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mariacallous · 6 months

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Hungary's Orban blocks aid for Ukraine, says he can still halt EU accession

BRUSSELS, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoed a big European Union aid package for Kyiv on Friday, and said he could still halt Ukraine's accession after EU leaders approved the start of lengthy membership talks.

Leaders of all 27 EU states except Hungary agreed at a summit on Thursday to start accession talks with Ukraine despite Russia's invasion of its neighbour, bypassing Orban's grievances by getting him to leave the room.

But they could not overcome resistance from Orban to a revamp of the EU budget to channel 50 billion euros ($55 billion) to Ukraine and provide more cash for other tasks such as managing migration.

EU leaders said they would continue to help Kyiv. If no deal is found to do so within the EU budget, they will find workarounds, possibly with bilateral aid, they said.

The Kremlin praised the stance taken by Orban, who maintains close ties to Russia, but said the EU decision to open accession talks with Kyiv was politicised and could destabilise the bloc.

Orban, who has a history of trying to use disagreements with other EU leaders for his electoral benefit, told state radio he had blocked the aid package - part of a broader multi-year EU budget plan - to ensure Budapest gets funds from the EU budget that are frozen over concerns about the rule of law in Hungary.

"It is a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it must get what it is entitled to. Not half of it, or one-fourth," he said.

The European Commission, the EU executive, restored Hungary's access to 10.2 billion euros of frozen funds on Wednesday after Budapest passed laws addressing some of the EU's concerns, but funds worth billions of euros remain frozen.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed the approval of membership talks as a victory for Ukraine and Europe.

Kyiv is reliant on foreign assistance as Russia's war in Ukraine rages on, and U.S. President Joe Biden has so far been unable to get a $60 billion package for Kyiv through Congress.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said the decision to start accession talks made him "proud to be European" but was "only the first page of a very long, long process".

'BAD DECISION'?

Orban said Hungary could still block the talks at any time.

"This is a bad decision," he said. "We can halt this process later on, and if needed we will pull the brakes."

The EU leaders ended talks on the financial package in the early hours of Friday. All except Orban agreed to provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros over four years, but his veto blocked the funds because the decision requires unanimity.

"I can assure you, Ukraine will not be left without support, there are different ways to do this," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said, suggesting that a solution could be found by January, when an extraordinary summit would be held.

The best legal form for providing aid outside the EU budget is yet to be determined, but the European Commission could coordinate the collection of grants promised under the agreement and pass it on to Kyiv.

If the money were to be provided as loans, EU governments would probably need to provide guarantees for their part of the borrowing, a more cumbersome and costly process that might have to be repeated each year as new national budgets are passed.

Ukraine is unlikely to join the EU for many years, but the decision at the Brussels summit took it a step closer to its long-term strategic goal of anchoring itself in the West and leaving Russia's orbit.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz played a big role in getting Orban to leave the room to clear the way for a decision, diplomats and officials said.

EU leaders reconvened on Friday to discuss other topics including the Israel-Hamas war.

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ukrainenews · 1 year

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Daily Wrap Up January 10-11, 2023

Under the cut:

Brokering a deal on a safe zone around Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is getting harder because of military involvement in talks, the head of the U.N nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday. The Soviet-era plant, Europe’s largest, was captured by Russian forces in March, soon after their invasion of Ukraine. It has repeatedly come under fire in recent months, raising fears of a nuclear disaster, Reuters reports.

Fighting is still raging in Soledar, a salt mine town in eastern Ukraine, despite Russian claims that it has gained control of the region. Should Russian troops indeed capture the town, it would mark Moscow’s first gain in the Donbas for months – potentially offering President Vladimir Putin some welcome news after a string of defeats on the battlefield since last summer. The significance of Soledar in military terms is minimal. However, its capture would allow Russian forces, and especially the Wagner mercenary group, to turn their focus on nearby Bakhmut, which has been a target since the summer.

Polish President Andrzej Duda has announced the delivery of a company of modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Duda made the announcement at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv on Jan. 11 as part of the “Lublin Triangle” format, the regional partnership established by the three in July 2020.

Russia’s defense minister has appointed Valery Gerasimov as commander of the Joint Group of Forces leading the country's so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Gerasimov replaces Sergei Surovikin, who had been appointed to the role on Oct. 8, 2022, and was in charge of Russian forces during their retreat from large swaths of Ukraine’s Kherson region. Surovikin will now serve as a deputy commander, according to a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry.

“Brokering a deal on a safe zone around Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is getting harder because of military involvement in talks, the head of the U.N nuclear watchdog said on Wednesday.

The Soviet-era plant, Europe’s largest, was captured by Russian forces in March, soon after their invasion of Ukraine. It has repeatedly come under fire in recent months, raising fears of a nuclear disaster, Reuters reports.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi said in an interview with Italian public television RAI:

I don’t believe that (an agreement) is impossible, but it is not an easy negotiation … It has become … a longer and more difficult (negotiating) table.

Grossi added the talks have become more complex as they involve not just diplomats, but military officers as well.

He said:

They are playing with fire. A nuclear accident is in nobody’s interest, not even the Russians.”-via The Guardian

“Fighting is still raging in Soledar, a salt mine town in eastern Ukraine, despite Russian claims that it has gained control of the region.

Should Russian troops indeed capture the town, it would mark Moscow’s first gain in the Donbas for months – potentially offering President Vladimir Putin some welcome news after a string of defeats on the battlefield since last summer.

The significance of Soledar in military terms is minimal. However, its capture would allow Russian forces, and especially the Wagner mercenary group, to turn their focus on nearby Bakhmut, which has been a target since the summer.

The town of Soledar in Donetsk has been a target for Russian forces since last May. With a pre-war population of about 10,000, it has little strategic value in itself, but is a waypoint in the Russians’ attritional slog westwards. Moscow has struggled for months to attack Bakhmut from the east, but were it to capture Soledar, Moscow would at least be able to approach the city from a different path.

The Russian armed forces have had nothing to celebrate since the beginning of July, and have had to retreat in both Kharkiv to the north and Kherson in southern Ukraine.

The capture of Soledar, despite its now-ruined state, would therefore be rare progress. But it would be symbolic rather than substantive. The Institute for the Study of War said control of Soledar “will not necessarily allow Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication into Bakhmut,” the larger prize.

“Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value, the capture of Soledar would not portend an immediate encirclement of Bakhmut,” the think tank added.

But Soledar is of outsize significance to one man: oligarch and Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. His Wagner fighters, many of them former prison inmates, have taken heavy casualties with one wave after another of ground assaults across what has become a battlefield of trenches and mud reminiscent of World War I. After months in which the Russian Ministry of Defense has delivered nothing but retreat, Prigozhin is keen to show that his men deliver.”-via CNN

“Polish President Andrzej Duda has announced the delivery of a company of modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Duda made the announcement at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv on Jan. 11 as part of the “Lublin Triangle” format, the regional partnership established by the three in July 2020.

“A company of Leopard tanks will be provided as part of the coalition," Duda said at the press conference. A tank company generally consists of ten to a dozen tanks.

It is not clear which countries Duda had in mind with the term "international coalition." The lack of broader coordination among European partners has been consistently presented by Germany as the reason for not taking the lead with delivering Leopards.

Other European nations had previously signaled their readiness to provide the tanks, but also on condition of coordinated action between European states. On Jan. 6, Finland announced that it would be ready to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine "if Europe starts giving" them.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for U.K Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told media that Defense Secretary Ben Wallace had been given instructions by Sunak to move “further and faster with our support for Ukraine including the provision of tanks”, as reported by the Financial Times.

The only main battle tank in service in the British army is the Challenger 2, manufactured in the U.K. since 1998, of which 227 are currently in service.

On Jan 10, Politico reported that France was putting increasing pressure on Berlin to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on Jan. 22. Poland also exerted pressure on Germany by publicly calling for a broad coalition among Western allies to hand over Leopards.

Poland currently operates around 249 Leopard 2 tanks. These vehicles were aquired over the 2000s as a replacement for the country's Soviet-era t-72 tanks, of which over 230 have already been sent to Ukraine.

At the Lublin Triangle meeting in Lviv, the three leaders discussed support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, as well as questions of Ukraine's EU and NATO integration.

As part of Lithuanian 40 million euro military aid commitment for Ukraine over 2023, Naseda announced the delivery of more air defense systems, though the exact model was not specified.

After months of negotiations, Germany announced on Jan. 5 that it would provide Ukraine with Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The United States jointly announced it would give Ukraine 50 Bradley fighting vehicles on the same day. France said it would provide light tanks.”-via Kyiv Independent

“Russia’s defense minister has appointed Valery Gerasimov as commander of the Joint Group of Forces leading the country's so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Gerasimov replaces Sergei Surovikin, who had been appointed to the role on Oct. 8, 2022, and was in charge of Russian forces during their retreat from large swaths of Ukraine’s Kherson region. Surovikin will now serve as a deputy commander, according to a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry.

“On 11 January 2023, Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu assigns new leadership of special military operation,” the ministry said Wednesday on its official Telegram channel.

“Chief of General Staff General of the Army Valery Gerasimov has been assigned the commander of the Joint Group of Forces,” it said.

“The deputy commanders are: the Commander-in-Chief of Aerospace Forces General of the Army Sergei Surovikin, the Commander-in-Chief of the Army General of the Army Oleg Salyukov, as well as the Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Colonel General Aleksey Kim,” it added.

The ministry said that the changes were necessary because of “the amplified range of tasks, the necessity of closer cooperation between services and branches of the Armed Forces, as well as of improving the quality of all types of maintenance and efficiency of commanding the groups of forces.””-via CNN

#Daily Update #Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia #zaporizhzhya nuclear plant #Soledar #Poland

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libertariantaoist · 1 year

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News Roundup 7/7/2023 | The Libertarian Institute

Here is your daily roundup of today's news:

News Roundup 7/7/2023

by Kyle Anzalone

US News

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, particularly in the GOP, are pushing back against the renewal of a law authorizing a tool used by US spy agencies, in the post 9/11 era, to conduct warrantless surveillance on foreign targets and Americans with whom they may be interacting. The Institute

Russia

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Financial Times in an interview published Wednesday that his country serves as an ideal “testing ground” for Western weaponry. AWC

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday that its inspectors have seen no sign of explosives at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine despite claims from Kyiv that Russia had planted bombs. AWC

A group of former senior US officials has held talks with influential Russians, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an effort to lay the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, NBC News reported on Thursday. AWC

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that not many members of Russia’s Wagner Group followed their exiled leader to Belarus. AWC

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said Wednesday that Ukraine will receive “a lot” from NATO at the summit his country is hosting next week from July 11-12. AWC

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was now in Russia, raising questions about the deal between Moscow and the mercenary leader that ended his short-lived mutiny. AWC

The Associated Press reported Thursday that the Biden administration has decided to arm Ukraine with cluster bombs and will announce the munitions as part of a new $800 million arms package. AWC

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said Thursday that the threat to the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is subsiding. AWC

China

The Chinese Defense Ministry on Wednesday said the US was turning Taiwan into a “powder keg” in a warning over the Biden administration approving new arms deals for Taiwan worth $440 million. AWC

The US wants to turn India into a center for resupplying and maintenance of naval vessels in South Asia as part of its military buildup against China in the region, Nikkei Asia reported Thursday. AWC

Syria

The Pentagon released a video of a Russian fighter jet flying near an American drone above Syria. Moscow and Washington have accused each other of conducting unsafe aerial operations. The Institute

According to neoconservative columnist Josh Rogin – one of Bill Kristol’s protégés – Biden told these regime change advocates that, among other things, Assad must go. The Institute

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a press release on Thursday that it was involved in 37 operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria during the month of June. AWC

#kyle anzalone #libertarian institute #news roundup

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swamyworld · 24 days

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Lithuanian President Gitanas Nouceda Re-Elected in Vote Marked by Russia Fears

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nouceda speaks to the media as he celebrates victory in the final round of presidential elections in Vilnius. | Image Credit: Reuters Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda won re-election on Sunday in a vote marked by defense concerns over neighboring Russia, official results showed. A tally published by the Election Commission showed Nauseda winning 76% of the votes,…

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#fears #Gitanas #Lithuanian #marked #Nouceda #president #reelected #russia #vote

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cyberbenb · 2 months

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Lithuania's PM, president in favor of helping Ukraine bring back military-aged men

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte voiced support for helping Ukraine bring back its military-aged men living abroad, but after consultations with the EU and Kyiv Source : kyivindependent.com/lithuania…

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qudachuk · 11 months

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Watch as Joe Biden meets with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda for an official welcome ceremony at the presidential palace on Tuesday 11 July.

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yhwhrulz · 1 year

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Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said he proposed to US President Joe Biden to deploy HIMARS artillery, at

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xtruss · 1 year

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Munich Security Conference 2023: An Exercise in Western Self-Delusion

— Scott Ritter | Sputnik International | Monday February 20, 2023

Delegates from around the world assembled in Munich, Germany on February 17, 2023, to convene an eponymously named security conference that has, since its inception in 1963, operated under the motto “Peace through Dialogue.”

For three days, world leaders participated in what has become known as "the Davos of Defense" (a reference to the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland), discussing critical security issues of the day.

This year, not surprisingly, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict dominated the agenda. What was a surprise, however, was the emphasis that western participants placed on action over discussion when it came to formulating a collective strategy for achieving some sort of conflict termination. Indeed, the dominant theme at Munich was not simply how to provide more material to Ukraine's military, but how to do so in a manner that escalates the conflict by challenging Russia's so-called "red lines" - regarding western support to Ukraine.

For the first time since the 1990’s, Russia was not invited to attend the conference. Instead, prominent Russian opposition figures, including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were invited. The chairman of the conference, Christoph Heusgen, explained this pointed deviation from the principle of promoting dialogue by declaring that he did not want to be seen as providing a platform for Russian propaganda.

A soldier at the Three Swords-2021 tactical drills, jointly held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO countries at the Yavorovsky training facility in the Lvov Region. © Sputnik

Instead, it turned out, Heusgen turned the floor over to western propagandists.

The underlying theme in Munich went beyond an escalation of support for Ukraine, and instead embraced the outright provocation of Russia. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda served as the pace-setter for this trend when, prior to the Munich Security Conference, he urged western leaders to consider providing Ukraine with “essential military aid” such as tanks, fighter aircraft, and long-range missiles, despite long-standing concerns by the west that the provision of such aid would be seen by Russia as evidence of direct participation by the providing parties in the conflict. “These red lines,” Nauseda declared, “must be crossed.”

On cue, ‘The Criminal and Thug Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky’ opened the conference with an appeal, delivered via video and designed to underscore a sense of urgency.

"We need to hurry up," US Puppet, Criminal & Thug Zelensky declared. "We need speed—speed of our agreements, speed of our delivery, speed of decisions to limit Russian potential. There is no alternative to speed because it is the speed that the life depends on," Thug Zelensky said, concluding that there was "no alternative to a Ukrainian victory."

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (L) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pose for photographers ahead of a meeting at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany, on February 18, 2023. (Photo By Sven Hoppe/POOL/AFP)

But Zelensky’s exhortations for speed appeared to fall upon deaf ears when it came to two of Europe’s most important leaders. Both Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron underscored that, from their perspective, the conflict in Ukraine would not be ending anytime soon. "I think it’s wise to prepare for a long war," Scholz noted in his remarks to the conference, a sentiment Macron echoed by saying that Europe should prepare for a "prolonged conflict in Ukraine."

Declaring that now was "not the time for dialogue," Macron urged his fellow conference attendees to action. "We absolutely need to intensify our support and our effort to the resistance of the Ukrainian people and its army," Macron said, and "help them to launch a counter-offensive which alone can allow credible negotiations, determined by Ukraine, its authorities and its people."

There is a fundamental disconnect between the frenetic urgings of President Zelensky and the long-term approaches taken by Scholz and Macron that point to an overall atmosphere of self-delusion that seemed to dominate the Munich Security Conference.

‘Braindead Boak Bollocks Biden’ Visits Kiev to Reassure ‘US Puppet, Criminal and Thug Zelensky’ While Support for US Proxy War in Ukraine Wanes

While US Vice President Kamala Harris spoke of bringing Russian leaders "to justice" for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military is being systemically ground down on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, soil that Russia now claims for its own. Current NATO military commander, Lieutenant General Christopher Cavoli, has described these battles as being "out of proportion" to NATO plans and capabilities in terms of the "scope and scale" of the violence being perpetrated on the ground by both parties to the conflict.

Rather than accept the inevitability of a Ukrainian military defeat, however, Cavoli briefed US lawmakers on the sidelines of the Munich Conference that, in his opinion, Ukraine should be provided with modern jet aircraft, including F-16 fighters, and long-range missiles capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory. These weapons, Cavoli said, would enable Ukraine to fight what he termed “the deep fight”, shifting the emphasis from the deadly fighting at the point of direct engagement to a new war where Ukraine would disrupt the Russian war effort by striking headquarters and supply lines deep behind the frontlines.

In short, Cavoli was outlining an escalatory strategy brought to life by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda’s earlier exhortations to cross all “red lines” when it came to supporting Ukraine.

‘Idiot to his Core US President Joe Biden (L)’ walks next to ‘Puppet, Criminal and Thug Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R)’ past a religious mural at the St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Cathedral, as he arrives for a visit in Kiev on February 20, 2023. © AFP 2023/Dimitar Dilkoff

But simple rhetoric cannot bridge the yawning gap that exists with reality. Words, especially in an environment like this year’s Munich Security Conference, where all pretense at dialogue has been forsaken in favor of the construction of a pro-western echo, resonate in a manner which promotes an artificial sense of substance. But unless these words are backed by concerted action, they carry no weight and will soon dissipate into nothingness.

This, in short, is the reality of the Munich Security Council—an exercise in self-delusion, similar in construct to the discussions around the conference table in the last days of the Battle of Berlin in 1945, in which Adolf Hitler moved imaginary armies around in a vain effort to seize victory from the inevitability of defeat.

Biden Came to Kiev to Show Who's Boss, Says Acting DPR Head Pushilin! US President Joe Biden's visit to Kiev was designed to show who is the boss, Denis Pushilin, acting head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), told Sputnik. © Sputnik/Eugene Odinokov/Go to the mediabank

"To receive the heads of other countries is an internal affair of sovereign states, but this is not the case of Ukraine. It is controlled from the United States, and one of the architects of the 2014 armed state coup arrived in Kiev," Pushilin said. He said Biden said billions will be given to Ukraine, but everyone clearly understands what these funds will be used for.

"Everyone clearly understands that these funds will be used to further incite hostilities," Pushilin said.

“Of course, this is a demonstrative visit. First of all, it should show the world who is the boss in this house. But there are other important reasons. It is necessary to 'support' the Ukrainian people, who no longer want to fight so zealously, it is necessary to 'support' the falling rating of Zelensky, who is making increasingly unpopular decisions, it is necessary to persuade the remaining part of Ukraine to keep sacrificing themselves for the sake of US interests,” he said.

Thug Zelensky Says US, Ukraine Working on Delivery of Arms Not Previously Supplied to Kiev! On Monday, Biden arrived in Kiev for an unannounced visit for the first time since the start of Russia's special operation and met with Zelensky. During a briefing, Biden said that Ukraine would receive a new military assistance package worth $500 million, as well as "billions" in direct budgetary support this week. The assistance package will include more ammunition for US-made and other equipment already delivered to Ukraine, including additional 155mm artillery rounds, 120mm mortar rounds, approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets, as well as four Bradley Infantry Fire Support Team vehicles, spare parts, and other field equipment.

The fact is, there are no tanks, no long-range missiles, no fighter aircraft available in any realistic time-frame that can help Ukraine reverse the deterioration of its military posture vis-à-vis Russia. Zelensky’s demands for urgency reflect a growing recognition on his part that, if left on the current trajectory, the war with Russia will be over soon—perhaps as early as August 2023. The inability and/or unwillingness on the part of the western military and civilian leadership to match their declarations of support with Zelensky’s timeline demonstrates an absolute divorce from reality on the part of those who were gathered in Munich, or else the cynicism of those who know the tragic fate that awaits those the claim to support only too well.

The harsh truth that the participants of the Munich Security Conference know, but cannot speak, is that there is no hope for a Ukrainian victory over Russia.

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creatiview · 1 year

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[ad_1] EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — An explosion last week, in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killed two people and created heightened concern about just how quickly the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict. The Cipher Brief compiled a tic-toc of what happened, telling the story of how a single missile brought into sharp focus, the risks that are truly at play in Ukraine. BACKGROUND Polish Radio ZET reported that two stray missiles caused the blast. The Associated Press cited a senior US intelligence official saying Russian missiles had crossed into Poland. The Pentagon initially said it could not confirm reports that Russian missiles had landed in Polish territory. The Russian Defense Ministry denied the reports, calling the allegations “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.” It added that Russia did not hit targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border and that debris found at the site of the blasts had “nothing to do with Russian weapons.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said, without providing evidence, that Russian missiles hit Poland. He called the attack on “the territory of our friendly country” an “attack on collective security” and said it marked a “significant escalation” in the conflict with Russia. In response to the blasts, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marawiecki held an emergency Security Council meeting. The Polish government also raised military readiness. Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke with President Joe Biden about the blasts. The White House said Biden reiterated to Duda that the US has an “ironclad commitment to NATO.” Duda also discussed the incident with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said it was important to find all the facts behind the causes of the explosion. A Polish government spokesman said Poland is considering whether it will call NATO for discussions under Article 4, which states that an alliance member can call for consultations when it feels its “territorial integrity, political independence or security” are at risk. “If this was an accident, the instinct in Warsaw and Washington will be caution and restraint, with Article 4 discussions signaling the Russians not to screw up again,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Acting Director of CIA John McLaughlin told us. John McLaughlin, Former CIA Acting Director “If this was a deliberate provocation, and we will almost certainly know before long, then the Alliance will be provoked and will have to respond in some way. The default impulse will probably be to avoid getting into a tit-for-tat between NATO and Russia. But we might relax some of the cautions we’ve given the Ukrainians about not hitting certain Russian targets or other redlines.” The incident sparked alarm and calls for the defense of NATO territory across central and eastern Europe, putting squarely into focus the question of just how quickly NATO would be ready to launch a response and what that response might look like. Latvia appeared to explicitly accuse Russia of causing the blasts. Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks tweeted, “Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which targeted not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland.” Estonia expressed solidarity with Poland as well as its willingness to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” according to a tweet from the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, Estonia did not explicitly blame Russia for the blasts. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda likewise expressed solidarity with Poland and called for “every inch of NATO territory” to be defended, according to a tweet. He said “the cause of the explosions is not yet known,” but added that they happened as Russia launched missile strikes in Ukraine. Hungary convened a defense council meeting to discuss the blasts, as well as disruptions to oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline. “We don’t know enough yet about the strike,” cautioned Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral Jim Stavridis (Ret.).

Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander “But assuming it was an errant missile from Russia, this provides a strong motivation to reinforce air defense along the NATO-Ukraine border at a minimum. It could also cause NATO to provide MIG-29 aircraft to the Ukrainians from Poland, with US backfilling with F-16s. And it may cause a serious discussion about putting a no-fly zone up over Ukraine, manned by NATO fighters.” The Morning After The Polish Foreign Ministry released a statement early Wednesday saying that a Russian-made missile caused an explosion in eastern Poland that killed two people. The ministry said it summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations” for the blasts. Polish President Andrzej Duda then appeared to step back from a full-throated condemnation of Russia, saying there is no conclusive evidence showing who fired the missiles and that investigations are ongoing. He added that the explosion appeared to be a “one-off” incident. He also said it is likely Poland will ask for consultations under Article 4 at a planned North Atlantic Council meeting on Wednesday. President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting of NATO and G7 leaders gathered in Bali for a G20 summit to discuss the missile blast. He told reporters that, according to “preliminary information,” he thinks “it is unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia due to its trajectory, but said he would not make any conclusions until the Polish investigation is completed. Three US officials tell The Associated Press that preliminary findings suggest that the missile that landed in Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian missile. Polish President Andrzej Duda says the explosion was “very likely” an “unfortunate accident” caused by an Ukrainian air defense missile, rather than any “intentional attack.” He added that the missile was “most likely” Russian-made, but that there is no current evidence that Russian forces fired it. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed Duda’s conclusion, though he emphasized that “this is not Ukraine’s fault” and that “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.” Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief, MI6 “It is, literally, a warning shot about the possibility of escalation,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Chief, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6 Sir Alex Younger told us. “But I’m confident that Putin understands that deliberate escalation is very much not in his interest. I’d add that even if it was a Ukrainian air defence missile, the blame still lies firmly with Russia.” What Did We Learn? Among other things, we learned how dangerously close a single missile can come to escalating an already tense situation to a higher level of global conflict. We learned how quickly information is shared and we saw how NATO countries were at least thinking about responding, if the missile had in fact, been fired by Russia. While the lessons from this single incident are worth noting, so too is the bigger picture. “In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, the response of the West was inadequate. Russia got to hold on to 20% of the nation of Georgia,” Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Phil Breedlove (Ret.) told us. General Phil Breedlove (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander “The western world rewarded Russia’s bad behavior. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and took 11 or 12% of Ukrainian territory. Moscow threatened to huff and puff and blow our house down with World War III or their nukes. Once again, the west capitulated and allowed them to hang on to a big chunk of Ukraine. For the second time, we rewarded bad behavior. We shouldn’t be surprised that we’re back now for a third time. Russia has seized another big part of Ukraine. And when the west starts to respond, Russia has huffed and puffed and threatened to blow our house down with World War III and nukes.

And they fully expect us to capitulate a third time. We in the West are at a point of decision, are we going to, for the third time, reward bad behavior? The West and the Western world have a decision to make. Mr. Putin is huffing and he’s puffing and he’s threatening to blow our house down and we need to decide how we’re going to respond. Here’s what I know for sure: If we capitulate and allow Russia to hold onto even more Ukrainian territory, we’ll be back here again in 2025 and 2028 and 2031 and 2033. It’s time for us to step up.” Cipher Brief Writer and Researcher Ethan Masucol contributed to this piece Read more expert-driven national security insight, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief [ad_2] Source link

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