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Predictable Insights - 7.30.21

Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets.

Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt's market analysts.

It’s Friday and here are the market insights we’ve been collecting this week. First, we’re doing one more check on next Tuesday’s special elections in Ohio to set you up for any last minute trading on the dueling Democratic and Republican primaries in OH-11 and OH-15. Both primaries are seen as litmus tests on the perspective parties.

Then, we’re looking at the leaders of two countries who you might be surprised have some things in common — Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro — both are facing re-election campaigns amid falling approval numbers and issues handling the coronavirus pandemic (amongst other issues!).

We’ve also launched two new markets today focused on the Senate: beginning of the budget reconciliation process and total votes for the infrastructure deal.

This Week in the Markets

Nina Turner at the People's Rally, Washington, DC in 2016 with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Photo: Lorie Shaull / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Ohio Special Elections Hit the Final Stretch

Two Ohio special elections next Tuesday are being seen as testing grounds for both Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms. How powerful are the different factions of both parties, and what messaging works for their constituents?

Ohio’s 11th Congressional District will be the Democrats’ test, and the 15th Congressional District will test Republicans. If you’ve been keeping up with your PredictIt emails, you’re already familiar with these races, but this is your last chance to beef up on your knowledge before Tuesday.

For Democrats, the OH-11 race is closing out with a flurry of surrogate visits and attack ads. Leading the race is progressive-wing favorite Nina Turner, previously national co-chair for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) presidential campaign, and establishment-backed Shontel Brown, the Cuyahoga County Democratic chairwoman and county council member.

Market Prices at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will win the Democratic nomination in the Ohio 11th District special election?

National surrogates and out-of-state money have fueled, and attacked, both candidates. With over $6 million spent, this race is the most expensive special House election in 2021. In the final days of the campaign, anti-Turner ads have continued to focus on her criticism of the last two Democratic nominees for president — former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and current President Joe Biden, favoring Sanders instead.

Meanwhile, Turner’s campaign has accused Brown of self-dealing and corruption. At a Wednesday news conference, Turner and allies warned that the campaign against her was funded by corporate-friendly conservatives who wanted a pliable member of Congress. That’s throwing some serious shade, but it’s unclear if those attacks on Brown have landed with voters, as she continues to tighten the race against the frontrunner.

Turner still holds the fundraising lead, with more than $4.5 million raised in total to about $2.1 million raised by Brown. The largest unknown will be voter turnout on Tuesday – with low numbers expected due to the summer-time election in an off-year.

Heavy-hitters, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) and Sanders, will travel to the district this weekend to campaign with Brown and Turner, respectively. Two Republicans are also seeking their party’s nomination, but in a district where Biden won with 80% of the vote, the Democrat nominee is all but guaranteed to win in November.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

Over in OH-15, where former President Donald Trump won 56% of the vote in 2020, the battle is between the Trump-wing of the Republican Party and its establishment – with the winner also almost assured of victory come November. Ten Republicans are vying for the nomination to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH), who left Congress in May to join the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, but the frontrunners are Trump-endorsed energy industry lobbyist Mike Carey and state Rep. Jeff LaRe (R), who has Stivers’ endorsement.

Next week’s primary will be another test of how much sway Trump’s influence will have in the 2022 midterms. This week, Texas state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R) defeated Susan Wright, the widow of former Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX) and the recipient of a full blown Trump endorsement, in the special election in Texas’ 6th Congressional District. Wright’s defeat marked the first time a candidate Trump endorsed had lost an election since he left office. That dealt a serious blow to the Trump universe, a repeat of which in Ohio could fuel speculation that the former president has lost his touch ahead of the 2022 midterms where he’s expected to play a major roll.

Like Wright in Texas, Carey has made a significant effort to play up his connections to Trump, and his endorsement. His campaign released internal polling that put him in the lead, with his support doubling once voters were told that Trump supports him.

Market Prices at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will be the Republican nominee in the OH-15 special election?

Other candidates in the Republican primary are state Sens. Bob Peterson and Stephanie Kunze, and former state Rep. Ron Hood, among others. Trump reiterated his support for Carey this week as other candidates have tried to emphasize their own support for the former president in their campaign materials.

“Numerous candidates in the Great State of Ohio, running in Congressional District 15, are saying that I am supporting them, when in actuality, I don’t know them, and don’t even know who they are. But I do know who Mike Carey is—I know a lot about him, and it is all good. Mike Carey is the only one who has my Endorsement and he’s the one I feel will do the best job for Ohio, and for the United States. Please vote for Mike Carey next Tuesday, and let there be no further doubt who I have Endorsed!” – statement from former President Donald Trump

This race hasn’t brought in as much spending as the Democrats in OH-11, potentially signaling that the Trump endorsement is expected to carry more significance than in Texas. But just to be sure, Trump-affiliated PACs this week have pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race to support Carey with the hope that they don’t see a repeat of Tuesday’s result in Texas.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?

Market Pulse: Polling in the last month released by Brown’s campaign has shown her closing the gap with Turner in the OH-11 special election Democratic primary, with just 7% margin between the two top candidates as of a few weeks ago. That’s a change from earlier polling that showed a heavy lead for Turner. The market tracking this election has cooled on Turner this week, after a two-week high of 75¢ on Monday, she was down to 60¢ on Thursday – a market low. Brown’s contract has been an inverse – hitting a high of 43¢ on July 19, Brown’s numbers started going down again and dipped to 24¢ on Monday, before climbing the last few days to 39¢ as of close on Thursday. No other candidates in this race are (or have ever been) above 1¢.

As of Thursday, we’re also asking traders what the margin of victory will be in the OH-11 special election Democratic primary, and traders are favoring Brown winning by more than 6% at 24¢, followed closely by Turner winning by more than 10% at 18¢. The two extremes were flipped upon market opening, but within a few hours had flipped to favor Brown in early trading.

Market Prices at 5 a.m. EDT: Ohio 11th and 15th District special election primary margin of victory markets.

In the Republican race, Carey hit a 30-day high on Monday of 93¢ and has led the market for Republican nominee in OH-15 special election since being introduced on June 9. Carey has never dipped below 70¢, and his entry into the market dealt a blow to the only other significant candidate at the time, LaRe, who hit a high of 38¢ on June 2 before crumbling upon Carey’s introduction. He was up 7¢ Thursday to close the day at 10¢. The only other viable candidate, according to traders, is Ron Hood, who was introduced to the market on July 2 at 15¢ and hit a high of 20¢ Tuesday – he ended Thursday at 18¢.

Traders are less sure about the margin of victory in OH-15 special election Republican primary. At the end of the day Thursday, they were favoring an outcome of “18% or more” at 9¢. The market favored “8% to 10%” throughout the day at 25¢, but that contact closed out yesterday at just 5¢.

Yoshihide Suga during his first press conference as Prime Minister of Japan. Photo: Official Website of the Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet / CC BY 4.0.

Why Japan is the Biggest Loser at the Summer Olympics

Japan had high hopes for hosting the Summer Olympics, but that was back in 2019 when we were ignorant of the 2020 global pandemic looming right around the corner. The delayed-from-2020 Olympic Games opened in Tokyo last Friday among widespread public concern, and some public protests, about the country’s leadership valuing the Games above public health concerns.

Nearly a decade ago, when then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lobbied the International Olympic Committee (IOC) for the 2020 Summer Olympics, there was hope across the board that it would be a chance for Japan to show that the country is still a global force amid a shrinking population and after the devastation of the 2011 tsunami. Organizers also forecasted that the flood of visitors would bring in upwards of $2 billion in tourism spending. By 2019, most of the venues for the Games were finished on or ahead of schedule, and the IOC called Tokyo the best prepared host city in Olympic history. Then, BAM – COVID-19!! (We all know the feeling, Japan).

Instead, the decision to go ahead with the Olympics – even without crowds and special pandemic-era precautions – has compounded concerns within the country over the pandemic response and has added pressure on Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga ahead of national elections expected this fall.

“I decided that the Olympics can go ahead without compromising the safety of the Japanese people. The simplest thing and the easiest thing is to quit, but the government’s job is to tackle challenges,” said Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

Prices at 5 a.m. EDT: Will Suga Yoshihide be prime minister of Japan on Sept. 1?

Japan has managed to keep COVID-19 case rates relatively low since March 2020, but in the weeks before the rescheduled Games were set to open in Tokyo, the Delta variant began driving case rates up around the world. Japan’s vaccination drive began late and slowly, but picked up dramatically in May for several weeks as the supply of imported vaccines stabilized. Still, only around 22% of the population is fully vaccinated and case rates have skyrocketed to record-breaking levels for Japan.

The failure of Japan to accelerate its vaccination rollout in time for the Summer Games was difficult to comprehend for some.

“For a country that was hosting the Olympics and for a prime minister who was gambling his fate on the success of the Olympics, not to be able to vaccinate on time…is mind boggling,” said Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo.

In response, Tokyo was placed under its fourth round of state of emergency orders, and rules were put in place to contain Olympic participants in a bubble that would not impact everyday Japanese life. The extent that the decision is working is still up for debate.

Meanwhile, Suga’s approval rating reached record lows in July polls. Entering into territory that for most has foreshadowed an end to their time in office, reports Nikkei Asia. Approval of Suga’s cabinet sank 9% from last month to 34%. These numbers, released earlier this week, could have been the wakeup call that Suga needed to publicly address the rise in infection rates.

NHK Survey: Suga and his Cabinet hit precariously low levels of support.

In a public appearance on Thursday, the prime minister maintained that there was no connection between the Olympics and the surge in cases, and encouraged the public to watch from their homes instead of congregating in bars and restaurants – many of which are defying public orders to limit hours and stop serving alcohol. Olympic organizers also continue to insist that there is no connection between the Games and the record-high case numbers.

But a poll conducted by public broadcaster NHK between July 9 and 11 found that nearly two-thirds of Japanese weren’t persuaded that the Olympics should be happening. Many also feel that the event is being railroaded by the IOC, who makes around 73% of its annual budget off of selling broadcasting rights. That number could be even more dramatic this year as the spectator bans makes the events solely Olympics-for-TV audience and few, if any, Japanese will see any financial benefit.

Bloomberg Chart: As COVID-19 cases surge, Suga looks to extend state of emergency.

Despite concerns from the Japanese, in late May, IOC member Dick Pound publicly said that only Armageddon could stop the Games from taking place, adding later that the Olympics would go ahead even if Suga wanted to cancel.

“We are very well aware of the skepticism that a number of people have here in Japan. That such a discussion is becoming more heated and more emotional in the situation of a pandemic is something we have to understand.” – IOC President Thomas Bach

Instead of standing up to the IOC, Suga seems to have capitulated, and the health of his nation (and his political career) could pay the price. When then-prime minister Abe made the pitch for Tokyo to the IOC he had hoped to preside over the Games, but had to resign in Aug. 2020 because of a recurring health issue.

Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor of political science at Waseda University in Tokyo, said Abe still looms large in Japan’s decision to stick with the Olympics. “[Suga] couldn’t announce, for example, that he would rethink the Olympics, because he has to be loyal to Mr. Abe,” she said. Suga will need Abe’s support if he hopes to continue to lead Japan.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?

Suga could still have time to turn things around depending on how his government handles Japan’s latest COVID-19 outbreak and if he can speed up vaccinations. August opinion polling will come out as his government will be weighing when to hold the next general election and will be crucial to Suga’s future.

Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute, said there was still potential payoff from people overseas who will watch the Tokyo Games and may decide to visit Japan after the pandemic. “Restaurants and hotels that have renovated their facilities to welcome foreigners won’t be wasted,” he said. Olympic stadiums and arenas will also eventually have events with spectators. But that could all come too late for Suga.

Market Pulse: Traders’ high confidence that Suga will remain Japan’s prime minister seems to be related to the quickly approaching end date of Sept. 1. Pricing seemed to react to the bad polling numbers early in the week, bringing his price down to 89¢, but it was back up to 96¢ on Thursday. Since the market launched last month, Suga has spent most of the time in the high 90¢ range, so the drop into the 80s was big movement for this market.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Which of these 10 G20 leaders will leave office next?

The markets tracking the next G20 leader out and next Asia-Pacific leader out are less hopeful about the future for Japan’s prime minister. Of the G20 leaders, Suga has been most likely to leave office first for at least the last 90 days by a significant margin. He’s down slightly from a June 17 high of 65¢, but at 52¢ he’s still 38¢ higher than Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at 14¢ (more on him next).

The new market for next Asia-Pacific leader out, launched this week, also has Suga out ahead – entering the market at 42¢ and up to 48¢ as of end of day Thursday. These numbers indicate that market pricing has more to do with timing than confidence in Suga to win re-election. President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte shot up to 27¢ Thursday, and is the only other Asia-Pacific leader with double-digit trading. The next national election in the Philippines is scheduled for May 2022.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Photo: Isac Nóbrega / PR / Flickr / Palácio do Planalto /CC BY 2.0

Brazil’s “Anti-Corruption” President is Under Investigation for... Corruption

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity has plummeted ahead of next year’s national election amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the governments handling and recent corruption allegations. In the past few weeks, thousands of Brazilians have taken to the streets to protest Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic, which has killed more than 550,500 people in South America’s largest country.

Bolsonaro also faces calls for his impeachment from members of the government and an official investigation into “irregularities” in the government’s purchasing of vaccines. A poll released earlier this month showed that 54% of Brazilians support a legislative effort for his impeachment, while 42% oppose. Notably, those numbers have moved against the president since May polling that was essentially tied. Separate polling puts Bolsonaro’s approval rating around 25%.

Bolsonaro is a rightwing leader who was elected on an anti-government corruption platform, but it’s becoming more difficult for him to stake that claim. In the last year dozens of state-level officials were swept up in probes for skimming profits from emergency COVID-19 funds, and recent scandals have involved federal government officials who allegedly sought benefits from vaccine purchase contracts.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?

Still, on a local radio station this month, the president declared that his government’s greatest achievement to date was “two and a half years without corruption.” A statement more and more Brazilians are finding hard to believe.

“What is special about these corruption cases is that they are taking place in the midst of one of the greatest humanitarian tragedies in Brazilian history. It’s something so sordid that it may provoke such indignation in the population as to overcome apathy and bring about change,” said Bruno Brandao, executive director of Transparency International in Brazil.

Corruption, healthcare and security rank among the top issues for Brazilian voters consistently. And a majority of voters now believe that the president knew about the vaccine corruption within his health ministry and failed to act.

“Bolsonaro made honesty his key value. But there was nothing more dishonest than the administration of the Ministry of Health,” said Antonio Delfim Neto, a former minister of finance.

He has also routinely downplayed the severity of coronavirus and shunned calls to impose nationwide public health measures, insisting that these measures would do more harm to the economy. On top of that, the slow rollout of vaccines has increased tensions among the public against Bolsonaro.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?

In an effort to shore-up his support, Bolsonaro this week named a senator from the largest bloc in Congress as his new chief of staff. Sen. Ciro Nogueira, a leader of the center-right Progressives Party (PP), will become the prime minister’s closest minister. He’s the first heavyweight politician to enter Bolsonaro’s inner cabinet as he seeks allies to shield himself from his detractors.

Bolsonaro’s biggest political threat next year comes from former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva aka “Lula,” who until earlier this year wasn’t eligible to run for public office because of criminal corruption charges of his own. Recent polling shows Lula handily defeating Bolsonaro if the election were held today.

Lula’s new electoral rights come from a Brazilian Supreme Court judge who earlier this year annulled his criminal conviction stating that he should be tried in a federal court, not the lower court that found him guilty. This decision doesn’t mean Lula is innocent of the corruption charge, just that he will be tried again in the federal court. But in the meantime, it also means that his political rights have been restored, opening the door for him to once again run for public office. Good timing for Lula, bad for Bolsonaro.

Lula served as president between 2003 and 2011. He was convicted in 2017 of corruption and money laundering in the country’s biggest corruption investigation known as “Operation Car Wash.” He was released from prison in 2019, but still couldn’t run for political office. The former leader is still very popular with many of the country’s poor, who credit him for bringing millions out of poverty. Lula has maintained his innocence and said the case against him was politically motivated.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?

Lula is the only one of 10 potential 2022 candidates who outperformed Bolsonaro in recent polling. Fifty percent said they would likely vote for Lula, compared with 38% for Bolsonaro, while 44% said they would never vote for Lula, but 56% said the same thing about Bolsonaro. One takeaway from all this is that Brazilians are mostly fed up with Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and the corruption allegations are secondary, because they’re willing to take a second look at a former president whose connection to corruption has been proven.

Market Pulse: There’s a 44¢ gap between former President Luiz Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro in the market for who will be elected president of Brazil next year, and guess whose in the lead? That’s right – Lula, the one with the (annulled, for now) corruption conviction. Bolsonaro hit a market high of 42¢ on June 24, but quickly dropped to 30¢ and was at just 22¢ as of Thursday. Lula has remained high since the market opened in June, with a high of 70¢, and at 66¢ on Thursday. No other candidates in the race are near double-digits.

As mentioned above, Bolsonaro also sits high in the list of potential G20 leaders to leave office next. At 14¢, he’s well behind Japan’s Yoshihide Suga at 52¢, but ahead of President Joe Biden who was at 12¢ on Thursday.

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers: Pratik & Co. tackle a number of topics, including how to use political maps to make the most of your trades (and hopefully make you money), a breakdown on Georgia markets by a Georgia expert, and a debate about what makes AOC so popular.

Here’s a taste of what you’ll hear this week:

“The political gambling community is really special, it’s an untapped source of wisdom, and I very much hope that we can begin to forge and develop networks and communities. Because not only are we all going to ultimately make more money that way, we’re going to add value to the political conversation.”

Recently Launched Markets

Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sargent Marianique Santos / Public Domain.

New markets launched this week include: who will win Wyoming’s At-Large District; who will be the next leader of an Asia-Pacific country to leave office; Senate confirmation votes for Tana Lin to the US District Court in Western Washington; if House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will testify for the Jan. 6 Select Committee; margin of victory markets for OH-11 and OH-15.

We also have weekly recurring markets on President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.

Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Predictable Insights - 4.9.21

Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets.

Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt's market analysts.

It's Friday and here are the insights we've been keeping an eye on: First, radically different tales of two Florida politicians — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) stock is rising among his party’s base, while the same can’t be said for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Then we'll take a quick tour of elections around the globe. Two presidential elections happening this Sunday in Peru and Ecuador, and we'll dive into Chinese politics ahead of their 2022 party selection meeting.

This Week in the Markets

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking with attendees at the 2018 Student Action Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

DeSantis’ 60 Minutes Boost

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is making national headlines again this week that are no doubt helping to bolster his popularity among Republicans. Last Sunday, CBS’s 60 Minutes ran a scathing report about Florida’s vaccine rollout suggesting that DeSantis gave the Publix grocery store chain preferential treatment to distribute COVID-19 vaccines because they donated $100,000 to DeSantis’ re-election campaign.

The problem for 60 Minutes is that they didn’t have any evidence to back up this “pay-to-play” claim, and that once the full video of the DeSantis remarks that were used in the report were made public it was obvious to everyone (except CBS apparently) that their “deceptive editing” tactics were problematic. They had removed and edited parts of DeSantis’ response to questions from the 60 Minutes reporter at a press conference in which he explained the steps his government took to make the decision to partner with Publix.

Publix is the largest grocery store chain in Florida, with 831 locations, and is a known and trusted brand for Floridians – it was even ranked No. 12 on Fortune magazine’s list of 100 Best Companies to Work For in 2019. Their donation to DeSantis was also neither illegal nor unusual as many large companies donate to the political campaigns of both major parties.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Florida's Gov. DeSantis surpasses former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market.

60 Minutes received a lot of blowback from Republicans across the country, but also from Florida Democrats. Palm Beach County Mayor, Dave Kerner (D), released a statement on Monday saying the 60 Minutes report was “intentionally false” and that they “should be ashamed.” Jared Moskowitz, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, called the report “absolute malarky,” and added the context that the reason Publix was picked as a partner instead of pharmacy chains is because they simply weren’t ready. “The federal government delayed the federal pharmacy program and we yet again stepped up first to serve more seniors.”

Publix also released a statement:

“The irresponsible suggestion that there was a connection between campaign contributions made to Gov. DeSantis and our willingness to join other pharmacies in support of the state’s vaccine distribution efforts is absolutely false and offensive.”

Republicans generally feel that the mainstream media is biased against conservative politicians and their interests, and this will definitely serve to embolden those beliefs. The incident also serves to embolden DeSantis and his reputation amongst the grassroots Republican base nationwide.

DeSantis has been gaining national notoriety for what they see as his responsible and pragmatic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and aversion to statewide lockdowns and mandates. In February, attendees of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) named DeSantis as their favored candidate for the 2024 presidential nomination after former President Donald Trump. And now his stock is on the rise again.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

Market Pulse: DeSantis has been gaining momentum ever since he was added to the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market on Jan. 20, and this week he surpassed Trump for the first time. Trump has been the longtime favorite to win the nomination and has kept a solid lead against other potential candidates since former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, slipped from an on-and-off first place in January. DeSantis passed Trump on Wednesday, where Trump closed at 23¢ to DeSantis’ 24¢. On Thursday, Trump lost more ground with the market closing at Trump 21¢ and DeSantis 23¢.

We also opened a market this week for the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, and if DeSantis wants to run for president in 2024, he’ll need to win his re-election campaign in 2022 first. So far, he’s maintained around a 60¢ lead ahead of Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture, Nikki Fried, who is in second place at 17¢ as of close on Thursday. Fried has been widely tipped as the most likely Democrat to face DeSantis as she is also the only statewide elected member of her party.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) speaking with supporters at a "Liberty for Trump" event at the Graduate Hotel in Tempe, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY 2.0

Gaetz Isn’t Going Anywhere, At Least Not Quietly

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is scheduled to speak tonight at the Save America Summit in Miami, Florida, a conference hosted by the pro-Trump organization Women for America First. This will be the first time Gaetz will speak in front of a large live audience since reports surfaced last week that he’s been under investigation by the FBI since last summer over allegations that he had a sexual relationship with an underage girl and paid for her to travel with him across state lines – a potential violation of federal sex trafficking laws.

Since the story broke last week, the news cycle has seen a steady stream of scandalous Gaetz headlines. Including that the congressman would brag about his sexual escapades to his colleagues on the House floor, and that he had asked Trump for a preemptive pardon due to the investigation, which the former president denied. Gaetz has denied the sex trafficking allegations and maintains that the DOJ investigation is part of an extortion scheme against him and his family.

Market Pulse: In a market that has garnered more than 1.4 million shares traded, Gaetz’s odds of resigning before May 1 appear to be slim. The market hasn’t gone above 34¢ since the day it opened, and hit at a market low of 14¢ during trading on Thursday. Trader comments point out that May 1 is quickly approaching, which could be driving the market price down, but Gaetz’s story will likely be ongoing.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?

You Don't Have to be Vaccinated to Take This Trip Around the Globe

President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. Photo: Kremlin.ru / CC BY 4.0

Remember Monday? Here's Why We Added Two New Markets on China.

Like it or not, Chinese and US policies (and the politicians guiding them) impact each and every one of us – from the cost and availability of countless consumer products, to cyber security and technology concerns, and even information we have about the origins of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Still, for most Americans, the Chinese political system needs further explanation, especially if you want to trade in these markets.

The Chinese Communist Party is set to elect a new Central Committee at its next National Congress, which will take place in late 2022. Then, the new Central Committee will select the General Secretary who heads the committee’s elite 25-member Politburo and the uber-elite seven-member Standing Committee. This position has held “paramount leader” power over the party, the state and the military since the early 1990s when the General Secretary began serving concurrently as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chair of the Central Military Commission.

Xi Jinping became general secretary in 2012 and was selected for a second term in 2017. Since coming to power, Xi has consolidated his power and centralized policymaking authority under his control to an extent not seen perhaps since Mao Zedong. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete the two-term limit for the president, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as “paramount leader” indefinitely.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Interested in China-related markets? Check out these four options.

Now, remember the seven-member Standing Committee chosen from the 25-member Politburo? The “Politburo Standing Committee” (PBSC) is China’s top leadership group. We’re asking if Hu Chunhua will be selected as a member of this committee at the 2022 meeting. There is speculation, because of the reasons talked about above, that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term, but questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies on the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his true political power, and Hu is not known to be one of his allies.

Hu is also a rising political star in China and currently serves as the youngest member of the Politburo as well as at the high-ranking level of vice premier. It’s anticipated that Xi will attempt to block his selection, but if Hu is successful it could be a signal that Xi faces some intra-party conflict and might not hold as much power as people think.

Market Pulse: Traders are confident that Xi Jinping will remain in power as the General Secretary, with the market at 86¢ on Thursday. Because of Xi’s age (he will be 69 in 2022), he will have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aren’t appointed to a new term if they’re over 68 if he wants to stay in power. On Hu Chunhua, traders also give him high hopes of being selected to the PBSC, which is at 78¢. Both the Xi and Hu markets are seeing low trade volume, likely due to a lack of understanding about the Chinese political system.

Now We're Off to Sunny South America

Now we head to sunny South America, where the political futures of Ecuador and Peru could be decided this weekend.

In Ecuador, Andrés Arauz, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, finished first in a field of 16 candidates in the first round of voting in February, with 32.7% of the vote, but not enough to avoid a runoff.

After two tense weeks where the vote count was too close to determine who finished in second place, Ecuador’s electoral authority announced on Feb. 21 that Guillermo Lasso would face Arauz in the April 11 runoff. Under 33,000 votes separated Lasso’s 19.7% of the vote share from the third place finisher, indigenous leader Yaku Pérez with 19.4%. On Sunday, Arauz and Lasso will face off in the second round of the Ecuadorian presidential election.

Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?

Market Pulse: Arauz! Arauz! It’s always been Arauz. Well, that’s what traders have been saying over the last 90 days. Trading no lower than 69¢ and as high as 89¢, Arauz’s contract has been the favored outcome in the Ecuadorian presidential election. If there is some hope for Lasso, a 13¢ bump on March 31 saw his share price jump from 14¢ to 27¢ and finished Thursday at 26¢.

Over in Peru, voters will have more candidates to choose from in their presidential election on Sunday. If none of the candidates wins an absolute majority off votes in the first round, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on June 6. The election comes after an unprecedented period of political instability and widespread protests in late 2020 following the impeachment of former President Martín Vizcarra.

Market Prices at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Predict the margins of victory in both races this weekend.

The market for Peru’s presidential election consists of 13 candidates, including the top six based on a poll from March 31: Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth and Keiko Fujimori.

Read more about Peru's candidates in Wednesday's Alternate Forecasts email.

Market Pulse: Since launching in March, traders have placed their money on Lescano, but de Soto has been on the rise this week, closing Thursday only 11¢ behind, making it the tightest contest of the market. De Soto has seen his share price rise from 2¢ on April 2 to 32¢ as of close on Thursday. Note, at the time of writing Lescano led de Soto, 43¢ to 32¢.

Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?

In Case You Missed It!

Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

PredictIt markets making the news this week include:

Casino.org: “But PredictIt bettors feel the odds are long that Cuomo will depart Albany of his own accord. “Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?” has “Yes” shares trading at just six cents. Other markets on the embattled governor include whether he will be in office at the end of the year (“Yes,” 55 cents), and if he’ll be impeached before Sept. 1 (“Yes,” 22 cents).”

The Capitolist: “Prediction markets have Ron DeSantis as huge favorite over Nikki Fried.”

As well as: Blue Virginia and Florida Politics

Audible Insights

Star Spangled Gamblers podcast: Matt Gaetz’s Sex Scandal and the Derek Chauvin Murder Trial

Host Pratik Chougule was joined this week by regular podcast contributors, Eli Braden and Gaeten Dugas, to pay tribute to former host Alex “Keendawg,” and discus the complicated scandal encircling Rep. Matt Gaetz and the PredictIt market on whether he will resign.

SSG is a podcast about the hottest bets in political prediction markets and you can now listen to new episodes on the PredictIt homepage.

Here's a taste of what you'll hear this week:

“I had a lot of fun riding this [Gaetz market] up and down. It went from like 21 up to 30 like three separate times one day, and so I as just riding the waves.”

The Prediction Trade podcast: Master Class on the Masters & Betting Belarus

Affiliated with Luckbox Magazine, The Prediction Trade (formerly The Political Trade) looks at the markets on Belarusian President Alexander Lakashenko’s chances of remaining in office amid growing national discontent and scandals.

PredictIt traders will also soon be able to listen to this podcast straight on the website, stay tuned for the next site update. PredictIt homepage.

Here's a taste of what you'll hear this week:

“The question is, if Putin is put under massive pressure by the west, and I think he can be and he will be, he’ll throw Lukashenko under the bus at the first opportunity. That’s not something they’re going to go down for.”

Recently Launched Markets

Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sgt. Marianique Santos / Public Domain.

Markets on China’s Xi Jinping and Hu Chunhua (which we've talked about extensively in this email) launched this week on recommendations from PredictIt traders.

We also launched markets on: margin of victory in the presidential elections in Peru and Ecuador being held on Sunday, April 11; who will win the Florida gubernatorial election in 2022; and the number of Senate votes to confirm Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman by the end of May.

Finally, we are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org and be sure to include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Predictable Insights - 9.19.20

Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics, finance and prediction markets.

Each edition includes an update on the 2020 election cycle, highlights from PredictIt market analysts, and a curation of crowdsourced links from our community of more than 100,000 political forecasters.

Here are the real-money, prediction markets trending on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. This week: American Civics Exchange founder and OldBull.tv host Flip Pidot joined us for another awesome happy hour chat. Pidot gave us the low down on what might move the Biden-Trump needle, which markets hold the most value — and those that don't — plus, why you should "buy Democrat" in Texas' Electoral College market.

Have a Drink with Mo: Our PredictIt Virtual Happy Hour Series guest next week will be Mo Butler, the former chief of staff for Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ). To register for the happy hour, please click here.

We're continuing the competition for the best question, with a $10 credit going to the most thought-provoking trader.

Market prices updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Friday, September 18.

2020 US Presidential Race Update

Former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden speaking with attendees at the 2020 Iowa State Education Association (ISEA) Legislative Conference at the Sheraton West Des Moines Hotel. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

We had a real treat on the PredictIt Virtual Happy Hour Series, OldBull.tv host Flip Pidot joined us to go in depth on the markets and talk about how the prediction market universe is expanding in this election. It was such a great episode, that we’re going to let the videos do most of the talking. Here is the full video of the broadcast if you weren’t able to make it. And as always, if you have any guests you’d like to see or any suggestions for the happy hours, please email press@predictit.org.

Could Biden’s Lead Dip? PredictIt CEO John Phillips asked our guest what he was watching out for that could derail the Biden campaign from its position. Pidot said a poor debate performance could hurt the Biden campaign to the tune of a 20¢ swing in the markets, particularly if the debate performance is disastrous. He says he’s looking out for anything that could fit into a pre-existing narrative that the septuagenarian isn’t mentally up for the job, that the Trump campaign dump ad dollars into. Click here to hear the full conversation.

What is the most mispriced market on PredictIt? Pidot says it used to be the GDP market, and while he doesn’t like to say it is free money, well, he called it free money. Now, he says it’s Florida. Out of all the states, he thinks Trump’s vote-by-mail effort in this state could put the president in a position of strength come Nov. 3. Click here to get the full lowdown.

Market: Which party will win Florida in the 2020 presidential election?

Lightning Round

Texas Electoral College: “I’m buying Democrat. I wouldn’t buy it at 50¢, but I think it’s under priced at 28¢.” Flip's Verdict: Buy DEMOCRAT.

Pennsylvania Electoral College: “I wouldn’t buy 64¢/39¢...if I had to pick a side, I guess I’d choose Democrat...but if I had other options to put my money, I wouldn’t put it in Pennsylvania either way, it looks fairly priced.” Flip's Verdict: TAKE YOUR MONEY ELSEWHERE.

Market: Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election?

Arizona Electoral College: Arizona at 37¢ for Republicans, I think I’m buying that. I don’t feel super strongly about it, but to plant a flag, yeah, let’s buy Republican at 37¢.” Flip's Verdict: Buy REPUBLICAN.

North Carolina Senate: “This seems cheap for Tillis, right, 36¢? I mean, Cunningham is running ahead in the polling, but not by much. It wouldn’t take a big swing. [Cunningham] has shown he’s not afraid to come out and take a big swing on something like being an anti-vaxer, hard to tell if that’s going to show up in the polls if that’s actually going to hurt him. It’s something that Republicans will run on, try to get him to double down on.” Flip's Verdict: Buy TILLIS.

Market: Which party will win the US Senate election in North Carolina in 2020?

New to PredictIt? Flip offers sage advice from one trader to another on how to trade both the markets and the events, and the best ways to do both. Click here to learn more.

Trader Commentary

Other Market Commentary from the PredictIt Community

Set-Piece Battles Losing Luster: Professional gambler, sports betting journalist, and Stone Roses disciple Paul Krishnamurty (@spikeisland100) wonders whether such “set-piece” campaign TV moments carry much importance anymore in elections.

While Krishnamurty believes these events have diminishing returns in today’s political environment, he does note however that even if irrelevant to fundamentals or worse, factually indefensible, useless information can move markets, especially in our current digital media landscape:

“...I do not underestimate the power of Facebook and other social media. The vile Qanon cult has spread rapidly in various Western countries, especially since the start of lockdown. The public conversation is increasingly detached from reality. We know from various countries how these narratives can transform elections at the last minute.”

The interview is a great read that raises a lot of questions. For example, what if by asking people to make value judgments on the odds of certain political futures, prediction markets and other betting sites are revealing how much value-less information gets created and spun up as important, breaking news?

It would be a great argument for why political futures markets should exist: they can help show news consumers what narratives to pay attention to, what’s worth their limited time, and what’s valuable for informing their civic decisions. The rest is just noise. Ignore it. You’ll live longer.

@Michael_Cobb68 hits on this same point, in a tweet. The great Americans at Star Spangled Gamblers get it, too, as they correct misinformation around ballot counts.

Low Vol: According to some damn fine reporting from @Talophex, PredictIt’s fixed-income analyst, PredictIt bond markets continue to be resilient despite signs of weakness in higher risk sectors.

Holy Cow! When it comes to talking prediction markets, @OldBullTV was everywhere this week. Besides managing his own network, and joining us for a beer and some ballot bull, he even provided for the recent New Hampshire Democratic gubernatorial primary what could be the first play-by-play real-time commentary of a margin of victory market via tweet. You sir are the Harry Caray of the political forecasting league.

State of the 2020 Election in Two Charts:

Source: @jipkin

Crowdsourced

Crowds are information-aggregation machines. Here are some disparate nuggets of wisdom we found informative from the PredictIt crowd this week:

Shamans to the Election Gods — “Good energies to Mr. Donald Trump,” said the master shaman Pablo Torres, carrying the snake on one of his shoulders after squirting a strange liquid from his mouth onto the image of Trump. “Why? Because he is deserving, he needs good energies, good vibes from his followers,” he said. “We are supporters of the gentleman. He will win; he is a winner.” Starting to think we are wired for this prediction business...

Google Shall Know Our Velocity — “Google explained how it predicts your travel time. In a fascinating blog post, the company outlined how it mixes aggregate location data with DeepMind prediction algorithms to get a +97 percent accuracy rating — and even claims it can predict whether you'll be affected by a slowdown that hasn't even started yet.”

Digital Media Literacy — Acclaimed author, co-founder of the News Co/Lab, and professor of digital media literacy at ASU, Dan Gillmor just launched a free course on media literacy designed to teach adults to recognize misinformation. We’re in an age of information overload. This course will teach you how media literacy principles can help you make sense of your digital media environment. Participants will learn how to: (1) spot misinformation; (2) assess claims and sources; (3) explain how the news media operate; and (4) use and create media to participate in their communities.

Submit your comments and links for this section via Twitter by tagging @PredictIt and the hashtag #crowdsourced with your submission. If we select your comment for the newsletter, you get a $10 credit!

In Case You Missed It!

PredictIt markets were mentioned often in the news this week, including by: Fox News (with PredictIt’s Brandi Travis), Playusa.com, Florida Politics, The Street, Finanza Operativa, The Wall Street Journal, Casino.org and Election Profit Makers.

This Week's Quotable — from the a guest column in Florida’s Longboat Key News titled: “50 Bucks Says Biden Wins Florida”:

“Political betting is one of the fastest growing betting markets in the world. As of right now, billions of dollars will be wagered on the coming 2020 presidential election.” — @blakefleet

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Predictable Insights - 8.21.20

Here are the real-money, prediction markets trending on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. This week we hosted VICE News' Liz Landers for another great happy hour chat. Landers gave traders the skinny on the Democratic National Convention and her take on this fall's big showdown between Biden and Trump.

Market prices updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Friday, August 21.

2020 US Presidential Race Update

Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Photo: Official Photos - White House and Senate

Democratic National Convention: It was an unusual Democratic National Convention. Perhaps a better descriptor than convention would have been a the Democratic National Livestream. But regardless of the circumstances, Democrats rolled out the heavy hitters of their party, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) appearing to quell the fears of the left, and former President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama serving to go after President Donald Trump, and highlight their “friend” and “brother,” former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden spoke last night, and the reviews were good, even from seemingly unlikely sources.

Fox News’ Chris Wallace said, "Remember, Donald Trump has been talking for months about Joe Biden as [being] mentally shot, a captive of the left," Wallace said during Fox News special coverage of the Democratic National Convention. "And yes, Biden was reading from the teleprompter and a prepared speech, but I thought that he blew a hole, a big hole, in that characterization."

Will the markets move today based on this reaction? Stay tuned to find out.

ICYMI, Don’t Worry, We Taped It: We hosted Liz Landers, VICE News’ DC correspondent, on our virtual happy hour series this week. Liz discussed some reporting nuggets that might be very helpful in making your decisions on key markets. Click here to see the discussion in full.

Swamp News: No, we're not talking about Washington, DC this time. Head a little farther south and, in Florida, there's a ballot measure that could enfranchise 1.4 million felons. VICE has followed this story over the past year and chatted with us about it. With market odds getting closer and closer, how the court decides could swing the election in this very important swing state.

Market: Which party will win Florida in the 2020 presidential election?

Election Overtime: Anxieties amongst Americans across the political spectrum are understandably high, as many begin to navigate life beyond lockdowns, again. While it's still more than two months away, the election and logistics of voting loom large, too. As Congress returns to session tomorrow for a fight over the future of the United States Postal Service, some even wonder if enough votes will be cast and counted in time to declare a winner on Election Night. We spoke about the issue with Landers (who shared a similar forecast).

Next week: PredictIt will ask its crowd when they expect to know the 46th president.

Groundhog's Day 2020? Landers recently visited Wisconsin to talk to voters about Biden’s vice presidential pick in Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). But as far as reporters in the field go, she's not in the majority. Reporters across the country have been grounded in the wake of COVID-19. Could this alter the way news organizations understand the electorate? Could it create a repeat of 2016? Democrats are holding strong in the market for which party will win the presidency, but as we close in on Nov. 3, what information is being missed? We talked to Landers about whether a Trump win is possible.

Market: Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?

Next PredictIt Happy Hour: Next week, join us for a PredictIt Virtual Happy Hour with CNN commentators Maria Cardona and Alice Stewart as they look back at the DNC and discuss the happenings of the RNC. We’re very excited to have this duo on considering their very busy schedules. They just launched a new podcast, "Hot Mics from Left to Right," where they discuss what they didn’t have time to get to air, but is a much-needed conversation at an unprecedented time of partisanship and politics. Alice and Maria have a unique ability to bring hot topics of conversation to the fore, with respect, civility and intellectual honesty. Register here.

Other Market Commentary from the PredictIt Community

To kick off the Democratic National Convention this week, Election Whisperer Rachel Bitecofer hosted an all-star lineup of campaign strategists, operatives and activists. Guests included Jessica Post (president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee), Ezra Levin (co-founder and co-executive director of Indivisible), Shannon Watts (founder of Moms Demand Action) and Guy Cecil (chair of Priorities USA). Check out the full show here.

The Political Trade dropped a new episode titled "Mark Vargas: Breaking Blago & Presidential Pardons." Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called “mystery man” who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump’s commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s 14-year prison sentence. But that’s not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone’s recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort that you don’t want to miss!

The Art of the Possible invited Kathy Peach, the head of the Centre for Collective Intelligence Design at Nesta (UK), on the show to discuss, among other things, why people are either good or bad at predicting, why women don’t bet more and why prediction markets could replace insurance one day.

We recently mentioned a new newsletter that’s dedicated to trading in political prediction markets joining the fray — The Voting Odds. If you have enjoyed the tips in the newsletter, you’ll love the podcast, too!

State of the 2020 Elections in Two Graphics:

Source: PredictIt.org

Source: http://electiondice.com/

Crowdsourced

Crowds are information-aggregation machines. Here are some disparate nuggets of wisdom we found informative from the PredictIt crowd this week:

Old Man Wisdom — “The usual touchstone, whether that which someone asserts is merely his persuasion — or at least his subjective conviction, that is, his firm belief — is betting. It often happens that someone propounds his views with such positive and uncompromising assurance that he seems to have entirely set aside all thought of possible error. A bet disconcerts him. Sometimes it turns out that he has a conviction which can be estimated at a value of one ducat, but not of ten. For he is very willing to venture one ducat, but when it is a question of ten he becomes aware, as he had not previously been, that it may very well be that he is in error. If, in a given case, we represent ourselves as staking the happiness of our whole life, the triumphant tone of our judgment is greatly abated; we become extremely diffident, and discover for the first time that our belief does not reach so far. Thus pragmatic belief always exists in some specific degree, which, according to differences in the interests at stake, may be large or may be small.” — Immanuel Kant, former PredictIt trader

A Defense of Election Forecasting Models — "Critical thinking and analysis of information is as important as learning how to read or do basic arithmetic. It is especially important in the context of elections where pre-existing biases are deeply embedded in what information we expose to ourselves, how that information is presented to us, and how receptive we are to it. All modelers strive to be right, but ultimately, we hope the public will interpret our data with a skeptical eye and use it to refine — not define — their own viewpoints." — Scott Tranter, UVA Center for Politics

Prediction of the Week — Some political forecasters, as early as Dec. 2018, raised the contrarian proposition that the online fundraising campaign “We Build The Wall,” which was spearheaded by Steve Bannon, President Trump’s former 2016 campaign manager, could ultimately end up in a criminal lawsuit. That bold prediction appears to have paid off this week.

Submit your comments and links for this section via Twitter by tagging @PredictIt and the hashtag #crowdsourced with your submission. If we select your comment for the newsletter, you get a $10 credit!

In Case You Missed It!

PHOTO: THE EPOCH TIMES/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

PredictIt markets were mentioned often in the news this week, including by: CNN Business, National Review, MarketWatch, DraftKings (1 and 2), Reason Magazine, FintechZoom, Casino.org (1 and 2) and EconoTimes.

This Week's Quotable — from the EconoTimes’ article: “Will Trump or Biden win the US election? This could be a better predictor than the polls”:

"We know that prediction market prices match the underlying probabilities because empirical and lab research has looked at thousands of such market predictions, grouped all with a price of $0.4 together, and found that the predicted event underlying the asset, for example, the election of a particular candidate, did indeed occur in 40 percent of these cases. Similarly, for prices of $0.5, the underlying event occurred in 50 percent of cases, and so on. The prices are well-calibrated as probability forecasts."

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Predictable Insights - 8.14.20

Here are the real-money, prediction markets trending on PredictIt, the stock market for politics. This week we look at how Biden picked his running mate, the mail-in debate, how each vote could impact the Electoral College winner and Republican strategy in a Georgia Senate race.

Market prices updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Friday, August 14.

2020 US Presidential Race Update

Former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden speaking with supporters at a community event at the Best Western Regency Inn in Marshalltown, Iowa. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

Vying for Veep: The New York Times writes about how presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden picked Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate, and how you were wrong if you thought Sen. Tammy Duckworth (I-IL) had a chance in the end. If you were trading in PredictIt’s Democratic vice presidential nominee market on Tuesday, the day of the announcement, you would have already known that. More importantly, you would have been party to the single biggest day of trading in one market on PredictIt since it launched in 2014. The new record set on Aug. 11, 2020 — 8,427,156 shares traded in the #BidenVP nominee market — trumped the old record set on July 14, 2016 — 3,245,252 shares traded in the #TrumpVP nominee market.

Some traders are happier than others with the result: "Let's see how much money I made on PredictIt." — cartoonist Scott Adams, admittedly gloating about his "finest prediction."

Mail-In Voting: “President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was blocking Democrats’ effort to include funds for the US Postal Service and election infrastructure in a new coronavirus relief bill, a bid to block more Americans from voting by mail during the pandemic,” Reuters writes. How does this end? Will it escalate further?

A Federal judge is requiring the Trump campaign to provide evidence of mail-in voter fraud in Pennsylvania. “The case is one of the boldest attempts by the Trump campaign in court to curtail mail-in voting in the 2020 election. The Trump campaign had claimed mail-in voting could prompt questions about the accuracy of election results and ultimately chaos, according to the court record," CNN writes. The judge presiding over the case was appointed by the president and a hearing about the evidence is set for late September.

Perhaps this existential election uncertainty is one factor weighing on PredictIt’s comparatively conservative forecast of 60 percent for Biden winning the election?

Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus: “Nearly 30 million workers have lost $600 in enhanced weekly unemployment benefits that have kept much of the economy afloat these past four months during the coronavirus pandemic, as top lawmakers in Congress and the White House remain at an impasse over how and whether to extend the benefits,” The Washington Post writes. How will the Senate election markets react if this continues? Send us any trends you see to markets@predictit.org.

Diving Deeper: The Economist takes a look at how each vote could turn the outcome in the Electoral College. They write, “The Economist used its presidential-election-forecasting model — which simulates the election 20,000 times a day — to quantify the system’s biases. Using each forecast for every state we determined the chance that any given voter in a particular state casts the decisive ballot in November. That figure is the product of two probabilities: whether a single state is likely to edge a candidate over 270 Electoral College votes; and whether that state is won by a single voter.” Read more here.

Tweet Wars: The race for the Georgia Senate seat currently held by Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) is heating up. First, WNBA players wore “Vote Warnock” shirts supporting Loeffler’s opponent, Rev. Raphael Warnock (D). The catch? Loeffler is a co-owner of the Atlanta Dream, a women's professional basketball team. But Loeffler will have to get to the race against Warnock first, and she’s trying to get there through Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA). The problem? She’s criticizing him for supporting Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) in the 2012 election when she and her husband together gave $1.5 million to his campaign.

The question is, have Republicans provided Warnock with an opening to win a previously red Georgia Senate seat? Paul Kane writes more on the topic. Where is your money in this race?

Other Market Commentary from the PredictIt Community

The Map Room: The latest episode of The Map Room is out on Old Bull TV! This week, Eric Cunningham (@decunningham2), Nick Morris (@TossupReport) and Jared Stone (@JStonePolitics) discuss North Carolina, Eric’s home state. This southern state is diverse, rapidly growing and very competitive politically. The hosts explain all you need to know about the basics of North Carolina politics: the traditional east-west divide, the modern urban/rural split and the presence of many large cities spread throughout the state.

Experts & Whales: Trader @iSavage_PI is more politically astute than James Carville and The Mooch... at least when it comes to predicting the Democratic vice presidential nominee. However, not all traders are so lucky though... apparently a whale in the Democratic vice presidential market on PredictIt as well as on UK betting sites, got outfished.

Markey & Millennials: Besides the polls showing the race tightening, Star Spangled Gamblers’ Keendawg gives another contrarian but thoughtful factor to consider when you’re predicting whether Joe Kennedy can beat Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary: “If this turns into a mail-in election, do young people who would vote for Kennedy even know how to use the Postal Service?”

OutSilver’d: With FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver releasing his new 2020 election forecasting model this week, @jipkin takes a look at the old Silver model: “For fun, I scored @538's final 2016 model using the scoring rules for my 2020 Prediction Contests. The result? -2801.9 points. (utterly dismal, but perhaps least bad of competition?) It got killed on margins by underestimating Trump in red states and Clinton in blue states.” Another criticism of Silver’s methodology came from PredictWise’s David Rothschild on the most recent episode of The Political Trade: “I like to think of him as a publisher, an owner of a product, which is a poll-based secret formula — and that’s what he sells. And so he is loyal to his product, and that’s what clogs all of his judgment.”

Picture Perfect: And now, our favorite tweet of the week from trader AG123, expressing the power of market incentives: “I'm at the stage of @predictit trading where I am literally watching someone draw pictures of possible VP picks looking for insight. Kill me please.”

State of the 2020 Presidential Election in One Chart:

Source: Bloomberg

Crowdsourced

Crowds are information-aggregation machines. Here are some disparate nuggets of wisdom we found informative from the PredictIt crowd this week:

Dubious Sources — On the morning of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s expected running mate announcement, someone posing as the Digital Director for Dr. Jill Biden slyly changed Sen. Duckworth’s Wikipedia page, presumably in an attempt to signal her imminent selection as the vice presidential nominee. This disinformation briefly had a tangible impact on Duckworth’s Democratic vice presidential market pricing — with more than 184,000 shares trading on the fake news. A reminder to all traders (and news consumers in general) to check your sources.

Lies^10=Truth — Words of caution from a survey article titled “Facts & Myths about Misperceptions” about the news you choose to consume and share: “Even exposure to the ill-defined term “fake news” and claims about its prevalence can be harmful. In an experimental study among respondents from Mechanical Turk, Van Duyn and Collier (2019) find that when people are exposed to tweets containing the term “fake news,” they become less able to discern real from fraudulent news stories. Similarly, Clayton et al. (2019) find that participants from Mechanical Turk who are exposed to a general warning about the prevalence of misleading information on social media then tend to rate headlines from both legitimate and untrustworthy news sources as less accurate, suggesting that the warning causes an indiscriminate form of skepticism.”

Prediction of the Week — Trump responding to Biden choosing Harris as his running mate: "She was my number one draft pick and we'll see how she works out. She did very, very poorly in the primaries as you know. She was expected to do well and she ended up right around 2 percent."

Submit your comments and links for this section via Twitter by tagging @PredictIt and the hashtag #crowdsourced with your submission. If we select your comment for the newsletter, you get a $10 credit!

In Case You Missed It!

PHOTO: THE EPOCH TIMES/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

PredictIt markets were mentioned often in the news this week, including by: Yahoo! News, New York Times, Barron's, Marker, ValueWalk, Seeking Alpha, Investing, The Daily Wire, Hot Air, MI Bets, Election Central, Casino.org (1, 2 and 3), Ahora Mismo, Le Temps, DraftKings, US Bets, UpNewsInfo, Extra Newsfeed and Mediaite.

This Week's Quotable — from Yahoo! Finance article “Markets Brace for U.S. Election Volatility. Well, Some of Them”:

“Trump has been losing ground in opinion polls and his chance to remain in the White House was around 43 percent, according to forecasting site PredictIt.org, down from a 2020 high of 57 percent in late February.”

We are always crowdsourcing new market ideas from traders. Send ideas to markets@predictit.org. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets!

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Draft Market Schedule - Week of 6.15.20

Here’s a draft schedule of the political futures market launches planned this week. Note -- this schedule is subject to change.

Featured Markets -- Congressional DEM primaries: NY-09, NY-15, NY-17 and NY-24; Congressional GOP primaries: NY-27 and VA-02; 2020 DEMS “Clean Sweep”; LA DNOM primary MOV and turnout; KY DEM/GOP Sen primary MOVs; AOC primary MOV (NY-14); Engel primary MOV (NY-16).

We are always crowd-sourcing new market ideas from traders. Feel free to add comments and suggestions to this post or send ideas to markets@predictit.org. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets! 

Team @PredictIt

[predict-it]

Draft Market Schedule - Week of 5.18.20

Here’s a draft schedule of the political futures market launches planned this week. Note -- this schedule is subject to change.

Question for the PI Crowd: Which names should be added to the Democratic vice presidential nominee market?

Please provide feedback @PredictIt. 

Featured Markets -- CA-25 winner; Trump to win any states in 2020 that he did not win in 2016; GOP convention held at Spectrum Center; Next Trump rally; HI DEM primary MOV; MT and NC gubernatorial races. 

Recurring Markets

Twitter: @realDonaldTrump (W); @whitehouse (Th); @potus (F)

Polling: RCP Trump vs Biden (T) 538 Trump approval (W)

Added Contracts -- 3x TBD names to the Democratic vice presidential nominee market; CO and ME-02 to the ‘tipping point’ jurisdiction market; John Monds and Jim Gray to the Libertarian presidential nominee market. 

Closing Soon -- Last week’s polling and Twitter markets; OR DEM presidential primary voter turnout, margin of victory and winner markets.

We are always crowd-sourcing new market ideas from traders. Feel free to add comments and suggestions to this post or send ideas to markets@predictit.org. Be sure and include a legitimate resolution source.

Thanks for following the markets! 

Team @PredictIt

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The FCC Passes Net Neutrality Repeal Vote

NOTE: This market resolves yes under the market’s rules only if the FCC publishes its Final Rule by the end of 2017, with the effect of classifying wired and/or wireless broadband internet access service (or the telecommunications component service thereof) as an information service, or otherwise nullifying its previous classification as a telecommunications service under Title II of the Telecommunications Act of 1996.

Today, the Federal Communications Commission voted for repealing net neutrality. The rules established in 2015 that required internet service providers to "treat all web traffic equally.” While there had been increasing pressure from outside net neutrality advocates to abandon their efforts, it was rightly assumed the FCC would pass the measure today on a Republican party-line 3-2 vote.  

Given the impending market year-end deadline, predictions on repeal have been volatile for months. Some traders speculated that the FCC wouldn't get to it, if at all, until 2018. However, as stories began bubbling up in mid-November that the FCC would address the issue sooner than later, PredictIt traders slowly bid up the price. Despite a dip early this week, likely due to a letter submitted on Monday by a group of “internet creators” asking Congress to intervene, the trend remained clear. 

Here’s the 90-day view:

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Webinar with Paul Kane

Reporter Paul Kane from the Washington Post joins PredictIt to discuss his thoughts on the upcoming congressional races and other major political events. Kane specializes in congressional coverage, and has followed the inside politics of Congress for many years. In this webinar, he provides some input regarding the lesser known Senate and House elections, as well as the politics of congressional leadership and legislation.

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Meet Emma Grundhauser, PredictIt’s Events Intern!

PI: Thank you for taking the time to talk with us, Emma! We hope you can provide some detail on what you do for PredictIt and how it works. To start off, can you tell us a little about your background?

EG: I’m a rising senior in the George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs, where I’m studying Political Communication. I’ve interned previously with a handful of campaign organizations and think tanks.

PI: What made you want to first get involved in PredictIt?

EG: When I heard about PredictIt, I was excited about the research applications of political prediction markets. We hear about polling all the time, but I was taken aback when I heard about the accuracy of prediction markets.

PI: What is your favorite thing about working for PredictIt?

EG: I love to see how PredictIt continues to take off and grow- it’s rewarding to see your work have an immediate impact.

PI: What kind of work goes into events planning?

EG: A lot! Aside from contacting venues and vendors and planning out what’s going to happen during an event, we do a lot of research into what our traders like, what’s worked and what hasn’t, and finding special guests for our web and in-person events.

PI: Could you tell us about some recent events that you have helped plan?

EG: We’ve been holding a lot of Web-based events lately, like our Facebook Live with Paul Kane of the Washington Post, where we got some really great insight into our congressional politics from one of the top reporters in the field. We also just hosted a fascinating webinar with Michael Abramowicz, who is a professor of law and also an expert on prediction markets. It was really great, he talked about how prediction markets can help improve society from public policy solutions to private corporations.

PI: What do you think are the benefits of holding these events for PredictIt?

EG: I love holding Web events in particular because traders from all over the country get the chance to hear from experts in the field, both political experts and prediction markets. All of our traders learn so much from the presentations and it just makes the PredictIt experience that much more enriching.

PI: What is a fun fact about you that your co-workers don’t know?

EG: I was a competitive alpine skier in high school.

PI: Now that the conventions are finally coming up, who do you think will win the 2016 Presidential Election?

EG: Hillary all the way!

PI: What is your favorite thing about working in DC?

EG: There’s always something fun going on, there’s no excuse for boredom in this town.

PI: What is your longshot prediction for the rest of this election season?

EG: I think we’ve got a decent chance of seeing a third party at a Presidential debate.

PI: And finally, if you had to switch lives with any 2016 presidential candidate, who would it be and why?

EG: Martin O’Malley, so that I could bring joy to people with nothing but my voice and my guitar.

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Professor Michael Abramowicz, author of the book Predictocracy, Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, discusses with PredictIt his insights on policy-based prediction markets. Professor Abramowicz teaches at The George Washington University Law School, and his research has been published in several law reviews across the country. 

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Meet John Johnson, PredictIt’s Research Fellow!

PI: Thank you for taking the time to talk with us, John! We’re hoping you can shed some light on how your work helps PredictIt function. Starting off, what is your background?

JJ: I’m former military now pursuing an MA in American Government at Georgetown University.

PI: What made you want to get involved in PredictIt?

JJ: When I started graduate school I wanted to improve my quantitative skill set, so I tailored some of my coursework and research toward that end. PredictIt allows me to utilize these techniques in a real-world setting.

PI: What is your favorite thing about working for PredictIt?

JJ: What we’re doing here is fascinating on so many levels. I think one of my favorite things about PredictIt is that, because the team is small, one is capable of obtaining experience in a wide range of roles.

PI: What kind of research do you do for your work?

JJ: Prior to Chris coming on, I filled in for our previous data analyst, executing quantitative analyses for the Analysis page.

           Now that he’s here, I try to find answers to bigger questions by connecting markets to one another. For instance, our traders project that there will be a divided Congress after this election with the GOP losing the Senate. We can use the individual senate election markets to determine which states the Democratic Party is likely to pick up on their way to a Senate majority.

           More recently I’ve been focused on working with Andreas Katsouris, Aristotle's Senior VP of Global Services, and Jordan Gladstone, our Manager for Academic Partnerships, to develop our data-sharing program by recruiting researchers and encouraging them to use our data in their research and teaching.

PI: What is a fun fact about you that your co-workers don’t know?

JJ:  I have an obsession with hardcore hip-hop and bad horror movies.

PI: Now that the conventions are finally coming up, who do you think will win the 2016 Presidential Election?

JJ: I think Hillary is likely to win. She’s been the foregone conclusion since 2014. However, Donald Trump is not someone to be taken lightly, particularly if Hillary is unable to put scandals to rest and find her message.

PI: What is your favorite thing about working in DC?

JJ: It’s hard to choose. I love the cultural melting pot. I am always amazed that I can walk four block and hear five different languages. Also, being at the seat of the most powerful government known to man. It’s awesome in the truest sense of the word.

PI: What is your least favorite thing about DC?

JJ: Metro railcars that lack air conditioning.

PI: What is your longshot prediction for the rest of this election season?

JJ: The republican in me would love to see a brokered GOP convention in Cleveland. Without it, the GOP’s long term viability is threatened.

PI: Lastly, if you had to switch lives with any 2016 presidential candidate, who would it be and why?

JJ: Gary Johnson. I'm curious about the perspective of a third party nominee in a year when the two major party nominees are so disliked.

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Webinar with Election Forecasters, Benchmark Politics and Tyler Pedigo

Anthony Reed of Benchmark Politics and election forecaster, Tyler Pedigo, joined PredictIt to discuss their forecasting models, look back on their primary predictions, and share their thoughts on the 2016 election. Anthony Reed is a professional statistician with extensive prediction experience, and entered into election predictions with his founding of Benchmark Politics in 2016. Benchmark Politics uses demographic data to make their forecasts, and has been one of the most accurate forecasters throughout the election. Visit Benchmark Politics at www.benchmarkpolitics.com, and follow them on Twitter @benchmarkpol.

Tyler Pedigo is a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University, studying International Relations and International Economics. Mr. Pedigo forecasts elections by using Facebook and Google Trends as his sources. Visit Mr. Pedigo’s website at www.tylerpedigo.com, and follow him on Twitter @TylerPedigoKY.

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Webinar with Dr. Michelle Egan on Brexit

Watch our discussion with Dr. Michelle Egan on Brexit, and what traders need to know ahead of Thursday's referendum. Dr. Egan is a professor at American University and teaches several classes on Europe, including The European Union, International Relations of Europe, Relations of West European Nations, and Comparative European Politics. She joins us to discuss the background of the EU referendum, and what outcomes we can expect.

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Webinar featuring David Rothschild 

Check out our discussion with economist Dr. David Rothschild on why prediction markets are so valuable, especially when it comes to elections. Dr. Rothschild speaks in detail about his insights into the 2016 election, and highlights the differences between polling and prediction markets.

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Webinar with David Rothschild

Prediction market expert and PredictWise founder, Dr. David Rothschild, joined PredictIt traders to discuss the ins and outs of forecasting elections. PredictWise is an independent research project that uses prediction market data as well as bookie odds plus polling data to generate implied odds for predictions. 

Dr. Rothschild also writes extensively on polling, prediction markets, social media and online data, and predictions of upcoming events. When asked why prediction markets are so valuable, Dr. Rothschild said, “They provide market data on demands that we care about in politics.” 

Dr. Rothschild predicted 50 of 51 Electoral College outcomes of 2012. What does he foresee happening in November?

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Webinar with Prediction Market Expert, Dr. Emile Servan-Schreiber

One of the world's top experts in prediction markets and founder of Hypermind, Dr. Emile Servan-Schreiber, joined PredictIt to discuss the accuracy and significance of prediction markets and collective intelligence.

Dr. Servan-Schreiber dives into why markets, like PredictIt, have the ability to forecast the future by pooling the speculation of many. He goes into the types of individuals predictions markets attract and why diversity and independent thinking is required for accuracy. He also discusses why the possibility of loss promotes more objective and less passionate thinking, enhancing the quality of the opinions that can be aggregated.

To learn more about the methodology behind prediction markets from one of the industry’s best, list to this enlightening webinar.