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[ANALYSIS] How Democrats Can Win Texas in 2024

To clarify, this does not necessarily mean on the presidential level; this means any statewide office. The last time a Democrat won any statewide election in Texas was in 1990 when Democrats won the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner races that year. The last of these Democrats left statewide office by 1999. (Source for all of that)

While history may not necessarily be in their favor, as they have not won a statewide race in the 21st century, Democrats have a real shot here. For the last several years, Texas has been shifting to the left, so much so that the question of Texas flipping is no longer "if," but "when." And regardless of who the Republican nominee for president is, it is seemingly likely, as of now, that Texas will remain red on the presidential level, however, there will be a Senate election held concurrently with the presidential election. This election features incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, who is relatively unpopular for a Texan Republican's standards, running for reelection against a to-be-determined challenger.

Many Democrats are being talked about to be this challenger, but as the Republicans were reminded in 2022, candidates that primary voters like are not necessarily liked by general election voters. Since Texas is still a red-leaning state (with a Cook PVI of R+5) and Ted Cruz is the incumbent, Democrats are inherently fighting an uphill battle, yet it seems to be a battle that can still be won, assuming the Democrats nominate the right candidate and said candidate plays their cards just right.

So far, the frontrunner for the nomination seems to be U.S. Representative Colin Allred, who likely would not do too greatly in the general since Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily all have Texas classified as "Likely R" right now, meaning that Cruz has a very significant chance of winning, though not insurmountable. These classifications were made after Allred's candidacy was announced, meaning that he, if he gets the nomination, would probably lose to Cruz. This is also likely true for other Representatives seeking to unseat Cruz, including Representatives Greg Casar, Jasmine Crockett, and Veronica Escobar. There is a Representative who may have a better shot at the seat, though: Joaquin Castro, who has been in the House of Representatives since 2013 and is the brother of Julián Castro, a former cabinet secretary and 2020 presidential candidate (Julián has already ruled out running, while Joaquin has not done the same). While Joaquin also would likely lose to Cruz given his electoral mediocrity, he may be able to make more of a dent in Cruz' margin of victory than most Representatives.

Beto O'Rourke, a former Representative and the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2018 and for the governorship in 2022, notably got the race very close in 2018; Cruz only won by a margin of 2.6%. However, given his governor campaign wherein he expressed his support for gun control, it is hard to see O'Rourke defeating Cruz in 2024.

Most notable Democrats outside of the House of Representatives are either statewide elected Democrats that are too old to win the race or members of the state legislature that do not have the name recognition requisite to unseat an incumbent senator. This is why Democrats are in such a tricky position- they do not have relevant candidates with enough name recognition to win. Republicans have faced this problem several times before, and they have come up with a solution that sees success enough of the time to keep trying it, and it may be time for the Democratic Party, at least in Texas, to try this strategy out for itself: run a celebrity.

There is a historical precedent for celebrities winning (see 2008 MNSEN; 2003 CAGOV; 2016 presidential) and losing (see 2022 PASEN; 2022 GASEN; 2022 AZGOV) electoral races, and a few Democrats or independents that may be able to have a shot at taking down Cruz.

The first candidate that has potential to run is Shark Tank cohost Mark Cuban, who is an independent, but might run as a Democrat. Cuban, by virtue of being on Shark Tank, is incredibly wealthy, with a net worth of nearly $5 billion and would therefore be able to fund a large portion of his campaign himself. Cuban's political views, though not explicitly stated very often, he seems to lean towards libertarianism, which may very well help him in the largely conservative state of Texas. He commissioned a 2020 presidential poll with himself as an independent candidate and pulled large numbers of voters from both Trump and Biden. Further, Cuban does not even need to run as a Democrat- if he were to run as an independent (or other classification, for that matter), his candidacy may be endorsed by the Texas Democratic Party, a la Evan McMullin's 2022 Senate candidacy. This would help to lessen alienation of Republican voters and make himself more appealing to conservatives while not severely worsening his appeal to liberal voters. Cuban could make a good shot for Cruz' seat, but he would have to play his cards just right to fend off a challenge from the left.

Another maybe-independent-maybe-Democratic candidate is legendary actor and potential 2022 gubernatorial candidate Matthew McConaughey. McConaughey has not publicly stated which party he affiliates with, but he heavily considered a bid (though we do not know with which, if any, party) against incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott in 2022. Though he did not end up running, the speculation of a bid was so great that polls were conducted with him as a candidate. In a three-way race, there were a few polls that had McConaughey coming in second, defeating a Democrat. There were several one-on-one polls done between McConaughey and Abbott that had McConaughey winning, and Abbott is not nearly as disliked as Cruz. The key difference here, though, is that this is a governor race and not a senate race. Since senate elections are federal and governor elections are local, senate races are much more likely to be partisan, which would hamper any Democrat's/Democratic aligned candidate's ability to win this race, which is only further amplified by the increased turnout of partisans in 2024 on account of the year's status as a presidential election year. McConaughey, who has little to no political experience right now, would also likely be best suited for a gubernatorial seat as opposed to a senatorial seat, as most celebrities successfully seeking political office start off by running for an executive position (see Ronald Reagan; Donald Trump; Clint Eastwood). Should he run, though, McConaughey seems to be pretty popular in Texas, which is more than what Cruz can say, so he may be able to pull off a victory, especially if he does a McMullinesque strategy and is a Democratic Party-endorsed independent.

The last notable celebrity that may run is Gregg Popovich, commonly regarded as one of the best coaches the NBA has ever seen. Though relatively advanced in age (74 as of 5/14/2023), even by senatorial standards (the oldest freshman senator was 75 on election day), Popovich has been politically active recently, typically in favor of the Democratic Party. Though his age might be a turn-off for some voters, his legendary status in the sports world would help him win over independent, and even some Republican, voters, which can be seen in 2020, when longtime football coach Tommy Tuberville defeated incumbent Senator Doug Jones by a margin of over 20%.

Even with any of these three celebrity candidates, unseating Cruz is a tall task for anyone, regardless of his approval ratings, though these three candidates may be more capable of defeating him than most politicians. They have the ability to shape their platform from scratch and do not have a history of making statements while still having a high name recognition that may win them a seat in the federal senate.

Regardless, Colin Allred seems to be the frontrunner for the nomination until or unless someone else more prominent enters the race. And no matter who the Democratic nominee/endorsee is, chances are Cruz still wins more often than not.