robertbinkowski

[robertbinkowski]

“The Turkey Isn’t Ready Yet”, a look at Turkey’s entry to the European Union

Let’s talk Turkey, and see whether I can squeeze any more puns into a topic as dry as the diplomacy around European Union enlargement.

Introduction

Enlargement has been a part of European Union policy since 1973, and has seen the member-state count rise from just six founding members into twenty-seven member states as of 2020. While each enlargement has brought with it a host of sociopolitical questions, most nations that seek to join the European Union do so, albeit once they fulfill the requirements which do change over time. However, one potential candidate for enlargement has seen increased debate about whether their accession negotiations should be aborted or suspended– the Republic of Turkey. The subject of Turkish accession has been hotly debated– while pros and cons exist to the accession, the process has been mired in controversy. While advocates claim that Turkish accession would be a mutually beneficial agreement in the long-term, it must be said that Turkey should have their current negotiations terminated or suspended until major changes occur in the nation. By looking at the arguments in favour and against Turkish accession, as well as the controversies that exist in the process, this analysis will argue that it is in the best interest of the European Union to terminate or suspend the accession negotiations with Turkey until the nation has taken further steps to show willingness to implement further measures that could ensure cohesion.

Internal Policy Concerns

The political situation in Turkey is problematic for many reasons, but can be boiled down to a lack of effort on the part of the Turkish government in encouraging cohesion with European Union standards, as well as having a set of political principles including authoritarianism and militarism which find themselves at odds with the standard for European democracy. Where Turkey has expressed interest in joining the European Union, they have failed to follow this sentiment up with effective political change. Internally, it seems that much of the controversy of accession revolves around the poor track record that Turkey has with its minority groups and a political system based less on democracy and more on militarist supremacy. While these issues are solvable, and the European Union should continue to encourage Turkey to move towards European ideals, the nation has quite simply not made any considerable efforts to adapt to the criteria outlined for their accession process.

While expressing interest to join the European Union, Turkey has continuously regressed in its convergence efforts in favour of authoritarianism– Turkish scholars identify a so-called “deep state” of military elites, big business and big media, which stand as a threat to democratic reform efforts in Turkey. Indeed, Turkey’s political instability and fragile democracy make them a difficult accession candidate, as the European Union would naturally inherit the problems that come with a new member-state. It is not currently in the best interest of the European Union to be saddled with decades of ethnic tensions, constitutional strife, and a political system based on the elevation of the military over popular sovereignty. Nothing better encapsulates this issue than the ongoing political instability perpetuated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has effectively outlawed opposition to his party, silenced minority dissenters such as the Kurds, and added a multitude of authoritarian additional powers to the presidency. Quite simply, Erdoğan has done everything possible to avoid meeting European convergence requirements– it cannot be the case that a nation joins the European Union while at the same time standing against democracy, political opposition, and the rule of law. While an argument can be made that the continued accession process may motivate Turkey to democratize, this has been already proven to not be the case– even with the ongoing process, Turkey has taken many backward steps in the issues outlined above. While this is not to say that Turkey may never join the European Union, it certainly must be said that the ongoing domestic political struggle in Turkey leaves the nation as too far away from European standards for the time being.

As touched on previously, a major controversy facing Turkey is its poor treatment of minorities inside its borders, both historically and in a contemporary setting. Turkey, like many countries involved in the European region’s political history, has been founded on nationalism and genocide. However, unlike member-states such as Germany, Turkey has not yet come to terms with its past– in fact, the nation denies any involvement in genocidal activity, for example their infamous denial of the Armenian and Greek Genocides. While a history of such behaviour should not necessarily be a reason to bar Turkey’s accession, the same cannot be said for their historical revisionism, which has been recognized as an authoritarian and nationalist move. Moreover, Turkey’s continued strife with the Kurdish population shows that there are still heavily monocultural and nationalistic sentiments in the country; in fact, this issue has reached a point where there exists active fighting between Turkish and Kurdish populations. Once more, this is not necessarily a permanent halt to European Union membership, but the Kurdish discrimination does show internal instability within Turkey that will realistically take time to solve. It is not in the interest of the European Union to get caught up in this struggle, and European involvement should be limited to providing political aid until the country is ready to initiate meaningful change. While it would be valuable to make haste in integrating Turkey to take advantage of their national capabilities, including a wider labour pool, geopolitical position, and military capability, this is simply not an option while Turkey continues to defy the values that the European Union considers essential. While it could certainly be argued that continuing the process may stabilize Turkey through a more forceful set of convergence requirements, it seems that the current problems lie extremely deep in the Turkish political system– as of now, it seems that the Turkish “exit from democracy” is not only getting worse, but that it is coupled with a general rise in behaviours contrary to the values of the European Union.

Foreign Policy Factors

Turkey is quite a significant player in Middle Eastern and European politics– boasting the status of a regional power, a strong military, and a population of over 80 million people, the nation’s influence is not to be underestimated. However, Turkey’s foreign policy poses a big problem for their entry into the European Union, both when considering their policy towards European Union member-states and non-member-states. The major controversies largely revolve around the nation’s relationships with, and attitudes towards, their neighbours– specifically, Greece, Cyprus, and Syria.

Arguably one of the most significant controversies facing Turkey is the fact that it is involved in an active border dispute with an existing member-state, Cyprus. Since 1974, Turkey has occupied the northern section of Cyprus, which is an issue that the European Union had inherited upon the Cypriot accession in 2004. While some would argue that having Turkey join the European Union, or at least further negotiations, may help the nations agree to a resolution to the issue, this is simply not a realistic viewpoint. Of course, the continued accession process of Turkey would be a step in political cooperation– there is little doubt that the European Union would benefit from Turkey’s membership in matters such as the refugee situation or the war on terror. However, Turkey’s continued strife with member-states does not bode well for its ability to work in sync with the European Union. In reality, the fact that Turkey is engaged in a dispute with Cyprus has only led to bad blood between the nations that will likely result in the Turkish accession process being vetoed at every step– moreover, the occupation of Cyprus was also followed by mass colonization by Turkey, which has further cemented the view of Turkey as a nationalist and aggressive state. As much of an issue this is, the real challenge it represents is Turkey’s inability, or lack of willingness, to negotiate with the European Union– on multiple occasions, Turkey has denied European efforts to bring a peaceful solution to the Cypriot problem. At the present time, Turkey’s accession is tied into a solution to the Cypriot problem, and for good reason– attempting to negotiate with a nation that refuses to compromise or admit fault is simply impossible and impractical, not to mention the bad blood it creates in political environments throughout the European Union. This problem is fundamentally tied into Turkey’s autocratic political system, and until it can be resolved peacefully, the European Union would be well advised to terminate the accession negotiations.

While Cyprus is a small European member-state both in terms of economic power and population, Turkey has a controversial relationship with another European member-state of far greater influence– Greece. Despite both belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Greece and Turkey have an extensive history of border disputes and a historically poor relationship due to the legacy of the Ottoman Empire. In this case, Turkish military supremacy has led to a constant invasion against Greek sovereign airspace– knowing this, it is impossible to reasonably suggest that a nation which is arguably invading a European Union member-state should be admitted into the same union. While some may again bring up the benefit of gaining access to the Turkish military, and enforcing NATO alliances, it is currently not feasible to maintain the accession negotiations under the aggressive state of affairs. The problem with Greece is much the same as other Turkish disputes– an unrecognized claim being enforced through militaristic means. It is quite clear to see why such a foreign policy does not invoke confidence among the European Community, and why opposition to Turkish admission into the European Union averages around 70% across member-states.

Looking outside the European Union, Turkish foreign policy presents further issues in the Middle East, especially in the war-torn nation of Syria. With the theoretical admission of Turkey into the European Union, there would be a direct European border with Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The question must be asked; should the European Union involve itself further in the politics of the Middle East? This issue becomes further complicated when examining recent Turkish activity in the Middle East, specifically their fight against various factions in the Syrian Civil War. The European Union suffered great unrest and instability as a result of the Refugee Crisis, so it is not unreasonable to say that admitting Turkey into the European Union would further this issue by moving the front so much closer to the problem area. Not only could European Union expect a far larger number of refugees to enter into Europe through Turkey, but further involvement in Middle Eastern fighting could be expected as well. While it could be argued that Turkish accession would not necessarily include entry into the Schengen Area, it is still difficult to imagine a case where a member-state Turkey does not lead to further European involvement in the Middle Eastern situation. Indeed, Turkey has already proven that it does not have European interests in mind through their recent advance into Syria, which has been controversial due to the unrest that it has generated and the fact that it saw Turkish troops face off against Kurds. Ultimately, it seems that this is an issue without a viable solution, at least for the present time– by virtue of its geographical position, expansionist policy, and lack of consideration for European interests, Turkey cannot be currently trusted to converge effectively into European Union standards in the near future. So long as Turkey chooses to so heavily involve itself in Middle Eastern politics, which is a trend unlikely to be broken due to the fact that the vast majority of Turkish land is in the Middle East, the European Union would be best advised to keep Turkey at arms length to avoid any problematic entanglements.

Member-State Objections

As discussed previously, the admission of Turkey into the European Union is not a popular idea– European politicians and voter bases generally agree that the enlargement would be a negative development for the European Union. Largely, the arguments against Turkish membership focus on the economic consequences, cultural/religious incompatibility, and the issue of such a move disturbing the purpose that the European Union was intended to serve. Indeed, the admission of Turkey would represent a significant disturbance in the status quo of European politics, and possibly even trigger a change of sentiment against the European Union itself by right-wing conservative parties.

In the realm of economics, it cannot realistically be argued that Turkey’s current economic shortcomings are a reason to terminate the accession process– in fact, one of the purposes of the process is to converge the standards between the European Union and candidate nations. However, the real economic issue to consider in granting Turkey membership is the massive disturbance to the market that such a move would create– as a nation of 80 million people living with lower wages than the European average, the question of workers, wages, and mass immigration would have the potential to create the type of political instability that is simply not desirable for the European Union and its member states. While, of course, Turkey joining the European Union would create a powerful new consumer market, the potential for instability is simply not worth it at the current state. Indeed, the concerns of mass immigration are already a significant talking point for Eurosceptics; the fear of Turkish migration appears to be well outside the risk appetite for the European Union. If Turkey wishes to join the European Union, much more work must be done both at the Turkish level in converging economic standards, and at the European level in ensuring job security and stability for European citizens, lest such a disturbance cause a backlash among the population.

In a similar vein, the religious and cultural differences that Turkey has with the European Union as a whole simply prove to be too much of a hurdle at this time– no matter one’s opinion on diversity and inclusion, the entry of 80 million Muslim Turks into the European Union is very likely to cause backlash in a similar vein to that which was seen during the Refugee Crisis. The high population of Turkey is also important, as they would be the largest member state in the European Union, which comes with high voting privileges and a general strong control over the political process and direction of the European policy. This issue, paired with the vastly different culture present in Turkey, has the potential to break apart the unity and identity that the European Union has put significant effort into fostering. Whether overtly or not, political parties in Europe simply do not desire the entry of a culturally and religiously divergent country into the European Union. This issue, paired with the previously discussed lack of European political ideals leads to the concern that the Europeanness of the European Union is at risk with a potential Turkish enlargement. Moreover, there is question as to the directional precedent set by admitting Turkey, a nation mostly located in the Middle East geographically and culturally, into the European Union. In its current state, the European Union is already struggling to create a sense of identity amongst Europeans from the current member-states; it would be advisable to settle down and wait before considering future admissions, especially as the “obvious members” have already been admitted or offered admission. Enlargement fatigue is very much a real concern, and it is in the best interest of the European Union to put a hold on Turkish accession for as long as it takes to settle down the current political climate and overcome existing issues.

The European Union surely could benefit in many ways from the admission of Turkey– however, the challenges that still must be overcome both on Turkey’s and the European Union’s part represent a situation where the most advisable move at the time is to suspend or fully abort the accession negotiations with Turkey. The European Union has many pressing concerns on its table currently, including addressing democratic deficit, advancing European identity, and fostering cohesion within its own borders– at the present time, it is not advisable to add into the mix the controversies that come with admitting a culturally, politically, economically, and religiously divergent nation into the union.

Summary and conclusion

To conclude, it must be said that the European Union would be well-advised to terminate, or at least suspend indefinitely, the accession negotiations with Turkey, instead opting to remain allies without the commitment associated with membership. This conclusion is due to the myriad of controversies surrounding Turkey’s accession, including its political instability, ongoing disputes with European Union member-states, cultural and religious differences, as well as issues relating to its large population. While both pros and cons exist in regards to continuing the accession process with Turkey, it must be said that in the current context, the European Union should not continue their expansion attempts, and should place a higher priority focus on integrating and stabilizing the territory that they already hold.

Let me know if you agree of disagree, or if you have any other points you think should be made on this subject.