play-your-position-blog

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Early Season Results are Perfect for the Leafs

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In a game between two oft-projected bottom dwellers on Monday Night, the Toronto Maple Leafs continued to lose in impressive fashion.

Given their play in recent seasons and their low expectations entering the year, that may seem like a shot at Mike Babcock’s new team, but it’s not. The Leafs have lost all but one game this season, yet they continue to show significant improvement in their quality of play.

On Monday night, they lost to the Arizona Coyotes 4-3, outshooting their opponents 27-24 and carrying play at 53.7% Score-Adjusted Corsi-For (Stats via. Hockeystats.ca).

This has become a theme for this season’s Leafs, as their underlying numbers have improved across the board, yet they continue to lose. Whichever advanced stat you chose, they’re among the top teams in the league – 4th in raw CF% (waronice.com), 7th in SACF% (puckon.net) and 6th in xG% (@DTMAboutHeart). Yet in the standings that count, they remain in the bottom, tied for third last.

The Leafs have arrived at their expected spot in the standings in a totally unexpected manner.

Over the past two seasons, the Leafs have been held the second worst CF% in the league and the fourth lowest point total. Their place in the standings may have been even lower if not for their high PDO, which was 7th in the league over that span. As can often be the case for under performing teams with strong underlying numbers, their PDO is also a strong influence on their record this season, just not in the way Leafs fans are used to.

In (only) 8 games this season, the Leafs have their lowest shooting percentage since 2006-07 and their lowest save percentage since before James Reimer or Johnathan Bernier arrived.

For Leafs fans, this is hardly a bad thing. The team is in the middle of a rebuild and getting to watch competitive hockey while not hurting their draft position is a welcome sight. It’s just not what was expected.

Many thought that the departure of leading scorer, Phil Kessel, would hurt the Leafs, but aside from their struggles in net, shooting percentage is the only stat that’s taken a hit.

In most other facets of the game, the Leafs have improved. In comparison to the last two seasons, they are generating significantly more unblocked shot attempts at even strength and on the power play, while they are allowing less unblocked shot attempts against at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Early results are suggesting that the Leafs’ additions (including their coach) have outweighed any subtractions that were made and it should mean optimism for fans.

The change in structure is immediately evident for a team that has been accused of “not caring” year after year. With a foundation in place and one of the most talented prospect pools in the game, there are better days on the horizon for the Leafs, and they may come sooner than expected.

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Michael Grabner’s a Leaf, but for How Long?

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By the end of the 2015-16 the Toronto Maple Leafs will have every pick in the 2016 NHL entry draft.

Well, they might come pretty close. This morning, the Leafs traded Taylor Beck, Carter Verhaeghe, Matt Finn, Tom Nilsson and Christopher Gibson to the New York Islanders in exchange for Michael Grabner.

The Leafs seem to be focused on acquiring a large quantity of draft picks and this move fits well with that. Grabner only has one year left on his contract and given more ice-time, he could be a valuable asset at the deadline. Add that to the fact that the Leafs were over their contract limit already, four contracts out the door free up some room to make more moves.

Before acquiring Grabner, the Leafs signed multiple players with upside to one-year contracts, likely with the intention of dumping them for assets at the dealing. They did the same thing last season and it worked well with Daniel Winnik, Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli.

It appears they’re doubling down on that strategy.

They’ve already signed P.A. Parenteau, Matt Hunwick, Mark Arcobello and Shawn Matthias to one-year deals and have traded for Nick Spaling, Taylor Beck (now dealt) and now Grabner, who are all signed until the end of the season. Now that they’ve freed space for more contracts, more signings could be coming. The Leafs currently have 3 players that fit the mould on PTOs: Brad Boyes, Devin Setoguchi and Curtis Glencross. If any of them make the team it will likely be on a one-year contract with the intention of flipping them for picks.

That is, if they can fit them anywhere.

By improving their NHL and prospect depth, the Leafs new strategy has created log-jams in their system at both the AHL and NHL level.

With the new influx of young talent at the AHL level, the five players dealt weren’t likely to get the ice time they deserve, so the AHL lineup has received some clarity. Can we expect a similar shake up at the NHL level? Including the players on PTOs there are 17 NHL quality forwards and 8 NHL quality defensemen (If you count T.J. Brennan, because he deserves a shot) in competition for an opening day roster spot.

Some of the PTOs won’t work out and there will be injuries over the course of the season, but unless a trade involving some of the Leafs’ NHL players transpires, there will be an excess of slightly above average NHL players on Leafs. There’s no real downside to that, but the return on their investment could vary based on how they handle it.

With proper management, players like Grabner could turn a pretty penny and help the Leafs top last years’ five draft picks in the first three rounds.

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Danny Valencia’s

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Danny Valencia is no longer a Toronto Blue Jay and while fans mourn the loss of his personality, the Oakland Atheltics will be benefiting from his bat.

As reported by Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the Blue Jays had originally intended to have Danny Valencia and Ben Revere split time in left field, but John Gibbons chose to play Revere every day. With that decision made, the Blue Jays chose between Colabello and Valencia, and we know how that ended.

With Valencia, Ezequiel Carrera and Ryan Tepera leaving the big league club, Mark Lowe and Ben Revere were activated and Munenori Kawasaki was called up.

The two newcomers, Lowe and Revere, offered some upgrades to their position but the decision that stands out is Kawasaki.

Kawasaki was called up to have another middle infielder on the team after Devon Travis went on the disabled list and Ryan Goins took over second base. Danny Valencia could potentially play second over Goins, but clearly, the Blue Jays didn’t think so.

Another theory is that the Blue Jays felt they needed defence more than they need a bat, much like in their decision to play Revere every day.

We could argue about Valencia’s WAR versus Goins’, that winning 7-5 or 3-1 is no different or anything other Goins-bashing information but that’s simply not what it came down to. It was either Valencia or Colabello.

So, is Colabello a more valuable asset than Valencia?

We’ll knock defense out first because it’s the easy one. Valencia is better than Colabello on defense by basically every metric in every position and he plays more positions (including 42.2 innings at second base).

Now, on to the hitting.

When looking at the length of their careers, Colabello has a superior wRC+, but one clear split is their splits. Colabello hits right handed pitching slightly better than left and Valencia hits left significantly better than right.

Just looking at this season though, Valencia’s splits have evened out almost identically (133 wRC+ vs. RHP, 122 wRC+ vs. LHP), and he’s even been slightly better than Colabello against righties this year (130 wRC+ vs. RHP, 151 wRC+ vs. LHP).

Still, considering Colabello’s better numbers overall, their career splits and that the Blue Jays need at least one person who’s better against righties than lefties, it seems Colabello may have been the right choice.

But just for fun, we’re going to explore one more thing.

This season, the MLB has unveiled their advanced tracking system “Statcast”. For hitters, it tracks the exit velocity of the ball off the bat, where the ball landed and other technology and stuff. I will only discuss the first two because they are the most accessible information from the data thus far.

According to BaseballSavant.com, Blue Jays players are littered among the top average exit velocities in all of baseball (surprise, surprise). Leading all Jays’ sluggers on the list is, you guessed it, Danny Valencia.

Among players with at least 50 tracked at-bats, Valencia is actually third on the list of average exit velocity (47 spots ahead of Colabello). The top 15 players on list read in this order: Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Valencia, Miguel Carbrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Randal Grichuk, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Mark Trumbo, Jose Abreu, Pedro Alvarez, Lucas Duda and Jose Bautista. Looking at that list, one name really stands out and that’s Valencia’s.

The other 14 players on this list are either well established power hitters in the Major Leagues or projected to be one soon. Although he has approximately half the tracked at-bats of some other hitters, this raises some eyebrows.

One reason for this could be one suggested in an article by Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris titled “How Unlucky Has Carlos Gonzalez Been?”. He investigates an expected weighted On Base Average, developed by Stephen Ray Brown, in relation to Gonzalez, because it suggests that he has been very unlucky. Combining that knowledge with research from Tony Blengino about the effects of excessive ground ball pullers, he deems that Carlos Gonzalez was “unlucky, slightly”.

He reaches this evaluation because his pulled groundball tendencies can account for some of his hard hit balls as it “Turns out, you can wallop pulled balls along the ground, they’ll show good direction and velocity, but their vertical angle means they’ll be squared up right at a defender”.

I bring this up because not only does Eno use average exit velocity, but Valencia also happens to be an excessive ground ball puller:

If people start shifting on him, it could hurt his on-base numbers, but the ground balls don’t explain all his power. Even when you limit the average exit velocity to fly balls and line drives, he’s still 13th on the list (24 spots higher than Colabello), sandwiched between Josh Donaldson and J.D. Martinez, and once again among the best power hitters in the game.

This is not to suggest Valencia has been unlucky (like Gonzalez), as he and Colabello both have a very high BABIP (.353 and .392) and good numbers on the year. But, it could been one reason to believe that his numbers are more sustainable than Colabello’s long-term.

Valencia’s sample size is smaller than others and we still don’t know much about what this data means, but I think we can all agree hitting the ball hard is good.

If Valencia’s numbers prove to be more sustainable than Colabello’s, the Blue Jays will come to regret this decision.

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Is There Any Way the Blue Jays Lose the Josh Donaldson Trade?

In his first (almost) half season with Toronto Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson has accumulated 4.3 WAR. In a sports-scene obsessed with trades and who won them, it seems fair to say, in this round, the Blue Jays have come out on top of the Oakland Athletics.

However, making that kind of assumption is to underestimate the emotional baseball fan.

The Blue Jays aren’t new to the trade market – before the 2013 season, the Blue Jays executed trades for R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle and Jose Reyes among some other pieces. If you’re unfamiliar with the trade, ask any Blue Jays fan and they’ll be happy to tell you about how unhappy it makes them.

With the rise of Thor (Noah Syndergaard), and to a lesser extent Travis D’Arnaud, the Dickey trade is the one you’ll hear most about.

Overall, the trade doesn’t look great, but it made sense. R.A. Dickey has pitched a boatload of innings for the Jays and if all of their pitchers’ arms weren’t separated from their bodies, things may have been different.

So, is there any, very small chance we look back at the Josh Donaldson trade as if it just “made sense”?

First off, we have to revisit the Oakland half of the deal. In return for Josh Donaldson, the A’s received Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Franklin Barreto. Lawrie and Graveman are the only two in the major leagues at the moment and they’re…not Josh Donaldson.

Not being Josh Donaldson is a condition 95% of the league suffers from, so this isn’t a problem either should worry about. The two of them combined have accumulated less than half of the WAR Donaldson has, but they’re also have more time to grow. Lawrie is four years younger than the “Bringer of Rain” and Graveman is five years younger and in his first MLB season.

In fact, at Lawrie’s age, Donaldson had only hit one home run in the major leagues, so the former Blue Jays still have some time to figure it out.

Lawrie has shown flashes of brilliance on both sides of the ball and Graveman has thrown to a 2.70 ERA since his first start – in which he allowed eight earned runs. The one thing missing from this trade to really make Blue Jays fans regret it, is a hammer-wielding superhero on the mound. While none of the other pieces have the golden locks Syndergaard has, Barreto may have the promise.

At only 19 years old and in his first year in High-A, the young shortstop has shown an ability to hit, run and field. In 267 at-bats, Barreto has hit six home runs and stolen six bases with a slash line of .271/.312/.431. He has also shown more ability to run in the past, stealing 29 bases in 328 at-bats last season.

It’s highly unlikely any of these players are more valuable than Josh Donaldson on their own, so for the Blue Jays to ever second guess their transaction at least two of the players would have to meet their ceilings. Even then, this trade was a no-brainer for the Blue Jays.

With that said, if any of these prospects hit their ceiling, it’s safe to assume someone will find a reason to complain. They always do.

[play-your-position-blog]

Roberto Osuna: The Best 20-Year-Old Pitcher in 100 Years?

On the night of his first big-league save, Roberto Osuna looked like one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.

Osuna picked up a rare two-inning save and struck out five of the seven batters he faced. Seeing as he has only thrown 34 innings in his big league career, he won’t be considered one of the best pitchers in the league, but what about one of the best 20-year-olds?

To find out, I wandered on over to FanGraphs to compare Roberto Osuna’s numbers with what 20-year-olds have done in the past.

He is the best of his age to pitch this season, but he only has one competitor: Former teammate Miguel Castro. Osuna’s numbers become a lot more impressive when you compare them to every pitcher 20 and under since the beginning of baseball.

Since 1871, of pitchers 20 and under to throw at least 30 innings, Osuna has the 8th lowest FIP (2.11). He also has the highest strikeout percentage (30.1%), the highest strikeout to walk percentage (22.6%), is tied for the third lowest batting average against (.172) and the fifth lowest WHIP (0.91). The only pitchers ahead of him in FIP played over 100 years ago.

…What?

Keep in mind, there are only 345 other pitchers that meet these requirements and only 71 of them were relievers, but still…WHAT?

It’s more than just 20-year-olds – include all 21-year-olds (sample size increases to 799) he has the 9th best FIP and among all qualified relievers this season, Osuna has 11th lowest FIP.

It’s not like his performance has gone unnoticed, although there is no official announcement, it appears he has unseated Brett Cecil as closer of the Blue Jays. He has also been John Gibbons’ number one choice out of the bullpen all season long – pitching more innings than any Blue Jays reliever thus far. It just hasn’t felt like we’re watching something historic.

There are plenty of reasons you can come up with for his dominance, but Osuna hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down. Luckily for Gibbons, the Blue Jays may not stand in his way either.

Many will see the opportunity for Osuna to close as a way to limit his innings. This may in fact limit his innings, considering over the last 45 games (including 26 wins) the Jays have only had four save opportunities in the ninth inning, but it’s unlikely to be the reason they’re doing it.

Osuna has been pitching for less than a year since his Tommy John Surgery, but in a Spring Training interview with Shi Davidi, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos pulled away from the notion that the team will have hard innings caps. In terms of young pitching, Anthopoulos states: “No one knows what the health is going to be, but in the past we’d talk about we only have so many innings, and so on, that’s not how we’re going to look at it”.

So, as long as he remains healthy, Osuna should have plenty of leash with his innings totals and will be able to give us a much larger sample size than 34 innings to judge his first MLB season.

Even with no innings cap, Osuna won’t accumulate the amount of WAR that pitchers like Jose Fernandez and Felix Hernandez did in their 20-year-old seasons (they were starting), but no one will as a reliever. In the opportunities he’s been given, Roberto Osuna has been the best 20-year-old pitcher in more than 100 years.

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Lost in Jose Bautista’s Revenge are the Dangers of Throwing at Batters

When it rains it pours. Stories in the MLB have a tendency to snowball and one early season trend is the always controversial act of pitchers throwing at batters.

The talking point seemed to reach its pinnacle yesterday when Kansas City Royals’ reliever, Kelvin Herrera, was handed a 5-game suspension. He was punished for throwing a 100-mph fastball up and behind Oakland A’s third baseman, Brett Lawrie. The MLB brought down the hammer, but they may need to do so more often.

The act of throwing at an opposing player is very difficult to prove as intentional, so when batters are hit, there's often no more than a warning. Suspensions, ejections or fines only come with context, something Herrera’s throw had.

Two days before Herrera threw at him, Lawrie had delivered a questionable slide into second base, injuring Royals shortstop, Alcides Escobar, and clearing the benches.

 The next day Lawrie was plunked by Yordano Ventura, he took his punishment and his debt seemed to have been paid. That's until the final game of the series when Scott Kazmir hit Lorenzo Cain on the foot. Warnings were issued to both benches and eventually came Herrera’s throw.

There seem to be controversies all over baseball regarding this issue. Last night a Baltimore Orioles’ pitcher threw behind Jose Bautista for the second time this season and, just like earlier in the year, he answered with a home run in the same at-bat. That didn’t end the bickering, though. Bautista set up camp watching his home run leave the park and when it did, he capped things off with an emphatic bat flip.

The Orioles players, Adam Jones in particular, did not take kindly to Bautista’s response:

Jones: "Let's not walk halfway to 1st down the line. Come on. Respect the game. And I know he does but at that moment right there he didn't"

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith)

April 22, 2015

 These are just some of the many cases of someone being thrown at this year.

Earlier in the year Darren O’Day threw behind Bautista, Chris Archer hit two Blue Jays which led to Marco Estrada plunking Evan Longoria, Ubaldo Jimenez was ejected for hitting Pablo Sandoval and the list goes on.

Throwing at an opposing player almost always makes for an interesting game, but is it worth it?

Sports are built on rivalries and nothing gets teams revved up quite like one of their best players feeling some heat. There are an inordinate amount of examples and as many reasons this should no longer happen.

Plays like these across all sports are becoming less and less common. Goons are leaving hockey, the amount of hits deemed illegal in the NFL increase every year and the NBA even allows for video review on flagrant fouls within games.

Despite the dangers associated with how hard pitchers throw in this day and age, intentionally hitting players is still very prevalent in the league. Last season, 1,652 players were hit by a pitch (Via BaseballReference.com). While a small percentage of those were likely intentional, there was only one suspension handed out last season for hitting a player with a pitch. Three pitchers, Marcus Stroman, Brandon Workman and Nick Masset, were suspended for throwing at an opposing player but only Masset actually hit someone.

One reason for that small amount of suspensions is it’s almost impossible to differentiate an intentional hit from unintentional. As stated above, suspensions only come with context.

Stroman’s was deemed intentional because the pitch followed a play the Blue Jays were upset by (Caleb Joesph stepped on Jose Reyes’ hand). One common theme is that suspensions have come when the pitcher throws high.

Major League Baseball should be concerned with pitches in the direction of hitters no matter the height.

Already this season several key players have been injured by pitches. Devon Travis has missed time after being struck in the ribs by a pitch, Travis D’Arnaud had a pitch break his hand and Longoria had to leave the game after being hit on the hip by the pitch mentioned above.

The scariest result of all is one that happened last year to Miami Marlins slugger, Giancarlo Stanton. It was not an intentional, but Stanton was hit in the jaw by a fastball from Mike Fiers, effectively ending the slugger’s bid at MVP.

It happens rarely, but for it to happen at all should be reason enough not to throw at opposing players. There were 1,652 players hit by pitches last year. This wasn't because there were 1,652 plays that earned each player a ball on their hip, it's because pitchers miss sometimes. If they happen to miss on the 100 mph fastball they're throwing, things will get ugly.

While we’d hope justice was served equally, it never is in terms of suspensions. Professional sports first and foremost wants to protect their stars and that is just one more reason throwing at players should be a major concern.

When making a statement, it's common for the pitcher to throw at the best player on the opposing team. Since 2012, this is the list of players that were hit by pitches that led to suspensions: Alex Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist, Yasiel Puig, Andrew McCutchen, Allen Craig, Kevin Youkilis, Josh Hamilton, Bryce Harper Mike Moustakas and Troy Tulowitzski.

While Bautista had been able to take justice into his own hands in both circumstances this year, he (and others like him) won’t always be able to do so. Bautista made it clear that he feels the MLB should be stepping in to prevent any future altercations:

More Bautista: "They’re going to continue to keep doing that until something comes down from MLB."

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi)

April 22, 2015

  What is often overlooked is where the onus is placed. Pitchers can be asked by their team to throw at someone, batters are taught to slide hard, so why are they the ones punished? The game regulates itself, but is that the way Major League Baseball wants it to be? At the moment it appears so.

There is no foreseeable future where this play doesn’t exist in baseball, so in the meantime, enjoy some sweet, sweet vengeance courtesy of Jose Bautista:

[play-your-position-blog]

Blue Jays’ Bullpen Performance More Positive than Negative

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen was the biggest concern coming into the season, but their blown save on Wednesday night in New York was more positive than negative. The Jays entered the bottom of the 8th inning up 3-1 on the New York Yankees when Aaron Loup loaded the bases with no outs, prompting Brett Cecil to enter the game. Cecil didn’t fare much better, allowing all three of Loup’s runners to score and giving up three bases of his own. Neither surrendered any big hits; the three runs scored on a wild pitch, a hit batter and a potential double-play ball that ricocheted off Cecil’s forearm.

So while both pitchers were a little wild, it’s one game and their track record over the past two season suggests they’ll straighten things out. Cecil had even mentioned that his injury in the spring has him a little behind schedule:

Cecil: My pitches aren’t crisp yet. “I feel good, but I’ve got to keep reminding myself that I’m about two weeks behind everybody else.”

— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball)

April 9, 2015

The part of the bullpen to worry about coming into the season had nothing to do with Cecil or Loup, it was the people behind them. People like the 20 year olds, Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro. They ended up sandwiching the blown save with Castro getting a hold before it and Osuna cleaning things up afterwards.

Castro threw a nasty changeup to strikeout Stephen Drew and end the 7th and Osuna, not to be outdone, struck out Alex Rodriguez with the bases loaded for his first major league out.

So, before everybody goes calling for Johnathan Papelbon, know that he was a strong wind away from allowing a grand slam to Hanley Ramirez last night and blowing a save in much more dramatic fashion:

On any other day, that is a grand slam. Ramirez comes up 5 feet shy of giving @RedSox the lead.

— Tom Caron (@TomCaron)

April 9, 2015

That’s baseball.

Over the past two seasons, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup have the 32nd and 33rd lowest ERAs of all relief pitchers and Cecil has the 15th lowest FIP (Lower than Papelbon). He is no Craig Kimbrel, because who is, but Cecil deserves the shot he’s being given as the Blue Jays closer based on his success in the past and how he projects in the future.

[play-your-position-blog]

Optimistic Opener for the Blue Jays

Opening day couldn’t have gone any better for the Toronto Blue Jays, as they topped the New York Yankees 6-1.

More important than the win was who contributed to it. Drew Hutchinson, Devon Travis, Russell Martin and Miguel Castro, all players who could be considered x-factors this season, stepped up in their first opportunity. Hutchison was credited with the win on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing just one run on three hits. He’s considered a breakout candidate after a strong final month last season and a SIERA to ERA difference of nearly a run (4.48 ERA, 3.59 SIERA) – suggesting he was a little unlucky. While one month is often too small a sample size to mean anything, it is a specific change his slider that seems to have spurred the improvement as noted at Fangraphs over the winter.

He continued to lean on his slider throwing it 26.9% of the time on Monday as opposed to the 22.6% he averaged last year. But he didn’t win the game alone. The new catcher, Martin, contributed 2 RBIs and caught a runner trying to steal third on Castro’s first Major League pitch. While Castro only got to throw one pitch that inning, he looked impressive in his next inning allowing no runs and wrapping up the game. Perhaps the most impressive however, was Travis. The newly acquired second baseman was still unproven coming into camp, but after a strong spring (.359/.400/.453) he won the starting job and went 1 for 2, with a home run and two walks in his first Major League game.

Edwin Encarnacion also crushed a ball into the left-center seats, but seeing him walk his imaginary parrot around the bases is less of an x-factor and more a necessity if the Blue Jays are to have success this season. Their one through five of Reyes, Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson could be argued as the best in baseball, but if they don’t play like it, the performances of Castro, Travis and Hutchison won’t mean much.

So while it’s only game 1/162, it’s a very good start for the Blue Jays. As if there could be anything bad about the start of baseball season. 

[play-your-position-blog]

Should Age Hurt Miguel Castro or Roberto Osuna’s Chances of Making the Blue Jays?

With every inning pitched, it seems more and more likely that 20-year-olds Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna will start the 2015 season with the Toronto Blue Jays. It may not be both of them, but the way they’re pitching, it’s hard to rule either out. Castro and Osuna have arguably been the Blue Jays’ two best pitchers this spring. Both have thrown four shutout innings with two hits and no walks, and their similarities don’t stop there. They also both throw their fastballs in the mid to high 90’s and compliment them with a slider and changeup in their off speed repertoire.

Still, they’re 20 years old. A pitcher able to make the MLB at the age of 20 rarely does so because of team need, it’s because they have pitched well enough to deserve a spot on the big league club. Which is why most of the time pitchers ages 20 or under are used as starters. Starters are more coveted and make a bigger impact over the course of the season, so it makes sense why you would want your most talented pitchers to try their luck as a starter. Being a starter requires a more developed pitcher because they must face each batter three, four or even five times. They need more from their secondary pitches to keep batters guessing.

So, how have pitchers as young as Castro and Osuna fared as starters? Over the past decade (2004-2014) 16 pitchers ages 20 and under have been used primarily as starters (minimum 10 innings pitched):

*Hayden Penn was removed because his ERA was so bad it ruined my graph (6.34, 15.10, 7.77, 30.86).

From this graph it’s evident that for the most part, pitchers 20 and under were fairly inconsistent in their first year. More importantly however, it doesn’t appear to have caused any trend in developmental from the pitchers that entered this early. Out of the 16 pitchers, only four (Penn, Feierabend, Skaggs, Lyles) failed to record a season with a sub 4.00 ERA as a starter within their first six years. Castro and Osuna however, are an even rarer case. Both are being considered for bullpen roles with the Blue Jays for the time being. Only three other pitchers ages 20 or under (minimum 10 innings pitched) have been used in this manner in the past: Marcos Carvajal, Arodys Vizcaino and Jenrry Mejia. Of those three, only Mejia had any notable success as a reliever with a 3.25 ERA over 27 and two thirds innings in his first year, and even pitched to a 2.72 ERA over 56 innings last season. While the sample size is extremely small, especially in the case of relievers, the cases available do show that pitchers this young can have success without hurting their development. If the Blue Jays feel either of their pitchers have the stuff to pitch in the big leagues, and they seem to think they do, their age shouldn't negatively impact their ability to make the team.

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Toronto Suffers Torn Heart, Will Miss the 2015 Season and Marcus Stroman

The entire city of Toronto tore their ACL today. Scratch that, baseball tore their ACL today. If I’m being totally accurate it was only Marcus Stroman that tore the ligament in his knee, thus ending his 2015 season:

.@BlueJays RHP Marcus Stroman suffers torn left ACL and will miss 2015 season.

— MLB (@MLB)

March 10, 2015

But that doesn't mean it doesn't hurt. Stroman entered 2014 with question marks surrounding his capabilities as a starter. He was too short, he was too young and he was more suited for the bullpen. One season later he was Roy Halladay’s sinker, Johnny Cueto’s Four-Seam and Jose Fernandez’s Curveball, and as a result he became the darling of all Toronto Blue Jays fans.

In addition to his immense talent, Stroman is a very likeable guy and it always sucks to see a good person suffer some bad luck. Just yesterday, everything was all smiles as Stroman was posting selfies with Mark “PaPa” Buehrle on social media:

#PapaBuehrle and his adopted son. Lol pic.twitter.com/tSWxWJ9n3q

— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6)

March 9, 2015

Now we’re here, as this bunting drill (Yes, a bunting drill) brought Stroman and excited baseball fans to their knees. I mean, he’s not dead, everyone will be fine. Stroman, baseball fans and the Blue Jays will make due until he can make his return in 2016.

You only have to look back less than a week to see how exciting it was to watch Matt Harvey return after his electric rookie year and subsequent injury. He was trending on Twitter after two innings in a Spring Training game.

In terms of on the field impact, it did seem that if there was a time to push for a postseason berth, this was it. The division has no clear favourite and the Blue Jays have a collection of stars best profiled to contribute to a winning squad now. Although neither were all-in moves by the Jays, it appears they felt the same way acquiring Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin in the offseason.

With that said, the Blue Jays organization can’t begin mourning their 2015 season already.

The obvious hope for the the team in this situation is for internal options to emerge.

Looking at the situation positively, if they were to suffer an injury in one department of their squad, this was the one with the most depth. Daniel Norris, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and Johan Santana were already in a fight for the final spot in the starting rotation, the only difference now is they’re fighting for two spots instead of one.

With more space in the starting rotation for those four that also opens up more room in the bullpen. Youngsters like Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna may have seen their chances to make the team increase and if they do, it could make for a stronger team in 2016.

Aside from the immense sadness felt around the baseball world and more-so Stroman, his friends and family, the Blue Jays spring theme remains consistent: Hope someone steps up.

[play-your-position-blog]

Spring Training: First Week (Over)Reactions

The Blue Jays are five games into Spring Training and anything that's happened thus far means very little. That being said, we’re all hungry for some baseball and some juicy baseball banter. While Spring Training statistics don’t mean much, one thing you can take away from these games is how people are bouncing back from injuries and the early favourites to win fringe spots on the team. I use the word fringe very generously; the Blue Jays could have as many as three positions in the starting lineup, one in the rotation and five in the bullpen up for grabs. Bullpen The bullpen is garnering the most attention early in camp. Although the starting line-up and rotation have their issues, they are both propped up by the type of high end talent that the Blue Jays can’t really lean on in their ‘pen – especially if this Brett Cecil injury is more serious than the team is letting on. The two bullpen spots that (barring injury) are sure things entering Spring Training are the aforementioned Cecil, and fellow lefty Aaron Loup. The others expected to compete for the remaining four spots are: Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, Steve Delabar, Chad Jenkins, Todd Redmond, Rob Rasmussen, Kyle Drabek and Wilton Lopez. Daniel Norris, Miguel Castro, Roberto Osuna and several others also have an outside shot at making the team, but they will need stellar performances in spring. Castro and Osuna are both twenty years old and they've caught the attention of some people around camp. In Castro’s case, even newcomer Russell Martin has taken notice. Each of them have been mentioned as possibilities, but realistically Norris provides more value in the rotation or as depth in Triple-A and the two twenty year olds are just that, twenty years old. Estrada and Sanchez would have to have complete meltdowns to not make the team, the only question being who will be the fifth starter and who will land in the bullpen. Of course there is a chance that neither land the rotation (for reasons we’ll discuss below) and both end up in the bullpen. As for bounce-back candidates, it appears the Jays may be counting on Delabar. He has been a hot topic between John Gibbons and Alex Anthopoulos on several radio shows, with Gibbons even bringing him up in relation to the closer role on TSN 1050. So far he has pitched two innings, allowing one run on three hits and a walk, with three strikeouts. Nothing to write home about and certainly nothing to thrust him into the closer role. Much like with Delabar, AA spoke optimistically about the possibilities of Drabek making the squad on TSN 1050. Drabek has lost some velocity since his second Tommy John surgery and just hasn’t been the same pitcher that was a key piece of the Roy Halladay trade. Working in his favour is that he's out of options this year, so the Blue Jays have some incentive to keep him in the big leagues or they’ll risk losing him. AA specifically mentioned Drabek’s use of his cutter as a positive and his last outing ended with a strikeout on back-to-back cutters. So, there is still hope yet. Redmond is also out of options and will likely return to his role as long reliever to start the season. Jenkins and Rasmussen both have an option remaining, but are still strong candidates after pitching well with the club last season.

Newcomer Wilton Lopez is an intriguing pickup. He was a very effective reliever with the Houston Astros from 2010-2012, but has since struggled with the Colorado Rockies. He has thrown two perfect innings with two strikeouts this spring. Spring invitees such as Preston Guilmet, Colt Hynes, Bo Schultz and Ryan Tepera have done all they can so far, but will need a prolonged effort to start unseating some of the other contenders. Rotation The rotation will enter the season with R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison as their one through four. The Jays don’t plan on going back to the days of a four man rotation, so there will be one spot up for grabs. There are four players in contention for this spot: Johan Santana, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Marco Estrada. After signing Santana to a late minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, he is the biggest wild card entering the preseason. Santana has suffered from injury problems since 2011 and hasn’t pitched in a major league game since 2012. If he is able to regain some strength in his shoulder, the former Cy Young winner could be the best fit for the rotation. With Santana as the fifth starter, the Blue Jays would be able to keep Estrada and Sanchez in the ‘pen, and move Norris down to Triple-A for some starting pitcher depth. Don’t expect a decision anytime soon though; none of these pitchers have thrown more than three innings in a single game thus far. Position Players You’re not going to believe this, but the Blue Jays don’t have a starting second baseman. Maicer Izturis seems like the front runner, ahead of Ryan Goins and offseason acquisition Devon Travis. Izturis hasn’t really taken the job in the spring (0-5, R, BB), but he is out of options and has the most major league success of the three. He will likely remain on the squad as a backup even if someone else shows enough to take the starting position from him. Ryan Goins has hit .300 in ten at bats, an average that if he can hit within 20 points of over the spring, his glove will surely carry him to a big league roster spot. Travis is the future of the position and the Jays were definitely hoping it was the very near future. He has received the second most at bats among all the Jays this spring, but he has failed to do much with them. In 13 at bats he has one hit, no walks, two strikeouts and has been caught stealing. He will need to show more to get caught stealing the starting role this season. Second base stands out because of how long it’s been since the Jays have and someone at that position, but the outfield may be of bigger concern. After an injury to newcomer Michael Saunders, there is a glaring lack of depth in the outfield.

Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar are the most likely to fill the openings in center and left field. They have both shown flashes this spring, but keep in mind neither of them has more than 15 at bats. If Saunders is not back in time for opening day the Jays will be looking at one of Chris Colabello, Dayan Viciedo and Eziquiel Carrera to step up in a bench role. Colabello has performed the best so far, going 3 for 10 with a two-run homer run. He could also chip in at first base should the Justin Smoak/Danny Valencia experiment not work out. To read any further into five games of spring training I may need to do some swing analysis or break down every pitch, which I refuse to do. However, I will provide a weekly update on all Spring Training happenings for the rest of March and provide some insight into interesting stories around baseball this spring.

[play-your-position-blog]

Peter Horachek: A Leader with Character and Grit

For Peter Horachek, it appears the word possession is more than just semantics. On Friday Night, the Toronto Maple Leafs earned their first victory under the newly appointed interim coach 5-2 over the Columbus Blue Jackets.

In both games with Horachek as Head Coach, the Leafs have possessed the puck at a much higher rate than they did during Randy Carlyle’s tenure. The Leafs have a 50.9% Even Strength Score Adjusted Corsi in these last two games played and 44.2% in the first 40 according to puckon.net. It should be mentioned though, this is a small sample size including one equally poor possession team in Columbus. That didn’t stop Horachek – after game number one – from noting on TSN 1050 radio that “[The Leafs] possession numbers were better”. Last season, Randy Carlyle often made suggestions that he wished the team would possess the puck more. However, when his staff bashed the possession metrics available and Carlyle cited hits as an indicator of his team’s play, it seemed as if Carlyle didn’t understand the meaning of the word “possession” in today’s NHL.

This ideology was backed up earlier this season when Dave Nonis referenced his team’s luck (PDO) driven winning streaks as their desired level of play.

It’s hard to imagine there have been significant system implementations made in Horachek’s short tenure, but quotes like these show he is more aware of his team’s underlying numbers.

As for changes thus far, player usage could have an impact on how the team has played. Over the last two games, Morgan Rielly and Richard Panik have both played career highs in minutes and the (horrible possession) line of James Van Reimsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Phil Kessel has been broken up. Horachek stressed on the Fan 590 that ice time would be earned and it appears that these changes are based on that philosophy.

Toronto has elite scorers and a very good goalie tandem, and at times these will be enough to carry the team into the upper echelon of both shooting and save percentages. What will be key is if the Leafs can sustain these possession numbers, as even ones as mediocre as these can lead high PDO teams to the top of the standings in the East (See: Montreal).

With all of this said, there won't be any truly useful data before at least 10 games. Until then, the Leafs face a nice measuring stick on Monday night: the poster boys of puck possession, the Los Angeles Kings.

[play-your-position-blog]

Randy Carlyle Is Finally Gone...What Now?

Ding Dong! The Witch is dead. Which old Witch? Randy Carlyle. Randy Carlyle has finally been relieved of his duties by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Carlyle went 91-78-19 (20th in the NHL) in his time with the Leafs, sporting a 44.2% Score Adjusted Corsi (29th in the league) over the course of 188 games since 2012.

Carlyle has been on the hot seat all season after being at the helm of a historic collapse in 2013-2014, in which the Leafs went 2-14-0 over their final 16 games.

Depending on who is controlling the temperature of Carlyle’s metaphorical seat, there is an argument to be made that Carlyle has been (or should have been) under fire for a longer period of time.

The advanced stats community often points to players that had been effective under other coaches before and after Carlyle, and within his systems their numbers suffered within roles they were unfit to play. Mikhail Grabovski was the highest profile of Carlyle’s victims, largely due to his buyout (4 seasons at $5.5 million). Nikolai Kulemin, Clarke MacArthur, John Michael Liles, and Dion Phaneuf also eventually felt the same impact in Toronto.

It will be interesting to see if the entire Leafs’ team will receive the same boost upon the Carlyle’s exit. The best comparison we can draw from is the Anaheim Ducks’ performance in every game since Carlyle’s exit and an equal amount their last games during his tenure:

If the Leafs receive the same bump in Score Adjusted Corsi% that Anaheim did, they would still only rank 26th in the league. To have any true success over the rest of the season, the Leafs will need a larger increase than Anaheim received in possession numbers, while maintaining their above average goaltending and shooting skill. 

[play-your-position-blog]

Asdrubal Cabrera Signing with the Rays Opens Another Door for the Jays

One day after MLB insider, Jon Morosi, suggested Toronto as a potential landing spot for Asdrubal Cabrera, the free agent shortstop has reportedly reached an agreement with the Tampa Bay Rays:

Sources: #Rays in agreement with Asdrubal Cabrera, pending physical.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal)

December 30, 2014

Cabrera has predominantly played shortstop over the course of his career, but the Blue Jays were pursuing him as an everyday second baseman. At shortstop, Cabrera has played barely above replacement level. Over the last two seasons, Cabrera has a 96 wRC+ and a .241/.303/.394 batting line. Combine those numbers with his struggles defensively; he has a combined 2.2 WAR and the Jays may not be missing out on much. Cabrera may have seen a slight improvement in his defensive statistics with a switch to second base, but his UZR at second over his career is still negative at -3.6. Cabrera signing with the Rays could actually excite the Blue Jays front office more than it upset them. Before Christmas, there had been rumblings of the Rays dealing their perennially underrated utility man, Ben Zobrist, and this signing only adds more fuel to that fire. Zobrist has had four straight season of an above 5.0 WAR (6.3, 5.9, 5.4, 5.7) and has spent the majority of that time playing second base (4235.2 Innnings). He is also 33 years old and is in the last year of his contract with the Rays, which could explain why they are exploring the option of trading him. The trade talks that surround the Blue Jays are always scary with top prospects like Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Dalton Pompey around, but Zobrist seems like a perfect fit. He would fill the gaping hole at second base, provide depth in the outfield, and could even give Jose Reyes more rest.

For the Blue Jays, Asdrubal Cabrera could be the best signing of the offseason.

(All stats courtesy of www.FanGraphs.com)

[play-your-position-blog]

Never Mind the Big Dollars, Here Are the Small Dollar Relievers That Could Interest the Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays need relievers, but General Manager Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network Radio, “[they] don’t expect to be involved with the big dollars in the bullpen pieces”. The Blue Jays may hope for some internal emergence to improve their bullpen, but big dollars or not, they may need to explore options outside the organization to fill it out.

Two seasons ago, the Blue Jays’ relief pitchers were the strongest part of their team. Brett Cecil and Steve Delabar both emerged as all-stars. Casey Janssen closed out 34 of 36 save opportunities. Overall, the bullpen combined for the eighth highest WAR across the MLB. Last season, their WAR fell to 22nd in the league, their ERA ballooned to 4.09, Steve Delabar was sent down to Triple-A, and Casey Janssen faltered down the stretch. Now, three members of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, and Janssen, are not expected to return to the team. So, let’s take a look at the state of the bullpen today. Brett Cecil returns after another very strong season and has potential to fill Janssen’s role as closer. Over 53.1 innings in 2014, Cecil struck out 76 and walked 27 en route to a 2.70 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The three other members of the bullpen set to return are Todd Redmond, Aaron Loup, and Aaron Sanchez. Redmond and Loup should maintain their current roles as long reliever and middle reliever/lefty specialist. However, Sanchez’s role remains unclear.

During his short stint in the majors, Sanchez was dominant. In 33.0 innings pitched, he posted a 1.08 ERA, struck out 27, walked nine, and held batters to a .126 average. Sanchez is expected to be a starter eventually, but since the Blue Jays need him most in the bullpen, that’s likely where he'll start the season. Barring any significant changes in training camp, he should find himself back in a similar role as a set-up man with the potential to close the occasional game.

So far, the only new member of the bullpen is Marco Estrada. The 31 year old right hander struggled as a starter in 2014 and was moved to the bullpen, before ultimately being dealt to the Blue Jays in November. Last season, his ERA was 4.96 as a starter – largely due to allowing a league leading 2.27 home runs per nine innings – and 2.89 as a reliever. Given that performance gap, Estrada should start in the bullpen and be considered interchangeable with J.A. Happ should he struggle.

These five relievers, three right handers and two lefties, should be locks to make the team. The number of spots left with the big league club will depend on if the Blue Jays choose to roll out an eight or seven man bullpen. For these projections, we will assume that Toronto will use the latter of the two, since it's more common and allows for a deeper bench.

Internally the Blue Jays have two options to fill these spots in Daniel Norris and Chad Jenkins.

Norris, the Blue Jays top prospect according to MLB.com, may be kept in Triple-A to remain stretched out and create more depth for the starting rotation. This seems especially likely after trading away other Triple-A starters Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin.

Jenkins has had a 2.63 ERA over 65 innings in the big leagues during the past two seasons. Over a much larger sample size in the minors, he has a 4.20 ERA. Although Jenkins has performed well during his time with the Blue Jays, the team should explore other options that may offer more big league experience.

So, assuming Jenkins and Norris start the season in Triple-A, the Blue Jays could look to fill their bullpen through trade or through some cheaper free agent arms. There are potential trades that could happen with a player such as Dioner Navarro. Since that's purely speculative, let’s explore some potential buy-low free agent relievers.

To determine what counts as a “buy low” candidate, I'm going to eliminate any relievers on Jon Heyman’s MLB Free Agency: Top 50. This list includes: David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Sergio Romo, Francisco Rodriguez, Luke Gregerson, Rafael Soriano, Pat Neshek, Casey Janssen, Jason Grilli, and Luke Hochevar. This is an arbitrary way to decide who fits AA’s description of “big dollars”, but it creates a tidy list of the top 10 relievers that we will not consider in this analysis.

Here are the small dollar free agents that could be on the Blue Jays’ watch list:

Joba Chamberlain, 29, RHP

What better place to go dumpster diving than the tire fire that was the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen last season. In 2014, Chamberlain pitched 63.0 innings with a 3.57 ERA. He struck out 8.43 and walked 3.43 per nine innings, and his 3.16 FIP suggests his ERA may have been a little unlucky. If Chamberlain can keep his walk rate consistent with last season, his ability to strike batters out will allow him to remain effective. At 29 years old he is the youngest of the pitchers on this list, so the Jays may be more comfortable giving him a little extra term to keep his dollar value low.

Mike Adams, 36, RHP

Adams has struggled to stay on the field over the last two seasons. Still, the 43.2 innings he has been on the field for have been excellent. Consider that over 18.2 innings in 2014, Adams pitched to a 10.13 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, and a 2.89 ERA. Despite the small sample size, Adams has excellent career numbers – 9.04 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, and a 2.41 ERA – and with a slight regression towards his career walks-per-nine-innings, he could be very effective. Adams will turn 37 in July, and combined with his injury history, it’s doubtful he attracts more than a one year deal. Ultimately, his value will being dependent on his ability to stay healthy.

Joe Thatcher, 33, LHP

In 2014, Thatcher was an extremely efficient pitcher with a 27K:4BB ratio over 30.1 innings. If Cecil is used in the closer role, the Blue Jays may want another lefty in their bullpen, and Thatcher is the only left handed pitcher on this list. He throws very lightly – 85.9 mph average fastball velocity – and as a result must rely on his control. Thatcher does have a much higher BB/9 over his career than he did last season (1.19 in 2014, 2.99 career), but if he can maintain an above average control of his fastball, he should remain effective.

Jason Motte, 32, RHP

This is the boom-or-bust member of the list. Two years ago, Jason Motte was the St. Louis Cardinals’ closer. He closed out 42 of 47 games for the Cards with a 2.75 ERA, 10.75 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, and his fastball had an average velocity of 97.1 mph. He was everything you could want in a closer. However, before he was able to pitch in the 2013 season, he was forced to have Tommy John surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right elbow. Coming back last season, Motte pitched 25.0 innings with a 4.68 ERA – and a 6.49 FIP suggesting things could have been much worse. Motte’s velocity decreased significantly in his return from surgery. He averaged 94.4 mph on his fastball, which led to a 6.12 K/9 and his terrible season. If the Blue Jays have faith that his velocity can return after a longer period of healing, Motte could rebound from his poor season and be a steal at the bottom of the free agent barrel.

Pitchers are extremely fragile assets, and it’s dangerous to invest much money in them. This is something the Blue Jays learned first hand with the likes of Sergio Santos, Ricky Romero, Steve Delabar and many more. The free agents in this list are unlikely to perform as well as some of the relievers that could command “big dollars”, but if Anthopoulos wants to go bargain hunting, these players are worth pursuing.

(All stats in this article are courtesy of www.Fangraphs.com and www.Baseball-Reference.com)

[play-your-position-blog]

Josh Donaldson, You're Too Good to Be True. Billy Beane, I Can't Take My Eyes off of You.

When dealing with Billy Beane, buyer beware. Late Friday night, the Toronto Blue Jays sent Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklin Barreto to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for All-Star third baseman, Josh Donaldson. For the Blue Jays, this seems like a deal too good to be true.

Coming into this offseason, there were many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays’ line-up and what direction management wanted to move in with the team. Melky Cabrera, Casey Janssen, Colby Rasmus, Dustin McGowan, and Brandon Morrow all became free agents, and it seemed unlikely that all of them, if any, would return. Now three weeks into free agency, none of these players have re-signed with the Blue Jays, and Alex Anthopoulos isn’t holding his breath. With the acquisitions of Josh Donaldson and the $82-million-catcher Russell Martin, the Blue Jays have suddenly forced the baseball world to pay attention.

Russell Martin has been praised for his pitch framing and defensive abilities, while Donaldson is praised for basically everything he does. When looking at Josh Donaldson’s game, it’s difficult to find any glaring weaknesses – he hits for power, average, and is excellent defensively. Over the last two seasons combined, these attributes have lead him to capture the third highest WAR in all of Major League Baseball.

So, it makes sense that the Blue Jays coveted Donaldson, but still, it begs the question: why were the Athletics willing to trade him away? Dealing with the Oakland Athletics is always a scary thought; Billy Beane has become famous for gathering players that exceed their perceived value and getting rid of the ones who don’t. It’s easy to see the attractiveness in Brett Lawrie. He’s dazzling on defense, often making plays few else could, and has stretches of brilliance at the plate. However, he has had trouble with injuries, and when he is able to stay on the field, he often lacks consistency. With Lawrie, the most you can hope for is that he becomes what Josh Donaldson has been for two years. If he can, the trade is more than fair. Still, since that seems unlikely, let’s consider other variables.

Neither Kendall Graveman nor Sean Nolin are projected to be top of the rotation starters, but after their first taste of the big leagues in September, some scouts say they could be MLB ready.

Shortstop Franklin Barreto could be considered the wild card in this trade. He is only 18 years old and a ways away from the big leagues but had a very impressive first season in Low-A slashing .311/.384/.481. Baretto is far from a sure thing, and even if his bat is for real, some doubt his ability to play shortstop in the future:

Franklin Barreto is a natural hitter. Quick hands, compact stroke, knack for the barrel. Good speed, but not a shortstop. 2B/CF most likely.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler)

November 29, 2014

With the inclusion of these prospects, the package sent Oakland’s way just doesn't seem worth the risk of giving up Donaldson. Especially considering that the Blue Jays didn’t give up any of their top three pitching prospects (Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, or Daniel Norris). The only factor left to consider is whether Beane believes Donaldson has played at a level above his capabilities and is dealing him at peak value.

Last season, Donaldson batted .255/.342/.456 with 29 homeruns and 98 RBI. Donaldson’s batting average dipped from .301 in 2013 to .255 in 2014, largely due to his BABIP dropping from .333 to .278. A reason for his lower BABIP could be a drop in line drive percent (20.6% to 13.5%) and an inflated flyball percent (35.6% to 41.1%). So, Donaldson has been getting under the ball more often and creating a higher number of home runs but also more easy outs. His homerun-to-flyball percentage has remained consistent during his two seasons in Oakland (14.2% and 14.6%), but he should see a spike after playing in Toronto’s hitter-friendly park (all stats via Fangraphs.com). Donaldson will be a more productive hitter if he can repeat his line drive percent from 2013, but anything equal to or in between either of his season totals make him a top-10 position player. So, even if Donaldson is at peak value, he doesn’t appear to be coming down anytime soon.

With all things considered, the trade appears to be in the Blue Jays favour. It was a huge risk for the Athletics to invest this much in an above average, non-elite group of prospects, especially with Donaldson under control for four seasons, one more than Lawrie. In the meantime, Blue Jays fans can only hope that Billy Beane’s peculiar offseason decisions (first Butler, now Donaldson) are just a sign of him losing his edge versus him once again knowing a little more than the rest of us. 

[play-your-position-blog]

Cody Franson Is the Leafs Best Defenceman, but He Might Not Be Next Year

On Thursday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2. The win didn't provide much drama, but Leafs Nation was left with one story line to irrationally unnerve them. The overreaction was due to the Leafs' decision not to salute their fans after winning at home, and when asked about it Dion Phaneuf stated the Leafs were “just changing up routine”. 

Lost among all this, Cody Franson extended his point streak to nine games with an assist on James Van Riemsdyk’s first goal of the night. Although you would be hard pressed to find any consistency in the Leafs’ performances recently, Franson has consistently been Toronto’s best defender.

For the third consecutive offseason, the Leafs signed Franson to a one year deal (this one for $3.3 million). The Leafs failed to show the 27 year old defender the same confidence they did with Jake Gardiner – who signed a 4 year $20.25 million deal in the summer. Failing to lock up Franson long term may prove a costly mistake for the Blue and White, as they have long been guilty of mishandling assets and failing to extract their value.   

While the Leafs’ drafting and development is often scolded for their inability to produce home grown talent, it is the management team’s decisions to either trade picks, trade players who haven’t yet reached their full potential, or allocate money to the wrong players that have cost them.

Since 2006, the Leafs have traded away – for nothing on their current roster – Tuukka Rask, Alexander Steen, Anton Stralman, Jiri Tlusty, and the picks that turned out to be Lars Eller, Roman Josi, Brandon Saad, and John Gibson. The Leafs also let Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, and Clarke MacArthur walk away for nothing in return, with the intentions of instead giving big money to David Clarkson, Tyler Bozak, and Leo Komarov.

This group of players is a good start to an ex-Leafs’ asset team that could potentially be better than the current Toronto squad, and Cody Franson could be the next one to join the club.

Franson is an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career at the end of the season, and at the moment he is on pace to have a significant amount of money thrown his way. Franson has excelled this season after being given more responsibility on with the Leafs’, playing on the top pairing alongside Dion Phaneuf.

League wide, Franson leads all defencemen (minimum 10 games played) in even strength (five on five) points per 60 minutes (1.88) and is second in all situation points per 60 minutes (2.36), behind only Mark Giordano. Franson has also had an excellent season possession wise, leading all Leafs’ defencemen in even strength Corsi (51.0%) and is the only defender above 50%. Phaneuf has benefitted from having Franson on his line as well; the Leafs have 45.3% of the shot attempts when Phaneuf is on the ice without Franson, and 50.9% of them when they are on the ice together (all stats courtesy of www.waronice.com and www.stats.hockeyanalysis.com).

For the most part analytics have shined positively on Cody Franson, however they have not had a direct impact on his contract situation in the past. As a restricted free agent possession stats aren't frequently used because only numbers officially tracked by the NHL can be used in salary arbitration, and Corsi isn’t one of them. As an unrestricted free agent, Franson's ability to drive possession should increase his value as more and more teams begin to experiment with analytics.

A comparable contract for Franson is the one Matt Niskanen signed this offseason -- $40.25 million over seven years for an average annual value of $5.75 million.

Niskanen had slightly better possession numbers last season (53.4%) than Franson, but was on a much better team in the Pittsburgh Penguins. Franson however, is scoring at a much higher pace than Niskanen did last season. Franson currently has 0.81 points per game, a pace that is unlikely to continue given he has averaged 0.56 over the last three seasons. In 2013-2014, Niskanen was scoring at about Franson's three year average, with 0.57 points per game. Even if Franson does score at his three year average over the final 62 games, he should finish at approximately 49 points -- three more than Niskanen's 2013-2014 season total.

Whether he will sign for more than or equal to what Niskanen did will likely depend on whether or not the salary cap goes up at the end of the season. Largely because many teams were expecting it to rise and have spent accordingly. For example, the Toronto Maple Leafs already have $53.5 million on the books for next season, leaving $15.5 million to sign nine players in accordance with what will come off of their current roster. Three of the nine players that will need new contracts next season are Johnathan Bernier, Nazem Kadri, and of course Cody Franson, who on their own could likely demand the entirety of Toronto’s available cap space.

Given all of these factors, there is a good chance that Cody Franson is no longer a Toronto Maple Leaf next season. For Toronto's sake, hopefully recent history isn't an indicator of how they will handle Franson, because if you think the Maple Leafs are struggling now, losing your best defencemen for nothing in return is probably not the best way to turn things around.

Oh, and don’t forget he was the only Leafs’ player who instinctively went to salute the fans after the last night’s game:

Best part of the no salute? Franson going to center ice thinking there was going to be one. http://t.co/fEgIjjNWJx

— SkinnyFishman (@SkinnyPPPhish)

November 21, 2014