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Hiatus

Life is hectic. Got a newborn to look after. So these days do not have time to create a write-up for each pick. I will continue to post picks on twitter. More pizza when the baby allows!

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06/07/22: St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Pick Threshold: 

The Take: Model is 0-7 picking dogs of this ilk. Past losses include White Sox, Angels, Rays, D-backs, and Royals. Cardinals better than these teams mostly, but 0-7 is convincing.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Rays

Gut Odds: -110

Vegas Odds: -155

Fair Odds: -124

Past Profit with Rays: -1.06

Past Record with Rays: 5-5

Past Profit against Cardinals: +0.14

Past Record against Cardinals: 7-5

Result: Win

Summing Up: Model goes to 0-8, going to re-up tomorrow.

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06/07/22: Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Chicago Cubs

Pick Threshold: -115

The Take: Past record of 6-2 with prior wins with D-backs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mets. Little bit of a stretch here to include the Cubs. I could see this game losing.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Cubs

Gut Odds: -115

Vegas Odds: -115

Fair Odds: +133

Past Profit with Cubs: -1.92

Past Record with Cubs: 1-3

Past Profit against O’s: -0.79

Past Record against O’s: 7-5

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Unfortunately, this loss was predictable, Cubs didn’t fit in with the quality of previous teams.

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06/06/22: New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

Pick: New York Mets

Pick Threshold: -105

The Take: Model is 5-1 picking dogs fitting this criteria for +5.65 units. Mets are similar to the Giants and Cardinals who are responsible for 2-1 out of the 5-1. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Mets

Gut Odds: -115

Vegas Odds: +100

Fair Odds: +150

Past Profit with Astros: +2.60

Past Record with Astros: 7-3

Past Profit against Mariners: +1.19

Past Record against Mariners: 7-5

Result: Win

Summing Up: The run on dogs continue. Going to re-up tomorrow depending on the matchup.

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06/06/22: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Pick: Houston Astros

Pick Threshold: -180

The Take: Model has a 8-2 record with games with this criteria. Recent wins include Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays, and Mets. Astros fit right in.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Astros

Gut Odds: -180

Vegas Odds: -180

Fair Odds: -273

Past Profit with Astros: +2.13

Past Record with Astros: 10-5

Past Profit against Mariners: -1.31

Past Record against Mariners: 4-4

Result: Loss

Summing Up: This was a bad luck loss as the Astros hit 3 solo HRs and fell victim to a 3-run shot. This category moves to 8-3 and looks less attractive.

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06/06/22: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick Threshold: -120

The Take: Model has a 17-2 record in games with this criteria. Going to ride this wave. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Diamondbacks

Gut Odds: -130

Vegas Odds: -105

Fair Odds: +100

Past Profit with Diamondbacks: +0.43

Past Record with Diamondbacks: 3-3

Past Profit against Reds: +1.68

Past Record against Reds: 7-4

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Looking back on it, the D-backs did not fit with the other teams that combined to go 17-2. Bad underwriting.

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01/01/22: Carolina Hurricanes @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: Carolina Hurricanes

Pick Threshold: -190

The Take: Jackets just beat the Predators in OT. Can they really beat the Hurricanes and Predators in back to back games?

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Hurricanes

Gut Odds: -200

Vegas Odds: -176

Fair Odds: -143

Past Profit with Hurricanes: +0.10

Past Record with Hurricanes: 1-1

Past Profit against Jackets: -1.55

Past Record against Jackets: 1-2

Result: Win

Summing Up: Hurricanes walk away with a wins despite a 0-4 deficit.

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01/01/22: Philadelphia Flyers @ Los Angeles Kings

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers

Pick Threshold: +135

The Take: Kings scraped by with an OT win in their last game. Flyers are coming off an OT loss as a dog. Even Steven says Flyers should win this. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Flyers

Gut Odds: +110

Vegas Odds: +138

Fair Odds: +140

Past Profit with Flyers: +0.75

Past Record with Flyers: 2-2 

Past Profit against Kings: +1.74

Past Record against Kings: 3-1

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Flyers get off more shots but lose, 3-6.

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01/01/22: Vancouver Canucks @ Seattle Kraken

Pick: Seattle Kraken

Pick Threshold: -115

The Take: Kraken are making up for 2 losses in a row.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Kraken

Gut Odds: -140

Vegas Odds: -106 

Fair Odds: -133

Past Profit with Kraken: -2.90

Past Record with Kraken: 1-4

Past Profit against Canucks: +1.25

Past Record against Canucks: 2-1

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Canucks remain red hot. What they are doing is incredible.

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01/01/22: Edmonton Oilers @ New York Islanders

Pick: Edmonton Oilers

Pick Threshold: -115

The Take: Oilers are going to make up for their loss to the Devils in this game. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Oilers

Gut Odds: -140

Vegas Odds: -108

Fair Odds: NA

Past Profit with Oilers: -0.80

Past Record with Oilers: 1-2

Past Profit against Islanders: -0.17

Past Record against Islanders: 1-1

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Oilers drop another won. They are playing so bad right now.

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01/01/22: Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators

Pick: Nashville Predators

Pick Threshold: -190

The Take: Predators should make up for their last 2 losses in this game by blowing out the Blackhawks.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Predators

Gut Odds: -220

Vegas Odds: -184

Fair Odds: -217

Past Profit with Predators: +1.87

Past Record with Predators: 5-4

Past Profit against Blackhawks: +1.06

Past Record against Blackhawks: 3-1

Result: Win

Summing Up: Predators stormed the Blackhawks who didn’t have a chance in this game. 

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01/01/22: San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Pick: San Antonio Spurs

Pick Threshold: -200

The Take: Spurs are so due for a win and the Pistons are the perfect candidate.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Spurs

Gut Odds: -250

Vegas Odds: -198

Fair Odds: -136

Past Profit with Spurs: -3.35

Past Record with Spurs: 2-6

Past Profit against Pistons: +0.48

Past Record against Pistons: 1-0

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Tough OT loss for the Spurs. Should have laid off of them coming off short rest. 

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01/01/22: Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards

Pick: Washington Wizards

Pick Threshold: +110

The Take: Bulls have got to be tired heading into this game. This has every sign of a trap game for them. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Wizards

Gut Odds: -110

Vegas Odds: +114

Fair Odds: +200

Past Profit with Wizards: -3.00

Past Record with Wizards: 0-3

Past Profit against Bulls: -3.33

Past Record against Bulls: 1-4

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Another buzzer beater for the Bulls and another loss for us. 

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12/31/21: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: San Antonio Spurs

Pick Threshold: +220

The Take: Grizzlies got the win against the Lakers, but the Lakers are bad and it wasn’t comfortable. Spurs should push the Grizzlies and have an opportunity to win late. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Grizzlies

Gut Odds: +190

Vegas Odds: +235

Fair Odds: -117

Past Profit with Spurs: -2.35

Past Record with Spurs: 2-5

Past Profit against Grizzlies: +1.65

Past Record against Grizzlies: 1-0

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Grizzlies are good but pick against them next game. Spurs should be a take.

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12/31/21: New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick Threshold: +160

The Take: Knicks as heavy road favorites will always get a pick from us. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Thunder

Gut Odds: +160

Vegas Odds: +220

Fair Odds: NA

Past Profit with Thunder: +0.65

Past Record with Thunder: 1-1

Past Profit against Knicks: -2.00

Past Record against Knicks: 0-2

Result: Win

Summing Up: Pick against Thunder especially if they are a favorite. Pick with Knicks if we can get them as a dog or small favorite. 

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12/31/21: Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

Pick Threshold: -120

The Take: Cavs are short handed, but are so good at home. They should rebound after a loss today.

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Cavs

Gut Odds: -150

Vegas Odds: -116

Fair Odds: -550

Past Profit with Cavs: +2.57

Past Record with Cavs: 4-2

Past Profit against Hawks: +1.44

Past Record against Hawks: 3-2

Result: Loss

Summing Up: Pick with Cavs and against Hawks in their next games. 

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12/31/21: Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors

Pick: Toronto Raptors

Pick Threshold: -250

The Take: These odds tell me Vegas thinks the Raptors will win comfortably because they do not make sense. 

For the Numbers People:

Point of View: Raptors

Gut Odds: -300

Vegas Odds: -225

Fair Odds: +110

Past Profit with Raptors: -1.25

Past Record with Raptors: 2-4

Past Profit against Clippers: +0.77

Past Record against Clippers: 3-2

Result: Win

Summing Up: Clippers are a take next game and Raptors should be faded.