#txsen

[jecoleje]

[ANALYSIS] How Democrats Can Win Texas in 2024

To clarify, this does not necessarily mean on the presidential level; this means any statewide office. The last time a Democrat won any statewide election in Texas was in 1990 when Democrats won the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, and Land Commissioner races that year. The last of these Democrats left statewide office by 1999. (Source for all of that)

While history may not necessarily be in their favor, as they have not won a statewide race in the 21st century, Democrats have a real shot here. For the last several years, Texas has been shifting to the left, so much so that the question of Texas flipping is no longer "if," but "when." And regardless of who the Republican nominee for president is, it is seemingly likely, as of now, that Texas will remain red on the presidential level, however, there will be a Senate election held concurrently with the presidential election. This election features incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, who is relatively unpopular for a Texan Republican's standards, running for reelection against a to-be-determined challenger.

Many Democrats are being talked about to be this challenger, but as the Republicans were reminded in 2022, candidates that primary voters like are not necessarily liked by general election voters. Since Texas is still a red-leaning state (with a Cook PVI of R+5) and Ted Cruz is the incumbent, Democrats are inherently fighting an uphill battle, yet it seems to be a battle that can still be won, assuming the Democrats nominate the right candidate and said candidate plays their cards just right.

So far, the frontrunner for the nomination seems to be U.S. Representative Colin Allred, who likely would not do too greatly in the general since Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Elections Daily all have Texas classified as "Likely R" right now, meaning that Cruz has a very significant chance of winning, though not insurmountable. These classifications were made after Allred's candidacy was announced, meaning that he, if he gets the nomination, would probably lose to Cruz. This is also likely true for other Representatives seeking to unseat Cruz, including Representatives Greg Casar, Jasmine Crockett, and Veronica Escobar. There is a Representative who may have a better shot at the seat, though: Joaquin Castro, who has been in the House of Representatives since 2013 and is the brother of Julián Castro, a former cabinet secretary and 2020 presidential candidate (Julián has already ruled out running, while Joaquin has not done the same). While Joaquin also would likely lose to Cruz given his electoral mediocrity, he may be able to make more of a dent in Cruz' margin of victory than most Representatives.

Beto O'Rourke, a former Representative and the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2018 and for the governorship in 2022, notably got the race very close in 2018; Cruz only won by a margin of 2.6%. However, given his governor campaign wherein he expressed his support for gun control, it is hard to see O'Rourke defeating Cruz in 2024.

Most notable Democrats outside of the House of Representatives are either statewide elected Democrats that are too old to win the race or members of the state legislature that do not have the name recognition requisite to unseat an incumbent senator. This is why Democrats are in such a tricky position- they do not have relevant candidates with enough name recognition to win. Republicans have faced this problem several times before, and they have come up with a solution that sees success enough of the time to keep trying it, and it may be time for the Democratic Party, at least in Texas, to try this strategy out for itself: run a celebrity.

There is a historical precedent for celebrities winning (see 2008 MNSEN; 2003 CAGOV; 2016 presidential) and losing (see 2022 PASEN; 2022 GASEN; 2022 AZGOV) electoral races, and a few Democrats or independents that may be able to have a shot at taking down Cruz.

The first candidate that has potential to run is Shark Tank cohost Mark Cuban, who is an independent, but might run as a Democrat. Cuban, by virtue of being on Shark Tank, is incredibly wealthy, with a net worth of nearly $5 billion and would therefore be able to fund a large portion of his campaign himself. Cuban's political views, though not explicitly stated very often, he seems to lean towards libertarianism, which may very well help him in the largely conservative state of Texas. He commissioned a 2020 presidential poll with himself as an independent candidate and pulled large numbers of voters from both Trump and Biden. Further, Cuban does not even need to run as a Democrat- if he were to run as an independent (or other classification, for that matter), his candidacy may be endorsed by the Texas Democratic Party, a la Evan McMullin's 2022 Senate candidacy. This would help to lessen alienation of Republican voters and make himself more appealing to conservatives while not severely worsening his appeal to liberal voters. Cuban could make a good shot for Cruz' seat, but he would have to play his cards just right to fend off a challenge from the left.

Another maybe-independent-maybe-Democratic candidate is legendary actor and potential 2022 gubernatorial candidate Matthew McConaughey. McConaughey has not publicly stated which party he affiliates with, but he heavily considered a bid (though we do not know with which, if any, party) against incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott in 2022. Though he did not end up running, the speculation of a bid was so great that polls were conducted with him as a candidate. In a three-way race, there were a few polls that had McConaughey coming in second, defeating a Democrat. There were several one-on-one polls done between McConaughey and Abbott that had McConaughey winning, and Abbott is not nearly as disliked as Cruz. The key difference here, though, is that this is a governor race and not a senate race. Since senate elections are federal and governor elections are local, senate races are much more likely to be partisan, which would hamper any Democrat's/Democratic aligned candidate's ability to win this race, which is only further amplified by the increased turnout of partisans in 2024 on account of the year's status as a presidential election year. McConaughey, who has little to no political experience right now, would also likely be best suited for a gubernatorial seat as opposed to a senatorial seat, as most celebrities successfully seeking political office start off by running for an executive position (see Ronald Reagan; Donald Trump; Clint Eastwood). Should he run, though, McConaughey seems to be pretty popular in Texas, which is more than what Cruz can say, so he may be able to pull off a victory, especially if he does a McMullinesque strategy and is a Democratic Party-endorsed independent.

The last notable celebrity that may run is Gregg Popovich, commonly regarded as one of the best coaches the NBA has ever seen. Though relatively advanced in age (74 as of 5/14/2023), even by senatorial standards (the oldest freshman senator was 75 on election day), Popovich has been politically active recently, typically in favor of the Democratic Party. Though his age might be a turn-off for some voters, his legendary status in the sports world would help him win over independent, and even some Republican, voters, which can be seen in 2020, when longtime football coach Tommy Tuberville defeated incumbent Senator Doug Jones by a margin of over 20%.

Even with any of these three celebrity candidates, unseating Cruz is a tall task for anyone, regardless of his approval ratings, though these three candidates may be more capable of defeating him than most politicians. They have the ability to shape their platform from scratch and do not have a history of making statements while still having a high name recognition that may win them a seat in the federal senate.

Regardless, Colin Allred seems to be the frontrunner for the nomination until or unless someone else more prominent enters the race. And no matter who the Democratic nominee/endorsee is, chances are Cruz still wins more often than not.

[factcheckdotorg]

[statespoll]

United States Senate election in Texas, 2018.  Cruz(Rep) vs O'Rourke (Dem). Emerson 10/28-10/30.

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

I. Summary

1. Poll results

Emerson 10/28-10/30, 781 LV

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-west-virginia-senate-race-tightens-texas-senate-race-remains-close-republicans-look-hold-three-house-seats-wv

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/news/press-release/ecp_tx_2018final.xls

Cruz 50.32% / O'Rourke 47.12%

2) Adjusted %

(1) Adjusted %(considered as realistic Party ID %):

REP 37.5% / DEM 31% / IND 31.5%

34.9875 + 1.953 + 8.7885

Cruz: REP(37.5%)x93.3%+ DEM(31%)x6.3%+IND(31.5%)x27.9%= 45.73%

O'Rourke: REP(37.5%)x5.1%+ DEM(31%)x92.5%+IND(31.5%)x61.6%= 49.99%

Dikeman: REP(37.5%)x0.5%+ DEM(31%)x0.9%+IND(31.5%)x0.35%= 1.58%

O’Rourke(Dem) +4.26%

My Analysis: Shocking results, But  I highly doubt about O’Rourke really would get 61.6% support from IND.

FYI, Presidential Election, Texas 2016 Exit Poll.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/texas/president

Among the IND voters: Trump 52% / Hillary 38% / Johnson 7% / Stein 2%

So, IND samples could be an outlier.  if IND: Cruz 40% / O’Rouke 50% something like that, Then Cruz 49.54% / O’Rouke 46.25% / Dikeman 1.58%

Cruz(Rep) +3.29%

[bigsampresentz]

This Ga weather tho 🤷🏾‍♂️🥶😂🚨🔥💯 #VIBEWITHME Subscribe my #podcast BIG SAM PRESENTZ “RAW” Available on #iheartradio and ALL other major #podcasting platforms. #FatTuesday, #TuesdayThoughts, #MardiGras, #traffic, #TuesdayMotivation, #BuildTheWall, #goodmorning, #NYC, #ELCHAPOAct, #TXSen, #smile, #PaczkiDay, #love, #music, #truth, #Repost, #sunrise, #life, (at Grovetown, Georgia) https://www.instagram.com/p/BuoIJjxgd75/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=1uducg7t6lcwz

[kailani]

On Election Eve, Beto O’Rourke faces the media in his hometown. Tonight was his last rally in what’s been an incredibly long campaign. Texas Day 8 for us started with an early morning event at the House of Blues in Houston and ended here in El Paso, where O’Rourke will soon learn his fate. ✈️ It’s been a hell of a ride and a hell of an honor to cover both @betoorourke and @sentedcruz in this final long stretch of the 2018 midterms. Beyond thankful to the people of Texas and the warm and welcoming voters we’ve spoken with from all over the political spectrum. One more day. #Decision2018 #TXSen #RoadWarriors. (at El Paso, Texas) https://www.instagram.com/p/Bp00yE8gwO0/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=k51pz9p5y90l

[ofelectionizing-blog]

In #txsen, we still have Ted Cruz ahead. Will he stay there? #election2018 https://www.instagram.com/p/BpNN_jDF29e/?utm_source=ig_tumblr_share&igshid=112pazc1hdcwu

[plusorminuscongress]

New story in Politics from Time: Beto O’Rourke Dropped the F-Bomb on Live TV During His Concession Speech

Beto O’Rourke may have lost Texas on Tuesday, but he did not go gently into that good night.

After Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly won re-election in one of the 2018 midterm election’s closest races across the country, Democratic nominee O’Rourke gave a passionate concession speech.

Praising his supporters for their efforts, O’Rourke said “all of you showing the country how you do this. I am so f-cking proud of you guys,” to cheers from the crowd.

MSNBC apologized for airing the expletive via local Austin, Texas channel KXAN soon after.

“Sorry for the F-bomb,” Brian Williams said. “We have no control of what’s in the concession speeches.”

His unfiltered move is not without precedent.

In fact, in September, Cruz released a political TV ad featuring O’Rourke using the f-bomb in a speech to suggest that his rallies were inappropriate for children.

“So, he’s showing up across Texas, sharing his wit … his wisdom … and his character,” the ad’s voiceover said. “If Beto shows up in your town, maybe keep the kids at home. Beto O’Rourke, he’s showing the f-ck up.”

But on Tuesday night, viewers who were surprised by O’Rourke’s foul language took to Twitter to sound off on his use of the F-bomb.

Some pointed out he was simply living up to his punk rock past. See a sampling of reactions below.

Warning, some bad language:

Well, he's certainly a rock star. pic.twitter.com/0LmuT6z5Eb

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) November 7, 2018

KXAN clutched their pearls so hard. I'm still chuckling. So many of us are so fucking proud of you and your campaign, @BetoORourke!

— Jessica Luther (@jessicawluther) November 7, 2018

31. @BetoORourke just now: “I’m so fucking proud of you guys.”

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) November 7, 2018

"I'm so fucking proud of you guys," Beto O'Rourke tells his crowd in a fired-up speech after narrowly losing the Texas Senate race.

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 7, 2018

.@BetoORourke on MSNBC, no bleep and no tape delay: “I’m so fucking proud of you guys” #txsen

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) November 7, 2018

BETO drops an F bomb on live TV to his crowd of supporters in concession speech: "I'm so fucking proud of you guys"

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) November 7, 2018

Well, he's certainly a rock star. pic.twitter.com/0LmuT6z5Eb

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) November 7, 2018

When @BetoORourke said “I’m so fucking proud of you guys.” #BetoForPresident #Beto2020 pic.twitter.com/f80CoNVRnE

— Jatsive Hernandez (@jatsive_h) November 7, 2018

By Ashley Hoffman on November 07, 2018 at 12:48AM

[nickyschneiderus]

Ted Cruz’s latest tweet is an inspiring message of hope—from Beto O’Rourke

On Friday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) tweeted a video clip that showed a fiery, passionate, rousing speech addressing a recent murder in the community. The crowd bursts into applause and audience members leap to their feet.

It’s an inspiring bit of campaigning, but Cruz isn’t the candidate in the video—his opponent, Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is.

In Beto O'Rourke's own words #TXSenateDebate pic.twitter.com/uUzW7DSqgo

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) September 21, 2018

Cruz captioned the tweet, “In Beto O’Rourke’s own words #TXSenateDebate,” with no other context about why he was sharing the video. 

In the clip, O’Rourke is addressing the murder of Botham Shem Jean, a Black man from Dallas who was murdered in his own home by a police officer.

“In this day and age, in this very year, in this community, that a young man, African-American, in his own apartment, is shot and killed by a police officer. And when, when we all want justice, and the facts, and the information to make an informed decision, what is released to the public? That he had a small amount of marijuana in his kitchen. How can that be just in this country? How can we continue to lose the lives of unarmed black men in the United States of America at the hands of white police officers,” asks O’Rourke in the clip.

It seems that Cruz tweeted this particular clip to demonstrate that he is firmly on the side of law enforcement—even when the law enforcement officer in question has been charged with manslaughter, has admitted to shooting Jean, and was just dismissed from the department. 

Subsequent tweets and retweets suggest Cruz is trying to position himself as the law enforcement candidate:

I think it is offensive to call police officers modern day Jim Crow. That is not Texas –> https://t.co/Qpn6kYs8hQ #TXSen

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) September 22, 2018

I choose @tedcruz for #TXSen because I agree with Ted that the vast majority of police officers are brave, honorable men and women who risk their lives to keep us safe: https://t.co/VoqNmS7LLi RETWEET if you do too! #TXSen #ChooseCruz

— Team Cruz (@TeamTedCruz) September 22, 2018

TMPA, along with the @DPA_PoliceAssoc, @HCDO_ (Harris County Deputies Organization), @DPSOA, @TexasFOP, and the Texas Law Enforcement Council, have issued a statement on Beto O'Rourke's likening law enforcement to the "new Jim Crow." pic.twitter.com/RSQE6AKkHD

— TMPA (@TMPALegislative) September 22, 2018

The original clip featuring O’Rourke has garnered 42,000 likes, plus a number of replies—the majority in support of O’Rourke.

So…. you're endorsing @BetoORourke? Cause otherwise, this makes absolutely no sense…

— Sean Kleier (@SeanKleier) September 23, 2018

Every time I see your "face only a blind mother could love", I send Beto $20 from Illinois. You're costing me this week. Stay off the tube you butt ugly dog.

— James Craig (@OKinChicago) September 24, 2018

Wow, thank you! I’m definitely encouraging my Texas friends and family to vote for @BetoORourke now! You’ve done an excellent job of proving that he is the obvious choice and far superior to his opponent.

— Aaron Knight (@bbaaronk) September 23, 2018

Dude, your social media team has a thing for @BetoORourke . Course a lot of us do, but it's funny that you're still paying them to promote him.

— trumpfingers (@trumpfingers17) September 23, 2018

Hi, @tedcruz. Thanks for showing us this clip that confirms, once again, what a fine, moral, upstanding man your opponent is. I’m not sure why you would do that but I suspect that it’s because you’re not very bright.

— Mary (@angry_gram) September 23, 2018

O’Rourke further endeared himself to voters with a video of himself air-drumming to The Who’s “Baba O’Riley” while going through a Whataburger drive-thru after the debate he had with Cruz on Friday. 

Post-debate Whataburger!

Posted by Beto O'Rourke on Friday, September 21, 2018

Cruz is apparently banking on the idea that Texans will support a pro-police candidate despite the unsettling facts of the Jean case and the number of high-profile cases of white police officers killing Black civilians with impunity.

As Vox points out, Cruz’s message implies that the idea of a candidate calling for justice for an unarmed Black man murdered in his own home is wrong.

from Ricky Schneiderus Curation https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/ted-cruz-video-beto-orourke-twitter/

[loconservative]

Tweeted

Sorry Liberal Media & Hollywood, Beto lost. #TXSen pic.twitter.com/4xiCP576iZ

— America Rising PAC (@AmericaRising) November 7, 2018

[statespoll]

Texas: Trump vs Biden Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 933 LV.

1. Poll results

Texas: Trump vs Biden

Data for Progress, 10/15-10/18. 933 LV.

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/tx.pdf

Summary

1. 2020 Presidential race

1) Poll results: Biden 47% / Trump 46%

2) Adjusted %: Trump 52.72% / Biden 43.92%.   Trump +8.8%

2. Adjusted %

1) Party ID %

* 2018 TXSen Fox Voter Analysis(with leaners)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=TX&type=S

REP 49% / DEM 41% / IND 10%

considered realistic Texas Party ID % Based on Exit Poll 2016/2018 +

VBM/In Person

Current Early Voting numbers according to TargetSmart

In Texas, voters have cast 40.5% of the total votes counted statewide in the 2016 general election.

At least 3,635,507 voters have cast ballots in the 2020 general election.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

REP 50% / DEM 41.4% / Other 8.6%

First time voters in TX: 220,064 + Votes

REP 103,745 (47.1%) / DEM 78,691 (35.8%)

Infrequent Voters in TX: 674,274 + Votes

REP 296,466 (44.0%) / 275,330 (40.8%)

Considering Election Day

My model(With Leaners): REP 52% / DEM 40% / IND 8%

(1) Trump vs Biden  

Trump: REP(52%)x92%+ DEM(40%)x5%+IND(8%)x36%= 52.72%

Biden: REP(52%)x6%+ DEM(40%)x94%+IND(8%)x40%= 43.92%

[stimulintellect]

Wow. Looks like O’Rourke has some explaining to do. #TXsen https://t.co/OVIyJW8t6o

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) November 2, 2018

[badlands75]

Badlands75RT @leahmcelrath: Apparently it’s been happening for years (?!) and has not been addressed by @TXsecofstate. This story quotes others like me whose @BetoORourke votes changed to Cruz by the time they reached the review page. #IVoted #TexasVotes #Houston #TXSen #TeamBeto https://t.co/VAmEfcDiqd

Apparently it’s been happening for years (?!) and has not been addressed by @TXsecofstate. This story quotes others like me whose @BetoORourke votes changed to Cruz by the time they reached the review page.#IVoted#TexasVotes#Houston#TXSen#TeamBetohttps://t.co/VAmEfcDiqd

— LeAhhhhhh! 😱 McElrath (@leahmcelrath) October 26, 2018

from Twitter https://twitter.com/Badlands75 October 26, 2018 at 11:53AM via IFTTT

[wmathison]

RT @ChristianForTX: Robert “Beto” O’Rourke would shut down the oil and gas industry if he had it his way. That is 30% of our economy and 10% of our jobs. It is also $11 billion in taxes we use for education and other pressing priorities. #txsen #wrongfortexas Vote @tedcruz!

Robert “Beto” O’Rourke would shut down the oil and gas industry if he had it his way. That is 30% of our economy and 10% of our jobs. It is also $11 billion in taxes we use for education and other pressing priorities. #txsen #wrongfortexas Vote @tedcruz!

— Wayne Christian (@ChristianForTX) October 17, 2018

via Twitter https://twitter.com/wmathison October 16, 2018 at 11:00PM

[serenitysally]

A Choice This November | #TXSen #ChooseCruz

[trumpfeed]

Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and has noted voted for any Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

[michaelgabrill]

Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and has noted voted for any Democrat to statewide office since 1994.