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Observations re: wager an entire season of MLB
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/observations-re-wager-an-entire-season-of-mlb/
Observations re: wager an entire season of MLB
I view the MLB as a test of how far you have come around to being a solid gambler:) There is nothing like 5 months of wagering on baseball every day to test how far long you have come to be a success gambler. Most gamblers go into their routine of acting like losing is not one of the potential outcomes:)
Unless you are playing with loaded dice, and are wagering on events that have a small edge, variance will always come into play.
MLB is the best testing grounds to see if you are up for the challenge. Based upon my experience most gamblers not only are not up for the challenge, some do not know that a challenge even exists.
So you have the psychological test, the money management test, the education of becoming one with variance (embrace the uncertainty)
As there is no way I know of to wager eliminating all risk. Sure you can do a few things to lower variance, but only a small amount.
The way to wager eliminates some of the risks. First, you set aside a pool of money that if things go sideways and you lose it all, it will only be an intellectual exercise rather then panic time.
2nd. Once you get your bankroll established, you then set a % number for bet sizing. So if you have a bankroll of 20,000 and you assess your risk tolerance and pick 1% as the wagering amount. You would then wager $200.00 a game. That means your bankroll will fluctuate as well your betting amount.
1% is a reasonable number to use. The higher the % the greater the variance, and chances of losing it all. I have tried 3% and even for me the swings were too large. 2% still has very high swings, 1 or 1.5 % are both good numbers for you to consider.
Most people that wager, have no method, but only wager an amount based upon how they feel about the game itself, and in some instances increase the size of their wager to get even (plunging)
If you cannot harness that desire, you cannot begin to think about wagering on anything.
I will also go as far to say, if you do not have a set betting method, or feel it is too much trouble, then do not even begin this journey. As I will tell you, you can be the very best handicapper and if you do not get a handle on the above, you have a very high chance of going broke. Wagering to me is a game in and of itself. So the way I approach is from a game theory standpoint. And I have a rule that I do not wager unless I feel I have the best of it. (I have always said I do not need to have the best of it, but I do need to think I have the best of it)
I did not always approach things that way, years ago before I decided to get rid of my bad habits, I did about everything most gamblers did. However I am an analytical type, and eventually I worked out what works for me to harness my bad habits. Sure I have slipped from time to time over the years, but the more gambling I do, the more disciplined I become.
Betting just to bet can get very expensive in the long haul. Expensive enough to remove all of your EV you have fought so hard to obtain.
I had a good friend of mine that became very successful at some of the highest stakes poker games in the world. Back in my college days we went together to many local games around the Univ of Ill area. Then as time passed I lost track of him. But, when I moved to Vegas over 20 years ago, I walked into the Bellagio poker room, and heard someone yell out my name.
I looked and there he was the person I knew back in my college days. He was sitting at the 2,000/4000 table with Brunson , Reese, and the other cast of high stakes poker players.
We went out to lunch and I asked him how does he handle variance? At 2000/4000 limit poker, 30 big bets is $120,000. 100 big bets $400,000. And he was playing some of the best in the world:)
His answer amused me, “when you are as good as me, you do not need to be concerned with variance”
I always knew from the past, he had little respect for variance, but on the other hand , had one of the best minds for poker I have seen. So who knows:)
The reason I am writing this is whenever you go through a tough patch, it should be a learning experience, not a traumatic experience that you lose sleep over, get mad, or triggers a tilt factor in you.
I always approach wagering as an intellectual exercise. At the poker table I could go through 3 racks, and you would never know I was losing. This happened in an Omaha 8 game I was in. I got hand after hand, and lost every one of them. The person next to me who at the time was with 2+2 that I became friends with, looked at me and asked “when you just get up and quit for the day”?
My reply was , what is the difference if your downswing occurs in hours or months. As long as I am playing good and the game is good, my approach is to just weather the storm. I can do that because I am not superstitious, as some players are. He of course understood what I was saying, he replied that he tends to get mad after 2 racks. so he quits at that point.
So you have to know your own limitations., and either work on them, or abide by rules you set so they do not cost you money.
I played professional poker for 20 years here in Vegas. I played 6 days a week, for 6 to 20 hrs. at a time. I always kept detailed spreadsheets as to each game I played in broken down by game played, the betting structure of the game,. By the time I stopped playing, I had detailed records as to top bottom swings for each category, my net profit, and expected EV. I found out there were some games that I had no edge in, some games where the variance made it just oo tough to consider playing in them. Badugi was one of the games that I decided had too high
But other games have for me a very low variance, Omaha 8 was my game of choice. 2 to 7 triple draw another game of choice. Stud hi low, either any any or 8 or better another. I liked any any because most players had no idea the key strategies behind playing it. It plays completely different the 8 or better.
All carries over to sports betting. And MLB is the toughest grind of them all.
As a said a testing ground:)
If you wish to join us for free up to the beginning of NCAA FB, send an email to [email protected]. I have talked previously why I am making these picks free for most of the MLB season.
Once I get your email I will add you to the email list, and also send you an invite to both discord channels. Discord has all the wagering history since I started with my online site many years ago.
Try to join us if only for the educational posts, and conversations on discord.
RickJ
RickJ Sports Plays
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord:
RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes
Text
Observations re: wager an entire season of MLB
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/observations-re-wager-an-entire-season-of-mlb/
Observations re: wager an entire season of MLB
I view the MLB as a test of how far you have come around to being a solid gambler:) There is nothing like 5 months of wagering on baseball every day to test how far long you have come to be a success gambler. Most gamblers go into their routine of acting like losing is not one of the potential outcomes:)
Unless you are playing with loaded dice, and are wagering on events that have a small edge, variance will always come into play.
MLB is the best testing grounds to see if you are up for the challenge. Based upon my experience most gamblers not only are not up for the challenge, some do not know that a challenge even exists.
So you have the psychological test, the money management test, the education of becoming one with variance (embrace the uncertainty)
As there is no way I know of to wager eliminating all risk. Sure you can do a few things to lower variance, but only a small amount.
The way to wager eliminates some of the risks. First, you set aside a pool of money that if things go sideways and you lose it all, it will only be an intellectual exercise rather then panic time.
2nd. Once you get your bankroll established, you then set a % number for bet sizing. So if you have a bankroll of 20,000 and you assess your risk tolerance and pick 1% as the wagering amount. You would then wager $200.00 a game. That means your bankroll will fluctuate as well your betting amount.
1% is a reasonable number to use. The higher the % the greater the variance, and chances of losing it all. I have tried 3% and even for me the swings were too large. 2% still has very high swings, 1 or 1.5 % are both good numbers for you to consider.
Most people that wager, have no method, but only wager an amount based upon how they feel about the game itself, and in some instances increase the size of their wager to get even (plunging)
If you cannot harness that desire, you cannot begin to think about wagering on anything.
I will also go as far to say, if you do not have a set betting method, or feel it is too much trouble, then do not even begin this journey. As I will tell you, you can be the very best handicapper and if you do not get a handle on the above, you have a very high chance of going broke. Wagering to me is a game in and of itself. So the way I approach is from a game theory standpoint. And I have a rule that I do not wager unless I feel I have the best of it. (I have always said I do not need to have the best of it, but I do need to think I have the best of it)
I did not always approach things that way, years ago before I decided to get rid of my bad habits, I did about everything most gamblers did. However I am an analytical type, and eventually I worked out what works for me to harness my bad habits. Sure I have slipped from time to time over the years, but the more gambling I do, the more disciplined I become.
Betting just to bet can get very expensive in the long haul. Expensive enough to remove all of your EV you have fought so hard to obtain.
I had a good friend of mine that became very successful at some of the highest stakes poker games in the world. Back in my college days we went together to many local games around the Univ of Ill area. Then as time passed I lost track of him. But, when I moved to Vegas over 20 years ago, I walked into the Bellagio poker room, and heard someone yell out my name.
I looked and there he was the person I knew back in my college days. He was sitting at the 2,000/4000 table with Brunson , Reese, and the other cast of high stakes poker players.
We went out to lunch and I asked him how does he handle variance? At 2000/4000 limit poker, 30 big bets is $120,000. 100 big bets $400,000. And he was playing some of the best in the world:)
His answer amused me, “when you are as good as me, you do not need to be concerned with variance”
I always knew from the past, he had little respect for variance, but on the other hand , had one of the best minds for poker I have seen. So who knows:)
The reason I am writing this is whenever you go through a tough patch, it should be a learning experience, not a traumatic experience that you lose sleep over, get mad, or triggers a tilt factor in you.
I always approach wagering as an intellectual exercise. At the poker table I could go through 3 racks, and you would never know I was losing. This happened in an Omaha 8 game I was in. I got hand after hand, and lost every one of them. The person next to me who at the time was with 2+2 that I became friends with, looked at me and asked “when you just get up and quit for the day”?
My reply was , what is the difference if your downswing occurs in hours or months. As long as I am playing good and the game is good, my approach is to just weather the storm. I can do that because I am not superstitious, as some players are. He of course understood what I was saying, he replied that he tends to get mad after 2 racks. so he quits at that point.
So you have to know your own limitations., and either work on them, or abide by rules you set so they do not cost you money.
I played professional poker for 20 years here in Vegas. I played 6 days a week, for 6 to 20 hrs. at a time. I always kept detailed spreadsheets as to each game I played in broken down by game played, the betting structure of the game,. By the time I stopped playing, I had detailed records as to top bottom swings for each category, my net profit, and expected EV. I found out there were some games that I had no edge in, some games where the variance made it just oo tough to consider playing in them. Badugi was one of the games that I decided had too high
But other games have for me a very low variance, Omaha 8 was my game of choice. 2 to 7 triple draw another game of choice. Stud hi low, either any any or 8 or better another. I liked any any because most players had no idea the key strategies behind playing it. It plays completely different the 8 or better.
All carries over to sports betting. And MLB is the toughest grind of them all.
As a said a testing ground:)
If you wish to join us for free up to the beginning of NCAA FB, send an email to [email protected]. I have talked previously why I am making these picks free for most of the MLB season.
Once I get your email I will add you to the email list, and also send you an invite to both discord channels. Discord has all the wagering history since I started with my online site many years ago.
Try to join us if only for the educational posts, and conversations on discord.
RickJ
RickJ Sports Plays
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord:
RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/22 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-22-and-comments/
MLB Overnights for 5/22 and comments
With the new data base in use, the jury is out on how effective it will turn out. One thing about the free service for MLB is you are tending to risk wagering with a new database as a backbone
for finding value. When the database you have been using overnight went out of business, then you have to search for your alternatives. I had a number in mind, and I picked what I feel is the best suited for finding value in overnight wagering.
So far this has proven accurate on beating the closing line, but for actual results we find ourselves at just under breakeven for the season. But the good news is one good month could well make up for a few months of low range swings with a net negative.
So, It is too early to tell , but I am optimistic since as long as long as we keep beating the closing line,
So for today the overnights from last night are:
959 ARI R NELSON -R 235 960 T GLASNOW -R 957 M FRIED -L 958 CUB J STEELE -L 122 955 B SNELL -L 956 PIT J JONES -R -120 965 B BELLO -R 966 TAM R PEPIOT -R -120 977 TEX D DUNNING -R 120 978 T WALKER -R
This is all sent out to subscribers via email , discord and my old Slack account which I am moving away from.
As I said this is all free until the beginning of NCAA FB, At which time things will be back to normal with the free
accounts either electing to continue on with us over football season or moving on.
But you will have time to get your choice before Football begins.
If anyone has any questions, or wishes to take advantage of the free MLB season, just send me an email to [email protected] and I will have
you up and running the same day.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/22 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-22-and-comments/
MLB Overnights for 5/22 and comments
With the new data base in use, the jury is out on how effective it will turn out. One thing about the free service for MLB is you are tending to risk wagering with a new database as a backbone
for finding value. When the database you have been using overnight went out of business, then you have to search for your alternatives. I had a number in mind, and I picked what I feel is the best suited for finding value in overnight wagering.
So far this has proven accurate on beating the closing line, but for actual results we find ourselves at just under breakeven for the season. But the good news is one good month could well make up for a few months of low range swings with a net negative.
So, It is too early to tell , but I am optimistic since as long as long as we keep beating the closing line,
So for today the overnights from last night are:
959 ARI R NELSON -R 235 960 T GLASNOW -R 957 M FRIED -L 958 CUB J STEELE -L 122 955 B SNELL -L 956 PIT J JONES -R -120 965 B BELLO -R 966 TAM R PEPIOT -R -120 977 TEX D DUNNING -R 120 978 T WALKER -R
This is all sent out to subscribers via email , discord and my old Slack account which I am moving away from.
As I said this is all free until the beginning of NCAA FB, At which time things will be back to normal with the free
accounts either electing to continue on with us over football season or moving on.
But you will have time to get your choice before Football begins.
If anyone has any questions, or wishes to take advantage of the free MLB season, just send me an email to [email protected] and I will have
you up and running the same day.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-16-premarket-comments-hoa-dysfunction/
MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction
Below are the Overnight Sides I sent out to subscribers :
953 PIT J JONES -R 123 954 J STEELE -L 961 OAK J ESTES -R 180 962 C JAVIER -R
I send the Overnight sides out via email, discord and slack usually around midnight. Sometimes earlier. With the change in databases the updated stats I use to detect EV in the opening numbers is not as early as the previous database I had been using. In addition, the times are not consistent. That results in having to get up around midnight and send these out.
So far we are hovering around even this season with the new database. My thoughts are at this point that when the smoke clears, we will end up around +10 to 15 units on these. The key is the numbers I put out showing that we are beating the closing line well over 60% of time by an average of .04. Not as good as previous years, but as long as this is positive the expectation is the net result will be positive at the end of the season.
Along with my plays during the year I also post market commentary on my other discord Channel RickJInvest
This is free to the sports side subscribers who also have an interest in trading. Not only do I post many of my trades, but also on some days my thoughts prior to the market open.
Here is what I posted this morning:
When they say strange things happen in the markets during presidential election years, they are understating it:) We have gone from high inflation , raising rates, to no inflation and now rates will be heading down by the Fed soon, and the 10 year note is falling like a rock:) The CPI number was below expectations yesterday, so now on a dime everything is fine! See how that goes, its may and in 6 months elections roll around that will shape the course of this country And as importantly will shape policy of countries around the world If you think for a 2nd that monetary policy is independent and divorced from this process I have a bridge to sell you:) The only thing that surprises me is that it took as long as it has for the narrative to shift. They really cut it close this time around. Am I a cynic, perhaps, am I delusional , most likely not, but I will say this I am right more often then I am wrong. That is all one can hope to accomplish in all decision making endeavors. So the chart of TNX tells a pretty story if your looking to buy a home or for that matter sell a home. Which as it turns out is me:)
I have never encountered the difficulty I have been having this time around in my many real estate endeavors. The lessons to be learned are this: 1. Never ever buy into a 55+ community 2. Never buy into a new development. The problem is the developer keeps control of everything for a very long time to their advantage. The control the board, they control property management and they control all the vendors. And even when you have transition they still control select board members who have bought into their agenda, and property management remains in their pocket. Now this can be a good thing or a bad thing. Or sometime neutral. As sometimes homeowners and the developers interests are the same. But more often the conflict. And when they do, guess who wins out, the developer. They control almost every aspect of the community. The board members that relate to the developer, and help them even after transition are doing it either because of “the Stockholm syndrome, or out of the misguided thought they are doing the right thing. Or perhaps other reasons. But if things turn sideways, the homeowners can be in a very bad spot. So rather then take that chance, buy into an established community with a track record of fairness to homeowners. Otherwise you are in for some sleep less nights.
I will be writing a book on this subject once I move out of the community I am in and sell my home here. The community on its surface looks like a retirement haven:) But, underneath you have dysfunction on top of dysfunction. A mini animal farm:) Since it is a rather small community you have residents who tend to fall into two groups. And they fight each other often. The stories I have to tell are comical and tragic. But in the end since I never take life too seriously the book and hopefully the screen play will be very entertaining. As am example I received a notice to appear before the board. That was it. Of course the bylaws and law require specificity with notices like that. This is not a totalitarian system, where at their whim a board can demand a resident to just show up.
The issue of the day had been a long drawn out fight on the issue of spraying synthetic herbicides and pesticides in a 55+ community. Another homeowner and myself lead the discussion on this issue by writing a series of 7 communications to the board, all respectful, informative, annotated with the position that it was not the right way to go in a 55+ community. You can see our emails in RickJSports as a guide for those in a similar situation. As a former trial attorney I am well trained both in researching these types of issues and presenting compelling arguments. I have tried as the lead trial attorney cases ranging from Federal mail fraud cases, murder cases, complex products liability and complex medical negligence cases in front of a jury. So this issue was a simple one, as the trend is around the world to go with safer alternatives. It is one that in front of a reasonable thinking audience we would have persuaded them. But not this time:) To shorten this up, the end result is I am moving out in 7 to 10 days, and paying an extra 4000 a month just to be out of here until my home sells. And I will end up taking a loss for one of the first times in my life on the sale of this home.
What happened to me is an outlier in the standpoint of the extreme reaction our emails got from the board. No logic can explain the reaction, but one day when the smoke clears here and I am free to discuss everything. I will start my book. As I know what the reasons are and what is occurring in the powers to be in this community. At least for a few of them. Do back to the chart:) I celebrate this as this means to me and many others that the process of selling and buying a home will be a bit easier , at least until November. After November all bets are off.
Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning! FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile. This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)
Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning! FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile. This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)
As most of you know who have been following me from my sports handicapping side, I tend to be a contrarian. What could be more contrarian then to fade the public who are sticking their money now into money market funds Eventually this money will find its way into the markets, but if history is a guide it will be close to the top:)
I usually do not digress into personal areas, but, in this case it is illustrative of how the rate changes can effect real life situations. And for some might give some guidance on how HOA living can go sideways if you do not do your homework:)
All this and more is free until the beginning of football season. Then we are back to subscribers only. If you want to take advantage of this free offer, just email me at [email protected] and I will get you on the email list, and discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-16-premarket-comments-hoa-dysfunction/
MLB Overnights for 5/16, Premarket comments , HOA Dysfunction
Below are the Overnight Sides I sent out to subscribers :
953 PIT J JONES -R 123 954 J STEELE -L 961 OAK J ESTES -R 180 962 C JAVIER -R
I send the Overnight sides out via email, discord and slack usually around midnight. Sometimes earlier. With the change in databases the updated stats I use to detect EV in the opening numbers is not as early as the previous database I had been using. In addition, the times are not consistent. That results in having to get up around midnight and send these out.
So far we are hovering around even this season with the new database. My thoughts are at this point that when the smoke clears, we will end up around +10 to 15 units on these. The key is the numbers I put out showing that we are beating the closing line well over 60% of time by an average of .04. Not as good as previous years, but as long as this is positive the expectation is the net result will be positive at the end of the season.
Along with my plays during the year I also post market commentary on my other discord Channel RickJInvest
This is free to the sports side subscribers who also have an interest in trading. Not only do I post many of my trades, but also on some days my thoughts prior to the market open.
Here is what I posted this morning:
When they say strange things happen in the markets during presidential election years, they are understating it:) We have gone from high inflation , raising rates, to no inflation and now rates will be heading down by the Fed soon, and the 10 year note is falling like a rock:) The CPI number was below expectations yesterday, so now on a dime everything is fine! See how that goes, its may and in 6 months elections roll around that will shape the course of this country And as importantly will shape policy of countries around the world If you think for a 2nd that monetary policy is independent and divorced from this process I have a bridge to sell you:) The only thing that surprises me is that it took as long as it has for the narrative to shift. They really cut it close this time around. Am I a cynic, perhaps, am I delusional , most likely not, but I will say this I am right more often then I am wrong. That is all one can hope to accomplish in all decision making endeavors. So the chart of TNX tells a pretty story if your looking to buy a home or for that matter sell a home. Which as it turns out is me:)
I have never encountered the difficulty I have been having this time around in my many real estate endeavors. The lessons to be learned are this: 1. Never ever buy into a 55+ community 2. Never buy into a new development. The problem is the developer keeps control of everything for a very long time to their advantage. The control the board, they control property management and they control all the vendors. And even when you have transition they still control select board members who have bought into their agenda, and property management remains in their pocket. Now this can be a good thing or a bad thing. Or sometime neutral. As sometimes homeowners and the developers interests are the same. But more often the conflict. And when they do, guess who wins out, the developer. They control almost every aspect of the community. The board members that relate to the developer, and help them even after transition are doing it either because of “the Stockholm syndrome, or out of the misguided thought they are doing the right thing. Or perhaps other reasons. But if things turn sideways, the homeowners can be in a very bad spot. So rather then take that chance, buy into an established community with a track record of fairness to homeowners. Otherwise you are in for some sleep less nights.
I will be writing a book on this subject once I move out of the community I am in and sell my home here. The community on its surface looks like a retirement haven:) But, underneath you have dysfunction on top of dysfunction. A mini animal farm:) Since it is a rather small community you have residents who tend to fall into two groups. And they fight each other often. The stories I have to tell are comical and tragic. But in the end since I never take life too seriously the book and hopefully the screen play will be very entertaining. As am example I received a notice to appear before the board. That was it. Of course the bylaws and law require specificity with notices like that. This is not a totalitarian system, where at their whim a board can demand a resident to just show up.
The issue of the day had been a long drawn out fight on the issue of spraying synthetic herbicides and pesticides in a 55+ community. Another homeowner and myself lead the discussion on this issue by writing a series of 7 communications to the board, all respectful, informative, annotated with the position that it was not the right way to go in a 55+ community. You can see our emails in RickJSports as a guide for those in a similar situation. As a former trial attorney I am well trained both in researching these types of issues and presenting compelling arguments. I have tried as the lead trial attorney cases ranging from Federal mail fraud cases, murder cases, complex products liability and complex medical negligence cases in front of a jury. So this issue was a simple one, as the trend is around the world to go with safer alternatives. It is one that in front of a reasonable thinking audience we would have persuaded them. But not this time:) To shorten this up, the end result is I am moving out in 7 to 10 days, and paying an extra 4000 a month just to be out of here until my home sells. And I will end up taking a loss for one of the first times in my life on the sale of this home.
What happened to me is an outlier in the standpoint of the extreme reaction our emails got from the board. No logic can explain the reaction, but one day when the smoke clears here and I am free to discuss everything. I will start my book. As I know what the reasons are and what is occurring in the powers to be in this community. At least for a few of them. Do back to the chart:) I celebrate this as this means to me and many others that the process of selling and buying a home will be a bit easier , at least until November. After November all bets are off.
Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning! FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile. This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)
Here is the converse chart of TNX , right at the top end of the upper channel, and if the open stands we will be breaking through that easily this morning! FVE and VFi are both green, the question is how far does this move take us. The 30 yr mortgage rate is now well below 7%. With a point now you can probably get close to 6%.If TNX happens to make 4.0 these markets will be making new highs for awhile. This could well happen as the two leading drivers of the inflation numbers have rolled over also, just like magic:)
As most of you know who have been following me from my sports handicapping side, I tend to be a contrarian. What could be more contrarian then to fade the public who are sticking their money now into money market funds Eventually this money will find its way into the markets, but if history is a guide it will be close to the top:)
I usually do not digress into personal areas, but, in this case it is illustrative of how the rate changes can effect real life situations. And for some might give some guidance on how HOA living can go sideways if you do not do your homework:)
All this and more is free until the beginning of football season. Then we are back to subscribers only. If you want to take advantage of this free offer, just email me at [email protected] and I will get you on the email list, and discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
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Text
MLB overnights for 5/12 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-12/
MLB overnights for 5/12 and comments
A 2-3 day yesterday and we find ourselves right at the breakeven mark heading into the middle of May. Top to bottom swing has only been around 10 units.
We are beating the closing line at a rate of 46-28-3 which is 62% of the time. The difference over the 77 wagers is around .04. A little low historically, but I am using
a new database this season. The company I was using went out of business after many years:)
But this one has been around and solid a very long time.
Overnight picks for 5/12 games are :
959 W BUEHLER -R 960 SDG Y DARVISH -R 115 961 B ELDER -R 962 NYM L SEVERINO -R 110 965 J VERLANDER -R 966 DET J FLAHERTY -R 101 971 S LUGO -R 972 LAA P SANDOVAL -L 117
Remember RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now a free service until the beginning of NCAA FB. All subscribers monthly payments have been paused and you will pick up right where you left off when I switched to a free service.
The reason for this is 1. I am using a new database 2. I have a number of personal items on my plate, of which selling and buying another home is top on my priority list. You do not know the amount of effort this takes until you get into the actual process. I have been doing it my entire life, and still I have found no way to make it an easy process.
I lived 18 years peacefully in the last community I was in here in Las Vegas, but as I tend to do when property values dramatically increase, I take my profit. In the last sale it was $650,000 profit of which 500,000 was tax free! But after 2 years in the community I am in now, it is clear it is not a good fit for us. So for the first time ever I am going to take a loss on this one.
I will write more on the process of buying and selling homes on my discord channel, sharing with you some of the rules to go by and should never be broken, unless you are into pain:)
So, in fairness to subscribers, in the past I have had handicapping my top priority. Once this chaos is over, which should be before the start of college football, it will be back to #1. with trading a close 2nd.
As a subscriber you get all plays sent out via email, and also access to my two discord channels, RickJSports and RickJInvest
If you wish to join us for the free period of time, just send me an email to [email protected]. I will have you signed up quickly with invites to both discord channels.
A week before the beginning of college football I will start sending out reminders that the free service becomes a paying service soon. Most subscribers sign up for the $49.00 a month option with a few taking the $499.00 yearly option.
I started sharing my picks online over 20 years ago. It is a testament to my ability to find positive EV plays, that I have had subscribers from day 1! I am 100% transparent on my results as those that know me know. Almost all my new signups come from word of mouth, as I do not advertise.
If anyone has any questions, please do not hesitate to write me at the above email address.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB overnights for 5/12 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-12/
MLB overnights for 5/12 and comments
A 2-3 day yesterday and we find ourselves right at the breakeven mark heading into the middle of May. Top to bottom swing has only been around 10 units.
We are beating the closing line at a rate of 46-28-3 which is 62% of the time. The difference over the 77 wagers is around .04. A little low historically, but I am using
a new database this season. The company I was using went out of business after many years:)
But this one has been around and solid a very long time.
Overnight picks for 5/12 games are :
959 W BUEHLER -R 960 SDG Y DARVISH -R 115 961 B ELDER -R 962 NYM L SEVERINO -R 110 965 J VERLANDER -R 966 DET J FLAHERTY -R 101 971 S LUGO -R 972 LAA P SANDOVAL -L 117
Remember RickJ’s Handicapping Picks is now a free service until the beginning of NCAA FB. All subscribers monthly payments have been paused and you will pick up right where you left off when I switched to a free service.
The reason for this is 1. I am using a new database 2. I have a number of personal items on my plate, of which selling and buying another home is top on my priority list. You do not know the amount of effort this takes until you get into the actual process. I have been doing it my entire life, and still I have found no way to make it an easy process.
I lived 18 years peacefully in the last community I was in here in Las Vegas, but as I tend to do when property values dramatically increase, I take my profit. In the last sale it was $650,000 profit of which 500,000 was tax free! But after 2 years in the community I am in now, it is clear it is not a good fit for us. So for the first time ever I am going to take a loss on this one.
I will write more on the process of buying and selling homes on my discord channel, sharing with you some of the rules to go by and should never be broken, unless you are into pain:)
So, in fairness to subscribers, in the past I have had handicapping my top priority. Once this chaos is over, which should be before the start of college football, it will be back to #1. with trading a close 2nd.
As a subscriber you get all plays sent out via email, and also access to my two discord channels, RickJSports and RickJInvest
If you wish to join us for the free period of time, just send me an email to [email protected]. I will have you signed up quickly with invites to both discord channels.
A week before the beginning of college football I will start sending out reminders that the free service becomes a paying service soon. Most subscribers sign up for the $49.00 a month option with a few taking the $499.00 yearly option.
I started sharing my picks online over 20 years ago. It is a testament to my ability to find positive EV plays, that I have had subscribers from day 1! I am 100% transparent on my results as those that know me know. Almost all my new signups come from word of mouth, as I do not advertise.
If anyone has any questions, please do not hesitate to write me at the above email address.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/11 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-11-and-comments/
MLB Overnights for 5/11 and comments
We just got off a nice 7-0 run while hovering around break even the first 5 weeks of the season. Top to bottom swing so far has only been
10 units. A very small number considering we are wagering almost everyday on the overnight sides.
Today the Overnights that were posted last night are:
Typically there are 0 to 3 overnights. This is the most plays we have had in one day so far.
As the season progresses I expect the number of plays to pick up, in addition beginning June 1 same day totals kicks in.
I will have the historical results up on those before June 1 rolls around.
The good thing about switching over to discord is it keeps the entire history of posts. Slack did not unless you wanted to pay
a rather large amount for the paid version of slack.
There are two Discord channels, both having a number of topics for discussions.
For Sports Picks RickJSports
For Investment Picks RickJInvest
Subscribers have access to both discord Channels as part of the subscription.
On the investing side I most many of my trades. The most recent one was a swing trade in AMD. I purchased AMD
on 5/1 for 143.92 and sold on last Friday at 155.98. An almost 10% gain in a week. I most likely will be looking for a reentry on this trade, if we get a
retest of the recent lows.
The most trades I make are in two categories. Deeply discounted closed end funds that have good management and a ROI Of 5 to 10% in income. 2 day short put sales. The last one was
on 4/25 where I sold 20 SNAP 4/26 8.00 puts @.10. This turned out to be an easy 200.00 gain as the stock shot up during the 2 day period.
Not all subscribers are interested in the investing side, but if you have an interest it is there for you.
As most of you know now, the MLB season is free until the first game of college football kicks off. I rarely do this as handicapping is time consuming and can be
expensive. The database and line service run in the thousands for me.
But, I made this season free as I am using a new database service, and also have quite a few personal things on my plate. I write about some of them on discord, to keep subscribers
amused at my trials and tribulations, especially with the HOA where I live.
To join our group for free, just send me an email to [email protected]. I will add you to the email list and also send you an invite to both discord
channels.
Hope to see you join us. If you have any questions also feel free to write me at the above email address.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnights for 5/11 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnights-for-5-11-and-comments/
MLB Overnights for 5/11 and comments
We just got off a nice 7-0 run while hovering around break even the first 5 weeks of the season. Top to bottom swing so far has only been
10 units. A very small number considering we are wagering almost everyday on the overnight sides.
Today the Overnights that were posted last night are:
Typically there are 0 to 3 overnights. This is the most plays we have had in one day so far.
As the season progresses I expect the number of plays to pick up, in addition beginning June 1 same day totals kicks in.
I will have the historical results up on those before June 1 rolls around.
The good thing about switching over to discord is it keeps the entire history of posts. Slack did not unless you wanted to pay
a rather large amount for the paid version of slack.
There are two Discord channels, both having a number of topics for discussions.
For Sports Picks RickJSports
For Investment Picks RickJInvest
Subscribers have access to both discord Channels as part of the subscription.
On the investing side I most many of my trades. The most recent one was a swing trade in AMD. I purchased AMD
on 5/1 for 143.92 and sold on last Friday at 155.98. An almost 10% gain in a week. I most likely will be looking for a reentry on this trade, if we get a
retest of the recent lows.
The most trades I make are in two categories. Deeply discounted closed end funds that have good management and a ROI Of 5 to 10% in income. 2 day short put sales. The last one was
on 4/25 where I sold 20 SNAP 4/26 8.00 puts @.10. This turned out to be an easy 200.00 gain as the stock shot up during the 2 day period.
Not all subscribers are interested in the investing side, but if you have an interest it is there for you.
As most of you know now, the MLB season is free until the first game of college football kicks off. I rarely do this as handicapping is time consuming and can be
expensive. The database and line service run in the thousands for me.
But, I made this season free as I am using a new database service, and also have quite a few personal things on my plate. I write about some of them on discord, to keep subscribers
amused at my trials and tribulations, especially with the HOA where I live.
To join our group for free, just send me an email to [email protected]. I will add you to the email list and also send you an invite to both discord
channels.
Hope to see you join us. If you have any questions also feel free to write me at the above email address.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight Plays for 5/5 and Comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-5-5-and-comments/
MLB Overnight Plays for 5/5 and Comments
Overnight plays in MLB are in full swing right now. So far we have been in the negative, but, that is not unusual for these plays.
There are a lot of plays over the season , and historically the top to bottom swings can be upwards to 30+ units. In addition, 10 unit downswings occur
a number of times a season. But when the smoke clears on these, we have been on the plus side the last 3 years, since I started posting them.
Also the Day of game totals kick in June 1. Except for last year these have been solid. Probably one of the solid of the plays I put out in all sports. But as sports betting goes
any one method can run into headwinds any one season. The reason is no method is immune from variance, positive or negative:)
The Overnight Sides for 5/5 are:
903 F PERALTA -R 904 CUB J ASSAD -R 110 907 M WALDRON -R 908 ARI R NELSON -R -115 909 L WEBB -R 910 PHI T WALKER -R 104 913 G CANNING -R 914 CLE C CARRASCO -R -130 927 MIA S SANCHEZ -R 117 928 J BOYLE -R
More plays than usual, typically we only have 1 to 3 plays.
Good Luck Today
And if you wish to join us for the free MLB Season, send me an email to [email protected]. I will add you to the email list, and send out an invite to my two discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/29 and Comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-29-and-comments/
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/29 and Comments
905 J PAXTON -L 906 ARI T HENRY -L 124 913 J RYAN -R 914 CWS G CROCHET -L 147
We hit a +163 on the White Sox yesterday, but overnight the line moved substantially.
Here are my comments sent out to my discord group.
“One play to note, The White Sox moved significantly overnight. Typically when that happens and you do not get down on the game, just pass on the game. Over the course of a very long season this is going to come up from time to time. Missing a few plays is not the end of the world:) And it can go either way, but I agree it always seems to be a win when you miss it. But over the long haul these wash out.”
You can get access to my discord channel, by sending me an email to [email protected]
MLB is free until the beginning of College Football!!!
RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/29 and Comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-29-and-comments/
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/29 and Comments
905 J PAXTON -L 906 ARI T HENRY -L 124 913 J RYAN -R 914 CWS G CROCHET -L 147
We hit a +163 on the White Sox yesterday, but overnight the line moved substantially.
Here are my comments sent out to my discord group.
“One play to note, The White Sox moved significantly overnight. Typically when that happens and you do not get down on the game, just pass on the game. Over the course of a very long season this is going to come up from time to time. Missing a few plays is not the end of the world:) And it can go either way, but I agree it always seems to be a win when you miss it. But over the long haul these wash out.”
You can get access to my discord channel, by sending me an email to [email protected]
MLB is free until the beginning of College Football!!!
RickJ
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight plays for 4/25 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-25-and-comments/
MLB Overnight plays for 4/25 and comments
Our Overnight play went 2-0 last night.
That brings our season to date record to :
2024 Season March Overnight Sides 1-4 -2.88 line change 3-1-1 +.046
April Overnight Sides 20-19 +1.91 Line Change 26-12-1 +.0507
Top to bottom swing for season to date +3.53 to -2.88 Units with 38 plays. That is only a 6.41 unit swing. Very low so far.
Tonights plays are: (These are sent out the day before the game)
901 F PERALTA -R 902 PIT M KELLER -R 110 913 TOR J BERRIOS -R 103 914 C RAGANS -L 915 L CASTILLO -R 916 TEX A HEANEY -L 108
We had a scratch last night on Tampa as Alexander did not go. Whenever that happens it is a no bet with the books as long as you designate Pitchers have to go, and not say action. I always want the pitchers who I designate to go. Otherwise what is the point:)
We had two big line moves last night with Cinc moving our way .38 and Texas moving our way .26. When this happens it is tempting to take a no risk middle for all or a portion of the wager. I do not do that as whenever you make a wager you give up vig. So, while right now we are around .05 the best of the closing line on all our wagers, why give up vig on the back end?
Now, if you had a method that was assured to give you an advantage over the opening line every game, then perhaps you could work out a method that incorporated middles. But as we see some of the games do not go that way. So you will end up with a situation where you stay with a full wager on the games that do not improve, but cut your wager on games where it does. Not a winning method:)
Just embrace variance, as once you go down the path of wagering there is no way to escape it. Take it as a given, and assure the wagering methods you use take into account that variance will occur.
If anyone does not know yet how to do that just send me an email to [email protected] and I will give you a refresher.
Or if you wish to sign onto our service, it is FREE until the beginning of college football. Just email me, and I will add you to our email list and send out invites to both discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord: RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight plays for 4/25 and comments
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-25-and-comments/
MLB Overnight plays for 4/25 and comments
Our Overnight play went 2-0 last night.
That brings our season to date record to :
2024 Season March Overnight Sides 1-4 -2.88 line change 3-1-1 +.046
April Overnight Sides 20-19 +1.91 Line Change 26-12-1 +.0507
Top to bottom swing for season to date +3.53 to -2.88 Units with 38 plays. That is only a 6.41 unit swing. Very low so far.
Tonights plays are: (These are sent out the day before the game)
901 F PERALTA -R 902 PIT M KELLER -R 110 913 TOR J BERRIOS -R 103 914 C RAGANS -L 915 L CASTILLO -R 916 TEX A HEANEY -L 108
We had a scratch last night on Tampa as Alexander did not go. Whenever that happens it is a no bet with the books as long as you designate Pitchers have to go, and not say action. I always want the pitchers who I designate to go. Otherwise what is the point:)
We had two big line moves last night with Cinc moving our way .38 and Texas moving our way .26. When this happens it is tempting to take a no risk middle for all or a portion of the wager. I do not do that as whenever you make a wager you give up vig. So, while right now we are around .05 the best of the closing line on all our wagers, why give up vig on the back end?
Now, if you had a method that was assured to give you an advantage over the opening line every game, then perhaps you could work out a method that incorporated middles. But as we see some of the games do not go that way. So you will end up with a situation where you stay with a full wager on the games that do not improve, but cut your wager on games where it does. Not a winning method:)
Just embrace variance, as once you go down the path of wagering there is no way to escape it. Take it as a given, and assure the wagering methods you use take into account that variance will occur.
If anyone does not know yet how to do that just send me an email to [email protected] and I will give you a refresher.
Or if you wish to sign onto our service, it is FREE until the beginning of college football. Just email me, and I will add you to our email list and send out invites to both discord channels.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord: RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/21 , Season to date MLB
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-21-season-to-date-mlb/
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/21 , Season to date MLB
As most of my subscribers know MLB season will be free for everyone, subscribers and guests alike. As I explained the reason was the transition from Slack to Discord, and I will be busy will some personal projects over the summer.
So in the event they interfere with the time I will be spending handicapping I thought it best just to make everything free until the beginning of College Football when things should be settled down on my end.
With that in mind I will be posting my overnight plays and all plays daily.
So lets start out with the overnight plays I sent out last night at 9:00 PM PST
MLB Overnights for 4/21 903 E CABRERA -R 904 CUB K HENDRICKS -R -125
Season to date for these is:
2024 Season March Overnight Sides 1-4 -2.88 line change 3-1-1 +.046
April Overnight Sides 17-15 +3.18 Line Change 22-9-1 +.054
The sides speak for themselves. The Line change is the advantage between the line we got early, and the closing line. Right now it is +.054 per wager.
This is about the minimum I would expect based upon historical numbers since I have been wagering on these.
I will start posting the top to bottom swing soon. Usually the avg swing is at a minimum of 10 units on up to 30 units.
Drawdowns using this method are much lower than day of the game betting, at least they have been in the past.
The last 3 seasons were all winning seasons for the overnight side plays. The typical season is about +10 to 15 units. That is where we were at last
season but I let it run past September which I usually do not do. And gave back about 8 units:(
So this season will end the end of October for MLB Overnights.
NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing now. If any plays develop I will also post them here.
We had a good season in the NBA this year :
NBA 2023/2024 (All 1/2 Unit this season) October Sides 2-3-1 November Sides 6-4 Dec Sides 11-8 Jan 5-8 February Sides 4-0 March 4-2
Season to date 32-25-1
So far there have been no plays in the playoffs
There were no plays in the NHL this season.
You can get more up to date timely plays by sending me an email to [email protected]
I will sign you up on the email list, and send you an invite to my two discord servers: RickJSports and RickJInvest
I post most of my trading and discussion of the markets on RickJInvest
Hope to see you join us. Or just check back here from time to time to see what the plays are.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord:
RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes
Text
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/21 , Season to date MLB
New Post has been published on https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/mlb-overnight-plays-for-4-21-season-to-date-mlb/
MLB Overnight Plays for 4/21 , Season to date MLB
As most of my subscribers know MLB season will be free for everyone, subscribers and guests alike. As I explained the reason was the transition from Slack to Discord, and I will be busy will some personal projects over the summer.
So in the event they interfere with the time I will be spending handicapping I thought it best just to make everything free until the beginning of College Football when things should be settled down on my end.
With that in mind I will be posting my overnight plays and all plays daily.
So lets start out with the overnight plays I sent out last night at 9:00 PM PST
MLB Overnights for 4/21 903 E CABRERA -R 904 CUB K HENDRICKS -R -125
Season to date for these is:
2024 Season March Overnight Sides 1-4 -2.88 line change 3-1-1 +.046
April Overnight Sides 17-15 +3.18 Line Change 22-9-1 +.054
The sides speak for themselves. The Line change is the advantage between the line we got early, and the closing line. Right now it is +.054 per wager.
This is about the minimum I would expect based upon historical numbers since I have been wagering on these.
I will start posting the top to bottom swing soon. Usually the avg swing is at a minimum of 10 units on up to 30 units.
Drawdowns using this method are much lower than day of the game betting, at least they have been in the past.
The last 3 seasons were all winning seasons for the overnight side plays. The typical season is about +10 to 15 units. That is where we were at last
season but I let it run past September which I usually do not do. And gave back about 8 units:(
So this season will end the end of October for MLB Overnights.
NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing now. If any plays develop I will also post them here.
We had a good season in the NBA this year :
NBA 2023/2024 (All 1/2 Unit this season) October Sides 2-3-1 November Sides 6-4 Dec Sides 11-8 Jan 5-8 February Sides 4-0 March 4-2
Season to date 32-25-1
So far there have been no plays in the playoffs
There were no plays in the NHL this season.
You can get more up to date timely plays by sending me an email to [email protected]
I will sign you up on the email list, and send you an invite to my two discord servers: RickJSports and RickJInvest
I post most of my trading and discussion of the markets on RickJInvest
Hope to see you join us. Or just check back here from time to time to see what the plays are.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Discord:
RickJSports
RickJInvest
0 notes