#JRL NewsBlog

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russian opposition activist Navalny calls for supporters to take to the streets this weekend" - bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian opposition activist Navalny calls for supporters to take to the streets this weekend” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

“Jailed anti-corruption blogger and opposition activist Alexei Navalny has called on Russians across the country to take to the streets this weekend …. Navalny appears to be hoping for a repeat of the 2013 demonstrations where thousands … gathered outside the Kremlin … to protest against his arrest at that time. … [T]he Kremlin backed down and released him, but this time … stakes are a lot…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Get them while they’re young; Vladimir Putin’s henchmen target Russia’s universities and students; There’s an election coming" - The Economist

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Get them while they’re young; Vladimir Putin’s henchmen target Russia’s universities and students; There’s an election coming” – The Economist

“… But going after politicians and the media, and arresting students and activists, is no longer sufficient. The Kremlin is now trying to get a grip over schools and universities in a more systematic way. In the past nine months some 20 universities and institutes across Russia have had their deans replaced. … Russian students and young people, once lauded by the Kremlin as part of Mr Putin’s…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Armenia seeks bigger Russian military presence on its territory" - Reuters

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Armenia seeks bigger Russian military presence on its territory” – Reuters

“Armenia would welcome .. expansion of a Russian military base on its territory and … redeployment of some Russian forces closer to its border with Azerbaijan … its defence minister said …. Ethnic Armenian[s] … in … Nagorno-Karabakh … ceded … territory in and around the enclave to Azerbaijan in a six-week conflict in 2020 … claim[ing] thousands of lives. Russian peacekeeping troops are deployed…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russia seizes on Suez blockage to promote merits of Arctic route; Moscow is busy highlighting the northern sea route and Nordstream as alternatives for world trade" - Financial Times/ Nastassia Astrasheuskaya

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia seizes on Suez blockage to promote merits of Arctic route; Moscow is busy highlighting the northern sea route and Nordstream as alternatives for world trade” – Financial Times/ Nastassia Astrasheuskaya

“[Seizing upon the recent Suez Canal blockage] Russia has been reminding Europe of … [Russia’s] northern sea route to Asia along its Arctic coast … responsible for 33 [million tons] of cargo last year, [compared with] more than 3 [millions tons] … daily [through the Suez Canal]. …. [Y]ear-round [northern sea route] navigation is not expected until 2025-2030 and climate risks remain …. Demand for…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "U.S. Bars Ukrainian Banking Tycoon Over Corruption Allegations; The action prevents Ihor Kolomoisky and family from entering the U.S. but is also likely to complicate his financial and business dealings" - Wall Street Journal/ Ian Talley, Alan Cullison, Georgi Kantchev

JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Bars Ukrainian Banking Tycoon Over Corruption Allegations; The action prevents Ihor Kolomoisky and family from entering the U.S. but is also likely to complicate his financial and business dealings” – Wall Street Journal/ Ian Talley, Alan Cullison, Georgi Kantchev

“… [U.S.] sanctions on a Ukrainian banking tycoon and former public official … for alleged corruption[] mark[] a renewed effort … to help Kyiv address a problem that finance officials say is at the heart of the country’s economic and political woes. While the action technically only prevents Ihor Kolomoisky, his wife, daughter and son from entering the U.S., the blacklisting is likely to…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Deaths in Poland Are a Warning for Everyone: Errant missiles from Ukraine are a reminder that wars can always escalate accidentally" - Foreign Policy/ Stephen M. Walt

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Deaths in Poland Are a Warning for Everyone: Errant missiles from Ukraine are a reminder that wars can always escalate accidentally” – Foreign Policy/ Stephen M. Walt

“If you think the risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are trivial, the tragic deaths of two Polish citizens from an errant Ukrainian air defense missile on Tuesday should give you some pause. A big war is underway in Ukraine, and even if the adversaries are trying to be careful, big wars are messy affairs rife with uncertainty and filled with unintended consequences. Weapons malfunction, local…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "The guns of January; As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms" - The Economist

JRL NEWSWATCH: “The guns of January; As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms” – The Economist

“… Even with [various] advantages, Russia would struggle to occupy [Kyiv], let alone … Ukraine, … as large and populous as Afghanistan. … [O]ver 300,000 Ukrainians have gained … military experience … [M]ost have access to firearms. … [T]he Pentagon and CIA [reportedly] would both support an armed insurgency. … Russia probably wants to avoid a long occupation, [but one might be unnecessary] ….…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russia denies looking for pretext to invade Ukraine" - AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov, Yuras Karmanau

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia denies looking for pretext to invade Ukraine” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov, Yuras Karmanau

“… The White House said … that U.S. intelligence officials … concluded that Russia … [has] deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage … and blame them on Ukraine in a ‘false-flag operation’ to create a pretext for possible invasion. … Sergey Lavrov dismissed [that] as ‘total disinformation.’ … [NATO] allies firmly rejected [Russian] demands [that NATO…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis; Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow" - Wall Street Journal/ Joe Wallace, Georgi Kantchev

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis; Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow” – Wall Street Journal/ Joe Wallace, Georgi Kantchev

“Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver in the … U.S.-Russia crisis … and making it highly vulnerable in the event of an escalation. … U.S. senators are expected to vote soon on … [Nord Stream 2] sanctions …. Western officials accuse the Kremlin of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European regulators to approve the pipeline…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Why the Russians Aren’t Coming!" - iAffairs Canada/ Egor Evsikov

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the Russians Aren’t Coming!” – iAffairs Canada/ Egor Evsikov

“… Imagery of Russian forces assembling near the [Ukrainian] border is just one of … several indicators to consider …. Russia is … a semi-authoritarian ‘managed democracy’ …. The Russian population does not live in a constant state of war readiness. A significant state-controlled media effort would be required to prepare the population and ensure public support for the invasion of Ukraine and the…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russia’s Putin Seizes on Crises to Assert Control Over Former Soviet Republics; In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected" - Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons, Brett Forrest

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Putin Seizes on Crises to Assert Control Over Former Soviet Republics; In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected” – Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons, Brett Forrest

“… The [Russian-led CSTO] venture into Kazakhstan, at the request of the country’s leader, follows nearly 15 years of Russian interventionism in Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine and elsewhere aimed at pulling [them] even closer to Russia … propping up [Kremlin-aligned] leaders … playing regional power-broker, or trying to weaken those … [showing] deference to the West. … Putin’s determination to…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "U.S., Russia Hold High-Stakes Talks on Ukraine" - AFP/ Nina Larson, Michael Mainville, Shaun Tandon

JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia Hold High-Stakes Talks on Ukraine” – AFP/ Nina Larson, Michael Mainville, Shaun Tandon

“… The high-stakes negotiations come amid fears of a Russian invasion of its pro-Western neighbor Ukraine, and with Moscow demanding wide-ranging concessions from Washington and its NATO allies. Monday’s talks in Geneva launch a week of diplomacy between Russia and the West after Moscow amassed tens of thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border, drawing the United States into a Cold War-style…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russia-Led Troops to Begin Leaving Kazakhstan in 2 Days — President" - AFP

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia-Led Troops to Begin Leaving Kazakhstan in 2 Days — President” – AFP

“Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led forces would begin leaving … in two days, with the pullout to take no more than 10 days. The CSTO mission of more than 2,000 troops was despatched at the peak of the crisis last week, after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree rendered parts of the largest city…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Where Does NATO Enlargement End?" - Creators.com/ Patrick Buchanan

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Does NATO Enlargement End?” – Creators.com/ Patrick Buchanan

“… NATO … Article 5 war guarantees … oblige the United States to wage war against Russia to restore their sovereignty and territorial integrity if attacked. … Why would we commit to risk war with a nuclear-armed Russia on behalf of nations no one has ever regarded as vital interests of the United States  …? … [A]fter 1991[] [there have been 14 new alliance members] … Czechia, Slovakia, Romania,…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Donetsk counts conflict cost as Russia, U.S. to meet; While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve" - AP

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Donetsk counts conflict cost as Russia, U.S. to meet; While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve” – AP

“… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number of such incidents, with both sides trading the blame …. With the bloody conflict now more than seven years old, there are fears in Ukraine and the West that a buildup of armed forces on Russia’s side of the border could lead to…

[jrljohnsonsrussialist]

JRL NEWSWATCH: "Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing; To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher" - Foreign Affairs/ Chris Miller

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing; To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher” – Foreign Affairs/ Chris Miller

“… the West’s threat of economic sanctions can work only if the proposed measures would make Russian military action against Ukraine expensive enough to alter the Kremlin’s cost-benefit calculus. Putin, however, sees Ukraine as crucial to Russia’s great-power status and to his own personal legacy. … for sanctions to work, they have to be costlier than the vast benefit Putin perceives in…