fakinbaconpancakes

[fakinbaconpancakes]

Forex Musings

It's been a little bit but I'm going to talk about my trading and the things I've had to learn.

I guess I'd start by saying that it isn't gambling. When you gamble, the house is against you, or another player. No one is against you when trading. The market does what the market does and absolutely does not care one bit about whether it's a buy or sell or if you're winning or losing. The market just...IS.

Unlike gambling, it's not over until you say it's over. You can get in and out within a minute or for hours. You can win and win and win and it's not over until you say it's over. Same with losing positions. You CAN lose extensively, until you run out of money, in one go.

Then there's the different types of analysis, and the ways one thinks to get an edge. I have mostly been doing fundamental analysis, learning about trade balance, unemployment, GDP, interest rates, inflation, etc. There's scheduled news about all of these things, and I've been doing my homework, waiting for the news, and making bank off of it.

After a few weeks of watching and testing, I've found something that works. There are hints of what could happen, I set up a trade to trigger if things go the way I think they will. I'm ready to snap trade the other way if not. There's a jump in value and that's where the money is made.

For example, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. I set up a trade for the US dollar to gain in value, even though interest rate cuts should drop the US dollar value. Doesn't matter. I made $1000 in about 40 seconds.

There's also a second chance to make money. The initial reaction is always over the top. That means it goes the opposite direction, and a chance to make money. Today there was unemployment news and I made on the initial and the pullback, although I definitely didn't do it well. I jumped the gun and committed the other way too early. I had to wait around for about 40 minutes and watch my potential loss rise to $600 before it finally came around and I made $350.

Then there's the actual fundamentals, where the price balance comes back to where it should be after the news ripples fade away. Those are long-term trades and that's way too much stress to watch happen.

I visit the Forex subreddit regularly and I can't make heads or tails of the technical analysis that all these people are trying to do. I don't understand why they are doing this. Most of them are stuck, tired, stressed, and broke. I see why 90% of people fail. Trying to predict the future based on the past is not how any of this works. There may be some patterns that repeat, but every moment in the market is unique, and it can go any way at any time.

For this week, I'm up $4000 that includes $1900 in losses. So that could have been $6000 in my pocket, but I did have some bad spells where I got caught in a bad pattern until I stepped away.

But that's a 3:1 profit to loss ratio with a win percent of ~60%. If I can keep to my strategy and stop making dumb trades, things are going to work out with this as an income stream.

More on this as October starts.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

7th Post of the Day

I did have some words to get out. I hope to be able to continue to write and express, especially as things start to happen.

Despite what I feel, I am not destitute. I am not going to be homeless in 10 weeks. I'm just entering a new chapter of my life, and I'm worried.

Yup, I'm scared, even as an adult. But it's time to stop being a child about it and start making things happen.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

The Forex Plan

I'm not going to explain FOREX any further than it's trading derivatives of currency pairs. I can buy a contract for an amount of a currency at one price and sell that contract at a different price. I get or owe the difference in price. The price fluctuates by thousands of a cent, so you need large volume. That volume can be had with leverage, so you can have access to $100,000 with $1,000 for example.

To keep my current standard of living, I need to make $500 a day, pre-tax. That's $2,500 a week, $10,000 a month, $120,000 a year. Capital gains taxes will take a bunch. Private health insurance. Car insurance. Food costs. Gas.

No rent. No utilities. If I can make $500 a day, I can make this work.

Grad school is up to $60,000 a year for 3-4 years. Plus housing and food. We all know college loans are awful. It'd be great to be able to avoid them altogether.

I have money. $140,000 in a high yield savings account. I have an IRA and 401k that can't be touched. I have $25,000 in my emergency fund. I have a severance of somewhere around $27,000 after taxes coming in. Based on all of this, I feel comfortable fronting $50,000 into a FOREX trading account.

That $50,000 allows for a few things to happen. #1, being self-funded means that it's 100%. There are prop firms that let you put up a small amount and they take a sizeable commission. Self-funded means I pay all the losses and get all the profits. #2, Risk management is the name of the game in this type of trading. I want to make $500 a day. I am going to have to risk $500 a day to get there. $500 is 1% of $50,000. From those who know, 1% is the most successful traders risk. #3, Accounts like these that trade on leverage need a down payment. For what I want to do, that down payment is around $22,000 per trade. Yes I could lose all $22,000 if the contract goes to zero, but no currency I'll be working with will go to zero, ever.

I am going to trade 5 lots at a time. That's a contract for $500,000. I did say you need a lot of volume. Each thousandths of a penny move is $50. If it moves 10, that's $500 and that's enough.

I did an analysis of daily movement to see if 10 is reasonable. In 70% of days, the movement was 45 for open to close, with a high and low range almost double that. The answer is that it's very reasonable to find that 10 movement.

This past week was the first time I took things seriously. I played like I was using real money, and it was a short week with Labor Day. I made a $200 in the evening, after 7pm. One morning I made $500 in 10 minutes. The next morning I made $1,800 in 20.

I was +$2,449. I made some good decisions. I made some good educated guesses. What happened this week isn't typical, and I'll try again next week. And the week after.

And then we'll try with real money.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

The Current Plan (subject to change)

Apply to jobs as they arise. 1% chance for something magical to happen.

Continue to apply to graduate school. I need one more recommendation to come through and my college transcript to get officially ported, then it's a waiting game. I'm not really sure if I can count on this.

I have until the end of November in my apartment. This gives me 10 weeks to get everything packed up and moved. I need to buy boxes. I have a Peloton, TV, $7k couch, gear, clothes, so much to move. I think renting a U-Haul may be the easiest part.

I have 6 weeks to clear out my parents' house enough to make space for my stuff. I have to get my father out of the house long enough to get the 1-800-GOT-JUNK guys in. They need to clear out one side of a basement - wood, scraps, carpet, and 40 year old deteriorating things. A 30 year old desk. A 15 year old broken TV that's been sitting in a room because my father equates stuff as success. do I dare getting rid of a SoloFlex and NordicTrack from 30 years ago? Basement gets cleared. Things from the back porch go to the basement. My stuff goes on the back porch.

I have 2 trips to Florida that I committed to, both in November. House cleared by end of October. Apartment packing in October. Florida first week of November. Pack up and move 2nd and 3rd week. Florida again 3rd weekend.

Last things out Thanksgiving week. Leave forever by that Wednesday. Thanksgiving with family. December and onwards back with the folks. No rent, but no honor.

Continue to practice FOREX trading on a demo account. I've learned a lot in the last 4 weeks, making lots of mistakes that haven't cost me anything. Came up with a strategy that can work for me. I need cashflow and I believe I can do it.

It's a lot to do. And it's all on me. I may have a little help, but it's on me.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

Thoughts on Unemployment (Part 2)

7. Applying for jobs is absolutely terrible. Let's say you are qualified to do a job. You first need to navigate the application, sometimes through LinkedIn, Workday, or a company's own homebrew. Filling out the same information each time - name, education, work experience, titles, job highlights - every single time. And you're uploading your resume, which may or may not have some AI to get it into the right fields. Once you click submit, the bots take over, looking for keywords but only if your resume is in a compatible format with the bot. If not, your score suffers. I've seen some of these matching algorithms. Something I am a 100% match for, or even overqualified, will get me a garbage bot evaluation score. One that I did got a 43/100. Then you may get to talk to a recruiter. My furthest application got this far. She was late, very enthusiastic, and went on and on about a different job description. But once she figured that out, we had a good talk. I was 100% exactly what this company needed. The recruiter said she'd pass me on to the hiring manager and I should hear back immediately. A week later, still nothing, so I pinged the recruiter. My rejection email come swiftly after. Two weeks later the job was reposted. I applied again and got another, more immediate rejection email. It feels really shitty, 6 weeks later, to see the position still up. I'd figure that I'd at least get to have a discussion.

8. The grind of applying is so hopeless. I just can't find a place in the place I made a career. Maybe I'm too niche. Things pop up on searches and they all look wrong. I feel wrong, apart from where I've done great things. I even applied for a job where I first got my start, under someone I worked under for 11 years., I expect that rejection soon.

9. I think I'm over it. Depending on others so that I can live just isn't appealing anymore. Working my ass off, giving more of myself than I should, caring too much, striving to make positive impactful change - and then getting shafted by the smallest of people. I'm not sure I want to subject myself to that again.

10. I'll detail it later, but this is why I'm looking at an income stream through day trading. It's not easy money. It takes work and smarts and good decision making and excellent risk management. But it can be done with a computer and internet connection. You don't even need starting funds, but I have those. Day trading puts my fate in my own hands.

11. I think it's that feeling in control of my own destiny is what's pushing me this way. My cardepeer has been 95% altruistic to date, and I've been mostly well compensated along the way. But they messed with that last part, so it's time to prioritize #1

[fakinbaconpancakes]

Thoughts on Unemployment (Part 1)

This may be a long one because I have a lot of thoughts. Some of this may not be completely coherent.

I am annoyed that I was laid off. I was managing a group of 5, supporting a number of research groups, and getting the job done.

It was a decision because my boss thinks she could do it, I had 2 counterparts that did the same thing as I, and my boss' boss is a shitty manager.

My former manager was a piece of work. With a workaholic pathology, they had no personal boundaries. Working on holiday was the norm, and set a terrible standard in the group. If they weren't doing the job of 6 people, they weren't working hard enough. They resented the 20 people on the team who ultimately reported to her. How do you lead people you hate? I stopped providing information about my peers when I realized that they made it a point to weaponize it and attack others. Early on, and I'm only realizing it now, they were threatened by me and made it a point to threaten me. They said, when you do X, I can't protect you. I didn't work at a place where people were vindictive. They came from a place where backstabbing was the norm. And they brought that shit with them. The feeling of being threatened only increased when I learned how to make strong arguments, backed up by facts, and advocate for myself. I always made it a point to be convinced of better ideas, but I see now that my creativity and the slightest bit of willpower soured me on her. And now they think they can handle what I used to do. The team isn't stupid, and I see confidence in their abilities falling. I have more, but the one thing that always got me: "They (meaning the team members) aren't allowed to talk about their salaries with each other." I can't describe the number of times I had to step in to say "Yes they can," "Yes it's legal," "It's the National Labor Relations Act," "It's illegal for you tell them to not talk about their salaries," "Ask HR." And this was all before the pay transparency laws started popping up. By the time I got booted, pay transparency was part of the company culture, at lease seeing your own pay bands.

My boss' boss. What a piece of work. My first month, I went to say hello and got zero emotive reaction. My second month, they had a department meeting where they spent an hour yelling at the group. They made a statement saying they were there to help people in the department with their problems. I know our relationship went off the rails when I didn't come crying for help. I can handle my shit. And in the following 3 years, there was 1 instance where I needed assistance and they were completely ineffectual. Sometimes leaders are in leadership positions because they are great leaders. Other times it's because there was no one else in the start-up phase of the company.

Back to being unemployed. It feels terrible. I was sans work once before for about 8 months after returning from a job overseas. At least back then I had some hope and naiveite, but no plan other than just applying for jobs. That got tough, especially as time went on. I felt like such an awful person and it showed. At least this time I have some plans, which should lead to better patience.

My first month after the notice was terrible. Deep depression. All the cliches. Woke up late. Barely ate. Morning depression nap. Afternoon depression nap. No motivation to do anything. Went from 5 days a week workouts to zero. I went to a week-long hobby event, drove halfway across the country for it, and barely engaged. Spent some time with like 3 people instead of 100. Mostly sat and lost myself in some fiction. I left early to be miserable by myself at home.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

Lay of the land

Here are the current state of affairs as I best see them. This may be a list of grievances or turn into a to-do list.

I live daily with a mild physical disability. It's annoying an painful and I won't further expand on it this time. I'm tired of telling the story.

In two days, my employment at the place that pays me is terminated. These were company-wide layoffs, about 30-40%, in a field where industry-wide layoffs have been going for over a year. I got notice at the beginning of July, so my summer has been essentially ruined.

Also at the start of July, one of my parents had a partial stroke. As part of that fun disability of mine, I've spent enough time with stoke victims to have nothing but sympathy. And for my parent, I'm watching age and that mental hit put them on the road to the grave. I'll have more on this at another time.

As soon to be unemployed, I feel like I'm in starvation mode. I'm not spending any money for things excessive. Two vacations canceled. No going out. Bare bones home cooking. Every purchase scrutinized.

I am job searching but have definitely lost the passion. I spent 20 years being hands on and the past 3 years managing. Finding a new job potentially means going back to hands-on. But I think my hands-on days are behind me. That makes 20 years of experience basically useless. Sobering thought.

I am looking at alternatives to being part of the workforce again. Particularly going back to school for a doctorate. I've done the research, filled out the applications, got the transcripts, wrote the essays, and now I wait. With my recent termination, I am only expecting more rejection.

With now being September and school just starting, I would not start a program for another 11 months. I need to find an income stream. With jobs in my chosen field elusive, maybe part time. But more focused on day trading.

With no steady income stream, I have to move out of my apartment. I have an open invitation to move back in with my parents. So now I plan for packing and moving the excessive objects in my life to another state and figuring out where to put them all. The logistics are something else.

I'm really at a crossroads on how I want to live the rest of my life. I guess this would be a mid-life crisis for my 45 year-old self, single, unemployed, no direction or motivation, going back to live with my parents. Pretty pathetic, right? Definitely not to plan.

But what if getting laid off was the catalyst I needed to make a radical change that could support me for the foreseeable future? I have the smallest of hopes that I could pull it off.

[fakinbaconpancakes]

It starts...

Here is what we are in for. At times in my life I've had massive urges towards expression and (optimistic) creativity. I had the urge to write, so I contributed to a magazine for a time writing articles. I had melodies in my head, so I bought a keyboard and got them out. And now I'm having a new urge.

I'm not sure which of these this undertaking is. Words in my head? Emotions I need to express? Mid-life crisis? Desire to leave something lasting? Figuring out a plan for the rest of my life? Who knows? Probably a little bit of each.

So stay tuned and let me know when you see creativity or when you see pathology.

Or maybe no one will ever read this. And that would be a-okay, but really what I want in this moment is a place to get all my thoughts out there. I find it much easier to keep things in context when ideas aren't actively competing for my attention.