Swing Trader. Technical Analysis and Market Commentary on the Stock Market. My website can be found at Dereck's Trades and my Discord server here.
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Danger Lurks
The last article we wrote was a few weeks ago here where we raised the obscene specter of a market topping process. Since then, we have stayed inside a trading range, and we have experienced some strong volatility while in that range. We will update our findings, the bearish odds of which, since the last article, have improved in our view. Continue reading Danger Lurks
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A Brief Window of Great Risk
The market has been consolidating for weeks now. We became suspicious at the all-time highs, and sought a move lower, which we got when the FOMC produced a strong selloff. We adopted a head & shoulders pattern as something to try to play (here), and we began to doubt it once it produced a “double hump” and became asymmetrical (here). Let’s take a look at it now. Continue reading A Brief Window…
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Is Our Change In Tone Changing Tone?
In last weekend’s article, we celebrated a “change in tone” that the bears brought into being by making the first “lower low” in some months. Let’s see where those ideas stand this weekend. Continue reading Is Our Change In Tone Changing Tone?
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Finally, A Change in Tone
For the last couple of months, we’ve been forced to point to the continuous unfolding of bullish patterns on the S&P 500 (here, here and here) and we’ve steadily been on the march higher throughout this period. Continue reading Finally, A Change in Tone
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Still No Change
In last weekend’s article (here), we discussed how we can only see bullish price at this time. And there has been no change to that view as we enter a new weekend. Continue reading Still No Change
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Still Climbing Higher
It’s been several weeks since we have written an article on our website, as there’s been very little to add in the broader sense sort of ways, and the more granular discussions we’ve been able to have have unfolded in the Discord server (which you should join if you haven’t because we’ve created a marvelous place that soon won’t be rivaled by many other finance servers—we have something very…
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Little Changed
In last weekend’s article, we discussed how the markets had signs of froth in areas such as the put hatred, but we also discussed how there were no signs of that being punished as the market was technically undamaged. Continue reading Little Changed
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Structurally Undamaged, But Frothy
In last weekend’s article, we discussed how persisting above the “cup & handle” formation after breaking out of it was a strong sign for the bulls, as the longer we spend up here, the more evidence we have that these prices are being accepted. The bears’ best option was a bull trap that we were open to, but which has not materialized, and so we’ve simply played along with the rising market…
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The Bulls Remain in Control
It’s been a couple of weeks since we last wrote an article, as not a whole lot has happened in that time. And certainly nothing unexpected. In the last article, we discussed how the break above the “Cup & Handle” formation was a good sign for the bulls, and we left the door open for a bull trap to emerge, though we cast doubt on that scenario suggesting it was possible, but probably not too…
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The Bulls Are In Complete Control
I don’t have a lot I can add for now, as things are playing out within the expectations of the midweek update. But we’ll summarize some things for the weekend. Here, we discussed the cup & handle formation that had developed as a result of the bears’ inability to send the market lower while we were still near the 100-day SMA. We also discussed how it was at least still possible for a bull trap…
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The Bulls May Take Us On A Ride
In this weekend’s article, we discussed how the failure of bears to take us lower when we were close to the 100-day SMA has caused a large cup & handle formation to develop. Also in that article, we remained open to the possibility that we were setting up a bull trap in this area, partly because of how many times this level has been sold already. Continue reading The Bulls May Take Us On A Ride
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Have Stocks Let Go?
Well I don’t have a lot I can add this weekend. But, in last weekend’s article, we were troubled—despite all of the apparent strength—by a growing one-sidedness in sentiment, at least from how it appeared. We were worried that there were simply too many people lined up—both bulls and bears—for a new ATH. And that can make the boat flip, and the boat did flip. Continue reading Have Stocks Let Go?
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Still Smashed in a Range
In last weekend’s article, we discussed how despite having everything it needed—froth from the bulls, capitulation of the bears, and the clearest announcement yet of a Fed pivot—the market has hovered just under the July high, impotent in its effort to just stand up and reach it. And in that article we suggested that this was probably being caused by a very happy—and large—seller sitting up…
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Is the Market About to Reflate?
In July, we had mounting evidence for a coming VIX spike, including the structural evidence of a bullish wedge that had formed, and then broken out, just as folks got about as frothy as they can get. And we closely tracked the VIX structural developments in the Discord server. From that, we soon began our equity decline, and I got a lot more than I was expecting. With the triple whammy of fears…
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