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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: New Injuries to Key Players, Thoughts on Zibanejad, Patrick, Marchessault (Jan 20)

The Avalanche scored a pile of goals (seven, to be exact) on the combination of Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell (mainly Quick). Mikko Rantanen scored two of the six goals in the second period, but he left Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury. The word is that Rantanen is expected to be back for Monday’s game and the decision to pull him was mainly precautionary.

Mikko Rantanen was held out for precautionary reasons. He is set to play Monday vs. Nashville. #Avs #GoAvsGo

— Ryan S. Clark (@ryan_s_clark) January 19, 2019

The news isn’t so good for Erik Johnson, who also left Saturday’s game and expected to be out indefinitely.

Another Erik was a surprise late scratch on Saturday, even though he hadn’t practiced in about a week. Erik Karlsson did not suit up for Saturday’s game against Tampa Bay with what could be an injury to his left side. The Sharks have two more games (Monday and Tuesday) before the All-Star Game, so keep an eye on Karlsson’s status, although the injury is not believed to be serious. Karlsson is on the Pacific Division roster for the All-Star Game, which will be held in San Jose.

Erik Karlsson, not in the SJ lineup tonight, is nursing an injury…not believed to be serious

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) January 20, 2019

Karlsson has also reportedly begun contract talks with the Sharks.

With two goals and an assist on Saturday, Steven Stamkos is on a six-game point streak. He also has 14 points (4g-10a) in nine games since the new year.

Yet more injury news, unfortunately: Tuukka Rask had to be helped off the ice after a collision near the end of the first period with Filip Chytil immediately after the Ranger scored. This didn’t look good for Rask, who the Bruins have confirmed has a concussion. The Bruins will immediately start their bye week/All-Star break after this game, so it’s possible that Rask won’t miss any games because the Bruins play their next game in ten days.

Tuukka Rask leaves the game after collision with Chytil #NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/OUIZar8nmc

— Marina Molnar (@mkmolnar) January 20, 2019

Mika Zibanejad has been piling on the points lately. He’s on a five-game point streak, which includes five goals and seven points and a plus-4 over his last three games. This includes the two goals he scored on Saturday. If your league still counts game-winning goals (a stat I want no part of in my leagues), then Zibanejad has scored those in three consecutive games. If he stays healthy, he’s on pace for a 75-point season, which has to be considered a breakout for a player who has never scored more than 51 points in a season. The Rangers have him signed for three more years after this one, so he seems like a safe bet to stay put at the deadline. That will mean continued top-line minutes.

The Midseason Guide is available now! Get yours today!

Part of the Ducks’ shakeup this week involved the recalls of prospects Max Jones and Troy Terry. It just so happened that Terry scored both his first NHL goal and added his first NHL assist on Saturday afternoon. The punchless Ducks (30th in the NHL with 2.35 GF/GP) could use Terry’s offense, as he now appears to be NHL ready (37 points in 32 AHL games). Terry lined up with Jones and recently reacquired Derek Grant (who scored the goal that Terry assisted on), giving the Ducks what is truly a brand new line. That might be what the Ducks have needed, as they have now won two games in a row after losing 12 in a row before that.

As is often the case with young goalies, Mackenzie Blackwood has started to struggle. Over his last three games he has a 3.76 GAA and .845 SV%. Keith Kinkaid probably isn’t going to run with the starting goaltending job, so expect Blackwood to continue to be given opportunities to find the form he displayed just after the holiday break.

Jordan Binnington has literally come out of nowhere to be one of January’s hottest goalies. With a 28-save win against the Senators, Binnington now has wins in four of his last five games. He has now at least forced a timeshare with the struggling Jake Allen, although there is definitely a case where he should be the outright starter in the short term while the Blues try to climb back into the playoff race. Ville Husso was assumed to be the goalie-in-waiting for this team, but Binnington has posted better AHL numbers this season. He is deserving of this opportunity and making the most of it.

Never mind a sophomore slump, Nolan Patrick was in a deep freeze. The 2017 second overall pick had gone 24 games – a span of two months – without even scoring a goal. Then Patrick smashed the ice block with a two-goal, two-assist effort on Monday, which he had followed up with another two goals on Saturday. Here is his talent on display on one of his goals:

Nolan Patrick is filthy pic.twitter.com/U7weaImfNp

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) January 20, 2019

There are two things to remember with Patrick:

He was a strong second-half performer last season (21 points in 33 games post-All Star vs. 9 points in 40 games pre-All Star). If you believe in those splits, he’s a great second-half sleeper. I’ve already told people that who have asked me for a potential second-half sleeper.

He is only 20 years old and is only in his second NHL season, so keeper leagues should not be thinking about bailing. Sure, the fifth overall pick in that draft (Elias Pettersson) appears to be further along, but if GMs could do that draft over again they’d no doubt have the gifted Pettersson as the first overall pick. That’s not to take anything away from Patrick, and if you believe in the magical fourth season he’s still two years away.

The Wild didn’t go “wild” in the scoring department on Saturday, but they scored enough to defeat the Blue Jackets by a score of 2-1. One particular line of interest featured two new members of the Wild: Pontus Aberg and Victor Rask, the latter who was playing in his first game with the Wild. Both Aberg and Rask assisted on the game-winning goal scored by new linemate Zach Parise, who has now reached 20 goals. This line combination could be positive for Aberg and Rask while giving the Wild three solid scoring lines. Aberg is already on his fourth NHL team in three seasons, while Rask was a huge disappointment this season (6 points in 26 games in Carolina), so both players clearly have something to prove here.

With a goal and an assist on Saturday, Johnny Gaudreau is riding an 11-game point streak in which he has 23 points (10g-13a). Johnny Hockey is now second in NHL scoring with 74 points (29g-45a) and at this point should be generating some Hart Trophy attention and a key reason that the Flames are at the top of the Western Conference. At least Brian Burke prefers Gaudreau over Connor McDavid for the Hart.

Another key reason for the Flames’ success: Mark Giordano, who scored another goal and assist. He’s on his own point streak at seven games with 12 points over that span. And yes, there’s serious Norris Trophy discussion, as there should be.

Milan Lucic, who had two goals in the entire calendar year of 2018, already has four goals in 2019 (over his last six games). Interested? Lucic entered the game with 165 hits, good for third in the entire NHL. So if he’s actually managed to find his scoring touch again, he could be of some value in leagues that count hits. He’s going to have to shoot the puck more – as in a lot more. Lucic entered this game with exactly one shot per game (47 shots in 47 games).

There was lots of discussion about Jesse Puljujarvi’s icetime during the Hockey Night broadcast tonight. The 2016 fourth overall pick ended up playing a strong game, recording two assists in just 10:43 of icetime. If the Oilers do in fact trade him, it seems clear given their trade history that they won’t recoup full value from him being a fourth overall pick. They’re desperate to make the playoffs, but trading away a 20-year-old power forward (who normally take even longer to develop) seems like an impulsive decision.

I’ll admit I’d been a bit underwhelmed with Jonathan Marchessault’s production entering this game (31 points in 49 games), especially since I’d used a draft pick just outside the top 50 for his services. If you felt the same way, you’ll be relieved to see Marchessault score a hat trick against the Penguins on Saturday. Marchessault entered this game with just one point in his previous seven games, so you could argue that he was due. His 182 shots places him in the top 10 in that category, although even after his hat trick his 17 goals still doesn’t even place him in the top 50 in that category. Expect a stronger second half from him.

For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-new-injuries-to-key-players-thoughts-on-zibanejad-patrick-marchessault/

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts

Every Sunday, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's ‘Daily Ramblings’.

Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. All I’ve wanted from Anaheim for basically a year now is a line of Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ondrej Kase. They wouldn’t do it (much) last year with Corey Perry around, and this year’s been difficult on the team injury-wise. Kase started the season out of the lineup and lately it’s been Rakell. We have no firm timeline on Rakell’s return, but when he does, I would like to see these three together.

Over the last few seasons, when those three have skated together, they’ve been utterly dominant, putting up an expected goal share near 60 percent (per Corsica). Having those three together would allow the checking line of Andrew Cogliano – Ryan Kesler – Jakob Silfverberg to stay together while giving Adam Henrique a scoring winger when Perry returns. Something like this:

Rakell – Getzlaf – Kase Pontus Aberg – Henrique – Perry Cogliano – Kesler – Silfverberg

Not bad?

Of course, I say all this as a greedy owner of Kase in all my leagues. Please, Santa. (dec14)

2. One trend I’m really enjoying is the fact that there are a large group of high-scoring defensemen. Sure, we’re not going to have five or six reach 80 points, but right now it’s pretty fun seeing Morgan Rielly, Thomas Chabot, John Carlson, and Mark Giordano each with 30 points or more and each with more points than games played.

Thirteen defensemen with at least 16 games played have a points-per-game average of 0.75 or higher. Eight (50 or more games) did so last year, with the highest mark being 0.87. That was Erik Karlsson, who is not among this year’s 12, but I think will be. Karlsson has 14 points in his last 15 contests. (dec10)

3. I would like to see Dallas trade for Jeff Carter. It probably won’t be long until the fire sale in Los Angeles begins and Carter’s name is floated constantly. I know he’s off to a bad start this year but the same could be said about his entire team. He’s getting to the latter stages of his NHL career but his cap hit is very reasonable at just over $5.2-million and the Stars have both Jason Spezza and Marc Methot coming off the books after this season. It would give them a very good second-line center that the team hasn’t really had in three years. They could then justifiably move one of Jamie Benn or Alex Radulov to the second line, giving them a balanced top-six for the first time in, well, a really long time. (dec14)

4. I’ve been thinking that as much as fantasy hockey owners have drooled at Colton Parayko’s size and shot, maybe it’s time to accept that what we’ve seen from Parayko is what we’re going to get, and nothing more. For all that perceived upside, the big St. Louis defenseman has never scored more than 35 points in a season, although he’s been remarkably consistent around that total over the past three seasons.

So, Parayko scoring two goals while logging 28 minutes on Friday isn’t great timing for me to make my point. Since Alex Pietrangelo’s injury, Parayko has averaged nearly 26 minutes per game, even though he has scored only one point (another goal) over the previous five games that Petro has been out of the lineup. Both the skills and the opportunity are there, even if the Blues are as much of a mess as any team right now. Turning from fantasy to reality, I could see NHL teams engaging in a serious bidding war for Parayko’s services. (dec15)

5. If Flyers’ coach Dave Hakstol does lose his job, he can rightfully say that the team’s goaltending situation didn’t do him any favors.

Before you get excited about a Carter Hart callup, note that he is still getting used to the AHL (2.98 GAA, .903 SV%). For the sake of Hart’s long-term confidence, it’s probably best not to bring him into a situation as volatile as what the Flyers have going on.

6. Hakstol won’t be able to say he’s been able to rely on Shayne Gostisbehere, either. Ghost simply isn’t going to come anywhere close to his 65 points from last season. For a player who fires a ton of shots from the point on the power play, he has completely dried up with no goals over his last 15 games and counting. His minus-18 further deflates his value.

In case you’re thinking that this is a perfect opportunity to try Ivan Provorov on PP1, he has struggled himself this season as well (11 points in 31 games, a similar total to Ghost). We’ll have to keep an eye on how a potential coaching change could affect the fantasy values of these two blueliners. It can’t really make things any worse, as the Flyers have just one power-play goal over their last 11 games. (dec16)

7. If your league is one of the few that counts shorthanded goals, Mark Giordano will have helped you win that category this week. Gio scored his second shorthanded goal in as many games on Saturday, giving him a four-game point streak in which he has lit it up for nine points.

After back-to-back sub-40-point seasons, Giordano’s point-per-game performance must count as one of the season’s biggest surprises. The Flames’ offense may have something to do with that, as the team’s offense has improved from 2.63 GF/GP last season to 3.48 GF/GP this season. (dec16)

8. Alex Ovechkin didn’t record another hat trick on Saturday. But he did score another goal (his 29th) while taking eight shots on goal and logging 25:34 in ice time. He’s currently riding a six-game goal-scoring streak, plus a 14-game point run. (dec16)

If you read the latest 31 Thoughts or listened to the 31 Thoughts Podcast, you probably have an opinion on whether Ovechkin can eventually catch Wayne Gretzky in career goals. Those who think he can are probably in the minority, but at the very least we can conclude that at age 33 there hasn’t been much slowdown. For now, we can safely assume that another 50-goal season is well within reach, while he continues to pile on the goals, shots, and hits. (dec15)

9. Sure, we know that Connor McDavid will do his thing, like he did on Friday (two goals and an assist). Same with Leon Draisaitl (three assists). But, with another goal on Friday, Alex Chiasson now has a career-high 14 goals with five points over his last five games riding shotgun on this top line. He is currently benefiting from a 30 percent shooting accuracy. The goals may eventually turn into assists should he stay on this line, though. Keep in mind he’s only 15 percent owned while playing on a line with the NHL’s best player. (dec15)

10. Ryan Hartman should get to 20 goals this year, which is a quietly nice season for a middle-six winger. For fantasy hockey, though, the Predators’ forward is not hitting nearly as much as he has in previous seasons, having been credited with just 26 in 33 games. Each of his first two seasons saw him cruise past 110 hits. That doesn’t seem feasible this year. If the trade-off is more scoring, though, I’m sure fantasy owners will take it. (dec14)

JOIN THE ACTION: Rick Roos is rolling again with his annual Cage Match Tournament. Check out the forums to vote for ‘The New Normal’ edition.

11. I was very high on Arizona’a Clayton Keller coming into the year and it’s not quite panning out. I mean, it’s all relative, right. He’s on a 61-point pace right now. Realistically, for a 20-year old, that’s a good season. I thought it’d be a lot higher, though. I guess he’s only one hot streak away from being a 70-point pace player; just unfortunate we haven’t really seen it yet. (dec14)

12. It’s a small thing, but I hope Habs’ Charles Hudon gets another crack with the Canadiens. He’s been sitting in the press box an awful lot for them lately. I’ve reached the point with him where I’ve accepted that he probably won’t be more than a third/fourth-line winger, but I think he’s a better third/fourth line winger than some of the players the Habs trot out regularly.

Maybe he doesn’t have the punchiness of Nicolas Deslauriers, or the ‘je ne sais quoi’ of Kenny Agostino (literally, I don’t know what they see in him), but Hudon could be a guy you can get 10-15 goals from on the fourth line with secondary power play time. That has value. More value than, say, 10 fights. (dec14)

13. Canucks’ Brock Boeser has missed some games but he’s played 22 and has scored just one power play goal. Allow me to repeat: the guy who scored 12 PP goals in his first 71 career games has one through 22 outings this season. His shot rates are consistent with his prior performances. So, what’s the deal?

Boeser has 11 goals and 19 points in 22 games. He’s landing three shots on goal per game and the data about shots and shot location on the PP seem normal. In one-year leagues, maybe it’s worth looking to see if the Boeser owner is seeing the shine wear off a little bit. Not that it’s a buy-low situation, but a chance to buy cheaper than he should be. Just a thought. (dec13)

Resting his groin injury for most of November has turned out to be beneficial for Boeser. With another goal on Saturday, Boeser now has five goals over his last four games and appears to be back to last season's form. (dec16)

14. Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad is currently on pace for 71 points, which would smash is previous career-best of 51, the only time he’s cracked 50 points. He’s on that pace despite shooting 10.3 percent, the lowest for him in any season since the lockout year. Over those five seasons, he averaged 12 percent. Why the drop in shooting percentage? The power play.

This may surprise a few people, but Zibanejad had 14 power play goals last year and he’s not on pace for even half that many this year with just three so far. I expect there will be a huge power play scoring binge coming over the final 50 games. As in, don’t be surprised if he scores 10-plus PP goals the rest of the season.

It’s another buying opportunity. Zibanejad’s production is still pretty good, and he is averaging over three shots on goal per game. It never hurts to ask the Zibanejad owner in your league what it might take to acquire him. (dec13)

15. Even though Daniel Sprong is only 21, it seemed like we had waited an eternity for him to find his way onto the Pittsburgh Penguins and make an impact playing on a line with one or more of their big guns. While that won’t happen, it doesn’t mean that it’s time to give up on him. Now in a situation with a team that really needs him, Sprong has scored three goals in five games as a Duck, including both of the team’s goals on Saturday. His ice time is also up over six minutes per game to 14 minutes, which tells you how little he had been playing in Pittsburgh. (dec16)

16. The requisite Elias Pettersson tidbit. Heading into last Tuesday’s contests, Pettersson had 15 goals and 30 points in 26 career games. Here’s a look at some other current stars and their totals after 26 contests:

Evgeni Malkin – 30 Alex Ovechkin – 29 Sidney Crosby – 28 Connor McDavid – 28 Patrick Kane – 27 Patrik Laine – 21 Johnny Gaudreau – 20 Auston Matthews – 20

(dec12)

17. It was reported that Ryan Miller will miss six weeks with a sprained MCL. The Ducks wasted no time in claiming Chad Johnson off of waivers from St Louis to provide some support to John Gibson.

Jordan Binnington is the new back-up in St. Louis. The 25-year-old has a single NHL game on his resume. He managed to wrestle the starting gig in the American league from Ville Husso, who has been projected as the up-and-comer for a few seasons. With the way the Blues are playing these days, it is conceivable that Binnington sees some ice, but the results will likely be very muted. (dec12)

18. I had an interesting conversation a few weeks ago about defensemen with a couple friends. Basically, how many defensemen can we rely upon in fantasy? I don’t mean defensemen you can trot out for 200 blocked shots or whatever. I mean defensemen from whom you know you’re going to get 24 minutes a game, a couple shots, and top PP minutes. Not very many.

For that reason, I generally treat the bottom of my defense rosters in non-dynasty leagues as a revolving door. I have staples, of course, like Roman Josi or Victor Hedman, but once we get to guys like Shea Theodore, Mikhail Sergachev, or Jake Muzzin, they could find themselves on and off my roster two or three times a year. It’s about dumping them at their highest value and looking for the next guy, ad infinitum. (dec11)

19. Trading away John Carlson just because he’s due to regress a bit isn’t the point here. The point is to recognize an asset whose value will decline over the next four months compared to present-day value in order to fill holes elsewhere on a roster with a package that should return more value over those four months.

Again, keep in mind that I’m not saying to run out and trade Carlson. What I’m saying is to not expect him to be a top-3 fantasy defenseman as he’s been so far. If you can trade him as a top-3 defenseman and get back comparable future value to help fill gaps on your roster, then you do it. It’s all about the needs and the return, not necessarily about the player himself. (dec11)

20. It appears I kick off Ramblings every week with goalie talk, but it’s the most important position in fantasy hockey and it’s produced some of the weirdest results so far. Which makes it the most frustrating – and it’s a frustrating position during the best of times. In case you missed it other weeks, my mantra has been “follow the contract”, the starter will eventually get his starts back almost always unless he truly, truly sucks.

But Blues’ Jake Allen is the one starter whose terrible start I have the least faith in turning around. And for a bit there, it looked as though even he was rebounding.

Allen is signed for another two years at $4.35 million per, he’s a high draft pick (34th overall), and he’s an organization-developed talent. He’s the Golden Boy. I say this because he got 83 starts over the last 14 and a half months and despite sucking, he still gets thrown out there. (dec10)

Have a good week, folks!!

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-54/

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