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Top U.S. Multifamily Rent Growth Markets — Q4 2021 Despite a slow start to the year, multifamily effective rent growth for the U.S. overall was up 12.5% during 2021, the largest annual gain since Moody’s Analytics CRE began tracking data in 1980, as Sun Belt markets continued to drive the recovery. As was the case throughout the year, Florida markets were found up and down the list of top rent growth markets. Jacksonville led the way, rising a whopping 27.3%. The city is one of the fastest growing in the U.S., driven by a revitalization of the downtown area into a walkable urban center. Other Florida multifamily markets making the list of top rent growth markets were Tampa-St. Petersburg (up 26.1%), Palm Beach (up 25.7%), and Orlando (up 22.8%), with Fort Lauderdale (up 18.9%) rounding out the list. The two primary Arizona markets remained among the year’s leaders, finishing sixth and seventh, respectively. Rents in Phoenix increased 22.7%, while rents in Tucson increased 22.5%. Las Vegas remained high on the list, up 19.7% for the year. These cities are also all among the nation’s fastest growing, and continued to benefit from renters seeking more affordable options outside of the pricier markets in the region. Here's a full look at the top U.S. multifamily rent growth markets for Q4 2021, with data provided by Moody’s Analytics CRE.
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U.S. Multifamily Snapshot Infographic Q4 2021
The U.S. multifamily market finished 2021 at record-setting highs. Rent growth climbed 12.5% during the year, after falling 2.4% in 2020, and was the highest increase since Moody’s Analytics CRE began tracking the data in 1980. The vacancy rate improved to 4.7%, down from 5.3% at the end of 2020. Real Capital Analytics reported that sales volume reached a record high of $335.3 billion during the year, shattering the previous high of $193.1 billion in 2019. Cap rates for multifamily transactions averaged 4.5%, down from 5.0% at the end of 2020, and setting a new record low. Despite a spike in COVID-19 infections to start 2022, the labor market surged in January, adding 467,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate improved to 4.0%, well below the peak of 14.7%, although it remained above the pre-COVID level of 3.5%. Home prices continued to make headlines, with the national S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index rising 18.8% year over year in November. However, prices showed signs of slowing amid buyer fatigue. Here’s a quick look at the U.S. multifamily finance and investment benchmarks for Q4 2021.
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2021 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions https://www.realtor.com/research/2021-national-housing-forecast/ Realtor.com - December 2, 2020 | By Danielle Hale “We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.”
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Indianapolis posted the strongest multifamily rent growth year-over-year, at 3.1%. Additional Midwest markets also were among the national leaders, such as Cleveland (up 2.8% year-over-year), Kansas City and St. Louis (both up 2.6%).
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The multifamily market felt the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter. Following a historically strong 10-year run, rent growth slowed and sales volume declined, as investors showed caution. Although the quarter’s results show that multifamily is not immune to the recession, and the course of the pandemic is still unknown, the sector has shown resiliency as compared with other sectors. (Source: Arbor Chatter)
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Weekly initial jobless claims reached 1.106 for the week ending August 15th, higher than the 920,000 that economists had forecast and 971,000 curing the previous week.
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During the first half of 2020, the multifamily lending environment experienced a historically high level of refinance activity, although there was a steep decline in sales activity.
- Refinances accounted for 73% of apartment loans, up from 61% in 2019.
- Apartment mortgage rates fell to 3.6%, marking the lowest rate on record.
- A total of $55.0 billion in sales volume was recorded, sharply down from the pace of 2019’s record high.
Read the full report on Arbor Chatter: Midyear 2020 Multifamily Investment Market Update.
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