethereum.

Almost everything else is in bitcoin, of course, besides my own project, but like if you exclude that i have 80 in bitcoin, so i wanted to know from you: um are you holding any ethereum like even a dollar, and if not, would you consider in the future, At any time, in the future owning ethereum, a hundred percent of my uh crypto assets are bitcoin and uh the. Why is because it’s universally acknowledged that bitcoin is property, that is it is. It was a it’s a fair uh, distribution and, and it has none of the aspects of a security right, satoshi disappeared, the coins never moved for a year, they traded without a price. It was a project uh and, and it was a project without uh, any characteristics of investment contract. So i, if you look at the entire crypto ecosystem, all the uncertainty, all the regulatory uncertainty and and the question marks – are around uh securities right, uh, stable coins or securities lots of tokens of securities.

If there’s an ico, if there’s a central organization, if there’s a pre mine, if there’s any kind of, if there’s a foundation that has uh treasury, if there are executive decisions, if there are lots of hard forks that are happening every quarter every six months, that starts To look more like a security in the eyes of a regulator and i’m not i’m not your lawyer, so i’m not here to give you legal opinions one way or the other, but what i would say is i am a hundred percent certain that bitcoin is property And that means it’s common property to the world and i i don’t know the status of everything else. If something is property, it means that it is ethical and it is legal for a mayor, a governor, a senator, a congressman, a public official to promote it. Like chris, if you were to ask me right now, do you have a price prediction for micro stock? I would say: no that’s a security, i’m not going to give you an opinion about a security. If you were to ask me for an opinion about any company facebook, amazon apple, i would say that’s a security.

I would have civil liability right, it’s governed by the sec. I don’t wish to opine on it one way or the other right. If you would ask me about bitcoin, i will look you in the face and say: bitcoin is going up forever. It’S good everybody should own it. You see, you understand, there’s a there’s, a there’s, a safe harbor and there’s a clarity around bitcoin, because it is property when other things reach that degree of clarity.

If if there were other cryptos that were universally acknowledged as property, then then they’re something you could consider investing in, i don’t have a problem holding property, i would hold land, i would you know, i don’t have a problem promoting. I think you should buy your beach house. I think you should buy your second home. I don’t have a problem with that, but i’ll never give you any investment advice about a security, a private company, a public company, a crypto token uh, because that crosses this boundary. You know, and i and i don’t know like i right i just i i think you got to know your limitations and so so i’m hyper conservative in that regard as a public company officer and because i’ve been a publicly traded company for 22 years – and you Know i’m everything i do like if you, if you go and you look at our quarterly results, read them or read my 10k.

It has like pages and pages of risk factors in it. Full disclosure. When you have a security, you have an ethical obligation to give comprehensive disclosure about everything you uh everything you’ve done everything you’re thinking about doing and even then you worry right, and so i i like bitcoin, because it’s property and and you don’t have that issue – i’m Not ready and uh uh, it’s just not appropriate uh to go into the other uh crypto areas, because we’re gon na have three to five years of regulatory. Clarity where whereby i’m paid 30 jurisdictions are going to be working through how they feel about every single token – and i don’t know you can make money no doubt, but i i classified is as it’s like technology venture capital. It’S it’s an it’s either an investment like.

If you said it’s guaranteed, it’s it’s just as safe as apple. Then it’s an investment, but you know i wouldn’t uh. I wouldn’t recommend apple stock. You know it is an investment, even though it’s publicly traded an investment, or it’s like in this uh private zone, where it’s like vc, like uh, venture capital. It’S like it’s much riskier and there’s a much greater failure rate.

I mean the odds are not 95 percent likely. That apple goes out of business in a decade the odds are 95 likely that private companies go out of business in a decade or more. So no, i wouldn’t do that and what’s the speculation like you asked me about shib versus doge voices versus another dog coin. It’S like, like you, can make lots of money if you did great good for you, but it’s like you know, i’m not gon na recommend which football team you get. You know you bet on for the super bowl.

I i just don’t know, that’s not what i’m here for and, and i couldn’t in good conscience, uh make uh. You know a decent recommendation. I’D stand by yeah. No, i i understand – and i think history so far, even if it was only like a history of 15 months or whatever it, it proved you right, uh, already and um. I think we just talked about a potential 100x for bitcoin, who is asking for even more than that.

If this is now almost a certainty, maybe that we that’s something we can say who wants a 200x or 300x with like so much more risk involved? If you lose a 50 percent, you have to make 100 to get it back. If you lose 80 percent, you have to make five extra money to make it back, so just go with risk minimalization and i think bitcoin should be the best deal. That’S why i’m also exposed 80 in it um actually of my net worth so to speak anyways. Thank you very much.

That was insightful. Awesome, awesome interview, unfortunately not in my uh usual setup, I’m traveling myself, but i truly appreciate the time you put in um. Actually, what the people don’t know who are watching this? I already let you down on the 23rd of December, because i was so busy. Thank you so much for your understanding for coming back, and i hopefully see you very soon at the next one yeah thanks for having me, i always enjoy our conversations perfect.

Thank you and everyone watching like follow Michael share. The video do something good and spread. The word thank you. Bye,

via MICHAEL SAYLOR ON THE BITCOIN CRASH

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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Why I’m Selling Crypto

Been a bloody day on the cryptocurrency markets and, of course this is stemming from the stock markets and what the fed is doing, the recycled news around the inflation rating and then also interest rates, potentially rising so without further ado, let’s crack on with it smash the Like subscribe, if you haven’t already help that youtube algorithm out, 30 of you aren’t subscribed, let’s get that to zero okay, so the feds are looking to do lots of different things. Today, they’ve got a lot of news out on the digital currency report which has come through. We also have the omicron risk and then there’s also the monetary policy tightening as inflation ranges, this isn’t necessarily new. But of course, it’s affecting the stock markets like the nasdaq, which is heavily influencing the crypto market, both being technology. This is now down 11 from its all-time high.

We’Ve been looking at this and just recapping the price, for we were up at around five, three or so percent back here early the week and now we’re down at 11. Now, if we zoom out as we always do, we can see that we’re a long way from the low back in march of 2020. This is the major low one thing i want to point out from my experience. Major tops aren’t formed when the news is bad s. P 500 is looking very similar.

It’s also had a breakdown past its 50 level, but we have major support levels. So this is the macro view you want to be trading the macro market. The longer term time frames, so this can pull back to 4 000 even to three and a half thousand, and we’re still looking very, very pretty for the next stage of the move. Remember we have gone up since march 2020 to the peak in around january of 2022. This is for the stock market.

So it’s a very long time. The market has been going up with only minor corrections, and if we look at the correction, we’ve just had it’s very similar to what we had in late 2020 and the market continued on, not saying we’ll get that, but maybe we’ll get further but 2022. At least the first half is shaping up to be turbulent as a potentially profit-taking period, and also a re-accumulation period before we continue to move to higher grounds throughout this cycle. Remember our wall of worry markets are always climbing walls of worry. When there’s a lot of bad news, we get the dips, we get those by the dip opportunities and the markets continue up.

We go to a shorter term look here. We can see from 2009 to 2020, all of the times noted in or some major news items of when the market dipped, and we can obviously we obviously know now from history that the market continued up from that point down to the cryptocurrencies and fear, and greed Is at 19 today i dare say it’s going to be a lot lower tomorrow, after today’s crash and on bitcoin, we are trying to recover again so the opium side. We want to see bitcoin close, the weekly close above the previous low levels, and that was on the 10th of january at around 39 600. So if we can get a weekly close above that level, then this was just a fake out before we started to make higher ground now, that’s short term, and in order for the market to continue to building strength, to continue building strength, we want to see it Get back above this, these higher levels here, and these were set at about 42 to 44 000. Now it’s just the first or the second step.

The first step is getting back into the forty thousand dollar range. Then we have to start to stair step our way back to those previous higher levels to gain that ground. Now the downside to this is if we aren’t able to recover to that forty thousand dollar level and we get a lower high form before we head lower. All this is going to do is prolong the downtrend prolong. The bear market talked many times before, whether it’s a bear or a bull.

The money in your bank account doesn’t know whether it’s a bear or a bull. It doesn’t matter what matters is making profits getting in early and then selling on the way up or on the way down, provided you’re still in some profit or you’re. Protecting your position, that’s what’s going to matter at the end of the day, our job is not to buy the absolute lows and then sell the absolute tops. Our job is just to take a healthy chunk out of the middle, with your trading plan with your. If then statements, if the market breaks market structure market resistance, i will buy if market breaks down, i will sell and that’s what we were looking at with the members.

So you can see in patreon and premium links are down below it’s all. In the course looking at weekly swings and the market broke weekly the weekly swing at around 57

Now i’m not selling bitcoin or ethereum at those levels back in november and december, but i was selling a lot of altcoins and those posts are all in the members group which you can go back and have a look also talking a little bit about it. On the channel, but usually at extreme times the majority people don’t want to hear it. That leads me onto solana and cryptos, which i have been selling, and why solano is one that we’ve talked about on the channel looking to buy it, bought it in around that 25 to 30 range when the market was down. In may june july of 2021 market peaked.

You can see. This is really abnormal. I don’t want to be in the market when this is going on, or at least i’ll take it to sell some of my position, because the liquidity is extremely high, not that i’m going to move a market, but the market is quite high extreme at those points. In time, so that makes me fearful after i’ve been buying in when everyone else is fearful. So i mentioned that i sold some salina at about 160.

Doesn’T look so bad now, looking back four or so months, but as the market rises again to 200 and 250, then it feels a little bit crazy. But this is the whole point of trading. You don’t know that the market is going to go that much higher, but in terms of a percentage it was not very much at all. A percentage of 25 dollars to 160 is a lot better than buying in at around 130 and going to 260

There’S only 100, so the whole point is to make as much as you can, through the middle, with whatever knowledge that you have written down in your plan. Speaking of the plan 50 levels on macro time frames are areas that i do like to sell part all some of my position and for solana now down at 126.

It broke the 130. Even if this bounces, i still think longer term, maybe over the next few months, we’ll probably see some more downside because there’s just not much support for solana in this period, there’s a little piece right here, but there’s just not much support through this whole period. So i want to protect the profit that i’ve made on solana waiting for some more moves. There was plenty of signals to get out, but this is just what real trading happens. You might be far more strict and get out at some of your levels up higher.

The point being is that these are some times that i want to be selling out, and i’ve mentioned that to our members. Today, as i mentioned, you can see the links in the top of the description for patreon and to learn how to trade set up your own trading plans premium is down there as well. So this is a similar pattern that i’ve seen on a few cryptos today and i’ve sold out of some positions, especially as they break down from their major 50 levels, regardless of any little pumps. That might happen now, if the conditions change, if the market closes above the 50 and back into the zone, that it was uh in early january, then that’s one signal that the condition has changed. The next thing i want to see is a market then climb and break some previous highs.

The next thing is a retest of those highs, and so that’s going to give me a few signals for my plan to be able to re-enter those positions, regardless of if it’s higher from where i currently am because to the downside, i could lose a lot more To the downside than i could, if the market was to show some short-term signs of strength and give me a re-entry opportunity at a higher price, now, it’s not a call to get wrecked. It’S a call to do things safely and if you’ve been interested, go and check out michael’s channel, he has specific plans on how he has been trading. Leverage trading in the futures markets, not crypto, but in futures and now crypto for over the last 10 years, check it out. Links are down below found. Some value smash likes, subscribes, bell notification, icons, see you in the next video until then have more fun to get more done.

via Why I’m Selling Crypto

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cryptocoinguides · 3 years ago

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The Crypto Market – My Thoughts

What’S going on everyone, my name is nicholas merton here at datadash and today is january 21st of 2022.. Well, folks, i hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are and in today’s video i want to go ahead and do a little bit of a ramble session with you guys. I want to just talk one on one: no charts, no headlines. No major market analysis, you’re, just gon na, have to see my face and hear me ramble for a little while.

But i feel that if you can stick around it’s going to be a very valuable video for you guys, because i understand as much as the next person. It’S obviously not fun to see the markets doing what they’re doing 2022 for crypto markets has not been a clean start and it’s got a lot of people worried about the state of things and rightfully so it’s always difficult to get through difficult price action right. So i want to go ahead in today’s video to talk about three key things. I want to first spend some time to talk about what i’m doing, let my actions speak louder than my words and then outside of that as well. I want to spend some time to talk about short-term analysis, what expectations we should probably set into our minds, at least to keep things as conservative as possible and finally talk about the macro perspective, not just the long-term analysis for bitcoin and crypto, but really what’s going On in the dynamics of asset markets as a whole, including the stock market, etc, all right, so let’s go ahead and start with the obvious thing that is on everyone’s mind rightfully, so you might be asking yourself nick um.

What are you doing in the market right now? Are you buying? Are you selling? Are you more bullish or bearish, and also depending on where i am? What should i do well i’ll, go ahead and answer the question that is probably the most obvious.

What am i doing now for myself guys, i really haven’t been changing much, i’m still exposed to crypto heavier than any other asset on the planet and outside of that as well. The only real thing that i’ve done just for full transparency’s sake is, i have had to sell, like small fractions of my portfolio, but that’s been only either to cover like pretty much necessary expenditures or to pay for my quarterly or annualized taxes that i have to Pay being a u.s citizen and that’s always a joke that i get from people nick, did you move and stuff for taxes? No, i didn’t. I still pay my lovely u.

taxes always haven’t always will um, but that’s basically what i’ve been doing. I haven’t really changed. Much at all, i’ve just been passively going through the upswings and the downswings in the market, and, ironically enough, when i have to end up paying my my taxes for the annualized basis, i realize, like man, we’ve really come a long way since 2019. 2020. 2021.

Even though the new year isn’t off to a great start, we’ve had a lot of great price action. Now that may not be the case for when you started in the crypto market, or maybe, where you’ve really gone heavy in your investments. Maybe you went in heavier around the 40 50 60k range rather than where i’ve been, which is where you know. I really started building heavy positions back in 2019 and 2020 on top of the existing positions i already held, and i understand that, depending on when you got in the market, it can be really different right. I might be in a much more comfortable position where i can tolerate the volatility, but for you you might be 30 40, 50 down uh from your initial investment and maybe your first time investing in the market.

So i want to go ahead and just speak from experience in this case, because i’ve gone through pretty much any kind of phase. I’Ve been through many market cycles, i’ve traded and invested in different markets and i’ll tell you guys this. The key thing that you need to accept at the end of the day when you have a position in an asset as much as it is important to hedge, your wealth against inflation against. You know the devaluating purchasing of your dollars and also to look for alternatives. Other than just having your money in a savings account, you also need to assess and understand that there’s going to be excessive volatility in asset markets, especially emerging ones, that make heightened annualized returns like cryptocurrencies.

If you look at any cryptocurrency chart whether you’re looking at bitcoin ethereum, your favorite altcoin uh right, if you look at the established place in the market, they make up the majority of the market cap for crypto they’ve gone through excessive upswings and downswings, and you got To be willing to stomach those rallies and if you aren’t able to stomach them, it may not be that you’re, just not able to think straight in this case, don’t beat yourself up guys. Like i mean everyone is definitely going to be thrown off a bit, but what it could be telling of is that you may be overexposed to one specific asset. I think it’s uh, you know, i think it’s warren buffett. That said something i hate to. I hate to be that basic guy, like warren buffett, said, but honestly.

I think that warren buffett and many other successful investors have pointed to the fact that if you are in a position that you don’t feel comfortable being in for the foreseeable future for the next year, 10 years, um, you shouldn’t be holding it right and i wouldn’t Say that that’s entirely true in the world we live in nowadays, but if you don’t feel comfortable stepping away for a year at least or a couple of months in your position and not caring about what it’s doing on a day-to-day basis, you’re either short-term trading, which Most people are going to fail at doing over 90. Five percent of people will lose money in traditional markets. Trying to trade and uh worse off is that even if you’re able to make money, considering taxes, fees, etc, um you’re gon na probably still not make more than you would have long-term training. Only about one percent of traders, one to two percent – meet that category uh and second off. Maybe that you’re overexposed – and that’s probably the more obvious question um – is that whether or not you have too much exposure to the crypto market and as much as i always talk about you know, waiting and buying.

You know accumulating dollar cost to averaging buying the dip. Um, don’t over expose yourself and outside of that. Another important thing to take into mind is that, if you’re, really in the camp of people who’s been in the market since 2019 2020, there is nothing shameful or wrong about taking profits. If you have made life-changing returns and you’ve got family members and friends and things that you know things that you want to support and love and care for, and you know trips that you want to take and experiences that you want to go experience in the world That you wouldn’t have been able to do before. I think it’s completely rational to want to take profits.

You have every right to do that. It’S a buying and selling market. You can be on any end of the stick and yeah. Don’T let anyone shame you out of that position or make you feel about it and don’t get locked in the idea that i have to constantly accumulate assets, because this is going to lead me to talking about the short-term and long-term vision here, which is that all The while we are still confident as much as we’ve been calling for the short-term bearishness here, the idea that the market is going to come back down to the 30k support range. We’Ve talked about the idea that we will continue to rally up higher.

We are still likely in a bull market, but shortly after the close of 2022, i think, with the pressures we’re seeing from the inflation that we’re seeing in the united states that we’re seeing um and a variety of economies across the world. It’S not just in my little bubble in the u.s, it’s everywhere, that’s starting to feel the pain of inflation and the excessive money printing that had been going on in 2020 and 2021. I think we’re at a point where the fed – probably not here in the quarter, one of 2022, but probably into 2023. They are going to have to pull the switch and they’re gon na have to pull it hard.

And what i mean by that is that they’re going to have to stop the printing of excessive money, uh they’re, going to have to begin strict, quantitative, tightening and outside of that they’re also going to have to start leveraging interest rates back upwards quite heavily. I don’t know if it’s going to be something like paul. Volcker did back back a couple decades ago where inflation was out of control back in the 70s and 80s and basically, they levered up interest rates incredibly high to kind of stun the excessive credit in the market. But i digress that basically will mean if this happens. If the fed does make this move – which everyone, i think, is kind of fearful of it happening here in quarter one of 2822 – and i think it’s going to be more likely, uh 2023.

When that does happen, crypto stocks, you name it asset markets – will be in turmoil and they’re going to face a lot of pain and might enter into a substantial bear market. Not the 20 bear market definition, uh used by textbook economists when it comes to the stock market. I’M talking a 50 60 correction, a pretty bloody sell-off, the one that everyone says. Oh it’s always gon na happen and stuff uh, because the fed runs out tools. They only run out of tools when it comes to the point where inflationary pressures start to come into the economy, and it really starts to impact the physical economy.

If we didn’t have real inflation and there wasn’t such an outflow of capital from equity markets into the real world and the real economy buying goods and services, then we wouldn’t have such high inflationary pressures and the fed could just keep kicking the can down the road Asset prices could keep going up as long as they want, because the fed has unlimited printing capacity and they can keep interest rates near zero and for, however long they’d like until that inflation, air pressure comes up, and i think that’s what we’re seeing here on the Macro scale i mean in the in the body, administration, uh and the fed. The the pressure is is on here for something to happen in the next couple of months. The next year, uh, for you, know, there’d, be some kind of action and that is going to harm crypto markets. All those people who again uh use terminology like the super cycle or uh bitcoin, could easily go to to a million dollars or five million dollars in the next one or two years. Um.

Let’S just say folks, you shouldn’t be following people like that um. I think something rational, like 100k 150k 200k very doable in this cycle right having bitcoin at a four trillion dollar market cap is pretty doable for it to go to um. You know a million dollars, that’s uh, going to be asking in this case for a 5x multiple right from our our most optimistic projection. So 20 trillion dollar market cap give or take it’s just not going to happen uh. Unless again, the fan were to lose pace on hyperinflation, so anyways, i’m rambling a little bit.

What i want to get to here is this guys um again, don’t believe uh at the end of the day, that crypto is absolutely invincible and that it’s not able to succumb to volatility and market uncertainty. There is a very big problem that the market’s got right now, even though i don’t think it’s going to set us in a bear market um. Nonetheless, there is a lot of greed in the market. A lot of people who are over leveraged, who are not learning from previous mistakes because of the excessive greed and leverage that’s in the space right now, it’s going to make these volatile swings even more brutal than they were before and that’s why we’re getting much more Heavier mid-cycle corrections this time around than what we’ve got in previous cycles and we’ve got to adapt to those what’s great about it as well. Is that while other people are being greedy and getting liquidated in their positions, and if you guys have been in those shoes, i’m not insulting you here right, i’ve had to make mistakes.

I i leveraged traded in 4x markets. I’Ve seen how the exchanges they play against. You they know exactly that you’re going to fail, they can coordinate it, it’s like a casino and they have some of the best mathematicians right. I digress, though, the point of it is that while people are getting greedy and eventually getting liquidated, this allows us to have these great discount opportunities in the short term. And again, i would stick to my guns that hey, if i have some money that i’m willing to lose, i would definitely like to put in that position and take my odds and see if the market’s going to return up higher.

That’S the name of the game of assets, buy low, sell, high or hold it as long as you can afford to to avoid any tax liabilities and to just simply let your asset appreciate right. That’S the name of the game when it comes to asset markets, so yeah um, i i’ll say one thing guys and i do i do want to apologize about this, even though i i think you know to my best knowledge, i think we’ve been pretty accurate on Predicting what’s going to follow over the past couple weeks, i i don’t want to come here and be in a told you so attitude and i put out a tweet this morning and stuff um kind of explaining my rationale for the past couple months, going against the Grain people who were talking about the super cycle people were promoting leverage trading people who said that it’s just inevitable. That 40k is the new support. I i it is a little bit frustrating, but at the same time i want you guys to make that judgment call and i’m sorry if i’ve been uh a little bit um putting myself up on a pedestal in a sense of that. My opinion is just proof.

I mean it’s not i’ve made wrong calls in the past. I believe back in 2018 that we were going to rally up back past the all-time highs. I made like a couple bad calls over the years, but what i hope to do here on the channel is at least take a look back at my past and learn from my mistakes and it’s a problem that i see a lot of people struggle to do Themselves, which is to go back in the past and be like man, i made this call and it was totally off. What did i get wrong about it like, and maybe what can i learn from that mistake so that i don’t make the same mistake in the future and my whole rationale and why i’ve been beating it like a dead horse, which is this point about the in The short term things are just going to get worse for now, until they get better is because i’ve always rooted myself instead of conservative time from estimations and conservative price frame estimations and the reason why it’s better to be on that end of the stick and potentially Be proven wrong is because, unlike someone who sets really heightened expectations, and then is let down by those expectations heavily in this case, if i get blown away by my conservative estimations that i’m along the market, i’m happy right – it’s not just because of like hey. You know i wasn’t wrong on that.

No i’ll admit when i was wrong for sure, as we have on previous mistakes from in the past. But it’s nice to have your conservative estimations, be blown away on the upside and things be better off than you expected to be positively surprised, rather than negatively surprised, and i find that that’s the probably the biggest thing. It’S not so much the price estimations. But it’s the time frame, estimations and that’s why we’ve been big on the expanding cycles? It’S why we’ve been talking about having a longer term time frame understanding that these volatile swings are likely nothing more than mid-cycle corrections and as people, i think, will start to see as we revisit back down to the lower thirty thousand dollar range you’re going to be Hearing a lot of people talking about being a bear market this and that i wouldn’t listen to them.

I’D watch what the fed does and if the fed is making serious moves to initiate quantitative tightening that’ll. Give you your answer as to whether or not we’re going to bear market or not until then, until the fed stops talking and actually starts doing, i’m a believer in assets being the best place to be hedged and especially when i can get them at discounts, not At new all-time highs, where everyone’s claiming the super cycles inbound follow this one data science model, it’s full proof right. That’S not the kind of mindset that i want to establish within you guys, or at least share, as you guys are taking my opinion alongside many other people’s opinions out there. Now, if you’re crazy enough to have stuck around this long to hear me ramble, you deserve a gold medal. I appreciate it and i hope you guys again can look past any flaws that i might have i’m not perfect um and i don’t want to claim to be.

But at the same time, i really want the best for you guys and that’s why i’m you’re rambling in front of the camera, rather than going on about the next latest and greatest altcoin that you have to buy or uh here’s how you can use my buy Bit referral link, i don’t know guys anyways. I know it’s a rough time in the market to take this time to step away from the screen realize that a lot of times it’s short term go enjoy time with family with friends. Uh connect with other people in the crypto space have a good laugh share. Some memes enjoy the moments that you have here right now, rather than mourning on the potential gains you could have made by selling your crypto earlier on. The vast majority of us wouldn’t have done it back then, and in hindsight it doesn’t really add any benefit to think about what we could have done in the past.

More than anything you reflect on it, you’ll learn on it and you make the necessary adjustments going forward. It’S the only way we can turn failures into us, eventually succeeding in the future, all right, i’m rambled on enough. Thank you guys for listening today. If you like, this video consider dropping like subscribing hitting the bell icon and, most importantly, what really helps the channel out is the first video especially like this in a time like we’re in sharing it with family and friends. I think it’s something that we could all use right now, but nonetheless thank you all so much for watching and i’ll see you all in the next one take care everyone

via The Crypto Market – My Thoughts

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