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a-very-fond-farewell · 6 years ago

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Bagginshield North & South au 1/4

Ok folks, I thought about how to make a North & South au (based on the BBC miniseries, not the actual book) without looking at any fic on the matter, because I didn’t want to be influenced by their (certainly brilliant) adaptations. So bear with me for the time being.

This is just a list of things that I would like to see in a N&S!au fic... but I have no energy to write that myself.

ATTN!1: I have changed many things, and it came out pretty angsty, with lots of pining and secrets that must be kept at all costs.

ATTN!2: I would have loved to explore the trans!Bilbo trope (either transwoman!Bilbo or transman!Bilbo), but I feel like I’m not the right person to give this idea the justice it deserves. I’m sure someone else could feel empowered in exploring that particular trope on their own, so it would be better for me not to rob them of such an opportunity.

ATTN!3: I’m just a nonbinary bean with terrible grammar and a knack for angst, also English is not my first language. I WILL ADD TO THIS.

Enjoy!

First Part:

In the mining town of Erebor, up north where the weather is crisp and the fog is as blinding as ever, the main source of income comes from the mithril veins hidden deep into the Lonely Mountain. Still fairly unknown to the masses as a viable alternative to steel for industrial products, mithril is considered to be nothing but a lower metal of very little use a part from being modeled as framing works for jewelry coming from the west.

Bilbo Baggins has followed his parents in this particular corner of the world after certain indiscretions had spread in the southern town of Bag End. At his cousin Prim’s wedding in London the previous summer, in fact, Bilbo had found himself rejecting the unwanted advances of a certain gentleman right before being discovered by his mother as the two men were parting ways from a very heated discussion in a secluded room.

In order to not let others know about such circumstances, Belladonna had shared her intention with her sister Mirabella to uproot in the north, at least until the rumors had dissipated. Bungo, as loving and trusting as ever, had simply accepted her decision and disposed for them all to move to Erebor. In doing so, he had consequently left his position as a parish in Bag End, not wavering in his faith, but merely willing to give his family what they needed to be happy.

Bilbo himself is no longer a lad: close to reach his thirties, many have speculated around the truth about his sudden return to his father’s home leaving his studies at Oxford out of the blue. Up until now, Bungo had protected his son by simply stating to the citizens of Bag End how needed Bilbo was, and Belladonna had made sure no mouths could run and shame her son in the meantime. But those days are over now, and their new town might not be as easily outsmarted this time around.

Heavy with sorrow for making his family move, Bilbo has resigned to keeping his life on check from now on, willing to sacrifice his happiness in order to keep his parents safe and healthy. Not being able to walk without a cane after his last days at Oxford, Bilbo finds himself constantly torn between revealing what had happened there and run away from all those eyes watching his every move. Luckily, in Erebor no one expects much of him, and any possible question regarding his lack of employment while he could no more benefit from being the only son of a parish is met with a simple gesture towards his bad leg. People seem complacent enough to overlook his poor excuse of a lie as long as they can speculate over his father’s decision to move up north.

Filled with guilt at the inability to defend his father against the rumors, Bilbo is reassured over and over again by his mother that they had made the right decision. The price for her understanding, however, seems to be an even greater burden for Bilbo: never speak of his true nature ever again, not even to his parents. Not even to himself.

Gandalf Gray, an old friend of Bungo’s, close enough to the family to understand the implications of their sudden uprooting, has decided to take Bilbo under his wing and show him around while his father has a chance to meet the pupils Mr. Gray has gathered for him to talk to. Having traveled all other the world, Mr. Gray is not new to the hardships Bilbo has encountered and his honesty and desire to help comforts Bilbo while he navigates the wastelands of melancholy that moving so far away has ensued.

While visiting one of the many mines belonging to the Durinson household, Bilbo finds himself shocked at the sight of its master beating one of his miners out of the mountain in a fit of rage. Little does he know what perils hide into the tunnels eroding the Lonely Mountain one inch at a time, or what are the dangers that fire and gas can bring to those working in the dark, with only the aid of candles and caged birds to save them from death.

Still, Bilbo tries to reason with said master, not knowing Thorin to be their landlord and one of his father’s pupils on top of that. Only thanks to Mr. Gray Bilbo is spared from Thorin’s anger by introducing him as a dear friend of his, but this doesn’t protect Bilbo from receiving yet another shock as the man simply turns and strides away after the worker he had just beaten up.

Meeting the man in his own home later that very same week, Bilbo is confronted with the absolute necessity from his part to embody a perfect son and the perfect guest, no matter how much he despises sharing a room with their landlord. But given the circumstances, he tries not to think about him too much while Bungo teaches Thorin all about philosophy and literature: he listens to their lessons half expecting to be invited to share his thoughts on his father’s many interpretations of the ancient sources... but eventually feeling much more at ease staying quiet by his armchair while the other two talk.

Judging from Thorin’s curiosity and will to learn, Bilbo convinces himself to have misjudged the man based on what he had seen at the mines, and later on investigates the matter further with his father and with Mr. Gray over a cup of tea. Apparently, after the sudden death of both of his parents when he was just a child, Thorin, his brother Frerin and their older sister Dis had been entrusted to the care of their grandfather, Thror: a man driven mad by his lust for gold to the point he had closed the mines twenty years before just to barricade himself inside the mountain in search of a vein of gold that never existed. Thorin’s little brother Frerin, small enough to wiggle his way in between the wooden bars Thror had used to close the openings, had looked for his grandfather anywhere before the main tunnel had collapsed on both of them one cold night of December.

Horrified by such a discovery, Bilbo has already spent many a day trying to find the courage to apologize to Thorin by the time he meets Bain, Sigrid and Tilda. The boy and his younger sister approaches him one day at the park, reminiscing of the way he had confronted Thorin at the entrance of the mine, where Bain works as well, while their older sister seems a little wary of Bilbo and apologizes to him for disturbing him so suddenly. On the other hand, Bilbo is overjoyed to have been met with such enthusiasm after weeks of isolation from actual social interaction and offers the siblings to walk them home... just as their father Bard comes into the picture, assuring Bilbo his services are not needed.

Intrigued by that little family, Bilbo tries to know more about them by lurking around the wooden houses destined to the miners skirting the suburban area at the bottom of the mountain, determined to pay them a visit with a basket of food to thank the kids for their kindness to him. Here, Bilbo gets to know the families of many of the miners, all relatively close to each other be it for family ties or friendship alone, that -surprisingly enough- seem more than happy to teach him a thing or two on how to survive the likes of Erebor and its masters.

From them comes the realization of how exactly Thror had compromised the economy of the city when he had closed the mines twenty years before. Many of the workers had found themselves jobless that year and, after the main tunnel had been deemed too dangerous to cross, new masters had come to the city and made their way with new holes into the mountain with no regards for safety. So many holes, indeed, that some workers avoided entering the Lonely Mountain for fear it could fall onto itself at any moment.

In all this, Thorin had been only sixteen and had to provide for his family now that his only guardian had perished in the depths of the main tunnel along with his little brother. Dis had been twenty then, and married a man coming from one of the richest families in town, who had provided for her and for their two sons up until his death, fifteen years before. Thorin, who had been fired to leave his studies in order to gain back his family’s honor by working for other masters, at twenty-one had made enough of a name for himself to be able to care for his older sister and nephews once more, as the customs required.

Dis, on the other hand, after losing her parents, grandfather, brother and husband, had accepted to go back home to her younger brother feeling like a caged animal, but not ungrateful enough to disregard the importance of the mines that brought them stability and wealth. Thorin, on the other hand, getting sterner by the year and low in spirits because of his newfound role as the head of their household, had become extremely protective of his family... just as much as Dis herself, the both of them manifesting some of the traits their own grandfather had shown by the time his obsession had piqued.

Even Bard and his kids had been willing to share some information with him by the time Bilbo discovers exactly how far the Durinson’s had prevented the growth of the town by limiting the number of caves under their watch. Bard himself seems set on hating the siblings for life, convinced the mountain could offer work to everybody without restrictions if only the Durinson’s were to let more people inside. He insists that gold lies under that mountain and that not even the Durinson’s should claim that vein for themselves while other masters have promised a job for everyone in town were the Durinson household to perish.

Struck by all those new revelations, one day Bilbo finds himself too overwhelmed to properly welcome Dis Durinson and her sons inside their home while his mother gets dressed upstairs. The woman strikes an imposing figure, just like her brother, dressed in all black with sober, yet quite beautiful blue earrings bringing out the coldness of her light-blue eyes. The oldest of her sons, affectionately called Kili by her, is roughly eighteen or nineteen years old and seems agreeable enough, asking Bilbo what wonders he has seen in London and what the south has to offer: curiosity getting the best of him contrary to his mother’s best judgment. Fili, instead, looks more lost than anything, not young enough to depend on his mother approval, but still not quite old enough to rebel against her composure and regal attitude.

Then, just as his mother welcomes them in her house, Bilbo notices how Belladonna has lost weight and how skirmish she looks. Being so distracted himself by his quest for knowledge in regards of Erebor and its history, Bilbo has completely overlooked him mother’s conditions and guilt overcomes him once more. Knowing that people were still talking about them because of the insinuations about his father’s decision to leave the Church, Bilbo is faced with shame and anxiety just by thinking how hard it must be for his parents to endure all of that pressure from the telltale coming from the upper society in town.

As he looks at Thorin’s sister and her impenetrable mask, he wonders how she must have felt when she had been married off to a rich man in order to save the family from disgrace. Because that is what the Baggins’ and the Durinson’s have been foreclosed to address, even if I’m different ways: disgrace. Profound and nasty disgrace.

Bilbo finds himself jealous of their luck in regaining control over their fate by hard work alone, but doesn’t voice his feelings as the woman and her sons leave. Nor does he want to speak of the matter with Thorin... until he does, while listening to his and Bungo’s usual lesson one day: feeling left out of the conversation, fed up with the way his family walks on eggshells around him, and impossibly frustrated with himself for not being able to seize Thorin’s character in his head, Bilbo accuses the man of being too full of himself to even care about the struggling miners, ready to strike in order to be allowed to look for gold in the mountain.

Immediately regretting what he has just said, already missing the opportunity to listen to Thorin’s deep voice asking intelligent questions, knowing how the man has been desperate to educate himself now that he had the opportunity to do so...Bilbo can only watch as Thorin greets him coldly and leave their house. Possibly to never return.

#bagginshield #the hobbit #n&s!au

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bryanfaganlaw · 6 years ago

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Divorce and your personal finances: How to prevent a split from your spouse being a spilt from your financial peace of mind

If you have need a best suitable service your Child Law experience, Divorce and your personal finances: How to prevent a split from your spouse being a spilt from your financial peace of mind Texas with the great process!

Houston Divorce Attorney: Divorce is complex. There are deeply personal components to divorce which make the process heart wrenching. You are separating, legally and figuratively, from your life partner and the stability which marriage can instill in our lives. All of the equity that you have built up in that relationship with that person is going to be destroyed in a matter of months. The toughest part is that one of you is asking the State of Texas to make it so.

On the other hand you have the practical/financial components to divorce. You will no longer be living with your spouse so you need to ask yourself where you are going to live. Should you stay in the home? Can you afford to stay in the home without your spouse’s income? You’ve worked hard throughout your life to save up for retirement- one that you assumed would include your spouse. Now that you are getting a divorce you may be thinking about where all the retirement savings are going to go. Will you have anything to show for your years of frugality and planning once your divorce is done?

Learning is the most important thing you can do for yourself before a divorce

Houston Family Lawyer: I imagine that some attorneys would tell you that the best thing to do when you find yourself in a vulnerable position is to go on the offensive and fight back. To some degree this is true, but not before you take the necessary steps to learn as much as you can about divorce in Texas and the implications of all of the circumstances of your particular case on the processes and laws surrounding divorce in our state.

Understanding the law and how your case is likely to fit within the confines of the law allows you to operate with a level of confidence that you could not possess otherwise. If you are confident in the facts of your case you can be confident in making decisions, and yes, in advocating for yourself and your rights.

Divorce is complex- I think you may have read that at some point in your life (maybe just a few paragraphs earlier). That doesn’t mean that you need to understand and know every single issue when it comes to a divorce in Texas. You don’t even need to know everything there is to know about your spouse. What you need to know are basic concepts and likely outcomes based on your case. Having an experienced family law attorney by your side to assist you during this process is one of the most important aspects of divorce.

Today’s blog post from the Law Office of Bryan Fagan, PLLC will introduce the topic of financial planning in anticipation of divorce. Specifically- the steps that you can take on your own before you even hire an attorney to prepare, what property is subject to division in a Texas divorce and how it is likely to be divided up is also relevant and will be discussed. While there is no surefire way to ensure that no missteps or errors in judgment will be made in your case, thoughtful planning and constant learning are essential to minimizing wrong turns.

Where will my/their/our property end up at the conclusion of the divorce?

Divorce Lawyer Houston: Maybe the most frequently asked question when it comes to the personal finances of potential clients of the Law Office of Bryan Fagan, PLLC is where will the person’s property end up once the divorce is all said and done. Will they be able to keep their retirement account? Will it be divided? What about the retirement savings of their spouse? How will that be divided (if at all)? These are all valid questions to ask, of course. You want to know the ending to the story and eliminate any fears or concerns about how to get to that end point.

For instance, if your divorce will be uncontested your property and that of your spouse may be able to be divided up by the two of you with no intervention from the court. This means that there can be no outstanding issues when it comes to property division. Questions about how to classify property as wither community property or separate property needs to have been answered by this stage. If you and your spouse have children you can have disputes as to the kids and end up in a trial, but if you have settled all issues related to property then much of the financial planning in your case is done on an uncontested basis.

Contested Divorces

Houston Divorce: However, if you and your spouse cannot come to an agreement on how to divide your property then a court may have to insert itself into your situation in order to solve the dispute. Let’s break down how property is classified in Texas and the effects of this on your divorce case.

Community property is all property that you and your spouse acquired during the course of your marriage. Exceptions to this rule are for property that you inherited from deceased relatives or property that you owned prior to your marriage. In Texas there is a presumption that all property owned by two spouses is considered to be community property so you should be prepared to prove to a judge that a piece of property is your separate property in the event that is a disputed fact in your divorce case.

Speak to your family law attorney prior to negotiating on this subject so that you can prepare a gameplan as to how you see the property in your marriage being divided up. If you need to organize your paperwork to show title in your name only for a home, boat or other piece of property you ought to do so, as well.

Just and Right division of marital property

The State of Texas will attempt to arrive at an equitable (fair) division of whatever property is ultimately deemed as community property. This means that the circumstances of your case will be evaluated in order to determine what is the best way to divide property that both you and your spouse have a claim to. The degree to which your employment earnings contributed to the purchase of the specific item as well as the future needs of each spouse will be determined by your judge.

Create a checklist to determine what is relevant in your life

No two divorces are created equal. Even if your attorney is extremely experienced in family law (which he or she should be if you are hiring them to represent you), they have never seen a case quite like yours. Help your attorney by compiling a list that details what you believe to be the most important issues in your case. Whether it is considerations regarding business interests of either you or your spouse, health insurance concerns, tax questions about divorce or the implications of divorce on your retirement create a list and discuss it with your lawyer. Do not expect your lawyer to have the ability to read your mind about what is important in your case.

More information on the financial components of divorce to be posted tomorrow

Houston Family Lawyers: If you have any immediate questions about how personal finances impact divorce cases please contact the Law Office of Bryan Fagan, PLLC. We offer free of charge consultations six days a week with a licensed family law provider.

Thank you for taking an interest in the topic of personal finances and divorce. Tomorrow we will discuss the topic of credit and its effect on people like yourself who are going through the divorce process. Being able to utilize credit in intelligent ways is an important factor in making it out of your divorce in a strong financial position ... Continue Reading

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fireflysummers · 8 years ago

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MOB PSYCHO 100 FANFICTION Job Offers

Serizawa outgrows Spirits and Such.

Nobody is happy with this.

There’s a man in a tan suit, exuding the same oily persona that Reigen does at times, but with far greater amounts. For some reason, he sets Serizawa’s teeth on edge, makes his skin crawl, and he makes a conscious decision to put Reigen between them.

They meet on the sidewalk, outside of a supposedly haunted house. The client is so sure of the haunting that he’s hired two psychic agencies, to ensure that the building is ready for renovations.

There’s no spirit there. Serizawa knows this, and nods at Reigen to make sure that the other man knows as well. All this has become routine, a familiar pattern that he can slip into, and try to forget the other man accompanying them of their tour.

The exorcism is, of course, uneventful. Reigen throws salt, the client pays in cash up front, and they part ways.

Or at least, that’s how it was supposed to go.

“Hey.” The other man’s voice stops them before Serizawa and Reigen can begin the walk to the train station. “You, tall one. You’re the real deal, aren’t you?” There’s an unspoken implication that Reigen, however, is not.

The client is already long gone, excitedly giving the green light for tomorrow’s renovations. There’s no danger to Reigen at the moment, but Serizawa’s skin crawls as the man speaks.

“Oh?” Reigen turns and crosses his arms, eyes narrowed and calculating, sizing the man up in every way.

“You know he’s a real scam artist, don’t you?” the man continues, ignoring Reigen altogether and sidling up to Serizawa, close enough that he can finally feel the other man’s aura. An esper, for sure. A weak one, but he too is the ‘real deal.’

“I mean, I am too but everybody in the business—all the real espers, that is—know your boss is a fraud. He was all over the news back last October. You’d have to be hiding under a rock not to know that.”

Serizawa wants to respond, but his mind stalls, trying to process this information. His mind flashes back, cataloging dates, wondering how he could possibly have missed this. And then it occurs to him that eight months ago in October, he had indeed been living under a metaphorical rock. Or an umbrella.

“All I’m saying is that you don’t have to hang around this guy, if you don’t want to,” the man gives him a sleezy grin, and with an oily slick motion slips a white business card into the pocket of Serizawa’s suit coat. “Our agency is always happy to bring new espers on board. Put your powers to good use, stop wasting your time with wannabes like this hack.”

With that, the man shrugs, turns, and leaves. Serizawa watches him go, still too stunned to properly register everything he’s been told. It takes him a moment to realize that Reigen has already begun walking, leaving Serizawa to jog to catch up.

When they get back to the office, Reigen immediately sits down at his desk. He’d barely said a word on the way home, uncharacteristically quiet with hands eerily still at his sides. There’s an expression in his eyes that Serizawa can’t place, one that he doesn’t like.

The expression doesn’t fade as Reigen clicks away at his laptop. Doesn’t fade when Serizawa brings him a cup of tea.

As Serizawa turns away to return to his usual place to do homework, Reigen catches him, a hand resting on his forearm.

“Hold on,” Reigen says, actually getting to his feet and motioning for Serizawa to take the seat. “I…well, I should’ve shown this to you earlier, but I don’t really like looking at the files myself.”

Confused, Serizawa sits awkwardly behind Reigen’s desk, using the mouse to peruse the folder Reigen has dug from the depths of his archives. There are about two dozen pdfs and a couple video files, all dated within a couple weeks of each other.

He doesn’t want to look.

He doesn’t know what is in those files, but he doesn’t want to know.

Serizawa feels his stomach clench and wants more than anything to return to his usual seat, but Reigen is watching him expectantly. So Serizawa swallows his anxiety and begins clicking through the archive.

They’re newspaper and magazine articles, and television news reports. With each successive report, Serizawa clutches tighter at the mouse, a nearly foreign rage rising from somewhere inside him. The final video, cut short by the explosion of electric lights and the destruction of news cameras, does nothing to set it aside. When at last he closes the file, he sits there in utter silence, trying to wrestle down his emotions enough to speak.

Reigen beats him to it.

“Sorry that’s…real bad,” he confides, and there’s a grating honesty in his voice that rubs against Serizawa’s skin like sandpaper. “I really should’ve told you before, I guess. Waiting until I didn’t have a choice makes me look sketchier, but well…” It’s never a good sign when Reigen flounders with words. But his distress only serves as fuel to Serizawa’s anger.

“Look, Serizawa,” Reigen says at length, “I’m not an esper.”

The silence stretches out between them. Reigen’s face is entirely closed now, waiting for a rejection he’s resigned himself to.

Serizawa lets out a long breath, the hot air hissing between his teeth.

“I know,” he says, forcing himself to continue while Reigen gapes at him with eyes wide. “I mean. My last job…I was supposed to find and fight espers. Some are better at hiding it than others, but…I can tell you aren’t one, Mr. Reigen.”

Reigen opens his mouth once, twice, an excellent impression of a fish struggling. And then he deflates, head bowed and cradled in his hand.

“Sorry,” he mumbles, “I thought that’s why you were…” Reigen sighs, and straightens. “It was all right, in the end, you know. Business went through a little boom after Mob’s little show of power at the press conference.”

“Besides,” he finishes, “I really…did it to myself. I was lucky Mob decided to come back and save my sorry ass.”

It’s really not all right, but Reigen is clearly done talking about it. He’s jumping topics again, faster than Serizawa can follow.

“So, a job offer!” Reigen says brightly. It takes Serizawa to catch on to what he’s talking about. When he does, he swears he can feel the little white business card burning in his pocket.

“It’s not really a job offer,” Serizawa mutters, ashamed that he hadn’t immediately thrown the card away.

“Of course it is!” Reigen says, clapping him on the shoulder. “You’ll be graduating from high school soon, won’t you? You should probably start thinking about where you’re going to go then!”

Oh. Serizawa thinks, his stomach dropping.

It’s not like he hasn’t considered it before, envisioning a nearly boundless future where before he had none. But it’s always been a daydream, and hearing Reigen say it feels…wrong.

“Don’t get me wrong, you’ve always got a place with me!” Reigen says, backpedaling, “It’s just…the world is your oyster! You should live while you’re still young!”

Serizawa doesn’t want to point out that Reigen��s rehashing one of the speeches he uses on Shigeo-kun. Doesn’t want to point out that Reigen is younger than him, but doesn’t seem to have any grand visions for his own future either.

But instead, he agrees politely and excuses himself from Reigen’s desk to go back to do his homework.

For the rest of the afternoon, the business card feels like it’s burning a hole in his pocket.

Serizawa is one semester away from graduating high school, and people are pointing him towards a career counsellor.

He doesn’t like the woman, with her stern eyes that peer out from rectangle glasses. He’s wearing his normal business suit, but the way that she eyes him makes the familiar fabric feel…claustrophobic. Uncomfortable.

He has to physically stop himself from squirming, or worse, from pulling back into his shell.

(He finds himself desperately wishing that Reigen had accompanied him.)

“Mr. Serizawa, you have…quite a resume,” she says at length.

He knows he does. He and Reigen had worked hard on that single page document, fleshing it out to bring out his prior ‘work experience’ without screaming to the word ‘reformed terrorist.’ It’s still too vague, he suspects, but he’s sure as hell not going to discuss those four years of his life with this woman here.

“So tell me, Mr. Serizawa,” she begins again, after several seconds of silence, “Your current place of employment is…Spirits and Such Consultation?”

“Yes,” he nods, glad that she’s picked on the one line item he’s comfortable talking about.

“It’s not really…well. I’ll just come right out and say it. You’re going to have a difficult time finding a job, based on that alone.”

Serizawa sits in stunned silence, reeling from the words. The way that the woman speaks makes it sound like the consultation is shameful. It’s not, he knows that as sure as the sun will rise, but her judgmental gaze still causes a blush to begin dusting his cheeks.

“You have a lot of potential, despite your late start in life,” she continues, “But I think you should consider seeking an internship somewhere, perhaps, to add some more…professional line items to your resume.”

“That aside, I would really suggest you look into careers with a little more stability. A small office like the one you work at must be barely compensating you, let alone offering benefits of any sort.”

That should feel like another dig at Reigen and his business, but this time Serizawa stops short. It’s true that he’s not paid much, but that’s never really bothered him before. He has funds left over from his time in CLAW, as well as a small inheritance left from by his mother. It’s not much, but he can live comfortably in his small apartment, and use his income from Reigen for food.

But Reigen…doesn’t have that luxury, he realizes now. Spirits and Such is his only source of income, and while business has picked up… he thinks back to the jokes he’s heard Kageyama’s brother make about how stingy the con man is, never compensating Shigeo-kun for his work. Thinks back to clients with little to nothing, who had their fees waived entirely. Thinks back to the meals Reigen has bought him after stressful days.

Thinks back, and for the first time wonders how much kindness costs.

The thought sits heavily in Serizawa’s stomach.

He barely makes it through the rest of the meeting, nodding vaguely at everything the counsellor says.

Back at the office, Reigen seems excited to hear about his talk with the counsellor. Normally, Serizawa would assume that it was the man’s normal excitement about his overall progress. Or at worst, that Reigen wanted to hear how well he’d done editing the resume.

But now, with thoughts of finances lingering over his head, the enthusiasm feels…different.

He leaves that day, ashamed that he did not notice sooner.

He’s not going to work for that consultation office.

Or any consultation office, if he’s honest with himself. The very thought feels like betrayal.

And that aside…if he’s going to leave Spirits and Such, he’d like to try something new. Something that doesn’t depend on his psychic abilities.

Even if it’s as dull as a desk job, it’s still something.

Secretly, he hopes to find something close to Spirits and Such. Close enough, maybe, to catch Reigen staying late at the office. Close enough to have plenty of excuses to take him out to dinner, in part to return the favor, and in part because…

He shakes the thoughts out of his head, and tells himself to focus on the tasks at hand.

In the end, he finds a job. It’s well paid (compared to what Reigen has been paying him at least), but it’s a good distance from Spirits and Such. He decides to take it though, after a long streak of bad luck. It turns out the counsellor, as condescending as she was, hadn’t been totally wrong about the state of his resume.

Reigen seems positively overjoyed when Serizawa presents to him the official offer letter, smacking him on the back and offering to take him out for a drink later. Unfortunately, Serizawa’s classmates had again beat him to it, and they’d had to reschedule for later in that week.

That, however, never entirely panned out because suddenly there was so much to do. And before Serizawa knows it he’s putting the few personal items he leaves at the office into a box, preparing to spirit them away to his new place of work.

Reigen helps, where he can, but clients come in and out as Serizawa packs, distracting the man. Soon, Serizawa runs out of ways to stall, and is left clutching his box and announcing his eminent departure. The office is blessedly quiet at that moment, and Reigen gets up from his desk and wanders over to where Serizawa stands, a strange knot of anxiety in his gut.

Reigen stands back a little ways, observing him with a crooked grin. There’s pride in his eyes, and the enthusiasm that he’s shown non-stop for Serizawa’s progress, but also something…else.

That something vanishes the moment Reigen begins to talk, vanishing into his exuberant words and rapid hand gestures.

“You got everything?” he asks, peeking into the box, “You sure you don’t want the stapler, to remember me by?”

“I’m not leaving for good, Reigen,” Serizawa replies, almost automatically.

“Sure, sure,” Reigen shrugs, tone unconvinced. “Either way, it’s the start of a new adventure, Serizawa! You should be proud of yourself!”

And he is. He really, really is.

If he’d told himself, not long ago, where he stood at this moment in time, his past self would not have believed him.

It feels good.

(Except that it doesn’t.)

That something has returned to Reigen’s demeanor, and he gently reaches a hand out, placing it on Serizawa’s shoulder. The look in the other man’s eyes is…calm. Placid, almost eerily so.

“You’ve grown up,” he says, a smile tugging at the corner of his mouth. “You’re going to be amazing, Serizawa. Text me, and we’ll get drinks, okay?”

“Thank you, Reigen,” Serizawa hears himself say, and almost in a daze, turns and leaves.

The world outside is bright, almost blindingly so, but Serizawa barely notices. There’s no spring in his step, no feeling of a excitement for the unlimited future ahead. His thoughts are jumbled again, but amidst all the mental noise Reigen’s farewell continues to ring.

You’ve grown up.

It takes him a moment to place where he’s heard Reigen say that before, in that same way.

The video of the press conference.

He’d only seen the video that once, and at the time had been so furious he could barely hear above the sound of his own heartbeat. But that’s when he’d said it before, right before the film was cut short in a show of psychic powers.

He remembers Reigen’s sparse explanation.

I really…did it to myself. I was lucky Mob decided to come back and save my sorry ass.

He’d been so, so angry at the time…angry at the cruelty of the people that Reigen had helped. Angry at the jealousy of other self-proclaimed psychics towards him. Angry that anybody would go out of their way to hurt Reigen so deeply.

He hadn’t even paused to wonder how this could have happened.

He hadn’t paused to wonder why Shigeo-kun hadn’t been there in the first place, supporting his master as he always did.

He hadn’t paused to wonder why Shigeo-kun had to come back. That there had ever been a time when Shigeo-kun had left.

He’s probably overthinking it.

Except that, it’s not too late to check. Just in case.

With a split second decision, Serizawa whirls and almost sprints back to Spirits and Such.

The office is exactly as he had left it, when he arrives. There’s something off, though, because he swears he hears a soft, watery gasp as the bell chimes to announce his return.

Reigen isn’t at his usual post, though, and the laptop is folded down and silent. It shouldn’t be hard to find him, but it takes a half second too long for Serizawa to spot where he sits on one of the couches. Reigen seems…smaller. He’s curled in on himself, so tightly that it looks like it hurts.

Of course, he immediately shifts when he hears the door chime, flying to his feet and stretching to make it look as though he hadn’t been hunched into a corner just a half second prior.

“Serizawa!” Reigen says, voice suspiciously thick. He clears his throat and manages to start the next sentence off with clearer tone. “I didn’t…did you forget something?”

“Yes,” he replies, slowly. Serizawa is watching Reigen’s face now. Eying red, puffy eyes and blotchy skin. Eying tear and snot tracks that had been hastily and unsuccessfully wiped away.

“Ah well. We’ll get you fixed up in a jiffy here,” Reigen confirms, nose obviously still a little stuffed. “I’m just…going to go make myself some tea.” He wants to escape into the kitchen area, Serizawa realizes. To compose himself. “You go ahead and look around for…whatever it is.”

“Reigen!” Serizawa’s tone is surprisingly sharp, desperate. He sends the box he’s still holding off, spinning away from him with idling psychic power. He crosses the space between them, hand outreached in an attempt to close the distance even faster. He manages to snag the sleeve of Reigen’s coat.

The other man has stiffened, eyes suddenly panicked. Before, there had been a chance that he could slip away to compose himself without anybody noticing his grave error. But now the signs were far too clear.

“Sorry,” Reigen says after a moment, “I didn’t…you weren’t supposed to see me like this.”

“Reigen,” Serizawa breaths, slowly adjusting his grip until both hands settle on Reigen’s shoulders. Still, the man does not look up at him. The floodgates have been opened, the last bit of self-control vanished. Try as he might, Reigen can’t hide the returning tears. He’s still mumbling though, watery words (mostly apologies), slipping out almost faster than Serizawa could follow.

“It’s pathetic, I’m sorry. I’m pathetic. I promise, I’m happy for you, I’m really happy for you, please don’t think…” his voice cracks a little, voice lowering to a whisper, “Please don’t think I’m trying to force you to stay here.”

One of Serizawa’s hands moves from Reigen’s shoulder, raising Reigen chin until their eyes meet. Or should meet, but Reigen still stubbornly looks away.

“Arataka,” he says at last, “Why didn’t you tell me?”

Reigen jumps at the sound of his first name, and finally, finally returns Serizawa’s gaze. He’s searching for something, Serizawa realizes, and hopes desperately that Reigen finds whatever he’s looking for.

Except he can’t risk that, this time.

So instead, Serizawa bends down, planting a gentle kiss on Reigen’s forehead.

The other man gives a shuttered gasp, but instead of pulling away he leans in, closing what little space is left between them.

Encouraged, Serizawa gives another butterfly kiss. Then another. Slowly, gently. Down from Reigen’s forehead, down the bridge of his nose, down his tear-streaked cheek. The tears have stopped now, though, replaced with wide-eyed shock and the awkward hitching-breaths that come after a good cry.

He pauses, a hair’s breadth from Reigen’s lips.

“I’m sorry,” he says, suddenly deeply ashamed, “I thought you wanted…needed me to go.”

Reigen’s mouth meets his, preventing him from apologizing forward.

And for once, there are no more words. Just the two of them, holding each other tightly, terrified at the thought of how close they’d both come to letting go entirely.

#mob psycho 100 #mp100 #serizawa katsuya #reigen arataka #seirei #my fanfiction

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yogaposesfortwo · 5 years ago

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As COVID-19 Reveals the Cracks in the Yoga Industry, Could a Universal Teachers’ Union Help Reshape Our Community?

This story is a component of a series covering the longer term of yoga during and after the coronavirus pandemic. Here, we take a glance at the progress the yoga unionization effort has made. Read more about the the precise challenges facing the industry in our second story: the longer term of Yoga: The Change we'd like . For yoga teachers round the world, their worst case career scenario arrived mid-March, when the coronavirus pandemic forced the closure of yoga studios and limited in-person contact for an indefinite period of your time . As quite 40 million Americans file for unemployment, many of whom lack insurance or paid leave , there has never been a more pressing time than this to think about the chances related to a yoga teachers’ union. It’s not a replacement thought. In fact, it’s an initiative that started with alittle group of YogaWorks teachers in ny back in February 2019. These teachers formed Unionize Yoga, the first-ever yoga teachers’ union to become certified by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). What began a series of internal discussions among YogaWorks NY teachers about what job security, insurance , and equity could appear as if for his or her profession, quickly reverberated throughout the corporate . The more conversations that happened , the more teachers realized that a lot of of their individual frustrations were aligned round the same issues. Then, just before Memorial Day , Unionize Yoga negotiations with YogaWorks concluded. an indoor email from the Unionize Yoga Bargaining Committee to YogaWorks NY teachers obtained by Yoga Journal disclosed the small print of a severance package for members of the YogaWorks Bargaining Unit. That unit, consistent with the e-mail , includes any YogaWorks NY teacher who had worked two hours or more within the four months before the closure of the NY studios—which shuttered in mid-April thanks to financial challenges. The severance package offered paid health care benefits to employees who were enrolled within the company’s health care plan (any employee who worked a minimum of 10 hours per week, which excludes many teachers) for 3 months following the closure date. Employees would even be guaranteed preference in hiring over non-YogaWorks employees at other YogaWorks’ locations should a replacement York employee relocate to a different market. It is alittle step, but one with implications for a way yoga teachers can organize moving forward, especially during a new era of online teaching and potential studio closures.

Equity, Diversity, and Job Security

The issues at Unionize Yoga’s bargaining table weren't specific to problems at YogaWorks NY—they were industry-wide, the union says. These problems include a scarcity of equity (a teacher with over 15 years at an equivalent company making, say, $40 a category , while a fresh teacher with little or no experience could make twice that counting on who shows up); a scarcity of diversity (studios that still hire and favor white, young, thin, able-bodied teachers rather than prioritizing different body types, ethnicities, cultures, ages, and identities); a scarcity of sustainability (the majority of teachers have alternative sources of income that supplement their teaching, or may have financial assistance from a partner or their family, and in some cases, even inherited wealth); and a scarcity of job security (many teachers may go for very low wages without insurance and lack financial stability). The union has also recognized the various teachers who don’t produce other sources of income at their disposal live under the poverty level and receive public assistance like subsidized housing, food stamps, and more. A fair wage for yoga teachers, consistent with the union, is one that might increase over time with experience, and considers other factors like the rising costs of living. YogaWorks teachers have acknowledged that the pay structure is everywhere the map with different teachers at different pay rates. Unionize Yoga has argued for a group and transparent pay structure in order that all teachers are conscious of where they stand and know where they’re headed as they progress in their careers. One of the most important elephants within the room, however, is that the perpetuation of existing privilege, the union says. If the yoga industry is defined by those that get to participate in it, Unionize Yoga indicates that by continuing to exclude marginalized communities, we’re defining what the industry seems like supported pre-existing biases. “It’s hard to ascertain the large picture until you’ve worked within the industry for several years and see these patterns repeat,” wrote David DiMaria, a spokesperson for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace (IAMAW), in an email. Of course, this perpetuation of privilege may be a byproduct of capitalism and systemic racism generally and isn't unique to yoga. But aren’t yogis alleged to be leaders and changemakers? More teachers of color are featured in magazines, emerging on social media platforms, teaching in studios, and giving their communities a voice. Rising star Lauren Ash of Black Girl in Om has been carving out a secure space in wellness for people of color since 2014, while yoga teacher, body positivity advocate, and Instagram megastar Jessamyn Stanley has been outspoken about how yoga is marketed toward “thin, white, affluent people.” Still, a 2017 National Health Interview survey found that more non-Hispanic White race practice yoga and meditation than non-Hispancic black people; 17.1% compared with 9.3%. While the industry could also be beginning to move the needle toward more diversity and inclusivity, we still have a ways to travel . Yoga Alliance, the most important nationwide professional organisation for teachers that exists within the yoga industry, provides guidelines for studios and parameters for teacher qualifications and aims to market integrity and variety within the industry. In late February, 2020, Yoga Alliance up-leveled its standards and launched a replacement ethical commitment code of conduct as an attempt to deal with inequities and lack of diversity within the industry. But, consistent with Unionize Yoga, only a teachers’ union and therefore the federally protected rights that accompany it could actually protect teachers, since unions have the proper to barter legally binding contracts with employers. Unionize Yoga says that a universal teachers’ union would prioritize the greater good of the group over the self-serving interests of the individual. The nature of the studio business model generally is to make a comparison culture among teaching staff, with pay structures often found out to encourage competition. In short, teachers are often rewarded financially supported the amount of scholars within the room. As an educator myself, I even have observed that the paid-per-head industry standard can force teachers to become salespeople, liable for recruiting and retaining students so as to raise—or sustain—their salaries. even as a freelancer or entrepreneur isn't purchased the time spent marketing their business, a yoga teacher isn't compensated for the “invisible hours” spent promoting their classes, including preparing for them. this might help explain why numerous teachers find themselves vying for the spotlight. This notion of hustling and jockeying is never , if ever, discussed in teacher trainings. If the yoga industry within the West has indeed perpetuated a culture of homogeneity that spawned separateness and competition among teachers, it’s possible that an industry-wide collective with the standards across the board could function a healing salve. “From the beginning , our vision was to reimagine the yoga industry and to return together to make sure the sustainability of our profession through fair and equitable pay, transparent and truthful communication, and a transparent path for growth, job security, and benefits,” says Tamar Samir, a yoga teacher and co-organizer for Unionize Yoga. While some are saying that the pandemic has forced an extended overdue shift within the yoga industry, without brick-and-mortar studios counting on teacher trainings to survive—many have already begun to shutter their doors permanently. And we’re still faced with an equivalent problem of too many teachers and not enough students. A teachers’ union could promote workers’ rights, seniority, equity, and variety for a brighter industry and a brighter future.

The Timeline of Unionization Efforts at YogaWorks

Within a couple of weeks of the first discussions at YogaWorks NY, what began as off-the-record talks among colleagues led to meetings with management, and eventually, the choice to officially organize and form a union. By the spring of 2019, the group was 80 members strong and dubbed themselves the ‘Teachers’ Initiative.’ that they had reached bent the Machinists' Union, or IAMAW, which focuses on the gig economy, under the advice of CorePower Yoga teacher Effie Morgenstern, who, at the time, was attempting to make a union herself (though CorePower employees filed a series of labor lawsuits against the corporate instead). By the summer, teachers in the least four remaining YogaWorks NY locations at the time began signing union cards in favor of the union, despite that Heather Eary, a regional vice chairman for YogaWorks, sent an email encouraging employees to not . Once teachers had reached their goal of obtaining 80 percent of employees’ signatures, they filed with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). On September 9, 2019, with support from the IAMAW, the Teachers’ Initiative took their campaign public as Unionize Yoga and sent a proper request to YogaWorks asking the corporate to acknowledge their union. That request was initially denied. Then on October 17, and again on November 14, all YogaWorks NY teachers got the chance to vote either for or against the union, to which an awesome majority voted in favor. Following that victory, YogaWorks teachers were certified as a union by the NLRB in ny . Fast-forward to March 2020: A bargaining committee of YogaWorks NY teachers and reps from IAMAW were within the throes of their second round of negotiations with the corporate . Unionize Yoga had moved mountains; its efforts echoed across the industry and beyond—even Senator Bernie Sanders has Tweeted about it—and teachers round the country were inspired by their efforts and commenced to mobilize in pursuit of upper standards themselves. Many teachers have reached bent the union for advice on how they could start one among their own. What had once seemed inconceivable for the yoga industry had become a reality. But then COVID-19 changed everything. In mid-March, shelter-in-place restrictions put an interruption on bargaining efforts between Unionize Yoga and YogaWorks. In an indoor email that was sent by Heather Eary on March 16 and obtained by Yoga Journal, YogaWorks teachers and staff were notified of a short lived two-week closure that might enter effect the subsequent day. the e-mail stated that teachers could use any accrued pay from their leave bank, which any staffer who wished to try to to nate their accrued leave to a “Leave Bank” had the choice to do so for those that had run out of leave pay. it had been available on a primary come, first serve basis until the bank was empty, with a maximum of 5 hours per employee (a noble effort, sure, but hardly enough to pay the bills). YogaWorks teachers, unlike most teachers at independent studios, are regular employees of the corporate , not independent contractors, which is why they’re eligible for perks like wage and which is additionally why they were ready to legally form a union within the corporate . And though YogaWorks employees who work 10 classes per week (or equivalent) are considered full-time and eligible for benefits like health care, consistent with Unionize Yoga, no teacher at YogaWorks NY had worked that a lot of hours. the amount of hours worked, of course, doesn't include the countless ‘invisible hours’ (class prep, travel, training, etc.), involved in teaching a category As studios everywhere closed, including all 66 YogaWorks locations across the country, the whole industry changed within the span of every week and shifted to online platforms. With the exception of its studios in ny , the U.S. epicenter of the novel coronavirus, YogaWorks began live streaming its classes, offering quite 1,000 per week. during a statement provided exclusively to Yoga Journal, YogaWorks said that despite considerable obstacles resulting from the impact of COVID-19, including the nationwide shutdown of studios and in hard impact areas like ny , that it might still promote “nationwide teacher-first policies that put teachers within the best position to succeed and grow within the future .” But the pandemic continued to wreak havoc on the economy, and, consistent with the teachers who were interviewed for this text , YogaWorks began furloughing a number of its management in April. leave banks dried up. YogaWorks’ out-of-work teachers on staff (at least in ny where no live stream classes were offered), were compensated with a $25 fee for every scheduled class they might have otherwise taught. Under normal circumstances, teachers’ regular pay rates at YogaWorks ranged anywhere from $35 to $125 per class—depending on somewhat ambiguous calculations of seniority, celebrity, and in fact , what percentage students came to class. YogaWorks teachers have said that this broad home in pay is anything but logical or systematic. There’s also a bump system that gives a flat rate per additional head after a particular number of scholars , but it’s unclear whether that system is that the same across the board. Despite that YogaWorks’ payscale is in some respects more generous and consistent than the pay-per-head standard at smaller studios, the shortage of structure within the pay system and transparency around it becomes problematic, teachers say, creating competition rather than collaboration. Eary’s email ended by reassuring employees that YogaWorks would begin “stronger than before.” But by mid-April, YogaWorks CEO Brian Cooper delivered the news that each one four remaining ny locations would permanently close as of Sunday, April 19, citing years of monetary difficulties during a competitive market. Cooper wrote that the ny region had been suffering losses even before the pandemic, despite efforts to enhance studio performance. within the past two years, two YogaWorks’ ny locations had closed (Westside and SoHo). Now that the corporate had lost its lease on the Eastside, the region’s only profitable studio, consistent with Cooper, there was no viable path to scale back the company’s losses and “get the ny region to break-even.” As the news rippled throughout the corporate and devastated ny teachers, Unionize Yoga was faced with a replacement challenge: How can they reach a contract with a neighborhood that has dissolved? As a NLRB certified union, however, their rights to bargain weren't suffering from the closure, and therefore the union continued to barter compensation and other issues that stemmed from the shuttering of the ny studios. “While our negotiations with this specific company may soon come to an end, teachers’ efforts to reshape their world is merely just beginning,” a rep from Unionize Yoga had said. The negotiations at the top of May provided a glimmer of hope for changing the industry at large. The severance package for YogaWorks NY teachers varies by employee and is predicated on their years of service, starting from two to four weeks' pay. A YogaWorks teacher who preferred to not be identified said that the corporate would cap the severance pay at $2,500. (The company requires any employees who accept the severance package to sign a non-disclosure agreement to stop them from suing the corporate or speaking out publicly about the corporate during a negative manner.)

Has the Unionization Effort Been Successful?

Was the deal a win for the union? The short answer: probably. Without it, YogaWorks NY teachers might not have received anything in the least , says a former YogaWorks teacher who asked to stay anonymous. Unionize Yoga had spent quite a year spent organizing and tirelessly campaigning for his or her cause, thwarted by the sudden turn of events that led to the closures of YogaWorks’ remaining ny locations. As negotiations with the corporate concluded, the severance package marked marked a historic a victory for the union. Unionize Yoga representatives say they'll be the primary group of yoga teachers to receive a severance package following a layoff. “We are pleased with our collaboration and accomplishments together and are thankful for everybody who has supported and encouraged so far ,” the union wrote in an Instagram post. As Samir has said, the union’s larger efforts to reshape the yoga world are barely beginning. As news of Unionize Yoga’s formation spread across the U.S. and teachers elsewhere considered the facility of mobilizing and forming collectives, the industry-wide camaraderie will continue. Beyond the borders of YogaWorks’ ny studios, the union’s collaboration with IAMAW, which features a reputation for non-traditional organizing within the gig economy, also will continue. New ideas for a post-pandemic world have already begun to require shape, from the likelihood of a universal yoga teachers’ cooperative almost like an actors’ guild. “The solidarity, mutual support, and trust formed during this initiative can't be dissolved,” Samir said. “It will simply shape shift into another form.” Author: Andrea Rice Source: https://www.yogajournal.com/teach/unionize-yoga-and-covid-19 Discover more info about Yoga Poses for Two People here: Yoga Poses for Two Read the full article

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thechasefiles · 5 years ago

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The Chase Files Daily Newscap 30/1/2020

Good Morning #realdreamchasers ! Here is your daily news cap for Thursday January 30th, 2020. There is a lot to read and digest so take your time. Remember you can read full articles via Barbados Government Information Service (BGIS), Barbados Today (BT), or by purchasing a Daily Nation Newspaper (DN).

GROWTH SPURT – Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes is predicting an ambitious growth rate of between 1.25 per cent and 1.75 per cent for the economy this year, at least 0.7 per cent higher than projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, he is confident that Government will achieve its target of six per cent primary balance by the end of March. He gave this optimistic assessment on Wednesday as he presented his economic review of the economy for the January to December 2019 period. With just two months to go before the end of the current fiscal year, Haynes said Government’s primary balance was currently around 4.8 per cent. He attributed the improvement of the primary balance over the first nine months of the current fiscal year to the strengthening of public finances, which he said represented Government’s commitment to achieving its fiscal targets.“Based on what I have seen so far in January I think we have made further progress and we anticipate that coming towards the end of the fiscal year that we will be able to achieve the six per cent target . . . the [International Monetary Fund (IMF)] programme is predicated on our ability to achieve six per cent so we have to do what is necessary,” said Haynes, adding: “I believe we are on track.” In his outlook, Haynes said fiscal consolidation efforts would continue to be the “bedrock of macroeconomic stability”, adding that achieving the targeted primary balance at the end of fiscal year 2019/2020 remained “critical” to building on the progress made in 2019. “Such efforts will reduce public sector indebtedness, restore investor confidence and facilitate further sovereign credit rating upgrades,” Haynes said. During the first nine months of the fiscal year Government’s expenditure is estimated to have declined by about nine per cent.“Grants to public institutions, the source of rising expenditure in recent years, contracted by $122 million due to the domestic debt restructuring and budgetary reforms of some state-owned entities,” said Haynes. He explained that the major impact related to reduced transfers to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital (QEH), the removal of Government funding to the Sanitation Services Authority and the Barbados Tourism Management Inc., which are now being funded directly by the Health Services Levy, the Garbage and Sewage Contribution fee and the Airline Travel and Tourism Development Fee respectively. The overall reforms introduced over the past 18 months increased revenue collection.“A 34 per cent increase in property taxes, on the strength of higher land tax rates, drove the gains in tax revenues,” said Haynes. He also reported a marginal increase in the gross collection of personal income taxes despite the mid-year reduction in tax rates. He said higher collection of the Value Added Tax, import duties, the new fuel tax, room rate levy and the direct tourism product levy, all boosted indirect taxes. “However, excises were relatively flat during the period. Additionally, higher non-tax revenues contributed to the revenue intake as the foreign exchange fee benefited from the increased availability of foreign exchange,” he added. In relation to economic growth prospects, Haynes said the forecast, which was a lot higher than the IMF’s meagre projection of 0.6 per cent growth, was based on an expected recovery in private investment and continued growth in tourism. “I think the fundamental issue comes back to the investment. I am optimistic that we will get some of these investments started,” he said. “If I could say to you that a number of projects were going to start tomorrow for example, I might be willing to raise my forecast above what we already have. So timing is going to be very critical in our ability to generate the growth,” said Haynes, adding that the start date of the highly anticipated construction projects will depend heavily on improvements in the doing business climate. Though building on the gains of 2018, the economy is estimated to have declined by 0.1 per cent during last year. The international reserves increased by some $481 million to reach $1.13 billion at the end of December, or approximately 18 weeks of import cover. The tourism sector recorded moderate growth of close to three per cent, the fifth consecutive year of growth. On the flip side, construction was estimated to have contracted by 4.7 per cent during the year under review, which officials have linked to the continued delay in a number of tourism-related projects. “Activity related to smaller projects and other medium-scale commercial ventures lessened the decline,” said Haynes. Meanwhile, conditions in the financial services sector remained stable and the manufacturing and non-sugar agriculture sectors recorded declines. The Governor said critical to the overall performance of the economy this year will be increased productivity, expansion of the alternative energy sector, improvement in the doing business environment, structural reforms to improve competitiveness indicators, and increased diversification. “(The year) 2020 provides us with an opportunity for this economy to take off. The last 18 months have focused on stabilization and during that period we have rebuilt the international reserve buffers, we have strengthened the public finances, we have implemented major tax and expenditure reforms, we have reduced the debt burden. “Now we need the economy to grow. This requires ongoing fiscal discipline, complemented by new investment that builds out our economic capacity for the future,” added Haynes. (BT)

DON’T RELY ON FOREIGN AID TO BOUNCE BACK FROM DISASTERS – Barbados and other countries in the region were today cautioned by a development banker not to depend on foreign aid to help them get back on their feet from a natural disaster. Eduardo Cavallo, Principal Economist in the Research Department of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), urged authorities to pay more attention to preparation. “The evidence suggests that foreign aid is not large enough to help countries cover a significant portion of the damages caused by disaster,” Cavallo told officials attending an IDB hosted panel discussion at the Courtyard by Marriott on Monday. “An implication I take out of that is that countries would then be well served through alternative financing, ex-ante (forecast-based) financing tools, things such as reserve funds, contingency credit lines, regional risks pool or insurance or reinsurance contract,” he said. Cavallo was presenting portions of ongoing research while speaking on the topic The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters. He said that too often resilience building slowed down when Governments change because of a different policy direction. But he called on authorities to do all they could to make their countries less vulnerable. “You can’t avoid a storm or earthquake but you can have more resilient interests. “You can have homes that place people further away from more dangerous areas, you can have construction standards that are stronger, you can have insurance, for example, or you can promote some insurance where that is available,” Cavallo said. But stating that the size of the country, geographic location and gross domestic product also played a factor in how badly a country would be affected, Cavallo argued that the poor stood to suffer most from natural disasters. The IDB economist said the time had come for the region to improve its zoning and invest in the improvement of their sewerage and drainage systems. He also insisted that there was a need for a catastrophic insurance market to be developed in Barbados and the rest of the Caribbean. Cavallo said: “This is an area where we really need to work on. The second thing countries can do to be better prepared is working on adaptation. “The role of infrastructure is very critical. We have very poor quality infrastructure in our region. “We are among the worst in the world in terms of the quality of our infrastructure. “We are comparable to sub-Saharan Africa than to any of the emerging or developing regions of the world. “There is one issue that I think is a big opportunity for Barbados and that is building up ex-ante financial mechanisms to strengthen the fiscal position.” Cavallo warned that Barbados was not exempt from the increasing trend in hurricanes in the Caribbean basin, pointing out that “the Caribbean region is expected to experience something between 0.2 and 0.6 degrees Celsius increase in temperatures per decade if the issue of climate change is not addressed”. (BT)

UWI STUDENTS STILL FACING FINANCIAL CHALLENGES – Despite no longer having to pay tuition, many Barbadian students at the University of the West Indies at Cave Hill still face challenges in meeting their day to day expenses, according to Deputy Principal, Professor Winston Moore. And the hardships extend to several Caribbean students, especially those whose countries were affected by a series of devastating hurricanes over the last two years, he added. Professor Moore revealed: “While the Government’s decision to reinstate payment of tuition fees was indeed a great relief, many of the financial aid avenues on campus are still heavily taxed. “Many of our students are part-time workers, with different needs, and even though the tuition fees were covered, they still had to buy books, food and pay for transportation. “We also have non-national students whose families would have made tremendous sacrifices to get them here, and then suffered losses from the hurricanes over the last two years.” Moore’s comments came as he addressed the launch of the 2020 edition of the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC)/UWI Race for the Kids 5K walk and run held at UWI’s Main Conference Room this morning. He expressed pleasure that the funds raised from the event go towards different funding mechanisms available to students. The deputy principal said: “We are happy to have the funds allocated to the Campus Scholarship Fund, where the bank will fund 16 scholarships, including two which will go towards Bahamian students in the wake of Hurricane Dorian, which decimated the northern islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama in 2019. “The funds will also be allocated to the Student Hardship Fund, and this is one of the heaviest used student assistance funds.” Professor Moore mentioned that before any funds are allocated to students, they receive interviews and counselling and the campus does a series of background checks. The proceeds from the fundraiser are also used for the First Year Experience programme, which, “is aimed at career, academic, personal and community development, and sees students getting involved in workshops, community outreach, and team building”, said Professor Moore. One of those students, Amoury Beckles, said when he began his studies at Cave Hill in 2018, he had no interest in taking part in any extra-curricular activities, but he changed his mind when a colleague invited him to the launching ceremony for the First Year Experience programme. Beckles said: “It was a case of love at first sight for me, so I signed up immediately. “As a mentee, I learned a lot. “The stress management component has been very helpful for me as it has given me the idea to do a stress management plan, which allows me to focus stress in the right direction. “The self-worth sessions were amazing, and now I have become a peer mentor, the time management component has come in very handy as I balance my various activities and responsibilities.” Managing Director of RBC Barbados, Robert Da Silva, said the race was part of the bank’s global efforts to assist young people. He said: “The bank believes education is a human right and the smartest investment for our country, communities and children. Everyone has a role to play in building a sustainable future for our children.” Last year’s event attracted some 2,200 participants and raised $125,000. Da Silva said he wanted to see the event attract at least 2,600 participants and raise $150,000 – an all-around 20 per cent increase. This year’s race will see a change in the route, as it will start at RBC’s Chelston Park offices and make its way along Belleville, Belmont Road, Constitution Road and St. Michael’s Row, Bridge Street, Wharf Road, Prince Alfred Street, Broad Street, Bridge Street, Probyn Street, Lower Bay Street, Jemmott’s Lane, Collymore Rock and back to Chelston Park. Barbados is one of 18 countries worldwide hosting the Race for the Kids, and the third one in the Caribbean, the others being Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas. (BT)

RSPCA WORRIED ABOUT OVERCROWDED ANIMALS – The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) is being bombarded with complaints of residents keeping too many dogs in small and uncomfortable spaces, RSPCA Chief Inspector Wayne Norville has said. He made the disclosure as he joined animal rights groups petitioning the Prime Minister to enforce the current law against animal cruelty. They are also concerned about a rampant dog population and animals prized more for breeding than companionship in Barbados. He advised dog owners that though kennel size has not yet been mandated by law, a kennel should be twice the length and height of the dog to ensure the animal’s comfort. Norville said: “You must remember that the dog is covered in hair so it is a lot hotter than we are. And if the roof of the kennel is made out of galvanize, that then causes even more heat. “So just imagine you in a fur coat in a kennel with galvanize or just metal around it. “It is not only terrifying for the animal, it is painful and it causes the animal then to react negatively, and when it does, neighbours complain and this is something that I get regularly.” The Chief Inspector was speaking to reporters at Browne’s Beach Car Park today where animal welfare groups Action for Animals Barbados (AFAB) and Respect Our Animals Rights (ROAR) assembled before heading to the Prime Minister’s Office on Bay Street to hand over a petition with over 16,000 signatures, requesting better enforcement of the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act. Norville said he has also received calls from landlords who complained that they have lost tenants as dogs living in uncomfortable kennels constantly whine, bark and disturb the peace in the neighbourhood. The Chief Inspector also advised dog owners that the law states that they were only allowed to keep four dogs without having a kennel licence. Norville told reporters: “My other problem that I am facing regularly too is people get a puppy and all they are interested in is breeding it. “They are not interested in the fact that when they breed that puppy, if it has ten pups, if five of them are females, all of them at some point in time come in season, too. “And you don’t ever get rid of all the pups. “So it means you have unwanted dogs roaming the streets, pulling the garbage out and causing havoc. “We really need to get these laws enforced other than that we could have an opportunity where there are a number of diseases and stuff like that that people can pick up from dogs like leptospirosis and we need to have better control of the population of dogs in Barbados.” The Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act is failing animals by not being enforced satisfactorily, said AFAB’s President Gail Hunte. She said the petition, entitled Help Protect Animals in Barbados, requested that the law be enforced in its entirety with immediate effect. Hunte also urged relevant authorities to establish a Standard Operating Procedure that would allow the public to investigate animal cruelty and take immediate action as deemed necessary. The petition reads in part: “It is time to take action for animals in Barbados. Every living creature deserves to have its basic needs met-adequate food, water and shelter. “Every animal deserve a life protected from inhumane treatment and suffering. “Now it is our time to stand together, advocate for animals and make our voices heard. “Animal cruelty and neglect often goes unnoticed and when reported there is no end in sight to their suffering because of failure by authorities to act. “Animals can feel pain and fear, joy and love, just like human beings, but they do not have a voice, let us be that voice.” (BT)

GARBAGE SEPARATION NECESSARY – Minister of the Environment, Trevor Prescod should not be “patting himself on the back” over the purchase and eventual delivery of new garbage trucks, according to the Democratic Labour Party’s (DLP) spokesperson on the environment Andre Worrell. During the party’s Sunday night meeting entitled A cry of the people, Worrell declared that Government must now explore alternative methods of managing the country’s waste by creating a policy for the separation of garbage at the household level. Worrell complained that while previous efforts at constructing a waste to energy plant appeared to have wasted away, the Mangrove Landfill at Vaucluse, St Thomas continues to face tremendous pressure. “So Trevor, stop patting yourself on the back because you really need to get out there and start speaking to the larger issues with regard to the environment in Barbados, garbage collection and waste disposal. “It is unfortunate that we have thousands and thousands of tons of garbage in Barbados on a monthly and daily basis. It is way too much and we really need to reach a point in Barbados where we start separating the garbage at source so that we make it easier to find room for disposal. We still have not opened the one at Greenland and we still don’t have a waste to energy plant to date,” Worrell said. He however gave the assurance that the DLP has solutions to the problems, which they are eager to share. He warned that environmental issues ought not to be politicised. As part of the effort, the DLP spokesperson suggested Government provide incentives for Barbadians who separate their garbage instead of suggesting punitive measures. “If you take out all of the tins fork and mayonnaise and all the organic waste and put it one side, knowing that there is a refund policy in place where you could return those items to a bulk collection area and you receive some sort of refund, I am certain that many children in Barbados would do it as a way of earning pocket change and many households would do it to make ends meet. You can separate the metals, you can separate the glass, and then when it comes to organic waste, you can think about composting,” suggested the spokesperson on environmental matters. He predicted that once the right technologies are in place, employment opportunities would increase significantly as Barbados taps into the multibillion dollar global “garbage industry”. Worrell, who last year called for the heads of Trevor Prescod and Sanitation Service Authority Chairman Rudy Grant, also credited DLP members for pressuring Government into fulfilling its promise to replenish the fleet of garbage trucks, which arrived in late December. “Had it not been for the voice of the Democratic Labour Party placing pressure on Prescod and the chairman of the SSA, we would still be looking for those trucks. We would still be hearing that the trucks are on the water. “We would still be hearing that the trucks are on the way, that they are on order and are expected to be in Barbados over the next two or three months. But the Democratic Labour Party assembled a voice and pressured the Government,” Worrell declared. (BT)

VIRUS COULD HURT ECONOMY – As fears mount and countries begin to cut flights to China due to the quickly spreading Coronavirus, Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes says that institution is keeping a close eye on the developments. Warning that the spread of the deadly virus could have a major impact on the island’s bread and butter tourism industry, Haynes told reporters on Wednesday that he was hoping for it to be quickly contained. The virus, which was first detected in Wuhan City, China, has already spread to other countries, with about 68 cases being confirmed outside of China. The death toll has so far risen to over 130 in China with more than 6,170 cases confirmed up to Wednesday afternoon. Responding to questions during his first economic review of the Barbados economy for this year, Haynes expressed concern that the Barbados economy was vulnerable. “Because we are a small open economy we are exposed to several risks, not least of which are health pandemics such as the Coronavirus. Therefore, it is something we have to monitor,” said Haynes. “At this stage it is difficult for us to gauge what the full impact could be, but from our perspective we hope that it can be contained because there is that risk that if it spreads it can hurt global tourism,” he said. A number of major airlines including British Airways and United Airlines have announced cancellation of flights to China, as several major international firms halt travel to the Asian country due to the coronavirus outbreak. “Clearly if it spreads its net widely then all markets or several markets can be impacted, not least our own. And not necessarily because we have it but these types of things create fear and concern and therefore, sometimes people prefer to stay in an environment which they know rather than one that they do not know. So that is a concern to us. We have to monitor it and hopefully we are able to contain this virus as quickly as possible,” said Haynes. The infection has so far been confirmed in the US, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Cambodia, Singapore, France, Vietnam, Taiwan and Sri Lanka. This afternoon the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it would be reconvening its emergency committee on Thursday to determine if the outbreak of the virus amounts to a public health emergency of international concern. Local health officials have already given the assurance that the island had the necessary equipment and expertise to deal with any eventuality, adding that they were keeping abreast with the developments internationally. The Governor reminded journalists that in addition to health risks, the struggling Barbados economy remained vulnerable to other external shocks including rises in oil prices, geopolitical tensions, the UK’s exit from the European Union and a slowdown in global economic activities, matters that should not be ignored. “So there are a number of things, which individually and collectively, could have an adverse impact on your prospects,” said Haynes, while adding that the country should position itself to “take advantage” of upside risks when they present themselves. He also expressed concern that the local crime situation had the potential to derail any gains being realized in the economy, which is currently in a strict International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. “It goes without saying that high crime levels can be a deterrent both for locals and for tourists. Let us hope that last year was an aberration, that does not repeat itself,” said Haynes. Adding that crime and violence could be contributing to a number of factors including a weak economy, the top economic advisor said he believed some of what happened was associated with “a drug culture”. “It is something we have to address. Some crime is associated with our inability to solve disputes. That is something we have to be able to work on from very young . . . So we have to approach it on every level,” he added. Last year Barbados recorded 49 murders. So far this year there have been two. (BT)

FARLEY AND BROOMES DENY MURDER CHARGE – Matthew Anderson Farley and Jefferson Tramaine Diego Broomes went on trial in the High Court today accused of murdering 38-year-old Cosmo Alonza Hinds over six years ago. Farley alias Smiles, who was recorded as having no fixed place of abode, and Broomes of Hannays and Glendelough, Josey Hill, St Lucy are charged with committing the offence on September 26, 2013. The two accused, both in their late 20s, were arraigned on the capital matter in the No. 3 Supreme Court before Justice Carlisle Greaves this morning and pleaded not guilty. A12-member jury was selected to hear evidence from 25 Crown witnesses. However the case started with arguments being made in the absence of the jurors. Crown Counsel Neville Watson is prosecuting the case. Attorney-at-law Verla DePezia is representing Farley while Queen’s Counsel Andrew Pilgrim and Sian Lange are Broomes’ defense counsel. (BT)

STRANGE RELATIONSHIP ENDS IN CUTLASS ATTACK – After getting “cruel” and “vicious” when a man who fathered children with his girlfriend threatened to “wring a knife” in him, Anderson Leroy Haynes took up a “sword with a rusty blade” and “chop” him on his hand. The incident happened on August 31, 2007 at Clevedale, Black Rock, St Michael. Today in the No. 4 Supreme Court Haynes, of Wavell Avenue, Black Rock, said: “I sorry for what happened between me and Mr Joseph.” He issued the apology after he told Madam Justice Laurie-Ann Smith-Bovell he was not guilty of unlawfully causing serious bodily harm to Francis Joseph with intent to maim, disfigure or disable him but was guilty of unlawfully and maliciously inflicting serious bodily harm on him. His brief address came moments after Principal Crown Counsel Alliston Seale told the court what happened that Friday. Haynes and Joseph, the prosecutor said, lived within walking distance of each other. However, they were in a rather “strange relationship”. Both men were at one time involved in a relationship with the same woman; both had children from the same woman. Even more strange, it appears that when the relationship broke down between the accused and the lady she would find her way to the complainant’s house and they would rekindle the relationship. But when the relationship soured the lady would find herself back at the accused’s house and rekindle that relationship. “Obviously this is a recipe for disaster,” the prosecutor said adding that the day before the incident the children were at Joseph’s house. “Sometimes both his children and the accused’s children would come to his residence and vice versa.” Joseph sent his daughter over to the accused’s house asking the lady to come and collect one of the children who was restless and crying. The lady’s response caused him to visit the house and an argument ensued followed by “a small fracas”. He subsequently left the location without settling the issue about the child. The prosecutor further related that the following morning Joseph took the children over to Haynes’ residence. While standing in the roadway he spoke to Haynes who was standing on his steps and “this seemed to set him off”. He said, Haynes went into the house, returned with a cutlass and attacked Joseph, slashing him on his arm injuring him. Joseph ran away, called the police and was taken to Queen Elizabeth Hospital where he was treated for a deep laceration and fracture which were deemed not threatening to life or limb. Police investigations took them to Haynes’ work place. “I know wunna dey coming from me,” he told police at the time when told of the probe. “He come down here by me saying he gone wring a knife in me. He get me hot and I take up the collins and chop he with it.” Stating that he had “nothing to hide” he dictated a statement to police in which he said: “Last night about 12 o’clock me and my girl was in the bed lying down when I hear a knocking on my door . I tell her that it sound like her little girl knocking. She get up and open the door and the lil girl tell she that her father send she to see if she all right. [She] tell she to go back home and she leave. “I got de door open now and I see he marching coming down . . . The [girlfriend] was at the door asking he what he want . . . he pull a knife out of he waist telling me that he would wring de knife in me. I get angry and tek up my collins and follow he . . . he take up a rock and pelt it at me. I stop and went back home, I call the police. Francis come back . . . and pelt de rock at me and tell me if I know who he is, that he is a psycho. “This morning . . . I was there putting on my clothes, when I hear he outside keeping a lot of noise that he would choke me. I get cruel now and take up a sword from by the door and went outside for he. I get vicious with he and I chop at he with de collins. He get chop on he hand.” But today Haynes, who has six prior convictions, two of them for wounding, apologised for his actions and told the judge in the presence of his lawyer Shadia Simpson: “After that me and Mr Joseph become back good friends. This . . . going on 13 years and me and he ‘gree back for 13 years.”NThe convicted man, who is in his 50s, returns before the court on March 13 when a pre-sentencing report will be presented. He remains on bail. (BT)

MURDER ACCUSED REMANDED – Three St Michael men were today remanded to HMP Dodds charged with the murder of Jason Hobbs. They are Jamar Carlieous Browne, 25, of Mottley Land, Bank Hall; Zecco Chabarry Pilgrim, 26, of Marshall Gap, Tudor Bridge, and Juneil Shaquel Holder, 24, of Hinds Gap, Halls Road. When the accused appeared at the District ‘C’ Magistrates’ Court before Magistrate Deidre McKenna, they were not required to plead to the indictable offence. They will reappear in court on February 25. Police say Hobbs was murdered between January 14 and 17. Police had recovered his partially decomposed body at the bottom of a cliff in an area known as Elbow Bay, My Lady Hole, St Philip. (BT)

BLOCKING OF BEACHES WILL NOT BE TOLERATED – Barbadian beaches will remain open to residents and the blocking of them won’t be allowed, says Minister of Maritime Affairs Kirk Humphrey. Yesterday he lashed out at those who attempted to block Barbadians from their tradition of open access to the sea shores. “It must be made clear that any beach associated with the island remains the property of Barbadians. There ain’t [no] private beaches in the plan, period, period. So even as we talk about building out, this is important. People are coming to me as Minister of Maritime Affairs lamenting about the state of the beaches,” he told the House of Assembly during debating a resolution to compulsorily acquire lands at Harrismith, St Philip, for housing and tourism development. He cited one complaint from a woman using the beach along the stretch that included Carlisle Bay, St Michael, who said she could not run straight along the shore. “Because people have now come to the understanding or the misunderstanding that they own to the high-water mark and the high-water mark means everything. Therefore you cannot now run on the beach . . . you could hardly pass. “It has to stop. It has to stop . . . .The NCC [National Conservation Commission] has regulations that you have to apply and get permission whether you think you own the space or not. People can’t even access the beach; people can’t get into the water. It does not make sense,” he stated. Recently beach users renewed an old complaint about being chased from the area of Browne’s Beach, St Michael, while others were upset about not being able to access Sandy Lane Beach in St James. (DN)

There are 336 days left in the year Shalom! Follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Instagram for your daily news. #thechasefiles #dailynewscaps #bajannewscaps #newsinanutshell

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freelancesumandas · 6 years ago

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Divorce and your personal finances: How to prevent a split from your spouse being a spilt from your financial peace of mind

Kingwood Divorce Attorney: Divorce is complex. There are deeply personal components to divorce which make the process heart wrenching. You are separating, legally and figuratively, from your life partner and the stability which marriage can instill in our lives. All of the equity that you have built up in that relationship with that person is going to be destroyed in a matter of months. The toughest part is that one of you is asking the State of Texas to make it so.

Learning is the most important thing you can do for yourself before a divorce

I imagine that some attorneys would tell you that the best thing to do when you find yourself in a vulnerable position is to go on the offensive and fight back. To some degree this is true, but not before you take the necessary steps to learn as much as you can about divorce in Texas and the implications of all of the circumstances of your particular case on the processes and laws surrounding divorce in our state.

Where will my/their/our property end up at the conclusion of the divorce?

Family Law Lawyer Houston: Maybe the most frequently asked question when it comes to the personal finances of potential clients of the Law Office of Bryan Fagan, PLLC is where will the person’s property end up once the divorce is all said and done. Will they be able to keep their retirement account? Will it be divided? What about the retirement savings of their spouse? How will that be divided (if at all)? These are all valid questions to ask, of course. You want to know the ending to the story and eliminate any fears or concerns about how to get to that end point.

Unfortunately I cannot tell you (nor can any attorney, for that matter) exactly how your divorce is going to end up. There are just too many circumstances and factors that will weigh on your divorce that nobody can predict with 100% accuracy. With that said, we can provide you with some additional information that can help guide you in the right direction.For instance, if your divorce will be uncontested your property and that of your spouse may be able to be divided up by the two of you with no intervention from the court. This means that there can be no outstanding issues when it comes to property division. Questions about how to classify property as wither community property or separate property needs to have been answered by this stage. If you and your spouse have children you can have disputes as to the kids and end up in a trial, but if you have settled all issues related to property then much of the financial

planning in your case is done on an uncontested

However, if you and your spouse cannot come to an agreement on how to divide your property then a court may have to insert itself into your situation in order to solve the dispute. Let’s break down how property is classified in Texas and the effects of this on your divorce case.

Just and Right division of marital property

Create a checklist to determine what is relevant in your life

More information on the financial components of divorce to be posted tomorrow

Houston Family Law Lawyers: If you have any immediate questions about how personal finances impact divorce cases please contact the Law Office of Bryan Fagan, PLLC. We offer free of charge consultations six days a week with a licensed family law provider.

#divorce #Divorce Attorney #divorce lawyer #family #Family Law #Family Law Attorney #fagan #attorney #attorneys #attorney lawyer #law #lawyer #Houston #houston texas #Houston law #Houston lawyers #Houston family law #texas lawyer #Texas

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wot-tidbits · 8 years ago

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In defense of Tuon’s character

by TheIconoclasticFury

That she's proud there can be no doubt. Not unlike Elayne, Tuon's a former heir apparent and now rightful Empress of arguably the strongest nation in the world (pre-Semirhage anyway). She's also exceptionally competent in her own right, not only as a leader but in personal pursuits like training damane (the morality of that aside for the moment). She's proud, but there are good reasons for her pride and she still isn't as bad with it as some of the others.

……… Tuon seems perfectly willing to wait to get what she wants when she sees the need or reason to wait and she also seems willing to consider things that differ from her previous world-view. She disregarded Mat's tales of Trollocs and the Eelfinn/Aelfinn, but then, those things are completely fantastical to most people, especially someone from a continent that hasn't seen a Trolloc for 2,000 years. Her only evidence that such things existed was Mat's personal testimony, as I recall, and while she certainly trusts him a great deal as time goes on, that's hardly reason to take everything he says at face value. She's shown a remarkable willingness to converse about the system of damane and the morality of it at length with Setalle Anan and others and her defense of the institution, when we see it, is rational and clearly has some thought behind it. She isn't just saying "Yeah, damane are okay because I say so and that's just the way it is." She clearly has moral and practical reasons behind her position, and if she isn't willing to completely abandon her stance on an institution that is clearly a cornerstone of Seanchan society, and has been for 1,000 years, who can blame her? Even if one accepts that the institution has no redeeming qualities, abandoning it should be something that is thoroughly thought out over a longer period of time, not done on a whim. That'd be highly irresponsible as a leader.

Is she demanding and does she want things to go her way? Of course. Everyone wants things to go their way and given her position she does expect certain things to go her way simply because of that position. But she's not a child and she doesn't want things her way NOW! necessarily. She's shown a dedication to long plans when necessary, especially with Mat. She thinks things out, like the institution of slavery in Seanchan, like the attack on the White Tower, and like the Seanchan's political position relative to Rand and the rest of the Westlands.

Tuon hasn't made moves to fundamentally change Seanchan society as of yet. But then, I would argue no responsible leader would. Not yet anyway.

Let's sweep past the fact that the institution of damane is 1,000 years old and that there are real and good historical, practical, reasons behind its implementation. Tuon isn't Empress until the end of KoD, and then she has 3 books left before the series concludes. She has less than that before Tarmon Gai'don breaks out in all its fury and Seanchan needs to be ready for that Battle. I am not sure of the exact timeline for tGS/ToM/AMoL, but it can't possibly be more than a few months. The prohibition of slavery in reality in the West was generally an on-going process that took decades and a changing economic and political climate to resolve. Tuon has a few months (tops), isn't facing the economic changes of the Industrial Revolution to help her along by disincentivizing slavery, isn't faced with the philosophical changes the West was having in the late 18th Century, and has to be ready for Tarmon Gai'don in that same few months.

When, then, does she have the time to uproot Seanchan society before the books conclude? …………………she can hardly do whatever she pleases. Galgan exists and while I wouldn't go so far as to say he is disloyal, Tuon abolishing slavery suddenly is hardly guaranteed to meet with his support. Especially since it would gut the Seanchan military capabilities with regards to channeling on the eve of Tarmon Gai'don, an act that is hardly sound strategy. The rest of the Seanchan would be shocked and dismayed, and quite probably overtly rebellious. The damane alone would take months to get reconcile with their new circumstances, as we've seen with other freed damane and be in no good shape to do much in the meantime. Not to mention what a wreck the sul'dam would be, going around and insisting they be collared as they are liable to do.

But this all assumes certain things, like that the institution should be abolished. I am not certain Tuon is yet convinced that it should be. And she has good reasons why she is not yet convinced. Like I mentioned earlier, the institution is 1,000 years old and hard to disavow suddenly. There's an entire culture built up around the degradation of channelers that has to be worked with. Tuon's too smart and careful of a leader to suddenly throw 1,000 years of history and culture out the window in the span of a few months, but she is willing to talk about it so that if she is wrong, she would learn that. And if she is not, then those who are wrong would be educated. She's willing to discuss and defend her positions, not just take them on face value and hold them as inviolate. This isn't worthless, this is indicative of the leader of the Seanchan being willing to carefully consider her position on the institution of damane at length rather than simply holding that the institution can and should exist and no one can say otherwise. It's, frankly, the most that can reasonably be expected in the time-frame Tuon is given.

………

Tuon hasn't made any sweeping changes to Seanchan society, but I would argue she has not had the time, conditions, or opportunity to do so responsibly. Nor is she so wanton to have decided that all of Seanchan needs to be uprooted, culturally and institutionally speaking, without thinking it over and talking it over for more than a few months. She is, however, willing to discuss and consider her positions carefully.

I think the best time for Tuon to start making any changes, even gradual changes, would be after the Last Battle. The nobility will still have suffered deaths and be 'diluted' by incoming Blood from newly conquered parts of the Empire in the Westlands and Tuon's position will be more secure as well, even if the nobles have more of their feet under them. As it is, Galgan, for a singular example, seems plenty competent and secure enough in his position to seemingly plot against Suroth for control over the Corenne and Tuon recognizes his potential as a threat a well. He'd make an excellent focal point for any opposition to Tuon's policies, even before the conclusion of the Last Battle. While the general populace want stability more than anything else, changes to the institution of slavery a practiced by the Seanchan, da'covale and damane alike, are probably going to be regarded as destabilizing, if anything. Especially changes to the system of damane. And while the Westland nations that have been conquered are likely going to be more than okay with any steps towards mitigating slavery (not having a history of such themselves) they do pose something of a revolt risk still. Not all are happy to be living under the Ravens (though the Seanchan policies regarding new territories and the security they've offered have done wonders in this regard); Taraboners fought under Ituralde for a time and Beslan has contemplated rebellion in the near past in Altara. Internecine conflict among the high ranks of the Seanchan could open up an opportunity for such factions, it at least has to be considered.

Ultimately, we may just disagree about the strategic implications of the timing. This is a point that is hard to be certain on, because it's not like we can fact-check.

………………..Tuon is still a supporter of the institution. She's willing to discuss it and hear other people out and respect their opinions on the matter, but she does disagree with the idea that damane should run free or be unleashed, I think. Certainly, I think her concerns running up to Tarmon Gai'don were not the betterment of damane in Seanchan, but consolidating her own position, preparing for Tarmon Gai'don, and advancing Seanchan political and military interests in the Westlands. Her treatment of Elaida aside, she authorized a raid on the White Tower with the explicit objective of collaring Aes Sedai. Were she opposed to collaring damane, she would not have done this.

I do think she is gradually changing her opinions on the matter, and will continue to do so in the near future. I'm not saying that necessarily means she'll abandon the concept of damane, but Aviendha's vision does at least imply that she may become increasingly amenable to the proposition in the years to come. In that future we saw her being well respected by the Aiel and possibly coming to an agreement to free Aiel damane before she was succeeded (for reasons unknown). And she did offer to let marath'damane leave her lands, which does show she's willing to make compromises on the matter in certain circumstances, more than might be expected from other Seanchan nobility. Unfortunately, we barely see anything of anyone after the Last Battle, visions of a future that can never be aside, so it's hard to say for certain how her opinions will develop and whether that will lead to abolitionist tendencies later.

………………

We get a little less than a page or so with Mat and Tuon after Tarmon Gai'don, and it's mostly just Aludra throwing up fireworks and Tuon stating that she's pregnant, as confirmed by Min. Not...a lot to go on regarding her future domestic policies, heh. I think in the long-term, between her own abilities and Mat, Min, and Karede at the least, she'll be able to do quite a lot, if she wishes. But she does have to be careful and do things properly to avoid massive societal unrest and instability and possible rebellion.

#Wheel of Time #SPOILER #Tuon #seanchan #Towers of Midnight #a memory of light #analysis

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krisiunicornio · 5 years ago

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Unionize Yoga—the first-ever yoga teachers’ union—reaches a negotiation with major studio chain YogaWorks.

This story is part of a series covering the future of yoga during and after the coronavirus pandemic. Here, we take a look at the progress the yoga unionization effort has made. Read more about the the specific challenges facing the industry in our second story: The Future of Yoga: The Change We Need.

For yoga teachers around the world, their worst case career scenario arrived mid-March, when the coronavirus pandemic forced the closure of yoga studios and limited in-person contact for an indefinite period of time. As more than 40 million Americans file for unemployment, many of whom lack health insurance or paid sick leave, there has never been a more pressing time than the present to consider the possibilities associated with a yoga teachers’ union.

It’s not a new thought. In fact, it’s an initiative that started with a small group of YogaWorks teachers in New York back in February 2019. These teachers formed Unionize Yoga, the first-ever yoga teachers’ union to become certified by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

What began a series of internal discussions among YogaWorks NY teachers about what job security, health insurance, and equity could look like for their profession, reverberated throughout the company. The more conversations that took place, the more teachers realized that many of their individual frustrations were aligned around the same issues.

Then, just prior to Memorial Day, Unionize Yoga negotiations with YogaWorks concluded. An internal email from the Unionize Yoga Bargaining Committee to YogaWorks NY teachers obtained by Yoga Journal disclosed the details of a severance package for members of the YogaWorks Bargaining Unit. That unit, according to the email, includes any YogaWorks NY teacher who had worked two hours or more in the four months prior to the closure of the NY studios—which shuttered in mid-April due to financial challenges.

See also After Years of Financial Struggles, YogaWorks to Permanently Close in New York

The severance package offered paid health care benefits to employees who were enrolled in the company’s health care plan (again, any employee who worked at least 10 hours per week, which excludes many teachers) for three months following the closure date. Employees would also be guaranteed preference in hiring over non-YogaWorks employees at other YogaWorks’ locations should a New York employee relocate to another market.

It is a small step, but one with implications for how yoga teachers can organize moving forward, especially in a new era of online teaching and potential studio closures.

Equity, Diversity, and Job Security

The issues at Unionize Yoga’s bargaining table were not specific to problems at YogaWorks NY—they were industry-wide, the union says. These problems include a lack of equity (a teacher with over 15 years at the same company making, say, $40 a class, while a brand new teacher with very little experience could make twice that depending on who shows up); a lack of diversity (studios that continue to hire and favor white, young, thin, able-bodied teachers instead of prioritizing different body types, ethnicities, cultures, ages, and identities); a lack of sustainability (the majority of teachers have alternative sources of income that supplement their teaching, or may have financial assistance from a partner or their family, and in some cases, even inherited wealth); and a lack of job security (many teachers may work for very low wages without health insurance and lack financial stability). The union has also recognized the many teachers who don’t have other sources of income at their disposal live under the poverty line and receive public assistance such as subsidized housing, food stamps, and more.

A fair wage for yoga teachers, according to the union, is one that would increase over time with experience, and considers other factors such as the rising costs of living. YogaWorks teachers have pointed out that the pay structure is all over the map with different teachers at different pay rates. Unionize Yoga has argued for a set and transparent pay structure so that all teachers are aware of where they stand and know where they’re headed as they progress in their careers.

One of the biggest elephants in the room, however, is the perpetuation of existing privilege, the union says. If the yoga industry is defined by those who get to participate in it, Unionize Yoga indicates that by continuing to exclude marginalized communities, we’re defining what the industry looks like based on pre-existing biases. “It’s hard to see the big picture until you’ve worked in the industry for several years and see these patterns repeat,” wrote David DiMaria, a representative for the Machinists’ Union, in an email.

Of course, this perpetuation of privilege is a byproduct of capitalism and systemic racism in general and is not unique to yoga. But aren’t yogis supposed to be leaders and changemakers?

More teachers of color are featured in magazines, emerging on social media platforms, teaching in studios, and giving their communities a voice. Rising star Lauren Ash of Black Girl in Om has been carving out a safe space in wellness for people of color since 2014, while yoga teacher, body positivity advocate, and Instagram megastar Jessamyn Stanley has been outspoken about how yoga is marketed toward “thin, white, affluent people.” Still, a 2017 National Health Interview survey found that more non-Hispanic white people practice yoga and meditation than non-Hispancic black people; 17.1% compared with 9.3%. While the industry may be starting to move the needle toward more diversity and inclusivity, we still have a ways to go.

See also What It's Like to Be a Black Yoga Teacher

Yoga Alliance, the biggest nationwide professional organization for teachers that exists within the yoga industry, provides guidelines for studios and parameters for teacher qualifications and aims to promote integrity and diversity in the industry. In late February, 2020, Yoga Alliance up-leveled its standards and launched a new ethical commitment code of conduct as an effort to address inequities and lack of diversity in the industry.

But, according to Unionize Yoga, only a teachers’ union and the federally protected rights that come with it could actually protect teachers, since unions have the right to negotiate legally binding contracts with employers. Unionize Yoga says that a universal teachers’ union would prioritize the greater good of the group over the self-serving interests of the individual.

The nature of the studio business model in general is to create a comparison culture among teaching staff, with pay structures often set up to encourage competition. In short, teachers are often rewarded financially based on the number of students in the room.

As a teacher myself, I have observed that the paid-per-head industry standard can force teachers to become salespeople, responsible for recruiting and retaining students in order to raise—or sustain—their salaries. Just as a freelancer or entrepreneur is not paid for the time spent marketing their business, a yoga teacher is not compensated for the “invisible hours” spent promoting their classes, let alone preparing for them. This could help explain why so many teachers find themselves vying for the spotlight. This notion of hustling and jockeying is rarely, if ever, discussed in teacher trainings.

If the yoga industry in the West has indeed perpetuated a culture of homogeneity that spawned separateness and competition among teachers, it’s possible that an industry-wide collective with the standards across the board could serve as a healing salve.

“From the start, our vision was to reimagine the yoga industry and to come together to ensure the sustainability of our profession through fair and equitable pay, transparent and truthful communication, and a clear path for growth, job security, and benefits,” says Tamar Samir, a yoga teacher and co-organizer for Unionize Yoga.

While some are saying that the pandemic has forced a long overdue shift in the yoga industry, without brick-and-mortar studios relying on teacher trainings to survive—many have already begun to shutter their doors permanently. And we’re still faced with the same problem of too many teachers and not enough students. A teachers’ union could promote workers’ rights, seniority, equity, and diversity for a more promising industry and a brighter future.

See also To Pay or Not to Pay for Yoga During the Coronavirus Shutdown

Marketing material for the Unionize Yoga campaign.

The Timeline of Unionization Efforts at YogaWorks

Within a few weeks of the early discussions at YogaWorks NY, what began as off-the-record talks among colleagues led to meetings with management, and eventually, the decision to officially organize and form a union. By the spring of 2019, the group was 80 members strong and dubbed themselves the ‘Teachers’ Initiative.’ They had reached out to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAMAW), which specializes in the gig economy, under the recommendation of CorePower Yoga teacher Effie Morgenstern, who, at the time, was attempting to form a union herself (though CorePower employees filed a series of labor lawsuits against the company instead).

By the summer, teachers at all four remaining YogaWorks NY locations at the time began signing union cards in favor of the union, despite that Heather Eary, a regional vice president for YogaWorks, sent an email encouraging employees not to. Once teachers had reached their goal of obtaining 80 percent of employees’ signatures, they filed with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). On September 9, 2019, with support from the IAMAW, the Teachers’ Initiative took their campaign public as Unionize Yoga and sent a formal request to YogaWorks asking the company to recognize their union. That request was initially denied. Then on October 17, and again on November 14, all YogaWorks NY teachers were given the opportunity to vote either for or against the union, to which an overwhelming majority voted in favor. Following that victory, YogaWorks teachers were certified as a union by the NLRB in New York.

Fast-forward to March 2020: A bargaining committee of YogaWorks NY teachers and reps from IAMAW were in the throes of their second round of negotiations with the company.

Unionize Yoga had moved mountains; its efforts echoed across the industry and beyond—even Senator Bernie Sanders has Tweeted about it—and teachers around the country were inspired by their efforts and began to mobilize in pursuit of higher standards themselves. Many teachers have reached out to the union for advice as to how they might start one of their own. What had once seemed inconceivable for the yoga industry had become a reality.

But then COVID-19 changed everything. In mid-March, shelter-in-place restrictions put a pause on bargaining efforts between Unionize Yoga and YogaWorks. In an internal email that was sent by Heather Eary on March 16 and obtained by Yoga Journal, YogaWorks teachers and staff were notified of a temporary two-week closure that would go into effect the following day. The email stated that teachers could use any accrued pay from their sick leave bank, and that any staff member who wished to donate their accrued leave to a “Leave Bank” had the option to do so for those who had run out of leave pay. It was available on a first come, first serve basis until the bank was empty, with a maximum of five hours per employee (a noble effort, sure, but hardly enough to pay the bills).

See also Teaching Yoga in the Age of COVID-19

YogaWorks teachers, unlike most teachers at independent studios, are regular employees of the company, not independent contractors, which is why they’re eligible for perks like sick pay and which is also why they were able to legally form a union within the company. And though YogaWorks employees who work 10 classes per week (or equivalent) are considered full-time and eligible for benefits like health care, according to Unionize Yoga, no teacher at YogaWorks NY had worked that many hours. The number of hours worked, of course, does not include the countless ‘invisible hours’ (class prep, travel, training, etc.), involved in teaching a class

As studios everywhere closed, including all 66 YogaWorks locations across the country, the entire industry changed in the span of a week and shifted to online platforms. With the exception of its studios in New York, the U.S. epicenter of the novel coronavirus, YogaWorks began live streaming its classes, offering more than 1,000 per week. In a statement provided exclusively to Yoga Journal, YogaWorks said that despite considerable obstacles resulting from the impact of COVID-19, including the nationwide shutdown of studios and in hard impact areas like New York, that it would continue to promote “nationwide teacher-first policies that put teachers in the best position to succeed and grow in the long term.”

But the pandemic continued to wreak havoc on the economy, and, according to the teachers who were interviewed for this article, YogaWorks began furloughing some of its management in April. Sick leave banks dried up. YogaWorks’ out-of-work teachers on staff (at least in New York where no live stream classes were offered), were compensated with a $25 fee for each scheduled class they would have otherwise taught.

See also 7 Ways Yogis Can Practice Loving-Kindness in Response to COVID-19

Under normal circumstances, teachers’ regular pay rates at YogaWorks ranged anywhere from $35 to $125 per class—depending on somewhat ambiguous calculations of seniority, celebrity, and of course, how many students came to class. YogaWorks teachers have said that this broad range in pay is anything but logical or systematic. There’s also a bump system that offers a flat rate per additional head after a certain number of students, but it’s unclear whether that system is the same across the board. Despite that YogaWorks’ payscale is in some respects more generous and consistent than the pay-per-head standard at smaller studios, the lack of structure in the pay system and transparency around it becomes problematic, teachers say, creating competition instead of collaboration.

Eary’s email ended by reassuring employees that YogaWorks would come out “stronger than before.” But by mid-April, YogaWorks CEO Brian Cooper delivered the news that all four remaining New York locations would permanently close as of Sunday, April 19, citing years of financial difficulties in a competitive market. Cooper wrote that the New York region had been suffering losses even before the pandemic, despite efforts to improve studio performance. In the past two years, two YogaWorks’ New York locations had closed (Westside and SoHo). Now that the company had lost its lease on the Eastside, the region’s only profitable studio, according to Cooper, there was no viable path to reduce the company’s losses and “get the New York region to break-even.”

As the news rippled throughout the company and devastated New York teachers, Unionize Yoga was faced with a new challenge: How can they reach a contract with a region that has dissolved? As a NLRB certified union, however, their rights to bargain were not affected by the closure, and the union continued to negotiate compensation and other issues that stemmed from the shuttering of the New York studios.

“While our negotiations with this specific company may soon come to an end, teachers’ efforts to reshape their world is only just beginning,” a rep from Unionize Yoga had said.

The negotiations at the end of May provided a glimmer of hope for changing the industry at large. The severance package for YogaWorks NY teachers varies by employee and is based on their years of service, ranging from two to four weeks' pay. A YogaWorks teacher who preferred not to be identified said that the company would cap the severance pay at $2,500. (The company requires any employees who accept the severance package to sign a non-disclosure agreement to prevent them from suing the company or speaking out publicly about the company in a negative manner.)

Has the Unionization Effort Been Successful?

Was the deal a win for the union? The short answer: probably. Without it, YogaWorks NY teachers may not have received anything at all, says a former YogaWorks teacher who asked to remain anonymous. Unionize Yoga had spent more than a year spent organizing and tirelessly campaigning for their cause, thwarted by the sudden turn of events that led to the closures of YogaWorks’ remaining New York locations. As negotiations with the company concluded, the severance package marked marked a historic a victory for the union. Unionize Yoga representatives say they may be the first group of yoga teachers to receive a severance package following a layoff. “We are proud of our collaboration and accomplishments together and are thankful for everyone who has supported and encouraged thus far,” the union wrote in an Instagram post.

As Samir has said, the union’s larger efforts to reshape the yoga world are only just beginning. As news of Unionize Yoga’s formation spread across the U.S. and teachers elsewhere considered the power of mobilizing and forming collectives, the industry-wide camaraderie will continue. Beyond the borders of YogaWorks’ New York studios, the union’s collaboration with IAMAW, which has a reputation for non-traditional organizing in the gig economy, will also continue. New ideas for a post-pandemic world have already begun to take shape, from the possibility of a universal yoga teachers’ cooperative similar to an actors’ guild. “The solidarity, mutual support, and trust formed in this initiative cannot be dissolved,” Samir said. “It will simply shape shift into another form.”

#sleep sounds #sleep music #white noise app #nature sounds #relaxing sounds #rain sounds for sleeping

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cedarrrun · 5 years ago

Link

Unionize Yoga—the first-ever yoga teachers’ union—reaches a negotiation with major studio chain YogaWorks.

See also After Years of Financial Struggles, YogaWorks to Permanently Close in New York

It is a small step, but one with implications for how yoga teachers can organize moving forward, especially in a new era of online teaching and potential studio closures.

Equity, Diversity, and Job Security

Of course, this perpetuation of privilege is a byproduct of capitalism and systemic racism in general and is not unique to yoga. But aren’t yogis supposed to be leaders and changemakers?

See also What It's Like to Be a Black Yoga Teacher

See also To Pay or Not to Pay for Yoga During the Coronavirus Shutdown

Marketing material for the Unionize Yoga campaign.

The Timeline of Unionization Efforts at YogaWorks

Fast-forward to March 2020: A bargaining committee of YogaWorks NY teachers and reps from IAMAW were in the throes of their second round of negotiations with the company.

See also Teaching Yoga in the Age of COVID-19

See also 7 Ways Yogis Can Practice Loving-Kindness in Response to COVID-19

“While our negotiations with this specific company may soon come to an end, teachers’ efforts to reshape their world is only just beginning,” a rep from Unionize Yoga had said.

Has the Unionization Effort Been Successful?

#sleep sounds #sleep music #white noise app #nature sounds #relaxing sounds #rain sounds for sleeping

0 notes

amyddaniels · 5 years ago

Text

As COVID-19 Reveals the Cracks in the Yoga Industry, Could a Universal Teachers’ Union Help Reshape Our Community?

Unionize Yoga—the first-ever yoga teachers’ union—reaches a negotiation with major studio chain YogaWorks.

See also After Years of Financial Struggles, YogaWorks to Permanently Close in New York

It is a small step, but one with implications for how yoga teachers can organize moving forward, especially in a new era of online teaching and potential studio closures.

Equity, Diversity, and Job Security

Of course, this perpetuation of privilege is a byproduct of capitalism and systemic racism in general and is not unique to yoga. But aren’t yogis supposed to be leaders and changemakers?

See also What It's Like to Be a Black Yoga Teacher

See also To Pay or Not to Pay for Yoga During the Coronavirus Shutdown

Marketing material for the Unionize Yoga campaign.

The Timeline of Unionization Efforts at YogaWorks

Fast-forward to March 2020: A bargaining committee of YogaWorks NY teachers and reps from IAMAW were in the throes of their second round of negotiations with the company.

See also Teaching Yoga in the Age of COVID-19

See also 7 Ways Yogis Can Practice Loving-Kindness in Response to COVID-19

“While our negotiations with this specific company may soon come to an end, teachers’ efforts to reshape their world is only just beginning,” a rep from Unionize Yoga had said.

Has the Unionization Effort Been Successful?

0 notes

georgecmatthews · 5 years ago

Text

Portfolio managers examine the impact of COVID-19

As the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, so do unemployment rates. And so the world continues to look for balance between implementing public health measures, offering fiscal and monetary stimulus, and opening up economies.

At the same time, investors are looking for ways to position their portfolios in this environment. In this piece, we hear from three portfolio management teams with diverse perspectives on ways that COVID-19 has impacted their areas of investment expertise. The first discusses three potential scenarios for the year ahead and what they could mean for asset allocation decisions. The second examines how the Federal Reserve’s response to this crisis has helped bolster the US municipal market. And the third eschews market outlooks altogether in favor of a different question pertinent to global equities: “How is the world changing?”

Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Invesco Investment Solutions team

Jacob Borbidge, Portfolio Manager and Head of Research for the Invesco Investment Solutions team

Mark Paris, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Municipal Strategies for Invesco Fixed Income.

Randall Dishmon, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Invesco Oppenheimer Global Focus team.

Asset allocation: Gauging the investment implications of three COVID-19 scenarios

Alessio DeLongis & Jacob Borbidge. It took 11 years, but the longest lasting bull market on record has ended. Years from now, hindsight may suggest that the closing of the US and European economies, a previously unimaginable concept, was all but inevitable to contain COVID-19. But in reality, the outbreak took markets by surprise. The question, of course, is where do we go from here? While it is impossible to make predictions about COVID-19 related medical advancements, Invesco Investment Solutions has focused our attention on possible scenarios pertaining to the duration of the pandemic and how its impact on economic data and growth expectations may drive our investment process. Specifically, we have embedded the expectation of a U-shaped recession as our “base” case. Our objective is not to identify the most likely scenario and position our portfolios accordingly for the next 12 months; rather, it is to evaluate the most likely range of market outcomes, their associated risks and investment implications.

Base scenario: In this scenario, economic recovery would begin in the third quarter, but we would expect sideways markets with bouts of volatility as lack of a vaccine presents the risk of a second wave outbreak in the fall. Investment implications: In this case, we would favor average risk exposure, with an overweight to credit assets and an underweight to equities and government bonds. Within fixed income, we would consider overweighting high-quality credit (such as investment grade corporate and municipal debt) or a combination of riskier credit (such as high yield) and long-dated, longer-duration government bonds — while reducing exposure in short- and medium-term government bond maturities. Within equities, we may favor US stocks over other developed markets and emerging markets, growth over value, large caps over small caps, and defensive factors such as quality and low volatility.

Bear scenario: In this scenario, we could face a prolonged contraction of more than a year if the effects of COVID-19 are more severe than anticipated and the economy struggles to reopen. Investment implications: In this case, we would expect broad-based risk aversion and outperformance of (relatively) defensive assets. We would favor below-average risk exposure, with overweight positions in long-duration government bonds and high-quality credit, favoring US dollar or US dollar-hedged assets given the potential for further US dollar appreciation. Other considerations include underweighting riskier credit assets, especially emerging markets local currency and hard currency debt, or underweighting equities, especially in emerging and developed markets outside of the US. Within equities, we would favor the areas highlighted in our base scenario (US stocks, growth, large caps and defensive factors).

Bull scenario: In this scenario, the news around COVID-19 would be positive, with a drop in cases and/or the emergence of medical developments. A recovery could take hold in the second half of 2020 and into 2021 as people return to work and the effects of previous stimulus measures provide support. Investment implications: In this case, we would expect broad-based outperformance in cyclical and risky asset classes. We would favor an above-average risk posture, with overweight exposures to riskier credit assets and equities, and underweight exposures to government bonds and high-quality credit. Within credit, we would favor high yield, structured credit, emerging market hard currency and local currency debt with the expectation that the US dollar depreciates. In equities, we may favor emerging markets and international developed markets over US stocks, value over growth, small caps over large caps, and underweight positions in factors at risk of short-term reversal effects such as low volatility and momentum.