#Geoffrey Skelley

[yorickish]

You know, you look a bit like Geoffrey Skelley. Not the older photos of him, the newer ones with a beard and longer hair

come on man

[arpov-blog-blog]

...."It starts with a faulty premise. The No Labels website says: We are the voice for the great American majority who increasingly feel politically homeless. We’re . . . laying the groundwork to ensure the American people have a real choice in the 2024 presidential election . . . to bring our divided country back together and solve our most pressing problems.

In fact, the great majority of Americans do not act as if they feel politically homeless. While a plurality of voters call themselves independents, as Geoffrey Skelley noted in FiveThirtyEight, “roughly 3 in 4 independents still lean toward one of the two major political parties, and studies show that . . . [i]ndependents who lean toward a party also tend to back that party at almost the same rate as openly partisan voters.”

Third-party candidates have never come close to winning a presidential election. Even the immensely popular Teddy Roosevelt, the most successful third-party candidate ever, gained only 27 percent of the popular vote running in 1912 on his “Bull Moose” ticket. But he had a decisive effect on the election nonetheless: He split the Republican vote, and by taking 88 Electoral College votes he handed the presidency to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.

We could see that party result flip in 2024, with a No Labels candidate taking enough electoral votes to cause the incumbent Democrat to lose to the Republican."

A second scenario: A No Labels candidate could collect enough electoral votes so that neither of the two major party candidates wins the 270 needed to capture the presidency outright.

That would throw the election to the House of Representatives, where the president would be selected in a balloting that gives one vote to each state delegation—26 needed to win. Each state’s ballot is settled by a vote of the representatives in that state’s delegation, so the party that has a majority in each delegation is expected to decide that state’s ballot.

In recent years, Republicans have controlled more state delegations than Democrats, even when Democrats held the majority of members. That is likely to be the case on January 6, 2025, meaning that a House vote would give the country a Republican president. Even if a No Labels candidate somehow eked out a plurality of the popular vote, it is difficult to imagine that a House with no partisan adherents to that candidate would spurn their own party’s choice.

And there’s another dangerous possibility, one where the third-party candidate does not get any electoral votes but wins enough popular votes to skew the outcome away from what most voters want. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, who didn’t even crack 3 percent of the national popular vote, received 97,488 votes in the Florida presidential election that George W. Bush won by 537 votes, almost certainly costing Al Gore the state’s Electoral College vote and the presidency."

[zerotitulinews]

Cosa c'è dietro il basso indice di gradimento di Biden?

Cosa c’è dietro il basso indice di gradimento di Biden?

di Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight, 14 luglio 2022 [Geoffrey Skelley è analista elettorale presso FiveThirtyEight] In giochi come il golf, si vince facendo un punteggio inferiore a quello degli avversari. Ma nel campo dell’approvazione dei posti di lavoro presidenziali, un approccio del genere è una ricetta per lo sconvolgimento politico, come ha scoperto il Presidente Biden negli ultimi…

[righthandarm-man]

If you're going to write RPF of your boyfriend and his coworkers, why of all his coworkers would you choose Nate Silver when Micah Cohen and Geoffrey Skelley are right there?

[melyzard]

"I mentioned the possible litigation over Pennsylvania mail in votes that were cast by Election Day but didn't arrive until afterward, and how thats unlikely to consequentially alter Biden's eventual lead in the state. But its worth reiterating that none of the ballots counted up to this point include those, so Biden has taken the lead without the inclusion of ballots that arrived after election day."

- Geoffrey Skelley, statistical analyst for Five-Thirty-Eight

[nodynasty4us]

[Elizabeth] Warren would certainly meet the Ready on Day 1 test, plus she’d unify the party pretty well. I do wonder if she’s a case where the Biden campaign might be concerned that the VP pick outshines the presidential nominee. That’s on top of the concerns that her progressive views might alienate some in the middle.

Geoffrey Skelley in Five Thirty Eight

[hpcursedchildbway]

Broadway Year 1 alumni include  John Skelley as Harry Potter, David Abeles as Ron Weasley, Angela Reed as Ginny Potter, and Andrew Long as Snape,  Rest of the cast include  Yanna McIntosh as Hermione Granger,  Benjamin Papac as Albus Potter, Folami Williams as Rose Granger-Weaseley, Lucas Hall as Draco Malfoy, and Jon Steiger as Scorpius Malfoy with Theo Allyn, William Bednar, Ebony Blake, Melanie Brezill, Shannon Cochran, Irving Dyson Jr., Kita Grayson, Logan James Hall, Abbi Hawk, Corey Hedy, Kyle Hines, Nathan Hosner, Nicholas Hyland, Charles Janasz, Katherine Leask, Joel Leffert, Lily Mojekwu, Emily Murphy, Steve O'Connell, Erik Olson, Christian Pedersen, Julian Rozzell Jr., Tuck Sweeney, Geoffrey Wade, Lauren Zakrin, and Brittany Zeinstra

[snitchseekerofficial]

Meet the cast of @hpplayus for the west coast in #sanfrancisco, starting previews in October! #harrypotterandthecursedchild #cursedchild The cast includes John Skelley as #HarryPotter, Angela Reed as #GinnyPotter, and Benjamin Papac as their son #AlbusPotter; David Abeles as #RonWeasley, Yanna McIntosh as #HermioneGranger, and Folami Williams as their daughter #RoseGranger-Weasley; Lucas Hall as #DracoMalfoy and Jon Steiger as his son #ScorpiusMalfoy. They are joined by Theo Allyn, William Bednar, Ebony Blake, Melanie Brezill, Shannon Cochran, Irving Dyson Jr., Kita Grayson, Logan James Hall, Abbi Hawk, Corey Hedy, Kyle Hines, Nathan Hosner, Nicholas Hyland, Charles Janasz, Katherine Leask, Joel Leffert, Andrew Long, Lily Mojekwu, Emily Murphy, Steve O'Connell, Erik Olson, Christian Pedersen, Julian Rozzell Jr., Tuck Sweeney, Geoffrey Wade, Lauren Zakrin, and Brittany Zeinstra playing a variety of characters. https://www.instagram.com/p/B0q44siBVxU/?igshid=1bkz8a690d20

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

2022 Election

Georgia's Primaries May Be Trump's Biggest Test Yet

By Geoffrey Skelley

May 24, 2022, at 6:00 AM

Elijah Nouvelage / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Five states hold primary elections today, but it’s Georgia, with its busy slate of federal and state-level nomination contests, that is most on our minds. (You can read our preview of the other four states’ primaries here.) In total, 10 Georgia primaries have grabbed our attention, and in nearly all of them, the key question is once again whether the candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, mostly in connection to his false claim that his narrow loss in Georgia’s 2020 presidential vote was fraudulent, will prevail. Trump has become involved in almost two-thirds of the GOP primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, making Georgia his most endorsement-heavy state that’s voting today.

Yet Trump’s sway in Georgia may be limited. He’s endorsed seven non-incumbent Republican candidates across the six offices listed above, and while the five House incumbents he’s backed are likely to win, it’s unclear how many of the others will prove victorious outside of the Senate primary. This isn’t to say Trump’s influence is waning — remember that some of the GOP contenders he didn’t endorse are still pro-Trump — but it’s possible Georgia might be Trump’s most loss-filled state yet, which may discourage him from trying to throw his weight around in future primaries.

Races to watch: U.S. Senate, 2nd Congressional District, 6th Congressional District, 7th Congressional District, 10th Congressional District, 14th Congressional District, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general

Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Let’s start with the primary where one of Trump’s non-incumbent endorsees looks most likely to prevail: Georgia’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate, where former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker looks to be on a glide path to the nomination. Primary polling has put him at around 60 percent or better, clearly above the 50 percent threshold of support he will need to avoid a runoff, including a poll released last week by Fox News that found Walker garnering 66 percent of the primary vote. In that survey, his closest competitor was state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, who took just 8 percent. In fact, Black is the only statewide elected official running against Walker, but his campaign never really took off. Walker ultimately consolidated Republican support, even among some initially skeptical party leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Barring a big surprise, then, Walker will face Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in November. Some Republicans have worried that Walker’s past might make him a weak general election candidate; Walker has faced allegations of domestic violence and making threats toward women, and he has struggled with mental health and faced scrutiny over aspects of his business record. Notably, too, Warnock has already achieved a record-setting fundraising haul, meaning the incumbent will have the resources to exploit Walker’s problematic past in attack ads. That said, even if Walker is damaged by these issues, the Republican-leaning electoral environment might be enough to elect him anyway in a state that, despite President Biden’s victory here in 2020, leans somewhat to the right of the country as a whole.

Watch: https://ift.tt/nd2gYHo

It’s a different story, though, for Trump’s candidate in Georgia’s Republican primary for governor. There, former Republican Sen. David Perdue looks to be headed for defeat. Angry at Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to sign off on Georgia’s 2020 election results, Trump threw his weight behind Perdue’s primary challenge. However, things have not played to the former president’s advantage. Namely, Kemp holds a solid lead in the polls: The same Fox News poll we cited earlier found Kemp leading Perdue 60 percent to 28 percent, up from Kemp’s 50-39 advantage in Fox News’s early March poll. Meanwhile, a Fox 5/Insider Advantage survey released on Sunday found Kemp only leading 52 percent to 38 percent, but that result still largely falls in line with other polling data that suggests Kemp is likely to win renomination without a runoff.

Perdue has also lagged behind Kemp on fundraising, and his focus on the 2020 election hasn’t led voters to doubt Kemp’s conservative credentials. Moreover, polls suggest Perdue, who lost a Senate runoff in January 2021, may be a weaker general election candidate than Kemp against the presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stacey Abrams, who is running unopposed in her primary. Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams in the 2018 governor’s race, so the expectation of a competitive 2022 contest could be another consideration for GOP primary voters headed to the polls on Tuesday.

Trump likely won’t get his pick for governor, but his endorsed candidates for secretary of state and attorney general could find more success at the ballot box. And similar to Trump’s vendetta against Kemp, both picks are part of a widespread campaign to oust Republican incumbents who defended the legitimacy of the 2020 election and replace them with Trump-backed candidates who would then run future elections.

Take Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s chief election officer, who defended the legitimacy of Georgia’s 2020 results and rejected Trump’s demands to alter Georgia’s vote tally to put Trump ahead of Biden. This move earned Raffensperger Trump’s enmity and a significant primary challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Jody Hice. Speaking to Raffensperger’s vulnerability, Hice has outraised the incumbent $2.2 million to $1.7 million.

Yet Raffensperger still has a fighting chance, in part because he’s portrayed himself as a strong defender of election security by amplifying his support for Georgia’s new law that created more stringent voting rules. Limited polling over the past month and a half shows a highly uncertain race, too: One survey had Raffensperger ahead, another had Hice, and two others had the two candidates running neck and neck. With two other candidates also running, the race could go to a runoff, and the eventual GOP nominee could face a competitive general election against the Democratic nominee — most likely state Rep. Bee Nguyen, who has lapped the primary field in fundraising.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Chris Carr faces a head-to-head primary challenge from Trump-backed businessman John Gordon. Like Raffensperger, Carr has defended the integrity of Georgia’s 2020 election result, while Gordon has promised to expose the nonexistent widespread fraud. Just how weak Carr is, though, is tough to say. 

It’s possible Carr could have an edge, having raised nearly twice as much as Gordon, $2.6 million to $1.5 million, and he’s probably earned some goodwill among conservatives by launching or joining a number of lawsuits against the Biden administration. However, we don’t have a ton of polls of this race, and the ones we do have show a large share of undecided voters, suggesting it could go either way. The winner here will likely face Democratic state Sen. Jen Jordan in November in another potential slugfest.

Also near the top of the primary ballot is Georgia’s open-seat race for lieutenant governor. Unlike the incumbents running for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan decided not to seek reelection after criticizing Trump and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The GOP primary is now largely a contest between two state senators, Burt Jones and Butch Miller.

Trump has endorsed Jones, who has raised $4.1 million (including a $2 million loan to himself), and Jones has focused on election-related issues, including calls for an investigation into the 2020 election and the elimination of drop boxes for mail ballots. But Miller has rivaled Jones’s money, having raised $3.6 million. He’s also pushed more traditional conversative policy priorities in the state legislature, including a bill to ban transgender girls from playing high school sports that became law. He may also have gotten a late opening when news broke that Jones hadn’t been disclosing the use of his family’s private plane in campaign finance filings. But like some of the other down-ballot statewide races, there are a ton of undecided voters in the polls, so it’s hard to say how this race plays out. Democrats hope to make a play for this office, too, although they have a very crowded primary field, so a runoff seems likely to decide their nominee.

Turning to competitive primaries under Georgia’s new House map, Trump has weighed in on two open-seat contests in safely Republican districts. Former state ethics commission chair Jake Evans, Trump’s pick in the redrawn and now-much redder 6th District, may have a good shot at winning, too. Evans probably attracted Trump’s support thanks to his father Randy Evans, a major Trump donor who served as the U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg under Trump. And helpfully, the younger Evans had raised $1.6 million as of May 4, although nearly half of that was out of his own pocket.

Meanwhile, physician Rich McCormick, who narrowly lost as the GOP nominee for the 7th District in 2020, has raised $2.8 million (including $400,000 in self-funding) in his bid for the nomination. Two days before Trump backed Evans in early May, McCormick’s campaign released a poll showing him at 38 percent, far ahead of the rest of the nine-candidate field. But given the crowded primary field, a runoff seems likely, probably between Evans and McCormick, although another contender could also surprise — three others have raised at least $500,000.

Over in the dark-red 10th District, which Hice departed to run for secretary of state, former state Rep. Vernon Jones is also testing the power of a Trump endorsement. Jones initially announced a bid for governor, but Trump encouraged him to run here to help Perdue consolidate anti-Kemp support. But Jones, a Black man and former elected Democrat who attracted attention with his speech backing Trump at the 2020 Republican National Convention, previously represented areas outside this district and is potentially vulnerable as a recent Democratic officeholder.

Still, Jones has raised more than any of his seven opponents in the first four months of 2022, making him one of the front-runners here. Jones’s chief primary opponent is probably businessman Mike Collins, another strongly pro-Trump candidate who lost a primary to Hice in this district in 2014 and whose father Mac Collins served in the House for 12 years in the 1990s and early 2000s. We have no recent polling, but a runoff seems possible considering the crowded field.

The one House primary of interest where Trump has backed an incumbent is Georgia’s 14th District. In that seat, Trump endorsed lightning-rod Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who had to fend off a formal challenge by a group of voters attempting to remove her from the ballot based on allegations that she helped foment the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol.

One of Greene’s primary challengers, health care executive Jennifer Strahan, has attracted some notoriety and funding from outside groups in her bid to offer the district’s voters a conservative but less controversial alternative to Greene. However, Greene has raised a massive $9.3 million this cycle, so there’s little reason to think that she is vulnerable to a primary challenge. Democrats have a contested primary here, too, with a clear front-runner in U.S. Army veteran Marcus Flowers. But even if he does win the nomination, Flowers stands no chance of defeating Greene in this deep-red district, despite attracting ample attention and a dizzying amount of money.

The last Republican primary we’ll examine has seen no involvement from Trump, but it’s a race where the eventual GOP nominee could flip a Democratic-held seat. Longtime Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is defending the light blue 2nd District in southwest Georgia, and six Republicans are vying for the chance to take him on. We haven’t seen any polling here, but the favorite may be former Army officer Jeremy Hunt, who has outraised the rest of the field and has endorsements from Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Josh Hawley of Missouri. However, Hunt’s ties to the district are tenuous, as he only registered to vote in the area back in February, so it’s possible real estate agent and Air National Guard officer Chris West or former Trump administration official Wayne Johnson might be able to best him.

Having looked mostly at GOP contests, we’ll close with the most high-profile Democratic battle today: the party’s primary in the blue 7th District in suburban Atlanta. This increasingly bitter contest features one of the six member-versus-member primaries this cycle, and it’s a showdown between Democratic Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath. Last November, McBath decided to run in the 7th after Republican mapmakers transformed her formerly swingy 6th District into a safe GOP seat. On paper, though, Bourdeaux might have an edge because she currently represents 57 percent of the new seat’s population, while McBath only represents 12 percent.

Yet McBath, who is Black, may be a better fit than Bourdeaux, who is white, for a district with a voting age population that is only 33 percent white. McBath has also raised more money and has the backing of pro-gun control group Everytown for Gun Safety, given McBath first got involved in politics after her son was shot and killed at a gas station. McBath has also benefited from $5.1 million in spending from outside groups (including $1.9 million from Everytown), while hardly anyone has come in to help Bourdeaux.

Bourdeaux arguably has a slightly more liberal voting record than McBath, but that might be overshadowed by Bourdeaux’s effort with eight other Democratic House members last year to force a vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill before considering a larger social spending package, a move that drew the ire of progressives. Still, Bourdeaux has criticized McBath for abandoning her seat to Republicans without a fight, and with no recent polling, we don’t really know where this race stands. It could even go to a runoff, as state Rep. Donna McLeod is also running and could win just enough votes to keep both candidates under 50 percent.

Trump’s influence in GOP primaries will be sharply tested in Georgia, and a host of down-ballot races could prove to be quite competitive. We’ll be covering all of that on our live blog tonight, as well as the primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota and Texas, so please join us!

[patriotsnet]

Will The Republicans Win Back The House

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/will-the-republicans-win-back-the-house/

Will The Republicans Win Back The House

Effect Of Republican Retirements

Donald Trump pledges to help Republicans win back the House

Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So theres a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.

That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. Whats more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio and that was a popular incumbent running in a blue-wave election year .

Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight

Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch Platforms

The Squad Coasts To Reelection

Three high-profile Democratic members of the squad in the House of Representatives held their seats in a comfortable fashion.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will continue to represent New Yorks 14th District, defeating the Republican John Cummings by a wide margin, while Rep. Ilhan Omar also ran well ahead of the Republican Lacy Johnson in the race to represent Minnesotas 5th District.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib also defeated her Republican challenger, David Dudenhoefer, and will continue to represent Michigans 13th Congressional District.

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A Zombie Republican Party Will Overwhelm Joe Biden In The 2022 Midterms

President Biden promised he will restore the soul of America. Hes already running out of time. The commander-in-chief is 78 and unlikely to see out more than one term in office. By the time the pandemic crisis passes mid-2021, inshallah Biden could find his administration has run out of gas before it ever really got started. A week is a long time in politics. Two years can whizz by.

For now, Biden appears to hold the aces. He has a Democratic majority in the House Of Representatives and his vice president, Kamala Harris, can cast the deciding vote in a split Senate. The economy, stimulated to its guts, is expected to roar as this year goes on. His opposition, the Republican Party, looks prone wrecked by its calamitous marriage to Donald Trump. The Republican base still hates the Republican establishment and vice versa. The infamous storming of the Capitol on 6 January, we are told, has tarnished the American right for a generation or more.

The Republican Party, for all its problems, remains the strong favourite to win the House in the 2022 midterms, possibly by a large margin, and they may even take back the Senate

Trump or no Trump, the Grand Old Party marches on. The mistake pundits make is to confuse Republicanism with a normal democratic movement. It is more like the political equivalent of the undead a zombie army that horrifies every sane voter but somehow always wins because people hate the Democrats more.

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How Many Senators Are Chosen

The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.

Also Check: Republican Secret Meeting To Stop Obama

An Incoming Class Of History

Several of the newly elected state representatives are making history.;

The Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, who beat the Democrat Moe Davis to represent North Carolinas 11th Congressional District, will become the youngest member of Congress in modern history.

The Democrat Cori Bush is set to become the first Black congresswoman from Missouri after winning in the states 1st Congressional District.

The Democrats Mondaire Jones and Ritchie Torres will also be the first openly gay Black men to serve in Congress, after winning in New Yorks 17th and 15th districts respectively.

And nine out of the eleven Republicans who have so far unseated incumbent Democrats are women wins that will drastically expand the representation of women and especially of women of color in the House Republican caucus.

Currently, there are just 13 voting female Republican representatives in the House and 11 female Republican incumbents who ran for reelection in 2020.

Don’t Miss: How Many Democrats And Republicans Are In The House

Gop Lawmakers Threaten To Punish Democrats If They Win Back Control Of Congress

‘When we take the majority back in 2022, I’ll make sure consequences are doled out,’ said Rep. Madison Cawthorn.

Republicans are outraged that Democrats are governing by majority rule in the House. In retaliation, they are vowing to do the same things they now decry as unprecedented and wrong.

“Never in the history of our country has a Speaker acted like such an authoritarian,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted on Thursday.

He was upset that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had rejected his request to appoint Republican Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan to the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Both men voted to overturn the 2020 election results and pushed the lie that President Joe Biden only won because the election was stolen.

“Never in the history of Congress and the select committee I checked with the historian has this ever taken place, where the one party decides who’s all on the committee,” McCarthy told Fox News in a video he with his tweet. McCarthy in fact voted to give Republican then-Speaker John Boehner the exact same unilateral appointment power in 2014 for the Select Committee on the Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi.

But while House Republicans claim they are being mistreated because the majority won’t let them have their way, they are also promising to retaliate by turning the same actions they criticize now against Democrats in 2023.

TAGS

Democratic Accomplishments Just Give Republicans Something To Undo

Yes, even if the Democratic trifecta is very likely to end next year, and even if Republicans win their own in 2024, theres no way around the fact that in an amazingly short period of time Biden and his party may wrack up a mini-New Deal that reverses many years of atavistic Republican and meh Democratic policies. That has to be an enduring blow to Republicans, right?

Maybe not so much any more. One of the benefits of being conquered by a free-spending protectionist and isolationist is that the GOP is now pretty flexible in terms of its old Reaganite core ideology. As Rand Paul just cheefully said, if Democrats raise taxes something that horrified old-school Republicans like the ugly face of sin itself theyll just lower them next time they have the power to do so! Bidens accomplishments give the opposition an agenda, which is useful at a time when it isnt exactly brimming with policy ideas. Republicans may very well embrace the most popular Biden initiatives while demonizing the ones that dont poll so well. Its an easier strategy than the one they followed in those more principled days when they lectured voters about the need for entitlement reform.

Recommended Reading: Who Is Right Republicans Or Democrats

Inside Republicans’ Plans For A House Takeover

The National Republican Congressional Committee has identified 47 House Democrats it intends to challenge, though the district maps won’t be known for months.

Link Copied

House Republicans surprised nearly everyone last November when they almost captured the majority.

Then they spent January roiled by the deadly attack on the Capitol, confronting a second impeachment of then-President Donald Trump and answering for a whirlwind of offensive conspiracy theories from a firebrand freshman GOP congresswoman.

But the National Republican Congressional Committee has landed on a plan to regain the momentum with which it ended 2020: Ignore all that.

We’re gonna talk about all the stuff that matters to people, said NRCC Chair Tom Emmer, citing school reopenings and job security. We’ll follow through on a game plan. Hopefully, people will allow us to operate under the radar again because they won’t believe us. And we can surprise all of you again two years from now.”

And Emmer now in his second stint leading the House GOPs campaign arm brushed aside Democrats new strategy to link the whole party to QAnon: My colleague down the street might think that some fringe extremist theory is something that people care about, he said in reference to Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney , the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But fewer people believe in QAnon, Emmer said, than think the moon landing was faked.

By MERIDITH MCGRAW and GABBY ORR

The Midterms Introduced Extreme Divisive Politics

Scalise predicts GOP will win back House after ‘radical’ Pelosi-backed votes

As for the contracts lasting impact? Most of its ideas and proposals did not pass Congress, or were vetoed by Clinton, and, according to Teske, the ones that did pass were not radical departures and instead relatively minor in scope. But it did put Republicans back in power in Congress, which theyve largely held onto in the years since.

The Gingrich approach of extreme right ideas, combined with a scorched-earth personal level of politics in attacking opponentslater seen in Clintons investigations and impeachmenthas also had a major impact on American politics he says. It helped bring a much more win at all costs mentality, and a divisiveness that persists today.

Also Check: Did Trump Call Republicans Stupid In 1998

A Change Of Leadership In The House

Should Republicans take back the House of Representatives as expected, some changes will happen quickly. For starters, Nancy Pelosi will no longer occupy the role of House Speaker; furthermore, if the GOP regains the House majority, Leader Kevin McCarthy is widely expected to become the next Speaker of the House.

Last month, the Democrats passed the single most expensive spending bill in American history. It cost nearly $1.9 trillion dollars.

Lets see how your money is being spent.

Kevin McCarthy

Secondly, a GOP-controlled House would restore balance to Washington D.C. The days of Democrats being able to pass whatever bills they want with votes only from their party will come to an end. Getting Republicans back in control of the House means that Biden and Democrats will have to do more than just talk about bipartisanship.

What do you think about the latest survey from the National Republican Congressional Committee? Do you think the GOP will take back the House during next years midterm elections? Let us get your predictions for 2022 in the comments section below.

Election Senate Odds: Will Republicans Regain Upper Chamber

Democrats are narrowly in control of the U.S. Congress, but Republicans are licking their chops for next years midterm races because, over the last 30 years, the party out of presidential power has usually made substantial gains in midterm elections during a presidents first term, with the most substantial occurring in 1994 and 2010.

Given Democrats extremely slim margins of control, the prediction that the Democrats will lose at least one, if not both, chambers of Congress can be supported by historic precedents.

However, changes in the Senate have been less consistent than in the House. And given next years election trajectory in Congress upper chamber, the likelihood of a Republican takeover there deserves a second look.

Can Democrats hold their 50-50 majority in the Senate?

First, lets take a look at the collective odds for Congress.2022 Election Congress odds

Republicans only need a net gain of one seat to capture the Senate, but Democrats are well-positioned to make gains because the GOP will be defending more seats. Moreover, several seats are being vacated by Republicans in swing states where Democrats have experienced some electoral success over the past 5 years.

With the polarizing nature of the current American political landscape, neither oddsmakers nor bettors believe theres much of a chance that control of Congress will be split following the 2022 midterm elections but thats the most likely scenario at this point .

Recommended Reading: Senate Democrats

What Is The New Balance Of Power In The House

House Democrats held onto their majority but lost seats to Republican challengers.

More than a dozen incumbent Democrats lost re-election bids, despite earlier projections they could gain up to 15 seats.

Democrats took the chamber after they netted 41 seats in the 2018 midterm elections, their largest single-year pickup since the post-Watergate midterms of 1974. But some of those new Democrats were among the partys losers in 2020.

Rep Emmer On Why He Thinks Republicans Will Win The House

Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee and is leading the GOPs efforts to win control of the House in November. Emmer joins Judy Woodruff from Minneapolis to discuss his reaction to the Republican National Convention so far and why he thinks his party will win a majority in the House this fall.

Read Also: Leader Of The Radical Republicans

What Was The Outlook Prior To The Election

Republicans needed to get to 218 seats to win back the majority they lost in 2018. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, in early 2019 identified dozens of Democratic-held districts to target. They included;30 Democrats;who were elected or re-elected in 2018 in districts that voted for President Donald Trump in 2016. All but one Dave Loebsack of Iowa sought re-election. Most were first-term members who defeated or succeeded Republicans in the 2018 election. Republicans won some of these Trump Democrat districts but needed to unseat most to win back control of the House.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, identified more than 40 Frontline Democrats it expected to have very competitive re-election campaigns. Many of these members represented;suburban districts;that have diversified their populations in recent years. In most of these districts, Democrats were running for re-election for the first time. The Frontline Democrats amassed large campaign funds.

Democrats also identified more than three dozen Republican-held districts they intended to target, including seven in Texas.

Democrats also made a play for the suburban Texas districts of retiring Republican Reps.;Pete Olson;of the 22nd District and Kenny Marchant of the 24th District. They lost the 22nd District, but the 24th is currently too close to call, with Republican Beth Van Duyne leading.

Gop Control Of State Governments Gives It The Edge In Contest To Redraw Congressional Maps To Its Advantage

House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California, hopes to become speaker of the House after the November 2022 elections.

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The Census Bureau released the preliminary findings of its 2020 U.S. population count on Monday, setting the stage for a once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process that could in itself be enough to give the Republican Party the five additional House seats needed to recapture the majority following the 2022 midterm elections.

Under the new count, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will each lose a congressional seat. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Florida will gain one seat, while Texas will add two.

Read more: New York, California set to lose House seats; Florida and Texas to gain after Census Bureau reveals 2020 counts

New census data and reapportionment add challenges for the Democrats in the midterm elections, wrote Sarah Bianchi, political analyst at Evercore ISI, in a Tuesday note to clients, pointing out that states that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 election lost a net three congressional seats.

New York could be where Democrats decide to abandon a principled stand against gerrymandering and use their supermajorities to overrule the independent redistricting commission to create a map that nets Democrats four more seats.

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Nbc News Polls Predicts Republicans Will Win House Back In Massive Landslide

August 18, 2021, 7:40 am310 Views

According to a new poll, Republicans are on track to retake the House in a historic landslide in 2022.; And this isnt according to Fox News or another right-wing source, this is coming from NBC.

Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman told NBC.

Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.

Bigleaguepolitics.com reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.

As for the Senate, its anyones guess as to what will happen. The chamber is currently deadlocked at 50-50, and at least five GOP senators have announced that they will retire after next years midterms.

2022 will be an interesting and impactful year. Keep checking back with;Big League Politics;for midterm election coverage.

House Passes $35t Budget Framework After 10 Dem Moderates Cave To Pelosi

Trump has ‘no plans’ for third party but will help Republicans win back House and Senate in 2022

The House Democrat in charge of making;sure the party retains control of the chamber after next years midterm elections is warning that a course correction is needed or they could find themselves the minority again with current polling showing the Democrats would lose the majority if elections were held now.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told a closed-door lunch last week that if the midterms were held now, Republicans would win control of the House, Politico reported Tuesday.

Maloney advised the gathering that Democrats have to embrace and promote President Bidens agenda because it registers with swing voters.

We are not afraid of this data Were not trying to hide this, Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-chaired DCC,;told Politico;in an interview.

If use it, were going to hold the House. Thats what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action,;Persico said.

Maloney, in an interview with NPR, said issues like climate change, infrastructure, the expanded child tax credits, immigration policies and election reforms will;attract voters next fall.

Were making a bet on substance, Maloney said. Whats the old saying any jackass can kick down a barn, it takes a carpenter to build one. Its harder to build it than to kick it down. And so were the party thats going to build the future.

Maloneys dire warning failed to surprise some Democrats who have been sounding similar alarms.;

Read Also: Did Trump Say Republicans Are The Dumbest

[statetalks]

How Many Republicans Are In The Senate Currently

Filed Candidates By Political Party

Republicans on track to keep U.S. Senate majority

As of September 7, 2020, 519 candidates were filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for U.S. Senate in 2020. Of those, 402â199 Democrats and 203 Republicansâwere from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 527 candidates filed with the FEC to run for U.S. Senate, including 137 Democrats and 240 Republicans.

The following chart shows the number of filed candidates by political party.

Easy Races Tough Races

In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly has held strong, sustained leads in the polls for months over Republican Sen. Martha McSally.;

He’s an astronaut and husband of former lawmaker Gabrielle;Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in 2011 and became a gun-control activist.

In Maine, Trump has all but longtime incumbent Susan Collins. She appeared unbeatable until recently, winning;her last race, in 2014, by 37 points.

5 ways a Joe Biden presidency will affect Canada

She’s now trailing in the polls to the speaker of Maine’s legislature, Sara Gideon. Coleman said Collins is being pulled apart by the polarized politics of our time.

Collins frequently enrages Democrats and moderates by voting with Trump. Yet she also infuriates Trump allies; a research project by the news website Axios found that Collins is actually the No. 1 most likely of all congressional Republicans to condemn Trump in a controversy.;

“She’s really tried to walk the line of being a moderate in the Trump era. And that’s just very hard,” Coleman said.

Are Senators Chosen By Popular Vote

Beginning with the 1914 general election, all U.S. senators have been chosen by direct popular election. The Seventeenth Amendment also provided for the appointment of senators to fill vacancies. There have been many landmark contests, such as the election of Hiram Revels, the first African American senator, in 1870.

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List Of Current Members Of The Us Congress

Features of Congress Background United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Analysis Lifetime voting records Net worth of United States Senators and Representatives Staff salaries of United States Senators and Representatives National Journal vote ratings

The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the United States of America’s federal government. It consists of two houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives, with members chosen through direct election.

Congress has 535 voting members. The Senate has 100 voting officials, and the House has 435 voting officials, along with five delegates and one resident commissioner.

to find your representatives with Ballotpedia’s “Who represents me?” tool.

Us Senate Representation Is Deeply Undemocratic And Cannot Be Changed

Few, if any, other democracies have anything this undemocratic built into their systems.

The U.S. Senate, as you know, is currently divided 50-50 along party lines, thanks to the impressive double win in Georgia, and counting the two technically independent senators as Democrats, since they caucus with the Democrats.

But, according to the calculation of Ian Millhiser, writing for Vox, if you add up the population of states and assign half to each of their two senators, the Democratic half of the Senate represents 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half.

Millhisers piece is named after that fact: Americas anti-democratic Senate, in one number.

41.5 million. Thats a lot of people, more than 10 percent of the population . You might think that in a democracy, the party that held that much of an advantage might end up with a solid majority in the Senate, rather than have just barely eked out a 50-50 tie in a body that, taken together, represents the whole country.

Republicans have not won the majority of the votes cast in all Senate races in any election cycle for a long time. Nonetheless, Republicans held majority control of the Senate after the elections of 2014, and 2016 and 2018 and still, after the 2020 races, held 50 of the 100 seats.

GOP does better in lower population states

Works to the detriment of Democratic power

Its deeply undemocratic. Nothing can become federal law without passing the Senate.

Smaller states had to be reassured

Read Also: How Do Republicans Feel About Climate Change

List Of Current United States Senators By Age

This is a list of current U.S. Senators sorted by age. The United States Constitution requires Senators to be at least 30 years of age. Age does not determine seniority in the Senate.

As of August 29, 2021, 5 senators are in their 80s, 18 are in their 70s, 32 are in their 60s, 30 are in their 50s, 14 are in their 40s, and 1 is in his 30s.

The median age of currently serving Senators is 700921436488000000067;years, 339;days.

The median age of taking office for currently serving Senators is 51 years, 75 days.

The median length of their Senate terms to date is 700839925440000000012;years, 238;days.

Rank

United States Senate Elections 2020

U.S. Senate Elections by State U.S. House Elections

Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on . A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for regular election.

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.

Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.

Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.

On this page, you will find:

Information on historical wave elections

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How Is Senate Majority Chosen

The Senate Republican and Democratic floor leaders are elected by the members of their party in the Senate at the beginning of each Congress. Depending on which party is in power, one serves as majority leader and the other as minority leader. The leaders serve as spokespersons for their partys positions on issues.

Effect Of Republican Retirements

Republicans keep control of the House and Senate

Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So theres a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.

That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. Whats more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio and that was a popular incumbent running in a blue-wave election year .

Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight

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Many Republicans Mobilizing Against Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill

The bipartisan group of senators who crafted the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is preparing to take a victory lap as the Senate moves toward passing the bill in the coming days.

But a large number of Republicans are mobilizing against the bill that includes $1.2 trillion of spending and $550 billion in new spending on hard infrastructure projects, such as rail, ports, electric vehicle charging stations, and broadband.

Right after the group of bipartisan senators introduced the bills text on Sunday night, Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee gave a long floor speech in opposition to the legislation, arguing that the Constitution does not give Congress to go out and spend money on anything that we deem appropriate and that the price tag is too high.

Shame on us for making poor and middle-class Americans poorer so that we can bring praise and adulation to ourselves and more money to a small handful of wealthy, well-connected interests in America, Lee said.

Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley said that he would vote against the bill, sharing an article that called it an epic binge of green subsidies and more handouts for states and localities.

Several Republicans in the House are also stating their opposition to the bill.

No one should support something that will serve as a trojan horse for the Democrats reconciliation package, which the White House wants to use to pass massive amnesty, the RSC memo read.

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Recommended Reading: What Percentage Of Republicans Support Trump

About The House Of Representatives

The United States is also divided into 435 congressional districts with a population of about 750,000 each. Each district elects a representative to the House of Representatives for a two-year term.

As in the Senate, the day-to-day activities of the House are controlled by the majority party. Here is a count of representatives by party:

Also Check: Why Did Democrats And Republicans Switch

Republicans Secure Half Of Total Us Senate Seats

WASHINGTON U.S. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska won reelection Wednesday, assuring Republicans of at least 50 seats in the 100-member Senate for the next two years, while leaving control of the chamber uncertain until two runoff elections are held in Georgia in early January.

After slow vote-counting in the northwestern-most state of the U.S. after the November 3 election, news media concluded that Sullivan had an insurmountable lead over Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon who ran as an independent candidate with Democratic support. The contest was called with Sullivan, a conservative, ahead by 20 percentage points.

With Republicans assured of at least half the Senate seats, attention now turns to the two January 5 runoff elections in the southern state of Georgia.

Two conservative Republican lawmakers Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler now hold the two seats, but both failed in separate contests last week to win a majority, forcing them into the runoffs.

Perdue faces Democrat Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist who narrowly lost a 2017 race for a seat in the House of Representatives before trying to oust Perdue from the Senate seat he has held since 2015.

Loeffler, who was appointed to her Senate seat in early 2020, is facing Raphael Warnock, a progressive Democrat who is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.

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Govtrackus Is Taking A New Focus On Civic Education

Help us develop the tools to bring real-time legislative data into the classroom.

If youve visited a bill page on GovTrack.us recently, you may have noticed a new study guide tab located just below the bill title. This is part of a new project to develop better tools for bringing real-time legislative data into the classroom. We hope to enable educators to build lesson plans centered around any bill or vote in Congress, even those as recent as yesterday.

Were looking for feedback from educators about how GovTrack can be used and improved for your classroom. If you teach United States government and would like to speak with us about bringing legislative data into your classroom, please reach out!

Overlap With Other Forms Of Denial

Ultimately, the findings of this analysis show thatdespite overwhelming scientific evidence to the contraryclimate denial remains alive and well in the United States Congress, and its impacts are already costing lives. Furthermore, dangerous denial within Congress is not limited to climate change alone. By this analysis, 82 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and six U.S. senators are both climate deniers and members of the sedition caucusthose who denied the certified results of the 2020 general election and therefore supported President Trumps violent attempt to overturn these democratic results.*** There is also significant overlap between elected officials who deny climate science and elected officials who deny the reality of the pandemic that has sickened millions and claimed the lives of more than half a million Americans in the past year. In fact, as this analysis was being written, one congressman-elect and another congressman who had both cast doubt on the science around climate change died from COVID-19.

Members 1st: January 6, 2015 December 18, 20152nd: January 4, 2016; January 3, 2017

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Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate

Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats

Follow live updates on US politics

The 2018 midterm elections brought significant gains for Democrats, who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.

But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.

Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.

Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.

Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.

This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.

The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable

Senators Committees And Other Legislative Groups

Democrats win House, Republicans keep Senate

The Senates 63 members represent districts from across New York State. Senators belong to a single conference and one or more political parties.

Weve made it easy to filter senators by party, committee, and the other legislative groups in which they gather to consider the merits of proposed legislation and to better understand complex legislative issues.

Senator has new policy idea

Idea is drafted into a Bill

Bill undergoes committee process

Senate and Assembly pass bill

Bill is signed by Governor

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Arguments For Expanding The Number Of House Members

Advocates;for increasing the number of seats in the House say such a move would increase the quality of representation by reducing the number of constituents each lawmaker represents. Each House member now represents about 710,000 people.

The group ThirtyThousand.org argues that the framers of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights never intended for the population of each congressional district to exceed 50,000 or 60,000. âThe principle of proportionally equitable representation has been abandoned,â the group argues.

Another argument for increasing the size of the House is that is would diminish the influence of lobbyists. That line of reasoning assumes that lawmakers would be more closely connected to their constituents and therefore less likely to listen to special interests.

Why Are There 438 House Of Representative Members

On this date, the House passed the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929, fixing the number of Representatives at 435. The U.S. Constitution called for at least one Representative per state and that no more than one for every 30,000 persons. Thus, the size of a states House delegation depended on its population.

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Recommended Reading: Why Republicans Do Not Like Obamacare

source https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-republicans-are-in-the-senate-currently/