#Definition and Explanation of Drawdown

[stockexperttrading]

Drawdown in Forex Trading with FTG

The blog titled "Drawdown in Forex Trading – Understanding and Managing Losses" delves into the concept of drawdown in forex trading, which refers to the decline in a trading account's equity from its peak due to a series of losing trades. The guide emphasizes the importance of effectively managing drawdowns to preserve capital, maintain confidence, and avoid impulsive decisions during challenging market phases. The blog explains the different types of drawdowns, including equity drawdown and maximum drawdown, and provides a simple formula for calculating drawdown percentages. It discusses common causes of drawdowns in forex trading, such as market volatility, unsuitable strategies, overleveraging, poor risk management, and external factors. The psychological impact of drawdowns on traders is highlighted, emphasizing the emotional toll they can take, leading to self-doubt and anxiety. The long-term effects of drawdowns on trading performance are explored, including capital erosion and missed opportunities. Strategies for managing drawdowns are extensively covered, including risk management techniques such as proper position sizing and setting stop-loss orders. Diversification and asset allocation, utilizing trailing stops, revisiting and adjusting trading strategies, and the importance of analyzing historical data are also discussed. The blog emphasizes the psychological aspects of dealing with drawdowns, including maintaining discipline, overcoming fear and greed, and the importance of keeping a trading journal for self-reflection and growth. The conclusion underscores that drawdowns are a natural part of forex trading and can be opportunities for growth rather than failures. It encourages continuous learning, adaptation, and using the support and resources provided by Funded Traders Global to navigate the challenges and successes of forex trading.

[forex4xpip]

The Ultimate Guide: Setting Up and Mastering the MT5 Trailing Stop EA

An MT5 Trailing Stop EA, or Expert Advisor, is a software add-on for the MetaTrader 5 platform that automates the process of adjusting your stop-loss orders as the market price moves in your favor. Instead of manually changing your stop-loss levels, the EA dynamically tracks the price and updates your stop-loss accordingly, based on pre-defined parameters.

Key Features of an MT5 Trailing Stop EA:

Automatic Stop-Loss Adjustments:

Dynamically trails: Tracks market price and updates stop-loss based on pre-defined parameters.

Customizable distance: Set the distance the stop-loss trails behind the price (e.g., 20 pips).

Multiple algorithms: Choose from various trailing methods like fixed pips, ATR, percentage, or Bollinger Bands.

Profit Locking and Risk Management:

Secures profits: As the price moves in your favor, the trailing stop-loss locks in a portion of your potential gains.

Limits losses: Automatically tightens the stop-loss when the price moves against you, minimizing potential losses.

Reduced drawdown: Helps keep drawdowns (temporary losses) controlled by adjusting stop-loss levels proactively.

Flexibility and Optimization:

Multiple currency pairs: Works with most currency pairs and trading instruments.

Filter open orders: Apply the EA to specific trades based on symbol, magic number, or other criteria.

Advanced settings: Customize trailing distance for different pairs, set take-profit orders alongside stop-loss, or backtest performance.

Additional Features:

Visual indicators: Displays trailing levels and current stop-loss values on the chart.

Alerts and notifications: Receive signals when the stop-loss is adjusted or triggered.

Compatibility: Integrates seamlessly with the MT5 platform for user-friendly setup and operation.

How it works:

The functionality of a Trailing Stop EA (Expert Advisor) is designed to automate the process of adjusting the stop-loss level as the market price moves in a favorable direction. Here's a detailed explanation of how it works:

1. Setting a Trailing Distance:

Definition: The trader configures a specific trailing distance, which represents the distance in pips between the current market price and the stop-loss level. This distance is set based on the trader's risk tolerance and strategy.

Example: If a trader sets a trailing distance of 20 pips, it means that if the market price moves 20 pips in the trader's favor after entering a trade, the stop-loss will automatically adjust, trailing the market price by the same distance.

2. Monitoring the Market Price:

Constant Tracking: The Trailing Stop EA continuously monitors the live market price of the currency pair being traded. It retrieves real-time data from the market and calculates the distance between the entry price and the current market price.

Dynamic Calculation: As the market price fluctuates, the EA dynamically calculates the distance between the current market price and the original entry price of the trade.

3. Adjusting the Stop-Loss:

Automatic Adjustment: When the market moves in the trader's favor and the current market price increases the distance equal to the set trailing distance, the Trailing Stop EA automatically adjusts the stop-loss level.

Closer to Market Price: The adjustment involves moving the stop-loss level closer to the current market price. This automatic trailing mechanism ensures that, in case of a favorable price movement, the stop-loss is adjusted to lock in profits and protect against potential reversals.

Key Points to Note:

Dynamic Nature: The trailing stop is dynamic and follows the market price, allowing for potential profit maximization during strong trends while protecting accumulated gains.

Risk Reduction: Trailing stops are a risk management tool, aiming to secure profits by adjusting the stop-loss dynamically and reducing exposure to potential reversals.

No Manual Intervention: One of the primary benefits of using a Trailing Stop EA is the elimination of the need for manual intervention. The EA automates the process, allowing traders to benefit from favorable price movements without constantly monitoring the market.

Customizable Settings: Traders have the flexibility to customize the trailing distance based on their risk appetite and market conditions.

Trailing Stop EA streamlines the process of managing trades by automatically adjusting the stop-loss level as the market price moves favorably. This dynamic approach allows traders to capitalize on market trends while protecting profits, all without the need for continuous manual intervention.

Benefits of using an MT5 Trailing Stop EA:

Locks in profits: By trailing the stop-loss, you can secure a portion of your profits as the price moves in your favor, minimizing the risk of giving those profits back if the price reverses.

Reduces risk: The EA helps you manage your risk by automatically adjusting the stop-loss to limit potential losses if the price moves against you.

Saves time: You don't need to manually adjust your stop-loss orders, freeing up your time to focus on other aspects of your trading.

Removes emotion: Manual stop-loss adjustments can be influenced by emotions like fear or greed. The EA removes this human element from the equation, ensuring discipline in your risk management.

An MT5 Trailing Stop EA can be a valuable tool for Forex traders who want to automate stop-loss adjustments, lock in profits, and manage risk efficiently. When used responsibly, it can enhance your trading experience and potentially improve your results.

Conclusion:

Its implementation within the MetaTrader 5 platform brings efficiency, precision, and adaptability to the trade management process. Whether navigating volatile markets or capturing trends, the MT5 Trailing Stop EA serves as a reliable companion, allowing traders to focus on strategy execution while the EA takes care of the critical task of adjusting stop-loss levels dynamically.

[onlinetrustworld]

Car of About

A car (or automobile) may be a wheeled automobile used for transportation. Most definitions of cars say that they run totally on roads, seat one to eight people, have four wheels, and mainly transport people instead of goods.

Cars came into global use during the 20th century, and developed economies depend on them. The year 1886 is taken into account the birth year of the fashionable car when German inventor Karl Benz patented his Benz Patent-Motorwagen. Cars became widely available within the first 20th century. one among the primary cars accessible to the masses was the 1908 Model T , an American car manufactured by the Ford Motor Company. Cars were rapidly adopted within the US, where they replaced animal-drawn carriages and carts, but took for for much longer to be accepted in Western Europe and other parts of the earth .  If you want more knowledge then visit::  Service Manual

Cars have controls for driving, parking, passenger comfort, and a spread of lights. Over the decades, additional features and controls are added to vehicles, making them progressively more complex, but also more reliable and easier to figure. These include rear-reversing cameras, air con , navigation systems, and in-car entertainment. Most cars in use within the 2010s are propelled by an indoor combustion engine, fueled by the combustion of fossil fuels. Electric cars, which were invented early within the history of the car, became commercially available within the 2000s and are predicted to cost less to shop for than gasoline cars before 2025. The transition from fossil fuels to electric cars features prominently in most global climate change mitigation scenarios, like Project Drawdown's 100 actionable solutions for global climate change .

There are costs and benefits to car use. the prices to the individual include acquiring the vehicle, interest payments (if the car is financed), repairs and maintenance, fuel, depreciation, driving time, parking fees, taxes, and insurance. the prices to society include maintaining roads, land use, road congestion, pollution , public health, healthcare, and removing the vehicle at the top of its life. Traffic collisions are the most important explanation for injury-related deaths worldwide. If you want more knowledge then visit:: Service Manual

The personal benefits include on-demand transportation, mobility, independence, and convenience. The societal benefits include economic benefits, like job and wealth creation from the automotive industry, transportation provision, societal well-being from leisure and travel opportunities, and revenue generation from the taxes. People's ability to maneuver flexibly from place to put has far-reaching implications for the character of societies. There are around 1 billion cars in use worldwide. The numbers are increasing rapidly, especially in China, India and other newly industrialized countries.

[inhandnetworks-blog]

NAS opencart  A’s GRACE Mission Reveals Major Shifts in Global Freshwater

www.inhandnetworks.com

This map depicts a time series of data collected by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission from 2002 to 2016, showing where freshwater storage was higher (blue) or lower (red) than the average for the 14-year study period. Credits: NASA

In a first-of-its-kind study, scientists have combined an array of NASA satellite observations of Earth with data on human activities to map locations where freshwater is changing around the globe and to determine why.

The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, finds that Earth’s wet land areas are getting wetter and dry areas are getting drier due to a variety of factors, including human water management, climate change and natural cycles.

A team led by Matt Rodell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, used 14 years of observations from the U.S./German-led Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft mission to track global trends in freshwater in 34 regions around the world. To understand why these trends emerged, they needed to pull in satellite precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, NASA/U.S. Geological Survey Landsat imagery, irrigation maps, and published reports of human activities related to agriculture, mining and reservoir operations. Only through analysis of the combined data sets were the scientists able to get a full understanding of the reasons for Earth’s freshwater changes as well as the sizes of those trends.

Between 2002 and 2016, NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) tracked the movement of freshwater around the planet. Credits: NASA/Katy Mersmann

“This is the first time that we’ve used observations from multiple satellites in a thorough assessment of how freshwater availability is changing, everywhere on Earth,” said Rodell. “A key goal was to distinguish shifts in terrestrial water storage caused by natural variability – wet periods and dry periods associated with El Niño and La Niña, for example – from trends related to climate change or human impacts, like pumping groundwater out of an aquifer faster than it is replenished.”

Freshwater is found in lakes, rivers, soil, snow, groundwater and ice. Freshwater loss from the ice sheets at the poles – attributed to climate change – has implications for sea level rise. On land, freshwater is one of the most essential of Earth’s resources, for drinking water and agriculture. While some regions’ water supplies are relatively stable, others experienced increases or decreases.

“What we are witnessing is major hydrologic change,” said co-author Jay Famiglietti of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. “We see a distinctive pattern of the wet land areas of the world getting wetter – those are the high latitudes and the tropics – and the dry areas in between getting dryer. Embedded within the dry areas we see multiple hotspots resulting from groundwater depletion.”

Famiglietti noted that while water loss in some regions, like the melting ice sheets and alpine glaciers, is clearly driven by warming climate, it will require more time and data to determine the driving forces behind other patterns of freshwater change.

“The pattern of wet-getting-wetter, dry-getting-drier during the rest of the 21st century is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models, but we’ll need a much longer dataset to be able to definitively say whether climate change is responsible for the emergence of any similar  Verizon Embedded router pattern in the GRACE data,” he said.

The twin GRACE satellites, launched in 2002 as a joint mission with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), precisely measured the distance between the two spacecraft to detect changes in Earth’s gravity field caused by movements of mass on the planet below. Using this method, GRACE tracked monthly variations in terrestrial water storage until its science mission ended in October 2017.

However, the GRACE satellite observations alone couldn’t tell Rodell, Famiglietti and their colleagues what was causing the apparent trends.

“We examined information on precipitation, agriculture and groundwater pumping to find a possible explanation for the trends estimated from GRACE,” said co-author Hiroko Beaudoing of Goddard and the University of Maryland in College Park.

For instance, although pumping groundwater for agricultural uses is a significant contributor to freshwater depletion throughout the world, groundwater levels are also sensitive to cycles of persistent drought or rainy conditions. Famiglietti noted that such a combination was likely the cause of the significant groundwater depletion observed in California’s Central Valley from 2007 to 2015, when decreased groundwater replenishment from rain and snowfall combined with increased pumping for agriculture.

Southwestern California lost 4 gigatons of freshwater per year during the same period. A gigaton of water would fill 400,000 Olympic swimming pools. A majority of California’s freshwater comes in the form of rainfall and snow that collect in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and then is managed as it melts into surface waters through a series of reservoirs. When natural cycles led to less precipitation and caused diminished snowpack and surface waters, people relied on groundwater more heavily.

Downward trends in freshwater seen in Saudi Arabia also reflect agricultural pressures. From 2002 to 2016, the region lost 6.1 gigatons per year of stored groundwater. Imagery from Landsat satellites shows an explosive growth of irrigated farmland in the arid landscape from 1987 to the present, which may explain the increased drawdown.

The team’s analyses also identified large, decade-long trends in terrestrial freshwater storage that do not appear to be directly related to human activities. Natural cy lte cat 1  cles of high or low rainfall can cause a trend that is unlikely to persist, Rodell said. An example is Africa’s western Zambezi basin and Okavango Delta, a vital watering hole for wildlife in northern Botswana. In this region, water storage increased at an average rate of 29 gigatons per year from 2002 to 2016. This wet period during the GRACE mission followed at least two decades of dryness. Rodell believes it is a case of natural variability that occurs over decades in this region of Africa.

The researchers found that a combination of natural and human pressures can lead to complex scenarios in some regions. Xinjiang province in northwestern China, about the size of Kansas, is bordered by Kazakhstan to the west and the Taklamakan desert to the south and encompasses the central portion of the Tien Shan Mountains. During the first decades of this century, previously undocumented water declines occurred in Xinjiang.

Rodell and his colleagues pieced together multiple factors to explain the loss of 5.5 gigatons of terrestrial water storage per year in Xinjiang province. Less rainfall was not the culprit. Additions to surface water were also occurring from climate change-induced glacier melt, and the pumping of groundwater out of coal mines. But these additions were more than offset by depletions caused by an increase in water consumption by irrigated cropland and evaporation of river water from the desert floor.

The successor to GRACE, called GRACE Follow-On, a joint mission with the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), currently is at distribution fault detectionVandenberg Air Force Base in California undergoing final preparations for launch no earlier than May 22.

Publication: M. Rodell, et al., “Emerging trends in global freshwater availability,” Nature (2018) doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1

prestashop 多语商城, opencart 外贸商城, 网页设计, 网站建设, 企业建站, 商城网站, 集团网站, 海外网站, 营销网站, 网站推广, 华人网站建设, 华人网站维护, 华人网络兼职, china webdesign, webdesign, seo, joomla web design, 香港網頁設計, 網站建設, 企業建站, 商城網站, 集團網站, 海外網站, 營銷網站, 網站推廣, web design, joomla webdesign, wordpress webdesign, opencart webdesign, magento webdesign, durpal webdesign, vtiger crm, adempiere erp, compiere erp, hosting, domains, vps, email marketing, joomla 网页设计, wordpress 建站, magento 大型外贸商城, durpal 门户网站, seo 网站推广, 网站自然排名, joomla 網站製作, wordpress 定制開發, opencart 維護修改, prestashop 模板修改, magento 培訓實施, durpal 定制修改, seo 營銷推廣, 外鏈收錄排位, joomla, wordpress, opencart, prestashop, magento, durpal, zencart, crm, erp, edm, marketing, joomla template, wordpress themes, magento themes, opencart themes, prestashop themes, 崀山, 崀山科技, 崀山科技全球服务中心, LangShan Technology Global Service Center, LangShan Technology, langshantech, LangShan, china webdesign, 網頁製作, 網頁設計, 企业建站, 企業建站, 在線商城, 營銷網站, 網站推廣, 網站營銷, 排名推廣, 產品推廣, 主機維護, 公司兼職, 網站SEO, joomla seo, wordpress seo, joomla 網站推廣, opencart 網站推廣, prestashop 網站推廣, wordpress 網站推廣, magento 網站推廣, joomla 網站排名, prestashop 網站排名, wordpress 網站排名, opencart 網站排名, prestashop 多语商城, opencart 外贸商城, 网页设计, 网站建设, 企业建站, 商城网站, 集团网站, 海外网站, 营销网站, 网站推广, 华人网站建设, 华人网站维护, 华人网络兼职, china webdesign, webdesign, seo, joomla web design,

[damajority]

DaMajority Fresh Article https://www.damajority.com/nasa-satellites-reveal-major-shifts-in-global-freshwater/

NASA Satellites Reveal Major Shifts in Global Freshwater

NASA Satellites Reveal Major Shifts in Global Freshwater

WASHINGTON, May 17, 2018  — In a first-of-its-kind study, scientists have combined an array of NASA satellite observations of Earth with data on human activities to map locations where freshwater is changing around the globe and to determine why.

The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, finds that Earth’s wet land areas are getting wetter and dry areas are getting drier due to a variety of factors, including human water management, climate change and natural cycles.

This February 2016 global map of freshwater stored on land, made using data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, shows where freshwater storage was higher (blue) or lower (red) than the average for the 14-year study period.

A team led by Matt Rodell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, used 14 years of observations from the U.S./German-led Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft mission to track global trends in freshwater in 34 regions around the world. To understand why these trends emerged, they needed to pull in satellite precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, NASA/U.S. Geological Survey Landsatimagery, irrigation maps, and published reports of human activities related to agriculture, mining and reservoir operations. Only through analysis of the combined data sets were the scientists able to get a full understanding of the reasons for Earth’s freshwater changes as well as the sizes of those trends.

“This is the first time that we’ve used observations from multiple satellites in a thorough assessment of how freshwater availability is changing, everywhere on Earth,” said Rodell. “A key goal was to distinguish shifts in terrestrial water storage caused by natural variability – wet periods and dry periods associated with El Niño and La Niña, for example – from trends related to climate change or human impacts, like pumping groundwater out of an aquifer faster than it is replenished.”

Freshwater is found in lakes, rivers, soil, snow, groundwater and ice. Freshwater loss from the ice sheets at the poles – attributed to climate change – has implications for sea level rise. On land, freshwater is one of the most essential of Earth’s resources, for drinking water and agriculture. While some regions’ water supplies are relatively stable, others experienced increases or decreases.

“What we are witnessing is major hydrologic change,” said co-author Jay Famiglietti of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. “We see a distinctive pattern of the wet land areas of the world getting wetter – those are the high latitudes and the tropics – and the dry areas in between getting dryer. Embedded within the dry areas we see multiple hotspots resulting from groundwater depletion.”

Famiglietti noted that while water loss in some regions, like the melting ice sheets and alpine glaciers, is clearly driven by warming climate, it will require more time and data to determine the driving forces behind other patterns of freshwater change.

“The pattern of wet-getting-wetter, dry-getting-drier during the rest of the 21st century is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models, but we’ll need a much longer dataset to be able to definitively say whether climate change is responsible for the emergence of any similar pattern in the GRACE data,” he said.

The twin GRACE satellites, launched in 2002 as a joint mission with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), precisely measured the distance between the two spacecraft to detect changes in Earth’s gravity field caused by movements of mass on the planet below. Using this method, GRACE tracked monthly variations in terrestrial water storage until its science mission ended in October 2017.

However, the GRACE satellite observations alone couldn’t tell Rodell, Famiglietti and their colleagues what was causing the apparent trends.

“We examined information on precipitation, agriculture and groundwater pumping to find a possible explanation for the trends estimated from GRACE,” said co-author Hiroko Beaudoing of Goddard and the University of Maryland in College Park.

For instance, although pumping groundwater for agricultural uses is a significant contributor to freshwater depletion throughout the world, groundwater levels are also sensitive to cycles of persistent drought or rainy conditions. Famiglietti noted that such a combination was likely the cause of the significant groundwater depletion observed in California’s Central Valley from 2007 to 2015, when decreased groundwater replenishment from rain and snowfall combined with increased pumping for agriculture.

Southwestern California lost 4 gigatons of freshwater per year during the same period. A gigaton of water would fill 400,000 Olympic swimming pools. A majority of California’s freshwater comes in the form of rainfall and snow that collect in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and then is managed as it melts into surface waters through a series of reservoirs. When natural cycles led to less precipitation and caused diminished snowpack and surface waters, people relied on groundwater more heavily.

Downward trends in freshwater seen in Saudi Arabia also reflect agricultural pressures. From 2002 to 2016, the region lost 6.1 gigatons per year of stored groundwater. Imagery from Landsat satellites shows an explosive growth of irrigated farmland in the arid landscape from 1987 to the present, which may explain the increased drawdown.

The team’s analyses also identified large, decade-long trends in terrestrial freshwater storage that do not appear to be directly related to human activities. Natural cycles of high or low rainfall can cause a trend that is unlikely to persist, Rodell said. An example is Africa’s western Zambezi basin and Okavango Delta, a vital watering hole for wildlife in northern Botswana. In this region, water storage increased at an average rate of 29 gigatons per year from 2002 to 2016. This wet period during the GRACE mission followed at least two decades of dryness. Rodell believes it is a case of natural variability that occurs over decades in this region of Africa.

The researchers found that a combination of natural and human pressures can lead to complex scenarios in some regions. Xinjiang province in northwestern China, about the size of Kansas, is bordered by Kazakhstan to the west and the Taklamakan desert to the south and encompasses the central portion of the Tien Shan Mountains. During the first decades of this century, previously undocumented water declines occurred in Xinjiang.

Rodell and his colleagues pieced together multiple factors to explain the loss of 5.5 gigatons of terrestrial water storage per year in Xinjiang province. Less rainfall was not the culprit. Additions to surface water were also occurring from climate change-induced glacier melt, and the pumping of groundwater out of coal mines. But these additions were more than offset by depletions caused by an increase in water consumption by irrigated cropland and evaporation of river water from the desert floor.

The successor to GRACE, called GRACE Follow-On, a joint mission with the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), currently is at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California undergoing final preparations for launch no earlier than May 22.

For more information on how NASA studies Earth, visit:

https://www.nasa.gov/earth

SOURCE NASA

Related Links

[wikipress01]

Satellite study finds major shifts in global freshwater

The twin satellites of NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), energetic between 2002 and 2016, made detailed measurements of Earth’s gravity subject, enabling discoveries about gravity and Earth’s pure methods. A brand new study that used GRACE information, coupled with information from different satellites and printed experiences of human exercise, decided global-scale adjustments in Earth’s freshwater provides. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

A brand new global, satellite-based study of Earth’s freshwater distribution discovered that Earth’s moist areas are getting wetter, whereas dry areas are getting drier. The information recommend that this sample is because of a wide range of elements, together with human water administration practices, human-caused local weather change and pure local weather cycles.

The NASA-led analysis workforce, which included Hiroko Beaudoing, a school specialist on the University of Maryland’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), used 14 years of observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to trace global developments in freshwater in 34 areas around the globe.

The study, printed in the May 17, 2018 difficulty of the journal Nature, additionally integrated satellite tv for pc precipitation information from the ESSIC-led Global Precipitation Climatology Project; Landsat imagery from NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey; irrigation maps; and printed experiences of human actions associated to agriculture, mining and reservoir operations. The study interval spans from 2002 to 2016.

“This is the first time we’ve assessed how freshwater availability is changing, everywhere on Earth, using satellite observations,” stated Matt Rodell, lead writer of the paper and chief of the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “A key purpose was to tell apart shifts in terrestrial water storage brought on by pure variability—moist durations and dry durations related to El Niño and La Niña, for instance—from developments associated to local weather change or human impacts, like pumping groundwater out of an aquifer quicker than it’s replenished.”

Freshwater is current in lakes, rivers, soil, snow, groundwater and glacial ice. Its loss in the ice sheets on the poles—attributed to local weather change—has implications for sea degree rise. On land, it’s one in all Earth’s most important assets for ingesting water and irrigation. While some areas’ water provides are comparatively secure, others usually expertise will increase or decreases. But the present study revealed a brand new and distressing sample.

“What we are witnessing is major hydrologic change,” stated co-author James Famiglietti of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “We see, for the primary time, a really distinctive sample of the moist land areas of the world getting wetter—these are the excessive latitudes and the tropics—and the dry areas in between getting dryer. Embedded throughout the dry areas we see a number of hotspots ensuing from groundwater depletion.”

Famiglietti famous that whereas water loss in some areas is clearly pushed by warming local weather, such because the melting ice sheets and alpine glaciers, it’s going to take extra time earlier than different patterns will be unequivocally attributed to local weather change.

“The pattern of wet-getting-wetter, dry-getting-drier is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models for the end of the 21st century, but we’ll need a much longer dataset to be able to definitively say that climate change is responsible for the emergence of a similar pattern in the GRACE data,” Famiglietti stated. “However, the current trajectory is certainly cause for concern.”

The twin GRACE satellites, launched in 2002 as a joint mission with the German Aerospace Center (DLR), exactly measured the space between the 2 satellites to detect adjustments in Earth’s gravity subject brought on by actions of mass on the planet beneath. Using this methodology, GRACE tracked variations in terrestrial water storage on month-to-month to yearly timescales till its science mission ended in October 2017.

However, the GRACE satellite tv for pc observations alone could not inform Beaudoing, Rodell, Famiglietti and their colleagues what was the reason for an obvious development.

“We examined information on precipitation, agriculture and groundwater pumping to find a possible explanation for the trends estimated from GRACE,” stated Beaudoing, who additionally has a joint appointment at NASA Goddard.

One of the massive causes of groundwater depletion throughout the board was agriculture, which will be difficult by pure cycles as seen in California, Famiglietti stated. Decreases in freshwater brought on by the extreme drought from 2007 to 2015 have been compounded by groundwater withdrawals to assist the farms in the state’s Central Valley.

Southwestern California misplaced four gigatons of freshwater per yr throughout the identical interval. A gigaton of water is the equal of the mass of water in 400,000 Olympic swimming swimming pools. A majority of California’s freshwater comes in the type of rainfall and snow that collects in the Sierra Nevada as snowpack after which is managed by a sequence of reservoirs because it melts. When pure cycles led to dry years, inflicting diminished snowpack and floor waters, individuals relied on groundwater extra closely.

This map depicts a time sequence of information collected by NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission from 2002 to 2016, displaying the place freshwater storage was larger (blue) or decrease (pink) than the common for the 14-year study interval. Credit: NASA

Downward developments in freshwater seen in Saudi Arabia additionally mirror agricultural pressures. From 2002 to 2016, the area misplaced 6.1 gigatons per yr of saved groundwater. Imagery from the Landsat sequence of satellites exhibits the expansion of irrigated farmland in the arid panorama from 1987 to the current, which explains the elevated drawdown.

Natural cycles of wet and dry years can even trigger a development in the 14-year information file that’s unlikely to persist, Rodell stated. An instance is the western Zambezi basin and Okavango Delta, a significant watering gap for wildlife in northern Botswana. In this area, terrestrial water storage elevated at a mean charge of 29 gigatons per yr from 2002 to 2016. This moist interval through the GRACE mission adopted at the least twenty years of dryness. Rodell believes it is a case of pure variability that happens over a long time in this area of Africa.

The researchers discovered {that a} mixture of pure and human pressures can result in advanced situations in some areas. Previously undocumented water declines occurred in northwestern China in Xin Jiang province. This area, in regards to the dimension of Kansas, is bordered by Kazakhstan to the west and the Taklamakan desert to the south and encompasses the central portion of the Tien Shan Mountains.

Rodell and his colleagues needed to piece collectively a number of elements to elucidate the disappearance of 5.5 gigatons of terrestrial water storage per yr in Xin Jiang Province. Less rainfall was not the perpetrator. Additions to floor water have been additionally occurring from local weather change-induced glacier soften and the pumping of groundwater out of coal mines. But these additions have been greater than offset by depletions brought on by a rise in water consumption for the irrigation of cropland and evaporation of river water from the desert flooring.

The successor to GRACE, known as GRACE Follow-On, a joint mission with the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), is at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California present process remaining preparations for launch.

The analysis paper, “Emerging Trends in Global Freshwater Availability,” Matthew Rodell, James Famiglietti, David Wiese, J.T. Reager, Hiroko Beaudoing, Felix Landerer and Min-Hui Lo, was printed in the journal Nature on May 17, 2018.

Explore additional: GRACE-FO will assist monitor droughts

More data: M. Rodell et al. Emerging developments in global freshwater availability, Nature (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1

Journal reference: Nature

Provided by: University of Maryland

Source hyperlink from http://www.wikipress.co.uk/science/satellite-study-finds-major-shifts-in-global-freshwater/

[audiopedia2016]

What is CALMAR RATIO? What does CALMAR RATIO mean? CALMAR RATIO meaning - CALMAR RATIO definition - CALMAR RATIO explanation. Source: Wikipedia.org article, adapted under http://ift.tt/yjiNZw license. Calmar ratio (or Drawdown ratio) is a performance measurement used to evaluate Commodity Trading Advisors and hedge funds. It was created by Terry W. Young and first published in 1991 in the trade journal Futures. Young owned California Managed Accounts, a firm in Santa Ynez, California, which managed client funds and published the newsletter CMA Reports. The name of his ratio "Calmar" is an acronym of his company's name and its newsletter: CALifornia Managed Accounts Reports. Young defined it thus: “ The Calmar ratio uses a slightly modified Sterling ratio - average annual rate of return for the last 36 months divided by the maximum drawdown for the last 36 months - and calculates it on a monthly basis, instead of the Sterling ratio's yearly basis. ” Young believed the Calmar ratio was superior because “ The Calmar ratio changes gradually and serves to smooth out the overachievement and underachievement periods of a CTA's performance more readily than either the Sterling or Sharpe ratios. ” It should be mentioned that a competitor newsletter, Managed Account Reports (founded in 1979 by publisher Leon Rose), had previously defined and popularized another performance measurement, the MAR Ratio, equal to the compound annual return from inception, divided by the maximum drawdown from inception. Although the Calmar ratio and MAR ratio are sometimes assumed to be identical, they are in fact different: Calmar ratio uses 36 months of performance data, whereas MAR ratio uses all performance data from inception onwards. Later versions of the Calmar ratio introduce the risk free rate into the numerator to create a Sharpe type ratio.

[bencarlsonyahoofinance]

How Market Crashes Happen

Charlie Munger has long championed the benefits of acquiring worldly wisdom through the development of mental models which utilize a number of different subjects — physics, biology, sociology, psychology, finance, philosophy, literature, etc. — to understand the world and make better decisions.

As far as I’m concerned, Michael Mauboussin is Munger’s heir apparent in this effort. All of his books (the most underrated, in my opinion, being Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition), white papers, speeches, and interviews include thought-provoking studies, anecdotes, data and ideas from a wide variety of fields.

In his latest missive for Credit Suisse, Mauboussin tackles the active versus passive investment debate. This is one of the most well thought-out pieces I’ve read on this topic. It’s an investment nerd’s (i.e., me) dream.

Mauboussin brings up a study performed by Blake LeBaron, an economist at Brandeis University who has performed in-depth research on asset prices and market crash dynamics.

One of the more compelling arguments I’ve heard about the current state of the markets is that they’re more or less micro efficient and macro inefficient. The idea is that it’s becoming extremely difficult to pick securities, but the market as a whole can still become unhinged from reality. These explanations are never quite this simple, but it seems like the past 15 years or so has followed this blueprint.

Here’s LeBaron’s take on how market crashes tend to transpire:

During the run-up to a crash, population diversity falls. Agents begin to use very similar trading strategies as their common good performance begins to self-reinforce. This makes the population very brittle, in that a small reduction in the demand for shares could have a strong destabilizing impact on the market. The economic mechanism here is clear. Traders have a hard time finding anyone to sell to in a falling market since everyone else is following very similar strategies. In the Walrasian setup used here, this forces the price to drop by a large magnitude to clear the market. The population homogeneity translates into a reduction in market liquidity.

LeBaron is basically describing the herd mentality here. Once enough people hop on a trend or idea in the markets the momentum can feed upon itself right up to the point where it can no longer support itself. No one can really predict how far these things can go, but this is a nice definition of how bubbles are created.

One of the hardest parts about the markets is the fact that you know (or should know) eventually they’ll go down. You just never know how much they’ll drop once they start to fall. For example, I took a look at all of the double digit losses in the S&P 500 from 1928 to 2016 along with a split by different magnitudes:

Breaking stock market losses down even further gives you a sense of how often these losses tend to occur over time. Here are the frequencies in which certain loss thresholds have occurred, on average, in this same time frame:

5% losses three times a year.

10% losses once a year.

15% losses once every two years.

20% losses once every three to four years.

Average historical returns never tell the whole story because so few years or cycles ever follow the averages, but these numbers can be instructive. Stock market investors should expect to lose a little money quite often, see a correction occasionally, lose a decent amount every couple years and lose a lot of money on an Olympics-like schedule.

These definitions are by no means scientific, but that’s because it’s difficult to know in advance what will distinguish one type of market drawdown from another. Certainly, there are certain variables that can make some market losses worse than others — economic conditions, valuations, investor preferences, etc. But really it’s the human element that determines when things will go from a correction to a bear market to a crash.

And the problem with trying to predict when these things will happen, why they’ll happen or how far they’ll go is because of that human element. Very few people are able to accurately predict the actions of the entire group of market participants because the markets are made up of all sorts of individuals, businesses and organizations who have competing goals, idea, and desires.

I have no idea how I will personally feel tomorrow morning. How will I ever be able to predict how millions of other investors will be feeling one week, month, year or decade from now?

So here’s my mantra on future stock market losses:

Stocks will have periods of poor returns…

…I just don’t know when.

Stocks will have corrections…

…I just don’t know when.

Stocks will go into a bear market…

…I just don’t know when.

Stocks will crash…

…I just don’t know when.

This realization that you know something is eventually going to happen, but you have no control over when or why it will happen can be extremely liberating as an investor. Understanding what you do and don’t know is a huge step in the right direction in terms of thinking like Munger or Mauboussin.

Source: Looking for Easy Games: How Passive Investing Shapes Active Management (CS)

Further Reading: Charlie Munger’s Investing Principles

[audiopedia2016]

What is TAIL RISK PARITY? What does TAIL RISK PARITY mean? TAIL RISK PARITY meaning - TAIL RISK PARITY definition - TAIL RISK PARITY explanation. Source: Wikipedia.org article, adapted under http://ift.tt/yjiNZw license. Tail risk parity is an extension of the risk parity concept that takes into account the behavior of the portfolio components during tail risk events. The goal of the tail risk parity approach is to protect investment portfolios at the times of economic crises and reduce the cost of such protection during normal market conditions. In the tail risk parity framework risk is defined as expected tail loss. The tail risk parity concept is similar to drawdown parity Traditional portfolio diversification relies on the correlations among assets and among asset classes, but these correlations are not constant. Because correlations among assets and asset classes increase during tail risk events and can go to 100%, TRP divides asset classes into buckets that behave differently under market stress conditions, while assets in each bucket behave similarly. During tail risk events asset prices can fall significantly creating deep portfolio drawdowns. Asset classes in each tail risk bucket fall simultaneously during tail risk events and diversification of capital within buckets does not work because periods of negative performance of portfolio components are overlapped. Diversification across tail risk buckets can provide benefits in the form of smaller portfolio drawdowns and reduce the need for tail risk protection.

[audiopedia2016]

What is TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION? What does TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION mean? TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION meaning - TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION definition - TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION explanation. Source: Wikipedia.org article, adapted under http://ift.tt/yjiNZw license. Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic investment strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio's asset allocation. The goal of a TAA strategy is to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing. TAA strategies can be either discretionary or systematic. In discretionary tactical asset allocation strategies, an investor modifies his asset allocation according to the valuation of the markets in which they are invested. Thus, someone who invested heavily in stocks might reduce their position when they perceive that other securities, such as bonds, are poised to outperform stocks. Unlike stock picking, in which the investor predicts which individual stocks will perform well, tactical asset allocation involves only judgments of the future return of complete markets or sectors. As such, some practitioners perceive it as a natural supplement to mutual fund investing, including passive management investing. Systematic tactical asset allocation strategies use a quantitative investment model to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset classes. They are often based on known financial market anomalies (inefficiencies) that are supported by academic and practitioner research. For example, many systematic TAA strategies use quantitative Trend Following or Relative Strength techniques to produce excess returns. These both aim to capitalize on momentum, a well-known market anomaly. The efficient-market hypothesis would imply that tactical asset allocation cannot increase risk-adjusted returns, since markets are already efficiently priced. If a tactical approach were found that could increase returns without an increase in risk, investors would flock to that inefficiency, and the advantage would go away. Many investors do not accept this hypothesis, however, and believe that inefficiencies in the market persist and can be exploited. Many factors determine the success of a TAA strategy. The investor needs to have the necessary knowledge, practical investment skills, dedication, and discipline to design and/or execute a successful tactical strategy. The specific market anomalies on which the strategy is based may change or disappear in the future. Other factors such as risk tolerance, market timing, portfolio size, investment expenses, etc. may also affect the portfolio performance. Investors who utilize the tactical asset allocation strategy generally want to hedge risk in a volatile market. However, Larry Swedroe of CBS MoneyWatch described the strategy as an attempt to time the market, and provides an excuse for managers to increase revenue from trading fees due to the frequent activity the strategy requires. In a study conducted by Morningstar, Inc., they examined the "net annualized return, standard deviation, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown from July 31, 2010, to December 31, 2011," of 163 tactical funds. They concluded that only a small percentage of firms outperformed the Vanguard Balanced Index, the exceptions being PIMCO and GMO (Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo) Global Asset Allocation. Updated to June 2013, they found that 20 percent of funds beat the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, and just four had a better Sharpe ratio.