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The Great Wealth Migration from Europe to Africa

The weapon which was created by Europe for Russia is benefiting neither Western bloc nor the Russian bloc but giving dose of dopamine of economics to the African Nations.

The Europe and Russia sanction war has opened the gates of opportunity for African nations in terms of their Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Defense Enhancement, International Trade, Diplomatic height and several other factors that have a chance to rise.

The wealth extracted from Africa during colonization by European powers was vast and multifaceted. It’s difficult to quantify precisely, but it encompassed various resources, including minerals, natural resources, human labor, and cultural artifacts.

The wealth looted from Africa during colonization had profound and enduring effects on the continent, contributing to economic underdevelopment, social instability, and the legacy of exploitation that continues to shape Africa’s realities today.

The looted wealth is coming home

As the sanction over Russia from Europe has been resulting in supply constraints for Europe the Fossil fuels worth €98.9 billion, wood and its products worth €3.16 billion, iron and steel products worth €7.4 billion, fertilizers worth €1.78 billion, and other merchandise worth nearly €50 billion imports from Russia stand to nil. In order to fulfill those needs, Europe is looking to cheaper, more reliable and nearby options, which seems to be none other than Africa.

In 2022 both Africa and EU recorded a whopping €350 billion trade where the EU was enjoying a €4 billion surplus African countries export a wide range of products to the EU, including raw materials such as oil, minerals, and agricultural products like cocoa, coffee, and fruits. Additionally, some African countries export manufactured goods such as textiles and apparel to the EU. African countries import various products from the EU, including machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and processed foods.

Africa has huge abundance of Natural resources, Fossil fuels, Metallic minerals, Green Vegetation, and other required things for which Europe has urgent Needs.

The effect of sanction over Russia has already started to have a positive effect on Africa, as Energy firms from all over Western world are considering projects worth a total of $100 billion on the continent, according to Reuters. African countries that currently have little or no oil and gas output could see billions in energy investments in the coming years. The countries which will be on focus are Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, ECOWAS and whole Northern Africa.

These $100 billion projects include exploration of oil blocs, enhancement of existing oil blocs, building under sea oil and gas pipelines, LNG & CNG terminals and other Fuel transportation related projects. European push for natural gas looks set to help push African output to a peak of nearly 500 billion cubic meters by the late 2030s, according to consultancy Rystad, up from 260 bcm in 2022. The worth of Fossil fuels trade between Europe and Africa could alone touch mark of €170 annually by late 2030, where, of course, Africa will have the upper hand.

By maintaining diplomatic relations and offering cooperation in areas such as security and counter-terrorism, Africa could enhance its international standing and attract investment.

“The glorious the word sounds the harder is to achieve those sound on Ground”, There are various hindrances that arrive in this transition such as Scarcity of skilled work force, Supply-chain inefficiency, Terrorist groups damaging Africa and EU economic prospects, High level of corruption, Russian Influence over African countries, Tariff and Non- Tariff barriers upon each other and Regular political instability in Africa.

By maintaining diplomatic relations and offering cooperation in areas such as security and counter-terrorism, Africa could enhance its international standing and attract investment. Pooling resources and expertise, African nations could develop regional infrastructure projects and promote intra-African trade, making the continent more attractive to European investors looking for stable markets.

This transition of wealth might not only be limited to Africa, but it will also show its Domino effect till India. As the African countries will increase their exports to Europe the Economic status of Africa will increase and their high standard of living will demand new and different types of Goods and service for their needs and want satisfaction and here enters the India, India will export those requirements to Africa in form of Tech, Machinery, Gadgets, Auto components, Cultural products and services such as Tourism, Software, Financial service and other various tangible and intangible service which will also enhance the Economic status of India.

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Only Indian Tourist

In recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in the dynamics of global tourism, with one particular group making its mark more prominently than ever before: Indian tourists. Once confined to domestic travel or nearby destinations, Indian travelers are now venturing further afield, exploring diverse cultures, landscapes, and experiences around the world.

India, known for its rich cultural heritage, has long been a hub for domestic and inbound tourism. However, with rapid economic growth and a burgeoning middle class, there has been a significant expansion in outbound tourism from the country. Indians are increasingly seeking international travel experiences, propelled by factors such as rising disposable incomes, greater exposure to global destinations through media and the internet, and a growing appetite for exploration beyond borders.

The global economy, particularly in foreign countries economy is facing a great slump and moving on an indefinite path The expenditure of individual in foreign countries is getting under tight scrutiny due to the limitation of earnings and future uncertainties in the economy.

The effect of economic bump first shows its effect on disposable income, which means the income which was done in order to satisfy a want instead of need is been cut down or been limited with some heavy restrictions, such as in China, where the number of foreign tourist outbound from China is greatly reduced. From nearly 155 million outbound tourists in 2018, it has now been reduced to estimated 130 million in 2024 and it was just 90 million in 2023.

But due to great economic performance by India, Indians are not facing this dilemma; instead, India is on economic rise and emerged as a bright spot of light in this darkness of economic slowdown, Indians do not only show willingness to spend heavily on domestic trips trips but also on foreign trips

In the age of social media, foreign travel has become aspirational, especially in Tier II and Tier III cities and towns. A rising middle class is willing to spend on foreign travel.

Due to these heavy pockets of Indians, several Foreign countries have given visa-free access to Indian in order to fast-track and ease the process of Indian traveler in their respective countries, Such nations are Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia, Iran and Kenya, and they all have announced this policy within the past 8 to 10 months, making it clear that Indian tourist spending is really the sparkling thing in current global tourism economy.

A major reason why foreign countries, big as well as small, are courting Indian travelers is China. With the reduction in the number of Chinese tourists, the world is looking at India.

A FICCI report titled “Outbound Travel and Tourism: An Opportunity Untapped” estimates it will touch $42 billion by 2024, with the number tangling around 40 million Indians, which was $28 billion with 27 million Indians spending abroad in 2019. Spending by Indians on travel and tourism, which includes domestic and foreign, is predicted to hit $410 billion in 2030, a surge of more than 170% from $150 billion in 2019.

These visa free arrival schemes in multiple countries have not only enriched them with Indian tourists but have also enhanced the soft power of India in geopolitics and enhanced the passport ranking of India from 90th position in 2021 to directly 82nd position in 2024.

A growing Indian economy can spur investment in tourism infrastructure domestically and internationally. This includes the development of airports, hotels, transportation networks, and tourist attractions, which can enhance the overall travel experience for Indian tourists and make international travel more accessible and appealing.

Economic prosperity can foster greater cultural exchange and connectivity between India and other countries. This can lead to increased interest in international travel among Indians, driven by a desire to explore different cultures, cuisines, and lifestyles.

India has a large youth population, and young people are more inclined towards travel and exploration. As this demographic bulge moves into their prime working and earning years, the demand for travel, both domestic and international, is expected to soar. The population is young, with the median age at 27.6, “more than ten years younger than that of most major economies,” McKinsey said on its website. “What’s more, consumption of goods and services, including leisure and recreation, is forecast to double by 2030.”

As Indian tourists continue to spread their wings and explore the world, they are reshaping the global tourism landscape in a pro-Indian way. With their curiosity, enthusiasm, and spirit of adventure, Indian travelers are not just visitors but ambassadors of their culture, country, and global tourism economy. As we look ahead, the journey of Indian tourists on the global stage promises to be one of discovery, connection, and mutual enrichment for years to come.

Considering these factors, it’s likely that Indian tourists will continue to increase in number and possibly dominate certain international tourism markets in the future. However, this dominance would also depend on various global and domestic factors, such as future. economic conditions, geopolitical stability, exchange rates, and evolving travel trends.

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E Saal Economic Dominance Namde?

The growth story of India after the pandemic was proven to be a successful campaign, and the overall story could be seen as the result of patience and robust policies that were taken on time

India’s GDP was 2.67 lakh crore rupees in 2020, which was less 5.8% from 2019 but in 2022, the GDP reached a new high of 3.42 lakh crore rupees, which can be said to be nearly 30% growth from 2020 levels and nearly 21% growth from 2019 levels. The estimates of 2023 are to see a growth of 7.3% in this year by RBI. This growth data has given India the crown of fastest growing economy in past 3 years.

All this data looks amazing but what about this year? what about GDP condition and growth in 2024? Well, let’s do a deep dive in it

IMF has projected an estimate of 6.8% GDP growth of India for 2024, walking on similar growth line, the World Bank predicted the growth of India’s GDP will be 7.5% and the glorious RBI himself has predicted a growth estimate of 7% in the GDP in the year 2024.

There is multiple factor which are pushing the growth of Indian economy to a new high, as discussed below: -

The spur of Investment in manufacturing sector. The quarter 3 (October to December) GDP data by NSO (National Statistical Office) showed that overall economic growth in the 3rd quarter was 8.4% on annual basis and the biggest part in this growth was played by the “private investment” part, which has shown growth of more than 14% on annual basis and touching a new high. The growth of private investment in any GDP indicates that green field manufacturing projects and brown field manufacturing projects are on rise in that economy, thus resulting in growth of jobs.

Introduction of PLI (Production Link Incentive). A PLI scheme is an incentive plan introduced by the government of India, which gives subsidies to companies to manufacture their goods in the country. These schemes are linked to the performance of the organization. This means that the government provides incentives on incremental sales. This could be in the form of tax rebates or reductions of import duties. The total amount under it is 1.97 lakh crore rupees, which has validity from FY22 to FY27.

The government has introduced the scheme for several industries, which include Auto components, automobiles, Aviation, Chemicals, Electronic systems, Food processing, medical devices, Metals & mining, Pharmaceuticals, Renewable energy, Telecom, textiles and apparel, and white goods “The elimination of one race proves to be a boon for others in the race.” This quote fits upon India and China, as China is facing an economic downfall, a Draconian growth policy, and an economic war against developed countries, which takes China on several indicators at historic lows and has forced various western companies to think of alternatives to China and move manufacturing bases out there. India fits on the required frame of western company. A country which has abundance of natural resource, huge population, Stability, is a reform acceptor, is large, and is well connected to world in terms of infrastructure, digital, diplomacy, etc.

The juice of FTA (Free Trade Agreement) From December 29, 2022, to May 1, 2022, the India-Australia and India-UAE FTAs came into effect and showed results in the year 2023. Data shows that FTA with Australia has helped create lakhs of jobs in labor-intensive sectors, as Indian products get 100% duty-free access in the huge Australian market. India is exporting over 700 new items to Australia. These exports amount to $335 million in the first 10 months of FY24, such as smartphones, engineering products, Gems & jewelry, non-silk textiles, Light oil, etc. During its implementation (May 2022 to Mar 2023), bilateral trade grew 14 percent y over year. 90 per cent of India’s exports to UAE now attract zero duty under the FTA, with gems and jewelry, pharmaceuticals, food, energy, etc. being the key beneficiaries. Eyeing bilateral trade of $100 billion in the next five years, CEPA brings cuts in tariff, fast-tracked approvals for business, access to trade zones, etc. As a result, trade between India and the UAE touched historic highs, going from $72.9 billion in FY22 to $84.5 billion in FY23.

The latest FTA is with 4 European countries that are not part of EU (European Union) which are Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Trade with this non-EU bloc touched $25 billion in 2023 Its exports to the non-EU bloc touched $2.8 billion and imports were about $22 billion during that period. India expects that the pact, following deals with the UAE and Australia, will boost exports of pharmaceuticals, garments, chemicals and machinery while attracting investments in automobiles, food processing, railways and the financial sector. The main thing in this agreement is that these countries will collectively make an investment worth 100 billion dollars in India within this 10-year period.

The pulses of PMI index (Purchase manager Index) Propelled by new orders, upturn in inventories and higher job creation, India’s manufacturing activity hit a 16-year high of 59.1 this March 2024, according to a survey by S&P Global. India’s manufacturing PMI improved to 59.1 in March from 56.9 in February, reflecting stronger growth of new orders and renewed job creation. growth of new orders accelerated to the quickest in nearly three-and-a-half years during March 2024. India’s services PMI activity data comes a day after the manufacturing PMI for March, that was recorded at a 16-year high of 59.1. India’s PMI for services rose in March, following a small dip in February, on the back of strong demand that spurred sales and business activity.

The swarm of Reforms.

Telecom Bill: The purpose of the Bill was to update the existing regulatory framework in keeping with modern-day advancements and challenges in the telecom sector

The Digital Personal Data Protection Bill: The government brought in the Digital Personal Data Protection Bill, which requires companies to better protect digital data obtained from individuals.

The National Dental Commission Bill: With this legislation, the government can prescribe fees for 50% of seats in private dental colleges, raising hopes for an affordable dental education.

The Forest (Conservation) Amendment Bill, 2023: The Bill exempts certain types of land from the purview of the Act. These include land within 100 kilometers of the country’s border needed for national security projects, small roadside amenities, and public roads leading to habitation. The objectives of the Bill are to exempt certain categories of lands from the purview of the Act and to fast-track strategic and security-related projects of national importance.

The Multi-State Cooperative Societies Bill: In a bid to curb nepotism in cooperative societies and ensure fair elections, this legislation seeks to establish a ‘Cooperative Election Authority’ to bring electoral reforms in this sector. There are about 8.6 lakh cooperatives in the country

The Cinematograph (Amendment) Bill: The Bill aims to curb film piracy by penalizing offenders with up to three years in prison and 5% of production costs.

Credit rating agencies outlook upon India stays positive after the COVID pandemic, whether it is Fitch, Morgan Stanley, Moody’s, Nomura, or any other top-level rating agency that has shown trust and belief in India’s growth story. High ratings from credit agencies benefit India by lowering borrowing costs, attracting investment, bolstering economic stability, and enhancing confidence in financial markets. This facilitates access to capital for development projects and strengthens overall economic performance.

The handshake with Russian bear availability of cheap Russian cheap Fossil fuels, Natural resources, Raw materials and advancements in service exchange has ensured the supply of low-price material in the Indian economy. India-Russia trade has increased by 2.1 times in January–September 2023 this year, up to almost 50 billion USD. 48.8 billion USD to be precise, and this is expected to grow further and substantially surpass the figures of the last to previous year. The major role in this trade partnership was played by India by importing those resource items which had previously been exported to western countries.

Local currency: Showdown with Dollar. India has made and is eagerly making agreements with multiple countries to use the local currency instead of the US dollar for trade settlements. Benefits: India will be less dependent on the US dollar; increased demand for the rupee; more stability in price fluctuations; diversification of the foreign currency reserve, development of strategic partnerships; avoidance of sanctions; development of soft power; and other multiple benefits.

The countries with whom the local currency agreement is been signed are Indonesia, Iran, the UAE, Russia, Nepal, Bhutan, and Nigeria, and in total, with 18 countries, India has signed a local currency trade agreement either with their federal government or with their Central bank.

Above all, data, facts, statistics, and possibilities guide only one thing: this year, India will proudly say “E Saal Economic Dominance Namde.”

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GIG VS AI

Ladies & gentlemen, the greatest fight of the 21st century is expected to arrive within this 2 decade (2020 to 2040), where we will witness a clash between our economic gladiators, who are the GIG economy and its components, and the AI economy and its components. This fight has the potential to decide what will be the future of “bottom ones” in the world.

On one side of the global arena, we have the GIG economy, which means a marketplace where individuals (mostly labor categories) are hired for projects that are shorter in duration and lack all kinds of formal sector traits in it, for example, food delivery, free lancing, project-based hires, etc., and according to a World Bank report, it is expected to have 435 million people. On the other side of global arena, we have AI economy, which means a world where every action of an individual will have a basic support system which will ease its work and help to excel at faster, better and more straight way, for Example: AI writing a blog, AI Drone delivery, AI writing assignments, AI as an employee responsible for hiring and firing an employee, etc.

You must be wondering why two oceans are being compared; it is because they both share the same boundary and are fading at a very fast rate. Also, you must be wondering, “So what??/..., I am not liable for anything and neither affected.” If economics had been this simple, then earthians might never search for heaven.

The Gig economy face a major challenge from AI and you might even have figured out what the challenges might be, but just to make clarity in thoughts, let me explain

The challenges are:

1) JOB DISPLACEMENT: The first and foremost challenge is the job displacement of being fired. Any gig economy roles, such as delivery drivers, customer service agents, and data entry workers, are at risk of being automated by AI technologies like autonomous vehicles, chatbots, and machine learning algorithms.

2) SKILLS OBSOLESCENCE: AI advancements require gig workers to continually upskill to stay relevant. For instance, tasks like basic graphic design or transcription can now be automated, pushing workers to adapt to more complex roles.

3) TECHNICAL SELECTION: Many gig platforms use AI to allocate tasks, evaluate performance, and determine pay rates. This can lead to feelings of dehumanization and a lack of transparency in decision-making.

4) REGULATORY CHALLENGES: Gig workers often provide personal data to platforms, and AI can exploit this data for profit without proper worker protections.

5) MARKET CENTRALIZATION: AI-driven gig platforms can centralize market power, reducing workers' ability to negotiate terms. As platforms grow, they often extract higher fees or impose stricter conditions on gig workers.

These are some dangers that will be faced by nearly 450 million GIG workers in the future from the AI, so now the question in your mind might be, “What can GIG do in front of AI to ensure its survival?” The answer is “Collaborate." The GIG economy, instead of considering AI its opponent, has to consider it a future ally.

The collaboration ways are:

·       AI may evaluate market trends and suggest new abilities that employees should acquire in order to stay competitive.

·       AI-Enhanced Creativity Tools: To improve their work and produce results more quickly, gig workers in creative industries (such as writing and design) can make use of AI tools like generative design or content creation platforms.

·       Fair pricing models: AI is able to determine the best prices for services by taking into account worker effort, market conditions, and demand, which guarantees more equitable pay structures.

·       Transparent Ratings and Feedback: By detecting and reducing biases in customer reviews or ratings, AI algorithms can guarantee that gig workers are fairly evaluated.

·       Hybrid jobs: Gig workers can cooperate with AI systems in jobs like monitoring or optimizing AI outputs that platforms can introduce. 

·       Resource Optimization: AI can optimize routes, cut down on fuel usage, and save time for services like delivery and ride-hailing.

·       Improved Matching Algorithms: AI can be used to more effectively match gig workers with jobs that fit their locations, preferences, and skill sets. This can increase job satisfaction and decrease downtime.In summary, the titanic conflict between the AI and gig economies represents a chance for cooperation rather than a struggle for supremacy. The difficulties presented by AI—centralization of the market, skill obsolescence, and employment displacement—are formidable, but they are not insurmountable. Accepting AI as a friend rather than an enemy is essential to the gig workforce's survival and success.

Gig workers can increase productivity, obtain access to more equitable systems, and open up new growth opportunities by incorporating AI tools. In a fast-changing economy, AI can enable workers to thrive through hybrid roles, transparent feedback, and resource optimization. This change must be spearheaded by platforms, legislators, and employees working together to ensure equity, inclusion, and flexibility.

Our capacity to strike a balance between innovation and humanity will determine the future of the "bottom ones." The decisions we make now will influence the economy of tomorrow, whether we are consumers, policymakers, or gig workers. Let's make sure that the economic legacy of the twenty-first century is defined by cooperation rather than rivalry.