moderngreece-blog

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Half of Germans against debt relief for Greece

Half of Germans against debt relief for Greece

Reuters – Around half of Germans are against granting debt relief to Greece and around three in 10 want it to quit the eurozone, a survey showed on Friday.

The INSA poll for the Bild newspaper showed 46.4 percent of people living in Germany, Europe’s paymaster, thought giving Greece debt relief would be unfair for other eurozone countries.

That compared with around a fifth (18.4 percent) who did…

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A lack of trust is blighting Greece

February 20, 2017 (Link) By, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Financial Times (whole article provided here, because you would otherwise have to pay to read the whole article on the FT website.)

Seven years after the start of the Greek crisis, it’s not easy to follow what’s going on between the International Monetary Fund, the eurogroup of finance ministers and the Greek government. The negotiating process is being impaired by so many contradictions and a Catch-22.

First, the IMF wants Greece to implement a milder fiscal adjustment programme than the eurogroup, which insists on a primary surplus — which excludes debt interest payments — of 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. The IMF is probably right, at least on paper, as the country’s dire economic situation leaves it ill-equipped to deal with more austerity. Last year’s primary surplus was close to 1 per cent, and can hardly be increased in the current environment. On the other hand, experience has shown that Greece has often fallen short of its targets, not only concerning the budget but also structural reforms. Given such a record, a more ambitious target may be necessary to ensure that Athens keeps up to minimum commitments.

[Lets start here. First you say “Last years’s primary surplus was close to 1 percent, and can hardly be increased in the current environment.” 

Then you say:  “On the other hand, experience has shown that Greece has often fallen short of its targets”

That is not another hand. That is THE hand. These “two” points you have identified are not only connected, not only related, they have a cause and effect relationship -- Greece has only managed to bring in a 1 percent surplus after all the austerity, wage and public spending cuts, depression level unemployment levels, and all resources being put into paying back “bailout” debt before, or even replacing payment for, any other of Greece’s needs. This means, since there is little to no investment in ANY part of the Greek economy, improvement in decaying civil structures, help for disabled and elderly and unemployed, and job creation in a country with a ~23% unemployment rate. Meanwhile, businesses are taxed so heavily in order try to make the targets demanded by the eurogroups, that they are forced to lay off even more workers, and invest in even less of everything, in order to afford just the basics of their business to keep them running. ]

Second, the IMF wants the eurogroup to concede more debt relief to Greece, given that debt is likely to be on an rising trend again by the end of the next decade. The fund is certainly right on paper, as all analyses show that Greece will not be able to repay its debt. The eurogroup has already committed to debt relief, as recognised by the IMF, but is reluctant to be more specific lest the pressure eases on the Greek government to continue implementing the programme. Indeed, experience has shown that debt restructuring tends to relax the reform effort.

[Yes, because these “reforms” being demanded by the Eurogroups are to sell off extremely valuable assets that could and have been major sources of revenue for the Greek economy, just to obtain the short term gain from the sale in order to pay off debt -- not to mention austerity measure contribute to plateauing at best, though rising at times, unemployment rate. And a minimum wage that has been going down since the financial crisis in 2008, and is the only EU country who’s minimum wage is actually LOWER than it was in 2008. Public transportation infrastructure is breaking down with no money to pay for its maintenance, and those who run the public transportation have had their salaries cut over and over and over. This includes trains and trams and busses and AIRLINES and metros. This underpaying trend of civil workers in present in all other areas of civil servants and employees. Overall, wages have dropped dramatically, and taxes increased exponentially. So if debt restructuring “tends to relax reform effort,” it’s because the level of “reform effort” is INSANE!!!]

Third, the IMF wants Greece to implement a series of measures immediately, to reduce the eurogroup’s doubts about the required reforms. These requests are certainly legitimate, but Athens considers them unfeasible in the current economic and political environment.

[WHY DON’T YOU LISTEN TO ATHENS!!! THEY ARE TELL YOU THAT THEY CANNOT DO IT! THEY CANNOT CUT ANY MORE, THEY CANNOT MAKE ANYMORE “REFORMS,” THEY’RE NOT LYING, THEY’RE NOT TRYING TO SLINK OUT OF PAYING BACK THE MONEY, THEY JUST CANNOOOOTTT DOO ITTTT]

Fourth, the IMF has indicated that it will not endorse the programme unless its requests, both to Greece concerning the adjustment programme and to the eurogroup on debt relief, are accepted. For their part, Germany and other European countries have signalled that unless the IMF signs up, they themselves cannot support the programme, even though they disagree with the fund on its contents, in terms of both fiscal adjustment and debt relief.

[Germany, you are a fucking asshole, and we get you think you’re making a big ass sacrifice, but no one is going to pat you on the head for this one.]

In the end, it’s all a question of trust, which has been seriously eroded over the past seven years. [FUCKKKKK YOUUU] The IMF continues to put too much trust into its numerical calculations about debt sustainability [so your fault, not Greece’s], assuming that when policy measures are adopted, they are effective and cannot be reversed. [When has Austerity only ever worked. EVER?] The Greek case over recent years has proved the contrary. [Again, give me one example where only Austerity ever brought an economy back from depression] The IMF doesn’t seem to trust eurozone countries either to deliver on debt relief when the time comes, even though debt relief has been provided in the past. Eurozone ministers, in turn, do not trust Greece to pursue its fiscal adjustment and reform path, if they give in too early on debt reduction. [Sociopaths. You’re Sociopaths.] The Greek government does not trust that it will obtain sufficient relief if it implements the conditions requested by the IMF.  [Now THAT’s something that has a grounding in history for fucking real] Some eurozone ministers do not trust European institutions to be tough enough with the Greek government, and have made their agreement conditional on the IMF.

[TOUGH ENOUGH? TOUGH ENOUGH? TOUGH ENOUGH? Are you on Mars? Do little ants bring your crumbs and arrange them on your kitchen counter and you interpret their patterns and that’s how you learn about what’s going on in Greece?]

The consequence of this lack of trust is that the Greek economy continues to underperform, [no, it’s because those demands on Greece are impossible to perform] the Greek people are losing faith and international investors are reluctant to put capital in a country that may be forced out of the eurozone.   [That’s all on the Eurogroup. Thank, you fucked up the possibility of bringing in non-IMF non-EU sources of income into Greece with your fuck up. Con-fucking-grats. ]

As in the past, the solution is likely to be found in the end, with some concessions on each side. The Greek government will get some last-minute measure through parliament, the eurogroup will agree on a slightly lower primary deficit and to being more specific on debt relief, and the IMF will provide some reassurance about debt sustainability. Nobody would benefit from a failure to agree. But whatever agreement is reached, it will not solve the issue definitively.

[Greece has not gained shit by any of the recent bailout agreements.]

It will be a long time before mutual trust [Fuck Off] is restored. This may require some of the people around the negotiating table to pass the hand to others.  

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi is a former member of the executive board of the European Central Bank and currently visiting scholar at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs and LUISS School of European Political Economy in Rome

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017. All rights reserved. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. [screw you]

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Romania nominates first female, first Muslim prime minister, Sevil Shhaideh

The biggest political party in Romania, the Social Democrats, has nominated 52-year-old Sevil Shhaideh for the role of prime minister.

If she is approved, she will be the country’s first female and first Muslim to serve in that capacity.

Shhaideh, an ethnic Tatar, must be approved by President Klaus Iohannis and Parliament.

The Social Democrats turned to Shhaideh after winning 45% of the vote in the Dec. 11 elections. 

Shhaideh served as “minister of regional development for six months in the last Social Democratic government.” Read more

follow @the-movemnt

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when white europeans say “lmao americans are so dumb, how could they let this happen??”

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Newly released Eurostat data on national minimum wages in the European Union have shown that while the minimum wage increased in all EU countries, in Greece it has decreased to level lower than in 2008.

In ten countries, out of the 22 that have a national minimum wage, the amount amounted to less than €500 a month, while in 7 EU states, workers on the minimum take home more than €1,000 a month.

(source)

Gross minimum wage was decreased in February 2011 as it was one of the prerequisites of the 1. bailout agreement. Aim of the decrease was to boost competitiveness.

580 euro per month is for full time job and for workers above 25 years old. Those below receive 510 euro gross.

In real Greek life, minimum wage is paid also to older workers, ie. an engineer, when they get hired in a job without specific experience in this sector, i.e at a supermarket.

The only competitiveness boosted in Greece is the competition among the unemployed that allows employees to dump salaries and wages.

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“High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article.  See our T&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. “

No FT, I’m going to fucking copy and paste your article because it’s not high quality and you did no investment in writing this shit, and I don’t give 3/4 of a fuck about your bottom line. 

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[My comments in brackets]

BERLIN — Greece is back. Just not the way anyone had hoped.

[How in fucking Christ’s name are you surprised that it’s not “good news”]

For months, all was quiet on the Southern front. [Because you are supremely excellent at being self centered] But in recent weeks, the traveling circus of Greece watchers has been sounding the alarm bells. [traveling circus = people who pay attention to Greece even when it isn’t an immediate threat to themselves]

Newspapers are again chock-full of hackneyed references to Greek mythology. They bear a familiar Aesopian warning: Greece is on the cusp of disaster. Grexit looms. Beware, they signal, Europe’s future is hanging in the balance. [I threw up in my mouth]

“Greece lies like a bomb in the European Union’s foundations,” a New York Times commentator warned last week. [Yeah totally a bomb like a person dying from cancer is a bomb]

If so, it’s a dud. [because it’s not a threat to you. THANK.GOD.]

While a new explosion in Greece might be a welcome distraction to anyone who’s been following the latest goings-on in Washington, we’re unlikely to see one. 

[THIS IS THE MOST HEARTLESS NARCISSISTIC REPULSIVE THING ANYONE COULD SAY HERE! WHO IN THE NAME OF THE HOLY LORD THOUGHT THIS WAS AN APPROPRIATE COMMENT TO MAKE]

Yes, Greece faces another do-or-die moment with creditors withholding its umpteenth bailout tranche until Athens agrees to further reforms. [Oh right, agreements wont be reached until Athens agrees to further reforms. There is no other compromise possible, yes of course] Yes, if Greece doesn’t get the money, it can’t pay its debts, triggering god knows what. And, yes, Greece’s government bonds are tanking once again as investors get “nervous.” 

All the noise notwithstanding, there’s little to worry about if history is a guide.

[FUCK YOU]

When Eurogroup finance ministers gather in Brussels on Monday to discuss the Greek “situation,” as they call it, they will reprise a ritual now well into its seventh year. (Fun fact: It took the Allies less time to defeat Hitler in World War II.)

[Are you. Comparing the Greek Economic Crisis. To Hitler’s devastation of Europe. Are you seriously doing that. ]

Depending on how one counts, Greece is either in the midst of its third or fifth bailout, aka, “program” in Brussels-speak.

Throughout that period, there have been countless inflection points, moments when it appeared the delicate financial scaffolding European institutions had erected to keep Greece from collapsing could come crashing down. Yet no matter how bad things got, the Europeans somehow managed to avert disaster, often at the last moment.

[Here’s a few links that might show how at least some “Europeans” far from averted disaster:

Data Shows Greece’s Job Loss in January 2017 at 16-Υear Record Low Survey of Extreme Poverty in Greece ]

So far, Europe and the International Monetary Fund have committed more than €200 billion to prop up Greece. Along the way, Athens eliminated a further €100 billion in debt by forcing private investors to take big “haircuts,” or writedowns.

If there’s one thing Greece has proved in recent years, it’s that regardless of how tough its governments talk, they will ultimately buckle to creditor demands.  

[DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY?????? BECAUSE THE WESTERN EUROPEAN POWERS THAT RUN THE EU DON’T CONSIDER GREEK PEOPLE’S WELL BEING EVEN WORTH CONSIDERATION, AND WILL THREATEN GREECE WITH ANYTHING CLOSE OF MURDER IN ORDER TO GET THEIR WAY]

It happened under the center-left Pasok, under the center-right New Democracy and more recently under the populist left Syriza party. 

[Congrats, you figured it out.] 

The reason is simple: No matter how tough the austerity is for Greece, being in the euro is still better than crashing out, a harsh reality the vast majority of Greeks accept.

[Accept??? Accepppttt???????? THEY VOTED AGAINST AUSTERITY IN THE FACE OF POSSIBLY BEING KICKED OUT OF THE EUROZONE! THIS LITERALLY HAPPENED! THIS WAS LITERALLY WHAT WAS AT STAKE IN A REFERENDUM, AND GREEKS SAID THEY WOULD RATHER LEAVE THE EUROZONE THAN SUFFER FROM AUSTERITY ANY LONGER!]

This made me physically sick. 

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I’ve been seeing 10,000 “Greece is back in the headlines” headlines, and they make me want to scream, how is the west so incredibly narcissistic and dispassionate oh wait

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Almost exactly like what happened after the German invasion in Greece during 1941-44. 

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In a recent presentation of his book, Laid Low, which examines the International Monetary Fund’s role in the eurozone crisis, author and journalist Paul Blustein disclosed a memo dated May 4, 2010, from the IMF’s then head of research Olivier Blanchard, to Poul Thomsen, who headed the Greek mission at the time.

In his missive, Blanchard warned that the cumulative fiscal adjustment of 16 percentage points being demanded of Greece in such a short period of time and with such a high level of frontloading had never been achieved before.

According to Blanchard, not only was the task unprecedented, but Greece was being asked to achieve the impossible in unfavourable external circumstances, when everyone was barely recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis and without any other policy levers (low interest rates or exchange rate adjustment).

Blanchard foresaw what became a reality only about a year later: Even with “perfect policy implementation” the programme will be thrown off track rather quickly and the recession will be deeper and longer than expected, he warned.

Blanchard’s scepticism and warnings were ignored. Instead, political limitations took hold of the decision-making process and domestic-focussed calculations pushed Greece into trying to achieve the impossible.

This week, the former IMF chief economist admitted on Twitter that although he was not the one that leaked the memo he was not unhappy that the truth has been revealed because “it is seven years and still there is no clear/realistic plan” for Greece.

Athens is currently under pressure to adopt another 2 percent of GDP in new fiscal measures, which relate to the tax-free threshold and pension spending. Since 2010, Greece has adopted revenue-raising measures and spending cuts that are equivalent to more than a third of its economy and more than double what Blanchard had described as unprecedented almost seven years ago.

The Greek economy has been burdened with 35.6 billion euros in all sorts of taxes on income, consumption, duties, stamps, corporate taxation and increases in social security contributions. When totting all this up, it is remarkable that the economy still manages to function.

During the same period, the state has also found savings of 37.4 billion euros from cutting salaries, pensions, benefits and operational expenses. Discretionary spending is now so lean that even the IMF argues that in certain areas it needs to increase if Greece is to meet the minimum requirements in the provision of public services. 

[NO FUCKING SHIT]

When this misery started, Greece had to correct a primary deficit of 24 billion euros. But the painful fiscal adjustment Greeks have had to endure had turned out to be three times as much.

The IMF’s Thomsen, now the director of its European Department, recently argued that Greece doesn’t need any more austerity but brave policy implementation. Somehow, though, the discussion has ended up being about finding another 3.5 billion euros in taxes and cuts to pension spending. Bravery is nowhere to be seen.

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Lately the predominant narrative about Greece, pushed by EU as well as others, is that Greece is not only recovering, but out of the recession. You will find that the Greeks do not agree, and this is bullshit

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ALso none of these people except the Russian know the difference between Romanians and Roma

read the comments

It’s not about Greece or Greeks, it’s just about how horrible British people are

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read the comments

It’s not about Greece or Greeks, it’s just about how horrible British people are