#Actuarial Methods Assignment  Help
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fincrew · 2 years ago
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The policy reserve is a sum of money set aside by insurance companies to pay claims made by policyholders who have completed or expected to make legitimate claims for their policies. It is to pay out unpaid claims that insurers have incurred.
Understanding The Concept Of The Policy Reserve
Financial protection is the main reason why people purchase insurance coverage. The company offering this service charges customers a premium so that it can assume this risk. Insurance premiums are payments made to the insurance company by individuals or small businesses monthly or semi-annually or pay upfront before coverage begins. By agreeing with customers, an insurance company accepts all liability in the event of an adverse occurrence that damages what it agreed to insure. Taking responsibility for a legitimate claim means paying the insured. An insurance company handles claims against each policy it sells every year. If an auto insurance policyholder is involved in an accident, they can file for reimbursement to claim their vehicle’s damages with their insurance provider.
Property losses caused by fires, for example, are easy to estimate and quickly resolved. The settlement of some types of insurance policies is more complex and may happen long after the policy has expired, such as product liability. In the context of insurance policies, a policy reserve is a fund that was reported but not settled (RBNS) or incurred but not reported (IBNR). Each file that fits these descriptions will be assigned a claims reserve, reflecting the company’s estimate of the eventual settlement amount. As the amount owing on any given claim is not known until settled, the outstanding claims reserve is an actuarial estimate.
It is the claim adjuster’s responsibility to estimate the amount to be paid. One method for determining the monetary amount of the claim reserve is based on either the claim handler’s judgment or statistically by evaluating past data to establish loss projections in the future. Throughout the insurance contract, policyholders pay a portion of their premiums to make up the policy reserve.
Special Considerations
Insurers can find it difficult to accurately determine how much money needs to be set aside for policy reserves. Reviewing helps, although this does not mean that they allocate adequate funding. A significant underestimation can hurt investors by eroding the trust they place in accounting practices and dumping shares. The assessment of claims that were incurred but not reported (IBNR) is particularly challenging. For example, an employee may inhale asbestos while performing their job yet not file a claim for an illness arising from the adverse event for 20 years after the adverse event occurred.
Claims Reserve Recording
An outstanding claims reserve is a liability recorded on the balance sheet of a company. They are liabilities because they need to settle this in the future. Therefore, policyholders may be liable for these occurrences. The claims reserve is adjusted during the claims settlement process as each case develops and new information is obtained. During the claims settlement process, the insurer will incur expenses such as fees for claims adjusters, investigators, and legal assistance, as well as the expected settlement amount.
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thosearentcrimes · 4 years ago
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Ok so let me start this with saying that I don’t necessarily think any of my followers are confused about this, nor do I think most people are mistaken when they mess this up - they are speaking for rhetorical effect and not for accuracy, in the same way gender pay gap statistics are sometimes used in statistically incorrect and misleading ways. Nonetheless, I decided to write this, to clear stuff up with myself as much as anything else. Math was easy for me until it wasn’t, and while life expectancy was relatively simple for me to understand, perhaps for others it is not, and if so I hope that I can help.
Life expectancy stats do not mean what the vast majority of statements concerning them would suggest. There is a very important distinction to be made between life expectancy and life expectancy at birth, between predictive and historical life expectancy, and it must be understood that these statistics are necessarily averaged out over a particular category of persons. For predictive life expectancy, assuming our statistical expectations are correct, the average lifespan of any particular cohort will be their life expectancy at birth. We can only base these statistical expectations on limited information. Unexpected catastrophes and medical advances can shift the actual lifespan in unpredictable ways, which is a problem for a predictive statistic. Historical life expectancy is only uncertain because of our lack of knowledge of the past, because as soon as every member of a particular cohort is dead (which takes over a century, mind you) their average age at time of death can no longer change.
Life expectancy rises over time. I don’t mean in the sense that there has been a tendency over the past couple centuries or so in various parts of the world at various times to have quite dramatic increases in life expectancy, primarily due to improvements in healthcare, though this is of course true (it is also true that in particular places life expectancy has dropped at various points in this same time-span). I mean in the sense that the life expectancy of a 22 year old is, on average (and the average is really all there is in life expectancy, remember) a fair bit higher than their life expectancy at birth was, because of their failure to die over those 22 years (unless, of course, they have died, in which case their life expectancy is n/a). In societies where infant mortality is low, where violent death is uncommon, where accidents are rare, and where disease is mostly treatable, life expectancy rises relatively slowly, but it does rise nonetheless. As such, it is statistically incorrect for people to count their likely remaining lifespan by subtracting their current age from their life expectancy at birth. Of course, because the life expectancy at any given age is buried in actuarial tables and life expectancy at birth is a demographic statistic that most people are taught in schools, people default to using the statistic they know, and I’m not against it, I just think people should know that it’s inaccurate when they’re doing it.
The second reasonably common misunderstanding of life expectancy, though on this one I think people are generally better informed, is the notorious ~25-35 year life expectancy that we believe lasted for most of history. I feel like people usually know that this primarily reflects a very high rate of infant mortality, and only secondarily high mortality in adulthood, but I have encountered people who seemed at the very least confused about the full implications of this. Because life expectancy rises over time, a medieval peasant who made it to 15 most likely had several solid decades ahead of them even if their life expectancy at birth was only 30 or so, because they had already failed to die a relatively large number of times in infancy, as in the previous paragraph. Now, obviously, they could still die before or at the age of 30 for any number of reasons (the middle ages sucked, a lot), but they were in pretty good shape, statistically. Medieval graveyards were for the most part not littered with the corpses of 30 year olds in the prime of their lives. This means that these societies had far more elderly people in them than an uninformed perusal of the life expectancy at birth would indicate. If we want to get inaccurate about it for rhetorical purposes, with a life expectancy of 30 years, a child that dies before its first birthday is compensated for statistically by someone else living to 60.
I feel like people are typically not given significantly more statistical education than being shown a bell curve (Gaussian/normal distribution) and possibly told what the difference between a mean and a median is (note: life expectancy is calculated as a mean, not a median, though it would of course be possible to establish a median life expectancy). There are two basic models for the distribution of death over age, one with high infant mortality and one without. In the former, the death rate is high initially, then relatively stable and low for a long time, and then a good length of time after the life expectancy at birth, rises rapidly. In the latter, the death rate is stable and low for a long time, and then starts rising rapidly quite close to life expectancy at birth. Neither model fits a normal distribution at all, but it’s the only statistical interpretation of a distribution around a mean most people will have been taught, and so they will often reflexively apply it, even when it doesn’t necessarily a0pply.
Irrelevant note just because I hate neophrenologists: there is no particular reason that I am aware of to believe intelligence, if it is a meaningful concept, follows a bell curve. IQ mostly does, because IQ is fit to the bell curve, but even if IQ does measure intelligence that would still not imply that intelligence is normally distributed. It is an attribute of the method of score assignment and not of the measured quantity.
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bountyofbeads · 5 years ago
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Coronavirus Live Updates: China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected https://nyti.ms/2P8fTVJ
CORONAVIRUS LIVE UPDATES: China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected .... Six of the workers have died, the government said on Friday. It was the first time that officials had disclosed the number.
RIGHT NOW: China reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the past 24 hours.
READ UPDATES IN CHINESE: 新冠病毒疫情最新消息汇总
HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
Release of information on infected medical workers underscores risks.
For more than a month, medical workers in Hubei, the province at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, have been working nearly nonstop even as they struggled with a shortage of personal protective equipment such as masks, gowns and safety goggles.
For the first time on Friday, China disclosed figures that drove home the risks faced by those on the front line: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. Of those people, 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan, the provincial capital and the center of the outbreak.
The announcement was the first official confirmation about the number of infected medical workers, and is likely to ratchet up fears about the spread of the virus.
“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Health care workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”
[A MEDICAL WORKER DIES: The death of the doctor whose warnings about the coronavirus were silenced has become a potent symbol of Beijing’s failures. SEE TIMELINE]
Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said the numbers of infected workers represented 3.8 percent of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11.
He added that further research was needed to ascertain whether the infections spread throughout the hospital or within the community.
Medical workers, struggling to both treat patients and keep themselves safe, have resorted to begging from friends, putting out frequent calls for donations, and using tape to patch up torn masks and gowns.
Many doctors and nurses there say they eat just one meal a day because going to the restroom means removing and discarding safety gowns that they would not be able to replace.
During the SARS outbreak of 2002-3, 961 medical workers were infected, representing 18 percent of all infections, according to government data. About 1 percent of the medical workers infected with SARS died, a medical expert, Xu Dezhong, told Xinhua, China’s official news agency.
BLOOD PLASMA FROM SURVIVORS COULD HELP CREATE A TREATMENT.
A senior health official in Wuhan, China, the center of the outbreak, has called on residents who have recovered from the coronavirus to donate blood plasma, believing their naturally produced antibodies could be used to treat patients who are still sick.
Dr. Zhang Dingyu, the director of the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, made his appeal on Thursday after Chinese researchers said they believed that such antibody treatments could help people recover from the virus.
The search for a drug capable of treating or curing the virus has frustrated researchers, as rates of infection and deaths continue to mount.
The government is currently prescribing a combination of antiviral drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. But on Thursday, China National Biotec Group, a state-owned company under the Ministry of Health, said it had found that administering a round of human antibodies from the survivors to more than 10 critically ill patients caused inflammation levels to drop significantly after 12 to 24 hours of treatment.
The company called the use of plasma “the most effective method, which can significantly reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.”
Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, said the use of antibodies to treat the coronavirus was “a really good idea,” noting that it had been used before in influenza pandemics. But he cautioned that it needed to be proven in a controlled trial.
“It’s basically transferring immunity from a patient who has recovered to a patient still fighting the infection, and then helping them to recover,” he said.
CHINA RECORDS MORE THAN 5,000 NEW cases in 24 HOURS.
Numbers continued to climb after the government changed the criteria by which it tracks confirmed cases. China on Friday reported 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the previous 24 hours.
The authorities said a total of 63,851 people had been infected by the coronavirus and at least 1,380 had been killed by the disease. Most of the cases occurred in Hubei Province, the center of the outbreak, which recorded 4,823 new cases and 116 deaths over the same period.
The tally in Hubei jumped most drastically on Thursday after the authorities changed the diagnostic criteria for counting new cases. The government now takes into account cases diagnosed in clinical settings, including the use of CT scans, and not just those confirmed with specialized testing kits.
[ MEASURING AN OUTBREAK: Here’s an explanation for why the case numbers suddenly changed. SEE BELOW ]
A CORONAVIRUS CLINIC IN HONG KONG IS ATTACKED.
A Hong Kong clinic designated to treat suspected coronavirus cases suffered a second arson attack early Friday, officials said.
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority said it “seriously condemned” the attack, against an outpatient clinic in the New Territories district of Tsuen Wan. A police spokeswoman said it had occurred overnight and left a door charred. The first attack, on Saturday afternoon, damaged an air-conditioner. No one was wounded in either attack.
The clinic is about four miles from an apartment building where dozens of residents were evacuated this week after two residents on different floors were found to be infected, raising fresh fears about how the virus spreads. (Officials said an unsealed pipe might be to blame.)
There were 56 confirmed cases in the city as of Friday. Fearing a wider outbreak, residents have been staging small-scale protests at several clinics assigned to treat people with mild symptoms of the virus. Late last month, the government shelved a plan to turn an unoccupied housing project into a quarantine facility after protesters set a fire in the lobby.
As public anger and anxiety mount, the Beijing-backed government has been accused by many residents of not doing enough to contain the spread of the virus, including the refusal to quickly order a complete shutdown of the border with mainland China. The authorities have gradually restricted arrivals from mainland China over the past few weeks.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said on Friday that her administration would do its best to repatriate more than 2,000 of the city’s residents stranded in Hubei province and aboard the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s coast.
The Hong Kong government has received more than 1,000 requests for help from over 300 cities across Hubei, including from Wuhan, Mrs. Lam said. Ten people from Hong Kong in the region were confirmed to have been infected.
Some 330 Hong Kong residents remain stuck on the cruise ship in Japan, and 11 of them were infected, officials said. The Hong Kong authorities are pressing their Japanese counterparts to consider allowing its citizens to be quarantined onshore and to get tested for the virus as soon as possible, said John Lee, the city’s security minister, on Friday.
As the mind assesses risk, the coronavirus ‘hits all the hot buttons.’
The coronavirus has killed more than 1,300 and infected tens of thousands in China. Those are alarming statistics, but a much more common illness, influenza, kills about 400,000 every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu season and 61,099 the year before.
There remains deep uncertainty about the new coronavirus’s mortality rate, with the high-end estimate that it is up to 20 times that of the flu, but some estimates go as low as 0.16 percent for those affected outside of China’s overwhelmed Hubei Province. That’s about on par with the flu.
While the metrics of public health might put the flu alongside or even ahead of the new coronavirus for sheer deadliness, the mind has its own ways of measuring danger.
Experts used to believe that people gauged risk like actuaries, parsing out cost-benefit analyses every time a merging car came too close or local crime rates spiked. But a wave of psychological experiments in the 1980s upended this thinking.
Researchers instead found that people use a set of mental shortcuts for measuring danger. And they tend to do it unconsciously, meaning that instinct can play a large role.
The coronavirus, which has created a wave of fear, may be a case in point.
“This hits all the hot buttons that lead to heightened risk perception,” said Paul Slovic, a University of Oregon psychologist who helped pioneer modern risk psychology.
[ HOW THE MIND JUDGES DANGER: The flu might kill more people, but that’s not how we assess risk. SEE BELOW]
CITING FRUSTRATION, QUARANTINED RUSSIANS ESCAPE HOSPITALS.
At least five people fled coronavirus quarantine across Russia, local news media reported on Friday, citing frustration, erratic and inconsistent government policies, and bad conditions in the hospitals where they were held.
Alla Ilyina, 32, a woman from St. Petersburg, had enough patience to stay for only one day at a hospital in Russia’s second-largest city. She detailed how she had broken a lock in her room and sneaked away while doctors were distracted by another patient.
“I am a reasonable person, if someone told me that there was a suspicion, if doctors didn’t tell me that I was healthy, if I had not done three tests in separate hospitals, I would sit there,” Ms. Ilyina told reporters in an interview, broadcast on Russian television. “I don’t want to infect my relatives or threaten anybody, but I just don’t understand why an absolutely healthy person should be held somewhere.”
Three more people escaped quarantine in the same hospital, Fontanka.ru  reported on Friday.
In the city of Samara, Guzel Neder, 34, escaped through the window of another hospital. After staying in quarantine for four days, Mrs. Neder called a testing center and a specialist said if she hadn’t received a positive result within two hours, “then you should be fine.”
“My son already felt well, he didn’t have any fever symptoms, but doctors deliberately made us stay for longer, so that we wouldn’t leave, to ‘fulfill the order’ of isolating people, coming from China,” she said. She described conditions at the hospital, where doctors didn’t wear any protective gear.
Only two confirmed cases of coronavirus have been reported in Russia so far. Hundreds of Russian and Chinese nationals have been quarantined across the country for the 14-day period, following recommendations from the World Health Organization.
Valentine’s Day in the time of coronavirus leaves much to be desired.
During the coronavirus outbreak, cinemas and restaurants across China have shut their doors, parks and streets are empty, and public events have been postponed.
For couples, that meant there were few places to celebrate Valentine’s Day on Friday. But some came up with creative ways to declare their love.
In a nod to the scarcity of fresh vegetables, people ordered nicely wrapped bouquets of broccoli, cauliflowers and snacks, according to data from the delivery service Meituan. Others sent face masks, goggles and wipes, the data showed.
Online meal orders also reflected the crisis at hand. Last Valentine’s Day, the most popular orders were steak sets for two, hot pot and Cantonese food. This year, the top choices included simpler options — pizza and basic Chinese meals.
Hotels, of course, have seen bookings plummet. Zhang Lu, vice president of Myriad, a chain of 40 “love hotels” across the country, said most of them were closed on government orders. Some were being used as quarantine sites.
“I really hope this is going to end soon,” Ms. Zhang said.
Many people were stranded far from their significant others because of travel restrictions. On the social platform Weibo, people shared makeup tips for online video chats and recipes for homemade meals, under the trending topic “it’s a long-distance relationship for everyone this year.”
For florists who count on Valentine’s Day business, the situation was brutal. In Dounan Flower Market in the southwestern province of Yunnan, sellers had to dump millions of roses, according to a report by Jiemian, a Chinese news site. The price of roses had collapsed while the cost of delivery soared.
“Right now many people are worried about whether they can buy enough food,” one seller said. “They are not in the mood for flowers.”
SINGAPORE PRIME MINISTER SAYS THE CORONAVIRUS COULD LEAD TO A RECESSION.
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore, said on Friday that it was possible the city-state could fall into recession as the coronavirus spreads.
“I think the impact will be significant at least in the next couple of quarters,” said Mr. Lee, in a video posted on his Facebook page.
At Singapore Changi Airport, the number of flights has fallen by a third and travelers who have recently visited mainland China are not allowed to disembark.
“It’s a very intense outbreak,” said Mr. Lee, who visited the airport to show his support for the workers there. “It is already much more than SARS, and economies of the region are much more interlinked together.”
Singapore, whose economy is particularly sensitive to global fluctuations, has already seen a slowdown in growth. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.7 percent in 2019, compared to 3.1 percent the year before, according to government statistics.
“China particularly is a much bigger factor in the region and therefore I can’t say whether we’ll have a recession or not,” Mr. Lee added. “It’s possible, but definitely our economy will take a hit.”
THE U.S. SAYS IT WILL APPROVE AID TO NORTH KOREA TO FIGHT THE CORONAVIRUS THERE.
The United States said on Friday that it would approve humanitarian assistance to North Korea to help international aid agencies fight the coronavirus there, amid fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak.
North Korea has not reported any cases of the new coronavirus. But in the past week, some South Korean news reports, citing unnamed sources within the secretive North, said there had been deaths in the country that were suspected to be related to the virus. The reports could not be confirmed.
North Korea shares a 930-mile border with China, where the coronavirus emerged, and has taken aggressive steps to prevent its spread, including suspending all flights and trains to and from China.
North Korea’s public health system remains dysfunctional, and the travel restrictions have made it more difficult for the North to buy or smuggle medicine, goods and other supplies from China. Relief organizations have complained that American-led U.N. sanctions have blocked them from quickly approving aid.
This week, the Red Cross called for a sanctions exemption allowing it to transfer money to its office in North Korea, describing it as “a lifesaving intervention.” It cited an urgent need for personal protective gear and testing kits to prepare for an outbreak in North Korea.
The United States has similarly expressed alarm, saying it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement on Thursday.
She added that Washington encourages American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
[ THE RESPONSE IN Pyongyang: North Korea has sealed its border with China, but there are fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak. SEE BELOW]
Wuhan doctor issues a rare public rebuke of the government’s handling of the crisis.
The Chinese government failed to sound a public warning in the early days of the outbreak even though scientists were aware of human-to-human transmission, a doctor from Wuhan wrote in a paper published by the Lancet this week.
Dr. Zhang Hong of Zhongnan Hospital wrote that the local authorities allowed more than 5 million people to leave Wuhan to travel for the Lunar New Year holiday despite warnings from Chinese scientists.
“Early detection and early reporting were delayed,” Dr. Zhang wrote.
The paper was a rare instance of a medical professional criticizing the government, especially at a time when doctors and nurses have come under pressure not to speak out. Dr. Zhang also wrote that doctors did not understand the severity and contagiousness of the new coronavirus early on, and that medical workers failed to fully protect themselves as a result.
He wrote that the supplies of protective equipment in hospitals are severely insufficient, and were worsened by the implementation of traffic controls after the government sealed off cities across China. He called on the government to “pay attention to the front-line doctors and provide adequate protective equipment to reduce their risk of infection.”
Overstretched hospitals were forced to turn patients away as the virus spread, “inevitably increasing morbidity and mortality,” he added.
The authorities in Wuhan have admitted that public announcements about the virus were delayed. In late January, when the outbreak was spreading throughout Wuhan, the city’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, acknowledged that the disclosures had not been timely, but said his hands were tied because he could only publicize it “in accordance with the law.”
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Reporting and research was contributed by Sui-Lee Wee, Choe Sang-Hun, Richard C. Paddock, Elaine Yu, Motoko Rich, Lin Qiqing, Karen Zraick, Amie Tsang, Amber Wang, Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Yiwei Wang, and Claire Fu.
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How the Coronavirus Numbers Changed So Sharply
A new way of counting used by the Chinese authorities should catch more cases and get people into treatment earlier. But the scale of the epidemic will remain unclear for some time.
By Richard PÉREZ-PEÑA | Published Feb. 13, 2020 Updated Feb. 14, 2020, 9:46 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
The number of cases and deaths in the coronavirus epidemic in China jumped sharply on Thursday as the authorities there changed how they keep track of the disease, and not, primarily, because of any change in the shape of the outbreak.
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the true numbers — as with any new disease — and that will continue for the foreseeable future. Underscoring that point, hours after China revised its figures, the World Health Organization put out a lower set, saying that for now, it would not change the way it counts.
But experts say there were good reasons for changing the way patients with the disease, newly named Covid-19, were counted, and the new approach should catch many cases that had been missed before. That will allow more patients to get treatment and be quarantined faster.
Here is a look at what we know — and what we don’t — about the new coronavirus numbers and what they say about the scope of the crisis.
HOW DID THE NUMBERS CHANGE?
For several days, the Chinese government had reported figures that suggested the spread of the disease was slowing, but that changed abruptly on Thursday.
Officials in Hubei, the Chinese province that is the epicenter of the outbreak, said there had been more than 48,000 cases there, a 44 percent jump from the day before. They also reported 1,310 deaths, a 23 percent increase. The trend continued on Friday, though not as markedly, when Hubei officials disclosed another 4,800 cases and 116 more deaths.
Previously, cases were counted only if patients tested positive for the new virus. Now, the figures appear to include anyone who has a CT scan of the lungs showing a telltale pattern of pneumonia.
In the short run, the new accounting may deepen confusion about the true size of the epidemic. It also complicates efforts to track the growth of the disease over the last several weeks.
“We need to be careful in interpreting these numbers,” Dr. Michael Ryan, the World Health Organization’s emergency responses chief, said on Thursday. The larger number of cases, he said, “does not represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak.”
The W.H.O. then released its own figures, leaving out the diagnoses made without a positive test for the virus — and indicating that it did not fully understand the change China had made.
“For consistency, we report here only the number of laboratory-confirmed cases,” the organization said in a situation report. “W.H.O. has formally requested additional information on the clinically diagnosed cases, in particular when these have occurred in the course of the outbreak and whether suspect cases were reclassified as clinically diagnosed cases.”
The W.H.O. reported almost 47,000 confirmed cases worldwide, fewer than 1 percent outside mainland China. The Chinese figures put the total at more than 61,000 cases.
Release of information on infected medical workers underscores risks.
For more than a month, medical workers in Hubei, the province at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, have been working nearly nonstop even as they struggled with a shortage of personal protective equipment such as masks, gowns and safety goggles.
For the first time on Friday, China disclosed figures that drove home the risks faced by those on the front line: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. Of those people, 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan, the provincial capital and the center of the outbreak.
The announcement was the first official confirmation about the number of infected medical workers, and is likely to ratchet up fears about the spread of the virus.
“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Health care workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”
[A MEDICAL WORKER Dies: The death of the doctor whose warnings about the coronavirus were silenced has become a potent symbol of Beijing’s failures. SEE TIMELINE]
Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said the numbers of infected workers represented 3.8 percent of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11.
He added that further research was needed to ascertain whether the infections spread throughout the hospital or within the community.
Medical workers, struggling to both treat patients and keep themselves safe, have resorted to begging from friends, putting out frequent calls for donations, and using tape to patch up torn masks and gowns.
Many doctors and nurses there say they eat just one meal a day because going to the restroom means removing and discarding safety gowns that they would not be able to replace.
During the SARS outbreak of 2002-3, 961 medical workers were infected, representing 18 percent of all infections, according to government data. About 1 percent of the medical workers infected with SARS died, a medical expert, Xu Dezhong, told Xinhua, China’s official news agency.
WHAT WAS WRONG WITH THE OLD WAY OF COUNTING?
In a word, plenty.
Kits to test for the virus are not being produced quickly enough to keep up with demand, and they take days to produce results. Using CT scans means more patients can be checked, with the results available almost immediately.
And the tests for the virus have not been very reliable. Many sick people have tested negative, only to test positive later. That appears to be, at least in part, because standard testing involves swabbing nasal passages and the throat, while the virus may be lodged in the lungs.
In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shipped hundreds of testing kits to state laboratories — and days later revealed that some of them were faulty. It is not clear whether China has experienced similar problems in making the tests.
No.
There are several ways cases might still be missed. Some people get sick, and die or recover, without ever seeing a doctor. CT scans allow doctors to identify people whose infections have caused pneumonia, which can be fatal, but the scans will not catch people with milder symptoms.
There is another source of confusion about the numbers. It was reported this week that China is no longer counting as confirmed cases people who test positive for the virus yet show no symptoms. But some experts said they were not sure what had actually changed.
The Chinese health authorities say they can distinguish, on a CT scan, pneumonia brought on by the coronavirus from some other serious lung diseases. But it is not clear that they can tell it from pneumonia caused by other diseases, like seasonal influenza; the accuracy may vary with the skill of the doctor reading the scan.
WILL WE EVENTUALLY GET MORE ACCURATE FIGURES?
Quite possibly.
Right now, labs are testing for the virus itself, and viruses can be hard to detect. What is often easier to identify is the immune system's own response.
When a patient contracts an infection, the body produces antibodies to it — proteins in the blood that recognize a particular pathogen and trigger an immune system attack on it. Labs around the world are working to develop a test for antibodies to the new coronavirus, but none is available yet.
It could be tricky.
There are several strains of coronavirus in humans, including ones that cause common colds, SARS and MERS. Antibodies to the new virus may be hard to distinguish from the antibodies people already have to other coronaviruses.
In any case, it can take days or weeks before a patient tests positive for antibodies to a new infection, so the test may not be useful in diagnosing current illnesses.
So while an effective antibody test may produce a fairly comprehensive picture of an outbreak, that picture will lag a bit behind the reality.
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U.S. SUPPORTS AID TO NORTH KOREA FOR FIGHTING THE CORONAVIRUS The North has reported no cases of the virus, but relief groups say it is woefully unprepared to deal with an outbreak.
By Choe Sang-Hun | Published Feb. 14, 2020, 2:43 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
SEOUL, South Korea — The United States said it would approve humanitarian assistance to North Korea to help international aid agencies fight the coronavirus there, amid fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak.
North Korea has not reported any cases of the new coronavirus. But in the past week, some South Korean news reports, citing unnamed sources within the secretive North, said there had been deaths that were suspected to be related to the virus. The reports could not be confirmed.
North Korea shares a 930-mile border with China, where the coronavirus emerged. It has since spread to numerous countries; more than 1,300 deaths have been reported, almost all of them in China.
North Korea has taken aggressive steps to keep the virus out, including suspending all flights and trains to and from China. But the border has long been porous for smugglers, who ferry goods across the shallow river frontier that separates the two countries.
North Korea’s public health system is dysfunctional, and the travel restrictions have made it harder for the North to buy or smuggle medicine, goods or other supplies from China. Relief organizations have complained that American-led international sanctions against the North, imposed because of its nuclear weapons program, have prevented them from providing aid quickly.
This week, the Red Cross called for a sanctions exemption that would let it transfer money to its office in North Korea, describing it as “a lifesaving intervention.” It cited an urgent need for personal protective gear and testing kits to prepare for a possible outbreak in the North.
The United States has also expressed alarm, and it said on Thursday that it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement. She added that Washington encouraged American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
“The United States is ready and prepared to expeditiously facilitate the approval of assistance from these organizations,” she said.
So far, North Korea has said nothing about how many people it may have quarantined or tested for the virus. But it is clearly taking the threat seriously, having suspended international tourism and, more recently, extended the quarantine period for people with coronavirus symptoms, from 14 days to 30 days.
Its state media has carried photos of mask-wearing officials holding emergency meetings at disease-control centers and disinfecting ports and train stations. The North also asked South Korean officials to vacate a joint liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong as a precaution against the virus.
​Earlier this month, state media said health officials had stepped up inspections on “all routes leading to the capital city,” Pyongyang, which is home to North Korea’s elite, including the top leader, Kim Jong-un. It said the authorities were requiring all people passing through Pyongyang’s main train station to wear masks.
The United States has also expressed alarm, and it said on Thursday that it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement. She added that Washington encouraged American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
“The United States is ready and prepared to expeditiously facilitate the approval of assistance from these organizations,” she said.
So far, North Korea has said nothing about how many people it may have quarantined or tested for the virus. But it is clearly taking the threat seriously, having suspended international tourism and, more recently, extended the quarantine period for people with coronavirus symptoms, from 14 days to 30 days.
Its state media has carried photos of mask-wearing officials holding emergency meetings at disease-control centers and disinfecting ports and train stations. The North also asked South Korean officials to vacate a joint liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong as a precaution against the virus.
​Earlier this month, state media said health officials had stepped up inspections on “all routes leading to the capital city,” Pyongyang, which is home to North Korea’s elite, including the top leader, Kim Jong-un. It said the authorities were requiring all people passing through Pyongyang’s main train station to wear masks.
Amid the many signs that North Korea fears an outbreak, its state media has reported no public appearances by Mr. Kim since he watched a concert​ in Pyongyang a few weeks ago.
Liberty Post Korea, a Seoul-based website run by a North Korean defector, reported last week that 4,000 North Koreans had been ​placed under special monitoring for​ symptoms in one northern province ​bordering China, and that 720 had been quarantined in hospitals. The report quoted an unidentified source in the North and could not be independently verified.
Daily NK, another ​Seoul-based website that relies on anonymous sources inside the North, reported last week that five people had died in hospitals in another northern province after suffering from fevers, and that people there had speculated that they died from the coronavirus.
As North Korea shut its ports and borders to foreign goods and summoned back​ officials who had been earning hard currency​ in China​, quarantining them on the border, both commodity prices and exchange rates have ​begun rising in some northern towns, Daily NK said. North Korea’s military​ has also been smuggling in​ large ​quantities of South Korean face masks​ through China, it ​said.
Kim Seung-eun, a ​Christian ​pastor​ and human rights activist​ in South Korea who ​works with informants inside the North, said on Friday that he had not heard of any deaths from the coronavirus in the country.
He said the North Korean authorities had drastically stepped up border controls, even ordering guards to fire at those attempting to cross the border illegally. That draconian measure has made it impossible for groups like his to smuggle refugees out of North Korea, he said.
“North Korea has to take such an extreme step because their medical infrastructure is so bad that if an epidemic breaks out, it could run out of control,” Mr. Kim said.
The coronavirus emerged as North Korea seemed to be retreating from a period of relative openness, with the diplomacy between Kim Jong-un and President Trump having produced no concrete agreements on ending the North’s nuclear arms program or the international sanctions. In recent months, North Korea has opened resort towns ​in hopes of attracting Chinese visitors ​and badly needed tourist cash. But the coronavirus has halted that effort.
​Mr. Kim, the pastor, said the prolonged border shutdown had already caused hardship for North Koreans who rely on trading and smuggling for a living. With goods smuggled from China getting more expensive, traders have begun hoarding commodities in the expectation of further price increases, he said.
Mr. Kim reported no civil disturbances but said the disruptions in border trade could hurt the national economy. More than 90 percent of North Korea’s official external trade goes through China.
“North Korea is under increasing stress because of the coronavirus outbreak in China,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor in the international studies division at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “The revenue stream Kim was anticipating from tourism is running dry and the informal economy is suffering from draconian border and travel restrictions.”
“North Korea may be on lockdown now, but it will soon be in need of economic concessions,” he added.
That raises the possibility that Pyongyang could return to diplomacy — or resume weapons tests to strengthen its negotiating hand, analysts said. ​
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Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk
Psychologists say that differing responses to coronavirus and the flu illustrate our shortcomings when it comes to evaluating danger.
By Max Fisher | Published Feb. 13, 2020Updated Feb. 14, 2020, 6:31 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
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Shortly after the University of Washington announced that the school’s fourth suspected case of the new coronavirus had turned out negative, two professors, one of public policy and the other of public health, held a small dinner for students and faculty members.
Like everywhere else on campus, and in much of the world, the coronavirus was all anybody could talk about.
But one of the attendees, a public health student, had had enough. Exasperated, she rattled off a set of statistics.
The virus had killed about 1,100 worldwide and infected around a dozen in the United States. Alarming, but a much more common illness, influenza, kills about 400,000 people every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu season and 61,099 the year before.
There remains deep uncertainty about the new coronavirus' mortality rate, with the high-end estimate that it is up to 20 times that of the flu, but some estimates go as low as 0.16 percent for those affected outside of China’s overwhelmed Hubei province. About on par with the flu.
Wasn’t there something strange, the student asked, about the extreme disparity in public reactions?
Ann Bostrom, the dinner’s public policy co-host, laughed when she recounted the evening. The student was right about the viruses, but not about people, said Dr. Bostrom, who is an expert on the psychology of how humans evaluate risk.
While the metrics of public health might put the flu alongside or even ahead of the new coronavirus for sheer deadliness, she said, the mind has its own ways of measuring danger. And the new coronavirus disease, named COVID-19 hits nearly every cognitive trigger we have.
That explains the GLOBAL WAVE of ANXIETY.
Of course, it is far from irrational to feel some fear about the coronavirus outbreak tearing through China and beyond.
But there is a lesson, psychologists and public health experts say, in the near-terror that the virus induces, even as serious threats like the flu receive little more than a shrug. It illustrates the unconscious biases in how human beings think about risk, as well as the impulses that often guide our responses — sometimes with serious consequences.
How Our Brains Evaluate Threat
Experts used to believe that people gauged risk like actuaries, parsing out cost-benefit analyses every time a merging car came too close or local crime rates spiked. But a wave of psychological experiments in the 1980s upended this thinking.
Researchers found that people use a set of mental shortcuts for measuring danger. And they tend to do it unconsciously, meaning that instinct can play a much larger role than they realize.
The world is full of risks, big and small. Ideally, these shortcuts help people figure out which ones to worry about and which to disregard. But they can be imperfect.
The coronavirus may be a case in point.
“This hits all the hot buttons that lead to heightened risk perception,” said Paul Slovic, a University of Oregon psychologist who helped pioneer modern risk psychology.
When you encounter a potential risk, your brain does a quick search for past experiences with it. If it can easily pull up multiple alarming memories, then your brain concludes the danger is high. But it often fails to assess whether those memories are truly representative.
A classic example is airplane crashes.
If two happen in quick succession, flying suddenly feels scarier — even if your conscious mind knows that those crashes are a statistical aberration with little bearing on the safety of your next flight. But if you then take a few flights and nothing goes wrong, your brain will most likely start telling you again that flying is safe.
When it comes to the coronavirus, Dr. Slovic said, it’s as if people are experiencing one report after another of planes crashing.
“We’re hearing about the fatalities,” he said. “We’re not hearing about the 98 or so percent of people who are recovering from it and may have had mild cases.”
That tendency can cut in both directions, leading not to undue alarm but undue complacency. Though flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year, most peoples’ experiences with it are relatively mundane.
Being told how dangerous flu is does little to change this, studies find. The brain’s risk assessment approach simply overwhelms rational calculation — a source of endless consternation to health officials trying to raise flu vaccination rates.
“We’re conditioned by our experiences,” Dr. Slovic said. “But experience can mislead us to be too comfortable with things.”
Biases, Shortcuts and Gut Instincts
The coronavirus also taps into other psychological shortcuts for assessing risk.
One involves novelty: We are conditioned to focus heavily on new threats, looking for any cause for alarm. This can lead us to obsess over the scariest reports and worst-case scenarios, making the danger seem bigger still.
Maybe the MOST POWERFUL SHORTCUT of all is EMOTION.
Assessing the danger posed by the coronavirus is extraordinarily difficult; even scientists are unsure. But our brains act as if they have an easier way: They translate gut emotional reactions into what we believe are reasoned conclusions, even if hard data tells us otherwise.
“The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality,” Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, wrote in a 2011 book. “Our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed.”
In extreme cases, this can lead to a “crowding-out effect,” Dr. Bostrom said, as our emotional impulses overwhelm our cognitive faculties. The coronavirus hits a number of those triggers, often quite hard.
ONE IS DREAD.
If a risk seems especially painful or disturbing, people tend to raise their estimate of how likely it is to happen to them. Reports on the coronavirus often feature upsetting imagery: unhygienic food markets, city-scale lockdowns and overcrowded hospitals.
Another trigger is a threat that is not fully understood. The less known it is, the more people may fear it, and overestimate its threat.
Threats that feel out of control, like a runaway disease outbreak, prompt a similar response, leading people to seek ways to reimpose control, for instance by hoarding supplies.
Risks that we take on voluntarily, or that at least feel voluntary, are often seen as less dangerous than they really are. One study found that people will raise their threshold for the amount of danger they are willing to take on by a factor of one thousand if they see the risk as voluntary.
If that number sounds high, consider that driving, a danger most take on voluntarily, kills over 40,000 Americans every year. But terrorism, a threat imposed on us, kills fewer than 100.
There are countless rational reasons that terrorism provokes a sharper response than traffic deaths. The same goes for a fast-spreading and little-understood outbreak versus the familiar flu.
And that is exactly the point, psychologists say.
“All of these things play on our feelings,” Dr. Slovic said. “And that’s the representation of threat for us. Not the statistics of risk, but the feelings of risk.”
Making Choices
All those emotions can have real consequences.
Consider the response to the partial meltdown of the nuclear plant at Three Mile Island, in Pennsylvania, in 1979. Though the incident caused no deaths, it led to public demand to turn from nuclear power to fossil fuels whose impact on air quality, alone, is thought to cause thousands of premature deaths every year.
That calculus confounded old-school economists, who saw it as irrational. One leading nuclear power expert called it “insane.”
But it also helped give rise to new psychological models for how people measure risk.
“Our feelings don’t do arithmetic very well,” Dr. Slovic said.
That can be especially true when judging low-probability, high-risk threats like nuclear war, terrorism — or dying from the coronavirus or the flu.
Our minds tend to either “round down” the probability to “basically zero” and we underreact, Dr. Slovic said. Or we focus on the worst-case outcome, he said, which “gives us a strong feeling, so we overreact.”
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karthickw9 · 4 years ago
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Modernizing the Actuarial Outsourcing Operating Model
The role of actuarial services is essential to the various crucial aspects of insurers’ operations, reserving, underwriting, pricing, reinsurance, and risk & capital, bestowing opportunities to add value to an insurance firm’s functioning or the broader business while still also fulfilling the governing requirements. Worldwide, for many years, insurers are taking the help of actuarial insurance services and assigning work to third-party service providers or captive units. 
Over the past few years, there has been rekindled interest in actuarial outsourcing, with a growing number of insurers either establishing new outsourcing units or developing their existing ones.
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This movement is particularly valid for life insurance firms that are under immense pressure to lower costs, principally in the face of challenging regulatory fluctuations. To unearth trends associated with actuarial services in the insurance industry, consultants are conducting surveys of outsourcing units of insurers with international operations. While the results of the surveys endorse some widespread notions, they also reveal some emerging trends.
Not all Actuarial Work is Genuinely Actuarial
Actuarial firms have been unaffected by cost pressures due to the intricate nature of the work of their employees. However, it is quite clear now that not all actuarial work is really actuarial and some tasks such as data manipulation must be transferred, automated, or shared with other units. 
This is making top executives of companies reconsider what an actuarial division should look like, how it should function, and what the outlay should be. Gradually, the actuarial unit must be able to: 
Offer more value-add with fewer headcount. 
Plan and implement a governance structure for actuarial assumptions, processes, and methodologies to deliver visible audit trails and give assurance to regulators, external audiences, and management.
Produce more awareness and foresight, less hindsight, and data management. 
Handle increasingly intricate actuarial models that necessitate complex calculations for budgeting, planning, pricing, forecasting, product development, financial reporting, and asset-liability management.
Find innovative ways of getting things done by developing new, tech-aided processes to achieve functioning tasks and fulfil planned objectives. 
Prepare and purposefully invest in next-gen tech that is more customizable, automated, and flexible. This will involve investments and groundwork in technical infrastructure, clean liability and asset data, and well-regulated assumptions and models. 
Generate more advanced analysis that links past performance to forward-looking estimates and offers a drivers-based viewpoint of variations. 
Offer financial reports swiftly and correctly and be able to describe qualitatively and quantitatively outcomes and drivers, accounting base differences, and anticipations.
Connect and combine with associated functions to alleviate the risk of     talent gaps and support appropriate leadership from the actuarial     function.
Modernizing the Model 
Actuarial modernization can help insurers evaluate and change systems, people, and processes in both decentralized and centralized operating models. When conceived and executed hand-in-hand with top executives and other key company functions, especially IT and finance, actuarial modernization can enhance the general value of the function as a vital contributor to strategic financial and business decision making. Actuarial modernization comprises several components that when employed in concert, can push robust efficiencies across the firm. To modernize the actuarial operating model holistically, businesses must understand the conventional and modern views of these seven operational modules and the methods by which they interact- people & talent, governance, process, service delivery, technology, data, and policies & procedures.
Conventionally, actuaries have played a role of stewardship, one centered on making financial statements for the purpose of compliance. Today, however, senior executives consider company actuaries to be more strategic and proactive. By adopting a new, tech-powered operating model that liberates them from the limitations of business as usual, outsourced actuaries can offer valuable insights more swiftly and economically, develop their skill sets, and become facilitators for strategic change.
For more information: WNS Global Services
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relyservices1 · 5 years ago
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Useful Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing.
Tips for Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing? Well, there are a few really good ones. How about Insurance BPO Outsourcing? That's right, using a third-party partner to handle your Insurance BPO Services.
Like many business sectors, the Insurance Industry has been turned upside down in the past few years.
Confronting the challenges of increased operating costs, reduced demand, and decreased growth in developed markets, cutting operating costs becomes more and more critical. These new realities are pressuring both huge players in the business and smaller brokers offering all kinds of insurance.
And, large or small, the challenge- and the answer - is the same.
In any business, the bottom line is the bottom line. There are fixed operating costs that seem only to increase, no matter what actions are taken to reduce them:
1. Escalating government regulation
2. Increased administration & compliance costs
3. The effect of Climate Change on increasing damage claims from fires, floods, and hurricanes
4. Aging populations with increasing medical claims
5. The rising cost of health care & long-term product liability claims
And through it all, businesses need to continually show an increasing profit to remain viable and vibrant. They need to maintain a public image and an online presence that will always promote new customers. They need to invest in new technologies to keep up to date with current social trends.
These new realities are pressuring the prominent players in the business and smaller brokers offering all kinds of insurance. And, large or small, the challenge- and the answer- is the same.
Partner with an Insurance Process Outsourcing Company - a BPO- that can provide quick and accurate Insurance Processing Services at affordable rates, making it the perfect choice for any size business in this sector!
Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing.
It All Started in Babylonia.
The business of insurance has been around since the 3rd century BC, developed by Babylonian Traders.
As we know it today, property insurance can be traced to the Great Fire of London, which in 1666 devoured more than 13,000 houses. The devastating effects of the fire converted the development of insurance "from a matter of convenience" into one of urgency, a change of opinion reflected in Sir Christopher Wren's inclusion of a site for 'the Insurance Office' in his new plan for London in 1667.
The first company to offer life insurance was the Amicable Society for a Perpetual Assurance Office, founded in London in 1706.
In the late 19th century, "accident insurance" began to become available. The first company to offer it was the Railway Passengers Assurance Company, formed in 1848 in England to insure against the rising number of fatalities on the then-new railway system.
Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing.
Look No Further Than a BPO!
Tips for Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing? One thing the Insurance Industry shares with other industries are escalating expenses. Just like the certainty that actuary tables provide vital statistics, rising costs are a reality.
Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing? A BPO has the tools that will result in better customer engagement and improved operational performance, thus supporting the entire insurance value chain. They've developed software that can give you a snapshot of the customer, increasing conversion rates. BPOs can reduce operational costs with unique business methods.
Updating Prospects and Market Research Data Entry
Excellent maintenance of Insurance Data Mining
Experienced professionals handling your account
Error-Free Data Entry Services
24 X 7 Customer Service
Simplified and Improved Business Process
Reduced Operational Cost
Better Customer Engagement
Consider the other ways a Business Process Outsource firm can help you control costs by organizing and storing the following forms:
Uniform Billing Health Insurance Claims
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
ADA Claims
Disability Claims
Dismemberment Claims
Medical-Claim Data Entry
Critical Illness Claims
Hospitalization Claims
With sophisticated data entry and retrieval tools, both the blank and completed forms are available to your chosen staff in the blink of an eye. Take the guesswork out of filing and retrieving the vast amount of records generated. If your business is still in the paper age, a BPO can migrate your data to digital- all of it- and continue with digital going forward.
A BPO's expert professionals can help you control costs by organizing and storing the various records and forms that the insurance industry runs on.
But (as they say) wait! There's more! A whole lot more. Here are some of the key points you should look for:
Data Security - BPO security systems set the standard for their sector. The good ones have never had a successful targeted or random data breach never lost any data due to a network, system, or server failure. This is a significant factor
Quality Services - BPO's have stringent quality control and even a dedicated team of inspectors that make sure their work for you is accurate and complete.
Transparency - All the actions and services a quality BPO provides are an open book. They are ready at any time to give you a full accounting of what they've done for you.
Quick Turnaround Time - The global nature of today's BPOs can result in head-snapping speed for your project. If you send an assignment at the end of your business day, it should be waiting, completed, and QA'd when you return in the morning.
Ease of Implementation - Connecting with a BPO should be surprisingly easy. They're accustomed to integrating with a large variety of different business practices and will quickly incorporate your standards into their workflow.
Supportive and Excellent Staff - BPOs are specialists in providing the quickest, most accurate results in your sector. Being professionals, they take great pride in their work and are only satisfied when you are happy.
Economical - The BPO you choose should do the best work at the best price in the industry. They can scale your dedicated team to ensure that you're getting exactly what you need, not more, not less, freeing up your core staff to do the more creative part of the process.
Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing. Call Rely Services!
Tips For Successful Insurance Process Outsourcing. Why not partner with an Insurance Business Process Outsourcing Company- a BPO- that can provide quick, accurate, and secure Insurance process services at affordable rates, making it the perfect choice for any size business in this sector! Why not partner with Rely Services?
So, when you decide to partner with a BPO, why not choose a firm with over 20 years experience? Rely Services is the logical choice for your insurance business. Contact Rely Services today for a no-cost evaluation of your business and how we can help. Call us at 847.310.8750.
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Actuarial Method Assignments
Actuarial Science includes a number of interrelated subjects, including mathematics, probability theory, statistics, finance, economics, and computer science. Actuarial methods overlap with biostatistics in a number of important areas. We at StatisticsHomeworkTutors.com deals with all the topics studied under Actuarial Science. Some of the topics which it includes are:  Economics, Enrolled Actuary- Ea Exams, Enterprise Risk Management, Finance and Financial Reporting for Actuarial Science, Financial and investment mathematics, International monetary economics, Introduction to Mathematics, Calculus, Probability and Investments & Asset Management, Law and many more. Incase you have any urgent Actuarial Science Assignments or Actuarial Science Homework’s you can contact us anytime and our professional writers will help you out in every possible way.
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michaeldhaskell6 · 5 years ago
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Nine Times To remember From Vampire Love Story.
Tips For Finding The Right Life Coverage For Yourself
For that passion for your loved ones getting life insurance is vital. Life coverage will give you financial help to those who depend upon your income, in the even of your own death. Undergo this informative article and see what you could learn in relation to obtaining the right insurance coverage policy along with the top deals.
Take into consideration your family’s financial obligations while you are determining the correct amount of coverage. Choose a policy adapted on the specific needs of your family after you are gone. The objective is to ensure that you carry enough life insurance coverage to offer to your members of the family in the case anything transpires with you.
You should compare the values provided by multiple insurance providers before selecting one to use. There exists huge variability (as much as 50%) in premiums for comparable policies, so use internet-based quote comparison sites to ferret out your best deals. Make sure that any quotes you receive consider your health background.
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A straightforward method of getting cheaper life insurance coverage is simply by making sure you happen to be as healthy as you possibly can. Most insurers give those people who are healthier better deals because they are less vulnerable to developing a condition arise that may cut their life short early.
Avoid high commission when buying an insurance policy. Your broker and insurance broker are paid through this, and this price is also in your premiums. You may be able to locate a company that offers insurance without having an agent’s commission being put into it.
If you have, this may reduce your premium.
Prior to agree to an existence insurance coverage, get many quotes from different companies. Life insurance companies don’t all make use of the same actuarial tables they assign different relative weights for the factors they utilize setting a premium. If you smoke, you must take special note of the variation in quoted premiums, and do what you are able for the greatest deal by meeting with several agents.
A grieving family should never have to bother about financial issues when mourning a loved one vampire images When you die, life for the dependents should go on, and they will need to have enough income to aid themselves and also to pay for the bills. Utilize the advice out of this article and it is possible to find the right life insurance coverage for you and your family..
from 2000 Things I like To Do http://www.aac2000.org/nine-times-to-remember-from-vampire-love-story/
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codeavailfan · 5 years ago
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Data Science vs Statistics Best Ever Comparison
Types of Data Science  Statistics vs Data Science 
“A data scientist is someone who is better at statistics than any software engineer and better at software engineering than any statistician.”
A very complex mess that disrupts the minds of good businessmen, students and many others. Many people are thrown into both aspects because they have the same qualities and the same function. Therefore, to remove the confusion of this word, this blog will help to separate data and data.
Data lightning is usually a matter of learning from data, which is a matter of data. Data power is generally called the evolution of data, work-based and calculated.
Data science vs statistics  are conditions for a narrow approach to data science, and data has boundary ideas that carry the original. To develop some analyst perspective, this white paper supports the main tent perspective on data research. We therefore analyze how development methods associated with data research today identify the current measurement index.
For example, research analysis, AI, fertility, calculation, correspondence and pre-conception duties. Provide promising titles for communication, education and research to find out what this example means for the introvision's fate.
Let's start learning data and data in a simple and simple way, and clear all doubts related to both words.
Statistics:
Word numbers are defined by the American Statistical Association (ASA), which defines the uncertainty of large data as lightning that learns, takes steps, communicates and controls. But this definition is not perfect, and most statisticians disagree with this definition. This is the starting point for difficult genetics. It seems to be a set of definitions provided on the front page of Markward (1987) and Wild (1994), by Chambers (1993), "The Beaver Statistics", "The Beaver Statistics", "The Wide Fielder", by Brown and Case (2009) and "The Wide Fielder", and Han and Dosoyanaka (2012)
There are two basic ideas for statistics: "fluctuations and uncertainty." There are many problems in our daily lives where results are uncertain in the electricity market. Similarly, uncertainty can be understood in two types, for example.
Uncertainty occurs, but the outcome of the problem has not yet been defined.
For example, we don't know if the weather is good tomorrow.
This is another form of uncertainty because the results have already been defined, but we do not know.
For example, you don't know if you have passed a competition test
There are several types of Statistics:
Analysis of variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Regression analysis
Variance
Mean
Data Science:
Data science is an object that provides systematic, logical and meaningful information that is used in complex data and large amounts of data. In other words, data lightning is a study of information that is derived from the information described, and can be converted into a valuable instrument of business and IT strategy.
Drilling all the large unorganised and structured data to know the model can help to improve system control and efficiency, cost, identify new market opportunities and improve the organization's ambitious power.
Data visual programming combines skill, domain skills and statistical and mathematical data to extract the logical forms of data. Data scientists set up artificial intelligence (AI) systems that work for the human intelligence requirement without using other functions, videos, images, audio and machine learning algorithms. These systems can help entrepreneurs to increase their business value.
Nate Silver was named as a statistician, familiar with the statistics. He and many other statisticians argue that data science is another statistical name, not a new field in data analysis.
Some argue that data is different from the data-specific data because it focuses only on digital data-specific technologies and problems. Some people say that data power is not an essential part of the data.
In other words, David Donohoe says that data is similar to data based on the size of a data set or the use of computing, and is the foundation of data science programs that mislead analysis and statistical training with multiple product details. Therefore, it describes data data as areas affected by traditional data.
Types of Data Science
Data Engineers
Actuarial Scientist
Mathematician
Software Programming Analysts.
Statistician
Business Analytic Practitioners
Machine Learning Scientists
Comparison of Data Science vs Statistics
Title
Data science
Statistics
Concept
1. It uses advanced statistics and mathematics to obtain current data from big data.
2. It Supports scientific computing techniques.
3. A large-scale development which includes programming, knowledge of business models, trends, and more.
4. It Includes Business models, machine learning and different analytics processes.
1. It uses different statistics algorithms and functions on kits of data to find values for the current problem.
2. It is the science of data.
3. statistics use to rank or measure an attribute
Meaning
1. It fully Extracts the insight information from structured data or unstructured data. 
2. An interdisciplinary field of scientific methods.
3. It is the same as data mining algorithms and processes and systems use.
1. Designs data gathering, analysis, and representation for more evaluations.
2. It is the branch of MathematicsIt presents the several ways in designing data.
3. Implement programs for designing experiments
Application areas
1. Finance
2. Engineering, Manufacturing
3. Market analysis 
4. Health care system etc.
1.Astronomy
2. Psychology
3. Industry
4. Biology and physical sciences
5. Economics, population studies
6. Commerce and trade etc.
Basis of Formation
1. It Helps in decision making
2. To resolve data associated problems
3. Design huge data for analysis towards understanding courses, patterns, styles and business execution
1. It Helps in decision making
2. Design data in the kind of Graphs, charts, tables
3. Understand techniques in data analysis
4. To create and express real-world problems based on data
Some Basic comparison of Statistics vs Data Science on the basis of work
Title
Data science
statistics
Mode
Consultative
Reactive
Inputs
A Business problems
Data file, Hypothesis
Data Size
Gigabytes
Kilobytes
Nouns
Data Visualization
Tables
Output
Data App/ data product
Report
Star
Hilary MasonNate Silver
G.E.P BoxTrevor Hastie
Tools
R, Python, Hadoop, Linux, Awk
SAS, Mainframe
Data
Distributed, Messy, Unstructured
Pre-Prepared, Clean
Works
In team
solo
Focus
Prediction(what)
Interference(Why)
Latency
Seconds
Weeks
 Conclusion: 
In conclusion, By this blog data science vs statistics you must have learned a lot of things like, two different comparisons- one is of the properties and another one is based on work on which characteristics they both are working. You also learn about the data Science definition and types. Similarly Statistics definition and types.
Our experts will provide you the best knowledge related to every topic you want. Therefore, I think that this blog will definitely clear every doubt which creates in most people’s minds which mainly related to the similarities of statistics vs Data Science.
As a result, if you want Statistics Assignment Help and Statistics Homework Help or Do my Statistics Assignment. So, Our experts are available to provide you  within a given deadline and definitely you will score good in your academics.
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bountyofbeads · 5 years ago
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Coronavirus Live Updates: China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected https://nyti.ms/2P8fTVJ
CORONAVIRUS LIVE UPDATES: China Says 1,700 Medical Workers Have Been Infected .... Six of the workers have died, the government said on Friday. It was the first time that officials had disclosed the number.
RIGHT NOW: China reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the past 24 hours.
READ UPDATES IN CHINESE: 新冠病毒疫情最新消息汇总
HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
Release of information on infected medical workers underscores risks.
For more than a month, medical workers in Hubei, the province at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, have been working nearly nonstop even as they struggled with a shortage of personal protective equipment such as masks, gowns and safety goggles.
For the first time on Friday, China disclosed figures that drove home the risks faced by those on the front line: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. Of those people, 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan, the provincial capital and the center of the outbreak.
The announcement was the first official confirmation about the number of infected medical workers, and is likely to ratchet up fears about the spread of the virus.
“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Health care workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”
[A MEDICAL WORKER DIES: The death of the doctor whose warnings about the coronavirus were silenced has become a potent symbol of Beijing’s failures. SEE TIMELINE]
Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said the numbers of infected workers represented 3.8 percent of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11.
He added that further research was needed to ascertain whether the infections spread throughout the hospital or within the community.
Medical workers, struggling to both treat patients and keep themselves safe, have resorted to begging from friends, putting out frequent calls for donations, and using tape to patch up torn masks and gowns.
Many doctors and nurses there say they eat just one meal a day because going to the restroom means removing and discarding safety gowns that they would not be able to replace.
During the SARS outbreak of 2002-3, 961 medical workers were infected, representing 18 percent of all infections, according to government data. About 1 percent of the medical workers infected with SARS died, a medical expert, Xu Dezhong, told Xinhua, China’s official news agency.
BLOOD PLASMA FROM SURVIVORS COULD HELP CREATE A TREATMENT.
A senior health official in Wuhan, China, the center of the outbreak, has called on residents who have recovered from the coronavirus to donate blood plasma, believing their naturally produced antibodies could be used to treat patients who are still sick.
Dr. Zhang Dingyu, the director of the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, made his appeal on Thursday after Chinese researchers said they believed that such antibody treatments could help people recover from the virus.
The search for a drug capable of treating or curing the virus has frustrated researchers, as rates of infection and deaths continue to mount.
The government is currently prescribing a combination of antiviral drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. But on Thursday, China National Biotec Group, a state-owned company under the Ministry of Health, said it had found that administering a round of human antibodies from the survivors to more than 10 critically ill patients caused inflammation levels to drop significantly after 12 to 24 hours of treatment.
The company called the use of plasma “the most effective method, which can significantly reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.”
Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, said the use of antibodies to treat the coronavirus was “a really good idea,” noting that it had been used before in influenza pandemics. But he cautioned that it needed to be proven in a controlled trial.
“It’s basically transferring immunity from a patient who has recovered to a patient still fighting the infection, and then helping them to recover,” he said.
CHINA RECORDS MORE THAN 5,000 NEW cases in 24 HOURS.
Numbers continued to climb after the government changed the criteria by which it tracks confirmed cases. China on Friday reported 5,090 new coronavirus cases and 121 new deaths in the previous 24 hours.
The authorities said a total of 63,851 people had been infected by the coronavirus and at least 1,380 had been killed by the disease. Most of the cases occurred in Hubei Province, the center of the outbreak, which recorded 4,823 new cases and 116 deaths over the same period.
The tally in Hubei jumped most drastically on Thursday after the authorities changed the diagnostic criteria for counting new cases. The government now takes into account cases diagnosed in clinical settings, including the use of CT scans, and not just those confirmed with specialized testing kits.
[ MEASURING AN OUTBREAK: Here’s an explanation for why the case numbers suddenly changed. SEE BELOW ]
A CORONAVIRUS CLINIC IN HONG KONG IS ATTACKED.
A Hong Kong clinic designated to treat suspected coronavirus cases suffered a second arson attack early Friday, officials said.
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority said it “seriously condemned” the attack, against an outpatient clinic in the New Territories district of Tsuen Wan. A police spokeswoman said it had occurred overnight and left a door charred. The first attack, on Saturday afternoon, damaged an air-conditioner. No one was wounded in either attack.
The clinic is about four miles from an apartment building where dozens of residents were evacuated this week after two residents on different floors were found to be infected, raising fresh fears about how the virus spreads. (Officials said an unsealed pipe might be to blame.)
There were 56 confirmed cases in the city as of Friday. Fearing a wider outbreak, residents have been staging small-scale protests at several clinics assigned to treat people with mild symptoms of the virus. Late last month, the government shelved a plan to turn an unoccupied housing project into a quarantine facility after protesters set a fire in the lobby.
As public anger and anxiety mount, the Beijing-backed government has been accused by many residents of not doing enough to contain the spread of the virus, including the refusal to quickly order a complete shutdown of the border with mainland China. The authorities have gradually restricted arrivals from mainland China over the past few weeks.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said on Friday that her administration would do its best to repatriate more than 2,000 of the city’s residents stranded in Hubei province and aboard the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship quarantined off Japan’s coast.
The Hong Kong government has received more than 1,000 requests for help from over 300 cities across Hubei, including from Wuhan, Mrs. Lam said. Ten people from Hong Kong in the region were confirmed to have been infected.
Some 330 Hong Kong residents remain stuck on the cruise ship in Japan, and 11 of them were infected, officials said. The Hong Kong authorities are pressing their Japanese counterparts to consider allowing its citizens to be quarantined onshore and to get tested for the virus as soon as possible, said John Lee, the city’s security minister, on Friday.
As the mind assesses risk, the coronavirus ‘hits all the hot buttons.’
The coronavirus has killed more than 1,300 and infected tens of thousands in China. Those are alarming statistics, but a much more common illness, influenza, kills about 400,000 every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu season and 61,099 the year before.
There remains deep uncertainty about the new coronavirus’s mortality rate, with the high-end estimate that it is up to 20 times that of the flu, but some estimates go as low as 0.16 percent for those affected outside of China’s overwhelmed Hubei Province. That’s about on par with the flu.
While the metrics of public health might put the flu alongside or even ahead of the new coronavirus for sheer deadliness, the mind has its own ways of measuring danger.
Experts used to believe that people gauged risk like actuaries, parsing out cost-benefit analyses every time a merging car came too close or local crime rates spiked. But a wave of psychological experiments in the 1980s upended this thinking.
Researchers instead found that people use a set of mental shortcuts for measuring danger. And they tend to do it unconsciously, meaning that instinct can play a large role.
The coronavirus, which has created a wave of fear, may be a case in point.
“This hits all the hot buttons that lead to heightened risk perception,” said Paul Slovic, a University of Oregon psychologist who helped pioneer modern risk psychology.
[ HOW THE MIND JUDGES DANGER: The flu might kill more people, but that’s not how we assess risk. SEE BELOW]
CITING FRUSTRATION, QUARANTINED RUSSIANS ESCAPE HOSPITALS.
At least five people fled coronavirus quarantine across Russia, local news media reported on Friday, citing frustration, erratic and inconsistent government policies, and bad conditions in the hospitals where they were held.
Alla Ilyina, 32, a woman from St. Petersburg, had enough patience to stay for only one day at a hospital in Russia’s second-largest city. She detailed how she had broken a lock in her room and sneaked away while doctors were distracted by another patient.
“I am a reasonable person, if someone told me that there was a suspicion, if doctors didn’t tell me that I was healthy, if I had not done three tests in separate hospitals, I would sit there,” Ms. Ilyina told reporters in an interview, broadcast on Russian television. “I don’t want to infect my relatives or threaten anybody, but I just don’t understand why an absolutely healthy person should be held somewhere.”
Three more people escaped quarantine in the same hospital, Fontanka.ru  reported on Friday.
In the city of Samara, Guzel Neder, 34, escaped through the window of another hospital. After staying in quarantine for four days, Mrs. Neder called a testing center and a specialist said if she hadn’t received a positive result within two hours, “then you should be fine.”
“My son already felt well, he didn’t have any fever symptoms, but doctors deliberately made us stay for longer, so that we wouldn’t leave, to ‘fulfill the order’ of isolating people, coming from China,” she said. She described conditions at the hospital, where doctors didn’t wear any protective gear.
Only two confirmed cases of coronavirus have been reported in Russia so far. Hundreds of Russian and Chinese nationals have been quarantined across the country for the 14-day period, following recommendations from the World Health Organization.
Valentine’s Day in the time of coronavirus leaves much to be desired.
During the coronavirus outbreak, cinemas and restaurants across China have shut their doors, parks and streets are empty, and public events have been postponed.
For couples, that meant there were few places to celebrate Valentine’s Day on Friday. But some came up with creative ways to declare their love.
In a nod to the scarcity of fresh vegetables, people ordered nicely wrapped bouquets of broccoli, cauliflowers and snacks, according to data from the delivery service Meituan. Others sent face masks, goggles and wipes, the data showed.
Online meal orders also reflected the crisis at hand. Last Valentine’s Day, the most popular orders were steak sets for two, hot pot and Cantonese food. This year, the top choices included simpler options — pizza and basic Chinese meals.
Hotels, of course, have seen bookings plummet. Zhang Lu, vice president of Myriad, a chain of 40 “love hotels” across the country, said most of them were closed on government orders. Some were being used as quarantine sites.
“I really hope this is going to end soon,” Ms. Zhang said.
Many people were stranded far from their significant others because of travel restrictions. On the social platform Weibo, people shared makeup tips for online video chats and recipes for homemade meals, under the trending topic “it’s a long-distance relationship for everyone this year.”
For florists who count on Valentine’s Day business, the situation was brutal. In Dounan Flower Market in the southwestern province of Yunnan, sellers had to dump millions of roses, according to a report by Jiemian, a Chinese news site. The price of roses had collapsed while the cost of delivery soared.
“Right now many people are worried about whether they can buy enough food,” one seller said. “They are not in the mood for flowers.”
SINGAPORE PRIME MINISTER SAYS THE CORONAVIRUS COULD LEAD TO A RECESSION.
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore, said on Friday that it was possible the city-state could fall into recession as the coronavirus spreads.
“I think the impact will be significant at least in the next couple of quarters,” said Mr. Lee, in a video posted on his Facebook page.
At Singapore Changi Airport, the number of flights has fallen by a third and travelers who have recently visited mainland China are not allowed to disembark.
“It’s a very intense outbreak,” said Mr. Lee, who visited the airport to show his support for the workers there. “It is already much more than SARS, and economies of the region are much more interlinked together.”
Singapore, whose economy is particularly sensitive to global fluctuations, has already seen a slowdown in growth. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 0.7 percent in 2019, compared to 3.1 percent the year before, according to government statistics.
“China particularly is a much bigger factor in the region and therefore I can’t say whether we’ll have a recession or not,” Mr. Lee added. “It’s possible, but definitely our economy will take a hit.”
THE U.S. SAYS IT WILL APPROVE AID TO NORTH KOREA TO FIGHT THE CORONAVIRUS THERE.
The United States said on Friday that it would approve humanitarian assistance to North Korea to help international aid agencies fight the coronavirus there, amid fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak.
North Korea has not reported any cases of the new coronavirus. But in the past week, some South Korean news reports, citing unnamed sources within the secretive North, said there had been deaths in the country that were suspected to be related to the virus. The reports could not be confirmed.
North Korea shares a 930-mile border with China, where the coronavirus emerged, and has taken aggressive steps to prevent its spread, including suspending all flights and trains to and from China.
North Korea’s public health system remains dysfunctional, and the travel restrictions have made it more difficult for the North to buy or smuggle medicine, goods and other supplies from China. Relief organizations have complained that American-led U.N. sanctions have blocked them from quickly approving aid.
This week, the Red Cross called for a sanctions exemption allowing it to transfer money to its office in North Korea, describing it as “a lifesaving intervention.” It cited an urgent need for personal protective gear and testing kits to prepare for an outbreak in North Korea.
The United States has similarly expressed alarm, saying it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement on Thursday.
She added that Washington encourages American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
[ THE RESPONSE IN Pyongyang: North Korea has sealed its border with China, but there are fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak. SEE BELOW]
Wuhan doctor issues a rare public rebuke of the government’s handling of the crisis.
The Chinese government failed to sound a public warning in the early days of the outbreak even though scientists were aware of human-to-human transmission, a doctor from Wuhan wrote in a paper published by the Lancet this week.
Dr. Zhang Hong of Zhongnan Hospital wrote that the local authorities allowed more than 5 million people to leave Wuhan to travel for the Lunar New Year holiday despite warnings from Chinese scientists.
“Early detection and early reporting were delayed,” Dr. Zhang wrote.
The paper was a rare instance of a medical professional criticizing the government, especially at a time when doctors and nurses have come under pressure not to speak out. Dr. Zhang also wrote that doctors did not understand the severity and contagiousness of the new coronavirus early on, and that medical workers failed to fully protect themselves as a result.
He wrote that the supplies of protective equipment in hospitals are severely insufficient, and were worsened by the implementation of traffic controls after the government sealed off cities across China. He called on the government to “pay attention to the front-line doctors and provide adequate protective equipment to reduce their risk of infection.”
Overstretched hospitals were forced to turn patients away as the virus spread, “inevitably increasing morbidity and mortality,” he added.
The authorities in Wuhan have admitted that public announcements about the virus were delayed. In late January, when the outbreak was spreading throughout Wuhan, the city’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, acknowledged that the disclosures had not been timely, but said his hands were tied because he could only publicize it “in accordance with the law.”
_______
Reporting and research was contributed by Sui-Lee Wee, Choe Sang-Hun, Richard C. Paddock, Elaine Yu, Motoko Rich, Lin Qiqing, Karen Zraick, Amie Tsang, Amber Wang, Zoe Mou, Albee Zhang, Yiwei Wang, and Claire Fu.
*********
How the Coronavirus Numbers Changed So Sharply
A new way of counting used by the Chinese authorities should catch more cases and get people into treatment earlier. But the scale of the epidemic will remain unclear for some time.
By Richard PÉREZ-PEÑA | Published Feb. 13, 2020 Updated Feb. 14, 2020, 9:46 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
The number of cases and deaths in the coronavirus epidemic in China jumped sharply on Thursday as the authorities there changed how they keep track of the disease, and not, primarily, because of any change in the shape of the outbreak.
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the true numbers — as with any new disease — and that will continue for the foreseeable future. Underscoring that point, hours after China revised its figures, the World Health Organization put out a lower set, saying that for now, it would not change the way it counts.
But experts say there were good reasons for changing the way patients with the disease, newly named Covid-19, were counted, and the new approach should catch many cases that had been missed before. That will allow more patients to get treatment and be quarantined faster.
Here is a look at what we know — and what we don’t — about the new coronavirus numbers and what they say about the scope of the crisis.
HOW DID THE NUMBERS CHANGE?
For several days, the Chinese government had reported figures that suggested the spread of the disease was slowing, but that changed abruptly on Thursday.
Officials in Hubei, the Chinese province that is the epicenter of the outbreak, said there had been more than 48,000 cases there, a 44 percent jump from the day before. They also reported 1,310 deaths, a 23 percent increase. The trend continued on Friday, though not as markedly, when Hubei officials disclosed another 4,800 cases and 116 more deaths.
Previously, cases were counted only if patients tested positive for the new virus. Now, the figures appear to include anyone who has a CT scan of the lungs showing a telltale pattern of pneumonia.
In the short run, the new accounting may deepen confusion about the true size of the epidemic. It also complicates efforts to track the growth of the disease over the last several weeks.
“We need to be careful in interpreting these numbers,” Dr. Michael Ryan, the World Health Organization’s emergency responses chief, said on Thursday. The larger number of cases, he said, “does not represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak.”
The W.H.O. then released its own figures, leaving out the diagnoses made without a positive test for the virus — and indicating that it did not fully understand the change China had made.
“For consistency, we report here only the number of laboratory-confirmed cases,” the organization said in a situation report. “W.H.O. has formally requested additional information on the clinically diagnosed cases, in particular when these have occurred in the course of the outbreak and whether suspect cases were reclassified as clinically diagnosed cases.”
The W.H.O. reported almost 47,000 confirmed cases worldwide, fewer than 1 percent outside mainland China. The Chinese figures put the total at more than 61,000 cases.
Release of information on infected medical workers underscores risks.
For more than a month, medical workers in Hubei, the province at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, have been working nearly nonstop even as they struggled with a shortage of personal protective equipment such as masks, gowns and safety goggles.
For the first time on Friday, China disclosed figures that drove home the risks faced by those on the front line: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. Of those people, 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan, the provincial capital and the center of the outbreak.
The announcement was the first official confirmation about the number of infected medical workers, and is likely to ratchet up fears about the spread of the virus.
“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Health care workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”
[A MEDICAL WORKER Dies: The death of the doctor whose warnings about the coronavirus were silenced has become a potent symbol of Beijing’s failures. SEE TIMELINE]
Zeng Yixin, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said the numbers of infected workers represented 3.8 percent of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11.
He added that further research was needed to ascertain whether the infections spread throughout the hospital or within the community.
Medical workers, struggling to both treat patients and keep themselves safe, have resorted to begging from friends, putting out frequent calls for donations, and using tape to patch up torn masks and gowns.
Many doctors and nurses there say they eat just one meal a day because going to the restroom means removing and discarding safety gowns that they would not be able to replace.
During the SARS outbreak of 2002-3, 961 medical workers were infected, representing 18 percent of all infections, according to government data. About 1 percent of the medical workers infected with SARS died, a medical expert, Xu Dezhong, told Xinhua, China’s official news agency.
WHAT WAS WRONG WITH THE OLD WAY OF COUNTING?
In a word, plenty.
Kits to test for the virus are not being produced quickly enough to keep up with demand, and they take days to produce results. Using CT scans means more patients can be checked, with the results available almost immediately.
And the tests for the virus have not been very reliable. Many sick people have tested negative, only to test positive later. That appears to be, at least in part, because standard testing involves swabbing nasal passages and the throat, while the virus may be lodged in the lungs.
In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shipped hundreds of testing kits to state laboratories — and days later revealed that some of them were faulty. It is not clear whether China has experienced similar problems in making the tests.
No.
There are several ways cases might still be missed. Some people get sick, and die or recover, without ever seeing a doctor. CT scans allow doctors to identify people whose infections have caused pneumonia, which can be fatal, but the scans will not catch people with milder symptoms.
There is another source of confusion about the numbers. It was reported this week that China is no longer counting as confirmed cases people who test positive for the virus yet show no symptoms. But some experts said they were not sure what had actually changed.
The Chinese health authorities say they can distinguish, on a CT scan, pneumonia brought on by the coronavirus from some other serious lung diseases. But it is not clear that they can tell it from pneumonia caused by other diseases, like seasonal influenza; the accuracy may vary with the skill of the doctor reading the scan.
WILL WE EVENTUALLY GET MORE ACCURATE FIGURES?
Quite possibly.
Right now, labs are testing for the virus itself, and viruses can be hard to detect. What is often easier to identify is the immune system's own response.
When a patient contracts an infection, the body produces antibodies to it — proteins in the blood that recognize a particular pathogen and trigger an immune system attack on it. Labs around the world are working to develop a test for antibodies to the new coronavirus, but none is available yet.
It could be tricky.
There are several strains of coronavirus in humans, including ones that cause common colds, SARS and MERS. Antibodies to the new virus may be hard to distinguish from the antibodies people already have to other coronaviruses.
In any case, it can take days or weeks before a patient tests positive for antibodies to a new infection, so the test may not be useful in diagnosing current illnesses.
So while an effective antibody test may produce a fairly comprehensive picture of an outbreak, that picture will lag a bit behind the reality.
*********
U.S. SUPPORTS AID TO NORTH KOREA FOR FIGHTING THE CORONAVIRUS The North has reported no cases of the virus, but relief groups say it is woefully unprepared to deal with an outbreak.
By Choe Sang-Hun | Published Feb. 14, 2020, 2:43 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
SEOUL, South Korea — The United States said it would approve humanitarian assistance to North Korea to help international aid agencies fight the coronavirus there, amid fears that the impoverished country may be hiding an outbreak.
North Korea has not reported any cases of the new coronavirus. But in the past week, some South Korean news reports, citing unnamed sources within the secretive North, said there had been deaths that were suspected to be related to the virus. The reports could not be confirmed.
North Korea shares a 930-mile border with China, where the coronavirus emerged. It has since spread to numerous countries; more than 1,300 deaths have been reported, almost all of them in China.
North Korea has taken aggressive steps to keep the virus out, including suspending all flights and trains to and from China. But the border has long been porous for smugglers, who ferry goods across the shallow river frontier that separates the two countries.
North Korea’s public health system is dysfunctional, and the travel restrictions have made it harder for the North to buy or smuggle medicine, goods or other supplies from China. Relief organizations have complained that American-led international sanctions against the North, imposed because of its nuclear weapons program, have prevented them from providing aid quickly.
This week, the Red Cross called for a sanctions exemption that would let it transfer money to its office in North Korea, describing it as “a lifesaving intervention.” It cited an urgent need for personal protective gear and testing kits to prepare for a possible outbreak in the North.
The United States has also expressed alarm, and it said on Thursday that it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement. She added that Washington encouraged American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
“The United States is ready and prepared to expeditiously facilitate the approval of assistance from these organizations,” she said.
So far, North Korea has said nothing about how many people it may have quarantined or tested for the virus. But it is clearly taking the threat seriously, having suspended international tourism and, more recently, extended the quarantine period for people with coronavirus symptoms, from 14 days to 30 days.
Its state media has carried photos of mask-wearing officials holding emergency meetings at disease-control centers and disinfecting ports and train stations. The North also asked South Korean officials to vacate a joint liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong as a precaution against the virus.
​Earlier this month, state media said health officials had stepped up inspections on “all routes leading to the capital city,” Pyongyang, which is home to North Korea’s elite, including the top leader, Kim Jong-un. It said the authorities were requiring all people passing through Pyongyang’s main train station to wear masks.
The United States has also expressed alarm, and it said on Thursday that it would not stand in the way of such aid.
“The United States is deeply concerned about the vulnerability of the North Korean people to a coronavirus outbreak,” Morgan Ortagus, a State Department spokeswoman, said in a statement. She added that Washington encouraged American and international aid groups to “counter and contain the spread of coronavirus” in the North.
“The United States is ready and prepared to expeditiously facilitate the approval of assistance from these organizations,” she said.
So far, North Korea has said nothing about how many people it may have quarantined or tested for the virus. But it is clearly taking the threat seriously, having suspended international tourism and, more recently, extended the quarantine period for people with coronavirus symptoms, from 14 days to 30 days.
Its state media has carried photos of mask-wearing officials holding emergency meetings at disease-control centers and disinfecting ports and train stations. The North also asked South Korean officials to vacate a joint liaison office in the North Korean city of Kaesong as a precaution against the virus.
​Earlier this month, state media said health officials had stepped up inspections on “all routes leading to the capital city,” Pyongyang, which is home to North Korea’s elite, including the top leader, Kim Jong-un. It said the authorities were requiring all people passing through Pyongyang’s main train station to wear masks.
Amid the many signs that North Korea fears an outbreak, its state media has reported no public appearances by Mr. Kim since he watched a concert​ in Pyongyang a few weeks ago.
Liberty Post Korea, a Seoul-based website run by a North Korean defector, reported last week that 4,000 North Koreans had been ​placed under special monitoring for​ symptoms in one northern province ​bordering China, and that 720 had been quarantined in hospitals. The report quoted an unidentified source in the North and could not be independently verified.
Daily NK, another ​Seoul-based website that relies on anonymous sources inside the North, reported last week that five people had died in hospitals in another northern province after suffering from fevers, and that people there had speculated that they died from the coronavirus.
As North Korea shut its ports and borders to foreign goods and summoned back​ officials who had been earning hard currency​ in China​, quarantining them on the border, both commodity prices and exchange rates have ​begun rising in some northern towns, Daily NK said. North Korea’s military​ has also been smuggling in​ large ​quantities of South Korean face masks​ through China, it ​said.
Kim Seung-eun, a ​Christian ​pastor​ and human rights activist​ in South Korea who ​works with informants inside the North, said on Friday that he had not heard of any deaths from the coronavirus in the country.
He said the North Korean authorities had drastically stepped up border controls, even ordering guards to fire at those attempting to cross the border illegally. That draconian measure has made it impossible for groups like his to smuggle refugees out of North Korea, he said.
“North Korea has to take such an extreme step because their medical infrastructure is so bad that if an epidemic breaks out, it could run out of control,” Mr. Kim said.
The coronavirus emerged as North Korea seemed to be retreating from a period of relative openness, with the diplomacy between Kim Jong-un and President Trump having produced no concrete agreements on ending the North’s nuclear arms program or the international sanctions. In recent months, North Korea has opened resort towns ​in hopes of attracting Chinese visitors ​and badly needed tourist cash. But the coronavirus has halted that effort.
​Mr. Kim, the pastor, said the prolonged border shutdown had already caused hardship for North Koreans who rely on trading and smuggling for a living. With goods smuggled from China getting more expensive, traders have begun hoarding commodities in the expectation of further price increases, he said.
Mr. Kim reported no civil disturbances but said the disruptions in border trade could hurt the national economy. More than 90 percent of North Korea’s official external trade goes through China.
“North Korea is under increasing stress because of the coronavirus outbreak in China,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor in the international studies division at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “The revenue stream Kim was anticipating from tourism is running dry and the informal economy is suffering from draconian border and travel restrictions.”
“North Korea may be on lockdown now, but it will soon be in need of economic concessions,” he added.
That raises the possibility that Pyongyang could return to diplomacy — or resume weapons tests to strengthen its negotiating hand, analysts said. ​
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Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk
Psychologists say that differing responses to coronavirus and the flu illustrate our shortcomings when it comes to evaluating danger.
By Max Fisher | Published Feb. 13, 2020Updated Feb. 14, 2020, 6:31 a.m. ET | New York Times | Posted February 14, 2020 |
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Shortly after the University of Washington announced that the school’s fourth suspected case of the new coronavirus had turned out negative, two professors, one of public policy and the other of public health, held a small dinner for students and faculty members.
Like everywhere else on campus, and in much of the world, the coronavirus was all anybody could talk about.
But one of the attendees, a public health student, had had enough. Exasperated, she rattled off a set of statistics.
The virus had killed about 1,100 worldwide and infected around a dozen in the United States. Alarming, but a much more common illness, influenza, kills about 400,000 people every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu season and 61,099 the year before.
There remains deep uncertainty about the new coronavirus' mortality rate, with the high-end estimate that it is up to 20 times that of the flu, but some estimates go as low as 0.16 percent for those affected outside of China’s overwhelmed Hubei province. About on par with the flu.
Wasn’t there something strange, the student asked, about the extreme disparity in public reactions?
Ann Bostrom, the dinner’s public policy co-host, laughed when she recounted the evening. The student was right about the viruses, but not about people, said Dr. Bostrom, who is an expert on the psychology of how humans evaluate risk.
While the metrics of public health might put the flu alongside or even ahead of the new coronavirus for sheer deadliness, she said, the mind has its own ways of measuring danger. And the new coronavirus disease, named COVID-19 hits nearly every cognitive trigger we have.
That explains the GLOBAL WAVE of ANXIETY.
Of course, it is far from irrational to feel some fear about the coronavirus outbreak tearing through China and beyond.
But there is a lesson, psychologists and public health experts say, in the near-terror that the virus induces, even as serious threats like the flu receive little more than a shrug. It illustrates the unconscious biases in how human beings think about risk, as well as the impulses that often guide our responses — sometimes with serious consequences.
How Our Brains Evaluate Threat
Experts used to believe that people gauged risk like actuaries, parsing out cost-benefit analyses every time a merging car came too close or local crime rates spiked. But a wave of psychological experiments in the 1980s upended this thinking.
Researchers found that people use a set of mental shortcuts for measuring danger. And they tend to do it unconsciously, meaning that instinct can play a much larger role than they realize.
The world is full of risks, big and small. Ideally, these shortcuts help people figure out which ones to worry about and which to disregard. But they can be imperfect.
The coronavirus may be a case in point.
“This hits all the hot buttons that lead to heightened risk perception,” said Paul Slovic, a University of Oregon psychologist who helped pioneer modern risk psychology.
When you encounter a potential risk, your brain does a quick search for past experiences with it. If it can easily pull up multiple alarming memories, then your brain concludes the danger is high. But it often fails to assess whether those memories are truly representative.
A classic example is airplane crashes.
If two happen in quick succession, flying suddenly feels scarier — even if your conscious mind knows that those crashes are a statistical aberration with little bearing on the safety of your next flight. But if you then take a few flights and nothing goes wrong, your brain will most likely start telling you again that flying is safe.
When it comes to the coronavirus, Dr. Slovic said, it’s as if people are experiencing one report after another of planes crashing.
“We’re hearing about the fatalities,” he said. “We’re not hearing about the 98 or so percent of people who are recovering from it and may have had mild cases.”
That tendency can cut in both directions, leading not to undue alarm but undue complacency. Though flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year, most peoples’ experiences with it are relatively mundane.
Being told how dangerous flu is does little to change this, studies find. The brain’s risk assessment approach simply overwhelms rational calculation — a source of endless consternation to health officials trying to raise flu vaccination rates.
“We’re conditioned by our experiences,” Dr. Slovic said. “But experience can mislead us to be too comfortable with things.”
Biases, Shortcuts and Gut Instincts
The coronavirus also taps into other psychological shortcuts for assessing risk.
One involves novelty: We are conditioned to focus heavily on new threats, looking for any cause for alarm. This can lead us to obsess over the scariest reports and worst-case scenarios, making the danger seem bigger still.
Maybe the MOST POWERFUL SHORTCUT of all is EMOTION.
Assessing the danger posed by the coronavirus is extraordinarily difficult; even scientists are unsure. But our brains act as if they have an easier way: They translate gut emotional reactions into what we believe are reasoned conclusions, even if hard data tells us otherwise.
“The world in our heads is not a precise replica of reality,” Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, wrote in a 2011 book. “Our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed.”
In extreme cases, this can lead to a “crowding-out effect,” Dr. Bostrom said, as our emotional impulses overwhelm our cognitive faculties. The coronavirus hits a number of those triggers, often quite hard.
ONE IS DREAD.
If a risk seems especially painful or disturbing, people tend to raise their estimate of how likely it is to happen to them. Reports on the coronavirus often feature upsetting imagery: unhygienic food markets, city-scale lockdowns and overcrowded hospitals.
Another trigger is a threat that is not fully understood. The less known it is, the more people may fear it, and overestimate its threat.
Threats that feel out of control, like a runaway disease outbreak, prompt a similar response, leading people to seek ways to reimpose control, for instance by hoarding supplies.
Risks that we take on voluntarily, or that at least feel voluntary, are often seen as less dangerous than they really are. One study found that people will raise their threshold for the amount of danger they are willing to take on by a factor of one thousand if they see the risk as voluntary.
If that number sounds high, consider that driving, a danger most take on voluntarily, kills over 40,000 Americans every year. But terrorism, a threat imposed on us, kills fewer than 100.
There are countless rational reasons that terrorism provokes a sharper response than traffic deaths. The same goes for a fast-spreading and little-understood outbreak versus the familiar flu.
And that is exactly the point, psychologists say.
“All of these things play on our feelings,” Dr. Slovic said. “And that’s the representation of threat for us. Not the statistics of risk, but the feelings of risk.”
Making Choices
All those emotions can have real consequences.
Consider the response to the partial meltdown of the nuclear plant at Three Mile Island, in Pennsylvania, in 1979. Though the incident caused no deaths, it led to public demand to turn from nuclear power to fossil fuels whose impact on air quality, alone, is thought to cause thousands of premature deaths every year.
That calculus confounded old-school economists, who saw it as irrational. One leading nuclear power expert called it “insane.”
But it also helped give rise to new psychological models for how people measure risk.
“Our feelings don’t do arithmetic very well,” Dr. Slovic said.
That can be especially true when judging low-probability, high-risk threats like nuclear war, terrorism — or dying from the coronavirus or the flu.
Our minds tend to either “round down” the probability to “basically zero” and we underreact, Dr. Slovic said. Or we focus on the worst-case outcome, he said, which “gives us a strong feeling, so we overreact.”
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homedevises · 6 years ago
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Ten Taboos About Garden Of Eden Rivers Map You Should Never Share On Twitter | garden of eden rivers map
From the Lamont-Doherty Apple Observatory
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Wallace Broecker, a geochemist who accomplished key analysis into the history of earth’s altitude and humans’ access aloft it, died Feb. 18 in New York. He was 87. The annual was congestive affection failure, said his family. His afterlife was accepted by Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Apple Observatory, area he spent a career that spanned about 67 years.
One of the aboriginal scientists to adumbrate an approaching acceleration in earth’s temperature due to animal achievement of carbon dioxide, Broecker was accustomed with introducing the byword “global warming” into accurate dictionary in the 1970s. Abundant of his assignment focused on the oceans. Among added things, his studies of abyssal allure helped lay out the map of all-around ocean circulation, and its able furnishings on climate. His studies additionally helped lay the base for abounding added scientists’ assignment in a array of fields. Not agreeable to aloof do research, he fabricated accompany with and connected his access to able abstracts in government and business.
Broecker—universally accepted as Wally—at aboriginal fabricated an absurd scientist. Born Nov. 29, 1931, the additional of bristles children, he grew up in the Chicago suburb of Oak Park, Illinois. His father, additionally alleged Wallace, ran a gas station. His mother was the above Edith Smith. Both parents were evangelical Christians who alone avant-garde geologic approach for the accurate Biblical estimation that the apple is aloof a few thousand years old. They additionally forbade drinking, dancing and movies. Broecker abounding Illinois’ fundamentalist Christian Wheaton College, afresh the contempo alma academy of preacher Billy Graham. While still a student, he affiliated the above Grace Carder, and batten of acceptable an allowance actuary.
Broecker got aberrate afterwards an beforehand Wheaton apprentice helped him align a summer 1952 lab internship at what was afresh alleged Lamont Geological Observatory, in Palisades, N.Y. The apprentice was Paul Gast, who after went on to arch NASA’s moon-rock program. At Lamont, Broecker formed with J. Laurence Kulp, a geochemist accomplishing beat assignment on radiocarbon dating, a afresh advocate new adjustment that accustomed advisers to acquaint the ages of abstracts as far aback as 40,000 years.
By his own account, Broecker had fun tinkering with the lab equipment, and he was aflame by the anew wide-open adventitious to accomplish discoveries about attributes application carbon dating. He transferred to Columbia that abatement and kept alive with Kulp. The move appropriate he had alone at atomic some of his family’s religious beliefs; however, some added acceptance fabricated fun of his background, calling him a “theo-chemist.” While added acceptance were beatific on ocean analysis cruises, he was larboard off the account for his aboriginal eight years. Nevertheless, he becoming a PhD. in cartography in 1958 and backward around, gradually ascent to the aboriginal rank of prominence. In a 2016 account he alleged Lamont “my Garden of Eden.”
“My abundant joy in activity comes in accession article out,” he told The New York Times in 1998. “I amount article out about every six months or so, and I address about it and animate analysis on it, and that’s the joy of my life.”
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One of Broecker’s aboriginal achievements was a alternation of affidavit abolition the banal abstraction that it took tens of bags of years for baptize to broadcast amid bank and abysmal regions of the world’s oceans. His analyses of carbon isotopes calm by Lamont ships from about the apple showed that baptize could accomplish the about-face in aloof centuries—a analysis showed that the oceans are far added activating than ahead thought. This in about-face adumbrated that the oceans could potentially affect the agreement of the atmosphere, or vice-versa.
Starting in 1960, Broecker sailed on abounding of the world’s oceans and seas. In accession to sampling water, he maintained instruments, helped winch seafloor debris cores to the surface, and threw bang abdicate to aftermath explosions whose echoes were apprehend to blueprint the bottom. In the 1970s, he co-led a all-around diplomacy adjourned by the U.S. government to use a avant-garde array of trace metals, nutrients and isotopes of radioactive elements to map the apportionment of the abysmal ocean, the barter of gases with the atmosphere, and added abyssal processes. This aggregate assignment provided the underpinnings for about all after studies of abyssal chemistry, and the oceans’ accord to climate. It was Broecker who provided a active annotation for a documentary blur on the activity while on a cruise from Tahiti to San Diego. He acclimated accompanying geochemical methods to abstraction basin waters, sediments and rocks in Canada and the American West for clues about climates of the past, with a appropriate absorption in the comings and goings of ice ages.
Early on, Broecker became absorbed in how the oceans blot carbon dioxide from the air, and what furnishings this ability accept on climate. The history and behavior of atmospheric carbon dioxide were ailing accepted aback he started out, but by the aboriginal 1970s, added advisers had analyzed ice cores from the Greenland ice and apparent that they could clue levels of atmospheric CO2 through the abroad past. Assignment by others appropriate that college CO2 levels could be activated with periods of warming. And scientists had speculated aback the 19th aeon that ascent achievement of human-produced CO2 could potentially balmy the planet; some of Broecker’s contemporaries, including Charles Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, were already tracking CO2 levels in absolute time and because the effects.
In August 1975, Broecker actinic his and others’ accompanying analysis in the account Science in a allotment called”Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced All-around Warming?” It was after said to be the aboriginal time the byword was acclimated in a accurate paper. In it, he argued that bodies were alteration the altitude by abounding CO2; it aloof wasn’t axiomatic yet, because the apple was experiencing what he believed was a accustomed 40-year cooling aeon that was appearance the effects. He predicted that the aeon would anon reverse, and afresh the counterfeit abating on top of that would become badly visible. It after affronted out that he had misinterpreted some of the ice-core data, but had the all-embracing account right. Appropriate on cue in 1976, temperatures started ascending, and accept connected aback afresh appealing abundant alternating the aisle Broecker laid out.
“Global warming” was bound adopted by the science world, including in the aboriginal all-embracing address on the subject, appear in 1979 by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Decades later, aback some accustomed Broecker with bogus the phrase, he shrugged it off as “dumb luck.” He warned that he would about-face over in his grave if addition put “global warming” on his tombstone. He already offered $200 to any apprentice who could acquisition an beforehand commendation for the phrase. (One postgrad did acquisition it in a 1958 beat in the Hammond Times of Indiana. It allegedly didn’t bolt on at that time.)
Broecker and a scattering of added scientists began conference government leaders on altitude change in the 1980s. He testified at the aboriginal aldermanic hearings ambidextrous with the subject, led in 1984 by afresh Tennessee Representative Al Gore. Over afterwards years, as the science advanced, Gore and added politicians afresh met with and consulted Broecker to accept him explain.
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In the mid-1980s Broecker actinic a admirable account of apple ocean circulation, based on his and others’ studies. He dubbed it “The Abundant Ocean Conveyor.” In simplest terms, it is a all-inclusive river of warm, bank baptize abounding from the south Pacific into the Indian Ocean, rounding Africa and afresh branch arctic through the Atlantic. Already it hits algid baptize from the Arctic, the baptize afresh cools and sinks abreast arctic Europe. From there, it loops through the abysm aback to the Pacific to warm, acceleration and activate the aeon again. The breeze is so huge, Broecker asserted, that it charge advice adapt all-around altitude by affective about all-inclusive amounts of calefaction from one abode to another. This abstraction anon became accepted consensus.
Broecker afresh put alternating the abstraction that the agent could aback about-face on and off, arch to desperate altitude shifts–not over millennia, as abounding had appear to think, but conceivably aloof decades. He acicular to an allegedly accelerated cooling some 12,000 years ago that threw Europe and added regions into a acting abysmal freeze. Paradoxically, he argued, the annual ability accept been a then-warming altitude and the collapse of arctic ice sheets, which alien a beating of freshwater that pushed aback on the conveyor. He warned that “the amoral experiment” of avant-garde human-induced abating ability accompany agnate accelerated changes. He was addicted of saying, “The altitude arrangement is an affronted beast, and we are dabbling it with sticks.”
Climatologists are still debating whether and how accelerated altitude swings ability booty abode today. That notwithstanding, Broecker’s account were taken up and berserk abstract in the 2004 cine The Day Afterwards Tomorrow, which featured a climate-change-powered tsunami engulfing Manhattan and afresh freezing into an ice sheet–all in the aforementioned day. They were added credibly explained in possibly the alone pop song about concrete oceanography, “Uncle Wally’s Tale,” by the accompanist Tom Chapin. (Chapin was Broecker’s brother-in-law, affiliated to Broecker’s adolescent sister, Bonnie.)
In the 1990s, Broecker served as arch accurate adviser for Biosphere 2, an beginning glassed-in ambiance in the Arizona arid meant to actor the apparatus of land, oceans and air on a baby scale. Columbia had aloof taken over accurate management, and the business ancillary was briefly handed over to a adviser alleged Steve Bannon—later arch adviser to U.S. admiral Donald Trump, and almighty adversary of U.S. efforts to action altitude change. “An acute guy. I absolutely kinda admired him,” Broecker told the New Republic in 2017. Afterwards the 2016 election, Broecker was abashed that maybe Bannon had abandoned or did not accept the science, and approved contacting him to set him straight. He never heard back.
Broecker authored or coauthored abutting to 500 analysis papers, and at atomic 17 books. Abounding of the books were self-published spiral-bound affairs, anesthetized out chargeless to anyone interested. Added bartering ones included the 2008 Fixing Altitude (with science announcer Rob Kunzig), an autobiographical attending at the development of avant-garde altitude science. He additionally collaborated with Harvard oceanographer Charles Langmuir on How to Body a Habitable Planet, a broadly acclimated argument on earth’s agent and change aboriginal appear in 1984 and broadcast in a 2012 edition. Broecker mentored about 50 Lamont alum students, abounding of whom went on to arresting careers.
There is no Nobel Prize in apple sciences, but Broecker accustomed ceremoniousness and millions of dollars in awards from foundations, governments and accurate societies. He accustomed honorary degrees from Harvard, Cambridge and added universities. He was adopted to London’s Royal Society and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. In 1996, he accustomed the National Medal of Science from U.S. Admiral Bill Clinton. He bashed best of banknote awards aback into research.
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In summer 2001, billionaire Gary Comer, architect of the Lands’ End accouterment company, managed to captain his ample yacht bright through Canada’s Northwest Passage —long blocked because of ice, but now aback accessible because of abating climate. Comer was absorbed by his own accomplishment and approved out Broecker to apprentice more. The two became fast friends. Broecker, afresh entering his 70s, accustomed the agent with “adopting” him and animating his career at a time aback he was because retirement. Application Comer’s yacht and clandestine aircraft, they agitated out assorted expeditions to the far arctic together. Under Broecker’s influence, Comer gave some $25 actor to armamentarium altitude advisers beyond the world, and to body a huge new geochemistry architecture at Lamont.
Broecker, who suffered from dyslexia, never got about to acquirements how to blazon or use a claimed computer. He wrote with a pencil and notepad, and had staffers retype manuscripts and emails. He was accepted for his affable demeanor, but additionally for his bluntness and agitable temper; he about skewered alum acceptance and chief scientists akin for awkward work. “He has singlehandedly pushed added compassionate than apparently anybody in our field,” said Richard Alley, a arch climatologist at Pennsylvania State University. “He is intellectually so huge in how the apple arrangement works and what its history is, that all of us are afterward Wally in one way or other.”
In contempo years, Broecker more batten out about the dangers of altitude change, but averred that abundant remained unknown. “It humbles you to abstraction the apple system, because you apprehend attributes is absolutely complicated,” he told CBC television. He advocated for the closing abandonment of deposit fuels, but saw little achievement it would appear soon. “I don’t anticipate we can allot the poor bodies on the planet to abide poor, aloof so we can not accept CO2 body up in the atmosphere,” he said. “Coal is activity to get austere and there is not annihilation we can do about it. [H]ow are you activity to stop bodies from application it?” As a stopgap, he advocated beginning technologies to blot CO2 from the air and abundance it aback underground.
Grace Carder, Broecker’s aboriginal wife, died in 2007; they had been affiliated for 55 years. They had six children, bristles of whom survive him: Sandra Broecker of Dumont, N.J.; Cynthia Kennedy of Harrington Park, N.J.; Kathleen Wilson of Oxford, Miss.; Scott Broecker of Pacific Grove, Calif.; and Cheryl Keyes of Morristown, N.J. A daughter, Suzanne Broecker, died earlier. In 2009, he affiliated Elizabeth Clark, who had agitated out assignment at his lab for abounding years, and who connected alive with him; she survives him. He is additionally survived by his sisters Judith Redekop of Tucson, Ariz., and Bonnie Chapin of Piermont, N.Y. as able-bodied as seven grandchildren and seven great-grandchildren.
Broecker’s final connected assignment was CO2: Earth’s Altitude Driver, an overview of the accountable from abysmal time up to the present, appear in abatement 2018. Afterwards that, his bloom began to fail, but colleagues said that he kept discussing the latest analysis and account for new projects with them until aloof canicule afore his death. During one of his aftermost affairs with friends, he said that he planned to be cremated, and asked a adolescent Lamont abyssal scientist, geochemist Sidney Hemming, to booty his ashes with her on her abutting analysis cruise. Scatter them in the ocean, he told her.
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myfinanceblog · 6 years ago
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New Post has been published on My Finance Blog
New Post has been published on http://princefinance.princefamily33.com/2019/02/07/get-life-insurance-before-its-too-late-3/
Get Life Insurance Before It's Too Late
TIP! You will want to assess your family’s needs and the lifestyle they are used to when calculating how much life insurance you will need to purchase. Everyone has individual life needs that will need to be addressed in the event of a family death.
Life insurance is often tricky. Searching for a top-notch and low cost life insurance policy is a hard task to accomplish, then on top of that you need to figure if the needs of your family will be met. This article contains some little nuggets of life insurance-oriented advice that will help you to purchase an insurance policy that provides you with all the coverage you need for a reasonable price.
TIP! Always make sure your coverage is enough to handle you and everyone involved. This also includes assuring that the coverage extends into other areas, such as debts and mortgages that you might leave behind.
When trying to determine how much life insurance to buy, consider your family’s lifestyle. Each family is different and the necessary coverage is not the same for everyone. Your policy should cover expenses related to the funeral, real estate taxes, mortgages and loans, as well as usual expenses your salary would cover.
TIP! You would be well advised to take out a life insurance policy by going through an experienced financial adviser. A broker often earns a standard commission through the act of selling insurance, which creates a reason to lie or manipulate for profit.
Do some comparison shopping prior to purchasing a life insurance policy. Often, the difference in life insurance premiums from provider to provider is drastic. This is why it’s so important to take advantage of resources online and search out the lowest quotes. Ensure that every quote you get is based on the knowledge of the existing medical conditions you have.
Insurance Companies
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TIP! It is to your advantage to make annual premium payments instead of monthly ones if possible. Paying your premium once per year can save you a little money.
It is a good idea to investigate the company which underwrites your policy for life insurance. They need to be reputable and large enough to handle any claims. Even if other companies offer cheap policies, you are taking the risk of not getting paid when you need to.
TIP! You should protect yourself by understanding the cancellation procedure for your life insurance before signing on the dotted line. For example, if you end up disliking the policy for any reason, you may decide to cancel it.
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TIP! Do you own research, but also don’t neglect getting in touch with a life insurance expert. They can help you calculate the amount of coverage you will need, and they can answer any questions you have and change your policy as needed.
Look around the Internet when you decide you want to shop around for some life insurance. A good idea is to look at a website that lists policy prices and ratings for multiple companies. Insure.com, Insweb and Accuquote are three good places to start.
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The tips that have been provided should help you to get the best coverage for your family as well as yourself. When you understand and follow the advice present, you are able to make better decisions that can allow you to better position yourself the way you want to for the future. Putting some efforts into selecting the best policy is necessary.
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natehake-blog · 7 years ago
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gullybababook · 7 years ago
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Are Gullybaba Books the Best Reference for IGNOU MA in Economics? I Do Not Have Much Time For Preparation
It is understandable that those who pursue MA in Economics courses may already be working or has other commitments. They have little time and wonder if Gullybaba books in IGNOU MA Economics are all they need to succeed in IGNOU MA exams. The short answer is yes.
Gullybaba Publications IGNOU M.A. Economics
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Gullybaba offers the complete range of IGNOU M.A. help books covering a variety of topics in the Economics courses in Hindi and English. You will find that they are complete in all respects. You can refer Econometrics Methods in Hindi, Financial Institutions and Markets in Hindi and English, Actuarial economics, Research Methods in Economics, Economics of Social Sector and Environment and International Trade and Finance books, to name only a few from the IGNOU books available online in order to succeed in M.A. economics exam. In addition you get IGNOU question papers solved, IGNOU books and IGNOU assignments from Gullybaba publications IGNOU M.A. Economics section.
IGNOU Assignments, Question Papers
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IGNOU books shopping online at Gullybaba gives you access to question papers and solved IGNOU assignments that prove very helpful for those who have very little time to study. Gullybaba IGNOU online book section contains books, guides, solved assignments and question papers specifically to help you prepare well in a short time and be assured of success. Just buy the set and study them well.
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