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Calling North Korea's Bluff Will Force China to Crack Down

if you need more information  kindly cheakout our site.If the United States and its allies want to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, and not just temporarily allay tensions, they must call Kim Jong-Il's bluff by escalating the situation.  As North Korea's primary benefactor, China is the only nation that can force the North to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and return to 6-Party Talks.  However, China will not exert such pressure, until the threat of instability on its border forces it to recalculate the utility of supporting the Kim regime. When the liability of North Korea becomes a greater threat to China's internal security than the potential presence of American troops at its border, China will cooperate with the American alliance.  Contrary to common media depiction, Kim is a rational actor.  In fact, when scrutinizing North Korea's conduct with the supposition that every action it has taken is for the preservation of Kim's personal power, it is apparent that even the most provocative actions have been deliberate.  America must use a realist approach to exploit these aims, if it wants to end the last great impasses of the Cold War.

The North had already earned global condemnation early this year, in April, when it conducted its first long-range missile test since 2006.  Nevertheless, in clear violation of United Nations Resolution 1718, on May 25, North Korea conducted its second underground nuclear test and subsequently tested several short-range missiles.  The nuclear device was detonated about 50 miles northwest of the city of Kilju, near the site of the first atomic test.  Analyst believed the first bomb was less than one kiloton in size and only partially successful; however, Russian officials have estimated that the second had a yield of 10 to 15 kilotons.  This would make it comparable to the atomic bomb America dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in August of 1945.  North Korea could possess enough plutonium for at least a half dozen more bombs of this size, but this estimate could change.  North Korea has also restarted production at its nuclear fuel fabrication plant at Yongbyon.

This latest flurry of melodrama from the North has come about for three reasons.  First, North Korea feels it has been ignored and wants to force the new Obama Administration into bilateral talks.  Second, Kim Jong-il's health is likely worse than reported and he is trying to rally military support around himself and his potential successor, likely his son-in-law or youngest son.  Third, the cash strapped North wants to solidify its status as a nuclear power to attract clients, such as Iran.

The international response to the tests was predictable.  There was unanimous censure from the UN Security Council and agreement by most members, that sanctions are appropriate, but there is currently no draft for a new resolution circulating.  Part of the problem is China.  Because of China's close ties to Pyongyang and its insistence that North Korea halt its nuclear activities, the latest test was seen as a "loss of face" for China, which explains China's unusually strong condemnation of North Korea.  Still, enthusiasm in Beijing for a new round of sanctions has been tepid.

So far, China has only agreed in principle to sanctions.  This is problematic; even if China did vote for a new round of sanctions, they would have little effect without China's genuine adherence.  More than any other nation, China has the most leverage over North Korea.  As Judith Miller (2009) has pointed out, "[China] supplies between 80-90 percent of North Korea's power, 90 percent of its crude oil and all of its diesel fuel.  Between 70 and 80 percent of North Korea's food imports come through China".

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu stated that China has two main objectives, a nuclear free Korean peninsula and general stability in the region.   This is true, but the Chinese definition of "stability" is specific to its strategic interests.  China fears greater sanctions will lead to North Korea's collapses, which could result in the inundation of the poor industrial rustbelt of Northeastern China (Manchuria) with millions of North Korean refugees.  This is especially threatening to China since Changbai (Baekdu in Korean) Mountain is in this region.  The area around this mountain has historically been contentious, because Koreans consider it the place where their origin.  Further, China does not want a united American-friendly Korea on its border.

Like China, The United States and its allies, Japan and South Korea, also desire a non-nuclear North Korea.  For some reason, not supported by historical precedence, the Obama Administration and many analysts seems to believe that their ability to achieve this lies solely in getting North Korea to rejoin 6-Party Talks.  The hope is that the united will of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia will force North Korea to dismantle its nuclear facilities in return for a normalization of relations and economic and humanitarian aid.  There is even talk of the U.S. assuaging North Korea by assigning a high-profile diplomat or even giving into bilateral talks.  These are stopgap measures that will lead back to the same situation as soon as the North sees an opportunity to exploit the process.

In 1994, the United States and North Korea signed a framework where the North agreed to shut down their nuclear facilities and accept weapons inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency in return for normalized relations with the United States and large sums in aid from Japan, South Korea and the U.S.  North Korea failed to honor the agreement.  Another agreement was reached in February 2007, where the North agreed to give up nuclear weapons and dismantle its nuclear reactor in return for fuel, food and North Korea's removal from America's list of state sponsors of terrorism.  North Korea also violated this deal.  After 15 years, the only results have been little more than the repeated negotiation of bribes.

North Korea will never honestly negotiate a dismantling of its nuclear weapons; this is the only trump card that has ensured cash flow into the regime.  The North is "mafia state" lead by the Kim family with a wide patronage network that extends into the Worker's Party and the military.  When the liquidity of this system dries up, Kim family rule ends.  China understands this well.  The allies cannot permit a de facto acceptance of a nuclear-armed North.  This situation would likely lead Japan to remilitarize and potentially nuclearize, which would destabilize the power balance in the region.  It will also be a deathblow to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, as many states will be encouraged to develop their own nuclear capabilities.

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