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junker-town · 8 years

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Sunday Shootaround: Even the Blazers can't figure out the Blazers

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Even the Blazers can't figure out the Blazers

Paul Flannery

BOSTON -- It was about this time a year ago when the Portland Trail Blazers went on a heady run that elevated them from the ranks of also-rans into the exalted world of phenoms. Over a nearly two-month stretch the Blazers won 18 of 22 games, captivating their fans with a string of clutch performances and impressive victories.

They then built upon that success in the playoffs by capitalizing on the Clippers’ unfortunate injuries with a first-round upset and offering a reasonably strong accounting of themselves against the Warriors in the second round. Those were good times.

This season has not been so kind. The Blazers were inconsistent early and a disaster in December, losing 10 of 11 games. Things finally stabilized a bit and after beating the weary Cleveland Cavaliers at home last week for their fifth victory in eight tries, they were back in control of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. From afar it seemed like they were finally getting it together.

"I did too," coach Terry Stotts said. "Going into the Orlando game there were a lot of positive vibes."

Whatever positivity emanated out of that win over the Cavs, they dissipated by the time they took the floor two nights later against the Magic. The Blazers surrendered 115 points against the middling Magic, one of the worst offensive outfits in the league, and allowed a soul-sucking 36 points in the opening quarter.

Portland followed that up with back-to-back blowout losses on the road against Charlotte and Washington before blowing a double-digit lead in Philly and losing at the buzzer. Which is where we found them on Saturday, preparing to play the Celtics, and once again on the outside of the saddest of playoff pursuits.

"(Disappointment.) That’s the best word," Stotts said. "There is disappointment and you don’t want that to carry over to the next game and you can’t let that disappointment weigh too heavily on you. But yeah, there’s no question there’s disappointment."

If ever a team needed to salvage a game on the back end of a long road trip it was the Blazers. It wasn’t easy -- nothing is for this team -- but after outlasting the Celtics in overtime even the tiniest bit of salvation offers a glimmer of hope.

"There’s always going to be belief," Damian Lillard told me before the game. "I’m always optimistic in every situation. I believe in our group. I believe in what we’re capable of, but I think these times are the hardest. When you’re struggling the easy thing is to stop believing."

There is also a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of a playoff spot that is there’s for the taking. It may be small consolation and it may lead to an inevitable shellacking at the hands of the Warriors, but someone’s going to get that spot and it might as well be them.

"A lot of times when you’re in this situation you don’t have an opportunity to make the playoffs and we still do," Lillard said. "We’ve just got the team that sticks it out all the way through the good times and bad times. There’s always going to be teams that give into it, so we can’t be that team. We’ve got to be the team that keeps fighting and comes out on top and get us a playoff spot."

There is something to be said for small victories here. Their roster is still young (per Basketball-Reference.com only Philly, Oklahoma City, and Minnesota are younger), but it’s also entrenched. Nine of their 10 rotation players are signed through next season, and seven are on long-term deals. Only center Mason Plumlee will be a free agent this summer and he’s restricted. They have a $110 million payroll this season and that’s before C.J. McCollum’s extension kicks in. This season has proven to be either a massive roster miscalculation, or a painful speedbump in what should have always been viewed as a long-term rebuilding process.

Because they are so young, there is always the possibility for growth. To the extent that Portland can improve internally, it’s on the defensive end. Their offense sits below its top-six ranking of a year ago, but actually scores at a tick above their rate from the previous season. With Lillard and McCollum in the backcourt, points should never be a serious problem. It’s on defense where they rank 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions that’s problematic.

There are issues here that are obvious: Lillard and McCollum are not a good defensive backcourt. And some that are not issues at all: the Blazers do a surprisingly good job of protecting the paint without an elite rim protector. Still, this is mostly the same personnel that turned in an adequate performance on the defensive end last season.

They clearly missed the presence of Al Farouq-Aminu, who is their top individual and team defender earlier in the season, but he can’t fix everything. The Blazers were 7-11 when he was out of the lineup and are 12-16 when he plays. Aminu is good, but he’s not a panacea for everything that ails them.

Young Maurice Harkless has all the tools to be an equally capable defender even as he learns the finer points of team defense on the job. Ed Davis also does yeoman work inside, but beyond them are question marks. Short of trying harder and executing better, this roster will never become a defensive juggernaut, but again, it should still be better than what it’s shown.

The Blazers’ biggest problem, however, is the one they can’t control. After outperforming expectations a year ago, they came into the year with outsized projections and a mandate that has eluded them. That coupled with an offseason spending spree that saw Portland lock up youngsters like Harkless, McCollum, Allen Crabbe, and Meyers Leonard and included the expensive importing of Evan Turner, has created a perception that the Blazers are swimming upstream against the current. The season-ending knee injury to Festus Ezeli has also not helped matters.

"We expect a lot out of ourselves, regardless what everybody else expected," Lillard said. "Just like last year, nothing was expected and we still expected a lot of ourselves. We struggled and then we figured it out. It’s hard to be good in this league and when you’re not consistent it’s even harder."

As is often the case when surprising success stories come crashing back to earth a year later, their true level lies somewhere in between last year’s galvanized group and this year’s desultory version. Pragmatism is in short supply in a rabid market like Portland and they are often portrayed as a team in desperate need of a trade. Yet desperation leads to panic and panic often compounds mistakes that didn’t require a fix in the first place.

Blazers general manager Neil Olshey could tinker around on the edges, parting with some combination of his young supporting cast for an interior upgrade. Or he could go for the big shakeup, which would mean entertaining offers for McCollum. That seems unlikely.

Tempting as it may be, McCollum’s 4-year, $106 million extension doesn’t kick in until next season, meaning the Blazers are limited by the amount of salary they could take back. Beyond the cap machinations, such a move doesn’t really fit with Olshey’s M.O. He’s always prioritized drafting and developing players and Lillard and McCollum are two obvious points of pride.

Assuming they stand mostly pat at the deadline, this then falls on the players and coaches to figure it out. Despite it all they still believe in one another and in Lillard they have one of the game’s great leaders. He’s not about to let them wallow.

"It hasn’t been a challenge to keep guys together because we’ve truly have a tight-knit group," Lillard said. "We like each other. We’ve created a great work environment. We enjoy coming to the practice facility and we enjoy being around each other. That’s the hard part. You know we’re working hard. You know we’re together you’re just trying to figure out what do we need to do. Why aren’t we figuring it out faster? That’s been the toughest part. That’s the biggest challenge."

They have less than half the season to figure it out. By then we’ll know just who the Blazers really are and where they go from here.

The ListConsumable NBA thoughts

Now that we have the All-Star starters it’s time to focus on the reserves. Unlike the starters, who were chosen from a combination of fan, media, and player voting, the reserves are chosen by the coaches. Guaranteed there will be at least one controversial decision in each conference.

East Backcourt -- Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Thomas. These were my starter picks so I won’t belabor those arguments, but a point needs to be made about Lowry. Perhaps we have not made the case as forcefully as we should have, or maybe we took for granted that other people around the league recognized just how vital Lowry is to the Raptors’ success. So here goes: Kyle Lowry is the single most important player in Toronto (read: best), as evidenced by the fact that the Raps are significantly better when he’s on the court and much worse when he is not. That’s no knock on DeMar DeRozan, who was elected as a starter. But it is true. Lowry is not only the best player on the Raptors, he’s also the best point guard in the conference. There are a lot of other really good ones, and some may even be more talented, but Lowry stands above them all this season. He should have been a starter and he definitely needs to be a reserve.

East Frontcourt -- Kevin Love, Paul George, Paul Millsap. Let’s say something about the guy who’s missing here before getting to the ones who are on the list. Joel Embiid is amazing. He’s better than anyone thought he would be and he is currently on a fascinating tear through the league. Had he been doing this all season and not held back by a minutes restriction he would not only be on the list, he’d have a damn fine case for starting. But he is, so we’ll award the players who have logged significantly more time for better teams. Kevin Love, by the way, is quietly having the most impactful season of his career. See, it really does take time.

East Wildcards -- Kemba Walker, John Wall. Both have strong cases to be among the starters and both should be in New Orleans even if it means carrying five points guards. If anyone gets snubbed it’s going to be Walker, despite the fact that he is having as strong a season as any of the guards on the list other than Lowry.

West Backcourt -- Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul. Westbrook should have been a starter. He led both the media and the players vote but missed out because he finished behind James Harden and Steph Curry in the fan voting. For everyone screaming about the injustice, it’s on y’all. Paul is hurt and won’t be able to play, but he should be honored anyway. Considering the amount of backcourt talent in the West, his inevitable replacement will be more than worthy.

West Frontcourt -- DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, Marc Gasol. This is difficult but not impossible. Cousins has the numbers. Draymond has the defense, playmaking, and team success. Gasol gets the final spot on the strength of his all-around play and for keeping the Grizzlies competitive through their usual assortment of ailments.

Wildcards -- Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert. The Jazz duo get my final two spots over Mike Conley, Klay Thompson, and Damian Lillard. There’s a decent chance at least two of those three will make it to New Orleans anyway, either as reserves or as an injury replacement for Paul. (I’d take Conley under that scenario.) Hayward is quietly averaging 22-6-6, while Gobert -- the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year -- is a net rating monster.

ICYMIor In Case You Missed It

The next 4 years

How bold will the NBA be in asserting its commitment to what Adam Silver called its "principles and values" in Donald Trump’s America? Tom Ziller offers a thoughtful read on the situation.

Tough ballot

Turns out that voting for the All-Star starters was a difficult thing. At least Ziller agreed with my choices.

Into the weeds

John Gonzalez did too. I think there was a general internet media consensus on the starters, which is not the same thing as a general media consensus. We got further into the weeds on the Drive & Kick podcast.

Westbrook's burden

Zito Madu reminds us that freedom can be both a blessing and a curse as Russell Westbrook is finding out this season. Come for the illustration, stick around for the Miroslav Holub quote.

Goodbye, 44

We’d be remiss if we didn’t remember our first hoop-loving President. Tyler Tynes comes through with a rundown of Barack Obama nine most disrespectful moments on the court. Politics aside, roasting Paul Pierce is too low here.

Say WhatRamblings of NBA players, coaches and GMs

"I think, as players, you always want to protect yourself. I didn't think it would get to this point. It's very hard to get, very difficult to get. I have it and that's that. I'm committed (to staying). I don't have to prove that to anybody. I don't think I have to keep saying that. I don't think I have to keep talking about that. I know for a fact that people see that." -- Carmelo Anthony on his no-trade clause.

Reaction: This whole thing has just become sad for everyone involved. Melo deserves better. So does Jeff Hornacek and the rest of the Knick players. Lord knows the Knicks fans deserve better. You’d like to think there’s a happy ending in here somewhere, but it’s hard to see it from here.

"You just don’t have a choice. You have 39 more games to play. We have a bunch of games coming up against playoff teams. You don’t have a chance to feel sorry for yourself. It doesn’t do any good." -- Clipper guard J.J. Redick after the injury to Chris Paul.

Reaction: We’ve been writing the Clipper obituary for years and these guys always find a way to rise from the dead and regain some semblance of life. Assuming they can still make the playoffs, and that seems like a safe assumption, the Clippers will still be a dangerous team come spring.

"I think I kind of represent Twitter in the NBA. I like to think all the Twitter people, I represent them. But I never thought I would have this type of influence. I’m just trying to be me. If people enjoy it, that’s great." -- Sixers center, delightful human, Joel Embiid.

Reaction: And lo, NBA Twitter has found its king, and the people were glad.

"It’s easy to say we were supposed to be together for the rest of our careers, but it didn’t play out like that. I think all three of us will have memorable careers. And it’ll be a journey we’ll always remember, something that’s different and unique, playing with two different guys who are doing incredible things in the league right now. But when you look back, think about the fun times instead of what could’ve been." -- Kevin Durant on the early days of the Thunder.

Reaction: There’s no way they could have all stayed together and adapted to their roles. We all intellectually understand that, given that KD, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden are three of the top five players in the league. But man, what if?

"No, I didn't see that until just now, but I don't play that game. I'm gonna get his ass back. Whenever that is, I don't know what it's going to be, but I don't play that game." -- Russell Westbrook on Zaza Pachulia’s hard foul.

Reaction: Their next meeting is on Feb. 11 and it’s worth noting that Steven Adams was not in the lineup for OKC against the Warriors.

GIF Of The Weekfurther explanation unnecessary

We feel ya, Melo.

Designer: Josh Laincz | Producer: Tom Ziller | Editor: Tom Ziller

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