#Susan Brower (Minnesota State Demographer)

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Negative Impact on Minnesota of Donald Trump’s Proposed Immigration Restrictions

Candidate Donald Trump’s proposed immigration changes would “send shock waves through [Minnesota’s] economy” according to the StarTribune’s Emma Nelson and Christopher Vondracek. Those changes would bar refugees, carry out mass deportations and limit birthright citizenship. [1] Here are the perceived impact of such proposed changes on the State of Minnesota. “Minnesota’s unemployment rate is…

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PROGRAM: 19659002 1. Contact us to Order 2. Adoption of Previous Meeting Minutes 3. Public Testimony 4. Summary of Minnesota Long-Term Care Demographics – Dr. Susan Brower, State Demographer 5. Workplace of Ombudsman for Long-Term Care – Genevieve Gaboriault, Deputy Ombudsman 19459006 6. Discussion on Green House Model of Nursing Home – Dr. Sheryl Zimmerman,…

[techcrunchappcom]

New Post has been published on https://techcrunchapp.com/census-whiplashed-by-changing-deadlines-accuracy-concerns-national-news/

Census whiplashed by changing deadlines, accuracy concerns | National News

The constantly fluctuating deadline probably affected the quality of the data gathered, since census takers were more likely to rely on administrative records or neighbors instead of making an extra visit to a household if they were under the gun to end the count, Minnesota State Demographer Susan Brower said.

Many census takers have said they hadn’t been given work since the beginning of the month, with little explanation, even though they had been planning to work through the end of October.

In recent weeks, “the census operation has been in a holding pattern,” Brower said. “They didn’t say, ‘Great! More time. Let’s go back and revisit some of those things we’ve already done.’ The attitude was more, ‘What’s done is done, and we will put our energy toward closing cases.’”

Brower said she is more concerned about whether Census Bureau statisticians can process the data accurately by Dec. 31, in less than three months, when they originally had five months to do it.

“My interpretation is it cannot be done in that amount of time,” she said..

Whether that Dec. 31 deadline holds is still being decided in the courts.

The data processing phase takes time since the statisticians must remove duplicate answers, fill in information gaps by using records and check for quality, said Thomas Saenz, president and general counsel for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

[kim26chiu]

Why the Booster Club Won’t Save Minneapolis

Someone who took issue with my treatment of Minneapolis’ attraction issue sent me a link to this Star Tribune piece noting that migration into the region increased last year.

To be clear: this article is from March of this year, so I’m late to the game in analyzing it. But I don’t recall seeing it previously.

Here’s an excerpt:

A surge in people moving from elsewhere in the country to the Twin Cities last year contributed to the metro area’s population growth, which added a quarter-million residents since 2010, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau….The Twin Cities’ growth lags that of its rival metros, such as Seattle, Portland and Denver, and it’s well behind by the population boom in Florida and Texas cities. But those who analyze the data are optimistic about the impact on the local economy.

Matt Lewis tracks the movement of “working professionals” — specifically people over 23 with an associate degree or higher — to the metro area for Greater MSP. Looking at five-year averages, he recently found that 2016 was the best year for attracting new professionals to the region since tracking began in 2007.

“When we’re looking at professionals in the workforce, something happened where our performance notably jumped in 2016 — and that trend looks like it’s continuing,” Lewis said. … The net number of people who moved to the Twin Cities from elsewhere in the country, versus those who left, rose dramatically last year, according to the new census data, which is derived from the American Community Survey. And 2017 was the first year since 2001 that more people moved to Minnesota from other states than moved out of state, according to census data crunched by the state demographer’s office.

Demographers won’t be able to explain precisely who these people are until more data becomes available. But demographer Susan Brower said it is good news for the local economy, because existing residents are dying in higher numbers and births are relatively flat.

Everything in the article looks correct to me, but I think comes across with an overly optimistic spin.

The lede is a bit misleading. The region has added a quarter of a million people since 2010, but the uptick in domestic migration had virtually nothing to do with it. Here are the actual sources of that population change.

It’s all coming from more births than deaths, and international migration.

Net domestic migration did tick up last year. Here’s the chart of year by year domestic migration since 2010:

There has been an increase over the last couple of years, but the region is not among the biggest gainers nationally. MSP had domestic migration of 8,095 last year. But Columbus drew 12,562, Kansas City drew 8,532, and Indianapolis drew 7,763. These are much smaller regions meaning their rates of net domestic migration are much higher than Minneapolis. MSP isn’t even leading the Midwest here. (It’s also comparable to those cities in total population growth).

It’s also the case the Minneapolis’ draw remains almost entirely regional. The vast bulk of positive migration comes into the region from Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. Although as a bi-state metro where in-state migration from Minnesota is not even the top source (that’s Wisconsin) this stat is perhaps less meaningful, we see that Minneapolis-St. Paul actually has negative migration with the country outside of Minnesota, and has been underperforming the 1990s.

The Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area even loses people to California, which is quite a feat considering the cost differential. And it also loses people to Washington and Oregon.

I used IRS tax return data for this. You can also get some data of this type via the ACS, but not as long a series. If someone wants to look at that by all means please do. This is limited to tax filers, and some are excluded for various reasons. The ACS is an actual survey, but has margin of error considerations. (You can also look at migration by characteristics in it, which is interesting). I haven’t dug into the ACS lately.

Should you be interested in MSP migration rolled up to the state level as sourced from the IRS, here’s a spreadsheet.

Here’s my bottom line. A one or two year uptick in a key measure is good news and something to be celebrated. But when local boosters are sending me this to try to suggest MSP is different from the rest of the Midwest, that’s a problem. Because it’s exactly like the other higher Midwest performers like Columbus and Indianapolis.

Minneapolis is still failing at attracting national talent and that’s a 911 emergency for the region. Nothing in this data changes that as of yet.

from Aaron M. Renn https://www.urbanophile.com/2018/09/19/why-the-booster-club-wont-save-minneapolis/

[barb31clem]

Why the Booster Club Won’t Save Minneapolis

Someone who took issue with my treatment of Minneapolis’ attraction issue sent me a link to this Star Tribune piece noting that migration into the region increased last year.

To be clear: this article is from March of this year, so I’m late to the game in analyzing it. But I don’t recall seeing it previously.

Here’s an excerpt:

A surge in people moving from elsewhere in the country to the Twin Cities last year contributed to the metro area’s population growth, which added a quarter-million residents since 2010, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau….The Twin Cities’ growth lags that of its rival metros, such as Seattle, Portland and Denver, and it’s well behind by the population boom in Florida and Texas cities. But those who analyze the data are optimistic about the impact on the local economy.

Matt Lewis tracks the movement of “working professionals” — specifically people over 23 with an associate degree or higher — to the metro area for Greater MSP. Looking at five-year averages, he recently found that 2016 was the best year for attracting new professionals to the region since tracking began in 2007.

“When we’re looking at professionals in the workforce, something happened where our performance notably jumped in 2016 — and that trend looks like it’s continuing,” Lewis said. … The net number of people who moved to the Twin Cities from elsewhere in the country, versus those who left, rose dramatically last year, according to the new census data, which is derived from the American Community Survey. And 2017 was the first year since 2001 that more people moved to Minnesota from other states than moved out of state, according to census data crunched by the state demographer’s office.

Demographers won’t be able to explain precisely who these people are until more data becomes available. But demographer Susan Brower said it is good news for the local economy, because existing residents are dying in higher numbers and births are relatively flat.

Everything in the article looks correct to me, but I think comes across with an overly optimistic spin.

The lede is a bit misleading. The region has added a quarter of a million people since 2010, but the uptick in domestic migration had virtually nothing to do with it. Here are the actual sources of that population change.

It’s all coming from more births than deaths, and international migration.

Net domestic migration did tick up last year. Here’s the chart of year by year domestic migration since 2010:

There has been an increase over the last couple of years, but the region is not among the biggest gainers nationally. MSP had domestic migration of 8,095 last year. But Columbus drew 12,562, Kansas City drew 8,532, and Indianapolis drew 7,763. These are much smaller regions meaning their rates of net domestic migration are much higher than Minneapolis. MSP isn’t even leading the Midwest here. (It’s also comparable to those cities in total population growth).

It’s also the case the Minneapolis’ draw remains almost entirely regional. The vast bulk of positive migration comes into the region from Wisconsin, the Dakotas, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. Although as a bi-state metro where in-state migration from Minnesota is not even the top source (that’s Wisconsin) this stat is perhaps less meaningful, we see that Minneapolis-St. Paul actually has negative migration with the country outside of Minnesota, and has been underperforming the 1990s.

The Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area even loses people to California, which is quite a feat considering the cost differential. And it also loses people to Washington and Oregon.

I used IRS tax return data for this. You can also get some data of this type via the ACS, but not as long a series. If someone wants to look at that by all means please do. This is limited to tax filers, and some are excluded for various reasons. The ACS is an actual survey, but has margin of error considerations. (You can also look at migration by characteristics in it, which is interesting). I haven’t dug into the ACS lately.

Should you be interested in MSP migration rolled up to the state level as sourced from the IRS, here’s a spreadsheet.

Here’s my bottom line. A one or two year uptick in a key measure is good news and something to be celebrated. But when local boosters are sending me this to try to suggest MSP is different from the rest of the Midwest, that’s a problem. Because it’s exactly like the other higher Midwest performers like Columbus and Indianapolis.

Minneapolis is still failing at attracting national talent and that’s a 911 emergency for the region. Nothing in this data changes that as of yet.

from Aaron M. Renn https://www.urbanophile.com/2018/09/19/why-the-booster-club-wont-save-minneapolis/

[minnesotafollower]

Minnesota Will Suffer from a Crackdown on U.S. Immigration  

Today “Minnesota is home to about 480,000 foreign-born residents, comprising about 8.5% of the population, according to the state Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). Those residents tend to be younger than Minnesota’s native-born population, and most are in their prime working years, filling jobs from agriculture to education to health care. Between 2011 and 2021, immigrants…