guidefinances

[guidefinances]

AI and overvaluation risk (Q1 2025)

The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by significant geopolitical events and the extraordinary rise of Chinese AI, particularly with the emergence of DeepSeek. This update explores the implications of AI developments on personal asset allocation. DeepSeek Assessment The rapid advancement of AI has led to an increase in speculation and misinformation in the media. According to Bridgewater…

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Vanguard Model Portfolio and 2025 Asset Allocation

For Swiss investors, considering the Vanguard model portfolio may be a good starting point to build a solid portfolio. Vanguard Approch on Asset Allocation Given today’s uncertain environment, it is crucial for investors to remain disciplined and avoid panic-driven decisions. Vanguard’s Model Portfolio provides a framework for long-term investment allocation, offering different risk profiles…

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Sources for investors entering 2025 (4th quarter 2024)

For our last yearly review, we look at insightful perspectives from three reference investors: a provocative contrarian, a global macro and a value investor: Searching for Value Amidst High Asset Prices The provocative contrarian Marc Faber, in his Gloom Boom Doom report, raises critical questions about the sustainability of current asset valuations. He highlights a growing dichotomy between…

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Sources pour les investisseurs à l'horizon 2025 (4ème trimestre 2024)

Pour notre dernière revue annuelle, nous examinons les points de vue éclairés de trois investisseurs de référence : un contrarian provocateur, un global macro et un investisseur « value » : À la recherche de valeur dans un contexte de prix élevés des actifs Dans son rapport « Gloom Boom Doom », l’anticonformiste provocateur Marc Faber soulève des questions cruciales sur la durabilité des…

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Eisman, Damodoran, BlackRock and DBS (3rd quarter 2024)

3rd quarter 2024 Overview The global financial landscape experienced notable turbulence at the beginning of August, marked by a downturn and a sharp increase in market volatility. According to BlackRock, we are navigating an unprecedented post-pandemic economic environment characterized by persistent inflation, higher interest rates, lower trend growth, and high government debt. This…

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Eisman, Damodoran, BlackRock and DBS (3ème trimestre 2024)

Troisième trimestre 2024 Aperçu général Le paysage financier mondial a connu des turbulences notables au début du mois d’août, marqué par un repli et une forte hausse de la volatilité des marchés. Selon BlackRock, nous naviguons dans un contexte économique post-pandémique sans précédent caractérisé par une inflation persistante, des taux d’intérêt plus élevés, une croissance tendancielle plus…

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Reference investors, the Chinese question and vehicles (2nd quarter 2024)

Market sentiment Looking ahead , the global economic outlook points to slower growth. While consumer spending is expected to remain positive, albeit at a slower pace than last year, some benchmark investors are showing signs of caution. For example, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position will probably reach $200 billion by the end of the current quarter, said Warren Buffett. This indicates that…

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Investisseurs de référence, question chinoise et véhicules (2ème trimestre 2024)

Sentiments des marchés À l’horizon 2024, les perspectives économiques mondiales laissent entrevoir un ralentissement de la croissance, tandis que la Réserve fédérale a maintenu les taux d’intérêt à 5,25 %-5,5 %, avec des réductions potentielles attendues d’ici la mi-2024 si les tendances inflationnistes continuent de se modérer. Alors que les dépenses de consommation devraient rester positives,…

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Principes, bulle, Etats-Unis et Chine (1er trimestre 2024)

Pour ce début d’année, nous passons en revues la dernière lettre de W. Buffett à ces actionnaires, la situation des marchés aux Etats-Unis, en Chine et dans d’autres géographies, et terminons par quelques considérations pratiques. Principes de W. Buffett Dans sa lettre aux investisseurs de Berkshire sur l’exercice 2023, W. Buffett suite rappelle ses grands principes d’investissements suite à la…

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Principles, bubble, US and China (1st quarter 2024)

At the start of this year, we review W. Buffett’s latest letter to his shareholders, the market situation in the USA, China and other geographies, and conclude with a few practical considerations. W. Buffett’s principles In his letter to Berkshire investors for the 2023 financial year, W. Buffett recalls his main investment principles following the death of his partner C. Munger: Seek out…

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An Asian investment year 2024 (4th quarter 2023)

For this final update of the year, we take a look at the risks from a global macro perspective, a more detailed evaluation at the currency and equity situation in Asia, and finish with some thoughts on possible entry points for self-made and serious equity investors. Risks and caution in 2024 Will 2024 offer a favorable environment for risky assets? For Oaktree, the environment  may continue…

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Une année 2024 asiatique (4ème trimestre 2023)

Pour ce dernier update de l’année, nous allons faire une courte revue de certains risques d’un point global macro en 2024, une appréciation plus détaillée de la situation des monnaie et des actions en Asie, et terminer avec quelques réflexions sur de possible points d’entrées pour les investisseurs self-made en actions. Risques et prudence en 2024 2024 offrira-t’il un environnement favorable…

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Bonds, value investing and contrarianism (3rd quarter 2023)

The best investment results come from exploiting the differences between the way things are supposed to work and the way they currently do.

Bonds regain their appeal We’ve been through several exceptionally easy years on the equity markets, but those days are over. Many are now turning their attention more to bonds: US and European high-yield bonds currently offer average yields close to 9%, around double the level available at the end of 2021. With bonds, investors will get their contractual yield unless there is a default. In the…

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Obligations, valeurs et contrarianisme (3ème trimestre 2023)

Les meilleurs résultats d'investissement proviennent de l'exploitation des différences entre la façon dont les choses sont censées fonctionner et la réalité présente.

Regain d’attractivité des obligations Nous avons traversé plusieurs années exceptionnellement faciles sur les marchés des actions, mais cette époque est révolue. Beaucoup tournent alors aujourd’hui davantage leur regard vers l’obligataire: Les obligations à haut rendement américaines et européennes offrent actuellement des rendements moyens proches de 9 %, soit environ le double du niveau…

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Banking, bonds and Asia (2nd quarter 2023)

For investors in global macro equities, the reopening of China calls for an overweighting of Asian equities despite expected volatilities.

Here are the key events of the last quarter that have and will continue to influence global equity investments. They mainly concern the attractiveness of the banking sector and developments in Asia (China, Japan and India): Declining attractiveness of banks Banks are built on asymmetries between their liabilities and assets. They pay depositors or the central bank a low interest rate to borrow…

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Bank turmoil (1st Quarter 2023)

As stated by Steve Eisman, who is buying bonds for the first time in 15 years : In such an environment: "Don't be a hero".

This quarter was again full of significant events in the financial markets: Beyond the banking stress episodes in the US and Switzerland, long-term retail investors should keep an eye on valuation and interest rates to strive for balance in their portfolios. This review curates around 100 memos and articles (see the main in the source) from our preferred references for diversified global macro…

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The end of free money (4th quarter 2022)

Although equity markets have had worse episodes, rarely have things been so catastrophic in so many asset classes than 2022.

For the last update of the year, we look back at the end of free money and its impact on the markets in 2022 (according to The Economist magazine) and a possible positioning approach (see DBS in the source). End of free money and impact on markets in 2022 Although equity markets have had worse episodes than 2022, rarely have things been so catastrophic in so many asset markets at once following…