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Closing Time: Buster Posey's missing power
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San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey has fantasy owners searching for power (AP Photo).
• Buster Posey was never a huge power guy (he’s never hit 25 homers in a season during his career and hasn’t reached 20 since 2014), but it’s all but evaporated this season, as he’s gone yard just once over his past 112 at bats and is slugging .404 on the year (his lowest since 2011). He had a nice walk-off hit Wednesday but entered as the No. 343 ranked fantasy player. The Giants have even tinkered with batting him second in the lineup recently, a spot where his low K% makes sense but his slow base running and propensity to ground into double plays don’t. 
He’ll hit in the middle of San Francisco’s mediocre lineup regardless, and Posey’s underwhelming counting stats (he’s on pace to record just 48 RBI) are especially troubling given the usually extremely pitcher-friendly AT&T Park has benefitted hitters more in 2018, something that figures to regress. His pitch framing numbers are way down as well, so it’s safe to say Posey is in decline. Here are his HR/FB rates since 2012, respectively: 18.8, 10.0, 13.4, 11.0, 9.8, 8.4, 6.3. That’s not an encouraging trend (although he has hit more Barrels this season (16) than he did all of last (15), for what it’s worth). Posey is still a good hitter, and he’s the rare fantasy catcher who helps batting average, but the utter lack of power really limits the former MVP’s upside. He’s skipping the All-Star game in order to receive an injection in his hip that’s bothered him all season, so hopefully that helps Posey bounce back in the second half.
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• Carlos Rodon picked up a win by holding the Cardinals scoreless over 7.1 innings Wednesday and now sits with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after seven starts since returning from shoulder surgery. He has control issues, and wins won’t be easy pitching for the White Sox, but Rodon was the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft and owns a career 10.0 SwStr%. He’s just 20 percent owned in Yahoo leagues but expect that number to climb after Wednesday’s outing.
• Quick Hits: A Shelby Miller start in Coors Field screamed disaster, and the Rockies didn’t disappoint by scoring 19 runs. Daniel Descalso entered in relief with one out in the fourth, making it the earliest a position player has pitched in a game since 1979. Carlos Gonzalez (who entered averaging the longest HR distance (425 ft) in MLB) and Ian Desmond combined for three homers and 11 RBI…Not to be outdone, Cleveland also scored 19 runs Wednesday, thanks in part to Jason Kipnis, who homered twice and reached base eight times over the three-game series against the Reds. Maybe Kipnis’ bat is finally awakening from a season long slump, and he’s out there in 70 percent of leagues. Few parks in baseball boost run scoring like Progressive Field.
Jacob deGrom took yet another no-decision Wednesday despite tossing eight scoreless innings. After 18 starts, he has a 1.68 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a 5-4 record to show for it…Greg Bird homered and recorded four RBI for the second straight game. He’s still available in more than 60 percent of leagues…Right after I hyped him, Lance McCullers was hit hard Wednesday, allowing six runs over just four innings versus the A’s. He walked five batters while fanning only one and goes into the All-Star break on a down note…Brandon Nimmo had seen his OPS fall from 1.013 to .878 over the last three weeks before his pinch-hit, walk-off homer Wednesday…Marco Gonzalez impressed again while winning his third straight start and now sports a 2.35 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over his last 11 outings (72.2 innings). He’s up to 10 wins on the season…I’m beginning to think Garrett Richards might be injury prone.
Will Smith tossed another two scoreless innings and now sits with a 0.95 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 38 strikeouts over 28.1 innings. He’s also currently acting as the Giants’ closer, and I won’t stop writing about him until his ownership surpasses 40 percent…Chris Sale turned in his fifth straight performance with at least 11 strikeouts and one walk or fewer (becoming the first pitcher ever to do so) and sports a 0.94 ERA with 78 Ks over his last seven starts (48.0 innings). Sale is appointment viewing these days, and his career has been remarkable given he’s always pitched in the American League and in hitter’s parks (it’s crazy he’s younger than Chris Archer). Sale should be a top-five pick in fantasy drafts next year.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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MLB Stock Watch: Lance McCullers rising, David Price falling
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Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers highlights this week’s look at risers and fallers in fantasy baseball. (AP Photo).
STOCK UP
Lance McCullers: One of the more hyped pitchers entering 2018, McCullers managed to stay healthy yet owned a disappointing 3.82 ERA over his first 16 starts this season. He’s lowered that nearly a full half run over his last two outings, when he’s flashed a 19:2 K:BB ratio while embarrassing hitters. He’s benefited from an extremely favorable schedule of late (@KC, KC, @TB, CWS), and durability remains in question with McCullers, but he’s lived up to the hype while flashing a ridiculous curveball that’s produced a 17.5 SwStr% this season. Barring health, McCullers is here to stay as one of the game’s top hurlers.
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Starlin Castro: A mediocre first season in Miami suddenly looks better after Castro’s hot last two weeks, when he’s hit .464/.516/.661 with three homers and a steal over 56 at bats. Castro has multiple hits in six of his past seven games and has essentially matched last year’s production at the plate with the Yankees (110 wRC+) this season (107 wRC+) while playing far better defense. Castro is increasing his trade value, and while a move would likely result in a less prime spot in the order, it would likely still improve his fantasy value getting out of Miami’s weak lineup and extreme pitcher’s park.
Nathan Eovaldi: He carried a perfect game into the seventh inning Sunday (he was later pulled after just 79 pitches in a lopsided game) and sports a 0.95 ERA with a 23:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts (19.0 innings). Through eight outings after returning from Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi owns a stellar 0.81 WHIP, and his 21.0 K-BB% would rank top-15 among starters if he qualified. He’s throwing as hard as ever (97.0 mph), has a career-high 10.4 SwStr% and yet remains owned in just 38 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Shin-soo Choo: He broke the Rangers record Sunday by reaching base safely in his 47th straight game and is hitting .355/.470/.655 over his past 110 at bats. Choo is about to turn 36 years old yet is up to 17 homers this season after recording 22 in 200+ more at bats in 2017. He ranks top-20 in wRC+ (146), Barrel% (13.1) and xwOBA (.405), so Choo has been one of draft day’s biggest bargains so far. Only Coors Field has boosted batting average more than the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington over the last three years.
Billy Hamilton: He racked up seven hits over the weekend in Chicago while swiping five bases over the last two games. Hamilton has been a bust this year (.231/.313/.315), but he’s starting to run wild (attempting seven stolen bases over the last five games), and his strong defense has kept his bat in the lineup. Hamilton remains one of the fastest players in baseball, and while his Ks are up, his BB% (10.4) is easily a career best, so he’s at least making incremental improvements. Hamilton averaged 57.5 steals over the previous four seasons (while averaging fewer than 500 bats and with a lesser OBP than he sports right now) and has hit .375 over the past 20 games, so any window to buy low is closing.
STOCK DOWN
David Price: He didn’t last five innings during his last start in Kansas City against a team with the worst wRC+ (80) in baseball and has now served up a whopping six home runs over his last two starts. Price’s 101:34 K:BB ratio this season is fine, but his 4.33 FIP that nearly matches his ERA suggests he hasn’t been unlucky, and his velocity (92.8 mph) has been a career low. His nine wins have helped fantasy owners, but those expecting a big bounce back from Price are left with a pitcher who’s unlikely to ever again resemble his past self.
Cole Hamels: Like Price, Hamels has solid peripherals (106:39 K:BB ratio) to go with poor cosmetic stats (4.28 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) thanks to allowing too many homers (21). Hamels has also struggled mightily of late, giving up 14 runs (10 earned) over his last two starts, failing to get out of the first inning during his last outing in Detroit against a weak Tigers offense. Poor defense let him down that game, and Hamels’ fantasy value could improve if he’s traded as rumored, but he’s currently in the wrong park to pitch with diminished stuff. Only seven starters have a worse FIP than Hamels’ 5.14.
George Springer: He certainly hasn’t been a disaster for fantasy owners, thanks in part to his situation, but Springer’s .758 OPS is no doubt a disappointment. He’s already recorded more steals (six) this year than last (five), but his Hard Hit% (37.7) is a career low, so Springer’s .276 BABIP isn’t necessarily a product of just bad luck. He should bounce back and qualifies as something of a buy-low candidate, but his first half hasn’t exactly gone as planned.
Trey Mancini: Mancini has followed up a pleasantly surprising rookie campaign by hitting .224/.297/.369. He’s walking more this season but is hitting more ground balls with a noticeably lower launch angle, and the Orioles have recently moved him down to eighth in their lineup. Mancini owns an ugly .690 OPS this season at home, where Camden Yards ranks No. 3 among parks increasing homers for righties over the last three seasons.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Closing Time: Digging for deeper pickups
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Chicago White Sox’s Daniel Palka is a sneaky source for power for those in deeper fantasy leagues (AP Photo).
• Daniel Palka homered Wednesday for the third time over the last two games, and while he’s batting just .235 on the year and isn’t guaranteed regular playing time with Avisail Garcia back, the rookie is up to 10 homers over 187 at bats and has intriguing underlying stats. Palka entered Wednesday with the No. 11 ranked Barrel%, sandwiched between Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. His exit velocity (93.0 mph) is top-15, and his average HR (419 ft) is top-10. Palka strikes out a ton and is a mess defensively, but he has “60” power and plays in a home park that’s increased HR for LHB by 22 percent over the past three seasons, which is the third-highest in MLB over that span. If you’re looking for home runs, Palka is available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues.
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• Andrew Suarez held the Rockies to just one run over seven innings Wednesday but took a loss in a pitcher’s duel, as Tyler Anderson hurled eight scoreless frames for his second consecutive start. Suarez has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight outings and was strong in Coors, with his lone run scoring on a homer to Chris Iannetta that was just barely fair. He shows up low on fantasy ranks thanks in part to having just three wins on the season, but the rookie owns an impressive 72:15 K:BB ratio over 78.0 innings and a 3.55 FIP. With Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija both soon returning, this performance by Suarez likely ticketed Chris Stratton out of San Francisco’s rotation.
Meanwhile, Anderson is starting to look worthy of being a former first round pick, as he now sports an 8.3 K/9 rate and a 1.22 WHIP despite pitching half his games in Coors Field. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over his last six starts (41.1 innings) and a 12.1 SwStr% that ranks top-20 among starters, and he’s holding hitters to a lowly 28.8 Hard Hit%. Both Suarez and Anderson are owned in fewer than 15 percent of leagues. Wednesday’s 1-0 game was brutal for DFS owners who stacked Coors Field, and the Giants leave Colorado having scored just three runs over a three-game sweep.
• Gleyber Torres was put on the disabled list Wednesday with a right hip strain, and Neil Walker should get most of the playing time at second base for New York while he’s out. Walker has been abysmal this season (his 42 wRC+ would rank third-worst if he qualified), but he got a late start to spring training and recorded a 114 wRC+ last year (122 the year before that). Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs an MLB-high 31 percent over the past three seasons, and hitting in arguably the league’s best lineup will also be plenty beneficial to his fantasy value. Walker owns a .240 BABIP this year, well below his career mark (.303). He reached base in 3-of-4 plate appearances Wednesday and is owned in just four percent of leagues.
• Brad Miller homered and is now batting .343/.410/.600 over his first 35 at bats with Milwaukee. He’s one season removed from hitting 30 homers in one of the toughest environments for power and now finds himself in an everyday role (Orlando Arcia has been sent to Triple-A) hitting fifth in a park that’s boosted homers for lefties more than any other than Yankee Stadium over the past three seasons. Miller is 1B/2B/SS eligible and is available in more than 95 percent of leagues. He owns a 50.8 Hard Hit% this year (league average = 34.1%).
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Closing Time: Zack Wheeler making progress
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New York Mets’ Zack Wheeler is starting to look more interesting for fantasy purposes (AP Photo).
• Zack Wheeler shut out the Pirates over seven innings with a 7:1 K:BB ratio during arguably his best start of the season Wednesday (he allowed just five hits, all singles and two of them infield), rewarding DFS owners who gambled on him in a game that called for possible rain. Jeurys Familia blew up and allowed four earned runs without recording an out, costing Wheeler a win, but it was another step in the right direction for the former prospect. Wheeler is throwing harder than ever this season (95.4 mph), owns a career-high 10.1 SwStr% and has a 9.9 K/9 over his last three starts. Wheeler’s average exit velocity (85.6 mph) ranks top-10 in baseball, and he’s still available in more than 85 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• Jesus Aguilar homered for the second straight game, giving him four long balls over the past five contests and upping his season OPS to .995. Undrafted in fantasy leagues, Aguilar has 18 homers and 52 RBI over just 207 at bats. His 160 wRC+ ranks top-10 in MLB, just ahead of Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman. Aguilar’s bat wasn’t coming out of the lineup much anyway with him hitting this well, but his spot is even safer now with Lorenzo Cain on the disabled list (allowing Eric Thames to move to the outfield, keeping newly recalled Keon Broxton still on the bench). It’s safe to say Aguilar isn’t quite this good, but he’s clearly legit (his average exit velocity is a healthy 91.6 mph, and his Barrel% ranks top-20), and he’s batting in the middle of the lineup in a strong home hitter’s park. Aguilar is going to go down as one of the best waiver wire adds of the year.
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• Shane Bieber turned in his third straight impressive start, holding the Cardinals to one run over six innings and now has a 27:4 K:BB ratio since joining the bigs. He somehow sports a 2.22 ERA despite a .382 BABIP, and this after he had a 1.38 ERA in Triple-A. Bieber is incredibly intriguing yet is still available in 45 percent of leagues. He gets the Royals and their MLB-low 82 wRC+ next time out.
• After holding the potent Yankees lineup scoreless over seven innings Wednesday, Zach Eflin sports a 1.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with a 28:6 K:BB ratio over his last five starts (30.2 innings). He entered with a 10.1 SwStr% and just keeps getting it done (Seranthony Dominguez finished the shutout with two clean innings to earn his fifth save of the season). Eflin is owned in just 31 percent of leagues.
• Madison Bumgarner recorded another positive start Wednesday when he held Colorado scoreless over seven innings. He took a no-decision and still has just one win on the season, but Bumgarner hasn’t been scored on during each of his past two starts, when he’s produced a 16:4 K:BB ratio. The schedule couldn’t have been easier over that span with home starts against the Padres and Rockies, but it’s encouraging nevertheless. Hopefully Bumgarner’s slow start was purely rust coming off the DL, but he gets a much tougher test in Coors Field next time out.
• Bumgarner was matched by Kyle Freeland, who tossed seven scoreless innings himself, and he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his past 12 starts (he gave up four in the other). The former top pick somehow ranks top-10 in average exit velocity (85.4 mph) and Hard Hit% (27.6) despite calling Coors Field home, and he’s still available in 55 percent of leagues. This Rockies/Giants game Wednesday night ended 1-0 thanks to a walk-off homer by Brandon Crawford, whose torrid stretch continues.
• Joc Pederson homered and walked twice and now sports a .900 OPS on the season. He’s been hitting leadoff for a strong Dodgers offense and is up to 11 homers over just 158 at-bats against righties yet is still available in more than 70 percent of leagues.
• Evan Gattis had two doubles with three more RBI, giving him 54 on the year. He entered June 6 hitting .219/.287/.419 yet is currently the No. 1 fantasy catcher for the season. Gattis has already set an Astros franchise record with 30 RBI in June.
• Closer Talk: Wily Peralta recorded Kansas City’s second straight save Wednesday and looks like the team’s new closer. He’s a bit of a wild card with shaky control, but Peralta is throwing extremely hard (96.6 mph) now that he’s moved to the bullpen full-time and is still available in 90 percent of leagues…The Braves didn’t have a late save situation, but Dan Winkler worked the seventh/eighth while A.J. Minter pitched the ninth in the team’s 6-5 loss…Brandon Morrow was activated from the DL, while Ryan Tepera had a rare hiccup, allowing a walk-off homer on an 0-2 pitch to Alex Bregman. Tepera’s job should be safe…Edwin Diaz is on pace to record 60 saves, two shy of the MLB record.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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MLB Stock Watch: J.T. Realmuto rising, Carlos Martinez falling
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Miami Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto highlights this week’s look at fantasy risers and fallers. (AP Photo).
STOCK UP
J.T. Realmuto: His OPS is up to .916 thanks to a big weekend in Coors Field, as his career-year continues. Realmuto is under team control through 2020 but is heavily rumored in trade talks, and while he has a prime spot in Miami’s lineup, getting out of that offense (the Marlins’ 83 wRC+ is tied for second-worst in MLB) and Marlins Park (no NL park has decreased run scoring more since the start of last season) can only help his already high fantasy value, even if he lands in just a neutral environment. Miami’s asking price is reportedly high and rightfully so given Realmuto’s strong defense, but the team is financially motivated to get a deal done. Realmuto hasn’t run as much as usual, attempting only two steals, but he ranks as the No. 110 fantasy player despite opening the season on the disabled list. Evan Gattis is the only catcher ranked higher (and just barely at No. 101), while the third most valuable fantasy backstop checks in at No. 220 overall (Yasmani Grandal). And Gary Sanchez just hit the DL. Realmuto owners have a leg up right now.
A.J. Minter: Arodys Vizcaino was recently placed on the DL, and while it’s possible it’s just a minor issue, he’s dealing with inflammation in his throwing shoulder that’s been ongoing all season. Minter hasn’t been as dominant as expected this year (1.39 WHIP), and Dan Winkler gives Atlanta another option to close (although Winkler worked the eighth while Minter pitched the ninth during the Braves’ 4-0 win Sunday). Minter’s control is still a work in progress, but the lefty throws hard (96.7 mph) and owns a 15.9 SwStr% with a minuscule 1.2 Barrel%. Vizcaino’s injury could prove serious, and the Braves keep winning games, so it’s a good situation if Minter can win the role. He projects as the team’s long-term closer.
Jose Bautista: He homered twice over the weekend and is now hitting .276/.476/.517 with more walks (22) than strikeouts (20) over 58 at bats with the Mets. In fact, only Joey Votto and Mike Trout have better on-base percentages than Bautista in June. He’s been hitting fifth in New York’s lineup, is also 3B eligible and is available in more than 90 percent of Yahoo leagues. It’s been a small sample, but Bautista has still been crushing the ball this season at age 37, recording a 94.0 mph average exit velocity (league average = 87.3) and a 50.0 Hard Hit% (league average = 34.1).
Odubel Herrera: Few players have been as hot as Herrera, who’s racked up six homers and a steal with a 1.414 OPS over the last nine games (40 at bats). He hits third in a park that’s increased home runs for left-handed batters by 20 percent over the last three seasons (fourth-highest over that span) and is just one long ball shy of last season’s total (14), as his launch angle has noticeably increased. Herrera has been a top-40 fantasy player in 2018, destroying his ADP.
Matt Olson: He’s homered three times over the past five games, and since sitting with a .676 OPS on May 13, Olson has hit .264/.342/.579 with 13 homers over 140 at bats. Olson’s homer-binge isn’t a huge surprise and should be considered fully legit given his highly impressive batted ball profile (he ranks top-15 in exit velocity, Hard Hit%, Barrel% and xwOBA). Olson still strikes out a ton, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever while using all parts of the field (his Pull% has gone from 49.6 last year to 37.8 in 2018).
STOCK DOWN
Carlos Martinez: He was pounded for seven runs (five earned) in Milwaukee during his last start and owns an 8.10 ERA and a 2.58 WHIP over 16.2 innings since returning from the disabled list, when he’s alarmingly walked 20 batters. Martinez’s velocity has fluctuated while returning from a lat injury, and whatever the reason, his owners have to be highly concerned at this point. Martinez has allowed a homer in back-to-back starts after having surrendered just one all year previously, and he gets a strong Cleveland offense next time out. It won’t be easy shopping Martinez, and it’s possible all he needs is time further removed from the injury, but all those walks are a big red flag.
Gregory Polanco: It looked like Polanco might finally live up to his potential when he was off to a huge first two weeks to start the season, but he’s slumped mightily since, hitting .208/.315/.361 over his last 183 at bats, finding himself benched each of the past three games (and four of the last five) in favor of Austin Meadows. Polanco has dramatically increased his launch angle (up to 20.9 degrees from his career mark of 10.8) and is hitting many more fly balls, trading power for batting average (his BABIP is down to .248 this season). Polanco has been a big disappointment.
Kelvin Herrera: He was traded to the Nationals and has taken a backseat to Sean Doolittle as the team’s closer, giving up two runs while working the eighth inning Sunday night. Herrera has been fantastic this year and was a great addition for the Nationals, but he lost most of his fantasy value with the trade. His owners can take solace in the fact Doolittle has never thrown 70.0 innings in a season during his career, and he hasn’t reached 55.0 since 2014.
Mike Zunino: He hit 25 homers over just 387 at bats last season, posting a .943 OPS after the All-Star break. The late season success hasn’t carried over (he feasted on September pitching with six homers and a .338/.420/.662 line), as Zunino is batting .121 with a whopping 17 strikeouts over his last 33 at bats. Zunino’s 40.5 K% would easily be the worst in baseball if he qualified (Chris Davis currently holds that distinction at 36.9%), and he’s been just the No. 19 ranked fantasy catcher this year.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Closing Time: Selling Jon Lester
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Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester’s bounce back season has featured a whole lot of luck (AP Photo).
• Jon Lester held the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings despite an ugly 1:3 K:BB ratio, marking his fourth straight start in which he’s allowed two runs or fewer and fifth straight in which he’s recorded a victory. Lester posted a 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP last season, so it seemed safe betting on a continued decline phase entering year 14 in the league. Instead, Lester sports a 2.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season despite his lowest average fastball velocity (90.8 mph) in more than a decade and has been a huge draft day profit.
Still, now looks like a good time to try to cash out, as when you combine Lester’s declining fastball with career-highs in average exit velocity (88.7 mph, which is above league average of 86.1) and Hard Hit% (37.8, which is well above league average of 30.2), there’s a pretty strong case for some forthcoming regression in a major way. Lester’s FIP is actually higher this season (4.19) than last (4.10), when his ERA was more than two runs worse, making him a sell-high candidate if possible.
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• Giancarlo Stanton hit a walk-off homer, giving Aroldis Chapman the win. Chapman hasn’t allowed a run in June, and his ERA now sits at 1.10 on the season. His velocity is a bit down by his standards, but he’s yet to allow a home run this year, and Chapman’s 18.4 SwStr% is actually above his career mark. He’s on pace to rack up seven wins and 48 saves in a career-high 75 innings.
• Mike Moustakas hit his 14th homer of the year, but he’s still recorded just one multi-hit game this month, as he entered Wednesday batting .203/.284/.305 in June. With Kelvin Herrera shipped out of town, expect Kansas City to deal Moustakas next. Getting out of Kauffman Stadium, which has suppressed home runs by 20 percent over the past three seasons (only AT&T Park is more extreme over that span), and arguably MLB’s worst lineup will help boost Moustakas’ already strong value. He’s retained last year’s increased launch angle approach in 2018.
• Odubel Herrera homered for the fourth straight game, giving him five long balls over the past six contests. He was hitting just .170/.204/.191 over 47 at bats in June before the homer binge, so hopefully Herrera wasn’t on your fantasy bench during his recent hot stretch. He continues to hit third and benefit from a home park that boosts homers for lefties like few others. Herrera is two home runs shy of last year’s total in 255 fewer at bats.
• Frankie Montas picked up his fourth win over his first five starts of the year and now sports a 2.41 ERA on the season. But that’s accompanied by an underwhelming 21:8 K:BB ratio (with a 6.5 SwStr%) over 33.2 innings, and he recorded a 4.81 FIP over nine starts in Triple-A earlier this season, so he’s not an especially intriguing fantasy add in anything but deep leagues.
• Closer Talk: Sam Dyson allowed four hits and two runs Wednesday and was pulled from San Francisco’s save opportunity, as Reyes Moronta recorded the first save of his career. Dyson likely remains the favorite to close for the Giants with Hunter Strickland out 6-8 weeks, but with Mark Melancon and Tony Watson viable alternatives, his leash isn’t long…Adam Morgan recorded the final two outs of the Phillies’ 4-3 win, as the team will continue to employ a true committee in the ninth…Kevin McCarthy pitched a scoreless ninth for the Royals (who were down 3-1) and is still the best guess to get first crack at closing in KC with Kelvin Herrera traded. McCarthy is available in more than 90 percent of Yahoo leagues…The Cubs didn’t have a save situation during a 4-0 win, but Pedro Strop, who owns a 1.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and should close while Brandon Morrow is on the DL, is still available in 85 percent of leagues…Jake Diekman picked up a save but can be ignored in fantasy leagues, as Texas closer Keone Kela wasn’t used after pitching on three of the past four days.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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MLB Stock Watch: Andrew Benintendi rising, Madison Bumgarner falling
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Boston Red Sox’s Andrew Benintendi highlights this week’s look at fantasy risers and fallers (AP Photo).
STOCK UP
Andrew Benintendi: Over his first 123 at bats this season, Benintendi had one homer with a .721 OPS. He’s since hit .348 with 11 homers, seven steals and an 1.101 OPS over 141 at bats, and he’s suddenly ranked as the No. 12 fantasy player, giving the Red Sox three hitters inside the top-eight. Benintendi has about as massive splits as you’ll ever see (he currently sports a 197 wRC+ at home versus righties and a 6 wRC+ on the road versus lefties, where he’s also hit into more double plays than homers), but it all counts the same for owners. Benintendi is 23 years old, still getting better and in a fantastic situation batting atop a loaded Boston lineup in a terrific hitter’s park. He’s running far more than he ever did in the minors (he’s 12-for-13 on SB attempts this year) while also the rare help in batting average (league-wide BA is the lowest it’s been since 1972), so there’s every reason to believe he’ll be a top-15 type fantasy asset for years to come.
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Anibal Sanchez: Sanchez had recorded ERAs of 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41 over the previous three seasons before this one, so it’s understandable fantasy owners remain skeptical (he’s still just 23 percent owned). But Sanchez looks dramatically better now back in the National League, as he’s sporting a 1.93 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 32 strikeouts over 37.1 innings with Atlanta. He’s been quite fortunate (.206 BABIP, 90.3 LOB%) but that can be said for all pitchers with an ERA so low. And he deserves some credit with an 83.6 mph average exit velocity and a 21.6 Hard Hit% that are both well below league average (87.0 mph and 33.2%). Sanchez is back on the fantasy radar, and it helps pitching for a team with a top-10 defense (in UZR) and offense (in wRC+).
Jason Heyward: He was batting .227/.315/.340 over 97 at bats before landing on the disabled list with a concussion but has hit .307/.347/.489 over 88 at bats since returning. Add it together, and you get a league average hitter (101 wRC+) this season, which is certainly big progress for Heyward since joining Chicago. He no longer runs, and we’ve seen hot stretches from him in the past before quickly slumping again (Heyward also sports the biggest discrepancy in MLB between OPS with runners on (1.054) versus empty (.495)), but his launch angle, xwOBA (.364) and Hard Hit% (43.2) are all easily career highs, so there are some encouraging signs Heyward can go back to being a useful fantasy commodity, especially while batting second in a strong Cubs lineup. He’s still available in more than 90 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Brandon Nimmo: He hit two more homers with a steal over a weekend series in Chase Field, giving him 10 long balls and seven swipes over 168 at bats on the year (with a strong .402 OBP). Nimmo’s increased his launch angle from 9.6 degrees last season to 15.4 this year, so the jump in homers from his minor league numbers should be taken seriously. He’s especially valuable in daily transaction leagues, as he’s recorded a 1.093 OPS with nine homers over 122 ABs against right-handers. Nimmo remains available in half of leagues and starts a four-game trip in Coors Field on Monday.
Luis Severino: After another dominant performance over the weekend, Severino hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his past five starts or more than three runs in any of his past 12 outings. Despite pitching in the AL East and a home park that’s boosted home runs by an MLB-high 31 percent over the past three seasons, Severino sports a 2.09 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with a 118:25 K:BB ratio and has twice as many wins (10) as homers allowed. You don’t need me to tell you Severino is really good, but with only a handful of aces these days, he’s emerged as a true first round fantasy asset.
STOCK DOWN
Madison Bumgarner: A slow start could be expected given Bumgarner missed the first nine weeks of the season with a broken finger, and his velocity has historically been down in the early parts of seasons (like most pitchers), but owners have to be concerned after he’s posted a 4.67 ERA with a 9:5 K:BB ratio over his first three starts back from the DL. Bumgarner hasn’t been happy with his strike zone in a couple of the games, but he’s yet to record more than three punchouts in any of the outings, and two of those opponents rank in the top-half in K% this season. His average fastball velocity (90.5 mph) is a career-low, and he’s barely producing any swings and misses. Hopefully it’s just a blip, but Bumgarner did have a pretty crazy heavy workload from 2011-2017. Still, if you want to buy low and chalk up the slow start to his version of spring training, make offers now before his next start, which comes at home against the Padres.
Ken Giles: He’s pitched 3.2 scoreless innings over his last three appearances and actually has a 24:2 K:BB ratio on the season, but Hector Rondon recorded Houston’s save Sunday, giving him five over the past 11 days. Giles, who worked the eighth inning Sunday in front of Rondon, has one save in all of June, so his job as the team’s clear closer appears finished.
Jesus Aguilar: He homered two more times over the weekend and has been a revelation at the plate this season, owning a .917 OPS. But Eric Thames is back from his thumb injury, and he too homered twice over the weekend and has been even better this season (.973 OPS) and is likely the favorite for platoon at bats against right-handers at the moment. It’s a situation that will likely work itself out eventually (the Brewers also have an outfielder on their bench right now who hit 30 homers with 15 stolen bases last year), and if Aguilar keeps hitting like he has Milwaukee will find a way to get his bat in the lineup, but right now his value takes a hit with Thames’ return.
Jonathan Schoop: He’s followed up a career-best season by batting .212 with a 67 wRC+ that ranks No. 150 among hitters. Schoop’s strikeouts and walks are about the same as usual, but he’s hit the ball with far less authority. He did homer and take four walks over the weekend, but he has a long way to go. Schoop was drafted as a borderline top-five fantasy second baseman, yet he’s hitting .188/.224/.361 against righties this season.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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MLB Stock Watch: Paul Goldschmidt rising, Dallas Keuchel falling
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Arizona Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt highlights this week’s look at fantasy risers and fallers (AP Photo).
STOCK UP
Paul Goldschmidt: He collected four homers with nine RBI over the weekend in Colorado, and no doubt Coors Field was a big help. But Goldschmidt had racked up seven hits in the previous two games in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, and he entered Sunday with a 1.556 OPS over his last 10 contests. The perennial early fantasy pick was bound to rebound from a horrendous start that saw his OPS as low as .699 as recently as May 26, and the bounce back is happening fast. Goldschmidt’s Statcast numbers are just fine (in fact his Barrel% (15.1) is a career high, and his average HR has traveled a healthy 410 feet), but his strikeouts are way up, as he’s struggled with high velocity while hitting just .160/.326/.274 at home, where the humidor has had a significant impact decreasing offense. He’s no longer a first round fantasy player considering his new environment, but Goldschmidt can still return round two/three type value from here on out. At minimum, he certainly has more trade value than he did a week ago.
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Seth Lugo: He turned in a strong outing during his second start of the year Sunday night, holding the Yankees to just two hits with an 8:0 K:BB ratio over six scoreless innings. Lugo is only 12 percent owned in Yahoo leagues, but Sunday in primetime marked the first time the Yankees had been shut out this season, so his ownership should shoot up fast. And rightfully so, as Lugo now sits with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP on the year and could get a longer look in the starting rotation now. He was able to maintain this season’s increased velocity during Sunday’s start and is throwing a curveball more than ever with great results. Lugo has always had crazy spin rates, hinting at nice upside, so he’s well worth adding in fantasy leagues. He has a 29:1 K:BB ratio over the last 26.1 innings.
Hector Rondon: I’ve written about Rondon a couple of times recently, but he’s worth mentioning yet again after recording his third save in five days while striking out the side in a perfect ninth Sunday. He’s still available in 75 percent of leagues.
Juan Soto: He’s 19 years old and hitting .328/.431/.541 through the first 61 at bats of his career, walking as often as he’s struck out while facing major league pitching for the first time. Soto’s 167 wRC+ would rank top-five in MLB if he qualified. His average launch angle has been just 3.9 degrees (league average is 10.8), which has led to a 1.77 GB/FB ratio, but that’s quibbling, as he’s rewarding owners who bid aggressively. Meanwhile with Adam Eaton back, Michael A. Taylor, who’s on pace to finish with 13 homers and 44 steals but is hitting just .219/.285/.381, might soon lose playing time.
Andrew McCutchen: He was hitting .364/.348/.705 over the past 10 games before receiving Sunday off, although that 44 AB sample also featured him posting a 10:0 K:BB ratio. Still, McCutchen’s bat heating up is hardly unexpected given his career-high 91.4 mph average exit velocity and a strong 44.2 Hard Hit% that’s well above league average (34.1%), and it’s possible his slow start could also be attributed to getting accustomed to a new team and city. Expect further improvement from McCutchen’s bat moving forward.
STOCK DOWN
Dallas Keuchel: He’s allowed four runs or more in four of his last five starts, a stretch in which he’s posted a 7.33 ERA over 27.0 innings. Keuchel’s season FIP sits at 4.19, and his SwStr% (8.8) is his worst since his rookie season back in 2012. His lowly 6.99 K/9 rate is especially alarming given the continued leaguewide increase in strikeouts, and he allowed 13 hits (in just 4.1 innings) Sunday against a Rangers offense that entered with the third-worst OPS in the American League, somehow escaping falling to 3-9 while pitching for a dominant 42-25 Astros team that easily leads MLB in run differential. Keuchel has been maddeningly inconsistent since winning the Cy Young in 2015, and note last year’s average exit velocity (84.5 mph) and launch angle (-1.6 degrees) are both glaringly different this season (88.7 and 3.5).
Rafael Devers: He’s been one of the bigger disappointments in baseball, recording a .688 OPS and ranking outside the top-300 fantasy players despite hitting in one of MLB’s best lineups and hitter’s parks. In fact, Devers’ 0.2 WAR ranks No. 260, sandwiched between Danny Valencia and Adeiny Hecharavarria. Devers is just 21 years old and has managed 19 homers over 457 career at bats while severely underwhelming, so I’d still be buying stock moving forward. His average exit velocity (92.2 mph) ranks top-20 in MLB.
Miguel Sano: He’s missed time with injuries and is hitting only .206/.271/.418 during a hugely disappointing fourth season in the league. Sano has a .510 OPS against lefties after recording a .992 mark versus them last season, and his already alarmingly high K% has shot up to a whopping 40.6, which is significantly higher than the next worse (Chris Davis at 36.8%), as only a DL stint might ultimately prevent Sano from breaking the MLB strikeout record this season.
Brad Brach: He was hit hard for three runs while recording just one out during his last appearance, and his WHIP now sits at 1.76 on the year. Brach has an impressive (and career best) 15.7 SwStr%, but his control is simply too shaky to be an elite reliever, and Zach Britton will soon return from the DL and immediately become a threat to reclaim Baltimore’s closer’s role.
Michael Conforto: He doesn’t have a hit in more than a week and owns a .694 OPS on the year. Conforto’s 146 wRC+ last season would’ve tied with Kris Bryant for 10th in baseball had he qualified, and yet now the Mets are considering demoting him to the minors. Conforto’s surgery to repair a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder that he’s repeatedly dislocated always sounded serious, and with his exit velocity (86.5 mph) and Hard Hit% (32.3) so down compared to last year (89.1 mph and 43.5%), it’s hard to conclude he’s feeling totally healthy again. Either way, fantasy owners are fed up with Conforto, who’s been dropped to sixth in New York’s lineup after opening the season hitting leadoff.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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MLB Stock Watch: Blake Snell rising, Luis Castillo falling
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STOCK UP
Blake Snell: He was dominant Sunday, recording 12 strikeouts with no walks over six scoreless innings, tying an AL record by fanning the first seven batters of the game. Snell induced 17 swinging strikes and now sits with a 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the season despite six of his last eight outings coming on the road and pitching in the AL East. His average fastball velocity (95.3 mph) is up a full tick from last season, as is his slider (87.4). Snell’s SwStr% (13.1), average exit velocity (85.7 mph) and Hard Hit% (24.1) all rank top-12 among starters in MLB, and the biggest news is his BB% is down to 7.7, as Snell’s improved control during last year’s second half has carried into 2018. Snell’s terrific start appears real, so treat him as a truly elite fantasy starter moving forward.
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Mike Foltynewicz: After tossing a complete game shutout Friday while allowing just three baserunners with 11 strikeouts, his ERA is suddenly down to 2.22 on the year. Foltynewicz’s strong velocity is up even more this season (96.6 mph), as is his K% (28.2). His already shaky control has actually been even worse (10.6 BB%), so the expected regression coming with any ERA that low might hit even harder. Still, Foltynewicz was practically free at drafts, and he’s been the No. 16 fantasy SP so far who’s clearly making major improvements. His slider has become one of the very best pitches in baseball.
Matt Olson: He entered the last day of May with a disappointing .236/.321/.417 line but has four homers and nine RBI over four games since. Olson’s average exit velocity (94.7 mph) and Hard Hit% (58.8) both rank top-five in MLB, so the recent outburst is hardly a surprise, and plenty more should be expected to come. After hitting two doubles with 24 homers as a rookie last season, Olson has 12 of each in 2018.
Eddie Rosario: He hit three homers Sunday, giving him four long balls over the last two games and 13 on the year. Rosario is hitting .317/.352/.573 with five steals, 36 runs scored and 40 RBI, as he’s been one of the bigger fantasy difference makers so far. He increased his launch angle during the second half of last year and has continued to do so with great success in 2018.
Michael Wacha: He lost a no-hitter in the ninth again Sunday, but Wacha’s ERA and WHIP are down to 2.41 and 1.10 after an ugly start to the season that saw him dropped in many fantasy leagues. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in nine straight starts and has quietly been a top-50 fantasy player this season.
Nathan Eovaldi: Making his first start since 2016, Eovaldi tossed six scoreless (and hitless) innings last week, and while he owns a pedestrian 4.18 ERA for his career, Eovaldi is once again getting fantasy owners’ attention, thanks in no small part to his fastball, which reached 100 mph during his first start back. Eovaldi looked healthy, and you never know when the lightbulb will turn on, and he could find himself in a better situation after the trade deadline. Eovaldi is still available in more than 85 percent of Yahoo leagues.
STOCK DOWN
Luis Castillo: It looked like he had turned the corner after a poor start to the season but has since allowed four runs in back-to-back starts (coming in Petco Park and the humidor-installed Chase Field), raising his ERA and WHIP to 5.64 and 1.45 on the year. Castillo has yet to throw seven innings in a single start this season, and his Hard Hit% is way up (41.3 compared to 30.1 last year. League average is 34.0), while his velocity is way down (a glaring 2.2 mph, albeit still a strong 95.3). Castillo is 25 years old and was too impressive as a rookie not to expect a bounce back (his 14.5 SwStr% ranks No. 6 among starters, one spot ahead of Gerrit Cole), but he’s been a massive disappointment so far.
Hunter Strickland: It’s by no fault of his own, as Strickland has pitched well in the closer’s role this season, owning a 2.42 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP while converting 12-of-14 save opportunities. But Mark Melancon is back from the DL, somewhat surprisingly looking fully recovered from a forearm injury that he’d been struggling with to overcome. Melancon wasn’t very good last year (although that could be due to pitching through the injury), and his velocity wasn’t great during his debut, but he struck out the side and is signed to a $62 million contract through 2020. From 2013-2016, Melancon had a 1.80 ERA over 290.0 innings, so expect him to regain San Francisco’s closer’s role if he looks healthy over his next few outings.
Cody Bellinger: Scott Pianowski downgraded Bellinger in his latest Shuffle Up, and it’s hard to argue against it. Bellinger is certainly better than this, but he’s not hitting the ball with nearly the same authority as last year while striking out at a similarly high rate. He was an early fantasy pick, and there’s talk of sending him to the minors. Interestingly, Yu Darvish and Ken Giles have also carried over their World Series struggles into 2018.
Hector Neris: He’s allowed an earned run in four straight appearances and has recorded one save since May 10. Neris pitched the eighth inning of a 6-1 game Sunday after he uncorked three wild pitches during his previous outing. Meanwhile, teammate Seranthony Dominguez has emerged as a potentially dominant shutdown reliever. Neris is still owned in 70 percent of leagues but looks droppable at this point, unfortunately.
Felipe Vazquez: He was blown up for five runs (four earned) without recording an out during his last appearance, which is especially concerning given he’s been dealing with forearm discomfort. Vazquez owners can’t do much now other than remain patient and hope he’s healthy, and there isn’t a clear alternative to close in Pittsburgh (Kyle Crick has pitched the highest leverage situations lately, while Richard Rodriguez sports a 32:3 K:BB ratio and is a deep sleeper for saves down the road).
Giancarlo Stanton: I had no problem if someone wanted to take Stanton as high as No. 2 in drafts entering the year, yet he’s currently ranked outside the top-80. Stanton ended an 11-game homerless drought by hitting a long ball over the weekend, and he could go on a monster HR tear at any moment, but his 30.7 K% is bottom-five in MLB (and his worst mark since his rookie campaign), and most alarming, Stanton has continued his trend of hitting more and more ground balls.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Closing Time: Talking Jake Arrieta and more
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Philadelphia Phillies’ Jake Arrieta throws a gem and a look around Tuesday’s fantasy baseball action (AP Photo).
• Jake Arrieta picked up the win Tuesday by tossing seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, which was encouraging considering he entered with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP with an ugly 6:8 K:BB ratio over 19.1 innings on the road this season. Despite the extreme splits, he now sports a 2.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the year, but his K/9 (6.17) and K% (17.0) are both extremely underwhelming (especially in today’s climate) and well below his usual marks. In fact, Arrieta came into Tuesday’s start with an alarming 6.6 SwStr% that ranked No. 86 out of 89 qualified starters.
He does an excellent job of inducing weak contact and groundballs, so a total collapse isn’t likely forthcoming, but Arrieta’s 4.3 HR/FB% seems especially fluky given only Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs more than Citizens Bank Park over the past three years, and the Phillies’ poor defense doesn’t help either. Arrieta’s coming off another strong outing and now sports a 0.90 ERA this month, but there are real warning signs suggesting you should see if you can sell high.
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• Michael Brantley went 3-for-4 with a homer, extending his hitting streak to 18 games and giving him a .343/.380/.573 season line. He’s back hitting the ball hard again and looks healthier than he has in years while cutting his strikeouts way down. Brantley is still likely a bigger injury risk than most, but it appears he’s back to being a star again, in which I admit I was skeptical. Cleveland entered having scored 24 more runs than any other team in baseball in May.
• Juan Soto went 3-for-3 with a walk and a steal. The rookie didn’t run much in the minors, and the Baltimore battery of Dylan Bundy and Chance Cisco was also abused for two bags by Michael Taylor, but Soto now sports a 5:5 K:BB ratio and a 195 wRC+ over his first nine games. He’s 19 years old.
• Daniel Palka had two hits for the third time in his last four games and homered out of the cleanup spot. The rookie is a batting average risk thanks to a high strikeout rate, but he has decent power potential and is available in more than 95 percent of leagues. The White Sox’s home park has increased home runs for left-handers by 22 percent over the last three seasons, which is the third-most in MLB over that span.
• Jeimer Candelario homered for the third time in five games since coming off the disabled list, and he’s now batting .274/.367/.530 on the year and locked in as Detroit’s No. 3 hitter. Comerica has continued to play as a big hitter’s park this year, and Candelario isn’t even owned in a quarter of leagues.
• Eddie Rosario, who entered with a .299-32-98-13 line over the last year, had another three hits. He’s carried over last season’s change in the second half, when he really increased his launch angle, and it sure seems to be working.
• Evan Gattis’ hot streak continued, as he hit another homer and is up to nine RBI over his past five games. He picked a good time to raise his OPS 100 points over the past week, as he’s remained a regular since J.D. Davis was called up.
• Chris Devenski was given a save opportunity, but he blew it by allowing Brett Gardner‘s second homer of the game. Devenski had been dominant this season, and Ken Giles is tough to trust right now, but it remains to be seen who gets the next save chance in Houston. It’d be shocking if the Astros don’t trade for a closer this summer.
• I talked about Brandon Nimmo during my latest pickups piece, and he added two steals hitting leadoff Tuesday night. He sports a .271/.422/.533 line with five homers, five steals and 22 runs scored over 107 at bats this season and is still available in nearly 80 percent of leagues.
• Asdrubal Cabrera knocked two homers, and his current OPS (.903) is nearly 100 points higher than his previous career-best mark (.810). He’s on pace to finish with 31 homers, 94 runs scored and 106 RBI. The 32-year-old is 2B/SS/3B eligible and was a relative afterthought during most drafts.
• Felipe Vazquez pitched a scoreless inning, which was good to see after he blew his third straight save Sunday and then reported forearm discomfort. He might be someone to shop right now.
• Jeff Samardzija left after the first inning with a tight right shoulder, while Buster Posey hit just his third long ball of the year (and first away from home). Evan Longoria also went deep twice, and he’s already halfway to last year’s HR total of 20 and somehow has a healthy 113 wRC+ despite hitting .149/.167/.277 with a 16:1 K:BB ratio over the first dozen games with his new team in San Francisco.
• Matt Carpenter homered for the third time in the last four games and added two walks, as St. Louis’ patience with the veteran has paid off. He’s raised his OPS 220 points over the last two weeks and has been back hitting leadoff.
• Kenta Maeda was pulled in the second inning with a right hip strain, burning many DFS owners in what was a terrific matchup. It’s been dangerous to be a Dodgers starting pitcher this season.
• Sergio Romo recorded his first save of the year (and his first since 2016), as he’s apparently toggling between starting and closing. Romo gave up two runs, has a 6.33 ERA on the year and isn’t a great bet for further saves given his struggles against lefties, as Tampa Bay’s ninth-inning situation remains up in the air.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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In Case You Missed It: Braves comeback, Juan Soto called up and more
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Atlanta Braves had a big comeback and a look around the rest of the weekend’s fantasy baseball action (AP Photo).
• The Braves were down five runs with one out yet ended up scoring six in the ninth (without an extra-base hit), as Atlanta won a 10-9 thriller Sunday. Brad Ziegler was the main victim, giving up another four runs before getting pulled, and his ERA now sits at 7.20 on the year. Drew Steckenrider has been hit hard lately (as has Tayron Guerrero), and his ERA is up to 5.85, so it’d be surprising if Kyle Barraclough (1.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) doesn’t overtake Miami’s closer’s role now. He’s still available in nearly 80 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• Juan Soto was the weekend’s biggest fantasy news, as the mega prospect got the call just in time for Sunday night FAAB bids. I’m on board with those who were aggressive in acquiring his services, and for more on the young phenom, Andy Behrens has us covered. Soto is batting sixth and playing left field during his first MLB start Monday.
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• Seranthony Dominguez picked up a save by tossing two scoreless innings Saturday and was another popular FAAB addition over the weekend. Hector Neris hasn’t been scored on in four of his last five appearances, but he’s been shaky this season (4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 20:9 K:BB ratio), and while Philadelphia has a few options in its bullpen, none are more intriguing than the flame-throwing Dominguez, who needs to improve his control but has a bunch of K upside. Philadelphia’s bullpen remains in flux, but there’s good saves potential if someone secures the closer’s job for the wild-card leading team that’s about to open a six-game homestand.
• Fantasy owners searching for saves can also look to Blake Parker, who recorded one Sunday and could easily emerge as the Angels’ closer from here on out. He’s got a 6:0 K:BB ratio over his last three appearances and is owned in 36 percent of leagues…Moreover, Nate Jones picked up a save Saturday, as he’s recorded the team’s last two and looks like the favorite to continue to do so. He’s owned in just 28 percent of leagues.
• Gary Sanchez had a four-hit game with two homers Saturday and even while batting just .225 in a disappointing first quarter of the season is still on pace to finish with 45 homers, 102 runs scored and 124 RBI while playing by far the scarcest fantasy position. The difference between his wOBA (.362) and xwOBA (.417) is -0.55, which ranks top-25 in MLB. He also ranks No. 6 in Brls/Pa, and the five above him are all first basemen or outfielders. In other words, buy him now before his already sky-high fantasy value increases even further. And for all the flack Sanchez gets for his defensive work, he’s consistently graded highly in “Pop Time” and arm strength.
• Mike Trout homered Friday and Saturday and then walked three times with two stolen bases Sunday, capping off a big weekend. His 1.072 OPS is a career high, and he’s been successful on all 10 of his SB attempts this year, as Trout is running again.
• Sergio Romo had an eventful weekend, becoming the pitcher with the fourth-most appearances ever before making his first MLB start Saturday, and he liked it so much, he started again Sunday. He now owns a 0.00 ERA with a 23.1 K/9 mark while starting yet is still searching for his first career win when doing so.
• Ian Happ homered during both games of Saturday’s doubleheader and then walked three times Sunday, giving him a whopping nine walks over the weekend, as his season OBP suddenly sits at .361. Not bad for someone who’s seemingly been a huge disappointment, and Happ is also quietly hitting .300/.364/.533 against lefties (in a limited 30 AB sample), which is encouraging. He’s a flyball hitter (it’s pretty wild Happ has a .415 BABIP with a 0.48 GB/FB ratio) who strikes out a lot (40.6 K%), so he’s going to be especially streaky, and his latest hot stretch should secure Happ’s role again in Chicago’s everyday lineup. Make sure he wasn’t dropped in your league when things weren’t going so well not that long ago.
• John Hicks homered while hitting cleanup Sunday and is up to .302/.352/.542 on the year. It’s unclear how much he’ll play once Miguel Cabrera returns, but it’s not like Detroit is overwhelmed with offensive options. Hicks is playing well, also catcher eligible and available in 36 percent of leagues.
• Tyler Austin homered twice Sunday, giving him three long balls and seven RBI over his last three contests. Greg Bird is due to return from his ankle injury sometime this week, but Austin is quietly on pace to hit 30 homers with 87 RBI (in just 92 ABs) yet is owned in only 10 percent of leagues.
• Jack Flaherty was dominant Sunday, holding the Phillies to just one run with a 13:1 K:BB ratio over 7.2 innings while recording his first win of the season. Adam Wainwright (elbow) looks finished, so Flaherty is going to be a fixture in St. Louis’ starting rotation moving forward, and his ownership numbers (46%) figure to continue to rise fast. He’s an obvious must-add if he’s somehow available in your league.
• Franmil Reyes came out of nowhere and demanded a call up after hitting .346/.442/.738 with 14 homers over 130 at bats in Triple-A this season (he entered the year typically not listed as a top-30 prospect for San Diego), but he’s just 2-for-17 with six Ks during the start to his MLB career. Wil Myers (oblique) is taking longer than expected to return, but Travis Jankowski is playing well (and not a bad pickup if you need stolen bases), and it figures the team will continue to let Manuel Margot play through his struggles, so Reyes needs to start hitting fast.
• In case you missed it, I covered Mac Williamson, Joe Musgrove, Jesus Agular, Austin Meadows and others in a pickups column over the weekend.
• Lance McCullers held Cleveland scoreless with just one hit over seven innings Sunday, as he continues to use his changeup more with success.
• Freddy Peralta followed up his impressive MLB debut by walking six batters in a rough start in Minnesota, and the young righty has since been optioned back to Triple-A.
• Rich Hill (blister) left Saturday’s start after just two pitches much to the delight of those who used him in DFS, and his absence is going to be at least a month. Alex Wood then departed Sunday’s start, but LA says it’s just cramps and not serious. Meanwhile, Ross Stripling posted a 9:0 K:BB ratio during the team’s other game Saturday, and he has 40 strikeouts with a 2.08 ERA over 34.2 innings on the year and should now be locked in Los Angeles’ starting rotation. He’s owned in just 13 percent of leagues.
• Patrick Corbin held the Mets to two runs over 5.1 innings Saturday but walked four batters for the second time in three starts, and his velocity has been way down recently.
• Odubel Herrera‘s on-base streak ended at 45 games after he went 0-for-4 on Sunday (while somehow reaching base), while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just keeps on hitting, and Jordan Hicks reached 105 mph.
• J.D. Martinez hit two more homers and would cost a top-10 pick in fantasy drafts held today, while J.D. Davis got recalled by Houston and could see regular playing time at DH with Evan Gattis playing so poorly (77 wRC+). He was crushing Triple-A pitching (.415/.473/.654) and is worth adding in fantasy leagues, where he’s currently available in more than 95 percent.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Fantasy Baseball Pickups: Jordan Lyles and others to add
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San Diego Padres starting pitcher Jordan Lyles is getting a chance to start (AP Photo).
Jordan Lyles: Expectations weren’t high when Lyles was moved into the starting rotation, but after two starts in which he’s allowed just one run with a 16:2 K:BB ratio over 12.1 innings, he certainly has fantasy owners’ attention. Lyles carried a perfect game into the eighth inning of his last start and suddenly sports a 2.53 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP on the year. Petco Park has oddly played like a hitter’s park so far, something that will almost certainly regress, and he’s throwing harder than ever, especially his curveball, which has been one of the fastest in baseball. Lyles’ xwOBA (0.266) is the 11th lowest among all pitchers (minimum 100 PAs), and his 11.3 SwStr% is easily a career high, while his ownership (24%) is too low.
Jedd Gyorko: He was already starting to see more regular playing time, and he’s locked in a starting role now that Paul DeJong is out with a fractured hand. Gyorko has clubbed 50 homers over the last two seasons while never playing in 130 games, and he’s posted a .905 OPS in 2018. His average exit velocity (89.5 mph) and Hard Hit% (40.4) are both career highs, and he’s eligible at three positions (1B/2B/3B). Gyorko has been hitting fifth in the Cardinals’ lineup lately, and he’s still available in more than 75 percent of Yahoo leagues.
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Kyle Freeland: The former top-10 pick has been on a roll, going 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP with a 32:9 K:BB ratio over his last five starts (34.0 innings). He’s yet to throw even 20.0 innings in Coors Field this season, and calling that home could be a problem during the summer months, but he’s still under owned at just 37 percent. He’s attacking hitters more up in the zone with great results, giving the Rockies another intriguing arm. It’s remarkable Colorado is in the wild card hunt with a team wRC+ (75) that ranks last in MLB. It’s thanks to their FIP (3.96) that’s one of the dozen best in baseball, as their pitching has carried their hitting.
Austin Meadows: The former top prospect got called up by the Pirates when Starling Marte was placed on the DL and will be the team’s everyday center fielder as a result. Meadows disappointed last year but was dealing with injuries and was once highly regarded, so grab him if you’re looking for help in stolen bases. The No. 9 pick in the 2013 draft, Meadows just turned 23 years old and had a 111 wRC+ with one home run and eight steals over 126 at-bats in Triple-A this season.
Jesus Aguilar: He hit two homers Friday, reaching base four times while batting third in Milwaukee’s lineup. Aguilar should remain a starter for the Brewers with both Eric Thames and Ryan Braun on the disabled list, and he’s quietly hitting .326/.396/.558 over 95 at bats on the year. Aguilar finds himself in a good spot, batting in between lefties Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw in a park that’s increased homers by 16 percent (top-five in MLB) over the last three seasons, so it’s a gift he’s still available in more than 90 percent of leagues.
Joe Musgrove: He wasn’t great during his latest rehab start but still sports a 17:2 K:BB ratio over 17.2 innings and looks ready to join Pittsburgh’s rotation soon. It’s unclear if Musgrove is truly recovered from his shoulder issues, but he’s got enough upside to pick up in fantasy leagues to find out, especially now that he’s in the National League.
Mac Williamson: He looked like a possible breakout candidate before suffering a concussion that’s sidelined Williamson for nearly a month now, but his return appears imminent. An everyday job in San Francisco’s outfield (as well as a prominent spot in the lineup) is certainly there for Williamson to take, and he sure looked like an improved hitter with a retooled swing while blasting three homers in five games (and recording a 295 wRC+ in Triple-A) before going down.
Dustin Pedroia: He’s playing rehab games and should be back with Boston before the end of the month. Pedroia is no longer the hitter he once was and is always a risk to suffer another injury, but he’s one season removed from scoring 105 runs, and he had 62 RBI (with a 48:49 K:BB ratio) over just 406 at bats in 2017 even in a down year. The Red Sox lead MLB in runs scored and OPS, so Pedroia will find himself in a good situation once he returns.
Freddy Peralta: He struck out a whopping 13 batters in Coors Field during his MLB debut, making it impossible for Milwaukee not to give him another turn in the rotation. Peralta threw his fastball 91.8% of the time during his dominant start, and while his velocity is underwhelming (91.4 mph), his deceptive delivery and long stride make it appear faster to hitters. Peralta is a bit of a wild card but well worth adding after such an impressive first start, in baseball’s toughest environment no less.
Nick Pivetta: He has a 3.72 season ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and has recorded an 18:1 K:BB ratio over his last two starts yet is owned in just 38 percent of leagues. Pivetta tied a career high with 11 Ks during his last outing and has rebounded nicely after a poor two-start stretch a couple weeks back. His average fastball velocity (94.4 mph) is one of the highest in baseball.
C.J. Cron: His three-game homer (and 10-game hitting) streak came to an end Friday, but Cron is suddenly on pace to finish with a .286-102-41-102 line. His ownership numbers have been climbing fast lately, but make sure he’s not somehow still available in your league.
Trevor Cahill: He’s back in action and held his own (three runs over five innings) during his return from the DL in a tough assignment in Boston. Cahill’s 28.6 K% this season would rank No. 12 among starters if he qualified, and he benefits from a pitcher’s park, yet he’s still available in more than 80 percent of leagues.
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In case you missed it: Willson Contreras' hot bat and more
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Chicago Cubs’ Willson Contreras is on a tear and a look around the rest of the weekend’s fantasy baseball action (AP Photo).
• Willson Contreras had three homers, 10 RBI and a steal over the weekend series against the White Sox, and the backstop has raised his OPS nearly 200 points over the last five contests. Given that Gary Sanchez ranks as the only catcher who’s a top-100 fantasy player so far this year, Contreras could prove to be a huge difference maker if he keeps hitting like he’s capable of. He ranks 16th in Barrel% (13.1), and Wrigley Field should be more of a hitter’s park as the summer heats up. Patient Contreras owners are going to reap major rewards going forward.
• Freddy Peralta made a memorable MLB debut Sunday, when he recorded a whopping 13 strikeouts over 5.2 shutout innings in Coors Field, becoming just the fifth pitcher since 1908 to fan that many in his first start. He throws his fastball a ton, and the velocity isn’t overwhelming, but it’s deceptive thanks to his long stride. Peralta had control issues in the minors, but the 21-year-old clearly has a bunch of strikeout upside, and he’s owned in just one percent of leagues right now.
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• Danny Duffy was rocked for nine earned runs over 3.1 innings in Cleveland, and he’s now served up nine homers over his last five (abbreviated) starts. His SwStr% is way down, as is his velocity, so he’s droppable at this point.
• Francisco Lindor went 7-for-8 with two homers over Saturday and Sunday, and his slow start is now a distant memory. The star shortstop has nine long balls and is batting .458/.500/.958 over his last 72 at bats.
• Yasiel Puig finally homered Sunday, his first of the season (during his 101st AB of the year). He hasn’t played well, but Puig’s BABIP is .250 despite a career-high in exit velocity (91.3 mph). That’s not painting a perfect picture, as his Hard Hit% is down, so clearly he’s not hitting smarter. Still, Puig is 27 years old and posted a .907 OPS with 18 homers/steals over 202 at bats after the All-Star break last year, so buy low if it’s still possible.
• Trevor Story hit two homers Saturday and is taking home/road splits to the extreme, as he owns a 1.338 OPS in Coors Field and a .524 OPS on the road this season. He does have two homers and five steals away from home, and his speed is underrated.
• Charlie Morton posted a 14:0 K:BB ratio while allowing just one run over seven innings against the Rangers, and there are no signs of his major breakout slowing down anytime soon. Morton’s average fastball velocity (96.1 mph) and SwStr% (13.8) are both far above his career marks (92.2 mph, 8.4%), and I’m beginning to think the Astros have a good starting rotation.
• Dylan Bundy pitched a gem Sunday and ended a three-start stretch in which he posted a 19.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Over his other six starts this year, he has a 1.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 38.2 innings.
• Luis Castillo held the Dodgers to three runs (two earned) and has allowed two or fewer in each of his last three starts, when he’s posted a 22:2 K:BB ratio. His owners can relax again.
• Jacob deGrom lasted just one inning during his return to the rotation, as he was pulled after throwing 45 pitches. The team states it was precautionary, but considering he’s dealing with a hyperextended right elbow, fantasy owners certainly have the right to panic. The Mets started 11-1 but are 2-9 in their last 11 games.
��� Jonathan Gray had “the most 2018 line yet” Sunday, when he struck out 10 and walked one yet allowed 10 hits and six runs. Still, even after the outing, Gray is sporting a 2.49 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with a 35:4 K:BB ratio over his last four starts (25.1 innings).
• The humidor couldn’t contain this impressive Bryce Harper homer, while Mookie Betts made this terrific play in what’s turning into a special season for him.
• Sean Newcomb has now pitched 20 straight scoreless innings after beating the Marlins on Sunday (during his fourth straight road start), as the rookie continues to pitch well. Among starters, Newcomb ranks No. 5 in Brls/PA.
• Robinson Cano suffered a broken right hand and is likely looking at a long DL stint. There isn’t an obvious replacement for fantasy owners, although those who have Dee Gordon are likely hoping he stays in the outfield, as his bat has thrived while playing there this season.
• Edubray Ramos recorded the Phillies’ save Sunday and now holds a 1.13 ERA with 20 strikeouts over 16.0 innings on the year. Hector Neris has taken a loss in two of his last four appearances, and Ramos is available in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues, so grab him if you’re searching for saves.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Fantasy Baseball Pickups: Ryon Healy and others to add
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Seattle Mariners’ Ryon Healy continues to rake since coming off the disabled list (AP).
Ryon Healy: He’s batting .333/.358/.725 with six homers over 51 at bats since coming off the disabled list and has recently been moved to fifth in an underrated Mariners lineup that’s tied for second in MLB with a team 109 wRC+. Healy ranks top-35 in Brls/PA (9.2), as he’s both hitting the ball harder than ever as well as cutting way back on his chase percentage (28.0% this year compared to 34.8% career), which is a pretty good combo. Healy sports a .182 BABIP against lefties yet a 125 wRC+ and is owned in just 40 percent of Yahoo leagues, a number that’s been climbing lately and should only continue to do so. Healy is also eligible at third base, so go get him before it’s too late.
Steven Souza Jr.: He’s back after missing the first five weeks of the season dealing with a pectoral strain, so it’s no surprise Souza Jr. is off to a slow start at the plate, which has resulted in him being available in more than 60 percent of leagues. He went 30/16 in fewer than 150 games last season in a tough hitting environment in Tampa Bay, although to be fair, the humidor has greatly reduced exit velocity at Chase Field, which has quickly turned into an extreme pitcher’s park. Still, Souza is walking a lot early, and his bat should improve the further removed from his injury, and expecting something like 20 homers and 10 steals moving forward sounds about right.
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Tyler Clippard: Early indications are Clippard is the favorite for saves in Toronto right now while Roberto Osuna is out, and it’s a situation that could prove long term. Clippard has pitched well this season, posting a 1.33 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP with 24 strikeouts over 20.1 innings, although it marks the first time he’s been any good in a few seasons. He isn’t throwing any harder than usual, but it looks like Clippard has the closer’s job (and he does miss bats with a 14.7 SwStr%), and he’s still available in more than half of leagues.
Dustin Fowler: He’s finally up with the A’s and should get regular at bats, albeit initially at the bottom of the order. Most projections are calling for modest production, but Fowler has good speed and should be added by those in need of stolen bases.
Matt Harvey: It was just one start that lasted only four innings, but Harvey allowed one baserunner and reached 96 mph with his fastball for the first time in a start this season while making his Reds debut Friday. It’s a poor setup in Cincinnati, other than the proverbial fresh start, but if Harvey’s velocity continues to creep back up, he’s certainly worth monitoring in deeper leagues. Meanwhile, teammate Scooter Gennett has homered in four straight games (racking up 10 RBI over that span), but he was likely already owned in most competitive leagues. Gennett continues to be underrated, as he’s up to 28 homers over 453 at bats versus righties since the beginning of last season.
Alex Reyes: He dominated during his latest rehab appearance (striking out six over 3.1 scoreless innings) as he gets closer to returning from Tommy John surgery. Reyes is eligible to come off the DL at the end of the month, and he’s owned in just 30 percent of leagues, so at minimum, make sure you don’t have an open DL spot available. Meanwhile, teammate Jack Flaherty is slated to get recalled and start next week. He has a 2.27 ERA with a 41:7 K:BB ratio over 31.2 innings in Triple-A this season and is also well worth adding.
J.A. Happ: Happ was dropped in one of my leagues following his second straight rough start, as he was pounded for seven runs over just 3.1 innings Thursday and sports a 6:6 K:BB ratio over his last two outings. Maybe owners in your league have remained more patient considering Happ’s strong start to 2018, but he’s up to a 4.80 ERA on the year, so it’s not shocking he’s showing up on drop lists. Happ’s HR/FB% (22.0) is more than double his career mark (10.6), and while surely part of that is him throwing his four-seamer up in the zone more, it’s also resulted in Happ ranking top-10 in K% (29.2) this season even after his recent hiccups, one spot below Luis Severino. Happ should be owned in all fantasy leagues.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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Closing Time: James Paxton is unhittable
• James Paxton was the highlight of Tuesday’s action, when he tossed a no-hitter against the Blue Jays. It was his first career complete game and took fewer than 100 pitches (and a great play by Kyle Seager). His last three pitches of the night were in the 98-100 mph range, as his fastball continues to be devastating. It would be fair to argue Paxton as a sell-high candidate, given his extensive injury history (last season marked the first he made more than 20 starts during his career, when he set a high in innings pitched with 136.0), the fact his ERA was just recently 5.12, and he’s now coming off the no-no, and I certainly won’t say not to shop him, but Paxton’s upside means you better get quite the return. His xwOBA (.263) last season was right in line with Chris Sale’s (.255) and Corey Kluber’s (.254), and he now has 33 strikeouts over his last three starts, so Paxton is fast approaching the top tier among fantasy starters.
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• Roberto Osuna has been placed on administrative leave following an arrest on assault charges, and it sounds like Toronto will use a committee to close in his place, making an obvious add tough. I’d probably go with Seung-hwan Oh first, but Ryan Tepera, Tyler Clippard and John Axford are other options.
• Matt Harvey was traded to the Reds for Devin Mesoraco, a deal that once would’ve been highly interesting yet sadly is anything but now. Speaking of fantasy downgrades, David Price has been scratched from Wednesday’s start to see a doctor about numbness in his pitching hand. He’s a candidate to be dropped in 12-team leagues at this point.
• Dylan Bundy became the first pitcher ever to allow four homers without recording an out, as he was blasted for seven earned runs. His Game Score (-19) was the second-worst since 1940. Just three starts ago, his ERA sat at 1.42 with a 1.11 WHIP, and he looked like a true breakout. Bundy’s ERA is now 5.31 thanks to one of the more brutal stretches in recent memory. He’s allowed nine home runs over his last nine innings…Jorge Soler had another big game and is batting .324/.436/.546 this season yet remains unowned in more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.
• Giancarlo Stanton hit two homers and stole base, while Luis Severino posted an 11:0 K:BB ratio over six scoreless innings against Boston. Treat Severino like a first round fantasy player moving forward…The Yankees are 16-1 over their last 17 games, and poor Jackie Bradley Jr. took this 103-mph fastball off his arm.
• Carlos Santana homered for the second straight game and has raised his OPS more than 100 points over the last five days, although he’s still hitting just .173 on the year. Santana’s exit velocity (90.1 mph) has been just fine, and only Yankee Stadium has boosted home runs more than Citizens Bank Park (23 percent) over the last three years, so his window to buy low is closing fast…Aaron Nola had 12 strikeouts and no walks in a night filled with dominant pitching performances.
• Luis Castillo picked up a win, holding the Mets to two runs over 5.2 innings. He has a 14:2 K:BB ratio over his last two starts and should continue to reward patient fantasy owners…Eugenio Suarez had another three hits and is up to 25 RBI over 20 games. His 179 wRC+ would be the third-best in MLB if he qualified, yet Suarez is available in more than 35 percent of leagues.
• Ronald Acuna hit an impressive homer, while opposing young starters Sean Newcomb and Blake Snell combined to allow just one run (and only 11 baserunners) over 12.1 innings. Newcomb is a must-add in any league in which he’s for some reason unowned (he’s extremely difficult to square up), while Snell has given up two runs or fewer in six straight starts and is fast becoming a star.
• Josh Hader tossed another two perfect innings, giving him a 1.64 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 46:6 K:BB ratio over 22.0 innings. It was also his fifth save of the year, all of which have been two+ innings, although opportunities may soon dry up with Corey Knebel set to return from the DL on Wednesday.
• Carl Edwards Jr. struck out the side and is currently sporting a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 30 strikeouts over 17.0 innings. He owns a 19.0 SwStr%, and while Brandon Morrow has pitched well (and picked up another save in a clean inning Tuesday), he has a pretty extensive injury history, and if he were to go down, Edwards Jr. would have significant fantasy value. He’s also dominant enough to be plenty helpful remaining in a setup role and is available in 70 percent of leagues.
• Corey Dickerson had another four hits and is up to .333/.371/.550 on the season. Dickerson, who was designated for assignment by the Rays during the offseason, is on pace to go .333-90-23-117-14, and the improvement has come from him making real changes at the plate.
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Fantasy Baseball Pickups: Walker Buehler and others to add
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Walker Buehler is proving why he’s considered one of baseball’s best pitching prospects (AP Photo).
Walker Buehler: He combined with three relievers to no-hit the Padres on Friday night, so Buehler is hardly a secret. The Dodgers’ top prospect may have a workload restriction (both on pitch counts and innings), but he’s now a fixture in Los Angeles’ rotation with Hyun-Jin Ryu sidelined indefinitely. He’s allowed just two runs with 19 strikeouts over three starts this year, and it’s safe to assume the Dodgers play better moving forward, so the rookie should be a help in wins even if he doesn’t last deep into games. Buehler’s best pitch is a four-seam fastball (he’s averaged 96.1 mph this year), yet he also induces a high groundball rate, which is a nice combination. He should be owned in 100 percent of leagues, yet it’s barely half right now.
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Matt Adams: He’s not guaranteed regular playing time when the Nationals get fully healthy, but who knows when/if that will happen, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to remove Adams from the lineup regardless. He has four homers over the past five games and has been hitting third or cleanup. Adams sports a .333/.441/.754 line over 57 at-bats against righties this season, while his xwOBA (.460) ranks No. 7, and both his average exit velocity (93.1 mph) and Brls/PA (10.4) rank top-30. Adams is eligible at 1B and OF and is barely owned in a third of leagues.
Nick Markakis: He lacks upside compared to his young teammates, but the boring veteran has homered in back-to-back games and is up to .333/.424/.545 on the year. He’ll surely regress, but Markakis’ K% and GB% are both way down, and his BB% is way up, and his BABIP (.330) isn’t that far off his career mark (.317). He’s increased his launch angle, and Markakis’ xwOBA (.407) ranks top-35 in MLB, so his hot start doesn’t appear to be a total fluke. He hits cleanup in a lineup that leads baseball in wRC+ (teams No. 2-7 are all in the American League), and SunTrust Park is helping hitters. Markakis is still available in more than 35 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Logan Morrison: He hit 38 homers last season over just 512 at-bats and is now playing in a much better park for hitters in Minnesota. Morrison is off to a dreadful start, batting just .187, but that’s why he’s so widely available. He’s still just 30 years old and has homered in consecutive games, so expect Morrison’s ownership to start to climb soon. His average exit velocity (90.0 mph) is actually higher this season compared to last (88.6).
Mitch Moreland: Like Morrison, Moreland is another first baseman with power upside (who’s also homered in back-to-back contests) readily available on most wavier wires, only he’s actually off to a hot start this season (.323/.384/.600). Moreland platoons, so he’s more valuable in daily transaction leagues, but he’s often hitting cleanup in arguably MLB’s best lineup when he does play.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: He’s just 19 years old, so this seems absurd in redraft formats, but it’s becoming clear Guerrero could successfully hit major league pitching if he were called up today. It remains unclear when he’ll get the opportunity, but Guerrero Jr. is going to be one of the most fun fantasy players to own over the next decade. He currently sports a 199 wRC+ in Double-A as a teenager.
Jorge Soler: Fantasy owners hoping for the long-awaited breakout after an encouraging spring were left disappointed yet again after Soler struggled mightily over the first few weeks of the season, but he’s turned it around in a big way since. The 26-year-old is hitting .357/.493/.696 with four homers over his last 56 at bats, and while he still strikes out too much, at least he’s back hitting the ball hard like he did when he first debuted. Soler is an intriguing flier with upside unowned in 70 percent of leagues.
Fernando Romero: He’s the Twins’ best pitching prospect who flashes a strong fastball, but his control needs work. Romero could get a chance to stick in Minnesota’s rotation, so give him a look if you need pitching help.
Jose Bautista: It’s possible he’s finished as a productive major leaguer, but Atlanta is going to give him an opportunity to act as their starting third baseman, and Bautista did manage 23 homers last season even in a down campaign. Especially given the situation in Atlanta, where Bautista will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that’s scored nearly 20 more runs than any other in the NL, he’s worth grabbing in deeper leagues.
Alen Hanson: It looks like he’s going to get a chance to be San Francisco’s new starting second baseman with Joe Panik out the next 6-8 weeks, as Kelby Tomlinson is better suited for a utility role. Hanson hit leadoff Friday, was raking in Triple-A and has good speed, so he’s an option for those in need of middle infield help.
Nick Kingham: After bringing a perfect game into the seventh inning during his debut, Kingham posted a 7:1 K:BB ratio in Milwaukee in his second start, so he’s going to get a chance to stay in Pittsburgh’s rotation. He’s worked on a new slider that could really be a game changer for him.
Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski
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