nicholasswinford095-blog

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

EBay Promoting Secrets Revealed

Recognized Researcher Will Be Known As Healthcare Paper Ghostwriting.

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Hurricane Harvey threatens thousands of pets and livestock

(Reuters) - Animal rescue advocates in Texas scrambled on Friday to protect or evacuate pets and livestock ahead of Hurricane Harvey, which threatened the lives of thousands of animals in its path.

A hurricane warning sign is noticed under storm clouds, above a highway approaching Victoria, Texas, U.S. August 25, 2017. REUTERS/Rick WilkingAt one animal shelter in La Porte, officials transported dozens of dogs and cats to a shelter in Houston. Houston's Zoo stacked sandbags and left a "ride-out" crew to care for its 6,000 animals. In San Antonio, evacuees arrived to verify into pet-friendly hotels. "We were worried we wouldn't be capable to get back in and take care of the animals," said Clarence Anderson, La Porte's animal control supervisor. Awareness of the plight of animals in the path of a devastating storms has significantly enhanced since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when an estimated 250,000 dogs and cats have been displaced or died as a outcome of the storm, according to the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. Many men and women in New Orleans also opted out of evacuating simply because they did not want to leave their pets behind as animals were then barred from shelters. Legislation passed considering that now calls for authorities to include pets to current federal recommendations for disaster preparing, stated Dick Green, senior director of disaster response for group. Many hotels and some public transport systems now unwind pet restrictions in the course of such emergencies, while officials have stressed in public messaging the significance of evacuating with animals rather of leaving them behind. But Harvey could present a crucial test, in storm with the prospective to kill thousands of animals. "We're really concerned," Green said. Green was assisting stage boats in Louisiana to prepare for hundreds of anticipated water animal rescues at homes and farms along the Gulf Coast and inland, including in rural areas filled with livestock ranches. Green stated they have been also concerned about the possible loss of wildlife. On Friday, the Roman Forest Police Department in Texas turned to Facebook to plead with owners not to leave their pets tied outdoors with flooding most likely. Some animal shelters decided to stay put. Many staff at the Galveston Island Humane Society have been taking into consideration sleeping on an air mattresses alongside 200 animals sheltered in spot, stated director Caroline Dorsett-Pate. In Houston, groups were poised to bring animal carriers and pet food to Red Cross shelters for men and women arriving with pets, even though a lot of local residents had been offering to board animals, stated Julie Kuenstle, a spokeswoman for the Houston Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. Houston-area animal shelters have been filling rapidly, she said. "We've got fairgrounds and other areas that are supplying property for these who don't have a place for horses," she said. The Houston Humane Society was preparing to treat animals frequently injured by debris or drinking contaminated groundwater, said spokeswoman Monica Schmidt. Corpus Christi evacuees Irma and Kevin Pogue arrived on Friday in San Antonio and located a motel they could remain in that would also permit their dachshund, Gizzmo, the Corpus Christi Caller-Instances reported. "This is not a dog. This is a child," Kevin Pogue told the paper. "I am not going to be separated from my child, it really is that simple." Reporting by Chris Kenning in Chicago Editing by Frank McGurty and Sandra Maler

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Alibaba, Foxconn lead $350 million funding in electric car startup

BEIJING (Reuters) - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Foxconn Technology Co Ltd have led a 2.2 billion yuan ($347.74 million) funding round in Chinese electric car maker Xiaopeng https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/01/brazil-operation-car-wash-is-this-the-biggest-corruption-scandal-in-history Motors as competition escalates in the new power car (NEV) market place. A view of the Alibaba Group booth throughout the 2018 CES in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. January 9, 2018. REUTERS/Steve Marcus The most current injection brings the startup company's total funding to five billion yuan, it stated in a statement. It follows an earlier round in December in which Alibaba also participated. Xiaopeng, which debuted its electric auto at CES in Las Vegas this month, is one of several Chinese start off-ups searching to speed up development of battery-powered technology and compete with international leaders including Tesla Inc. China's new energy car sales are expected to grow by 40 percent in 2018, according to an business physique, even as the country's traditional automotive industry slowed sharply in 2017. The logo of Foxconn, the trading name of Hon Hai Precision Sector, is seen on prime of the company's headquarters in New Taipei City, Taiwan March 29, 2016. REUTERS/Tyrone you can find out more Siu/File Photo Xiaopeng says its 1st car, the 'G3', will hit the marketplace this year. Alibaba has invested heavily in wise auto technology and partnered with a handful of traditional western and Chinese carmakers, which includes Ford Motor Co and BMW. Other investors in the round incorporate IDG Capital as effectively as earlier investors GGV Capital, Morningside Venture Capital and Matrix Partners, Alibaba said on its press web site on Sunday.

Russian billionaire investor Yuri Milner is also supporting the initiative, the internet website mentioned. ($1 = six.3265 Chinese yuan)

Reporting by Cate Cadell Editing by Gopakumar Warrier

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

14 Pet Bloggers To Follow For A Fido-Friendly Vacation

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Hare Krishna, in full International Modern society of Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON)

well-liked identify of a semimonastic Vaishnava Hindu firm established in the United States in 1965 by A.C. Bhaktivedanta (Swami Prabhupada 1896–1977). This movement is a Western outgrowth of the common Bengali bhakti (devotional) yoga tradition, or Krishna Consciousness, which started in the 16th century. Bhakti yoga’s founder, Chaitanya Mahaprabhu (1485–1534?), advocated the pursuit of mystical devotion via repetitive chanting, specifically of the Hare Krishna mantra: Hare Krishna, Hare Krishna Krishna Krishna, Hare Hare Hare Rama, Hare Rama Rama Rama, Hare Hare. As a younger gentleman, Bhaktivedanta was instructed by his trainer to carry Krishna Consciousness to the West. After fulfilling loved ones obligations, he took the vows of a sannyasi (a spiritual ascetic who renounces the globe) and moved to the United States. His first converts have been hippies in New York City, who shaved their heads and adopted Indian garments as indicators of membership. They took to the streets to chant and dance (a apply named kirtan) and to airports to promote their teacher’s books. In the procedure, they grew to become one particular of the most obvious symbols of the new spiritual movements in the sixties. The teachings of the Hare Krishna motion are derived from ancient Hindu scriptures, especially the Srinad-Bhagavatum and the Bhagavadgita . Adherents feel that Krishna (an avatar of Vishnu) is the Supreme Lord and that human beings are eternal spiritual beings trapped in a cycle of reincarnation. The mother nature of the cycle for person beings is identified by karma, the law of the effects of past actions, which returns beings to physical existence. In accordance to the movement’s doctrine, it is achievable to modify one’s karma by practicing intense varieties of yoga even so, the Lord has presented an easier technique, the recitation of his holy names, Krishna and Rama. Believers devote their lives to serving Krishna and spend numerous hrs every working day chanting the Hare Krishna mantra. They are vegetarians, and they renounce the use of liquor and medicines. Intercourse is allowed only for procreation inside marriage. Male devotees shave their heads, leaving only a little tuft of hair named a sikha, a sign of surrender to their trainer. Standard character of Hinduism and female believers mark their foreheads with clay as a reminder that their bodies are temples of Krishna. Prior to his death, Bhaktivedanta appointed the Governing Board Commission to information the movement internationally. Incorporated in the fee have been several folks he had designated as lecturers (gurus), and, as the motion expanded, more gurus were named. By the conclude of the nineteen nineties, there were about 225 Hare Krishna centres in 60 nations around the world, including 50 centres in the United States. Although the amount of formally initiated members is only a few thousand, a number of hundred thousand routinely worship at the Hare Krishna temples, including several expatriate Indians. The Hare Krishna motion was between the very first groups to be focused by anticult corporations in the early nineteen seventies. For the duration of the 1980s it was frequently accused of brainwashing, and anticult teams attempted to deprogram some Hare Krishna customers. Professing psychological and psychological damage, a number of former users sued the organization unsuccessfully.

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Tampa

Landmark Industrial Real Estate, has extensive experience in leasing retail, workplace, restaurant and industrial properties. Generators have been around for a long time—windmills and water wheels are early examples. The name comes from the Latin turbo, meaning vortex, and thus the defining property of a turbine is that a fluid or fuel turns the blades of a rotor, which is hooked up to a shaft that may carry out helpful work. The place you do business says quite a bit about your success. Maybe your wholesale firm acquired a second warehouse. Maybe your advert agency just moved to a stylish new office house. Otherwise you might have added further stations at your magnificence salon. This school serves Preschool-6 & Ungraded, and GreatSchools rated it 6 out of 10. 'replaceall' — Delete present plots and reset all axes properties, except Position and Items, to their default values before displaying the new plot. This value is similar to using cla reset earlier than every new plot. Whereas making deliveries in a company van, your worker causes a collision injuring the leadership staff of a know-how start-up. The limits of your commercial auto policy won't cowl their salaries while they recuperate. Default values for properties could also be specified in the properties object using the value field. The worth might both be a primitive worth, or a operate that returns a worth. Ask us for a Threat Management Evaluation. We are going to assessment your operation to determine what the exposures are to threat and supply sound insurance coverage advice as to how you can finest shield you from potential loss.

We're at the moment in a Seller's Market in the present day which means you might avoid paying many typical vendor prices related to promoting your private home. Be sure to get essentially the most for your residence by hiring the suitable Colorado Springs Realtors. Be taught extra about promoting your property quick, for more money by hiring somebody that will put money into selling it for you. Get fashionable advertising that sells your property in 12 days or much less for extra money. Stress free. Verify your agent's and insurance coverage company's licenses.  rightmove property app and insurance companies have to be licensed to sell business property insurance in Texas. An unlicensed insurance coverage company may not meet the state's minimal monetary and regulatory requirements, meaning the company might not be capable of pay your claim. To learn whether an agent or insurance coverage firm is licensed, call TDI's Client Help Line or use the Agent Lookup or Company Lookup features on our web site. Solely showing 500 houses. Zoom in, or use filters to slender your search. Zoom in to see colleges on the map. The Property Appraiser doesn't send tax payments and doesn't set or acquire taxes. Please visit the Tax Collector's web site straight for additional information. In JavaScript, all attributes can be read, but solely the value attribute may be changed (and provided that the property is writable). The modifier can be utilized on var properties declared inside the physique of a category (not within the major constructor, and only when the property does not have a custom getter or setter) and, since Kotlin 1.2, for top-degree properties and local variables. The type of the property or variable have to be non-null, and it must not be a primitive sort. A Pierre Resort duplex, as soon as on the center of an argument involving a late financier, his sons, and a Jordanian princess, is back on the market for $70 million—the identical value it was asking in 2014 , and in 2015 So what's changed? The brokerage agency: Sotheby's Worldwide Realty took over from Brown Harris Stevens earlier this year, however the worth has remained the same for 3 years. The residence spans the 30th and thirty first floors of The Pierre, and comes with 5 bedrooms, 5 bogs, and sweeping 360 degree views of Central Park and the Manhattan skyline. Many important properties invoked in science, like being a easy harmonic oscillator, being a gene, being an edge detector, or being a perception, are often regarded as useful properties. To say that something exemplifies a practical property is, roughly, to say that there are specific properties that it exemplifies and that collectively they allow it to play a sure causal function. For instance, DNA molecules have sure properties that enable them to transmit genetic information in just about the best way described by Mendel's legal guidelines. Here again, we've quantifications over properties that appear unavoidable.

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Product Finder - More Fabrics

more-fabrics

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Tips On Choosing The Right Fabrics For Dressmaking

Dressmaking is definitely an exercise that a entire lot of people enjoy. Fabric is the basic material becoming found in designing a new dress. The Particular easy fabric that is employed in every dress making project when mixed using creative ideas may flip in in order to a glamorous bit of dress. There really are usually a wide assortment of fabrics used for dressmaking today. Each And Also Every sort regarding fabrics will be suited to obtain a particular use. in dressmaking, designs aren't only to become considered but in addition the fabric which should end up being used. in selecting the proper material for the dressmaking project, your own expertise will guide you on choosing the very best material with regard to it. Knowing the type associated with the fabric that you use is however one way to select the very best fabric for each along with every along with every dress. You will find two main classifications involving fabrics, fabrics created from all-natural fibers as well as the other one are usually made from synthetic fibers. In dressmaking, there are elements that an individual simply have to think about inside developing a certain dress. Knowing the spot exactly where the dress is likely to be worn, and some specifications with the individual that will probably be wearing are such factors. These factors may additionally be utilized when choosing the right supplies for your project. Subsequent are the handful of guidelines in selecting the right fabrics for the dressmaking project. Fabrics which are created from natural fibres may become possibly through animals or even vegetables. Such fabrics are usually wool, cotton, silk and also linen. Wool will be produced from head of hair fibers involving animals along with sheeps are generally among one in the most well-known providers regarding wool within the fabric industry. Wool is warm, absorbent as well as wrinkle resistant. Coats and also winter dresses are commonly made from wool. Along With wool really shouldn't be ironed immediately and should become steam pressed using a cloth. Wools could be washed but some may require to be dry cleaned. Wool tends to pull when blended with synthetic fibers. An Additional fabric made from natural fibres is cotton. Cotton is actually recognized to hold the characteristics of durability for it is actually strong and also long wearing. Cottons includes a variety of finishes, textures, and weight and also its possibly woven as well as knitted. Silk is but another sort of material produced from natural fibres involving unwound cocoon in the silk worm. This has the absorbency characteristics and is comfortable silly putty removal to be able to don in heat weather. Since silk is truly a kind regarding fiber that has a low conductivity it keeps heat air near for the skin in the particular course of cold weather. Silk are commonly used in shirts, blouses, dresses, lingerie, pajamas, robes, sun dresses as well as skirt suits. Your last type of fabric that's produced of all-natural fibres is actually linen. Linen is a fabric made from fibres of the fax plant. It can end up being a cool along with absorbent type involving fabric. and usually used for suits, dresses and skirts. Acrylic, Nylon and also Polyester are usually fabrics created from synthetic fibres. Acrylics are generally heat and light excess weight sort regarding fabric. Nylon about another hand can be difficult as well as elastic and within addition moth resistant. Although polyester are usually types of fabrics that dry swiftly and contains the actual wash as well as use characteristics.

However, prior for you to determining to choose about what fabric you are usually most likely to use a person must think about your essential elements in selecting the proper fabric regarding dressmaking. Every type of cloth has its own very own characteristics. You ought to know what characteristics associated with fabrics you need to utilize inside your dressmaking project and there you'll end up being in any position to determine what fabric to utilize be it created from organic or perhaps synthetic fibres. A Person could check out on-line fabric shops for that types of fabrics which you will use, searching on the internet may be convenient as well as effective for you to each dressmaker. By: novemh Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com Check out calicolaine.co.uk for almost all your fabrics and also textile needs. they offer the wide collection associated with substantial top quality fabrics, textiles as well as accessories regardless of whether for the enterprise or to your crafts.

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Real Estate :: What Is Buy To Let?

Buy to Let Mortgages are loans specially designed for anyone who wishes to invest in the property market by buying one or more houses and renting them out to tenants. Buy to Let Mortgages differ from previous investment vehicles by specifically using the rental revenue as the main factor when determining the ability of the buyer to meet the monthly mortgage payments. Many high street banks and building societies now offer a buy to let mortgage product. The percentage which the buy to let lender is willing to lend is likely to be restricted by many lenders to 85% of the value of a property. inventory report london Buying Property _Canterbury_-_geograph.org.uk_-_983532.jpg" width="261" /> Buying property to let has become increasingly popular to the UK investor. Buy To Let mortgage lenders differ in approach. Buy-to-let borrowers do have to jump through some extra hoops to satisfy mortgage lenders. The term of a buy-to-let mortgage is likely to be somewhere in the region of 5 to 45 years. When buying to let it is important to know the market in which you will be trying to let your property. _Consett_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1446497.jpg" width="380" /> Buy To Let Property The more you are willing to do a property up, the higher the potential profits. There is the danger that the property could lie empty for long periods and the market could suffer a downturn. The advantage of a property close by is being able to keep an eye on it, but if you will be employing an agent anyway they should do that for you. One rule of thumb many buy-to-let investors apply is to factor in the property sitting empty for two months of the year this gives a substantial buffer. Finding the right property is key to the success of your long-term strategy. Buy To Let Mortgages Popular perception is that buy-to-let mortgages are hugely expensive and very restrictive. However, the interest rate available on a buy-to-let mortgage is generally not significantly higher than those on standard mortgages. Landlords also have a choice between interest only and repayment mortgages. To begin with, buy to let mortgage lenders do not use the applicants income solely as a basis of approval, instead they base their decision mostly upon the likely rental income that the property will achieve. Over the long term, though, both the capital value of the property and the rental income should go up, making buy-to-let a balanced investment. Usually, regular buy to let lenders will demand the rent to cover at least 125% of the monthly mortgage payments. However some specialist lenders are more relaxed and may only require 100% full coverage. Buy to Let mortgages are not regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Although buy to let property can make sound investment you must do your homework before you begin. http://www.articlebiz.com/article/64436-1-what-is-buy-to-let/

[nicholasswinford095-blog]

Back to basics: During the recent housing boom, many Americans made unwise financial decisions that boosted demand for mortgages to new heights. Until memories of this nightmare fade, consumers will get back to the basics of using mortgages simply to buy homes. Mortgage bankers, too, must get back to the basics of finding business in markets with the right balance of opportunity and risk.

In the early 1990s, the end of the Cold War ironically brought economic hardship to Southern California, home to the big defense contractors whose workers built the fighter planes and ships that bankrupted the old Soviet Union. The defense industry had boosted the California economy for decades, and had buoyed the local housing industry. But during the early nineties, defense success gave way to local recession as Pentagon orders receded, airplane production plummeted, and tens of thousands of engineers and machinists found themselves out of work. * Seeing no future in an area overrun with other unemployed engineers, many of these Californians left for nearby spots such as Seattle; Portland Oregon; Boise, Idaho; Phoenix; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Salt Lake City. In two years, more than 1 million people left California. As they left, they sold their homes--some of the most expensive homes in the United States. Over the previous decade, home prices in Southern California had doubled. * When these economic refugees arrived in their newly adopted cities, they were pleasantly surprised. Armed with the equity from selling their California homes, they could buy an even better home and still have money left over for a new car, a boat, furniture--the works. Home prices in Seattle were only 60 percent of what they had been in Los Angeles; in Phoenix they were just 40 percent; and in Salt Lake City, only 30 percent.* This was the first wave of Americans who, quite by accident, were able to turn homeownership--until then considered an expensive necessity--into a financial bonanza. [ILLUSTRATION OMITTED] A rising tide lifts all boats Home prices rise in a local market if there is a sudden increase in demand--whether from Japanese investors in Hawaii; pipeline workers in Anchorage, Alaska; financial managers in New York; software engineers in Austin, Texas; or dot-com millionaires in San Francisco. Americans are a highly mobile lot, and will easily move wherever job opportunities present themselves--as the California Defense industry workers demonstrated. A doubling of home prices, as in Southern California, had been seen before in Texas, Hawaii and the Northeast. These booms--invariably followed by a bust--were isolated phenomena, however, directly linked to the economic prosperity of individual markets. Other homeowners could only look on with envy at annual price increases in the double-digits. But the rise in home prices that began in the late 1990s and crested in 2006 was quite different. Though stronger in some places than others, it included most major markets in the United States. Between 2000 and 2006, 66 percent of American homeowners saw the value of their home increase by at least one-third and 35 percent saw that value more than double (see Figure 1). Figure 1 Home-Price Increases, 2000-2006 City Percent Atlanta, GA 31% Baltimore, MD 110% Boston, MA 68% Charlotte, NC 28% Chicago, IL 58% Denver, CO 26% Detroit, Ml 16% Houston, TX 33% Las Vegas, NV 118% Los Angeles, CA 158% Miami, FL 164% Minneapolis, MN 57% New York, NY 97% Philadelphia, PA 84% Phoenix, AZ 112% Sacramento, CA 122% Seattle, WA 72% St. Louis, MO 43% Washington, DC 128% National Average 59% SOURCE: FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY (FHFA) HOME PRICE INDEX Not everyone participated in the price boom, because some local markets always face economic difficulties. Many smaller markets, in particular, lost jobs and population during that period. This unusual economic phenomenon--a general rise in home prices without a sharp increase in inflation--flowed from a number of factors, _Nonsuch_Park_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1733012.jpg/640px-Surrey including policy decisions by the Federal Reserve to encourage low interest rates, low inflation due to cheap imports from China, efforts by the government to expand homeownership and demand from investors for securities with higher returns. Low inflation allowed the Fed to keep interest rates low. Low interest rates made mortgages affordable to a larger segment of the population. Low interest rates increased demand for investments with higher returns. Demand from Wall Street expands mortgage lending The desire for higher investment returns, initially from institutional investors such as pension funds that have long-term obligations, brought a new source of funding to the housing industry and skewed the economics of mortgage lending. Subprime mortgages had until somewhat recently been a high-risk specialty product, but Wall Street magically turned them into a seemingly low risk security with high returns, and investor demand exploded. Not only pension funds, but banks and hedge funds--and the Wall Street firms themselves--found the returns on these securities irresistible. Any pool of mortgages can be structured into tranches, some of which have high yields. But pools of mortgages with many high-risk loans provide, a much larger volume of the high yield tranches. Demand from Wall Street for high risk mortgages brought many new buyers into the home market, and coincidentally lowered underwriting standards for all mortgages. The outstanding amount of Wall Street-sponsored mortgage pools jumped from $400 billion in 2000 to $3 trillion in 2007, according to the Federal Reserve (see Figure 2). Figure 2 Mortgage Debt in Private Pools Year Debt ($ trillions) 2007 $3.0 2006 $2.8 2005 $2.1 2004 $1.5 2003 $0.6 2002 $0.5 2001 $0.4 2000 $0.4 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE Whether due to government policies or Wall Street demand for riskier mortgages, the number of people able to buy a home expanded rapidly in the last decade. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate increased from 64 percent in the mid-1990s to 69 percent in 2006--about 6 million extra homes (and mortgages). Homeowners speculate in real estate The new demand for homes since 2000 reinforced local housing shortages that naturally arise in a mobile society when the economy is expanding, and pushed up home prices in many local markets. At the same time, many individuals who had witnessed the dot-com stock market crash in 2001 pulled their money out of stocks and, with interest rates low, looked for alternative investments. Real estate seemed like a good buy. With the high leverage supplied by a mortgage with a low interest rate, investors needed only a small increase in home prices to get a huge return, and prices had risen steadily for years. While few Americans consider themselves speculators, many were willing to invest in real estate in the guise of buying a vacation home, an eventual retirement home or a time-share condo. In many vacation markets, almost half of all home purchases in recent years were due to such soft speculation (see Figure 3). Figure 3 Percentage of Home Purchases Made by Investors (2005) City Percent Myrtle Beach, SC 64% Panama City, FL 47% Naples, FL 46% Wilmington, NC 41% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 41% Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 40% Vero Beach, FL 40% Orlando, FL 29% Boise, ID 28% Las Vegas, NV 27% Atlantic City, NJ 27% Charleston, SC 26% Phoenix, AZ 26% Honolulu, HI 25% Albuquerque, NM 22% Austin, TX 20% SOURCES: HOME MORTGAGE DISCLOSURE ACT (HMDA) DATA, FEDERAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS EXAMINATION COUNCIL (FFIEC) Your house as a cash machine With the forces of government policy, Wall Street demand, an expanding economy and genteel real estate speculation all aligned on one side of the equation, it's not surprising that home prices rose year after year in all but the most economically depressed areas. The result was that the majority Americans saw a large increase in the apparent value of their home. Although only the very small percent that actually sold their home were able to achieve that gain, everyone else thought the value of their home had increased by a similar amount. And so did their bankers. And they now had a simple way to tap that value with out moving to a cheaper market, as the California defense workers had been forced to do: They got a home-equity loan or refinanced their home with a larger mortgage and took out the difference in cash. According to the Federal Reserve, mortgage debt on single-family homes increased from $5 trillion in 2000 to about $11 trillion in 2007 (see Figure 4), and about $3 billion of this increase was due to home-equity loans and cash-out refinancings. Figure 4 Single-Family Mortgage Debt Year Debt ($ trillions) 2007 $11.1 2006 $10.4 2005 $9.4 2004 $8.2 2003 $7.2 2002 $6.4 2001 $5.6 2000 $5.1 SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE Fragility of home pricing Like prices for many commodities and financial investments, current prices for homes are set by the most recent buyers and sellers--of whom there are surprisingly few. In a typical year, only about 5 percent of the homes in a market are sold, which means that at any one time only about 1 percent of homes are actually on the market. Whether those homes are sold for a higher or lower price determines the value of the other 99 percent. Relatively small changes in the local economic situation also can have an outsized effect on home prices. In a typical housing market with average population growth of 1 percent per year, home builders can match the demand for new homes fairly easily. But when an influx of new jobs pushes annual population growth up to just 2 percent, demand exceeds the ability of home builders to increase the supply quickly enough and home prices rise rapidly. A brief price history of the bust Homeowners took money out of their homes and bankers of all stripes let them do it, because of the hope on all sides that home prices would continue to go up (but in any case would not go down). The fragility of home pricing works both ways, however, so it didn't require much of a slowing of demand for prices to stop their quick rise and begin a long descent. The fact that real estate markets are local is emphasized by the very scattered way in which the home-price boom came to an end. First to peak were markets that had not seen much of an increase in home prices since 2000, mainly because of fundamental problems with the local economy. Ann Arbor, Michigan, was the first market to peak, in the second quarter of 2005, followed in the next quarter by Detroit, Cleveland and other markets in Michigan and Ohio. The fourth quarter of 2005 was the peak for three of the California markets that had seen the biggest boom--Santa Barbara, Sacramento and Salinas, where home prices had more than doubled. The first quarter of 2006 was the peak for more California markets, including Modesto, San Diego and Santa Rosa. It was also the peak for the first Florida boom markets--Melbourne and Vero Beach. And it was the end of the boom for Reno and Carson City, Nevada. The second and third quarters of 2006 were the peak for large numbers of markets in Florida and California, including Fort Myers, Bradenton, Naples, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach in Florida; and Anaheim, San Jose, San Francisco and Riverside-San Bernardino in California. The fourth quarter of 2006 saw the end of the boom for Los Angeles and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida; and the spread of the end to other parts of the country, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and Washington, D.C. It wasn't until the first quarter of 2007 that the end hit in Chicago, the New York City area and other parts of the Northeast; not until the second quarter that Miami, the last big boom market, hit its peak; not until the fourth quarter of 2007 that Seattle, Portland and other parts of the Northwest were affected; and not until the first quarter of 2008 that the recession brought about a general end to price increases in the rest of the country. Short-term problems for mortgage bankers Mortgage bankers face two problems in the near term--finding new business and determining the risk of new business. Both problems are related to home prices, because demand for mortgages is weak in markets where home prices are still falling--that's why they're still falling--and because the risk that homeowners will default on their mortgage increases if home prices fall after a mortgage is written. The Local Market Monitor forecasts home prices in 315 markets and currently doesn't see a national trend toward price recovery. Prices are rising modestly in some markets, but will continue to fall in others. Generally, the markets that had the greatest boom in prices have also had the greatest bust, and in a number of these markets prices will continue to fall for several years (see Figures 5 and 6). Figure 5 Home-Price Changes to Maximum Value (2000-2009) Metro Area Boom Bust Miami, FL 160% -30% Madera, CA 153% -30% Bakersfield, CA 151% -35% Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 150% -39% Fresno, CA 148% -32% Naples, FL 147% -39% Los Angeles, CA 146% -25% Fort Lauderdale, FL 146% -33% West Palm Beach, FL 141% -32% Port St. Lucie, FL 139% -40% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 137% -41% Yuba City, CA 137% -39% Merced, CA 134% -56% Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL 131% -31% Modesto, CA 131% -48% Santa Ana-Anaheim, CA 130% -26% SOURCE: FHFA HOME PRICE INDEX Figure 6 Home-Price Forecast (Q3 2009-Q3 2010) City Percent Atlanta, GA -6% Baltimore, MD -7% Boston, MA -3% Charlotte, NC -4% Chicago, IL -7% Denver, CO -2% Detroit, Ml -9% Houston, TX 0% Las Vegas, NV -16% Los Angeles, CA -4% Miami, FL -16% Minneapolis, MN -4% New York, NY -5% Philadelphia, PA -4% Phoenix, AZ -17% Sacramento, CA -7% Seattle, WA -9% St. Louis, MO -2% Washington, DC -1% National Average -5% SOURCE: LOCAL MARKET MONITOR Even after prices stabilize, however, demand in many markets will never be close to its former volume, because the former volume was driven by second-home buying and speculation that have been wiped out for the next decade. Many smaller markets in California and, especially, in Florida, fall into this category of disappearing volume. But even large markets such as Las Vegas and Phoenix are not immune from the problem. Although home prices have fallen substantially in many markets, the risk that prices will fall another 20 percent or more is fairly high in some places. How much further prices will fall varies from market to market, and depends on how high prices still are above a sustainable level we call the Equilibrium Home Price. In some markets, such as Los Angeles and Modesto, California, home prices exceeded the Equilibrium Home Price by more than 100 percent at the height of the boom. So, even though prices have already dropped 25 percent in Los Angeles and 48 percent in Modesto, further price declines are almost certain. On the other hand, prices in markets such as Minneapolis and Denver are now close to the Equilibrium Home Price, so we don't expect much more of a decline (see Figure 7). Figure 7 Excess of Current Home Price Over Equilibrium Price Metro Area Percent Atlanta, GA 19% Baltimore, MD 27% Boston, MA 27% Charlotte, NC 10% Chicago, IL 6% Denver, CO 11% Detroit, Ml 6% Houston, TX -1% Las Vegas, NV -18% Los Angeles, CA 39% Miami, FL 28% Minneapolis, MN 15% New York, NY 32% Philadelphia, PA 18% Phoenix, AZ 14% Sacramento, CA 13% Seattle, WA 11% St. Louis, MO 9% Washington, DC 29% SOURCE: LOCAL MARKET MONITOR A market growth strategy for mortgage bankers inventory companies london For the next decade, until memories of the bust finally fade, consumers will get back to basics about homes and mortgages--and mortgage bankers should do the same. Rather than finding mortgage business just about everywhere, they will mainly find business in markets with growing populations and growing economies. They will find the least risk in markets where home prices will increase at a moderate level. And they will be able to assess market risk by monitoring how far home prices are above the Equilibrium Home Price. Population growth is difficult to measure and can change rapidly, but a fair approximation is given by job growth. Right now the job situation is grim throughout much of the country, and some markets such as Las Vegas will not jump back to high levels of growth when the recession is over. As always, there will be winners and losers, with some markets faring better or worse as the economy redistributes job opportunities. Markets in Michigan and Ohio linked to the auto industry, for example, will probably have job losses and population stagnation for some years to come, while auto-related markets in the South will grow. Markets that will have the most difficulty emerging from the recession are likely to be those that formerly had high growth but have lost large numbers of jobs, often in construction. This unfavorable swing has been greatest in markets such as Prescott, Arizona; Boise, Idaho; Phoenix; Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Naples, Florida; Las Vegas; and Charlotte, North Carolina (see Figure 8). Figure 8 Growth Markets Unlikely to Recover Quickly (Job Growth in Prior 12 Months) Market July 2006 July 2009 Change Prescott, AZ 7.3% -8.9% -16% Boise, ID 7.0% -7.4% -14% Phoenix, AZ 5.2% -7.8% -13% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 4.6% -7.8% -12% Las Vegas, NV 5.2% -6.6% -12% Naples, FL 5.1% -6.4% -11% Provo, UT 6.2% -4.8% -11% Charlotte, NC 4.5% -6.2% -11% Portland, OR 3.3% -5.8% -9% Orlando, FL 3.4% -5.6% -9% Raleigh, NC 5.1% -3.7% -9% Salt Lake City, UT 4.4% -4.2% -9% SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS On the other hand, markets likely to recover best and experience good population growth are those that had moderate growth before the recession and saw only a moderate drop in jobs. These include the Austin, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Dallas markets in Texas; but also

Little Rock, Arkansas; Tallahassee, Florida; and Chattanooga, Tennessee (see Figure 9). Figure 9 Markets with Good Growth Prospects (Job Growth in Prior 12 Months) Market July 2006 July 2009 Change Lafayette, IN 2.2% 0.8% -1% Des Moines, IA 2.3% -0.9% -3% Fayetteville, AR 2.8% -0.5% -3% Little Rock, AR 2.3% -1.6% -4% Austin, TX 3.7% -0.2% -4% Fort Worth, TX 2.9% -1.4% -4% San Antonio, TX 3.7% -0.8% -5% Dallas, TX 3.0% -1.6% -5% Tallahassee, FL 2.4% -2.7% -5% Richmond, VA 2.0% -3.4% -5% Chattanooga, TN 2.3% -3.1% -5% Tacoma, WA 2.9% -2.7% -6% SOURCE: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS For the next few years, home prices will provide the best indication of where mortgage business will be growing best. In markets with renewed job growth, new jobs will initially go to workers who already live there and don't need new homes. But the behavior of home prices will signal where demand for new housing--and therefore new mortgages--is strongest. We're still in a holding pattern, waiting for clear evidence that individual markets have bottomed out. By next year, I expect to see stronger prices in dozens of markets. In both the short and longer term, as distortions of supply and demand get worked out and then reappear in some markets, the level of home prices compared with the Equilibrium Home Price will give the best indication of the risk that prices will fall again in some future boom and bust. Above all, in this very difficult period as the recession and its aftermath reshape local economies, mortgage bankers must stick to the basics to find those markets where future demand will be strongest. Ingo Winzer is president and founder of Local Market Monitor Inc., Cary. North Carolina, a leading real estate forecasting solution. Local Market Monitor equips mortgage investors, banks, home builders and insurance companies with an independent risk and investment perspective. Winzer has more than 20 years of expertise in analyzing real estate trends. He can be reached at info@localmarketmonitor.com. For more information. visit www.localmarketmonitor.com. https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Backtobasics:Duringtherecenthousingboom,manyAmericansmade...-a0211021230