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smilingoctopus · 3 months ago

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Okay so just partway through chapter 8, wanted to add this below before continuing, spoilers for chapter 8 ahead, as well as a very long descent into madness by myself!

So I'm partway through this chapter and wanted to reason out my thoughts for Bernkastels game.

Firstly we've got some notable rules, one being that the culprit can't die, meaning one of the cousins is the culprit by that alone, unless one of the deaths was faked. We know it can't be a person X from the rule that they must appear in the story.

Then we have the culprit being able to lie, even before committing a crime. That caveat is very specific and makes me think it's very relevant to solving this.

We also don't have confirmation that there is a single culprit here, all we have is that non-culprit characters cannot cooperate with a culprit, so we could have two cooperating culprits here.

So for the first twilight we have Kumasawa saying the victims were there covered in blood, this technically wouldn't rule out any false deaths as none are specifically said to be dead. Shannon says that each of the children confirmed the deaths of their parents. As Shannon is dead by the end of it we can assume that this is truth, provided Shannon is not a suspect. Kanon then says that Nanjo and himself confirmed that Genji was dead, I'm not sure if we're treating Kanon as dead or not here with no body being present. Lambadelta said something interesting here along the lines of 'that's what happens when Shannon dies', part of me wonders if they might be alternate versions of the same person but as Kanon survived longer than Shannon in chapter 1 this doesn't seem to hold up. So at most Genji's death may have been faked depending on how this is treated.

Then for the second twilight Nanjo also confirms their deaths, interestingly this follows from Battler doing so too. Now, I think we can rule out a disappearing Kanon as the culprit, as the servants all confirm each others alibis. As they can't cooperate with a culprit this means they must all be culprits or all be innocent. As culprits also cannot die and all servants later appear to die I think this allows us to rule this out unless all servants deaths are faked.

Now the fourth twilight we have Shannon dying and Kanon disappearing, Shannon's death is confirmed by Nanjo once again, who again if not a culprit with a faked death is a reliable source. I think there may be some significance of George's wording here, saying he was 'forced to acknowledge that she was dead', the statement doesn't really comment on Shannon's actual state, only George's acknowledgement of it.

Now at the fifth/sixth twilight Nanjo once again confirms the deaths of Kumasawa and Gohda, Jessica also confirms this. We don't know that Jessica and Battler's statements confirm they're not culprits if they're telling the truth here, we know they can lie but I don't believe they have to lie. Jessica also says that the four cousins and Nanjo couldn't have killed Gohda or Kumasawa. At this point we either have a faked death or a lie, as the only remaining living people on the island one of them must be the culprit. Either Jessica is lying about them being unable to have killed them, or Nanjo has lied about a death (I dislike both these scenarios as I like Jessica as a character and Dr Nanjo lying about a death makes this very messy to unpick).

Now at the seventh twilight Nanjo is declared dead by Jessica and George. This means either Nanjo is truly dead or both George and Jessica are culprits in order to lie, this may also make Nanjo a culprit depending on cooperation (pretending to be dead feels like a weird thing to decide to do and then go along with when someone falsely declares you dead).

Then we have the death of Jessica, as declared by George and Maria. This means a false death is placed behind George, Jessica, Nanjo and Maria all being culprits along with a fifth culprit among the dead, this feels like an unlikely scenario so I'm going to move on from this now.

So at the end we've got 13 deaths, a disappearance, and three people left standing, Battler, George, and Maria. Battler and Maria state that the three of them couldn't have killed Jessica, which appears to be incorrect with no faked death, though this would make all three of them culprits.

At this point I'm a little bit stuck with either three culprits and no faked death, or five culprits. I feel like as we were asked to find the culprit there will in the end be only one (part of me is still leaning towards Maria due to the crown stuff but that directly conflicts with what George has said). So I'm going to listen in on Battler and Beato's reasoning to see if they've got something I've missed here.

So ruling out people is roughly what I've been trying to do, though I've been going through it from a twilight by twilight perspective. If we look at it on a character by character basis that might improve things, it probably helps if I don't ignore the non-death statements.

So I'll start with Krauss and Natsuhi, as these are the first of the dead with purple text and the dining room was declared sealed by tape by Battler. We know they died on the second twilight, were pronounced dead by Nanjo and the room declared sealed by Jessica. I think this makes them fairly safe in terms of being dead, though their statements amount to the destruction of Genji's key and confirmation of the closed room in the dining room.

We'll go next to Shannon and Kanon, the time of the second twilight, both Shannon and Kanon say they can provide alibis for all the servants, though interestingly this isn't offered by any other servant so might not be entirely trustworthy. Shannon is however confirmed dead by Nanjo. So provided Nanjo is truly dead then their statements could be considered true. These amount to the servants having alibis for the second twilight, and all deaths on the first twilight being confirmed.

Moving on to Gohda and Kumasawa, their deaths are also confirmed by Nanjo, so provided Nanjo is truly dead, again their statements would be reliable. Gohda's statements establish the locked door for the first twilight, the locked door for the second twilight, that no one has alibis for the fourth twilight, and the destruction of Shannon's master key. Kumasawa only confirmed people covered in blood and when she arrived.

Then we have Nanjo, who feels more key to all of this, as Nanjo not being truly dead would free up plenty of suspects. Nanjo confirms that no deaths are misrepresented, and the deaths of Kumasawa, Godha, Shannon, Krauss, Natsuhi, and according to Kanon, Genji. Now we have Nanjo's own death confirmed by Jessica and George. If we have a single culprit, which would prevent them from both saying this as a lie and also prevent Nanjo cooperating with them, that prevents any walking corpses from this point as all previous deaths were confirmed by Nanjo or someone Nanjo later confirmed to be dead.

So next we've got Jessica, whose death is confirmed by Maria, and possibly George, though the wording makes me a bit iffy on this. Jessica establishes a full closed room in the second twilight and establishes the taping of the door (which by red truth was not unsealed). Jessica also states that everyone went outside to look for Shannon and Kanon, and that George couldn't have killed Shannon. She confirms the deaths of Gohda and Kumasawa, as well as stating that Nanjo and the cousins couldn't have killed Gohda or Kumasawa. Jessica also confirms the deaths of Nanjo and that none of the cousins could have killed him.

Then we'll look at George's statements, he states no one was hiding in the dining hall. He also acknowledges Shannon's death, and that the guesthouse was completely locked up for the fifth and sixth twilights. He also states that Nanjo died instantly and no one could kill Nanjo inside the guesthouse (meaning either Nanjo died outside and was moved, if he is to be believed). He then says that Jessica probably died instantly, and that Maria couldn't kill anyone.

Next up is Battler's statements, Battler states that nothing suspicious was found in the dining hall. He also states that Nanjo confirmed the deaths of Natsuhi and Krauss and that they sealed that room with tape. He states that anyone but George could have killed Shannon, and then states no one has an alibi for the fifth/sixth twilight and that the remaining master keys are on Kumasawa and Gohda. Battler also states that Nanjo didn't leave the guesthouse, and that none of the cousins could have killed Jessica.

Lastly we've got Maria's statements, Maria states that all victims died instantly on the first twilight, and that packing tape was put over the windows and doors to seal the room for the second twilight. She states that everything is locked up perfectly on the seventh twilight. Finally she confirms that Jessica is dead, the three of them couldn't kill Jessica, and that George couldn't kill and adult but could kill a kid.

So through this we've got some conflicting statements, starting with Gohda's that no one has an alibi for the fourth twilight. This conflicts with Jessica and Battler's assessment that it couldn't have been George. We also have George's statement that no one could kill Nanjo in the guesthouse which appears at odds with Battler's statement that Nanjo didn't leave the guesthouse and Maria's that everything is locked up. At a glance the overlap of these two is Battler, but Battler is agreeing with others each time so I think it's unlikely he's lying. I need to check the red text to see if there's someway Nanjo was killed from outside the guesthouse, it might also be useful in other aspects.

So we've got red text confirming that master key are the only things that can lock or unlock doors from the outside, and that these are essentially a part of the servants and can't be removed. We know the windows are impassable, and that the first twilight involved six deaths. We know the seals on the mansion, dining hall, and Natsuhi's room aren't broken. This pretty firmly clears the first two twilight's victims from suspicion. Kanon is treated as dead by red text and his key is destroyed, this also rules Kanon out of suspicion (and by extension all of the servants).

That's the total of the red text we have but I think it's sufficient, we know Kanon, Natsuhi, and Krauss, and the first twilight victims are all confirmed deaths. Kanon confirms the alibis for all the servants for the second twilight, which is the most significant statement there. Provided we only have a single culprit that means Gohda's statements are all true. This then provides an interesting dilemma, if Gohda's statements are true on the basis of only having a single culprit, that results in Jessica and Battler's statements being false which creates two culprits. I've got a solution to this but I'm not sure how correct it is, it is possible that these things were only true when they were said, so upon finding out that George has an alibi the truth becomes that George has an alibi, but when that isn't known, Gohda is also speaking the truth when he says no one has an alibi. At this point I feel like I'm ending up circling through things a bit so I'm going to go check on Battler and Beato for some more advice.

So they've specified someone dying in a manner confirmed by something better than the purple. I think this is pointing to what I've written above. This unfortunately is prior to where I'm getting tangled up, as Kanon's alibis for all the servants isn't overly useful unless multiple culprits are ruled out, for instance Gohda could have had an alibi for the second twilight while George murdered Krauss and Natsuhi, then later murdered Shannon while George had an alibi. Following another hint by them I'm going to give it a re-read for solid deaths in the narration as I'd missed that.

Ooooookay, so we've got narrative confirmation of Nanjo's death, that sure's up a few more testimonies and confirms quite a few deaths. Time to go back and re-read some of this to see who else we can trust the testimony of. I think Jessica is also confirmed by the narrative, describing her as a gruesome corpse seems to do that? The narrative also states that George, Maria, and Battler couldn't have killed Jessica.

So anyway Nanjo's testimony in purple confirms, the first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth twilight victims as dead. This means we can trust the testimony of Natsuhi, Krauss, Shannon, Gohda, and Kumasawa, as they are all confirmed dead. So we can confirm alibis for the servants again via this, along with reaffirming the lack of an alibi on the fourth twilight.

This means that we can reduce the suspects down to Maria, Battler, George, and Jessica. However these are either narratively dead or have alibis. The only thought being maybe Jessica isn't dead here and is just described as a corpse? In which case it might've been possible she's playing dead at the end and committed the other murders? I think I'm going to visit Battler and Beato for another hint as this doesn't really fully line up for me but is at least a potential answer.

Okay so Jessica is definitely dead as confirmed by Battler and Beato. This means that George didn't kill Shannon, Kumasawa and Gohda are both definitely dead, and that the four cousins and Dr Nanjo couldn't have killed them. This then also confirms none of the cousins killed Nanjo. This means the culprit faked their death at some point here or is otherwise Kanon who disappeared, though is treated as dead by the red text and has an alibi for the second twilight.

Now this leaves pretty much everyone with a confirmed death, aside from Kanon, and the first 6 people. We know six died on the first twilight, but is it possible Kinzo was alive and is one of those six, the culprit then playing dead in the dining hall, it would also explain the closed room murder. However this wouldn't work with no murderer joining them and them sealing the mansion, unless they'd escaped beforehand, though with Genji's master key destroyed I'm not sure this works further down the line.

After once again going to the hints we do have a confirmed death for Kanon so Genji is also definitely dead. Each of the children also confirm the death of their own parents as confirmed by Shannon who is also safe. It's possible however that this confirmation itself was a lie as we're only hearing about it second hand. This means that Rudolf, Kyrie, Rosa, Eva, or Hideoyoshi could be a culprit along with their child and committed the murder of Jessica at the end. This of course only works if Kinzo is initially alive and then murdered which I don't think is the case. I think this music will drive me to madness shortly so we're going back to the hints because I feel like a cat chasing its tail.

Well now I feel like they're just reading what I've just written and mirroring it back to me. It is useful as a confirmation however. This does make me think we have a living Kinzo at the start if there are six deaths on the first twilight, either that or Ange really did sneak onto the island. The faux-dead culprit could leave the mansion before it is sealed and their child could help them with committing the murders. If Maria couldn't kill anyone then she isn't a culprit and as a non-culprit she can't assist a culprit which means Rosa is dead, I think it's unlikely Maria and George are both culprits so I'll take George's purple text as truth here. This leaves either Battler and Rudolf or Kyrie, and George with Hideoyoshi or Eva. I'm not sure how we can decide between these yet.

So someone pretending to be dead works for the first twilight, however the second twilight everyone goes together to Natsuhi's room, finds it locked and then unlocks it, finding them both dead. As no servants are culprits this means it must have been locked from the inside, they also both died instantly so couldn't have been wounded and locked the door. This would lock one culprit in that room in order to lock the door. This would work for three culprits but not two as the parent required to kill Jessica wouldn't be able to leave the mansion. Three culprits only really works if Ange snuck onto the island unnoticed somehow and was killed in the first twilight along with an at that point alive Kinzo. This makes me think it couldn't be Battler, Kyrie, and Rudolf, I doubt they'd kill Ange, which leaves us with George, Hideoyoshi and Eva as suspects potentially?

This would fit if George examines the bodies, claims they're both dead. One of Eva or Hideoyoshi sneak up to Natsuhi's room and kills both Natsuhi and Krauss before hiding and getting stuck in that room. The remaining parent then kills Shannon (Kanon also disappears), George then has an alibi for her death. The remaining lock themselves in the guesthouse, which the remaining parent has snuck into or is otherwise let in by George who has no alibi. This parent then kills Gohda and Kumasawa. George then also has alibis for the seventh and eighth twilight which make him not a culprit, meaning this whole thing falls apart as he can't cooperate with his culprit parents.

So what about Battler, this would flow similar to the above however Battler could kill Shannon and become a culprit. This gets around this limitation and leave us with Battler's family as the most likely culprits at the moment, we'll go have a check of the hints though as I feel this is off somehow.

Okay so the culprit of the first twilight kills six people by the second twilight, this leave 2 alive in the dining room. I think these are Rudolf and Kyrie but I'd like some more proof before going ahead with this theory.

After some hints I think this is where it's leading so I'm going to go ahead with my accusations and get myself out of this madness! I'm sure you know if this is correct or not so I shan't update this again but post if in the final one of these.

Further in Chapter 8 now:

Okay so there's been a lot about Ange giving up on anyone else being alive and Erika trying to wipe them all out with some theatrics with these goat boats. However it's entirely possible that no one but Eva is dead in 1998, with no bodies Eva is the only one confirmed to have died. For all we actually know Kinzo could have repaired the submarine, loaded the gold into it, got everyone but Eva onto the submarine and left for another country, leaving Ange in Eva's care. There's nothing to say this isn't possible, so I'm not sure why they've not whipped something like this out yet.

Umineko Chapter 7 Thoughts

Okay so that was interesting, spoilers below.

So right off the bat I'm going to go with not buying Bernkastel's truth of what happened. She announced that it was all true in the red truth, but I think this is just one possible fragment made to torment Ange. Might be me naïvely holding onto hope but given Higurashi's ending, several of the themes till now I'm hoping we get a happy if not bittersweet ending at the end here.

Now Bernkastel has said she won't give it a happy ending, that doesn't mean the tale can't have one against her wishes. I'm not quite sure how the gamemastering works but it seems that other witches and witch like beings can interfere and there's one that we've not seen that I think may have been present this whole time. We've had a single mention of Bernkastel's master, but we've also had the 'Au au' like noise in the background be pretty common throughout the game, so I'm wondering if we see some interference from Hanyuu, no doubt disappointed in Bernkastel's behaviour if she's not like the other witches.

Now in the actual game itself, though it was more akin to a funeral as posed, we learn some interesting things. We learn the origin of the gold, Beatrice and the underground tunnel under Rokkenjima. While interesting, it did seem to be more of a 'tearing out the insides' of the story as Bernkastel had wanted.

In a similar vein we have the disturbing origin of the 1986 Beatrice, and produced in a slightly similar manner. This also appears to reveal the identity of Beatrice as Shannon, though not 100% and I may be misreading this. This however doesn't answer the 'how' question to many of the closed room murders previously, though some of Will's lines about illusory chains can only hold illusions make it seem like there were never any closed rooms to begin with. I'm hoping this doesn't mean there never were any chains as 'Shannon walked in and murdered everyone then made up her own truth about closed rooms' isn't a particularly fulfilling answer to these.

I did enjoy the one gun getting jammed in the tea party, which fits with the Chiester Sisters that clearly represent the guns present in the VIP room with the gold. It does make me wonder which of the sisters represents the gun Rudolf had that shoots low, possibly 00 represented by the eye-patch? We then also have the more obvious seven sisters of purgatory representing the stakes, which makes me think the other furniture has their own relevant vessels, though I have no idea what that might be. It's also possible the rest of the furniture is really a delusion of Beatrice as described.

I'm still unsure how Maria might factor in at the end of this, I think she could still play a role as the opposing king given the symbolism but it could easily be a misdirect that I've fallen for.

Overall I think there's some interesting things in here but a lot less to analyse (plus I'm eager to see the ending) as we near the end of the story. I'm looking forward to the final part of this tale, and hoping that we get to see Battler's tale rather than Bernkastel's, and I'm very intrigued to see if Will can help Lion escape. I guess as a final prediction I'm going to go for something that feels very unlikely to give it some magic; I believe a version of Hanyuu will assist Will and Lion, allowing Lion to sacrifice herself to revive Clair and give her a single miraculous happy ending where the family returns from Rokkenjima. Who knows maybe it'll happen or maybe everyone just gets slaughtered.

#higurashi spoilers #umineko spoilers #umineko #umineko when they cry #umineko no naku koro ni

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