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[kevinpolowy]

2018 Golden Globes: Get our instant predictions

Meryl Streep in ‘The Post’ (Fox)

Nominations for the 2018 Golden Globes greeted us bright and early this morning, and there were plenty of plot twists afoot. Given the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s questionable voting body, it’s always debatable how much a Globe nomination (or win) impacts the Oscars picture, but there’s no doubt that the Globes — the second-most-viewed for screen junkies after the Academy Awards — demands attention. With predictable frontrunners like The Post and The Shape of Water, and not-so-predictable contenders like All the Money in the World and The Greatest Showman, all in play, here’s our early take on who will win the major movies categories.

Best Picture, Drama

Nominees: Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is one of the most wide open Best Picture races we’ve seen in years. Any of these five films could take the biggest prize, as each has their proponents. Dunkirk and The Post, however, seem like the two early favorites, and most conventional choices, with Call Me by Your Name lurking as the potential upset.

Our Instant Prediction: The Post

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

Nominees: The Disaster Artist Get Out The Greatest Showman I, Tonya Lady Bird

The Musical/Comedy race is easier to narrow down, with two frontrunners in Get Out and Lady Bird (although both Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig were snubbed in the director category). Expect Get Out to follow in the dubious path of The Martian as the latest non-musical or comedy to win Best Musical or Comedy at the Globes.

Our Instant Prediction: Get Out

Best Director

Nominees: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World Steven Spielberg, The Post

It’s hard to gauge Ridley Scott’s chances here, considering the HFPA are the only folks known to have screened his freshly reshot All the Money in the World. As in the Best Picture race, del Toro has a good shot given The Shape of Water leads all film nominations with seven. And you can’t count out heavyweight helmers Christopher Nolan and Steven Spielberg. We’ve got a tough one to call.

Our Instant Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Best Actress, Drama

Nominees: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Meryl Streep, The Post Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

All the marquee categories thus far offer incredibly tight races. I’ll call surprise 2009 winner Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) the early favorite for her extraordinary turn as a mute who falls for a monster in the Globes’ most nominated film, Shape of Water. But don’t overlook two of the greatest in the game: Meryl Streep (for those keeping score at home, she’s up to 31 career Golden Globe noms) and Frances McDormand (who gives her best performance since her Globe-winning turn in Fargo).

Our Instant Prediction: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water 

Best Actor, Drama

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Tom Hanks, The Post Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Finally! An easy race to call. An unrecognizable Gary Oldman gives the performance of a lifetime as the world-changing Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, and has been the prohibitive favorite from the first trailer… Don’t sleep on the revelatory Chalamet, who announced his considerable talents in Call Me by Your Name, or eight-time nominee/two-time winner Day-Lewis for what’s believed to be his final film role in Phantom Thread.

Our Instant Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

It’s a generational battle among three twentysomethings (Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, Emma Stone), a septuagenarian (Helen Mirren), and octogenarian (Judi Dench). The edge goes to the youngsters, particularly the previously twice-nominated Ronan, who looks primed to make an Oscar run for her stunning work in the coming-of-age rumination Lady Bird. And there’s another contender who could skate onto the podium, it would be Robbie for her assured take on Tonya Harding in I, Tonya.

Our Instant Prediction: Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman James Franco, The Disaster Artist Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

For as much as it isn’t a musical or comedy, Get Out does give Daniel Kaluuya a chance to shine in this category for his largely unheralded work. Ansel Elgort is a major surprise for Baby Driver, likely heisting a nomination from The Big Sick breakout (and cowriter) Kumail Nanjiani. Ultimately, though, it’s James Franco’s race to lose for his transformative performance as midnight movie hero Tommy Wiseau in the hilarious and charming The Disaster Artist.

Our Instant Prediction: James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Hong Chau, Downsizing Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Octavia Spencer is the only one in the bunch to have received Globe nominations in the past for film acting (she won for The Help), although Janney has five for TV (no wins), Metcalf has two for TV (no wins), and Blige was previously nominated for Best Original Song (for The Help, which she didn’t win). This race will likely come down to the early Oscar favorite Metcalf and potential upsetter Janney, who play two troubled but very different moms in Lady Bird and I, Tonya, respectively.

Our Instant Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

With no one outside the HFPA having seen All the Money in the World, it’s tough to peg the performance of Plummer (who replaced Kevin Spacey after multiple sexual misconduct allegations). Nonetheless, Willem Dafoe has emerged as the heavy favorite through the early awards season for his celebrated work in The Florida Project.

Our Instant Prediction: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Read more on Yahoo Entertainment:

2018 Golden Globes Snubs and Surprises: From ‘Beauty and the Beast’ to ‘Veep’ to ‘Shape’ Sweep

Golden Globes Nominations: ‘The Shape Of Water’ & ‘The Post’ Tops In Film, ‘Big Little Lies’ Leads TV

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