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[nunquamidem]

Denechamps 10th Anniversary Draft Analysis: Yahoo Sucks Edition

Intro:

Alright, assholes. As Devin so eloquently stated in Vegas, the message boards have gone to shit. I'm not sure if it's because we all talk via group text, use the in-app messenger, or what, but we gotta get back to our roots.

For me, that means comprehensive analysis of everything, as long as it makes me look good. Fortunately, y'all made it easy to kick things off with your collective shit-ass drafting skills.

Zach got so high he fell into a deep sleep and dreamed about drafting a decent team, Devin managed to sober draft his way to the 3rd worst team in the league, Pat ordered a $200 bottle of Tito's to pair with his league-leading 8 steals in the draft, and I reached on Shady with the 3rd overall pick and still managed to put together a better team than all of you.

Enough exposition - let's get into it!

You All Have Low-T:

No, I'm not talking about the type of "Low-T" that's got Chris popping Viagra and snorting powdered deer penis like it's a line of coke at a frat party - I'm talking about the revolutionary new scoring system I developed to showcase how good I am.

"Let me guess - your dumb shit new score says you had the best draft?"

You're goddamn right it did.

"Alright, I'll bite. What is it and why did you make that corny ass dad joke about Low-T?"

Ah, yeah! Well, it's called the "T-Score", because of course I named it after myself.

How does it work? Well, it's an aggregate grade based on a number of factors and data sources. I used FantasyPros ECR (which in itself is an aggregate grade of the 25 top fantasy experts in 2016), Yahoo's "Draft Report Card" grade converted into a number grade, and FootballGuys' draft analysis combined with Pat's pre-draft survey. The last one there is actually really interesting, but I'll get into greater detail on that in a sec.

"Okay, wow, don't care. Just show me the scores."

Ask and you shall receive:

“What are the boxes around the “FFG” scores?”

Well, that’s where I used Pat’s survey data and integrated it with FootballGuys’ post-draft playoff probabilities. Everyone graded themselves and the rest of the league on their perceived talent and fantasy football savvy. I took the “Skill” and “Rank” grades, combined them into a single “Grade”, and divided them into tiers based on 1/3 percentiles. Here’s what that all looked like:

On the right, you’ll see the final combined “Grade” along with clear demarcations for each tier.

“You’re losing me. What does any of this have to do with anything?”

When you input a team into FootballGuys’ draft analyzer, they spit out a calculation of how likely you are to make the playoffs with said team. This is calculated using our league settings and their own proprietary algorithmic magic, and is presented in three talent tiers: Great in-season management, Good in-season management, and Average in-season management. Hence the tiers! I haven’t been able to do the math because the league record book isn’t up and running yet, but I’d venture to guess the tiers derived from Pat’s survey would line up pretty well with everyone’s individual records over the past few years. Isn’t it neat when data backs up reality?

Anyway, let’s get to the team-by-team breakdown. I’ll be presenting all the data I aggregated for each team in order of “T-Score”, so you might as well scroll right by #1, cause it ain’t you.

Team Breakdowns:

#1 Theo:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

FLEX (1st)

RB2 (1st)

QB (2nd)

Weaknesses:

WR1 (9th)

WR2 (9th)

Notes:

In spite of having dogshit, bottom-of-the-barrel wide receivers, I still managed to draft the best overall team in the league. Plenty of RB depth - perhaps even too much - will hopefully mitigate my garbage-tier WRs and lack of depth at the position. 

And just think - what happens if AP goes down? Mark Ingram is RB1. And if Gillislee takes over Blount’s roll in NE, as a 10th round pick? Hot damn!

With the best starters in the league and the 4th best bench, expectations are high.

#2 Mikey:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

WR1 (1st)

K (1st)

DST (2nd)

Weaknesses:

FLEX (9th)

RB1 (7th)

WR2 (7th)

Notes:

Mikey did well to draft a team whose starters will all likely churn out steady points week in and week out. Brown is a sure thing (even if he scares me), Zeke plays behind a super-good offensive line (when he’s not on the couch serving his suspension or assaulting women), and Gore is a guaranteed 3-4 points per week. I his team struggling out the gate without Zeke, though, because I don’t see a ton big-play potential on the team outside of AB. Maybe Demarco?

#3 Pat:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

WR1 (2nd)

K (2nd)

Flex (3rd)

Weaknesses:

RB1 (9th)

QB (6th)

DST (6th)

Notes:

In strikingly non-Pat fashion, this team is lacking at RB. Ever the fan of Gurley (#9 RB1 based on ECR), this team really strikes me as boom-or-bust. Luck is a huge question mark with his injury, who knows who will be throwing to Nuk (and if he’ll get back to ‘15 fantasy relevance), and Gurley and Hyde are hardly sure things. A solid bench should buoy any regression or injuries, but a deep bench can be torture when you’re trying to decide who to start at FLEX.

#4 Dustin:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

WR2 (3rd)

WR1 (4th)

RB1 (4th)

Weaknesses:

DST (9th)

K (8th)

RB2 (7th)

Notes:

Dustin's team is a mystery. I really like Freeman at RB1, but as a Ty Montgomery holder last year, I'm not sure how much I trust him at RB2. Jordan Reed is guaranteed to spend some time injured, Baldwin's ceiling is inexorably tied to how well the 'Hawks o-line plays, and A.J. Green has to slow down at some point... right? CMac, Maclin, and Parker could help down the stretch, but there will be a lot of questions until the season starts rolling.

#5 Chris:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

TE (2nd)

WR1 (3rd)

RB2 (5th)

Weaknesses:

QB (10th)

K (9th)

WR2 (8th)

Notes:

I don't trust Howard, Mixon is a rookie playing behind a subpar o-line with TD-vulture-extraordinaire Jeremy Hill looming, Watkins is a tackle or two away from shattering his everything, and none of the bench guys here really catch my eye. I could be wrong, but outside of OBJ and Kelce I don't see a lot going on, and the latter isn’t really a sure thing himself. Chris knows how to make moves, though, so I anticipate a different - stronger - team once the season gets underway.

#6 Ashley:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

TE (1st)

DST (1st)

RB1 (2nd)

Weaknesses:

RB2 (9th)

QB (8th)

WR1 (8th)

Notes:

To absolutely nobody’s surprise, Ash took Gronk. Assuming he stays healthy, it’ll add some much needed firepower (and more TD’s for me through Brady) to her team. Outside of Gronk and Bell, there really isn’t a whole lot going on. KC DST is ranked #1 by FPros ECR and Crosby #3, which is nice, but streaming has made drafted kickers and defenses borderline obsolete. I don't trust Abdullah, Alshon, or Fitzgerald (because of RB competition, QB/injury, and age respectively), and T.Y. Hilton is only good if Luck stays healthy. A single injury could completely derail this team.

#7 Shoob:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

QB (1st) FLEX (2nd) RB1 (5th)

Weaknesses:

TE (10th) RB2 (8th) DST (8th)

Notes:

FootballGuys’ straight up loved Shoob’s team, while FantasyPros and Yahoo thought it was butts. Just goes to show you why it’s imperative to pull from multiple data sources! I, personally, see some cause for concern. Rodgers is great, but has had rough starts to the year the past couple seasons. His WRs are also a cause for concern: Jordy is getting older, I see a regression to the mean for Cobb and don’t know if I trust Adams - even if he’s on my team. Ajayi could be huge, but he could also cake his pants - 22% of his yards came on six 30-plus yard carries, which is a stat I chalk up to luck moreso than talent. Ware is nursing injuries and has to fend off Hunt coming for his touches. Who’s throwing to DT? Will Thomas step up as a true WR1 now that Cooks has departed to NE? Speaking of Cooks (a pick I loved, by the way), will he pay dividends in Bellichick’s system? Lots of question marks, but I’m inclined to side more with FootballGuys’ analysis than Yahoo and FantasyPros on this team.

#8 Jeremy:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

WR2 (1st)

DST (2nd)

QB (5th)

Weaknesses:

RB1 (10th)

TE (7th)

RB2 (6th)

Notes:

Another team that FootballGuys’ loved and FantasyPros/Yahoo hated. Pat’s survey placed Jeremy in the bottom tier of managers in the league, though, which gave Jeremy the 75% figure rather than the 90% he’d have secured with a higher survey grade. That  knocked him down from the #6 T-Score to #8. I personally don't trust Jeremy's team at all. I don't trust Wilson (notes from my draft board: o-line sucks, won't sit in the pocket and deliver, prefers to roll out but has taken a beating - due for an injury?), Lynch is old, Cook is a rookie who will compete with Murray (edge: experience) and McKinnon (edge: physicality / goal-line vulture), Jordy is a RZ target maven but is getting up there in age and injuries are a concern, Pryor is still learning WR, Texans DST is going to disappoint with their now patchwork secondary, and there's not much startable help on the bench. Lots of upside pieces on this team, but I get the feeling that everything has to go right for ol' Jer-bear to sniff the postseason.

#9 Devin:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

RB2 (2nd)

WR2 (2nd)

QB (7th)

Weaknesses:

RB1 (8th)

TE (8th)

FLEX (8th)

Notes:

Devin really put together a mixed bag here..

Panthers don't want Cam to run, but Cam is good at running. Hope and pray that Benjamin dad-dicks the league the way he did JJo last preaseaon game, or you're in for disappointment. Fournette is a rookie on a team that's going to be playing from behind a lot with an average o-line, but he has an easy schedule and little competition. I haaaaaaaaaaaaated the Lamar Miller pick - Texans' line is in-flux at best/garbage at worst, and BoB wants to work Foreman and Blue into the gameplan more. Dez was a reach. Cooper is solid if he can get his TDs up. AP is old and probably won't account for more than 60% of NO's carries (assuming he stays healthy). Everything else is just... varying levels of "meh"

#10 Zach:

FantasyPros ECR:

FootballGuys’ Playoff Odds:

Strengths:

RB1 (1st)

Weaknesses:

RB2 (10th) WR1 (10th) WR2 (10th)

Notes:

Yeesh.

Let’s all take a second to appreciate that David Johnson ended up on what is essentially a non-competing team.

Zach. Buddy. The weed, liquor, and pursuit of poon that came with the Vegas draft really did a number to your team.

Let me list out the players you reached on (i.e., drafted 2+ rounds before their ADP, according to FantasyPros ECR):

Kelvin Benjamin (#96) Tyreek Hill (#82) Brandon Marshall (#104) Eli Manning (#107) Derrick Henry (#84) Zach Ertz (#98) Randall Cobb (#130) Sebastian Janikowski (#231) Jamaal Charles (#124) Kevin White (#162) Antonio Gates (#186)

Again, yeesh.

Et cetera:

Curious to see how everybody voted in Pat’s poll? Be curious no more! I had to guess who submitted what, so it might not be perfect, but there are only a couple that were in question.

Interesting anomalies:

Skill

The only people who believe Devin to be anything bordering on competent are Zach, Jeremy, and Devin himself.

Devin, Chris, and Zach think considerably less about Pat’s skill level than the rest of the league.

The only person go give me a sub-5 grade? None other than the reigning Sacko himself, Devin!

Devin and Mikey have much higher opinions of Jeremy than the rest of the league.

Ashley was the only person to receive no “Skill” grades over 5 from her peers.

Mikey, Jeremy, and Shoob were the kindest voters.

Dustin, Chris, and Ashley were the most critical voters.

Team Name commonalities:

Conclusion:

That’s it! This took way longer than I had planned, but here we are. Now go forth and post dumb shit on the message board!

[nunquamidem]

The Refreshinator

So I got a little bored today, and decided to do some experimenting in the kitchen. What I ended up with was actually surprisingly good! Oh well, here's the recipe-

Ingredients:

2 1/2 oz. Gin (i.e. 1 2/3 shot)

1/3 oz. Lime juice

1/3 oz. Lemon juice

1/2 oz. Sugar (superfine, white)

1 oz. Heavy cream (strained)

1 Egg white

~7 drops Vanilla extract 

~1 1/2 oz. Tonic

Pour the ingredients into your shaker in the following order: sugar, lime juice, lemon juice, gin, heavy cream, egg white (you can substitute the raw egg white for powdered egg whites if you so prefer, but the chance of contracting Salmonella from a raw egg is extremely small), and vanilla extract. Shake the mixture for two minutes. Stop and add some crushed ice (add enough to almost fill your shaker). Resume shaking for at least 3 minutes. After you're finished shaking, pour the drink out (leaving out the ice) into a chilled glass. Raise the shaker as you're pouring the last little bit to form a nice 1/2" head of froth. Garnish the side of the glass with a lime slice and enjoy! Double the ingredients and add a little more sugar if you want a refreshing drink that'll leave you with a nice buzz once you're finished.

Notes:

The list of ingredients may seem strange at first, but trust me- the end result is fantastic. The cream gives the drink a thicker consistency without effecting the desired flavor, and the egg white gives the drink a foamy, light mouthfeel and allow the formation of a frothy, thick head. I got the idea from a few different mixed drinks, and added a few special touches. The first time I made it I used 1/2 oz. of lemon and lime juice and only 3 drops of vanilla extract. That came out very citrus-y and acidic- not good. The next time around I dropped the juices down to 1/4 oz. to compensate for the fact that I was using Seagrams Lime Bite gin. If you use Bombay Sapphire or Beefeater, 1/3 oz. should be plenty. The more vanilla you use, the more mellow the drink will be. If you don't add enough vanilla, you'll know- the drink will have a very strong lemon scent. Ideally, the drink will smell essentially neutral with a slight hint of citrus. You can add up to another 1/2 oz. of gin and still maintain the smooth, refreshing taste. Any more and the taste of alcohol becomes overwhelming. This isn't something I'd drink to get drunk- it takes quite a bit of time and effort to make it right. It's a great refreshing drink that'll give you a little buzz. It'd definitely be great on a hot summer day!

Oh, here's what the end result looks like-

Enjoy :)