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Cliff Notes for last big weekend for Fantasy Football drafts of 2018

This is it, the last week or so of heavy duty fantasy football drafting. The offseason feels longer than ever — but it’s all a labor of love.

If you were headed into a draft in 30 minutes and just had a few moments for some advice, a tip, some “swing thoughts” from a caddy — here’s what I might tell you. (As always, your mileage will vary, you know your league better than I do, and of course it’s all contextual — that’s the understood disclaimer to any general discussion we have.)

If you’re looking for a deeper dive on the latest player and team situations, we have you covered there, too.

The Obvious Stuff 

• You have to know your rules backwards and forwards. This is so blatantly obvious, I feel sheepish even saying it. But if you’re in as many leagues as I am, it’s not always obvious what the rules are. Do your homework.

• A plan is good, but keep it in pencil. Stay flexible. The only unbreakable rule is no unbreakable rules.

• Listen to all you respect, but make your own decisions. It’s YOUR team. You’re the guy or girl who has to like it.

• My fantasy football experience goes back to the mid-90s. I’ve never seen a year with amazing quarterback depth like we have in 2018. If you’re in a start-one QB league, I beg you, play the value game. You will never feel “stuck” at quarterback.

• Sometimes a too-cute owner will stockpile quarterbacks with the idea that you can trade one from a position of strength. That almost never works, and the surplus is meekly cut soon thereafter.

• I’ll glance at snap counts and shares in-season, but what I mostly care about is how someone is used when they play. And when a part-timer starts to produce, it’s usually reasonable to expect a role increase. The takeaway: if someone is producing but on less-than-full snaps, I don’t care about the latter point. They’re producing.

The Green Bay Packers just gave Aaron Rodgers a massive contract, but that doesn’t mean you need to overpay for him or any quarterback in your fantasy draft. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps, File)

The Golden Rule

• Play fantasy football with a microscope, not a telescope. Play for Today. Look at the current slate, and short look-aheads. We’ll worry about the playoff weeks later (hopefully, when we’re 6-2 and sitting pretty.) It’s a mistake to try to win Week 15 in August. Win the first month. Win the first game. I can’t say this enough — so much is going to radically change. Live in the present.

General Thoughts

• Any strategy can work if you pick the right players, but I want one of my first two picks to be a running back, if possible and if reasonable.

• Wide receiver is deep as usual, but remember some of the guys who are easy to pick in the middle rounds might not be easy to start. Running back is my main priority at the top, but I don’t want to completely tank on receivers, either.

• I don’t draft into injury problems unless I get a significant discount. Some of you have heard me say this 1,000 times. It means, sadly, I do not have any recent Doug Baldwin shares. The market, at least where I have been, has not adjusted.

First thing you do for an online draft is scribble down all the names you think are grossly underranked. You could also queue them, but I don’t like to do too much of that, because I want the better talent visible in queue. Anyway, know where buried treasure is. Awareness is key.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) September 1, 2018

  • If an NFL team has a nothing set of tight ends, don’t let wide receiver gridlock spook you. The Lions are the cleanest example of this.

• If I’m starting any kind of a new league, it’s a multiple-flex league where one of those flexes can also be a quarterback. So, basically, a two-QB league. I also like leagues that start a bunch of players and have modest benches — the more difficult choices a league asks me to make, the more I like it. And with heavy starting requirements, one outlier performance (good or bad) doesn’t automatically swing the result.

• I want a fast start. I want leverage. I want to be aggressive early with waivers. And I view bye weeks as a fantastic opportunity to improve my winning chances, both short-term and long-term. (Your first extensive league audit should coincide with the first bye week, Week 4.)

• I like to put at least one “points scored” team in the playoffs, manually, no matter the won/loss record. Yes, Yahoo’s game allows the commish to do this.

[Join a Yahoo Fantasy Football league before the season: Sign up now for free]

• If you can find someone who shares your NFL world-view, partnering up is practically a cheat code. And you’ll always have someone else who cares about your team, and someone to share the grunt-work with. (If you’re not going to have a co-owner, at least identify 2-3 good friends you can discuss stuff with, privately. We all need someone to hash stuff out with; to talk us out of an occasional bad idea; to tell us the truth, as they see it, in blunt terms.)

• As soon as the real games start, I’ll divorce myself from preseason thoughts quickly. Consider the new information. Play the new position. Anchoring old opinions tied to dated information is the ultimate dinosaur move. Play For Today is as much about not looking back as it is not looking too far ahead.

Did I miss your favorite player or biggest conundrum? Hit me up on Twitter: @scott_pianowski

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football Expert Rankings: Get help for your draft

With Fantasy Football draft season in full swing, our group of analysts are continually working on their rankings, so you can be ready when you’re on the clock.

Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Antonio Brown are all easy top five choices, but a lot comes down to the type of format you play and where you are picking in the first round. Here is our current take on the fantasy draft landscape.

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football QB Rankings: How soon are you taking a signal-caller?

With the 2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football season in full swing, our group of analysts continue to update their quarterback rankings. There are some fresh faces, including Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo, among the familiar names. How soon are you taking a QB?

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football Receiver Rankings: Everyone chasing Antonio Brown

Our group of fantasy analysts have put together their receiver rankings for the upcoming NFL season. It’s hard to argue with Antonio Brown as the unanimous top wideout, but where to place other potential No. 1 receivers is a different story. We continue to examine the receiver hierarchy.

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Tight End Rankings: Gronk still roto gold

With the 2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football season in full swing, our group of analysts continue to work on their tight end rankings. Rob Gronkowski is still fantasy’s top-ranked tight end, but there are some strong candidates to also consider taking early in your draft.

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football rankings: Stacking the defenses

The Eagles are among the top fantasy defenses heading into the 2018 season. (AP)

With the 2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football season nearly here, our group of analysts continue to adjust their rankings. Which defenses will reign supreme? 

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football rankings: Breaking down the kickers

The New England Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski (3) will be among the top kickers off the board in 2018 fantasy drafts. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

With Yahoo Fantasy Football draft season here, our group of analysts continue to update their kicker rankings. Word of warning, don’t be the first player in your league to draft a kicker. It’s a position that can be managed on the waiver wire during the season. Save your kicker pick for the last round or two of your draft.

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football Rankings: Sorting through running back landscape

With the 2018 Yahoo Fantasy Football season around the corner, our group of analysts continue to tweak their running back rankings.

There’s a lot to like at the top with Todd Gurley and David Johnson among the options. There are also productive backs in new places like Carlos Hyde and Dion Lewis. Let’s stack the ball carriers.

[Fantasy Football rankings: Overall | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DST | K]

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2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

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Harrison Bader, back in our plans

Harrison Bader (left) is back in play for the Cardinals (AP Photo/Jim Young)

Tommy Pham came out of nowhere with the Cardinals in 2017, a waiver-wire wonder, a league-winner. And a year later, out of nowhere, he’s a deadline trade piece, a quick goodbye to a surprise breakout performer.

The Rays scored Pham on Tuesday, in exchange for three prospects and some international slot money. (I will be dangling international slot money in my fantasy negotiations all week.) Pham’s fantasy value stays close to lateral — Tampa Bay and St. Louis are just about even in OPS, though the Cardinals have outscored the Rays. Certainly, Tampa Bay is going to play Pham, that’s not an issue.

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The new fantasy intrigue centers on the St. Louis outfield — a regular spot opens with Pham’s departure. Harrison Bader could be a fun fantasy player down the stretch. Although his OPS+ is barely over the league average, courtesy of his .265/.338/.400 slash, he does have six homers and nine steals over 200 at-bats. Power-speed combos are much rarer than they used to be; heck, when any of my players steals a base, I want to start hugging strangers.

Bader probably will be the new center fielder, though contract-albatross Dexter Fowler could always slide over from right field. The Cardinals have also recalled Tyler O’Neill; he was tearing up the PCL for Triple-A Memphis (.311/.388/.711, 26 homers in 61 games).

If you’re in the mood to speculate, Bader and O’Neill are both owned in a mere three percent of Yahoo leagues; Bader is my first priority. Place your bets under the Archway.

Yahoo fantasy crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Bradley Evans, Matt Harmon, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski and Tank Williams

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Fantasy Football Booms/Busts 2018: The Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders coach Jon Gruden seems to want to take the team’s offense back in time, which is not a good sign for fantasy owners. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to the open of training camps, our resident fantasy football sickos, Brad Evans and Liz Loza, will profile their favorite booms/busts of every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Oldtown Raiders.

What geriatric player owns more BOOM potential: Marshawn Lynch, Jordy Nelson or WILDCARD?

Brad – JARED COOK. In 1998, “Armageddon” was the hot summer blockbuster, Next’s “Too Close” had people engaging in suggestive dance and then 44 year-old quarterback Steve DeBerg was still alive and kicking in the NFL. Though an eternity ago, Jon Gruden desires to live in decades long past by employing a smashmouth attack while completely turning a blind eye to the insightfulness of advanced analytics. His collection of thirty-somethings acquired this offseason rubber stamps this belief.

Chucky’s refusal to evolve makes Lynch interesting at his heavily slashed ADP, particularly behind an offensive line Pro Football Focus projects as the seventh-best in the league. But Cook owns the most profit potential.

Tight ends under Gruden during his previous stints with Oakland and Tampa were more blocking pieces, but it could be argued he never had a pass catcher the caliber of Cook. It’s probably why the veteran drew high praise from his head coach in OTAs and minicamp.

Quietly off a career-best 54 receptions, Cook could repeat or best his TE14 per game standing from 2017. He ranked No. 11 or better in total air yards, target distance and yards per target (8.0). His 57 percent success rate in 11 formations (3WR sets) also stood out. Again, if Gruden isn’t completely Spider2YBananas about running down opponent throats, Cook is an excellent low-dollar TE2 capable of 50-650-4.

Liz – DOUG MARTIN. He may still be under 30-years-old, but Martin deserves a mention here. With an ADP of 179.10 (RB54), he poses incredible fantasy value. The Raiders’ backfield figures to be used early and often, as Gruden has unabashedly advocated for the return to a run-first offense.

The former TV commentator also has close ties to Tampa Bay’s organization, which makes the addition of Martin especially intriguing. While Marshawn Lynch (who Gruden, in his first presser as coach of the Raiders, admitted to never having met) remains the favorite for starting duties, the vet is entering his age-thirty-two season. It makes sense then that Martin, who has reportedly demonstrated renewed “burst,” could push the former Seahawk for touches. #HiddenGem

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Is Amari Cooper OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED at his 37.9 (WR16) ADP?

Liz – OVERVALUED. I find it interesting that fantasy fans, whose memories are notoriously short, are so high on Cooper. Could it be Gruden’s endorsement of the ‘Bama prospect’s talent? Or maybe they’ve noted Cooper’s battles with the injury bug in 2017? Perhaps they were impressed by the 24-year-old’s 7 spikes last season? While those are noble reasons to project a bounce-back-season for the Raiders’ presumed No. 1 WR, they’re not enough to draft him inside the top-twenty players at the position. 

With a 62 percent catch rate (#39 according to Player Profiler) in 2016 and a sad 50 percent conversion rate in 2017 (#91), Cooper’s efficiency leaves a lot to be desired. Additionally, he’s not a prime red zone target, as evidenced by Michael Crabtree’s continued looks and success in the red area (for three consecutive seasons). And even if Jordy Nelson takes the defensive heat off of his younger teammate (which I don’t think is likely), the passing opportunities in Gruden’s offense will be severely limited. After all, this is a coach whose first free-agent moves included re-signing a blocking TE, adding a fullback, and proclaiming his desire to “take the game back to 1998.”

Brad – OVERVALUED. Lambasted incessantly by yours truly, Cooper was one of fantasy’s biggest busts in 2017. On a mediocre 20 percent of the Raiders’ target share he managed an eye-gouging 48-680-7 output. His consistent inability to shake defenders (WR49 in TGT separation), concentration issues (10 drops; 50 catch%) and minimal red-zone presence (three total catches) pushed many toward the bottle. He was terrible. His 40 percent success rate was equally comical (h/t Sharp Football). Don’t even attempt to sugarcoat it. 

Due to his baseline skills, young age (24 years old) and stand out 2015 and 2016, most fantasy owners have awarded Cooper a pass for last fall’s debacle, a rash assumption. Gruden hopes to shift Cooper about to minimize encounters with top DBs, but unless Jordy Nelson suddenly turns back the clock, the receiver should again draw top coverage more often than not. Oakland sports the seventh-toughest schedule among wide receivers.

Call me the captain of #TeamRaisins, but at the Round 3-4 turn in 12-team leagues, I prefer Stefon Diggs, Larry Fitzgerald or Josh Gordon ahead of the unnecessarily hyped Cooper.

TRUE or FALSE: Derek Carr turns a profit at his 148.1 ADP and finishes inside the position’s top-18?

Brad – FALSE. A puttering four-door Mitsubishi sedan with a McLaren price tag, Carr is an overpriced real-life quarterback with a pedestrian fantasy profile. The passer took a substantial step back in 2017 after a top-10 campaign the year prior. His TD percentage regressed for the third consecutive year and he exhibited uncomfortable dips in yards per attempt (6.8 in ’17), air yards per attempt (6.5) and multiple completion percentage categories. When considering he was kept clean on 72.8 percent of his dropbacks, his production was … umm … no bueno.

If Gruden gets his wish of instituting a largely conservative offense, another QB20-plus finish seems inevitable for Carr. Give me cheaper alternatives Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum and Eli Manning instead.

Liz – FALSE. Coming off a down year, it’s reasonable to expect some sort of bounce-back from Carr. Yet, a surge into the top-eighteen, especially in a year that possesses massive depth at the position, is unlikely.

Hampered by a back injury and let down by Cooper, Carr’s 2017 numbers took a down-turn. Notching just 22 passing scores and with a YPA of 6.8, the Raiders’ signal-caller closed out last season as fantasy’s QB19 overall. The prior year, however, Carr demonstrated promise, notching the seventh most TDs among QBs and averaging the fourteenth most fantasy points per week.

In 2016, then OC Bill Musgrave called the ninth most passing plays in the league, which gave Carr plenty of chances to produce. There’s no way he receives the same number of chances in Gruden’s scheme. The 27-year-old simply hasn’t proven efficient enough (career-high YPA of 7.0) to produce sans volume. He’s the Yahoo Fantasy consensus QB23 heading into 2018.

Bring the blitz on Twitter. Follow Brad (@YahooNoise) and Liz (@LizLoza_FF).

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The most popular Yahoo Fantasy Football team names are strokes of genius

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell, left, and Detroit Lions receiver Golden Tate are the inspiration for two of this year’s most popular fantasy team names. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Fantasy Football season is fast approaching, and that means it’s time for you to think about what to name your team. Last year featured plenty of terrific names — from pop-culture references to athlete name puns to much more — and the early returns from this year are promising, too.

Here’s how a portion of Yahoo Fantasy owners are naming their squads:

How do you pick the name of your fantasy team?

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) July 10, 2018

Of course, there’s a large crossover area that combined pop culture and player names. Here are some of the most popular names:

Pop culture references:

Game of Thrones references remain very popular. “A Team Has No Name” came in at the top last year. Arya Stark approves.

Also popular were Game of Jones, Demaryius Targaryen (a cross between Demaryius Thomas and Daenerys Targaryen), King of the North and Valyrian Steelers.

“The League” remains a fantasy favorite. The seven-season sitcom, which ran from 2009 to 2015, gave us plenty of great names, including: Chalupa Batman, Password is Taco, Taco Corp and the always-horrifying Mr. McGibblets, all of which were inside the top 200 most popular names in 2017.

Of course there are always plenty of other pop culture references, such as Victorious Secret, Prestige Worldwide, Laces Out, Straight Cash Homie, The Replacements, Sacks in the City, and even Big Baller Brand (LaVar, is that you?).

Player Reference

My Ball Zach Ertz (just like the Eagles tight end, this team name had a banner 2017) Golden Tate Warriors (someone’s going for their third title in four years, led by the Lions’ slot man) Le’Veon a Prayer (Bell’s our No. 2 RB overall player behind Todd Gurley) Hooked on a Thielen (with the Vikings receiver coming off a breakout season, this name is on the rise) The Brady Bunch and Brady Gaga Dezpacito (unfortunately we’re still looking for the song of the summer and Dez Bryant is still looking for a team) Dak to the Future and Baby Got Dak Stairway to Evans The Big Gronkowski (Gronk is our top tight end) Abdullah Oblongata

Some general guidelines

Naming a team shouldn’t be too difficult: Be funny but don’t be profane, and don’t make it too complicated. If you have to explain your team’s name to everyone, it’s not as funny as you think it is. And don’t be boring. First name’s team shouldn’t be what you’re rocking.

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Fantasy Baseball Pickups: Jackie Bradley, German Marquez and others to add

Boston Red Sox’s Jackie Bradley Jr. highlights this week’s look at fantasy pickups  (AP Photo).

Jackie Bradley Jr.: He sports an ugly .208/.299/.342 line on the season, which is why he’s available in more than 80 percent of Yahoo leagues. Bradley Jr. hits at the bottom of the order, but thanks to strong center field defense, he remains a regular in one of baseball’s best lineups in an extreme hitter’s park. Bradley Jr. is 28 years old, was a top-75 fantasy player just two seasons ago and already has a career-high 11 steals without getting caught (he owns a 89.1 percent career success rate). JBJ’s Hard Hit% (47.2) ranks No. 20 in MLB, so his .262 BABIP that’s well below his career mark (.293) looks especially fluky. He’s in store for a much better second half.

German Marquez: At first glance Marquez is a pitcher who owns a 4.81 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP who calls Coors Field home, so it makes perfect sense he’s available in nearly 90 percent of leagues. But Marquez is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a 22:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, and he becomes most interesting to fantasy owners who can platoon him solely during road starts. Marquez sports a 2.62 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP with 56 strikeouts over 55.0 innings away from Coors Field this season, where he also flashes a 19.3 K-BB% that would tie him with Aaron Nola for No. 17 among starters. The 23-year-old has averaged 95.2 mph this season, and Marquez is scheduled to open his second half with a start in Chase Field.

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Trevor Cahill: Another injury may very well be right around the corner, but Cahill has returned from his latest DL stint (non-arm related), and he’s still available in more than 80 percent of leagues. Cahill sports a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 50.2 innings this season, and his underlying stats are even more impressive. Cahill’s 13.1 SwStr% would tie him with Justin Verlander for 13th among starters if he qualified, and the A’s are playing much better of late.

Anibal Sanchez: He entered Friday’s start with a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP despite coming off back-to-back tough road assignments in Milwaukee and Yankee Stadium, yet fantasy owners remain skeptical of the 34-year-old, as he’s owned in just 42 percent of leagues. Sanchez’s .232 BABIP is unsustainable, but don’t chalk it all up to luck, as his Hard Hit% (25.9) is the second-lowest among 159 qualified starters, and the Braves field one of the best defenses in baseball.

Lou Trivino: He owns an 8:0 K:BB ratio over his last three appearances and a season’s ERA of 1.31. Trivino isn’t likely to keep up his pace (he’s on track to finish with 12 wins and seven saves in 71 innings), and he’s firmly behind Blake Treinen in Oakland’s pecking order for saves, but he’s been highly effective and keeps benefitting from pitching in such high leverage situations.

Victor Arano: Here’s another under owned (25 percent) reliever who could be out there for those searching for saves in deeper leagues, as Philadelphia continues to use a committee approach at the end of its bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez has been terrific (0.65 WHIP!), but Arano has three saves over the past 10 days.

Andrew Toles: He’s looking at regular playing time while Yasiel Puig is sidelined with an oblique strain, which should be at least a few weeks. Toles was hitting .326 at Triple-A and owns a career .351 OBP in the big leagues versus righties (191 at bats). He’s worth a look in deeper formats.

Follow the Yahoo fantasy baseball crew on Twitter: Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, and Scott Pianowski

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Fantasy Football Booms/Busts 2018: The Kansas City Chiefs

Will Patrick Mahomes and his canon catapult fantasy owners to victory? Yahoo Fanalysts Liz Loza and Brad Evans discuss. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to the open of training camps, our resident fantasy football sickos, Brad Evans and Liz Loza, will profile their favorite booms/busts of every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Nagy-less Chiefs of KC.

Fact or Fiction: Patrick Mahomes strings together a breakthrough campaign in his first full season as a starter and finishes inside the QB top-12.

Brad – FACT. Before Deshaun Watson morphed into Thanos and shattered all defenders into a million pixelated pieces, Mahomes sat atop dynasty and keeper-league wish lists. The Texas Tech product was my favorite passer among last year’s draft class. He’s athletic, mobile, fires the ball accurately all over the field and features a Brett Favre-like bazooka. Unlike other Red Raider alums before him, he’s far from a system-only quarterback. The kid owns major star qualities. His Week 17 audition against the Broncos (8.1 ypa, 62.9 completion%) was merely an appetizer.

Nestled into a fantasy Fertile Crescent, Mahomes is sure to yield many fruits. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Kareem Hunt as primary weapons, the QB is surrounded by speed, versatility and reliability. KC’s expected woeful execution on defense only increases the likelihood the sophomore surpasses 500 attempts. Knowing Mahomes’ skill set, I seriously doubt Andy Reid pigeon holes him into a conservative approach previously instituted with Alex Smith. Negative game scripts will force him to exercise his arm. Streak connections to blazers Hill and Watkins will be frequent. His interception tally could easily climb into the 15-18 range, but his opportunistic wheels will offset any mistakes.

Roughly 4,100 passing yards with 27 total touchdowns (three rushing TDs) and 300-plus rushing yards make up my fearless forecast. Not too shabby for a guy going around pick No. 128 overall. He’s my QB11, and that’s probably too bearish.

Liz – FICTION. Who doesn’t like an assertive QB with a big arm? Mahomes has fantastic tools, and offseason reports have been glowing. I am supremely confident that the young signal caller will flash, occasionally winning DFS enthusiasts big money. But do I see him producing on a week-in-and-week-out basis? Not yet.

The Chiefs offense is a run-focused operation. It always has been under Andy Reid. And with former pro running back (for nine seasons) and RB position coach (since 2013) Eric Bieniemy installed as the team’s new OC, that’s not likely to change… at least not right away.

This team is undergoing a transition. I understand that – on paper – the addition of Sammy Watkins, along with a depleted defense should enhance Mahomes’ appeal. But at such a deep position, it’s hard to imagine the greenhorn QB outpacing more established names like Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. He’s my QB17 heading into the fall.

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Will prized offseason acquisition Sammy Watkins BOOM or BUST at his 64.6 ADP (WR29)?

Liz – BORDERLINE-BUST. Watkins’ stock is on the rise. I like a lot of what I’m hearing about his connection with Mahomes and Reid’s desire to use him out of the slot. In fact, I bumped him up in my rankings last week. But I’m still worried about his opportunity share. Competing for looks along with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt, I don’t see the former Ram clearing 90 targets… which would likely keep him outside of the top-30 players at the position.

Brad – SEMI-BOOM. Admittedly, Watkins is a podiatrist’s dream. Over the course of his four-year career the hobbled receiver booked enough appointments for his M.D. to afford a luxury yacht. The man has missed 12 games as a pro. The downsides are apparent (Besides the injuries, his recent catch rates are abhorrent), but there’s reason to be optimistic.

Throughout OTAs and minicamp Watkins was a rat in the coaching staff’s laboratory. The experimental subject worked out of the slot, on the periphery, in motion … You name it. The intention was for him to get comfortable with the complexities of Reid’s West Coast brand. Liberated by the movement and determined to regain the limelight, Watkins is excited about the possibilities of resurrecting his career. When faced with exploitable linebacker and safety coverage he’s nearly unstoppable. It’s why the Chiefs want him to be more versatile. His quick-building rapport with Mahomes is just another piece falling into place.

Health, of course, is paramount for Watkins, but given his ridiculous speed and support around him, he very well could wreck the opposition. Can he return to 2015 territory (60-1047-9, WR16)? Knowing the mouths to feed in KC, probably not. However, 60 catches for 900-950 yards and 6-8 TDs are attainable. Achieve that and he would land at or near Robby Anderson’s WR21 overall position from 2017.

Among coveted names Tyreek Hill (28.1 ADP, WR11), Kareem Hunt (8.9, RB7) and Travis Kelce (27.7, TE2), who has the biggest BUST potential this fall at their respective price points?

Brad – TYREEK HILL. As numbers cruncher Graham Barfield intelligently espoused, fantasy owners are unwisely shelling out top dollar for Hill. To use a tequila comparison, he’s Patron, a well-marketed, decent-in-a-pinch brand that’s largely overpriced. What the speed demon accomplished last season was unmatched. He’s the only wide receiver this century to finish inside the top-10 while falling short of 22 percent in overall target share and 10 percent in red-zone target share. In layman’s terms, he achieved a lot with very little. Efficient? Sure. The man ranked inside the position’s top-10 in yards per target (11.2), fantasy points per target (2.29), target separation and contested catch rate last year. Sustainable? That’s very debatable.

With Watkins now in the mix, the competition for quarterback affections has increased dramatically. If the former Bill/Ram can stay healthy and return to his prior Pro Bowl form, Hill will regress. Something around 65-925-7 is most probable.

Liz – TYREEK HILL. Taking Hill in the second or third rounds is paying peak-value, which is not something I’d ever advocate. In order for Hill – who was the WR8 overall last year – to return on his early-round investment he’d need to duplicate his 2017 numbers.

That seems highly unlikely, not just because I expect Watkins to eat into Hill’s workload, but because Hill is a weekly boom or bust prospect. In fact, before Andy Reid handed the clipboard over to Matt Nagy, Hill produced top-twelve numbers in only two efforts (Weeks 1 and 7). For the four weeks that Nagy was in charge, Hill fell inside the top-twelve producers at the position three times. That’s some crazy high-priced volatility. Pass.

Bring the blitz on Twitter. Follow Brad (@YahooNoise) and Liz (@LizLoza_FF).

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Maximizing fantasy values when you draft in .5 and PPR leagues

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams presents more fantasy value at his current ADP than some running backs going earlier in .5 PPR drafts. (AP Photo/Don Wright)

Fantasy Football drafts are a combination of calculating maximum points with each pick and the expected depth of the various positions. To help guide us I used the Pro Football Reference database and adapted it to Yahoo’s new default half-point PPR scoring. Since 2012, I calculated the points on average for the top-scoring player at each position, as well as the fifth, 10th, 15th, 20th and so on.

It turns out that owners early this draft season are not acting entirely rational when they’re on the clock. They are leaving the higher probability of more wide receiver points on the table to venture too deeply into the running back pool for players who can only return the value if they beat ADP. That’s drafting uphill. Taking the receiver with those picks is drafting downhill because wideouts in that range will beat the running backs if both finish in actual positional points in accordance with where they’re being drafted.

Yes, leaving running backs on the board in the second and third rounds frightens us because it feels like RBs 20 to 40 are hopeless reaches. But is that true and if so to what extent? What kind of drop off has there been, actually? In other words, is getting, say, the 30th most points with the 30th running back drafted good enough to win in this half-point scoring format or is the loss of points too steep?

Here are the results by position (slot averages end of season scoring 2012-2017):

Quarterbacks points

QB1: 346 points QB5: 300 QB10: 271 QB15: 248

Obviously quarterback points don’t fluctuate between standard, .5 PPR or PPR, but the context with other positions is important. We’ll deal with the strategy of the QB position and whether and how long you can wait in the coming weeks.

Running back points

RB1: 333 RB5: 250 RB10: 202 RB15: 178 RB20: 161 RB25: 140 RB30: 126 RB35: 117 RB40: 109

Receiver points

WR1: 284 WR5: 243 WR10: 216 WR15: 194 WR20: 177 WR25: 163 WR30: 154 WR35: 144 WR40: 137 WR45: 127 WR50: 120 WR55: 111

Tight End points

TE1: 212 points TE5: 167 TE10: 129 TE15: 106

So what are the takeaways from this data as it relates to the current draft season? How can we use it?

Yahoo drafters are wise to draft a running back first overall and to exhaust the pool of possible RB1s at the top of the draft. But by taking the 10th running back (who on average happens at this writing to be Dalvin Cook) at 17th overall, they must have the back finish the year better than RB10 (on average 202 points in .5 PPR) to make that pick work.

So unless you think you’re getting a steal at running back, the play in the second round is to draft wide receivers. So far this year, the 10th WR is available through the end of the second round and has averaged 216 points in .5 PPR.

Receivers also have less injury risk and less projectable touch/target separation at that point of the draft. So I think they are better bets even assuming a perfect projection, which is plus-14 points for the WR10. Additionally, you need to assess whether the WR10 has a better chance to finish as the WR5 than the RB10 does RB5. I believe the answer is yes but we can put names on these players: RB10 is Dalvin Cook and WR10 is Davante Adams. Who has a better chance to finish five slots higher? Give me Adams, but in fairness that’s 48 points for Cook (250 vs. 202) and just 27 (243 vs. 216) on average for Adams.

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The receiver pool as it relates to historic scoring at the various slots degrades more slowly than running backs: Running back actual scoring declines from RB10 to RB30 about 43% more than at WR. This has been interpreted to mean that we can afford to wait longer to draft a wide receiver than a running back.

But we can also start up to twice as many wide receivers (if you have a three-receiver league plus a flex). So rather than believing you can wait for receivers in this ADP range, I take this to mean that we should be drafting them. (Another key point here is that this data is telling you that even in half-point PPR, your default plan should be to flex a wide receiver whether you’re in a two or three WR league — that’s the cheapest way to get more points out of the flex.)

My reading of this data is that it’s perfectly fine to pick three backs from running backs 25-to-40 range of your draft. Ideally, you’re combining them with one of the five or six backs that could conceivably be an RB1 or close to it. But even if you have to start two of these guys and they just finish in scoring where you drafted them, they’ll post enough points if you bank three or four wideouts who match or beat their expected points. And that’s assuming the backs you pick finish the year where you drafted them. People who draft wide receivers aggressively and those who draft running backs aggressively do seem to agree that beating ADP with wide receivers is easier — it’s just that the floor for the wide receiver picks is also higher.

Yahoo leagues are taking the top three tight ends, who all could be plausible TE1s, around WR10 in accordance with the data. Some owners are ruling this out — preferring to focus on RBs and WRs in these spots. And Yahoo drafters are also appropriately drafting the pool of plausible TE5s, who have beaten WR25. If like me you think this group of plausible TE5s extends a few more players until about the 10th round, where George Kittle goes, that gets you all the way to WR46. I think Kittle (or Jordan Reed or Trey Burton) has a better chance of finishing TE5 than the WR46 (Danny Amendola) has of finishing in the year about 20 slots higher.

Understanding the drop in production at positions as you get further in your draft should help you maximize points and give you an advantage over your opponents.

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New faces in new places: Aaron Rodgers welcomes back old friend

Aaron Rodgers welcomes back old offensive coordinator Joe Philbin to Green Bay. (AP Photo/Bob Leverone)

There are seven new head coaches in place this offseason, and six of them are bringing new offensive coordinators with them. That means new concepts and playbooks and, most importantly in the fantasy world, opportunities for offensive skill position players. New coaches provide plenty of food for thought as the season approaches, and how their players fit in their systems goes a long way toward making a successful team. In this series, we’ll take a look at some of the most intriguing players/new coach tandems who hope to take advantage of new roles in 2018.

It’s early 2012 and Joe Philbin is a hot commodity on the head coach market. As offensive coordinator, he helped guide the Packers to a Super Bowl championship in 2011, and Green Bay is fresh off a 15-1 regular season. The Dolphins tab Philbin as their newest head coach, and over the next three-and-a-quarter seasons, Miami improves vastly on offense. But the defense falls off, the Dolphins never make the playoffs, and by 2016 he’s an offensive line coach in Indianapolis, a coaching role he hasn’t held since a decade before. It was a far cry from leading one of the best offenses in the NFL.

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Regardless, Philbin is back in Green Bay after two years with the Colts. And offensively, much is the same — Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are running the show. As Philbin put it in his introductory press conference, he aims to make McCarthy “look like the smartest play-caller in the National Football League.”

1. It’s Jimmy Graham time in Green Bay

Like his first tenure in Green Bay, Philbin will not be calling the plays. That responsibility falls on McCarthy. But that doesn’t mean Philbin won’t have major influence on the offense as a whole, and that means a greater focus on tight ends than we’ve seen in years past, especially with Pro Bowler Jimmy Graham in the fold. Graham is one of the most impactful free agent movers this offseason.

Rodgers, who is the epitome of consistent excellence, has been the league’s best when targeting slot and outside wide receivers but fifth when targeting tight ends, per Pro Football Focus. Graham is a big, athletic player who won’t be asked to block as much as he was with the Seahawks. Expect a big year for Graham, perhaps the best tight end Rodgers has had.

Since Philbin’s departure, only one Packers tight end — Richard Rodgers in 2015 — has finished in the top 10 in targets. Coincidentally, he’s the last Green Bay tight end to finish in the top 10 in fantasy points. Philbin has had Jermichael Finley in Green Bay and Charles Clay and Anthony Fasano in Miami, so Graham will benefit most from Philbin’s return.

2. Who steps up behind Davante Adams?

Davante Adams broke out last season, and with Jordy Nelson in Oakland, Adams is absolutely in for a massive year. Who steps up behind him, though remains a question. Geronimo Allison had some nice moments last year, and Randall Cobb has terrific chemistry with Rodgers, even though he’s not quite what he was early in his career. Behind those two, the team has Trevor Davis and then six wideouts who are either rookies or second-year players.

Cobb should be a name to keep in mind, mostly because he’ll turn 28 just before the start of the season, so his decline isn’t as imminent as some make it seem. He broke out in 2012 — his second year in the league and Philbin’s last in Green Bay — with an 80/954/8 season. Cobb was then injured in 2013 before an outstanding 2014. Philbin knows how to get slot men involved — Jarvis Landry broke out under him in Miami — and Cobb averaged 5.5 catches per game with a healthy Rodgers last year, compared to just 3.7 without him.

3. Ty Montgomery should move around a lot

Two years ago, with the Packers’ backfield devastated by injuries, Montgomery broke out as a running back wearing the unusual number of 88. He collected 805 yards from scrimmage and averaged 5.9 yards per carry. He was a prime candidate to be a fantasy stud last year. Instead, he struggled to stay healthy with an increased workload in the backfield and played only eight games.

With Aaron Jones (suspended the first two games of the season) and Jamaal Williams in the backfield this year, Montgomery should have a more reasonable workload for his slight frame. Under Philbin, Rodgers had considerable success throwing the ball to James Starks and Ryan Grant, and Montgomery is terrific in space: He posted the third-best juke rate in 2016, per Player Profiler. And given the Packers’ lack of proven receivers, he could move all around the formation.

Other New faces in new places: Coaching changes could get Marcus Mariota back on track

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Closing Time: Buster Posey's missing power

San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey has fantasy owners searching for power (AP Photo).

• Buster Posey was never a huge power guy (he’s never hit 25 homers in a season during his career and hasn’t reached 20 since 2014), but it’s all but evaporated this season, as he’s gone yard just once over his past 112 at bats and is slugging .404 on the year (his lowest since 2011). He had a nice walk-off hit Wednesday but entered as the No. 343 ranked fantasy player. The Giants have even tinkered with batting him second in the lineup recently, a spot where his low K% makes sense but his slow base running and propensity to ground into double plays don’t. 

He’ll hit in the middle of San Francisco’s mediocre lineup regardless, and Posey’s underwhelming counting stats (he’s on pace to record just 48 RBI) are especially troubling given the usually extremely pitcher-friendly AT&T Park has benefitted hitters more in 2018, something that figures to regress. His pitch framing numbers are way down as well, so it’s safe to say Posey is in decline. Here are his HR/FB rates since 2012, respectively: 18.8, 10.0, 13.4, 11.0, 9.8, 8.4, 6.3. That’s not an encouraging trend (although he has hit more Barrels this season (16) than he did all of last (15), for what it’s worth). Posey is still a good hitter, and he’s the rare fantasy catcher who helps batting average, but the utter lack of power really limits the former MVP’s upside. He’s skipping the All-Star game in order to receive an injection in his hip that’s bothered him all season, so hopefully that helps Posey bounce back in the second half.

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• Carlos Rodon picked up a win by holding the Cardinals scoreless over 7.1 innings Wednesday and now sits with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after seven starts since returning from shoulder surgery. He has control issues, and wins won’t be easy pitching for the White Sox, but Rodon was the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft and owns a career 10.0 SwStr%. He’s just 20 percent owned in Yahoo leagues but expect that number to climb after Wednesday’s outing.

• Quick Hits: A Shelby Miller start in Coors Field screamed disaster, and the Rockies didn’t disappoint by scoring 19 runs. Daniel Descalso entered in relief with one out in the fourth, making it the earliest a position player has pitched in a game since 1979. Carlos Gonzalez (who entered averaging the longest HR distance (425 ft) in MLB) and Ian Desmond combined for three homers and 11 RBI…Not to be outdone, Cleveland also scored 19 runs Wednesday, thanks in part to Jason Kipnis, who homered twice and reached base eight times over the three-game series against the Reds. Maybe Kipnis’ bat is finally awakening from a season long slump, and he’s out there in 70 percent of leagues. Few parks in baseball boost run scoring like Progressive Field.

Jacob deGrom took yet another no-decision Wednesday despite tossing eight scoreless innings. After 18 starts, he has a 1.68 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a 5-4 record to show for it…Greg Bird homered and recorded four RBI for the second straight game. He’s still available in more than 60 percent of leagues…Right after I hyped him, Lance McCullers was hit hard Wednesday, allowing six runs over just four innings versus the A’s. He walked five batters while fanning only one and goes into the All-Star break on a down note…Brandon Nimmo had seen his OPS fall from 1.013 to .878 over the last three weeks before his pinch-hit, walk-off homer Wednesday…Marco Gonzalez impressed again while winning his third straight start and now sports a 2.35 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over his last 11 outings (72.2 innings). He’s up to 10 wins on the season…I’m beginning to think Garrett Richards might be injury prone.

Will Smith tossed another two scoreless innings and now sits with a 0.95 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 38 strikeouts over 28.1 innings. He’s also currently acting as the Giants’ closer, and I won’t stop writing about him until his ownership surpasses 40 percent…Chris Sale turned in his fifth straight performance with at least 11 strikeouts and one walk or fewer (becoming the first pitcher ever to do so) and sports a 0.94 ERA with 78 Ks over his last seven starts (48.0 innings). Sale is appointment viewing these days, and his career has been remarkable given he’s always pitched in the American League and in hitter’s parks (it’s crazy he’s younger than Chris Archer). Sale should be a top-five pick in fantasy drafts next year.

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Juggernaut Index, No. 22: Jacksonville is a league power, light on fantasy assets

Jacksonville Jaguars fans have plenty of reasons to high-five entering 2018. This is a terrific team, if not quite a fantasy juggernaut. (Bob Mack/The Florida Times-Union via AP)

Let’s never forget how close we were to experiencing a Super Bowl matchup involving Blake Bortles in a starring role. Jacksonville actually held a 20-10 lead over New England in the fourth quarter of the AFC title game last January. If that score would have held, it might have upended much of what you think you know about the importance of quarterbacks in today’s NFL.

The Jaguars ultimately did not hold off the Patriots, as everyone knows, so we were spared the weirdness of seeing Bortles on football’s biggest stage. Jacksonville is very clearly a team that wins on the strength of its league-best defense and relentless ground game, not because of its golden armed quarterback. Over Bortles’ four NFL seasons, he’s thrown 90 touchdown passes and turned the ball over 79 times (64 INTs). His career completion percentage is 59.1 and his passer rating is 80.8. He is, objectively, an ordinary quarterback by NFL standards. Even when Bortles was allegedly good, back in 2015, he was sneaky-bad. Understandably, his team was linked to various free agent QBs in the offseason.

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Bortles was given a three-year, $54 million deal in the offseason, however, so Jacksonville is committed to him, at least for another season or two. This team has found a way to limit his impact on winning and losing; he’s not going to put the ball in the air 600-plus times. The Jaguars ran the ball exactly as often as they threw it last season (527 times), and that balanced approach brought them within a few minutes of Super Bowl LII. Expect more of the same in 2018.

The Jaguars somehow made it to the AFC championship game with this man at the controls of the offense. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson, File)

Jacksonville’s receiving corps failed to produce a top-40 fantasy wideout in standard formats last season and no player on the team reached 100 targets. Don’t look to this crew for your WR3s. Marqise Lee led the Jaguars in receptions, catching 56 balls for 702 yards and three spikes. (Yawn.) He’s fine — roster-worthy, but certainly not an ideal starter. Donte Moncrief signed a one-year deal with Jacksonville in the offseason, and he’s the favorite to start opposite Lee. (Deeper yawn.) Second-year receivers Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook each had their moments last year — Westbrook was a preseason legend — and rookie second-rounder D.J. Chark is an interesting developmental prospect. Chark is a size/speed combo receiver who crushed the combine (4.34 speed, 40-inch vertical).

Realistically, no one mentioned in the previous paragraph is likely to serve as an every-week starter on a league-winning fantasy roster. The Jags’ receiving depth chart can help fantasy owners navigate the bye weeks, but don’t expect a breakout star. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if newly acquired tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins were to lead this team in receiving TDs in 2018. ASJ has reportedly clicked with Bortles. Given the depth at the tight end position, however, Seferian-Jenkins certainly isn’t a must-draft option. He’s just another flier.

Leonard Fournette and his fantasy investors had plenty to celebrate in 2017. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Leonard Fournette is exactly who we thought he was

OK, now we’ve arrived at the fun stuff. Jacksonville led the NFL in rushing last season, averaging 141.4 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Fournette was a hammer, running for 1040 yards and nine scores over 13 games. He received at least 15 touches in every game he played (and 20 touches in 10 of 13), so the team’s commitment to him remained consistent. Fournette is the offensive centerpiece for the Jaguars, a foundational back. He’s an old school power runner in an old school ground game. It’s important to note that he also delivered 36 receptions for 302 yards on 48 targets, so he’s not a guy we need to seriously downgrade in PPR.

Fournette has reportedly shed a few pounds, hoping to play this season at the weight he maintained at LSU:

“I feel like I play my best at what I played at in college — 223, 224 [pounds],” Fournette said after practice. “I put in my best at that weight and why not [get back there]? I don’t want to be average, I want to be above average. I want to be the greatest one to play this game.”

If we get a healthy season from Fournette, he can challenge for the rushing title. His talent is well established and there’s no questioning Jacksonville’s desire to run the ball. Fournette is fully approved at his late first-round ADP.

T.J. Yeldon ran well last season as Fournette’s understudy/change-of-pace, averaging 5.2 YPC. If you’re the handcuffing type, feel free to snag him.

Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey was one of several Jaguars Pro Bowlers. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)

Jacksonville’s defense was a buzzsaw

We don’t typically focus on team defenses in this (largely meaningless) fantasy index, but this group deserves unusual attention. Jacksonville’s D was phenomenal. Entering last season, we knew it had a chance to be great, but, well … wow. Six defensive players from this team made the Pro Bowl, which is of course absurd. The Jaguars ranked at or near the top of the league in everything that matters to fantasy owners: yards against (286.1), scoring (16.8), sacks (55), interceptions (21), fumbles (12) and defensive TDs (7).

Naturally, Jacksonville is the consensus No. 1 D/ST for 2018. The Vikes, Rams and Eagles look great, but the Jaguars are vicious. Telvin Smith, Calais Campbell, Barry Church and Myles Jack are the top IDPs here; Jalen Ramsey is as good as it gets at DB. Draft this D with total confidence.

2017 Offensive Stats & Ranks

Points per game – 26.1 (fifth in NFL) Pass YPG – 224.6 (17) Rush YPG – 141.4 (1) Yards per play – 5.4 (13) Plays per game – 66.8 (4)

Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) Buffalo, 31) Miami, 30) NY Jets, 29) Baltimore, 28) Oakland, 27) Cleveland, 26) Indianapolis, 25) Washington, 24) Chicago, 23) Tennessee, 22) Jacksonville

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