daveandtrev

[daveandtrev]

The 2020 Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League write-up

Friends of the Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League, welcome. I am pleased (no really, I am excited) to bring you a breakdown of the AJSL as it blessed our lives in the one-of-a-kind year of 2020. Below you will find a mix of analysis and lighthearted fun aimed at taking a first pass at what the heckfire happened this year from start to finish. We’ve got analysis on the draft, injuries and schedule plus some fun awards to give out. I won’t buffalo you any longer, lets get to it.

Draft Day Analysis

Draft day analysis interpretation: I tried to objectively pick the best teams based on my personal draft rankings (subjective draft rankings, objective draft analysis…sort of follows?). Here’s the methodology: I assigned a value to every player for above average play (in 0.25 increments). It’s essentially five tiers (+0.0 = starter, but could be replaced; +0.25 = contributing starter; +0.5 = solid starter; +0.75 = strong starter that will create a positional advantage; +1.0 = elite starter providing a distinct positional advantage). This all makes sense in my head, and it should make more sense when you look at the table. I then added up points for each team’s best possible starting lineup according to my points system and voila; Dave Stark’s handicapping of the AJSL.

A couple of notes:

·       Players are listed in the positions as there were drafted, with highest spend creating the starting lineup. For my points system, I subbed in bench players if they had a higher value than the starter.

·       I cheated on Christian McCaffrey’s value: he was a +1.25 in my book. Clearly the best player in the game with even higher upside than the traditional studs.

A few things that turned out like I thought

·       The running QBs outside of Lamar (Dak, Kyler, Russ, and DeShaun all avg 22.0+ fantasy pts/gm and sit top 7 at QB)

·       The QBs at +0.0 (Baker, Carr, Danny Dimes, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy G basically ride the merry-go-round from one bye week fill-in to the next. Tannehill and Cousins maybe qualify as +0.25 players now, but neither averages over 20+ pts/gm)

·       Jonathan Taylor +0.0 (His value has been everywhere this year. Marlon Mack was the only reason I had him ranked this low. When Mack went down I pegged him for +0.75 with the possibility to go +1.0…and then nothing materialized until late into the year)

·       Devin Singletary +0.0 (Started hearing whispers of Zack Moss splitting carries + Josh Allen hogs goal line rushes)

A few places where I was dead wrong

·       Stefon Diggs +0.0 (Turns out, Josh Allen actually got better - +10% Completion % in 2020)

·       Josh Allen +0.5 (Averaging 24.7 pts/gm which would have been the QB2 overall last year by almost 3 pts/gm. Currently QB4)

·       Kyler Murray +0.75 (Not nearly high enough on him. Averaging 26.5 pts/gm as the QB1 overall. Playing at a +1.0 level)

·       DK Metcalf +0.25 (Seattle hired their lead chef to work full time)

·       Lamar Jackson +1.0, Mark Andrews +0.75 (Uhhh, why is this team broken?)

·       Kenyan Drake +0.75 (Beware the extravagant 8 game sample size that says someone is a world-beater)

·       Zach Ertz +0.75 (Is this the cliff year at 30 years old? How did Tony G catch 83 balls at age 37?)

·       Aaron Rod Gers +0.25 (Yeah he’s a +0.75 guy now…should have known that drafting the backup QB would light a fire under Aaron: we’ve only seen this from Alex Smith and Joe Flacco in 2 of the last 3 years…Wait, why hasn’t this applied to Wentz yet?)

·       Davante Adams +0.75 (Good golly, A-Aron’s resurgence means Davante is almost on +1.25 level when he is healthy)

·       Keenan Allen +0.25 (This was all about Tyrod…then we found out that Justin Herbert was interning specifically for Keenan Allen and the Chargers med staff decided to euthanize Tyrod)

·       TJ Hockenson +0.0 (2nd year leap puts him at TE3 overall. $20 player next year?)

·       Chris Herndon +0.0 (When you read too many draft articles, you begin to believe that an Adam Gase coached player might actually become an average contributor at his position…ha!)

Injury-ruined seasons

·       Saquon, Michael Thomas +1 (Biggest team-killers to date by far)

·       CMC at +1.25 (Still overall #1 when he plays)

·       Dak at +0.75 (Was playing like a true +1 on par with Mahomes before going down)

·       Zeke at +1 (Dak died and then Dallas decided to start “Gucci DiNucci”…yeah that didn’t go well)

·       OBJ +0.5 (Traded to Cristian’s team where he put up a combined 3.5 fantasy pts in 2 games started)

·       Courtland Sutton +0.25 (After space-cadeting Sutton’s auction bid, we got our “Ball don’t lie” moment a few weeks later. Trevor is shrugging as he reads this.)

 Great, let’s move on. Luck, imagined as either dice rolls or Luck Dragons depending on who you talk to, plays a pretty big part in fantasy success every year. Too many injuries? See you next year. Tough schedule? Hope for a good tiebreaker and maybe you can sneak into the playoffs with the #4 spot. These are probably the most talked about facets of the game since they are beyond our control and create the classic “if only I didn’t have that injury back in high school, i’d have crushed you guys” cop-out that we’ve all heard for years. Let’s see who really has a case to be upset, shall we?

Let’s start with one of my favorites – every team’s record if we played in a league where the top 6 scores secured a win each week (in lieu of head to head matchups). This is a much more “fair” look at how your team performed on a weekly basis when you throw out the schedule which is always a subject of scrutiny, consternation, and conspiracy theories each season.

There you have it. Good news is, the top 5 in our league standings would be the exact same top 5 if we played the other way. The schedule hasn’t defrauded anyone of a 2020 playoff spot. Bad news is, the bottom of this list is mildly shocking. Cristian has struggled all year for wins and this shows that his team hasn’t been half bad – but he has essentially lost out on 4 wins due to schedule. Yikes. Phil on the other hand was in playoff contention up until week 12, whereas his team has the fewest expected wins in the league….Of course for those with conspiratorial thoughts, you’ll notice the Stark brothers combine for +7 “lucky” wins due to schedule. Of course the Stark wife had to bite the bullet to make it look fair (-2 “lucky” wins). I’ll let everyone digest that and make their own judgments. (Where is that clause in the constitution involving starting a new league without the commish? This is evidence!)

The next “luck metric” that dominates our chat conversation and generally elicits “I got screwed, feel bad for me” self-pity arguments would be games lost to injury. Everyone knows it sucks and everyone experiences it to some degree every year. And if you play long enough, you will get hit by the double ACL tear/broken collarbone/never-healing ankle injury to all of your star players and be left at a severe disadvantage. It’s gonna be okay Sport, put on a brave face and hit the waiver wire. Come back next year and clap secretly at 3pm on Monday when Schefty tweets the next guy’s RB1 season-ender. (After the large exhale that it didn’t happen to your RB1 of course.) Ending rant, just know that if you experienced the injury season from hell, the rest of the league knows that it’s part of the fantasy business and are very relieved that it didn’t happen to them. Empathy runs high, sympathy runs low. (And I just removed my ability to ever complain publicly about my team’s injuries by writing this now.)

After all the talk has subsided, let’s check facts. First table: mid-game injuries. These are games where players play a much reduced role and typically produce dreadful fantasy finishes. There’s a bit of subjectivity here (if a player plays 3 quarters and gets hurt, I don’t count that as a mid game injury. But if he plays ½ or less of his normal playing time, it would count.) I also add mid-game benching to QBs because they fit the description as fantasy wreckers due to an unforeseen cutback in playing time. Here is the Commissioner’s official list:

Congrats on that title Jason, I know you were hoping for it. Just know, you weren’t THAT far ahead of the rest of us. Mon and Trevor on the other hand can only blame poor performance on their season’s disappointments (or better yet, the schedule!)

So I buried the lead a bit on Mr. Montgomery here, because the next table should give him his share of justice on 2020 injuries.

So the above list is missed games + mid-game injuries for drafted starters and traded players updated through week 13 (except for those with season long injuries – I went ahead and added week 14 there). Jason, there’s your proof. Nobody deserves to bellyache more than you, friend. 19 of those games were from QBs (Dak/Jimmy G) which added to a smattering of missed games from the rest of the roster (Godwin 4, Ridley 3, Aaron Jones 2). I haven’t tracked this before, but I imagine that this year was significantly worse than others (more soft tissue injuries and COVID positives were the biggest culprits.) The hope is that 2021 gives us a bit of a reprieve here.

Before we conclude, I recognize that there is a portion of the audience who prefers the entertainment value of this yearly endeavor, so I’m going to do my best to hand out a few fun awards. Without further ado, the 2020 AJSL Dundees (this award style hasn’t possibly been overdone, right?)

Dundee to The Scorned Lover: Mr. Jordan Swavely on behalf of Henry Ruggs.

While I wrote this tribute in his farewell on the group chat, it bears repeating: 7 pts or less scored by Ruggs in 6 straight games, starts him again for a 7th week and only a 50 yard bomb on the last play of the game saves Ruggs from another 3 point performance. Totaling the points for those 7 starts, Ruggs scored 36 points for a 5.1 average. Ruggs averaged 3.4 targets/gm in these contests. You do you, Swave. Go and get your man.

Dundee for the Best Team Name: Mr. Greg Poelman, ShlongBarry Sanders

Any reference including a dong and our beloved college town is going to score high on both the Dude and Nostalgia scales. Plus a Barry Sanders nod, we like that.

Dundee for the Best Team Picture: Mrs. Monica Stark on behalf of Presidential Security

Any time you can get combine Greg Poelman and The Donald in Photoshop and it doesn’t even look that fake, you have my attention and affection. And now you have a Dundee to go along with it. Well done.

Honorable mention: Monica’s Team, Bring Out Your Dead

Golden Tickets to the Winning Waiver Warriors: Mr. Scooter Nelson, James Robinson; Mr. Blake Grundy, Justin Herbert; Mr. Jack Holmer, Justin Jefferson

Since everyone is bidding for the “winning lottery tickets” of the waiver pool, we’re going to give out Golden Tickets to those that struck waiver wire gold this season. Scooter milked 11 starts out of Robinson who averaged 17.6 pts/gm during that span. Robinson has been the RB4 overall since the week 2 pickup. Grundy picked up Herbert for week 3 and never looked back, banking 10 starts at 22.5 pts/gm (He’s the QB7 in that time frame). Holmer nabbed Jefferson before Week 4 and was rewarded with the WR4 from that point on. Impressively he only benched him once, refusing to play him against his beloved Bears. This is the dream of every late Tuesday night and you guys reaped the spoils. Well done, gents.

Dundee to the Wounded Wavier Warriors: Mr. Phil Stark, Devonta Freeman; Mr. Jack Holmer, Darrell Henderson; Mr. Trevor Allison, Nyheim Hines

Big money, No whammy. That’s the goal. Of course more times than not, the reality is…more like this. Phil emptied out the pocketbook early on in the season after the Saquon injury to grab his replacement with a winning bid of $78 on Devonta (next highest bid: $15). Devonta responded with five games played, two of which resulted in 1 point showings. Then he followed Saquon to IR and Soape picked up the true workhorse of the Giants backfield in Wayne Gallman, who hasn’t pickup up less than 10 points in six straight games. Ouch. It took $54 to secure the rights to Darrell Henderson after week 2, seemingly the new Rams lead RB. Unfortunately Jack’s faith manifested at the wrong times: 5 starts of Henderson yielded 6.3 pts/gm, while Henderson’s two strong games (18.5 and 20.3 pts) were enjoyed on Holmer’s bench. Not fun. $46 was the bid that beat out 7 other bidders after week 1 for Nyheim Hines’s services, after which Trevor was rewarded with 5 straight games of 8 points or less. After cutting him loose over the bye week, Hines busted out for four double digit games in six tries, music no doubt to Trevor’s ears. A Dundee for your troubles, boys.

The “Fantasy Football Was A Lot More Fun Last Year” Dundee: Mr. Cristian Driver

For every obvious reason. Where did that championship belt get to?

Dundee for a Fun and Easy Season: Mr. David Stark

Injuries, COVID surprises, bad schedules, underperformance? Didn’t seem that big of a deal to me.

Dundee for Most Attempts to Defeat a Hornet’s Nest: Mr. Jason Montgomery

Similar to our favorite Office handyman Nate, Jason was tasked with eliminating the danger of his crumbling fantasy season created by the aforementioned injury bug. Both hailing from the historically-rich metropolis of “La Philadelphia”, what ensued after Jason’s 4-0 start pairs Nate and Jason together even further. Jason utilized a league-high 20 unique waiver pickups that entered the starting lineup this season. Results were bleak; the fast start was followed by a 2-7 record that signaled victory to the opposition. Maybe try the bow and arrow next time?

Receiver Corps Dundee of Excellence: Mr. Joel Soape

It only took 3 name changes to figure out which WR was needed (Red Solo Kupp -> Mike’d Up -> The Adams Bomb) , but Soape finally landed on the right guy for the job by calling on Davante Adams and his 22.1 pts/gm this year (easily the WR1 in this metric). Somehow Corey Davis (left for dead after last year) has had a career resuscitation on this team as well, dropping a 30 burger in week 12. The Receiver Corps salutes your dedication to their fraternity, Mr. Soape.

That’s all for now guys. Full disclosure, I have another 1k-2k words written that takes a deep dive into each of our performances at 1) waiver pickups, 2) positional scoring, and 3) sit/start decisions. Maybe this would be most helpful for a post-season article as it encompasses your overall strategy and ability to aid your team’s output. Look for that at some point in the future. For now, I hope you enjoyed this meaty entrée. Thanks for another great season and allowing me to bring you another fun recap, everyone!

[daveandtrev]

How the heckfire did we get here? A journey into the 2019 Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League

To my collegiate brood who has become like family, to my partners in weekend rendezvous, to my loyal participants in chatting about all things sports – this article is a labor of love for you. Every year I get coerced into preparing another one of these but this year not a single inquiry. Perhaps the luster of this treatise has worn off, or perhaps we assumed it was inevitable – Dave would eventually wander his way into his cold, dark fantasy football laboratory and emerge with a new concoction of thoughts on the AJSL that he would be eager to spill in a few thousand words. If the last assumption was yours, well then you know your commissioner well. And in the end, this piece. My hope remains to both educate and entertain.

To let you into the mind of your commissioner, I view each season as a journey that bears a resemblance to all journeys. Hopeful sojourners equipped with all that they can carry in hopes of future glory. Along the way, pitfalls and roadblocks (injuries, underperformance) threaten the journey’s success and oftentimes we require a bit of help from unforeseen resources (waiver claims, trades). After many weeks, the landscape seems foggier – where again did we start? Where has the journey detoured from expectation, both in triumph and in defeat? Therein lies the premise of this endeavor: to grasp, understand, and wrestle through in order to get our heads around each season’s “happenings”. We know we will encounter humility and perseverance (by this point all of our best laid plans have been altered). I’m sure we will find a stroke of genius or two to keep our spirits high. And you can count on biased interpretation from a guy whose authority is summed up by “I spend a lot of time thinking about this”. Thrilling. With that, come and explore the highlands and the low country with me. Let’s open together the tome of the 11th edition of the Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League.

With the stage set, allow me to redirect you towards the stats, candid thoughts, definitive (hindsight) analysis and forward looking predictions that can only come from yours truly. Please react accordingly with nods and smiles. Lets take a look at my post-draft thoughts for context on where we thought this year would be headed from the journey’s inception. (Or at least close to inception – with our late draft, I formed the basis of these thoughts after week 1. So I did have a single data point to go by).

Tier I - The Julio Jones tier

As its namesake implies, I projected the teams in this tier to consistently perform above average while also maintaining “Joe Flacco in the playoffs” elite upside on any given week. As you can see, this does not include my own team. You know what that means -> “If you don’t like your own draft…”

Cristian

Phil

Tier II - The Matt Stafford tier

The talent is there. The ability is never in question. And most of the time, the job gets done. Are you excited about Stafford, either as a Lions fan or a fantasy owner? Sort of? I expect a decent performance with ups and downs along the way when im cheering on Stafford. And he’s the perfect description of my expectations for this tier. Above average in spurts, but right around average in the long run.

Soape            

Trevor

Grundy

Dave

Tier III - The Peyton Hillis and Trent Richardson memorial tier

Before you dismiss the tier names and remember the downfall of these careers, first remember that both had studly seasons as members of the Browns. Hillis finished as the RB2 in 2010, Richardson as the RB8 in 2012. Its just that neither could find consistency over their careers and ultimately sputtered out without tasting prolonged glory. That’s the fear with these teams. We know any team can pop off for 150+ points, but can these teams hit 120 consistently? I have my concerns.

Scooter

Jack

Swave

Jason

And really, when we go back to careers like Trent and Peyton’s and remember that it was indeed the Browns that squandered such promise, let’s remember the wisdom that our tallest leaguemate passed out like a life preserver on draft night: The Browns, the Factory of Sadness themselves, will surely, inevitably, Browns. (Jason -> You may consider asking for this shirt for Christmas. I want to make sure you are clear on this during the next year’s draft.)

Let’s dig into the strengths for each team on draft day:

Tier I - The Julio Jones tier

Tier 3 RB’s

When you see Phil Stark make the championship, you go after the guys that got him there. Cristian pounced on 2018 stalwarts Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, keeping them tied together for consecutive years. The next idea was to pack a bunch of mid tier RBs onto the squad and hope that one or two would differentiate. Or maybe better stated, the plan was hoping Chris Carson would fall in price as a result of never nominating him. In the meantime, he would purchase 3 contingency plans. Cristian wisely used the mid-draft break to gather his thoughts and recognize his hole at RB, determining to have at least two of Carson, Jacobs, Michel and Freeman. He bagged all 4, culminating in Carson for $18 late in the proceedings. This was a strategy that I suggested to Monica last year, resulting in a backfield of Jamaal Williams, Jay Ajayi, Alex Collins, and Lamar Miller. That turned out poorly, but I think the method has some merit and I was intrigued to watch this experiment get its second trial.

As for insurance on his receiving studs, Will Fuller and Dede Westbrook were two of my favorites. Nick Foles is known to love targeting slot receivers and Fuller is practically automatic when healthy with DeShaun. Even his backup (to the backups) at RB (Devin Singletary) seemed to be the starter on a run-first team when LeSean McCoy was released, further insulating the running back fortification that had been built up. Depth was not going to be an issue at RB or WR.

Moving on, TE was going to be a challenge, though Cristian had snagged Mark Andrews after week 1 and I figured he would plug the gap if Vance McDonald couldn’t. (As we know now, he could’t).

Probably the biggest change between draft night and my thoughts after Week 1 occurred with Cristian’s quarterbacks. Sitting next to him on draft night, I know he believed he overpaid for his QBs when Lamar and Kyler started going for less than Dak and Brady. As we flipped to Week 1, we saw that the rumors of Kellen Moore’s influence were manifesting almost instantly and that Brady was about to import Antonio Brown for week 2. Unreal. The two unexpected studs at QB catapulted my prediction for this team all the way to the top.

The Michael Scarns

America’s favorite boss is commemorated every year in the AJSL and typically gets a draft day listing towards the bottom as my flesh and blood juxtaposes right brain creativity with my left brained desire for structure. Not the case this year – Phil’s team was an early favorite of mine.

Grabbing onto a top-2 RB is a great way to set up your team’s upside. Then grabbing Melvin Gordon’s potential fill-in looked like a great step 2, especially after a Week 1 where Ekeler ceded hardly any work to Justin Jackson. (We weren’t certain what that split would be on draft night). Marlon Mack had limitations (doesn’t catch passes, maybe needs Andrew Luck to keep the offense on schedule?), but $5 was an easy price to pay to find out more.  And I liked Guice as a great late round candidate – he’s a talent-heavy back who was ticketed for primary work.

I saw upside coming out in spades with the QB choices – apparently only Phil was paying attention last year when Josh Allen was the QB2 from week 12 onward. $1 to see if he could run it back? Wow. (And yes, I snagged Jameis for $2 myself, brain fart for punting on Allen’s rushing upside). Kyler Murray is someone I liked a lot for his role in captaining Kliff’s new offense and his rushing ability that we had all heard about. This pair cost $6. Would you be surprised to see this duo combine for 80 points during a week? Tremendous Upside Potential.

The receiving room of Evans, Diggs and Cooper boasted plenty of star power and the aforementioned Kellen Moore effect made Cooper look even better after his week 1. The Vikes commitment to ground and pound had me concerned about Diggs volume (not his talent), and he was my pick to share the flex spot with Mack. Picking up John Brown late seemed like a great complement to sling-it-deep Josh Allen’s tendencies and I liked him to spot start during good matchups. I haven’t even mentioned former Antonio Gates caddie Hunter Henry playing with known tight end lover Phil Rivers. Even with his injury in Week 1, Phil’s early pickup of TJ Hockenson figured to fill that gap and potentially give Phil a dilemma when Henry returned.

Tier II - The Matt Stafford tier

Goffam City

With our team moving from 12 to 10 teams this year, we essentially added 28 players back into the player pool (16 rosterable players – D/K = 14 players * 2 teams). This boosts the floor of all teams to where there are so few holes on rosters. In this scenario, grabbing studs is even more important as they are the rare differentiators. I really like grabbing as many as you can on draft night and Joel did his best work here, nabbing Julio, James Conner, and Alvin Kamara (all while contemplatively swirling his whiskey). You really need to hit on your surrounding talent when you go for the studs-n-scrubs approach, and I thought Sammy Watkins and Duke Johnson were affordable pieces who could develop into plus starters as the season went on. Dante Pettis had the potential of a rising sophomore who was being treated strangely in camp (not running with the 1s in preseason games) but had the tools and pedigree (2nd round pick) to succeed here too.

Trey Burton wasn’t on my radar, but Jared Cook figured to be a new toy for Drew Brees. I liked having both options available. Quarterback projected to be solid if not spectacular with Goff and Russell, and I liked their affordability overall ($9 combined). Russell’s Seahawks were expected to be run heavy which would supposedly cap his upside. But as Joel (smartly) gathered, Russell Wilson is very good. At a $3 price tag, the rest of the league didn’t want to find out if Russ could overcome his circumstances (and we know how that turned out.)

Overall, I figured a few of these role players would pop to support the studs and position this team right behind the elite.

That’s My QB

Coming in costume on a mission to re-establish the formula of previous glory, Trevor handled sticker duty while deftly selecting top tier passing game options. Unsurprisingly, Trevor landed Keenan Allen at the top of his draft board, selecting the Chargers receiver for the 4th straight year. He also snapped the author’s own streak of AJ Green selections at three years by nabbing the injured Bengal for $15. The question was “How much would he cost?” for Trevor regarding Travis Kelce – the end result was never in doubt. Previous tight end connoisseur Monica was not present to make Trevor sweat, but her parting instruction on my leaving for draft day was stated clearly. “Make him pay up”. I feel like $38 was enough to do her proud. Godwin, Edelman, and Woods were added to create a super stable of receivers while also creating a likely mid season trade with a running back heavy team. (This is Trevor’s team, so readers will understand that I liked all of these players. #MandateForever).

Trevor treated running back like Cristian did if Cristian spent $10 less on everyone. The only luxury was Tevin Coleman (who wrecked his ankle after week 1). James White at $8 was my favorite selection – we know he’s got a solid 10 point floor and can add more if the other New England backs go down. Miles Sanders intrigued me as well – if Philly were to move away from their RBBC, Sanders would be the likely beneficiary.

Finishing up at QB, Lamar Jackson at $6 was good value on draft day and Week 1 showed us his upside immediately (and that Baltimore was going to be able to throw, which was still a guess on draft day). QBs who run have upside, period. Lamar runs a lot. Personally I always get a little queasy on guys like that holding up (I’ve been burned by RG3 and Kaepernick before) but $6 is so little risk, especially with guaranteed QBs on waivers.

Overall, this team was a running back away from jumping up to the next tier.

Coach Davis All Stars

Taking a page out of Phil Stark’s book in continuing to honor a beloved icon with his team name (as you can see, Phil Stark = trendsetter), the 5th iteration of the Coach Davis All-Stars hoped to finally launch Grundy into Diamond status on Yahoo and land him his first AJSL championship (Lord knows he’s due). With his whiskey in one hand, Grundy went toe to toe with the aforementioned Phil Stark to battle for the rights to Odell Beckham, culminating in an intimate staring-while-bidding contest. While the rest of us shifted uncomfortably in our seats, Grundy secured his man for $50, holding a different view from Cristian on what the Browns were about to do this year (cue Raybon). Following that bet was what I ended up pining over post-draft: the Dave Johnson/Dalvin Cook combination at running back. Punch drunk from a 5 hour adrenaline rush, I stumbled to the draft board knowing that this combo was going to absolutely work over the league. I envied silently and then shared my plight with a few passer bys, realizing once more why Grundy has the win percentage that he does. Great picks, friend.

How does this team land in this tier after my man crush on the running backs? Welp, I had reservations on Tyler Lockett (Russell may not throw much and Lockett wasn’t always emphasized last year even when Baldwin went down – his stats were good but he survived on deep balls and caught almost all of them. We know that doesn’t typically repeat in subsequent years.) While I liked Engram fine, I wondered who else would step up in the flex? MVS had talent but uncertain opportunity. I was 100% done with Donte Moncrief when he couldn’t perform with Andrew Luck (I bid $22 in 2016 for his services, still salty). Everyone else was a $1 flier. The flex can be an easy hole to fill if you nab a waiver pickup, but it’s a holeI downgrade for in post draft rankings (this essentially also means your depth is lacking).

With Rodgers a stud but Ryan a question mark for me (look at his previous years, dude finished QB15 in 2017 and QB18 in 2015. Not convinced he would be more than average despite spike years finishing QB2 in 2016 and 2018), I placed this team in the middle of the pack, content to wait for answers in my areas of concern. (Those running backs are still beautiful though, especially this guy).

WinningStreakToSAGA

Welp, here’s my draft day assessment. Dave, congrats - You aren’t in the Browns tier. But let me tell you, there’s going to be a hill to climb. At least we came up with a team name by week 4. Oh yeah, we threw a kick ass draft party too. Chin up, pal.

I came into this draft wanting to go heavy running back and was delighted to find my old friend Zeke Elliot available for a discount (had him going for $50+) with his contract situation in the air. Things sort of got hazy when I ended up with Melvin Gordon (thought he was worth $20 and grabbed him for $13) and then decided to run it back with Pat Mahomes. (Some had questions here – I think the elite QBs become worth the expenditure at some point and Pat Mahomes was the surest elite QB we’ve seen in a while. He ended up going for $30 which comes out to player #24 overall or a 3rd round pick in traditional snake draft. That’s where he was going in a 1 QB league, and we start 2….Really though, I was wearing his jersey and the allure of prior glory could not be overcome in the heat of the moment.)

I then made my big gamble on Juju, and as I’ve shared on the group text, this was prompted by that one article you read a day before the draft that comes back to mind as a player is being bid. I’ve done plenty of second guessing here, but my biggest lesson (as seems to always pop up) is to go over your plan before the draft. Read it and read it again. Know where you can take risks, and know where you want to attack. During the draft, there’s too much stimuli to reliably adjust on the fly.

Hilton was a calculated risk (we know his talent is good), Fournette was a calculated risk (we know his opportunity will be good), OJ Howard was on purpose and I perceived low risk. DJ Moore was a steal in my opinion as he was coming on last year with Cam. I was fine with Jameis, but was a bit sad I didn’t pick up a running QB with prices as low as they were.

Overall, tons of risks (Zeke, Gordon, Hilton, Fournette) and not enough real substance to bank on. I felt like I had undervalued assets, but I needed most of them to pan out to be successful. If not, disaster loomed.

Tier III - The Peyton Hillis and Trent Richardson memorial tier

Bob Kraft’s Day Spa

Scooter advertises his friendship with Bob Kraft in promoting his leisure activities, remembering the good ol’ days of R&R with Robert by his side. Classy.  

Lets start with what we like. I liked the aggressive nature at QB and both of these guys fit as upside plays  – Wentz has been reliable when healthy and was importing known QB-elevator DeSean Jackson. DeShaun had been suggested by some (including my beloved Evan Silva) as the overall QB1 over even Mahomes, citing his rushing upside and return of weapons . I like going QB heavy in the right situations when the league has decided that they aren’t as valuable. (As my Pat Mahomes pick suggests). George Kittle was a stud last year and figured to carry that over with the 49ers failing to establish a #1 WR in training camp. I viewed him as a differentiator at TE.

Antonio Brown highlighted the skill players (he was only in the middle of his diabolical plan to exit Oakland at this point) which was potentially a nice get but had its own question marks (new team, QB who typically throws short, weird preseason injuries/behavior). Kupp, Alshon, and Boyd were all fine but didn’t move the needle for me. Same with the Kerryon/Dame Williams combo at RB. And same with the depth (Fitzgerald/Marvin/LeSean/Lindsey). I didn’t see many holes on this team but I wasn’t sure where the upside was coming from. Kerryon was the best bet to smash followed by LeSean (great grab for $1) in my opinion.

Overall, the lack of high end skill players was my biggest concern for this team.

Da Bear Necessities

Jack Holmer went straight back to my childhood in the early 90s with his recollection of a Jungle Book classic, celebrating the simplicity of living as a predator in a tropical forest. “The Bear Necessities will come to you”. Words to live by, my friend.

Mike Thomas and Le’Veon Bell were the headliners of this draft class, and while Thomas’s domination is without question (never finished below WR10 on a per-game basis in his career), Le’Veon’s new situation was a bit murky (Would he get touches like he did in Pit? Would his O-line and QB help him like they did in Pit? RBs generally transition to new teams easier than WRs, but the Pit situation is unique for RB production) Assuming Le’Veon could pass those tests, the remaining core of Kenny Golladay, Mark Ingram and Joe Mixon gave this team firepower from every angle. Even better for Kenny G when we found out Matt Stafford intended on throwing the ball deep after Week 1. Ingram’s Ravens looked like world beaters themselves and showed that RBs attached to running QBs always have a place at the top of fantasy scoreboards. Mixon’s role also had potential growth under new coach Zac Taylor who was intending on implementing Rams concepts in Cincinnati.

Gallup was another who looked like a steal after Week 1 and I definitely liked the potential of Christian Kirk in that 4-wide AZ offense. Dave Montgomery was a luxury that could be waited on to contribute and Sutton and waiver pickup McLaurin also showed early promise. The skill positions looked above average right from the get go here.

Unfortunately for me, that’s where my optimism ceased. Darnold and Trubisky weren’t getting it done for me, and neither was perennial borderline-starter Austin Hooper. This team was the inverse of Scooter’s (who was strong at QB and TE) and I felt deserved to be ranked at the same level. Upside was probably easier to see here, but the holes were also more glaring.

Daniel and the Shew

This name would have made zero sense on draft day – more appropriately this team could have taken on Benjamin Feels the Brees as its moniker (though Yahoo’s character limit would have probably stopped the idea cold). Big Ben and Drew Brees gave Swave the oldest combination of quarterbacks and with both known for their home game prowess (and road struggles), they figured to mix in spiked weeks with untimely duds. Over the long haul, I expected average production with an acknowledgement of week winning upside under the right conditions.

CMC was the big haul and I loved Swave’s guts to go big here, spending a league high $59. No sense in leaving money on the table – and we know from Swave’s history that he likes to accumulate depth late in the draft. This was a pristine move for someone who likes to stock his bench – make sure you have at least one warhorse to supplement your depth. Well done here.

Flanking CMC was Aaron Jones and Adam Thielen, both with question marks (will Aaron Jones be a bellcow and will Minnesota ever pass?) but are clear top end talents when utilized well. I liked Cooks as a consistent play and didn’t mind the Josh Gordon/Calvin Ridley combo to fill the flex. I guessed he wouldn’t find many holes in his receiver unit, though I did wonder how much top end production we would see.

Derrick Henry rounded out the RB room and although I’m not crazy about his lack of pass catching, I liked his price ($7) as Swave could count any contribution from Henry as a bonus (and we know that Henry can go off). Lets all do ourselves a favor and watch the best run of 2018 unfold once more, this time with additional commentary. (Seriously, required watching).  

Njoku and Ebron were going to duke out the TE position, and frankly, that’s a formula for a $20 tight end claim come week 1.

Overall, this team was CMC + a bunch of promising parts. I will say this about Swave’s previous teams – he typically is able to mine a gemstone out of his depth by the time the season ends. I believed that this would need to happen once again in order for his path to victory to truly open up this season.

WeAllRammedIntoDaPit

You knew this one was coming. But let’s keep on this roll and reminisce a bit more. After living in Indiana for 3 years, the existence of Pawnee is not a stretch for the imagination (testify, Trevor).

As with other teams taking on the moniker of unfortunate events, winning fantasy weeks can be a bit more of a challenge than initially forseen. (Ex: defeatedseason #G1, 5-9 final record. Duck Attack, 2-12. The Schiano Stink, 6-8. CelektnNameErtzMyHed, 4-10. Of course we had the declining HurricaneScooter that ended up as a rainshower (lost first 11 games) before regaining its strength with three late season wins. I can find one positive outcome – the Butt Fumbles of 2013 went 11-3 and made the championship game.) Hence, I needed to see overwhelming evidence of burgeoning breakout players in order to feel confident in predicting season-end success.

We learned a valuable lesson on draft weekend: The Pit, even when its presence is known, will still rise up and take its prey the moment you let your guard down. Tyreek Hill, established stud of Jason’s squad playing for the high-flying Chiefs, succumbed to the Pit of Misery, breaking his collarbone during week 1 and setting up an extended absence that really left this team shorthanded. After Tyreek, I had a hard time envisioning upside. Gurley had a chronic knee issue, Chubb was a 2 down back in 2018 rumored but not assured of gaining passing down work, Zach Ertz faced stiffer competition for targets with DeSean coming to town, Allen Robinson played for a Bears team that’s known for spreading targets around, Jarvis Landry had incoming target competition from OBJ, Desean Jackson was changing teams, Jordan Howard had busted before and Kenyan Drake had never been a featured back. Now to be fair, many of these players had paths to upside and consistency but I had questions about most.

My favorite picks were Cam Newton, who continues to create rushing-based upside, and Curtis Samuel who I liked to take a step forward this year as one of Cam’s two primary targets along with DJ Moore. Baker didn’t run much last year so his upside was tied to his offensive scheme and his pass catchers. I figured he’d be about average with a path to a strong season if the OBJ connection took off.

Overall, I felt like this team really needed to hit on quite a bit of its 50/50 players and get a speedy recovery from Tyreek in order to emerge alive from the pit.

 Now that we are sufficiently anchored – where have the last 8 weeks taken us? Well for starters, the Bills are in prime wildcard position and the 4-12 Niners of 2018 are undefeated. The ship named “What we thought we knew” has been rocked. The remaining fallout is a muddied combination of 1) exactly what we expected and 2) typical unforeseen NFL chicanery. Of course this has trickled down to our fantasy scoring - look at this TE scoring list. Half of the top 10 were undrafted! And look who’s on top!

Lets get a handle on what each AJSL team is likely thinking going forward. (All ppg figures reference ppg while starting that player)

I like my odds of getting to the dance

The Michael Scarns: 140 ppg – Currently in the driver’s seat with 7 wins, The Scarns rode an unbelievable start by Austin Ekeler and a scintillating trio at the WR position (ranking #2 in the league for points at the WR1, WR2, and Flex postions) to pole position. Oh yeah, those ranks include only 2 weeks of recently-acquired Julio Jones. Gees. I expect both of the running quarterbacks (Kyler and Josh Allen) to have a few more spiked weeks and the return of Hunter Henry to boost this team’s floor even higher (currently ranked 8th in TE scoring). This is clearly the team to beat.

Coach Davis All-Stars: 144 ppg – Grundy leads the league in expected wins – weeks scoring above 130 – at 6 (I explain this a bit more below). Best case scenario Dalvin Cook has emerged as the consensus RB2 overall, averaging 22.3 ppg with 6 of 8 games over 20 points. The bedrock of Coach Davis’s finest is supported by a consistent QB duo (Rodgers and Ryan have Grundy pulling down the 2nd most combined QB points at 42.4 ppg), Dave Johnson (hoping he gets healthy again – Grundy is #2 in RB1 points) and Even Engram (11.3 ppg). The Browns have been a mess for OBJ (10.7 ppg – essentially turning him into a flex play) – if that gets straightened out, the Scarns may find themselves with competition.

I have the tiebreaker locked up, but I am terrified that I may not win enough games

Tier 3 RBs Patriots Defense: 140 ppg – Cristian finally got the team name right. The biggest defensive storyline in my memory has been impossible to compete with. The Scarns are 2nd in the league in defensive scoring at 9.6 ppg. Cristian is 1st in league scoring at 20.4, including 23.3 ppg with the Pats D (Cristian scored 0 defensive points in week 1!). Incredible – the Pats D has performed like a #1 defense plus a flex player (Flex average is 10.6 points across all teams). Unfathomable. Maddening to Jack, Grundy and myself who were outbid for their services in week 2. Elsewhere, the QB combo is solidly above average (ranking 3rd in QB1 and QB2 scoring) and Hopkins/Adams haven’t played close to their potential, signaling additional upside. RB2 has to get better (9th in scoring), though figuring out who to play between Sony Michel, Devonta Freeman and Devin Singletary has been an adventure thus far. This will start to improve and with the 2nd most points secured, Cristian really just needs the schedule to participate in order to secure a playoff berth.

2019’s guy getting screwed by the schedule

That’s my QB: 134 ppg – Ive estimated each team to have “earned” a win by scoring 130 points (typically this is 120, but the 10 team format seems to have inflated that number). That’s my QB has faced a team scoring 129 or more each of the first seven weeks until mercifully drawing Soape’s surrender squad in Week 8. Nobody else is even close to this mark - Cristian leads the rest of the league with five opponents putting up that many points, but everyone else is at 4 or less. So not only has Trevor seen plenty of points scored against his team, but its been a steady onslaught. The guy has put up 5 performances worthy of a victory himself (2nd only to Grundy, tied with Cristian) and has only won 3. Yeah. Here’s to friendlier shores, my friend.

Team wise, Lamar Jackson is insane at 25.8 ppg, QB1 overall. Mahomes finished at 27.1 last year (if my memory serves me), this is getting close to that level. Trevor leads the league in flex scoring (thanks, Edelman) and is 2nd at TE. The kicker is the kicker – Trevor sits in 10th here as well as RB2, the land of James White and Miles Sanders. That will likely putter on for a bit more, a chink in the armor that Trevor hopes will be overcome by Kennan Allen’s return to form and/or Travis Kelce starting to experience touchdown regression (currently only scored twice).

I know my team isn’t bad. I’m not sure if my team is actually good.

WinningStreaktoSAGA: 127 ppg – Still don’t like handicapping myself in these papers, but this is certainly the appropriate category. The strength of the team is RB (Zeke and Fournette help me rank 3rd at RB1 and RB2 scoring.) That’s really it – Pat Mahomes played 3 games with his head on fire (28.9 ppg) before succumbing to an ankle injury and eventually a kneecap dislocation (15.9 ppg during that stretch). Fameis is fine when I trust him (18.5 ppg) but like so many of us, I have bailed during his breakout games. OJ Howard was a disaster (and truly one of my most confident draft choices), though Darren Waller should alleviate that position going forward. The biggest issue has been the Flex where I rank dead last at 7.3ppg. By sheer regression you would think this would start to move upward. The team needs more firepower from somewhere other than RB to make noise, but where will it come from? A bunch of question marks among traditionally strong performers (Mahomes, Hilton, Juju, Melvin Gordon) leave this team relying on breaks/hot streaks/good luck in hoping for an extended season.

Daniel and the Shew: 125 ppg – CMC and Aaron Jones, good Lord! The only thing keeping Swave from sweeping #1 ranks in RB1 and RB2 are missing Aaron Jones breakout games (missed a 23 and 41 pt game) for the allure of Derrick Henry (be strong Swave!) As is, CMC’s otherworldly 27.0 ppg has Swave pacing RB1 scoring and the Jones/Henry combo sits in 4th for RB2. Justin Tucker has proven to be worth the $2 (I think?) by leading Swave to #1 in kicker scoring. The problem has been QB, (Daniel Jones sucked for 4 games with 11.4 ppg), TE (6.5 ppg aggregate with TJ Hockenson still not finding his week 1 stroke) and WR2 (Brandin Cooks 7.2 ppg in a broken Rams passing game). DJ Chark should help cover Cooks and Brees return allows Minshew (respectable 17.7 ppg) to cover Jones’s old spot. Never say never to a team with the best player in the league – especially a team who has already banked 5 wins thus far.

Da Bear Necessities: 120 ppg – Mitchell Trubisky is the excess weight on a sinking ship. I admire Jack’s loyalty, he’s a fan’s fanatic. But I think we’ve seen enough. He’s averaging 10.6 ppg (again, aiming for 20 ppg) and even removing the game he was injured mid-game still brings him to 12.7 ppg. Not to be outdone, Sam Darnold checks in at 11.6 ppg. Holy cow. Its also not helping that Le’Veon hasn’t found his groove (11.7 ppg). In brighter news, Mark Ingram has been solid (14.9 ppg) and Michael Thomas has been phenomenal (18.4 ppg, Jack leads all teams in WR1 points.) I’m keeping track of waiver transactions and how many make an impact – Jack leads the league in playing 9 different players purchased from the waiver pool (not looking at K/DEF in this analysis). Only 1 in 13 attempts has said waiver players hit either 10 pts for RB/WR/TE or 20 pts for a QB. Tough sledding here. I do think Le’Veon finds a higher gear and that Golladay’s presence in the lineup improves in the second half of the year, though the biggest jump will come when Jack finds top 20 quarterback play. (QB 20 sits at 15.3 ppg for the record).

A long ways from the Whiskery Phil League

Bob Kraft’s Day Spa: 124 ppg – This is the other team suffering from a fickle schedule’s seasonal musings: Scooter has accumulated 4 expected wins, only winning 3 times. And the upcoming schedule is unforgiving: 5 of the 6 remaining games are against the top 6 in total points scored. No rest for the weary. The path to overcoming the schedule rests on the shoulders of DeShaun Watson, who is neck and neck with Lamar Jackson at 25.1 ppg. Cooper Kupp is the other standout at 17.3 ppg, giving Scooter the #1 ranking at the WR2 position. The biggest hole attempting to be filled is the other WR spot – the one Antonio Brown is supposed to be filling. The fill-ins have averaged just 8.3 ppg, a league low for that position. Unfortunately with Kerryon hitting IR and the Chiefs backfield never really settling on one player, I see the Day Spa shuttering early, and truthfully, good riddance (to the spa of course.)  

This pit is bigger than I thought

WeAllRammedIntoDaPit: 116 ppg – Rough year. The pit dwellers are top 3 in scoring in only one category: Kicker (2nd). Jason has tried to replace an injured Cam Newton to the tune of 11.5 ppg and Baker Mayfield was almost worse (13.0 ppg). Nick Chubb got the pass down work we were hoping for and has prospered (18.3 ppg). GurleyMan has been at least startable (13.0 ppg). Allen Robinson has overcome the Trubisky trainwreck (14.6 ppg). What the heckfire happened to Zach Ertz? (8.4 ppg even with all of the injuries at receiver in Philly.) Tyreek’s injury didn’t help and neither has Mahomes’ – but his presence lifts this team’s ceiling and positions it as a postseason spoiler down the stretch.

Fantasy football is a waste of time and fundamentally unfair (until next year)

Goffam City/Little Mermaids/Just Here for 2020: 114 ppg – There are years where it all feels like a bad dream and that’s been the case so far for Soape. Kamara and Conner have staved off injury (to self and team’s QB) to post a respectable 15.7 ppg each, but you’re hoping maybe one of these gets to 20+ ppg on draft day. Somehow Soape’s WR2 position has only 1 game scoring over 10 pts all year (and that was 10.4). Yikes. That WR2 position owns a league low 6.7 ppg. I wrote down “TE is a STEAMING TRASH HEAP” in my notes after seeing the 4.3 ppg average. Also this team’s defense scoring is league worst (5.8 ppg). The one bright spot? QB2. Russell Wilson surprised most of us and has been lethal when allowed to throw, scoring 23.3 ppg after costing a mere $3 on draft day. Well done on that call, Joelseph. Good luck on beating the real-life Dolphins win total.

 6,277 words. Are you stuffed? Thanks for sitting by the fire and chatting with me in the midst of our journey – the road to glory becomes narrower with each passing week. May the road rise up to meet you. (Well really, three of you. I’ll take the other spot.)

 Indubitably yours,

Dungeonmaster Dave

[daveandtrev]

The long-awaited 2018 Draft Day recap of the Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League

League of extra-ordinary friends of Stave Dark,

I’m coming to you from the humble local library with the 3rd iteration of this intro…because I’ve stopped and started this document at least that many times over at least that many weeks. No matter to you, you want the facts, the hot taeks, the dirt on everyone else’s team while being showered with praise on your decision making and future team trajectory. I hear you – I want all of that too – feel free to write me back with effusive praise of my team construction and domination. (Wow, great way to jinx a 5-1 start). You’ll see a familiar format – current analysis and of course my thoughts that I had right after draft day so we can see where we started and how we are progressing. And much to the joy of everyone (I hope) , I plan on pulling no punches, over-exaggerating regularly, and telling you just like I see it – all while putting a positive spin on how your team can make that leap to championship immortality (you will be immortalized in the hearts of all 12 of us.)

Let’s start with the rankings, and then I’ll break down my thoughts.

Post-Draft Ranks (By Tiers, with weak spots in parentheses.)

The Favorite

defeatedseason #G1 - Mon (No apparent weakness )

Well positioned but can see a potential flaw

STOP THAT WAGON - Dave (WR2)

Riders of Roquan - Jack (Flex is concerning, QB2)

fLII Eagles fLII - Jason (Suspensions/Injuries, Flex)

Needs some things to break right

Superstorm Scooter - Scooter (RB2 is desperate)

Swatt Like Watt 2.0 - Cristian (QB2, Flex)

Three Headed Monstar - Swave (WR2 is concerning, TE is concerning, QB2)

Have some distance to make up

The Michael Scarns - Phil (Flex, TE, RB2, QB2)

Sm-eagles Lose Rings - Soape (Flex, TE, WR2, RB2)

Cousins Van Service - Trevor (RB2 is concerning, QB2, RB1)

Coach Davis Allstars - Grundy (Flex, QB2, RB2)

Dak Attack - Plunk (High end talent, RB2, QB2, Flex)

 You read that right- I liked Monica’s ragtag group of misfits who didn’t win a single football game in 2009 to take down the league. (Coach Grundy and I take full credit, we should have had them better prepared.)

After spending about 2-3 hours trying to figure out where each team would finish after draft night using the eye test (nearly impossible), I decided to use a scale to assign points to each position based on quality of player. The scale works as follows:

2 pts – Stud. Think top 12-15 overall fantasy players.

1.5 pts – Probable stud with a bit of uncertainty. This is that next 12-15 guys.

1 pt – Solid, steady player who is an advantage at the position. (A tier of about 20)

0.5 pts – An above average starter – a guy you don’t love, but you have a hard time benching. (25 guy tier)

0 pts – Adequate starter, replacement level. (I counted 22 starters at this level)

-0.5 pts: Sub replacement level – candidate to be replaced. (This was 3 guys)

-1 pts: Guy with a very unclear role on a bad team – needs replaced. (1 guy)

-1.5 pts: Same as above, but in a situation where the owner had nobody to really back him up – meaning he needed to land a waiver wire pickup immediately in order to avoid consistent pt scoring under 5 pts (1 situation)

Caveat here: Because it’s easier to find an adequate starter on waivers than it is to find an above average starter, I believe that the five instances of negative scores I gave out would be the easiest to remedy. So if you see your team with a negative, know that it has the potential to be fixed quickly. (And because of this, it’s possible that a score of -1.5 pts is too harsh, but the unique situation warranted a drastic score in my mind).

2nd Caveat – Once I got to bench players, I only counted the ones that I considered to be above-average players. Everyone else just got zeros. So the grades you see are based 95% on starters.

Let’s get to it:

Tier 1: The Favorite

defeatedseason #G1

Total Pts: 9.5.

Strengths: QB1, QB2, TE.

Weaknesses: None. Each position is above-average and two bench players were also rated above- average.

Post-Draft Thoughts: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers simply went way too cheap. Both of these guys have shown the ability to be top three QBs over the past two years and rare difference makers at the position. (Brady was QB3 last year, QB4 in points per game in 2016. Aaron was QB1 in 2016 and got hurt last year.) Call it a byproduct of the QB’s being placed too low on the draft interface (Phil Stark’s idea), but whatever it was – QBs came cheaply this year. Monica buttressed those picks with Gronk: “Give me Gronk all day every day!” was a core strategy this year. Brady/Rodgers/Gronk was undoubtedly the cheapest path to rostering 3 difference-making players. Every other starter I saw as above average – worth 0.5pts in my system, and my best guess is that some would fall off to replacement level with a couple making a leap to solid starter or potential stud. I especially liked the 4 RBs (Jay Ajayi, Alex Collins, Jamaal Williams, Lamar Miller) that she gathered for $12-16 and figured at least one would become a $30 player by season’s end. Mon set out before the draft to land two “kick-ass” QBs and Gronk while not looking like a schmuck, and I think she accomplished those goals easily. Her own post-draft assessment was glowing “I thought my team was awesome because you liked it and of course I trust your judgment”. Oh boy, no pressure.

Week 6 follow-up: Well this ranking certainly looks out of place when we look at the standings. A couple of things have surprised me – starting with the abject bad luck with mid-tier players.

Larry Fitzgerald: WR86, offense was so bad the coordinator got fired 6 games in.

Jay Ajayi: RB27, dead to fantasy players.

Alex Collins: RB23, hanging by a thread.

Jamaal Williams: RB53, failed to establish himself, freefalling.

Lamar Miller: RB34, boring as ever as he is threatened by 20 carry, 45 yard Alfred Blue for touches (Cristian nods in approval).

Marvin Jones: WR44, overtaken by Kenny Golladay.

Emmanuel Sanders: WR14, very solid.

 I count one hit out of seven selections with maybe Alex Collins or Marvin Jones salvaging their season. The $10-$25 range which typically churns out a couple of studs and is best approached by volume (checkmark for Mon here) completely fell apart.

All of this would be okay if the studs were producing, but in the year of the quarterback, Mon’s league high $58 QB dollars have only rewarded her with an AJSL rank of 3rd at QB1 and 6th at QB2 to date. Same with Gronk who surprisingly sits at TE6.  Not bad play by any of them, they haven’t created the positional separation she was expecting. The result is 1-5 with a murky rest of season outlook. The aforementioned studs need to get to #1 or #2 ranks at the position, John Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will have to carry the load at WR while giant question marks remain at RB. Unfortunate. In the end though, Mon has stated that she’s “just here for the friendships” as she curses every loss and wonders aloud why we subject ourselves to fantasy’s roller coaster of emotions each year. I tend to remember the joys of previous years when she was in a championship and loved “beating the boys”, so we are working on taking the good with the bad at the Stark house this year.

Tier 2: Well positioned but can see a potential flaw

STOP THAT WAGON!

Total Pts: 8

Strengths: RB1, RB2, WR1, Flex

Weaknesses: WR2

Post Draft Thoughts: I based my post-draft analysis off of my own cheat sheet – so as always, I hope I rank myself pretty high afterwards. Otherwise I screwed up my draft (has happened too many years to count, I feel like I’m learning consistency in drafting here in year 10). Anyways, my goal was to get the cheapest of the “good RBs” which was mission accomplished with Melvin Gordon and Run CMC. Jordan Howard was an upside play and I was hoping for him to take a leap under Matt Nagy and turn into a difference maker for me in the Flex (aka the 2017 Gurley effect). I did my best Phil Stark impression by rostering AJ Green for the 3rd straight year (and for the cheapest price yet!) as he was a positive regression candidate considering  his 2017 efficiency (as were all of the Bengals really – the O-Line crippled Dalton last year). [Nerd note: Use airyards.com to find regression candidates for WRs.] Garoppolo was a panic pick -  when I realized there were no mid-tier WRs I liked I knew I didn’t want to get stuck with leftover draft dollars. So I sprung for Jimmy. Mahomes was a COMPLETE afterthought and I feel completely eyes-closed-lucky to end up with two Chiefs QBs for $2 or less in consecutive years that have set the league on fire. Andy Reid, take a bow. You make dreams come true. The biggest hole was WR and I knew it right away. I forgot one of my cardinal rules (downgrade EVERYONE coming off a coordinator or QB change, too much uncertainty) and drafted Robby Anderson anyways. Overall though, I felt good about my team on draft night. (Truly, my biggest regret was also my public folly – forgetting to lock in our draft time on Yahoo was pretty embarrassing. Although it launched a fantastic faux-mutiny in the ESPN draft room. )

Week 6 follow-up: As noted, Mahomes has been awesome, Melvin Gordon is sitting at RB3 and I’m getting RB1/WR1 seasons so far from CMC and Green. I’m somehow ranked 2nd in AJSL kicker and defense scoring which is one of the invisible difference makers that comes and goes each year. (And I just snagged Zuerlein!) Robert Woods has now solidified the WR2 spot thanks to a Week 3 trade, checking in at WR9 on the year. I’ve had three season-ending injuries (Garoppolo, Delanie, Eifert as a waiver pickup) but overall feel fortunate to be in 1st. The bench is an absolute wasteland, making this team extremely vulnerable to injury right now which is the biggest forward looking concern. Also Jordan Howard got worse with the new coaching change and Garoppolo’s injury has left revolving-door quarterback replacements (mostly to bad results). So the fast start is big but this is not a problem-free team by any stretch. Nevertheless, with the banked wins and top score so far, playoffs are a real possibility for this team.  

Did ya Mitch Me? (Currently Riders of Roquan)

Total Pts: 7

Strengths: RB1, WR1

Weaknesses: QB2, Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: Stacked at the most important positions with potentially ascending signal-callers receiving “offensive-guru” upgrades at coach/coordinator, I really really liked this team. OBJ was in my top WR tier outside of Antonio Brown (I had no concerns from last year’s injury) and Dave Johnson’s role seemed too-secure to have any issue with his coaching change (wait, what was my rule about new coaches? Especially ones without an offensive pedigree that’s anywhere close to the outgoing coaching staff?). Baldwin was the only show in town on a pass-happy Seahawks team and Mixon was my 2nd favorite candidate to have a breakout alongside Jordan Howard. Burton was also a solid upside pick as an athlete who needed a better role to succeed and from all accounts was going to get it this year. Jack made Burton and the Bears D a priority, eschewing any notion of home team/fantasy team conflict of interest. Depth was going to be an issue here as I had concerns about bench players, but this is generally true of most teams in a 12 team league. Jack ended the draft a little sour about losing the bidding war (to the computer) on Zeke Elliot and in turn spent more than anticipated to secure Dave Johnson. Equipped with the best intentions of teaching his visiting brothers how to master the auction draft, Jack was unable to fully deliver his knowledge on account of the brothers equipping themselves with Jack’s beer. You can lead a horse to water…but all bets are off when the water turns out to be beer.

Week 6 Follow Up: First off, hats off to the best waiver move of the season immediately after the draft. It hit me about a day later to check and see if I could pick up Conner and sure enough, Jack had scooped him with a $3 claim (which was unopposed if I remember right). This has been an absolute boon to this team and is a season-changer. To get it week 1 is really incredible. Draft picks have been mixed – Mixon is the best of the bunch followed closely by Trubisky at RB8 and QB9 respectively (quick note: all of my ranks are on a per-week basis while only considering players that have played in at least half of their teams games. So Mixon has missed games but has been solid when healthy). David Johnson has been a very, very quiet RB12 which is more than serviceable in light of the Cardinals offense. The buy-low window has most likely closed here, especially with a new coordinator in town (Leftwich!). Jack has also benefited from the 1st ranked defense as Khalil Mack has been better than advertised. Going forward, I have very few concerns – I think Baldwin rebounds to give Jack above average starters at RB/WR/Flex. Trubisky and Flacco deserve to still be questioned but early returns are positive. Barring injury, I see this as a solid contender for a playoff spot.

FLIIEaglesfLII

Total Pts: 7

Strengths: QB1, RB1

Weaknesses: Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: This was another well-rounded team that I liked quite a bit. Saquon was the headliner but I did have some concerns with his preseason hamstring injury and his rookie status. As someone who drafted Ryan Mathews in the first round after LaDainian Tomlinson retired, I get gun-shy with heavy investments into rookie backs (though I do like rookie RBs overall, I’m hesitant with a can’t-miss pick). Jason did not share my concerns and was hellbent on acquiring Barkley, hedging his own Eagles allegiance with a divisional fantasy pick to ensure a good outcome on at least one front. “I desperately wanted him in case the Giants steam rolled the NFC East lol.” Russell Wilson was my other favorite pick, and he was secured at a bargain-basement $14. The QB market crash of 2018 (with differing opinions of causation) had all sorts of wonky results. But a solid job by Jason to capitalize. I know LeSean McCoy has been a solid contributor in the past but this Bills team terrified me. Many experts still talked of volume (in terms of run-heavy team with a bellcow back), but RBs on bad teams have a hard time getting volume when they are down on the scoreboard. I also believe Tyrod Taylor had a positive effect on LeSean and he was losing that effect with Tyrod’s departure. (Jason knew McCoy was trouble right away – he knew he would have to pay up at RB this year, but with everyone else also deciding to pay up he felt the squeeze and panic-picked McCoy). This team had a lot of injuries and suspensions that made me nervous as well, but the names looked good. In fact Jason targeted those players and figured to score good value with preseason injuries. Overall this was a team with few holes, and Jason felt that going 2-2 in the first four games without Wentz/Jeffery/Edelman would springboard his team to a playoff run. Outside of McCoy, Jason’s annual Cowboys pick was missing from this team (you could barely vouch for anyone outside of Zeke) which meant many long hours of Cowboys games without any vested interest.

Week 6 Follow Up: Man I did not peg this team well…Thielen has turned into a monster with Kirk Cousins force feeding him over the middle with a suddenly pass-happy Vikings team. Barkley is a certified force and my new favorite player to watch. He has broken big plays against great rush D’s and is already matchup-proof. I can’t remember the last time that happened 6 games into someone’s career. Wilson’s Seahawks have now gone run-heavy and he sits at QB19, a big disappointment. Jarvis Landry hasn’t blown the doors off yet but I feel like it’s a matter of time before Baker gets on the same page with him. The injury/suspension crowd has been great! Jeffery/Edelman/Michel all look like fantasy contributors down the stretch. Even Watkins has had some solid games off the bench. Wentz is only going to get better as well. McCoy didn’t work out but it probably doesn’t matter with Michel’s emergence to above average starter at RB14. Typical injury caveats apply, but this smells like a potential playoff team to me, and even more so if/when the QBs get on track.

Tier 3: Needs some things to break right

Superstorm Scooter

Total Pts: 6.5

Strengths: QB1, QB2, RB1

Weaknesses: RB2 (this was the -1.5 grade. As in my expectation was 3 or 4 weekly pts here)

Post Draft Thoughts: I strongly liked Leonard Fournette on a Jags team that’s committed to the run in a way only the Cowboys could understand. Although I don’t like to pay too much attention to future season schedule, there are a few guys who make adjustments for offseason moves and leverage Vegas lines to better predict strength of schedule, even positionally for fantasy. Warren Sharp does this very well (https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/) and he was banging the drum for an exceptionally easy run defense schedule in 2018 for the Jags. (Again, I use these very lightly and only in EXTREME cases because the predictability of strength of schedule that’s in the “non extreme” category can be sensitive to changing quickly. Whereas the “extreme” case has a better chance to hold as being a “truth” over the long term). That’s a lot to say about why I liked Fournette, but hopefully you get to see a little bit into my process here. Tyreek Hill is so trick-or-treat and scores almost none of his TDs in the RZ, which is very hard to sustain. But…he’s been so explosive for the last couple of years that he seems to be able to bypass conventional wisdom and produce. I’ll always struggle to appreciate guys in this vein and knew I wouldn’t pay enough for him myself, but he has been solid over his first two years in the league. QBs took a while to be brought to bid, and I thought Scooter did an excellent job getting to Deshaun and Cam when he had a bit more money left than others. I still believe these top-end QBs give you a significant advantage over the course of the season similar to what a top RB/WR give you, and still they come cheaper than those other assets. Any team that doubles up here locks in a solid weekly floor. I remember Juju Smith-Schuster specifically as a guy that was auctioned off too early for me to feel comfortable (as I still hadn’t spent a dollar yet and wasn’t sure what my strategy would allow) but I always felt he went at a great price. Sure enough if he had gone about 80 picks later I would have gladly traded Jimmy Garoppolo, Robby Anderson and $2 savings for Juju. Early auction picks can be risky but I often find really good deals are available, especially in tiers that haven’t been established yet.

The only reason Scooter didn’t rank higher was the utter lack of RB2 hope. Chubb was clearly going to be the #3 RB option in his offense, Hines was playing for a Colts team that looked to have massive problems running the ball and I was pretty certain that AP would supplant Robert Kelley. Hence the -1.5 grade and a projection of under 5 pts a week.

Week 6 Follow Up: Fortunately, the best way to fix a massive hole at RB2 after the draft is to hit on a waiver claim (and early season if possible) and Scooter nailed his – he scooped up Philip Lindsay after his week 1 performance. He has turned in a respectable RB24 showing and is scoring 10.8 pts a game through Week 6. Going back to my grading scale, this completely removes the -1.5 and substitutes an average to above average starter (so a 0 to 0.5) which puts Scooter at 8 total points and solidly in the top tier of this league. (Sure enough, Scooter sits at 5th overall in scoring after 6 weeks and only a brutal schedule has kept him from more wins.) Though Fournette has been a notable dud, Scooter scooped up his backup TJ Yeldon and when Corey Grant went down with injury, Yeldon found himself with solid volume and has produced like an RB1 the past few weeks. He’s got Tyreek sitting at WR2 overall (Clearly, I know nothing) and Juju is overall WR16 and would probably go for $25-$30 if the draft was held today. The QBs have held serve and should continue to elevate as we move along.  As the schedule begins to even out I could absolutely see Scooter making a late season push for the playoffs, though I should point out the 2-4 record will make it tough to get the 8 wins typically needed to break into the playoff party.

Swat Like Watt 2.0

Total Pts: 6.5

Strengths: WR1, RB1

Weaknesses: QB2, Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: As we all have experienced first hand, there are no sure things in fantasy. We all use a path to build our best “sure thing” roster by the end of the draft, but I don’t think anyone was more direct this year than Cristian. Snagging the top RB (Todd Gurley) and top WR (Antonio Brown) who are established, foundational pieces in their offenses is as sure as it gets. When pressing him on the issue, Cristian had no intention of letting Gurley get away and was willing to break the bank. “I would've bid up to $185 to roster him. He is my guilty pleasure. The only non-Texan player that I have to watch play every week.” $60 seems to be a hard ceiling for our league, but maybe that’s because some have been unwilling to test it. We will see if his allegiance holds for the 2019 draft. Behind the studs, my favorite pick was Matt Stafford at $6 which seemed unthinkable before the draft. He’s been solidly above average for years and with his coordinator staying on board, Stafford seemed primed to be an asset in spite of a new head coach. Rams WRs were tough for me – I liked all of their RZ numbers from last year but with Brandin Cooks potentially filling the Sammy Watkins role and the Rams preferring to lean run-heavy, I just wasn’t sure what to do with them. I remember Trevor playing Robert Woods when he scored an ungodly 33 pts out of seemingly nowhere (Woods was a nobody in Buffalo for years) but the injury/lack of consistency in 2017 led to 2018 uncertainty. Despite that, I love picking up multiple pieces of an attack that you believe in – if one guy misses its more likely the other guy hits. So I enjoyed the Kupp/Woods double up. Looks like that was according to plan – “My strategy was to get an elite play at RB and WR each, load up on value WRs from high scoring offenses, and pick up as many high volume RBs as possible.”  Cristian did report a couple of regrets, first and foremost that he didn’t snag Big Ben (at a $3 draft price, I’m assuming he simply forgot) and was left with Eli Manning as a Week 1 starter…and is now set to roster him again in Week 7. Having a positional weakness at QB feels strangely more helpless than other positions (where you expect more volatility) so I can understand the sentiment. I rode the Eli train myself in week 4 – no warm fuzzies were felt that week. Post-draft, Cristian felt he was one waiver-claim away from a strong showing this year and I think that’s an accurate assessment.

Week 6 Follow Up: Gurley is as advertised, setting the league on fire thus far at overall RB1. Antonio Brown hasn’t dominated, but even in his “off” years he is still a weekly weapon and checks in at WR5. Rams WRs were a great play, and somehow both paid off. Woods and Kupp are WRs 9 and 15. Fuller has balled out when healthy, Tate continues his years-long dominance in the slot and even $3 Kyle Rudolph has been worth the roster spot at TE11. QB has been by far the struggle spot as Cristian ranks 12th (last) in the AJSL in QB production. Stafford checks in at QB18 overall but I expect that number to increase over the 2nd half. Kicker is another spot that’s been a struggle (he’s again ranked 12th) with Boswell being the rare kicker on a good team who doesn’t produce, forcing Cristian to the waiver wire early. Kenyon Drake has been criminally misused in favor of Swavely-favorite Frank Gore and is leaving Cristian in weekly start-sit predicaments.

Going forward the cupboard still seems stacked at WR, especially with the Tyler Boyd pickup. Realistically this team goes 5 deep with startable WRs. And this was after the trade of Robert Woods. With the weekly flex strength that this depth should allow and the obvious top-end talent, it’s not a stretch to envision this team going on a hot streak. Ill point out again that you need 8 wins for a realistic playoff chance– and with only 2 wins in 6 games this team needs to go 6-2 over the next 8 weeks to feel good about its chances.

Three Headed Monstar

Total Pts: 6

Strengths: RB1, RB2, Flex

Weaknesses: QB2, WR2 (-1 grade), TE (-0.5 grade)

Post Draft Thoughts: If I recall correctly, it was Grundy who deadpanned the obvious in the chat on draft night after the Alvin Kamara pick: “Swave jammed ‘em in.” Nobody in recent memory has taken this approach of three stud RBs so I was definitely excited to see how the experiment would turn out. According to Swave this was not the plan, hashtagging #zekewasamistake and listing his malfunctioning laptop as his biggest draft regret. #JamEmIn of course has consequences: massive holes almost everywhere else on the roster. My favorite late round pick for Swave was another low priced QB, this time Big Ben at $3. At wide receiver, Josh Gordon was a big risk, but if he were to rise back to his WR1 days I would be concerned to be in the same league as this team. Cohen at $6 wasn’t on my radar but Swave is clued into the Chicago beat and took a calculated risk in that spot as a backup. “Tarik Cohen is the guy I wanted going in and got. Quality player, high ceiling, low price, the younger Tevin Coleman.” Carr at $1 in Gruden’s offense was like found money and I liked the upside of Mayfield if/when he saw the field. Charles Clay was a liability at TE as was the Devante Parker/Sterling Shepard combo. Ultimately, Swave was sad to see long time bench stash Tevin Coleman get away in this draft.

This was one of the harder teams to rank simply because the range of outcomes was so big. One injury puts this team in the basement – but three solid RB1 years combined with another guy or two becoming bankable lets you see a path where Swave is playing on the last weekend of the season. As a fan of the game, this team was earmarked as my favorite team to follow this season.

Week 6 Follow Up: Well…Le’Veon sort of killed everything. His holdout didn’t end and part of this team is lost to the mystery of “what-if”. Regardless, Kamara’s first four weeks were better than expected as he became the easy RB1 overall before Ingram returned and Kamara still sits at RB2 today. Zeke is at RB6 – so two thirds of the plan worked to perfection. Swave has predictably turned in the 12th overall AJSL rank at WR scoring and has struggled at QB as well (8th in AJSL) mostly due to Carr/Mayfield underwhelming so far. (Ben has produced – going QB6.)  Eric Ebron was a huge pickup for Swave and is producing 13.9 pts/gm as the overall TE2. Hopefully for Swave his production stays consistent when Jack Doyle inevitably comes back (though not expected for a couple of weeks yet). Speaking of inevitably coming back – the Le’Veon situation should have a bit more clarity in a week or two and speculation will be rampant on how he will share the backfield with James Conner. That’s by far the biggest story line to this team – if Bell is back in a feature role this team will assuredly ascend the standings. If not, it’ll have to be pieces of the suddenly spry Bears offense (Cohen, Gabriel) who carry Swave forward. There’s still so much uncertainty with this team, I still see the range of outcomes as the most volatile in our league.

Tier 4: Have some distance to make up

The Michael Scarns

Total Pts: 5.5

Strengths: WR1, WR2

Weaknesses: QB2, RB2, TE, Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: I’m always a fan of a WR-WR start at the top of drafts – you get high ceilings and a better chance of your player avoiding injuries vs. a top running back. Of course you sacrifice some of the outrageously high ceilings (something only Gurley/Le’Veon/Dave Johnson are capable of) which is the trade-off, but nonetheless you will rarely bust using this strategy, which I love. DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams were Phil’s picks and I loved their upside on high-volume pass offenses. Devonta Freeman was my volume-policing pick from last year that I regretted, but he cashed in several 20+ pt games and his only real shortcoming was staying healthy. Phil got him at $35 which is probably fair. Dez was an interesting play as a guy likely to sign somewhere in the weeks following our draft who would have went for $25 or so if still on the Cowboys. The Rivers/Dalton QB combo is as gutty as you would hope – nothing flashy but most likely to get average to above-average results. Rounding out the flex spot was yearly staple Mike Crabtree because Phil Stark is loyal and he doesn’t care what you think. (everyone else can suck it).

Week 6 Follow Up: 1st overall in AJSL WR scoring through 6 weeks is unsurprisingly...Jason. Gotcha! Okay fine, it’s Phil and it’s not close (36 ppg from his 2 WRs, 2nd place is 31.2 ppg which is Jason). You get what you pay for. Hopkins and Adams have been the expected anchor to the team. Devonta got hurt (trending toward injury prone unfortunately) but Phil did what I failed to do last year – smartly grab Tevin Coleman as a likely stud if Devonta were to go down. Great insurance policy taken out by Phil on draft day. Running back has become an adventure for Phil, especially now with Devonta on IR and resurgent Marshawn Lynch out with a groin for over a month. Gio Bernard filled in admirably for Mixon and then went back down again himself and Chris Carson has been either studly or terrible with nothing in between. Now even Coleman finds himself in a 50/50 timeshare. I think there’s a way through the mess, and Phil had one of the best bench drafts for RBs I’ve seen in a long time (Coleman/Lynch/Bernard have all had solid games at RB), so I’m cautiously optimistic that something will stick here. Even though Dez hasn’t signed, Crabtree has been his steady self and DeSean Jackson has popped in the suddenly explosive Tampa offense (thanks to OC Todd Monken now calling plays with a sprinkle of Fitzmagic). Rivers and Dalton are happily settling in as no-doubt starters at QB11 and 15 respectively. Overall this is a solid team that has banked an impressive five wins based on great team balance and (as is always nice) league-low opponent scoring. Three more wins gets him in the playoff discussion and merely going 4-4 down the stretch virtually guarantees a berth. The injuries will be tough to overcome though and because of that I do see this team as potentially vulnerable.

Sm-eagles Lose Rings

Total Pts: 5.5

Strengths: QB1, WR1

Weaknesses: WR2, RB2, TE, Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: Taking advantage of a high efficiency but low volume 2017, Soape bought in on a Drew Brees resurgence at the discounted price of $22. He then paired him with fellow NFC South passer (and annual Bucs nemesis) Matt Ryan at a measly $10. As you can tell I liked both of these guys to rebound and post better numbers in 2018. Julio was allergic to the end zone last year and I was sure that he found regress to a more reasonable touchdown total (maybe 7 or 8 TDs). Dalvin Cook showed well early last year before going down in injury and my only concern was the possible timeshare with Latavius Murray. I viewed Brandin Cooks as a risk in that he was changing offenses and didn’t set the world on fire in New England like I thought he would. I even listed him as a concern as Joel’s WR2. Jack Doyle worried me at TE and the Flex was a smorgasbord of maybe-decent WRs. I really struggled to see where the high-end pieces that carry fantasy lineups would be found on this team.

Week 6 Follow Up: Turns out, Julio is more allergic to the end zone than we thought – to the point where they at least TRIED to get him the ball in the red zone last year (18 targets compared to 3 in six games this year). He’s still dominant as ever, but the lack of TDs has led to many a group chat complaint from Mr. Soape. (Would love to take him and his three 19+ pt games off your hands). Dalvin has been nonexistent and injured (that marks Cook, Devonta, Fournette, McCoy and Le’Veon as distinct non-contributors so far as compared to Doug Baldwin/Amari Cooper at the WR spot among $30+ players. RB = more upside, higher risk). Doyle was a great pick at a highly used position on a team that features the TE…and by getting hurt he’s now watching Eric Ebron soak in that glory. To top it off, Joel’s best RB pick Carlos Hyde (a great find at $5) gets traded in the middle of the season to be a clear backup in Jacksonville. (Can't remember that situation happening before). The results of the misfortune are telling: Soape’s team ranks 7th or worse in AJSL scoring at every position except for QB. That’s the big silver lining as the Brees/Ryan combo (QB3/4 on the year) has led Soape to the 1st overall QB rank in the AJSL, scoring a combined 50.6 pts/gm (AJSL average is 38 pts). Going forward, Joel will roll out an elite QB1/2 and strong WR1/2 but there’s not a whole lot after that. (You’ve heard him sound the alarm on needing an RB). I’m hesitant to project a playoff berth for this injury and trade ravaged team.  

Cousins Van Service

Total Pts: 5

Strengths: WR1, TE

Weaknesses: QB2, RB1, RB2 (-0.5)

Post Draft Thoughts: First thought: Welcome back. After trying a variety of strategies from Greg-imitation to equity score valuations, it was good to see Trevor get back to what once made him a perennial playoff force. And that of course is high upside pass catchers mixed with pass catching running backs while scooping up cheap quarterbacks late in the draft. Armed with his infamous 35-man list, Trevor settled on Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs to create an advantage over other team’s WR and flex choices while Travis Kelce set up to be the weekly TE hammer. Amari Cooper has shown talent and wild inconsistency but Jon Gruden was adamant all off-season that Amari would be the main artery of his pass offense. I liked his chances to re-establish himself, especially without Crabtree. I viewed Diggs as a bargain and felt Keenan Allen was very fairly priced based on his torrid end to last season. Royce Freeman was an interesting case – someone I didn’t like but guys like Evan Silva were continually pounding the table for. I think I wrote to myself post-draft that I probably undervalued him in my draft prep. Drafting his handcuff/passing game complement in Devontae Booker looked to be shrewd. Cam Meredith was a buzzy prospect in New Orleans during the late preseason and I thought he could potentially carve out a role quickly. Trevor intentionally pursued suspended players, looking to Aaron Jones, Jameis Winston and Mark Ingram to provide value. As you can see by my notes on team weakness, I was extremely nervous on Duke Johnson, especially with a new QB known for attacking vertically along with a similarly minded OC in Todd Haley. Add in Hyde, who caught passes in San Fran and Chubb who was a decorated prospect, and I just wasn’t sure Duke would be even an average contributor. When the draft was over Trevor lamented about missing out on Phil Rivers and Patrick Mahomes (for $2, he didn’t seem prohibitively pricey, but I feel the same way about a guy like Kenny Golladay). Regardless, he felt he left the draft with a solid team that would probably landy in the 4th to 6th place range.

Week 6 Follow Up: Take a look at the standings and you will see that the worst case scenario has come true for this team. Keenan Allen reverted back to early last season when he was an afterthought in the offense (ranks WR31), Amari Cooper is as boom/bust as we feared, both Denver running backs Trevor selected got outplayed by UDFA Philip Lindsay, Mike Williams and Buck Allen pretended to emerge and then went back into obscurity, Aaron Jones cant rid himself of clearly inferior Green Bay running backs, and Duke Johnson has been completely misused in Cleveland (dude signed an extension with them this offseason…why??? He could be a legit 3 down back somewhere else!). Alex Smith has regressed back into his shell and doesn’t have Andy Reid to coax him out of it and Tyrod couldn’t last long enough to bridge to Jameis Winston. The only bright spot has been Travis Kelce who has picked up where he left off last season, checking in at TE3 overall with clear upside for more. Winston and Mark Ingram should be contributors off their suspensions, but Trevor can only lose 1 game going forward to have a strong shot at the playoffs. To me, that’s simply too steep of a climb. I think the draft process was sound but I think it’s one of those years where execution hasn’t followed.

Coach Davis All-Stars

Total Pts: 5

Strengths: WR1, RB1

Weaknesses: QB2, RB2, Flex

Post Draft Thoughts: The clear anchors of Grundy’s team were Kareem Hunt and Michael Thomas and I don’t think anyone would complain while starting a team with that duo. Almost everywhere else I had question marks. Luck was still struggling with arm-strength issues which would directly affect TY Hilton. Alfred Morris was already in an uncertain timeshare and hadn’t really impressed since his days with RG3 in Washington. Goodwin was a solid upside play with Garoppolo, but certainly not a sure thing. Goff was someone I looked into and figured that the Rams were simply operating with a run-first philosophy. I wondered if he would hurt for upside. I liked Engram as a steady TE contributor and loved Golladay’s upside, though feared his role may not be secure. Overall, I saw plenty of ways that this team could succeed but even more pitfalls leading to disappointment.

Week 6 Follow Up: Does it even matter what the guy does on draft day? He overcame something like $70 worth of drafted players missing 75% of the year in 2017 to make the playoffs and despite my initial concerns Grundy boasts the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. Nearly all of my concerns on his players have been alleviated (Luck has his arm strength back and is quarterbacking the highest volume passing attack in the NFL, Goff is a bonafide first-tier QB on the best offense in the league, Golladay has a huge role in Detroit, James White is suddenly an every week start (he ranks RB9 after 6 weeks!) and the studs haven’t faltered.) He’s hardly made any waiver moves (2nd lowest) indicating that this performance is almost entirely fueled by draft success. He’s even showed incredible patience with the Minnesota defense as it encountered early season struggles and is now rounding into form.  The team has very few weaknesses and with returns from injury looks to have depth as well. As is yearly custom, Grundy looks to be on his way to another playoff appearance.

Dak Attack

Total Pts: 5

Strengths: TE

Weaknesses: QB2, RB2, Flex, overall high-end talent

Post Draft Thoughts: Where are the superstars? I was surprised at this depth heavy approach but hey, to each his own. Mike Evans and Zach Ertz figured to be the lynchpins here and the good news is that I tended to like the depth that Coach acquired. Breida was a surprise for me at $22, but there was definitely carries for the taking with McKinnon getting injured late in the preseason. I liked Chris Hogan and Derrick Henry to come out from the shadows of Julian Edelman and DeMarco Murray and really establish themselves as weapons for their teams. Kirk Cousins seemed to have too many weapons to fail. Rex Burkhead, Corey Davis, and Allen Robinson figured to be primary options on their teams and a $2 Dak Prescott was only 1 year removed from being considered an elite fantasy quarterback. Jordan Reed also had a ton of upside and was being priced like he was already injured (most of us have been burned before and didn’t bother bidding). Similar to Grundy’s team you could tell yourself a story of things working out here.

Week 6 Follow Up: Things didn’t really work out here. Ertz, Evans, Breida and Cousins did their parts. But Hogan/Henry/Burkhead have been unplayable and Davis/Robinson are massively disappointing at WR46 and WR40. Kerryon has yet to get unleashed, Ridley exploded and then quieted down and Jordan Reed is healthy but surprisingly not a main component of the Washington offense. Oh, and Dak legitimately needs pass catching help in Dallas to be effective in both real life and fantasy. As such, Plunk ranks 10th or worst in AJSL scoring at the QB2, WR2, and RB2 spots. With a 2-4 record and a lack of real difference makers on this roster, Plunk looks to be headed for another disappointing finish.

 That covers every team. Are you satisfied? I hope so. For those who enjoy projections, I’d bet that the playoff pool will come down to Phil, Grundy, Jack, Swave, Jason and myself. Scooter and Cristian could also make noise, but the current record will be incredibly difficult to overcome. I’m excited to ride along with you and watch the stretch run unfold.

Fun note to close this out – nearly everyone’s post-draft regrets had to do with not grabbing a sleeper player who ended up going for $5 or less. And then implying that they didn’t have enough money to get said player. People – and I’m speaking to myself here – get your guys. I know we try to wait on our guys until the end so that they become a discount, but if we overspend before we get there we are defeating the purpose. Let’s all agree to be aggressive in pursuing our guys next year (even if we have to bid on them early). Amen.

[daveandtrev]

2017 Draft Recap

Friends, Confidants, members of the Star Wars Club, I’m going to get straight to the point. It’s good to be writing to you. Mon and I are in month five of our journey around the world (if Europe was the only continent in said world) and being the guy on his computer typing every day is starting to get me weird stares (because of course the WiFi is only in the common area.) So let’s dive into a bit of draft recap and see what we can find.

Per popular request (and for those who said I wouldn’t do it until next year week 8, Mr. Grundy) I want to take a look back at some of my favorite picks right after draft day as well as what I think are the best picks looking back after six weeks. Please note that I would have liked to have made the draft day player selections before Week 1 and I will definitely make a point of selecting these picks earlier next year. For this edition, I looked back to my final draft board and found players who went cheaper than I had them valued and picked the most interesting cases. Picks I like now are the best values with the future in mind.

One last, quick note: I’ve come to really believe that draft results are the biggest indicator of season long success. This sometimes goes without saying, but I don’t think I bought into this enough until last season. Honestly, I asked myself “Why am I not winning more?” and when I looked at the previous drafts (and my preparation habits) I started to understand. With 12 teams reducing viable waiver pickups, the draft has become even more important. I have renewed vigor for draft study and therefore will be tying the draft into most of my thinking and content about our league.

Plunk - My favorite picks on draft day: Stefon Diggs at $12. (I valued him at $15 on draft day). I liked Stefon Diggs a lot and was targeting him from the start…that is until I took the plunge on two expensive RBs in the first 3 picks of the draft and all my planning got scrapped. I was a bit worried when I heard he would play on the outside more this year (as he had so much success in the slot) but really that’s just opened up longer targets and showcased the guy’s talent. He is legit and would probably be worth $25 or more if we drafted again today. His box scores going into the year remind me a lot of Golden Tate (or even TY Hilton): blow up games (150+ yards) mixed with the occasional dud and only a lack of red zone usage/efficiency keeping him from the elite tier. (He has already tripled his RZ scoring from last year. He has three TDs already in five games compared to one TD over the entire previous season. Perhaps he can make the leap.)

Now: Chris Hogan at $3. (Honorable mention to Diggs and Gurley). Gurley has been the RB2 through 6 weeks and Diggs has been the WR7, but Chris Hogan checks in at WR8 and cost a piddly $3 on draft day. He has returned incredible value thus far and should continue to dominate the Pats WR volume. This happens once or twice a year at that point in the draft, but it’s the envy of those $17 Allen Robinson bidders. And those who bought Maclin at $7,Marshall at $8 or Crowder at $10. We won’t even mention Amari Cooper at $37 who currently sits at WR76…

Soape - My favorite pick on draft day: Kareem Hunt, $27. (Valued at $30 on draft day). I wanted to put Adam Thielen here at $3. Unfortunately, even though I liked him on draft day, my final draft board says he was a $2 player. So technically he wasn’t a draft day value. Hence I land on the only player who fits the value criteria – Kareem Hunt. I hoped that nobody would know his name with the late Spencer Ware injury and he’d land in the $18-$20 range. No such luck. Soape came out of a multi year hiatus and picked the best fantasy player in the league for under $30. I won’t even try to say I thought this kind of season was coming. I definitely did not think he’d be sitting at RB1 through 6 weeks. The only reason I put him above TyMont and Cook was because I knew his competition would be near zilch with Ware out (competition was a bit unclear in the other two cases). Well done Soape.

Now: Kareem Hunt at $27. This is clearly a league winning pick if Hunt keeps it up. Soape has shaken off the rust of a year away and is absolutely loaded (He’s also sitting on Antonio Brown and Melvin Gordon. Plus Dak, a legit WR2 in Adam Thielen and Derrick Henry lurking as an absolute beast if given the opportunity.) (How many compliments do I need to give to get that Chik-fil-A bro?)

And I’m going to cheat here….

Now (1B): Adam Thielen at $3. And here is the other lucky lotto winner who has unearthed a starter for under $5. Thielen succeeded towards the end of last year and from what I read, was legitimately creating separation on his routes and beating guys (aka being good at receiver). After talks with Grundy who was worried about the O-Line, I hesitated on my initial love for the Vikes this year and ended up downgrading their offense a bit before draft day. Big mistakey. (I should know that the homers always protect themselves from disappointment. Plenty of people were up on the Bucs this year but I was not buying it myself. It’s the disappointment that comes after elevated expectations that is the true heart killer, so even though you think you’re getting a “better” opinion by talking to said homer, you’re really introducing a reverse bias. Unless you talk to Jason. From which you get, “WE’RE GONNA THRASH!!!!”)

Swave – My favorite pick on draft day: Emmanuel Sanders at $10. (Valued at $15 on draft day). Sanders had almost the same target share as DT last year and was targeted in the red zone and inside the 10 at the exact same rate as DT. And he cost $10 less on draft day. He was a solid pick then and a solid pick now.

Now: Michael Crabtree at $18. I think Sanders is still a good bargain at that price, but I prefer Michael Crabtree today. He is still scoring TDs and its only a matter of time before the Raiders offense starts clicking. He’s currently sitting at WR11. I am starting to come around (slightly) on Duke Johnson who is becoming a staple in the game plan. I annually get nervous to back these exclusive pass catching backs but one or two always end up a top-20 RB by the end of the year and Duke could be forcing his way into the conversation at a  cost of only $2.

Dave – My favorite pick on draft day: Ezekiel Elliot at $35. (Valued at $45 on draft day). So in my first draft over on ESPN with my uncle and cousins, Zeke fell to the third round. As soon as I saw him picked at 22nd overall, I knew he was a steal. I decided to make a run for him in our league and see if I could get him under $40 which I was able to do. Yes, he has risk. The suspension clearly could put a damper on things. But the upside was phenomenal. Over the years I have continually wrestled with upside vs. safety and when to pursue each. I used to love the running QBs who had “QB1 overall upside” like Vick, Kaepernick, RG3, and Cam. I would always err on the side of potential and I paid top dollar to draft them. More times than not, I got burned (drafting Vick #2 overall was the pinnacle of that thought process. It did not work out.) I don’t think the problem was pursuing these guys – I think I pursued them when they were priced the highest. Let’s face it – Zeke would have went for $50+ without a suspension. At that price, he’s a bad bet when he could miss half a fantasy season. But at $35? With the recent precedent of Brady two years back in which he played all year long through a similar suspension? I take the bet and hope he returns $50 worth of value but am not killed if he misses 6 games and turns out to only be worth around $20.

Now: Alex Smith at $1. I mean come on! We should have seen this coming right? 10 year veteran breaks out into an MVP player, tapping into the potential we always knew he had as a former #1 overall pick. He puts aside his game-manager ways to relentlessly attack defenses down the field and finally feature his stud TE. This was obvious right? Yup…sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Cristian – My favorite pick on draft day: DeAndre Hopkins at $18. (Valued at $25 on draft day). I probably moved Hopkins and Allen Robinson more than any other players on my draft board. They oscillated between $30 and $15 for a solid month and I never felt good about the spot they were in. (My final draft board had both at $25). The thing I couldn’t argue with was opportunity (which both had a ton of last year) but the thing we knew was that quarterbacks kept them down in previous seasons, and the QB situations of both teams wasn’t resolved. Looking at it six weeks in, I laugh at how we will remember this year for those two players. Robinson was a bust, Hopkins a stud. I love this, because this is the essence of fantasy football. It’s not one-strategy-fits-all.  Neither situation was better than the other on draft day (in my opinion). Yet Scooter gets burned and Cristian gets a steal. (Remember this next time you beat yourself up for your season gone amuck: fantasy football is a gambler’s game and hence you get gambler’s odds. With 12 teams its my estimate that everyone has less than a 50% chance at a playoff season, regardless of skill, and the competition in our league likely pushes that number lower (maybe 40%?) for even the most skilled players. We’ll test this thought going forward.)

Now: DeShaun Watson at $1. Yeah bro. He was the best pick on the team. He’s now starring on Jack’s team. Live by the undervalued player, die by the player who explodes after you drop him. At least he plays for the home team, right Cristian?

Monica – My favorite pick on draft day: Gronk at $28. (Valued at $30 on draft day). I also liked Demaryius Thomas at a larger discount, but I was so surprised at Gronk’s price tag (I predicted that he would go for $40) that I believe he was the best pick. The write-up on Zeke applies here. Take the risk when the price drops.

Now: Gronk at $28. I started this article last week and had Rodgers as the potential pick here. That won’t work going forward, even though I think Rodgers at $36 is a solid investment. Even after taking a 0 from a missed game, Gronk is the TE2 with a 30 point lead on the TE6. He is the #1 option on offense for New England and is the favorite to lead the position in points at season’s end.

Grundy: My favorite pick on draft day: Dalvin Cook at $19. (Valued at $25 on draft day). I told Grundy on draft night that I’d rather have Cook at $19 then TyMont at $18, both of whom I valued at $25. Offensive line issues notwithstanding, Dalvin was a massive upgrade over Vikings RBs last year and was going to be featured in the pass game. He was a good bet for work on all downs and I prefer rookies at RB (who see higher efficiency than their older counterparts.) Of course, before we see it happen on the field we are just guessing. At this price, it was a good bet that paid off before injury. (I once took Ryan Matthews in the first round when he was a rookie with the Chargers and I thought he was the next LaDainian Tomlinson. He wasn’t and I sucked that year. Even for “fantasy truths” such as rookie RBs being potentially better picks – consider the price.)

Now: Dalvin was clearly going to be the pick her pre-injury, but going forward I will pivot to Carson Wentz at $8. Wentz has made immense strides this season, vaulting the Philly pass game from the 25th ranking in Passing DVOA up to the 6th ranked team as of Week 6. (DVOA is a Football Outsiders metric which can be read about on footballoutsiders.com. It’s an efficiency metric which means that the Eagles now have a borderline elite passing offense as opposed to being among the league worst last year.) Everyone is waiting on Jameis and Mariota to make the leap – but it’s Wentz who is beating them to it. Grundy is reaping the benefits: Wentz would now fetch over $20 if we drafted today and sits as the overall QB4. (I’m imagining a wistful Jason reading this in Longview as he has collected nearly all Eagles properties without securing the most valuable piece.)

Jason – My favorite pick on draft day: Golden Tate for $11. (Valued at $20 on draft day.) I think I liked every WR that went between $10 and $12 (Sanders, Benjamin, Tate, Garcon, Diggs). Their roles were secure and I felt like most were worth $15 or more. They fell below that threshold and still I drafted exactly zero of them, leaving me with lots of post-draft regret. Tate is a stud who does everything except score double digit TDs. You’re going to get 90 catches, 1000 yards and 5 TDs no matter what. He is the guy in Detroit and he really stood out to me as a bargain when I looked over draft results for the first time. (Side note: remember when he disappeared for the first 5 games last year and he was sitting on waivers for weeks? His coaches had to come out and say he was still a priority on offense. I’m still not sure what happened – but he got his numbers by season’s end).

Now: Tate for $11. Steady as he goes. He is what we thought he was at WR13 so far. (Side note on Jason’s team: What has happened to Gilislee over the past few weeks??)

Trevor – My favorite pick on draft day: Keenan Allen at $21. (Valued at $30 on draft day). Allen has had a strange career with weird injuries. He’s torn an ACL and lacerated a kidney the last two years but has clearly been effective when healthy. I felt that those were more freak injuries than the constant nicks and bruises some players sustain (hello, Jordan Reed) and liked him quite a bit on draft day.

Now: Zach Ertz at $11. Sorry Jason, I misspoke earlier. Ertz may be more valuable than Wentz at his respective position, again showing the growth of the Eagles offense as a whole. Ertz dominated last year when Jordan Matthews was out, but small samples don’t always hold true into the next year (Kyle Rudolph dominated in a similar spot without Diggs last year, but hasn’t had the same value this year, especially without Bradford). In this case, Ertz was a clear bargain at $11 and is scoring at a much higher clip this year (his one previous knock) making him a great selection who currently tops the TE position in fantasy points. (I'll go ahead and plug him for Trevor – he’s very available for trade!)

Phil – My favorite pick on draft day: Doug Martin at $6. (Valued at $10 on draft day.) I figured he might go for $12 or $15 to someone who paired him with Quizz Rodgers or another cheap RB who could get you through the first 3 weeks. But for $6, he’s almost no risk at all. If I wouldn’t have panic drafted Maclin at $7 like a chump (and drafted an $11 WR like I wanted) I would have certainly challenged Phil on this guy. Preseason puff pieces are always something to be weary of, but the Bucs beat reporters seemed earnest on Doug being committed physically and mentally this year. Through two games, this pick looks to be on the right track.

Now: Cameron Brate at $3. Shamelessly target the home team Phil Stark. I admire your faith. Brate has gone nowhere this year despite additions of OJ Howard and DeSean Jackson, keeping his spot as the second option in the Bucs passing game. I think we need to consider the notion that he is establishing himself as a top 5 or 6 fantasy tight end (currently at TE4). Jameis loves him in the red zone and will continue to target him there and everywhere as the season progresses. (Stave Dark home team film review: Brate makes a “wow” play once or twice a game where he makes a reception with a high degree of difficulty. He’s a legitimate talent.)

Scooter: My favorite pick on draft day: Terrelle Pryor at $28. (Valued at $30 on draft day.) My pre draft thoughts: Cousins is still good and all his WRs were leaving. Pryor dominated with Cleveland and was now upgrading to a good QB on a team that wants to pass and should score points. By all accounts the guy is a physical size/speed specimen. I want to bet on guys like this. I valued him conservatively at $30 but felt his upside was top 10 at the position and simply just wanted him on my team (I told you before I’m a sucker for potential). Looking back now, I do think I should have taken two things into account. 1) New QB/WR combos take time to gel and 2) Offensive coordinator changes mean something. Sean McVay was good at his job, and we are seeing him do well with another offensive out in LA. Cousins has been merely okay without him thus far. The jury is still out here, but I absolutely bought in to the hype before the draft and thought he was a great pick.

My other favorite pick on draft day: Darren McFadden at $2. (Valued at $10 on draft day.) I was incredulous to see him go this cheap as a Zeke owner. I just ran out of money (everyone nods with empathy). I was more excited about the Pryor pick (and had more to write on it) but this pick was a great investment if Zeke were to serve his six game suspension. Picks like this can make a 2-3 win difference which can vault a team into the playoffs.

Now: Jordy Nelson at $45. This becomes much tougher to back with Rodgers down, but Hundley has shown well in the preseason before and Jordy is the best weapon on the team. He continues to have the most upside for Scooter’s team going forward.

Jack – My favorite pick on draft day: Leonard Fournette* at $20 (Valued at $25 on draft day.) I have to put an asterisk. I was scared on Fournette. Even though he was a rookie who figured to get featured usage (“fantasy truth” in the right direction) he was also on a bad team who typically see depressed running back points due to being behind on the scoreboard (“fantasy truth” in the wrong direction). He was the only player that Jack drafted who was a bargain in comparison to my auction values. So essentially I didn’t like his team on draft day. I say that for a reason: I was simply wrong. Jack is sitting at 1st overall in the league and is red hot lately as his team put up ridiculously high totals for the 4th straight week. DeShaun Watson has been the waiver pickup of the year and the Jordan Howard trade has worked out nicely thus far. This is with Martavis, Jimmy Graham, and Danny Woodhead adding little (all drafted at over $12+). But Devante is scoring, Fournette is dominant, Howard is getting fantastic volume, and the QB play is exceptional, not to mention the Jacksonville D putting up absurd stat lines. I don’t know many guys who want to win more than Jack does (or who have seen the share of fantasy disappointment that Jack has) so here’s to the scoring binge carrying on a few more weeks.

Now: Fournette at $20. It’s easy at this point. Jacksonville is not a bad team and they boast a dominant defense. I want to say they remind me of an old Ravens team, but Bortles is still 10x worse than Flacco ever was (before this year of course). Fournette is going to crush his draft value and is making a play for top 5 fantasy player in 2017 (I think Hunt, LeVeon, Antonio, and maybe Gurley or Gordon are the only other players that belong in that conversation.) Fournette is currently the overall RB3 and has outscored all WRs and TEs.

 One final thought: I believe every fantasy season has a story that cannot be told without making note of significant injuries. It’s the minefield we all play in. Which bombs are going to go off while you are standing above them? This effect uniquely defines each season as much as the draft (low hanging fruit, but I think relevant). Injuries suck in real life and in fantasy too – it isn’t really a skill to avoid them. Through Week 6, here is the scoreboard of major injuries to the game’s main pieces.

Injuries per team of players drafted for $5+: Jack 1 (Woodhead), Scooter 2 (A-Rob, Olsen), Trevor 2 (Dave Johnson, Marshall), Grundy 3 (OBJ, Cook, Luck), Monica 1 (Rodgers). That’s nine major injuries to $5+ players through Week 6. When we look at just draft dollars, Grundy is playing $84 down (although Luck may return soon) and Trevor is down $58, putting both at extreme disadvantages.

I feel this is shorter than usual but 3,700 words will have to do in the midst of globetrotting. I have some other ideas for visualizing our draft investments which I will send out when the travel schedule allows. Truly, I love being a part of this league with you guys and it has been the perfect way to stay in touch with home (‘Merica).

Ciao from Italy,

Stave Dark

[daveandtrev]

The Path to the Playoffs in the Andre Johnson Sweepstakes League

By Trevor Allison

 The seventh (!) regular season of our illustrious and forward-thinking (2 QBs, TE as Flex) league has drawn to a close. While the league has changed in a lot of ways and seen many different participants (somewhere around 20, I think) over the years, I think this has been our best season yet. The intent of this essay is to explore a little about our friends who have been lucky (and good) enough to advance to the playoffs.

 Before I dive in, let me tell you guys who may not know me a little about myself. I'm a former student at LeTourneau (2A!), a graduate of Baylor University, and currently live in Waco, TX. I'm also a former champion of this league and the beneficiary of the event our league is named after. I've also led the league in scoring before and this is the first year since 2009 I haven't made the playoffs, whatever that means. Additionally, I'm a former journalism major, so I'm supposedly good at this kind of thing (and I apparently love using parenthesis to comment on my own writing.)

 That's enough of that. Let's get started. I will review the playoff teams in the order in reverse order of season standings.

 The Michael Scarns - Phil Stark

 Record: 8-6  - Points For: 1708  -  Points Against: 1636

 Luck factor (as determined by me - this is only barely scientific or objective): Slightly bad. He finished 4th in record and 5th in scoring.

 My Take on the Season: The first thing you need to know is that Phil has been my rivalry week opponent for years and I beat him this year. Other than that, what can I say about Phil Stark that hasn't already been said? Except that getting a haircut is pretty bogus. Let those locks fly free again, Philip!

 Phil is also an original member of the league and the only one who has kept the same name every year. His best previous finish was second in 2012.

 Phil spent his money in the draft in a balanced way and had some definite hits (Fameis for $2!, Doug Martin is alive!) as well as some misses (Joseph Randle is now in jail). And there were of course, the typical Phil Stark picks of Tim Tebow, who is a QB who can't throw, and Jerryd Hayne who is Australian and had never played football before. They didn't pan out like Mike Vick in 2010, but he's in the playoffs and that's all that matters. After the draft, the Yahoo system (which is not really reliable at all) projected Phil to finish 4th.

 Phil made the fewest roster moves and seven fewer than anyone else, as well as picked up Delanie Walker to play some solid TE, which Phil himself said was his most important move. I think he was the recipient of the best injury luck this year.

 He is projected to have the third most points in the rest of the reason.

 What Needs to Happen for Phil to win the league: He's going to need a little luck out of the dismal Packers RB situation as well as Brock Osweiler to lean heavily on Demaryius Thomas. I think he's a long shot to win, but his first round opponent has somewhat of a boom or bust lineup (more on that later).

 Phil's Take: "I feel so-so about my team....I'm playing Monica in the first round and her team is red hot." He's also worried about the injury to Dalton. (Probably not as worried as Marvin Lewis.)

 Phil's Take on Phil's Hair: "Long was fun but I think short is the way to go."

 Broken or Banned - Jordan Swavely

 Record: 8-6  - Points For: 1822.5  -  Points Against: 1761

 Luck Factor: Neutral. Finished 3rd in the standings and 3rd in scoring. This is how it is supposed to happen (sorry, Blake).

 My Take on the Season: This is the first of two playoff participants who has never quite had the luck of the season match up with his skill. I also know that if this was a Tecmo Bowl league he would probably beat all of us (though I don't want to get in the middle of an argument between him and Dave about this). Also, Swavely is his own co-manager, which I think is impressive but might also be a tad hubristic.

 Swavely has also been in the league for several years, making the playoffs two previous times.

 His draft took a balanced approach, aiming for high upside and young running backs. This was a success, as he found some great deals that he combined with patience, like Todd Gurley and TJ Yeldon for $9 each as well as DeAndre Hopkins ($14) and Devonta Freeman for $5(!). Jordan said his most important move was drafting Tom Brady, which I can't disagree with. The projection system at Yahoo pegged Swavely to finish 7th on draft day.

 He made an average number of roster moves but his most important decision may have been to pick up Denard Robinson this week. His worst decision is the worst decision made in the league this year: HE DROPPED DREW BREES. But he still made the playoffs, so maybe I shouldn’t question it. (I still question it.) To be completely fair, I failed to bid a large amount because the injury made me nervous too. The brave owner who ended up with Brees will be discussed shortly.

 Finally, this playoff opportunity almost didn't happen because of a late season losing streak, but he righted the ship in week 14 against a fellow playoff contender. He has the second highest projected score of the four playoff teams.

 Jordan is confident that he will win the league and sees the playoffs as his revenge tour: "When I win in the postseason I will have exercised my regular season ghosts."

 What needs to happen for Jordan to win the league: He needs his guys to keep doing their thing. This looks like a pretty consistent team who shouldn't have trouble in the first round. My only worry is that he has several players on bad teams who may not be motivated to do well (Suck for Luck!).

 Jordan's Take on Phil's Hair: "I like Phil's hair short, but [it] sort of grew on me."

 King James - Nate James

 Record: 9-5  - Points For: 1791.5  -  Points Against: 1694

 Luck Factor: Slightly good. He finished 4th in scoring but 2nd in record. But if anyone deserves some good luck in this league, it's Nate James.

 My Take on the Season: I don't think I've ever met Nate James in person. But if I ever do, I'll probably give him a hug. Because his bad luck in this league has been truly remarkable. I'm usually a big fan of his drafts. I know he once lost two games in a single season by a point or less. I also think he's led the league in scoring without making the playoffs before (This isn't my job so I didn't have time to look it up.) In light of all of this, he's my sentimental favorite. It's time for the eternal bridesmaid to get married.

 This is at least Nate's third year in the league (I don't have all the data with me) and his first playoff appearance.

 Nate blew off his normal role as draft price enforcer this year and opted for a stars and scrubs approach. Somehow, he made the playoffs after all of his $1 players turned out to be bust. (DeAngelo Williams has been good, but mostly for Monica's team.) He also paid $2 for a defense, which is not egregious but needs to be mentioned. Despite how I felt about his draft, Yahoo had him projected to finish first on draft day.

 Nate's team was solidly consistent in the regular season and able to avoid any streakiness while making the second most roster moves in the league. The key moves in my opinion were the selling of the proverbial farm to get Drew Brees off the waiver wire ($73). This was a large chunk of his free agent auction dollars, but I don't think they could've been better spent. Also, finding Jordan Reed ($7) was impressive. I've always liked Reed, especially back when he played QB at Florida. It's a shame he ended up with Will Muschamp as his coach instead of Urban Meyer.

 All this being said, I'm not entirely sure how Nate was able to make the playoffs with this team, which is most certainly a compliment. Unfortunately, he has the lowest projected points of the remaining playoff teams.

 What needs to happen for Nate to win the league: He needs to overcome the Eagles RB quagmire and get a little bit lucky. But I, not going to lie here: the odds are against him. A championship seems unlikely, but that’s why they play the games.

 Nate was unavailable for comment.

 Khakis on Game Day - Monica Stark

 Record: 10-4  - Points For: 1915.5  Points Against: 1629

 Luck Factor: Neutral. Most points, best record. This is how it is supposed to work (sorry again, Blake).

 My Take on the Season: Monica is the nicest person I've ever met. She joined this league to fill it up in a pinch (Greg sucks!), graciously accepted relegation though she did not deserve it, earned her way back in to the top league, and has now delivered a dominating season that has set a new record for total points scored.

 This is Monica's second season in the top league and her first playoff appearance.

 Monica partially borrowed my traditional draft strategy (which messed up my draft strategy) by going for the top TE, big volume WRs, and an underrated RB. She even drafted a $1 QB who has been pretty good (Bortles). This team would make me swoon if it weren't for the stars and scrubs approach, which was not Monica's plan going in to the draft. Also, despite spending so much money on Gronk, she has no regrets: "Worth. Every. Penny." It's a rare success story of the stars and scrubs approach. Yahoo projected this team to finish 8th on draft day.

 For stars and scrubs to work, one has to be aggressive, patient, smart, and lucky on the waiver wire. Monica was all of these things, despite only making the third least amount of moves. She spent most of her free agent dollars on replacements for Jamaal Charles, which turned out to be a great investment with Charcandrick West basically producing like Charles. She thought her most important pick up was DeAngelo Williams, which she did as a handcuff when Bell was still healthy. Monica also successfully streamed her defenses every week based on matchups (I'm pretty sure she used CD Carters formula because I think she and I tried to claim the same defense several times).

 This team was and is very streaky, with a 4-0 start followed by an 0-4 stretch then finishing the season on a 6-0 run. There was also a bit of luck involved with two wins by less than five points.

 Her team is projected to score the most points by far over the next two weeks, making her the heavy favorite, at least on paper (which is the only place these games are played). Monica on her own chances: "I'm definitely winning...my team rocks. And I really want to say a woman won this league so I'm all in."

 What needs to happen for Monica to win the league: This one is simple: come close to meeting the projections. If that happens, no other playoff team has a chance of victory. However, Monica does have a bit of a boom or bust lineup, especially at QB and flex. I'm a little concerned that if a couple players have a down week the rest will not be able to carry the team.

 Monica's take on Phil's hair: "Definitely prefer long...on occasion teased out to the max."

 My Predictions:

 Semifinals: Monica beats Phil, Jordan beats Nate

 FINALS: Monica over Jordan

 Consolation Winner (5th place): Blake

 There you have it friends. It's been a long and fun season like always. Enjoy the playoffs, whether in fantasy or real life. And let me know if you or someone you know is interested in playing fantasy baseball this year.

[daveandtrev]

The Rundown - Week 12

Its 11/22 as I sit down to write this – frankly it’s later than it should be. You gotta give the people what they want. There’s no getting around that. I’ve spoken with several of you who have asked about the reading material politely enough, but I don’t buy it – you’re angry and disappointed. You’re miffed and you feel jipped. “Why haven’t we seen a draft breakdown yet?” “Does he care about us anymore?” “He keeps talking about Daily Fantasy, but he never seems to say that he’s winning any money”, or the occasional “Is he even in our league?” (But really, I only knew one of you in middle school, and that was Phil Stark, and we get along much better now.)The last question is especially valid with Just Rebuild It? sitting one game out of relegation. It’s been that kind of year. To these questions, I just answer with “Its time.” To those of you asking none of these questions, understand this: The farther I feel backed into the corner with your “questions”, the better and sharper my mind will be to present you with awesome information and analysis. So let me prepare as though these “questions” are being asked and I will be able to channel all of my energy into the reading material that you guys have requested. (This thinking is posited all the time as a catalyst for better play in sports – why can’t I use it here?)

So for real now – let’s get to it:

The Draft Review

Every draft night I probably sit at my computer for another 2 hours after the draft to evaluate what the hell just went on. The hundreds of split second decisions typically leave me drained, especially with our draft time at 9:30PM these last two years. (Nate James, you looking at a day job sometime soon?) But also it’s my time to catch up with Trevor and hang out with my wife as I do something that I love to do. For those that participate in the 5-6 man Google Hangout, this is me coming clean – I can’t concentrate enough to draft while trying to catch up with everyone at once here. I will spend more time laughing and harassing you guys than I will think about my picks. (As opposed to Grundy, who admitted to taunting the room this year. I’m glad you are putting good use to your killer instinct.) This year, it wouldn’t have mattered either way. I found out two things about myself through this draft. The first occurred after I grabbed two running backs that I felt were underpriced (Trying to be the “value police” can leave you with a team you aren’t thrilled with at the end of the draft). Since I planned on grabbing two high priced WRs, I needed a new plan. And since I had a general value list, I thought it would solve itself and I would grab some middle tier guys. Since I was hunting values and presuming everything would work itself out, I failed to develop a range of money that I wanted to spend on my top WRs. So as I let pick after pick go bye, including some obvious values, I ended up with too much money to spend on inferior options. By the time I snapped out of it (pick 100 or so) I started grabbing every veteran WR left on the board – VJax, Decker, and Roddy White. This was not good. I still had too much money left so I splurged on Blount, on whom I only moderately liked, at $10 at a RB spot that I already had a ton of depth at. Yeah. I am really bad at making a secondary plan. I can craft an initial plan all day long that will go great as long as everything lays out as I expect. But if things go differently (the two high priced RBs), I often fail to adjust on the fly (not getting a good WR). I had never seen it so plainly. The other lesson? The reason I let obvious values pass – I was sitting in the room with my wife and talking with Trevor on the phone. Turns out, I really like these guys. And when I share information with them, it’s tough for me to challenge them on players we agree on that turn out to be bargains. I loved Brandon Marshall at $14, I loved Julian Edelman at $14, and I was high on Allen Robinson too who went for $15. But I was so excited for the people in my room to get good deals on players that I never actually grabbed one. Second lesson: I’m really just a nice guy who likes to see my friends have success. Neither revelation is necessarily crippling for everyday life (and you could argue that the second is an endearing quality. And if you agree, thank you!). Both are crippling for fantasy drafting. I’m sure you guys have a story too, and I’d love to hear it. Let’s do that soon.

Here is how I ranked the teams on draft night:

1) Phil Stark

2) Scooter Nelson

3) Trevor

4) Jason

5) Grundy

6) Dave

7) Nate

8) Mon

9) Swave

10) Jack

It’s funny, it is. You can laugh. It always looks funny this far out.

Here’s what I liked:

Phil Stark – dude, this is the first year you’ve made it out of the bottom 3 in my preseason predictions. Fantastic draft. You set up your team exactly how I planned on setting up mine – two stud WRs, a strong QB, and 4 upside RBs in the 10-20 dollar range. This is a recipe for success with everything I’ve researched.

Scooter – Sanders and Alshon start that strong WR core that I like and Allen was a nice bounce back candidate. I liked Manning plenty and thought Mariota had sneaky upside with his rushing ability. Add a consistent RB like Lynch and I liked the balance throughout your team.

Trevor – For not spending up for WRs, you still ended up with so many that I liked. That included the aforementioned Edelman and A-Rob plus Mike Evans. I thought Hill was one of the safer RBs on the board and $33 was a killer price. Lamar Miller was someone I was personally higher on than most and we all know that J-Stew just needs the backfield to himself (and health) to be a monster. Finish that with Kelce and your patented Bradford + Cutler QB combo which works even when I think it won’t, and this was a playoff team to me. Looking back, Culter went for $2? Was he that bad last year?

Jason – I didn’t feel like your team had a weakness. You have Forsett and Gore at RB, Bryant and Maclin at WR and the flex is a choice between Hyde and The League Namesake. I was high on the Colts this year including the new parts of the offense. Add in Olsen and a Ben/Kaepernick combo (I’m always partial to Colin) and I thought this team had good outs in case picks went wrong.

Grundy – As I look at my post draft notes, I’m realizing that I have two sets of rankings. Both have about a million “scribble throughs” as I organized my thoughts. One was a pure ranking set, whereas the other focused on strength and weaknesses of the teams. Honestly, I don’t remember which set was my final set, but this team was either 5th or 2nd. As I look back now, I’m thinking I would have put this higher team higher than 5th – with a no doubt top 5 player in AP, plus a top WR tandem in OBJ (where is the love, he was a stud last year!) and AJ Green (I can never draft him and it’s definitely a bias). Foster was definitely intriguing. I was off him when I heard that he tore his groin off the bone, but Grundy did his research and knew that this would grow back stronger. Ivory was a guy I was hearing good things about as well. Sprinkle in Matt Ryan and Eli Manning and I felt that this was an extremely balanced team, well equipped for a loss of a player or two.

Dave – I think I’ve said before that if you don’t think your team is the best team after draft night, you’re simply doing it wrong. I did it wrong. I went in depth about the feelings on my team above and it holds true here. Not enough WR depth. I will say that I was thrilled to get Le’Veon Bell, Tony Romo, Jordan Matthews, and Carson Palmer. And I thought Mark Ingram was an interesting get at his price. I didn’t like much else. Please, do not build your team like this. Quick trigger, bad execution, bad secondary plan, too many nice people in the room. It tastes like regret.

Nate – You do you Nate. Grab that Seattle defense at $2. Ignore the naysayers who won’t spend more than a buck. Grab your advantage early. I love it. Overall I had no issue with your players – I really liked all of them outside of Cooks and maybe Murray. But guys like Tannehill, Luck, Julio – studs in my mind (yes even Tannehill, I saw growth this year). I just haven’t seen the studs and scrubs strategy work out in my draft analysis in years past so I put you here. I will say that a big oversight on my part was DeAngelo Williams – pegged to start the first two games, I figured he was out of gas from the Carolina days. But for a buck, you nabbed a day one starter on a solid running team. Well done.

Mon – You had the same theme as Nate, except he spent his money on 6 guys – most of your money was spent on 5. This rank is purely in line with how the draft dollars were spent (Studs/Scrubs), and not where they were spent. Steve Smith Sr. though. He makes his own rules and regulations.

Swave – I’ve been tracking how much everyone spends on starting players since we started our auction in 2012. It’s an interesting study in draft dollars that I started in hopes of finding the optimal strategy. This team makes me want to throw that out the window. Take a look at the chart below:

Teams going Bench Heavy typically don’t make the playoffs – only Grundy’s team in 2013 that went 11-3 while scoring the 5th most points in the league has done it to date. Swavely not only went bench heavy – he set a record by only spending $138 on starting players, breaking his own mark of $144 spent in 2013. (That team finished 3-11). I think he had a good idea by trying to game the market by nabbing 4 QBs, but unfortunately found no takers before the week 5 deadline to cut down to 3 QBs. (Disclaimer – I would have traded for Brees. It never hurts to send a text to everyone – even a group text when you’re shopping someone). Data be damned – Swavely sits in 1st place at this writing with the most points scored in the league. Good things happen when you draft Todd Gurley and DeVonta Freeman for $14 combined. And a budding DeAndre Hopkins at $14. And Brady on his revenge campaign at $20. Seriously, in terms of value picks, Swavely's draft was phenomenal and quite possibly unprecedented.  

Jack – This was a rough one – only 3 players drafted above $11. I don’t hate the value approach but I find it hard to have success without top tier players. There were still gems unearthed here though – Jack nabbed Cooper at a reasonable price and hit big on Eifert at TE. Jarvis Landry was a straight up steal for $1 - he’s 10 points in the bank every week (10 games played, 8 games over 10 points. The other 2 he scored 8.) I do feel bad for CJ Anderson owners – count me among the duped. I was certain he was primed for a monster year and would have absolutely spent $42 on him if he fell to that price point.

 So there you have it. An instant reaction on the draft that leaves me with more questions than answers. Prepare, research, strategize – sometimes the chalk picks don’t pan out. This year is especially telling – those two studs and scrubs teams are tied for the best record in the league with Swavely’s team that I left for dead on day one. If I’m completely honest, I was convinced that I only had eight teams left to beat on the day of the draft and was preparing an obituary for Swave’s A-league farewell.  It would be like the Korea year all over again. And then it wasn’t.

On thinking about the draft, I’m always curious how to measure its effectiveness on the season. Here’s a couple of maybe relevant tables that I find interesting:

A note on this table – these numbers are all pre-Week 12. I’ve also excluded players that are rostered but not expected to play any more in the fantasy regular season which concludes in week 14. (This includes Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck). I set the regular season cutoff date in most studies because I’m most interested in seeing what results in a playoff berth – I feel that this is the goal that is most likely to be obtained by skill. So what do we see? If you have a large amount of injuries or flat out busts, you lose. I think it’s that simple. You can even partially explain the outliers here – Monica has benefitted by obtaining backup RBs who have become workhorses (DeAngelo Williams, Charcandrick West) and Jack still has CJ Anderson rostered whom he may not play the rest of the year, which would give him only $115 of draft dollars still on his team. Trevor has had a solid schedule, but his Points Scored Rank is right in line with his remaining draft dollars. Speaking of schedules:

  This is one of my favorite charts every year to look at – the “lucky” chart. Perennial complainers about other teams having their best games while playing them (you know who you are) should cringe here. Unless you are Swave or Nate – you are not that unlucky. The luck evens out long term. (Side note – the Yahoo Recaps are a great way to find yourself feeling “jipped” as they barrage you with useless descriptive stats. I don’t care if you’ve lost to the team that’s lead the league in scoring every week – part of that reason is because they have better players than you do. Even the general “points against” column can be deceiving – there’s a reason why the worst teams in the league have the highest points against – the good players are on the other teams!) I think a great case of the “luck” would be Grundy’s team. If you take a glance at the Points For chart, you see Grundy is in 4th. But the chart above says Grundy has won as many games as he should have won. Simply put, the team is high variance. This team owns 2 of the 4 highest scores for one game this year. The next highest score is the 42nd highest score with 130. He’s got 4 scores in the 114 to 119 range, so the team has been undoubtedly consistent. The team just doesn’t have the same floor of teams around it (and hasn’t gotten the Phil or Trevor “luck”) which leaves it likely to miss the playoffs.

The last study here is something I go back and forth on. On one hand you see an article like this: http://www.rotowire.com/football/showArticle.htm?id=17725. (I know its old, but this has the best graphical interpretation I’ve seen, and Jonathan Bales is fantastic.) On the other hand, I read a paragraph like this:

In 2014… look at where some of the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points were selected in the preseason (or as in-season pickups): Wilson (No. 3 in fantasy points, No. 10 in ADP), Roethlisberger (No. 5, No. 21), Tannehill (No. 9, No. 22), Eli Manning (No. 10, No. 17), Joe Flacco (No. 13, No. 19) and Derek Carr (No. 20, undrafted). That's six of 20 (or 30 percent) who returned a good amount of profit on your investment, which is pretty good odds considering the volatility of quarterbacks as a whole after the top 12-14 or so.

(Full article here:  http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/13093227/a-guide-playing-two-quarterback-league-fantasy-football)

Really, the truth probably lies here: http://www.si.com/fantasy/2015/08/27/fantasy-football-2015-draft-preview-two-quarterback-leagues. Each season is different and different strategies can work during different years. Let’s look at our league since we’ve gone to two QBs:

  I’m actually surprised. I typically think of the playoff champion and their QB prowess – maybe I’ve missed something. Let’s look at Champions.

  That’s more along the lines of what I was thinking. Disclaimer – all of these ranks are season ending numbers from Pro Football Reference and could be off by a spot or two. I dug into this because I’ve seen so many struggles this year from QB that I began wondering what formula had success. Clearly, spending up at QB this year did not guarantee success:

  This could be a weird year, in the same way that 2012 was the year where everyone was convinced that you should take QBs with the first five picks of the draft after 2011 had so many good QB performances. So there’s probably value in spending up next year, as the turnover and injuries are unlikely to be this severe. (Hey Swave, have some faith in Brees would ya?)

I am running short on time, both for this article as well as the season itself but I know that the people want their playoff predictions. It has to be done. I apologize for the lack of depth that these will get, but here’s my best stab:

Playoff Predictions

Championship game – Broken or Banned vs. Khakis On Game Day

I want to see Nate James get some respect. After all, he’s always good for it. (“Come on man, I’m Nate James”.) The injury to Luck and the fact that Forte is now in a timeshare scare me too much. The Eagles are imploding, which submarines Murray’s value as well. In the end, I see a Gurley/Hopkins/Brady/Freeman matchup against Brown/Williams/Gronk/Bortles(!) in the championship game to take home the money and the title.

Consolation game – King James vs. Carter Thrift Store

At least we will get you into the playoffs Nate. This prediction is heavily based on upcoming schedule – Trevor has games against Jason, Zach and then Grundy. I see at least two wins there with a chance for 3. Phil has to play three 7-4 teams. Anything is possible, but I’d say a 1.5 expected win share is most likely, with him being pretty happy if he can pull out 2 of those. I will say that if I knew Phil would win 2, I’d take him with both the current tiebreaker and more expected points scored the rest of the way. That 4th spot is what I feel is most up for grabs.

Just missed – The Michael Scarns, Coach Davis Allstars

If Grundy’s team was at 6-5, he would be my fourth playoff team. I really think he has a great shot to run the table. But 8 wins just won’t win a playoff spot this year – the league is too top-heavy. He would most likely need either Phil or Trevor to drop out, but with Trevor’s cream puff schedule and Phil’s solid team, I just don’t see both teams dropping 2 games down the stretch.

7th and 8th never felt so good – TheMondayNightsWatch, Just Rebuild It?

Jack, you can breathe easy. The early season swoon is over and you should be safe from the relegation talk. I’m much more nervous in my case – I don’t have a slam dunk win the rest of the way. But as bad and injured as my team is, Jason and Zach are right there with me. I think threes a good chance that none of these last three teams win a game this year outside of week 14 where CelektnNameErtzMyHed matches up against CronicMasterdeflater in what could have big ramifications for next year’s league.

Don’t Relegate My Heart – CelektnNameErtzMyHed, CronicMasterdeflater

Prediction for new entrants next year: Coach Plunk and Cristian Driver (To give a quick peek to what’s going on in The Whiskery Phil Division, click here: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/704304). Football Clinic is Plunk and Cristian’s Team is Cristian. Soape is in 2nd with the Wheaties team and the Infiltrators belonging to Calvin are lurking in 4th.

Good luck down the stretch run!

[daveandtrev]

A quick apology followed by 4000 other words

First an apology. I have not been faithful. I have strayed from my first love into the arms of a more alluring mistress. Men, you know me as your champion of fantasy football, the commander in chief of the “caring about things that don’t really matter” brigade. I have served you with my whole heart for many years with the purest intentions. I come to you now in a “late to the party and forgot the gift” feeling that I can’t shake. Confession time: I have fallen for Ms. Daily Fantasy Sports. It’s true. I had grand plans of weekly videos, more frequent blogs for you guys to read, maybe even coming up with a trophy. Heck I started the call to name our league and then totally went AWOL before getting anything finalized. The allure of Daily Fantasy Sports was too much. I am a part of the legion of gamers who thought they could turn a profit if they could just use all that fantasy knowledge a little more often. So how is it working out? Well…I’d like to think I’m on the learning curve, that figuring this thing out will take an initial investment of time and money. So far, 13 weeks in, I invested $100 and am now sitting at $110. Which is actually solid considering I was down to $50 before the Thanksgiving games. Not good, not bad. The time portion on that has been a heavy setback, and the opportunity cost is time spent providing great league content to you guys. Know that it is in my heart to pursue both: tangent fantasy opportunities as well as being the best dang commissioner this side of Smokin’ Joe Carroll. Because that league involves couch sitting, bed sharing, and all things college that we still miss.[1]

To the meat! Bring the finest dish to my men!

I know it's late in the year, but let’s take a look at how I predicted the teams after draft night:

Playoff Teams: Trevor Allison, Swavely, Nate James, Dave Stark

Thanks for playing, but the train stops in Week 14: Jack Holmer, Phil Stark, Jason, Cristian Driver

Relegation: Grundy, Greg

Are you offended? You should be. Everyone should slot themselves into the playoffs after draft night. If you didn’t, you were underprepared and self-aware (unlikely), or you are lying. I did not like my draft. But I sure as hell thought I was playoff bound. A big reason behind my Gronk pick was that feeling that I wasn’t nailing it, and needed a home run. I needed upside, variance. I’m pleased with the returns in hindisght but the point is that at some point in the draft you may get caught off guard and feel the need to increase your exposure to risk in order to have access to greater rewards. I was fortunate in that case, but this year I am beginning to believe that a balance of safe and risk is a hidden key on draft day. When you are too far out one way (as I felt like Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ryan Mathews were safe, low-upside guys), the best move may be a quick swing to the other.

A couple of notes on the draft – Trevor knows the secret lies with running backs who catch passes. Maybe I’m spoiling that right now, but we’ve been playing an awful long time not to notice what he’s been up to. Swavely had one of the most balanced teams with two high upside QBs who run. Throw in a Denver wide receiver and I was impressed. This is probably the first time post-Korea where I liked your team on draft night. Good work. Nate James, whose teams have been the opposite of all things fair and just in the past, drafted another solid team. I was pretty nervous on Foster but I liked your value pick of Harvin. The Ryan/Stafford combo was probably my favorite of all teams. Jack, although dooming his team to an early season exit with a prophetic team name, had a sound draft in my opinion. Foles and Brady are steady if not spectacular and Zac Stacy was not getting enough love. Loved the value with Roddy as well. Phil, you weren’t my least favorite team! It just so happened that I liked some of “your” players like Crabs and Kaepernick. Peterson was a steep price but almost guaranteed a top 3 floor. And the flier on Maclin was one I knew I’d be watching. It’s a shame nobody drove up the price on Jason for Calvin’s Jaunski. We know he loves him. He’s paid $49+ 2 years in a row! Do we know his limits? One of our braver bidders should see if he can pry a $60 out of him. Murray was a high upside risk, and I did not believe Luck/Cutler could be consistently great. Which turned out very wrong. Grundy is nothing if not loyal to his Minnesota Vikings, snapping up 3 of them. I really liked Brees, thought he may have a better season than Manning. I thought nothing of the rookie receivers like Sammy Watkins at the time, and believed there was no way Rivers could repeat. Greg went super running back in an era where I had little to no trust in them. I used a similar strategy in a family league last year that led to an 0-9 start. He also went studs and scrubs in a way that I was very nervous to do after some research on past drafts. But the man is convincing and had me believing that he might be on to something as the only one to employ this specific strategy. Often times, it pays to go against the grain.

Other fun draft notes that I conjured up from my pre-draft research (I can’t help but share):

In 2012, $444 was spent on quarterback. In 2013 the league spent $405.

The top 5 teams by year-end points had 59% of that in 2012[2]. They then had 40% in 2013.

  In 2012, $641 was spent on running back. In 2013 the league spent $803.

The top 5 teams had 54% of that in 2012. They then had 49% in 2013.

  In 2012, $670 was spent on wide receiver. In 2013 the league spent $625.

The top 5 teams had 41% of that in 2012. They then had 55% in 2013.

  In 2012, $149 was spent on tight end. In 2013 the league spent $89.

The top 5 teams had 34% of that in 2012. They then had 61% in 2013.

What’s interesting about this? In every case except QB, the top 5 teams spent a greater percentage on positions in years when fewer dollars were spent on them[3]. I know this is a two year sample, but still, its worth monitoring. Spending up for the (relatively) scarce resource seems to be a viable strategy. Of course you still have to hit on the right players, but this is definitely a tidbit I will keep in mind when listening to industry experts say “year of the QB” or “Cant trust RBs this year”. I’m definitely interested to see if this phenomenon continues. (Kickers and Defenses are still unpredictable, paying up isn’t a viable strategy).

For the record, here’s how money was spent this year:

QB = $443

RB = $636 (3 year low)

WR = $743 (3 year high)

TE = $133

Greg, your three $40 RBs may have been a viable strategy after all.

I looked back at my previous posts in years past and saw that handicapping the playoff race was my typical schtik. I realize after re-reading them that these are entertainment only – I don’t think I have any real ability to predict the outcomes. Maybe that goes without saying, but I think I’ve convinced myself previously that I was tuned into the pulse of “what was going to happen”. In truth, this is a highly variant game with variable outcomes beyond our predictive powers…What’s that, you like being entertained? Gotcha – to the predictions!

(Side note, my wife just made me a salad at 10:30PM. What a woman!)

(2nd Side note: I had over 1000 words written about this 6 weeks ago. Because I never finished (Daily Fantasy stole me away), I am re-writing this section. My week 8 selections for the curious folks were playoffs for Trevor, Jason, Nate. 4th playoff spot decided on last weekend between Greg, Dave, Swave. And then Grundy, Christian, Jack, Phil fighting to stay in the league. I feel good about those in retrospect)

Driver’s Seat: Sigma Upsilon lota, The Arab & The Shaker

The playoffs run through these two teams. Sigma Upsilon started strong at 5-1 with a 178 point showing in Week 6 to establish itself as team to beat. Gio and Julius Thomas were healthy starters. As in real football, peaking too early can be dangerous. Sigma Upsilon is 4-3 since and last topped 120 points (the Stave Dark standard for a win) in 4 weeks. Part of the success (or hindrance) of Trevor’s team over the years is his bottom barrel quarterback approach. This year’s crop is another testament to the zeroQB strategy: Trevor ranked 9th in average QB points per week at 15.2. Check out who has started for Sigma Upsilon this year: Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, Blake Bortles, Mark Sanchez. Who possibly scored less than that? Glad you asked – The Arab & The Shaker finished even lower at 14.3 QB points per week. Kudos to Cam Newton, who has 2(!) 20 point games to his name this year.Carson Palmer and Nick Foles accomplished that by playing in 8 games or less. Its bad in Carolina right now. QB production is a fickle mistress: Rodgers, Brees and Manning are currently on teams in the bottom half of the league. Those 3 received the most auction dollars on draft day. I did not see that coming, and in effect these two owners were rewarded for patience on draft day by loading up at the other positions

The Path of Least Resistance: MrJacksonsNayburHood

Win and youre in. Simple as that. I see those dancin’ shoes being dusted off in the closet. Its close. Ill say this – one way to make me a believer that you’ve “made the leap” as an owner is to make consecutive playoff appearances. Roger, prepare for landing. Just promise me you’ll make a Fred Randall-like entrance this year. Seriously, I want a Skype session Monday night when Matt Ryan throws his final interception in Lambeau. Or a recording on your phone with your wife…sorta like this old gem I just dug up. Heh. Seriously though, Andrew Luck isn’t ready? He isn’t to that top tier yet? Don’t take him until the 5th or 6th round in your fantasy draft? Good night. Remember this as you are evaluating talent for the draft next year – guys who are no-doubt stars may become them before the public is aware. Im not talking about the Zach Ertz or Justin Hunter types – those are media stars. Everyone who has evaluated Luck knows hes going to be awesome. So a gamble on an up and comer who has the right tools can pay off nicely. Well done Jason. Cutler was a great grab too. Overall, this team has averaged 21 points per game at the QB position, 2.4 points per game higher than any other team. This is what most are trying  to do with the draft but neither QB was rated very high pre-draft. The scary thing is, this team has Calvin Johnson back from injury and DeMarco Murray who is putting his real-life team on his back in a close playoff race (40+ touches Thursday!). Plus a top 5 TE in Greg Olsen. Nobody wants to face this team next week.

Swavely,Oh Swavely: ER Ward

 Left for dead after week 2 (Confession: You were a relegation favorite of mine in talks around the league), what this team has displayed since is quite surprising. How have they pulled off the 2nd highest point total after such a dismal start? Wide receivers and defense. And look at the value on these guys! $24 for Sanders at draft day. $5 for Hilton. Mathews picked off the scrap heap. Phenomenal. The Jeffery/Lacy swap has swung several times in terms of a winner, so I won’t hold that against him either. Patience with Charles and a quietly top 5 QB in Russell Wilson. Top that off with three 20 point DEF performances by the Eagles, and I believe this team can score with anyone in a given week. Win and you’re in, simple as that.

The Fast-fading Enigma: King James

This can’t happen again, can it? I feel that this has been a top tier team for the majority of the year. Out of anyone here, this has to be the best owner to never make the playoffs. Actually he is. Every other team has made the playoffs once. I don’t want to believe that’s true. Get this guy some positive regression! A great example: he followed up a 5-2 start by scoring 149.50 (season high), 143 (3rd highest), and 141.50(4th highest this year) over the next 5. And lost every time. Digging a little deeper here, take a look at the last three years to see what kind of roller coaster ride this team endures year in and year out:

2011: 3-7 going into Week 11. Goes on a 4 game winning streak to end the year and finishes 7-7 with the fourth most points in the league. He also never scores under 100 the entire season, the only team to accomplish that.

2012: 4-5 going into Week 10. Goes on a 5 game losing streak to end 4-10. Has most points scored against for the season.

2013: 4-4 going into Week 9. Loses every game to finish on a 6 game losing streak to record a 4-10 campaign. Scores only 50 season points less than the first place team (!)

Here’s the point. One way or another, the break hasn’t come.  They’ve come for every other person in the league at one point (Even though, like Jack’s Hurricane Ditka in 2011, they sometimes break the other way too). And here we sit. 7-6 and facing a ridiculous 57 point deficit going into Sunday’s games. With apologies to MrJacksonsNayburHood, I am unashamedly pulling for THE Nate James. If youre going to break into the dance, this is certainly the way to do it. When nobody expects it. You need to beat Jason by more than 39 or have Swave lose and then pull out a win. Matt Ryan on Monday Night will decide it. In Lambeau against Green Bay. Garbage time heroics folks, they are real. (See Andre Johnson, circa 2010.)

Speaking of which, there was absolutely no consensus on league names. Not even a hint of shared sentiment. Heres my proposition: Any 3 words from this all-timer. In seriousness, what do we do? I typed in the combined version of our choices “Pizza at Sally’s: The Andre Johnson Sweepstakes” which obliterated the 30 character maximum (Yahoo kills me with their name limitations. ESPN next year?) (Just kidding, don’t get excited Trevor). We’re down to “The Andre Johnson Sweepstakes”, “My Dinner with Sally at Andre’s”, “ Pizza with Andre at Sally’s”, or some awkward combo of “PAS: The AJ2K Sweepstakes”. Thoughts?

There will be a next year: Peyton’s Audibles, Khoury’s Gentiles

6th and 7th place never seemed so nice. Sorta like a warm blanket after you’ve been dumped by your girlfriend and had a flat tire on the side of a highway in the pouring rain on the way to your in-laws. At least you have that blanket! Other guys are getting evicted. I’m sure that’s no consolation in a season of could-haves, but we knew it had to be someone after the logjam had 7 teams between 5-5 and 7-3 after Week 10. We would have had an even tighter race if not for Kelvin Benjamin scoring 2 TDs in the last 5 minutes of the Panthers game when they were already down 49-3. An unfortunate break for Khoury’s Gentiles on Monday night of rivalry week. (Andy Dalton also put up a goose egg on Thursday of that week but Marshawn Lynch dropped 40! What a weird game.) The Montee Ball draft pick was the big killer, but I will admit – I was very high on him as well. The Gates drop was killer too – he had a top 5 TE season but instead, Greg finished 8th on the year in TE points per game at 6.4. Beast Mode was a heck of a pick as many had written him off before the season. You win some, you lose some. Peyton’s Audibles had a really volatile year. He drafted Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, and A.J. Green. They have a total of nine 15+ point performances which is very solid. But they also had fifteen games under 5 points, not including bye weeks. You lived and died by these guys. I didn’t peg them as high variance before the year, and still don’t know what to make of them long term outside of Green. The great moves were hopping up to grab both Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson off of waivers – they were everything Montee Ball was supposed to be and more. The Brees/Rivers combo has to be a little disappointing with how well they were showing at the beginning of the year. Again, strange. This team had the least explainable results this season – and that includes the 4-1 start. Whatever. Greg and Grundy have made the playoffs in every other year they have played and I expect that streak to continue next year – don’t sleep on these guys.

Relegate me softly: Wham Bam Michael Sam, TheresAlwaysNextYear, The Michael Scarns

Well, this is what the people wanted. As I look at the inevitable, the competitive part of me still loves this idea, as I’m now closely watching the playoff race and relegation race (maybe relegation plummet is a better term?). The other part of me (without glasses) will miss the camaraderie of our close group. Everyone in our current league has played with us at least 3 of the 6 years that we’ve played. I like our group and I’m sad that we will be apart. I just want you to know that I’m not trying to cruelly condemn anyone to a black hole of banishment. With that being said, I’m excited to see what adding some new faces does to the top league and what some smart guys can do when they face the challenging format employed in our B league. I expect to see people come and go and for us to expand out to include more people. My hope is that the competition is ratcheted up another level.

What do you say here? When two out of the three guys you pay $40+ for fail to show up, this happens. I still think Cristian had a decent team, but only one stud gets you around 5 wins. His rank in WR/RB/TE is 10th, 9th, and 9th respectively in fantasy points per game. Interestingly, this team had the top K+DEF points per game at 23.1 combined, with second place coming in at 19.5. So he SMOKED the competition in those areas. The hardest to capture. The trick? Use one kicker all year and one defense until bye week, then pick up another. That was the strategy that yielded the best score at those positions by a mile. Count me as surprised. With Jack, there was Nick Foles, and Zach Stacy, and Reggie Bush. And Johnny Football never making a start. (Surprised again). You probably did the best out of trades, netting Lacy, Tate, and Denard Robinson for Alshon and Kelvin. You were literally involved in every trade. We had 2 this year. Incredible – draft is so so so so so important which is why I continually make references back to it. Even waivers don’t make heroes every year. Oh yeah, one more thing. The OBJ pickup. Great foresight. This is undoubtedly the year of the rookie WR. That’s typically one of my signs to stay away but this year reversed all the trends. And of course, we need to see that catch one more time. Finally, there comes the least fortunate team this year in Phil’s. I imagine plenty of AP owners are in the same spot – you just don’t recover easily when your stud first rounder doesn’t play. Rodgers came on too late, Kaepernick and Crabtree regressed significantly, and Andre Johnson finally got passed up by DeAndre Hopkins (great pick btw for Cristian). Welker flatlined (surprised thrice!) CJ2K did nothing, MJD did nothing, Kendall Wright did nothing, even Michael Vick couldn’t do anything. Jeremy Maclin had a monstrous stretch and Mike Evans was solid but took too long to get there. Phil Stark, I look forward to a massive campaign where you rekindle your rivalry with the Pain Train and come back stronger than ever, still picking your favorite players and making the rest of us look like fools. I wouldn’t have it any other way. Best of luck next year, brother.

Before we say adieu, I’d like to pass out some extremely arbitrary and subjective awards. Lets hit it!

Best in-season waiver pickup: Justin Forsett, ER Ward. He cost $40 but had an impact throughout the season. I thought this would devolve into a timeshare but he clearly outpaced Pierce and Taliaferro. Not only that, Forsett had done nothing with similar opportunities before. Go figure. The following players had short spurts that would have gotten the award for more consistent play or more games played: Antonio Gates (close second), Ahmad Bradshaw (could have won it if he would have stayed healthy), Steve Smith (a strong fourth), Matt Asiata, Knile Davis, Alfred Blue, Jeremy Hill, Mark Ingram, Tre Mason, Denard Robinson, Dwayne Allen, Mike Evans, all Browns RBs, all Broncos RBs, Martavis Bryant, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Brandon Oliver, OBJ, Jordan Mathews. You could have definitely strung together RBs week by week if you had to. Not nearly as much luck at the other positions – the pickings were scarce.

Worst use of FAAB money: Eddie Royal, $42, MrJacksonsNayburHood. Honorable mention: Jonas Gray, $30 ER Ward. Not to single out the owners, these situations were definitely interesting. Eddie Royal teases us every year and still is unable to sustain success. But dang he looks good catching TDs early season. Additionally, Jonas Gray fooled everyone with his 1 game wonder before not even receiving a carry the next game! Bill Belichick, who hates fantasy football, wins again.

Most stubborn in-season hold: Josh Gordon, King James. Had to be. I can’t believe he held him for that long. But if he gets to the playoffs, that’s 14.5 targets a game coming at a dynamic playmaker. You have to love that. I was skeptical but it could pay off in spades.

Best handcuff draft pick: None. Unlike the industry, none of our guys are big on the “handcuffing” strategy with RBs. I certainly don’t subscribe to this either, because you end up sitting on guys who may not even be the guy once the backup plays. Or it may even turn into a timeshare like what happened in Cleveland (Crowell, West), Minnesota (Asiata, Mckinnon), Tampa (Rainey, Sims when Martin is out), or New England (a new guy every week). Even when Bradshaw went down, T-Rich didn’t get a full load, but a practice squad guy (Herron) took a spot in the timeshare. I suppose the Bengals, Texans, and Chiefs are good handcuffing situations but what would the Eagles, Packers, or Steelers look like? It would have to be some sort of timeshare right? I wouldn’t buy on Polk, Starks, or Archer. (Although Starks has the best shot). Regardless, this is a limited strategy that I think our league has played correctly.

Obligatory blurb for the relegation league: Scooter Nelson, owner of Plastered Penguins, has run away with The Whiskery Phil League regular season with an impressive 11-2 record. Listen to this team: Andrew Luck, Demaryius Thomas, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, and now Josh Gordon. Forsett rides the pine. Holy smokes. All teams will be participating in the playoffs, so we have quite a bit of things left to decide here. Eric Anderson secures the other first round playoff bye with the aptly named Anderson’s Team. Playoffs start in Week 15 with the first round and conclude with a Week 17 championship. Keep in mind that this year’s last place finisher, which will be Joel Soape unless he wins the playoff, will get to make a rule change for next year’s relegation iteration. Here’s to good fortune in the 3 week race to move up the ladder!

And with that, we’re through. I apologize for the extra long version of this, but the fact that this is coming so late in the season brings several facets that we needed to discuss. I love and miss you guys – and would love to make a Texas live draft a reality for one of our upcoming seasons. Will have to see where everyone is at and what accommodations we can make (Swave, you up to drive down?) Also want to get group texting going. Ive been debating it for over a year (since it can be annoying at times) but I want more interaction on Sundays. That looks to be the best way to accomplish it.

 Its been a pleasure men. Good luck, Go Noles, Go Bucs, Go #TeamStaveDark, and Go Jesus. Mandate Forever.

  Cheers!

[1] If you are interested in starting up with Daily Fantasy, grab my referral links before you join up! Draftkings and FanDuel are the industry leaders and great places to learn.

[2] I used top 5 teams in this case because this is the sampling in which playoff teams come from. We have had two 5th place teams in terms of total year-end points make playoffs the last two years. Greg in 2012, Grundy in 2013.

[3] In 2012, two players spent $4 and $6 respectively on both QBs combined. One (or both, I can’t remember) of them did not attend the draft. This undoubtedly made an impact, and I think it goes without saying that winning with two sub $5 QBs is extremely tough.

[daveandtrev]

Week 8 outlook from the desk of the commish

5 weeks into fantasy football without having written a status update, wife gone for the night chasing ghosts, cold beer that was leftover from tailgating a month ago, and no video games owned that were made after 2001 (internet connectivity wasn’t invented yet for this game). This folks is a recipe for a late Saturday night “state of the union” in the 2A and Friends fantasy football league.

…And then the phone rings and the parents want to talk on Saturday night instead of the typical Sunday afternoon. That’s how you get waylaid into 2 more weeks of column-less busyness. It will be put off no longer. I apologize to my 9 readers[1] - this should have been greedily digested 2 weeks ago. The consolation is this: we have 2 more weeks of knowing what in the world is going on. Especially after the week 7 grenade fest that mutilated Fred-Ex Delivery’s starting lineup. More on that in a bit.

Before we get going, I wanted to share my pre-season rankings that were done immediately following the draft. Here’s how I initially handicapped the league (thoughts in parentheses):

1st) FostersForeignPolicy (If you don’t like your own team to win on draft night, you’re either lying or you just came for the punch and ice cream.)

2nd)Donkey Ndamukong (The risk mitigating QB tandem of Brady and Vick with two top-10 WRs and Ray Rice had me intrigued)

3rd) Trophy Wife (If you don’t like your wife’s team to [be in the top 3 or 4] on draft night, you may be telling the truth. But you are failing to consider her blessing on writing 2000 words on a game based on another game.)

4th) Johnny Drama (The Martin/Bush/Jackson RB platoon had me excited along with Brees. I initially thought that Manning was a top 10 guy last year, but turns out he was 14th and finished with 50 less points that Romo. Who went for the same price ($11). Maybe I rushed these picks a bit…)

5th) DeLuck Sjaunski (More depth than some other teams, and I was sure that Mike Williams would become reliable at some point. Also – how did Jordy Nelson go for $11???)

6th) FredEx Delivery(Didn’t trust Ridley, didn’t think Charles would score enough, and wasn’t sold on Wayne or Smith. And the Bradford/Cutler combo is high variance mania. I thought the team was actually worse than this rank, but a shrewd owner always finds ways to win.)

7th) The Butt Fumbles (This was a hoard of WRs on good teams with “too many mouths to feed”. Yeah, I’m starting to believe now)

8th) Swat Like Watt (The old guy special. Gord/McFadden/A. Johnson made me nervous and Schuab doesn’t get the blood pumping.[2] Kudos to staying true to your H-town roots though.

9th) The Michael Scarns (The pick that is sure to prove me wrong every year. I never like the Scarns on draft day and they always finish .500 or above. This rank was a favor for you Phil.)

10th) The Swave Stewards (One of these years, Larry Fitzgerald will show us his true colors. He’s one semi-competent QB away from fantasy stardom. On the other hand, I thought Phil Rivers would be swirled in QB controversy by week 5. We know how that turned out.)

While we’re on the draft – special mention to the owners who selected players for under $5 who are sitting in the top 10 overall at their position (top 5 at TE):

Trophy Wife – Fred Jackson, $5;

The Swave Stewards – Philip Rivers, $5

Donkey Ndamukong – Jordan Cameron, $3

FredEx Delivery – Sam Bradford, $3

The Michael Scarns, Antonio Gates, $3

FostersForeignPolicy, Zach Sudfeld, $1. Visions of this. Reality was significantly crueler.

These are arguably the most valuable players in the league each year. Drafting someone for these prices with top 10 return gives you control from day 1 without any hit to the Free Agent Budget. I’ll admit that its mostly good fortune in snagging these guys, but this confirms that there are treasures down there each and every year. Fantastic use of draft dollars guys.

As we gear up for the stretch run, I leave you with the playoff odds and a potential move that every team could do to increase their championship chances.

The Butt Fumbles:  Probably the most interesting RB combination I’ve ever seen. 2 part time guys who are overachieving and 2 supposed bell cows who haven’t produced. Good luck solving that riddle each week. Whatever foresight you had to dump James Jones and DeMarco Murray before injury, keep that up. This is a playoff team folks.

Playoff odds: 90%

  FredEx Delivery: From Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler to Chad Henne and Mike Glennon. Week 7 was brutal. The loss was somewhat mitigated by the awesome Jordan Reed snag – will be a killer choice if he can produce long term in place of Graham (plantar fascia is awful). I was going to suggest that someone take a chance on Vereen, but it seems that you’re already ahead of me. Good work. I have no idea how this team will finish. There are a lot of new faces in the starting lineup. This is normally a 50/50 situation, but I’m giving a slight bump to an owner who has been to the playoffs the past 3 years and already has a 5-2 record.

Playoff odds: 55%

  FostersForeignPolicy: Gave up on Matt Stafford for 2 WRs with exactly zero 10 point games since the trade. I want to say that I trust Terrelle Pryor (or even Kaepernick) but I can’t. I want to say that that trade was a sure way to improve my team, but I can’t. You just don’t know. I’ve made a conscious decision to play more with my gut this year (though not at the complete expense of rationality) and the jury is still out. But somehow, I’ve gone 2-0 while leading the league in scoring since making the trade. Even with Stafford looking great again on The Butt Fumbles. The advice: The gut check is working! Ride it!

Playoff odds: 60%

  DeLuck Sjaunski: I love the Trent Richardson dump. Can’t deny it. If DeMarco stays healthy, this team should make the playoffs. Three top 10 receivers, two top 10 QBs, a top 5 TE. This is how you draw it up. My best advice: stop playing teams on their peak week! 983 points-against leads the league by 85 points(!!). Hack an account, bribe someone to start a bye-week player, anything! Did you piss off the Luck guardians by naming your team after them and then picking their QB? Anything is in play right now.

Playoff odds: 50%, 70% if you make nice with the Luck guardians

  Trophy Wife: True story from draft night: Monica wanted Brady. Had set her intentions on grabbing Boston’s heartthrob. But a home internet issue that had us drafting at McDonalds followed us up the street and put those hopes to bed. McDonalds was rebooting their entire internet system (and only accepting cash at the register) when Brady was selected by Donkey Ndamukong for $27[3]. Well within the range of acceptable bidding. So instead she went with the noodle-armed Manning and hoped for the best. I think I can speak for her in this instance: Thank you internet gremlin. This team has the best QB on any known planet and the best RB combo in the league. If she would stop listening to her husband (“Dwayne Bowe has a real QB. He’s gonna be great!” “Knowshon for Boldin is a solid swap”, “Tom Brady really likes Amendola. He’s gonna get a ton of targets”), this team could have an even better outlook. As is, a healthy Gronk and rejuvenated Wilson could tip the scales in favor of a first-season playoff appearance.

Playoff odds: 50%

  The Michael Scarns: In case you didn’t know, this happened. As a bald(ing) guy, I love this. Buck the Stark-men trend Phil Stark! As for fantasy, here’s the situation. Two top 10 QBs, two top 10 RBs, and the #5 and #8 TEs. WRs who wouldn’t start on any other team (I do like Boykin short term) and the nearest solution is Michael Crabtree (possibly) coming back in week 12. No depth. Pierre Thomas and Tony G are the flex options. This is a top heavy lineup – when the studs produce you won’t beat this team. None of these studs have been consistent though. This is my first disclaimer today: MJD is a starting RB and is sitting on waivers! Do with that what you will. A trade for depth may pay dividends, but there is more than one way to fantasy success. Prove me wrong Phil Stark!!!

Playoff odds: 35%

  Johnny Drama: If this team is in contention in week 11 and Percy Harvin can produce for 3 weeks, I wouldn’t want to face it. We’ll know more when we see Steve Jackson play – and I really like Keenan Allen and Terrance Williams as flex type plays. I absolutely do not believe in Harry Douglas long term, but for a few weeks he is serviceable. TE is a trouble spot. Trading Allen or Williams for Tony G would solve issues on two teams. I’m always a fan of fringe-asset trading (i.e. small name guys) to fill holes, but I never see much of it in fantasy leagues. The little guys are worth something too!

Playoff odds: 30%

  Swat Like Watt: RGIII is back.  The old RB trio is holding up and churning out double digit games (only five weeks of sub 10 point games combined). This is a balanced team with few superstars – Marshall and Johnson have been consistent than dominant. Can we trust McCoy to shine when Vick sits? And Jared Cook is criminally underutilized as always. Dumping a defense to pick up another TE (Bennett/Olsen) could be a decent option. I’m not sold, but this team will be in every game because of the high floor of every starter. This has the look of a 7-7 team that misses the playoffs by a game.

Playoff odds: 15%

  Donkey Ndamukong: Alfred Morris doesn’t have a single 15 point performance. Roy Helu has two. Ouch. Something is up with Ray Rice as well, and Joique Bell has faded since week 3. And Roddy White, drafted for $30, hasn’t come close to overcoming an ankle issue[4]. Lamar Miller has been passed on the depth chart for a reason nobody can figure. Brady has no receivers and Vick is his normal half-injured self. Truth be told, this has been the least fortunate team this year. I liked the deal that shipped Cameron out to buy low on Morris (especially with RGIII healthy again) but a reliable 2nd receiver and overall better luck are must-haves for this team to reach the postseason.

Playoff odds: 10%

  The Swave Stewards: Graduate college and cast Senior Design into the pit of hell! It’s a life sucking leech and kills the potential for taking proper care of your team. That said, I can’t blame you Swave. “Academics Last”[5] will only take you so far. On the positive side, Wes Welker has been a phenomenal bargain at his $8 draft price (caught a TD in every game but one), and I didn’t hate the Jordan Cameron trade. Rivers has resurrected his career as well. But Palmer, Roethlisberger, Colston, Fitzgerald and CJ2K have generally disappointed. Not to mention Montee Ball who was cast aside in Denver.[6] The current record and Points Scored tiebreaker do not look favorable for a playoff run.

Playoff odds: 5%

  As always, this is all meant in good fun, and is but one man’s opinion. I hope you enjoy the read and for those of you reading who haven’t paid, I will break your legs  be in contact soon.

[1] My one key outside-the-league reader has now joined the league and decreased total readership by 10% in the process –  great marketing work!

[2] Only had 8.5 points less for the season than Eli last year. How did I overrate Eli so much??

[3] Jamaal Charles would have definitely been bid up if the internet had been working. There was no way any top 10 RB should have gone for under $40. That was a crime.

[4] Thanks for the heads up in the preseason Atlanta!

[5] 2AAAAAAAAAAAA!

[6] By the way, Maurice Jones Drew is a starting RB and available on waivers.

[daveandtrev]

Thank you

Hey guys,

My (semi) quick reliving of the season.

June 1st - Mandate in 7th. Crap.

Seriously though, I thought I was done. Big props to my MVPs for the 2nd straight year, Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Trout. Hey Bryce, remember when I tried to trade you Edwin for Justin Upton and you laughed at me last year? Thanks for saying no. Also, a big "no thanks" to the following duds: Jason Heyward, Chase Headley, Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar, Brett Lawrie and Josh Rutledge. You guys were good deals on draft day, but you sucked. If this wasn't a keeper, I would have dropped all of you out of spite. A big "I got it wrong" goes out to Eric Hosmer, JJ Hardy, Jason Werth, and Francisco Liriano. I had all of you at one point and either quit you too early (the first 2) or decided you couldnt keep up the pace (the last 2). Hey - can't win em all. Quick shoutout to the LA Dodgers for realizing that Kenley Jansen is really really good and using him as closer. Thanks guys.

Thank you to the MLB for cracking down on Steroids right when Steroids User was breathing down my neck. I must admit it would have been tougher to repeat with User at full strength. Ryan Braun was going to have an awesome 2nd half. I gotta give credit Travis - you had a great team and great chance before that announcement. Props. As for Byrce - I told Trevor a few months ago that you were the odds on favorite to win the league. I really believed it. Great trade to try and get pitching - wish it worked out better. In retrospect I think you keep Cabrera and try to stream. Also - compliments on trading for Goldschmidt and Chris Davis. Those were big  time pickups, and you had to give up some BoSox to get Davis as well. I know thats always hard.

Props to Trevor for being a man and taking a new team and turning it into a runner up. He was an integral part of Mandate last year and still the architect of this team. Those who think I'm good at fantasy - you're kidding yourself. Trevor is the genius. I barely touched the team this year it was built so well. And he was the brains. I'm just the math guy. :)

Thank you to Phil (yes, Evacuate the Dancefloor is my brother)for answering the call and joining up with us this year. Always a pleasure to be playing with blood. In fairness to Phil - he didn't know the keeper rules and only thought he could keep $100 worth of players when he took over - so he let allen craig go b/c he thought he had to. 7th isn't bad at all with someone else's team - and it could've been even better 

Thanks to Germany for trading me Nick Franklin and Iwakuma. I thought I had dumped a Jayson Werth and Francisco Liriano who were gonna roll over and die. Except they didn't. And Neither did Kyle Seager who I returned to you 3 days after you dropped him. Thought it was a good move at the time, but was real dumb in hindsight. You got me on that one. Also - congrats on winning the "most pickups" awards. I had no clue what you were doing but it was fun to guess each day. I appreciate the drops of De Aza and Morales - they both either produced for me or helped me get someone else in a trade. You da man. But good drop of Gallardo - that man blows.

Back to Bryce - I liked the effort to try to stream hitters - thats a high effort, small reward task that can pay off in close leagues. I knew you were playing matchups and salute you for putting in that work - that's a task too tall for me. 

Thanks to Carp - dude you are Mr. Prospect. The guys you got were young and talented. If we were playing in 2016, you would have won going away. Great pick up of Dominic Brown. Nobody saw that coming. Miller/Fernandez will be studs as well - good eye. Surprised you gave Segura away in that trade though. Think he's a good investment at $1. Also I loved the Chris Davis trade at the time. Thought he'd be a flash in the pan. Yeah, I was wrong.

Another thanks to Carp for producing the league's only music video. Way to be. Saw a cameo from Werty in one as well. Sounds like there's a solid bromance going on there, we like that. And again I will ask - how do we get The League in one of those videos. Im sure you can write a song about baseball. We could probably do a sick "Fantasy Year in Review" comedy medley that only us 10 guys would laugh at. But still, it would be totally worth it. Werty - solid clapping in the video.

Thanks to Werty - Remember that time you convinced Bryce that BJ Upton and RA Dickey were good trade chips? That was sweet. Although giving up Cabrera hurt. Still like that trade for you long term - Giancarlo/Beltre are nasty. And Adam Jones came over in that 3 team deal. Good work. Side note - that 3 team deal was extremely confusing. Kudos for getting that to work out.

Thank you to Churros - You came in and rescued a bad situation. Guy before you was killing league parity. I have to say though - you're claim on Pedro Alvarez was the same day I decided I wanted him. Except you know you came in and bid $6 and totally overbid me. And my 3rd base was a hole all year and Pedro killed it for you. Congrats my man. You are also enjoying Hosmer - and he's actually hitting. Enjoy. I waited a year and a half on that guy with no results. But for you - I hope the end of this season continues for him. Also, your OF was stellar. I put a ton of money into mine and yours still outperformed it. 4 top 20 guys - Pence, Beltran, Crisp and Nelson Cruz before Biogenesis. I would not have expected those dudes to do what they did.

And to Grande Dady - someone has to bring up the rear. Thanks man. Also, may I suggest a trade next year? Would have loved to work something out but I never got responses from you. Oh well.

As I said in the text earlier - Would love to try to get together for draft next year. Would be a great time. This may be the end of my dominance though - I know you guys are getting better/stronger. Also I'm married now and this stuff takes up a significant amount of time. This season was probably the peak of my "paying attention" skills. These 2 years have been transition for me (college graduation, new city/first job, marriage) and the one activity that has been there through it all was this one. No other single thing took up more of my time or interest. Thanks fantasy baseball for sticking with me. I'd like to play again - but if for some reason I don't next year, you'll know why.

As a parting note: God's got a lot for all of us in this world, so don't pass that up by "doing what you've always done". Take some chances and make mistakes. Seize the day and live from your heart. Love passionately. I say this for myself as much as for any of you.

I hardly know any of you well and yet I compete against you for 6 months out of the year. Somewhat strange, somewhat awesome. Cool.

Now that you all think I'm strange and off my rocker, I will wrap it up. Just one more thing.

Hey Bryce: How do you like those 10 to 1 odds now??? Boo-Yeah!!!

[daveandtrev]

Fantasy Power Rankings - Playoff Push

~An updated look at the playoff prospects of 10 teams on a mission.

Week 12 has wrapped up leaving two weeks before the playoffs, so it’s time to take stock of what has happened and where each team is headed. I promise to keep this edition much shorter. I’m ranking each team in the order that I believe they will finish the season.

This week: #10.

Week 6: #9

Team: Come at Me Bro

Analysis: Fantasy can be a cruel game. Come at Me Bro followed up our previous article with a 5 game losing streak, killing any playoff hopes for this season. It is tough to win when the average Points Against (PA) in those weeks was 135.4. Victor Cruz picked a bad period to slump with 3 games under 10 points,  Jordy Nelson didn’t play in a game where Come At Me Bro lost by only 6 (Phil Stark magic!), and every Detroit receiver gave 3 or less after games of 20 or more. You can’t blame the choices, but the results are unfortunate. On a positive note, here are the defensive scores for Mr. Soape over the last 6 weeks:  16, 10, 25, 24, 5, 25. And yes, the week of 5 he left a 27 on the bench (Trevor Allison late season magic!). If only the New England defense could finally get that WR eligibility…

Playoff Chances: Eliminated

How to go out with a bang: Beat Greg. Is there anything better than taking out the defending champion as he is fighting for the playoffs? I don’t care what your record is, this game means something. 

This week: #9

Week 6: #7

Team: The Wuder Boyz

Analysis: When 4 starters go down in any sport, the sledding gets rough. Virtual sports aren’t spared by this principle either, although it’s much less painful on this side. Injuries to starters when using a “Studs and Duds” draft strategy are often a death blow, as there is no depth to fill in potential holes. Same story here. So goes another wayward fantasy season. The Wuder Boyz caught the injury bug, and although the backups filled in admirably, there is only remote hope of a postseason berth. This is made worse by the fact that the monster mid-season trade between The Wuder Boyz and Mean Pepper Shaker has left the Shaker with a consistent 20 point threat in Calvin Johnson and a healthy Andrew Luck. McGahee and Roethlisberger cannot say the same. Gronk was coming on strong before the fluke forearm injury on a PAT put the Gronkness Monster back in hibernation. The bright spot has been Marcel Reece, who has put up over 10 points in 4 straight weeks including a 21 point showing in the Week 11 win over Because I’m Batman. Great snag off the waiver wire.

Playoff chances: 2%

How to get even: Beat the Stark Bros the last 2 weeks with a healthy Darren McFadden scoring 25 in each game. And smirk when his 6th place team puts up 160 each playoff week. So close.

This week: #8

Week 6: #2

Team: Nate Express

Analysis: Clearly, these rankings mean nothing. This midseason prediction was dead wrong. Losers of 5 of the past 6, this team has hit a huge funk. I’m not even completely sure what happened. Dwayne Bowe stopped trying (last 10 point game was week 4!), Rashad Jennings laid huge eggs in weeks 9-11 (9.5 total points) as did Ahmad Bradshaw in weeks 8-10 (never more than 6 points). Not to mention that Demarco Murray last played in week 6. Foot injuries linger, folks. If you’re already 3-3 and those things happen, you’re just screwed. Pack it up and try again next year. Never mind that he has more points than the 3rd place team. (As a side note, in weeks 9-12, the least amount of points scored against the Nate Express was 141.5. Yes, this included Call Me Aaron Burr’s record setting 201.5. Yikes.)

Playoff chances: Someone do the math. It doesn’t look good, but there’s always a chance. I’m going with 1%.

How to make a statement: Lose this week, then agree with Come at Me Bro to pull all players and tie the last week. I mean come on, if two teams finish with the worst record, there is no last place…right?

This week: #7

Week 6: #8

Team: The People’s Champ

Analysis: At this point, this thing is a crapshoot. Anyone from here on out has every chance to make the playoffs (except maybe the Shaker, but they sure can score points). This ranking is a gut call. The reason: no QBs. Yes, it’s possible to win a league with subpar QBs when stud running backs are in the same room (Hello, Arian Foster!), but there’s simply not enough. And yes, this is your fault, Ryan Mathews. For all your “talent”, you would think you could throw a couple of 10 point games in there right? Maybe a 15 and a 20 once in a while? On the season: One 10 pointer and one 20 pointer. Not getting it done. And don’t even get me started on Jermichael Finley. This team could be the most victimized by real life coaching (someone throw Kenny Britt the ball!), as Norv Turner, Mike Munchak, and whoever wants to take responsibility for the Jets mess, have all left money on the table. This team is by no means a pushover, but can they beat a hungry Gangham Style or Because I’m Batman? My heart says yes, but I’m not so sure.

Playoff chances: 35% Nobody has separated themselves.  This thing is WIDE open.

This week: #6

Week 6:  #6

Team: Mean Pepper Shaker

Analysis: Maybe these rankings mean something after all. I had a hard time putting a 5-7 team above a 6-6 team at this point in the season, but I think this team is hot at the right time. Despite last week’s loss, this team is in great form for the stretch run. The trade to give up Roethlisberger and McGahee to pick up Calvin and Luck was a season saver, turning a 2-6 start into a 5-7 record going into the final two weeks. For the record, this team has the 3rd most points in the league and has been a victim of schedule, similar to The Nate Express last season. When you lose games in which you score 129.5 and 131.5, while also not being able to pull out a victory when your opponent scores 106 and 115, fantasy gets tough. If Aaron Hernandez didn’t rush his comeback, things might be different. Also, Randall Cobb has been a phenomenal pickup.

Playoff chances: 20% because of record. If this was a 6-6 team, I would say 60%.

This week: #5

Week 6: #4-Tied

Team: Because I’m Batman

Analysis: There’s no tie this time, although it’s impossible to bury this team for good. Just check out my comment from last week. I’m eating those words. I know these players are completely independent from their owners, but the resiliency of their owner seems to be passed on to the team every year. Nevertheless, Bryce Brown took advantage of his opportunity and ran with it to the tune of 27 points last week to save Batman’s season. This came after a 3 game losing streak that had Batman teetering on the edge of elimination, including a season low 65 points that ended a 6 game winning streak over Laundromat Debitcard.  Batman needs top 5 QB numbers from Newton and Manning, and the matchups are ripe (KC, Wash this week; Atl, NO next week respectively).Even better would be a Big Ben return that makes Wallace and Heath Miller relevant again.

Playoff chances: 40%. The low points scored total could be the difference in a tiebreaker.

This week: #4

Week 6: #10

Team: Gangham Style

Analysis: I still stand by my week 6 prediction. I don’t feel it was a terrible call (maybe a bad call, but not terrible). The first two games after Week 6, Gangham came out with a 106.5 and an 81. Of course, the Shaker scored 87 that first week. But soon after, the team exploded to a 3-1 record and lowest weekly score of 119.0. How? More of the Chicago Defense (27 in week 9), some Flacco to Torrey Smith magic that lasted 1 week, a  40 point outburst from Andre Johnson that nobody has seen since 2010 all because of Blaine Gabbert getting hurt, and finally an all-around solid team victory. Look, I don’t want to sell them short. Gangham is right where you want to be, in a spot to control their destiny to get into the playoffs. All I want to point out is, the things that happened weren’t likely. My pick was decent, but Gangham and the mighty fantasy pendulum of fortune were better. When you’re on a hot streak, ride it out! At this point, I hope they make it. Blowing a 3rd place position at this point is painful. If they do get there, will the Bears D have enough juice to avoid the fate of 2010’s Win or Go Home (12-2 record, lost both playoff games)? That’s another issue entirely.

Playoff Chances: 45%. Has an extra win but probably has the toughest schedule of anyone (People’s Champ, Aaron Burr)

This week: #3

Week 6: #4-Tied

Team: Call Me Aaron Burr

Analysis: Remember when this team was initially named “One Dollar Stewart”? Yes, there was a reason he went for a dollar, and that reason is the same today as it was then. But that’s about the only thing I can say about this team that isn’t positive. Clearly, this team was built for the stretch run and it came up huge the past few weeks, overcoming a 2-5 start to win 4 in a row and have a fighting chance at 6-6. This team’s scoring is tops in the league, and they are hot at the right time. The season saving strategy? Grab a top RB and then let everything else marinate to perfection. Doug Martin suddenly became a top 5 running back and now BenJarvus is looking like a solid RB1. And that’s in support of Mr. Rice. Add to that the #1 WR in fantasy in AJ Green, a consistent 12-15 point threat in Welker, and the #3 TE in Graham. The weakness is of course at QB, but Romo and Palmer have been #12 and #13 at the position on the year including #5 and #6 over the past 4 weeks, respectively. Nobody is playing better (fantasy) football in the league right now.

Playoff Chances: 60%. He owns the tiebreaker with a ton of points scored, and gets a guaranteed game against Gangham that represents a 2 game swing.

This week: #1 – Tied

Week 6: #1, #3

Teams: The Michael Scarns, Laundromat Debitcard

Analysis: Since these two teams have clinched playoff spots, I won’t bother making a ranking that can only be settled 3 to 4 weeks down the road. The Scarns are more consistent (last 4 over 110, no game this year under 100), Debitcard is more explosive (a 177 and 147.5 over the last 4 weeks, 7 games over 125 on the year.) Neither has run away with the league this season, nor routinely destroyed their opponents in victories. They both have weaknesses. The Scarns receiving corps of Boldin/Crabtree/Maclin is scaring no one. Debitcard has rostered 7 running backs in an attempt to find someone who is healthy and can get consistent touches.  However, the consistency of their QBs, especially now that Kaepernick looks to be the guy in San Fran, are what will give both teams a great shot in every game they play. These last two games are really a race for the $25 prize of best record as well as the #1 seed. But as we’ve seen before, that may not necessarily be an advantage.

Playoff chances: Clinched

Side note: When Phil Stark drafts new Cardinals starter Geno Smith next year, grab him in every other league you have. Big things are coming.

Thanks for reading, be on the lookout for a playoff breakdown following Week 14!

[daveandtrev]

2A & Friends Fantasy Football Power Rankings

~An in depth look at the pecking order of Letourneau’s finest after Week 6.

Six weeks have passed since we saw ten men trade blows in a fake football draft where they submitted both their bids and the emphasis of their free time for over 16 weeks. The format was new but the competition was as fiery as ever, as bidding wars ensued for Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, and RG3. (RG3 went for more that Gronk, McFadden, and Marshall in every league, right?). In the end, each one of these men had every right to think, believe, and convince a total stranger that their team would lead them to statistical football glory. In these six weeks, the claims set forth at the draft have been tested and altered, and although some enjoy an easier path than others, the fantasy crown has been captured by no one. The right combination of injuries, tipped balls, and vultured goal line touchdowns can lead any man to the top of the hill to become the subject of envy amongst his peers. Who has the inside track? Well look no further than the midseason ranks and consider your strategy accordingly.

[#1 is the highest, #10 is the lowest, and all this is in good fun. For those who don’t know how Power Rankings work, this exercise is essentially ranking the teams based on the strength of their roster (as perceived by me), with league record given consideration but not being the final say. I’ve included references to league history, so if you want to check out how we’ve developed, click on the button for past years on the home page of our league and enjoy.]

#10: This being a league of my friends, I hate to say someone is last, but I have to start somewhere. And this is in no way a situation like the Football Farries in 2010 (A record of 1-13, setting the league mark for losses in a season. Scott barely tried at all that year). However, If I could pick a team I had to face, it would be Gangham Style (and no, I have no idea if his symbols really say that or something degrading about the rest of us). The main problem is depth at the running back position, which right now is being manned by the main instrument of discipline for Stevan Ridley’s fumbilitis (Bolden)  and Cristian Driver’s good friend from high school (Jackie Battle, who also married his best friends sister.). I really like the depth at receiver, but there simply aren’t enough spots to play all of them. And Andre is giving the consistency and upside of a WR2 right now. On the positive side, Colston has been solid, Gore has yet to fall off the proverbial cliff, and Vernon Davis has been more consistent than in years past. Gangham has one of the best backup QB situations in the league, but again, none of them is performing consistently at a high level. A deal for a running back or a waiver wire acquisition could help this team’s long term outlook.

Best move: Drafting the Chicago defense. Although defenses and kickers are usually poor indicators of long term success, Gangham has the closest thing to consistently dominant this year. 5 TDs over 5 weeks is phenomenal, and a big reason why Gangham is 3-3.

It really sucks that: Cedric Benson got injured the same week that Gangham dropped Jason Witten, as Witten scored 23.5 points. Witten could have returned good value for TE-starved teams, but he was simply underperforming until that point, and nobody can predict when a guy like Benson will go down. 

At best: Andre Johnson plays like a true #1 receiver again, Gangham picks up a usable RB2, and the Chicago defense wins 2 more games by themselves. Record: 8-6.

At worst: Nobody is willing to part with a RB2, Vernon Davis and the QBs only put up big points when the other doesn’t, and the Bears defense only scores 1 TD for the rest of the year. Gore injures a pinky finger and The Nate Express grabs Kendall Hunter. Record: 5-9.

#9:  Initially ranked at #10, I changed my mind when Antonio Gates and Dez Bryant provided returns to match their potential this week. The nine-spot belongs to Come at Me Bro. I’ll be honest and say they’ve been better than expected, given the computer drafting for him. This team will win games, and if Dalton and Bradford continue to perform and put up 20 point games (my mark for a solid quarterbacking effort), they will win more than expected. They already surprised Because I’m Batman in week 6 behind Jordy Nelson deciding to come into the stadium instead of just riding his bike looking for his jersey. Turner has been surprisingly decent, and the depth at WR on this team is league-best. But with WR being the most volatile, I would say this team is most capable of laying an egg in any given week. Antonio Gates is doing him no favors, including a game where he sat out with almost no prior notice (Week 2). A trade of that depth for a plus running back or proven QB could help things.

Best Move: Drafting Andy Dalton. Computer draft or not, Dalton went for $3 and has returned top 7 fantasy numbers at QB.

Most surprising move: Letting Greg Jennings hit waivers, thought a trade could have been worked out for him.

At best: The receivers dominate, the RBs hold, and Gates hits 10+ in 5 more games. Dalton is a top 10 QB. He ends The Scarns winning streak in week 9. Record: 8-6.

At worst: Turner hits the cliff, Dalton is a farce, Nicks returns to the injury list. Record: 4-10.

#8: Not being able to attend the draft kills, and it thrills like the horns on my Silverado grill (You know the song, don’t deny it, and you’ve even enjoyed it once.)  #8 on the list goes to The People’s Champ, but this could be a short stay. If Russell Wilson has more afternoons beating Brady at his own game, The Champ will be headed up the ranks. This time has plenty of upside, but too many question marks lead to inconsistency. A team that will seldom be blown out (except possibly on Arian Foster’s bye week), but will find it hard to win unless the entire team can come together with a complete performance. Ponder is all over the spectrum with a 4, 8, 21, and 22 point game. Brandon Marshall is a solid WR1, but Britt has just now shown signs of life. Finley has been a disaster, considering talent level and offensive scheme, but Daniels has been revelatory. Mathews was a great bargain in my opinion, but Johnson was a bargain-turned-disappointment. The ultimate Jekyll-Hyde team whose potential is scary, but its floor is going down, basement (yes, a real rap line).

Best move: Taking a chance on Ryan Mathews (Computer auto-bids!). He has loads of opportunity to go along with his talent, and if he can be top 5 on the home stretch, this team may turn heads late.

The Jury is Still Out On: The Titans offense. If a turnaround is to be had, with Thursday night being a start with a big win against the Steelers, then The Champ will be the one to benefit in a big way.

Best case: Britt becomes elite again, CJ2K is serviceable, and Arian Foster finishes top overall. Record: 8-6.

Worst case: Johnson is unstartable and untradeable, Ponder struggles and Finley finishes outside of the top 20 tight ends. Record: 5-9.

As we continue to move up the list, I can’t help but to add a side note. With 8 out of the 10 teams at .500 or under, and all teams having 2 wins, this is the most even playing field I’ve ever seen in a fantasy league. Half of the season is almost complete, and yet I feel that number 10 on this list is truly not that far off from number 6. 1 or 2 fringe players could be the difference at the end of the season. That one matchup where one team wins while only scoring 105 points could mean a playoff berth this year. Very exciting time to be in the league, which I credit to everyone being a returning player.

[Speaking of fortunate matchup-driven wins, let me give you a theory. For our league, it is my estimation that a team scoring 120 points in a week should win, and a team scoring less than 120 points should lose. It’s eerie how well this works out. 10 teams have played 6 games each, putting up 60 individual scores. Out of the 60, 49 times have fit the theory (81%). 24 times a team has scored over 120 and won, and 25 times a team has scored under 120 and lost. 11 times, a “fortunate” victory or “unfortunate” loss has occurred. 5 times a team scored over 120 and lost, and 6 times a team has scored under 120 and won. The percentage combined with the fact that those numbers are nearly identical in both cases (showing equal variance) shows that 120 is a good benchmark for wins. When you think about it, the number breaks down nicely into individual player performances as well. If both QBs score 20, and each of your other 8 players score 10 points, your team hits 120. This is a great barometer for performance, and helps keep expectations in line (Jack, your team will not score 140+ points every week, especially by the third quarter of the 1:00 games. But we like your enthusiasm.)  Decide however you please, this is simply a trend that I have spotted during our years of playing in this particular format.]

[As a side note to the side note, I have also defined an “incredibly fortunate” victory and an “incredibly unfortunate” defeat. This occurs when a team scores under 100 points and still wins, or scores over 140 points and still loses. Last year this happened a total of 5 times, 2 wins and 3 losses, including a 78-point victory by The People’s Champ, possibly the most fortunate win of all time (Cue to Pennywang Hero with his head down, who finished out of the playoffs and 1 game behind last year’s Champ with more points scored). This year, only Because I’m Batman has fallen victim to the incredibly unfortunate defeat (Week 3 against Mean Pepper Shaker).]

#7: Back to the ranks. When you draft with the “studs and scrubs” approach, you better pick the right studs or hope that your scrubs turn up a star or three. The Wuder Boyz took the boldest approach in his draft tactics, putting 165 his 200 dollars into 4 players. The results have been mixed.  Rodgers struggled initially, but has the potential for spurts of dominance. McFadden has three games over 14 points, and two under 4. Gronk and Calvin have been nothing special, but still rank in the top 10 per game. The Boyz have been fortunate to have picked up Andrew Luck and Vincent Jackson, who are clearly not just scrubs, as their support has helped The Boyz navigate the ups and downs of the stars. As his consistently high projections indicate, this team could set the league on fire with a 160 point outing, but is more often stuck with 110 and a pile of excuses. Part of the problem is the lack of production from the RB2 and Flex spots, which must be addressed in some capacity to combat this team’s high variance. Andre Brown and Danny Amendola, we hardly knew ya.

Best move: The week 3 pick-up of Andre Brown was a godsend. With Bradshaw out, the move paid immediate returns but the success was short lived, as an injury and healthy return by Bradshaw has Brown looking like waiver wire fodder.

At best: Rodgers, Gronk, and Jason’s man-crush Calvin Sjaunski turn it on, while DMC stays healthy and the supporting cast does just enough as The Wuder Boyz only lose one more game this season. Record: 9-5.

At worst: Hernandez steals Gronk’s targets in New England, McFadden goes down in Week 8, and Calvin finishes as the #5 overall receiver. Trades for a RB2 and Flex are like trying to find souvenirs in Jerusalem. The only affordable ones are in the Arab market, and you still know you’re paying 5 times face value.  Like so. Whoops, wrong link, here it is. Just kidding everyone, this is the real market .  Record: 4-10.

#6: Coming into the #6 slot, after a very controversial trade, is the small but fiery Mean Pepper Shaker. Unsatisfied with a 2-4 record and deficiencies in the RB2 and Flex spots, The Shaker decided to trade his horse for a couple of well-trained ponies. The thought here is that a complete fantasy team gives the best odds of winning games. Still, the jury is out on this trade. What I do like about this team is Manning and Wayne. Both have emerged from fantasy limbo to have solid campaigns so far, and with Rice gone, they will become the all-important wellspring of fantasy points for the Shaker. Can they shoulder the load and bring the Shaker out of the cellar? Will Hernandez come out of injury and into fantasy relevance sooner or later? This team will find out a lot about itself over the next 2-3 weeks, as they have reinvented themselves with an even skill/potential approach across the board. A proven formula for success in the past has been a 3 headed running back attack. Spiller, Sproles, and McGahee have the talent and opportunity to spearhead that. To be honest, this team looks like the Cedric Benson of the league, perfectly capable of 83 yards on 26 carries. The question is: can he score the elusive touchdown to put them over the top and into the playoffs?

Best move: Reggie Wayne is done, and Spiller could never repeat the end of 2011 even if he was the lone back again. That was some of the banter from the fantasy pundits, but those assessments have come up unfounded. Wayne is re-energized by a future stud QB and Spiller can do massive damage when given the right workload(even occasionally with only half the carries!) These combined with the choice to go high-upside with Manning have this team in contention.

The unsuspecting-boomerang-to-the-face drop: Dropping the 49ers in week 4 was not only a questionable choice at the time ($7 bid in the draft, underperforming but still stout), but the immediate consequence was a week 4 win for The Scarns over Aaron Burr with a 29 point effort from San Fran (5 point margin of victory). Patience is needed, but sitting on a bad asset doesn’t work either. Unfortunately, this gamble paid off huge for someone else.

Best case scneario: Wayne and Manning continue to play like 2008, role players Lloyd and McGahee see increased workloads and C.J. Spiller gets sole possession of the backfield after a Fred Jackson trade to the Cardinals. Sproles catches 7 or 8 balls in every game. Record: 8-6.

Worst case scenario: Everyone performs, but not to the level of a playoff contender. Hernandez gets injured again and Roethlisberger can’t put up 20 point games behind his backup offensive line (so many injuries right now). Without serious holes though, the Shaker finishes no worse than the middle of the pack. Record: 6-8.

#4A, #4B: If they decide to read this, this rank will surely make both of these team’s owners upset. Truth is, I can’t decide between them. Both teams are owned by historically sharp players with championship pedigree, but neither is over .500. Yes, I’m referring to Call Me Aaron Burr and Because I’m Batman. Given that these two are the only ones to bring home the elusive title, I prefer to watch them decide supremacy in the box scores in 2012. The breakdown of both teams:

No doubt about it, Call Me Aaron Burr was in a little bit of desperation mode this past week or two. Sitting at 1-4 just a week ago, Burr needed outside help, and looked no further than the depth on the bench to move up and obtain high pedigree players. It is my observation that having a deep bench is just as essential as drafting quality starters. Unless you are fortunate to be starting guys who are top 5 in their positions at the majority of your spots (think Swavely’s Win or Go Home in regular season action in 2010), you will face injuries, bye weeks, and flat out bad matchup plays. The deep bench can bring new faces, better matchups, and is a hedge against injury to a stud. McGahee and Hernandez, bought for 4 dollars on draft day and picked up off of waivers respectfully, were spare parts for Burr and allowed him to bring in a guy like Ray Rice. Of course, if Rice goes down, this plan backfires but in theory this could tremendously boost the team’s bottom line. Pay attention to this kind of strategy folks, it doesn’t happen on accident. Green and Welker make for the most consistent group of WR tandems in the league (barely edging out Percy Harvin/Roddy White on Laundromat Debitcard), which as most owners know is the position of volatility. The question as always is quarterback play, as well as the RB2 and flex. (Anyone else notice a trend?) I love the sheer quantity of RBs to plug in, as well as speculative pickups like Jennings. This team could do damage in the playoffs. But can it get there?

Best move: Drafting McGahee, picking up Jennings/Hernandez off waivers after injuries, being willing to trade at the right time to the right people. If this team is managed by somebody else from the start of the season, they may be sitting at #8 or #9 on this list.

In hindsight: I hate second guessing, but if Burr misses the playoffs by a game or so, his week 4 game against the Scarns is the place to look. McGahee was benched in favor of The Law Firm, and Freeman took a seat to Palmer. Tough calls at the time, but in a different mood, either of those actions put Burr at 3-3 right now.

At best: Graham gets healthy and productive, the matchup plays in the flex spot work out, and AJ, Welker, and Rice stay healthy. They win a bunch including a couple that they maybe shouldn’t have. Record: 9-5.

At worst: Graham can’t return to form, teams start triple teaming A.J. Green, and Ray Rice is merely ordinary (by his standards), delivering no stat line higher than 21 points. Even so, this team won’t go sub .500 with the new lineup. Record: 6-8.

Let’s call this one what he is. Two time champion, current holder of the title belt, “the New York Yankees of the fantasy league”, the Mouth of the South, the Malaysian Persuasion, the Man with a Plan. With this kind of pedigree, two thoughts pop up for perspective: don’t ever count him out, and more importantly, don’t crown him until he’s won. The owner of Because I’m Batman certainly knows his way around the affluent area of this block, being the only owner to make the playoffs every year. The beauty for the rest of the league is this: this year isn’t last year. The bad news for the rest of the league: fantasy football is an art form, crafted by cold numbers and precise bursts of intuition. And this guy knows how to shape a winning team. This year is no different, with the potential for the best team in the league. This is a team you don’t want to catch on a good week, and will even challenge you in a bad one. Manning and Newton are a great 1-2 punch, but the real strength is McCoy/Charles/Bush/Morris. Add in the consistent play of Wallace and Decker, with a surprising 8 point average for Heath Miller, and you have the balance and makeup of a team that will stick around in the playoffs. The problem is, talent and ability don’t get wins. Every situation, save for maybe Manning’s and Eric Decker’s, is flawed. Mike Williams disappears for a game or three every year. Heath Miller, although consistent, won’t deliver game-winning stat lines. Charles gets shut down by his own coaches, and McCoy has a quarterback who is giving the ball back to the other team at an alarming rate. Bush is fighting injury, and Morris is still unproven in the long run. Yes, I may be a little nitpicky, but can you trust this team the way you could the Brady/Welker/Stafford team last year? I say no. The tools are there, but this team is far from juggernaut status.

Best move: Sneaking to pick up Morris 10 minutes before the first game of the year. With all of the experts yelling to stay away from Shanahan running backs, most of the league was scared to jump for him. And really, who trusts a guy named Alfred to do anything other than answer the phone and dust off the family bust? Great foresight.

At best: The running backs become interchangeably elite, taking advantage of every excellent matchup. Cam gets his swagger back and averages 25 points the rest of the year. Miller is a top 10 TE for the year. Record: 10-4.

At worst: Wallace has 4 games scoring under 5 points, Bush’s workload is restricted due to injury fears, and Cam can’t duplicate last year’s magic. Because I’m Batman can’t push his playoff streak to 4. Record: 6-8.

#3: The third spot goes to the 2nd best record in the league right now. Yes, a 5-1 record and two game cushion are a pleasant surprise, but championships aren’t earned in October. Nonetheless, you have to like the start of the Laundromat Debitcard. The only team to go with the two stud QB approach in the draft, Brady and Stafford have yet to reach their potential, but the lack of dud games (under 10 points for a QB) is one of the perks of this strategy. The WR spot has been consistent if not league leading on some weeks. I also like 4 starting running backs on the roster, although nobody other than Forte is really top-tiered.  The depth to this team is clearly lacking, and could end up being its demise. Stevan Ridley has been a tremendous $1 draft choice, putting up 19+ in 3 games so far. Unfortunately, he fumbles from time to time and plays for Belichick, meaning his long term viability and opportunity changes almost weekly. Brown has been decent but not great, and Forte has really been a disappointment so far. Regardless, collecting wins when guys like Forte and Stafford haven’t played near their potential bodes well for the future. Will they eventually get on track this season?

Best move: Snagging Jason Witten off of waivers. This one hasn’t paid big dividends yet, but I have a feeling this move could be a push over the top. Witten is a huge upgrade over Jared Cook, and he gets as much opportunity to catch passes as any TE in the league.

It’s surprising that: Despite a shortage of running backs, and having 4 RBs that are seemingly affordable, there have been no trade offers for a RB to Debitcard. At the same time, the low-upside bench prevents Debitcard from trading “up” for higher tiered players. For now, this team will roll with what they have.

Best case scenario: Mendenhall or Leshoure puts up consistent top-15 numbers, and Ridley stays the main man in New England. Stafford hooks up with Megatron for 8 TDs (Zero TDs between them so far!) Record: 11-3.

Worst case scenario: Ridley fumbles his way into a timeshare with Danny Woodhead, and Mendenhall take 4 more weeks to recover from multiple injuries. Stafford’s season last year proves to be a fluke and Harvin breaks a forearm off of an inside handoff. Record: 8-6.

#2: As everyone finds out eventually in fantasy football, games are won and lost not only by how well you do, but by how well your opponent does, the maddening part over which you have no control (although having control over your own team is a semi-myth in itself). So how does a 3-3 team come in the power rankings ahead of a 5-1 team? Simply score more points than everyone else in the league. The Nate Express has done just that, setting the pace in scoring and putting up two of the top 3 single game scores on the year, 176 in week 5 and 156.5 in week 1. (The other one, for those who are curious: Mean Pepper Shaker with 168.5 in week 3.) And how is that done? Grabbing a top QB in the draft and making sure the 2nd one is in an offense powered by the best dressed heads in the league. Brees and Ryan are 3rd and 4th overall for QBs, making for the most consistent QB this side of Fear of Commitment’s 2011 run with Brady and Stafford, who finished last season 4th and 5th among QBs. In support is Ahmad Bradshaw, an elite option when not hurt (17.5 points on San Fran’s defense!), and Trent Richardson, also solid when healthy. Julio and Demaryius Thomas are high upside plays for two of the NFL’s best offenses, and Kyle Rudolph has to be the steal of the year at the TE position. With that talent level, and a weekly option of Dwayne Bowe and DeMarco Murray at the flex, this team may have the most upside and the deepest bench (Pettigrew and Schaub aren’t slouches either). The points are there, but will the matchups continue to be unfriendly to the Express?

Best move: Grabbing Ryan at a bargain in the draft, and scoring Kyle Rudolph. When you draft this well, you don’t need waiver-wire acquisitions to propel your team to greatness.

The funny thing is: Didn’t this situation look the same last year? 2011’s version of the Nate Express (and later Seriously…) scored the 4th highest points in the league, only to be saddled with a 7-7 record and a 6th place regular season finish (no the consolation ladder for non-playoff teams doesn’t count). With some situations you just know that a guy is due for greener pastures.

Best case: With the exception of the Week 7 mega-bye, this team not only could, but probably should win the rest of their games. I see them dropping this week and then winning out. Record: 10-4.

Worst case: Simply put, injuries or opponents having career days against the Express will be the only way to stop this train. Even at his current record, this team goes no worse than .500 from here on out. Record: 7-7.

#1: Here is where the antithesis to my prior argument about points scored being the truest measure of a good team. It’s also the antithesis to my prior statement that record has only a small impact on these rankings. But sometimes, you have to throw logic out the window and honor the accomplishments of what has actually taken place instead of mere speculation. The #1 team is first because when you continue to win games, despite long odds, one has to make a choice. Do you believe or don’t you? For me, the top spot goes to the undefeated The Michael Scarns for the simple reason that I believe. For three years, The Scarns have made bold draft day decisions year in and year out, cashing in on a comeback year from Michael Vick in 2010, jumping on the Cam Newton bandwagon in the 12th round in 2011 before it was cool, and he’ done it again this year with bold bidding for Bob Griffin. The difference this year, is that instead of having a single elite and missing out on the playoffs (5-9 last year, 8-6 and robbed by Andre Johnson on “the most dramatic/season altering drive in our fantasy league’s history” in 2010) this team is proving to be worth its weight in gold. Tony Gonzalez, fantasy’s #1 TE this year, has been exactly what Graham and Gronk owners wanted from their TEs. With injury concerns at draft time, Peterson and Jones-Drew became the backbone of The Scarns at what is still the most premium position in fantasy (and this year, quality is scarce). Throw in the consistency of Miles Austin and the better-than-advertised Anquan Boldin (remember, had a broken face at one point), and this team has found a way to win every single matchup. Oh yeah, and Mike Vick hasn’t missed a single game yet. I can’t say much for the Randy Moss pick (biggest lock of the draft), but you have to admire The Scarns loyalty. And oh by the way, facing a season high 131.5 points against in week 6, The Scarns get 35 points from a left-for-dead RG3 and an absolutely incredible34 points for the alien who invaded Shonn Greene’s body. When you’re rolling, the breaks just keep coming. And there is no reason to believe they will stop any time soon. (If he coaxes a 35 point game out of Crabtree, it’s time to start talking ‘team of destiny’)

Best move: The draft day strategy (if there was one) surely made Phil a front-runner in the league. But his timely pickup of Shonn Greene ranks among the greatest 1 week pickups I’ve ever witnessed. You’re at least thinking of having him pick your next 6 numbers inside your gas station, are you not?

If only: Michael Crabtree didn’t cost so much money at the draft! If that $29 is used to make that receiving corps more top-heavy, this team may run away with the league. Nevertheless, 6-0 says The Scarns have had the perfect roster for each of its matchups.

At best: You know where this is headed. However unlikely this outcome is, the 4 year old inside me that still believes in sporting miracles is alive and well. The dream season happens, with The Scarns posting a never-to-done-again 16-0 regular season record… And promptly gets blown out by 50 points in the first round of the playoffs by Because I’m Batman (the postseason ‘team of destiny’). It’s at least conceivable. Record: 16-0.

At worst:The opponents get tougher, RG3 cannot stay healthy, and the trio of Crabtree/Maclin/Boldin cannot produce in the WR2 and Flex spots. Mike Vick is benched, and this team’s starting QBs at the end of the year are Alex Smith and John Skelton. But the first half start is almost impossible to blow in the end. Record: 9-5.

If you’ve made it through this whole article (skimming counts too), I want to thank you for reading it. It’s my first foray into non-school-related writing for the public, and hopefully not the last. Feedback is great, discussion is encouraged, and disagreement is expected. Peace.