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shanroeform · 3 years

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Leave Her to Brew: an Early Analysis of the 2021 Champion Chase

Around this time a few years ago I was on Koh Phangan, a Thai island famous for its Full Moon Parties. During one of the hazy nights I spent on the island, I was approached by a promoter advertising a Muay Thai tournament that he promised would be a spectacular display of combat between world-class performers, all accompanied by free drinks. As any western tourist with no experience of these kind of things, a love of sport and the smell of several Sangsoms on their breath would, I accepted without a second thought.

What followed can only be described as the most compelling lawsuit for false advertisement the courts of Thailand will ever see. In truth, I should have been suspicious when I looked around the venue and saw no locals, no TV cameras, not even a big screen. Somehow, this world-class event had evaded the attention of the Muay Thai hardcore and instead attracted a crowd consisting solely of Brits, Irish and Australians, all of whom had just stumbled back from an all-day boat party and somehow managed to remember the sporting spectacle that was due to be held in their honour.

The faces in the audience were, unbelievably, nothing in comparison to those in the ring. Despite my promoter friend’s earnest promises of the most deadly Muay Thai operators in this part of the world, the only local taking part had a severe limp and had clearly fallen out of love with the game (imagine an 18-year-old Cue Card being forced to carry top weight in a Southwell handicap).

The rest of the competition was made up of other Brits, Irish and Australians who were in an even worse state than their watching friends; they looked as though they had been on yesterday’s boat party and had not gone to bed since. One of these intrepid fighters ended up winning by default, with the local hero forced to withdraw injured (although he was still more than capable of winning with his hands tied behind his back) and the other tourists practically knocking themselves out.

Watching the Champion Chase earlier this year, I was forcibly reminded of this ignominious evening. We had been promised the greatest Queen Mother in years - Altior, the two-time champion and four-time Festival winner, would defend his crown against the unbeaten* great Irish hope Chacun Pour Soi and a Defi Du Seuil who had swept all before him so far that season. As I saw first Altior and then Chacun Pour Soi drop out of the race, before Defi Du Seuil slipped further and further back in running, the smell of cheap vodka and vomit rose unbidden in my nose and dragged me back to the disappointment of that Koh Phangan night.

It’s not that I didn’t enjoy seeing Politologue win - like the “Muay Thai” I ended up watching, it was a thoroughly entertaining spectacle once you accepted it for what it was and I’m very glad I saw it. However, the race was simply not what I had built myself up for and it is hard to accept compensation in place of a once in a lifetime experience (just ask any of the dopes who paid over $1000 to see Blink-182 at Fyre Festival).

I came into this National Hunt season hoping that the 2021 Champion Chase would make up for last year’s non-event. Our opening act began this weekend with the 2020 Arkle winner Put The Kettle On taking on Defi Du Seuil in the Shloer Chase, to be followed by Altior’s return in next month’s Tingle Creek and Chacun Pour Soi’s reappearance on the other side of the Irish Sea (he is entered in the John Durkan at the start of December, but the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase over two miles on 27 December seems more likely). Unfortunately, whilst we were treated to a thrilling performance by Put The Kettle On, our starter was marred by the sight of Defi Du Seuil being pulled up before the last.

This disappointing showing from the Phillip Hobbs horse prompts an early re-think of the 2021 Champion Chase (the bright side of this being that at least, instead of being crushed all in one go by disappointment of the eve of the race, we can accept its slow suffocation throughout the season and make arrangements accordingly). Thankfully, Defi Du Seuil is reportedly OK after his failure to complete - however, after the second worrying run in succession for the former Triumph Hurdle winner, there may now be concerns as to whether he will even run in the two mile showpiece next year, let alone threaten to win it.

That the gelding is showing signs of potential wear and tear may not be too surprising given that, for a seven-year-old, he is fairly heavily raced. Having started his career aged just three in France, the son of Voix Du Nord has now had 22 runs in under five years. To put this into context, Altior, at ten, has raced just twice more than Defi Du Seuil, and Chacun Pour Soi has seen a racecourse only eight times despite being a year older than his compatriot. Like the kid at your school who was given his first beer before he started his GCSEs, Defi Du Seuil peaked early and may now forever be chasing his glory days.

It is not just the volume of racing which has left its mark on the French bred, but also the intensity of his efforts. Since Defi’s juvenile season, he has not finished further than 3.5 lengths ahead of second place in any of his 6 victories and has also been beaten by less than 4.5 lengths on two occasions. We all remember the McManus horse’s titanic clashes with Un De Sceaux last season, both run on ground as fit for a war reenactment as for a horse race, as well as his trilogy with Lostintranslation in his novice campaign. As fans we love these sort of races, but they scar horses - Kell Brook may have claimed he was better than ever going into his fight with Terence Crawford on Saturday night, but, after having both eye sockets shattered on previous occasions, it transpired that such comments didn’t defend him against being knocked out.

Defi Du Seuil’s time at the top of the two mile division may therefore be dwindling to an end. This is not an unfamiliar pattern amongst top class French-bred two mile chasers: Master Minded ran his last race aged eight and Douvan has raced just five times since turning seven in 2017. Whether he still has enough left to make the 2021 Champion Chase a spectacle is questionable, even aside from valid questions about whether he was ever good enough to threaten Altior - is beating a 12-year-old Un De Sceaux by under three lengths a strong enough piece of form to justify the challenge?

Fans of JP McManus’ gelding could take comfort in Defi Du Seuil’s poor re-appearance record. He has lost first time out in two of the previous three seasons, including finishing dead last in a November Grade Two over two miles in his novice chase season before going on to win the then-JLT. Phillip Hobbs is also in poor form, having had just two winners from 35 runners in the 14 days preceding Defi’s return on Saturday. If you want to find it, there is evidence to convince yourself that he retains the ability to win the Champion Chase come March. Just remember, if you do, that some people manage to persuade themselves that the world is flat, the American election was rigged and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a good football manager.

There is not much more to write about Chacun Pour Soi since my preview of last season’s Champion Chase which, strangely, weakens any early case against him winning the 2021 edition further. Willie Mullins’ hope did not show up to Cheltenham in March and appears to be somewhat fragile - whilst he only suffered a stone bruise and would likely have raced at Punchestown, the fact remains that Chacun Pour Soi has now run just four times since arriving at Closutton in December 2016. Indeed, at the moment, I would rather bet that the eight-year-old won’t run in the Champion Chase than I would on him winning the thing. Douvan is my favourite horse of all time and I have simply been hurt too much to be sucked in by his successor. Chacun will have to make a bigger romantic gesture than Justin Timberlake’s flash mob in Friends With Benefits to get me on side.

Chacun’s absence in March also leaves the question of how he will handle the Festival to fester for another year. He has never run at Prestbury Park and we’re left to ponder whether he will deal with the stiff track and the extreme undulations, let alone the unique atmosphere, after only four runs under the care of Mullins. This could be picking at hairs in light of his win at the Dublin Racing (on a stiff enough track at Leopardstown) and Punchestown (which does undulate) Festivals. However, for a horse whose record doesn’t inspire confidence that he will turn up at all, a best price of 9/2 is short enough for an unproven Cheltenham racer who could plausibly disagree with the Festival on the day.

If you believe Nicky Henderson, he has “never seen [Altior] move better” (RacingTV Stable Tour). We have heard similar rhetoric from the six-time champion trainer throughout Altior’s career, but there comes a point where this simply stops being true. Patricia Pugh’s horse will be 11 by the time the Champion Chase is run and you have to question whether he retains his full powers.

The last 11-year-old winner of the race was Moscow Flyer in 2005 and, to find the only other horse old enough to start secondary school to have won the Champion Chase, you have to go back to 1976 and Skymas. Now listen, I love mocking the #trendslads as much as anyone and if I’ve ever seen a horse to laugh at this stat it is Altior - he has embarrassed me in front of my family too many times not to hesitate here and he did sprint away from Sceau Royal in rather familiar style last time out at Newbury.

However, at this stage of his career, it is valid to question whether Altior is capable of repeating his Festival heroics for a fifth time. Pugh’s horse showed the first cracks of fragility last season, losing his unbeaten record to Cyrname in a race which Henderson described as “unavoidable” and which I call “utterly stupid from both Nicky and Paul to go life and death in the trenches in November”. He was then absent until February, missing an (allegedly) intended appointment over three miles on Boxing Day, before pulling a sickie on the eve of the Festival. This was the first time in five seasons that Altior had missed Cheltenham and, in his advancing age, it would not be too difficult to foresee this once again.

Aside from the above, Altior’s winning margin in the 2019 Champion Chase was just 1.75 lengths - rumour has it that the Star Sports betting stand is still stained from the excited mess which Ben made as they came over the last, his dream of getting Henderson’s horse beaten finally within touching distance. In comparison, Altior’s previous Festival wins were by seven, six and seven lengths and Politologue had never gotten within breathing distance of the High Chaparral gelding. If you consider these potentially waning powers alongside Altior’s age and apparent increasing susceptibility to injury, not to mention Cyrname’s revelation that he can in fact be beaten, a case can be made for vulnerability at best and a non-appearance at worst.

In my preview of last season’s Champion Chase, I compared the race to the Expendables film franchise - with trailers full of superstars and an end product that Adam Sandler may as well have acted in. Well, we’re now back for the third edition, which unfortunately received the worst reviews yet: as Rolling Stone said in its one-star write-up, “The Expendables 3, trading on our affection for action stars of the past, has officially worn out its already shaky welcome”. In short, a Champion Chase which at first glance looks so full of dependable quality could, in similar fashion, very well fall apart once more - whether this is in the months building up to it or on the day itself.

Could this leave the race open for good old Politologue once more? I would be the last person to put you off a 16-1 poke on a proven Grade One horse, especially in a race like this. However, Paul Nicholls’ horse has consistently fallen short against the best of the best and, having written a rather pessimistic article so far, I have to retain enough optimism to hope that a proper superstar can emerge to outshadow the defending champion. Christmas is on the way, after all.

Greaneteen has been touted as a potential threat to the established order by better judges than myself - Tony Calvin previously advised an early Tingle Creek and potential Champion Chase bet, and he is due to put it up to Altior in the Sandown showpiece having won the Haldon Gold Cup following Calvin’s article. Greaneteen is now a best price 20/1 for the Festival (having been as big as 40s before his Exeter victory) but in two runs round Cheltenham he has finished only 13th and fourth. His fourth place was in March’s Grand Annual carrying 11-7 which, with respect, the owner of a championship quality horse would expect to be low enough to carry to victory (see Frodon shouldering 11-12 to win over three miles at the Open Meeting last month). His win in the Haldon Gold Cup saw him win by a neck whilst carrying just 11-3 (albeit more comfortably than this sounds) - Moonlighter, in second, was rated 142 (now 147) and has won just three of 16 races. Not one for me, unfortunately.

The 2018-19 season saw Le Richebourg emerge as a potential two mile superstar, winning three out of three races over the distance (including two Grade Ones) and finishing a very close second to the gallant Delta Work over two and a half. He would surely have won the Arkle had he stayed well, but Joseph O’Brien’s horse has now been absent with injury since February 2019. Whilst there’s a gap in the market, Le Richebourg may no longer fit through it after so long on the sidelines.

Other potential hopefuls include Duc Des Genievres, who won the aforementioned Arkle in 2019 and performed strongly on his reappearance this weekend, and Douvan (just let me dream). There is far too much against either of these horses for me to suggest that they could be a potential Champion Chase winner in 2021, however (at least in public - I will keep myself warm with my duvet of Douvan dockets dating back to 2017).

We are left, then, to turn to the usual point of respite when confronted with such a predicament - the Kettle.

Put The Kettle On was thrilling at Cheltenham this weekend when battling past a rejuvenated Duc Des Genievres in the Shloer Chase and she clearly loves racing at Prestbury Park. She had to show tremendous bravery to force past Paul Nicholls’ horse, who had led from the off and at one point established a rather wide gap between himself and the mare. However, like a local at their favourite pub shooing an out of towner out of their usual seat, Henry De Bromhead’s charge made her presence known to secure her third win in as many outings under the gaze of Cleeve Hill.

This performance was even more impressive given the list of factors which went against her going into the race. De Bromhead’s horses are in terrible form, having won just twice in 42 outings in the two weeks before the race, and Put The Kettle On was having her first run since the March. This was indeed only her second run in a year, and, having been active throughout last summer, it would have been fair to expect the mare to have needed the run. On top of this, whilst all of Stowaway’s daughter’s wins here have come on soft ground, jockey Aidan Coleman suggested that she did not enjoy the boggy conditions: “She hated the ground and was never happy the whole way. It's a testament to her ability and attitude because it was a hard race.”

With all things considered, it was difficult not to be taken by the performance. There are of course lingering doubts - the close proximity of Duc Des Genievres, who has not won since his Arkle victory, could lead to suspicion, and some will argue that Put The Kettle On is yet to face a genuine on-form Grade One animal given Defi Du Seuil’s non-performance. However, Saturday’s conditions were a near replication of the Duc’s greatest race, in which he achieved a rating of 163, and he looked near his best following the switch to Paul Nicholls’ yard. The winning distance of 1.25 lengths also does not do the mare justice, as she was handily on top at the finishing post.

With this performance in mind, along with the fragility of the “big three” in the market, I think Put The Kettle On offers terrific value at a best-price of 10/1 for the Champion Chase. There is a good chance that she arrives at the race with at least one of the triumvirate absent, and, even if all are present, it is not difficult to envisage any of them encountering problems in running. 10/1 for a proven Cheltenham performer, who has transferred her novice ability into open company, goes on any ground, is open to improvement aged just six and who may find herself facing little competition is too big for me and, in a worst case scenario where she finds nothing else and all three of the big guns return to their peak, is a fantastic each way play.

Having won at Cheltenham in November 2019 before being put away until her Arkle win, it may be that Put The Kettle On is left to brew until the 2021 Champion Chase. Whilst in this scenario her price would not fall of her own making, the 10/1 could rapidly disappear if further problems emerge with Altior and Chacun Pour Soi (Defi Du Seuil is already as big as 20/1) and none of the other potential candidates step up.

However, it would be a shame not to see her until March - she is a fantastic, brave horse who could quickly become a people’s favourite if she continues in the same vein as her last three runs. I hope she causes her price to collapse all on her own.

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*In Britain and Ireland - he was beaten as a 3 & 4 year-old in France.

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brianjaeger · 6 years

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2018 Academy Award Best Picture Nominees Guide For Those Who Haven’t Actually Watched Them

Time sure does fly, and here we are again - it’s time for the Oscars! For 90 years, the Academy Awards have provided us a totally unbiased chance to have Hollywood tell us what art is worthy of our time. Of all the cinematic art created within the last year, we’ll finally be told which art was truly the best art and who the single best people are who participated in that art! As an added bonus, they’ll also tell us which people died since last year who we should give a shit about! (Spoiler alert - it’s not your dumb ass non-actress grandma!)

The return of the Oscars also means that a bunch of movies came out that I was supposed to see - but haven’t! So, without further ado, here is what I THINK this year’s Best Picture nominees are about based on their titles and scant knowledge of the films’ themes - with the bonus of a few comments that you can make at your Oscars parties so everyone thinks you’re a cinematic genius.

Here we go!

The Shape of Water

Guillermo del Toro is back at it again, this time the acclaimed director found an old notebook from 5th grade that said, “Fishman - A fish dude lives in a tank and some lady finds him. *Work on narrative.” In this magical dose of cinematic wonder, we get to see the reason why your mother always warned you not to touch yourself in the ocean. She was right!