#GoldTradingSignals

[livionespoli]

Markets Are Way Ahead Of Reality

If the 35% surge in the S&P in the past two months seems too good to be true as even hard-core optimists like JPM's Marko Kolanovic now admits, announcing that he is "dialing down" his optimism while Goldman sees little upside for stocks from here...

... it's probably because it is, as the latest Wall Street professional to join the chorus of naysayers and skeptics including such luminaries as David Tepper and Stanley Druckenmiller, claims. In an interview with the Financial Times, Manolo Falco, Citigroup's co-head of investment banking said that financial markets were "way ahead of reality" with tougher times to come, and is warning corporate clients that they should raise as much money as they could before the pandemic’s true cost is factored in by investors. "We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn’t get any better,” Falco said, adding that "as the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks."

Manolo Falco, Citigroup's co-head of investment banking. His comments came at the end of a week when stock markets largely rallied even as relations between the US and China just hit rock bottom, as riots were about to break out across the US which now has more than 40 million unemployed, and as millions of businesses around the world remained shut and economies lurched towards their worst recessions in memory. "Markets are pricing a V , everyone’s coming back to work, and this is going to be fine,” Mr Falco said. “I don’t think it’s going to be that easy quite frankly" said the investment banking icon who just made Robinhood's shitlist. Investors’ optimism led investment grade companies to raise a record $1 trillion of debt in the first five months of the year, putting investment banks such as Citi on course for a surge in debt capital markets revenues in the second quarter of the year compared with 2019.

Citi is not the only bank to take advantage of the bond issuance feast, which has been explicitly backstopped by the Fed which as we learned last week has been busy buying up over a dozen ETFs.

Last week senior bankers predicted another strong quarter for trading. This was especially true at JPMorgan Chase, whose investment bank boss Daniel Pinto said trading revenues in the second quarter could be up as much as 50% compared with a year earlier. Falco was more circumspect on the prospect of a wave of activist investment in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. Low asset prices can tempt activist investors to buy into companies on the cheap and then look for ways to make them more profitable, often by cutting costs and jobs, but mostly issuing more debt (although with corporate leverage now at even record-er levels than just 2 months ago it is unclear just who has the capacity for even more debt). "You gotta be careful though because an activist can become very quickly a focus of governments if they really step in too hard at a time when people, what they want is to protect employment and to actually get things going in the economy," Falco said. "We’ve got to be careful because in some cases . . . maybe those are at the wrong time and could create a lot of anger." We doubt that: in fact, if activist investors step up and end up causing millions more to be fired, it will simply mean that the government's free handouts will have to be extended even further, Congress will have to pass even more stimulus bills, and the Fed will have to monetize even more debt bringing us that much closer to the period of runaway inflation so eagerly sought by the Federal Reserve. In other words, more layoffs mean win, win, wins for everyone, except those who still believe in working hard and saving, of course. Read the full article

[dailyforextips-blog]

IS it the best time to use gold tips and crude oil tips for investment?

It’s a dilemma for various commodity investors that whether it is a good time for investment in commodities or not using their gold tips for gold investment and crude oil tips for crude oil investment. In this article we are going to elaborate some points which will help you in deciding whether you should invest or not.

SINGAPORE COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK: In spite of safe haven flows surviving the widespread marketplace them on geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in Syria and saber by North Korea, traders are moving away from the worst of these ranges as yen, gold and treasuries erase their profits beforehand of the US open.

We all know that the price of oil and gold fluctuates. Oil prices and gold are in a rising mode from the starting of 2017. Singaporeans are taking gold as a safe heaven and trading gold using gold trading signals.

On the other hand, like every commodities, an investment in oil delivers a hedge against inflation. And because the rate of oil is simplest loosely related to the prices of most different things we spend money on, it could provide additional diversification. And that’s the reason of Singaporeans high pretence towards the crude oil trading tips for trading crude oil.

CRUDE OIL TIPS TO SHOW CURRENT CRUDE OIL STATUS: Crude oil remains in strong uptrend and extends rally into bullish days. Near above Fibo seventy six.4% barrier at $53.13 generated fresh bullish crude oil signals, as the previous long-tailed every day candle underpins clean extension greater.

Rising geopolitical tensions maintain oil rates supported, at the side of weaker dollar. Clean bullish extension is moving near goal at $53.78 beforehand of psychological $54.00 barrier and $54.41.

Firmly bullish each day research that formed double bull-cross of 10/100 and 10/55 SMA's underpin the action and forget about strongly overbought daily gradual stochastic, which maintains to move north.

Crude Oil rates have rallied, setting crude futures on track for longest winning streak in 9 month, as Saudi Arabia is pronounced to be lobbying OPEC and non-OPEC contributors to increase Nov. 2016, production cut beyond the H1, 2017.

This entire fact and figures shows rise in crude oil and it is considered as the best time to trade crude oil using crude oil tips.

GOLD TIPS TO SHOW CURRENT GOLD STATUS: Gold stays tall and consolidating above $1270, following sturdy rally on previously, stimulated by means of secure haven buying for on rising geopolitical tensions.

Fresh extension in current market published new 2017 high at $1279, which also marks the best traded since 2016. The rally is generating strong bullish gold trading tips.

Bulls are now focusing goals at $1286 and $1292, as global political uncertainty maintains sturdy bullish sentiment for gold. Inside the long-term, the technical shape shows that there's a growing upside momentum which shows that it is the best time to trade gold using gold tips.

BOTTOM LINE: From the current market conditions, it is confirmed that the gold and crude oil are rallying higher in commodity market which is showing the best time to trade gold using gold tips and crude oil with crude oil trading tips. But before taking any decision, it’s vital to take advice from reliable commodity advisor to avoid risks from trade.

[livionespoli]

A Sharp Reflex Rally

While it is indeed a sharp “reflex rally,”  With follow through today, please remember this: “Bear Markets” are not resolved in a single Day, Week, or a Month. Most importantly, "bear markets” do not end with “consumer confidence” still very elevated.    Notice that during each of the previous two bear market cycles, confidence dropped by an average of 58 points. This past week, we saw early indications of the unemployment that is coming to America as jobless claims surged to 10 million, and unemployment in April will surge to 15-20%. Confidence, and ultimately consumption, Which comprises 70% of GDP, will plummet as job losses mount. It is incredibly difficult to remain optimistic when you are unemployed. No Light At The End Of The Tunnel Yet The markets have been clinging on to “hope” that as soon as the virus passes, there will be a sharp “V”-shaped recovery in the economy and markets. While we strongly believe this will not be the case, we do acknowledge there will likely be a short-term market surge as the economy does initially come back “online.”  That surge could be very strong and will once again have the media crowing the “bear market” is over. However, for now, we are not there yet. Most importantly, as shown below, the majority of businesses will run out of money long before SBA loans, or financial assistance can be provided. This will lead to higher, and a longer-duration of unemployment. What the cycle tells us is that jobless claims, unemployment, and economic growth are going to worsen materially over the next couple of quarters. The problem with the current economic backdrop, and mounting job losses, is the vast majority of American’s were woefully unprepared for any disruption to their income going into recession. Two important points: The economy will eventually recover, and life will return to normal.  The damage will take much longer to heal, and future growth will run at a lower long-term rate due to the escalation of debts and deficits.  For investors, this means a greater range of stock market volatility and near-zero rates of return over the next decade. The Bear Still Rules History tells the story covering the last 8 full fledged bear markets: The should be sold into! In other words, if you have taken the decline thus far, When you see the rally explode up, sell it and preserve as much as you can before the next dip. On Friday, our colleague, Jeffery Marcus of TP Analytics, penned the following: When the 11-year bull market trend ended, other shorter trends were also violated.  In late February, the S&P 500 fell below its 14-month uptrend line, and in early March the 13-month uptrend line was violated.  Those breaks set in place the steep declines seen in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March. While it may seem like an epic battle is going on around S&P 500 2500, the real problem is the downtrend forming from the 2/19 high. TPA still continues to see real long term support in the 3% range between 2110 and 2180. A less likely move below that support, would leave long term support levels of the lows of 2014 and 2015. S&P 500 – Long Term

His analysis agrees with our own: “While the technical picture of the market also suggests the recent “bear market” rally will likely fade sooner than later. Such an advance will ‘lure’ investors back into the market, thinking the ‘bear market’ is over. Importantly, despite the sizable rally, participation has remained extraordinarily weak. If the market was seeing strong buying, as suggested by the media, then we should see sizable upticks in the percent measures of advancing issues, issues at new highs, and a rising number of stocks above their 200-dma.” On a daily basis, these measures all have room to improve in the short-term. However, the market has now confirmed longer-term technical signals suggesting the “bear market” has only just started. There are reasons to be optimistic about the markets in the very short-term. We will get through this crisis. People will return to work. The economy will start moving forward again. However, it won’t immediately go right back to where we were previously. We are continuing to extend the amount of time the economy will be “shut down,” which exacerbates the decline in the employment, and personal consumption data. The feedback loop from that data into corporate profits, and earnings, is going to make valuations more problematic even with low interest rates currently.  This is NOT the time to try and “speculate” on a bottom of the market. You might get lucky, but there is very high risk you could wind up losing even more capital. For long-term investors like our Wealth Preserver Members, just remain patient and let the market dictate when the bottom has been formed. As you can see in the image below, the InterAnalyst Green Buy signal will come as it has every other time. But it only signals when the market is on solid footing.  Bear markets never end with optimism, but in despair. So remain patient, it the bear will end and you will capture the slingshot move back up once the markets are on solid footing. Although we continue to author opinion and analysis, please remember that our writings do not replace the green buy and red sell signals derived from over 140 years of market analytics. Use the Wealth Maximizer Pro to help give you daily charts and signals to help with daily market direction. Apply those to the Wealth Maximizer Weekly charts and signals to give you more confidence in the direction. When the Wealth Preserver Monthly signal confirms both the Wealth Maximizer and Wealth Maximizer Pro memberships, you are prepared for the slingshot.   Members Version of A Sharp Reflex Rally Members please login to view your market signals and read the balance of this post for entry and exit points.   Read the full article

[livionespoli]

The Virus Peak & Stock Market Bottom

I cannot make any claims about the virus itself and this post is the reaction of major stock markets. A good explanation I’ve found on epidemics and exponential growth is this one on YouTube which I recommend watching if you are not already up to speed. Looking at the current situation it appears that the market has room to fall further as the economic fallout continues and the virus spreads. If the virus starts to slow down, it won’t be long before stocks find a bottom given the huge amount of stimulus that central banks are providing. The most important thing is that we need to see the number of new daily cases start to flatten out. Currently the virus is spreading at an exponential rate and that is causing businesses and services around the world to enter lock-down. That has dire consequences for company profits.

Exponential Growth

To summarize some of the information in the mentioned video above, exponential growth means that as you go from one day to the next you have to multiply by some constant. In the case of coronavirus, daily cases have been increasing by about 1.15 to 1.25 times the previous day’s cases. This results in an exponential curve with the number of new cases increasing on a daily basis. In fact, a virus provides a textbook example of exponential growth since what causes new cases are existing cases. However, there comes a time when exponential growth has to slow down. For example, as millions of people become sick there are fewer people that can be infected so the rate of new cases must decrease. Likewise, measures such as hand washing and limiting gatherings also have the effect of reducing the spread. So an exponential curve will eventually level out at an inflection point and turn into what’s called a logistics curve. At this point the number of new cases each day levels out and then starts decreasing. We have already seen this happen in China and now it is happening in South Korea too. New cases in China leveling out. Source: John Hopkins University. Growth Factor = No. New Cases Today / No. New Cases Yesterday A value over 1 indicates that we are still on the exponential part of the curve and there may be higher magnitudes of new cases ahead of us. In other words the growth is not slowing down. This is the case right now in the USA and Europe. Whereas a value of 1 means that growth is leveling out and a value under 1 means new cases are decreasing. Taking China as an example, the coronavirus spread began at an exponential rate which has gradually leveled off thanks to drastic shutdown measures. With new cases appearing to have peaked the country has been able to get back to work and reboot its economy. Meanwhile, the United States and Europe have only just started to see new cases increase, indicating that they are likely to be near the beginning of the exponential curve. What does all this mean for the stock market now? I think we need to see the growth rate of new cases in the US and Europe start to level off before we can put in a major stock market bottom. So we need to see the daily growth rate drop to one or below and then stay there, perhaps for a week or so. Once that happens I think we will see a bottom in stocks and a significant relief rally thanks to the huge amount of stimulus that is being provided by central banks. It is because of this stimulus that we will see the slingshot. Importantly, though, I don’t think we need to see growth rates level off for the whole world. It would be enough to see growth rates in the US and Europe start to slow for a bottom to be put in. That’s because these areas (plus China) account for the vast majority of global GDP. To keep on track of this I am using the coronavirus dashboard developed by John Hopkins University which seems to provide the most up to date and reliable figures that I’ve found. The dashboard provides the latest statistics on new cases which can then be used to calculate growth rates. 

For example, new cases outside China was 100.5k on Monday March 15th, higher than the previous day’s 81.7k cases and higher than the 75.1k cases on Saturday, a growth factor of 2.8. Analyzing these numbers it doesn’t seem all that surprising that 10% drop in US stocks that day coincided with a huge daily growth rate of 2.8 times (this is for locations outside Mainland China). Final Thoughts Ultimately, virus growth rates and the stock market are linked and so long as the curve is exponential the markets are going to struggle. Stock markets are likely to rally every time the virus looks to have been defeated, even when it’s not. The data isn’t entirely accurate so there is likely to be some false starts. It’s also possible that the market will be able to lead a flattening in the virus whether it is caused by luck, government intervention or some other reason. But eventually the market will get it right, it always does. That being said, when stocks are up and the exponential curve has leveled off, review your Daily, then your Weekly charts with signals for Green Light Trade Signals because that will mean we are close to a bottom, or the bottom may be in! Credit: Mr. Marwood, thank you for your research. Read the full article

[livionespoli]

A 100% Legal Insider Trading System

A 100% Legal Insider Trading System is legal is because directors are allowed to purchase and sell shares in their companies provided they do so in a timely manner and disclose their transactions with the SEC. It would make sense that company directors are best placed to evaluate the value of their businesses so the insider trading anomaly has been a fruitful line of inquiry for many researchers over the years. In 1976, a paper from Finnerty concluded that increased insider purchases led to excess returns of 4.6% in the first six months while insider sales led to excess returns of -2.4%. In more recent research from Jeng, the authors found that sales did not produce any meaningful results but insider purchases led to annual excess returns of as much as 11.2% over the S&P 500. However, subsequent research from the Handbook of Equity Anomalies used the same methodology and produced annual returns that were nearly 7% lower between 1978-2005. Nevertheless, the anomaly still shows grounds for development particularly in smaller cap stocks that are out of the realm of big firms. In one study from the same book mentioned above, small cap stocks that had seen intensive insider purchases produced excess returns of around 5% in the first month, with most of those coming in the first 10 days. This is illustrated in the following chart taken from the book:

Most of the return from insider trading comes in the first 10 days. Src: The Handbook of Equity Anomalies. Wiley. The Insider Trading Trading System & Strategy There are a number of online resources you can use to track insider trading such as Insider Monkey and SEC filings. You can then go long small cap stocks with strong insider purchases. You need to be quick as most of the return comes in the first few days. Have fun. Read the full article

[livionespoli]

Part 2: When Will The Markets Turn Up?

As I mentioned in yesterdays Bull & Bear Blog post, there was a gap to fill below yesterdays close. Today, traders put in their best efforts to close the gap, but failed to do so as you see in the chart below. Now that it is likely to break through and fill the gap, whats next?  The indexes like to break significant corrections into 3 phases with 2 rallies before they bottom.  So, lets take a look at one example of this that could repeat now. The image below is from the most recent correction in 2018:That drop lasted from October - December and bounced back in January. Usually corrections of significance take back roughly -20% from the top and are not considered bear markets. So as we can see in the top image, we have take only 9% from the top in relative terms, 11% less than in 2018. Nonetheless, we now live in 2020 and our run up to this correction was long and strong, so we are giving back some right now with the help of the Corona-virus.  Unlike 2018 this may not bounce back quite as quick  because the virus is spreading still. Because our Wealth Preserver signals have been so accurate at protecting against serious Bear Markets and sideways consolidating markets lets take a look at our famous question... "If today were the last day of the month, what would be the likely signal for the S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000?" Read the full article

[livionespoli]

When Will The Markets Turn Up?

When will the markets turn up?  Watch this short video to learn precisely when this will happen for immense profits!   Read the full article

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Velocity Of Financial Collapse

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Market Support Is Deteriorating Fast

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Has The U.S. Economy Plunged Into A Depression?

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Another Panic Cycle

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6 MUST FILL TRADING GAPS

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6 MUST FILL TRADING GAPS

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Why Mark Mobius says the stock market hasn’t seen an ‘absolute bottom’ yet

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Why Mark Mobius says the stock market hasn’t seen an ‘absolute bottom’ yet

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Is The Dead Cat Bounce Over?

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